Economy:
According to ADP, private sector increased by 428K between July and August on a seasonally adjusted basis. ADP National Employment Report | August 2020 1.17M was the consensus estimate. Private payrolls grow by 428,000 but miss expectations, ADP report says ADP reported that only 212K private sector jobs were added in July. The estimated job losses in March and April was 19.711M. ADP estimates that there was a 8.466M gain in private sector jobs, concentrated in May and June since April.
The BLS August employment report claimed that the economy added 1.4M jobs, with the unemployment rate falling to 8.4%. Employment Situation Summary The rise in government employment was "largely" due to temporary hiring related to the 2020 Census. Average hourly earnings rose 11 cents. The June and July numbers were revised down by a combined 39,000. The U-6 number fell to 14.2% from July's 16.5%. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
I am becoming increasingly skeptical of BLS claims since they are substantially inconsistent with other data including the ADP reports and BLS data on initial claims for unemployment insurance. The job market is unquestionably improving since April. The question is whether the BLS is overestimating new job creation.
Initial jobless claims fall 130,000 to 881,000, but drop tied to change in statistical method - MarketWatch
Inflation will become a serious headwind on a vaccine: Peter Boockvar The Bond Ghouls see no problematic inflation emerging based on the pricing of TIPs of 5 year TIPs. As of last Friday's close, the breakeven inflation rate was 1.57%, the annual average CPI over the next five years that would be necessary for the buyer of the 5 year TIP to breakeven with the buyer of the 5 year nominal treasury.
At the RNC convention, Larry Kudlow, the media personality who is Donald's chief economic advisor, falsely claimed that Donald inherited a stagnant economy on the verge of recession. Republican Convention Night 2 - FactCheck.org Real GDP growth was reported at +2.07% in Obama's last year. The projection for 2020 is at -9.14%. US Real GDP Growth Rate by Year
It needs to emphasized that a substantial amount of U.S. GDP growth is being generated by the federal government's deficit spending. Before the onset of the pandemic, Donald was running the U.S. annual deficit at closet to $1 trillion. Spending $1 trillion in borrowed money each year is going to create growth. The question is whether the long term trade off is worth the short term benefit.
Renters in U.S. cannot be evicted through the end of the year due to coronavirus, CDC order states - MarketWatch The ostensible basis for this order is that renters, when evicted, may become homeless or live in congregate settings where they may become infected or infect others with the coronavirus.
France launches €100 billion stimulus plan to avoid ‘economic collapse.’ It may also help Macron get re-elected - MarketWatch
Japan-Style Stagnation Could Be the Penalty for the U.S.’s Whopping Debt | Barron's
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Markets and Market Commentary:
These 74 stocks in the S&P 500 hit all-time records on Wednesday- MarketWatch
The pros are getting ready for a market crash — retail investors, not so much, top economist warns - MarketWatch
France launches €100 billion stimulus plan to avoid ‘economic collapse.’ It may also help Macron get re-elected - MarketWatch
Japan-Style Stagnation Could Be the Penalty for the U.S.’s Whopping Debt | Barron's
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Markets and Market Commentary:
These 74 stocks in the S&P 500 hit all-time records on Wednesday- MarketWatch
The pros are getting ready for a market crash — retail investors, not so much, top economist warns - MarketWatch
The dollar's fall is likely to continue -- here's why you can thank the Fed - MarketWatch
Australian dollar Up almost 30% since March amid coronavirus and recession I own AUDs which have been gathering dust in my IB account since I sold my Australian REIT stocks and an Australian consumer product stock. AUD / USD Currency Chart
+++
Trump:
Donald J. Trump: The Greatest President in History of All Time | The Daily-YouTube
According to research done by Larry Bartals of Vanderbilt, 50% of republicans and republican leaning independents believe that patriotic Americans will have to use force to preserve the "traditional" American way of life. Those people believe that they are the true Americans and are willing to take the law into their own hands to preserve their version of America. Ethnic antagonism erodes Republicans’ commitment to democracy | PNAS
Donald: The Performance Pretend Patriot:
Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’ - The Atlantic "Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives at Belleau Wood as “suckers” for getting killed." The Importance of the Battle of Belleau Wood-WWI
The Atlantic article also claims that Trump made the following statements about attending John McCain's funeral: “We’re not going to support that loser’s funeral ” and in response to lowering the WH flag to half-staff: "What the fuck are we doing that for? Guy was a fucking loser."
Trump also called President George H.W. Bush a "loser" for being shot down as a Navy pilot during WWII.
Trump is what I call a "performance patriot", but the performance only fools republicans and republican leaning independents.
The sourcing is claimed to come from multiple persons who wish to remain anonymous. (One possible source IMO is the retired Marine 4 star General John Kelly who also served as Trump's Chief-of-Staff) When Trump denied making those statements, he launched into a tirade against Kelly.
Trump: Gen. John Kelly couldn't 'handle the pressure' as chief of staff Trump will viciously attack anyone, usually with totally unfounded accusations, for telling the truth about him.
Watch Trump's response when asked about John Kelly and bombshell story;
John Kelly, at Center of Report on Trump Disparaging U.S. Soldiers, Keeps Silent - The New York Times General Kelly needs to come forward and acknowledge publicly that he was a source for the Atlantic article.
Donald is the only well known person alive today that I assign a negative credibility rating, since he lies constantly about almost everything. Donald lies as easily as he breathes which is one of the new conservative virtues of Trump's party.
When someone lies all of the time as Donald does, the only reasonable approach is to assume that he is lying until there is clear and convincing evidence, derived from reliable and independent sources, that he is telling the truth.
Consequently, the fact that Trump denied making the statements attributed to him in the Atlantic article carry no weight; and the denial itself has to be viewed as just another lie. Trump denies report claiming he called dead U.S. service members 'losers' and 'suckers'
Trump specifically denied ever calling John McCain a "loser":
But see:
In Trump's America, everyone who criticizes Donald, contradicts one of his false statements with facts, and/or does not fawn over the Duck excessively enough, is a Loser.
Don the Authoritarian:
Despot Don issued an order last week requiring federal agencies to look for ways to deny funds to democrat led major cities, including the District of Columbia, Portland, Seattle, and New York, calling them "anarchist jurisdictions". Trump seeks to cut federal funding to what he calls 'anarchist jurisdictions'
Demagogue Don does not have to worry about any push back from republican politicians except for Senator Romney occasionally.
Donald Urges the True Believers to Commit Felonies:
Trump encourages North Carolina residents to vote twice to test mail-in system Casting a vote and attempting to cast another is a felony. Trump arguably committed a felony by urging his followers to vote twice. President Trump Arguably Broke North Carolina Law-Election Law Blog In response, Trump's handlers tried to explain that Donald really was not encouraging republicans to commit felonies, being the "law and order" President.
Trump then doubled down and urged his followers at a Pennsylvania rally to vote twice. Trump doubles down on encouraging supporters to vote twice, which is illegal
52 United States Code § 10307: Prohibited acts Paragraph (e) makes it clear that voting twice for President or other federal office is a felony punishable by a fine of not more than $10,000 or imprisoned not more than five years, or both." While Donald could argue that he was joking, he needs to be charged with conspiracy to commit voter fraud, particularly if supporters carry through with Donald's plan. Let a jury decide guilt or innocence.
Everyday now, Don the Authoritarian is doing or saying something that lays the groundwork for refusing to accept the election results if he loses.
Trump: The Foremost Spreader of Conspiracy Theories in World History:
Trump Spread Multiple Conspiracy Theories on Monday. Here Are Their Roots. - The New York Times Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) concocted one of the baseless claims. When asked for evidence, he provided none of course, since no proof is ever required for republican manufactured conspiracy theories.
In one of the fact free conspiracy theories discussed in the previous link, Trump said that "thugs" had loaded on a plane somewhere and were traveling somewhere to disrupt the mostly virtual republican convention. The plane was loaded with guns, and the thugs in Trump's words were "wearing these dark uniforms, black uniforms, with gear and this and that".
As expected, a version of this particular GOP invented conspiracy has George Soros funding the riots.
Trump's 'plane loaded with thugs' conspiracy theory matches months-old rumor
In bid to paint Biden as extreme, Trump ramps up promotion of conspiracy theories - The Washington Post
Trump claims without evidence that Biden controlled by people in 'the dark shadows'
The 35 most reckless lines from Donald Trump's interview with Laura Ingraham
Trump's interviews with friendly hosts like Laura Ingraham can go awry even when they throw him a lifeline - The Washington Post
Trump also stated that the police officer who shot Jacob Blake in the back 7 times may have choked like a golfer who misses a three foot putt in a tournament.
Donald Trump Laura Ingraham Interview Transcript August 31: Says People "in the Dark Shadows" Controlling Biden; Three of the most buzzworthy moments from that Trump-Laura Ingraham interview - MarketWatch
Donald also claimed in the interview that Democrat governors control college football through their power over traffic lights and signs and can consequently be blamed for several conferences suspending play this year.
Trump then declared that he was too busy for games, notwithstanding playing golf over 230 times since becoming President.
Donald even has an explanation of why Biden is coherent. Joe Biden was on some kind of brain enhancement drug according to Donald; and he needs to take a blood test before the debates. Trump Returns To Fox News To Make 3 More Bananas Claims And Accusations
FactChecking Trump's Fox News Interview - FactCheck.org
When republican senators were asked to comment on the latest rants by their Great and Dear Leader, they had no comment with the exception of Senator Romney who called the comments "jaw-dropping". Trump Says Some Really Strange Things. Republicans Say No Comment, Again. - The New York Times
Romney is personal non grata in Trump's political party. The other republican senators and house members have done a mind and body meld with Donald. Perhaps, their hair will turn orange or their bellies yellow to reflect their courage and principles. (yellow-bellied-Dictionary)
When evaluating the impact of Trump's statements on the American voters, it needs to be remembered that a recent poll found that 81% of republicans and 32% of independents view him to be honest.
National (US) Poll - June 18, 2020 - Biden Ahead Of Trump By 8 Poin | Quinnipiac University Connecticut
Donald's approval rating among republicans hovers in the 90% to 95% range.
Trump Did Not Send the National Guard into Kenosha as He Claimed:
Trump blames ‘far-left politicians’ for violence in wake of police shooting on visit to Wisconsin - The Washington Post Trump's visit to Kenosha was just a campaign photo op where he launch tirades against Democrats.
Trump claimed that he sent the national guard into Kenosha to restore "law and order".
Wisconsin's democrat governor had already sent in the national guard when Lying Don claimed that he ordered them into the city. Trump in Kenosha: Claims credit for ordering National Guard; Fact check: Trump tweets distort truth on National Guard
Donald issued no order.
When an owner of a destroyed store refused to appear in a Trump campaign op, Donald got the guy who use to own the store to appear with him and both pretended that the older owner was the current one. Trump in Kenosha: Owners of destroyed store refused to meet Trump
Trump uses his megaphone as President to become the most prolific spreaders of fact free conspiracy theories.
