AGROPRA, AIQ, AMCX, BAC, CXP, CZNC, FBNC, FCPVX, FNLC,MGC, PPT, PNNT, THGA, UBSI, VFH, VONV,

Economy: 

There were 870,000 new claims for unemployment for the week ending 9/19/20: News Release That number does not include the 630,000 who filed new claims under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program. 

Economy doesn't need more stimulus for V-shaped recovery, Trump advisor Kudlow says The media personality Larry Kudlow is Donald's chief economic advisor. Kudlow graduated from the University of Rochester with a B.A. and majored in history. He recovered from a cocaine and alcohol addictions back in the mid-1990s. A Wall St. Star's Agonizing Confession - The New York Times

6 of Larry Kudlow’s Not-So-on-the-Money Predictions-The New York Times; Maybe it’s time for Larry Kudlow to stop making predictions - The Washington Post; Trump Favorite Larry Kudlow, Makes Bad Economic Forecasts | Money

Retailers resume rent payments but are still fighting with landlords

Calculated Risk: September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 5% Year-over-year Decline

Calculated Risk: Q3 GDP Forecasts

+++++++

Markets and Market Commentary: 

China economy recovering from Covid-19, says ex-Goldman economist Jim O'Neill

Biden's capital gains tax hike may big sell-off in stocks The proposal, applicable to high income taxpayers, is to increase the rate to 39.6% from the current 20%. There is also currently a separate net investment income levy of 3.8% for high income taxpayers. 2020 Long-Term Capital Gains Tax Rates-Bankrate If Biden wins and the Democrats keep control over the House and gain a majority in the Senate, this raise will be a done deal IMO. It is will not impact most taxpayers who are capped at 15%. 

FinCEN Files Explainer: How BuzzFeed News And ICIJ Did It (This is the article that set off a bank stock rout last Monday)

Why soybeans may be headed for their highest price in 6 years - MarketWatch

The COVID-19 lockdown is squeezing real estate from all sides and threatens to burst the housing and mortgage bubble - MarketWatch

+++++

Trump: 

What GOP senators said about replacing a justice in 2016 - YouTube Hypocrisy knows no boundaries among republican senators. They will always trade principles (assuming they have any to sacrifice) for power without a moment's hesitation. 

The republican senators are simply engaged in a Machiavellian power play. 

When Justice Scalia died about nine months prior to the 2016 election, McConnell had the votes to prevent President Obama from selecting any replacement. 

He now has the votes with less than 2 months before the 2020 election to push through a reactionary to replace Justice Ginsberg.  

Donald has expressly stated that he wants another republican justice ready to vote for him in an election dispute: 

Dictator Don's Comments Last Week (note: When Donald refers to ballots, he is lying. Some states are sending out applications for a mail-in ballot to the address of registered voters)  

"Well, we’re going to have to see what happens. You know that I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots and the ballots are a disaster. We’ll want to have — get rid of the ballots and you’ll have a very — we’ll have a very peaceful — there won’t be a transfer frankly, there’ll be a continuation." (emphasis added) 

"We need nine justices. You need that. With the unsolicited millions of ballots that they’re sending, it’s a scam, it’s a hoax, everybody knows that. And the Democrats know it better than anybody else. So you’re going to need nine justices up there, I think it’s going to be very important. Because what they’re doing is a hoax, with the ballots." 

"I think this will end up in the Supreme Court. And I think it’s very important that we have nine justices. It’s better if you go before the election, because I think this, this scam that the Democrats are pulling, it’s a scam, the scam will be before the United States Supreme Court. And I think having a 4/4 situation is not a good situation." Trump predicts Supreme Court needs a ninth justice to decide November election - CBS News; Trump won't commit to peaceful transfer of power if he loses the election

Trump's comments send a signal to his supporters about how to react if Biden prevails 

Eric Trump: President would concede election 'if he got blown out of the water' by Biden

Trump’s plan is clearly for the Supreme Court to throw him the election.  

What is Donald saying?  

Donald believes the 6 republican Justices will invalidate the election results, based on what Trump is already calling a "scam" and "hoax" relating to mail-in ballots, in the event he loses to Biden. 

Donald has  repeatedly made it crystal clear that he will claim fraud when and if he loses and will attempt to invalidate the results by appealing to republican judges.  

I would again emphasize that it is imperative that Biden voters in swing states vote in person. There are more swing states this election. I would say Biden is competitive and may win the following states carried by Trump in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  

Lindsey Graham says Republicans "got the votes to confirm" SCOTUS nominee before election - CBS News I do not see how that would energize republican voters since they would have already achieved their objective, a rock solid reactionary majority on the Supreme Court that could last for 2 decades or more. Graham is a political whore and the most prominent slithering hypocrite among republican senators. 

Lindsey Graham's Flip-Flops Before and After Donald Trump | NowThis-YouTube; 

Graham: Trump is a 'race-baiting, xenophobic religious bigot ...- YouTube; 

[Evaluations] 21 Grahams | Harper's Magazine

I have to hand it to the republicans though. 

Unlike the voters who opposed Trump in 2016 and refused to vote or threw their vote away by voting for Jill Stein, the Trumpsters recognized that elections do matter, particularly when it comes to the Supreme Court. 

Many commentators have argued that the fight over the next Supreme Court nominee may negatively impact the markets. 

A reactionary court, which is a done deal now and is the traditional leaning of the Supreme Court through most of U.S. history, is a positive for businesses in a variety of ways; and that has always been the case. 

