Economy:
Consumer Price Index Summary: Unchanged last month on a seasonably adjusted basis and up 1.2% Y-O-Y through October on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core CPI was up 1.6% Y-O-Y.
There were 709,000 new claims for unemployment for the W/E 11/7/2020.
Goldman Sachs cuts growth forecasts for the U.S. and Europe, citing worries over COVID-19's winter spread - MarketWatch GS is also expecting a smaller stimulus package, somewhere near $1T, given the election results.
Coronavirus stimulus update: Pelosi and Schumer, McConnell divided on relief bill
Calculated Risk: Many Millions could lose unemployment benefits at the End of 2020
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Stanley Druckenmiller says he wouldn't want to be short market, sees stock rotation continuing
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) earnings Q3 2020 Berkshire bought back $9B of its shares during the quarter. Operating earnings were below expectations and continued to be negatively impacted by the pandemic and the related recession. Closing Price Monday 11/9/20: BRK-B $221.50 +$12.65 +6.06%
The S & P 500 did establish a new high last Monday at 3,645.99 (11/9/20), but spent the remainder of that day in decline mode, closing at 3,550.5.
The previous intraday high was 3,588.11 (9/2/20), with a close that day at 3,580.84.
I mentioned in a comment that it was noteworthy that the slide on 11/9 took the index below its previous closing high on 9/2/20.
Later this week, the Stock Jocks took another stab at a new record closing high but came up short with a 3,572.66 close last Wednesday.
The index then fell 35.65 points or 1% on Thursday, closing at 3,537.01 after rallying into the close.
Based on pre-market activity today, the Stock Jocks may make another stab at a new closing high.
Worries about the pandemic and another stimulus bill restrained the markets advance.
Cisco Reports First Quarter Earnings I have recently added to my small ball position in CSCO and will discuss the earnings report in my next post.
Adams Diversified Equity Fund declares $0.88 dividend (NYSE:ADX) | Seeking Alpha
++++++++
Portfolio Management:
Cash continues to build in all accounts, as net new purchases have failed to redeploy cash received from fixed income maturities and early redemptions plus the normal and recurring cash flow from interest and dividend payments.
I am redeploying into risk asset purchases all of the dividend and interest payments received in cash. Reinvesting those amounts is standard operating procedure even during the darkest of times and when major market indexes are overvalued as now. There are always pockets of stocks priced within reasonable valuation ranges, but then the Stock Jocks lack interest in those stocks when others are soaring.
Last Monday and Tuesday, I sold into the rallies in several sectors that resulted from the Pfizer vaccine news, particularly regional bank stocks. I discussed a few trades from last Tuesday, about 1/3rd of the total, in this comment. Overall, I have raised capital this week through net selling.
For stocks bought using the small ball trading technique, I am required by Left Brain's rules to consider selling my highest cost lots profitably during price pops.
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Covid-19 Updates:
What Pfizer’s landmark COVID vaccine results mean for the pandemic
US Daily Deaths | The COVID Tracking Project
My gut has informed me that the pandemic in the U.S. will continue into the 2021 spring. Mask wearing, quarantining and social distancing will likely be required or requested through the 2021 summer.
I would anticipate a second vaccination cycle during the 2021-2022 winter months before the pandemic is finally brought under control.
There are several reasons why I am making those predictions.
About 1/3rd of the U.S. population will not take the vaccine and will continue to exercise their constitutional right to infect and kill others by refusing to wear masks or to socially distance. Many of those people will remain carriers of a highly infectious disease. And I suspect that the vaccine will not provide much, if any, protection after a year, similar in that regard to a seasonal flu shot.
While Pfizer refused to accept federal funding, and did not participate in project warp speed, Donald and Pence nonetheless took credit for the Pfizer vaccine development. Fact-checking the battle for credit over Pfizer's vaccine announcement (Pfizer: "We were never part of the Warp Speed. We have never taken any money from the U.S. government, or from anyone."); Mike Pence Falsely Takes Credit for Pfizer Vaccine, Is Promptly Told to F--k Off | Vanity Fair; Trump Allies Are Rushing To Falsely Claim Government Credit For Pfizer Vaccine Success
Even if Pfizer had accepted federal money, the origin of that cash was legislation passed by Congress.
Facts will never get in the way of republican reality creations.
Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine: Meet the scientists who developed the vaccine - CNN As you would expect, CNN failed to mention Doctor Don's contribution.
The Surging Coronavirus Finds a Federal Leadership Vacuum - The New York Times (11/11/20)
Coronavirus Infections in Trump’s Inner Circle - The New York Times
Lewandowski is latest White House election night guest to test positive for coronavirus The Trumpsters refused to wear masks or to socially distance.
U.S. prepares for worst four months of the pandemic (11/11/20)
US Coronavirus cases hit daily high, more than 140,000 new cases - CNN
U.S. adds another 130,000 cases in a day: ‘This is what exponential math looks like,’ says expert - MarketWatch (11/10/20) Donald and Pence are hard at work to stem the tide.
The coronavirus pandemic ‘is about to explode’ before therapeutic counterattack, Dr. Scott Gottlieb says Donald was playing golf when the infection number passed 10M.
Trump Baselessly Alleges COVID-19 Vaccine Announcement Was Delayed - FactCheck.org
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Don the Authoritarian:
DOJ's top election crimes prosecutor quits in protest after Barr tells federal attorneys to probe unsupported allegations of voting irregularities; DOJ's election crimes chief resigns after Barr allows prosecutors to probe voter fraud claims Those federal prosecutors are republicans beholden to Trump and Barr.
The Times Called Officials in Every State: No Evidence of Voter Fraud - The New York Times That will not stop the republicans from continuing to echo Donald's claims and to rely on fabricated evidence and reality creations in order to denigrate faith in the democratic process, one of Putin's objectives, and to disrupt the transfer of power.
Election Officials Directly Contradict Trump on Voting System Fraud - The New York Times
Joint Statement from Elections Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council & the Election Infrastructure Sector Coordinating Executive Committees | CISA "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised."
Postal worker admits fabricating Pennsylvania ballot tampering claims, officials say - The Washington Post; republished at MSN: Postal worker recanted allegations of ballot tampering, officials say; Erie Postal Worker Admits Making Up Pennsylvania Ballot Tampering Claims, Officials Say – CBS Pittsburgh
Attorney General Barr's election fraud memo shakes Justice Department
Fighting Election Results, Trump Employs a New Weapon: The Government - The New York Times (Trump is "harnessing the power of the federal government to resist the results of an election that he lost, something that no sitting president has done in American history.")
In poll watcher affidavits, Trump campaign offers no evidence of fraud in Detroit ballot-counting - The Washington Post Trump's lawyers need to be sanctioned by the court for presenting a mountain of meaningless affidavits. Trump is asking a federal judge to throw out Michigan's results and to start over. Hundreds provide testimonies -- but no real evidence -- in Trump campaign lawsuit to stop certification of Michigan election results; Nessel: Trump lawsuits essentially say 'Black people are corrupt' The suit was filed in the Western District federal court where there are 5 sitting federal district court judges, all of whom were appointed by republicans. Federal lawsuit seeks to throw out 1.2M votes, flipping Michigan for Trump - mlive.com
Arizona's Republican Attorney General Mark Brnovich dismisses election fraud claims Several networks have called Arizona for Biden over the past 24 hours.
Donald claimed in a tweet that 2.7M of his votes have been deleted and 221,000 Trump votes in Pennsylvania were switched to Biden, citing a QAnon inspired reporter for the far right OANN "network".
The Dictator Want-To-Be is an authoritarian, and consequently it is not surprising that he would use the powers of the Presidency in an effort to stay in power irrespective of the election results. Republican politicians, with 4 exceptions in the Senate, endorse that approach or publicly express no objection to it.
The strong authoritarian drift in the U.S. is fueled in significant part by widespread adoption of fact free and frequently malicious conspiracy theories among republicans and republican leaning independents and their widespread acceptance of demonstrably false statements and narratives as true. It will be a very long struggle to overcome that drift, with the outcome now in serious doubt since tens of millions can no longer be persuaded by accurate information and readily accept the most outlandish and fact free conspiracy theories.
In my opinion, it is obvious that Donald is malevolent, incompetent, ignorant, unwilling to learn, a pathological liar, a malignant narcissist and sociopath, an authoritarian-minded demagogue, vindictive, impulsive, and filled with rage, yet 72+M Americans voted to give him 4 more years as President. At least we know where they stand.
My opinion and those 72+M votes have made me more nervous and concerned about America's future than at any time in my life. None of those enumerated qualities are related to policy positions; but are personality characteristics that make Donald obviously unfit to be president.
The problem is aptly summarized by Thomas Friedman in a recent opinion column: Opinion | Only Truth Can Save Our Democracy - The New York Times
In appeasing Trump, the GOP toys with a constitutional crisis
Pompeo: 'There will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration' - MarketWatch
Trump appointee Emily Murphy at GSA declines to sign letter authorizing Biden transition-The Washington Post Before an authoritarian and conspiracy ladened culture became dominant in Trump's party, it would be normal for the GSA to release federal funds to the President-Elect to create a smooth transition. Trump is preventing that from happening and is consequently disrupting the transfer of power. Until Ms. Murphy relents, Biden will not receive top secret briefings or be able to "communicate with the federal agencies" that he will be staffing. Pressure mounts on federal agency to affirm Biden victory
White House tells agencies not to cooperate with the Biden transition - The Washington Post
Trump's State Department is refusing to pass along messages addressed to Biden from foreign leaders. State Department won't give Biden messages from foreign leaders
Michael Lewis wrote a book, "The Fifth Risk", detailing how mind-boggling incompetent Trump's transition effort was in 2016, and that was with Hillary conceding immediately after the election was called by the networks and Trump quickly received cooperation for a transition from Obama. 'The Fifth Risk,' Michael Lewis' New Book, Paints A Portrait Of A Government Led By The Uninterested: NPR
Trump's authoritarian attacks are not a fluke-Business Insider
Trump is the most antidemocratic president in modern US history- Business Insider
Fox News Hits a Dangerous New Low - The Atlantic
A Large Portion of the Electorate Chose the Sociopath - The Atlantic
Georgia's republican Senators Loeffler and Perdue demand resignation of Georgia's republican secretary of state Georgia's Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger stated there was no evidence of voter fraud, which is what sparked Loeffler and Perdue, both facing runoffs from their democrat challengers, to demand that he resign.
Official who once called Obama a ‘terrorist leader’ takes over Pentagon policy - POLITICO; Anthony Tata Once Called Obama a 'Terrorist Leader' | Law & Crime
Trump loyalists promoted to powerful Pentagon roles after Trump fires Secretary of Defense Esper
Price Wallace (R- Mississippi) Calls for Mississippi's Secession if Biden wins-Law & Crime Any objections?
Trump Forms PAC in Hopes of Keeping Hold on G.O.P. - The New York Times- republished at MSN: Trump Forms PAC in Hopes of Keeping Hold on G.O.P.
Trump Administration Is Threatening to Fire Anyone Looking for a New Job | Vanity Fair
Thin Allegations of 'Dead People' Voting - FactCheck.org Generally in elections involving mail in ballots, a few people die after they mailed in a ballot.
In the waning days of his Presidency, Donald is attempting to undermine national security in a variety of ways. Trump allies clash with top intelligence officials in quest to declassify more Russia documents (Donald is still fighting the intelligence communities assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 election on his behalf and is doing so in a manner that endangers national security); Biden not getting intelligence reports because Trump officials won't recognize him as president-elect; Opinion | John Bolton: Time is running out for Trump — and Republicans who coddle him - The Washington Post ("All transitions bring uncertainty, but to decapitate substantial parts of the national security apparatus during such a period for no reason other than personal pique is irresponsible and dangerous.") A few Republican senators are trying to protect the CIA Director from ouster in the last days of Trump's presidency.