No evidence is needed to support any of them in Trump's America.
When asked for evidence, Trump gives none.
It is always someone said or everybody knows. All of them are republican concoctions aimed at Democrat politicians; or anyone who has a significant audience and either disagrees with or criticizes Donald, even when the criticism is mild and clearly justified. The Supreme Leader of the republican party is a vicious asshole, a thoroughly repulsive and disgusting excuse for a human being.
In an interview with Laura Ingraham, Trump claimed that Democrat governors were responsible for the suspension of college football games.
Trump's Department of Justice:
Trump's Justice Department, formerly known as the U.S. Department of Justice, has launched a criminal investigation of Black Lives Matter and BLM protestors as domestic terrorists. Justice Department investigating protest leaders, funding
Etc:
Opinion: Donald Trump could still win the US election - CNN Over 63+ million Americans will vote to give this dangerous, disgusting, venal, lying demagogue with obvious strong authoritarian impulses 4 more years as President.
“Hannity Has Said to Me More Than Once, ‘He’s Crazy’”: Fox News Staffers Feel Trapped in the Trump Cult | Vanity Fair
Trump lavishes praise on supporters amid deadly clashes with social justice protesters - The Washington Post
Donald wants the Trumpsters to clash with protestors, viewing more violent confrontations as helpful to him politically.
Donald approved of his followers shooting pant balls and pepper spray at protestors from the flatbeds of moving trucks by publishing a video of that happening. Donald J. Trump on Twitter His press secretary later denied that Donald had watched the video that he published on his twitter feed.
{Based on a NYT investigation, the guy shot and killed in Portland, Aaron J. Danielson, who was a member of a right wing organization called Patriot Prayer, came into contact with a tall white man who was a protestor. The tall white man walked toward Mr. Danielson and words were apparently exchanged between the two men. Danielson may then have shot the protestor with a pepper spray or mace like substance whose arms were raised in response to a hissing sound heard on audio. The protestor than quickly fired a pistol at Danielson, hitting him in the chest. When I viewed the videos, it looked like there was enough evidence that the shooter could be identified and arrested. Video: How the Fatal Shooting at A Portland Protest Unfolded - The New York Times He was shot and killed by the police on Thursday and was identified as Michael Reinoehl, an antifa supporter, who had claimed that the shooting was in self defense. Man Linked to Killing at a Portland Protest Says He Acted in Self-Defense That claim will not now be tested in a court of law. If Danielson had shot and killed Reinoehl, then Donald and his Trumpsters would say that was self-defense without question}
Trump lavishes praise on supporters amid deadly clashes with social justice protesters - The Washington Post
As clashes between armed groups and leftist protesters turn deadly, police face complaints of tolerating vigilantes - The Washington Post
Trump's Justice Department called off probe into his personal and financial dealings with Russia
Protect - YouTube
New York probing whether Donald Trump and the Trump Organization manipulated asset values - Reuters; Judge orders Trump company to court for New York subpoenas
Trump’s election year gamble: Messing with Social Security and Medicare -MarketWatch I doubt that many voters, who would be adversely impacted, are even aware of Trump's proposals.
Trumpsters are not going to change their minds about supporting Donald. Trump’s Fights Are Their Fights. They Have His Back Unapologetically.- The New York Times
When a republican is aware that Trump may have some issues about telling the truth, there is an effort to minimize it as political theatre. GOP voters say they enjoy the ‘Trump Show’ but want to see a plan for second term - The Washington Post
For example, one Trumpster in that NYT article is quoted as saying Trump "exaggerates sometimes".
Final Night of the Republican Convention - FactCheck.org Donald lied of course non-stop.
Trump Embraces Fringe Theories on Protests and the Coronavirus - The New York Times The tweets were incendiary and likely to provoke more violence.
Fact check: Trump makes more false claims about Biden and protests Trump has demonstrated beyond any doubt that lying all of the time, and repeating the same lie over and over again, works on close to 40% of U.S. voters and almost all republicans.
Trump Retweets Dated, Racially Charged Post - FactCheck.org Trump deliberately stokes racial tensions and divisions, viewing it as helpful to his reelection effort.
Republican Convention Night 2 - FactCheck.org
Homeland Security Blocked Warnings of Russian Campaign Against Joe Biden - The New York Times DHS is run by a Trump gofer who, in the opinion of the U.S. General Accounting Office, is occupying his position in violation of the law (with Donald's blessing). Top Two Homeland Security Officials Are Serving Illegally, GAO Rules - Government Executive
Representative Steve Scalise (R-LA), the second ranking republican in the House who spoke about Donald's compassion in his convention address, was tagged for sharing a manipulated video by twitter. Twitter slaps 'manipulated media' tag on video shared by Scalise that alters activist's question to Biden | TheHill
The altered video made it look like Biden responded yes to a question about defunding the police. The word "police" was spliced into the video and was not in the original. Republican leader shares faked video of disabled activist on Twitter - The Verge
Scalise shamelessly admitted the video was doctored but then claimed the doctored video was nonetheless accurate. Steve Scalise defends doctored video about Biden and defunding police That is to be expected from him. Don the Con carried Scalise's district 69% to 27%.
Just another Trump false claim: PolitiFact | Trump is wrong — Biden has repeatedly condemned violence tied to protests
Melania's ex-friend: Trump family tainted by 'deceit, deception' - ABC News
IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig Profits From Trump Properties | Law & Crime
Trumpsters are not going to change their minds about supporting Donald. Trump’s Fights Are Their Fights. They Have His Back Unapologetically.- The New York Times
When a republican is aware that Trump may have some issues about telling the truth, there is an effort to minimize it as political theatre. GOP voters say they enjoy the ‘Trump Show’ but want to see a plan for second term - The Washington Post
For example, one Trumpster in that NYT article is quoted as saying Trump "exaggerates sometimes".
Final Night of the Republican Convention - FactCheck.org Donald lied of course non-stop.
Trump Embraces Fringe Theories on Protests and the Coronavirus - The New York Times The tweets were incendiary and likely to provoke more violence.
Fact check: Trump makes more false claims about Biden and protests Trump has demonstrated beyond any doubt that lying all of the time, and repeating the same lie over and over again, works on close to 40% of U.S. voters and almost all republicans.
Trump Retweets Dated, Racially Charged Post - FactCheck.org Trump deliberately stokes racial tensions and divisions, viewing it as helpful to his reelection effort.
Republican Convention Night 2 - FactCheck.org
Homeland Security Blocked Warnings of Russian Campaign Against Joe Biden - The New York Times DHS is run by a Trump gofer who, in the opinion of the U.S. General Accounting Office, is occupying his position in violation of the law (with Donald's blessing). Top Two Homeland Security Officials Are Serving Illegally, GAO Rules - Government Executive
Representative Steve Scalise (R-LA), the second ranking republican in the House who spoke about Donald's compassion in his convention address, was tagged for sharing a manipulated video by twitter. Twitter slaps 'manipulated media' tag on video shared by Scalise that alters activist's question to Biden | TheHill
The altered video made it look like Biden responded yes to a question about defunding the police. The word "police" was spliced into the video and was not in the original. Republican leader shares faked video of disabled activist on Twitter - The Verge
Scalise shamelessly admitted the video was doctored but then claimed the doctored video was nonetheless accurate. Steve Scalise defends doctored video about Biden and defunding police That is to be expected from him. Don the Con carried Scalise's district 69% to 27%.
Just another Trump false claim: PolitiFact | Trump is wrong — Biden has repeatedly condemned violence tied to protests
Melania's ex-friend: Trump family tainted by 'deceit, deception' - ABC News
IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig Profits From Trump Properties | Law & Crime
Exclusive: Business partner of Falwells says he had long affair with evangelical power couple - Reuters Falwell, a major Trump supporter and self-proclaimed proponent of "family values", is just another hypocrite. Former pool attendant details alleged relationship with Becki and Jerry Falwell Jr. - ABC News
Trump Embraces QAnon:
In a recent poll, only 13% of republicans do not believe QAnon conspiracy theories. 56% of republicans believe that those conspiracy theories are either mostly true or at least partly true. Majority Of Republicans Believe The QAnon Conspiracy Theory Is Partly Or Mostly True, Survey Finds
The QAnon conspiracy theories started with an anonymous user called "Q" on the message board 4chan who claimed that a cabal of Satan worshipping, child-trafficking pedophiles are plotting against Donald Trump, their savior and the Chosen One.
The 4chan message board is notoriously foul and fact free, noteworthy primarily for violent images, porn, anti-semitism and the creation of fact free conspiracy theories favored by Trump and his cult members.
QAnon's messaging is then allowed to spread worldwide by Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.
If one of the messages is taken down as promoting violence, the response by the cult is that the social media company is trying to censor "conservative" speech. QAnon explained: the antisemitic conspiracy theory gaining traction around the world
It is not clear yet whether or not "Q" is a Russian intelligence agent.
With a few exceptions, capable of being counted on the fingers of one hand, incumbent republican politicians have not even criticized the QAnon ideology and messages, recognizing that a considerable part of their core base includes adherents.
51% of Republican Still Think Obama Was Born in Kenya (12/11/17 article)
Trumpsters will never accept as true facts that rebut fact free republican created conspiracy theories.
Donald recognizes that the republican mind is susceptible to believing false statements and fact free conspiracy theories which is why he repeatedly uses both to manipulate.
Another interesting psychological point is that the republicans would not believe the same false statements when uttered by a Democrat. Believing or refusing to believe a statement is dependent on the messenger and tribal affiliation rather than making an effort to learn the truth.
Trump Embraces QAnon:
In a recent poll, only 13% of republicans do not believe QAnon conspiracy theories. 56% of republicans believe that those conspiracy theories are either mostly true or at least partly true. Majority Of Republicans Believe The QAnon Conspiracy Theory Is Partly Or Mostly True, Survey Finds
The QAnon conspiracy theories started with an anonymous user called "Q" on the message board 4chan who claimed that a cabal of Satan worshipping, child-trafficking pedophiles are plotting against Donald Trump, their savior and the Chosen One.
The 4chan message board is notoriously foul and fact free, noteworthy primarily for violent images, porn, anti-semitism and the creation of fact free conspiracy theories favored by Trump and his cult members.
QAnon's messaging is then allowed to spread worldwide by Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.
If one of the messages is taken down as promoting violence, the response by the cult is that the social media company is trying to censor "conservative" speech. QAnon explained: the antisemitic conspiracy theory gaining traction around the world
It is not clear yet whether or not "Q" is a Russian intelligence agent.
With a few exceptions, capable of being counted on the fingers of one hand, incumbent republican politicians have not even criticized the QAnon ideology and messages, recognizing that a considerable part of their core base includes adherents.
