Note to Readers:
I have lost the post that contained the snapshots of regional bank trades.
Whenever I have a new trade, I would include a snapshot in that October 2011 post. Google just created a new blogger interface. When I hit the edit icon on that post, nothing happened. So I scrolled through the posts until I found it and hit the new revert to draft button so I could add a snapshot. When that happened all snapshots since 2014 were deleted by Google. When I hit publish, even that post was deleted by Google. So it is gone.
The new interface also screwed up my snapshots since they would no longer fit on the page. I had to go back and downsize them.
+++++
Economy:
I have lost the post that contained the snapshots of regional bank trades.
Whenever I have a new trade, I would include a snapshot in that October 2011 post. Google just created a new blogger interface. When I hit the edit icon on that post, nothing happened. So I scrolled through the posts until I found it and hit the new revert to draft button so I could add a snapshot. When that happened all snapshots since 2014 were deleted by Google. When I hit publish, even that post was deleted by Google. So it is gone.
The new interface also screwed up my snapshots since they would no longer fit on the page. I had to go back and downsize them.
+++++
Economy:
Coronavirus stimulus updates: Relief bill stalls, Trump mulls executive order (8/7/2020); Mnuchin Says Trump to Take Executive Action After Talks Stall
Donald believes that he has the authority to appropriate money without congressional approval and then spend the money to increase unemployment benefits. Trump says he may suspend payroll tax collection without Congress: 'I have the absolute right' | Fox Business Donald is also considering a suspension of payroll tax collection. In Trump's America, Donald can do whatever he wants, as he has claimed many times.
Any Executive Order suspending the payroll tax or appropriating money to pay for extra unemployment benefits will be challenged in the courts. My prediction is that enforcement of those orders will be enjoined, meaning that nothing will happen other than Donald's posturing for political purposes. So if that prediction proves to be prescient, the implications will be serious for the economy assuming Congress is unable to reach any deal.
ADP reported that private employers added 167K jobs last month. ADP National Employment Report The consensus estimate was for a 1.9M gain. "Job gains totaled 4.3 million in June and 3.3 million in May after a loss of 19.4 million in April, according to ADP data." Private sector job growth slows sharply in July: ADP - MarketWatch
U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.186 million, vs 1.423 million expected This was for the week ending 8/1 and represented the 20th consecutive week where new initial claims exceeded 1M.
Notwithstanding the new initial unemployment claims filed during July and the ADP report, the federal government claimed that the economy added 1.763M jobs in July. Employment Situation Summary The U-6 number declined to 16.5% from 18%. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization; Jobs report July 2020 It is not possible IMO to reconcile this report with other data.
The July ISM manufacturing index rose to 54.2 from 52.6. The consensus was at 54. The new orders component rose 5.1 to 61.5. Employment remained in contraction territory at 44.3, up from 42.1 in June. July 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
The July ISM services index rose to 58.1. The new orders component rose 6.1 points to 67.7. Service side of the U.S. economy shows surprising growth in July, ISM finds, but employment worsens - MarketWatch
For the First Time Ever, Uncle Sam’s Aid to U.S. Tops Quarterly GDP - Barron's During the second quarter, the Federal Reserve and U.S. government pumped about $5 trillion into the economy, more than nominal GDP of $4.85 trillion. U.S. stocks "hit two times nominal GDP, eclipsing the previous record of 1.87 times at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000’s first quarter." This article cites Joe Carson's blog: Biggest Decline In Nominal Output & Income In Our Lifetime.
Banks Are Making It Harder to Get a Loan. Why That’s Bad News. - Barron's This article discusses the FED survey of bank lending practices. This is a link to the July survey: The Fed - July 2020 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
Consumers hold the key to an economic recovery and right now they’re very anxious - MarketWatch
Fed's Mester says reopening phase may be more protracted than many anticipated - Reuters
Consumers hold the key to an economic recovery and right now they’re very anxious - MarketWatch
Fed's Mester says reopening phase may be more protracted than many anticipated - Reuters
+++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
A stock market correction may be imminent, JPMorgan says.-MarketWatch
In Work-From-Home Era, Income Investors Need to Do Homework on Office REITs - Barron's
Retail rents plummet across New York City, a warning for other areas
Hyatt Hotels' revenue per room plunges 89% in Q2 - MarketWatch
Trump: Microsoft should pay 'key money' to Treasury for TikTok deal; TikTok Microsoft deal: State media says China could retaliate Donald asserted that Microsoft needs to pay a substantial sum to the U.S. for facilitating an acquisition of TikTok by Microsoft. Donald facilitated the purchase by threatening to block TikTok from the U.S. unless it is sold to a U.S. company. Donald has not said yet whether he expects a commission.
BP sets new low-carbon goals as it slashes dividend in half and reports $16.8 billion loss - MarketWatch
Ares Capital Corporation Announces June 30, 2020 Financial Results and Declares Third Quarter 2020 Dividend of $0.40 Per Share ("For the second quarter of 2020, Ares Capital reported GAAP net income of $277 million or $0.65 per share (basic and diluted), Core EPS(2) of $0.39 per share (basic and diluted), net investment income of $165 million or $0.39 per share (basic and diluted), and net realized and unrealized gains of $112 million or $0.26 per share." Net asset value per share was reported at $15.83, down from $17.32 as of 12/31/2019 but up from $15.58 as of 3/31/20) I own shares.
TCG BDC, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2020 Financial Results and Declares Third Quarter 2020 Regular Dividend of $0.32 Per Common Share and Special Dividend of $0.05 per Common Share (Net asset value per share reported at $14.8, up from $14.18 as of 3/31/20; NII per share at $.38; decreased regular dividend from $.37 to $.32 but added for this quarter a 5 cent special dividend) I own shares.
Square (SQ) earnings Q2 2020 Investors responded positively (Close 8/5/2020: SQ $146.55 +$9.72 +7.10%)
New Mountain Finance Corporation Announces Financial Results for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2020 (NII per share = $.3 adjusted and $.28 non-adjusted; net asset value per share = $11.63, up from $11.14 as of 3/31/20; declared a quarterly dividend of $.30 per share; invested "in 109 portfolio companies, with a weighted average YTM at Cost of approximately 8.6%)" I own shares.
Manulife reports 2Q20 net income of $0.7 billion, core earnings of $1.6 billion, a strong LICAT capital ratio of 155%, and an expense efficiency ratio of 48.9% Manulife Financial EPS beats by C$0.17- Seeking Alpha; Manulife declares common share dividend I own shares.
Retail rents plummet across New York City, a warning for other areas
Hyatt Hotels' revenue per room plunges 89% in Q2 - MarketWatch
Trump: Microsoft should pay 'key money' to Treasury for TikTok deal; TikTok Microsoft deal: State media says China could retaliate Donald asserted that Microsoft needs to pay a substantial sum to the U.S. for facilitating an acquisition of TikTok by Microsoft. Donald facilitated the purchase by threatening to block TikTok from the U.S. unless it is sold to a U.S. company. Donald has not said yet whether he expects a commission.
BP sets new low-carbon goals as it slashes dividend in half and reports $16.8 billion loss - MarketWatch
Ares Capital Corporation Announces June 30, 2020 Financial Results and Declares Third Quarter 2020 Dividend of $0.40 Per Share ("For the second quarter of 2020, Ares Capital reported GAAP net income of $277 million or $0.65 per share (basic and diluted), Core EPS(2) of $0.39 per share (basic and diluted), net investment income of $165 million or $0.39 per share (basic and diluted), and net realized and unrealized gains of $112 million or $0.26 per share." Net asset value per share was reported at $15.83, down from $17.32 as of 12/31/2019 but up from $15.58 as of 3/31/20) I own shares.
TCG BDC, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2020 Financial Results and Declares Third Quarter 2020 Regular Dividend of $0.32 Per Common Share and Special Dividend of $0.05 per Common Share (Net asset value per share reported at $14.8, up from $14.18 as of 3/31/20; NII per share at $.38; decreased regular dividend from $.37 to $.32 but added for this quarter a 5 cent special dividend) I own shares.
Square (SQ) earnings Q2 2020 Investors responded positively (Close 8/5/2020: SQ $146.55 +$9.72 +7.10%)
New Mountain Finance Corporation Announces Financial Results for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2020 (NII per share = $.3 adjusted and $.28 non-adjusted; net asset value per share = $11.63, up from $11.14 as of 3/31/20; declared a quarterly dividend of $.30 per share; invested "in 109 portfolio companies, with a weighted average YTM at Cost of approximately 8.6%)" I own shares.
Manulife reports 2Q20 net income of $0.7 billion, core earnings of $1.6 billion, a strong LICAT capital ratio of 155%, and an expense efficiency ratio of 48.9% Manulife Financial EPS beats by C$0.17- Seeking Alpha; Manulife declares common share dividend I own shares.
Fidus Investment (FDUS) NII beats by $0.06, beats on total investment income -Seeking Alpha; Fidus Investment Corporation Announces Second Quarter 2020 Financial Results (Board declared a quarterly dividend of $.30 per share; NII per share = $.38; Net asset value per share at $15.39; estimated spillover income of $1.12 per share) The Stock Jocks' response yesterday was positive: FDUS $10.25 +$1.44 +16.35% I own shares.
CubeSmart FFO beats by $0.02, beats on revenue-Seeking Alpha; CubeSmart Reports Second Quarter 2020 Results (FFO per share = $.41; same-store occupancy at 93%, down from 94%: "As of July 31, 2020, same-store occupancy was 94.5% compared to 93.5% as of July 31, 2019"). I own shares. The Stock Jocks responded favorably to this report yesterday. CUBE $30.21 +$1.07 +3.67%
+++++
Trump:
Trump Organization under investigation for 'insurance and bank fraud,' filing suggests
Donald claimed last week that he has the authority to address mail-in voting by executive order. Trump claims the right to issue an executive order on vote-by-mail-POLITICO The executive order will first need to repeal Article 1, Section 4, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution, which specifically grants that authority to the states which can be overridden only by Congress. The President has no role whatsoever.
Trump Organization under investigation for 'insurance and bank fraud,' filing suggests
Donald claimed last week that he has the authority to address mail-in voting by executive order. Trump claims the right to issue an executive order on vote-by-mail-POLITICO The executive order will first need to repeal Article 1, Section 4, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution, which specifically grants that authority to the states which can be overridden only by Congress. The President has no role whatsoever.
 |
| Hereby Deleted by Executive Order: Signed Donald I, the first of his line, Anointed by God As the Chosen One and an Extremely Stable Genius that Knows Everything |
Role of Congress in Regulating Federal Elections | Constitution Annotated | Congress.gov | Library of Congress The fact that the President has no power to make or alter the election rules and procedures mandated by the States or Congress is irrelevant in Trump's America, where Donald has the power to do whatever he wants.
