Economy:
Existing-Home Sales Soar 9.4% to 6.5 Million in September | www.nar.realtor
Average holiday spend per U.S. household expected to drop 7%, Deloitte says - MarketWatch
Why business demand won't recover before summer 2021, according to finance chiefs - MarketWatch This article reports the results of a recent Deloitte survey of CFOs.
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
Unemployment claims are down. It’s not all for good reasons For the week ending 10/17, initial unemployment claims filed with the states fell to 787,000, down 55K from the previous week.
Covid: U.S. reports more than 71,600 new cases as hospitalizations rise Donald has been saying for about the past 9 months that the U.S. was turning the corner on the pandemic. That reminds me of line from Princess Bride: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - YouTube Maybe someone who wants to be fired by Donald immediately could informed him that "turning the corner" does not mean what he thinks it means.
The pandemic looks like it will be a drag on the economy through the winter.
+++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 10/23/20:
GAAP Trailing 12 Months: 38.25
Non-GAAP Estimated Forward 12 months: 25.55
S & P 500 Dividend Yield: 1.73%
Sourced: P/E & Yields
Technology stocks may be about to drown in their own greatness, says JPMorgan - MarketWatch
Fiscal stimulus may not be enough to boost bank stocks, says J.P. Morgan - MarketWatch
How Much Money to Have Saved to Retire by Age 67
Intel stock slumps after weak data center results, chip delay I do not have a position. I will consider starting a small ball "purchase program" when I have more of a downside cushion than now. I last eliminated Intel in 2018 with an evaporation of the valuation cushion. Intel's problems 'are likely just getting started,' analyst warns as stock slides - MarketWatch
This regional bank stock has done well since my small ball purchase, closing last Friday at $24.65. Union Bankshares Inc. (UNB) The market cap at that price is about 110.306M. If I owned more shares, I would have sold some when the price went over $25. Item # 1.N. Bought 5 UNB Schwab Account at $18.4 (8/29/20 Post); Item # 1.J. Restarted UNB-Bought 5 at $18.5; 5 at $18.19 (8/22/20 Post) The last report was solid but some of the factors contributing to the result are likely short term (mortgage banking profits) or definitely short term as with the PPP fee income. SEC Filed 3rd Quarter Report ("Consolidated net income for the three months ended September 30, 2020 was $4.1 million, or $0.92 per share, compared to $2.7 million, or $0.62 per share, for the same period in 2019.") UNB is benefiting, as are many small regional banks, from their mortgage business: "Sales of qualifying residential loans to the secondary market for the third quarter of 2020 were $89.8 million resulting in gain on sales of $3.3 million, compared to sales of $44.7 million and gain on sales of $824 thousand for the third quarter of 2019." The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $.32 per share.
++++
Portfolio Management:
The TINA Trade-There Is No Alternative
Part of the TINA trade involves exchange traded bonds and preferred stocks.
My investment grade corporate bonds, municipal bonds, CDs and treasuries are in a runoff phase.
I am picking up decent yields in out-of-favor common stocks that have what I would call a valuation cushion based on recent price declines.
I attempt to limit the potential downside risk through small ball trading, purchases and sells, even though I will frequently view the first purchase as being in a longer term fair value range for the business.
Some of the sectors where valuation cushions have been created through price declines include regional bank, BDC, life insurance, equity REITs, and energy infrastructure (only regular "C" corporations for me) stocks.
I have expanded the universe of what I am willing to own in small doses, which includes small positions in a number of growth stock ETFs and mutual funds. Those have been working as of late, but those stocks are bungee jumpers and presently in the jump up phase.
I have picked up my dollar exposure to bond and stock CEFs.
I am not making any dent in my high cash allocation. The cash allocation is remaining stable as a percentage of total assets reflecting net risk asset purchases, rallies in several stock sectors and a lower flow of cash received from maturing fixed income securities and those redeemed early by the issuer.
I will not have an optional redemption of a municipal bond until 2022. I have not sold any. My average weighted tax free current yield is a tick over 3% based on my total cost number.
The following tables contain the stocks currently owned in my regional bank basket strategy, with 1 exception that I will probably eliminate next week. A few stocks have not yet been discussed here:
55 stocks
PFC has a dividend yield of 4.58%, using its closing price, which is not picked up by Yahoo Finance in the last table above. Premier Financial Corp. I have not yet discussed a 10 share purchase at $18.2, made on 10/21
Closing prices and gains are as of the 10/23/20 close.
The trailing 12 month P/Es include some rough quarters.
My sector stock baskets are mini funds.
++++
Trump:
On a daily basis now, Donald is proving beyond any doubt that he is unfit to be President. That obvious factual statement has nothing to do with ideology.
I would not trust him to tell me the truth on any subject.
Trump is averaging more than 50 false or misleading claims a day - The Washington Post (10/22/2020). For the first 27 days in August, Donald made 1,506 false and misleading statements, or 56 per day, with some days logged at 189 (a new record) on 8/11/2020 and 147 on both 8/17 and 8/20. I am not aware of anyone in U.S. history who lies as much as Donald. We will know in a few days how many Americans will vote to give this sociopathic, lying demagogue another 4 years as President.
Fact check: The final 2020 presidential election debate Trump bombarded voters with more false statements than in the prior debate.
FactChecking the Final 2020 Presidential Debate - FactCheck.org Trump is incapable of telling the truth and lies constantly, yet 81% of republicans believe that he is honest. Question 11: National (US) Poll - June 18, 2020
In violation of his agreement with CBS, Donald pre-released the video of his 60 minutes interview that CBS will air tomorrow. Trump's '60 Minutes' interview with Lesley Stahl: top moments My reaction is that he wanted to get ahead of the negative blowback.
Supreme Court will hear Trump appeal to exclude undocumented immigrants from count
FactChecking Trump's Town Hall - FactCheck.org It is just amazing that anyone with IQ higher that a potted plant would consider Donald to be honest.
How Trump took credit for the 2014 VA Choice Act, denying Obama’s, McCain’s contributions - The Washington Post, republished at MSN: Spin, hyperbole and deception: How Trump claimed credit for an Obama veterans achievement
State Department signals it will keep most details of its spending at Trump’s properties hidden until after election - The Washington Post; republished at MSN: State Department signals it will keep most details of its spending at Trump’s properties hidden until after election
Romney: Trump's refusal to disavow QAnon is part of "alarming pattern" in politics - Axios
Romney might as well be talking to himself. His words have no relevance or impact in Trump's party. Mitt Romney says he did not vote for Trump in the 2020 election There is no daylight between Donald and the republican party.
Ex-RNC chair Michael Steele officially endorses Biden | TheHill
PolitiFact | Trump falsely says federal debt was going down before the pandemic
PolitiFact | Donald Trump’s long, false list of things Joe Biden would ban, abolish or destroy
Trump's Misleading Medicare Boast - FactCheck.org
Trump targets Democratic VP nominee Kamala Harris in sexist rant - Business Insider
Trump's Long History With Conspiracy Theories - FactCheck.org
See what these Trump supporters say about QAnon
QAnon events: A CNN reporter went to two. Here's what he found One of the more intelligent QAnon True Believers had a sign declaring that Tom Hanks was a pedophile. The reporter ask him what proof did have supporting that declaration, which was libel per se. The True Believer shot back angrily what proof did the reporter have to prove that Tom was not a pedophile. The reporter then pointed out that the person making the accusation had to have the proof, which is correct of course, and that made the Trumpster angry. How would Tom prove that he was not a pedophile. How do you prove a negative? He could gather together every single person that he had met since he was a young child, but that would be futile since he would not remember all of their names or how to contact them. Assuming he found several thousand people that knew him, and have them sign affidavits that they never saw him engage in that conduct and further attest to his good character. But, even then, the QAnon True Believer would say that he intentionally missed the victims in that mountain of affidavits attesting to his innocence and good character. QAnon Isn’t Going Away: The Atlantic Daily - The Atlantic
Trump, easily the most prominent spreader of baseless conspiracy theories in U.S. history, does the same, accusing people without proof and contrary to the available evidence of committing a felony or some immoral or unethical act that he has committed and denies of course.
What proof did Donald have, for example, when he accused Joe Scarborough of murdering his intern. He had none and all of the proof established that the intern died an accidental death.
How Republican Voters Took QAnon Mainstream - The New York Times
Why Trump Won't Denounce QAnon - The Atlantic The QAnon supporters are a growing and important part of the GOP's core base.
The Right’s Disinformation Machine Is Hedging Its Bets
Trump at a Rally 10/19: “I call some guy, the head of Exxon. I call the head of Exxon. I don’t know. … ‘How are you doing? How’s energy coming? When are you doing the exploration? Oh, you need a couple of permits?’ But I call the head of Exxon I say, ‘You know, I’d love [for you] to send me $25 million for the campaign.’ ‘ Absolutely sir .. would you like some more?’" He called his comments a hypothetical. Trump Explains Theoretical Bribery He Could Do | Law & Crime; Exxon, after Trump's hypothetical bribery comment: 'Just so we’re all clear, it never happened' - MarketWatch
Sen. Ernst, Who Sits On Agriculture Committee Can’t Name Price Of Soybeans-YouTube She had no idea and tried to evade answering a simple question about the price of soybeans. Senator Ernst came into prominence during her first campaign for the senate, claiming that she had castrated a pig and was shown riding a Harley-her two most noteworthy achievements to become a U.S. senator. Ignorance is a virtue in Trump's party.
Texas social workers can now turn away LGBTQ, disabled clients
The Whiner-in-Chief complains about almost everything. Trump campaign protests topics of final presidential debate - POLITICO People are so mean to the Duck, unwilling to recognize that he is after all the Chosen One, a role model for republican children due in large part to his integrity, modesty, selflessness and honesty.