51% of Republican Still Think Obama Was Born in Kenya (12/11/17 article)
Trumpsters will never accept as true facts that rebut fact free republican created conspiracy theories.
Donald recognizes that the republican mind is susceptible to believing false statements and fact free conspiracy theories which is why he repeatedly uses both to manipulate.
Another interesting psychological point is that the republicans would not believe the same false statements when uttered by a Democrat. Believing or refusing to believe a statement is dependent on the messenger and tribal affiliation rather than making an effort to learn the truth.
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Covid-19 Updates:
Donald has the pandemic under control in TrumpWorld:
US Daily Deaths | The COVID Tracking Project
Research group Trump administration previously touted releases dire COVID-19 death toll projections
COVID-19: Small gatherings quietly a significant source of infections: USA Today
Nevada lab confirms 1st coronavirus reinfection in the US - ABC News
FDA ignores science in expanding remdesivir to treat COVID-19
Trump's New Hampshire crowd boo announcement to wear masks-YouTube The Trumpsters are just following Donald's lead.
Trump mocks Biden’s mask-wearing at packed Pennsylvania rally - MarketWatch
Last weekend, Donald retweeted a conspiracy theory claim that only about 9,000 people had actually died from coronavirus rather than nearly 2000,000 in the U.S. Trump retweets conspiracy theory questioning COVID-19 death toll | TheHill The original tweet was from one of his QAnon supporters. Trump's coronavirus death-toll conspiracy theory - The Washington Post
Spreading that kind of false information will result in more infections and deaths. Donald is telling anyone who still believes him that the pandemic is just hoax and there is no need to take precautions.
There are no boundaries for Trump. He will make false and misleading statements on any subject, including matters relating to a pandemic as he has done since it started early this year.
Secret White House Coronavirus Task Force Reports Contradict Public Claims by Trump, Pence
Trump, Hahn Mischaracterize Data on COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma - FactCheck.org The FDA and CDC have already lost IMO their credibility on several matters relating to Covid, since both agencies have already shown a willingness to bow to political pressure from Donald. I will not rely solely on the CDC's recommendations or any claim made by the FDA regarding a vaccine or other Covid-19 treatment going forward. Experts call for independent commission separate from FDA to review data It is futile for the FDA and CDC to say now that their decisions and recommendations will not be influenced by political pressure from Dr. Don.
Once credibility is lost on a matter as important as the coronavirus, it can not be reacquired by words and assurances by those who have lost credibility.
Convalescent plasma not recommended to treat COVID-19, government panel says
New Trump coronavirus adviser Scott Atlas pushes controversial herd immunity strategy - The Washington Post, republished at MSN: New Trump pandemic adviser pushes controversial ‘herd immunity’ strategy, worrying public health officials ("two senior administration officials and one former official, as well as medical experts, noted that the administration is already taking steps to move the country in this direction.") The herd immunity strategy would lift restrictions on healthy people in an intentional effort to create more infections that would eventually lead to herd immunity.
Dr. Scott Atlas Has Controversial Views On Handling The Pandemic : Shots - Health News-NPR; Dr. Scott Atlas disputes COVID-19 fear mongering tactics from our health officials
Scott Atlas, as I discussed in a 8/22/20 post (covid section) has no expertise in infectious diseases.
Among virus experts, the prediction is that a herd immunity strategy would result in over 1 million deaths in the U.S.
According to a NYT article published last Wednesday, Dr. Atlas also believes that children can not infect others and mask wearing may confer no benefits.
It was Dr. Atlas who pushed the CDC last week to recommend that people without Covid-19 symptoms do not need to be tested even if they had come into contact with confirmed infections people. (republished at MSN: A New Coronavirus Adviser Roils the White House With Unorthodox Ideas)
Asymptomatic children who contract COVID-19 may transmit coronavirus for weeks - MarketWatch (based on study published in JAMA Pediatrics); 3 New Scientific Studies Say, ‘Mask Up!’ COVID-19
White House suppressed coronavirus reports and downplayed virus
Moderna and Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine candidates require ultra-low temperatures, raising questions about storage, distribution - MarketWatch ("BioNTech and Pfizer’s candidates, BN1162b2 and BNT162b2, need to be stored in negative 94 degrees Fahrenheit.")
California health officials order chicken plant closure after 8 die of COVID-19 - CBS News (8/28/20)
Opinion | Gerald Ford Rushed Out a Vaccine. It Was a Fiasco. - The New York Times; When the US Government Fast-Tracked a Flu Vaccine in an Election Year - HISTORY
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All trades are commission free.
Covid-19 Updates:
Donald has the pandemic under control in TrumpWorld:
 |
| As of 9/4/20 |
Research group Trump administration previously touted releases dire COVID-19 death toll projections
COVID-19: Small gatherings quietly a significant source of infections: USA Today
Nevada lab confirms 1st coronavirus reinfection in the US - ABC News
FDA ignores science in expanding remdesivir to treat COVID-19
Trump's New Hampshire crowd boo announcement to wear masks-YouTube The Trumpsters are just following Donald's lead.
Trump mocks Biden’s mask-wearing at packed Pennsylvania rally - MarketWatch
Last weekend, Donald retweeted a conspiracy theory claim that only about 9,000 people had actually died from coronavirus rather than nearly 2000,000 in the U.S. Trump retweets conspiracy theory questioning COVID-19 death toll | TheHill The original tweet was from one of his QAnon supporters. Trump's coronavirus death-toll conspiracy theory - The Washington Post
Spreading that kind of false information will result in more infections and deaths. Donald is telling anyone who still believes him that the pandemic is just hoax and there is no need to take precautions.
There are no boundaries for Trump. He will make false and misleading statements on any subject, including matters relating to a pandemic as he has done since it started early this year.
Secret White House Coronavirus Task Force Reports Contradict Public Claims by Trump, Pence
Trump, Hahn Mischaracterize Data on COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma - FactCheck.org The FDA and CDC have already lost IMO their credibility on several matters relating to Covid, since both agencies have already shown a willingness to bow to political pressure from Donald. I will not rely solely on the CDC's recommendations or any claim made by the FDA regarding a vaccine or other Covid-19 treatment going forward. Experts call for independent commission separate from FDA to review data It is futile for the FDA and CDC to say now that their decisions and recommendations will not be influenced by political pressure from Dr. Don.
Once credibility is lost on a matter as important as the coronavirus, it can not be reacquired by words and assurances by those who have lost credibility.
Convalescent plasma not recommended to treat COVID-19, government panel says
New Trump coronavirus adviser Scott Atlas pushes controversial herd immunity strategy - The Washington Post, republished at MSN: New Trump pandemic adviser pushes controversial ‘herd immunity’ strategy, worrying public health officials ("two senior administration officials and one former official, as well as medical experts, noted that the administration is already taking steps to move the country in this direction.") The herd immunity strategy would lift restrictions on healthy people in an intentional effort to create more infections that would eventually lead to herd immunity.
Dr. Scott Atlas Has Controversial Views On Handling The Pandemic : Shots - Health News-NPR; Dr. Scott Atlas disputes COVID-19 fear mongering tactics from our health officials
Scott Atlas, as I discussed in a 8/22/20 post (covid section) has no expertise in infectious diseases.
Among virus experts, the prediction is that a herd immunity strategy would result in over 1 million deaths in the U.S.
According to a NYT article published last Wednesday, Dr. Atlas also believes that children can not infect others and mask wearing may confer no benefits.
It was Dr. Atlas who pushed the CDC last week to recommend that people without Covid-19 symptoms do not need to be tested even if they had come into contact with confirmed infections people. (republished at MSN: A New Coronavirus Adviser Roils the White House With Unorthodox Ideas)
Asymptomatic children who contract COVID-19 may transmit coronavirus for weeks - MarketWatch (based on study published in JAMA Pediatrics); 3 New Scientific Studies Say, ‘Mask Up!’ COVID-19
White House suppressed coronavirus reports and downplayed virus
Moderna and Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine candidates require ultra-low temperatures, raising questions about storage, distribution - MarketWatch ("BioNTech and Pfizer’s candidates, BN1162b2 and BNT162b2, need to be stored in negative 94 degrees Fahrenheit.")
California health officials order chicken plant closure after 8 die of COVID-19 - CBS News (8/28/20)
Opinion | Gerald Ford Rushed Out a Vaccine. It Was a Fiasco. - The New York Times; When the US Government Fast-Tracked a Flu Vaccine in an Election Year - HISTORY
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All trades are commission free.
1. Small Ball:
A. Started SCHV-BOUGHT 5 AT $51.97:
Quote: SCHV | Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF Overview
"The investment seeks to track as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the total return of the Dow Jones U.S. Large-Cap Value Total Stock Market Index."
Closing Price 9/4/20: SCHV $53.82 +$0.07 +0.13%
"The investment seeks to track as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the total return of the Dow Jones U.S. Large-Cap Value Total Stock Market Index."
Closing Price 9/4/20: SCHV $53.82 +$0.07 +0.13%
Sponsor's Website: Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF
Expense Ratio: .04%
One Year SCHV Chart: Unlike the large cap growth ETFs, which recently soared above their February 2020 highs, large cap value ETFs are still struggling to return to February levels.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/25/20
B. Added 3 PBCT at $10.58; 5 at $10.41:
Quote: People's United Financial Inc (PBCT)
Closing Price 9/4/20: PBCT $11.02 +$0.39 3.67%
PBCT Consensus Analyst E.P.S. Estimates
PBCT SEC Filings
PBCT 2019 Annual Report
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.K. Added to PBCT-Bought 10 at $11.27; 10 at $10.87 (5/23/20 Post) Item # 2.C. Added to PBCT - Bought 5 at $12; 5 at $10.72; 5 at $9.72 (4/25/20 Post)
Prior Round Trips: Item # 3.A. Eliminated PBCT-Sold 101+ at $17.57 (5/22/19 Post)-Item # 3.A. Bought 100 PBCT at $15.65(11/28/18 Post); Item # 4 Sold 100 PBCT at $14.61 (9/21/13 Post)-Item # 1 Bought 100 PBCT at $11.47 (6/14/12 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share ($.72 annually)
Stock Information | Dividend History | People's United Bank
PBCT is currently a member of the dividend aristocrats and is consequently owned by the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) which I own in several of my accounts.
Last Ex Dividend: 7/31/20
Average Cost Per Share (90+ shares): $12.98
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 5.55%
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, currently view price as undervaluing the franchise longer term.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): People's United Financial Reports Second Quarter Net Income of $89.9 Million, or $0.21 per Common Share
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.K. Added to PBCT-Bought 10 at $11.27; 10 at $10.87 (5/23/20 Post) Item # 2.C. Added to PBCT - Bought 5 at $12; 5 at $10.72; 5 at $9.72 (4/25/20 Post)
Prior Round Trips: Item # 3.A. Eliminated PBCT-Sold 101+ at $17.57 (5/22/19 Post)-Item # 3.A. Bought 100 PBCT at $15.65(11/28/18 Post); Item # 4 Sold 100 PBCT at $14.61 (9/21/13 Post)-Item # 1 Bought 100 PBCT at $11.47 (6/14/12 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share ($.72 annually)
Stock Information | Dividend History | People's United Bank
PBCT is currently a member of the dividend aristocrats and is consequently owned by the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) which I own in several of my accounts.