{e.g. Corporate speech and the First Amendment: History, data and implications - Journalist's Resource; The Corporate “Free Speech” Racket | Washington Monthly, and see some historical examples Adkins v. Children's Hospital, 261 U.S. 525 (1923)(holding law granting minimum wages to women as an unconstitutional interference in the "liberty to contract"); Lochner v. New York, 198 U.S. 45 (SupCt 1905); Hammer v. Dagenhart, 247 U.S. 251 (1918)(Struck down child labor laws} 

It was for example the Supreme Court who took the 14th Amendment, intended to protect the civil rights of newly freed slaves and turned it into a  grant of rights to corporations while overturning congressional laws designed to implement and protect civil rights for the ex-slaves. The History of Corporate Personhood | Brennan Center for Justice; Review: How Corporate America Won Its Civil Rights - The New York Times 

Links to some of those cases: Santa Clara County v. Southern Pacific R. Co, 118 U.S. 394 (SupCt 1886); Plessy v. Ferguson, 163 U.S. 537 (SupCt 1896); Civil Rights Cases, 109 U.S. 3 (SupCt 1883)

Relevant Section from the 14th Amendment: 

‘Corporations Are People’ Is Built on a 19th-Century Lie - The Atlantic   

I would add that the so called "conservative" Justices, who claim that they are interpreting the Constitution as written, using the plain meaning of the words contained therein, came to a conclusion that a "person", as used in the 14th Amendment, includes corporations. 

Turning back to what is happening now, it would not be accurate to call what is about to happen a "battle". One side has gone nuclear and the other is throwing spit balls. The republicans have the votes.  

++

 

Top Psychologists Compare Trump to Hitler and Mussolini in New Documentary ‘#Unfit’; Watch #Unfit: The Psychology of Donald Trump | Prime Video

Trump claims election results ‘may never be accurately determined’ due to mail-in voting - MarketWatch Donald is doing everything that he can to undermine the institutions that are fundamental to a properly functioning democracy. In so doing, he has the full support of the republican party.  

Trump Claims That Amazon Costs the USPS Billion; internal documents show otherwise Amazon generated $1.6B in profit for the USPS last year. Trump's rage is really directed against the Washington Post, owned by Jeff Bezos, that regularly pierces his false narratives and statements. Truth can not be allowed to exist in Trump's America.  

Last Monday, Don the Authoritarian designated NYC as an "anarchist jurisdiction." Donald and Barr believe that designation gives them the self-designated authority to withhold billions in federal funds. Andrew Cuomo Tells Trump to Piss All the Way Off With His “Anarchist Jurisdiction” Bullshit | Vanity Fair; We Live in a Potemkin Autocracy Now - The Atlantic  

++

The republicans are already openly discussing having republican state legislatures appoint an alternative slate of electors in the even Biden is certified the winner. What If Trump Refuses to Concede? - The Atlantic ("According to sources in the Republican Party at the state and national levels, the Trump campaign is discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battleground states where Republicans hold the legislative majority. With a justification based on claims of rampant fraud, Trump would ask state legislators to set aside the popular vote and exercise their power to choose a slate of electors directly.") 

{I have not looked into the mechanics of how the republicans would accomplish that objective in a particular state when there is a state law granting the voters the power to select the electors once the winner is declared by the state's election commission and certified by its Secretary of State. If the law has to be changed to accomplish that result, and requires the governor's signature who has veto power over that law change, republican control over the state legislature may be insufficient to take away the voter's power to select the electors when the governor is a Democrat. A reader, Land of Milk and Honey, referenced this article: If Trump lost the popular vote, it would be hard for him to 'rig' the Electoral College to stay in office. | USAPP; see also Red State Legislatures Cannot Cancel The Upcoming Presidential Election | Take Care;  Preparing for a Disputed Presidential Election: An Exercise in Election Risk Assessment and Management by Edward B. Foley :: SSRN} 

The  BUSH v. GORE 5 to 4 Supreme Court decision, where republican Justices awarded the Presidency to George Bush (and are consequently arguably responsible for the Iraq Invasion that Gore would not have initiated) held that the Constitution allows the states to take away from the voters "the power to appoint electors". 

This is the pertinent part of the republican Justices' decision: 

 

Justice Ginsberg wrote the main dissenting opinion. 

++

Trump Supporters Disrupt Early Voting in Virginia | NowThis - YouTube The republican voter intimidation was reportedly organized by the  Fairfax County Republican Committee Vice-Chair Sean Rastatter. 

With Bogus Claim Of ‘Millions’ Of Fraudulent Votes, Don Jr. Recruits ‘Army For Trump’ | Talking Points Memo

Eric Trump ordered to testify before election in probe of Trump Organization Eric may end up in free NY housing within 2 years. Maybe he will be sharing  a room with his dad.  

Eric Trump uses misleading clip to blast Biden for using teleprompter | TheHill; Telemundo Refutes Claim That Biden Used Teleprompter in Interview 

Trump Campaign Takes Biden's 'Pledge of Allegiance' Remarks Out of Context - FactCheck.org

Trump's Nobel Nonsense - FactCheck.org

Trump's False Statement About Counting Ballots in Pennsylvania - FactCheck.org

Trump Reprises Inaccurate COVID-19 Comparisons with Europe - FactCheck.org

Trump team essentially abused John Bolton’s rights, according to new document

Protesters hit by vehicles at Breonna Taylor demonstrations in Buffalo, Denver - ABC News

Federal judge rules against Trump admin, says 2020 census must continue for another month Trump wanted to rig the census to help republican states. 

Judge Removes Trump's Top Public Lands Chief William Perry Pendley : NPR At the "law and order" President, Pendley was serving illegally as the head of that federal agency without ever receiving the Senate's confirmation. 

++

 

Donald's Attorney General William Barr: 

Barr claimed that the coronavirus restrictions were the worst assault on civil liberties since slavery, greater than the denial of civil rights based on national origin, race and sex that last for a lifetime. In Barr's view, the nation is powerless to implement quarantines and other measures designed to protect the public's health during a pandemic capable of killing millions. 

