Economy:
Last Thursday, stocks jumped in after hours trading that carried through into yesterday's regular trading hours based on reports that Gilead's drug Remdesvir was effective in treating the respiratory symptoms of Covid-19. Gilead data suggests coronavirus patients are responding to treatment The data was quickly interpreted by investors as supporting the consensus opinion that economic conditions will quickly improve after a disastrous second quarter.
I would emphasize that Remdesvir does not prevent people from becoming infected or infecting others. The drugs treats the fever and respiratory symptoms. There are reasons to believe it is not a "silver bullet". Why an analyst bullish on Gilead says antiviral drug ‘won’t solve’ COVID-19 - MarketWatch
Still, if the data ends up showing that all or almost all patients suffering the severe symptoms recover with 5 to 10 days of treatment, the justification for keeping businesses closed, which has huge negative repercussions that go far beyond the financial impacts, is far less compelling than when there is no effective treatment.
The stock market is rising on hope for a pharma solution to coronavirus — here's how close we are
Most of what I will be describing below are current economic conditions that are mostly or entirely ignored now by the Stock Jocks, even though the news for several weeks will likely be worse and they accept that as a given. Bad news that will arrive in a month is currently categorized as past history. It is all about the future vision thing for the Stock Jocks.
For the week ending 4/11/20, new unemployment claims were reported at 5,245,000. News Release The 4 week total through 4/11 is about 22 million. Jobless claims soar again by 5.25 million as coronavirus pushes unemployment to 15% - MarketWatch
Initial Claims-St. Louis Fed
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims- St. Louis Fed
Coronavirus erases almost all the 23 million new jobs created since the Great Recession - MarketWatch
Last Thursday, stocks jumped in after hours trading that carried through into yesterday's regular trading hours based on reports that Gilead's drug Remdesvir was effective in treating the respiratory symptoms of Covid-19. Gilead data suggests coronavirus patients are responding to treatment The data was quickly interpreted by investors as supporting the consensus opinion that economic conditions will quickly improve after a disastrous second quarter.
I would emphasize that Remdesvir does not prevent people from becoming infected or infecting others. The drugs treats the fever and respiratory symptoms. There are reasons to believe it is not a "silver bullet". Why an analyst bullish on Gilead says antiviral drug ‘won’t solve’ COVID-19 - MarketWatch
Still, if the data ends up showing that all or almost all patients suffering the severe symptoms recover with 5 to 10 days of treatment, the justification for keeping businesses closed, which has huge negative repercussions that go far beyond the financial impacts, is far less compelling than when there is no effective treatment.
The stock market is rising on hope for a pharma solution to coronavirus — here's how close we are
Most of what I will be describing below are current economic conditions that are mostly or entirely ignored now by the Stock Jocks, even though the news for several weeks will likely be worse and they accept that as a given. Bad news that will arrive in a month is currently categorized as past history. It is all about the future vision thing for the Stock Jocks.
For the week ending 4/11/20, new unemployment claims were reported at 5,245,000. News Release The 4 week total through 4/11 is about 22 million. Jobless claims soar again by 5.25 million as coronavirus pushes unemployment to 15% - MarketWatch
Coronavirus erases almost all the 23 million new jobs created since the Great Recession - MarketWatch
Fed's Kashkari says economic recovery could be slow, hard
Robert Shiller: Pandemic of fear could tip economy into a depression
All signs point to deepening recession even as U.S. eyes how to reopen for business - MarketWatch
Beige Book reports sharp contraction in activity and says business contacts expect conditions to get worse - MarketWatch; The Fed - Beige Book - April 15, 2020 ("Economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the United States as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The hardest-hit industries—because of social distancing measures and mandated closures")
Retail sales plunge a record 8.7% in March as coronavirus crisis freezes U.S. economy - MarketWatch; March Retail Sales Report.pdf April will be far worse.
New York manufacturing hits record low reading of -78.2 amid coronavirus collapse; Empire State Manufacturing Survey.PDF This is the lowest level "by a wide margin")
Philly Fed manufacturing index plunges in April - MarketWatch (-56.6%) During the Near Depression period, this index did not reach this level. The -56.6% number for this index is the lowest since 1980.
The economic data is even worse than Wall Street feared: 'The economy is clearly in ruins here'
JPMorgan Chase to raise mortgage borrowing standards as economic outlook darkens (credit score has to be at least 700 and the down payment has to be 20% or higher).
JPMorgan just revealed it thinks a lot of people won't pay their credit card bills That is not a news flash.
Fannie Mae: Home sales will decline by 15% in 2020 due to coronavirus, but what will happen to property prices? - MarketWatch
New-home construction slides 22% in March as the coronavirus shifts the tides in the housing market - MarketWatch
NMHC | NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds Rent Payment Rate at 93 Percent of Prior Month
China GDP contracted 6.8% Y-O-Y in Q1 2020 That is close to the consensus estimate.
Robert Shiller: Pandemic of fear could tip economy into a depression
All signs point to deepening recession even as U.S. eyes how to reopen for business - MarketWatch
Beige Book reports sharp contraction in activity and says business contacts expect conditions to get worse - MarketWatch; The Fed - Beige Book - April 15, 2020 ("Economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the United States as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The hardest-hit industries—because of social distancing measures and mandated closures")
Retail sales plunge a record 8.7% in March as coronavirus crisis freezes U.S. economy - MarketWatch; March Retail Sales Report.pdf April will be far worse.
New York manufacturing hits record low reading of -78.2 amid coronavirus collapse; Empire State Manufacturing Survey.PDF This is the lowest level "by a wide margin")
 |
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
The economic data is even worse than Wall Street feared: 'The economy is clearly in ruins here'
JPMorgan Chase to raise mortgage borrowing standards as economic outlook darkens (credit score has to be at least 700 and the down payment has to be 20% or higher).
JPMorgan just revealed it thinks a lot of people won't pay their credit card bills That is not a news flash.
Fannie Mae: Home sales will decline by 15% in 2020 due to coronavirus, but what will happen to property prices? - MarketWatch
New-home construction slides 22% in March as the coronavirus shifts the tides in the housing market - MarketWatch
NMHC | NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds Rent Payment Rate at 93 Percent of Prior Month
China GDP contracted 6.8% Y-O-Y in Q1 2020 That is close to the consensus estimate.
Smithfield shutting U.S. pork plant indefinitely, warns of meat shortages during pandemic - Reuters; Smithfield to shut 2 more pork plants because of coronavirus - MarketWatch (3 plants now shut)
Fed’s Clarida says there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the economy - MarketWatch I do not subscribe to that thesis. Before the pandemic, U.S. real GDP growth was largely dependent on the federal government spending about $1 trillion per year more than its revenues. Federal Debt Chart-St. Louis Fed Sourcing growth from parabolic increases in debt is not a sign IMO of a healthy economy.
Increases in consumer and business debt fueled growth as well:
Nonfinancial Corporate Business Debt Chart-St. Louis Fed; Household Debt Tops $14 Trillion as Mortgage Originations Reach Highest Volume Since 2005 - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
Reducing the federal government's annual deficit in half prior to the pandemic would have resulted in almost no real GDP growth.
Balancing the federal budget for 1 year would have caused a bad recession.
Since GDP growth was dependent on spending vast sums of borrowed money before the pandemic, the economy was not healthy and something was fundamentally wrong with the problems being systemic, structural and firmly embedded in the real economy as distinguished from the stock market. Parabolic increases in government, consumer and business debt levels only temporarily papers over the problems and will end up exacerbating them. Just give it a few more years.
Coming out of the current recession, the economy will be on life support dependent on even more federal government deficit spending.
When the economy starts to reopen, investors need to keep in mind how quickly the coronavirus spread worldwide when there was no social distancing.
A lot could have been deduced from how quickly the virus spread on the Diamond Princess that had been quarantined in Japan. ‘We’re in a Petri Dish’: How a Coronavirus Ravaged a Cruise Ship-The New York Times (2/22/20 article published before the Biogen meeting discussed below) The quarantine order confining passengers to their rooms came on 2/5. The pandemic on board that vessel started with 1 infected passenger.
An excellent case study of how Biogen employees became "super spreaders" is detailed in this NYT article. How Biogen Became a Coronavirus ‘Superspreader’-The New York Times republished at MSN, How Biogen Became a Coronavirus ‘Superspreader’.
It only took one infected person attending a Biogen meeting to start a significant cluster of infections that spread out geographically to several states as the attendees returned to their homes. The meeting was held in late February. My guess is that one of employees, who flew in from Europe, carried the infection.
Initial reports have indicated that the northeast infection clusters originated primarily from European travelers, where the virus was spreading rapidly in February, rather than those from China. Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show-The New York Times
Increases in consumer and business debt fueled growth as well:
Nonfinancial Corporate Business Debt Chart-St. Louis Fed; Household Debt Tops $14 Trillion as Mortgage Originations Reach Highest Volume Since 2005 - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
Reducing the federal government's annual deficit in half prior to the pandemic would have resulted in almost no real GDP growth.
Balancing the federal budget for 1 year would have caused a bad recession.
Since GDP growth was dependent on spending vast sums of borrowed money before the pandemic, the economy was not healthy and something was fundamentally wrong with the problems being systemic, structural and firmly embedded in the real economy as distinguished from the stock market. Parabolic increases in government, consumer and business debt levels only temporarily papers over the problems and will end up exacerbating them. Just give it a few more years.
Coming out of the current recession, the economy will be on life support dependent on even more federal government deficit spending.
When the economy starts to reopen, investors need to keep in mind how quickly the coronavirus spread worldwide when there was no social distancing.
A lot could have been deduced from how quickly the virus spread on the Diamond Princess that had been quarantined in Japan. ‘We’re in a Petri Dish’: How a Coronavirus Ravaged a Cruise Ship-The New York Times (2/22/20 article published before the Biogen meeting discussed below) The quarantine order confining passengers to their rooms came on 2/5. The pandemic on board that vessel started with 1 infected passenger.
An excellent case study of how Biogen employees became "super spreaders" is detailed in this NYT article. How Biogen Became a Coronavirus ‘Superspreader’-The New York Times republished at MSN, How Biogen Became a Coronavirus ‘Superspreader’.
It only took one infected person attending a Biogen meeting to start a significant cluster of infections that spread out geographically to several states as the attendees returned to their homes. The meeting was held in late February. My guess is that one of employees, who flew in from Europe, carried the infection.
Initial reports have indicated that the northeast infection clusters originated primarily from European travelers, where the virus was spreading rapidly in February, rather than those from China. Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show-The New York Times
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Goldman Sachs abandons its bearish near-term view on stocks, says the bottom is in - MarketWatch So they tell us that the bottom occurred in the SPX 2150-2200 range after the S& P closed at 2,759.
Paul Singer, hedge fund manger, who warned of the coronavirus crisis months ago says ‘gut’ tells him ‘a 50% or deeper decline,’ in stock market from the February top likely - MarketWatch
Morgan Stanley CEO Gorman says coronavirus recession may last through 2021
Stock-market bull warns investors not to ‘chase the rally’ as ‘epic battle’ between Fed and coronavirus unfolds - MarketWatch
Goldman Sachs abandons its bearish near-term view on stocks, says the bottom is in - MarketWatch So they tell us that the bottom occurred in the SPX 2150-2200 range after the S& P closed at 2,759.
Paul Singer, hedge fund manger, who warned of the coronavirus crisis months ago says ‘gut’ tells him ‘a 50% or deeper decline,’ in stock market from the February top likely - MarketWatch
Morgan Stanley CEO Gorman says coronavirus recession may last through 2021
Stock-market bull warns investors not to ‘chase the rally’ as ‘epic battle’ between Fed and coronavirus unfolds - MarketWatch
OPEC and allies finalize record oil production cut after days of discussion
Oil price war spurs biggest drop in import prices in three years and slams U.S. energy industry - MarketWatch
Oil price war spurs biggest drop in import prices in three years and slams U.S. energy industry - MarketWatch
Auto sales are plummeting: Ford shares fall on first-quarter revenue warning, sees losses ahead (warns of a near 16% decline in first quarter revenue); SEC Filed Ford Press Release (4/13/20)
Retail, hotel borrowers skip mortgage payments: Trepp
Why the stock market is nowhere near a bottom and investors can expect a massive hit - MarketWatch
JPMorgan profit sinks 69% amid reserve build - MarketWatch; JPMorgan Chase (JPM) earnings Q1 2020 show big decline Banks will be building up their loan loss reserves.
Wells Fargo's profit and revenue miss but NII beat - MarketWatch
Bank of America (BAC) earnings Q1 2020 (profit declined by 45% as the bank increased loan loss reserves by $3.6B)
Citigroup q1 2020 earnings (profit declines 46% as bank sets aside $4.9B more in loan loss reserves; E.P.S. $1.05 per share vs $1.87 per share in 2019 first quarter)
Goldman Sachs profit halves on higher loan loss provisions, investment hit - Reuters
Morgan Stanley profit falls 30%-MarketWatch
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Portfolio Management:
For several weeks, I was able to find investment grade corporate bonds that I could buy at prices that I was willing to pay.
That reinvestment option for cash flowing into my accounts evaporated last week.
In posts that I will publish over the coming weeks, I will be discussing most of my $1K par value corporate bond purchases, but those were mostly made in March. I have mentioned some of them in comments.
CDs and treasury yields are unlikely to produce a real rate of return before state and federal income taxes reduces the inflation adjusted yields even further into negative territory. That is the reality.
For investors willing to risk capital in exchange for the possibility of real rate of return after taxes, we are back to stocks being the only game in town.
I did do some light stock buying last week, but found myself buying about $1 of QID or SDS for every $20 invested in new common stock purchases. That kind of ratio is probably necessary for me to risk capital now, something akin to putting a pacifier in my mouth or hugging a security blanket like Linus' security blanket in the Peanuts comic strips.
I am not yet a believer in a V shaped economic recovery starting in the 3rd quarter. That near term future forecast is the most dominant one now IMO since it is the only one that conforms to what has actually happened in stock land after the March lows.
I still do not see any indication that stock sectors most impacted by the ongoing recession, and the U.S. is definitely in one now, are seeing in light at the end of that dark tunnel.
There was a better than market index gain yesterday in regional bank stocks, but many of those have fallen to 2009 price levels as have BDC stocks that were in existence during the Near Depression period such as Ares Capital:
Closing Prices as of 4/17/20:
I have a small allocation to regional bank stocks which are not producing positive total returns at the moment. Fortunately I significantly downsized the allocation in 2017-2019. Regional Bank Basket Strategy
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Retail, hotel borrowers skip mortgage payments: Trepp
Why the stock market is nowhere near a bottom and investors can expect a massive hit - MarketWatch
JPMorgan profit sinks 69% amid reserve build - MarketWatch; JPMorgan Chase (JPM) earnings Q1 2020 show big decline Banks will be building up their loan loss reserves.
Wells Fargo's profit and revenue miss but NII beat - MarketWatch
Bank of America (BAC) earnings Q1 2020 (profit declined by 45% as the bank increased loan loss reserves by $3.6B)
Citigroup q1 2020 earnings (profit declines 46% as bank sets aside $4.9B more in loan loss reserves; E.P.S. $1.05 per share vs $1.87 per share in 2019 first quarter)
Goldman Sachs profit halves on higher loan loss provisions, investment hit - Reuters
Morgan Stanley profit falls 30%-MarketWatch
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Portfolio Management:
For several weeks, I was able to find investment grade corporate bonds that I could buy at prices that I was willing to pay.
That reinvestment option for cash flowing into my accounts evaporated last week.
In posts that I will publish over the coming weeks, I will be discussing most of my $1K par value corporate bond purchases, but those were mostly made in March. I have mentioned some of them in comments.
CDs and treasury yields are unlikely to produce a real rate of return before state and federal income taxes reduces the inflation adjusted yields even further into negative territory. That is the reality.
 |
| Treasury Yield Curve April 2020 |
I did do some light stock buying last week, but found myself buying about $1 of QID or SDS for every $20 invested in new common stock purchases. That kind of ratio is probably necessary for me to risk capital now, something akin to putting a pacifier in my mouth or hugging a security blanket like Linus' security blanket in the Peanuts comic strips.
I am not yet a believer in a V shaped economic recovery starting in the 3rd quarter. That near term future forecast is the most dominant one now IMO since it is the only one that conforms to what has actually happened in stock land after the March lows.
I still do not see any indication that stock sectors most impacted by the ongoing recession, and the U.S. is definitely in one now, are seeing in light at the end of that dark tunnel.
There was a better than market index gain yesterday in regional bank stocks, but many of those have fallen to 2009 price levels as have BDC stocks that were in existence during the Near Depression period such as Ares Capital:
 |
| ARCC Monthly Prices |
 |
| KRE -43.27% 52 weeks |
 |
| QQQ +14.34% 52 weeks |
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Trump:
A Covid-19 infection has to be confirmed by a test before a death will be attributed to the virus.
Donald may get bailed out by science which is ironic given his general disdain for science, particularly when science rebuts his reality creations. Every Insane Thing Donald Trump Has Said About Global Warming
In the recently passed CARES Act, Senate republicans included a tax provision in the coronavirus aid package that benefited overwhelmingly their millionaire benefactors. Tax change in coronavirus package overwhelmingly benefits millionaires, congressional body finds
The conclusion was reached by the Joint Committee on Taxation, a nonpartisan congressional committee.
The Senate republicans largesse for their donors will increase the budget deficit by $90B in 2020 alone. Never let a good pandemic go to waste when more money can put in billionaires' pockets.
There is a strong symbiotic relationship between republican politicians and their multi-millionaire supporters.
In exchange for tax cuts that increase their wealth, more campaign contributions financed with the tax savings flow to republicans in order to protect the wealthy from higher taxes and to give them more tax breaks in the future.