Last Ex Dividend: 7/31/20
Average Cost Per Share (90+ shares): $12.98
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 5.55%
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, currently view price as undervaluing the franchise longer term.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): People's United Financial Reports Second Quarter Net Income of $89.9 Million, or $0.21 per Common Share
"Funded nearly 18,000 Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans totaling over $2.6 billion as of July 15th, of which approximately 80 percent were small business loans under $150,000 and supported the paychecks of more than 260,000 employees across the Northeast."
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
PBCT Realized Gains To Date: $486.53 (snapshots in Regional Bank Basket post)
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
PBCT Realized Gains To Date: $486.53 (snapshots in Regional Bank Basket post)
C. Restarted TRMK-Bought 5 at $22.3:
Quote: Trustmark Corp.
Closing Price 9/4/20: TRMK $24.17 +$0.40 +1.68%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
TRMK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
TRMK SEC Filings
Stock Information as of 9/4/20:
5 Year Chart as of 9/4/20:
Closing Price 9/4/20: TRMK $24.17 +$0.40 +1.68%
"Trustmark is a financial services company providing banking and financial solutions through 187 offices in Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas."
TRMK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
TRMK SEC Filings
Stock Information as of 9/4/20:
5 Year Chart as of 9/4/20:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 8/31/20 (owned as of)
Dividend Yield at $22.3: 4.13%
5 Year Financial Data:
2019 Annual Report at page 30
Properties as of 12/31/19:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): TRMK SEC Filed Press Release
Net income of $32.2M or $.51 per share, down from $.64 in the 2019 second quarter but up from $.35 in the 2020 first quarter
"Due to macroeconomic uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic, Trustmark’s provision for credit losses was $18.2 million and its credit loss expense related to off-balance sheet credit exposures was $6.2 million, resulting in total credit loss expenses of $24.4 million in the second quarter."
10-Q For the Q/E 6/30/20
Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must lower my average cost per share.
Prior Discussions: Item # 1 Sold 50 TRMK at $24.33- Regional Bank Basket As Of 10/26/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $88.22); Sold 100 TRMK at $24.45 (10/28/14 Post)-Item # Bought 100 TRMK at $23.12 (8/9/14 Post); Sold 50+ TRMK at $24.63 (7/19/14 Post)-Item # 6 Bought: 50 TRMK at $22.73 (5/10/14 Post); Item # 1 Sold 50 Trustmark at $26.52 (7/20/13 Post)-Item # A Bought 50 TRMK at $21.54 (11/16/11 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 TRMK at $24.7 (1/6/12 Post)-Item # 3 Bought 50 TRMK at 19.57 (8/21/10 Post)
TRMK Total Realized Gains: +$762.35
Last Ex Dividend: 8/31/20 (owned as of)
Dividend Yield at $22.3: 4.13%
5 Year Financial Data:
Properties as of 12/31/19:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): TRMK SEC Filed Press Release
Net income of $32.2M or $.51 per share, down from $.64 in the 2019 second quarter but up from $.35 in the 2020 first quarter
Trustmark "provided loans under the Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program; gross PPP loans totaled $969.7 million at June 30, 2020 with an average loan size of $100 thousand."
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $20.18 as of 6/30/20
10-Q For the Q/E 6/30/20
Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must lower my average cost per share.
Prior Discussions: Item # 1 Sold 50 TRMK at $24.33- Regional Bank Basket As Of 10/26/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $88.22); Sold 100 TRMK at $24.45 (10/28/14 Post)-Item # Bought 100 TRMK at $23.12 (8/9/14 Post); Sold 50+ TRMK at $24.63 (7/19/14 Post)-Item # 6 Bought: 50 TRMK at $22.73 (5/10/14 Post); Item # 1 Sold 50 Trustmark at $26.52 (7/20/13 Post)-Item # A Bought 50 TRMK at $21.54 (11/16/11 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 TRMK at $24.7 (1/6/12 Post)-Item # 3 Bought 50 TRMK at 19.57 (8/21/10 Post)
D. Started ISBC-Bought 10 at $7.97; 4 at $7.7:
Quote: Investors Bancorp Inc. (ISBC)
Closing Price 9/4/20: ISBC $8.23 +$0.17 +2.11%
ISBC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Closing Price 9/4/20: ISBC $8.23 +$0.17 +2.11%
"Investors Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company for Investors Bank, which as of June 30, 2020 operated from its corporate headquarters in Short Hills, New Jersey and 154 branches located throughout New Jersey and New York." Branch and ATM Locations | NY Bank | NJ Bank | Investors Bank (Map)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
ISBC SEC Filings
Investors Relations | Investors Bank
Stock Information as of 9/4/20:
5 Year Chart:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 8/7/2020 (owned as of)
Average Cost Per Share (15 shares): $7.89
Dividend Yield at AC = 6.08%
5 Year Financials:
2019 Annual Report at pages 44-45
Tangible Book Value Per Share as of 12/31/19 = $10.69
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
"net income of $42.6 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, for the three months ended June 30, 2020 as compared to $39.5 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, for the three months ended March 31, 2020 and $46.6 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, for the three months ended June 30, 2019."
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $10.53
The capital ratios are good as of 6/30/20. The pandemic and recession has not had much of an impact on non-performing loans and assets yet. NIM is anemic, but that was the case last year when interest rates were higher. The efficiency ratio of 52.06% is good. The allowance for loan losses as a percentage of non-performing loans (coverage ratio) is reassuring at 215.48%. That simply means that the company has already set aside reserves for loan losses that are more than 2 x the value of current nonaccrual loans.
ISBC did adopt CECL as of 1/1/2020:
"On January 1, 2020, the Company adopted ASU 2016-13, Financial Instruments- Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments (“CECL”). CECL requires the measurement of all expected credit losses over the life of financial instruments held at the reporting date based on historical experience, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts. CECL replaces the incurred loss methodology and therefore, the allowance and provision for credit losses is based upon estimated expected credit losses rather than incurred losses. . . . At adoption, the Company increased its allowance for credit losses by $11.7 million, comprised of $12.7 million and $2.6 million, respectively, for unfunded commitments and held-to-maturity debt securities, partially offset by a decrease of $3.6 million for loans."
ISBC SEC Filings
Investors Relations | Investors Bank
Stock Information as of 9/4/20:
Last Ex Dividend: 8/7/2020 (owned as of)
Average Cost Per Share (15 shares): $7.89
Dividend Yield at AC = 6.08%
5 Year Financials:
2019 Annual Report at pages 44-45
Tangible Book Value Per Share as of 12/31/19 = $10.69
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
"net income of $42.6 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, for the three months ended June 30, 2020 as compared to $39.5 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, for the three months ended March 31, 2020 and $46.6 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, for the three months ended June 30, 2019."
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $10.53
ISBC did adopt CECL as of 1/1/2020:
"On January 1, 2020, the Company adopted ASU 2016-13, Financial Instruments- Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments (“CECL”). CECL requires the measurement of all expected credit losses over the life of financial instruments held at the reporting date based on historical experience, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts. CECL replaces the incurred loss methodology and therefore, the allowance and provision for credit losses is based upon estimated expected credit losses rather than incurred losses. . . . At adoption, the Company increased its allowance for credit losses by $11.7 million, comprised of $12.7 million and $2.6 million, respectively, for unfunded commitments and held-to-maturity debt securities, partially offset by a decrease of $3.6 million for loans."
E. Started AIV-Bought 10 at $36.2; 1 at $34.72:
Quote: Apartment Investment & Management Co. (AIV)
Closing Price 9/4/20: AIV $37.45 +$0.39 +1.05%
"Aimco’s portfolio of apartment communities is diversified across “A,” “B,” and “C+” price points, averaging “B/B+” in quality and is also diversified across several of the largest markets in the United States."
Portfolio Strategy: Q/E 6/30/20
AIV SE Filings
2019 AIV Annual Report
Aimco | Overview
Stock Information as of 9/4/20:
5 Year Chart:
The fear expressed in this chart starting in March 2020 involves rent collections IMO.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.41 per share ($1.64 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 8/13/20 (owned as of)
Average Cost Per Share: $36.07
Dividend Yield at AC = 4.55%
Last Earnings report (6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"At June 30, 2020, Aimco held cash and restricted cash of $428 million and had the capacity to borrow up to $793 million under its revolving credit facility, bringing total liquidity to $1.2 billion."
Prior Trades: None.
F. Pared GDO-Sold Highest Cost 10 Shares at $17.41; 5 at $17.43:
These lots were my highest cost ones. My average cost per share was reduced from $15.76 to $15.4 by selling them.
Profit Snapshot: $1.9
Dividend: Monthly at $.101 per share ($1.21 annually)
Dividend Yield at $15.4 Average Cost: 7.87%
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added 35 GDO at $16.78; 5 at $15.6: 5 at $14.34; 5 at $13.75; 5 at $12.3; 5 at $11.4 (4/11/20 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Eliminated GDO-Sold 224+ at $16.47-Used Commission Free Trade (3/3/19 Post)
G. Started EBMT-Bought 10 Shares at $15.9:
Quote: Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.
Closing Price 9/4/20: EBMT $17.93 +$0.35 +1.99%
"Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc. (“Eagle” or the “Company”), is a Delaware corporation that holds100 % of the capital stock of Opportunity Bank of Montana (“OBMT” or the “Bank”). The Bank was founded in 1922 as a Montana-chartered building and loan association and has conducted operations and maintained its administrative office in Helena, Montana since that time" The bank currently has 23 branches.
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Eliminated GDO-Sold 224+ at $16.47-Used Commission Free Trade (3/3/19 Post)
G. Started EBMT-Bought 10 Shares at $15.9:
Closing Price 9/4/20: EBMT $17.93 +$0.35 +1.99%
"Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc. (“Eagle” or the “Company”), is a Delaware corporation that holds
EBMT Analyst Estimates
EBMT SEC Filings
Corporate Profile – Opportunity Bank (Helena, MT)
Stock Information as of 9/4/20:
5 Year Chart as of 9/4/20:
EBMT SEC Filings
Corporate Profile – Opportunity Bank (Helena, MT)
Stock Information as of 9/4/20:
5 Year Chart as of 9/4/20:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.0975 per share ($.39 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 8/13/20 (owned as of)
Yield at $15.9: 2.45%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release or Eagle Bancorp Montana Earns $5.7 Million, or $0.84 per Diluted Share, in Second Quarter 2020; Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend by 2.7% to $0.0975 per Share and Renews Stock Repurchase Plan
"Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc. . . the holding company of Opportunity Bank of Montana, today reported net income in the second quarter of 2020 increased 78.1% to $5.7 million, or $0.84 per diluted share, compared to $3.2 million, or $0.51 per diluted share, in the second quarter a year ago, reflecting the high level of contributions from mortgage banking and gains from sale of loans. Net income increased 46.0% when compared to $3.9 million, or $0.57 per diluted share, in the preceding quarter. In the first six months of 2020, net income increased 118.1% to $9.7 million, or $1.41 per diluted share, compared to $4.4 million, or $0.69 per diluted share, in the first six months of 2019."