Barr: “You know, putting a national lockdown, stay-at-home orders, is like house arrest. It’s — you know, other than slavery, which was a different kind of restraint, this is the greatest intrusion on civil liberties in American history.”  

In TrumpWorld, temporary restrictions and mask wearing requirements are a far greater infringement of liberties than what Black Americans endured for 100 years after slavery was abolished by the 13th Amendment to the Constitution.  

Barr creates firestorm with comments that appear to boost Trump's reelection campaign  

Barr demanded that U.S. attorneys consider criminal charges against  the Democrat Mayor of Seattle based on his displeasure with the manner in which that city handled the George Floyd protests. Barr Told the DOJ to Consider Criminal Charges Against the Democrat Mayor of Seattle Jenny Durkam -The New York Times Durkam is critical of Trump and Barr so the general idea among the Trumpsters is to "Lock Her Up.".   

Barr demanded that the U.S. attorneys consider charging anyone committing a violent act during the protests with an attempt to overthrow the U.S. government. William Barr suggests charging violent protesters with sedition  

Barr is best known for furthering Donald's belief that a U.S. President has more powers than a King during the middle ages. The Barr Memo and the Imperial Presidency-ACS; William Barr’s chilling defense of virtually unlimited presidential power-The Washington Post Barr rejects checks and balances on Presidential power. 

Barr is just another patently authoritarian leaning republican who represent a clear and present danger to fundamental constitutional principles including separation of powers and the checks and balances flowing therefrom. 

The reason for those checks and balances is to prevent one branch of government from usurping the freedoms guaranteed in the Bill of Rights. 

Most republicans are not conservatives but the polar opposite. True conservatives have already left Trump's party.  

++

Breonna Taylor: 

Since 2015: 48 Black Women Killed by the Police. And Only 1 Charge -The New York Times

Martin Luther King recognized that violent responses to an injustice will not solved anything and is only likely to produce more violence and deaths. 

Donald and his Trumpsters are never going to be a sympathetic audience for racial injustice and their positions will only harden when protests turn violent.  

Breonna Taylor, a innocent, was shot 6 times by two Louisville police officers, Jon Mattingly and Myles Cosgrove, executing a no knock warrant to search her apartment. Another officer, Brett Hankison, fired wildly into the apartment with the bullets entering a neighboring white families apartment. 

 

The multiple shots fired by the police were in response to a single shot by Breonna's boyfriend Kenneth Walker who feared an intruder in the late night raid. Walker obviously had no idea that several police officers had barged into Breonna's apartment shortly after midnight (12:43 A.M.). I read a report that the paramedics took 20 minutes to arrive. 

As it turns out, the bullet that struck officer Mattingly was fired by Brett Hankison, not by Mr. Walker.. Ballistics don't support AG claim that Kenneth Walker shot cop

The police officers claimed that they were not wearing body cameras. A photo showed one was wearing a camera, but no video footage is known to exist. New Photos Show at Least One Cop in Deadly Breonna Taylor Raid Was Wearing a Body Camera One of the officers involved in the killing was wearing a mount for a body camera.  

As I see it, the killing of Breonna Taylor would not have happened but two predicates that set everything in motion. 

The white police officer, Joshua Jaynes, who requested the no knock search warrant for Breonna's apartment did not have sufficient evidence for that request IMO and, more importantly, the white judge Mary M. Shaw had no legitimate basis IMO for issuing the warrant as written. Ms. Shaw at a minimum needs to be voted out of office when she comes up for reelection. Breonna Taylor: Louisville detective with no-knock warrant reassigned; Opinion | Breonna Taylor’s death was the result of Louisville police’s illegal no-knock warrant - The Washington Post

Based on what the police had, a search warrant could have been conducted a reasonable hour soon after Breonna returned from work, with the police simply knocking on the door, announcing their presence, and waiting for her to answer the door. That is what they would have done for a white woman under the same circumstances.  

There was no evidence that Ms. Taylor or her current boyfriend, Kenneth Walker, who was sleeping with her that night, were engaged in drug dealing. 

Ms. Taylor was once allegedly seen living her ex boyfriend's house, Jamarcus Glover, who was allegedly involved in drug dealing, with a package of unknown contents. The police claimed that the package may have contained drugs but had no proof. No drugs were found in her apartment after she was killed. 

The warrant to search Breonna's apartment was based on nothing more than conjecture and over active imaginations IMO.   

Glover was arrested that night at a different location. Breonna Taylor shooting fact check: 8 things people often get wrong

No warrant would have been sought or granted IMO for a white woman's apartment with that flimsy connection.  

Once the raid was conducted shortly after midnight, with the police barging into the apartment, everything that had been unjustifiably set in motion by the police and the judge ended in disaster.

Walker legitimately believed there was a home invasion; and he fired 1 shot that triggered a barrage of shots fired into Breonna who was innocently standing in a hallway and none into Walker who fired the shot, indicating negligence on the use of force. Walker and Breonna had been awakened by the police breaking down the door. 

The evidence is disputed on whether the officers announced themselves before forcing entry into the home.  One neighbor claims that she heard the officers say "police" while other neighbors and Mr. Walker say they heard nothing.  

Glover was   offered a plea deal if he signed a statement that Breonna was involved in trafficking  drugs which he refused to do.  Plea Deal Required Drug Suspect To Name Breonna Taylor A 'Co-Defendant' : NPR; Breonna Taylor's ex-boyfriend was offered a deal to say she was involved in organized crime | TheHill 

The Louisville Police arrested the only black female state legislator, Atticia Scott, last week for walking peacefully before curfew to seek sanctuary at a nearby church. Kentucky's only Black female legislator arrested in Breonna Taylor protest The police then blocked entry to the church and arrested her on felony rioting charges after noticing that she was recording the event on her phone which she later posted to her Instagram account. The white police chief Robert Schroeder defended the arrest. Kentucky state Rep. Attica Scott, who proposed ‘Breonna’s Law’ to end no-knock search warrants statewide, arrested at protest - The Washington Post

++++

 

Bob Woodward's Book "Rage": 

I am listening to the audiobook version on Scribd. 