It makes practical sense for the truly wealthy to buy republican politicians in this manner. Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right: Mayer, Jane: 9780307947901: Amazon.com: Books
Trump's campaign raised $212M in the 2020 first quarter. That will finance a lot of false and misleading ads that are his speciality. Donald is a master at manipulating the ignorant.
Trump administration has many task forces-but still no plan for beating covid-19
Republican Strategist Stuart Stevens Denounces the Party's Response to COVID-19 | Amanpour and Company - YouTube;
Elections have consequences. The coronavirus reaction shows we’re now living with them. - The Washington Post ("Don’t just blame President Trump. Blame me — and all the other Republicans who aided and abetted and, yes, benefited from protecting a political party that has become dangerous to America. Some of us knew better.")
It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party Became Donald Trump: Stevens, Stuart: 9780525658450: Amazon.com: Books
Coronavirus Was Slow to Spread to Rural America. Not Anymore. - The New York Times
In unprecedented move, Treasury orders Trump’s name printed on stimulus checks Donald's name is not on the signature line since only designated Treasury officials can sign checks. Instead, Donald's signature was gratuitously added in yet another self aggrandizing publicity stunt. This is the first time in U.S. history that a President's name has appeared on a Treasury check.
The first batch of checks will be delayed a few days as a result.
I am waiting for Donald's face to replace George Washington on the $1 bill and Lincoln on the $5. Republicans may favor replacing Lincoln with Donald's visage since most of them view Donald as a better President than Lincoln. Poll: Majority of Republicans say Trump better president than Lincoln | TheHill
Last Monday, Trump used the coronavirus briefing to air a campaign commercial and to rant and rave against reporters and responsible news organizations. Trump's propaganda-filled coronavirus briefing - The Washington Post; Trump coronavirus video lifted in part from Hannity's Fox News show | Media Matters for America
The Me President: Trump uses pandemic briefing to focus on himself
What set Trump off was a fact filled article published in the NYT about his many failures in effectively dealing with the pandemic: He Could Have Seen What Was Coming: Behind Trump’s Failure on the Virus, see also New York Times coronavirus report outlines how Trump 'could have seen what was coming' Facts are Fake News in Trump's America.
Donald is really impressed that his ratings are "Bachelor Finale" kind of numbers:
Trump trains his eye on key coronavirus numbers: The ratings for his daily briefings - The Washington Post In Trump's America, it is important to keep one's focus on what is really important, not people dying of course, but on Donald's poll number and reelection chances.
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Donald and Trump TV:
Donald becomes really upset whenever anyone at Fox makes an effort to be a real journalist.
Trump blasts Chris Wallace, asks 'what the hell is happening' to Fox News | TheHill
Donald was upset that Chris Wallace asked a few questions that elicited factual responses. Fox is supposed to limit itself to spreading GOP talking points and Trump's reality creations while praising him in this most effusive terms conceivable by humans.
I think Donald needs to quit watching Fox and start watching the new Netflix series TOO HOT TO HANDLE Season 1 Trailer (2020) Netflix - YouTube. Maybe God's Gift to Women can get a slot for season 2 after his reelection.
The ‘Red Dawn’ Emails: 8 Key Exchanges on the Faltering U.S. Response to the Coronavirus
A collection of Fox "New" clips on the coronavirus can be found in this video: Fox & Fiends-YouTube This clip was put together by the Lincoln Project, a group of republicans who are opposed to Trump. We Are Republicans, and We Want Trump Defeated-The Lincoln Project The Never Trumpsters are an extremely small minority of republicans. The Lincoln Project-YouTube True Conservatives find Trump appalling and dangerous to the conservative principles embodied in the Constitution.
This is another must see video: Fox News Coverage of Coronavirus vs. Ebola | NowThis - YouTube Before watching this video, it is important to keep in mind that there were only 4 confirmed cases of Ebola in the U.S. Ebola virus cases in the United States - Wikipedia The initial carrier was a Liberian national who became infected and then visited in family in Dallas. Two of the other cases were nurses who treated him. The 4th was a physician with Doctors Without Borders who had treated patients in Africa.
Rush Limbaugh Claims Governments Are Inflating Coronavirus Deaths to Further their Policies Rush knows why the government is in his opinion inflating the numbers. It is part of a government plan concocted by the Deep State to further its policies, which includes damaging Donald's reelection chances. Donald recently gave Limbaugh the Medal of Freedom award.
Limbaugh has the qualifications and journalistic integrity of Fox New's prime time anchors.
Fox "News" is making similar claims without evidence as other conspiracy theorists who have less direct access to millions. Fox Hosts Now Convinced Coronavirus Death Tolls Are Being Inflated | Vanity Fair Note that the CDC only counts a death when Covid-19 was confirmed by a test. And, it is a fact that a considerable number of people who have died with COVID-19 symptoms were not tested for the virus.
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Demagogue Don and the World Health Organization.
On 4/7/20, Demagogue Don, where the buck never stops at his desk, launched into a tirade against the World Health Organization, blaming the WHO for the Trump Administrations many failures:
Trump: “We’re going to put a hold on money spent to the W.H.O. We’re going to put a very powerful hold on it and we’re going to see.”
When asked a few minutes about this hold, the Duck denied saying he was going to put a hold on funding.
Trump: “I’m not saying that I’m going to do it. But we’re going to look at it,” he said.
When a reporter correctly pointed out to Donald that he did in fact say he was going to put a "hold" on funding. Did Donald admit that he just said he would on tape before millions of witnesses on live TV.
Trump: “No, I didn’t. I said we’re going to look at it.”
 |
| 2/24/20 "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA" |
 |
| US COVID-19 Data as of 4/17/20 |
Donald may get bailed out by science which is ironic given his general disdain for science, particularly when science rebuts his reality creations. Every Insane Thing Donald Trump Has Said About Global Warming
In the recently passed CARES Act, Senate republicans included a tax provision in the coronavirus aid package that benefited overwhelmingly their millionaire benefactors. Tax change in coronavirus package overwhelmingly benefits millionaires, congressional body finds
The conclusion was reached by the Joint Committee on Taxation, a nonpartisan congressional committee.
The Senate republicans largesse for their donors will increase the budget deficit by $90B in 2020 alone. Never let a good pandemic go to waste when more money can put in billionaires' pockets.
There is a strong symbiotic relationship between republican politicians and their multi-millionaire supporters.
In exchange for tax cuts that increase their wealth, more campaign contributions financed with the tax savings flow to republicans in order to protect the wealthy from higher taxes and to give them more tax breaks in the future.
It makes practical sense for the truly wealthy to buy republican politicians in this manner. Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right: Mayer, Jane: 9780307947901: Amazon.com: Books
Trump's campaign raised $212M in the 2020 first quarter. That will finance a lot of false and misleading ads that are his speciality. Donald is a master at manipulating the ignorant.
Trump administration has many task forces-but still no plan for beating covid-19
Republican Strategist Stuart Stevens Denounces the Party's Response to COVID-19 | Amanpour and Company - YouTube;
Elections have consequences. The coronavirus reaction shows we’re now living with them. - The Washington Post ("Don’t just blame President Trump. Blame me — and all the other Republicans who aided and abetted and, yes, benefited from protecting a political party that has become dangerous to America. Some of us knew better.")
It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party Became Donald Trump: Stevens, Stuart: 9780525658450: Amazon.com: Books
Coronavirus Was Slow to Spread to Rural America. Not Anymore. - The New York Times
Thousands of health care workers sickened by COVID-19 and 27 dead, CDC report says. But there's probably more.
Coronavirus: Blood tests aren't yet reliable, public health labs warn
But What About Donald-It is All About Him:Coronavirus: Blood tests aren't yet reliable, public health labs warn
In unprecedented move, Treasury orders Trump’s name printed on stimulus checks Donald's name is not on the signature line since only designated Treasury officials can sign checks. Instead, Donald's signature was gratuitously added in yet another self aggrandizing publicity stunt. This is the first time in U.S. history that a President's name has appeared on a Treasury check.
The first batch of checks will be delayed a few days as a result.
I am waiting for Donald's face to replace George Washington on the $1 bill and Lincoln on the $5. Republicans may favor replacing Lincoln with Donald's visage since most of them view Donald as a better President than Lincoln. Poll: Majority of Republicans say Trump better president than Lincoln | TheHill
Last Monday, Trump used the coronavirus briefing to air a campaign commercial and to rant and rave against reporters and responsible news organizations. Trump's propaganda-filled coronavirus briefing - The Washington Post; Trump coronavirus video lifted in part from Hannity's Fox News show | Media Matters for America
The Me President: Trump uses pandemic briefing to focus on himself
What set Trump off was a fact filled article published in the NYT about his many failures in effectively dealing with the pandemic: He Could Have Seen What Was Coming: Behind Trump’s Failure on the Virus, see also New York Times coronavirus report outlines how Trump 'could have seen what was coming' Facts are Fake News in Trump's America.
Donald is really impressed that his ratings are "Bachelor Finale" kind of numbers:
+++
Donald and Trump TV:
Donald becomes really upset whenever anyone at Fox makes an effort to be a real journalist.
Trump blasts Chris Wallace, asks 'what the hell is happening' to Fox News | TheHill
I think Donald needs to quit watching Fox and start watching the new Netflix series TOO HOT TO HANDLE Season 1 Trailer (2020) Netflix - YouTube. Maybe God's Gift to Women can get a slot for season 2 after his reelection.
The ‘Red Dawn’ Emails: 8 Key Exchanges on the Faltering U.S. Response to the Coronavirus
A collection of Fox "New" clips on the coronavirus can be found in this video: Fox & Fiends-YouTube This clip was put together by the Lincoln Project, a group of republicans who are opposed to Trump. We Are Republicans, and We Want Trump Defeated-The Lincoln Project The Never Trumpsters are an extremely small minority of republicans. The Lincoln Project-YouTube True Conservatives find Trump appalling and dangerous to the conservative principles embodied in the Constitution.
This is another must see video: Fox News Coverage of Coronavirus vs. Ebola | NowThis - YouTube Before watching this video, it is important to keep in mind that there were only 4 confirmed cases of Ebola in the U.S. Ebola virus cases in the United States - Wikipedia The initial carrier was a Liberian national who became infected and then visited in family in Dallas. Two of the other cases were nurses who treated him. The 4th was a physician with Doctors Without Borders who had treated patients in Africa.
Rush Limbaugh Claims Governments Are Inflating Coronavirus Deaths to Further their Policies Rush knows why the government is in his opinion inflating the numbers. It is part of a government plan concocted by the Deep State to further its policies, which includes damaging Donald's reelection chances. Donald recently gave Limbaugh the Medal of Freedom award.
Limbaugh has the qualifications and journalistic integrity of Fox New's prime time anchors.
Fox "News" is making similar claims without evidence as other conspiracy theorists who have less direct access to millions. Fox Hosts Now Convinced Coronavirus Death Tolls Are Being Inflated | Vanity Fair Note that the CDC only counts a death when Covid-19 was confirmed by a test. And, it is a fact that a considerable number of people who have died with COVID-19 symptoms were not tested for the virus.
++++ ++
Demagogue Don and the World Health Organization.
On 4/7/20, Demagogue Don, where the buck never stops at his desk, launched into a tirade against the World Health Organization, blaming the WHO for the Trump Administrations many failures:
Trump: “We’re going to put a hold on money spent to the W.H.O. We’re going to put a very powerful hold on it and we’re going to see.”
When asked a few minutes about this hold, the Duck denied saying he was going to put a hold on funding.
Trump: “I’m not saying that I’m going to do it. But we’re going to look at it,” he said.
When a reporter correctly pointed out to Donald that he did in fact say he was going to put a "hold" on funding. Did Donald admit that he just said he would on tape before millions of witnesses on live TV.
Trump: “No, I didn’t. I said we’re going to look at it.”
Trump hints at cutting WHO funding over coronavirus handling, says they ‘really blew it’ ; Trump announces, then reverses, freeze on funding for World Health Organization - POLITICO
It is not usual for Donald to emphatically deny saying something that he just said.
It is not usual for Donald to emphatically deny saying something that he just said.
Last Tuesday (4/14), Donald went ahead and suspended U.S. contributions to the World Health Organization during a worldwide pandemic.
I would note that Congress appropriated the money for WHO, but that is irrelevant in Trump's America as shown by Trump taking money appropriated for defense spending to fund his wall construction. All the times Trump said the constitution let's him do whatever he wants-YouTube And republicans will let him, make no mistake about that fact.
The Senate republicans are going to investigate and then reach the following conclusion announced by Donald during Tuesday's press. Senate Republicans investigating WHO and China's coronavirus response The findings that will result from the investigation include, according to Donald, that WHO “pushed China’s misinformation about the virus, saying it wasn’t communicable" The Trumpster Senator Ron Johnson from Wisconsin will lead the fair investigation which will not include investigating Donald's response.
This is purely political show of course, and is intended to distract attention from Donald's many failures. It does show the rest of the world how far off the deep end the U.S. has gone with Trump and his cult at the helm.
Criticized for Pandemic Response, Trump Tries Shifting Blame to the W.H.O. - The New York Times The buck never stops at Trump's desk when the news is bad.
Trump: 'I don't take responsibility at all': Trump deflects blame for coronavirus testing fumble - POLITICO
Trump has a different approach when someone, other than himself, is sitting in the Oval Office:
Forming a national policy for testing is not something Donald will do. Trump: U.S. states, not federal government, must improve testing
Coronavirus cases: Across the US, states ranked by cases per capita (Texas which is controlled by republicans has tested only 4.3 persons per 1000, so how many of the remaining Texans have been infected and are asymptomatic of a total population of 28.7M, and what happens when the unidentified infected people travel to other states or mingle with people unaware that they are carriers) Trump simply wants to avoid responsibility and to be able to blame the states for his failures to lead.)
More From Don the Authoritarian:
Trump’s dismissal of competent officials is an attack on accountability - The Washington Post Sure, Donald is a pure authoritarian who, in his own words, can do anything that he wants to do as President. In implementing that view of the Imperial Presidency, he has the full support of his party with nary a whimper in opposition.
The most recent authoritarian statements involve Trump's claims that he can overrule decisions made by mayors and governors designed to protect their constituents' health. Trump claims he, not governors, has authority on opening state economies | TheHill
Trump: “When somebody’s the president of the United States, the authority is total. And that’s the way it’s got to be. It’s total. It’s total.” Trump's 'total authority' boast
It is interesting that republicans, the primary proponents of "states rights" when it suits their ideology, are okay with this claim of unlimited presidential power when exercised by a republican president. PolitiFact | Trump’s false claim that it’s up to him — not governors-to open states; No, Trump doesn't call the shots on reopening states, constitutional scholars say - CBS News Trump has repeatedly claimed that he can do whatever he wants as President.
Trump accuses governors of ‘mutiny’ as tensions mount over reopening - MarketWatch Trumpsters chanting "Lock Them Up" can not be far behind.
Donald has decided for now that he will not overrule the governors but will only issue guidelines for them to follow. Trump tells governors 'you are going to call your own shots' and distributes new guidelines
Demagogue Don then suggested in several tweets yesterday that the Trumpsters defy stay-at-home orders from several Democrat governors. Donald was simply trying to score political points in battleground states through encouraging Trumpsters to ignore the state government orders designed to protect the health and safety of citizens.
Trump: 'LIBERATE' states with Dem-issued stay-at-home orders-POLITICO
Trump Accused of Inciting Violence With 'LIBERATE' Tweets
In Trump's 'LIBERATE' tweets, extremists see a call to arms (they were certainly carrying their automatic weapons to the state capital steps)
A significant number of Trumpsters appeared at a protest in Michigan carrying what appeared to be automatic weapons. Coronavirus: Anti-lockdown protests grow across US - BBC News There were no reports of shootings. In Trump's America, everyone has the freedom to spread infectious diseases.
Trump threatens to adjourn Congress so he can make recess appointments This would be yet another clearly authoritarian act by Donald that is unconstitutional. Donald claims the Constitution grants him the power to adjourn Congress. That is a lie. The Constitution provides that the President may adjourn Congress only when the House and Senate can not agree on an adjournment. The House and Senate have such an agreement in place.
Trump has 'dangerously undermined truth' with attacks on news media: report - The Washington Post; see The Trump Administration and the Media - Committee to Protect Journalists The Trumpsters could care less and would never admit anyway that Donald is undermining truth.
For most republicans, Donald is honest and a role model for their children. (Question 11, 75% of republicans say Trump is honest-National (US) Poll - March 9, 2020; Nearly 70 percent say Trump is a bad role model for children: poll | TheHill )
Donald's statements summarized in this section are just more proof, when none is needed, of his strong authoritarian tendencies and are consistent with his admiration for, and praise of authoritarian heads of state.
Donald is without question a lying demagogue with strong authoritarian tendencies. That conclusion is not subject to debate. The question is what conclusions can be drawn from his 90+% support from republicans.
++++
Lying Don's False Statements About His China Travel "Ban" and He Repeats False Claim that China Pays U.S. tariffs:
Trump has repeatedly claimed that it barred travel from China in a 1/31/20 executive order. Hannity makes the same claim.
Trump and Hannity are lying when they claim Lying Don banned travel from China. Trump's Snowballing China Travel Claim - FactCheck.org
Trumpsters will parrot this lie as a fact without bothering to check the accuracy.
Trump announced on 1/31/20 a travel restriction effective 2/3/20. Under the travel RESTRICTION, "non-U.S. citizens, other than the immediate family of U.S. citizens and permanent residents, were prohibited from entering the U.S. if they had traveled to China within the previous two weeks."
Over 40,000 people travelled from China to the U.S. after Trump's claimed ban on travel. 430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced - The New York Times (the cat was already out of the bag before Donald imposed the travel restriction). The data comes from the U.S. Commerce Department.