Loan Accommodations and PPP:
NIM: 3.85%
Core Efficiency Ratio: 61.93%
Tangible Book Value Per Share = $17.32
ROA: 1.9%
NPL Ratio: 1%
NPA Ratio: .68%
Coverage Ratio: 124.56% (reserves established as a % of NPLs)
Charge-Off Ratio: Net recovery
2010-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20
Prior Trades: None
Yield at $15.9: 2.45%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release or Eagle Bancorp Montana Earns $5.7 Million, or $0.84 per Diluted Share, in Second Quarter 2020; Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend by 2.7% to $0.0975 per Share and Renews Stock Repurchase Plan
"Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc. . . the holding company of Opportunity Bank of Montana, today reported net income in the second quarter of 2020 increased 78.1% to $5.7 million, or $0.84 per diluted share, compared to $3.2 million, or $0.51 per diluted share, in the second quarter a year ago, reflecting the high level of contributions from mortgage banking and gains from sale of loans. Net income increased 46.0% when compared to $3.9 million, or $0.57 per diluted share, in the preceding quarter. In the first six months of 2020, net income increased 118.1% to $9.7 million, or $1.41 per diluted share, compared to $4.4 million, or $0.69 per diluted share, in the first six months of 2019."
Loan Accommodations and PPP:
Core Efficiency Ratio: 61.93%
Tangible Book Value Per Share = $17.32
ROA: 1.9%
NPL Ratio: 1%
NPA Ratio: .68%
Coverage Ratio: 124.56% (reserves established as a % of NPLs)
Charge-Off Ratio: Net recovery
2010-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20
 |
| Capital Ratios Page 49 10-Q (Good as of 6/30/20) |
H. Pared BDGE-Sold Highest Cost 10 Share Lot at $21.02:
Quote: Bridge Bancorp Inc.
Closing Price 9/4/20: BDGE $20.63 +$0.40 +1.98%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: +$11.24
This sell reduced my average cost per share to $18.4 from $18.78.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 7/17/20 (owned all as of)
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 5%
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 5%
Last Discussed: Item 1.A. Added 5 BDGE at $19.5; 5 at $18.9; 5 at $18.4; 5 at $18; 5 at $17.9; 5 at $17.7 (8/1/2020 Post) Those lots are still owned. I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add.
BDGE Trading Profits to Date: $2,748.31
I. Eliminated NWBI-Sold 15 at $10.48:
Quote: Northwest Bancshares Inc. (NWBI)
NWBI SEC Filings
Profit Snapshot (8/10/20 sell only): $11.07
I had an unfavorable opinion about the last earnings report.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share
Last Ex Dividend Date: 8/5/20
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): Northwest Bancshares, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2020 Earnings and Quarterly Dividend
"a net loss for the quarter ended June 30, 2020 of $6.2 million, or $(0.05) per diluted share. This represents a decrease of $32.6 million, or 123.5%, compared to the same quarter last year when net income was $26.4 million or $0.25 per diluted share."
NWBI Realized Gains to date: $216.75 (of that gain, $201.79 was realized in 2011: Item # 1 Sold 156+ NWBI at $12.52 (6/30/11 Post); Item # 2 Sold 50 NWBI at $12.5 (2/22/11 Post)
I. Eliminated NWBI-Sold 15 at $10.48:
Quote: Northwest Bancshares Inc. (NWBI)
NWBI SEC Filings
Profit Snapshot (8/10/20 sell only): $11.07
I had an unfavorable opinion about the last earnings report.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share
Last Ex Dividend Date: 8/5/20
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): Northwest Bancshares, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2020 Earnings and Quarterly Dividend
"a net loss for the quarter ended June 30, 2020 of $6.2 million, or $(0.05) per diluted share. This represents a decrease of $32.6 million, or 123.5%, compared to the same quarter last year when net income was $26.4 million or $0.25 per diluted share."
NWBI Realized Gains to date: $216.75 (of that gain, $201.79 was realized in 2011: Item # 1 Sold 156+ NWBI at $12.52 (6/30/11 Post); Item # 2 Sold 50 NWBI at $12.5 (2/22/11 Post)
2. Equity REIT Preferred Stocks:
A. Started PLYMPRA -Bought 10 at $25:
Quote: Plymouth Industrial REIT Inc. 7.5% Cumulative Preferred Series A Overview
Closing Price 9/4/20: PLYM-PA $25.86 -$0.13 -0.51%
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, subcategory of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Issuer: Plymouth Industrial REIT Inc.
I recently discussed starting a small ball "purchase program" in the common shares. Item # 1.F. Bought 10 PLYM at $12.85; 5 at $12.1 and 5 at $11.8 (8/1/2020 Post) The recent slash in the common stock dividend makes the preferred stock a "safer" credit risk. The reason is simply that there is more cash available to pay the preferred stock dividend.
Security: Equity Preferred Stock (senior only to common stock and junior in the capital structure to all debt)
Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Dividends: Cumulative and Non-Qualified
Next Ex Dividend Date: 9/14/20
Issuer Optional Redemption: On or after 12/31/22 at par value + accrued dividends
Stopper Clause: Yes, enforces the preferred stock's superior claim to cash dividends vs. the common stock only.
Last Issuer Earnings Report: Plymouth Industrial REIT Reports Second Quarter Results
Recent News: Plymouth Industrial REIT Announces Proposed Offering of 5,750,000 Shares of Common Stock
B. Pared DCOMP-Sold 10 of 100 at $21.14 and 10 at $22.26:
Closing Price 9/4/20: DCOMP $22.35 -$0.07 -0.31%
This pare reduced my average cost per share from $20.18 to $20.10.
 |
| Snapshot After Pares Intraday 8/17/20 |
I have received 1 quarterly dividend payment on 100 shares which included the 20 shares that have now been sold.
Current Position This Account: 80 Shares
I own 5 to 10 shares shares in 4 other accounts including 2 ROTH IRA accounts.
Profit Snapshot: +$26.23
Last Discussed: Item # 2. A. Bought 10 DCOMP at $20.68; 10 at $20.3 ; 5 at $20.26; 5 at $20.09; 70 at $20.09 (8/1/20 Post) I have now sold the ten share lots bought at $20.68 and $20.3.
When and if the price falls below my current average cost per share, I will consider buying back the shares sold. This is standard risk management for me.
C. Pared HTPRD-Sold 52 at $15.62:
Closing Price 9/4/20: HT-PD $14.14 -$0.02 -0.14%
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stock, a subcategory of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: NET of $85.89
I am in the hole on another 50 share lot. The general idea is reduce risk by selling some shares at a profit while keeping some in hopes that the price will continue to recover. The pandemic crushed hotel REIT common and preferred shares.
The coupon payments are in deferral. HT eliminated its common share dividend earlier this year and elected to defer payment of the preferred stock dividends. Under the circumstances, there is no telling when HT will start paying dividends again. Survival is its current priority which is understandable.
Security: Final Prospectus Supplement
Par Value: $25
Optional Call Date: Or or after 5/31/21
Cumulative: Yes. The issuer will have to pay all accrued and unpaid preferred stock dividends before paying a cash dividend on its common shares. That requirement is in the Dividend Stopper clause.
 |
| HTPRD Dividend Stopper Clause-Page S-16 Prospectus |
Prior Sells: Item # 2 Eliminated HTPRD in Roth IRA Account- Sold 50 at $25.67 (2/20/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $271.47); Item # 2.A. Sold 50 HTPRD at $25.62 (10/11/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $161.46); Item # 1.B. Sold 50 HTPRD in Roth IRA Account at $22.39 (3/6/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.49); Item # 1.A. Sold Last 50 HTPRD Shares at $25.85 (10/9/17 Post) (profit snapshot = $30.97); Items # 2.A, 2.B. and 2.C.: Sold 150 HTPRD in Three 50 share lots at $25.8 (9/18/17 post)(profit snapshots = $237.46)
HTPRD Realized Gains to Date: $935.82 ($848.93 in prior trades)
3. Mutual Funds:
A. Pared VHCOX $500 at $71.62 and $500 at $73.02 :
Closing Price 9/4/20: VHCOX $71.39 -$0.25 -0.35%
Profit Snapshot: +$470.23
Given the parabolic rise in the market, it seemed reasonable to nibble at my unrealized gain.
Sponsor's Website: VHCOX-Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund Investor Shares
Expense Ratio: .44%
Another reason for paring this fund is its recent under performance.
Until I decided to pare this position, I was not aware that Morningstar had downgraded the fund to just 2 stars. Vanguard Capital Opportunity (VHCOX) Quote | Morningstar The performance data at that page shows the fund underperforming what Morningstar believes to be its benchmark index which is large company growth.
When I last sold shares, Morningstar had a 4 star rating on the fund. Item # 4 Sold 24+ VHCOX at $71.16 (1/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot $562.11)
Other Realized Gains:
 |
| 2017 VHCOX 13+ Shares + $222.86 |
 |
| 2017 VHCOX 115+ Shares +$522.35 |
Total VHCOX Realized Gains: +$1,777.55
I have been taking the dividends in cash since 2016.
Dividends and capital gain distributions are paid annually in December.
2019 Distributions per share:
 |
| $4.3775 per share-taken in cash |
Taking that distribution in cash is viewed by me as a way to pare the position without selling shares.
4. Escaped from Suez ADR-Sold 200 at $8.94:
Closing Price 9/4/20: SZSAY $8.91 +$0.11 +1.25%
Profit Snapshot: +$2.12
As discussed more fully in a recent comment, Suez may or may not be acquired at some price by Veolia Environnement SA. Veolia Offers to acquire Suez, eyes takeover - MarketWatch If nothing happens, I would expect Suez shares to fall back near the $7.24 price where the ADR was trading before Veolia's announcement. SZSAY Historical Prices I have already received the annual dividend for 2020. It is possible that Veolia will offer to pay more, which will be accepted by the interested parties, but I saw no reason to play that game after sitting on an unrealized loss for such a long period.
At some point after my purchase, the symbol changed from SZEVY to SZSAY.