Woodward quotes Dan Coats, Donald's former Director of National Security and a retired republican senator from Indiana, saying Donald is "impervious" to facts. That is not news. And, Coates could not shake a belief that Putin had something on the Duck. Woodward book: Former intel chief Dan Coats believed "Putin had something on Trump" - Axios; Bob Woodward Has Another Scoop: It Is NOT Good for the President – BillMoyers.com

Donald Trump's 18 recorded interviews with Bob Woodward for his book "Rage" - YouTube

Rage is an apt description of Donald's normal state of being. 

Why this Woodward book is devastating to Trump (opinion) 

Unlike the Cohen book, Woodward may cause a few fence sitters to vote for Biden based on the disclosures relating to Trump's grossly negligent handling of the pandemic and constant lying on all matters relating to it. 

++++

The Trumpster Tucker Carlson: 

Carlson has an hour long program on Fox "news" which I am unable to watch since I find the anchor exceedingly repulsive and almost as much a jerk as his soulmate Donald Trump. 

To be fair to Tucker, he does not generate as much Fake News as Donald who pours forth false and misleading statements throughout the day. 

I do read about some of Carlson's Fake News reports. A recent one involving my hometown caught my eye. 

This particular Fake News segment  originated from a Fox "news" station in Nashville (WZTV) that invented a story that Nashville's Major John Cooper, a bland, non-ideological democrat, had suppressed low virus transmission figures at local bars and restaurants. This data was released and the Fox "news" story was  pure fiction.  

This did not prevent Carlson from haranguing Nashville's Mayor in his opening statement, asserting the "remarkable" story aired by the Fox "news" Nashville affiliate WZTV offered "conclusive proof" that political leaders were lying about the virus. 

Carlson added that the policy was to "hide all good news" so that the fear will not end and the politicians power will not subside. This is all typical fact free demagoguery and hyperbole that passes for journalism in Trump's America. 

 

Fox News apologizes ‘for any confusion’ after featuring debunked story about Nashville mayor’s coronavirus data - MarketWatch; Right-wing media want to force out Nashville’s mayor based on a wild misreading of coronavirus emails | Media Matters for America

Debunked COVID-19 story on Fox News, but Tucker Carlson doubles down - Chicago Tribune When Carlson was confronted with the facts, he doubled down saying we "will never the truth". Yes, the truth is known outside of TrumpWorld. The data was released to the public a s the local Fox station acknowledged before Carlson doubled down on his false story.  Nashville restaurants and bars account for few confirmed COVID-19 cases – Tennessee Lookout It is not possible to shame Carlson, Trump, Hannity, Limbaugh or Ingraham with the truth. 

PolitiFact | Tucker Carlson

Opinion | Tucker Carlson won’t let Ruth Bader Ginsburg rest in peace - The Washington Post (9/22/20) 

Hours after a judge describes Tucker Carlson as ‘engaging in exaggeration,’ Trump highlights his false claims - The Washington Post (9/25/20 article)

In unearthed audio, Tucker Carlson makes numerous misogynistic and perverted comments | Media Matters for America He is just right for Trump's America. 

++++ 

Covid-19 updates: 

In TrumpWorld, the pandemic disappeared with the summer weather. Trump says coronavirus will ‘miraculously’ be gone by April ‘once the weather warms up’ - YouTube 

As of 9/25/20 

Trump claims White House can overrule FDA's attempt to toughen guidelines for coronavirus vaccine In Trump's America, Donald can do whatever he wants.  

Stanford researchers who criticized Dr. Scott Atlas say they won't be silenced Atlas hired a Trump attorney to threaten those scientists. Former Stanford colleagues warn Dr. Scott Atlas fosters 'falsehoods and misrepresentations of science' - ABC News;  Stanford Medical faculty lambaste former colleague and Trump coronavirus advisor Dr. Scott Atlas; The Cost of Herd Immunity in the U.S. | MedPage Today; Trump’s New Favorite COVID Adviser Thinks “Herd Immunity” Is a Good Idea | Vanity Fair

Coronavirus mutation seen in massive new study of genetic sequences from Houston - The Washington Post

CDC says it erroneously posted guidance that said coronavirus spreads through air and travels beyond 6 feet The CDC can not be believed on matters relating to Covid-19 since it changes its recommendations and guidance based on political pressure from the Trump Administration.  

Trump Again Overstates Speed of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout - FactCheck.org  

Lying Don repeated his false claim last Monday that coronavirus affects "virtually no young people" below the age of 18. Trump falsely claims that for young people COVID-19 'affects virtually nobody,' though in March he told Bob Woodward 'plenty of young people' are impacted by the virus | Business Insider Donald is incapable of being honest about all matters relating to the pandemic. 

Covid-19 can spread on airplanes, studies show - CNN

“That’s Their Problem”: How Jared Kushner Let the Markets Decide America’s COVID-19 Fate | Vanity Fair

The Pentagon funneled coronavirus relief funds to defense contractors - The Washington Post

Trump says U.S. will manufacture enough coronavirus vaccine doses for every American by April

NIH official William Crews  to 'retire' after report ID'd him as author of anti-Fauci posts on right-wing blog - CNN While working for NIH, Crews posted disparaging comments about Fauci on a right wing blog called RedState. Crews called Fauci a "mask Nazi" and claimed that wearing masks was just a political statement. RedState COVID Troll Streiff is Actually Bill Crews, and He Actually Works for Dr. Anthony Fauci, citing one of Crews' Posts that contains the usual Trumpster reality creations: Can't We Just Say It? This Wuhan Panic Was a Fraud Driven by Politics and for the Aggrandizement of Power

+++++

1. Small Ball: 

The emphasis  remains on using small ball "wave buying" programs to buy beaten up dividend paying stocks. I am more actively including 5 year charts to highlight the beaten up status which is also shown the "stock information" snapshot that has the 52 week return. 