Trump’s inaccurate boasts on China travel ban; Sean Hannity declares Trump travel ban “without a doubt … the single most consequential decision in history” | Media Matters for America This guy spews as much nonsense, false information, and garbage as Donald, probably with more vile and venom which passes for intelligence and informed opinion based on facts in the Trump/Fox world.
See Fox News’ Jesse Watters Said Travel Bans ‘More Critical In Saving Lives’ Than COVID Testing. He’s Wrong. | Kaiser Health News ("Global health specialists told us there is little to no evidence that Trump’s restrictions have restrained COVID-19 ― they came too late and didn’t have the follow-up necessary to make a real dent.")
Trump Says 'Everything We Did' Was Right - YouTube
Time to reproduce this snapshot again:
Just making stuff up as usual. 5 ways the Trump administration fell short of its own pandemic goals
Trump's lies will be on over drive as he launches his reelection campaign ads. Trump ad slammed for depicting first U.S. Chinese American governor as Chinese official
Last Wednesday, I had the TV on, working at my computer and listening to Donald claim once again that China pays the U.S tariffs, a demonstrably false statements that he has made over and over again. U.S. importers pay the tariffs. Donald then directed the U.S. agricultural secretary to take China's tariff money and to give it to U.S. farmers.
Companies juggle Trump tariffs with payroll as recession deepens- POLITICO Paying Trump's tariffs on imported products during a recession will cause more layoffs. Donald obfuscates that fact by falsely asserting it is China rather than U.S. firms who pay the tariffs.
++++
Doctor Don-No Limits to His Expertise-and The Trumpster Governor of South Dakota:
Hyped Malaria Pill Doesn’t Help Clear Coronavirus in Study
Anti-malarial drug touted by Trump was subject of CIA warning to employees - The Washington Post (CIA Waning March 2020: "At this point, the drug is not recommended to be used by patients except by medical professionals prescribing it as part of ongoing investigational studies. There are potentially significant side effects, including sudden cardiac death, associated with hydroxychloroquine and its individual use in patients need to be carefully selected and monitored by a health care professional”)
The Trumpster Governor of South Dakota Kristi Noem has started clinical trials on her citizens. South Dakota implements statewide hydroxychloroquine clinical trial for potential coronavirus treatment | Fox News,
Governor Noem is one of several GOP governors who refused to issue stay at home orders.
Noem: No Stay-At-Home Order, State to Test Anti-Malaria Drug-US News;
South Dakota’s governor resisted ordering people to stay home. Now it has one of the nation’s largest coronavirus hot spots.-The Washington Post;
Another record day for confirmed coronavirus cases in South Dakota -rapidcityjournal.com
Professionally conducted trials are underway to determine whether this malaria drug helps and whether the benefit, if any, outweighs the known harmful side effects.
Coronavirus: US clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine hit 'warp speed'
Brazil halted its trial after patients died from the side effects which include heart arrhythmia which Donald never mentions when he claims that people have nothing to lose taking that malaria drug.
The U.S. studies have been fast tracked by the FDA, so it is not clear why South Dakota's governor would want a trial using its residents as test subjects other than to curry favor with Donald.
Covid-19 Updates:
I am monitoring developments actively. New information is relevant to my current investment decisions and asset allocations.
Explainer: Why are some South Koreans who recovered from the coronavirus testing positive again? - Reuters
Coronavirus is 10 times deadlier than swine flu, WHO leader says
Limbaugh and other informed republicans beg to differ. Rush Limbaugh: Coronavirus is like the common cold, and "all of this panic is just not warranted" | Media Matters for America
U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll May Only Be 'Tip of the Iceberg,' Says CDC Adviser
The FDA is giving emergency authorizations to coronavirus tests that produce inaccurate results. Coronavirus Tests Are Being Fast-Tracked by the FDA, but It's Unclear How Accurate They Are Authorizations are given without the normal tests and trials that establish the test as effective. Real samples of COVID-19 taken from infected patients are not being used to judge efficacy but contrived samples created by taking coronavirus RNA made in a lab and then putting it in a medium that mimics nasal mucus.
Hot spots erupt in farm belt states where governors insist lockdowns aren’t needed
Donald believes that a low confirmed infection rate in several states proves that those states have no problems. There is a big difference between confirmed COVID-19 after tests and the actual number of COVID-19 present in a state's population. The low number of positive test results is a function of the small number of tests.
Data has been streaming out that far more infections actually exist. A recent sample of Santa Clara County, CA. residents found that the prevalence estimates for that sample indicated that the number of actual infections was 60 to 85 fold higher than the confirmed infection rate. COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California | medRxiv; Santa Clara Covid-19 antibody study suggests broad asymptomatic spread
Women appearing at a NYC hospital to give birth were tested for COVID-19. Of the 215 women tested, only 4 had symptoms. Of the remaining women presenting no symptoms, 29 or 13.7% tested positive for COVID-19. NYC Hospital Finds High COVID-19 Infection Rate, but Few Symptoms, in Pregnant Women – NBC New York
++++++
I am just fascinated by the group delusions and common reality creations held by Trumpsters.
The creme of the Trumpsters are interviewed in these video clips: Jordan Klepper vs. Trump Supporters | The Daily Show - YouTube; The "Best" Of Trump Supporters - YouTube; Trump Supporter MELTDOWN: “It’s Fake News!” - YouTube I particularly like the interview with the Trumpster who claimed that statements made by Trump on tape were Fake News. That pretty much sums everything up in a nutshell. It is impossible to have a fact based debate with them, so my recommendation is to refrain from the totally futile effort.
+++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
I would note that Congress appropriated the money for WHO, but that is irrelevant in Trump's America as shown by Trump taking money appropriated for defense spending to fund his wall construction. All the times Trump said the constitution let's him do whatever he wants-YouTube And republicans will let him, make no mistake about that fact.
The Senate republicans are going to investigate and then reach the following conclusion announced by Donald during Tuesday's press. Senate Republicans investigating WHO and China's coronavirus response The findings that will result from the investigation include, according to Donald, that WHO “pushed China’s misinformation about the virus, saying it wasn’t communicable" The Trumpster Senator Ron Johnson from Wisconsin will lead the fair investigation which will not include investigating Donald's response.
This is purely political show of course, and is intended to distract attention from Donald's many failures. It does show the rest of the world how far off the deep end the U.S. has gone with Trump and his cult at the helm.
Criticized for Pandemic Response, Trump Tries Shifting Blame to the W.H.O. - The New York Times The buck never stops at Trump's desk when the news is bad.
Trump: 'I don't take responsibility at all': Trump deflects blame for coronavirus testing fumble - POLITICO
Trump has a different approach when someone, other than himself, is sitting in the Oval Office:
Coronavirus cases: Across the US, states ranked by cases per capita (Texas which is controlled by republicans has tested only 4.3 persons per 1000, so how many of the remaining Texans have been infected and are asymptomatic of a total population of 28.7M, and what happens when the unidentified infected people travel to other states or mingle with people unaware that they are carriers) Trump simply wants to avoid responsibility and to be able to blame the states for his failures to lead.)
More From Don the Authoritarian:
Trump’s dismissal of competent officials is an attack on accountability - The Washington Post Sure, Donald is a pure authoritarian who, in his own words, can do anything that he wants to do as President. In implementing that view of the Imperial Presidency, he has the full support of his party with nary a whimper in opposition.
The most recent authoritarian statements involve Trump's claims that he can overrule decisions made by mayors and governors designed to protect their constituents' health. Trump claims he, not governors, has authority on opening state economies | TheHill
Trump: “When somebody’s the president of the United States, the authority is total. And that’s the way it’s got to be. It’s total. It’s total.” Trump's 'total authority' boast
It is interesting that republicans, the primary proponents of "states rights" when it suits their ideology, are okay with this claim of unlimited presidential power when exercised by a republican president. PolitiFact | Trump’s false claim that it’s up to him — not governors-to open states; No, Trump doesn't call the shots on reopening states, constitutional scholars say - CBS News Trump has repeatedly claimed that he can do whatever he wants as President.
Trump accuses governors of ‘mutiny’ as tensions mount over reopening - MarketWatch Trumpsters chanting "Lock Them Up" can not be far behind.
Donald has decided for now that he will not overrule the governors but will only issue guidelines for them to follow. Trump tells governors 'you are going to call your own shots' and distributes new guidelines
Demagogue Don then suggested in several tweets yesterday that the Trumpsters defy stay-at-home orders from several Democrat governors. Donald was simply trying to score political points in battleground states through encouraging Trumpsters to ignore the state government orders designed to protect the health and safety of citizens.
Trump: 'LIBERATE' states with Dem-issued stay-at-home orders-POLITICO
Trump Accused of Inciting Violence With 'LIBERATE' Tweets
In Trump's 'LIBERATE' tweets, extremists see a call to arms (they were certainly carrying their automatic weapons to the state capital steps)
A significant number of Trumpsters appeared at a protest in Michigan carrying what appeared to be automatic weapons. Coronavirus: Anti-lockdown protests grow across US - BBC News There were no reports of shootings. In Trump's America, everyone has the freedom to spread infectious diseases.
Trump threatens to adjourn Congress so he can make recess appointments This would be yet another clearly authoritarian act by Donald that is unconstitutional. Donald claims the Constitution grants him the power to adjourn Congress. That is a lie. The Constitution provides that the President may adjourn Congress only when the House and Senate can not agree on an adjournment. The House and Senate have such an agreement in place.
Trump has 'dangerously undermined truth' with attacks on news media: report - The Washington Post; see The Trump Administration and the Media - Committee to Protect Journalists The Trumpsters could care less and would never admit anyway that Donald is undermining truth.
For most republicans, Donald is honest and a role model for their children. (Question 11, 75% of republicans say Trump is honest-National (US) Poll - March 9, 2020; Nearly 70 percent say Trump is a bad role model for children: poll | TheHill )
Donald's statements summarized in this section are just more proof, when none is needed, of his strong authoritarian tendencies and are consistent with his admiration for, and praise of authoritarian heads of state.
Donald is without question a lying demagogue with strong authoritarian tendencies. That conclusion is not subject to debate. The question is what conclusions can be drawn from his 90+% support from republicans.
++++
Lying Don's False Statements About His China Travel "Ban" and He Repeats False Claim that China Pays U.S. tariffs:
Trump has repeatedly claimed that it barred travel from China in a 1/31/20 executive order. Hannity makes the same claim.
Trumpsters will parrot this lie as a fact without bothering to check the accuracy.
Trump announced on 1/31/20 a travel restriction effective 2/3/20. Under the travel RESTRICTION, "non-U.S. citizens, other than the immediate family of U.S. citizens and permanent residents, were prohibited from entering the U.S. if they had traveled to China within the previous two weeks."
Over 40,000 people travelled from China to the U.S. after Trump's claimed ban on travel. 430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced - The New York Times (the cat was already out of the bag before Donald imposed the travel restriction). The data comes from the U.S. Commerce Department.
Trump’s inaccurate boasts on China travel ban; Sean Hannity declares Trump travel ban “without a doubt … the single most consequential decision in history” | Media Matters for America This guy spews as much nonsense, false information, and garbage as Donald, probably with more vile and venom which passes for intelligence and informed opinion based on facts in the Trump/Fox world.
See Fox News’ Jesse Watters Said Travel Bans ‘More Critical In Saving Lives’ Than COVID Testing. He’s Wrong. | Kaiser Health News ("Global health specialists told us there is little to no evidence that Trump’s restrictions have restrained COVID-19 ― they came too late and didn’t have the follow-up necessary to make a real dent.")
Trump Says 'Everything We Did' Was Right - YouTube
Time to reproduce this snapshot again:
|
| As if 4/17/20 |
Trump's lies will be on over drive as he launches his reelection campaign ads. Trump ad slammed for depicting first U.S. Chinese American governor as Chinese official
Last Wednesday, I had the TV on, working at my computer and listening to Donald claim once again that China pays the U.S tariffs, a demonstrably false statements that he has made over and over again. U.S. importers pay the tariffs. Donald then directed the U.S. agricultural secretary to take China's tariff money and to give it to U.S. farmers.
Companies juggle Trump tariffs with payroll as recession deepens- POLITICO Paying Trump's tariffs on imported products during a recession will cause more layoffs. Donald obfuscates that fact by falsely asserting it is China rather than U.S. firms who pay the tariffs.
++++
Doctor Don-No Limits to His Expertise-and The Trumpster Governor of South Dakota:
Hyped Malaria Pill Doesn’t Help Clear Coronavirus in Study
Anti-malarial drug touted by Trump was subject of CIA warning to employees - The Washington Post (CIA Waning March 2020: "At this point, the drug is not recommended to be used by patients except by medical professionals prescribing it as part of ongoing investigational studies. There are potentially significant side effects, including sudden cardiac death, associated with hydroxychloroquine and its individual use in patients need to be carefully selected and monitored by a health care professional”)
The Trumpster Governor of South Dakota Kristi Noem has started clinical trials on her citizens. South Dakota implements statewide hydroxychloroquine clinical trial for potential coronavirus treatment | Fox News,
Governor Noem is one of several GOP governors who refused to issue stay at home orders.
Noem: No Stay-At-Home Order, State to Test Anti-Malaria Drug-US News;
South Dakota’s governor resisted ordering people to stay home. Now it has one of the nation’s largest coronavirus hot spots.-The Washington Post;
Another record day for confirmed coronavirus cases in South Dakota -rapidcityjournal.com
Professionally conducted trials are underway to determine whether this malaria drug helps and whether the benefit, if any, outweighs the known harmful side effects.
Coronavirus: US clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine hit 'warp speed'
Brazil halted its trial after patients died from the side effects which include heart arrhythmia which Donald never mentions when he claims that people have nothing to lose taking that malaria drug.
The U.S. studies have been fast tracked by the FDA, so it is not clear why South Dakota's governor would want a trial using its residents as test subjects other than to curry favor with Donald.
Covid-19 Updates:
I am monitoring developments actively. New information is relevant to my current investment decisions and asset allocations.
Explainer: Why are some South Koreans who recovered from the coronavirus testing positive again? - Reuters
Coronavirus is 10 times deadlier than swine flu, WHO leader says
Limbaugh and other informed republicans beg to differ. Rush Limbaugh: Coronavirus is like the common cold, and "all of this panic is just not warranted" | Media Matters for America
U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll May Only Be 'Tip of the Iceberg,' Says CDC Adviser
The FDA is giving emergency authorizations to coronavirus tests that produce inaccurate results. Coronavirus Tests Are Being Fast-Tracked by the FDA, but It's Unclear How Accurate They Are Authorizations are given without the normal tests and trials that establish the test as effective. Real samples of COVID-19 taken from infected patients are not being used to judge efficacy but contrived samples created by taking coronavirus RNA made in a lab and then putting it in a medium that mimics nasal mucus.
Hot spots erupt in farm belt states where governors insist lockdowns aren’t needed
Donald believes that a low confirmed infection rate in several states proves that those states have no problems. There is a big difference between confirmed COVID-19 after tests and the actual number of COVID-19 present in a state's population. The low number of positive test results is a function of the small number of tests.
Data has been streaming out that far more infections actually exist. A recent sample of Santa Clara County, CA. residents found that the prevalence estimates for that sample indicated that the number of actual infections was 60 to 85 fold higher than the confirmed infection rate. COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California | medRxiv; Santa Clara Covid-19 antibody study suggests broad asymptomatic spread
Women appearing at a NYC hospital to give birth were tested for COVID-19. Of the 215 women tested, only 4 had symptoms. Of the remaining women presenting no symptoms, 29 or 13.7% tested positive for COVID-19. NYC Hospital Finds High COVID-19 Infection Rate, but Few Symptoms, in Pregnant Women – NBC New York
++++++
I am just fascinated by the group delusions and common reality creations held by Trumpsters.
The creme of the Trumpsters are interviewed in these video clips: Jordan Klepper vs. Trump Supporters | The Daily Show - YouTube; The "Best" Of Trump Supporters - YouTube; Trump Supporter MELTDOWN: “It’s Fake News!” - YouTube I particularly like the interview with the Trumpster who claimed that statements made by Trump on tape were Fake News. That pretty much sums everything up in a nutshell. It is impossible to have a fact based debate with them, so my recommendation is to refrain from the totally futile effort.
+++
1. Small Ball:
A. Bought 50 DOC at $16.4; 5 at $15.96 and 45 at $12.96 and Sold 55 at $16.77:
Quote:Physicians Realty Trust (DOC)
Sold 55 at $16.77:
Profit Snapshot: +$22.44
Using FIFO accounting, I kept the 45 shares bought at $12.96. This is typical small ball.
Closing Price on 4/17/20: DOC $15.84 +$0.62 +4.07%
Prior to the purchase at $12.96 referenced above, the lowest price that I have paid was $13.75. Item # 2: Bought 100 DOC at $13.75 (10/11/14 Post) That 100 share lot was sold in 2015 for a $237.96 profit
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
DOC SEC Filings
DOC 2019 Annual Report (As of December 31, 2019, our consolidated portfolio consisted of 258 healthcare properties located in 31 states with approximately 13,695,255 net leasable square feet, which were approximately 96% leased with a weighted average remaining lease term of approximately 7.4 years. As of December 31, 2019, approximately 90% of the net leasable square footage of our consolidated portfolio was either on campus with a hospital or other healthcare facility or strategically affiliated with a hospital or other healthcare provider organization.")
3 Year Funds Available for Distribution "FAD":
Recent Sell Discussions: Item # 4.A. Sold Remaining DOC at $17.1-Used Commission Free Trade (12/9/18 Post); Item # 3.A. Sold 103 DOC at $16.92 (8/19/18 Post)
DOC Trading Profits to Date: $403.92
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 (up from .225 per share in 2014 or about 2.22% in 6 years)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 4/1/20 (all shares owned)
Average Cost Per Share: $13.06 (46+ shares) The dividend reinvestment (previous snapshot) raised my average cost per share from $12.96.
