Economy:
Housing Market Reaches Record-High Home Price and Gains in March
How the Biden capital gains tax proposal would hit the wealthy
Global Covid Cases Hit Weekly Record Despite Vaccinations - Bloomberg (4/18/21)
New Covid variant shows signs of antibody resistance, more severe illness in young people
Biden economy and stock market have defied Trump predictions of doom - The Washington Post
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Markets and Market Commentary:
S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 4/23/21:
TTM GAAP: 42.7
Estimated Forward 12 month Non-GAAP: 23.61
Dividend yield: 1.39%
Sourced: P/E & Yields
S&P 500 Trailing P/E Ratios-Yardeni Calculations (Figure 2 shows trailing S & P 500 P/E ratios using GAAP earnings since 1978; the service used by the WSJ is Birinyi and he arrives at higher P/E numbers than Yardeni)
Shiller PE Ratio = 37.56
Shiller PE Ratio - 150 Year Chart | Longtermtrends
Market Cap to GDP-The Buffett Indicator-Updated Historical Chart | Longtermtrends
The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: March Update - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Priced in? Stocks that top estimates are falling during this earnings season (4/21/21)
Earnings Owned Stocks:
AT&T (T) Reports First-Quarter Results (E.P.S. at $1.04; adjusted E.P.S = $.86 with consensus at $.778 according to Fidelity; revenues = $43.9B; free cash flow at $5.9B; HBO and HBO MAX 2.7M subscriber adds; total net adds in wireless = 3.6M; 2021 adjusted E.P.S. guidance stable with 2020 with free cash flow in the $26B range)
BCB Bancorp, Inc. (BCBP) Earns $7.1 Million in First Quarter 2021; Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend of $0.14 Per Share (E.P.S. at $.40 vs. consensus at $.353 per Fidelity)
Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN) Announces First Quarter Results And Narrows 2021 Guidance (FFO = $60.2M or $.35 per share: "98.9% of total cash-based rent due has been received from our tenants during the first quarter 2021, which represents a 99.1% collection rate from our office tenants"; FFO guidance for 2021: $1.33 to $1.41)
Citizens and Northern (CZNC)(Sourced from multiple SEC Filings Exhibits 99.1; 99.2 and 99.3)(E.P.S. at $.55 with consensus at $.45; NPA ratio at 1.07%;NIM= 4% juiced by accretion and amortization of purchase accounting adjustments; Efficiency ratio = 57.59%; total risk based capital ratio = 18.15: tangible book value per share = $15.24)
Ericsson (ERIC) reports first quarter results 2021 (Net income of SEK3.2B; net sales = SEK49.8B; Diluted E.P.S. at SEK.96; sales adjusted for comparable units and currency grew by 10% YoY; "gross margin excluding restructuring charges improved to 42.9% (40.4%) with margin improvements in all segments despite lower IPR licensing revenues. Reported gross margin improved to 42.8% (39.8%); EBIT "excluding restructuring charges improved to SEK 5.3 b. (10.7%) from SEK 4.6 b. (9.3%) YoY driven by Networks"; consensus EBIT was SEK5B; USD E.P.S. consensus at $.138 according to Fidelity; SEK = Swedish Krona, SEK / USD Currency Chart. Swedish Krona to US Dollar Rates; response on 4/21: ERIC US$14.34 +$0.80 +5.91%)
Fifth Third (FITB) Announces First Quarter 2021 Results (Diluted E.P.S. = $.93, consensus at $.689 according to Fidelity; Net Income = $674M; Efficiency Ratio = 63%; NIM = 2.62%, down from 3.8% in 2020 1st Q; ROA = 1.38%; ROE = 13.1%; ROTE =16.8%; Charge Off Ratio = .27%; NPA Ratio= .72%; tangible book value per share = $22.6; total risk based capital ratio = 14.8%)
First Horizon Corporation (FHN) Reports First Quarter Net Income Available to Common Shareholders of $225 million, or EPS of $0.40; $284 million, or $0.51, on an Adjusted Basis and more complete SEC Filing (Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.51 with consensus at $.373 according to Fidelity; special items were largely related to FHN's acquisition of Iberiabank; NIM at 2.63%, down from 3.16% in the 2020 1st Q.; adjusted efficiency ratio = 57.5%; adjusted ROA = 1.4%; adjusted ROTE = 20.15%; NPL Ratio = .67%; charge off ratio = .06%; total capital ratio at 12.83%; loan to deposit ratio at 80.09%)
F.N.B. Corporation (FNB) Reports First Quarter 2021 Earnings (GAAP E.P.S. = .28, consensus at $.257 according to Fidelity; NIM = 2.75%, down from 3.14% in 2020 1st Q; efficiency ratio = 58.67%; ROE = 7.62%; ROTE = 14.66%; ROA = 1%; tangible equity to tangible assets = 7.36%; tangible book value per share = $7.06, down from 7.36% in 2020 1st Q; Coverage Ratio = 362%; Non-performing loans / loans and leases, excluding PPP loans (non-GAAP) = .68%; Charge off Ratio = .13%; loan-to-deposit ratio was 84.1% at March 31, 2021, compared to 87.4% at December 31, 2020.)