As previously discussed, small regional banks are dicey at present, given NIM suppression through extremely abnormal federal reserve monetary policy and the pandemic induced recession that has increased loan losses and accelerated buildup of loan loss reserves. 

However, they certainly fit the criteria of being beaten up badly, which has increased their dividend yields and lowered their GAAP P/E ratios using 12 month trailing earnings. 

While it is not reasonable, or even rational, now to predict an end to interest rate suppression in the near term (within 2 years), the jury is still out on whether there is a V shaped recovery that will accelerate in 2021 that will alleviate the loan loss issue and possibly lead to a reversal of loan loss reserves. 

When discussing AMCX in Item 1.I. below, I mention that it is 1 of 30 stocks selected by Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula to beat the market.  

A. Added to CZNC-Bought 10 at $17.2; 5 at $16.65; 5 at $15.55:

Quote: Citizens & Northern Corp. (CZNC) 

"Citizens & Northern Corporation is the bank holding company for Citizens & Northern Bank, headquartered in Wellsboro, Pennsylvania which operates 29 banking offices located in Bradford, Bucks, Cameron, Chester, Lycoming, McKean, Potter, Sullivan and Tioga Counties in Pennsylvania and Steuben County in New York, as well as loan production offices in Elmira, New York and Warminster and York, Pennsylvania."

Stock Information as of 9/25:

Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Restarted CZNC- Bought 10 at $17.7; 5 at $17.07 (6/13/20 Post) I discussed the first quarter report in that post. 

CZNC Analyst Estimates 

Regional Bank Basket Strategy

CZNC SEC Filings

Current Position: 30 Shares 

Average Cost Per share: $ 17.01

Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually)

Last Ex Dividend: 7/24/20

Dividend Yield at $17.01  = 6.35 %

Owned Properties as of 12/31/2019: 10-K at page 7  

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

"Net income was $0.39 per diluted share in the second quarter 2020, up from $0.30 in the first quarter 2020 and $0.27 in the second quarter 2019. Excluding the effects of merger-related expenses, adjusted (non-U.S. GAAP) earnings per share were $0.45 per share for the second quarter 2020, up from a similarly adjusted $0.31 per share for the first quarter 2020." 

Acquisition related expenses lowered net income:

NPA and NPL ratios are currently well above average and the coverage ratio below average. Those ratios are major negative currently.  

NIM: 3.65%

Efficiency Ratio: 63.28% (too high IMO)

NPL Ratio: 1.74%

NPA Ratio: 1.33%

Coverage Ratio: 51.11% 

ROA: 1.15%

ROE: 7.71%

Tangible Book Value Per Share: $16.39 SEC Filing 

Capital Ratios: Excellent IMO as of 6/30/20:

Sourced Page 77 of 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20 

Available for Sale Securities: 

CZNC Trading Profits to Date: $788.82

The largest gain was in 2011: Item # 1 Sold 100 CZNC at $16.53 (9/2/11 Post)(profit snapshot = $517.61); Item # 1 Bought 50 CZNC at $11.77 (8/12/2010 Post) and Item # 1 Added 50 CZNC at $10.46 (8/17/10 Post) 

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.  

Maximum Position: 50 Shares given elevated NPL ratio. 

B. Added to CXP-Bought 10 at $12.12; 10 at $11.57; 5 at $11.27; 5 at $10.9; 5 at $10.5: 

 

Quote: Columbia Property Trust Inc-An Office REIT

Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share, raised from $.2 effective for the June 2020 payment. 

Columbia Property Trust-Dividends

Last Ex Dividend Date: 8/31/20

Average Cost Per Share: $11.99

Yield at Average Cost: 7.01%

CXP SEC Filings

2019 Annual Report

Last Discussed: Item # 1.D.  (8/1/2020 Post) I discussed the second quarter earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here. 

Stock Information as of 9/25/20: 

5 Year Chart as of 9/25/20: 

Trading Strategy: Office REITs are struggling due to Covid. My buying will be in small lots, slowly building up to a 100 share position. Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share. Dividends will reinvested. Will consider selling highest cost lots when and if I can do so profitably. 

C. Added to PPT-Bought 10 at $4.59; 20 at $4.53; 10 at $4.43; 10 at $4.4: 

Quote: Putnam Premier Income Trust Overview- a bond CEF

As of 8/31/20, the bond weightings were 45.27% in AAA; 7.82% in AA; 1.82% in A; 6.3% in BBB; and the remainder in junk. (click portfolio characteristics tab at PPT - CEF Connect) 

Sponsor's Website: Putnam Premier Income Trust

SEC Filings

Holdings as of 4/30/20 

Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 1/31/20) 

Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. (6/6/20 Post); Item # 2.A. (4/4/20 Post)

Data Date of 8/27/20 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $4.8

Closing Market Price: $4.59

Discount: -4.38%

Data Date of 9/23/20 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $4.76

Closing Market Price: $4.4

Discount: -7.56%

Average Discounts as of 9/25/20: 

1 Year: -1.41%

3 Years: -4.27%

5 Years: -5.82%

PPT Putnam Premier Income CEF Connect

Position This Account: 489+ shares

Average Cost Per Share: $4.8 

Dividend: Monthly at $.035 per share ($.42 annually)

 

Yield at AC =  8.75%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/23/20 (bought a 10 share lot at $4.43 on the ex dividend date and 10 at $4.4 the day after, all other shares owned as of) 

Goal: Harvest the dividend and eventually escape at whatever profit may be had. 

D. Started PPT in Schwab Account-Bought 100 at $4.53: 

See Item 1.C. above. 