Prior Round-Trip: Item # 3.C. Sold SZEVY at $9.23 (6/7/17 Post)-Item # 5 Bought 50 SZEVY at $7.24 (1/15/17 Post)
If nothing happens and SZSAY falls below $6.7, I may give it another shot. Volume in the ADR started to rise as well. Volume in the ordinary shares really picked up in Paris on 8/21/20 with a price jump to €11.81 from €11.35. SEV.PA Historical Prices
It is possible that someone got wind of the offer before it was announced on 8/30/20. Veolia is Offering to Acquire 29.9% of Suez from Engie, to Create the French World Champion of Ecological Transformation Suez started to trend up after closing at $6.7 on 8/20/20.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
The inflation article is interesting. I've been wondering about supply side inflation. Accordingly it'd reduce PE multiples, but also add to value company margins, and materials style companies. Seems optimistic to me, that a return to regular with a vaccine will be that much more heated than regular was before the vaccine. At that point supply side will be more available and stop inducing inflation.
ReplyDeleteI keep having a non-substantiated image of a crash happening when Biden enters office. All the regular to norm, hitting people and that coming out as realistic response to the economy. It keep's popping up, but it's not based on anything.
The CDC order article explains the order. It doesn't explain the glaring question. How is a CDC order law, and enforceable? The stimulus gave funds that could pay landlords. This just hurts the higher on the food chain, that Trump's always trying to protect. At some point it has to bubble up to effecting banks. (Though not at the degree of bankcrupting and closing them en-mass.)
After reading this, I checked out FG's. Since he's often so bullish, see what he's thinking about the pullback continuing. It's not out yet. But he attracts the Trump supporters. They are feeling good about last set of polls, and Trump's chances. So among investors, using your % who think he's to be looked up to, there's plenty of investors who are feeling that way.
I have little new to say about Trump. I hope this latest reveal of who he is on military has legs, like when he held a bible upside down after aggressively dispersing peaceful legal protestors, and the ministers of that very church.
Land: Evictions from apartments are handled by state courts. In states where there is currently no law preventing evictions, some landlords will continuing evicting tenants and the question becomes whether a state court will enforce that order. In the southern states, I doubt that will happen.
Deletehttps://thehill.com/policy/finance/housing/514898-trump-eviction-ban-tests-limits-of-cdc-authority
++
I view FG as a perma bull. I am not being critical since being one has been rewarded most of the time. I am critical of perma bears.
++
I went to Lowe's in Franklin, TN this morning which is located in a huge shopping area known as Cool Springs, where there are literally thousands of retail stores, restaurants, etc. When driving by Cracker Barrel, the parking lot was full as it normally would be on a Saturday morning which was the case for other stores as well. What I saw was activity similar to pre-pandemic levels.
There is a possibility that inflation could pick up with surges in demand accompanied by fiscal and monetary stimulus, along with increases in energy prices caused by capacity restraints resulting from substantial cuts in exploration expenses and a quick return to more normal consumption patterns.
The underlying long term predicate for the
market's advance is the belief that inflation and inflation will remain low for an extended period, likely measured in decades rather than years. If that consensus expectation is changed to persistent rising inflation and interest rates, then that would pressure the already existing and substantial expansions in P/E multiples for the growth stocks.
I don't think the Stock Jocks or Bond Ghouls have any concerns about problematic inflation happening, at least for the next decade.
Ultimately, the first casualty of the FED's unlimited QE and ZIRP forever, besides savers, is the USD. The QE program has become debt monetization funded by FED money creation. A crash in the USD has been avoided for now since other central banks are doing the same but the host governments are far more fiscally responsible than the U.S. on debt accumulation.
++
The Trumpsters, for whatever, reason dismiss everything negative about him, coming up with an endless variety of rationalization. So the Atlantic story will just be another one dismissed by them.
Why Trump Supporters Can’t Admit Who He Really
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/predicate-fear/616009/
A Fox reporter confirmed parts of the story and Donald said she needs to be fired.
I'm sure FG will continue his bullish view :). Market isn't even at 50D MA yet, so this is a bull market. I am curious what he attributes it to as trigger, and if he sees this as indication that burn off of excess will be in the form of a pullback, rather than trading range.
DeleteParking lots aren't at normal here yet. A red area is bound to be more open sooner.
That's a helpful layout of how inflation can impact or not.
There will be warning signs if the market starts to sense inflation instead of endless commitment to none.
https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/yellow-bellied#:~:text=To%20be%20yellow-bellied%20is,of%20word%20cowboys%20use%2C%20partner.
ReplyDelete"This word originally applied to birds that literally have a yellow belly, like the yellow-bellied sapsucker. From there, it came to mean an insult for cowards."
With all due respect, the etymology is not persuasive. Are birds with yellow bellies more cowardly than other birds, or is there any reason a person would think so?
That is the problem with a lot of guesswork etymologies for strange expressions.
David: The British claim that the phrase has an English origin:
Delete"Grose's A provincial glossary; with a collection of local proverbs etc, 1787, lists it:
"Yellow bellies. This is an appellation given to persons born in the Fens, who, it is jocularly said, have yellow bellies, like their eels."
https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/yellow-belly.html
A more likely origin is that the color yellow has traditionally been used to describe cowardice or just being worthless.
In the American frontier starting in the early 1800s, the term "yellow dog" was used to describe anything worthless.
Belly has traditionally been associated with guts or bravery in American history.
So it is not a stretch to add yellow and belly together as a description of cowardice which fits republican politicians willingness to stand up to Trump in any meaningful way.
Futures are active, even though the market is closed tomorrow? I figured it be closed until tomorrow night.
ReplyDeleteFutures are already showing the ethusiasm that stocks exist.
Land: The stock futures are trading now.
ReplyDeleteThe S & P 500 closed at 3,426.96 last Friday.
Marketwatch is showing the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Contract at 3,408.25 -9.60 -0.28%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sp%20500%20futures
Last Updated: Sep 6, 2020 at 9:29 p.m. CDT
3408.25 is not down -9.6 from Friday's close but down -18.71. I can not really explain how that happens since I do not trade futures and have not made any effort to learn about them. It may have something to do with where the stock futures closed last Friday.
I own a few residential Apartment REIT's and expected them to be down a few percent on the news of eviction moratorium. Guess Wall Street thinks this is basically unenforceable legally since the stocks were flat or up, but to me was a bit stronger then the first moratorium resolution. Starting to look at Riocan for commercial and residential exposure to Canada.
ReplyDeleteM: I suspect that investors are less concerned about eviction moratoriums now with businesses reopening and rehiring laid off workers. The consensus is that most of remaining issues will be solved by a vaccine administered to the masses during the 2021 first quarter. The belief is that Covid-19 may still be around thereafter but the number of infections will not impact materially business operations.
DeleteI own a few shares of BRG after buying and selling that stock.
Item # 2.I.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/05/angl-bab-brg-ebiz-fax-fbiox-good-hban.html
Last BRG Sell Discussion with prior sell discussions linked:
Item # 1.K. https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/05/axpra-brg-cfg-ddt-duk-fsk-igr-irt-jri.html
RIOCAN does have a significant apartment business in Canada:
https://riocanliving.com/
Trump has ordered his cult members to harass Steve Jobs' widow who has a majority stake in the Atlantic magazine.
ReplyDeleteTrump demanded that Fox "news" fire its national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin for confirming with her sources most of the Atlantic's story.
Her multiple confirmations can be found here:
https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1301975321495973889%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fmedia%2F2020%2F09%2F05%2Fjennifer-griffin-defended-by-fox-news-colleagues-after-trump-twitter-attack-over-her-confirmation-atlantic-reporting%2F
Authoritarians like Trump will govern using fear and intimidation.
The Trumpsters will go along and will dismiss the Atlantic story, even though the details have been confirmed by multiple news stories, since they have been indoctrinated over the past several decades to only believe what their leaders tell them or what is communicated by GOP propaganda media outlets.
From comments I have read, statements attributed to Trump are dismissed by Trumpsters since they come from anonymous sources.
They would accept the same statements if attributed by anonymous sources to a Democrat politician.
The underlying predicate for their non-acceptance has to be that all of the journalists, including Ms. Griffin, are lying about what well placed people with personal knowledge has told them, notwithstanding that Donald has made similar disparaging statements in publicly available writings and video.
First Bancorp
ReplyDeleteFBP vs FBNC I thought same stock on different indices.
But FBP is in an uptrend and FBNC is in a downtrend.
JPMChase is considered the most solid in the sector. But this looks better on fundamentals. Nearly no debt at all. Great balance sheet. Good div and PE. Crummy earnings, but that's the pandemic.
Only FBP is listed as just acquiring Santander. Not sure if all of Santander (seems to be) or just in Puerto Rico.
As a side note, glad I sold out of Santander a while ago.
----
JPMChase looks good to buy at any point. It's uptrending but still plenty of room to grow after this mess is over.
Decent Div. Well 3.48% would be low at any other time, but now it's a boon.
Never hear any worries about their balance sheet or debt. But the ratio isn't great. 1.35
I assume Santander is delisting and going away, if it's been bought out.
Land: Banco Santander (SAN) based in Spain is not going away. SAN did sell its Puerto Rico operations to FBP.
DeleteI view JPM is the highest quality big bank. I generally focus on small cap regional bank stocks. I do have JPM on my monitor list.
I do not pay any attention to futures until a hour or so before the opening. The S & P 500 futures contract trading last Sunday night and yesterday probably had a limited number of participants. This mornings activity does provide an indication of where the market will open.
E-Mini S&P 500
3,377.50-40.00 (-1.17%)
As of September 8; 7:53 AM EDT
Selling Puerto Rico fits better. The billions for it didn't seem high enough for the entire SAN bank.
DeleteDoes JPM's 1.35 debt ratio concern you?
Land: Banks are generally significantly leveraged. JPM's debt to equity ratio of 1.38 is lower than 72% of the 1304 banks.
Deletehttps://www.gurufocus.com/term/deb2equity/NYSE:JPM/Debt-to-Equity/JPMorgan-Chase-
I'd wondered if it worked differently for banks, with all their loaning out money.
DeleteWell I got pulled in. Bought $1000 of SPY at 335.75 a little bit ago on an order.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to concentrate on continuing to build my watch lists, while the market is in action.
Land: Today's big project today at HQ is to replace my mailbox and post that was destroyed by an unknown juvenile delinquent(s). It is difficult to imagine the pleasure response resulting from smashing a strangers mailbox but that happens frequently around here. But then it is almost as difficult to understand the affection and admiration so many have for a thoroughly repulsive animal like Trump too.
DeleteI started to dig a hole and then called the Mexicans.
I will do some scatter shot buying today, but I doubt that my total dollar commitment will go over $1K. So far I am up to about $250.
On days like today, early morning limit orders are place below the current bid price early in the morning. I will then wait to late afternoon to see before deciding to place more. I would want to see another leg down into the close.
S&P 500 3,356.82 -70.14 (-2.05%)
As of 12:04PM EDT.
VTV is outperforming the S & P 500 by being down slightly less.
Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares (VTV)
$105.71 -$1.81 (-1.68%)
As of 12:07PM EDT.
Banks are being hit again due in part to the decline in interest rates. The tech stocks and other high flyers are taking the market down with them.
The flight to safety trade today is to U.S. treasuries and high quality corporate bonds.
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)
$121.80 +0.33 (+0.27%)
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD)
$135.16 +$0.21 (+0.16%)
As of 12:02PM EDT.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LQD?p=LQD&.tsrc=fin-srch
Teenagers who are living in destructive homes, may take their need to express anger out on mailboxes. A troubling situation all the way around.
DeleteI am always bothered when I shop for birthday cards. Half the cards have jokes about "I was going to get you a gift but got one for myself instead." Or "you're almost as great as me."
It worries me that enough people think that's how to relate to other people, that these are funny, that it's a staple in card supplies. I can picture rare occasion where it's an inside joke. But most people talk about taking care of themselves instead of their friends on their birthdays?
I've been considering since 2015, if those are the same people who vote for Trump.
My dad is a trump supporter, but he likes sappy cards. He thinks trump is joking. Because of course he is, who would say any of these things seriously? And if you watch FOX, you miss all the news that's horrifying.
I assume you have some handy people around who turn out to be Mexican. My last repair person was American mutt.
At least safety is now going to bonds. It was odd when the market was selling off and bonds weren't getting bought.
Typo: "but WHAT people talk about taking care of themselves..."
DeleteLand: Trump is not joking but lying as a means to manipulate voters. He is easily the biggest asshole politician in the world today.
DeleteI do believe some Trumpsters sense that he is a lying jerk with no positive personality characteristics and very strong authoritarian impulses. Some who recognize his daily outrages as such may try to rationalize their support by saying he is just doing some kind of comedy routine to aggravate true conservatives ( a tiny fraction of republicans, probably less than 10%), moderates and liberals, a majority of Americans by a slim margin.
Early on people believed he was joking. Doing it to win. By now that's a long stretch to hold onto.
DeleteNow a days my dad says he's not into politics. I think it's his way of avoiding the uncomfortableness of realizing ... even though he wants to still believe in this person.
My dad didn't think it's a joke to own dems. He just thought it was a joke. Stuff was not meant, and irony was the goal. A lot has to do with FOX. If you don't see other news, you can not realize so much. Once you do, you don't want to admit you've been had.
I put in an after hours order for 3 shares, $1000 of SPY at 332.60. Figured to balance out that higher buy.
DeleteSPY is down to 330.80. So that filled at already a loss, 332.60.
I'll see if this $2000 gets stuck bought too high. Or makes me feel better when the market rallies tomorrow for a short while.
Still plenty of cash I need to get into the market, so not a worry.
I answered on my dad, but your description appears to be accurate to a lot of followers.
DeleteLand: 81% of republicans view Donald as honest, and almost as many view him as a role model for their children. So most view him as a straight shooter and everybody else are the liars trying to undermine his presidency. We are talking about people who are in an Alternate Reality that can be pierced with accurate information.
DeleteI have heard a few college educated republicans refer to him as crazy, dishonest, and mean spirited, but voted for him anyway in 2016 and will vote for Trump again. It is mostly about their taxes and business regulations, and an opinion that is ingrained that Democrats reward free loaders. I view those republicans as being no more than 20%. They can at least see Donald for who he is and are not in denial.
While I believe a vaccine will be approved later this year or early next year, I would not hazard a guess which one. The vaccines are being rushed. No one really knows all the side effects until the vaccines are given to millions. That is when major problems developed in the swine flu vaccine. If major side effects show up in the Phase 3 trial, where the vaccine is given to 15K and a placebo to 15K, it is not going to be approved for injection into millions.
The Moderna vaccine put one recipient in the hospital with a serious side effect. That was at a higher dosage than what is being used now in trials. But, the question that I had when that happened, was no one really knows whether it was the dosage or the vaccine itself that caused a serious reaction requiring hospitalization.
Yeah, that 81% is telling.
DeleteNow the vaccine reality news is finally coming forward. A vaccine is possible, but it will take a while.
We're doing the holidays this year virtually. Virtual services and online prayer book. Virtual family visits. I won't have to get dressed up or do much cooking.
On the flip side - my energy stocks are not doing well. No where to drive to.
Left out a "not" as in can "not be pierced with accurate information in first paragraph in prior comment above. I frequently have brain malfunctions with that word. Sometimes I type "now" for "not"
DeleteI automatically read it with a not. I'm familiar with the non-pierceability Trumpites.
DeleteIt took about a week of tag team calling, me, my sister and niece, to get my dad to take covid seriously. Once he did, he did. But until then... too much fox in his brain.
I do 'not' for 'now' a lot.
Typo "I'm familiar with the non-pierceability OF Trumpites"
DeleteI dislike on days like today, how the buyable ETFs for big indices don't match the index.
ReplyDeleteSPX and SPY aren't down the same %s at times. It's just a short term artifact. But it makes it harder to use tools I usually do.
SPY and DIA aren't at their 50 day MAs yet.
Some items are up, a lot. Vacation areas like Disney and airlines and camper world.
ReplyDeleteSo there's rotation happening.
But it's not growth for value. Value's down less, but it's still selling off.
So there's where the exuberance is. Investors aren't giving up on the idea of value and buys to be had.
Walmart is down. That's been a go-to when the market is tanking. So that's not the usual pattern either. But it climbed strongly in this last rally and needed to sell off.
I bought too soon. Yay. Means there's likely to be more chance to buy more lower.
VIX didn't make it under 20 before reversing. Don't know what that means. Read an article this morning that I didn't fully understand saying the VIX to SPX move is similar to 2000 and not a good sign.
I bought SPX but need to pay attention to equal cap weight SPX and various indices you've pointed out. And individual stocks and sectors. SPX is no longer a general large cap mixed buy. It's buying into the tech at a high point.
Land: I was a bit busy near the close, using a small ball scatter buys in several dividend stocks that were down. An example would be a 5 share buy of CZNC at $16.65.
Deletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cznc
I probably went slightly over $1K in purchases today, concentrated in the last few minutes. I am not making a dent in my cash allocation which is still growing. My Fidelity account cash has grown to 42% of the total due to proceeds from bond, CD and treasury bill early redemptions and maturities.
Most stocks will not buck a downtrend like today including those that are reasonably priced based on realistic assumptions about the near future.
The article that you reference refers to a relatively rare phenomenon where the VIX and S & P 500 are strongly positively correlated. There was as I recall a lot of
strange positive correlation in the 1999 to early 2000 period where the VIX was not confirming the strong upside move in stocks. On many days, the VIX was up significantly with SPX during that period.
I would emphasize, however, that the pattern in 1999 was prolonged while the strong positive correlation lately, which I mentioned in a prior comment, is of relatively short duration and consequently less meaningful as a signal IMO. The VIX started to move up in August with rallies in SPX. That is an aberration.
This correlation has been a few days at a time usually reversed correlation by the next day.
DeleteThe VIX not yet making it under 20 gets my attention. Will there be another leg up before a real pullback happens? Or will it not get under 20 again until stable vix starts up?
Land: I call the positive correlation, where both the VIX and SPX go up, a non-Confirmation Event in the VIX model. The VIX movement is not confirming the parabolic rise in the S & P 500. That was true also in 1999 but there were far more data points then.
DeleteToday was a negative correlation day with the VIX rising .71, closing at 31.46. SPX declined by 2.78%.
The VIX intraday low after the March 2020 Trigger Event was at 20.97 (8/6/20) SPX closed that day at 3,349.16. The dominant trend in both was up until SPX closed at 3,580.84 (9/2/20), up 54.19 points from the prior close. The VIX rose that day closing at 26.57. Similar type action was present in 1999 and early 2000.
Land: As defined in my VIX model, the market is currently in an Unstable VIX Pattern where volatility moves in a whipsaw type pattern at elevated levels. During that patten, there could be temporary movement below 20 before volatility spikes again into the upper 20s or higher as now.
DeleteThe Stable Vix Pattern is a long way off IMO. To terminate the UVP, the VIX has to have sustained movement below 20 for 3 months.
I mentioned earlier that it has generally taken 1 year after a massive spike in volatility, as experienced last March, for the VIX to settle down and form a Stable Vix Pattern. The market until that time is more suitable for traders riding the whipsaw pattern.
Article link. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wall-street-fear-index-flashing-warning-sign-goldman-sachs-2020-9-1029568285#
ReplyDeleteAfter hours was at 333.60. Then moved down.
ReplyDeleteCause news astrazeneca vaccine study put on hold due to adverse reaction
https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/08/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-study-put-on-hold-due-to-suspected-adverse-reaction-in-participant-in-the-u-k/
Today, I will down about .15% on a total portfolio basis when the third party services price my bonds later this evening.
ReplyDeleteI had some stocks go up. Several of the BDCs had slight gains. Ares Capital is an example, rising just 8 cents. I would attribute those gains to individual investors buying the quarterly dividends that will soon go ex.
Ares has a 9/14/20 ex dividend date:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/arcc
One of the Canadian REITs that I own, Artis, went up in response to news. I own both ARESF, the USD priced ordinary units traded on the pink sheet exchange and the units priced in CADs:
Artis Real Estate Investment Trust
C$9.25 +C$0.36 +4.05%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ax.ut?countrycode=ca
This is the news:
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/artis-real-estate-investment-trust-announces-proposed-spin-off-of-its-retail-portfolio-and-strategic-debt-reduction-initiative-878065449.html
In the past, this kind of transaction has created a taxable event for U.S. shareholders even though it is tax free to Canadians, though I am really fuzzy on the specifics.
I will spend a minute during the weekdays looking at the WSJ page that lists dividend announcements and stock about to go ex dividend. The page is available without a subscription.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/dividends
The information on that page will change each weekday. Currently, it shows dividend declarations made yesterday and securities that go ex dividend or ex interest tomorrow 9/10. The ex interest applies to exchange traded bonds.
The primary purpose is to find income paying securities that have been overlooked which I then research.
I will also note declarations and ex dates for securities that already owned.
In the declaration section, I own Pembina Pipeline (PBA) and the CEF Tri-Continental (TY).
In the ex dividend section, I own the stock CEFs AIO and LGI which pay monthly; the BDC Fidus (FDUS); the stock CEF RMT which pays quarterly; and the regional banks FHN, UBSI (recently bought and not yet discussed), and FISI (recently discussed).
I mentioned in a prior comment that proceeds from fixed income issuer optional redemptions and maturities have expanded my cash balance to 42% of my Fidelity taxable account portfolio. This is not an opportune time for a cash buildup since the MM fund pays .01% and reinvestment options are not favorable given my objectives. Consequently, the stock and stock fund buys that I have made over the past month have not yet come from the cash buildup, but are being funded entirely by new additions to cash which significantly exceed the outflow for new purchases.