John Bolton accuses GOP of 'coddling' Trump while he 'trashes the US electoral system' | TheHill Without question IMO, Donald, his party, and the apparatchiks at Fox "news" have already done more damage to the election process than Putin could ever hope to do.
{For example, Laura Ingraham aired earlier this week an interview with a mystery witness, appearing only in darkness with her voice disguised, who claimed that she saw some people, near a Biden van parked at a polling station, marking what may have been ballots in broad daylight rather than inside the "Biden van" or some other private location. The woman claimed to be a poll worker who was walking outside a Nevada polling station in her polling uniform" during a lunch break. Maybe the so called poll worker in her "poll uniform" could have taken a video of the nefarious deed with her phone, but that would have required that the alleged event to have occurred. For Ms. Ingraham, a Trump propagandist with an hour show each weekday night on the Fake News Network, that was proof of wrongdoing and no doubt for her listeners at the Fake News "fair and balanced" network. Fox News ridiculed over bizarre interview with disguised poll worker claiming Biden corruption; Fox News Host Laura Ingraham Clowned Over Interviewing 'Nevada Poll Worker'; This Anonymous Poll Worker Witnessed Voter Fraud | The Daily Social Distancing Show - YouTube Dan Patrick, who has offered $1M for evidence of voter fraud, may have a check in the mail. Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick offers $1 million reward for evidence of voter fraud - HoustonChronicle.com }
Donations under $8K to Trump ‘election defense’ instead go to president, RNC | Reuters; Opinion | Trump’s election challenge looks like a scam to line his pockets - The Washington Post (just read the fine print in Donald's solicitation: Trump Make America Great Again Committee)
PolitiFact | Trump’s wrong claim that election observers were barred in Pennsylvania, Michigan Just a knowingly false claim made by Demagogue Don rated as Pants on Fire.
The republicans did elect this month their first two QAnon congressional representatives.
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Senator Ron Johnson (R-WIS): Ron Johnson (Wisconsin politician) - Wikipedia
Johnson is a 100% pure Trumpster who is up for reelection in 2022. He was first elected in 2010 as the tea party candidate.
As a senate candidate in 2009, Johnson opposed the 2009 Obama stimulus bill, telling the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that the U.S. "would have been far better off not spending any of the money and [letting] the recovery happen as it was going to happen." Johnson's PIE inquired about federal funds; Fact check Ron Johnson on American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: Did stimulus money go to unions?
However, with Donald as President and Republican control over the senate up for grabs, Johnson voted to support a far larger stimulus bill. H.R. 6074: Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2020 -- GovTrack The largest of those stimulus bills was the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (H.R. 748) - GovTrack.us, which passed 96-0 in the Senate with Johnson voting in the affirmative.
Donald Trump tells allies he could soon announce 2024 presidential run - Business Insider How can that happen when Presidents are constitutionally limited to 2 four year terms and Donald won reelection for his section term as he has declared many times?
GOP senator Roy Blount (Missouri): Trump 'may not have been defeated' | TheHill Republicans will claim voter fraud, with no evidence backing up their claim, even when they win.
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Michell Steel (R-CA):
Michelle Steel is the representative elect for California's 48th Congressional District, having defeated the incumbent Harry Rouda (D).
Ms. Steel is IMO part of the ongoing problem relating to the pandemic which explains her popularity in this congressional district. She questioned the efficacy of wearing masks and voted against mandatory face masks as a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors. She also opposed a regulation that required retail employees to wear masks.
No amount of scientific evidence can convince a True Believer like Ms. Steel that wearing masks reduces the spread of Covid-19. In that regard, she is a typical member of Trump's party. Orange County Public Health Officials Under Fire Over Mask Order Republicans will accept as true their reality creations and reject scientific evidence inconsistent with them. Facts and reliable evidence really do not matter to them. Do Face Masks Protect The Wearer From Coronavirus? Yes, Says CDC; Here’s the Science Behind How Face Masks Prevent Coronavirus | UC San Francisco
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1. Bought 107 PBA-100 at $21.84; 5 at $20.89; 2 at $20.66 and Sold 7 at $23.18:
Quotes:
USD Priced Shares: Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA)
CAD Price Shares Pembina Pipeline Corp. (Canada: Toronto)
CAD / USD Currency Chart. Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Rates
Stock Information as of Thursday 11/12:
"Pembina is a leading transportation and midstream service provider that has been serving North America's energy industry for more than 65 years. Pembina owns an integrated system of pipelines that transport various hydrocarbon liquids and natural gas products produced primarily in western Canada. The Company also owns gas gathering and processing facilities; an oil and natural gas liquids infrastructure and logistics business; is growing an export terminals business; and is developing a petrochemical facility to convert propane into polypropylene."
Purchases:
Sold 7 out 107:
Profit Snapshot (7 Shares): +$9.42
PBA Trading Profits to Date: $818.92
Investment Category: Bond Substitute/Contrarian Value
Average Cost Per Share: $21.77
Dividend: Monthly at C$.21 per share (C$2.52 annually)
Next Ex-Dividend: 11/24/20
Yield: The dividend yield will depend on the CAD/USD exchange rate when the dividend is converted into USDs. Assuming no change in the penny rate, and a constant .75 CAD/USD exchange rate, the yield before taxes (Canadian and U.S.) would be about 8.68%.
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.E. Restarted PBA-Bought 10 at $15.72; 5 at $14.7; 1 at $13.3; 1 at $11.9 (5/9/20 Post) I still own those shares in another taxable account.
Prior Round Trips: Item # 2 Sold 100 PBA at $38.69 (1/18/20)(profit snapshot = $435.78)= Item # 1 Bought 100 PBA at $34.34 (12/11/19 Post); Item # 5 Sold 100 PBA at 33.19 (10/3/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $383.72)-Item # 3 Bought 100 PBA at $29.22 (2/20/13 Post)
5 Year Chart as of 11/12:
The chart clearly shows that investors view the pandemic as hurting this energy infrastructure company.
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
PBA's "business is highly contracted, with approximately 95 percent of 2020 adjusted EBITDA supported by long-term, fee-based contracts, including approximately 72 percent coming from cost-of-service or take-or-pay contracts with no volume or price risk"
The "commodity exposure in Pembina's business is limited to the Marketing & New Ventures Division. For the last two years, our Marketing & New Ventures Division generated adjusted EBITDA in excess of $400 million annually, and in 2020, we expect to generate less than half of that under unprecedented circumstances. We have remained steadfast in our systematic natural gas liquids hedging program. By the fall of 2019, we had hedged 50 percent of our 2020 frac spread exposure, excluding Aux Sable, which to date has generated approximately $40 million of realized gains. We have secured hedges for 50 percent of our 2021 frac spread exposure, excluding Aux Sable, thus achieving our objective for the upcoming year. The 2021 hedges were executed throughout 2019 and 2020 and therefore reflect a combination of higher and lower frac spread environments but overall, provide protection against further narrowing of 2021 frac spread."
"Subsequent to the quarter, Pembina completed the startup of new fractionation and terminalling facilities at the Empress NGL Extraction Facility. This project was placed into service on time and on budget. These new assets add approximately 30,000 barrels per day ("bpd") of propane-plus fractionation capacity and enable Pembina to optimize propane marketing from the facility between eastern and western markets."
2. Small Ball:
A. Restarted FPF-Bought 10 at $21.64:
Quote: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund Overview
As with other "preferred stock" funds, FPF owns both exchange-traded bonds and equity preferred stocks.
Dividend: Monthly at $.1275 per share (Annually at $1.53)
Yield at $21.64: 7.07%
Last Ex-Dividend Date: 11/2/20
SEC Filed Portfolio Holdings as of 7/31/20
SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 4/30/20)
Credit Quality:
Leveraged: Yes at .75% above the 1 month Libor rate as of 4/30/20
Assuming no change in the .75% spread to the 1 month Libor, the current borrowing cost would be less than 1%.
Data Date of 10/16/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $22.75
Closing Market Price: $21.6
Discount: -5.05%
Average 5 Year Discount: -4.02%
Sourced: FPF - CEF Connect
Last Round-Trips: Item # 2 Sold 103 FBF at $22.03-Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 3/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot $19.48); Item # 4- Sold 100 FPF at $22.83 (7/5/14 Post)(profit snapshot: $56.55)
FPF Trading Profits to Date: $76.03
Goal: Harvest monthly dividends and escape at any profit on the shares.
B. Started BUSE-Bought 5 at $17.45:
Quote: First Busey Corp.
Stock Information as of Thursday 11/12:
"As of September 30, 2020, First Busey Corporation (Nasdaq: BUSE) was a $10.54 billion financial holding company headquartered in Champaign, Illinois. Busey Bank, the wholly-owned bank subsidiary of First Busey Corporation, had total assets of $10.51 billion as of September 30, 2020 and is headquartered in Champaign, Illinois. Busey Bank currently has 53 banking centers serving Illinois, ten banking centers serving Missouri, four banking centers serving southwest Florida and a banking center in Indianapolis, Indiana. Through Busey Bank’s Wealth Management division, the Company provides asset management, investment and fiduciary services to individuals, businesses and foundations. As of September 30, 2020, assets under care were approximately $9.50 billion. Busey Bank owns a retail payment processing subsidiary, FirsTech, Inc., which processes approximately 27 million transactions per year using online bill payment, lockbox processing and walk-in payments at its 4,220 agent locations in 46 states. "
Prospectus- Sold $125M 5.25% fixed-to-floating rate subordinated notes in June 2020
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share, last raised from $.20 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment. Stock Splits & Dividends › First Busey Corporation
Yield at $17.45 = 4.81%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/17/20
5 Year Financials:
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): Released after my purchase. First Busey Announces 2020 Third Quarter Earnings
E.P.S. of $.60 was 19 cents better than the consensus estimate and up from $.45 in the 2019 third quarter.
Comparisons: 2020 3rd quarter/2019 3rd quarter (adjustments explained in the press release):
NIM: 2.86%/3.35%
Efficiency Ratio: 52.42%/62.73%
Adjusted Efficiency Ratio: 49.97%/55.42%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $16.32/$15.12
NPL Ratio: .38% (excluding PPP)/.50%
NPA Ratio: .41%/.51%
Coverage Ratio: 408.82%/160%
Return on Tangible Equity: 13.92%/11.79%
Adjusted Return on Tangible Equity: 14.81%/14.5%
Return on Assets: 1.15%/1.06%
Adjusted ROA: 1.22%/1.24%
Owned and Available For Sale Debt Securities: (net unrealized gain of $53.033M)
Non-Interest Income:
See also, 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20
Prior Purchases: None
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
C. Restarted FCBC-Bought 5 at $19.2; 5 at $18.9:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25, last raised from $.21 in the 2019 first quarter.
Average Cost Per Share: $19.05 (10 Shares)
Yield at AC = 5.25%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 11/5/20 (owned as of)
5 Year Chart as of Thursday 11/12:
2020 3rd quarter/2019 3rd quarter
E.P.S. (Diluted): $.47/$.59
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $15.97/$15.43
NIM: 4.1%/4.56%
NPA and NPL ratios were a bit high but understandable under the circumstances. The coverage ratio was at 108.1% (prefer seeing a reserve build at 100% or higher when I initiate a position). The charge off ratio is better than average at .22%:
Loan Modification Information:
"In order to aid its affected customers, the Company has modified or deferred payments on 1,314 commercial loans totaling $330.69 million in principal balances and 2,048 consumer mortgage and installment loans totaling $95.76 million in principal balances. As of September 30, 2020, current commercial and consumer loan deferrals stand at $102.54 million and $13.09 million, respectively. Included in those deferral totals are re-deferrals of commercial loans with principal balances totaling approximately $69.32 million and consumer mortgage and installment loans with principal balances totaling approximately $5.09 million."