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 7 %
Physicians Realty Trust Provides Supplemental Update Pertaining to COVID-19 Pandemic (we anticipated higher acquisition growth in 2020, but in light of current capital market conditions, we are withdrawing our 2020 acquisition guidance for now. . . Since December 31, 2019 and through March 11, 2020, the Company issued 12,352,700 shares pursuant to its at the market equity distribution program, (“ATM”) at a weighted average price of $19.57 for net proceeds of $239.3 million. During the same period, the Company has completed net investments of $18.4 million, representing the acquisition of two medical office facilities and fundings under previously outstanding construction loans. . . As of March 19, 2020, the outstanding balance of the Company’s unsecured revolving credit facility is $180.0 million. The total borrowing capacity of the unsecured revolving credit facility, excluding the accordion feature, is $850.0 million.")
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
FAD per share 4th Quarter = $.238
Dividend per quarter: $.23
A now standard observation that I make about DOC is that FAD per share barely covers the dividend and is barely growing. Sure FAD as an absolute number is growing but so is the share count due to frequent stock offerings.
When you combine those two facts, the prospect for meaningful dividend growth is non-existent and a dividend cut as a result of an adverse event or events is a possibility. An adverse event could have multiple causes but the result would be lower occupancy levels and some tenant defaults.
Physicians Realty Trust Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results
On 3/9/20, BMO upgraded to outperform from market perform with a $23 price target.
On 3/12/20, Raymond James raised its PT to $22 from $20 and SunTrust Robinson raised its PT to $19 from $18.
Fro my remaining shares, I will start to look for an exit before the stock reaches $18. Cash flow per share growth is uninspiring which will restrain any meaningful growth in the dividend. The properties purchased by DOC in recent years had relatively low cap rates IMO.
B. Bought 20 GMRE at $10; 10 at $9.2; 10 at $8.81; 10 at $8.2 and Sold 10 at $11.22 :
Purchases:
Sold Highest Cost Lot:
Profit Snapshot (10 Shares) = +$12.17
Quote: Global Medical REIT Inc. (GMRE)
Closing Price 4/17: GMRE $11.23 +$0.66 +6.24%
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
Website: Global Medical REIT
Portfolio – Global Medical REIT
Management: External (currently looking at internalization)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Property Portfolio as of 12/31/19:
Last Elimination: Item # 4.A. Eliminated GMRE-Sold 98+ at $9.41 (11/28/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $159.01)
Last Buy Trades: Item # 1.A. Bought 10 GMRE at $7.19 and 10 at $6.77-Used Commission Free Trades (3/8/18 Post)
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.C. Sold 50 GMRE at $10.01 (5/23/2017 Post); South Gent's Comment Blog # 7: Eliminated GMRE;
GMRE Trading Profits to Date = $376.15
1 Year Chart as of Date of Purchase (3/13/20):
Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share
Average Cost Per Share = $9.05 (40 shares)
Dividend Yield at $9.05 = 8.84 %
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/24/20 (after all share purchases)
Recent Stock Offering: Last December, GMRE sold 6.9M shares, which includes the greenshoe allocation, at $13. GMRE
Another offering completed in March 2019 was priced at $9.75.
This REIT is growing rapidly and is funding that growth in part with equity offerings. I would reasonably anticipate more offerings that will at a minimum temporarily knock down the share price. The issue is not the temporary price decline but whether the company is using the funds to make acquisitions benefiting the shareholders rather than just the external management company.
Preferred Stock: Global Medical REIT Inc. 7.5% Cumulative Preferred Stock Series A Overview I discuss starting a small ball buying program in Item # 2.A. below.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): Global Medical REIT Announces Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2019 Financial Results
GMRE reported adjusted FFO of $.21 per share, better than the consensus estimate of $.20 .
On 3/6/20, Compass Point raised its PT to $16 from $14.75 and Baird lifted its PT to $17 from $14. B. Riley downgraded GMRE on the same day to neutral while raising its PT to $16 from $15. Janney kept its buy rating and raised its PT to $15 from $14.5. All of the foregoing was in response to the earnings report released on 3/4 after the close.
Maximum Position: 100 shares + shares purchased with dividends
Current Position: 40 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
C. Added 1 ENB at $27.23; 1 at $26.21; 1 at $25.79; 1 at $24.9; 1 at $23.68 :
Quote: Enbridge Inc. (U.S.: NYSE)
Closing Price 4/17: ENB $29.40 +$0.90 +3.16%
SEC Filings
Investment Center Dashboard - Enbridge Inc.
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Sold 8 ENB at $42.36 (2/19/20 Post)(profitably selling all shares bought with dividends)
I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing to add.
Item # 3.B. Sold 17 ENB at $40.21 (1/18/20 Post)
Item # 1.B. Sold 15 ENB at $37.61-Used Commission Free Trade (2/20/19 Post)
Item # 3 Sold 50 ENB at $39.03 (12/21/17 Post)
Sold 10 ENB at $40.14 (1/5/18 Post)
Recent Buy Discussions: Item # 3 Bought 2 ENB at $29.95 and 2 at $30.89-Used Commission Free Trades (3/29/18 Post)
Item # 2 Added 5 ENB at $32.28; 2 at $31.92; and 2 at $31.45-Used Commission Free Trades (3/15/18 Post)
Item # 2 Added 9 ENB at an Average Total Cost Per Share of $32.18 (3/15/18 POST)
Moving slowing in and out are standard small ball trading techniques.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 2/14/20
Dividends: Quarterly at C$.81 per share
Dividends and Common Shares - Enbridge Inc.
For U.S. citizens, the Canadian government will withhold a 15% tax from the payment when the stock is owned in a taxable account but not when the stock is owned in a retirement account. That is pursuant to the existing U.S-Canada tax treaty. The CAD amount will be converted into USDs for owners of ENB.
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): Enbridge Inc. Reports Strong Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2019 Results
Purchase Restriction: Changed from Small Ball Restriction to each subsequent purchase must lower my average cost per share.
Current Position: 28+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $31.47
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (3/12/20): 5 stars with a FV of US$44
Argus (2/19/20): Buy, raises PT to US$46 from US$44
S & P (3/3/20): 4 stars with a PT of US$47
I do not have access to the following reports:
On 4/8/20, J.P. Morgan upgraded ENB to overweight from neutral and cuts its PT to C$56 from C$57.
On 4/3/20, UBS kept its buy rating but cut its PT to C$50 from C$51.
On 3/31/20, TD Securities cut its PT to C$57 from C$62.
D. Added 1 D at $73.8; 1 at $71.96; 1 at $71; 1 at $68.53; 1 at $68; 1 at $60.6:
Quote: Dominion Energy Inc. (D)
Closing Price 4/17: D $81.51 +$3.44 +4.41%
Investor Relations | Dominion Energy
D | Dominion Energy Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Bought 10 D at $74.9-Used Commission Free Trade (8/28/19 Post)
Current Position: 16 shares
Average Cost Per Share: $72.68
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Dividend: Quarterly at $.95 per share ($3.76 annually)
Dividend growth has been good for an electric and gas utility. Dividends & Splits | Dominion Energy
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.17%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 2/27/20
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): Dominion Energy Announces Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2019 Earnings - Feb 11, 2020
GAAP Earnings: $1B or $1.21 per share
Adjusted: $988M, up from $592M in the 2018 4th quarter
Revenues were 33% higher due to higher residential sales.
Operating E.P.S. Guidance for 2020: $4.25 to $4.6
Broker Reports (available for review by Schwab customers):
Morningstar (4/8/20): 4 stars with a
Credit Suisse (2/18/20 ): Outperform with a $90 PT
Argus (3/16/20): Buy with a $87 PT
S & P (2/22/20): 4 stars with a $92 PT
E. Restarted Small Ball "Buying Program" in CS- Bought 10 at $7.68; 2 at $7.07; 10 at $7; :
Quote: CS | Credit Suisse Group AG ADR
Closing Price 4/17: CS $8.24 +$0.41 +5.24%
ADR Ratio: 1 to 1
Investor relations – Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse Group AG (ADR) Key Developments | Reuters
CS - Credit Suisse Group AG (ADR) Profile | Reuters
Last Round-Trip: Item # 3.C. Eliminated CS-Sold 50 at $13 (11/27/19 Post (profit snapshot = $73.73)-Item# 1 Bought 50 CS at $11.49 (10/11/19 Post)($1 IB commission per trade)
Current Position: 25 Shares
Average Cost Per Share = $7.24
Dividend: The dividend is usually paid on an annual basis. Due to pressure from regulators, the 2020 dividend will be paid in two semi-annual installments. Board of Directors publishes adjusted dividend proposal for the 2020 Annual General Meeting
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers)
Morningstar (3/31/20): 5 stars, narrow moat for wealth management business, FV estimate of US$17.
S & P (2/17/20): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $14. (a 3 star rating is inconsistent with that PT)
A. Bought 50 DOC at $16.4; 5 at $15.96 and 45 at $12.96 and Sold 55 at $16.77:
Sold 55 at $16.77:
Closing Price on 4/17/20: DOC $15.84 +$0.62 +4.07%
Prior to the purchase at $12.96 referenced above, the lowest price that I have paid was $13.75. Item # 2: Bought 100 DOC at $13.75 (10/11/14 Post) That 100 share lot was sold in 2015 for a $237.96 profit
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
DOC SEC Filings
DOC 2019 Annual Report (As of December 31, 2019, our consolidated portfolio consisted of 258 healthcare properties located in 31 states with approximately 13,695,255 net leasable square feet, which were approximately 96% leased with a weighted average remaining lease term of approximately 7.4 years. As of December 31, 2019, approximately 90% of the net leasable square footage of our consolidated portfolio was either on campus with a hospital or other healthcare facility or strategically affiliated with a hospital or other healthcare provider organization.")
3 Year Funds Available for Distribution "FAD":
DOC Trading Profits to Date: $403.92
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 (up from .225 per share in 2014 or about 2.22% in 6 years)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 4/1/20 (all shares owned)
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 7 %
Physicians Realty Trust Provides Supplemental Update Pertaining to COVID-19 Pandemic (we anticipated higher acquisition growth in 2020, but in light of current capital market conditions, we are withdrawing our 2020 acquisition guidance for now. . . Since December 31, 2019 and through March 11, 2020, the Company issued 12,352,700 shares pursuant to its at the market equity distribution program, (“ATM”) at a weighted average price of $19.57 for net proceeds of $239.3 million. During the same period, the Company has completed net investments of $18.4 million, representing the acquisition of two medical office facilities and fundings under previously outstanding construction loans. . . As of March 19, 2020, the outstanding balance of the Company’s unsecured revolving credit facility is $180.0 million. The total borrowing capacity of the unsecured revolving credit facility, excluding the accordion feature, is $850.0 million.")
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
Dividend per quarter: $.23
A now standard observation that I make about DOC is that FAD per share barely covers the dividend and is barely growing. Sure FAD as an absolute number is growing but so is the share count due to frequent stock offerings.
When you combine those two facts, the prospect for meaningful dividend growth is non-existent and a dividend cut as a result of an adverse event or events is a possibility. An adverse event could have multiple causes but the result would be lower occupancy levels and some tenant defaults.
Physicians Realty Trust Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results
On 3/9/20, BMO upgraded to outperform from market perform with a $23 price target.
On 3/12/20, Raymond James raised its PT to $22 from $20 and SunTrust Robinson raised its PT to $19 from $18.
Fro my remaining shares, I will start to look for an exit before the stock reaches $18. Cash flow per share growth is uninspiring which will restrain any meaningful growth in the dividend. The properties purchased by DOC in recent years had relatively low cap rates IMO.
B. Bought 20 GMRE at $10; 10 at $9.2; 10 at $8.81; 10 at $8.2 and Sold 10 at $11.22 :
Purchases:
Profit Snapshot (10 Shares) = +$12.17
Closing Price 4/17: GMRE $11.23 +$0.66 +6.24%
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
Website: Global Medical REIT
Portfolio – Global Medical REIT
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Property Portfolio as of 12/31/19:
Last Buy Trades: Item # 1.A. Bought 10 GMRE at $7.19 and 10 at $6.77-Used Commission Free Trades (3/8/18 Post)
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.C. Sold 50 GMRE at $10.01 (5/23/2017 Post); South Gent's Comment Blog # 7: Eliminated GMRE;
GMRE Trading Profits to Date = $376.15
1 Year Chart as of Date of Purchase (3/13/20):
Average Cost Per Share = $9.05 (40 shares)
Dividend Yield at $9.05 = 8.84 %
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/24/20 (after all share purchases)
Recent Stock Offering: Last December, GMRE sold 6.9M shares, which includes the greenshoe allocation, at $13. GMRE
Another offering completed in March 2019 was priced at $9.75.
This REIT is growing rapidly and is funding that growth in part with equity offerings. I would reasonably anticipate more offerings that will at a minimum temporarily knock down the share price. The issue is not the temporary price decline but whether the company is using the funds to make acquisitions benefiting the shareholders rather than just the external management company.
Preferred Stock: Global Medical REIT Inc. 7.5% Cumulative Preferred Stock Series A Overview I discuss starting a small ball buying program in Item # 2.A. below.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): Global Medical REIT Announces Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2019 Financial Results
GMRE reported adjusted FFO of $.21 per share, better than the consensus estimate of $.20 .
On 3/6/20, Compass Point raised its PT to $16 from $14.75 and Baird lifted its PT to $17 from $14. B. Riley downgraded GMRE on the same day to neutral while raising its PT to $16 from $15. Janney kept its buy rating and raised its PT to $15 from $14.5. All of the foregoing was in response to the earnings report released on 3/4 after the close.
Maximum Position: 100 shares + shares purchased with dividends
Current Position: 40 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
C. Added 1 ENB at $27.23; 1 at $26.21; 1 at $25.79; 1 at $24.9; 1 at $23.68 :
Closing Price 4/17: ENB $29.40 +$0.90 +3.16%
SEC Filings
Investment Center Dashboard - Enbridge Inc.
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Sold 8 ENB at $42.36 (2/19/20 Post)(profitably selling all shares bought with dividends)
I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing to add.
Item # 3.B. Sold 17 ENB at $40.21 (1/18/20 Post)
Item # 1.B. Sold 15 ENB at $37.61-Used Commission Free Trade (2/20/19 Post)
Item # 3 Sold 50 ENB at $39.03 (12/21/17 Post)
Sold 10 ENB at $40.14 (1/5/18 Post)
Recent Buy Discussions: Item # 3 Bought 2 ENB at $29.95 and 2 at $30.89-Used Commission Free Trades (3/29/18 Post)
Item # 2 Added 5 ENB at $32.28; 2 at $31.92; and 2 at $31.45-Used Commission Free Trades (3/15/18 Post)
Item # 2 Added 9 ENB at an Average Total Cost Per Share of $32.18 (3/15/18 POST)
Moving slowing in and out are standard small ball trading techniques.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 2/14/20
Dividends: Quarterly at C$.81 per share
Dividends and Common Shares - Enbridge Inc.
For U.S. citizens, the Canadian government will withhold a 15% tax from the payment when the stock is owned in a taxable account but not when the stock is owned in a retirement account. That is pursuant to the existing U.S-Canada tax treaty. The CAD amount will be converted into USDs for owners of ENB.
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): Enbridge Inc. Reports Strong Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2019 Results
Purchase Restriction: Changed from Small Ball Restriction to each subsequent purchase must lower my average cost per share.
Current Position: 28+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $31.47
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (3/12/20): 5 stars with a FV of US$44
Argus (2/19/20): Buy, raises PT to US$46 from US$44
S & P (3/3/20): 4 stars with a PT of US$47
I do not have access to the following reports:
On 4/8/20, J.P. Morgan upgraded ENB to overweight from neutral and cuts its PT to C$56 from C$57.
On 4/3/20, UBS kept its buy rating but cut its PT to C$50 from C$51.
On 3/31/20, TD Securities cut its PT to C$57 from C$62.
D. Added 1 D at $73.8; 1 at $71.96; 1 at $71; 1 at $68.53; 1 at $68; 1 at $60.6:
Closing Price 4/17: D $81.51 +$3.44 +4.41%
Investor Relations | Dominion Energy
D | Dominion Energy Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Bought 10 D at $74.9-Used Commission Free Trade (8/28/19 Post)
Current Position: 16 shares
Average Cost Per Share: $72.68
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Dividend: Quarterly at $.95 per share ($3.76 annually)
Dividend growth has been good for an electric and gas utility. Dividends & Splits | Dominion Energy
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.17%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 2/27/20
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): Dominion Energy Announces Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2019 Earnings - Feb 11, 2020
Adjusted: $988M, up from $592M in the 2018 4th quarter
Revenues were 33% higher due to higher residential sales.
Operating E.P.S. Guidance for 2020: $4.25 to $4.6
Broker Reports (available for review by Schwab customers):
Morningstar (4/8/20): 4 stars with a
Credit Suisse (2/18/20 ): Outperform with a $90 PT
Argus (3/16/20): Buy with a $87 PT
S & P (2/22/20): 4 stars with a $92 PT
E. Restarted Small Ball "Buying Program" in CS- Bought 10 at $7.68; 2 at $7.07; 10 at $7; :
Quote: CS | Credit Suisse Group AG ADR
Closing Price 4/17: CS $8.24 +$0.41 +5.24%
ADR Ratio: 1 to 1
Investor relations – Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse Group AG (ADR) Key Developments | Reuters
CS - Credit Suisse Group AG (ADR) Profile | Reuters
Last Round-Trip: Item # 3.C. Eliminated CS-Sold 50 at $13 (11/27/19 Post (profit snapshot = $73.73)-Item# 1 Bought 50 CS at $11.49 (10/11/19 Post)($1 IB commission per trade)
Current Position: 25 Shares
Average Cost Per Share = $7.24
Dividend: The dividend is usually paid on an annual basis. Due to pressure from regulators, the 2020 dividend will be paid in two semi-annual installments. Board of Directors publishes adjusted dividend proposal for the 2020 Annual General Meeting
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
Morningstar (3/31/20): 5 stars, narrow moat for wealth management business, FV estimate of US$17.