Nevada passes bill to mail all voters ballots amid coronavirus pandemic - CBS News
This is how Donald described the law passed by the Nevada legislature and signed by Nevada's governor:
Trump campaign sues Nevada over expanded mail-in voting | TheHill
Trump pledges lawsuit to block mail-in voting in Nevada - POLITICO
My idea on Donald's executive order is not to ban mail-in ballots since some Trumpsters may actually want to vote that way during a pandemic, particularly the old white folks with beer bellies.
Instead, Donald could simply proclaim than any mail-in vote for Biden was cast by an illegal or was a fake ballot manufactured and filled out by Chinese communists. And, of course, any vote for Donald will be counted as legal as coming from real Americans.
Trump suddenly supports mail-in voting-for the key swing state of Florida - MarketWatch
Don the Authoritarian views compliance with Supreme Court decisions as optional for him. Opinion | Trump didn’t like rulings on DACA. So he’s defying them. - The Washington Post
Demagogue Don has claimed on many occasions that he can do whatever he wants as President.
The 5 republican Justices have given Donald the green light to repurpose money appropriated by Congress, thereby allowing the President to usurp the Constitutional powers specifically delegated to Congress. Supreme Court ruling hands Trump a big victory on funding his border wall - Vox
Trump suggests freezing evictions and payroll-tax collection through executive orders - MarketWatch
In her seminal book "The Authoritarian Dynamic", Dr. Karen Stenner predicted the rise of authoritarism in western democracies. The Authoritarian Dynamic Explained; Authoritarianism: The Terrifying Trait That Trump Triggers - Pacific Standard; Opinion | Democracy Is in Grave Danger at This Moment- The New York Times In her book, Stenner made the following observations: (1) "Disagreement, dissent, and disobedience; determination of the 'common good' by debate and negotiation between partisans of competing worldviews: none of this comprehensible, let alone palatable from the authoritarian perspective." and (2) Authoritarians are best understood as "simple-minded avoiders of complexity".
This is ‘the cognitive test Trump didn’t pass’: Internet reacts to president’s ‘shocking’ Axios interview - MarketWatch
Trump’s Latest Interview Was Full Of False Claims & Baffling Moments
Trump's Mind-Numbing Interview with Axios | NowThis - YouTube
Trump’s Train-Wreck Interview with Jonathan Swan on HBO | The Tonight Show - YouTube
This Presidential Candidate Is Not Well | The Daily Social Distancing Show - YouTube
Nevada passes bill to mail all voters ballots amid coronavirus pandemic - CBS News
This is how Donald described the law passed by the Nevada legislature and signed by Nevada's governor:
Trump pledges lawsuit to block mail-in voting in Nevada - POLITICO
Nevada's Secretary of State Cegavske told Nevada's lawmakers that there was no evidence of a fraudulent ballot being cast in the June 2020 primary when Nevada mailed all active voters absentee ballots.
My idea on Donald's executive order is not to ban mail-in ballots since some Trumpsters may actually want to vote that way during a pandemic, particularly the old white folks with beer bellies.
Instead, Donald could simply proclaim than any mail-in vote for Biden was cast by an illegal or was a fake ballot manufactured and filled out by Chinese communists. And, of course, any vote for Donald will be counted as legal as coming from real Americans.
Trump suddenly supports mail-in voting-for the key swing state of Florida - MarketWatch
Don the Authoritarian views compliance with Supreme Court decisions as optional for him. Opinion | Trump didn’t like rulings on DACA. So he’s defying them. - The Washington Post
Demagogue Don has claimed on many occasions that he can do whatever he wants as President.
The 5 republican Justices have given Donald the green light to repurpose money appropriated by Congress, thereby allowing the President to usurp the Constitutional powers specifically delegated to Congress. Supreme Court ruling hands Trump a big victory on funding his border wall - Vox
Trump suggests freezing evictions and payroll-tax collection through executive orders - MarketWatch
In her seminal book "The Authoritarian Dynamic", Dr. Karen Stenner predicted the rise of authoritarism in western democracies. The Authoritarian Dynamic Explained; Authoritarianism: The Terrifying Trait That Trump Triggers - Pacific Standard; Opinion | Democracy Is in Grave Danger at This Moment- The New York Times In her book, Stenner made the following observations: (1) "Disagreement, dissent, and disobedience; determination of the 'common good' by debate and negotiation between partisans of competing worldviews: none of this comprehensible, let alone palatable from the authoritarian perspective." and (2) Authoritarians are best understood as "simple-minded avoiders of complexity".
This is ‘the cognitive test Trump didn’t pass’: Internet reacts to president’s ‘shocking’ Axios interview - MarketWatch
Trump’s Latest Interview Was Full Of False Claims & Baffling Moments
Trump's Mind-Numbing Interview with Axios | NowThis - YouTube
Trump’s Train-Wreck Interview with Jonathan Swan on HBO | The Tonight Show - YouTube
This Presidential Candidate Is Not Well | The Daily Social Distancing Show - YouTube
The Trumpster Tucker Carlson was very upset that anyone would dare to discover that his chief writer had posted clearly racist remarks:
Tucker Carlson's top writer quits after secretly posting racist and sexist remarks in online forum; Tucker Carlson slams critics of former top writer, announces vacation - Business Insider
He vented his anger against Obama:
Tucker Carlson calls Obama 'one of the sleaziest and most dishonest figures' in US political history | TheHill;
Tucker Carlson Calls Barack Obama a ‘Greasy Politician’ Who ‘Desecrated’ John Lewis’ Funeral Donald did not attend the funeral. That was payback, as Donald said in his Axios interview last week, for Lewis refusing to attend his inauguration.
DHS analyzed protester communications, raising questions about previous statements by senior department official - The Washington Post
AP FACT CHECK: Trump's election agitations and distortions
Barr Makes It Official—He’s Trump’s New “Fixer”
Key impeachment inquiry witness says nation's values threatened under Trump
Trump continues to promote this canard: PolitiFact | Donald Trump draws false distinction between absentee, mail-in voting Mary Trump is right when she claimed that Donald enjoyed lying. I believe it feeds his need to feel superior to millions who are easily manipulated by demonstrably false statements.
The President's Trumped-Up Claims of Voter Fraud - FactCheck.org Trump is an authoritarian. It should surprise no one that he continually tries to undermine institutions and activities that are fundamental and essential to a properly functioning democracy. In that effort, he has the support of the republican party.
This is common in Trump's America: Viral Video Manipulates Pelosi's Words - FactCheck.org
The Federal Clampdown On Portland Shows Just How Fragile Our Democracy Is | FiveThirtyEight
Portland protests against police brutality, anti-Black racism continue for 69th day - oregonlive.com
He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What's His Forecast For 2020? | NYT Opinion - YouTube
After Trump fired his predecessor in May, acting State Department IG says he is leaving too - Reuters They can not be an independent Inspector General in Trump's America.
++++
Covid-19 Updates:
Tucker Carlson's top writer quits after secretly posting racist and sexist remarks in online forum; Tucker Carlson slams critics of former top writer, announces vacation - Business Insider
He vented his anger against Obama:
Tucker Carlson calls Obama 'one of the sleaziest and most dishonest figures' in US political history | TheHill;
Tucker Carlson Calls Barack Obama a ‘Greasy Politician’ Who ‘Desecrated’ John Lewis’ Funeral Donald did not attend the funeral. That was payback, as Donald said in his Axios interview last week, for Lewis refusing to attend his inauguration.
DHS analyzed protester communications, raising questions about previous statements by senior department official - The Washington Post
AP FACT CHECK: Trump's election agitations and distortions
Barr Makes It Official—He’s Trump’s New “Fixer”
Key impeachment inquiry witness says nation's values threatened under Trump
Trump continues to promote this canard: PolitiFact | Donald Trump draws false distinction between absentee, mail-in voting Mary Trump is right when she claimed that Donald enjoyed lying. I believe it feeds his need to feel superior to millions who are easily manipulated by demonstrably false statements.
The President's Trumped-Up Claims of Voter Fraud - FactCheck.org Trump is an authoritarian. It should surprise no one that he continually tries to undermine institutions and activities that are fundamental and essential to a properly functioning democracy. In that effort, he has the support of the republican party.
This is common in Trump's America: Viral Video Manipulates Pelosi's Words - FactCheck.org
The Federal Clampdown On Portland Shows Just How Fragile Our Democracy Is | FiveThirtyEight
Portland protests against police brutality, anti-Black racism continue for 69th day - oregonlive.com
He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What's His Forecast For 2020? | NYT Opinion - YouTube
After Trump fired his predecessor in May, acting State Department IG says he is leaving too - Reuters They can not be an independent Inspector General in Trump's America.
Covid-19 Updates:
U.S: As of Friday 8/7/2020
Trump says U.S. may have coronavirus vaccine 'far in advance' of end of the year
The man who warned in 2018 that America was unprepared for a pandemic says: ‘The U.S. squandered every possible opportunity to control the coronavirus’ - MarketWatch
55% of coronavirus patients still have neurological problems three months later: study - MarketWatch, referring to this study: Cerebral Micro-Structural Changes in COVID-19 Patients-An MRI-based 3-month Follow-up Study - EClinicalMedicine
'Peaceful protest': Trump defends audience at Bedminster golf club (most of the audience were not wearing face masks, nor were any of them practicing social distancing)
Based on the revelations in the following linked NYT article, Pelosi said that she had no confidence in Dr. Deborah Birx. Inside Trump’s Failure: The Rush to Abandon Leadership Role on the Virus - The New York Times
Poor Dr. Birx. Telling the truth, which Trump does not want anyone to know, will draw the Duck's ire: Trump attacks Dr. Birx after she said U.S. reached 'new phase' in coronavirus fight
Fauci defends Birx warning about a ‘new phase’ in U.S. - The Washington Post
This is to be expected from Trumpsters: Dr. Fauci says his daughters need security as his family continues to get death threats
There are a large number of videos showing flagrant violations of mask-wearing and social distancing regulations. N.J. sees spike in COVID-19 cases as residents slack off on masks and social distancing
Nashville had an example last weekend and numerous other examples. Nashville police action is under review after Saturday night house party | News | wsmv.com; The party continues on lower Broadway despite bar closures and mask mandate | WKRN News 2
Doctor Don took issue with what Doctor Fauci had to say, making the asinine and false assertion, once again, that there were more cases since there was more testing.
Doofus Don's earlier tweet on the same subject matter indicates that Donald failed math at Trump University:
Since he keeps repeating that lie, Donald must believe it works on the intended audience.