Ted Cruz Supported Eight Justices on Supreme Court if Hillary had been elected | Law & Crime
Trump Is Practically Begging Barr to Dig Up Dirt on the Bidens | Vanity Fair (10/20/20) Dictator Don's demand made to his servile, slithering Attorney General was made last Tuesday during a long rant on Fox and Friends.
‘Where are all of the arrests?’: Trump demands Barr lock up his foes - POLITICO;
Rally crowd chants 'lock him up' as Trump calls Biden family 'a criminal enterprise' | TheHill;
Trump pressures Barr to investigate, lock up Bidens
Parents of 545 children separated at US border still can't be found
New York Times: Tax records show Trump maintains Chinese bank account; Trump Records Shed New Light on Chinese Business Pursuits - The New York Times
GOP pollster Frank Luntz on Trump-Biden town halls, undecided voters Luntz claims that the voters who are still undecided dislike Trump but are also worried about Biden's policies. If those voters do no break to the incumbent President soon, historical evidence indicates that they will break to the challenger.
Trump Slams 'Fake' Fox News Poll Showing Biden Leading in Majority of Swing States
Trump says he hopes Supreme Court strikes down ObamaCare- TheHill Donald will have a replacement, a much cheaper and far better plan and will announce it at some future time.
Trump ad on America's comeback features footage from Russia, Slovenia
Lincoln Project Mocks Trump With Fake Retro Ad Pushing Covid Drug-YouTube
Remember El Paso (English)-YouTube This ad focuses on one example where Donald and Fox "news" contributed to a violent attack by a Trump cult member.
Teen with van full of guns had checklist to 'execute' Joe Biden, authorities say
Previously, I have mentioned Jason Miller, one of Donald's senior advisors. It is important for people to understand the kind of people that Trump elevates to important positions. Deadbeat | The Lincoln Project
+++
Covid 19-Updates:
 |
| As of 10/23/20 |
All of the times President Trump said Covid-19 will disappear
Increase in Covid cases sets U.S. record, at over 77K in one day (10/23/20); America hits highest daily number of coronavirus cases since pandemic began (WP article republished for now at MSN)
Trump Mocks Reporter for Wearing 'Largest' Mask As U.S. Reports 71,000 Daily COVID Cases
Trump hasn't spent $9 billion earmarked for COVID-19 testing: report - Business Insider, referring to this WP article: Trump’s den of dissent: Inside the White House task force as coronavirus surges - The Washington Post
Dr. Don on 10/19/20: "People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots.” Coronavirus: Trump calls Fauci a 'disaster,' says people 'are tired of Covid'
Just listen to Dr. Don who knows more than any of those scientists, really more than all the scientists who have ever lived or will live in the future, not only on earth, but everywhere in the Universe since the big bang.
During the first debate with Sleepy Joe, Dr. Don said he was being "sarcastic" when he recommended that people drink household cleaners to treat Covid-19. Biden mocks Trump over disinfectant remark; Trump says he was being sarcastic | TheHill
Doofus Don was serious of course when he made those remarks. You only have to watch the video and have an IQ higher than a potted plant to come to the only conclusion possible: Trump on use of disinfectant, light against virus - YouTube
Twitter removes tweet from the top Trump Covid adviser, Dr. Scot Atlas saying masks don't work "Everything he says is false," a recent statement by the CDC director statement referring to Atlas. So it is not surprising that Dr. Don, Phd and M.D. in B.S., relies on Atlas for recommendations.
Kansas City area hospital hits record number of covid cases | The Kansas City Star
Wisconsin admits 1st patient to field hospital, reports record COVID-19 deaths - ABC News
U.S. Sets Coronavirus Case Record Amid New Surge - The New York Times (10/23/20)
Covid-19 Patients Push U.S. Hospitals to Brink - The New York Times (10/23/20) Flu season is just starting.
SUNY Oneonta president resigns after more than 700 students test positive for Covid-19
Covid-19 cases climbing in almost every state as U.S. braces for possible 'third peak' (10/18/20)
Coronavirus hospitalizations at peak in at least 16 states (10/19/20)
New Covid infections surge by at least 50 percent in some states (10/19/20)
Donald has a campaign ad out that shows him wearing a mask on multiple occasions. New Trump ad features multiple clips of president wearing mask | TheHill The intent is to send a message to the brain dead inconsistent with his actual conduct and words that downplayed and even belittled the importance of mask wearing. What Trump Has Said About Wearing Masks and Covid-19 - The New York Times Donald's messaging depends on the recipients remaining stupid, ignorant and gullible, all of those conditions must continue to exist for the messaging to have an impact favorable to him. Fortunately for him, there is no shortage of persons who meet all of those criteria.
Texas woman died of coronavirus 'on the jetway' on flight from Arizona
Mask request by Starbucks barista prompts customer tirade: 'This is America ... Trump 2020!'
The Trump Administration Shut a Vaccine Safety Office Last Year. What’s the Plan Now? - The New York Times; republished at MSN: The Trump Administration Shut a Vaccine Safety Office Last Year. What’s the Plan Now?
++++++++
1. Small Ball: Baseball analogy-Small ball (baseball)-Wikipedia (bunt, walk, hit by pitch, singles, stealing bases, etc.)
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved:
The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled and disciplined trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield.
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure.
A. Added to AOD-Bought 10 at $8.08:
Quote: Aberdeen Total Dynamic Dividend Fund Overview
Last Discussed: Item # 1 Started AOD -Bought 50 at $8.17 (9/12/20 Post)
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report - period ending 4/30/20
SEC Filed Portfolio as of 7/31/20
Dividend: Monthly at $.0575 per share ($.69 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 10/16/20 (owned as of)
Aberdeen Total Dynamic Dividend Fund Common Stock (AOD) Dividend History
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes as long as the likely discount to net asset value per share exceeds 10%.
Data Date of 10/13/20 Trade:
Net asset value per share: $9.44
Market Price: $8.07
Discount: -14.51%
Source: AOD-CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)
Average Cost Per Share: $8.15 7 (60+ shares)
Yield at AC = 8.47%
B. Added to PFBI-Bought 5 at $10.7 and Sold Highest Cost 5 shares at $12.75:
Purchase:
Sold:
Profit 5 shares = $3.74
Stock Information as of 10/23/20:
Quote: Premier Financial Bancorp Inc. (PFBI)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. Started PFBI-Bought 10 at $12; 5 at $11.4; 5 at $11.2 (10/3/20 Post) I discussed the second quarter earnings report in that post. The third quarter report has not yet been released.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share
New Average Cost per share: $11.43
Yield at AC = 5.25%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/14/20 (owned 20 shares as of)
C. Added to GLQ-Bought 2 at $11.11:
Quote: Clough Global Equity Fund Overview
Closing Price 10/23: GLQ $11.48 -$0.07 -0.61%
Last Discussed: Item #1.H. Started GLQ-Bought 10 at $11.37; 10 at $11.18 (8/8/20 Post)
Leveraged: Yes, substantially
Last SEC Filed Report (semiannual for the period ending 4/30/20)
Dividend: Monthly at $.1104 ($1.3248 annually)
Average Cost Per Share: $11.26 (22+ shares)
Yield at AC = 11.77%
Data Date of 9/22/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.45
Closing Market Price: $11.04
Discount: -16.65%
Sourced from GLQ - CEF Connect
D. Started EDIV-Bought 1 at $24.26; 4 at $23.95; 2 at $23.5:
Quote SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF
Closing Price 10/23: EDIV $24.92 +$0.26 +1.05%
"Emerging Markets Dividend ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P® Emerging Markets Dividend Opportunities Index" The ETF invests in the 100 highest yielding stocks in that Index.
Sponsor's Website: Emerging Markets Dividend ETF
TOP Holdings:
Expense Ratio: .49%
Dividend: Quarterly at a variable rate
Average Cost Per Share: $23.87 (7 shares)
Yield at AC: 4.11% rounded The actual future yield will vary. The calculation uses the total of the past 4 dividend payments which was $.98 per share rounded.
I am simply searching for yield wherever I can find it. I do not like ETFs that select the highest yielding stocks in an index since there are reasons many of them have high yields and those reasons are not favorable to either dividend growth or dividend stability at current payout rates.
Morningstar Rating: 1 Star
Total Return YTD as of 10/23:
The ETF did have positive total returns of 17.14%, 28.18%, and 11.8% in 2016, 2017, and 2019 respectively.
Part of the poor total return has been due to the weakness in the emerging market stock sector.
E. Added to ONB-Bought 5 at $12.23:
Quote: Old National Bancorp (ONB)
162 banking centers as of 9/30/20
Headquartered in Evansville, Indiana with branches located in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
$22.5B in assets as of 9/30/20
Stock Information as of 10/23:
Website: Old National Bank investor relations
Old National Bank 5 year Financial Highlights.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy (contains historical profit and loss trading snapshots for stocks in this basket)
Last Discussed: Item # 4.B. Restarted ONB-Bought 10 at $12.71 (6/27/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share $.56 annually)
Average Cost Per Share: $12.55
Yield at AC = 4.46%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/31/20
Earnings Report (6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $10.75
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): This earnings report was released after my purchases. In response, the stock was up 2.62% on a day that the S & P 500 fell $14.12.
Old National Bancorp EPS beats by $0.13-Seeking Alpha
Old National reports 3rd quarter earnings of $77.9 million, or $0.47 per share
"Included in the third quarter were pre-tax charges of $2.9 million for the ONB Way. Excluding these charges from the current quarter and netting out debt securities gains, adjusted net income was $76.4 million, or $0.46 per diluted share." The "ONB Way" is a restructuring program designed to reduce costs.