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Reports 2021 First-Quarter Earnings (E.P.S. at $.48 with consensus at $.347 according to Fidelity; net income at $532M; NIM at 3.48%; efficiency ratio = 57%; ROA = 1.76%; ROE = 18.7%; ROTE = 23.7%; charge off ratio = .32%; NPA Ratio = .68%; tangible book value per share = $8.64; "First-quarter results were favorably impacted by a $144 million positive mark-to-market of interest rate caps within the hedging program, $60 million of negative credit provisioning related to the improving economic outlook, and $45 million of accelerated accretion from Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan forgiveness, partially offset by $21 million of costs related to the pending TCF Financial acquisition."; the $144 mark-to-market referenced above juiced NIM)
IBM Reports 2021 First-Quarter Results (Operating E.P.S. at $1.77, consensus at $1.632 according to Fidelity; GAAP E.P.S. from continuing operations = $1.06; "Revenue of $17.7 billion, up 1 percent (down 2 percent adjusting for currency); Total cloud revenue of $6.5 billion, up 21 percent (up 18 percent adjusting for divested businesses and currency); net cash from operating activities of $4.9 billion, up $0.4 billion; adjusted free cash flow of $2.2 billion, up $0.8 billion; Debt reduced by $5.1 billion since year end 2020")
KeyCorp (KEY) Reports Record First Quarter 2021 Net Income Of $591 Million, Or $.61 Per Diluted Common Share (E.P.S. of $.61 with consensus at $.479 according to Fidelity; Net Income = $591M; NIM = 2.61%, down from 3.01% in the 2020 1st Q; ROTE = 18.25%; ROA = 1.44%; Charge off ratio = .46%; NPA Ratio = .78%: NPL Ratio = .72%; Coverage Ratio = 222%; tangible common equity to tangible assets =7.5%; branches = 1,068; cost of total deposits = .06% down from .62% in the 2020 1st quarter)
Kinder Morgan (KMI) Increases Dividend 3 Percent and Raises 2021 Guidance (E.P.S. at $.62, consensus at $.24 per Fidelity; DCF per share = $1.02 ; "For 2021, KMI now expects to generate net income attributable to KMI in a range of $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion, declared dividends of $1.08 per share, a 3% increase from the 2020 declared dividends, DCF in a range of $5.1 billion to $5.3 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA in a range of $7.6 billion to $7.7 billion. KMI also now expects to end 2021 with a Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio in a range of 3.9 to 4.0.")
Lockheed Martin (LMT) Reports First Quarter 2021 Results (E.P.S. = $6.56, consensus at $6.31 according to Fidelity; raises 2021 E.P.S. guidance to $26.4-$26.7 from $26-$26.3; total net sales = $16.258B, slightly below the consensus at $16.33B)
National Bankshares, Inc. (NKSH) Reports First Quarter Earnings (E.P.S. = $.74 with consensus at $.62 according to Fidelity; net income of $4.77M)
Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) Reports First Quarter 2021 Results (E.P.S. = $.92, consensus at $.688 according to Fidelity; NIM 3.38% from 3.73% in the 2020 4th Q. due in part to lower accretion income; efficiency ratio at 60%; ROA = 1.4%; Covid related "loan deferrals fell to $7.5 million at March 31, 2021 from $18.2 million at December 31, 2020 and $239.3 million at June 30, 2020"; Charge off ratio = .01 excluding PPP loans; loss provision reversal of $1M; NPL Ratio- .48%; Coverage Ratio = 192%; total risk based capital ratio = 16.3%; loan growth of 13% annualized excluding PPP loans; total risk based capital holding company = 16.3%; tangible book value per share = $20.59; deposit costs = .23%; maintained quarterly dividend at $.18 per share)
Union Bankshares (UNB) Announces Earnings for the three months ended March 31, 2021 and Declares Quarterly Dividend (E.P.S. at $.64; net recovery of $8K; no analyst coverage)
United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI) Announces Record Earnings for the First Quarter of 2021 (E.P.S. at $.83 with consensus at $.725 according to Fidelity; net income at $106.9M; Efficiency Ratio = 52.52%; NIM = 3.3%, flat Y-O-Y; NPL Ratio = .67%; NPA Ratio: .5%; ROA = 1.64%; ROE = 9.97%; ROTE = 17.2%)
Verizon (VZ) reports strong start to 2021 as company accelerates 5G growth (GAAP E.P.S. at $1.27; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $1.31, with consensus at $1.289 according to Fidelity; net income $5.4B; revenues at $32.9B, up 4% from the 2020 1st Q; cash flow at $9.7B; unsecured debt balance increased year over year by $42.9 billion to $147.6 billion in first-quarter 2021; guides 2021 non-GAAP E.P.S. to $5.00 to $5.15 )