E. Started FCPVX-Bought $100 at $13.37; $150 at $12.91; $50 at $12.35: 

Quote: FCPVX | Fidelity Small Cap Value Fund Overview 

Sponsor's Website: Fidelity ® Small Cap Value Fund-Fidelity Investments

Expense Ratio: .66%

Fidelity® Small Cap Value (FCPVX)-Morningstar (rated 5 stars)

F. Started VONV as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $106.19; 1 at $102.82: 

Quote: VONV | Vanguard Russell 1000 Value ETF Overview 

Sponsor's Website: VONV - Vanguard Russell 1000 Value ETF 

Expense Ratio: .08%

Dividends: Quarterly

Last Ex Dividend Date:  9/11/20

Some Top Holdings: 

Prior Trades: None 

G. Restarted VFH-Bought 2 at $60.79; 1 at $57.93: 

Quote:  Vanguard Financials ETF Overview 

Sponsor's Website: VFH-Vanguard Financials ETF 

Expense Ratio: .1%

Dividends: Quarterly

Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/11/20 

Some Top Holdings as of 8/31/20 :

Prior Sell:  Item # 1 Sold 50 VFH at $33.56 (10/18/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $119.97); Item # 2 Sold 50 VFH at $31.05 (2/14/12)(+$92.47); Item # 2 Sold 100 of the ETF VFH at 34.88 (2/27/11 Post)(profit snapshot = $403.28)

Other Trades: +$143.84

VFH Realized Gains to Date: $759.56

H. Restarted UBSI-Bought 1 at $26.6; 1 at $26.34; 3 at $25.95; 5 at $25.54; 2 at $24.6; 1 at $24.32; 2 at $24.04;  1 at $23.68; 1 at $22.21; 1 at $21.81; 1 at $21.3; 2 at $20.9 : 

 

That is a lot of orders to reach 21 shares. 

Quote: United Bankshares Inc. 

"As of June 30, 2020, United had consolidated assets of approximately $26.2 billion. United is the parent company of United Bank, the largest community bank headquartered in the D.C. Metro region. United Bank has 226 offices in West Virginia, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and the nation’s capital."

UBSI Analyst Estimates 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

UBSI SEC Filings

Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share ($1.4 annually)

United Bankshares Declares Third Quarter Dividend

Last Ex Dividend: 9/10/20  (owned 10 as of)

Average Cost Per Share: $24.33  (21 shares)

Dividend Yield at AC:  5.75%

Stock Information as of 9/25/20:

5 Year Financial History:  10-K

5 Year Chart: 

Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

"Earnings for the second quarter of 2020 were $52.7 million as compared to earnings of $67.2 million for the second quarter of 2019. Earnings for the first half of 2020 were $92.9 million as compared to earnings of $130.8 million for the first half of 2019. The lower amount of net income in 2020 was driven primarily by significant merger-related expenses from the Carolina Financial Corporation (“Carolina Financial”) acquisition and a higher provision for loan losses resulting from an adverse future macroeconomic forecast as a result of the coronavirus ("COVID-19") pandemic under the the new Current Expected Credit Loss (“CECL”) accounting standard."

NIM: 3.18%

ROA: .87%

Charge Off Ratio: .10%

NPA Ratio: .71%

Efficiency Ratio: 57.68%

Loan to Deposit ratio: 90.44%

Tangible Book Value Per Share: $18.28 

Capital: 

Prior Trade: Item # 1 Sold 50 UBSI at $41.58-Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 8/7/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = +$1,235.01)

Maximum Position: 100 shares

Purchase restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, has to lower my average cost per share. If the price breaks below $20, I will probably increase my purchase lot size to 5 shares. 

I. Started AMCX-BOUGHT 1 at $25.02; 1 at $23.75; 1 at $23.39; 1 at $23.15; 1 at $23;  1 at $21.99; 2 at $21.9; 3 at $21.4; 2 at $21.17; 2 at $20.9; 1 at $20.32 and Sold 1 at $25.12: 

Purchases: 

Sell: 

Yes, I know that this is ridiculous, but these small buys and sells are the only way that I will participate in the stock market now. The 1 share sold was the highest cost lot which reduced my average cost per share from $22.05 to $21.85. 

After Pare Snapshot Intraday on 9/16/20  

This is a slow build up to a maximum 50 share position. 

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain. 

Quote:  AMC Networks Inc. Cl A (AMCX) 

"AMC Networks is a global entertainment company known for delivering high-quality content to audiences and a valuable platform to distributors and advertisers.  The Company, which operates several of the most recognizable brands in entertainment, manages its business through two operating segments: (i) National Networks, which principally includes AMC, BBC AMERICA, IFC, SundanceTV and WE tv; and AMC Studios, the Company’s television production business; and (ii) International and Other, which principally includes AMC Networks International, the Company’s international programming business; AMC Networks SVOD, the Company's targeted subscription streaming services, Acorn TV, Shudder, Sundance Now and UMC (Urban Movie Channel); Levity Entertainment Group, the Company’s production services and comedy venues business; and IFC Films, the Company's independent film distribution business."

I subscribe to AMC's streaming, ad-free premium service. 

I discussed purchasing this stock in a comment published on 9/16. 

Stock Information as of 9/25/20: 

AMCX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

AMCX SEC Filings 

After my purchases, the shares popped in response to a modified Dutch tender offer to acquire up to $250M in stock. SEC Filed Press Release ("AMC Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: AMCX) today announced that on September 16, 2020 it plans to commence a “modified Dutch auction” tender offer to purchase up to $250 million in value of its outstanding Class A common stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “Class A Shares”), at a price per Class A Share of not less than $22.50 and not greater than $26.50.")