S & P (2/17/20): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $14. (a 3 star rating is inconsistent with that PT)
F. Added 2 JCAP at $13.8; 2 at $13.25; 2 at $12.8; 5 at $11.9; 5 at $11.53; 2 at $10.5; 2 at $9.5; 5 at $9.2; 2 at $13; 2 at $11.96 :
With all of those buys, I just went back over 100 shares after selling 50 at $20 and 10 at $20.05 (see below)
Quote: Jernigan Capital Inc. (JCAP)
Website: Jernigan Capital
SEC Filings
Closing Price 4/17: JCAP $12.34 +$0.40 +3.35%
I discuss buying shares in Jernigan's equity preferred stock in Item # 2 below.
Properties | Jernigan Capital (Self-Storage)
I interpret the downdraft in this stock to be largely based on concerns that many customers will not pay monthly storage fees and new customers will be hard to find. This stock has been about cut in half since I recently sold shares.
Management: Internal as of 2/20/20
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Sold 10 JCAP at $20.05 (2/5/20 Post); Item # 2.C. Sold 50 JCAP at $20-Highest Cost Lot (1/2/20 Post)
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.A. Bought 10 JCAP at $18.9 and 30 at $18.78 (10/19/19 Post); Item # 3. Bought 50 JCAP at 19.83 (7/27/19 Post)(this lot has been sold)
Dividend: $.23 per share ($.92 annually)
Jernigan Capital Announces Dividends for First Quarter 2020
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/31/20
Current Position: 101+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $16.1
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.71%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/2019): Jernigan Capital Reports Fourth Quarter Results; Introduces 2020 Guidance
Recent News: Jernigan Capital, Inc. Announces Agreement to Internalize External Manager The company reduced its quarterly dividend from $.35 per share to $.23. The internalization was consummated on 2/20/20.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain: 30 shares at $18.78 (10/9/19) This lot will be sold when and if it becomes profitable to so, which is the flip side of averaging down under the small ball trading rules.
Other Recent News:
Jernigan Capital Upsizes Credit Facility to $375 Million with Reduced Pricing, Extended Maturity and Additional Banks; Provides Liquidity and Business Updates (3/26/20)
Jernigan Capital Announces Acquisition of Developers’ Interests in Two Properties (2/18/20)
Jernigan Capital Announces Acquisition of Developers’ Interests in Seven Properties (2/12/20)
On 4/9/20, the KeyBanc analyst kept his buy rating but lowered the PT to $17.
G. Added 1 TRP at $40.26; 1 at $38.48; 1 at $34.2; 1 at $33 :
Quotes:
USD: TC Energy Corp. (U.S.: NYSE)
CAD: TC Energy Corp. (Canada: Toronto)
TC Energy — Operations — Natural Gas Map
TC Energy — Oil and Liquids
TC Energy — Power
TC Energy — Operations Maps
Closing Price 4/17: TRP $45.09 +$0.69 +1.55%
Current Position: 14 Shares
Average Cost Per Share: $45.98
Dividends: Quarterly, last at C$.81 per share
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/30/20
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Bought 10 TRP at $49.78 (9/25/19 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E. 12/31/19):
TC Energy reports record 2019 financial results
H. Added 2 STWD at $17.18; 2 at $16.91; 1 at $15.24; 1 at $10.36; 1 at $9.3; 1 at $8.74; 1 at $12.45:
Quote: Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD)
Website: Starwood Property Trust
Closing Price 4/17: STWD $12.46 +$0.78 +6.68%
SEC Filings
10 Year Chart: The chart reflects that serious problems are present which have not yet appeared in an earnings report.
Stock Information: Down 48.25% in the past year
On 4/13, Raymond James reduced its price target to $17.5 from $27 and maintained its outperform rating. The stock had decline from $26 in February to a $14.32 close on 4/13.
S & P Credit Report: Some of the issues are identified in an S & P report (3/26) downgrading STWD senior secured and senior unsecured debt. S & P notes correctly that that STWD has a lot of debt including $4.3B as of 12/31/2019 in a secured credit facility backed by commercial backed mortgage securities, residential mortgage securities and commercial real estate loans. Those securities have fallen in value, particularly in March due to chaotic market conditions that could have resulted in margin calls.
S & P downgraded the rating of the senior secured facility to BB- from BB. The BB rating on a senior secured facility already highlighted the risk. The senior unsecured debt was downgraded to B+ from BB-. Those are all junk ratings.
We will not know how significantly STWD portfolio was damaged by recent events until it reports its first quarter earnings and provides guidance on current conditions. The current price, particularly compare to the prices prevailing in February, reflect a consensus opinion that considerable damage was caused to STWD's portfolio with the future outlook remaining at best uncertain.
Moody's Credit Report (4/14/20): Moody's affirmed its Ba1 senior secured and senior unsecured at Ba3, but changed the outlook to negative. The outlook was changed to negative for several non-bank commercial real estate lenders: "Given Moody's expectation for deteriorating asset quality, profitability, capital and liquidity, the CRE sector is among those most affected by this credit shock" related to COVID-19.
Recent News: Starwood Property Trust Provides Liquidity Update ("the Company recently received the full repayment of its $379 million commitment in the construction loan for 424 Fifth Avenue, the former Lord & Taylor Building. The building was acquired by Amazon."). STWD claimed that it had $885M in cash with approved and undrawn financing lines of $8B as of 3/16/20
Starwood Property Trust Announces Authorization of $400 Million Share Repurchase Program
Last Sell Discussion Item # 1.A. Sold 10 STWD at $25.96 (2/16/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $47.74)-Item # 1.C. Bought 10 STWD at $21.19 (1/11/18 Post)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 4.B. Added 10 STWD at $19.4-Used Commission Free Trade(1/16/19 Post); Item 1.A. Added 5 STWD at $19.96-Used Commission Free Trade (2/19/18 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.48 per share ($1.92 annually)
The dividend announcements can generally be found in the earnings' press releases.
The yield at last Friday's closing price of $12.46 is about 15.41% based on a continuation of the $1.92 annual rate. That dividend yield suggests, based on a more normal dividend yield for this high risk stock, about a 30% to 40% cut in the penny rate to somewhere in the $.28 to $.36 range.
Current Position: 47+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $17.85
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/20/20 (shares purchased prior thereto)
Dividend Yield at $17.85 = 10.76 % (assuming no cut in the penny rate which is NOT the assumption being made in the current stock price)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain (excluding dividend reinvestments): 10 shares at $20.91 (1/4/2018), which will be sold when and if it becomes profitable to do so subject to exceptions.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19)
"The Company's fourth quarter 2019 GAAP net income was $171.9 million, or $0.60 per diluted share, and Core Earnings (a non-GAAP financial measure) was $139.5 million, or $0.47 per diluted share. These amounts include a gain on sale of the Company's Ireland property portfolio of $119.7 million and $60.1 million for GAAP and Core Earnings, respectively, or $0.41 and $0.20 per diluted share, respectively, and a GAAP and Core loss of $71.9 million and $70.6 million, respectively, resulting from the impairment of the Company's interest in a regional mall portfolio, or $0.25 and $0.24 per diluted share, respectively."
Starwood Property Trust Reports Results for the Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2019
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
I. Restarted REET-Bought 5 at $16.52:
Quote:REET | iShares Global REIT ETF Overview
Only Round-Trip: Item # 3.B. Eliminated REET-Sold 15 at $28.39 (12/18/19 Post)-Item # 4.B. Added 5 REET at $26.56 (6/29/19 Post); Item # 5 Bought 10 REET at $27.16 (6/19/19 Post)
Sponsor's Website: iShares Global REIT ETF | REET
Closing Price 4/17: REET $20.14 +$0.67 +3.44%
Expense Ratio: .14%
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Last 4 Quarterly Dividends = $1.45 per share
Dividend Yield at $1.45 Annual Rate/$16.52 TC = 8.78%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/20/20 (day after 5 share purchase)
2. U.S. Equity REIT Preferred Stocks:
I am not discussing purchases made in my Roth IRA accounts. Generally, the preferred stocks and exchange-traded bond purchases that are made in my taxable accounts are also made in one of the Roth IRA accounts, which is the case for the preferred stocks and exchange-traded bonds discussed in this post. The purchase amounts are also small.
A. Bought 10 GMREPRA at $21 and 5 at $16.88:
Quote: Global Medical REIT Inc. 7.5% Cumulative Preferred Series A Stock (GMREPRA)
Closing Price 4/17: GMRE-PA $23.83 -$0.50 -2.03%
Investment Category: Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, a sub-category of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Security: Prospectus
The prior sell was a 30 share lot sold at $24.84. Item # 1.A. (2/20/19 Post)
Last Ex Dividend: 4/14/20 (all shares bought prior thereto)
Average Cost Per Share: $19.63
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 9.55%
B. Bought 10 JCAPPRB at 20; 10 at $18; 10 at $17.69 and Sold Highest Cost Lot at $20.7 after Ex Dividend at $20.7:
Quote: Jernigan Capital Inc. 7% Cumulative Preferred Series B Overview
Closing Price 4/17: JCAP-PB $23.02 +$0.77 +3.46%
Investment Category:Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, as sub-category of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/31/20 (after purchases)
Profit Snapshot-Sold 10 shares at $20.7 (highest cost lot-used specific identification method) = +$6.99
Current Position: 20 Shares
Average Total Cost Per Share: $17.78, reduced from $18.52 before 10 share pare
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 9.84%
Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par on or after 1/26/23
Dividends: Quarterly and Cumulative
Change of Control Provision: Yes
Stopper Clause: Yes, enforces the preferred shareholder's superior claim to cash vs. the common shareholders. (see bottom of page S-26 and top of page S-27) In order to defer the preferred stock dividend, Jernigan would first have to eliminate the cash dividend to its common shareholders.
C. Bought 10 JCAPPRB at $17.47 (Schwab account):
Yield at $17.47 = 10.02%
See previous discussion.
3. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added 50 CPXPRE at C$14.2 ($C1 Commission) :
Quote: CPX-PE.TO
Current Position: 150 Shares
Prior Discussions: Item # 4.A. Added 50 CPXPRE at C$17.4 (12/4/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 50 CPXPRE at C$17.63 (10/30/19 Post)
Issuer: Capital Power Corp.
Par Value C$25
Dividends: Cumulative and Quarterly
Last Ex-Dividend Date: 3/17/20
Coupon: 3.15% spread to the 5 year Canadian Bond
Resets: Every 5 Years until redeemed at issuer's option
Last Reset: April 2018
Reset Coupon: 5.238% paid on C$25 par value
Current Yield at C$14.2 = 9.22%
Average Cost Per Share (150) = C$16.43
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 7.97%
CPX Preferred Stock Realized Gains: +C$895
Those gains were realized in other issues:
My last transaction in other CPX preferred stocks was to sell 100 CPXPRA at C$16.72. Item # 2.A. Sold 100 CPXPRA at C$16.92 (1/15/18 Post)(profit snapshot = C$670)-Item # 3 Bought 100 CXPRA at C$10.2 Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stocks Basket Strategy As Of 4/14/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha That one will reset in December 2020 at a 2.17% spread to the five-year Canadian bond. I do not have a position at the moment.
I also have a prior round trip in CPXPRC, realizing a C$225 gain. South Gent's Comment Blog # 8: Sold 50 CPXPRC at C$19.08 (bought at C$14.54. Item # 2 That one reset in December 2018 at a 3.23% spread to the five-year Canadian government bond.
With all of those buys, I just went back over 100 shares after selling 50 at $20 and 10 at $20.05 (see below)
Quote: Jernigan Capital Inc. (JCAP)
Website: Jernigan Capital
SEC Filings
Closing Price 4/17: JCAP $12.34 +$0.40 +3.35%
I discuss buying shares in Jernigan's equity preferred stock in Item # 2 below.
Properties | Jernigan Capital (Self-Storage)
I interpret the downdraft in this stock to be largely based on concerns that many customers will not pay monthly storage fees and new customers will be hard to find. This stock has been about cut in half since I recently sold shares.
Management: Internal as of 2/20/20
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Sold 10 JCAP at $20.05 (2/5/20 Post); Item # 2.C. Sold 50 JCAP at $20-Highest Cost Lot (1/2/20 Post)
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.A. Bought 10 JCAP at $18.9 and 30 at $18.78 (10/19/19 Post); Item # 3. Bought 50 JCAP at 19.83 (7/27/19 Post)(this lot has been sold)
Dividend: $.23 per share ($.92 annually)
Jernigan Capital Announces Dividends for First Quarter 2020
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/31/20
Current Position: 101+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $16.1
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.71%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/2019): Jernigan Capital Reports Fourth Quarter Results; Introduces 2020 Guidance
Recent News: Jernigan Capital, Inc. Announces Agreement to Internalize External Manager The company reduced its quarterly dividend from $.35 per share to $.23. The internalization was consummated on 2/20/20.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain: 30 shares at $18.78 (10/9/19) This lot will be sold when and if it becomes profitable to so, which is the flip side of averaging down under the small ball trading rules.
Other Recent News:
Jernigan Capital Upsizes Credit Facility to $375 Million with Reduced Pricing, Extended Maturity and Additional Banks; Provides Liquidity and Business Updates (3/26/20)
Jernigan Capital Announces Acquisition of Developers’ Interests in Two Properties (2/18/20)
Jernigan Capital Announces Acquisition of Developers’ Interests in Seven Properties (2/12/20)
On 4/9/20, the KeyBanc analyst kept his buy rating but lowered the PT to $17.
G. Added 1 TRP at $40.26; 1 at $38.48; 1 at $34.2; 1 at $33 :
USD: TC Energy Corp. (U.S.: NYSE)
CAD: TC Energy Corp. (Canada: Toronto)
TC Energy — Operations — Natural Gas Map
TC Energy — Oil and Liquids
TC Energy — Power
TC Energy — Operations Maps
Closing Price 4/17: TRP $45.09 +$0.69 +1.55%
Current Position: 14 Shares
Average Cost Per Share: $45.98
Dividends: Quarterly, last at C$.81 per share
 |
| Amounts in Canadian Dollars |
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Bought 10 TRP at $49.78 (9/25/19 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E. 12/31/19):
H. Added 2 STWD at $17.18; 2 at $16.91; 1 at $15.24; 1 at $10.36; 1 at $9.3; 1 at $8.74; 1 at $12.45:
Website: Starwood Property Trust
Closing Price 4/17: STWD $12.46 +$0.78 +6.68%
SEC Filings
10 Year Chart: The chart reflects that serious problems are present which have not yet appeared in an earnings report.
S & P Credit Report: Some of the issues are identified in an S & P report (3/26) downgrading STWD senior secured and senior unsecured debt. S & P notes correctly that that STWD has a lot of debt including $4.3B as of 12/31/2019 in a secured credit facility backed by commercial backed mortgage securities, residential mortgage securities and commercial real estate loans. Those securities have fallen in value, particularly in March due to chaotic market conditions that could have resulted in margin calls.
S & P downgraded the rating of the senior secured facility to BB- from BB. The BB rating on a senior secured facility already highlighted the risk. The senior unsecured debt was downgraded to B+ from BB-. Those are all junk ratings.
We will not know how significantly STWD portfolio was damaged by recent events until it reports its first quarter earnings and provides guidance on current conditions. The current price, particularly compare to the prices prevailing in February, reflect a consensus opinion that considerable damage was caused to STWD's portfolio with the future outlook remaining at best uncertain.
Moody's Credit Report (4/14/20): Moody's affirmed its Ba1 senior secured and senior unsecured at Ba3, but changed the outlook to negative. The outlook was changed to negative for several non-bank commercial real estate lenders: "Given Moody's expectation for deteriorating asset quality, profitability, capital and liquidity, the CRE sector is among those most affected by this credit shock" related to COVID-19.
Recent News: Starwood Property Trust Provides Liquidity Update ("the Company recently received the full repayment of its $379 million commitment in the construction loan for 424 Fifth Avenue, the former Lord & Taylor Building. The building was acquired by Amazon."). STWD claimed that it had $885M in cash with approved and undrawn financing lines of $8B as of 3/16/20
Starwood Property Trust Announces Authorization of $400 Million Share Repurchase Program
Last Sell Discussion Item # 1.A. Sold 10 STWD at $25.96 (2/16/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $47.74)-Item # 1.C. Bought 10 STWD at $21.19 (1/11/18 Post)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 4.B. Added 10 STWD at $19.4-Used Commission Free Trade(1/16/19 Post); Item 1.A. Added 5 STWD at $19.96-Used Commission Free Trade (2/19/18 Post)
The dividend announcements can generally be found in the earnings' press releases.
The yield at last Friday's closing price of $12.46 is about 15.41% based on a continuation of the $1.92 annual rate. That dividend yield suggests, based on a more normal dividend yield for this high risk stock, about a 30% to 40% cut in the penny rate to somewhere in the $.28 to $.36 range.
Current Position: 47+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $17.85
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/20/20 (shares purchased prior thereto)
Dividend Yield at $17.85 = 10.76 % (assuming no cut in the penny rate which is NOT the assumption being made in the current stock price)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain (excluding dividend reinvestments): 10 shares at $20.91 (1/4/2018), which will be sold when and if it becomes profitable to do so subject to exceptions.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19)
"The Company's fourth quarter 2019 GAAP net income was $171.9 million, or $0.60 per diluted share, and Core Earnings (a non-GAAP financial measure) was $139.5 million, or $0.47 per diluted share. These amounts include a gain on sale of the Company's Ireland property portfolio of $119.7 million and $60.1 million for GAAP and Core Earnings, respectively, or $0.41 and $0.20 per diluted share, respectively, and a GAAP and Core loss of $71.9 million and $70.6 million, respectively, resulting from the impairment of the Company's interest in a regional mall portfolio, or $0.25 and $0.24 per diluted share, respectively."