Washington Trust (WASH) Reports First Quarter 2021 Earnings (E.P.S. at $1.17, consensus at $1.044 per Fidelity; net income at $20.5M; NIM = 2.51%; efficiency ratio = 59%; ROA = 1.45%; ROE = 15.55%; ROTE = 17.91%; NPL ratio = .31%; Charge offs = $18K; tangible book value per share = $26.79; loans to deposits .93%; total risk based capital ratio = 13.85%; tangible equity to tangible assets = 8.21%)
Webster Financial (WBS) Reports First Quarter 2021 Earnings Of $1.17 Per Diluted Share (GAAP E.P.S. OF $1.17; Non-GAAP at $1.25 with the consensus at $.919 according to Fidelity; NIM = 2.92%; Efficiency Ratio = 58.5%; ROTE = 16.79%; ROA =1.31%; Charge off ratio = .10%; NPL Ratio = .71%; Coverage Ratio = 218%; tangible book value per share = $26.46; total risk based capital ratio = 14.09%)
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'Passion Of The Christ' actor thinks kids are being drained for blood
Opinion | The Republican Party is beyond salvation — even without Trump - The Washington Post (opinion column by Max Boot - Wikipedia) I would agree with that opinion. I would add that the GOP is not salvageable as a conservative party.
America's authoritarian leaning party is becoming increasingly bold and obvious in their anti-democracy efforts. G.O.P. Bills Target Protesters (and Absolve Motorists Who Hit Them) - The New York Times
Opinion | Why Trump Still Rules the Republican Party - The New York Times ("Trump’s centrality guarantees that large numbers of resentful, truth-denying, conspiracy-minded, anti-democratic, overwhelmingly white voters will continue to find aid and comfort in the Republican Party.")
Republican candidate for Virginia's governor says Chauvin verdict makes her ‘sick’; republished from Amanda Chase, Republican candidate for Virginia governor, says Chauvin verdict made her "sick" - The Washington Post
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1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added to ENBPRP:CA-Bought 100 at C$17.14 (C$1 IB Commission):
This brings me up to 400 shares.
Buy Discussions for Current 400 share position: Item # 3.A. Added to ENBPRP:CA Bought 50 at C$11.98 and 50 at C$11.76 (6/13/20 Post); Item # 3.A. Added to ENBPRP:CA-Bought 50 at C$16.47 (2/16/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Bought 50 ENBPRP at C$15.68 (11/27/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 100 ENBPRP:CA at C$16.5 (3/20/19 Post)
Average Cost per share = C$15.41
Par Value: C$25
Current Coupon: 4.35% to but excluding 3/1/24 when the coupon resets unless redeemed at that time by the issuer
Annual Dividend 400 Shares = C$435
Reset: 2.5% Spread to the 5 year Canadian government bond.
The prospectus can be found here: Preferred Shares and Hybrid Securities - Enbridge Inc.
Yield at C$15.41 AC = 7.06% based on current coupon
Last Ex Dividend: 2/11/21
Sell Discussions: Item # 4.A. Sold 200 ENBPRP at C$19.91 (3/25/17 Post)(realized gain snapshot= C$963). That post also contains a snapshot of a 300 share round-trip that netted U.S.$1,458.25. That 300 share lot was bought at C$12.39. Update For Exchange Traded Bond And Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 2/29/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha Fidelity converts the CAD profit into USDs while I have to wait for IB to send out a 1099 showing the reportable USD profit. The IB reportable profit in 2017 was US$606.07:
That profit amount is not arrived at by applying the CAD/USD exchange rate to the C$963 profit but by assigning USD value to both the CAD purchase and sell amounts when made.
In the past, I have had a U.S. tax reportable loss with a CAD profit, a result created in part by the CAD losing value against the USD during the ownership period. (e.g. assume a 100 share buy at C$10 when the CAD/USD was at 1 to 1 and a sell at C$11 with the CAD/USD at .8. The USD value for the purchase was US$11 and at $8.8 when sold. While the Canadian profit was C$100, the reportable tax loss as a U.S. taxpayer would be -$220)
I own the common shares in 5 of my accounts. Enbridge Inc. Stock Quote The largest position is in my Fidelity taxable account where I currently own 46+ shares:
Average Cost = $30.98 |
Today, I have turned off reinvestment. The purchase prices in that account are between $23 to $35.