NIM: 3.03%
"Accretion income was $5.4 million, or 11 basis points of net interest margin, in the third quarter of 2020 compared to $5.8 million, or 12 basis points of net interest margin, in the second quarter of 2020."
Efficiency Ratio: 55.93% (good)
Charge-offs: None, with the bank reporting instead net recoveries of $3M (excellent +)
NPL Ratio: 1.15% (tad high)
ROE: 10.79% (good)
Return on Tangible Equity: 17.54% (excellent)
ROA: 1.4% (good +)
Good = Better than average
"cost of total deposits declined 4 basis points to 0.13% in the third quarter of 2020 while the cost of total interest-bearing deposits decreased 6 basis points to 0.19%" This benefit to NIM has run its course. The cost of deposits is not going below zero percent.
"gains on sales of debt securities increased $4.4 million when compared to the second quarter of 2020."
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $11.1
Capital Ratios: Okay IMO as of 9/30/20
Some Prior Sell Discussions: I can not find discussions for some sells where I have profit snapshots: $67.58 in 2015; $90.48 in 2016, both 50 share lots. I did briefly mention the 2016 in a 10/31/16 comment (sold 50 at $14.95)
Item # 4.A. Sold 10 ONB at $19.66 (7/29/18)(trade snapshot = $29.19);
Item 2.A. Eliminated ONB-Sold 50 Shares at $18.55 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$312.97)
Item # 6 Sold 50 ONB at $13.05-Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 6/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $69.5)
Item # 1 Sold 100 ONB at $13 (8/22/12 Post)(snapshot of profit=$99.07)
Item # 1 Sold 50 ONB at $14.12 (7/6/13 Post)(Profit snapshot=$95.13)
ONB Trading Profits to Date: $786.45
F. Added to BHB-Bought 1 at $19.15:
Quote: Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB)
Stock Information as of 10/23:
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Bond Offering: $40M of 4.625% fixed to floating rate subordinated notes maturing in 2029.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Added to BHB-Bought 5 at $17.5; 5 at $14; 2 at $13.8; 2 at $13.5 (5/2/2020 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share, last raised from $.2 effective for the 2019 second quarter payment.
Bar Harbor Bankshares Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
BHB had been raising its dividend annually in the second quarter. There was no increase in the 2020 second quarter due to the recession and pandemic.
Average Cost per share this account= $21.49 (97+ shares)
Yield at AC = 4.09%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 11/17/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): Since BHB will soon issue its third quarter report, I will simply include here some selected snapshots from the 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20.
BHB Trading Profits to Date: $4,187.54
G. Added to ISBC-Bought 5 at $7.21; 5 at $7.09; 5 at $6.9:
Quote: Investors Bancorp Inc. (ISBC)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Stock Information as of 10/23:
ISBC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investors Relations | Investors Bank
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Started ISBC-Bought 10 at $7.97; 4 at $7.7 (9/5/20 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/20 Tangible book value per share was $10.53 as of 6/30/30.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share
Average Cost Per Share: $7.48 (30 shares)
Yield at AC = 6.42%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/7/20
The third quarter earnings report will be released next week, probably on 10/28.
H. Started PBCT Fidelity Account-Multiple Buys with an average cost per share of $10.42:
 |
| Snapshot 10/22/20 Close |
Quote: People's United Financial Inc (PBCT)
"Founded in 1842, People's United Bank offers commercial and retail banking through a network of more than 400 retail locations in Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine."
The largest position is in my Schwab taxable account (90+ shares).
Stock Information as of 10/23:
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added 3 PBCT at $10.58; 5 at $10.41 - Schwab Account (9/5/20 Post)
Dividend: $.18 per share ($.72 annual)
Last raised from $.1775 effective for the 2020 first quarter
PBCT is a member of the dividend aristocrats, which requires at least 25 years of consecutive annual dividend increases. ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL)
Stock Information | Dividend History | People's United Bank
Last Ex Dividend : 7/31/20
Next Ex Dividend: 10/30/20
Dividend Yield at $10.42 AC = 6.91%
5 Year Chart:
This chart shows typical topping action in 2017-2018. Possible bottoming action starting in March 2020.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): People's United Financial Reports Third Quarter Net Income of $144.6 Million, or $0.34 per Common Share
E.P.S. of $.34 was 5 cents better than the consensus.
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $10.37
NIM: 2.97% (3% excluding the negative impact from PPP loans)
Charge off ratio = .15%
Coverage Ratio: 138.4%
NPL Ratio: .68%
Efficiency Ratio: 53.8%
Return on Tangible Equity: 13.1%
ROA Ratio: .94%
"assets under discretionary management totaled $8.9 billion"
"non-interest income totaled $101.1 million in 3Q20 compared to $89.6 million in 2Q20."
"provision for credit losses on loans of $27.1 million, decreased $53.7 million linked-quarter."
I discussed this earnings report in a 10/22/20 comment.
Other Recent News:
People's United Financial Announces Updated Loan Forbearance Data (9/15/20)("As of September 11, 2020, total deferrals were approximately $1.6 billion, compared to more than $7.1 billion at June 30, 2020.")
People's United Bank Agrees to Sell People's United Insurance Agency to AssuredPartners (9/22/20)("Under the terms of the Agreement, the purchase price is $120 million in cash, reflecting a 3.7x multiple of LTM revenue.")
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.A. Eliminated PBCT-Sold 101+ at $17.57 (5/22/19 Post); Item # 4 Sold 100 PBCT at $14.61 (9/21/13 Post)
PBCT Realized Gains to Date: $486.53
I. Started PBCT in Vanguard Taxable Account-Multiple Buys with an average cost per share of $10.56:
20 Shares
Yield at $10.56 = 6.82%
See Item 1.H. above.
J. Started KC-Bought 1 at $32.25; 1 at $30; 1 at $28.45 :
Quote: Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd. ADR (KC)
Closing Price 10/23: KC $31.15 $0.37 +1.20%
KC Analyst Estimates KC is in the heavy loss phase resulting from growing its operations.
Investment Classification: Lottery Ticket Basket
Average Cost Per Share: $30.23 (3 shares)
Kingsoft is a Chinese company that provides cloud services. My thinking on this one, which barely qualifies as a thought, is that Chinese companies will gravitate to Kingsoft and its competitors based in China for cloud services rather than U.S. or other foreign based companies.
Revenues are growing rapidly. SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/20 ("total revenues were RMB1,534.8 million (US$1217.2 million) in the second quarter of 2020, representing an increase of 64.1 % year-over-year.")
I bought shortly after a recent stock offering that included shares offered by insiders. The public offering price was at U.S.$31 per ADR. Prospectus
The IPO was at $17 last May. Prospectus
I have reinvigorated the Lottery Ticket basket since I will not be visiting a casino until I am confident that the pandemic is over.
I quit updating the basket as of 10/15/2015 Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy (net realized gains then at $14,012.42). It has been much of the same since then. There will be a high number of less than optimal selections that will need to be blown out of the basket and several huge percentage gainers. Total dollar exposure per stock is limited to $1K now, up from $300 earlier; and I am nowhere near the new limit on any of the ones currently owned.
K. Added to RIOCF-Bought 10 at $10.56:
Quotes:
USD Priced Shares: RIOCF (traded on the U.S. pink sheet exchange)
Symbols ending in the letter "F" denote the ordinary shares of a foreign company, not an ADR, that are priced in USDs and traded on the U.S. pink sheet exchange or the U.S. Grey Market.
CAD Priced Shares: RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust (Canada: Toronto)
Closing Price 10/23: RIOCF US$11.47 +$0.21 +1.83%
Investment Classification: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed Item # 1.J. Restarted RIOCF-Bought 10 at Average Cost of $10.94 (8/1/2020 Post)
Dividend: Monthly at C$.12 per unit
RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust Announces October 2020 Distribution - RioCan REIT
Canada will withhold 15%. The yield before this withholding will vary depending on the CAD/USD exchange rate. The after tax yield will depend on the investors marginal tax rate and the ability to recover the payment made to Canada as a foreign tax credit.
Assuming a constant .75 CAD/USD exchange rate, which will not happen but is currently close to the actual currency conversion, the annual payment of C$1.44 would convert into U.S. $1.08 and a 10.05% yield at a TC of $10.75 before taxes.
Average Cost Per share: $10.75 (20 shares/units)
Yield: The actual dividend yield will depend on the CAD/USD exchange for each monthly payment.
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20)
FFO per unit = C$.35, down from $C.48 in the 2019 second quarter. If that does not improve significantly soon, I view a dividend cut as likely.
RioCan Announces Second Quarter Results For 2020 - RioCan REIT
I am taking an extremely cautious approach.
L. Added to OKE-Bought 1 at $24.9:
Quote: ONEOK Inc (OKE)
Stock Information as of 10/23:
Investment Classification: Bond substitute; Deep Contrarian Value- Hated Stock
Website: ONEOK, Inc.
5 Year Chart:
Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Started OKE-Bought 5 at $27.77 (6/13/20 Post)
I also discussed in that post buying 2 OKE 3.375% SU bonds maturing on 1/1/2022 which I still own (Item # 2.C.). The total cost was at 97.01. FINRA Bond Detail Starting in late February when this bond was trading near 104, there was a sharp decline in March with the bottom occurring near 87.5 on 3/19/20, followed by a spike up to 104 on 6/18/20. My purchase was on 4/28. The March decline was fairly typical for Baa3-Baa1 rated bonds. The fear expressed in that kind of widespread decline has nothing to do with interest rate risk, since rates were falling, but imaginary fears run amok about credit risks.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.935 per share ($3.74 annually)
Several brokerages are suggesting that the company may cut its dividend soon.