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 1 Sold 50 FCBC at 15.54 (7/23/12 Post); Item # 1 Sold 100 FCBC at $14.44 (6/21/11 Post)
FCBC Trading Profits to Date: $174.68
D. Restarted OPI-Bought 5 at $20.25; 2 at $18.95; 3 at $17.9 :
Average Cost Per Share: $19.29 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.55 per share ($2.2 annually)
Yield at AC: 11.4%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/23/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
5 Year Chart as of Thursday 11/12/20:
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
As of 9/30, 91.2% of total rentable square feet was
Deferral information:
SEC Filed Supplemental Information for the 3rd quarter:
 |
| Page 12 |
Office sector is a 'big question' says this commercial real estate veteran - MarketWatch
Bonds: I do own bonds issued by OPI and Select Income REIT which are OPI obligations. Government Properties Income Trust Announces the Completion of its Merger with Select Income REIT
Currently Owned OPI Bonds:
Item # 2.A. Bought 2 Office Properties 4% SU Maturing on 7/15/22 at a Total Cost of 98.609 (6/20/20 Post); FINRA Page
Item # 3.B. Bought 2 Select Income REIT 4.25% SU Maturing on 5/15/24 at a Total Cost of 94.149 (5/23/20 Post) Item # 1.A. Bought 2 Select Income REIT 4.25% SU Maturing on 5/15/24 at a Total Cost of 99.491 (6/14/17 Post); Bond Detail
Item # 3.A. Bought 2 Select Income REIT 4.15% SU Maturing on 2/1/22 at a Total Cost of 98.027 (5/30/20 Post); FINRA Page
Current Principal Amount: $10K with $4K maturing in 2022.
Exchange Traded $25 Par Value: Item # 3.B. Bought 10 OPINI at $18.45; 2 at $15.6 3 at $14.38 (3/21/2020 Post); Office Properties Income Trust 5.875% Senior Notes due 2046 Overview (noting that I "dislike this REIT with considerable fervor")
Prior OPI/Select Income Bond Sells:
Item # 2.A. Sold 2 Select Income REIT 4.5% SU Maturing on 2/1/25 at 102.452 (9/4/2019 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.88); Item # 3.A. Sold 2 Select Income REIT 4.5% SU Bonds (9/11/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $67.06); FINRA Page
E. Started QQQJ-Bought 5 at $26.50; 5 at $26.25:
Expense Ratio: .15%
Holdings- Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF
F. Added to ORCC-Bought 5 at $11.65:
Owl Rock Capital Corporation - Investor Relations
On July 22, 2019, the Company closed its initial public offering ("IPO"), issuing 10 million shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $15.30 per share, and on August 2, 2019, the underwriters exercised their option to purchase an additional 1.5 million shares of common stock at a purchase price of $15.30 per share."
Management: External
Buy Discussions: Item # 1.J. Added 4 ORCC at $12.02 (9/12/20 Post); Item # 4.E. Started ORCC-Bought 10 at $12.67; 1 at $12.59; 5 at $12.27 and 5 at $11.95 (6/27/2020 Post)
Average Cost Per Share this Account: $12.25 (30 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly, currently at $.31 per share ($1.24 annually), with one more special dividend of $.08.
Yield at AC = 10.12% (regular $.31 per share dividend only)
Last Reported NAV Per Share: $14.67 as of 9/30/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): This report was released after my purchase.
"As of September 30, 2020, based on fair value, our portfolio consisted of 79.2% first lien senior secured debt investments, 17.3% second lien senior secured debt investments, 0.5% unsecured investments, 1.0% investment funds and vehicles, and 2.0% equity investments."
See also: 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 (list of investments, and basic terms, starts at page 4)
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
OWL Rock $1K Par Value Bonds (currently rated Baa3/BBB-):
5.25% SU Maturing on 4/15/24
4% SU Maturing on 3/30/25
3.75% SU Maturing on 7/22/2025
I will take a look at these bonds when and if they crash in price again as they did in March 2020. I did buy several $1K par value BDC SU bonds during the crash in price period, but was unaware of these bonds until they had recovered in price.
G. Started SHBI-Bought 5 at $11.4; 5 at $10.90; 5 at $10.4:
Quote: Shore Bancshares Inc
Stock Information as of 11/13/20:
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
SEC Filed Investor Presentation November 2020:
Average Cost Per Share: $11.03 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.13, increased from $.12
Yield at AC: 4.71%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/4/20 (owned as of)
Values of Owned Securities: 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 at pp.13-14
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): This report was released after my purchase. Shore Bancshares Reports Third Quarter and Nine-Month Results or SEC Filed Press Release
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $14.69, up from $13.66 as of 9/30/19.
H. Started VNO-Bought 5 at $32.10:
Quote: Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
Stock Information as of Thursday 11/12/20:
Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy; Bond Substitute; Contrarian Value
Investor Relations | Vornado Realty Trust
Overview Portfolio | Vornado Realty Trust
Office Portfolio | Vornado Realty Trust
Street-retail Portfolio | Vornado Realty Trust
Residential Portfolio | Vornado Realty Trust
Signage Portfolio | Vornado Realty Trust
Development Portfolio | Vornado Realty Trust
Dividend: Quarterly at $.53 per share ($2.12 annually), reduced from $.66 effective for the 2020 third quarter payment. Dividend Information | Vornado Realty Trust
Yield at $32.1 = 6.6%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/6/20 (owned as of)
5 Year Chart:
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): Vornado Announces Third Quarter 2020 Financial Results and
SEC Filing: Supplemental Information for the 3rd quarter (page 24 summarizes debt and preferred stock outstanding)
See also, VNO 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 (debt listed at page 32)
I. Started PFC-Bought 5 at $18.2; 5 at $17.65:
Quote: Premier Financial Corp.
Stock Information as of Thursday 11/12:
This bank resulted from the January 2020 merger of First Defiance Financial and United Community Financial. First Defiance Financial Corp. and United Community Financial
Premier Financial is the "holding company for Premier Bank and First Insurance Group. Premier Bank, headquartered in Youngstown, Ohio, operates 78 branches, 12 loan offices and 3 wealth offices in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania and West Virginia (West Virginia office operates as “Home Savings Bank”). First Insurance Group is a full-service insurance agency with ten offices in Ohio."
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Average Cost Per Share: $17.93 (10 Shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share
Yield at AC = 4.91%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/12/20 (owned as of)
5 Year Financial History:
5 Year Chart as of Thursday 11/12/20:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filings
2020 3rd quarter/2019 3rd quarter
E.P.S. (diluted) $.69/$.69
NIM: 3.47%/3.88%
Efficiency Ratio (core): 49.9%/55.48%
Coverage Ratio: 184.01%/206.1%
NPA Ratio: .70%/.55%
Charge Off Ratio: .24%/0.0%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $16.33/$15.91
Deferral Information: Trending down
"On January 1, 2020, Premier adopted the Current Expected Credit Loss model of accounting for credit losses."
Premier Financial Corp. Announces Strong Third Quarter Earnings and $0.22 Per Share Dividend
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
J. Added to REYN-Bought 1 at $30; 2 at $29.25, 2 at $28.5; 2 at $28.20; 2 at $27.9:
 |
| Prices at Close on Thursday 11/12/20 |
Brands | Reynolds Consumer Products
Average Cost Per Share: $30.12 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share
Reynolds Consumer Products Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Yield at AC = 2.92%
Last Discussed: Item # 1.K. Started REYN-Bought 1 at $32.3; 2 at $31.9; 1 at $31.75; 1 at $31.49; 2 at $31.3; 2 at $30.8 (10/3/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): Released after my purchases. Reynolds Consumer Products Reports Third Quarter 2020 Financial Results
Consensus E.P.S. $.51 (9 analysts)
Actual: $.54 GAAP, adjusted at $.56
"Net revenues in the third quarter of 2020 were $823 million compared to $741 million in the prior year period. Growth was driven by strong demand across all business segments, reflecting the increased every day at-home use and the impact of new products."
I thought this was a solid report IMO and was disappointed that the stock did not buck the stock market's downtrend last Friday.
The weakness yesterday may be related to some comments made during the earnings call. Reynolds Consumer Products, Inc. (REYN) CEO Lance Mitchell on Q3 2020 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha ("After a stronger-than-expected third quarter, households entered October with increased inventory of our products, and we anticipate smaller gatherings around the holidays. . . Additionally, we've seen some softening of business and restaurant items sold by certain retailers as restaurant restrictions have increased.")
K. Added to PNNT-Bought 5 at $3.06; 5 at $2.92:
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket-deservedly hated BDC
Average Cost Per Share: $3.13 (20 Shares)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.O. Restarted PNNT-Bought 10 at $3.27 (9/26/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12, reduced from $.18 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment.
Yield at AC = 15.34%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/16/20
The next earnings release is scheduled for 11/19. I will discuss it in a comment.
L. Added to BXMX-Bought 10 at $10.96:
Quote: BXMX | Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund Overview-A CEF
Closing Price 11/12: BXMX $11.82 -$0.05 -0.42%
This fund seeks "an attractive total return with less volatility than the S & P 500 Index". The fund sells index call options "covering approximately 100% of the Fund's equity portfolio value." (emphasis added)
Last Discussed:Item # 2 Bought 100 BXMX at $11 (6/27/20 Post)
Sponsor's Website: BXMX - Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report: Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund (6 month period ending 6/30/20)
Average Cost Per Share: $11 (113+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly, last one was $.2151 per share ($.86 annually)
Yield: 7.82% (assuming $.86 per share annual rate)
Last Ex Dividend: 9/14/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, given the current discount to net asset value per share
Data Date of 11/2/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $12.8Closing Market Price: $10.93
Discount: -14.61 %
Sourced: BXMX-CEF Connect (click "pricing information" tab)
The dividend is substantially supported by ROC. Understanding Return of Capital
M. Pared DUK-Sold 4 at $95.5 (highest cost lot-FIFO):
DUK Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
Position This Account Before Pare-Average cost = $83.4
New Average Cost After Pare: $82.28 (21 shares)
Profit Snapshot: +$24.39 (11/3/20 sell only)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.965 ($3.86 annually)
Dividend Yield at New AC = 4.69%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/12/20
Dividend Reinvestment: No, view the current price as too high.
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.A. Added 1 DUK at $81.69; 1 at $79.25 (9/19/20 Post)
Small Ball Trading Strategy Example: Item # 1.J. Pared DUK-Sold 2 at $91.81 and Bought 1 at $84.3; 1 at $82.78; 1 at $80.64; 1 at $79.63; 1 at $78.6 (7/3/2020 Post)
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): Released after this last pare.
N. Started EBIX-Bought 8 at an Average Cost Per Share of $20.72 and Sold Highest Cost 3 Shares at $28.05 :
Quote: Ebix, Inc.
Stock Information as of Thursday 11/12/20 :
"Ebix, Inc., and its subsidiaries, (“Ebix” or the “Company”) is a leading international supplier of on-demand infrastructure exchanges to the insurance, financial, travel, payment remittances, and healthcare industries. In the insurance sector, the Company’s main focus is to develop and deploy a wide variety of insurance and reinsurance exchanges on an on-demand basis using software-as-a-service ("SaaS") enterprise solutions in the areas of customer relationship management ("CRM"), front-end and back-end systems, and outsourced administrative and risk compliance. . . With a "Phygital” strategy that combines physical distribution outlets in many Association of Southeast Asian Nations ("ASEAN") countries to an Omni-channel online digital platform, the Company’s EbixCash Financial exchange portfolio of software and services encompasses domestic and international money remittance, foreign exchange ("Forex"), travel, pre-paid gift cards, utility payments, lending, and wealth management in India and other Southeast Asian markets. . . . International revenue accounted for
Bought 8:
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 11/9/20: Average Cost = $20.72 |
Sold 3 at $28.05:
Profit Snapshot (3 Shares): +$19.71
This pare reduced my average cost per share from $20.72 to $20.27.