The cash buildup in my Schwab taxable account is now up to 28%.
I mentioned in a prior comment investing about $1K yesterday, a chicken buy into the volatility spike. Those were either stock funds or individual stocks.
I also started in my Schwab account PPT, buying just 100 shares at $4.53. I own close to 500 shares in my Fidelity taxable account, and small position in two ROTH IRA accounts.
PPT is a leveraged bond CEF. I view it as simply a temporary repository for cash that would otherwise earn .01%.
Dividends are paid monthly, currently at $.035 per share. The net asset value per share closed at $4.8 yesterday.
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/PPT
Apartment Investment & Management Co. (AIV)
ReplyDelete$36.07 -$0.73 -1.98%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aiv
In this post, I discussed buying a few shares of this apartment REIT. (Item # 1.E.)
AIV initially rose today, reaching $37.14 after closing at $36.73 yesterday. The stock quickly reversed after the Goldman Sachs analyst lowered its recommendation to neutral from buy and reduced its PT to $41 from $48.
I do not have access to the GS report.
Apartment REITs are a bit dicey now due to concerns about rent collections.
AIV is a new name for me. I view it as a bond substitute and will consider adding a few shares when the purchases reduce my average cost per share which is currently at $36.07.
I was able to do some selective buying in the morning focusing on regional banks that were down in price. Most recovered during the day.
I bought 5 shares of stock CEF STK, which is an average down of another 5 share purchase made before the Nasdaq hit the skids. That was the only security that I bought today that was up when I bought.
Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund Inc. (STK):
$21.66 +$0.55 +2.61%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/stk
My purchase was at $21.53.
CEF Connect Page:
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/STK
I will discuss those purchases down the road.
The stock market did fade into the close.
++
Cohen's book is available on Scribd in case anyone subscribes and is interested. I read the introduction where Cohen expressed concern that one of the Trumpsters, incited by Donald and otherwise violent and deranged, would kill him or harm a member of his family. He discussed in the introduction receiving a large number of death threats which I view as credible. I don't believe he is paranoid either, since Donald regularly incites potentially violent people when attacking his opponents or critics.
Woodward's book, available on the 15th, will be more interesting and written by a reliable person which Cohen is not. I can only say that Cohen is more honest than Donald, which is not a compliment. Donald is IMO the most dishonest major political figure in U.S. history-no one else comes close.
I did nothing today. I checked regularly. Knew to buy early and at any point before 2pm, but didn't.
DeleteThe rotation takes me by surprise. Not 2% up, but 4-5% on tech stocks. I did not expect a big rally in tech stocks. I thought the 3 days meant there was agreement that they were overbought.
I am going to assume that when the market realizes an election is coming, it may be Biden, and he's not as stock friendly obsessed, there will be more pullback. The market looks ahead such a short distance.
---
I am now 48 for getting Mary Trump's book.
I don't think I need to read Woodwards. I believe by late Oct I will have heard every revelation on recording on the news, many times.
It answered definitely that Trump is playing dumb. He is dumb on understanding concepts, but on others he plays dumb. One of MSNBC's guests said the most important revelation is that Trump is too dumb for the job. He says that is shown by... his doing 18 interviews, with a journalist, by himself without guidance, before an election, all because he thinks he can own someone if he talks with him.
At least we know there were a few hours when he wasn't playing golf, or tweeting.
I would want to verify on Cohen, but I tend to believe him. He's tended to say "I don't know" to things that would work well for him to say he had a sensational story to tell. He appeared to have a "come to Jesus" moment so to speak. He was under a cult spell, and now articulates that he was, and what greed got him there. He's described in detail that revelation moment. That said, I'd still want to verify. I'm curious to read it sometime.
Fauci has death threats. I have no reason to disbelieve him. That increases my openness to believing other people experience the same. We already know that people seen against Trump, can get bombs in their mailboxes.
Woodward has recordings, which makes verification easy!
Trump's no causing panic excuse. Not letting people die is an even better way not to cause panic. He knew what would happen. He isn't attached to reality.
Land: Trump routinely tries to generate fear and panic when he believes it is in his political interest to do so. So I do not accept his statement that he lied about the pandemic in order to avoid panic. He was worried about how the pandemic would impact his reelection chances. And, no person actually performing the duties of President would lie about the seriousness of a pandemic.
DeleteTrump has been lying about the seriousness of the pandemic since it started and is continuing to do so.
The fact that he has acknowledged lying is important and may change a few votes among the fence sitters. Republicans and republican leaning independents are just too far gone into an alternate reality bubble.
Even now, there are millions of people who watch Fox and who believe Donald is honest, and consequently have refused to take precautions for themselves and family members. A 300K U.S. death toil from Covid-19 by year end looks realistic now.
Lying is what Trump does, as easy as breathing for him and almost as constant, and lying is what defines the core of his being. So it is not news to me at least that he lied to the American people as early as February about the seriousness of Covid-19.
What is really disgusting is that republican senators have come to his defense. It is just not an issue of remaining silent, as many do now when confronted with the latest of Trump's daily outrages, but actually approving of his lies about matters directly related to the health and safety of Americans.
Woodward tapes his interviews with consent.
Some Woodward quotes attributed to Fauci:
Referring to Trump, Fauci said "His sole purpose is to get reelected". Hardly newsworthy.
Fauci referred to Donald as "rudderless" and his "attention span is a minus number". Nothing new there either.
Woodward quotes Mattis saying that Trump is a danger to national security. Mattis resigned as defense secretary when "he was basically directed to do something that I thought went beyond stupid to felony stupid."
++
I will read Woodward's book if it is made available at Scribd.
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While I do not pay much attention to late night futures, the action so far is pointing to a decline tomorrow.
Just saw an ad for how strong a CIC he is. If he had something on Biden, it'd be dropped right around now? So this reveals the good news that at this moment... the GOP does not have much on Biden.
DeleteTrump is more aware of his lying than previously believed. He does all of it consciously. He doesn't have a concept of truth mattering, so he does it shamelessly. But he isn't unaware or uninformed. Except on anything requiring humanity in order to understand it.
"What is really disgusting is that republican senators have come to his defense. "
DeleteThat really is the bottom line.
Futures down at this hour... not enough to be sure what will happen in the morning...
Did I write already? It dawns that with Trump this upset by all the revelations, he'd be releasing whatever he has at Biden. Nothing's come out. So likely he & GOP don' have much at this time. That's a positive.
The Whistleblower from yesterday contends that Intel has been instructed to avoid reporting Russia's interference.
ReplyDeleteWhen Obama was President, Trump talked about BLS data being manipulated.
So it would not be difficult to believe that the current BLS data that doesn't match ADP, is being manipulated.
Land: I have no reason to believe that the BLS jobs data is being manipulated by Trump's political appointees. There are unusual problems in data collection due to the pandemic, plus the usual problem that is systemic when estimating any nationwide number.
DeleteThe data for new initial unemployment claims is hard data received from the states. For the week ending 9/5/20, BLS reported 884,000 new claims for unemployment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/10/us-weekly-jobless-claims-total-884000-vs-850000-expected.html
The statements contained in the whistleblower complaint, filed by the former principal Deputy Under Secretary in the Office of Intelligence and Analysis at DHS, claims that political appointees ordered information about Russia's interference in this year's election (on Donald's behalf) to be withheld and further ordered the downplaying of threats from white supremists.
PDF Complaint
https://intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/murphy_wb_dhs_oig_complaint9.8.20.pdf
Sold my 333.60 and 335.74 - six shares of SPY afterhours.
ReplyDeleteI was in a meeting during the afternoon so I'm selling lower in the downturn than ideal.
Market might rally, but on that weakness, I'll wait to decide when to buy more and what to buy.
I am surprised today wasn't a more neutral pause day before heading up tomorrow. Now not sure what tomorrow will bring.
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There's a couple posts from last night of mine that you haven't posted yet. Hopefully it's just not posted yet, rather than lost.
Land: I have posted all of your comments. There were two from last night that were published early this morning. Apparently you are still awake when I am sound asleep.
DeleteA new stimulus package before election day is not going to happen IMO.
I view the stock market as dangerous now.
I was a net seller today but I did buy a few stocks that are getting trashed.
I read a comment today from white woman from rural Pennsylvania, a former hairdresser, who said Donald was honest; she just "loves the man" and does everyone she knows; she trusted him; and "He’s just a regular person and that’s what we are." I read something into that last phrase. It is just mind boggling listening to the Trumpsters.
So, it's back to google being strange. Your posts are coming to my email. My posts are not.
DeleteNormally I see what I've posted, and if you've commented, by looking at my email inbox.
So it's not that google isn't forwarding. It's just being selective.
That's just odd.
So is the comment you saw today. He speaks like an uneducated racist dolt, is that what makes a supposed silver spoon baby into "regular people."
Stock market as dangerous?
So it's moved into a new place? It's been in unstable which is itself dangerous.
Definitely that rings a sense of accurate. The disjointed buying and selling that doesn't seem to have patterns that match to news events or thinking... I've been observing that.
Anything more the indicator?
The next 60 days have so many events to pressure on the market. If it comes back up more,
I'll sell a little IWM and TXN and GRMN. Otherwise, I'll hold to the other side. All div payers.
Off to pick up a library book on gallbladders my neighbor-friend mentioned. I hope by the time I read the Trump books, he's a goner!
SPX moved under it's 50 DMA. It's still quivilling near it, so remains to be seen whether it's a break downward, or recovers.
ReplyDeleteThe other day 9/8, SPX bounced at 330.xx. I'm not finding it on the chart to verify the cents? But I remember debating whether to buy more after having bought at 335 and 333, when it hit 330.xx for not that long.
LMT and MMM are up 2% and 1.5% which seems odd with no news blurbs.
LAZ is up 4% on it's AUM announcement this morning. I'm surprised it hasn't been doing better as EU recovers. Normally it's matched to Europe rather than USA. I'm underwater 38%. Haven't added yet to my whopping $1000 position. (Now $600.)
Land: I am up a bit today since my stock portfolio is heavily weighted in value stocks which are outperforming the growth stocks.
DeleteTech is dragging the market down.
Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares (VTV)
$105.62 +0.33 (+0.31%)
As of 2:22PM EDT
I did some light buying about an hour ago and will wait to see what happens near the close before deciding whether to enter more small ball orders.
The S & P 500 is currently at 3,327.25, down -11.94 at 2:24 E.D.T.
On 2/19/20, that index closed at 3386.15 and at 2,237.40 on 3/23/20. This is not rational.
Isn't think "a little down, a little up" more like how the market's gone down in the past (both pullbacks, and crashes)?
ReplyDeleteInstead of the modern day huge quick slides down in multiple straight days?
I think that's what's looking so strange. The market is acting like it used to...?
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/09/aod-bk-csco-ebgef-ed-fax-fivg-gbdc-hbnc.html