Average cost per share this account: $27.37 (6+ shares)
Dividend Yield at $27.37 = 13.66%
Next Ex Dividend: 10/30/20
ONEOK Declares Quarterly Dividend
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): SEC Filed News Release
Broker Reports:
ONEOK raised to Buy at UBS on boost in Bakken gas volumes-Seeking Alpha (9/29/20) The UBS PT is $35. Most brokerage firms hate this stock and have been reducing their ratings and price targets throughout 2020. This is one of the few positive broker actions.
M. Added to AT & T-Bought 2 at $27.95; 1 at $27.78; 1 at $27.57; 1 at $27.13; 1 at $26.77 :
T | AT&T Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Sold 11 AT & T at $38.21- Highest Cost Shares (3/7/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $73.88)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4.A. Bought 5 T at $27.7 and 10 at $26.95-Used Commission Free Trades(1/16/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.52 per share ($2.08 annually)
Average Cost Per Share this account: $28.44
Last Ex Dividend: 10/8/20 (owned all as of)
Dividend Yield at AC = 7.31%
AT&T is a dividend aristocrat. Dividend Aristocrats
The Credit Suisse analyst argues that the dividend needs to be "reset".
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): This report was released after all purchases. The market initially responded favorably to this release: T $28.28 +$1.56 +5.84% (10/22/20) That reaction has already started to fade.
"The company expects 2020 free cash flow of $26 billion or higher with a full-year dividend payout ratio in the high 50s%. The company also continues to expect gross capital investment in the $20 billion range in 2020."
AT&T Reports Third-Quarter Results
Other Recent Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Sold 13 AT & T at $38.49 (10/30/19 Post); Item # 1.E. Sold 10 T at $37.77 (1/28/18 Post)
The last 100 share position was sold on 11/2/2010:
The price closed that day at $28.94. Item # 7 Sold 102+ AT&T at $28.96 (11/3/2010) The snapshot above also includes another earlier 2010 sell: Item # 5 Sold 100 AT & T at 28.69 (9/27/10 Post)
Most of the recent realized gains have been pursuant to a dividend harvest strategy where I hope to collect one or more dividend payments and then to exit the position at a profit.
I do not view AT & T to be a worthy long term investment unless the purchases are made during price collapses, selling higher cost lots on price pops, and ceasing dividend reinvestments at higher prices. The dividend amount taken in cash can then be used to buy shares in the open market during a price collapse
I ceased reinvesting the dividend when the likely reinvestment price was over $35 and have restarted reinvestment after the price decline below $30.
Analyst Craig Moffett explains his sell rating on AT&T
AT&T: Surprisingly Strong Quarter Is Misleading (NYSE:T) | Seeking Alpha (not yet behind SA's paywall)
AT&T lower again as analysts react to Q3 earnings (NYSE:T) | Seeking Alpha
AT&T Shows Its 7.7 % Dividend Is Still Safe – 24/7 Wall St.
My consider to sell price is currently at $35 or higher.
Broker Reports Available To Schwab Customers:
Credit Suisse (10/20/20): Neutral with a $31 PT
S & P (10/22/20): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $35
Argus (10/23/20): Buy with a $38 PT.
The Morningstar report has not yet been updated to reflect the most recent quarter.
N. Added to MET-Bought 1 at $35.52:
Quote: MetLife Inc.
Investment Category: Contrarian Value; Bond Substitute
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Restarted MET-Bought 5 at $37.3 (8/29/20 Post) I discussed the second quarter earnings report in that post. I also have snapshots in that post of prior round-trips and links to prior buy and sell trade discussions.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.46 per share ($1.84 annually), raised from $.44 effective for the 2020 second quarter.
MetLife, Inc. - Stock - Common Dividend History
Average Cost Per share this account: $37
Yield at AC = 4.97%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 11/2/20
MET Realized Gains to Date: $707.67
O. Added to FIDI-Bought 2 at $15.46:
Quote: FIDI | Fidelity International High Dividend ETF Overview
Sponsor's Website: FIDI | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity
Average cost per share: $16.21 (22 shares)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Started FIDI-Bought 10 at $16.56; 5 at $16.11; 5 at $15.91 (8/2/20 Post) I have nothing to add here.
P. Added to EXG-Bought 20 at $7.4:
Quote: Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund Overview
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 100 EXG at $7.42 (7/11/20 Post)
Dividend: Monthly at $.0616 per share ($.7392 annually)
Average Cost Per Share this account: $7.42 (123+ shares)
Dividend Yield at AC = 9.96%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/22/20 (owned all as of)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Data on Date of 9/28/20 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $8.38
Closing Market Price: $7.37
Discount: -12.05%
Sourced: EXG-CEF Connect
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3 Sold 331+ EXG at $9.77_(6/2/13 Post)(profit snapshot =$294.46)
Q. Started PLYM (Schwab Taxable)-Bought 10 at $12:
Quote: Plymouth Industrial REIT Inc.
Stock Information as of 10/23:
Company Website: Plymouth Industrial REIT - Boston
Portfolio - Plymouth Industrial REIT
This PYLM purchase and the one mentioned below were made shortly before the ex dividend date.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item #1.F. Started PLYM Fidelity Account-Bought 10 at $12.85; 5 at $12.1; 5 at $11.8 (8/1/2020 Post)
Dividend Yield at $12 = 6.67%
Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share
The company was paying out too much in common share dividends and cut the penny rate to $.20 from $.375 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/20/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20):
Brokerage Reports: I do not have access to any substantive analyst report.
On 9/29/20, Wedbush cut its price target to $15 from $20 but kept its outperform rating. According to a news blurb, one reason given for the PT cut was a recent stock offering. (stock sold to public at $12.85-August 2020 Prospectus)
On 9/23/20, Baird started at outperform with at $16 price target.
R. Started PLYM (Vanguard Taxable)-Bought 10 at $11.92:
Yield at $11.92 = 6.71%
See Item L. above.
S. Sold 5 BDGE at $20.05 (highest cost lot):
Profit Snapshot: $2.74 (10/22 sell only)
I sold on the ex dividend date.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
I discussed adds in my last post. Item # 1.K. Added to BDGE-Bought 2 at $17.45; 2 at $17.2; 2 at $17.03 and 1 at $16.8 (10/17/20 Post)
New Average Cost this Account: $17.96
Yield at AC = 5.35%
Selling the highest cost lot(s) when the price pops is part of small ball which is primarily a cautious, risk-control trading technique that focuses on beaten up dividend paying stocks priced well below the S & P 500 P/E multiple and a substantially higher dividend yields than that index. This particular risk control technique is tailored for today's commission free trades and my primary goals of capital preservation and income generation. It is also based on an awareness that I do not know the future.
BDGE Realized Gains to Date: $2,751.05 (snapshots in Regional Bank Basket Strategy post under BDGE)
2. Equity REIT Preferred Stocks:
A. Eliminated BPYUP-Sold 10 at $19:
Quote: Brookfield Property REIT Inc. 6.375% Pfd. Series A Overview
Profit Snapshot: +$46.29
Item # 1.L. Bought 10 BPYUP at $14.27 (8/20/20 Post)
Investment Categories: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks; Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy; Lottery Ticket.
I view this preferred stock as high risk. The REIT owns malls and has a lot of debt, all of which is senior to the preferred stock.
Sourced: Page 26 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20
I do not believe that I will buy again. Just too scary for the Old Geezer.
B. Partial Issuer Redemption of BRGPRA:
Quote: Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Inc. 8.25% Cumulative Preferred Series A
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks; part of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Ex Dividend: Quarterly on 9/24/20; dividends are cumulative; dividend stopper clause present
Optional Redemption Date: On or after 10/21/20
The issuer for this cumulative equity preferred stock is the apartment REIT Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Inc. (BRG)
The issuer redeemed approximately 25% of the outstanding shares at the $25 par value plus accrued and unpaid dividends. Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Announces Partial Redemption of 8.250% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. (4/4/20 Post)
I own shares in 3 accounts accounts:
Fidelity: 11 shares redeemed-29 Shares remaining
Profit Snapshot: $26.7 (only 10/21/20)
Remaining Shares: 29 Shares/Average Cost $17.79
 |
| Snapshot as of 10/21/20 Close |
Yield at $17.79 = 11.59% ($25 par value x. .0825% coupon =$2.0625 annually per share $17.79 = 11.59%)
Schwab: 13 Shares redeemed/37 remaining
Profit Snapshot = $38.39
Remaining Shares 37 at an average cost per share of $22.05
Yield at $22.05 = 9.35%
Vanguard: 2 Shares redeemed/ 7 remaining
Profit Snapshot (2 shares) = +$23
 |
| Cost Per Share = $13.5 |
Remaining Shares: Average Cost per share of $14.12
 |
| Snapshot as of 10/21/20 Close |
Yield at $14.12 = 14.06%
Last BRGPRA Sell Discussions: Item # 3 Sold Highest Cost BRGPRA lot at $25.25 (8/29/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $30.55)
BRG Realized Gains To Date: $1,151.81
Last BRG Buy Discussion: Item # 2.I Restarted BRG (5/30/20 Post)(average cost = $4.96; yield at 13.1%)
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
I added 3 stocks in the regional bank basket tables that were omitted in the first version: SONA, WTBA, and HOPE. I may find more that I currently own.
ReplyDeleteAs shown in the P/E ratios and dividend yields reflected in the table, an emphasis is placed on dividend yields and trailing P/E ratios: valuations + income. Hopefully, the worst quarters impacted by the pandemic and recession are behind these banks but that remains to be seen.