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Investor Relations Website: Ebix
Part of this firm's business has been adversely impacted by less travel.
5 Year Chart as of Thursday 11/20/20:
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"Revenue: Q3 2020 revenue increased 5% to $154.3 million compared to $147.2 million in Q3 2019, and increased 39% over Q2 2020 revenue of $111.3 million, primarily due to a market-leading insurance exchange business and strong demand for our payment solutions in India. Excluding revenues from the foreign exchange, travel, e-learning and remittance businesses that were impacted the most by COVID-19, Q3 2020 revenues grew 55% as compared to Q3 2019.
On a constant currency basis, Ebix Q3 2020 revenues would have been $5.9 million higher, while the year-to-date revenues would have been $15.9 million higher as compared to the GAAP revenues numbers reported. Exchanges, including the EbixCash and our worldwide insurance exchanges, continued to be Ebix’s largest channel, accounting for 90% of Q3 2020 revenues."
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
The Stock Jocks today did manage to take out the previous SPX intraday and closing highs hit on 9/2.
ReplyDeleteClosing S & P 500: 3,585.15 +48/14
Intraday High at 3,593.66
The value stock ETFs outperformed growth.
Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF (VTV)
$114.26 +$2.11 (+1.88%)
Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares (VUG)
$238.19 +$1.84 (+0.78%)
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
$47.17 +$1.36 (+2.97%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KRE?p=KRE&.tsrc=fin-srch
KRE closed at $41.36 last Friday and was up
14.05% for the week.
QQQ closed last Friday (11/9) at $294.61 and at $290.93 today.
There is an ongoing rotation into value stocks which is consistent with the market hitting a new high, since both movements are predicated on a forecast that the pandemic will soon be in the rear view mirror and growth stocks will start to lose their economic headwind flowing therefrom at a time when many have nose bleed valuations. While the pandemic may end up fading into the sunset by next spring or early summer, the Stock Jocks are confident in saying "problem solved, get over it" and that pent up demand will propel 2021 GDP growth much higher than economists are predicting now.
With the surge in regional bank stocks and other out-of-favor sectors, value pockets in the stock market have diminished forcing me to find more Lotto special situations and stocks that have been left behind for no good reason that I can discern. Those require more work than say buying 55 regional bank stocks, where I had a pre-existing familiarity.
+++
I started a small ball "buying program" in Flowers Food (FLO) which started to decline on 11/6 after reporting earnings last week that looked okay to me. I am foggy on how many shares I own, but I believe that I bought 4 five share lots in my Schwab taxable account.
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)
$22.29 +$0.01 (+0.04%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FLO?p=FLO
The close on 11/5 was at $24.41.
Earnings Press Release:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1128928/000119312520287335/d91758dex991.htm
GAAP net income has several special expense items in it.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.20
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/flowers-foods-declares-dividend-301172773.html
Current consensus E.P.S (non-GAAP) for 2020: $1.26
P/E at $22.29: 17.69
I would classify valuation at being near the top end of a reasonable valuation range with good dividend support in today's low yield environment.
My last buy was 5 shares at $22.2 and will continue at that pace provided each subsequent purchase is at the lowest price in the chain.
Price to Sales Ratio: 1.10
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FLO/key-statistics?p=FLO
Website:
https://www.flowersfoods.com/
When I checked my accounts this morning, I noticed that $4K in bonds had been redeemed early and another $6K were redeemed at maturity which was scheduled for 11/15 and Fidelity has already credit my account. I am not likely to invest those proceeds anytime soon. The money will just be added to the cash pile.
ReplyDeleteI read an article published at Marketwatch that listed 20 of Wall Street's favorite value stocks.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-wall-streets-20-favorite-value-stocks-11605030782?mod=mw_latestnews
Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN) discussed in this post is one of them. I would classify that stock as currently being priced in a reasonable value range. REYN is a hit a single kind of stock, meaning that the dividend + a rationally forecasted annual appreciation in the price (assuming investors will be rational, which is not an assumption that I will make) could produce a 6% to 10% annual average total return.
Another stock on that list is FNF which I initiated last week with a 5 share purchase at $33.8.
Fidelity National Financial Inc. (FNF)
$34.56 +$0.97 +2.89%
Dividend Quarterly at $.36 per share
Yield about 4.17%
Consensus 2020 E.P.S. $4.57
Likely slightly negative, flat, or slightly positive earnings growth IMO based on what is known now and a rational future forecast
FNF is a title insurance company. Business activity in that sector has perked up due to the low mortgage rates.
Last Earnings report summary:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3631606-fidelity-national-financial-eps-beats-0_25-beats-on-revenue?mod=mw_quote_news
Some of the "value" stocks listed in that Marketwatch article are not viewed by me as value stocks. I try to keep an open mind, but some claims just do not hold water for a fact based investor.
Peloton Interactive is listed even though the consensus E.P.S. for 2020 is negative and the stock closed a $100.79 last Friday with close to a $30B market cap at that price. Robust E.P.S. growth (non-GAAP) is estimated for 2021 (+$.32); 2022 ($.71); and 2023 ($1.5). The belief, based on the current stock price is that kind of growth will happen and will continue for another decade or so after 2023 IMO.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pton/analystestimates?mod=mw_quote_tab
But what is Peloton's moat that would allow it grow that fast. Competitors have and will continue to emerge.
And, what will happen when the pandemic ends and people feel comfortable going back into gyms for their workouts? The odds IMO that the future forecast embedded in the current price will be achieved is low, probably bordering on the irrational. So it is not a value stock IMO.
If I had $30B laying around, which of course is not the case, I would not buy this company at $100 a share and take it private so that I could enjoy the profits for the next 20 years, let alone pay a premium to the current price.
You were "now" resistant to writing more? I wasn't sure what it was saying.
ReplyDeleteYour blog will have a whole big section missing when Donald is relegated to tabloid youtube videos. I won't miss the topic. It will take some getting used to.
Those are some interesting ideas (your choices). I've assumed Peloton is one of the pandemic stocks. Also a few sweat clothes companies benefited. Are they calling it value rather than growth because it adds value to your life and keeps you from growing too much?
Friday started out looking strongly like rotation. But it didn't even do that. Then QQQ came back too. So it was an exuberance day.
I wonder if Jeremy Grantham is as legendary as they say. If so he's making a big point. Any thoughts?
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-investing-legend-jeremy-grantham-bubble-crazy-rally-2020-11-1029801632
One of my high yield deposit checking accounts went from 2.00% down to 1.5%. Not worth it. (You have to do 10 charges a month, plus other hoops you can put on automatic.)
The santa claus rally and year end repostioning should be coming? I don't know the usual timing of either. Black Friday is now black month. Companies are avoiding the superspreader effect and offering deals all month online.
Land: Typing "not" when I mean "now" is one of my standard brain malfunctions.
ReplyDeletePeloton: Put a computer on top of an exercise machine, connect to the internet and wow what a concept.
https://www.onepeloton.com/
Donald will not just be another crackpot when he leaves office. He will remain the unchallengeable leader of his party for many years to come.
Looks like he will end up with about 10 million more votes than he had in 2016.
2016 for Trump: 62,980,160
2020 73,069,799 still counting, a really frightening number
I am wondering how his hair turned from orange to sort of whitish.
With the pandemic surging in North and South Dakota, now is the time to join them into one state (population about 1.646M combined) -maybe no one will notice.
I would agree with Grantham, though I would emphasize that stock market bubbles can have extended shelf lives.
The Nikkei 225 index is an example (move left cursor all the way to the left):
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225
I classified that one as being in a bubble in 1985 as I recall, but its parabolic move up continued to the end of 1989.
So calling a bubble early is not IMO disproven by a continued spike in stock indexes. The question is not ultimately whether the market is in a bubble but how to continue playing a parabolic spike higher that is hard to justify using traditional valuation measures.
I was looking at the holding of the Fidelity Magellan fund a few days ago before starting a $100 position as a placeholder. The P/E ratios were just eye popping.
You can view them here:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/fmagx/portfolio
Scroll down to Holdings and click "show more holdings".
I remember you said you've got the not-now glitch installed. I splurged and got a bigger glitch package :-).
DeleteI don't get the appeal of Peloton either at that cost. The business doesn't have a moat.
"not just be another crackpot when he leaves office. He will remain the unchallengeable leader of his party"
True and scary. It's why the election was as depressing as it was good news.
But hoping the # of dedicated followers sinks to the usual 25% fringe of society that always exists, especially if info comes out about him. I'm not holding my breath though.
I missed the shift to white hair. Guess my dedication to muting when he comes on, has worked. Now I'm curious and will have to sneak a peak.
Was it N & S Dakota that Trump informed were two, when he meant 3 Nebraska electoral college votes? I'll support merging them into a fraction of most state's population...
This is interesting that the Nikkei bubble was 3-4 years. There's a few dips along the way that would have made it very confusing. I was first becoming aware of investing and the big names that did well, figured out when to short the Nikkei, that year. Much better than shorting it all the way up.
So this is eye opening news. I had assumed bubbles lasted 1 year into 2. Similar to pre 2000 and 2008.
What about playing it by putting a limited stop. Once you have takeoff (which can be tricky), you let it ride. Take the initial investment and small amount of profits as it climbs. And let it ride. Keep moving the stop limit to keep some profit but allow for pullbacks.
I'd like to have that problem to play with!!!
---
There will be an obvious logic to apply to this this market, in retrospect. For 2000 it was obvious right before that lack of earnings should matter to buying stocks. In 2008 it was obvious right before that housing prices were out of line. Though in the year or 2, before on both of those it wasn't really that obvious.
I don't see an obvious here. Maybe it's a little far off. Except it feels like with all the "events"... there is a message here to live by. But I'm not spotting it. I spotted the 2000 & 2008 messages.
FG's isn't a bad one - look for company's predicting future increases in concrete ways, and consider them the growing market and separate from the rest of the market.
If one bought in from around Feb 88 until Oct 90, you wouldn't get your money back to this day.
DeleteThe current spx doesn't look quite as ridiculous.
Land: I would prefer a 50% rapid decline in the market but will settle for continuing my small ball approach focusing mostly on 4% or higher yielding stocks that are within what I consider a reasonable valuation range. I am entertaining myself more with Lotto buys.
DeleteThe growth stock mania is being played mostly through funds.
I am frequently selling highest cost lots into price spikes that lowers my average cost per share and increases my dividend yield. That is one risk control technique that I use.
I will eliminate a position, no matter how small, if I do not like an earnings report.
Recent history has shown that stocks can collapse suddenly. So far each of those spikes down could be bought since the recovery to new highs was relatively swift. Buying the dip at some point will only result in more losses.
I know first hand what it is like to have no alternatives now other than stocks. Sitting on cash earning .01% is not a pleasant experience.
Thanks for the insights. Those do seem like good ways to deal with this type of situation.
DeleteI'm so used to the buy the dip working, I haven't been part of a rapid decline that didn't recover.
The lack of interest is a huge problem.
I just finished reading another Marketwatch article listing 14 value stock recommendations.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-value-stocks-that-top-performing-investment-newsletters-like-the-most-11605285124?mod=article_inline
This one was written by Mark Hulbert and is based on recommendations made by value focused newsletters that he rates as top performers.
This list is more like my approach as judged by the number of stocks that I have already own out of the 14 listed: IBM, UNM,VIAC,SU,FITB, T, and KEY.