5 Year Chart as of 9/25/20: 

5 Year Financials: 10-K at page 33  

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): AMC Networks Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2020 Results 

"National Networks revenues for the second quarter 2020 decreased 18.0% to $496 million, operating income decreased 12.4% to $188 million, and adjusted operating income decreased 11.2% to $210 million, all compared to the prior year period. . . Second quarter revenues reflected a 14.6% decrease in advertising revenues to $187 million. The decrease in advertising revenues was primarily related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in lower demand, as well as the timing of the airing of original programming. Distribution revenues decreased 19.9% to $308 million. The decrease in distribution revenues was attributable to a decrease in both subscription revenues and content licensing revenues." (emphasis added)

10-Q 

How AMC Juggernaut 'The Walking Dead' Will Live On | Benzinga

A recent SA article discusses AMCX and is not yet behind the SA paywall. AMC Networks: The Magic Formula-Seeking Alpha The Magic Formula refers to Joel Greenblatt's selection criteria for stocks. Magic Formula Investing (registration required to run screens) AMCX is currently among the top 30 companies with at least a $50M market cap. I have not run a screen at that site for several years, but do currently own 3 of the 30 companies that were selected using other criteria. Greenblatt's criteria are discussed in his book The Little Book That Still Beats the Market which I have read.   

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (8/4/20): 5 stars with a FV of $46

S & P (8/19/20): 4 stars with a twelve month PT of $28

J. Started BAC-Bought 2 at $25.61; 1 at $25.28; 1 at $23.97; 2 at $23.7; 1 at $23.31:

Quote: Bank of America Corp. (BAC) 

Berkshire Hathaway has a larger position. 

BAC Analyst Estimates 

BAC SEC Filings 

Stock Information as of 9/25/20: 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share, last raised from $.15 effective for the 2019 second quarter payment ($.72 annually)

I would describe BAC's dividend history as poor, indicating a high decree of unreliability. Dividend/Split History | Bank of America Corporation The quarterly rate was at $.64 per share in 2008 and was slashed in stages to $.01 effective for the 2009 first quarter payment. The quarterly penny rate remained at 1 cent until BAC raised it to 5 cents effective for the 2015 first quarter payment.  

Last Ex Dividend: 9/3/20 

Average Cost per share = $24.45 (8 shares) 

Dividend Yield at AC = 2.94%

5 Year Financials: 

2019 Annual Report at page 28 

5 Year Chart: 

Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): Ugly due to the pandemic-recession. 

E.P.S. of $.37 or $3.5B in net income.  

The provision for credit losses during quarter, including a $4B reserve buildup, was $5.1B.  

 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (9/16/20): 3 stars with a FV of $28 (basically, I am comfortable with that rating and PT) The first sentence describes the historically poor acquisitions that led to a decade of trouble of trouble for shareholders, referring to Merrill Lynch as "shaky", Countrywide Financial as "shady"; and MBNA as "dysfunctional". 

S & P (7/16/20): 3 stars with a 12 month of $27 PT

Argus (7/16/20): Buy with a $30 PT

Credit Suisse (9/13/20): Outperform with a $31 PT. 

Maximum Position: 50 Shares

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must lower my average cost per share. I will consider reinvesting the dividends when and if I own 20 or more shares. 

K. Restarted FBNC-Bought 5 at $21; 5 at $20.45; 1 at $20.08: 

Quote: First Bancorp (North Carolina) 

Stock Information as of 9/25/20: 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy 

FBNC  Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

FBNC SEC Filings

Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share ($.72 annually)

First Bancorp Announces Cash Dividend

Next Ex Dividend: 9/29/20

Average Cost Per Share: $20.73 (10 shares)

Dividend Yield at AC = 3.47%

5 Year Financials:

2019 Annual Report at page 53 

5 Year Chart: 

Properties: 

Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

"First Bancorp (NASDAQ - FBNC), the parent company of First Bank, announced today net income of $16.4 million, or $0.56 per diluted common share, for the three months ended June 30, 2020 compared to $23.9 million, or $0.80 per diluted common share, recorded in the second quarter of 2019. . . The decrease in earnings for both periods in 2020 was primarily due to increases in the provisions for loan losses recorded, which were largely related to estimated losses arising from the economic impact of COVID-19. For the three months ended June 30, 2020, the Company recorded a provision for loan losses of $19.3 million compared to a negative provision of $0.3 million in the second quarter of 2019." (emphasis added) 

Loan Deferral Information as of 6/30/20: The commercial real estate deferrals are worrisome IMO. 

Trading Profits to Date: $194

Item # 7 Sold 50 FBNC at $13.25 (9/28/2010)

L. Started AIQ (Vanguard taxable account)-Bought 5 at $24.13; 2 at $23.34; 2 at $22.8: 

Quote: Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF 

Sponsor's Website: Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF

Expense Ratio: .68%

Top 10 Holdings as of 9/24/20: 

M. Started AIQ (Schwab taxable account)-Bought 2 at $22.9 AND 3  at $22.55: 

See Item #1.L. above. 

N.  Sold 2 MGC at $125.72: 

Quote: MGC | Vanguard Mega Cap ETF Overview

Profit Snapshot: +$88.48 (8/31//20 sell only)

Item # 2.I.  Bought 1 MGC at $83 (3/21/20 Post); Item # 1.G. Added 1 MGC at $80 (5/16/20 Post)

Sponsor's Website: MGC - Vanguard Mega Cap ETF | Vanguard

Expense Ratio: .07%

Vanguard Mega Cap ETF (MGC)-Morningstar

MGC includes both mega cap growth and value stocks. 

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF  (MGK) contains the "growth" mega cap stocks that have largely fueled the parabolic rise in the S & P 500 since March.  

The  Vanguard Mega Cap Value ETF  (MGV) has been the laggard. I have redeployed the proceeds from MGC into MGV. 