About 1/2 of the banks included in the tables have not yet reported third quarter results.
Some of the mini cap and small cap banks that have reported third quarter results have managed to increase their E.P.S. Y-O-Y.
Southern National Bancorp of Virginia Inc. (SONA) reported earnings earlier today. The consensus E.P.S. estimate was for $.24 per share.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/sona/analystestimates?mod=mw_quote_tab
SONA "announced net income of $9.6 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2020, compared to $8.9 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2019. Earnings per share for the three months ended September 30, 2020 were $0.40 basic and $0.39 diluted compared to $0.37 basic and $0.36 diluted for the three months ended September 30, 2019."
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1325670/000156459020047517/d51790dex991.htm
"Loans on deferral declined significantly. Management estimates that deferrals at the end of October, 2020 (end of our initial round of six month deferrals) to be approximately $115 million, or 4.2% of loans, compared to $707.8 million at the end of the second quarter and $429.7 million at the end of the third quarter."
"Tangible book value per share of $11.53 at September 30, 2020 has increased 6.68% since a year ago despite significant build in loan loss reserves and steady dividends."
"Another sizable contribution from our mortgage investment of $3.8 million for the quarter. . .Gains on our investment in Southern Trust Mortgage ("STM") increased to $3.8 million compared to $599 thousand in the same quarter in 2019, driven by higher margins on closed loans and materially higher volumes from refinance activity as well as production . . ."
Quote: $10.00-0.01 (-0.10%)
As of 10:14AM EDT.
++
I mention in this post that I would be selling 1 regional bank this morning. I eliminated UMPQ, just 5 shares remaining, at $13.3.
In the tables of my regional bank holdings, I failed to include Mackinac Financial Corporation (MFNC).
I took out of the regional bank basket Bank of New York (BK), which I still own, since it is more of an investment services and investment company than a regional bank. Just about every investment is categorized here at HQ.
I don't have many new thoughts. The market is down, but there's no specific reason.
DeleteStimulus is in the same maybe status it's been for weeks. Maybe the market thinks it's not coming. Or it finally thinks Biden and his "raising" taxes is coming.
This much down, I should be buying, but not much is obvious. Bought 5 PBCT for all of $50. And order in for 5 PFE for $187.
My PBCT at 11.11 is higher than your average cost. I'll see where my small ball buying winds up. At $50 a buy it's simply not enough... if it goes much lower I'll increase to a daring at least $100... (I bought at 11.15 the other day, so today's decline comes back near where I bought.)
Order in for 1 LMT 263.12. Below current price, at what it was 20 mins ago. That's kind of low for LMT. I'd last bought near 400 and sold at 414. (2 shares)
DeleteLand: Publicly traded corporations will see their taxes go up a few percent under Biden and Democrat controlled House and Senate. I doubt that will occur during 2021 due to the pandemic.
DeleteThe reaction today is probably related mostly to the surge in coronavirus infections in the U.S. and Europe. It did not help sentiment when Mark Meadows said that the pandemic can not be controlled which is part of the cavalier attitude that most Trumpsters have had from the start and explains why infection rates are now soaring.
Psychologically, I can not do more than the small ball buys now given my capital preservation objectives and risk/reward assessments regarding valuations of major indexes.
On a day like today, I will place a number of small ball bids below current bid prices. I will then do the same during the last 30 minutes if the loses accelerate. This looks like a maximum $1K add day.
CBOE Volatility Index
31.34 3.79 13.76%
Last Updated: Oct 26, 2020 at 10:47 a.m. CDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix
When I do a sector basket, I am not concerned so much about the performance of a single stock or the dollar amount invested in each position. The goal is to earn a total return for the basket that exceeds the dividend payments by a few percent. I mostly liquidated the regional bank basket in 2018, taking the size down to around $5K. I started to build it back up this year, with most purchases starting in March. The stock price declines improved the risk/reward balance for capital appreciation and the dividend yields.
In my overall portfolio, the regional bank basket is not material, though its size has been growing steadily through a series of small purchases.
Cash held in sweep accounts is the largest allocation currently. My inclination is to wait for another crash before becoming serious about draining the cash allocation.
Gild's at $60. JPM at $101. Under 100 was considered a steal a few months ago. Maybe I'll buy some.
DeleteGILD should do better than it does. But that's a good price for trading from.
Futures are neutral so I may have missed buying this dip! Oh well.
Violatily ended up more 17.82 for at $32.46. So traders don't think this is the end.
So basket strategy allows for easier selling ones that don't do as well but counting it as part of a basket. That risk/reward is what's appealing here. Especially with a div to wait on.
I can't tell if the increase in cases will trigger the market. It's sloughed it off before. Meadow's comment didn't help. Though one can see it's accurate. It's like I post on twitter, Trump starts lots of negotiations with "I'll give you want you want, now what?" He gave up on the virus before it even got started.
I need to get in and have some horizon to wait it out. Hopefully there'll be good entry points and I won't miss them.
I forgot all about the 60 mins interviews yesterday. I haven't found them to watch yet.
DeleteLand: I was able to watch about 5 seconds of Donald's interview before becoming depressed and turning him out. I am still able to read his false statements in fact check articles.
DeleteI subscribe on YouTube to the 60 minutes channel.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsN32BtMd0IoByjJRNF12cw
The interview can be found here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdAh2HJ98WE
Thanks! I'll watch the Biden one. And maybe the Stahl comments about the Trump one.
DeleteIt's going to be a long 10 days.
Friends in rural NY saying early voting opened and lines are hours long, at least 3 hours.
Land: At some point, GILD may be a trade, but sentiment is still negative IMO. The WHO finding that remdesivir had no effect on seriously ill patients made a bad chart worse.
Deletehttps://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/massive-who-remdesivir-study-suggests-no-covid-19-benefit-doctors-n1243730
I suspect that this drug shortens the time to recovery when given early, and the FDA has approved it now.
The banks that are shining the most now are the smaller ones where PPP and other federal assistance helped their small business customers survive and their mortgage business took off when the decline in interest rates. Mortgage banking for NRIM is a much larger percentage of its business than for JPM. It is still possible to buy the smaller banks with 4% or higher yields, Y-O-Y earnings growth, P/E ratios less than 12 on a trailing 12 month GAAP basis, and selling near or below tangible book value per share.
I suspect that the combination of the flu season and a resurgence in COVID infections will stress hospitals and caregivers, particularly in rural areas and places where the population even now refuses to socially distance or to wear masks exercising their freedom to infect and kill others. So places like South and North Dakota, Utah, and Idaho will have to start sending their patients out-of-state soon.
I doubt that there will be widespread lockdowns again, which does not work since millions will ignore simple precautions for a virus that spreads so easily.
I forgot about that WHO comment on remdesivir. That's what's doing it. GILD never does well.... I also suspect it helps and the no-effect was an outlier finding. But what matters is what the market thinks.
DeleteSo that's why JPM is still down and the regionals are showing some light kicking of life.
If I were to dig into 4-5 regionals fundamentals to decide whether to buy, which would be in your top list to research? You post and they all look good. Definitely will get some KRE too, but decided to wait for more down today.
Along with flu and covid, problems that were put off are starting to not longer be able to.
Trump won't allow a lockdown before the election, to the extent he can control it. It's possible he'll do one after to hurt the market, economy, and Biden if there's a Biden win. I hadn't thought of that.
Land: I was busy binge watching the Queen's Gambit on Netflix last night so I did not see your question until this morning. I published your comments without reading them last night.
DeleteI do not know which regional bank stock will outperform going forward.
I have been frequently surprised about the ones that do the best and find it difficult sometimes to rationally explain why others underperform based on their actual results.
I use a basket approach in this sector for that reason and as a risk dispersal technique.
I have more confidence in my selection criteria spread over 50 stocks than I do about which individual ones will outperform. I have had a few losers but the number is far less than in other basket sector strategies.
I am applying the same selection criteria across the board, allowing for some variations in what I am willing to accept. Few banks, if any, will check all of the boxes.
PBCT may be the one in my current 56 stock regional bank basket that combines most of the criteria, including valuation, dividend yield at current price, dividend history (long history of raises including during the Near Depression), a failure to participate so far in the regional bank rally, and prudent management. Most brokerages, however, are cool to the name.
BHB has generated the most $ realized gains.
BDGE has not raised its dividend in awhile but I like the acquisition of Dime Community bank. BDGE is reporting today as I recall and has not participated yet in the regional bank rally, excluding the 2 short term dips to $16+ back up to $20+.
WASH is another one that has proven resilient in tough times. The dividend was not cut in the Near Depression period.
I view this sector as a total return vehicle where dividend yields can make a significant contribution to that return.
NBT Bancorp (NBTB)
ReplyDelete"Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2020 was $35.1 million, or $0.80 per diluted common share", up from $.73 in the 2019 third quarter.
Consensus estimate at $.6.
I have noted that loan losses for small banks have been mitigated by their customers receiving federal assistance. This bank confirmed that was the case: "Net charge-offs to average loans were very low due to COVID-19 pandemic relief programs."
Charge Off Ratio: .12%
NPA Ratio: .39% excl. PPP
NPL Ratio: .55% excl. PPP
Coverage Ratio: 297.53%
NIM: 3.17%
Total risk-based capital ratio 15.43%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $20.02, up from $18.02 as of 9/30/19
"As of October 19, 2020, 2.0% of loans (loans outstanding as of 9/30/2020; excluding PPP balances) are in payment deferral programs which is down from the second quarter 2020 peak of 14.9%."