Lol, yes those are more like value stocks.
DeleteLand: I have been able to contain my enthusiasm for all of the ones that I mentioned owning. UNM was a recent buy at $16.2, but only 5 shares. I will discuss it in the next post.
DeleteI don't know... you may go on a buying spree at any moment...
DeleteI splurged ...on some diet ice cream. It was on sale, so I bought two containers.
I may buy some UNM. I wouldn't buy a policy from them. But maybe some stock.
They look great. I'm looking forward to what the problems are. Super low PE. Reasonable chart point. High div. Low payout and no noticeable debt.
Earnings up 120% this year. So they won't look at good next year? This is interesting to dig into!
I see earnings misses. Several articles later and none describe what missed. Time to sleep... Maybe tomorrow I'll understand if it's a problem or not.
DeleteAh, the transcript gets to it...
Deletehttps://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/10/28/unum-group-unm-q3-2020-earnings-call-transcript/
Land: You can also find the earnings call transcripts at SeekingAlpha which is where I go to review them.
Deletehttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4382114-unum-group-unm-ceo-rick-mckenney-on-q3-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript
Unum's results will be erratic which is normal for insurance companies.
The company did miss the consensus E.P.S. for the third quarter by 9 or 10 cents, depending on the service that aggregated the analyst estimates.
About 9 cents of the E.P.S. hit was due to "after-tax costs related to an organizational design update of $18.6 million."
I doubt the analysts factored that charge into their estimates, but the only way to know is to ask them.
Instead of focusing on minor hits or misses to consensus E.P.S. estimates for UNUM, my focus was on the dividend yield at my cost and the trailing P/E ratio using 12 month GAAP actual earnings and the forward P/E using estimated earnings that are normally non-GAAP.
If you go to Marketwatch's page for UNM, click analyst estimates, the 12 month trailing E.P.S. is $5.4 which generates a P/E of 3 using my $16.2 cost. The forward estimate for 2021 is $5.45 and $5.95 for 2022.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/unm/analystestimates?mod=mw_quote_tab
In comparison, the trailing 12 month P/E for the S & P 500 was 40.37 as of 11/13/20 with a forward P/E using 25.65 estimated 12 month non-GAAP earnings.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
The dividend yield on SPX is about 1.7%.
UNM took an earnings hit in 2019 from its "long term care" insurance product that is no longer being offered to individuals.
quote from 2019 annual report:
"Included in the 2018 results is a reserve increase related to our long-term care block of business of $750.8 million before tax and $593.1 million after tax, or $2.70 per diluted common share."
Page 34:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/5513/000000551319000004/unm12312018-10xk.htm
Based on my review of 2020 earnings reports, that reserve appears to be adequate IMO.
See page 8:
"We discontinued offering individual long-term care in 2009 and group long-term care in 2012, other than features contractually allowable on existing group policies. Group long-term care was previously offered to employers for the benefit of employees. Individual long-term care was previously marketed on a single-life customer basis."
It was that part of UNM's business that kept me away from the stock until just recently. I only nibbled after the company took a reserve hit in 2019 and then looked at subsequent history of this closed block business in earnings reports.
E.g Last Report-Scroll to "Closed Block Segment":
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/5513/000000551320000151/unm09302020exhibit991.htm
Kind of over my head. Meaning I don't have an immediate sense of long term care business being a plus to income - or how much that they are losing. Nor it being a problem to jettison... though I know a lot of insurance companies stopped selling because they couldn't price it affordably and cover people living longer.
DeleteIt's not like Garmin where I read their report and understood they were doing well and why...
So this is all very interesting and a helpful breakdown.
I don't know what one of these is: ""after-tax costs related to an organizational design update of $18.6 million.""
Sounds like when IBM decided that all the adjuncts to a project should be stationed with the project. So put the tech writer, and performance analysis, so on, with the programming team. Then they decided each specialty should group together in their own departments, tech writing ect.. I moved my office stuff a lot each time.
So if their organization expenses are a problem to their business they aren't a buy. Though Sounds kind of no-big-deal one time cost, and so fine to buy.
I didnt' buy today. The end of day rally really surprised me. Unless there was some news I missed. Moderna was I thought after hours. It's easier to store (less cold) and a 2nd one with high efficiency so should spark excitement.
I was busy today collecting medical records... and I got my teeth cleaned! New dentist (mine retired before all this.) It wasn't safe. I did 1st appt of the day. She wore a mask. But no plastic shield. I would have liked her to. If she was sick, this was close enough for exposure even with her mask. I do think one could have worn the mask over the nose and let them work in the mouth. I noticed I was breathing through my mouth. I didn't have courage to suggest it. In six months things will be better... I hope.
Land: I see a number of people wearing masks that obviously provide no protection.
DeleteSingle layer cloth masks provide little protection and some are actually dangerous to others when the infected person sneezes or coughs. A neck garter, for example, was tested by researchers at Drake University who found that it did not block droplets and created more smaller droplets that hand in the air longer.
I use a triple layer cloth mask. I disinfect by leaving them out in the sun for several hours and washing with soap occasionally.
I am avoiding dentists for now. I cancelled a teeth cleaning appointment. I would have to have a noticeable problem that required attention before going.
I do not have a long term care insurance policy. They are expensive and generally require the policy owner to jump through hoops to receive payments. I had an uncle who had one. He passed before receiving the full benefits and would have been better off investing the premiums. The insurance carrier required a medical exam to determine whether the criteria were met for coverage.
I considered UNM today. You got in at a much better price at $16 than it's current $21+.
DeleteIt still looks good at this price. Still down a lot with no clear reason I see beyond the general economy. And lot of strength to the company fundamentals.
Does death rates going up marginally per company effect their bottomline? I'm not seeing evidence or worry about that. But it's the only reason I can think of for the market's worry.
It's been over a year since last cleaning. Cases aren't up too badly right now here but are headed that way so it'd be a window.
DeleteIt's been a day & a half and my gums still hurt. They never do after a cleaning. I'd started to be really bothered, i.e. a pattern, so this is telling me I was right that it was getting to a problem point. I'd had to skip a cleaning last year during the false diagnosis (and wound up with a cavity to fill), so may have been more susceptible this time around.
Fun note, the dentist verified that a water pik can nearly replace flossing according to studies. I have no intention of replacing. But I have a pik & will start using it. (I fixed it this afternoon, hose piece had cracked.)
So that's done, can't re-decide...
I've been using disposable paper masks. The plus is when I lose one, I'm not too worried. On my walk yesterday is was gone from my pocket. I backtracked, and it'd snagged on a low bush, fluttering around. Doubt the deer would have appreciated it.
Land: I do not see death rates as having a material impact. The primary negative impact flowing from the pandemic would be the restraint on marketing their products.
DeleteSome disability policy holders no doubt have made claims due to Covid causing a disability, but then others may have died in the hospital before collecting a dime.
I did buy UNM in a second Roth IRA account today. I now own in two IRAs and 1 taxable.
An example of a pare that I did today was to sell 15 CXP at $13.96, the highest cost lot in my Fidelity account, that reduced my average cost per share to $11.66 from $11.99. Lower average cost shares are held in other accounts.
That's so... the difficulty selling does seem to come up in their writeup rather than death rates. The longer effect may be under considered.
DeleteI'm less tempted by CXP with it's earning reduction, hit by covid.
Hello SG, have not written u in a long time, but still reading; trump probably owes hi hairdresser more than 70k and so his hair is now gray as u point out!
ReplyDeleteI wonder what u presently thought of the risk in intermediate muni bond funds; I see the fed kept the hi yield fallen angel bond market alive with ETF buys and I expect they do not want to damage all those police and teacher state and municipality pensions, so I wonder what you thought of a Muni bond intermediate fund to get a little more yield with Fed protection? thanks
ps, keep up the Trump section and your posts..
G: I owned a few years ago the Vanguard Intermediate Municipal Bond Fund (VWITX):
Deletehttps://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VWITX
The yield on that one is about 1.07% now with a duration of 4.8 years, so a 1% move up in rates for that portfolio would result in about a 4.8% loss in net asset value per share or close to 5 years of interest. I am not interested in locking in a negative real rate of return based on the coupon, hoping that further declines in interest rates will allow me to earn a more acceptable return through share price appreciation.
I started in 2017 to buy Tennessee municipal bonds and they have increased substantially in value. In effect, they will turn into intermediate term bonds since the issuers will exercise their optional call rights at par value. I will lose the first one in 2022. I am not interested in buying them now since the risk/reward balance IMO is out-of-kilter with the bonds selling at significant premiums to par value and providing negligible current yields.
So I am saying that 1% is not worth the risk of principal loss to me.
One thing to remember about a fund is that there is no maturity date. If I bought an individual bond, I would always have the option to hold until maturity and receive the par value. With a fund, and during a period of rising interest rates, the only option to stop the principle losses is to sell the fund at a loss.
So far in pre-market trading, there is a noticeable divergence in value and growth stocks in favor of value in response to Moderna's vaccine news.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201116005608/en/
The interim analysis shows the vaccine to be 94.5% effective. Out of 30,000+ participants, there were 95 Covid infections with 90 of those in the placebo group. Among the 5 who contracted an infection after receiving the vaccine, none had serious cases.
Pre Market:
E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index Continuous Contract
11,921.25 -12.25 -0.10%
E-Mini DJIA Continuous Contract
29,897 +487 +1.66%
Last Updated: Nov 16, 2020 at 6:58 a.m. CST
Of the major indexes, the DJIA tilts more to value than growth.
thanks for answer ; rates as u have pointed out are very sobering; the Jihad continues; the vaccine news is good but people who think all they need to do is go to the Doc's office are in for a surprise, given the logistics of transporting the MRNA vaccines! At Least Biden will have a real plan! For the third world, hopefully, the developed countries will not forget them!
Deletehttps://www.ft.com/content/52d40ce8-4f6b-4068-8c48-b98fa0f7740b
"Moderna said Monday its vaccine remains stable at 36 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit, the temperature of a standard home or medical refrigerator, for up to 30 days. It can be stored for up to six months at negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit. By comparison, Pfizer’s vaccine requires a storage temperature of minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit." CNBC
DeleteIt is hard to believe the discrepancy between the storage temperatures of the 2 similar vaccines; docs will need freezers and a lot of refrigeration to be put in the office and don't know who will foot the bill.
Covid is crushing cardiac programs, etc. in some smaller hospitals as hospital chains cut back on expenses and close and centralize programs and general practitioners are losing patients because they can not refer to their local hospitals; so the look and quality of medicine will be different when this terrible and poorly handled infection is over.
Oh it was news before today's market. That wasn't much of a rally on the news. Now I don't know what the end of the day rally was about at all except exuberance.
DeleteThe stock pickings are becoming thinner by the day.
ReplyDeleteI am now faced with the prospect of averaging up rather than down provided I want to move cash off the sidelines.
In my Fidelity taxable account, I did average up today with the BDC Solar Capital (SLRC)which did not move much:
Solar Capital
$17.38 +$0.12 +0.70%
DIVIDEND Quarterly at $0.41
Yield 9.44%
EX-DIVIDEND DATE 12/16/20
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/slrc
My previous average cost in that account was at $16.23 and is now at $17.25.
Other BDCs had a more energetic rally today. OFS and SCM were up 9.33% and 11.6% respectively.
On 11/10,SLRC was downgraded by WFC from overweight to equal weight with a $17.25 PT.
I do not have access to that report, but the Wells Fargo BDC analyst does carry some weight.
The last quarterly report, which apparently sparked the downgrade, appeared to be okay IMO.
Net Asset Value Per Share: $20.14 (up from $20.11 as of 6/30/20)
NII: $.34, below the dividend of $.41 (so that is a concern)
The investment portfolio was 100% performing.