Based on the revelations in the following linked NYT article, Pelosi said that she had no confidence in Dr. Deborah Birx. Inside Trump’s Failure: The Rush to Abandon Leadership Role on the Virus - The New York Times
Poor Dr. Birx. Telling the truth, which Trump does not want anyone to know, will draw the Duck's ire: Trump attacks Dr. Birx after she said U.S. reached 'new phase' in coronavirus fight
Fauci defends Birx warning about a ‘new phase’ in U.S. - The Washington Post
This is to be expected from Trumpsters: Dr. Fauci says his daughters need security as his family continues to get death threats
There are a large number of videos showing flagrant violations of mask-wearing and social distancing regulations. N.J. sees spike in COVID-19 cases as residents slack off on masks and social distancing
Nashville had an example last weekend and numerous other examples. Nashville police action is under review after Saturday night house party | News | wsmv.com; The party continues on lower Broadway despite bar closures and mask mandate | WKRN News 2
Doctor Don took issue with what Doctor Fauci had to say, making the asinine and false assertion, once again, that there were more cases since there was more testing.
Trump said Covid-19 testing 'creates more cases.' We did the math - STAT;
'Continued Kindergarten-Level Logic': As Covid Cases Surge Across US, Trump Repeats False Claim Rise Is Result of More Testing | Common Dreams News;
Fact check: No, more testing isn't the reason US coronavirus numbers are getting worse
'Continued Kindergarten-Level Logic': As Covid Cases Surge Across US, Trump Repeats False Claim Rise Is Result of More Testing | Common Dreams News;
Fact check: No, more testing isn't the reason US coronavirus numbers are getting worse
Why the Pandemic Is So Bad in America - The Atlantic
Report: Coronavirus infected scores of children and staff at Georgia sleep-away camp ("A new report suggests that children of all ages are susceptible to coronavirus infection and may also spread it to others") Doctor Don, after burning the midnight oil reading medical books and studying intently data published about Covid-19 in medical journals, concluded that children are "almost immune" from infections, nor transmit the disease to others. Trump: Young People 'Almost Immune' to Coronavirus. WHO Chief: No.; Children Often Carry More Coronavirus than Adults Do: Study | The Scientist Magazine® We will find out soon enough.
More than 100 Mississippi students quarantined after classmates tested positive for COVID-19 shortly after school reopened | TheHill
Doctor Don says children are "virtually immune". Trump pushes reopening by saying children 'immune' (8/5/2020)
Doctor Don says children are "virtually immune". Trump pushes reopening by saying children 'immune' (8/5/2020)
As of 7/31/2020, more than 330,000 children have been diagnosed with Covid-19. Obesity, race play roles in severe COVID-19 illness among kids
Facebook removes Trump's post falsely claiming children are 'almost immune' to Covid-19; Facebook removes first coronavirus misinformation post by Trump Very few of Trump's tweets could survive a fact-check. Trump lies all of the time about matters relating to the pandemic and routinely spreads misinformation about it. That has no negative repercussions in his approval rating among Republicans, most of whom view him as honest and a role model for their children who hopefully will not become infected attending in-person classrooms in republican controlled school districts and states where mask-wearing is optional.
CDC: Children Can Develop Severe Cases of the Coronavirus | Health News | US News (8/7/20)
On the First Day of School, an Indiana Student Tests Positive for Coronavirus
On the First Day of School, an Indiana Student Tests Positive for Coronavirus
After Plummeting, the Virus Soars Back in the Midwest (8/1/20)
Coronavirus cases are climbing in Midwest states with previously low infections
PolitiFact | Who are the doctors in the viral hydroxychloroquine video?
Coronavirus cases are climbing in Midwest states with previously low infections
PolitiFact | Who are the doctors in the viral hydroxychloroquine video?
+++
Donald claims to have a 96% approval rating among republicans
While that is probably a bit high, his approval rating among Republicans is probably no lower than 90%. And, that needs to be remembered by all U.S. voters, who are non-Trumpsters, for as long as they live.
Demagogue Don is tweeting most every day his false claims about mail-in voting, which he equates with stealing the election unless, of course, the vote is cast for him. This is one from 8/3/20:
In a recent role, 76% of those voting for Trump in 2016 believe that the U.S. is handling the pandemic better than other countries or as well.
 |
| 8/3/20 Tweet |
Demagogue Don is tweeting most every day his false claims about mail-in voting, which he equates with stealing the election unless, of course, the vote is cast for him. This is one from 8/3/20:
Doofus Don claims Biden is "against God"and will "hurt the Bible" Donald, the Extremely Stable Genius, also claimed that Biden was against energy. Donald better hope there is no God sitting in judgment on him.
Trump appointed a mega-donor to be Postmaster General, who, upon assuming control, cut back on funding for timely mail deliveries.
Despot Don, the unquestioned leader of the republican party who can not be criticized by the True Believers, is also attempting to manipulate the results of the U.S. Census that will result in an undercount of hispanic and black voters. How Trump hopes the census ending early will help him politically - Vox; Opinion | Trump Is Plotting Against the Census. Here’s Why. - The New York Times; Trump Issues Memo On The Census And Unauthorized Immigrants : NPR
Jerry Falwell Jr.’s Long String Of Scandals He is a committed Trumpster though. The latest one is probably his best, the one with the racy photo with his pants unzipped, with his arm around the waist of a young woman, and his speech impaired phone call trying to explain it.
+++++
1. Small Ball:
Small Ball Rules:
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission-free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4)Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved:
Small Ball Rules:
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission-free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4)Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved:
For some purchases, I scrap (1) above and substitute a purchase restriction that permits purchases when the price lowers my existing cost per share.
The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield. When this works, I end up with less at-risk money-producing income at or near the highest yield.
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase. The strategy is primarily one for bear markets that will be characterized by strong cyclical rallies and declines.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure. Risk is also controlled through small odd lot trades
A. Started ASB-Bought 10 at $12.35; 5 at $11.9:
Quote: Associated Banc-Corp.
Closing Price 8/7/20: ASB +$13.87 +$0.69 +5.24%
"Associated Banc-Corp (NYSE: ASB) has total assets of $36 billion and is one of the top 50 publicly traded U.S. bank holding companies. Headquartered in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Associated is a leading Midwest banking franchise, offering a full range of financial products and services from more than 240 banking locations serving more than 120 communities throughout Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota, and commercial financial services in Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Texas."
ASB | Associated Banc-Corp. Analyst Estimates
SEC Filings
I mentioned this purchase in a 7/24/20 comment.
Average Cost Per Share: $12.2
Dividend: Quarterly at $.18, last raised from $.17, effective for the 2019 4th quarter.
Next Ex Dividend: 8/31/20
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.9%
5 Year Financials:
ASB 2019 Annual Report at page 34
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): Associated Banc-Corp Reports Second Quarter 2020 Earnings of $0.94 Per Common Share Including the Gain on Sale of Associated Benefits and Risk Consulting
Net income for the quarter was reported at $145M or $.94 per share. Excluding the gain realized from selling a business, E.P.S. was $.26 per share.
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $16.11
Net Interest Margin: 2.49%
Quotes from Press Release:
"The second quarter 2020 provision for credit losses was $61 million, up from $53 million in the prior quarter and up from $8 million in the same period last year, driven by increased charge offs and further reserve builds.
Nonaccrual loans of $172 million were up $35 million from the prior quarter and up $5 million from the same period last year. The nonaccrual loan to total loans ratio was 0.69% in the second quarter, up from 0.56% in the prior quarter and down from 0.72% in the same period last year.
Net charge offs of $26 million were up $9 million from the prior quarter and up $13 million from the same period last year.
The Company’s capital position remains strong, with a CET1 capital ratio of 10.3% at June 30, 2020."
SEC Filed 2nd Quarter Earnings Presentation
ASB Non-Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks (rated Baa2/BB):
I currently have no interest in these securities. All of them are selling over their $25 par values.
Associated Banc-Corp. 6.125% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series C
"Associated Banc-Corp (NYSE: ASB) has total assets of $36 billion and is one of the top 50 publicly traded U.S. bank holding companies. Headquartered in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Associated is a leading Midwest banking franchise, offering a full range of financial products and services from more than 240 banking locations serving more than 120 communities throughout Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota, and commercial financial services in Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Texas."
ASB | Associated Banc-Corp. Analyst Estimates
SEC Filings
I mentioned this purchase in a 7/24/20 comment.
Average Cost Per Share: $12.2
Dividend: Quarterly at $.18, last raised from $.17, effective for the 2019 4th quarter.
Next Ex Dividend: 8/31/20
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.9%
5 Year Financials:
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): Associated Banc-Corp Reports Second Quarter 2020 Earnings of $0.94 Per Common Share Including the Gain on Sale of Associated Benefits and Risk Consulting
Net income for the quarter was reported at $145M or $.94 per share. Excluding the gain realized from selling a business, E.P.S. was $.26 per share.
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $16.11
Net Interest Margin: 2.49%
Quotes from Press Release:
"The second quarter 2020 provision for credit losses was $61 million, up from $53 million in the prior quarter and up from $8 million in the same period last year, driven by increased charge offs and further reserve builds.
Nonaccrual loans of $172 million were up $35 million from the prior quarter and up $5 million from the same period last year. The nonaccrual loan to total loans ratio was 0.69% in the second quarter, up from 0.56% in the prior quarter and down from 0.72% in the same period last year.
Net charge offs of $26 million were up $9 million from the prior quarter and up $13 million from the same period last year.
The Company’s capital position remains strong, with a CET1 capital ratio of 10.3% at June 30, 2020."
ASB Non-Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks (rated Baa2/BB):
I currently have no interest in these securities. All of them are selling over their $25 par values.
Associated Banc-Corp. 6.125% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series C
Associated Banc-Corp. 5.375% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series D
Associated Banc-Corp. 5.875% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series E
Associated Banc-Corp. 5.65% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series F This one was issued in June 2020. Prospectus
Associated Banc-Corp. 5.875% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series E
Associated Banc-Corp. 5.65% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series F This one was issued in June 2020. Prospectus
Closing Price 8/7/20: CSWC $14.57 +$ 0.21 +1.46%
Management: Internal
CSWC SEC Filings
Website: Capital Southwest
Dividend: Quarterly at $.41 (regular rate)($1.64 annually)
The next payment will include a $.10 per share special dividend.
For any BDC, no one should be surprised by a dividend cut.
Next Ex Dividend: 9/14/20
Average Cost Per Share This Account: $13.1
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 12.52% using regular penny rate and 15.58% with continuation of $.1 per quarter special dividend.
In the earnings presentation filed with the SEC at page 7, CSWC says it has an undistributed net investment ("UNI") income of $1.27 per share as of 6/30/20 and expects "to pay $.10 per share Supplemental Dividend per quarter going forward, subject to Board approval." The current UNI would run out in about 3 years at $.10 per quarter. Circumstances may change including an increase in nonaccruals that would cut that time period short.
Last Discussed: Item # 4.F. Started CSWC-Bought 10 at $13.3 (6/27/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): This report was released after this purchase.