Northrim BanCorp (NRIM) Reports Earnings of $11.9 Million, or $1.84 Per Diluted Share, in 3Q20 compared to $7.5 Million, or $1.11 Per Diluted Share in 3Q19
ReplyDeletehttps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/26/2114638/0/en/Northrim-BanCorp-Reports-Earnings-of-11-9-Million-or-1-84-Per-Diluted-Share-in-3Q20-compared-to-7-5-Million-or-1-11-Per-Diluted-Share-in-3Q19.html
The estimate was for $.91 per share, made by only 1 analyst.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nrim/analystestimates?mod=mw_quote_tab
Mortgage banking contributed $1.08 per share of E.P.S.
The bank also had an item of +720K in interest rate swap income with none in the 2019 third quarter.
Tangible book value per share $31.62, up from $28.74 as of 9/30/20.
A couple of developments are creating a very slight negative vibe today for the Stock Jocks occurring in the context of rising coronavirus infection and hospitalizations rates.
ReplyDeleteThe Eli Lilly antibody trial for Covid 19 failed in its trial, notwithstanding Lilly's effort to put a positive spin on it.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/eli-lilly-ceo-dave-ricks-still-confident-in-covid-antibody-treatment-.html
A study was released that antibodies from an infection decline fairly rapidly, particularly among older folks, though the results are still preliminary and involve about a 3 month study period.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/herd-immunity-coronavirus-antibodies-fall-after-infection-study-says.html
I am going to make a guess now. Even if the vaccine is effective and safe for a particular person, the time period for providing protection may be less than a year. Herd immunity is going to be difficult to achieve and maintain for long enough to eradicate the virus. The primary reasons for that opinion are (1) widespread resistance to taking simple precautions (2) the length of time that antibodies provide immunity; (3) the likelihood that any approved vaccine will be effective on anywhere near 100% who receive it; (4) widespread unwillingness to take the vaccine that may approach 1/3rd of the U.S. population and (5) a long period lasting several months (perhaps up to 6) to vaccinate those willing to receive it in the context of (2) above.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-update-us-case-tally-tops-87-million-and-marks-seven-day-record-with-more-than-20-states-seeing-most-new-cases-since-start-of-the-outbreak-2020-10-27?mod=mw_latestnews
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
ReplyDelete$40.55 -$1.19 -2.84%
Last Updated: Oct 27, 2020 at 12:53 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
I would attribute the weakness today to a number of factors: (1) renewed concerns about the pandemic coupled with (2) no stimulus bill in the context of (3) slighting declining interest rates.
The recent slight upticks and downticks in interest rates will have no meaningful impact on NIM.
+++
Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc (EBMT)
$19.74 -$0.02 -0.10%
Last Updated: 10/27,20 12:28 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ebmt
The consensus third quarter E.P.S. estimate was $.73.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ebmt/analystestimates?mod=mw_quote_tab
The bank reported $.94 this morning:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1478454/000117184320007260/exh_991.htm
"Tangible book value increased to $18.36 per share, at September 30, 2020, compared to $15.89 per share a year earlier and $17.32 per share three months earlier."
"Annualized return on average assets was 2.05%"
"Annualized return on average equity was 17.77%."
Both the ROA and ROE numbers are superior, but reflect excellent mortgage banking profits that are erratic.
"The net gain on sales of mortgage loans totaled $11.1 million in the third quarter of 2020, compared to $7.9 million in the preceding quarter and $5.5 million in the third quarter a year ago. Year-to-date, noninterest income grew 109.9% to $37.0 million, compared to $17.6 million in the first nine months of 2019."
NIM: 3.83%
Net loan charge-offs totaled $55,000 in the third quarter
Got off my zoom, put in order for KRE and now have to get to postoffice with my GOTV postcards. But I am now the proud owner of 2 KRE at 40.30.
ReplyDeleteNow we can all watch it sink! (it's now down to 40.10...)
Land: Angst over Covid brought back the work-at-home, stay-at-home trade today, which does not include the banks. There was also a flight to quality in bonds. Growth outperformed value.
DeleteFirst Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund
$198.86 +$2.92 +1.49%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fdn
I start to fell sorry for IBM:
International Business Machines Corp.
$110.56 -$1.66 -1.48%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ibm
IBM's market cap is down to about $100B compared to MSFT at $1.59T.
KRE is a reasonable alternative to selecting individual regional bank stocks. My basket will have a 1%+ higher yield and a lower P/E, but KRE's 3.51% yield calculated by Marketwatch is respectable in today's environment.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre?mod=mw_quote_recentlyviewed
The yield on the S & P 500 was at 1.73% as of 10/23.
Poor IBM. It's a management problem. Always was. They have great management methods for managing their people. Ahead of the curve by 40 years on equality, empowerment, encouraging creative smarts.
DeleteBut their business management was a disaster. We underlings could never figure out why they weren't deciding what they were. We could have told them it wasn't going to work out, and what would have worked.
Even something simple. IBM had the best spellchecker. It makes google search look backwards. That was in the 1980s. Never once was it part of their external tool offerings. It was one of the sad parts about leaving IBM (since guessing what I mean by a spellchecker is incredibly time savings.) I took a copy with me (legally so) on a floppy disk. I still miss it nearly every day. I could go on for days about decisions that didn't take advantage of their personnel and strengths.
The lack of stimulus package doesn't seem to be part of this selloff. It's too tepid to claim it's the package. So it must be the bad covid news.
That rotation got my attention. Maybe I will buy some nosebleed high tech. It's certainly popular. CRM, salesforce. Sure it's tech. But why is more covid good for CRM. It's not bad for it, but it doesn't add anything either.
KRE - that is a disadvantage, that it's a few % less than others. But it won't disappear into bankruptcy.
I do wonder why PCBT is less popular. But when the sector recovers it won't matter. It seems less likely to go belly up.
ONEOK Inc. (OKE)
ReplyDeleteAFTER HOURS $30.50 +$1.18 +4.02%
After Hours Volume: 151.46K
Last Updated: Oct 27, 2020 6:06 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/oke
I discussed this pipeline company in this post.
The slight pop in after hours is linked to a better than expected third quarter report:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3626883-oneok-on-rise-nat-gas-volumes-top-pre-virus-levels-across-operations
News Release:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oneok-announces-14-year-over-year-increase-in-third-quarter-2020-operating-income-301160955.html
Distributable cash flow: 1.3 x the dividend
Lindsey Graham has been complaining that only liberals have been giving campaign contributions to his democrat opponent Jaime Harrison. The sums involved in that S.C. senate race are ridiculous for both candidates:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2020&id=SCS2
There are a lot of people, including myself, who are donating to Harrison because Graham is a slithering hypocrite who has become a Trump sycophant and enabler after correctly identifying Donald's essence before he became President.
The Lincoln Project put together some of Graham's lines about Trump in this ad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7-QP0LMAKI
+++
Bridge Bancorp, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2020 Results With Diluted Earnings Per Common Share of $0.66 (as Reported) and $0.77 (as Adjusted)
http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/27/2115578/0/en/Bridge-Bancorp-Inc-Reports-Third-Quarter-2020-Results-With-Diluted-Earnings-Per-Common-Share-of-0-66-as-Reported-and-0-77-as-Adjusted.html
The non-GAAP number of $.77 per share excludes merger expenses. The non-GAAP consensus estimate was for $.72.
Non-performing assets/total assets 0.11%
Non-performing loans/total loans 0.15%
Allowance/non-performing loans 615.43%
Tangible book value per share $20.40
Total remaining loan payment deferrals at October 25, 2020 were $44 million, or 1.0%, of total loans held for investment.
++++
Bar Harbor had a decent third quarter report.
GAAP E.P.S. was reported at $.56 up from $.32 in the year ago quarter. The non-GAAP E.P.S. was at $.61 vs. $.47 in the 2019 third quarter. There are no analyst estimates.
"Non-interest income in the third quarter 2020 was $10.1 million compared to $7.6 million in the same quarter in 2019. The increase is primarily due to a $2.2 million increase in mortgage banking income associated with secondary market sales of $86.2 million compared to $20.7 million in the same quarter of 2019. Customer service fees increased 13% and trust and investment management fees increased 17% as the result of expanded operations into Central Maine partially offset by lower activity stemming from COVID-19."
"Net unearned fees on PPP loans at the end of the third quarter was $3.8 million and accretion will accelerate as the loans are reimbursed by the Small Business Administration."
"Tangible book value per share (non-GAAP measure) was $18.56 at the end of the third quarter 2020 compared to $18.18 at the second quarter 2020; an annualized growth rate of 8%."
Charge off ratio: .06%
"As of September 30, 2020 total outstanding deferrals, which primarily consist of interest only forbearance, were $78.7 million or 3% of total loans, with consumer mortgages representing $4.6 million of the total or less than half a percent of the consumer portfolio."
$54millon for Harrison. That's a whole lot of not liking Graham. And far left (now called liberals, even though in the '70s someone like me would be called a liberal?)...aren't noticeably rich.
DeleteI had an epiphany. Maybe McCain wasn't particularly good at judging character. Lindsey. Sara Palin.
I hadn't seen that ad yet!
Land: Through 10/14/20, Jaime Harrison has raised $107,568,737.
DeleteHe has spent $104,092,829 :
https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2020&id=SCS2
I knew Harrison collected a lot. But not that he spent most of it.
DeleteSo many places our campaigning funds could go into to improve our economy more directly.
Landmark Bancorp, Inc. (LARK) Announces Record Earnings for the Third Quarter of 2020; Declares Cash Dividend of $0.20 per Share and 5% Stock Dividend for Landmark Stockholders
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141688/000149315220019999/ex99-1.htm
LARK "a bank holding company serving 24 communities across Kansas, reported net earnings of $5.4 million ($1.20 per diluted share) for the quarter ended September 30, 2020, compared to $2.6 million ($0.57 per diluted share) for the third quarter of 2019."