Previously, I have been paring this position in the $35 to $40 range but currently view the stock as more attractive compared to others due in significant part to its dividend yield. I now have a consider to pare range between $40 to $45. The highest cost lot was a 5 share purchase with a tax cost basis of $34.55 which will be sold in that range along with fractional shares purchased with 2 dividend payments at similar prices. When and if done, the new AC will be $30.39.
B. Added to EBGEF-Bought 10 at US$19.15:
Quote: EBGEF
Close on 4/23/21: US$19.65 (100 shares traded)
Issuer: Enbridge Inc
Link to ENB Preferred Stock Prospectuses and Current Penny Rates: Preferred Shares and Hybrid Securities - Enbridge Inc.
This brings me up to 150 EBGEF shares and raised my average cost per share slightly to US$18.68.
EBGEF is priced in USDs, and is traded on the U.S. Grey Market.
Dividends are paid by Enbridge in USDs after a 15% withholding tax.
Previous Discussions: Item # 4.A. Added to EBGEF -Bought 5 at $15.4; 5 at $15.25 (11/7/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Added to EBGEF-Bought 5 at $16.5 and 5 at $16.23 (9/12/20 Post); Item # 3.B. Bought 10 EBGEF at $14.81 (7/3/20 Post); Item # 2.C. Added 10 EBGEF at US$13.1 (5/23/20 Post): Item # 1.A. Bought 100 EBGEF at $20.1 (5/26/19 Post) I intend to sell the 100 shares bought at $20.1 when and if I can do so profitably.
Par Value: US$25
Coupon: 2.82% spread to the 5 year U.S. Treasury note with a five-year reset.
Next Reset: March 2024.
Dividends: Cumulative and Paid Quarterly
Current Coupon: $.33596 per share ($1.34 rounded)
Current Yield at $18.68 = 7.17%
Last Ex-Dividend: 2/11/21
Pricing will be impacted by investor perceptions and concerns about the next reset coupon rate.
The current coupon is about 5.36% applied to the $25 par value.
That would indicate that the 5 year U.S. Treasury note was close to 2.56% when the coupon reset in 2019 but then the next reset is almost 3 years in the future.
The 5-year treasury yield is nowhere near that level now. Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
2. Small Ball:
A. Bought 5 IFRA at $34.55:
Quote: iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF Overview
Closing Price 4/23/21: IFRA $35.69 +$0.42 +1.19%
I mentioned this purchase in a 3/31/21 comment.
Sponsor's Website: iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF
Expense Ratio: .40%
Dividends: Quarterly and Variable
Yield at Cost based on $.48 per share: 1.39%
Some Top Holdings as of 4/15/21:
This ETF has an abundance of utility companies. I do not consider them to be properly characterized as infrastructure companies.
The components of the ETF PAVE are a better fit for what I would consider infrastructure companies. U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF
B. Started ACWV as a Placeholder in Vanguard Taxable Account-Bought 1 at $97.48:
Quote: iShares Edge MSCI Minimum Volatility Global ETF Overview
Closing Price 4/23/21: ACWV $102.12 +$0.42 +0.41%
Sponsor's Website: iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF
Expense Ratio: Currently at .2% due to a fee waive of .12% through 12/31/23.
Dividends: Semi-annually in June and December
Some Top Holdings as of 4/16/21:
Number of Holdings: 378 as of 4/16/21
C. Bought 1 MTB at $152.4; 1 at $150-Schwab Taxable Account:
PBCT Schwab Account As of Close 4/23/21 |
Quote: M&T Bank Corp.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Average Cost this Account: $151.2 (2 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.1 per share; last raised from $1.00 effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment.
Yield at AC = 2.91%
Dividend History:
Last Ex Dividend: 2/26/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP E.P.S. = $3.33
Add Back : $.02 amortization of intangibles and $.06 merger related costs
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $3.41
Net Income = $447M
ROA = 1.22%
ROE = 11.57%
Charge off ratio = .31%
NPL Ratio = 1.97% (HIGH)
NIM = 2.97%, down from 3.65% in the 2020 1st Q
Efficiency Ratio = 60.3%
D. Bought 5 SJI at $22.26-Vanguard Taxable Account:
Quote: South Jersey Industries Inc
SJI - South Jersey Industries Inc Profile | Reuters
SJI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Closing Price 4/23/21: SJI $24.92 +$0.15 +0.61%
Last Discussed: Item #1.D. Pared SJI-Sold 5 at $23.91 and Item # 1.E. (2/27/21 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.A. Started SJI-Bought 5 at $23; 5 at $22.6; 5 at $22.2; 5 at $20.87; 5 at $20.5 (1/1/21 Post) I own a few shares in several accounts.
E. Bought 1 GLD at $156.68:
Quote: GLD | SPDR Gold Shares Overview
I mentioned this purchase in a 4/1/21 comment.