NII per share = $.38 ($.4 before taxes*)
90% First Lien
Net Asset Value Per Share: $14.95, down from $15.13 as of 3/31/20 (see Capital Southwest Announces Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2020)
No new non-accruing loans
Management: Internal
CSWC SEC Filings
Website: Capital Southwest
Dividend: Quarterly at $.41 (regular rate)($1.64 annually)
The next payment will include a $.10 per share special dividend.
For any BDC, no one should be surprised by a dividend cut.
Next Ex Dividend: 9/14/20
Average Cost Per Share This Account: $13.1
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 12.52% using regular penny rate and 15.58% with continuation of $.1 per quarter special dividend.
In the earnings presentation filed with the SEC at page 7, CSWC says it has an undistributed net investment ("UNI") income of $1.27 per share as of 6/30/20 and expects "to pay $.10 per share Supplemental Dividend per quarter going forward, subject to Board approval." The current UNI would run out in about 3 years at $.10 per quarter. Circumstances may change including an increase in nonaccruals that would cut that time period short.
Last Discussed: Item # 4.F. Started CSWC-Bought 10 at $13.3 (6/27/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): This report was released after this purchase.
NII per share = $.38 ($.4 before taxes*)
90% First Lien
Net Asset Value Per Share: $14.95, down from $15.13 as of 3/31/20 (see Capital Southwest Announces Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2020)
No new non-accruing loans
Capital Southwest Announces Financial Results for First Fiscal Quarter Ended June 30, 2020
*I suspect, but have not confirmed, that CSWC is paying some federal income taxes on undistributed net investment income. I may look into this issue more when and if I become so inclined which is not my current condition.
*I suspect, but have not confirmed, that CSWC is paying some federal income taxes on undistributed net investment income. I may look into this issue more when and if I become so inclined which is not my current condition.
Closing Price 8/7 (ex dividend): IBM $124.96 +$0.47 +0.38%
IBM SEC Filings
IBM Consensus Analyst EPS
IBM Investor relations
The 1 share add reduced my average cost per share to $121.89 from $122.22.
I discussed this purchase in a 7/21/20 comment.
Current Position: 18+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $121.89
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.63 ($6.52 annually)
IBM Board Approves Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend
I view this stock primarily as a bond substitute. Harvesting the dividend and selling shares at whatever profit is available defines victory.
Last Ex Dividend: 8/7/20 (owned all shares as of)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes at less than $150
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.35%
Highest Cost Lots (excluding shares purchased with dividends): 1 at 144.68; 1 at $143.72; 1 at $142.25 (likely will be sold together when and if the price exceeds $145
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.G. Added 1 IBM at $95, 1 at $100; 1 at $102.75; 1 at $105.5; 1 at $92 (5/2/2020)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.B. Sold 2 IBM at $155.40 (2/16/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
This report was released after my last purchase.
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $2.18, beat by 9 cents
Revenues: $18.12B, down 5.4% Y-O-Y (or 3.9% on a constant currency basis), but beat the consensus forecast by $400M.
Discussed at IBM earnings and at IBM outlook remains cloudy at best as new CEO fails to plot the way forward - MarketWatch
IBM initially rose in response to this report on 7/21 but spent the day giving up its early price pop and finished in the red:
Closing Price 7/21 (initial response to report): IBM $126.06 -$0.31 -0.25% (day's range between $125.8 and $132.17 with the open at $131.16)
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Argus (7/21/20): Buy, raised from hold, with a new PT of $155.
Credit Suisse (7/21/20): Outperform with a 12 month PT of $155
Morningstar (7/20/20): 3 stars with a FV of $120
S & P (7/22/20): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $144 (reduced 2020 E.P.S. estimate to $11.28 from $11.95 and 2021 estimate to $12.56 from $13.25, with protracted recovery being the most likely scenario)
Maximum Position: 30 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must lower my average cost per share.
D. Eliminated D-Sold 3 at $74.04:
Dominion Energy Inc
Profit Snapshot: $24.97 (7/10 sell only)
Dominion lowered its earnings estimates and stated an intention to slash its dividend. Both actions resulted from the decisions to abandon the Atlantic Coast Pipeline Venture with Duke Energy and to sell its gas, transmission, and storage assets to Berkshire Hathaway.
IBM SEC Filings
IBM Consensus Analyst EPS
IBM Investor relations
The 1 share add reduced my average cost per share to $121.89 from $122.22.
I discussed this purchase in a 7/21/20 comment.
Current Position: 18+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $121.89
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.63 ($6.52 annually)
IBM Board Approves Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend
I view this stock primarily as a bond substitute. Harvesting the dividend and selling shares at whatever profit is available defines victory.
Last Ex Dividend: 8/7/20 (owned all shares as of)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes at less than $150
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.35%
Highest Cost Lots (excluding shares purchased with dividends): 1 at 144.68; 1 at $143.72; 1 at $142.25 (likely will be sold together when and if the price exceeds $145
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.G. Added 1 IBM at $95, 1 at $100; 1 at $102.75; 1 at $105.5; 1 at $92 (5/2/2020)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.B. Sold 2 IBM at $155.40 (2/16/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
This report was released after my last purchase.
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $2.18, beat by 9 cents
Revenues: $18.12B, down 5.4% Y-O-Y (or 3.9% on a constant currency basis), but beat the consensus forecast by $400M.
IBM initially rose in response to this report on 7/21 but spent the day giving up its early price pop and finished in the red:
Closing Price 7/21 (initial response to report): IBM $126.06 -$0.31 -0.25% (day's range between $125.8 and $132.17 with the open at $131.16)
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Argus (7/21/20): Buy, raised from hold, with a new PT of $155.
Credit Suisse (7/21/20): Outperform with a 12 month PT of $155
Morningstar (7/20/20): 3 stars with a FV of $120
S & P (7/22/20): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $144 (reduced 2020 E.P.S. estimate to $11.28 from $11.95 and 2021 estimate to $12.56 from $13.25, with protracted recovery being the most likely scenario)
Maximum Position: 30 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must lower my average cost per share.
D. Eliminated D-Sold 3 at $74.04:
Dominion Energy Inc
Profit Snapshot: $24.97 (7/10 sell only)
Dominion lowered its earnings estimates and stated an intention to slash its dividend. Both actions resulted from the decisions to abandon the Atlantic Coast Pipeline Venture with Duke Energy and to sell its gas, transmission, and storage assets to Berkshire Hathaway.
Dominion Energy Agrees to Sell Gas Transmission, Storage Assets to Berkshire Hathaway Energy-- Strategic Repositioning Toward 'Pure-Play' State-Regulated, Sustainability-Focused Utility Operations ("To reflect today's announcements, Dominion Energy is revising its 2020 operating earnings guidance. The company now expects 2020 operating earnings of $3.37 to $3.63 per share. The company's previous guidance was $4.25 to $4.60 per-share. . . The company now expects to target an approximately 65 percent payout ratio to be effective upon completion of the transaction. This new payout ratio implies a 2021 dividend payment of around $2.50 per share. The projected reduction in the annual dividend reflects the absence of income from the divested assets and a revision to the company's target payout ratio to align with best-in-class industry peers.")
The 3 share position was not worth the time to monitor since I was not going to add to it.
E. Started AVK-Bought 10 at $13.69:
Quote: AVK | Advent Convertible & Income Fund Overview
Closing Price 8/7/20: AVK $14.14 -$0.01 -0.07%
Leveraged: Yes at substantial levels
Sponsor's Website: Advent Convertible and Income Fund | Guggenheim Investments
SEC Filings
Sector Weightings as of 5/31/20:
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report period ending 4/30/20
Dividend: Monthly at $.1172 per share supported by ROC ($1.41 rounded annually)
Last Ex-Dividend: 7/14/20 (owned 10 as of)
Data Date of 7/13/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $15.16
Closing Market Price: $13.52
Discount: -10.82%
F. Started KW-Bought 10 at $14.89:
Quote: Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc.
Leveraged: Yes at substantial levels
SEC Filings
Sector Weightings as of 5/31/20:
Dividend: Monthly at $.1172 per share supported by ROC ($1.41 rounded annually)
Last Ex-Dividend: 7/14/20 (owned 10 as of)
Data Date of 7/13/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $15.16
Closing Market Price: $13.52
Discount: -10.82%
F. Started KW-Bought 10 at $14.89:
Quote: Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc.
Closing Price 8/7/20: KW $14.73 +$0.39 +2.72%
SEC Filings
Home | Kennedy Wilson
Investors | Kennedy Wilson
2019 Annual Report (KW has "an ownership interest in approximately 49 million square feet of property globally, including 29,705 multifamily rental units and 22.0 million square feet of commercial property. At December 31, 2019 and 2018, along with our equity partners, we held a portfolio with assets at a book value of approximately $13.3 billion and $11.3 billion. For the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018, these assets generated total revenues of approximately $1.0 billion and $1.0 billion.")
5 Year "Performance Metrics":
Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share, last raised from $.21 effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment.
Dividend Information | Kennedy Wilson
Last Ex-Dividend: 6/29/20
2019 Dividend Tax Classification:
This is my first purchase of KW's common stock.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): I viewed this report, released after my purchase, as unsatisfactory, which validates the go slow approach.
Kennedy Wilson Reports Second Quarter 2020 Results
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
I have previously owned KW's 7.75% SU baby bond that was redeemed by the issuer in 2017.
G. Started SMMV-Bought 5 at $28.96:
SEC Filings
Home | Kennedy Wilson
Investors | Kennedy Wilson
2019 Annual Report (KW has "an ownership interest in approximately 49 million square feet of property globally, including 29,705 multifamily rental units and 22.0 million square feet of commercial property. At December 31, 2019 and 2018, along with our equity partners, we held a portfolio with assets at a book value of approximately $13.3 billion and $11.3 billion. For the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018, these assets generated total revenues of approximately $1.0 billion and $1.0 billion.")
5 Year "Performance Metrics":
Dividend Information | Kennedy Wilson
Last Ex-Dividend: 6/29/20
2019 Dividend Tax Classification:
 |
| IRS Form 8937 |
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): I viewed this report, released after my purchase, as unsatisfactory, which validates the go slow approach.
Kennedy Wilson Reports Second Quarter 2020 Results
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
I have previously owned KW's 7.75% SU baby bond that was redeemed by the issuer in 2017.
G. Started SMMV-Bought 5 at $28.96:
Closing Price 8/7/2020: SMMV $30.86 +$0.40 +1.31%
Number of Holdings as of 7/31/20: 368
Some Top Holdings as of 8/5/20:
iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA Sm-Cp ETF (SMMV)-Morningstar-currently rated 5 stars
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
H. Started GLQ-Bought 10 at $11.37; 10 at $11.18:
Quote: Clough Global Equity Fund Overview -A Highly Leveraged Global CEF
Quote: Clough Global Equity Fund Overview -A Highly Leveraged Global CEF
Closing Price 8/7/20: GLQ $11.81 -$0.08 -0.67%
Sponsor's Website: Clough Global - GLQ ("Having a global, flexible mandate, the Fund will invest at least 80% in equity and equity-related securities in U.S. and non-U.S. markets, and the remainder in fixed income securities, including both corporate and sovereign debt, in both U.S. and non-U.S. markets.")