O. Restarted PNNT-Bought 10 at $3.27: 

Quote: PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT) 

Stock Information as of 9/25/20: 

SEC Filings 

Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2 Sold 131+ PNNT at $6.6 (1/2/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.17 NET); Item # 1.B. Sold 50 PNNT at $7.35-Highest Cost Lot (6/7/18 Post); Sold Roth IRA: 100 PNNT at $9.535 (2/17/15 Post); Item # 5 Sold 50 PNNT at $11.92 (12/17/13 Post)

Management: External, compensation undeserved IMO 

Investment Category: Deservedly Hated BDC

The five year total return through 8/26/20, the day of this 10 share purchase, was -11.28%. Total return includes dividend reinvestment. DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel 

The after tax return, when the shares are held in a taxable account, would be lower than -11.28%, possibly significantly lower, due to taxes owed on the dividend payments.   

When buying a BDC, I will have an exit strategy in place and will keep my total investment exposure extremely light using a small ball purchase strategy.  

The goal is always to escape at whatever profit is available after collecting a few dividend payments. That goal will frequently be difficult to achieve. 

5 Year Chart: 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.12

The penny rate was cut from $.18 to $.12 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment

Last Ex Dividend: 9/16/20 (owned as of) 

Current Position: 10 Shares

Yield at $3.27: 14.68%  

Net Asset Value Per Share History: Highly Unfavorable 

06/30/20   $7.82

12/31/19     $8.79

06/30/19   $8.74 

12/31/18     $9.05
12/31/17     $ 9.1
12/31/16     $ 9.11
12/31/15     $ 9.02
9/30/15      $ 9.82
12/31/14     $10.43
9/20/14      $11.03
12/31/13     $10.8
12/31/12     $10.38
12/31/10     $11.14
9/30/10      $10.69
12/31/09    $11.86
12/31/08    $10.24
12//31/07   $12.07
9/30/07      $12.83

IPO at $15 Prospectus April 2007

Using the $7.82 NAV per share, my purchase at $3.27 was at a 58.18% discount. The fact that this stock can be purchased at that huge discount reflects poorly on management. 

The Stock Jocks are anticipating that the external managers will continue to incinerate assets at a significant pace and consequently want a 50%+ cushion from the the last reported net asset value per share.      

Given this net asset value per share history, a 58.18% discount may prove to be an insufficient cushion.  

Sourced 10-Qs

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

NII Per Share: $.16

Net Asset Value Per Share: $7.82 (GAAP; adjusted non-GAAP at $7.46) 

"As of June 30, 2020, our portfolio totaled $1,333.3 million and consisted of $789.4 million of first lien secured debt, $237.5 million of second lien secured debt, $65.8 million of subordinated debt and $240.7 million of preferred and common equity. Our debt portfolio consisted of 94% variable-rate investments. As of June 30, 2020, we had one portfolio company on non-accrual, representing 2.5% and 2.3% of our overall portfolio on a cost and fair value basis, respectively. Overall, the portfolio had net unrealized depreciation of $105.2 million as of June 30, 2020. Our overall portfolio consisted of 86 companies with an average investment size of $15.5 million, had a weighted average yield on interest bearing debt investments of 8.7% and was invested 59% in first lien secured debt, 18% in second lien secured debt, 5% in subordinated debt and 18% in preferred and common equity."

P. Added 5 FNLC at $19.4: 

Quote: First Bancorp Inc. (FNLC)

Stock Information as of 9/25/20: 

I discussed this small regional bank based in Maine in my last post. Item # 1.I. Restarted FNLC-Bought 5 at $20.2 (9/19/20 Post) 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Current Position: 10 shares 

 

Average Cost Per Share: $19.8

Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share

The First Bancorp Declares Third Quarter Dividend 

Next Ex Dividend: 10/5/20

Yield at $19.8 = 6.23%

FNLC Realized Gains to Date: $1,143.16

2. Equity Preferred Stocks: 

A. Added to AGROPRA-Bought 5 at $24.99:

Quote: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. Series A Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock This is a fixed -to-floating rate preferred stock that currently pays a 7% coupon on a $25 par value. 

Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities

Last Ex Dividend: 8/28/20 (owned 10 as of)

Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Started AGROPRA-Bought 10 at $25.3 (8/22/20 Post) 

I have nothing to add to that recent discussion.  

Current Position: 15 shares 

Average Cost per share = $25.2

Current Yield at AC = 6.944%

3. Issuer Redemption THGA Junior Exchange Traded Bond: 

Hanover Insurance exercised its right to redeem its 6.35% exchange traded junior bond at its $25 par value plus accrued and unpaid interest. 

Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a subcategory of  Exchange Traded Bond

Profit Snapshots: 3 Accounts +$354.98 (85 Shares)

2020 THGA 65 Shares +$268.21

Last Purchase Discussion: Item # 3.A. Bought 50 THGA at $22.51; 5 at $19.25 and 10 at $13.51 (3/21/20 Post) Exchange traded bonds will plummet in price during major volatility spikes for common stocks. Those purchases were all made in March 2020. 

Some Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 5.A. Eliminated THGA-Sold 60 at $25.97 (4/19/19 Post); Item # 5.A. Sold 50 THGA at $25.69-Roth IRA Account and Item 5.B. Sold 50 THGA at $25.72 (9/11/2017);Item # 4 Sold 50 THGA at $25.36 (1/29/17 Post) 

THGA Trading Profits:  $684.63 ($329.65 in prior sells)

If this exchange traded baby bond had a make whole provision, and none do, the issuer would not have exercised an optional redemption right and the price would be close to $30 since investors would be protected from an early redemption and consequently would continue to receive interest at a 6.35% for years to come.  While there may be a future time when that does not look so hot, it is now the Bond Ghoul equivalent of pure gold. The 20 year treasury closed at a 1.19% yield last Friday. Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates

In a recent comment, I discussed how a make whole provision required a premium payment for an optional redemption of a $1K par value bond that would otherwise mature in 2023.  

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.