ROA: 1.89%
ROE: 18.06%%
Both of those ratios are excellent.
"Total non-interest income was $8.2 million in the third quarter of 2020, compared to $4.6 million in the same period of 2019. The increase in non-interest income was primarily due to a $2.9 million increase in gains on sales of loans. Gains on sales of loans increased as the origination of one-to-four family residential real estate loans increased due to the decline in mortgage interest rates that have fueled a robust housing market and refinancing activity. Also contributing to the increase in non-interest income was $678,000 of gains on sales of investment securities as $16.7 million of mortgage-backed investment securities were sold during the third quarter of 2020."
"As of September 30, 2020, Landmark had 33 loan modifications on outstanding loan balances of $22.9 million in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic, which was a decline from 135 loan modifications on outstanding loans balances of $54.7 million at June 30, 2020. These modifications consisted of payment deferrals that were applied to either the full loan payment or just the principal component. Additionally, as of September 30, 2020, only 3 borrowers with aggregate loans outstanding of $6.8 million had been granted a second deferral"
You list ROA and ROE. Do you use them much in assessing a stock?
DeleteI looked up once and learned what's considered normal for them. But beyond that, have no sense of what's important in using them.
Land: I do use both ROE and ROA in evaluating regional bank stocks.
DeleteWhen there is a significant amount of intangible assets on the balance sheet, I prefer using return on tangible assets and equity which I abbreviate to ROTA and ROTE.
I want to see higher than average ROA and ROE numbers.
Since 2013 and under more normal economic conditions than now, the average ROE would be mostly in the 9% to 12% range. The average spiraled down to 3.21%:
See Chart at
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USROE
A bank reported 15% or higher ROE during the last quarter would be demonstrating excellent outperformance under the current circumstances but that kind of number would be near average during the 1993-2004 period.
ROA chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USROA
So I look at the numbers singularly and in comparison to other banks.
See generally for ROE:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2020/05/29/14-return-on-equity-champions-with-warren-buffett-fundamentals/#503f77615587
"Flushing Financial EPS beats by $0.22, beats on revenue"
ReplyDeletehttps://seekingalpha.com/news/3626919-flushing-financial-eps-beats-0_22-beats-on-revenue
Press Release:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/27/2115563/0/en/Flushing-Financial-Corporation-Reports-3Q20-GAAP-Earnings-of-0-50-and-Record-Core-Earnings-Up-56-Driven-by-Record-Net-Interest-Income.html
E.P.S. of $.5, up from $.37 in the 2019 third quarter
Record Core diluted EPS of $0.56 compared to $0.36 in 2Q20 and $0.48 in 3Q19
Non-performing loans to gross loans 0.42%
Non-performing assets to total assets 0.35%
Allowance for loan losses to non-performing loans 154.66%
Net charge-offs were $0.8 million
Tangible book value per common share $20.22
The efficiency ratio was 55.4%
Quote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ffic
Almost all of the small regional banks that I own are handily beating the consensus EPS estimates and reporting Y-O-Y E.P.S. increases.
ReplyDeleteThe reasons are uniform. Mortgage banking, an important profit center for these banks, has been unusually profitable, the federal government pandemic assistance programs were successful in helping their individual and small business customers avoid defaults and return to normal payment schedules, and PPP fee income had a disproportionate favorable impact compared to larger banks, some of which about broke even.
I will mention only one more report:
"Trustmark EPS beats by $0.34, beats on revenue"
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3626830-trustmark-eps-beats-0_34-beats-on-revenue
SEC Filed Press Release:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/36146/000156459020048015/trmk-ex991_6.htm
E.P.S. $.86 up from $.64 in the 2019 third quarter
I have noticed they're all doing well. That last package mattered.
DeleteThere isn't a new package. Though if it's a triple win, there will be a very big one.
"Why billionaire investor Ray Dalio hates cash and bonds, and says the election won’t change his view on the economy"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-ray-dalio-hates-cash-and-bonds-and-says-the-election-wont-change-his-view-on-the-economy-11603881966?mod=home-page
Dalio seems to have run dry on what to do. His primary recommendation is to diversify.
For new investments, I am not even considering the purchase of $1K par value bonds, CDs or treasuries.
I still have a nice income stream from bonds, relatively speaking compared to what can be secured now. My average tax free current yield on Tennessee municipal bonds is slightly more than 3% with the total cost being below par value by about $4K.
My cash assets held in taxable brokerage accounts (5) are somewhere over 50% of total assets.
I checked this the Vanguard and Fidelity accounts which were at 66% and 44% in cash respectively.
When I am skeptical of risk asset valuations, as I am now, I don't mind keeping large cash stashes even when the yield is .01%. I will simply wait for a better risk/reward balance than now.
Today is shaping up to be a down day for stocks.
E-Mini S&P 500 3,326.00 -57.00 (-1.68%)
As of 8:37AM EDT.
This kind of action will take down even sectors that are reasonably valued including some of the stocks that I have recently bought.
The recent S & P 500 chart shows what appears to be a double top in the 3540-3580 range (9/2 and 10/12)
There is a spike in the CBOE Volatility Index so far today:
37.16+4.70 (+14.48%)
As of 8:37AM EDT. Market open.
I would not be surprised to see a number over 40 today.
The VIX is clearly in an Unstable Vix Pattern as defined in my Vix Asset Allocation model. The recent move up after challenging 20 is consistent with another spike similar to what started to happen in late February 2020:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history?p=%5EVIX
Barron's published an article today where a technician opined that the S & P 500 had two support levels. The first one was at 3,350 and the index blew through that one. The other one is at 3,200. “The S&P absolutely must in no uncertain terms hold ‘3,200’ to avoid generating a Double Top sell signal which would force me to rethink everything,” writes Evercore ISI’s Rich Ross.
ReplyDeleteS&P 500 Index 3,294.28 -96.40 -2.84%
Last Updated: Oct 28, 2020 at 2:00 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx?mod=home-page
If SPX goes below the turning point of the last dip during Trump's covid fiasco, that will be a difference. I'll have to look for that first support it blew threw. I don't know if that 2nd one would be a double top, or just a deeper dip before the buy the dips stepped back in as soon as some vaccine progress is announced. Trump would send out a jawboner...
DeleteA factor I don't hear but am sure of is that most Trump supporters, and plenty of investors are that, are still sure he'll win. (Not just saying it.) If that idea breaks, I'm not sure if Biden supporters will buy in, but Trump supporters will expect less from the market.
I bought a smattering today. I missed the low prices at the close. Oh well. I didn't set up those low orders for later in the day, but I can see why that's a good move.
Finally bought $470 VT Vang Total Index for my niece. She has $3000, and I've needed to scale her in. She has a long horizon, so this should be fine.
I'll have to add up my buys. Quick adding and it's more than I intended. Probably around $4-5000. Some at good prices, but some in VT, VYM, in regular and IRA, and even 3 shares of QQQ at 272.50. Those aren't great prices, but I don't want this dip to end and I hadn't bought anything. The QQQ is because this was a pullback in tech. I couldn't buy anything individual. The valuations are too jaw dropping to trust any one of them to continue to outperform.
3 JPM started.
DeleteLAND: I would put the next S & P 500 support line around 3235(9/23) and about where the index started to break out to new all time highs around 7/29/20.
DeleteI barely got off the ground today with about $400 spent, spread across several dividend paying, and out-of-favor stocks.
A typical buy was 1 share of Prudential (PRU) at $61.3.
At that pace, I am basically redeploying income received from dividend and interest payments.
+++
The Trumpsters expect Donald to win and will believe the election was stolen from the Chosen One if he loses.
Jeffrey Gundlach, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016, believes that he will win reelection with the republicans maintaining control over the Senate.
I am no longer worried about the pandemic since Donald has proclaimed that it will go away soon and his son Barron only had the sniffles, blew his nose once and was better, so why be concerned?
I am recommending that Donald issue an executive order banning the spread of the virus and making it a hanging offense for anyone in the media to report any new infections, hospitalizations or deaths since all of that is Fake News in TrumpWorld anyway.
"France and Germany announce partial lockdowns"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/europe/europe-new-lockdowns-announced-intl/index.html
+++
CBOE Volatility Index 40.28+6.93 (+20.78%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX?p=^VIX&.tsrc=fin-srch
I have been buying into buying spikes but but this spike is occurring with the major index still near record levels and with elevated P/E ratios. So I am more inclined to wait and see.
I received some fills on limit orders placed well below the then existing bid levels near the close that doubled my dollar amount to about $800.
Delete++
"The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son EPS beats by $0.10, beats on revenue"
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3627790-bank-of-n-t-butterfield-and-amp-son-eps-beats-0_10-beats-on-revenue
+++
"Horizon Bancorp EPS beats by $0.10, beats on revenue"
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3627773-horizon-bancorp-eps-beats-0_10-beats-on-revenue
spx 3271 close, is 1.1% down more.
Delete(the VIX at 40) ""spike is occurring with the major index still near record levels and with elevated P/E ratios.""
Good point. I thought Tues's VIX climb was low for how much the market sold Tuesday. But a 40 VIX while still near pre-covid is contradictory. Compared to 2008, the VIX hasn't come off it's elevated state yet same as in 2008.
Bought $3810 in regular account. Bought $700-800 per position. Or $350 per some. That's less than what I use for a 1/4 position. $1750 in IRA.
May I get to buy more lower! Plenty of funds to available.
Soon there'll be PFE and the other vaccine company's results. Though those two EU lockdowns aren't good news.
I don't know why PFE sunk so much today.
F afterhours beat hugely! Up only 4.5%.