Leverage: Substantial
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 4/30/20)
Dividend: Monthly at $.1104 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 7/20/20 (owned as of)
Next Ex Dividend: 8/20/20
Data Date of 7/14/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.22
Closing Market Price: $11.37
Discount: -13.99%
Sourced from GLQ - CEF Connect
Some Top Holdings as of 6/30/20 (1% or higher weightings):
I. Started FIDI-Bought 10 at $16.56; 5 at $16.11; 5 at $15.91:
Quote: FIDI | Fidelity International High Dividend ETF Overview
Sponsor's Website: Clough Global - GLQ ("Having a global, flexible mandate, the Fund will invest at least 80% in equity and equity-related securities in U.S. and non-U.S. markets, and the remainder in fixed income securities, including both corporate and sovereign debt, in both U.S. and non-U.S. markets.")
Leverage: Substantial
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 4/30/20)
Dividend: Monthly at $.1104 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 7/20/20 (owned as of)
Next Ex Dividend: 8/20/20
Data Date of 7/14/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.22
Closing Market Price: $11.37
Discount: -13.99%
Sourced from GLQ - CEF Connect
Some Top Holdings as of 6/30/20 (1% or higher weightings):
I. Started FIDI-Bought 10 at $16.56; 5 at $16.11; 5 at $15.91:
Sponsor's Website: FIDI | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity
Expense Ratio: .39%
Average Cost Per Share (20 shares ): $16.28
Total Last Four Quarterly Dividends: $.687 per share
Dividend Yield Using Prior 4 Payments = 4.22% at $16.28
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Some Holdings as of 8/5/20:
J. Eliminated TPVG in Schwab Account-Sold 30 at $10.58:
I still own shares in other accounts. Eliminating a position in one account when shares are owned in multiple account is simply profit harvesting and the elimination is just a pare.
Quote: TPVG | TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Overview
Closing Price 8/7/20: TPVG $11.89 +$0.08 +0.68%
TPVG SEC Filings
Website: TriplePoint Venture Growth
History This Account:
Profit Snapshot: $94.3
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 6/15/20 (owned as of)
TPVG SEC Filings
Website: TriplePoint Venture Growth
History This Account:
Last Ex Dividend: 6/15/20 (owned as of)
Next Ex Dividend Date: 8/28/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): I discussed this report in an 8/5/2020 comment.
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Announces Second Quarter 2020 Financial Results
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 3.B. Added 5 TPVG at $11.1; 5 at $10.7; 5 at $8.2; 5 at $6.92; 2 at $5.35; 2 at $4.45; 2 at $4; 2 at $3.5; 2 at $2.99; 5 at $4.96 (4/11/2020) I still own those shares in my Fidelity account. I also still own shares in two Roth IRA accounts and 1 other taxable account.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Pared TPVG-Sold 14 shares at $15.61-Used Commission Free Trade (9/1/2019 Post)(profit = $46.33); Item # 2.A. Sold 74+ TPVG at $14.87 (7/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot= $246.43); Item # 4.C. Eliminated TPVG in Roth IRA Account (4/17/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $88.87); Item # 3.B.(4/14/19 Post)(profit = $71.76); Item 3.A. Sold 40 TPVG at $13.44-Schwab Account and Item #3B Sold 50 TPVG at $13.39 Vanguard Roth IRA (3/13/19 Post)(profit snapshots of $4.17 and $4.49 ); Item 2.B. Sold 50 TPVG at $13.39 (3/4/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $153.08); Item # 3 Sold 50 TPVG at $12.33 (1/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.48)
Trading Profits to Date: $800.47
Goal: Total Return in excess of the dividend payments. In other words, victory is defined as collecting dividends without losing money on the shares.
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 23; list of investments starts at page 72; unfunded commitment discussion list at page 61)
K. Added 3 OFS at $4.5:
I am in the hole on this one and may not be able to dig myself out.
Quote: OFS Capital Corp. (OFS)- A Mini Cap BDC
Closing Price 8/7/2020: OFS $4.8500 +$0.01 + 0.21%
2019 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 27 and ends at page 55)
OFS SEC Filings
Website: Homepage - OFS Capital
Management: External
Dividend: Quarterly at $.17 per share ($.68 annually), recently reduced from $.34 per share. Slashed 50%. On the positive side, sort of, the new penny rate was covered by net investment income in the second quarter.
Position this Account: 130+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $7.86
Dividend Yield at Current Rate: 8.65%
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, given the discount to net asset value per share.
Next Ex-Dividend Date: 9/22/20
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
6/30/20: $10.10
3/31/20: $ 9.71
12/31/19: $12.46
9/30/19: $12.74
6/30/19: $12.95 Page 2 10-Q
3/31/19 $13.04 10-Q
12/31/18 $13.10
6/30/18 $13.70
03/31/18 $13.67
12/31/17 $14.12
12/31/16 $14.82
12/31/15 $14.76
12/31/14 $14.24
12/31/13 $14.54
IPO Offering Price at $15 (November 2012) with proceeds after the underwriters' discount at $13.05 Final Prospectus Supplement
Last Discussed: Item # 3.E. Added 5 OFS at $9.66; 5 at $9.2; 5 at $8.7; 5 at $6; 5 at $5.65; 2 at $3.7; 10 at $3.79 (4/11/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"Net investment income per share declined $0.17 from the corresponding quarter in the prior year primarily due to an approximately $0.24 decline in net interest margin—total interest income less interest expense—per share. Weighted average yield on debt and Structured Finance Notes for the three months ended June 30, 2020, declined to 9.01% from 11.10% in the second quarter ending June 30, 2019, due to the Company's continuing shift to lower-yielding, first lien senior secured loans of larger borrowers, and well as the placement of our loans to Online Tech Stores, LLC and 3rd Rock Gaming Holding, LLC, with an aggregate cost of $37.1 million, on non-accrual status during the six months ended June 30, 2020. These factors adversely impacted the weighted-average yield by 1.1% and net interest margin by $0.08 per share compared to the prior year quarter. Our weighted-average interest costs increased to 5.26% from 4.98%, principally due to borrowings under our Unsecured Notes Due October 2026 and the BNP Facility, as well as an increase in uninvested cash, which reduced net interest margin by $0.10 per share." 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20 at page 56 (emphasis added)
Note the Y-O-Y plunge in net investment income per share:
There were some significant loans that went on non-accrual during the first six months:
(lists of investments starts at page 7 of the 10-Q)
2019 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 27 and ends at page 55)
OFS SEC Filings
Website: Homepage - OFS Capital
Management: External
Dividend: Quarterly at $.17 per share ($.68 annually), recently reduced from $.34 per share. Slashed 50%. On the positive side, sort of, the new penny rate was covered by net investment income in the second quarter.
Position this Account: 130+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $7.86
Dividend Yield at Current Rate: 8.65%
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, given the discount to net asset value per share.
Next Ex-Dividend Date: 9/22/20
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
6/30/20: $10.10
3/31/20: $ 9.71
12/31/19: $12.46
9/30/19: $12.74
6/30/19: $12.95 Page 2 10-Q
3/31/19 $13.04 10-Q
12/31/18 $13.10
6/30/18 $13.70
03/31/18 $13.67
12/31/17 $14.12
12/31/16 $14.82
12/31/15 $14.76
12/31/14 $14.24
12/31/13 $14.54
IPO Offering Price at $15 (November 2012) with proceeds after the underwriters' discount at $13.05 Final Prospectus Supplement
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"Net investment income per share declined $0.17 from the corresponding quarter in the prior year primarily due to an approximately $0.24 decline in net interest margin—total interest income less interest expense—per share. Weighted average yield on debt and Structured Finance Notes for the three months ended June 30, 2020, declined to 9.01% from 11.10% in the second quarter ending June 30, 2019, due to the Company's continuing shift to lower-yielding, first lien senior secured loans of larger borrowers, and well as the placement of our loans to Online Tech Stores, LLC and 3rd Rock Gaming Holding, LLC, with an aggregate cost of $37.1 million, on non-accrual status during the six months ended June 30, 2020. These factors adversely impacted the weighted-average yield by 1.1% and net interest margin by $0.08 per share compared to the prior year quarter. Our weighted-average interest costs increased to 5.26% from 4.98%, principally due to borrowings under our Unsecured Notes Due October 2026 and the BNP Facility, as well as an increase in uninvested cash, which reduced net interest margin by $0.10 per share." 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20 at page 56 (emphasis added)
Note the Y-O-Y plunge in net investment income per share:
 |
| SEC Filed Press Release |
 |
| Page 64 10-Q |
One of new sour loans is a large one to 3rd Rock Gaming, as noted above. This is a private company whose business involves gaming software, which involves, at least in part, electronic bingo. In the conference call, management discussed this loan at page 3: OFS Capital (OFS) CEO Bilal Rashid on Q2 2020 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha OFS "rescheduled 3rd Rock Gaming's June 30th principal on interest payment." This loan is first lien. OFS notes that the impact of the pandemic "on its customers which include gaming venues has been substantial due to social distancing needs. The delays in reopening the venues and the timing associated with the return of significant customer traffic is unknown."
As of 6/30/20, the 3rd Rock loan was in the principal amount of $21.231M and had been written down to $12.916M, a big hit for this mini cap BDC..
Another big hit is the subordinated loan made to Online Tech Stores L.L.C. in the original principal amount of $16.129M that had been written down to $7.124M and is on nonaccrual.
 |
| Q/E 6/30/20 |
It is difficult to comprehend why anyone would loan this company $16+M on a subordinated basis.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.B. Sold 10 OFS at $12.04(11/30/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Sold 60 shares at $12 (11/13/19 Post)
Trading Profits to Date: $137.02
Goal: Total Return in excess of the dividend payments. I am barely motivated to make any effort to dig myself out of the hole. Management is extremely over-compensated for the results. The best solution now is to sell all of the holdings and distribute the proceeds to shareholders.
2. Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Bought 5 TANNI at $24.03; 5 at $24.53 (2 different accounts):
Closing Price 8/7/2020: TANNI $24.88 -$0.37 -1.47%
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Issuer: TravelCenters of America Inc. (TA)
TravelCenters of America - Investors
TA Analyst Estimates
TA SEC Filings
I discussed in a recent post buying 5 shares of another exchange-traded bond, issued by TravelCenters, that matures in 2029. Item # 4.A. Bought 5 TANNL at $23.5 (7/18/20 Post); TravelCenters of America Inc. 8% Senior Notes due 12/15/29
I view TA's senior unsecured debt to be high risk.