Closing Price 4/23/21: GLD $166.40 -$0.64 -0.38%
I view gold as one alternative to fiat currencies.
I will trade the short cycles in precious metals through bullion funds like GLD.
I trade bullion only in long cycles with the last transaction being to sell gold and silver in September 2011 when gold went over $1900 per ounce and in January 2012. Item # 1 (9/15/11 Post); Item # 8 (1/31/12 Post)
F. Bought 2 CMCSA at $54.5; 1 at $52.73:
Quote: Comcast Corp. Cl A
Closing Price 4/23/21: CMCSA $54.39 -$0.01 -0.02%
CMCSA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Sourced from 2020 Annual Report at page 35
5 Year Financials:
Page 33 Annual Report |
Map of Cable Distribution Footprint:
This segment provides cable, voice and internet services.Comcast owns several cable networks:
Several of these businesses have been adversely impacted by the pandemic.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
Yield at $54.5: = 1.83%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/6/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): The 2021 first quarter report is expected on 4/29/21.
Broker reports (available to Schwab customers):
Credit Suisse (3/17/21): Outperform with a $67 PT
Argus (2/4/21): Buy with a $60 PT
S & P (1/24/21): 5 stars with a $60 PT
G. Bought 2 AIRR at $40.58:
Quote: First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF Overview
Closing Price 4/23/21: AIRR $41.77 +$0.91 +2.23%
Sponsor's Website: First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance® ETF (AIRR)
Expense Ratio: .7% (too high)
Some Holdings:
H. Bought 10 MAC at $11.83:
Quote: Macerich Co.
Closing Price 4/23/21: MAC $12.98 +$0.30 +2.37%
Stock Information as of 4/23/21:
5 Year Chart: Major Bear Market
"The Company is the sole general partner of, and owns a majority of the ownership interests in, The Macerich Partnership, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (the "Operating Partnership"). As of December 31, 2020, the Operating Partnership owned or had an ownership interest in 47 regional shopping centers and five community/power shopping centers. These 52 regional and community/power shopping centers (which include any related office space) consist of approximately 50 million square feet of gross leasable area (“GLA”)"
Recent News: This news release caused me to start a Lotto position in this troubled owner of shopping malls. Macerich Substantially Improves and Clarifies Liquidity Position (3/26/11) "Through March 25, 2021, the Company has sold 36.0 million shares of common stock under its “at the market” equity program at a weighted average price of $13.54 per share, generating gross proceeds of approximately $487.3 million. . . . The Company is under contract to sell a 95% interest in Paradise Valley Mall, a non-core asset in Phoenix, AZ, for $100 million to a newly formed joint venture. The transaction is expected to close in late March 2021, and is anticipated to generate net proceeds of approximately $95 million to the Company. The Company will retain a 5% joint venture interest in this multi-year redevelopment." (this press release was also filed with the SEC)
The company has repositioned itself over the past decade as an owner of Class A malls.
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket/Contrarian Value
This is my first purchase.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15, slashed to $.10 from $.71+ effective for the 2020 second quarter and then raised to $.15 effective for the 2020 3rd quarter.
Yield at $11.83: 5.1%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/18/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
Broker Reports:
S & P (3/27/21): 2 stars with a 12 month PT of $12
Morningstar (3/30/21): 5 stars with a FV of $29.5
Maximum Position: 30 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must lower my average cost per share.
Goal: Dividend +2% annualized
I. Bought 2 SCHC at $40.65:
Quote: Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF Overview
Closing Price 4/23/21: SCHC $41.58 +$ 0.46 +1.12%
Sponsor's Website: Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF
Expense Ratio: .11%
Holdings: 2,289
Dividends: Annually
This stock sector has significantly underperformed U.S. small cap stocks over the past 5 and 10 year periods. Through 4/20/21, the annual average total return for SCHC was 9.13% which is respectable. The Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB), which owns U.S. stocks, produced an average annual total return of 15.26% over the same 5 year period.
J. Sold All BXMX Shares in Fidelity Taxable Account Bought with Dividends at $13.63:
Quote: Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund Overview - a CEF
I have turned off dividend reinvestment.
Sponsor's Website: BXMX - Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund
Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund-SEC Filed 2020 Annual Report
Buy Discussions: Item L. Added to BXMX-Bought 10 at $10.96 (11/13/20 Post); Item # 2 Bought 100 BXMX at $11 (6/27/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$13.63
For this CEF, this is my first sell.
New Average Cost Per Share this account = $10.47 (110 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 4/5/21 after pare |
The AC was reduced from $10.58.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.215 per share ($.86 annually)
Heavy ROC support.
Yield at new AC = 8.21%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/12/21
Data date of 4/5/21 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $14.42
Closing Market Price: $13.64
Discount: -5.41%
Sourced: BXMX- CEF Connect
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
High income tax payers, have known proposals were coming. So would have been selling by now already? This whole thing won't be making a dent that can be predicted at this time. And probably never make an impact on the economy or the market from what I can see. Like I expected, it didn't impact the market for long this time - 2 days.