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
I. Restarted REET-Bought 5 at $16.52:
Only Round-Trip: Item # 3.B. Eliminated REET-Sold 15 at $28.39 (12/18/19 Post)-Item # 4.B. Added 5 REET at $26.56 (6/29/19 Post); Item # 5 Bought 10 REET at $27.16 (6/19/19 Post)
Sponsor's Website: iShares Global REIT ETF | REET
Closing Price 4/17: REET $20.14 +$0.67 +3.44%
Expense Ratio: .14%
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Dividend Yield at $1.45 Annual Rate/$16.52 TC = 8.78%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/20/20 (day after 5 share purchase)
2. U.S. Equity REIT Preferred Stocks:
I am not discussing purchases made in my Roth IRA accounts. Generally, the preferred stocks and exchange-traded bond purchases that are made in my taxable accounts are also made in one of the Roth IRA accounts, which is the case for the preferred stocks and exchange-traded bonds discussed in this post. The purchase amounts are also small.
A. Bought 10 GMREPRA at $21 and 5 at $16.88:
Closing Price 4/17: GMRE-PA $23.83 -$0.50 -2.03%
Investment Category: Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, a sub-category of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Security: Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Dividends: Cumulative, Non-Qualified and Paid Quarterly
Issuer Optional Call: On or after 9/15/22
Stopper Clause: Yes (top page S-20)
Change of Control Provision: Yes
I last sold GMREPRA at $25.87. Item # 1.B. Sold 70 GMREPRA at $25.87 (4/24/19 Post)(profit snapshot $208.36)-Item # 4.B. Bought 70 GMREPRA at $22.75 (1/13/19 Post)Stopper Clause: Yes (top page S-20)
Change of Control Provision: Yes
The prior sell was a 30 share lot sold at $24.84. Item # 1.A. (2/20/19 Post)
Last Ex Dividend: 4/14/20 (all shares bought prior thereto)
Average Cost Per Share: $19.63
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 9.55%
B. Bought 10 JCAPPRB at 20; 10 at $18; 10 at $17.69 and Sold Highest Cost Lot at $20.7 after Ex Dividend at $20.7:
Quote: Jernigan Capital Inc. 7% Cumulative Preferred Series B Overview
Closing Price 4/17: JCAP-PB $23.02 +$0.77 +3.46%
Investment Category:Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, as sub-category of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/31/20 (after purchases)
Profit Snapshot-Sold 10 shares at $20.7 (highest cost lot-used specific identification method) = +$6.99
Average Total Cost Per Share: $17.78, reduced from $18.52 before 10 share pare
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 9.84%
Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par on or after 1/26/23
Dividends: Quarterly and Cumulative
Change of Control Provision: Yes
Stopper Clause: Yes, enforces the preferred shareholder's superior claim to cash vs. the common shareholders. (see bottom of page S-26 and top of page S-27) In order to defer the preferred stock dividend, Jernigan would first have to eliminate the cash dividend to its common shareholders.
C. Bought 10 JCAPPRB at $17.47 (Schwab account):
Yield at $17.47 = 10.02%
See previous discussion.
3. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added 50 CPXPRE at C$14.2 ($C1 Commission) :
Current Position: 150 Shares
Prior Discussions: Item # 4.A. Added 50 CPXPRE at C$17.4 (12/4/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 50 CPXPRE at C$17.63 (10/30/19 Post)
Issuer: Capital Power Corp.
Par Value C$25
Dividends: Cumulative and Quarterly
Last Ex-Dividend Date: 3/17/20
Coupon: 3.15% spread to the 5 year Canadian Bond
Resets: Every 5 Years until redeemed at issuer's option
Last Reset: April 2018
Reset Coupon: 5.238% paid on C$25 par value
Current Yield at C$14.2 = 9.22%
Average Cost Per Share (150) = C$16.43
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 7.97%
CPX Preferred Stock Realized Gains: +C$895
Those gains were realized in other issues:
My last transaction in other CPX preferred stocks was to sell 100 CPXPRA at C$16.72. Item # 2.A. Sold 100 CPXPRA at C$16.92 (1/15/18 Post)(profit snapshot = C$670)-Item # 3 Bought 100 CXPRA at C$10.2 Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stocks Basket Strategy As Of 4/14/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha That one will reset in December 2020 at a 2.17% spread to the five-year Canadian bond. I do not have a position at the moment.
I also have a prior round trip in CPXPRC, realizing a C$225 gain. South Gent's Comment Blog # 8: Sold 50 CPXPRC at C$19.08 (bought at C$14.54. Item # 2 That one reset in December 2018 at a 3.23% spread to the five-year Canadian government bond.
4. Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Restarted the Aegon Hybrid AEB- Bought 5 at $13.33:
Closing Price 4/17: AEB $22.78 +0.49 +2.20%
Aegon Hybrids: Gateway Post
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities Technically, AEB is a junior bond but is classified as equity capital.
Last Transaction: Item # 1.A. Eliminated AEB-Sold 50 at $22.72 (2/9/19 Post)
Security Description: AEB is a hybrid security that pays quarterly "dividends" for a U.S. taxpayer at the greater of 4% or .875% above the 3-month Libor rate on a $25 par value.
3-Month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) Chart-St. Louis Fed
The minimum rate of 4% has been the applicable coupon since I first bought this security in 2008.
AEB's potential perpetual character makes it analogous to U.S. equity preferred stocks, but it is superior in Aegon's capital structure to equity preferred stocks.
The hybrids rank below all senior debt. Distributions have been treated as qualified dividends for U.S. taxpayers in the past, but would be classified as interest in European countries.
Quantumonline still shows the qualified rate as still being applicable for U.S. taxpayers.
Aegon may call this security at anytime now. The optional redemption would be at the $25 par value plus accrued and unpaid dividends.
Prospectus
Alternate to Libor: The Libor rates will end in 2021. The scandal-hit libor rate used to set mortgages will end in 2021
Prior Trade Discussions:
Item # 2 Sold 50 AEB at $25.23 (9/7/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $166.46)-Bought at $21.9 and discussed here
Item # 4 Sold 50 AEB at $21.28 (5/3/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $49.98)
Item # 2 Sold 100 AEB at $18.42 (10/4/11 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,142.51)
Item # 3 Sold 100 AEB at $18.2635 ROTH IRA-Average Total Cost $6.05 (9/19/11 Post)(profit Snapshot = $1,213.76)
Item # 4 Sold 50 AEB at $21.69 (10/11/2010 Post)(profit snapshot = $81.11)-Item # 3 Bought 50 AEB at $19.74 in Regular IRA (8/20/2010 Post)
Item # 2 SOLD 100 of 300 AEB at 19.72 (8/16/2010 Post)(profit snapshot 150 Shares at $772.04)
Buy of 50 AEB at $4.8 (2/23/2009)
Buy of 50 $5.5 (10/8/2008 Post)
Lowest Prices Paid: $4.8 and $5.5; Buy of 50 AEB at $4.8 (2/23/2009); Buy of 50 $5.5 (10/8/2008 Post)
Realized Gains to Date: $3,583.34
B. Restarted GMTA-Bought 10 at $18.21; 10 at $15.21:
Quote: GATX Corp. 5.625% Senior Notes due 2066 (GMTA)
Closing Price 4/17: GMTA $25.70 +$0.52 +2.05%
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Bonds: New Gateway Post
Sub-Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Sold 50 GMTA at $26.69-Used Commission Free Trade (8/3/2017)(profit snapshot= $222.84); Item # 2.A. Sold 40 GMTA at $25.23 (3/10/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $124.75); Item # 3.A. Sold 20 GMTA at $25.17 (2/19/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $44.25)
Issuer: GATX Corp.
GATX | GATX Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report (debt list starts at page 76)
Security: Prospectus
Senior Unsecured Baby Bond
Par Value: $25
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value on or after 5/30/21
Maturity Date: 5/30/66
Trades Flat
Next Ex Interest Date: 5/14/20
Average Cost = $16.66
Yield at $16.66 = 8.44%
5 Year Chart as of 3/20/20:
Credit Ratings as of 3/20/20:
GMTA Trading Profits to Date: $407.43
C. Started LMHA-Bought 5 at $18.92; 10 at $18 :
Quote: Legg Mason Inc. 6.375% Junior Subordinated Notes Due 2056 Overview
Closing Price 4/17: LMHA $25.59 +$0.40 +1.59%
Legg Mason is being acquired by Franklin Templeton which trades as Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN)
Franklin Templeton to Acquire Legg Mason When the merger is completed, then bond will become a BEN obligation.
The senior debt of Franklin resources is currently rated A2 by Moody's who reaffirmed the rating after the acquisition announcement. I do not see any rating for a BEN junior bond, but generally the junior would be 1 notch below the senior unsecured.
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Next Ex Interest Date: 6/11/20
Chart Since IPO:
Credit Ratings:
Security: Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Maturity Date: 3/15/56
Issuer Optional Redemption: On or after 3/15/31
Average Cost Per Share: $18.31
Yield at $18.31 = 8.7%
Deferral: As with many other junior bonds, interest may be deferred for up to 20 consecutive quarterly payments, with interest accruing at the coupon rate on the deferred payments and provided the issuer pays no cash dividends to the owners of junior securities (common and equity preferred stock) or uses cash to buy junior securities.
5. Short Term Investment Grade Corporate Bonds as an Alternative to MM:
Closing Price 4/17: GMTA $25.70 +$0.52 +2.05%
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Bonds: New Gateway Post
Sub-Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Sold 50 GMTA at $26.69-Used Commission Free Trade (8/3/2017)(profit snapshot= $222.84); Item # 2.A. Sold 40 GMTA at $25.23 (3/10/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $124.75); Item # 3.A. Sold 20 GMTA at $25.17 (2/19/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $44.25)
Issuer: GATX Corp.
GATX | GATX Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report (debt list starts at page 76)
Security: Prospectus
Senior Unsecured Baby Bond
Par Value: $25
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value on or after 5/30/21
Maturity Date: 5/30/66
Trades Flat
Next Ex Interest Date: 5/14/20
Average Cost = $16.66
Yield at $16.66 = 8.44%
5 Year Chart as of 3/20/20:
C. Started LMHA-Bought 5 at $18.92; 10 at $18 :
Closing Price 4/17: LMHA $25.59 +$0.40 +1.59%
Legg Mason is being acquired by Franklin Templeton which trades as Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN)
Franklin Templeton to Acquire Legg Mason When the merger is completed, then bond will become a BEN obligation.
The senior debt of Franklin resources is currently rated A2 by Moody's who reaffirmed the rating after the acquisition announcement. I do not see any rating for a BEN junior bond, but generally the junior would be 1 notch below the senior unsecured.
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Next Ex Interest Date: 6/11/20
Chart Since IPO:
Par Value: $25
Maturity Date: 3/15/56
Issuer Optional Redemption: On or after 3/15/31
Average Cost Per Share: $18.31
Yield at $18.31 = 8.7%
Deferral: As with many other junior bonds, interest may be deferred for up to 20 consecutive quarterly payments, with interest accruing at the coupon rate on the deferred payments and provided the issuer pays no cash dividends to the owners of junior securities (common and equity preferred stock) or uses cash to buy junior securities.
A. Bought 10 American Electric Power 2.95% SU Bonds Maturing on 12/15/22:
I discussed this purchase in a 3/19 comment.
Schwab's third-party service now values this bond at 102.0934, which creates at that price an unrealized gain of $526.54:
The last trade was at $102.32.
This purchase brings me up to 12 bonds. The other two bonds were bought in my Fidelity account: Item # 3.B Bought 1 American Electric Power 2.95% SU Bonds Maturing on 12/15/22 at a TC of 98.716 (1/30/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 1 at a TC of 98.613 (4/9/18 Post)
Issuer: American Electric Power Co. Inc. (AEP)
AEP SEC Filings
2019 AEP Annual Report
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/19
AEP SEC Filings
2019 AEP Annual Report
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/19
Bought at a Total Cost of 96.828 (includes $1 per bond Commission)
YTM at 96.828 = 4.191%
Credit Ratings:
B. Bought 2 State Street 2.55% SU Bonds Maturing on 8/18/20:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: State Street Corp. (SST)
STT | State Street Corp. Analyst Estimates
STT 2019 Annual Report
STT SEC Filings
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.486 (includes $1 per bond commission)
YTM at Total Cost = 3.863%
Bought at 99.386
C. Bought 2 IPALCO 3.45% Senior Secured Maturing on 7/15/20:
FINRA Page: Bonds Detail (prospectus linked)
The security for this bond was all of the common stock of Indianapolis Power & Light.
I received a notice last Tuesday that the issuer will redeem this bond early on 5/14/20.
There will be a tiny make whole payment associated with this optional redemption. The prospectus provides that no make payment is due only when the bond is redeemed within 1 month of maturity.
Credit Ratings:
The credit ratings are the lowest that I can recall for an electric utility's first mortgage bond. IPALCO Enterprises is a holding company that owns Indianapolis Power and Light ("IPL"). The security is IPL's common stock owned by IPALCO which in turn is owned by AES Corp.
AES 2019 Annual Report
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.872 (with $1 per bond commission)
6. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 Main Street Capital 5.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 5/1/24 and then Sold at 97:
Purchase:
Sell at 97:
Profit Snapshot: +$83.46
Main Street Capital is a BDC. The fact that it is internally managed and has been one of the better performing ones has not insulted its common stock and bonds from plunging in price due to credit concerns.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Bought at a Total Cost of 92.727
YTM at TC = 7.306%
Sold at 97
Proceeds at 96.9
YTM at 96.9 = 6.076%
Issuer: Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN)- Internally managed BDC
SEC Filings
MAIN 2019 Annual Report (capital resources discussion starts at page 69; debt discussed starting at page 171)
5 year financial results:
Main Street Announces 2019 Fourth Quarter And Annual Results
Credit Rating: FINRA has the S & P credit rating at BBB. S & P lowered its credit rating to BBB- on 3/24/20. The outlook is currently stable. The reasons for the downgrade include increases in non-accruals prior to the coronavirus pandemic and an expectation that the pandemic will increase credit losses and calls by borrowers for more capital. BDC funding will be more difficult as well.
Recent Issuer News:
Main Street Announces Increase in Commitments Under its Credit Facility (3/24/20)(from $705M to $740M)
Main Street Business and Coronavirus Update (3/18/20)
I am starting to trade BDC $1K par value bonds. I am nibbling on a few BDC senior unsecured baby bonds that trade on the stock exchange.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
YTM at 96.828 = 4.191%
Credit Ratings:
B. Bought 2 State Street 2.55% SU Bonds Maturing on 8/18/20:
Issuer: State Street Corp. (SST)
STT | State Street Corp. Analyst Estimates
STT 2019 Annual Report
STT SEC Filings
Credit Ratings:
YTM at Total Cost = 3.863%
Bought at 99.386
C. Bought 2 IPALCO 3.45% Senior Secured Maturing on 7/15/20:
The security for this bond was all of the common stock of Indianapolis Power & Light.
I received a notice last Tuesday that the issuer will redeem this bond early on 5/14/20.
AES 2019 Annual Report
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.872 (with $1 per bond commission)
6. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 Main Street Capital 5.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 5/1/24 and then Sold at 97:
Purchase:
Sell at 97:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Bought at a Total Cost of 92.727
YTM at TC = 7.306%
Sold at 97
Proceeds at 96.9
YTM at 96.9 = 6.076%
Issuer: Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN)- Internally managed BDC
SEC Filings
MAIN 2019 Annual Report (capital resources discussion starts at page 69; debt discussed starting at page 171)
5 year financial results:
Credit Rating: FINRA has the S & P credit rating at BBB. S & P lowered its credit rating to BBB- on 3/24/20. The outlook is currently stable. The reasons for the downgrade include increases in non-accruals prior to the coronavirus pandemic and an expectation that the pandemic will increase credit losses and calls by borrowers for more capital. BDC funding will be more difficult as well.
Recent Issuer News:
Main Street Announces Increase in Commitments Under its Credit Facility (3/24/20)(from $705M to $740M)
Main Street Business and Coronavirus Update (3/18/20)
I am starting to trade BDC $1K par value bonds. I am nibbling on a few BDC senior unsecured baby bonds that trade on the stock exchange.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
After reading through and reading links (then reading links that popped up from those links and wondering when I'd get myself to stop...)
ReplyDeleteI came up with one observation.
The short version is that the market can not climb much more from here. So I'll wait for lower opportunities to buy. When to buy depends as much on news as technicals & market sentiment. If it climbs, it gets to ATHs which will seem ridiculous to someone.
Longer version.
Looking at the chart, SnP's back up that .6% that's a common retracement (or golden triangle # or something that's meaningful.)
If the market keeps climbing from here, it will wind up at ATHs. That's where it's pointed and headed.
While all the arguments are that the CARE package & Fed & Gv't policy will have the economy's back, therefore stocks should be prices near where they were before. (Some much lower, but with rotation into others higher as live moves from outside world to in one's house.)
...my observation is that at some point, someone will look over at the parallel area of the chart. Realize it's at ATHs. Realize that's ridiculous compared to reality, and the market will come back down.
I don't know if it will trade in a range between here and ATHs (though I doubt it once a downtrend starts). Or if it will trade a little higher then a little lower than the 1/2 market. (Feels like a good balance of overenthusiasm and support/resistance points). Or once going down, will hesitance on the way down to half, then make it all the way to a re-test.
But to head up to ATHs, then stay there for months, in anticipation of a v-recovery seems unlikely.