Can't take Gundlach seriously:
Delete“Markets don’t like certainty, and with Trump, I think you have more certainty,” said Gundlach. “With Biden, you have peak uncertainty because there’s been very little information given to the public.”
With Kamala,"“We have to discount the probability of outright socialist policies with outrageous amount of deficit spending,” said Gundlach.
Apparently outrageous deficit spending is invisible if Trump does it.
But he does show how much Trump supporters are very comfortable with probabilities of him winning. If he doesn't it goes with my prior idea of a sell off if Biden wins.
It's odd that he says this (v) if he doesn't notice Trump's deficit spending and instability:
"" He also clarified his personal political beliefs for the audience:
"I don't have a Republican voice, I actually don't like the Republicans, and I don't like the Democrats," said Gundlach. "I used to be a Democrat, and I've voted for Republicans, but I simply don't like the influence peddling that both parties do. They've really turned into the same party in terms of their sources of money.""
That 1.1% down was not to happen today. Though today's move isn't a surprised.
DeleteLast I heard Tucker Carlson has completely damaging info on Hunter's emails. However do to DeJoy's excellence at following orders, the only copy in this age of challenging duplication, it disappeared in the mail.
I did nothing today with my stocks. Pondered selling the QQQ for 1.5-2% but it's so very popular. Have to see how high it can go.
Land: So far, investors are reacting negatively to Apple's 3rd quarter report. AAPL lifted the S & P 500 today with a $4.12 gain in regular trading, but is down currently $4.86 in after hours trading. That could knock the market some tomorrow if it carries through.
Deletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/AAPL?mod=MW_story_quote
Google may offset any negative carry through action from Apple:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GOOGL?mod=MW_story_quote
I do something everyday but in substance I am doing nothing. I did not total up what I spent but my guess would be $700 using a shotgun scatter shot approach in stocks and CEFs that were down.
Glad I stuck with QQQ and didn't guess.
DeleteAll 3 new shares... not exactly a fortune.
You've building in price diversity and spotting more down days. It takes a certain style and disciple.
If it'd rebought Square, I'd have $10,000 gain for each $1000. I will keep my eyes open for more opportunities like that. (Could have would have - that could have been a bad buy too.)
Fidus Investment Corp. (FDUS)-an externally managed BDC
ReplyDelete$10.00 -$0.12 -1.19%
YIELD 12.00%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fdus
"Fidus Investment EPS beats by $0.06, beats on revenue"
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3628593-fidus-investment-eps-beats-0_06-beats-on-revenue
Press Release:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/29/2117350/0/en/Fidus-Investment-Corporation-Announces-Third-Quarter-2020-Financial-Results.html
"Net asset value (NAV) of $389.6 million, or $15.94 per share, as of September 30, 2020"
"Estimated spillover income (or taxable income in excess of distributions) as of September 30, 2020 of $25.9 million, or $1.06 per share"
FDUS is not earning the current dividend with NII:
"Net investment income of $6.9 million, or $0.28 per share"
"On October 26, 2020, our board of directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share payable on December 18, 2020 to stockholders of record as of December 4, 2020. In addition, our Board of Directors declared a supplemental dividend of $0.04 per share payable December 18, 2020 to stockholders of record as of December 4, 2020."
The company does provide an adjusted NII number which was $.4 per share. I tend to ignore it. The adjustment adds back to NII "any capital gains incentive fee expense or (reversal) attributable to realized and unrealized gains and losses" Those fees may end up being paid. The BDC does have enough spillover income to cover the small deficit using the NII of $.28. The 4 cent supplemental dividend for the 4th quarter would be coming out of the $1.04 in spillover income.
"Financial Institutions EPS beats by $0.26, beats on revenue"
ReplyDeletehttps://seekingalpha.com/news/3628754-financial-institutions-eps-beats-0_26-beats-on-revenue
Quote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fisi
+++
"Piedmont Office FFO beats by $0.01, misses on revenue"
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3628734-piedmont-office-ffo-beats-0_01-misses-on-revenue
Press Release:
FFO of "$0.48 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2020 as compared to $0.45 for the quarter ended September 30, 2019"
"Collected approximately 99% of billed tenant receivables for the third quarter"
"Executed leases for the quarter reflected cash rent roll ups of 6.5% and accrual rent increases of 9.1%:
I started a position in my Fidelity account today, buying 10 at $11.67, more than 50% below its 52 week high. Office REITs have been hammered due to the pandemic.
Piedmont Office Realty Trust Inc. Cl A
AFTER HOURS $12.99 +%1.37 +11.79%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pdm
That was part of doing nothing today. Other buys in that taxable account included 4 shares of REYN with 2 bought at $28.3; 8 shares of the CEF GLQ at $10.95; 1 share of TRP at $39.59; 1 share of CSCO at $35.63; 5 shares of UNM at $16.2; and 1 share of ENB at $27.1.
UNM had a wild day after declining a lot yesterday in response to its earnings report:
Unum Group
$17.04 +$0.76 +4.64%
DAY RANGE $15.93 - $17.11
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/unm
+++
"Mackinac Financial EPS beats by $0.09, beats on revenue"
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3628789-mackinac-financial-eps-beats-0_09-beats-on-revenue
+++
"Columbia Property Trust FFO beats by $0.05, beats on revenue"
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3628701-columbia-property-trust-ffo-beats-0_05-beats-on-revenue
Press Release:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201029006211/en/
Several of the stocks that led the market up during the regular session gave up all or some of their gains in after hours trading. That includes Apple, Facebook and Amazon.
ReplyDeleteAMZN
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/amzn
FB
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fb
APPL
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aapl
E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index Continuous Contract
$11,210.00 -132.75 -1.17%
Last Updated: Oct 29, 2020 at 9:19 p.m. CDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/nasdaq%20100%20futures
Some of the negative vibe on social media stocks may be related to the negative reaction after hours to Twitter's Report:
AFTER HOURS $43.24 -$9.19 -17.53%
After Hours Volume: 9.25M
+++
This is a link to another article discussing the S & P 500 3200 as major support.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bears-have-ripped-control-away-from-the-bulls-and-if-the-sp-500-falls-below-this-level-it-could-get-ugly-2020-10-29?mod=home-page
Still down. SPX stopped at 3274.75, same 3274 as the day before yesterday.
ReplyDeleteStellus Capital Investment Corp. (SCM)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/scm
SCM is a mini BDC with a market cap around $157M at yesterday's closing price of $8.28, up $.24 or 2.99%.
The company reported results for the 3rd quarter this morning.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/stellus-capital-investment-corporation-reports-results-for-its-third-fiscal-quarter-ended-september-30-2020-301163556.html
NII per share $.27 + 1 cent in realized gains
Declared a regular quarterly dividend of $.25 per share + a $.06 special dividend to unload spillover income.
Net Asset Value Per Share = $13.17
+++
The pre-opening action in major stock indexes has the smell of Bad JuJu.
In middle of night futures were down much more than this morning. 2.25% on SPX.
DeleteLooks like Google's up and Amazon & FB & Apple are the drag.
I bought tech - so time for it to unwind. I tend to have good timing that way! (My $700 QQQ buy won't break my bank if it's down for a good long while, if it means better buy in points!)
It doesn't look like this is a strong rotation, though some other stocks are holding up better and keeping this from a complete unwinding.
I had guessed on an uncertain morning and probably some green mixed in.... so the juju observation was more accurate!
3271.89 SPX. Not at 3235 yet. That's too far down for market to get to -and- breech decisively today. It's friday so will likely bounce and dribble long the area if it hits such a major support.
I don't feel like buying today. This looks like it's getting ready for another leg down and start of more pullback.
DeleteOf course I could be mistaken and missing the bottom...
Land: I will buy on Bad JuJu days.
DeleteCBOE Volatility Index
39.58 1.99 5.29%
Last Updated: Oct 30, 2020 at 9:51 a.m. CDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vixDT
If I knew the future, I would not be wrong in making a prediction now. I do believe that the stock market is overvalued, particularly in the some of big tech names that have led the march to new highs.
Mark Hulbert opinion piece: "The stock market is overvalued, according to almost every measure dating to 1950"
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-overvalued-according-to-almost-every-measure-dating-to-1950-11604068887?mod=bnbh
While he is factually correct in that observation, the market has been overvalued using those measures for awhile, except in March 2020 when SPX was at 2300+.
See also:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/10/07/is-the-market-still-overvalued
I have several regional banks moving higher, possibly due to sector rotation and/or a slight rise in interest rates.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
$40.72 +$0.18 +0.44%
Last Updated: Oct 30, 2020 at 11:15 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
PBCT is ex dividend today.
The overvalued is troubling. The natural crash and re-set happened prematurely. So we have what should be an opportunity, but the exuberance didn't have time to run it's course, peek, and therefore pop.
DeleteDOW was up the most at end of day. Cruises got a green light to open, so may be why.
I'd expected a selloff before the weekend.
I had CNBC on for a while to see what theories and ideas are around. It wasn't anything. The obvious comments, but some weren't even accurate or consistent in their own commentary. So my conclusion... no one knows that the current themes are.
It's going to be a hard to focus 4 more days. The task I'm doing is from 7am to 11pm every 1-2 hours. Takes 15mins to 45, plus coordinating conversations. Not a lot of time involved, but hard to get a rhythm or focus going on other things.
My election emails have multiplied. I was filtering activism ones into folders. But new ones are popping up. I can't keep up with the filtering, and it's so many, it's making it hard to spot my email in between them.
ReplyDeleteNov 4 will be a delete with abandon day.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/10/arow-ccnep-dea-duk-enb-fcvsx-htfa-nmfc.html