ReplyDeleteThe booster shot depends on how many people get vaccinated and wipe out this virus. My sister was mad yesterday that so many people in her purple area are not wearing masks anymore to the grocery store. I'm still double layering. It was nice in the winter - added warmth.
With India in such bad shape, that means the world isn't close to over this. The India index I bought before it's that far down.
INDA - it was down more in late Feb. There must be an assumption that this will end.
My 2nd antibodies test for 4 weeks after 2nd shot, came back at 36, which is positive and over the .8 cut off. Some people have >250. I wonder how 36 compares to >250 in effectiveness. (Though the test isn't known to be a good measure of effectiveness at all, only of antibodies.)
The medication probably hasn't effected my immune development, since it hasn't effected the cells it was supposed to. So, probably something of a dud all the way around.
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LMT's come out of it's downward trend that was looking worrisome. Selling into the resistance top but overall not in that downtrend. Doesn't look like it's decent earnings report was particularly exciting or negative to buyers. Div at 2.76%
MMM is doing well. Apparently the legal worries aren't worrying that much. Earnings in 2 days. PE on THIS stock is 21.9. That's high for it's potential? Div still near 3%. (I used Ameritrade, and didn't do a SEC look up to verify PE.)
LAZ has been improving, trending up, too. Earnings on 30th. 4.05% div. PE 15.
PFE - it doesn't look like it got much buying off their div announcement. Nor that CNBC report of suggesting a 3rd booster needed. Maybe because J&J came back into use at the same time.
Not sure what to think of VZ's actions. Kind of no where clear. 12.4 PE and 4.38% div.
Land: I went into a local Italian restaurant Friday night wearing a mask. No one was wearing one, including the servers, and tables were not space six feet apart. Except for large chain stores like Krogers, mask wearing is not required for entry and most people refused to wear one indoors.
ReplyDeleteThe virus will have time and an abundance of human petrie dishes to evolve into something more dangerous.
The pandemic is out-of-control in countries like India and Brazil, and the number of reported infections are only a fraction of their respective infected populations.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/25/asia/india-covid-fourth-day-record-infections-intl-hnk/index.html
In the U.S. about 8% of the people who received their first Moderna or Pfizer vaccine shot have failed to return for the second.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/25/business/covid-vaccines-second-doses.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
About 29% of the population has been fully vaccinated.
The VZ earnings were okay but not enough to move the stock higher so far. The skyrocketing debt is a major concern, as is the total amount of required capital expenditures and rising labor costs.
MMM reports on 4/27 with the consensus E.P.S. at $2.295. The major headwind remains litigation and remediation liabilities associated with PFAS.
I barely have a position in VZ and MMM. If I owned 100 shares of MMM, I would have already started paring the position. I own 1.191 shares with a $167.73 AC and am not likely to do anything near the current price of $202.
After noting that Vertex paid Crisper Therapeutics $900M for another 10% interest in Crisper's CTX001 gene editing therapy, I did manage to buy 1 share of CRSP.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/04/20/2213128/0/en/Vertex-Pharmaceuticals-and-CRISPR-Therapeutics-Amend-Collaboration-for-Development-Manufacturing-and-Commercialization-of-CTX001-in-Sickle-Cell-Disease-and-Beta-Thalassemia.html
I will be discussing VRTX and CRSP in my next post.
A few other non-typical buys, less than 5 shares, which I will discuss down the road include AFRM, IVII, MAXN, and QDEL which was smacked last Friday. MAXN was bought after the shares plunged in response to a share offering. QDEL plunged on lower than expected first quarter revenues. My comfort level with these non-dividend paying stocks is below nil when my comfort level about buying stocks is virtually nil. So I am devoting about the same amount of money as one of my frisky blackjack hands.
Well, as I crunch up my nose at the state of masks and distancing... at least this is natural selection. It bugged me much, that are 2008 relief actions rewarded non-savers and impudent spenders by relieving upside down houses while punishing savers, with ZIRP.
DeleteUnfortunately you can't be extra careful in a restaurant since eating can't be done with a mask on.
Brazil's been a mess for a good while without effecting us.
India's a distance away... but that's one big subcontinent.
VZ - I noticed the debt but assumed telecom always has to built. But ah, my first reaction was 1/3 increase in debt is significant.
You own 1.191 shares of MMM? So you own about an Ml amount of MMMs?
The market stopped worrying about the law suites. Maybe thinks the funds set aside are enough.
The lack of divs on the medical experimentals is a factor since it can take years to show promise.
CRSP - even if not successful, if they do anything that looks like patented advancements, it will sell well. This is such a wanted area, IMHO.