E.P.S. was $.44 but that includes unrealized gains on investments.
SLRC just acquired Kingsbridge Holdings, "a lessor of essential-use equipment to predominantly investment grade counterparties", and expects that acquisition to generate $20M of gross income next year.
See discussion at page 2 of Earnings Transcript:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4386141-solar-capital-ltd-slrc-ceo-michael-gross-on-q3-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=2
The dividend coverage is discussed at page 11. The company still has around $700M in liquidity to deploy. For 2020 the dividend was supported by ROC and that will continue into 2021 unless it is cut.
BDCs have had a tough environment to navigate this year.
+++
Some of the Trumpsters living in South Dakota, who have been hospitalized with Covid, continue to maintain that it is not real even those who are dying from it.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/south-dakota-emergency-room-nurse-says-some-patients-insist-covid-19-isnt-real-even-as-theyre-dying-from-it-2020-11-16?mod=home-page
There was a news program on those S. Dakota patients. The staffer said it was hard to watch people struggling with so much anger at the end. It's like being in a cult and realizing you've been had.
DeleteThe other CNN guests had not seen this in their patients in their separate areas.
I've avoided BDCs. The ones I owned avoided me by going bankrupt or near it and changing names.
Land: BDCs are a tough sector, with several crash and burns.
DeleteAnd, the stock prices will crash when there is a recession which can present buying opportunities among those likely to survive.
For example, one of the better externally managed BDCs, at least so far, is TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp (TPVG) which closed yesterday at $12.57:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tpvg
During March 2020, the price hit $2.8. The current dividend yield for a purchase made at $2.8 is 50%.
My approach is to trade them hoping to earn a total return in excess of the dividend yield. I have successfully done that will most of them but not all.
+++
The South Dakota nurse wrote that her Covid patients scream at her " for a magic medicine and that Joe Biden is going to ruin the USA. All while gasping for breath on 100% Vapotherm. They tell you there must be another reason they are sick. They call you names and ask why you have to wear all that 'stuff' because they don’t have COVID because it’s not real."
Somewhat facetiously, I have noted that it is possible that some Trump cult members will recognize the existence of climate change shortly before they burn to a crisp from the sun's rays.
It is important to accept the fact that 73+M Americans wanted to give Donald, a raging autocratic and sociopathic demagogue, incapable of being truthful and the foremost spreader of fact free conspiracy theories, another 4 years as President.
While Don the Authoritarian will lose the election by about 6 million votes, that is irrelevant under the U.S. constitution. He actually lost the election by about 80,000 votes scattered in four states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin.
Cultism has strong grips. It can lead to mass suicide.
DeleteThough of all of this I remember a study in the 90's about terrorist suicide bombers. Extremist groups were able to take reasonably stable, normal people, and convert them into suicide bombers in 9 months. From recruitment to training at their camps to bombings.
This country desperately needs to change the electoral balance. What decides the electoral votes per state? We can improve greatly by improving that balance, without a full amendment to get rid of the whole system.
Land: The electoral college method for electing the President is required by the Constitution. Each state is assigned electoral votes that represent the sum of its House and Senate members. The only way to change that system is through an Amendment which requires a 2/3rds vote from Congress to approve and then an approval from 3/4ths of the states. Neither will ever happen. Trump's party knows that their primary path to control over the executive branch, perhaps their only one going forward, is through the electoral college, not the popular vote which they would not accept anyway.
DeleteThe same anti-democratic process is enshrined by giving each state 2 senators regardless of population. That is not going to change either since it would require an Amendment.
I am a bit fuzzy on the history, but the coalition to form the country required a lot of concessions to the slave holding and less populous southern states.
Sigh, I figured the ratio was coming from somewhere that's not change-able.
DeleteThe biggest hope is that Lincoln type groups run a 3rd party GOP alternative that syphons off enough votes for a DNC trifecta or even a new-(old)-GOP and DNC agreeement on how to improve the mess.
According to an article published this evening by the NYT, the generals talked Donald out of a military attack on Iran.
ReplyDeleteHe was upset that Iran reportedly stockpiled 5,345 of low-enriched uranium which is more than allowed under the nuclear accord reached during the Obama administration. The accord was scrapped by Trump who thereafter imposed sanctions. The idea is that Iran had to honor the agreement even when the U.S. walked away from it and took actions inconsistent with its terms.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-talked-out-of-attacking-irans-nuclear-facilities-last-week-report-11605577420?mod=mw_latestnews
++
National Bankshares (NKSH) declared its second semi-annual dividend, increasing the penny rate 7.5% from what was paid last year.
http://www.nationalbankshares.com/content.aspx?ContentID=15705
++
Capital Southwest (CSWC) is doing another partial redemption of its exchange trade senior bond traded under the symbol CSWCL.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/17313/000001731320000110/ex991-noticeofpartialr.htm
My shares subject to the redemption have already been segregated by Schwab and Vanguard.
+++
Pfizer declined today in response to Moderna's vaccine news. The Moderna vaccine can be kept at much lower temperatures.
Pfizer $37.33 -$1.29 -3.34%
"Pfizer's vaccine must be kept at nearly minus 100 degrees Fahrenheit to remain effective."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vaccine-covid-19-pfizer-cold-storage-logistics-nightmare/
That does not seem practical to me for mass distributions.
After the bell, Berkshire disclosed that it has bought 3.7M PFE shares.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012320012127/xslForm13F_X01/0000950123-20-012127-1653.xml
Berkshire bought PFE? I think I will buy more too.
DeleteIt's the more mature company with a vaccine coming, even if it needs special temps. Moderna's 1st report was welcomed then sank on being questioned.
I've wondered what behind the scenes arrangements Trump has especially in MENA. He's bent against Iran. It doesn't make sense. He like dictatorships. Why is this the one that turns him off... even now? Who owes who money and get something out of it?
I think Iran's still in the deal with EU countries. So it'd be in violation. But that doesn't give Trump any oversight or conrol since he left the deal. Which goes back to wondering if he's up to anything.
Beyond scaring the generals badly with his questions on war options.
"Amazon jumps into the pharmacy business with online prescription fulfillment, free delivery for Prime members"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/amazon-pharmacy-free-prescription-delivery-for-prime-members.html
Bad news for CVS and Walgreens.
WMT beat expectations aided by a 79% surge in e-commerce revenues.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/walmart-wmt-q3-2021-earnings-.html
However, the Commerce Department reported that October U.S. retail sales rose .3% vs. the estimate of .5%, and that may be pressuring stock indexes so far in pre-market trading.
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract
3,597.00 -26.00 -0.74%
Last Updated: Nov 17, 2020 at 7:47 a.m. CST
+++
Land: Iran does not have to worry about forceful reactions from Russia and European signatories to that accord. Only the U.S. reaction is important and potentially threatening on a military basis.
The accord is effectively dead since most countries are honoring U.S. sanctions so there is no reason why Iran would comply since the economic damage, short of military intervention, is already happening.
I don't currently own any retail pharmacies.
DeleteI wonder if it's put pressure on drug companies. Amazon has a way of forcing manufacturers in other sectors to reduce their prices.
Yay, even with EU and Iran still officially in the deal it's irrelevant if they're honoring the US sanctions.
Iran never had to worry about Russia.
It's very curious why news of Iran building up, is coming right now. There's a couple years in which this has to have been happening. So build up could have been reported more noticeably all along.
A couple months ago, I'd seen complaints about Iran's limitations on some weapons coming very soon. I hadn't checked exactly which sunset clause it was - it wasn't full nuclear though. (AJC's been talking about it.)
This all is a little worrisome on what Trump's planning to do before leaving.
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
ReplyDelete$36.34 +$0.95 (+2.68%)
As of 10:41AM ES
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PFE/history?p=PFE
Pfizer closed yesterday at $37.33.
The reason that it is up today 95 cents at $36.94 has to do with its spinoff of Upjohn.
Upjohn was combined with Mylan to form a new company called Viatris (VTRS) which is currently trading:
Viatris Inc (VTRS)
$17.59 +$1.93 (+12.32%)
As of 10:45AM EST.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTRS?p=VTRS&.tsrc=fin-srch
As part of the spinoff transaction, "Pfizer stockholders received approximately 0.124079 shares of Viatris common stock for every one share of Pfizer common stock held as of the close of business on the record date (which was November 13, 2020)"
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201116005378/en/
Generally, in this kind of transaction, cash is received in lieu of fractional shares. The taxable cost basis for the Pfizer shares that received the distribution will be adjusted lower to account for it.
OOOOH. That explains the VTRS that magically appeared in my stock list, 5 shares. I thought it was a losing BDC changing names again.
DeletePFE was down today so I put in an order afterhours for 35.85 that didn't fill. I missed during the day. It may go down more, so I didn't want to be aggressive at buying.
Even with today's sell down, I didn't wind up buying anything....
Land: The cost basis for the PFE shares will be changed. You can compare what you paid for the shares with what the broker is currently showing now or in a few days as the revised cost basis.
DeleteI sold my PFE and will simply look for an opportunity to buy back at a lower price. I do not view the vaccine as a material event for Pfizer given the price, cost of development and the competition from other vaccines.
I am engaged in an active though immaterial paring of positions through selling my highest cost lots, which continued today for securities that continued to rally.
So you're in sell mode, in general, and with PFE. Hum.
DeleteThat may explain.... why I didn't see much reason to buy stuff today.
Land: A more appropriate description is that I am doing closing to nothing other than sitting on my keyster watching my money grow at .01% in my sweep accounts.
DeleteWhen the market gets to a point where reasonable buying isn't available... does it tend to do something there?
DeleteThough one might argue that some down trodden stocks are buyable such as airlines.
I haven't listened to CNBC in a while to see what mode they are in.
But what happens when there is less reasonableness to buying?
When housing prices and loans got unreasonable I didn't buy. I looked foolish at first. In the end, I was very lucky that I stuck with my good senses instead of jumping in.
DeleteLand: I am more of stickler for price than many investors. The fact that I am running low on options does not mean that the Stock Jocks have lost their fervor. Then there is the issue of what is the alternative to stocks, a kind of question when answered leads to market bubbles as traditional methods for valuing businesses are thrown to the wayside on the alter of what will make me money this minute.
DeleteI have not buying any regional bank stocks lately, and continued to pare highest cost lots today. I will start to discuss those pares in my first December post.
I vaguely recall adding 5 FLO at $21.85 which may have been my only buy in a taxable account.
That points to an important distinction... 2008 & 2000 bubbles were over 'new' adventures or areas that could suddenly make big money.
DeleteThey weren't "nothing else to invest in" bubbles.
Tech currently is a little of both. But most of the market isn't. I'll have to get a temp read by putting on CNBC and seeing if they're finding stuff still.
FLO is Flower Food. I'm skipping it, but watching to see what happens. It's at July's support, so could bounce here.
Land: I am up to 25 FLO shares, buying in 5 shares lots with each subsequent buy having to be at the lowest price in the chain. The stock has dividend support, but is near the top end of what I would call a reasonable valuation range.
DeleteCXP is an office REIT. That sector has been rallying strongly based on the vaccine news, but the rally is in the context of being smashed due to the pandemic.
Columbia Property Trust Inc.
$13.94 +0.65 +4.89%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cxp
The important number for a REIT is not GAAP earnings but cash flow that results from adjusting GAAP net income by depreciation expense and other items.
The last two reports were satisfactory IMO particularly under the circumstances.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3628701-columbia-property-trust-ffo-beats-0_05-beats-on-revenue
Press Release:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201029006211/en/
The pare is motivated by small ball trading rules developed by Left Brain that the Old Geezer must follow or lose his head, just like Steve Bannon recommended for Fauci and the FBI Director with their severed heads stuck on a pike.