Let's go to most optimistic and say there's a V-recovery with economy starting to open by May. This upward scenario requires the market to head to ATHs, hang out there for months, through rest of April, May, into June & July which would be better but still be economically impacted. If testing was ready now, I might believe this. It will take at least a month to get testing setup (at least). That hazy period, is bound to stop the market from hanging out at ATHs.
All the other scenarios are worse.
So I have one thing I feel certain about.
As I read through and through the links, a couple points got my attention.
ReplyDeleteMy one question left open while reading was how many bullish vs bearish articles are you coming across. I'm looking for if the boat is overloaded on one side.
I see both types. But this article's chart implies that there is heavy upbeat happening. A close look implies it's not as high as it can be, before a downturn.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-goldman-sachs-bullish-turn-is-bearish-for-stocks-2020-04-14
I'm not a big Hubbard fan, but his HSNSI indicator is interesting. I can't find it on his website.
FG also lists a few sentiment measures in his article that show the same thing.
The link to Cam Hui's https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-stock-market-is-nowhere-near-a-bottom-and-investors-can-expect-a-massive-hit-2020-04-13
is had several very solid arguments, that I find useful.
He makes the observation that outlook is still greed based. Bottoms happen when that's been washed out of the system.
One of the articles has a link to a twitter portfolio manager. There's two tweets with good macro points. They argue the market is overvalued. That's not that useful because prices are based on what the market thinks, not what it should think. Still, nice to see.
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1249150678049665025
https://twitter.com/RightWingClone/status/1249152532489867265
Somewhere looking at the charts on those threads, it dawned on me that up heads to ATHs and that's not going to hold up.
I find a lot of the arguments out there to be specious.
1) Using "what happened after" (this or that indicator) seem too statistically meaningless to be used for modeling.
2) The "this sentiment or % of money in cash" were the bottom for other crashes. However, this crash has a different timing and order, so that doesn't apply.
I probably have more, but I keep reminding myself to ignore all that stuff.
Bottomline, I plan to sell into whatever happens now. If I miss some climb, I have to talk myself into that being fine. I'm simply looking for safely low enough spots to get my money back into the market. Plus a few shorter term trades.
Thank you for the write up and the framework it provides!!!
Land: I would say that no one knows and a lot of people are guessing about how this turns out. The current situation is bleak. There are more fundamental and factual reasons to be pessimistic based on what is known now, with faith in science coming to the rescue being the primary grounding for optimism about the 3rd and 4th quarters.
DeleteWhat I am seeing is that testing is now underway in several manufacturing plants and the results are coming back showing widespread infections among the workers. There is a Tyson chicken plant located about 20 miles from my home where almost 100 tested positive:
https://www.newschannel5.com/news/nearly-90-coronavirus-cases-estimated-at-goodlettsville-tyson-plant
A similar problem was found in the Tyson plant in Waterloo, Iowa and in Washington state
after employees were finally tested.
Several pork plants operated by Smithfield have shutdown after a large number of employees tested positive.
So when these test results start to ramp up, the news is not going to be favorable. There are a lot of people working in plants in particular who are infected and spreading the infection in their communities and in the workplace, many of whom are asymptomatic. There are so far 644 confirmed infections in one Smithfield plant located in SD.
https://theintercept.com/2020/04/19/smithfield-foods-wisconsin-coronavirus/
An important lesson about the spread was taught in February with the Diamond Princess cruise ship. You put people together, and start with one guy who is infected, and then you have 700 or so infected people.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w
I think that lesson seems to be forgotten at times. This virus is very contagious and hideous in that carries can be asymptomatic.
I will probably quit buying stocks and will focus on selling some recently bought shares that are my highest cost lots. This is trifling stuff. Two examples can be found in this post involving DOC and GMRE.
I'm finally getting a chance to read the smithfield articles.
DeleteWho sells plexiglass?
There's a run on it. That's a stock I want. Hum?
Glad pork isn't a very high part of my usual diet so it doesn't produce an immediate conflict for me.
DeleteBut I eat chicken... no stories yet, but are the plants run any better? Then again, hard to eat chicken as much when it's not as stocked in the stores these days.
On Covid, there's a lymphoma drug (I may wind up taking), that's shown promise at treating the really sick.
ReplyDeleteI know patients of this medical team, and they are serious doctors. So this isn't a fluff article.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2020/04/13/exclusive-astrazenecas-calquence-shows-early-promise-for-covid-19-patients/#602eb5e94677
Doesn't change investing. But it provides something upbeat.
I should be selling but market isn't back at the recent highs for a few stocks. For others the "happy" seems like time to run, like VZ is climbing slowly into it's earnings report.
ReplyDeleteTXN is also improving into it's earnings report. I don't know if big investors know or suspect good reports. Or it's just random over-optimism.
The middling-happy of the day has me not selling yet. Put in a few orders for higher than what's likely.
I'm reacting to having been "burned" by recent sells too low. Probably the same as going down, it gets harder to keep buying in. Not a good reaction. Missing the top too, not a good reason.
Land: I looked this morning at the Fidelity Government Money Market, one of the two sweep accounts permitted by that broker, and the 7 day yield was at .01%. So, if I sell something in that account, it lands in that fund and then what I do with the proceeds. Earn .01% in that fund but for how long?
DeleteRegional banks stocks are outperforming SPX so far today.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
$34.32 +$0.34 +1.00%
Last Updated: Apr 20, 2020 at 1:11 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
S&P 500 Index
2,853.60 -20.96 -0.73%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx
It is possible that investors are encouraged that another relief package for small businesses is likely this week. Commercial bank loans made to those receiving government money are probably less likely to go sour, provided those businesses can reopen and return to somewhat normal operations within a few months.
So far today, I added a few shares of QID when the Nasdaq 100 turned positive. I have not bought or sold, a common stock or fund, nor do I have any open orders.
A few more days have passed since I posted that I should be selling even though off the top, but can't bring myself to.
DeleteLooks like I should have. Even though it was 1-2% off recent top, even with today's green, it's even more off that top. (But not low enough to buy more.)
TXN texas instruments beat strongly. 1.24 instead of .84 estimates. Stocks up about 3%, not very different from rest of the market. Down off the near highs. So wasn't worth the holding for this.
TXN is keeping production going, figuring on shelf life of their products while demand is down. So betting on either quick recovery, or that tech demand will stay strong during stay at home. Maybe that's not it's not rallying.
VZ earnings in 2 days.
Do you have a sense of how much the decay happens on the inverse ETFs over a few days, weeks, or month?
ReplyDeleteThere's always big warnings about it. I understand the concept, but not how much it matters.
I've never bought one for overnight.
Land: The double and triple short ETFs are potentially toxic since they do losing tracking after a day. The warning at Schwab for example says they are not intended to be held overnight.
DeleteI hold them longer. I will only take small positions and will buy in extremely small 1 to 5 share lots. So I start with the proposition that it is impossible to hurt myself with them even if the position went to zero.
For the most part, I only average down and will start to buy only after a huge rally which is questionable based on matters external to market dynamics (e.g. economy).
Most investors just need to say no to them IMO. I do not own enough for the positions to be an effective hedge, but I will feel better when and if the market tanks again and I have something going up in value.
If market's positive about small business loans, then IWM's doing a poor job of rallying on it. But it is holding it's own about 2 pts off the top.
ReplyDeleteMy go to place to look for bank yields. Haven't looked in a while. Have to check the info, it's usually right but not 100%. It's better than the popular one (can't remember it's name, oh right Bankrate or something like that.)
https://www.depositaccounts.com/
I use a few of the high yield accounts where you have to jump through hoops to get the rates. It covers some of my rainyday fund.
I am now realizing that buying bonds into the 'off' period would have given someplace to put the money while I waited for the market to either tank completely, or go back to stable VIX. The waits can be long, in a year or two (though usually there's more down in between.) Even at the bottom when stocks are a buy, I imagine bonds with good yields are easy to sell.
Land: March was a good month to buy investment grade corporate bonds. That is no longer the case.
DeleteHaving some bond market expertise is worthwhile developing so that future opportunities can be seized without having to go through a learning curve experience.
Some of the bonds that I bought last month are being called now by the issuers at premiums to their par value.
With the corporate bond calmed down, issuers are able to come to market with new offerings and are using the proceeds to retire early bonds that have higher coupons. The benefit to the corporations is that get rid of the short maturities when they have access to refinancing and lengthen the maturity schedule with the new bonds.
I discussed buying recently a Plum Creek Timber bond which is now a Weyerhaeuser (WY) obligation. WY just sold $750M of 4% notes maturing in 2030:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/106535/000119312520088690/d893714d424b5.htm
The proceeds will be use to redeem at a premium to par value the 4.7% 2021 Plum Creek Timber bond that I bought and a 9% bond maturing in 2021 (page S-10)
Short term yields on credit risk free securities are going to be close to nil for awhile. Maybe some firms will be offering some teaser rates that reduce the real return loss before taxes compared to what MM funds are paying now.
"Having some bond market expertise is worthwhile developing so that future opportunities can be seized without having to go through a learning curve experience. "
DeleteDefinitely on my (rather long) list. I've got a document started of how-tos. So it's something.
I have never seen anything like this:
ReplyDeleteCrude Oil WTI (NYM $/bbl) Front Month
-$29.40 -$47.67 -260.92%
Last Updated: Apr 20, 2020 2:27 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic?mod=home-page
Never crossed my mind to short oil. That would have been quite the play here.
DeleteSG,
DeleteI'm still grappling with the idea of how the federal government pays for all this. I think if you look at the Democratic platform, it looks like things like stepped-up basis will disappear for estate planning and probably our tax rates will go way back up.
I looked at how the Great Depression ended and was surprised to see articles on responsible spending after the Second World War. I always thought it was the stimulus from the government (I guess you would call that deficit spending), that caused the economy to revive.
I know you think this moves us closer to a debt crisis, but in the short run I wondered how you thought we could pay for all this,
or do we we just write it off the books if possible.
I saw certain videos on Hedgeye;
One of which claim that there was so much supply around the world for goods and services that the rise in money supply would not cause inflation.
So I'd like your opinion on this also
thanks
G: The federal government has no intention of paying off the debt. Old debt is paid off with new debt That is how it will work until it doesn't.
DeleteThe deficit this year will be close to $4 trillion, give or take a few hundred billion, and all of that will be paid for by new debt. Interest on that debt will be paid for as long as the U.S. exists as a solvent debtor.
There will come a time when the U.S. will not be able to sell enough new debt to retire the old debt and to finance new budget deficits. That will cause failed treasury auctions as well as a collapse in the USD and asset prices denominated in USDs.
Before that happens, the U.S. will be forced to pay higher interest rates due in part to a weakening in the USD and an unwillingness of lenders to buy such massive amounts of new debt at abnormally low interest rates. The interest on the debt will then quickly zoom way over $1 trillion per year. The annual interest payment on the debt will go over $600B in the current fiscal year ending 8/2021 with abnormally low rates.
https://treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm
There is and will be no political will to address this Day of Reckoning scenario through a combination of increased taxes and reduced spending. And we may have already reached the point that setting in motion meaningful fiscal responsibility would itself send the nation into a Depression. Before the pandemic, GDP growth was dependent on massive federal government deficit spending close to $1 trillion annually and a buildup up in spending borrowed money by U.S. households.
Nothing is being built (e.g. infrastructure) with the soon to be $3T stimulus program.
Instead the government is engaged in a massive transfer payment program that goes far beyond the Obama stimulus program which funded almost nothing that would last either.
All that is being done is to keep the nation from falling into a depression through government financed demand creation and helping small businesses survive.
So if that is successful, and it remains uncertain whether the virus will outlast the government's capacity to replace private demand with debt financed spending, there will be an economy left and a gigantic debt hole.
Both the Obama and Trump stimulus programs are unlike what happened during the Great Depression. FDR built stuff that is still in use today.
https://livingnewdeal.org/
I would note that the republicans did not vote for the Obama stimulus program passed in response to the Near Depression, even though it was about 1/3rd the size of the 2020 packages (including the one about to be passed) and more than 1/3 of the Obama stimulus program consisted of tax cuts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009
No republican voted for the Obama program in the House:
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/111-2009/h46
3 republican senators did vote for the bill including Arlen Specter who later became a Democrat. Susan Collins and Olivia Snowe from Maine voted for the bill, rounding out the sum total of 3 republicans voting for that stimulus bill when there was a Democrat President. The Democrats are saving Donald Trump, something the republicans would never do under the same circumstances.
To correct a statement in my prior comment, the 2020 stimulus packages, including the one about to pass, are about 4 times greater than the Obama 2009 stimulus package rather than 3 times greater.
DeleteThere's that myth of the indigenous tribe that counts 1, 2, 3, many.
ReplyDeleteAre we there yet?
Land:
Deletehttps://www.theguardian.com/education/2004/oct/21/research.highereducation1
If you are referring to U.S. government debt, the counting of it may no longer matter, just say it is a really big number and will grow parabolically until it can't.
Looks like there is a snag in the next stimulus package. The Democrats want money for testing which the states can not afford and Trump wants no part of making testing more likely since it will reveal a far greater problem than is known now and will consequently interfere with his reelection bid.
The latest snag, Dems want remote or proxy or somekindof we're not all in the room infecting each other voting. GOP wants to support Trump's fake-world visions.
DeleteAt least that's want I got out of a few skimmed articles. I'm having trouble understanding how GOP's convinced their staff to take the risk to be in person. I must be not understanding something. I must be.
Saw something about banks making 10Billion off the small business loan program.
Yep, I was referring to gvn't debt.
DeleteDonald is biting off his nose to spite his face. Yes, testing would show more. He could spin to be a hero of managing a really big pandemic. But the testing is what would get us out of it! So he'd be managing a positive quicker v-shaped recovery.
Not sitting on the sidelines in a split personality pretending he can protest - his very own policies.
The Plum Creek Timber SU bond which I referenced earlier will have a $33.8 per $1K par value bond make whole payment in addition to the principal amount and accrued and unpaid unpaid interest.
ReplyDeleteFor novice bond investors, it is important to understand the make whole provision which is a penalty attached to the issuer's exercise of its optional redemption right. The existence of that provision can also substantially impact the pricing of existing bonds where the Bond Ghouls have confidence in the credit risk, the coupon is meaningfully higher than existing rates for similar maturities, and the maturity is years away.
Exchange traded bonds do not have make whole provisions. Instead, the issuer can redeem at par, generally 5 years after the IPO. During a long period where interest rates are falling, the issuer will exercise that at par redemption right, leaving the owners with new money that can only be reinvested in similar bonds with lower yields.
In the same economic scenario, where rates are in a long period of decline, bonds issued with make whole provisions are unlikely to be called which has value to the owners who do not want their money back at an inopportune time for them.
Over the six months, I have seen more issuers willing to redeem notes by making make whole payments, but the furthest out so far was one maturing in 2024 where the premium payment to par was almost 10%. Going beyond 2021 for optional redemptions subject to make whole payments start to add up to some significant premium money so most issuers leave it alone.
The make whole provision is intended to pay the bond owner the present value of all of the interest rates payable from the early redemption date until the maturity date. The present value computation uses the yield of a treasury maturing at about the same time. So the discount rate applied to the sum of all remaining interest payments for corporate bond maturing in 10 years would be the ten year treasury yield which closed today at .63%. That is one slow discounting rate.
When you start discounting ten years of interest payments by .63% to arrive at a present value number, you are going to end up with a big sum that is so onerous that the issuer will not pay it. Consequently, say the investment grade corporate bond maturing in 10 years has a 4% coupon, it would be selling at a significant premium to par value since the bond owners are not concerned about an early call. The exchange traded bond, with the same maturity and coupon, would be selling near its par value when the issuer can call at its leisure at par value.
Have not heard of "make whole provisions".
DeleteIs there a specific way they're listed on the bond description?
This put me on a side distraction to go find and reopen various files, including my bond notes file... because windows inconveniently and bothersomely restarted my computer last night to update something and doesn't save the state to reopen into. I think I have updates off, but these seem to override that.
But file found, note added.
Land: Almost all $1K par value bonds traded in the bond market have make whole provisions. Since it is a penalty attached to the issuer's optional redemption right, it can generally be found under the heading "Optional Redemption" or words to that effect. It is not called a
Delete"make whole" provision, but that is how it operates when the issuer elects to redeem prior to maturity.
I have been trading $1K par value bonds issued by BDCs recently.
I mentioned buying and selling the Main Street Capital 2024 bond in this post. Item # 6.A.
I replaced that one today with another Main Street Capital senior unsecured bond that matures in 2022. The coupon is 4.25% with a 12/1/22 maturity.
I bought 2 at a total cost of 96.9, creating a yield to maturity (YTM) of 5.798%. The YTM assumes that MAIN will pay off the bond at maturity which would generate a $62 profit for those two bonds. The YTM adds that profit to the coupon payments to create what amounts to a total return number.
The prospectus has a make whole provision, see page S-7:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1396440/000104746917007165/a2233880z497.htm#cc41804_summary_of_the_offering
"We may redeem in whole or in part at any time, or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to the greater of (1) 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed or (2) the sum of the present values of the remaining scheduled payments of principal and interest (exclusive of accrued and unpaid interest to the date of redemption) on the Notes to be redeemed, discounted to the redemption date on a semi-annual basis (assuming a 360-day year consisting of twelve 30-day months) using the applicable Treasury Rate (as defined in "Description of the Notes") plus 40 basis points, plus, in each case, accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date."
Note what is being discounted to present value: both the principal amount and all remaining interest payments until the December 2022 maturity. And the discount rate which reduces that total to present value is the treasury maturing at about the same time + .4% (.22% for the 2 year treasury; .26% for the 3 year) or not much at all.
Even if MAIN could refinance at a lower rate, which it could not do now, it would probably be unwilling to do so given the penalty associated with the make whole provision. That gives the bond owner some assurance that the bond will not be called or, if called, the issuer will have to make the owner whole through this premium payment to par value. The provision basically shifts the interest rate risk associated with a declining interest rate scenario to the issuer, whereas an exchange traded bond would shift the risk in that scenario back to the owner after 5 years from the IPO date for most of them.