I'll look up all those ideas. It is a good area going forward.
DeleteToday is rotation back to covid worry again! Or tech pulledback enough to trigger re-buying?
The VST in this article got my attention. It'd be deep value, with risk. But the arguments for why it's not a huge risk seemed "solid." 31%div. I wouldn't look if market had lots of options. But maybe now it's an option. I'd also set a sell order if it sank, and if the market starts crash indicators, get out.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421050-2-dividend-stocks-double-in-near-future
I got a chance yesterday to look at CRSP some more and the others AFRM, IVII, MAXN, and QDEL.
DeleteReally good finds. Businesses with serious growth potential. They've already climbed and might come down but not all the way. So I'm not treating them as an emergency to get into. But they could bounce at any point.
I think IVII is VII. I'll post in newer threads if I have more thoughts as I look at them.
I am curious where you found them. I'd like to learn to dig around, and see what I can spot.
Land: CRSP is a flyer for me. If its gene editing therapies work, and are approved for marketing, I will not have to own many shares to book a nice profit down the road. I continued buying in $50 increments yesterday.
Deletehttps://www.nasdaq.com/articles/with-1-cure-behind-it-this-breakthrough-biotech-takes-aim-at-a-bigger-market-2021-05-07
IIVI is an interesting company and I have been buying in 1 share increments on the way down. The 1st quarter earnings report was above consensus but the stock slid in response to soft guidance for the current quarter.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000119312521152512/d383883dex991.htm
The company gave various reasons for the lower than expected guidance during the earnings call.
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/05/07/ii-vi-iivi-q3-2021-earnings-call-transcript/
QDEL is so far a 1 share position. It reported after the close yesterday.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353569/000035356921000053/qdel-20210331exhibit991.htm
The main issue is the longevity of its at home Covid test kit.
AFRM is only a 2 share position. I have questions about the longer term viability of its business model and will probably just maintain the current position as a placeholder.
I will discuss MAXN in my next post. It is not profitable, nor is it projected to be profitable before 2024.
I sold yesterday 100 shares of PBA and 390+ of DPG.
I did not want to risk my unrealized gain in PBA, so I sold before the earnings report released after the close (+$1,044.26) I still own close to 30 shares. I had bought those shares last October.
Item # 1
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/11/buse-bxmx-duk-ebix-fcbc-fpf-opi-orcc.html
Land: I actually own 1.446 QDEL shares. The Stock Jocks are responding positively, so far, to its earnings report released after the close yesterday, though trading is on the wild side.
DeleteQuidel Corp. $114.91 +$6.37 +5.87%
DAY RANGE 107.10 - 120.98
Last Updated: May 7, 2021 at 9:47 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/qdel?mod=over_search
CRSP sounds interesting. Gene editing that has at all gathered skills, will be sold or grow on it's own, even if it's stuff doesn't succeed at first.
ReplyDeleteI looked up MMM on SEC to make sure I could do it. I get 9.25 diluted GAAP earnings for 12/2020.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/66740/000155837021000737/mmm-20201231x10k.htm#IndextoFinancial_844946
I get a little confused. I don't see mention of a non-GAAP version.
Also I got there by guessing from the Table of Contents. Not some obvious indicator.
From TOC that "Consolidated Statement of Income for the years ended December 31, 2020, 2019 and 2018" is the link to the earnings. There doesn't seem to be clear mention of a specific spot to go to. Just guessing from the TOC.
There's a 8-K on march 22 when earnings aren't due out yet for a few days. But it looks like a supplemental not regular earnings. Something they wanted to or needed to release.
"is being furnished to include supplemental unaudited historical business segment information and consolidated income information (furnished hereunder as Exhibit 99 and incorporated herein by reference) that reflects the following:
●Changes in the measure of segment operating performance used by 3M’s chief operating decision maker
●Change in accounting principle for determining net periodic pension and postretirement plan cost"
So if I messed up well, it'd be good to know.
Land: It is generally easier to pick up the annual GAAP and Non-GAAP E.P.S. from the 4th quarter earnings press release which will be filed using the SEC Form 8-K.
ReplyDelete2020 MMM "GAAP EPS of $9.25; adjusted EPS of $8.74"
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/66740/000110465921007403/tm214183d1_ex99-1.htm
You can also see what items are added to or subtracted from GAAP to arrive at the non-GAAP earnings and E.P.S.
There was a significant gain from selling a business that is excluded from MMM's GAAP earnings when calculating non-GAAP which excludes special items.
MMM will be reporting its first quarter earnings this upcoming week.
The 8-K filing that you reference is not a quarterly earnings report but changes prior accounting which I would just ignore. The net effect when netting 2020, 2019 and 2018 is to add 9 cents total to the GAAP reported numbers in those years.