That hit a nerve with me since one of my ancestors with my name had his head removed by King Henry VIII and placed on a pike situated on London Bridge.
Bannon's call had to hit a nerve. But add a relative with same name to whom it'd happen and that's a whole another level of nerve.
DeleteI was shaken that Bannon came up with that, and that he'd been part of orchestrating our "government."
It lends credence to the complaint of domestic violence.
https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/293532-bannons-ex-wife-he-didnt-want-the-girls-going-to-school
As expected, Donald fired the Department of Homeland Security chief Chris Krebs for doing his job.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/trump-says-us-cybersecurity-chief-chris-krebs-has-been-terminated.html
The agency headed by Krebs had been debunking Don the Authoritarian's false claims about the election.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/trump-says-us-cybersecurity-chief-chris-krebs-has-been-terminated.html
It is important to recognize that Trump and his party are in a full assault mode on the foundations of American democracy. And that needs to be remembered in every election cycle for the remainder of your life.
I hope to goodness media doesn't go into it's stupid mode and claim from here on that since Trump did "so or tht actions" it's a "new norm" to compare against. Instead puts Trump's norm violating into a separate category.
DeleteConstantly "Obama did xxx" so that's the new standard reach of executive action. Or such-and-such is what happened with the supreme court before, so anything done that way, is done within the norms and okay. The DOJ paper on indictment of a president was used that way too.
Media winds up deciding our process by their reporting style, instead us and our Congress deciding.
-----
Donald has multiple purposes now. One is straight vengeance. I'd guess another is paying back or paying in advance, international parties.
"Deadlocked board in key Michigan county fails to certify vote totals by deadline"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/michigan-vote-canvassing-board/2020/11/17/12141222-287c-11eb-8fa2-06e7cbb145c0_story.html
The Wayne County Board of Canvassers, which includes Detroit, deadlocked in a vote to certify the election results from that county.
At the urging of the state republican party, the two republican members, Monica Palmer and William Hartmann, refused to certify the Detroit results that were responsible for Biden winning the state. The 2 Democrats voted to certify. The republicans were willing to certify other precincts in Wayne County that did not have so many black voters.
In Nevada, Trump filed a lawsuit that in the republican stronghold of Carson City requesting that a state judge award the electoral votes to Trump or to annul the election results.
This is scary. It's not likely to reach a point of psuedo-legally overturning the election.
DeleteBut if it even overturns anything, it enables the Trumpite following.
Land: Anyone who has not drank Demagogue's Don's Kool-Aid, and who is concerned about the future of American democracy, needs to be profoundly scared.
DeleteWell at least they did reverse and certify. Wonder what the conversation was that changed their minds.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1328889760807591936?s=20
Land: The two republicans did change their votes after justifiable widespread condemnation. Their refusal to certify was clearly partisan and without any justifiable factual foundation. It was also a racist act that could have disenfranchised well over 100,000 blacks who voted in Detroit.
DeleteFrom the video I just watched (in that thread,) of a fellow councilmember or govt person, berating them, it would have gone to court and lost.
DeleteSo this cuts their time of being shamed down in size, over if they'd insisted on going all the way.
Their lecturer pointed out the numbers imbalance and racism. Doubt that matters to them one iota.
Unreal.
It's also surreal that you have a family member, same name, who'd had a head removed.... etc..
Land: Removing heads was commonplace during the reign of King Henry VIII.
Deletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_VIII
Criticizing the King could be viewed as treason, and Donald would agree with that approach. There is not an iota of doubt in my mind that Donald would imprison or execute his critics if he could get away with it.
According to my research, King Henry's daughter Queen Elizabeth I, was my 1st cousin 13 x removed since the sister of Elizabeth's mother, Ann Boleyn, whose head was detached, was Mary Boleyn, my 12th great grandmother.
Lol, cool history. Or in the modern vernacular, awesome. That's such an interesting place to wind up being connected to.
DeleteThat's incredible to find that many records.
There is one interesting limit on Trump over other dictators. All of them had personal histories of military violence. They'd been in the military of some kind (official or rebel) and in charge of an unnecessarily murderous event or many of them.
Trump has all the same tendencies, yet he has managed not to be physically a murderer in a very public way (until he entered office.)
Someone from Venezuela I'd met early on he his admin, pointed that out to me.
It's added a just a hair of assurance that he doesn't have as much guts as these other dictators.
I've seen parts of a few documentaries and programs on Ann Boleyn and the family dynamics.
A couple of my posts are now emailing again. Earlier today they weren't. Google's not consistent on this.
ReplyDeleteKingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd. ADR (KC)
ReplyDelete$33.31 -$4.00 -10.72%
Last Updated: Nov 18, 2020 at 10:21 a.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/kc
Just a wild guess, but it appears the Stock Jocks did not favor the earnings report released earlier today.
I own 6 shares as a Lottery Ticket and am still profitable at the deflated price shown above.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3637425-kingsoft-cloud-shares-dip-after-q3-revenue-miss-downside-forecast?mod=mw_quote_news
Another recently bought Lotto is doing better:
Ebix Inc.
$32.12 +$1.01 +3.26%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ebix
I view EBIX move up since my purchase as part of the everything is going to be fine trade, just wait and see. A major part of its business has been negatively impacted by the pandemic.
I discussed EBIX in Item # 1.N. above.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/11/buse-bxmx-duk-ebix-fcbc-fpf-opi-orcc.html
Ebix looks promising. It's gotten too run away to buy into here. Now at .92% div.
DeleteKC has sure picked a trading range.
Land: Both KC and EBIX are Lottos, designed to replace gambling at a casino which I will not visit for as long as the pandemic holds. Most Lottos are not discussed. I just bought and sold 1 this week.
DeleteI will discuss others in posts to come. A purchase of 5 BZH at $12.95 will be mentioned in my next blog.
Today I splurged with a one blackjack hand by buying 50 GASS which reports tomorrow. Maybe it will continue showing progress-maybe not. I may not discuss that one.
StealthGas Inc. (GASS)
$2.4500 -$0.0700 -2.78%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gass
Last Earnings Report:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/21/2081996/0/en/STEALTHGAS-INC-Reports-Second-Quarter-and-Six-Months-2020-Financial-and-Operating-Results.html
I will discuss the FIDUS trades in my next post. If I had not traded the stock, profitably selling higher cost lots at over $15 before March 2020, I would be a hole now. Now I was able to sell other higher cost lots profitably reducing my AC in one account to $8 (15% yield) and two other accounts that now have AC's of $10.41 (11.53%) and $10.96 (10.95%). The small ball strategy also required purchases in March that lowered my AC.
For BDCs, the goal is a total return in excess of dividend payments, which, for most of them requires a trading system where pops are sold.
++
Giuliani filed an amended complaint in a PA federal district court requesting that the Court toss the mail end ballots in Democrat counties or invalidate the election and allow the republican controlled legislature to appoint PA's electors. I suspect that the republican legislators would not pick electors who are Biden supporters.
A Trump legal strategist had tweeted that the ploy in Michigan was to prevent a timely certification thereby allowing the republican controlled legislature to appoint Michigan's electors.
It is important to quit humoring these people by calling them conservatives which is their desired label. Trump's party is fundamentally anti-Democracy and there is no accurate conservative label that fits that posture.
Today was a BDC pare day in the morning, where I lightened up on FDUS and SCM. The general idea with BDCs is to earn a total return in excess of the dividend payments. The likelihood of that eventually happening is increased by selling my highest cost lots profitably and buying dips and waiting for an opportunity to eliminate.
ReplyDeleteI sold 20 SCM shares at $11.08 (Fidelity account), which were my second and third highest cost lots using the specific ID cost method. That reduced my average cost from $8.62 to $8.15 in that account (86+ shares currently). I did not sell the highest cost lot bought first at $11.94. That lot will be dumped either when I sell all shares at a net profit or that lot at greater than $11.94. The lowest price lot was bought at $5.3 (3/23/20).
The last substantive buy discussion for SCM can be found here:
Item # 3.J. Added 10 SCM at $7.85; 5 at $7.65; 10 at $7.5:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/07/fhlc-fsphx-hta-idv-intf-irbo-min-sca.html
Stellus Capital Investment Corp. (SCM)
$11.04 +$0.42 +3.95%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/scm
I have now pared FDUS in 3 taxable accounts with the last one today being a 30 share lot sold at $12.99.
+++
The Stock Jocks were overwhelmed today by the current pandemic situation which is becoming worse in the U.S. without question.
It will require some fortitude for the Stock Jocks to look past what is likely to happen over the next six months before the vaccines can be widely distributed to those willing to take it.
+++
"PennantPark Floating Rate adjusted NAV per share rises 3.2% in fiscal Q4"
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3637689-pennantpark-floating-rate-adjusted-nav-per-share-rises-3_2-in-fiscal-q4
NII $.27
Net Asset value per share: $11.81
Press Release:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/18/2129620/0/en/PennantPark-Floating-Rate-Capital-Ltd-Announces-Financial-Results-for-the-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-Ended-September-30-2020.html
Closed today at $9.31, up 4 cents.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pflt
Dividends: Monthly at $.095 per share
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/03/2119598/0/en/PennantPark-Floating-Rate-Capital-Ltd-Announces-Monthly-Distribution-of-0-095-per-Share.html
"It will require some fortitude for the Stock Jocks to look past what is likely to happen over the next six months"
DeleteThis market has had an easy time looking past...
Yet I get a feeling here that a pullback is coming. Maybe it's wishful thinking. But there's a venting feeling in the air.
Trumpites aren't happy. Biden supporters aren't looking at a cooperative Senate. There won't be a great stimulus package and that bothers the market.
Vaccine reaching authorized and delivery beginning should be forward looking to a full recovery.
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I just spend a very frustrating several hours getting my email back to something like it was before. Thunderbird upgraded to a new release and it's a mess. Rolling back wasn't so easy.
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I came across a couple articles.
This one focuses on non-tech companies that it claims are acting like tech companies. He then describes F & CVS doing cross customer selling as "tech like." So he isn't accurate in my view.
However, his idea to look for companies in other industries that are using tech effectively - is a very good one.
It also may be worth my while to wait for the div to come back in F before selling at a loss. It should be less of a loss.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4389742-i-bought-ford-stock-even-though-doesnt-pay-dividend
I don't know if this is accurate to say Telsa being accepted into the indices is a sign of exuberance or oversell, and points to a pullback. Intriguing idea though.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-joins-p-500-know-100002286.html
"Trump's party is fundamentally anti-Democracy and there is no accurate conservative label that fits that posture.
Delete"
Absolutely
The anti-democracy is a constant bad taste and stress.
There's a worry that he'll figure out some quasi-legal way around democracy. More worry that he'll start a war or do some underhanded damage. Or that he has already with gutting everything, and we don't know what yet.
If you happen to look at those articles some day, I'd be curious what you think of the ideas.
My buy ideas from the last few months are up, whether I got into them or not. So I haven't seen anything interesting lately.
UNM is on my list.
I haven't been selling. I have plenty of cash, and so I'm not going to try to time with what's in now. If the banks pullback, I will pick them up.
I will avoid caterpillar. I'll add to LMT instead.
Land: Ford has been a value trap. Maybe the youngsters are on to something by buying Tesla and would not be caught dead owning F or GM.
DeleteCurrently I own a Ford Motor Credit bond that matures in 2022 and that is my only automotive exposure.
The annual average Ford total return (dividends reinvested) over the past 10 years is -2.19%; 10K turned into 8.012K:
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator/
I vaguely recall owning a few Ford common shares several years ago that I sold for a small loss after being spooked by something or another which I do not recall. I have not had an urge to return yet.