Security: Senior Unsecured Baby Bond
Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Trades Flat:
Last Ex Interest Date:
Maturity Date: 1/15/28
Issuer Redemption Option: At par value whenever it chooses
This exchange trade baby bond used to trade under the TANN symbol. This is my first purchase. I have a number of round trips on the other two SU exchange-traded bonds TANNL and TANNZ.
Snapshots of Baby Bond round-trips can be found at Baby Bonds - South Gent | Seeking Alpha and Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds for sells starting in 2017.
B. Eliminated LMHA-Sold 15 at $25.22:
I discussed the reason for selling this junior baby bond in an 8/3/2020 comment.
Profit Snapshot: $103.69
Item # 4.C. Bought 10 LMHA at $18; 5 at $18.92 (4/18/20 Post)
3. Bought 100 XRE:CA at C$15.12 (C$1 commission):
Quote: XRE | iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index ETF Overview
Sponsor's Website: iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index ETF | XRE
Expense Ratio: .61%
Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend: 6/27/20
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.A. Eliminated XRE:CA Sold 150 at C$16.61 (11/17/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$47)
Total Holdings: 21 as of 8/3/20
Top 10 as of 8/3/2020:
My largest Canadian REIT holding is 1000 units of Northwest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust which is not among the top 10. By buying the ETF, I gain exposure to Canadian REITs that are not owned. Among the top 10 holdings, I currently own only 10 shares of Riocan which was recently discussed here.
4. Fixed-Coupon Investments-Fidelity Taxable Account:
I am no longer buying $1K par value corporate bonds and treasuries, nor am I even looking at CD rates. All redemptions proceeds from those types of fixed coupon investments are not being reinvested into similar securities. All fixed coupon investments are consequently in a runoff mode.
I own Tennessee Municipal bonds in 3 taxable accounts. Most of my CDs are owned in my Schwab account.
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Issuer: TravelCenters of America Inc. (TA)
TravelCenters of America - Investors
TA Analyst Estimates
TA SEC Filings
I discussed in a recent post buying 5 shares of another exchange-traded bond, issued by TravelCenters, that matures in 2029. Item # 4.A. Bought 5 TANNL at $23.5 (7/18/20 Post); TravelCenters of America Inc. 8% Senior Notes due 12/15/29
I view TA's senior unsecured debt to be high risk.
Security: Senior Unsecured Baby Bond
Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Trades Flat:
Last Ex Interest Date:
Maturity Date: 1/15/28
Issuer Redemption Option: At par value whenever it chooses
This exchange trade baby bond used to trade under the TANN symbol. This is my first purchase. I have a number of round trips on the other two SU exchange-traded bonds TANNL and TANNZ.
Snapshots of Baby Bond round-trips can be found at Baby Bonds - South Gent | Seeking Alpha and Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds for sells starting in 2017.
B. Eliminated LMHA-Sold 15 at $25.22:
Profit Snapshot: $103.69
3. Bought 100 XRE:CA at C$15.12 (C$1 commission):
Quote: XRE | iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index ETF Overview
Sponsor's Website: iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index ETF | XRE
Expense Ratio: .61%
Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.A. Eliminated XRE:CA Sold 150 at C$16.61 (11/17/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$47)
Total Holdings: 21 as of 8/3/20
Top 10 as of 8/3/2020:
4. Fixed-Coupon Investments-Fidelity Taxable Account:
I am no longer buying $1K par value corporate bonds and treasuries, nor am I even looking at CD rates. All redemptions proceeds from those types of fixed coupon investments are not being reinvested into similar securities. All fixed coupon investments are consequently in a runoff mode.
I own Tennessee Municipal bonds in 3 taxable accounts. Most of my CDs are owned in my Schwab account.
The largest corporate bond positions are in the Schwab account. I own corporate bonds in 5 accounts (4 taxable and 1 Roth IRA) The other Roth IRA has had all of the bonds mature.
I can probably replace the income lost with redemptions with common stock purchases, but only a fraction of those proceeds is being directed now into dividend paying common stocks.
I can probably replace the income lost with redemptions with common stock purchases, but only a fraction of those proceeds is being directed now into dividend paying common stocks.
To have a full replacement, I would not have to redirect 100% of the proceeds but could achieve parity with about 60% based on what I have been buying. The yields on maturing corporate bonds and treasuries were not that great before plummeting this year. The yields on older securities only look better compared to what is available now.
Some of the lost interest income resulting from redemptions is being recouped through gains realized from trading which is a less reliable form of income generation compared to interest received from high quality corporate bonds, treasuries and FDIC insured CDs.
Fidelity Taxable-Fixed Coupon-As of 7/31/20 (snapshot from my July statement):
And, I have lost a lot of bonds, CDs and treasury bills to redemptions YTD in this account and others. Some of the pages reproduced above included 15 REIT common stocks that I own in this account, which I excised from the preceding snapshots. They were mixed up by Fidelity in a fixed coupon section of my July statement.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
And, I have lost a lot of bonds, CDs and treasury bills to redemptions YTD in this account and others. Some of the pages reproduced above included 15 REIT common stocks that I own in this account, which I excised from the preceding snapshots. They were mixed up by Fidelity in a fixed coupon section of my July statement.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
I have had a lot of trouble with Blogger this morning. The site has been unavailable at times since I had to correct problems relating to Google's new interface. The blog is now available and no further revisions are necessary.
ReplyDelete++
Berkshire Hathaway reported earnings today. I own shares.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/08/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-q2-2020.html
Earnings Report:
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/aug0820.pdf
Donald seems intent on passing his own stimulus legislation via executive order.
ReplyDeleteThis article contains a good discussion of the mess he will create by attempting to suspend payroll taxes.
https://www.ntu.org/foundation/detail/suspending-the-payroll-tax-by-executive-order-raises-as-many-questions-as-it-answers
Trump has repeatedly claimed that children are almost immune from contracting Covid-19. He made those assertions after 330,000 children had received positive test results.
ReplyDeleteA CBS news story today, referencing data from the American Academy of Pediatrics, noted that 97,000 children tested positive from July 16 to July 30.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-kids-schools-in-person-instruction/
Both twitter and FB removed or added flags on his false comments about this. It's not much but it is striking to have a president that social media is reprimanding.
DeleteSouth Gent,
ReplyDeleteI feel your agony over your lost post. I have been skeptical about the safety of cloud data warehousing. Earlier this year I had to buy a new iPhone and I lost thousands of photos during the transition. There are so many steps involved in safe keeping your data. Sometimes all it takes is one small mistake and your data is gone.
Re. Berkshire Hathaway I took a position in April, believing in their long-term prospect. I had followed the mile long inch deep investment approach for some time until I found out I didn't even recognize some of my own holdings. I no longer have the time and energy to keep up with the portfolio. A while ago you had discussed a Lazy Man's portfolio in your post. What's your current thinking of it in this ZIRP environment and after what the Covid-19 did to the economy/market?
Y: You would beat most investors by focusing on low cost index ETFs, possibly keeping up to 10 individual stock selections. Berkshire could be one of those stocks.
DeleteVTI could be one of the ETFs with its .03% expense ratio.
https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VTI
The problem is that bond ETFs are not attractive giving the run up in prices, and stocks are not appealing either, at least to me.
I am buying more stock ETFs either as short term trades or placeholders, where the intention is to buy more when the price slides.
Investors are pretending that Covid-19 never happened and will have no long term consequences.
The recent favorable economic data was inflated and caused substantially by huge federal stimulus that no longer exists. The U.S. has failed miserably in containing the virus and the flu season is about to arrive with Covid-19 out of control.
I will be waiting for better opportunities than now to invest most of the proceeds being received constantly from maturing fixed coupon securities.
As you know, my approach is to preserve capital while taking measured risks to generate income. Part of that approach is diversification across asset classes and spreading the money around into literally hundreds of securities (the mile wide/inch deep)so that I will not even be nicked by several less than optimal selections.
The google data lost sounds frustrating. Maybe it will magically appear. Google doesn't usually mess up that badly, but disappearing blog entries is a big mess up.
ReplyDeleteIf there is any searching or testing I can do, let me know. Maybe when it comes up for someone else, it will have the missing pieces?
It looks like the big worry that the economy would go into a longer recession is not a worry any more. So that's why the market stopped tanking.
ReplyDeleteMasks are shown the make a big difference. Apparently even if bad areas, the curves are coming down.
International still may do better. Depends on how the election is perceived. I can't guess on that.
On bubbles and valuable products, I came across this about pineapples.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-53432877?utm_source=pocket-newtab
Land: I believe the Stock Jocks are too sanguine about V shape recovery and the long term impact of Covid-19.
DeleteIt will be interesting to see how they react next week to the stimulus package impasse and Trump's executive orders doing little even if they survive challenge which is doubtful.
The pandemic is spreading IMO and is not under control except in limited geographic areas. New York is doing well now, but for how long.
Even in those areas that have flattened the curve, infected people will travel into them and spread the infection. South Dakota for example had the infection rate relatively subdued but what will happen when 250K bikers hang around for several days, most of whom will not practice social distancing or wear a mask.
I read an article recently that people who received the pneumonia vaccine are less likely to become infected. There is some theories being floated that the T Cells in some people recognize Covid-19 as an invader and attack it, which may explain the large number of asymptomatic infections.
"People who got a pneumonia vaccine in the recent past appeared to have a 28 percent reduction in coronavirus risk. Those who got polio vaccines had a 43 percent reduction in risk."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-covid/
I came over to reply to your last comment. It's not showing up either. But was emailed to me. I'm sure it will show up, but google's having a bad hair day.
ReplyDeleteApplebaum's comment is an excellent summary. Also Trump's moves to consolidate an imperial presidency (a dictatorship) are many and terrifying. It's why canvassing via phone/text/postcard and funding and telling people to vote early, are so important. We simply will not survive another Trump term as a democracy.
Much of this much be a Putin strategy.
"Masks are shown TO make a big difference. Apparently even IN bad areas, the curves are coming down."
ReplyDeleteLand: Based on what I am seeing in the data, new infections are either increasing or about the same in most states measured on a per capita basis.
DeletePer capita deaths are increasing in 20 states over the past 14 days.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
I am expecting cases to rise in the coming months due to mass spreader events like the motorcycle rally in Texas, widespread ignoring of mask wearing and social distancing rules, and the start of in person instruction in schools.
Facebook and Twitter removed Trump's claim that children were "virtually immune" from infection. Lying about such an issue would normally disqualify a person from high office.
The studies available so far indicate that children over 10 spread the virus as easily as adults:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-children-schools.html
Schools are factories for spreading viruses. Many school districts in republican controlled states do not require students to wear masks. They will end up infecting staff, teachers, their parents or others.