In a correctional facility in Ohio, 1828 inmates have tested positive for COVID-19 along with 109 staff members.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2020/04/19/1-800-inmates-marion-correctional-positive-coronavirus/5163285002/
Irrespective of whether it is a chicken or pork plan, a prison, or a nursing home, places where masses of people are congregate are going to be breeding grounds for the pandemic. That is going to be the result of more comprehensive testing, and it is something for investors to keep in mind rather than listening to Donald's spin.
The governor of Maryland, through the efforts of his Korean born wife, was able to get hold of test kits from that country and was criticized by Donald for doing so.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/20/21228817/trump-larry-hogan-coronavirus-testing-kits
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/maryland-coronavirus-testing-kits-south-korea/2020/04/20/d5d449a4-8311-11ea-a3eb-e9fc93160703_story.html
Donald is exhaustively sociopathic. He simply doesn't live in reality.
DeleteSociopaths make up worlds then get you to live in them with them. They do tend to be unable to tell you what's real and what's made up by them.
Donald is at a high level of that, something of an extreme.
I don't like sharing a world with him. I've been disgusted him since I was a kid and saw article spreads on how he was cheating on his 1st wife with his affair, and pushing it into her face. I was a kid then, and I knew that is what a horrible person does.
Turns out it got into the papers because he pretended to be his friend Barron and he'd call into the papers faking who he was to sell this story about himself.
At any rate, testing is finally getting onto the news. Am looking forward to finding out how near we are herd immunity yet.
Land: I wonder whether any of Donald's cult members will actually ingest disinfectants or use UVC light inside the body after Donald discussed today those potential cures.
Deletehttps://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-slammed-for-touting-sunlight-uv-light-bleach-as-possible-covid-19-treatments-during-briefing
Some will. Stunningly enough.
DeleteI just realized, some will use hydroxychloroquine, because it has chlorine in it (it's name). Now that I look at it, I suspect chlorine came up out of Trump noticing it in the name. I'm getting short of breath just thinking about that.
Imagine if he starts claiming his orange skin product is protecting him? They'll all be easy to spot.
Land: After Doctor Don's remarks, the manufacturer of Lysol felt compelled to issue a warning about drinking this product.
Deletehttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/lysol-manufacturer-warns-against-internal-use-after-trump-comments-n1191586
The Trumpsters may not yet realize that Doctor Don's M.D. is in B.S.. Admittedly he is the world's leading practitioner of B.S. which gives him carte blanche in TrumpWorld to render opinions on all matters relating to medicine and all scientific disciplines.
It is hard to believe why the doctors have not yet come to realize that the proper course of treatment is to open up the chest cavity, bombard the lungs with UVC rays which will kill the coronavirus and lung tissue (and the patient) and then, if the patient is still alive, dose the lungs with isopropyl alcohol which will surely kill whatever COVID-19 remains after the UVC bombardment and any patient that managed to survive it.
Or, my suggestion would be to eat chocolate brownies while drinking a strawberry milkshake rather than following Doctor Don's suggestion. I did that when I first heard about COVID-19; and I do not have an infection which proves in TrumpWorld that brownies and strawberry milkshakes are the antidote for Covid-19.
As to Donald's drug of choice, hydroxychloroquine, I only known that the active ingredient is hydroxychloroquine sulfate with a bunch of inactive ingredients. I barely made it out of high school chemistry class.
I am aware that a Trumpster died after ingesting an aquarium cleaner that contained this compound (he was able to read the label) but using a different formulation which was poisonous to humans.
Oy. I just saw that lysol warning.
DeleteWe have to issue warnings that children who can read know are on package labels, when the "president" speaks to the nation.
"Admittedly he is the world's leading practitioner of B.S. "
Well that is true. He is the most beautiful, people tell him the best, at that.
"" eat chocolate brownies while drinking a strawberry milkshake rather than following Doctor Don's suggestion. ""
I used raspberry shakes. So I can add definitely since I don't have covid, that that works too. I have frozen raspberries on my shopping list. I add sugar and soymilk. Quite nice.
""after ingesting an aquarium cleaner that contained this compound""
That explains while aquariums were being mentioned on twitter. I wasn't very clear what they had to do with covid and trumpites. My power of guessing didn't lead me to this insight.
There is a 1950s treatment using ultravoilet light. Remove from body and it kills problem cells. My concern is whether 1950's also created cancerous changes with UV light designed to purposely change cells in unknown ways. I also learned this week (pre-trump) of someone who helped a post-viral neurological condition, using near infared light. It's a known treatment apparently, though I doubt the dangers are studied. Of course it is not ultraviolet light, which scientists amazingly enough already have discovered - we need sunblock for.
It is time for breakfast. I think I'll have a morning brownie. I want to stay healthy. (I have a great brownie mix, ooey gooey is in it's name. But I've been holding off. If I make it, I'll eat it all. And not in a slow month-long fashion. So...)
Typo: remove blood from body and shine ultraviolet light.
DeleteS&P 500 Index 2,791.00 + 54.44 +1.99%
ReplyDeleteLast Updated: Apr 22, 2020 at 10:41 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx?mod=home-page
The current SPX level is higher than the 3/3/19 level. As I recall, and my memory is not as good as it use to be, that was before the pandemic and the widespread shutdowns.
That observation, which is admittedly simple minded, caused me this morning to start talking to my computer screen, which some may argue is not a good sign but possibly better than most people's mental state after 40+ days of house arrest.
My comment, spoken out loud, was "Hey Stock Jocks, has anyone noticed that there is a recession yet".
Some of the numbers that will be reported for the second quarter will be the worst since the government started to compile statistics on the U.S. economy.
The consensus opinion remains that a robust recovery will soon resume, starting no later than the third quarter, with the second quarter being nothing but a hiccup in the blue skies until the end of days scenario.
Congress is certainly throwing a lot of money at the current problem, and there is talk of discussions starting- with bipartisan support- of even another round.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/battle-heats-up-for-phase-four-coronavirus-relief-bill/ar-BB131P4E?li=BBnb7Kz
Putting aside the long term negative ramifications of a $4T to $5T federal government budget deficit this year, the size of the federal government stimulus does make it more likely that second half recovery will occur assuming COVID-19 is not running amuck throughout the U.S.
You've just started talking to your computer? You may be behind the times for during a pandemic.
DeleteSPY is not at ATHs. It's not at near highs of 284. It is less than march 3rth which was $300. (I had to go look. Which itself tells something that I had to look, not knew of course it's below.) It was last at current prices on March 10th. Yep, while we were first becoming aware of the pandemic need for shutdown.
If the market climbs more - that will work - I'll be able to get out of some stocks.
Maybe the market is forward looking properly to what values will be in 3rd, 4th quarters after economy starts up. I find that hard to swallow emotionally. Logically the stimulus can not fill in the US economy for 2 quarters. It helps but really, all of it, to put prices back up high? That assumes no 'negative' additional happenings, like McConnell getting covid or some other unexpected event.
What's happening is that we're in the *exuberance* stage of a bull market. With a black swan economic event. So the bear result isn't acting like a bear. We're still in a bull by investor's expectations.
This time is different that way. Big question is how to play it.
Not doing much with stocks now. Waiting to get to one of the extremes, up or down. Not this working off one's bull or bear views in the middle place.
ReplyDeleteWas very busy yesterday. There's a medical problem I dealt with years ago, that I lobby for. Advocacy group organized it virtually yesterday. I was initially assigned meeting with one rep for my district. Innocently asked if that was accurate... so they decided to assign me to another 5-6 meetings to help out on a few states. I wound up with the Tennessee team! Learned stuff. I didn't know anything about Vanderbuilt before, nor that it's top league facility. Nor that the Tenn delegation has a lot of medical expertise on it (so the Rep's staffer said.)
I didn't miss anything in the market though while doing that.
Land: My much older brother graduated from Vanderbilt when LBJ was still President. When he started the annual tuition was $1,000.
DeleteHealthcare is big deal in Nashville.
https://healthcarecouncil.com/nashville-health-care-industry/
HCA, which was my first stock purchase back in 1968/69, started in Nashville and is still based here.
Many publicly traded healthcare businesses, including REITs, are based in this area.
I had no idea Nashville is a healthcare center. That is very cool. In all the medical stuff I've dealt with, I guess I haven't heard because I've been driving distance to northeast / midatlantic, so sent to those places.
DeleteI bet now I'll come across names of experts, who are based in Tennessee.
Tuition of $1000. Must have seemed like a lot back then. I remember 5c candy bars. Now $1.10.
My visit through Tennessee was on a motor home trip through the Appalachian mountains with family growing up. It was lovely and one of the memorable parts of the trip (that went down the length of part of the country). We met people and wandered around, and heard stories, and saw lots of great scenery. It wasn't really southern or deep southern. Had a personality all it's own.
I see HCA on the link. No wonder you've been comfortable with those industry type stocks.
This exuberance feeling... looking at the screen and it seeming disconnected from the distress of the recession's existence....
ReplyDeletedid that feeling exist as well *AFTER the first crash* in 2007/08. The exuberance existed during the initial start of a slide, but did it continue past that first big slide and when recession was an unavoidable idea?
Did it exist that late in the 2008 cycle / changes? Or did the exuberance end, earlier last time?
Land: The stock market was in a slow slide starting in November 2007 through August 2008. There were intermittent rallies during the slide but most investors were still optimistic about the future until Lehman failed in mid-September 2008. The real despair started thereafter and continued into early March 2009, when the consensus had become "it is bad, it is going to get worse and will never get any better." It takes a lot to burst the optimism bubble that builds up after a long secular bull market trend.
DeleteThe Stock Jocks still see declines now as buying opportunities with only a few dark clouds obscuring a blue sky and those clouds will soon disappear and so it is believed at the moment. It does not have to make any sense and that view requires all current information to be discounted into immateriality. It is the Stock Jock's vision thing which is frequently right and occasionally seriously delusional.
But the current optimism can be snuffed out with cold hard facts such as a second wave of infections starting in the fall that are worse than the current wave, or consumers fail to open their wallets in sufficient numbers when businesses do reopen, which is certainly possible. If movie theaters and restaurants opened today, next month or in early summer, will any of them be able to turn a profit? I suspect demand will be far below pre-pandemic levels for almost a year from now, possibly much longer depending on whether the virus cooperates with the reopening push.
I do not recall an instance when investors remained so bullish at the start of a really bad recession whose duration and after shocks are not knowable.
The long term bull market that started in August 1982 and ended in March 2000 had headwinds at the beginning which, as I recall, including a recession, but stocks entered that period at levels that existed in the late 1960s. Valuations were already substantially depressed which is not the case now.
Even though interest rates and inflation were still high in August 1982, they were falling and the Stock Jocks reached a consensus opinion then that the problematic inflation problem, which has caused a 16 year bear market in both bonds and stocks, had been defeated by the Volcker FED which turned out to be the correct long term prediction.
""do not recall an instance when investors remained so bullish at the start of a really bad recession whose duration and after shocks are not knowable.""
DeleteIt sounds like a combination. In 2008 it took a while to burst the bubble same as now (assuming it needs bursting). But also that the market was going down then, while now the optimism level is unusual even for that early 2008 holding onto optimism.
Valuations aren't low now. I can see taking more chances in a bear to bull shift when they are, like 1982. That was precedent of the market then.
Well the wall of worry is back in place for this rally/or whatever it is.
Looking at the charts, market went up to the .667 level. Now is bouncing along. it looks like big movements because of the 3% per day moves. But it's just bouncing right at that resistance level.
I'm beginning to get ancy. Fear of missing out, and also frustration that it's not lower and sensibly priced to get deals. I'm guessing that's a sign that the market will make a move soon, one way or the other.
So Intel beat strongly - and is down 7%. I'm down $300 from where I was during the day. Pundits are saying it's due to strong beat but washy guidance. Very interesting was a comment that it was priced for the "new normal." (so the washy guidance was bringing it down.) Another that it's up 10% in the crisis so needed to let out air (of 7%??).
ReplyDeleteI think that gives insight into how investors (funds managers, not retail) are thinking and buying into this market. If I'm reading this correctly, they're now thinking of this state as "the new normal" and judging stocks as strong or weak *within this state.* So they continue to buy happily and do their "job" judging whether a stock is strong or weak relative to the market (not that the economy matters to it.) So that weak guidance was actually news to them, rather than what they'd been pricing in all along.
The 7% down on a 10% rise and earnings beat, also says that the market's rise wasn't *consciously* anticipating a V-shaped 4th quarter recovery and therefore comfortably holding this price waiting for that recovery. If it had been anticipating, the earnings beat would bode well for post-corona business potential. Instead they priced it up, but wanted to let out most of that air now that the company added the real world projections in a crisis. Were they were pricing it not expecting weak guidance but expecting strong forward guidance??
There's a lot of assumption in what I'm writing. But that one phrase might explain the current market's pricing. They simply optimistically think things are going to normal again sometime, and are buying and selling as though that's the current world, with no thought to the trough we're in (and entering). With so little thought, that mention of it in earnings reports is a surprise?
I haven't been savvy enough to pay much attention to other earnings. Is this pattern showing up there too?
The market's going to keep buying this way. So question is whether the downside of the crisis will effect their awareness and therefore brings down prices, before the crisis is over and the crisis "never mattered much" and they were "right."
That's my theorizing for the day.
There's some thought that apple's talking about putting out mac chips, but pundits thought that too vague a rumor to matter much. Other chips and tech are down too, over Intel's forward guidance (I assume.)
Land: I have periodically read stories about Apple replacing Intel's chips with its own chips. I would assume that will happen. The only question is when. Bloomberg ran a story that Apple would be replacing Intel chips in the MACs starting in 2021.
Deletehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/apple-aims-to-sell-macs-with-its-own-chips-starting-in-2021
I do not currently have a position.
Intel down 5% on a grand beat.
DeleteVerizon beat too, but reduced or removed guidance and didn't beat on revenue. Strong balance sheet I hear. So intitally up 1.40%, but since down .2-.4%
So I guessed right that earnings would be strong, but didn't guess right to keep waiting for post-earnings rally or same level.
Crammer's blaming Intel on Swan's not handling the call well. It's now down 2.7% instead of the prior 5 & 7%.
DeleteMaybe there's something to that.
It's been another odd day in the market. For all that climbing it's not that high compared to other climb days. Nothing's high enough to prompt switch to sell mode.
DeleteI imagine market's climbing away over the stimulus package signed. If it is, small caps aren't getting a boost out of it.
SPX crossed back over 50day. So maybe bullish.
Intel is now down .5%. So someone decided the reporting wasn't so bad. I missed what the trigger for change of views was.
Instead LAZ is now down 9%. Looks like it's off a sell recommendation.
Earnings is coming April 30th everywhere else. Ameritrade has it listed as coming April 23rd. I've written them asking.
While Laz is down 50% for me, I originally put in $1k. Never did add to it. Too much debt. Nice yield, as long as it can survive whatever's coming.
Energy stocks keep climbing as oil's down. There were reports of car sales improving. Hasn't helped Ford at all. Plus Georgia and a few states "opening up" and giving their protestors the "freedom" they so desire. I hear their guns will protect them from the virus. Maybe anticipation of more oil use?
Land, My observation about this last week, which I have written for tomorrow's blog post, is that no amount of bad news can shake the vision of a robust second half recovery that will continue through 2021 after Donald's reelection, though some companies will be left behind and some will not make it to the promised land.
DeleteIt is important to keep in mind that stocks represent an ownership interest in a going concern that hopefully will grow and be around for a long time.
The value of that interest is not calculated by the bad results for one or two or even several quarters when those results are due to conditions external to the company which is the case now and the company is likely to recover in full.
"""The value of that interest is not calculated by the bad results for one or two or even several quarters when those results are due to conditions external to the company which is the case now and the company is likely to recover in full. """
DeleteThat's a good description.
The assumption is that a lasting recession won't happen. That seems valid, as possible.
Right now the market's not moved up. It's in a narrow range for a week now. I'm waiting for it to make a move.
I'm starting to recant on my goal of selling into a breakout upward. That view of climbing and that was the bottom, is needed by many investors, in order for some rattling news to trigger more selloff.
Wonder if the election stops seeming like a Trump win, will the market care?
I've heard that people have already tried swallowing things or at least called to see if it's a treatment.
Best article on disinfectants. FOX included his words all the way through.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/media-erupt-over-trump-comments-on-disinfectant-heres-what-he-said
Land: For reasons that I have trouble explaining, I watched Donald's spiel on using UVC light and disinfectants inside the body live and later watched it again on tape. He was serious without question. He claims now that he was being sarcastic which is just another lie that is contradicted by the video.
DeleteDr. Birx's reaction is classic:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/dr-birx-goes-viral-reaction-trump-s-injection-comments-n1191841
She really tries so very hard to be nice when confronted with Donald idiotic statements.
Have you seen this version? Doesn't require listening to him again.
DeleteShe is trying so hard. Would it be wiser to just walk out on him?
https://twitter.com/SentionautX/status/1253527027157807105?s=20
Let's say he was being sarcastic. He wasn't. And he's used that excuse post-horrible-behavior before. So he knows it's a convenient lie. This can be shown.
So if he had been sarcastic, then he's purposely make USA look like we'd elected a moron on the world stage. That makes him less of a moron?...No.
I appreciated this article:
"By reframing Trump's incoherent, inaccurate ramblings as bland political copy, journalists are carrying water for the president | Media Matters for America"
https://www.mediamatters.org/coronavirus-covid-19/reframing-trumps-incoherent-inaccurate-ramblings-bland-political-copy
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/04/adx-argd-bmoprsca-bud-cube-emp-pbct-pfe.html