My participation in Tesla is through stock funds and one ETF which I am fuzzy on remembering now.
Ford sure has been a value trap. I didn't average down, so there's that.
DeleteThe article talks about companies that are not in tech but acting like tech companies. I think his analysis on Ford is way off. But the concept sounds good? The idea that a non-tech company that's implementing tech well to aid their business, is good to look for?
--
The other article is saying that when indices accept speculative stocks, they're showing an exuberance that's a "tell" for a market near a top.
Then the say entering Telsa is that type of move.
I'm not sure Tesla qualifies since it is making money. But on the other hand the valuations sure are speculative.
PennantPark Investment Corp (PNNT)
ReplyDelete$4.02 +$0.45 +12.61%
Last Updated: Nov 19, 2020 at 10:49 a.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pnnt
I discussed this deservedly hated BDC in Item # 1.K above.
The pop today is apparently due to Compass Point upgrading PPNT to buy from neutral with the PT raised from $3.5 to $4.75. I do not have access to that report.
I do know that PNNT and PFLT have many of the same loans. PFLT reported after the close yesterday, as I noted in a previous comment and is up over 7% so far today.
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. (PFLT)
10.01+0.70 (+7.52%)
As of 11:09AM EST.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PFLT/?p=PFLT
PNNT reports after the close today.
PNNT is a Lotto so I sold my highest cost lot at $4.05, reducing my AC to $2.99 per share.
+++
I mentioned GASS as a Lotto buy yesterday. Fidelity claims that the earnings release is today, but I checked and found no confirmation from the company.
I also restarted IMGN as a Lotto with just a 10 share buy.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/imgn
Last Discussed: Sold 50 at $9.48:
Item # 3 Profit Snapshot = +$383.48
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/02/observations-and-sample-of-recent_12.html
My take continues to be that the company has to many balls in the air. When it achieves some success, it licenses its discovery in return for royalty payments and then sells the rights to receive payments for current cash that it spends on developing other drugs. The cash balance is then fairly quickly drawn back down with no guarantee that the clinical stage drug will make it.
Another Lotto, PACB, has been doing well after Illumina dropped its acquisition due to government push back.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/illumina-pacific-biosciences-drop-12-billion-merger-agreement-2020-01-02?mod=mw_quote_news
The stock is now at $15.53:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/PACB?mod=MW_story_quote
The price was less than $5 when the merger feel through in January 2020.
The company recently raised capital by selling common stock:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1299130/000119312520291735/d801525d424b5.htm
Offering Price to Public: $14.25
Proceeds after underwriters: $13.395 which excludes PACB's internal expenses connected to the offering.
PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT)
DeleteAFTER HOURS $3.7900 -$0.42 -9.98%
Regular Hours: $4.21 +$0.64 +17.93%
I mentioned in a previous comment that I pared my Lottery Ticket position into that regular session pop, viewing it as suspect.
The decline in after hours trading was in response to the earnings report released after the close.
Press Release:
http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/19/2130524/0/en/PennantPark-Investment-Corporation-Announces-Financial-Results-for-the-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-Ended-September-30-2020.html
+++++
BRGPRA:
"Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Announces Partial Redemption of 8.250% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bluerock-residential-growth-reit-announces-partial-redemption-of-8-250-series-a-cumulative-redeemable-preferred-stock-301177636.html
This is the second partial redemption for this $25 par value equity preferred stock.
I own shares in 5 accounts.
Taxable Accounts: Down to 37 shares in my Schwab account at an AC of $22.05 and 29 in my Fidelity account at an AC of $17.79.
Smaller positions are in 2 Roth IRAs and another taxable account.
Today may be the long term bottom. Vaccine is coming. I haven't seen what turned the day around. Looked generic, just a mood change.
ReplyDeleteIt's possible. I didn't do any trades today. I did not put my money where that mouth is.
I'm seeing articles with that idea, that we're ready for a run. I haven't seen that type of article much before in many years. They sound like FG usually does.
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It appears the danger of Trump actually overturning the election has passed. Barely. What a manipulative [expletive]. This was way too close.
I liked this article a lot. I wish visual media would present details streamlined but -detailed- like this regularly.
https://www.axios.com/trump-election-challenges-loss-biden-fb42c9df-485d-4494-aeb2-6b2acadeb32a.html
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I downloaded Mary Trump's book today. I've seen her interviewed so many times. So not sure what I'll find out.
Land: Mary Trump says that her uncle is a dangerous sociopath which I knew before reading his book.
DeleteDonald is now trying to prevent timely certifications of election results and is using the power of the presidency and his hold on republican voters to achieve that result. The purpose is then to have the republican state legislatures in Michigan and Pennsylvania appoint Trump electors.
The Michigan vote has to be certified by a state Board of Canvassers, 2 republicans and 2 democrats. One of the republicans, a state senator, has said that he was leaning against certification. The two republican members of the Wayne County Board of Canvassers have tried to rescind their certifications of Detroit's vote after talking with Donald who has invited the republican leaders in the Michigan state House and Senate for an oval office visit tomorrow.
Showboat Rudy turned into a clown, holding a news conference where liquid black hair coloring dripped down both sides of his face, making fact free claims of a nationwide conspiracy orchestrated by Biden to commit voter fraud. He will prove soon that Donald won PA by 300,000 votes. And, Hugo Chavez who dies in 2013 as I recall was responsible for the software that deleted a million Demagogue Don votes and changed almost as many votes cast for Dangerous Don to Biden votes.
As to what turned the market around, the upturn coincided with Pelosi saying Mitch McConnell would restart negotiations on a stimulus package. Apparently the belief is that Donald and the republican senate will agree to something meaningful.
Is there any chance they will agree to something meaningful? I've been betting they will stay in character for this stimulus round. And the next 2-3.
DeleteJan 5th could make a difference.
Dec 15th to finalize the election is a long way away. Even if MI & PA were miraculously unsettled and overturned, GA, NV, and AZ were enough for Biden. (I'd have to go back & count again.)
Trump's pretty desperate to stay in office and avoid state prosecutions.
Black hair dripping? And Chavez rigged this election? Oh, fun. I just read that Tucker Carlson has called all this a bridge too far. When you've lost TC on conspiracy theories, that says something.
Land: If the republicans are successful in canceling the popular vote results in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the republican controlled legislatures in those states appoint Trump electors, Don the Authoritarian will be 2 votes short. So he still needs to reverse the popular vote in 1 other state.
DeleteThere are two deadline dates for the electoral college.
The 12/14/20 date is when the votes are cast.
All election disputes (recounts and court contests) must be resolved by 12/8.
https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/the-electoral-college.aspx
The republicans are trying to delay finalizations past 12/8/20.
While Donald is trying to burn the house down before leaving, as one would expect, it is arguable that Mnuchin is doing the same with his refusal to extend FED lending programs.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-next-for-markets-after-treasury-secretary-steven-mnuchin-pulls-the-455-billion-plug-11605872579?mod=home-page
Currently, my tally is that Donald come up 76,902 votes short of winning another 4 year term, but is behind 5,979,586 votes nationwide.
So 12/8 is the big date to fully exhale, knowing faithless electoral voters haven't been instated in enough places to overturn the vote.
DeleteI'd sum up that Mnuchin is trying to trigger crisis for Biden or at the least not aid the economy. The answer will be more QE. That will cause a market rally.
There's three companies with vaccines. But only 2 keep getting mentioned in TV media. I've lost track of which are which. PFE got the 90% and needs -100degree delivery.
"Pfizer PFE, +1.20% and partner BioNTech BNTX, +6.56%, as well as the one from biotech Moderna MRNA, +4.98%, "
LAND: The final result from the Pfizer/BioNTech trial was 95% effectiveness.
Deletehttps://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/health/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-safety/index.html
Mnuchin claims that he is not trying to sabotage the Biden administration.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mnuchin-says-decision-to-end-fed-emergency-programs-wasnt-aimed-at-hurting-biden-11605886515?mod=home-page
I would just note that it is arguable point. The FED believes that the programs need to extend beyond 12/31/20.
So the Pfizer is the same as the BioNTech and that's the info I've been missing.
DeleteThe Moderna is also very effective and doesn't need as much cold.
I have no heard media mention anything about what's happening with overseas vaccines. You'd think they would. It'd fill up airspace with readily available info, and be interesting to hear.
Mnuchin can say he's not. But when it looks like a duck, or a Don the Duck, it's turned out to be one...
"The Troubling Reason the Electoral College Exists"
ReplyDeletehttps://time.com/4558510/electoral-college-history-slavery/
The electoral college method for electing the President exists in the Constitution since the southern states wanted to prevent the more populous northern states from interfering with slavery.
Good article. I'd learned the farm vs city explanation in school. It'd seemed quite clever. Farms are spread out and shouldn't be penalized for lower population when it comes to policies.
DeleteBut it was about counting slaves & result was VA dominating the wins even to start off.
I've liked the idea of proportional representation but when digging in more hit a snag. How do you decide who to favor and by how much?
All a moot point. The amendment won't get overturned or adjusted until the population balance has shifted enough for it not to matter.
It wouldn't be as much of a problem if the GOP were a decent party. There's the usual political slime. But they're into demagoguery. And that contradicts with democracy!
Land: My solution is that around 10M people who are opposed to Trump and his cult move from places like N.Y., California, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Hawaii and Illinois to South Dakota, North Dakota, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Kansas. Then they would vote the Trumpsters out of Congress and the state houses. Their children will have to remain in those states to hold the fort so to speak.
DeleteWell, 10M people moving from reality to Trump world... that's going to be a tough sell. But maybe if we join N & S Dakota it will seem like a more cozy idea? Kansas is close to tipping. Iowa was talked about a lot. We need to write good songs about those states. That'll do it!
DeleteI have an idea. By GOP defining itself as the party of racism & farms & uber-fundamentalist religion, the DNC has accepted the label of party of diversity and extreme odd far left ideas.
If the DNC rebranded itself and it's policies, to be moderate, AND include outreach to the right in rural and white areas with policies to help them with their economy and education (vocational/tech, not with 'everyone must go to college') and the opioid problem... then the DNC would pick off enough people and broaden it's base enough to:
1) win
2) redefine the american divide and greatly reduce our problems with it
3) Still get to do climate change, gun management and mass shooting improvements, and other moderate ideas.
Countdown for DNC to figure this out about 5 years from now when it's reached a point of too late...
Land: I thought that volunteers could start the migration by moving from San Francisco to Bismarck, North Dakota. I have taken the liberty to find them some homes:
Deletehttps://www.zillow.com/bismarck-nd/
Donald won ND 232,595 to 114,902. So to be on the safe side we need just 150,000 voting age persons to leave SF for Bismarck. A similar number of Boston residents can move to SD. So we may not need 10M, and possibly there would be some volunteers from hopeless states like Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee willing to move to Wyoming. If a person is over 65, there is not need to volunteer because of an exemption.
That is the only way that a rebalance can occur in my lifetime.
73+M Americans voted to give Donald, a lying sociopathic demagogue who has spent 4 years trying to undermine American democracy in every way imaginable, another 4 years as President. Those qualities are obvious IMO. They are still here.
Lol
DeleteWell now you can be accused of trying to profit from your moving arrangements. You may be qualify as a politican or political consultant if you weren't trying to. You must agree to take you housing match up commission in confederate money, which will be worth a fortune as soon as the confederate will be restored. Even if you are actively working for the opposite goal.
As much as people voted for "this," people are fickle even to their ridiculousness. A meaningful portion of those same people voted for Obama because he was an "outsider." Some people shift even when it seems hopeless. It's still sad and frustrating. But it happens after many bad moments in history.
PS and I do not paint should people as trustworthy.
DeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/11/aod-axpra-bam-bzh-csco-cxp-fdus-fmagx.html