New infections per day have come down to around 55K per day from over 60K. Test results take so long that most of them are useless since a carrier will spread the virus for days before being notified that they tested positive.
The U.S. has failed miserably.
I saw charts on MSNBC (Maddow or Joy or someone subbing in for a regular) that showed a slight downturn happening.
DeleteSo, interesting that that isn't the data coming other in other sources.
That's separate from the mess that's coming from how schools are opening.
My comment on social media reprimanding a president is intended tongue in cheek. SM that's so ridiculously bad at truth monitoring and a place for conspiracy theories to spread... it's a really low place to stoop when our president can't even meeting their meager standards.
Can the US get it's grip back and stop the failure. Step one, get rid of this gov't.
Your post with Applebaum is still not showing up. Maybe repost it as a new post and see if that shows up?
ReplyDelete"People who got a pneumonia vaccine in the recent past appeared to have a 28 percent reduction in coronavirus risk. Those who got polio vaccines had a 43 percent reduction in risk."
Wow. I've had the polio shot. I will now regret that I had only one pneumonia shot. I've been waiting to get the Prevnar 13 until my immune system bounces back so it can take root.
The plasma with antibioties seems to be a realistic ideas too. (If there are only a few cases around. Can't collect it fast enough if there are a lot of active cases.)
If market is too sanguine, but still doesn't look like a long term recession will set in for the USA?
Land: I have to approve comments before they show up. I just got back from Krogers which accounts for the delay.
DeleteThe polio vaccine data is derived from those who received the shot within the past few years.
I remember getting mine back in the 1950s. I received the Prevnar vaccine recently as well as the one for shingles. I am not clear why a Prevnar vaccine, which targets bacteria, would have any effect on combating a virus, so I am not buying that one. The memory T cells that have had exposure to viruses similar to Covid-19 may explain why some appear to have immunity against serious illnesses. But, I think also that everybody is guessing still. The asymptomatic may have symptoms that would show up on tests, which has been the case, or simply do not recognize mild symptoms, possibly due to receiving a small viral lode rather than T cell activity.
As to how long the recession lasts, the U.S. needs to buy time through fiscal stimulus until a vaccine can be developed.
I am not optimistic at the moment that the fiscal stimulus will be sufficient going forward unless Donald quits listening to Mark Meadows, who John Boehner called an idiot. That may be too generous.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/10/john-boehner-on-republican-party
Meadows is now Chief of Staff and has been making policy on the federal government's Covid-19 response even though he does not believe in the science. A WP story recently cited several sources that Meadows did not believe in face masks providing protection.
You can go to the Applebaum article by highlighting the cite above and then moving into the search box at google. Or, just google "The Facts Just Aren’t Getting Through"
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/how-beat-populists-when-facts-dont-matter/615082/
I was referring to something different from my posts not showing right away. (I know they don't show till you are on and approving.)
DeleteYOUR post with the original comment on Applebaum isn't showing up. It did arrive into my email. So google got it. But doesn't show on this page when I refresh.
Your post that starts "Land: It remains to be seen whether the House Democrats"
That's a first for google not to post YOUR posts, but email them!
The assessment of whether other vaccines help must be hard. How do you rule out that people who get their vaccines are also more likely to be responsible... and wash their hands?
DeleteWhat can I say. I agree. Those running things, are lacking even basic capabilities to the point of "anti-capabilities" when they can't believe obvious science that masks help etc..
DeleteIt's why I now take my walks by going into the woods.
Land: The Applebaum article reference is in a comment to the prior post where I responded to a comment that you left there:
Deletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/08/bdge-botz-cxp-dcomp-jri-jtd-komp-pfxf.html?showComment=1596998576441#c21143761589242991
There is regrettably a strong anti-science bias among republicans. That is not going to change. Some may even accept climate science a few seconds before being burned to a crisp or as it is happening, heard to say "maybe there was something to that after all".
I was referring earlier to this article in the Washington Post:
"Meadows no longer holds a daily 8 a.m. meeting that includes health professionals to discuss the raging pandemic. Instead, aides said, he huddles in the mornings with a half-dozen politically oriented aides — and when the virus comes up, their focus is more on how to convince the public that President Trump has the crisis under control, rather than on methodically planning ways to contain it. During coronavirus meetings, Meadows has repeatedly questioned the scientific consensus that wearing masks helps contain the spread of the novel coronavirus, officials said"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-struggled-summer-coronavirus/2020/08/08/e12ceace-d80a-11ea-aff6-220dd3a14741_story.html
I watched video on NBC News tonight about the Mass Infection Event now occurring in South Dakota. Almost no one was wearing a mask. Bars were filled with people, none of whom were shown wearing masks or social distancing. Those people will return to their homes, newly infected, while others were spreaders during the event.
As to infection rates, they have come down some on a national level, but deaths are still running around a thousand per day and confirmed infections have doubled within the past 30 days or so, now near 5.1M.
Bill Gates said that testing is worthless in the U.S. given the delays in producing results. That is the only conclusion to reach, notwithstanding Donald's assertions that testing is the best here.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/08/09/bill-gates-testing-coronavirus-gps-vpx.cnn
6-7 months into the pandemic and the U.S. is still failing in spectacular fashion.
"""The Applebaum article reference is in a comment to the prior post """
DeleteTHAT prior post BY YOU doesn't show up on the blog.
It was emailed to me. So I know it's contents. However, when I search this page for "Applebaum", that post by you isn't displayed.
It's peculiar. I've never seen that happen before on the blog.
Every news story about how this WH is operating is more depressing and corrupt and mentally incapacitated than the last.
DeleteMy response for myself to all of this, is to figure out when I can phonebank, and text and write letters. And what else might be needed. My area doesn't need election volunteers.
The real key is that the checks and balances are failing. Somehow an entire branch of Congress is going along with it all and actively supporting it. There are some small breaks happening now. But this needs to be studied, and laws put in place to stop it from happening again.
It's unpopular to say, but I think Obama should have told the voters about the Russian interference and investigation.
We need to win so big that it can not be questioned. The damage won't be repaired in my lifetime.
Never mind. I get it. It was on the prior blog page. I had moved to the new blog and not noticed that it was a notice that went with the older page.
ReplyDeletePower Corp. of Canada (PWCDF)
ReplyDelete$19.56 +$0.5574 +2.93%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pwcdf
PWCDF is the USD priced shares traded on the U.S. pink sheet exchange. I own 100 of those shares and 100 of the CAD priced shares traded in Toronto:
Power Corp. of Canada (CA:POW)
CAD$26.12 +C$0.68 +2.67%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pow?countrycode=ca
Today's rise is in response to the second quarter earnings report released after Friday's close.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/power-corporation-reports-second-quarter-2020-financial-results-864403963.html
The Corporation's net asset value per share was C$32.96 at June 30, 2020, up 7.0% from 3/31/20.
E.P.S. C$.99, adjusted to C$.79
The adjustment removes exclude a positive impact to earnings of C$133 million or C$0.20 per share "mainly related to the Corporation's share of Lifeco's adjustments, which consist of market-related recoveries, actuarial assumption changes and management actions, and a recovery on the deconsolidation of IntegraMed America, Inc."
The reference to Lifeco is to the publicly traded Great-West Lifeco that is 66.9% owned by Power Financial which in turn is now 100% owned by Power Corporation.
I have traded both the CAD and USD priced shares several times.
The 100 shares of PWCDF have an average cost per share of $15.12 after selling 30 shares as discussed in this post:
Item # 1.D. https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/07/des-exg-fgdfx-fsphx-gbdc-intf-jqc-mgc.html
The other 100 share position was bought at CAD$21.37:
Item # 1
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/05/angl-bab-brg-ebiz-fax-fbiox-good-hban.html
The current quarterly dividend is C$.4475 per share (C$1.79 annually), last raised from $.405 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.
https://www.powercorporation.com/en/investors/dividends/#subordinate-voting-shares
At C$21.37 the yield is about 8.38%.
Do the market investors think that Trump's EO's amount to no way out for DNC and GOP except to make a deal? Futures are up again. (Though today was more rotation out of Nasdaq.)
ReplyDeleteLand: I view that as a reasonable interpretation for yesterday's action
DeleteStock futures are up today in pre-market trading, possibly for that reason and another:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
I am not sure why anyone is excited about Russia's claim that it has developed an effective vaccine. Skepticism about that claim is warranted and developed countries are not going to permit their citizens to take it until studies are done on efficacy and safety. The vaccine has not been tested and this appears more likely to be a propaganda stunt. Russians will be coerced into taking "an unproven and potentially dangerous vaccine to keep their jobs."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-unveils-coronavirus-vaccine-claiming-victory-in-global-race-before-final-testing-is-complete/2020/08/11/792f8a54-d813-11ea-a788-2ce86ce81129_story.html
From a purely Machiavellian view, however, the Democrats may be better off sticking to their $2T demand and watch Trump's EO's backfire on him which they probably will.
Trump's EO on evictions is illusory. Renters will ask why am I being evicted when Donald proclaimed that this would not happen.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/trumps-order-to-stop-evictions-is-toothless-at-best-expert-says.html
Trump's $400 a week supplemental unemployment benefit is only $300 with the states having to kick in the other $100. The states are already strapped for cash.
Even if recipients receive $300, they will ask why am I am receiving $300 when Donald promised $400.
There will be delays in receiving the $300 per week and individuals will ask where is my money when Donald promised relief that has not arrived.
There will be delays in receiving those benefits. People will start asking where is my money.
So far, Donald has identified on unspent disaster relief funds to pay the $300. Those funds will dry up in 4 to 5 weeks.
Then where will Donald find the money, assuming he is allowed to spend money appropriated for disaster relief to increase unemployment benefits.
What happens when those funds are needed and are gone?
The payroll tax holiday will end up burning him and other republicans since Democrats will pounce with 3 months of campaign ads claiming that the GOP has targeted funding for Social Security and Medicare.
Most employers will probably continue to withhold anyway, probably placing the funds in escrow until they can pay the government or return to their employees when and if Congress forgives the overdue amounts that were in deferral.
So, if that happens, employees will ask why Donald promised no payroll tax withholding when those amounts are still being withheld by their employers.
So far this week, the Stock Jocks are pushing my "contrarian value" stocks up in price. The QQQ type names are moving down.
ReplyDeleteProxies:
UP:
Vanguard Value ETF (VTV)
$108.10 +0.985 +0.92%
Last Updated: Aug 11, 2020 at 10:15 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vtv
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
$41.80 +1.41 +3.49%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
Down:
Invesco QQQ Trust Series I
$267.68 -$2.63
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/qqq
Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
$112.53 -$0.89 -0.78%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/xlk
The growth stocks are a crowded trade and have substantially outperformed value this year.
The rotation may just be temporary profit taking or optimism that the headwinds to the value names, including energy stocks and regional banks, will soon dissipate.