The revised GAAP number for 2010 is $9.36, up 11 cents from the last report (see numbers at the bottom)
CRSP is not going to be reporting an annual profit anytime soon. VRTX is voting with its money that the CRSP's gene editing therapies will work and be a major breakthrough in treating several diseases. If gene editing produces a cure, then it will be a big deal.
When looking at Jan 26 8-k filing, for GAAP vs non-GAAP, the word *adjusted* means non-GAAP?
ReplyDelete-GAAP EPS of $9.25; adjusted EPS of $8.74
So many of the 8-ks are supplements to ignore (or glance at to see how big an adjustment.)
I should have guessed that Jan 26 was the last 2020 quarter. I figured it was another adjustment and last quarters must not be in 8-ks, only 10-ks.
And 8-ks being more to the point, are easier to get the data from. Good.
The non-gaap is down EPS is down from the GAAP's and it lists a loss for sale of a business, so that fits. Then you'd have to read through to find out what business and if it matters.
Apparently there's just enough variety that I'll need to keep looking to get more instinct on finding those clear sections with the condensed data.
Thanks! The PE on Ameritrade is reasonably close.
Land: Adjusted is non-GAAP. The gain from selling a business is included in MMM’s GAAP and deducted from GAAP when calculating non-GAAP while certain cash and non-cash expenses will be added to GAAP when calculating non-GAAP.
DeleteOkay!
DeleteFirst Choice Bancorp (FCBP)
ReplyDeleteAFTER HOURS $ 30.15 +$5.85 +24.07%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fcbp?mod=over_search
After the close, it was announced that FCBP agreed to be acquired Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC):
Press Release: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210426005693/en/Enterprise-Financial-Services-Corp-to-Acquire-First-Choice-Bancorp
"each holder of FCBP common stock will receive 0.6603 shares of EFSC common stock for each FCBP common share held and cash in lieu of fractional shares"
EFSC is currently down $1.15 to $49 in after hours trading.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/efsc?mod=over_search
$49 x. .6603 = $32.36
I still own a few shares of FCBP bought at $17 and will likely sell them rather than wait for the merger's consummation. In my next post, I will be discussing selling 5 shares in another account at $24.7 realizing a $40 profit.
Voter support for the formerguy has softened.
ReplyDeleteI don't know that it means much, but at least it's the right and usual post-losing an election, direction.
"Even Trump’s pull within his own party appears to have lessened, with 44 percent of Republicans saying they’re more supporters of Trump than the GOP, versus 50 percent who say they’re more supporters of the GOP than the former president."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/after-100-days-out-office-trump-s-support-softens-nbc-n1265457?cid=sm_npd_ms_tw_ma
Well that was an interesting day. VIX didn't move much.
ReplyDeleteBut individual tech way down on good ER beats. GRMN -2.9% and TXN -4.6%. While QQQ gained, and SOXX's down -.8%
I haven't seen anything in the ERs that's negative.
Land: My Apple computer that I have been using for about a decade died this morning so most of the day was spent buying a new one, transferring files, etc.
ReplyDeleteI did eliminate a few position including VNO and my 50 share Lotto in RRD that I had bought at $1.37 and sold today at $4.76 in response to a negative earnings report.
Wow that's fast. Takes me months to buy a new computer. Of course these days if it was dead, it's a necessity. That might speed me up to fast turtle instead of slow snail.
DeleteYou got setup just in time to finish some "big" trades.
I didn't trade anything. Looked up earnings reports. MMM beat so much the other day that I'm holding for now. F went down but it didn't surprise, just came in okay, so I'm not surprised.
For most of the stocks that I own, first quarter earnings reports have been much better than expected using the consensus estimates.
ReplyDeleteThe most important sector exception is drug stocks whose earnings have been below expectations. The companies generally blame the pandemic that reduced visits to doctors for the unfavorable results.
Merck and BMY are today's examples.
Merck & Co. Inc (MRK)
$73.06 -$4.03 -5.23%
Last Updated: Apr 29, 2021 12:02 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mrk?mod=over_search
MRK is a DJIA component.
Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (BMY)
$63.16 -$2.87 -4.35%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bmy?mod=over_search
AMGN is also a DJIA component and was smashed yesterday on a worse than expected report. AMGN is now trading close to $232 and closed at $255.13 last Tuesday.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMGN/history?p=AMGN
The best report this week among my regional bank stocks is probably FISI:
Financial Institutions Inc.
$31.34 +$1.42 +4.75%
Last Updated: Apr 29, 2021 12:07 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fisi?mod=over_search
Diluted E.P.S. was $1.27 vs. the consensus at $.51 according to Fidelity.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/04/28/2219030/9870/en/Financial-Institutions-Inc-Announces-First-Quarter-Results.html
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/04/arcc-bp-cag-crsp-fcbp-fdus-gnom-hrzn.html