With today ending in a little down... after so much of the day being up... I wonder how much rally that will trigger to get the "lower bargain prices?"
DeleteFutures are up and werent at first. Is it over Kamala Harris as VP pick? I guess that's a rally point over some far left choice.
The down today was at 2pm. From the news blurbs, I assume it was the continued breakdown of talks getting announced around then that did it.
So market has assumed there will be a deal, and Trump's isn't good enough but will force the hands of the rest.
Harris is okay by me. I still think she's too inexperienced. Booker or Klobachar were moderates with more experience. She's not ready to be president, and she got pushed around and made errors because of inexperience when campaigning. HOWEVER, she's a decent person, thoughtful, good ideas, able to work with others, and able to step into whatever is needed. She's also moderate which I am glad to see as a pick.
The rotation is continuing... doesn't seem to be a negative behind it. Profit taking isn't negative but realistic. And optimism on the future of the rest of the market is very positive. I'll need to put on CNBC one of these days to hear the assumed reasonings. Just out of curiosity.
I am having considerable difficulty understanding how the pandemic is a positive for the U.S. economy. Maybe I am just a stick-in-the-mud.
ReplyDeleteMajor stock indexes currently reflect that difficult to understand appraisal.
I consequently have shifted into net dollar selling, starting late last week.
The decline in QQQ may be signalling that a reversal has started, but it is still to early form an opinion. It will be difficult for the Stock Jocks to throw in the towel on names like Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Nvidia and Microsoft however.
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
$265.19 -$5.12 (-1.89%)
If those stocks spiral down, they will take the rest of the market with them, though there may be some rotation into beaten up sectors and "value" stocks will go down in such a scenario but not as much as the high flyers.
Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares (VTV)
$107.03 -0.08 (-0.07%)
I doubt the rally in regional bank stocks has much juice left. The headwinds are still there and optimism about the economy near term is not IMO realistic.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
$41.18+0.79 (+1.96%)
I am working on a new regional bank basket post containing snapshots of my trades. I was a net seller of those stocks today.
I also eliminated GBDC, recently discussed, since I did not like the earnings report. I do not need much of an excuse to dump a position for a profit now.
+++
It did not take Donald long to call Senator Harris a "nasty woman".
That did not take long!
DeleteHis creativity is so boring.
Lincoln project was ready,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUwxqxlUXXY
It's unusual for the market to bifurcate this much. It often happens for a while during a downturn, then eventually catches up. (That I've noticed.) So this reversal 'could' be interesting that way.
The only emotional logic I can come up with is that people want to feel happy, so those with money for the market, get to feel good putting into a bet - something that gives a giddy feeling of having bought something.
That seems like a weak explanation. I still don't get it. And there's tons of money on the sidelines still & sentiment surveys are not brimming with bullishness.
Heather Cox Richardson from Letters from an American
DeleteFrom her daily news blog:
"Senior administration officials say there is little chance of talks about a new coronavirus relief bill any time soon. White House chief of staff Mark Meadows is away for the week. More than that, though, the White House thinks it has Democrats in a “real pickle” because if they try to stop the Trump’s executive actions of last Friday, they will look like they are refusing to help ordinary Americans. While this was clearly the plan for those three memorandums and one executive order, it doesn’t look to me like it has worked. Democrats are not pushing back on legal grounds, but on the grounds that the measures don’t actually do anything, and that seems to be the story that is dominating the media. "
Land: Even though Trump's EO's are challengeable as exceeding his authority, the Democrats need to forego filing legal challenges.
DeleteThe sides are too far apart to reach an agreement, with the GOP at $1T and the Democrats at $2T. The Democrats view that number as meeting republicans half way. Pelosi has claimed that her caucus will not support a lower number while Mnuchin has stated that the Democrats are being unreasonable at $2T.
As I mentioned earlier, a deal could be struck if both sides are willing to accept something in the $1.5 to $1.7T range. I do not see any movement into that range.
Politically, the Democrats may be better off just watching Trump's EO's flounder and/or fail to deliver as promised by him while the Dems emphasize that they want to shower a lot more on everybody.
Futures are moving up with the Nasdaq 100 clawing back almost 1/2 of its losses from yesterday.
E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index Continuous
Contract
10,962.50 +84.00 +0.77%
Last Updated: Aug 12, 2020 at 7:40 a.m.
CDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/nasdaq%20100%20futures?mod=home-page
I am becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the current ebullience.
Listening to the lunch roundtable. I still have no idea what anyone's thinking. Maybe if I catch it tomorrow
Delete(...today they wandered off to talk about Apple's stock split and Crammer's idea that splitting will bring new highs.
Josh's view is that's where tops are. But he's basing that on 1999 when there weren't any fundamentals to go with the splits.)
There are two views. 1) Complacency is happening. Assumptions that a deal is coming. Assumptions of no 2nd wave. 2) Valuations are based on how expected bad stuff isn't coming to life. The economy isn't shut down for the long term and isn't going to shut down again. Jobless claims are happening but at a slower rate.
That's as much as I gathered. I wonder if someone else listening would have picked up an actual viewpoint happening.
If what I got is true, then we're in never never land. Not going down or up, because the boat isn't full on any side.
One guest said they expect a slow down from the rapid recovery mode that we've been in. But trading range (Degas Wright I think). I can buy that.
It's important to assess from what's DIFFERENT from expectations. Not from what ARE expectations. Market moves on the delta, not the absolutes. Though everyone expects it to move on the absolutions and valuations.
New highs often get newer highs. But valuations are high for historical values.
There's rotation happening. That can be great. Room for a new move up. Or it can be start of a collapse. (Unless it's more likely one or the other and I'm not aware - which is very possible.)
So I feel like what view I can have here, is just plain mush mash.
Forgot this part that started it off. The put calls spread has collapsed. Protection isn't being bought.
DeleteThat lends weight to the complacency view. And the boat being full on that side, even though the verbiage from guests and articles are on both sides of the boat.
Land: I am in a risk off stage now which means that I lowering my already low stock allocation.
DeleteMy buying generally involves placeholders, just a reminder in my accounts that I may want to buy more when the market tanks again.
Why are the Stock Jocks pretending that the pandemic is a positive for the economy or unlikely to have any negative and major lingering effects, That is in effect what they are saying in current market index levels.
I suspect that the main reason for the parabolic rise in indexes is that there is nowhere else to go.
U.S. interest rates started to move up this week in response to the federal government issuing boatloads of new paper. While the ten year moved from around .55% to .73% today, that is a significant percentage move that would have resulted in meaningful, percentage unrealized loss for the buyer at .55%.
The "real yield" on a 10 year TIP is fluctuating lately at a NEGATIVE 1% yield.
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldYear&year=2020
Other reasons for the stock market's more recent upswing include earnings reports being better than expected overall, as have several of the economic numbers.
For whatever reason, investors are not concerned by the withdrawal of economic stimulus. They believe either that the reopening push will negate that withdrawal (and then some) or that the two political tribes will come to terms soon. I am not sure that either belief, taken at a near 100% certainty as reflected in current prices, makes any sense, at least to me.
Value stocks can not mount much of a rally before falling or running in place. The heavy lifting is still being done by a few stocks that are in the top 10 market capitalizations.
""Value stocks can not mount much of a rally before falling or running in place. The heavy lifting is still being done by a few stocks that are in the top 10 market capitalizations. ""
DeleteSo that's been your observation of the moves this week.
I hadn't come to that conclusion. But if I think about it, for right now, rise in value is followed by a reversal back to the usual since spring with the top 10.
That can break in any direction.
Even with no where else to go, there's been a run in municipal bonds.
Land: I do not own any municipal bond funds. The main ETF for those securities is probably the iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB)which has a .07% expense ratio:
DeleteiShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB)
$116.90 -$0.12 (-0.10%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MUB?p=MUB&.tsrc=fin-srch
Sponsor's website:
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239766/ishares-national-amtfree-muni-bond-etf
MUB has a similar duration to the treasury ETF IEF, which has outperformed MUB so far this year on a tax equivalent basis.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239456/
I have a decent allocation to individual Tennessee municipal bonds. Some of those are reflected in the snapshots in this post, near the end. I will include snapshots of my fixed income securities held in my Schwab account in my next post.
The big mo in stocks is still to the upside until the thundering herd gets so spooked that a stampede in the opposite direction unfolds.
All that I can say is that I am not comfortable buying stocks or bonds. It is a struggle for me just to keep from slashing my stock allocation.
Schedule for Congress. House is off till Sept 14, Senate until at least early Sept.
ReplyDeletehttps://thehill.com/homenews/senate/511896-senate-leaves-until-september-without-coronavirus-relief-deal?amp
I'm sure they could come back for a deal. But they aren't even trying.
Can the $300 (out of the $400) that Trump signed an EO for, go out for unemployed? It sounded like there's funding through illegal use of the at war emergency measure, but DNC won't sue against it for good reason.
Saw twits about a 2nd $1200 won't be going out, from people were waiting for it because they need it.
If $300 is going out, it's something and would explain why the market isn't completely panicked over the lack of deal. ??
But other than that, this market isn't comfortable to add to (unless there are specific buys). I am holding for the divs. After a couple years, this will all be moot for what I bought at more reasonable prices.
Land: The prospects for a new stimulus package passed by Congress look dim now. Congress is in recess. There was a call earlier this week involving Pelosi and Mnuchin that went nowhere according to reports.
DeleteBased on what I have read, the states will not be ponying up the $100 per week, though a few exceptions are possible, and it may take up to 4 weeks for the first $300 check to arrive.
Nothing material was done by Trump on evictions so the ball will be rolling on those.
To give myself the illusion of doing something now, I am initiating new positions in 1 share lots as placeholders.
I am giving serious consideration, for example, of buying 1 CSCO. Maybe I will flip a coin. Cisco's guidance sent the shares down over 10% earlier this week, making it slightly more appealing to me.
I have already thrown caution to the win buying 1 ED and 1 PEG today, so I don't want to appear too ebullient.
Consolidated Edison (ED) was the victim of some demagoguery by Governor Cuomo who was dissatisfied by that utility's response to the Isaias tropical storm.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/cuomo-threatens-pseg-con-edison-operating-licsense-power-outage-storm-response
The general idea will be to build the PEG and ED positions up in 1 share lot buys, with each purchase being at the lowest price in the chain, until I reach what I had invested in Dominion (D) which was eliminated.
Consolidated Edison Inc.
$73.65 -$0.12 -0.16%
YIELD 4.16%
EX-DIVIDEND Aug 18, 2020
at 1:42 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ed
Wow, I thought it was down and after 4pm. But there's so much FOMO, that there's huge buying before the close. Must be by algos. I must have misread and it was only minutes to the close not after.
ReplyDeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/08/bbca-cna-enb-fivg-flgb-iqlt-lgi-orkly.html