ASB, CATY, EVRG, FFIC, FITB, GSG, IDA, IGR, INCY, MIN, RHHBY, SPLK, TPVG, VXUS, XMLV,

Economy: 

March 2021 jobs report blows past expectations (+916K in March vs. consensus at 675K) The prior two months were also revised higher by a total of 156K. 

Consumers spent $900 billion more online in 2020, Mastercard report says

U.S. trade deficit jumps 4.8% in February to record $71.1 billion as Americans snap up imports - MarketWatch

Federal Reserve minutes from March meeting No end in sight to easy money policy. 

The FED currently owns over $7 trillion in treasuries and mortgage backed securities. System Open Market Account Holdings of Domestic Securities - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

After Pandemic, Shrinking Need for Office Space Could Crush Landlords - The New York Times

Top Earners, Businesses Likely to See Tax Increases | Morningstar

++++

Markets and Market Commentary: 

S & P P/E Ratios as of 4/9/2021: 

TTM GAAP P/E: 46.92

Estimated non-GAAP Next 12 months: 23.49 

Dividend Yield: 1.42%

Sourced: P/E & Yields

Is the Stock Market Cheap? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives (4/6/21) 

Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance - dshort - Advisor Perspectives ( inflation adjusted S & P 500 index is 158% above long term trend)

Shiller PE Ratio = 37.09

Shiller PE Ratio - 150 Year Chart | Longtermtrends

Market Cap to GDP-The Buffett Indicator-Updated Historical Chart | Longtermtrends and Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator - dshort - Advisor Perspectives  (193.3% vs. the 2000 high of 159.2%) 

The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: March Update - dshort - Advisor Perspectives (3.11 vs. 1999-2000 high of 2.15)  

Investors have put more money into stocks in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined

‘We’re seeing widespread frothiness, bubbles, risk-taking and leverage,’ warns ‘Dr. Doom’ on state of stock-market - MarketWatch

Jamie Dimon: Boom fueled by Covid spending could ‘easily run into 2023’

The Masters of Disaster at Credit Suisse caused a $4.7B hit from lending to the Masters of Disaster at Archegos Capital Management. Credit Suisse takes $4.7 billion hit from Archegos hedge fund scandal The Masters of Disaster at Morgan Stanley were more quick to the draw. Morgan Stanley dumped $5 billion in Archegos' stocks before fire sale  

AstraZeneca Covid vaccine: European Medicines Agency finds possible link to rare blood clotting problem

Columbia Property Trust (CXP) Provides Update on Strategic Business Review Process 

++++

Don the Authoritarian has called upon the True Believers to boycott companies who favor voting rights. Trump calls for Republicans to boycott companies amid voting law controversy | TheHill

How Trump Steered Supporters Into Unwitting Donations - The New York Times

The question about Georgia’s election-law changes that has only one answer: Why?; republished by MSN from The question about Georgia’s election-law changes that has only one answer: Why? - The Washington Post

Denver Riggleman, one of the few republican politicians to denounce QAnon, was defeated in the 2020 republican primary by the 100% pure Trumpster Bob Good. Since losing that election, Riggleman has begun a futile and lonely struggle to convince fellow republicans to accept facts rather than bizarre fact free conspiracy theories. One Republican’s Lonely Fight Against a Flood of Disinformation - The New York Times; Denver Riggleman Has Seen the Republican Party's Future - The Atlantic

58% of Trump voters believe that the U.S. Capitol assault was carried out by Antifa followers. Suffolk Poll Shows Trump Voters Would Favor New Trump Party More Than GOP 

In an exhaustive analysis of Georgia's new anti-voting law, the NYT found 16  key provisions that will "limit ballot access, potentially confuse voters and give more power to Republican lawmakers." What Georgia’s Voting Law Really Does-The New York Times It is not a coincidence that the anti-democracy party passed this law shortly after losing 2 senate seats.  

Top republicans are threatening major American corporations for daring to criticize their anti-democracy push. Republicans ramp up attacks on corporations over Georgia voting law, threaten ‘consequences’, republished my MSN.com from Republicans ramp up attacks on corporations like Coca-Cola, Delta and MLB over Georgia voting law - The Washington Post Mitch McConnell is in favor of corporate free speech only when the speech involves donating billions to GOP politicians or when corporations repeat Mitch's talking points.

Geoff Duncan, Georgia's GOP lieutenant governor, says Giuliani's false fraud claims helped lead to restrictive voting law 

HBO documentary on QAnon suggests Ron Watkins is QAnon prophet - The Washington Post If Ron Watkins acknowledged that he was Mr. Q, that would undermine his influence and that of his father Jim Watkins, who owns the 8chan website, and just another nobody like his son. 8chan owner Jim Watkins: From helicopter repairman to leader of the Internet's 'darkest reaches' - The Washington Post

White Evangelical Resistance Is Obstacle in Vaccination Effort - The New York Times One Trumpster refused to be vaccinated based on her belief that it contained "aborted cell tissue". Another received a message from God recommending against the vaccination. Others simply believe that it is God's will whether they survive or not, a belief that is analogous IMO to those who passed around a venomous snake during a church service and, if someone died from a snake bite, then that was God's way of dispatching them to the hereafter. Snake handling in religion - Wikipedia Handling a venomous snake has nothing to do with being bitten by the snake.  

Matt Gaetz (R-FL) Paid Accused Sex Trafficker Joel Greenberg, Who Then Venmo’d Teen; Matt Gaetz investigation: Joel Greenberg, the congressman's associate, likely to reach plea deal in sex-trafficking case - The Washington Post  Gaetz, a 100% pure Trumpster, denies everything. 

+++

1. Small Ball:

Baseball analogy-Small ball (baseball)-Wikipedia (bunt, walk, hit by pitch, singles, stealing bases, etc., not swinging for the fences) 

Small Ball Rules:

(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain; or has to lower my average cost per share; 

(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission-free trades;

(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;

(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved; 

(5) Shares purchased with dividends may be sold when it is profitable to do so and the share price is outside my consider to buy range. Several examples are provided in this post.

The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled and disciplined trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield.  

I do not need to take any risks and view equity risks as elevated at current market levels. I am receiving, as is, enough upside action with my limited stock exposure.   

I have decided to continue with a small stock allocation since there are no decent alternatives given the abnormally low interest rates.    

The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure.

When successfully implemented, this trading system will leave me (1) with the largest gain to be realized, if at all, as the last trade and (2) the highest dividend yield since the onset of the relevant stock's "buy program".

A. Pared IGR-Sold 100 at $7.64: 

Quote: CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund Overview- A Leveraged CEF

IGR SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report (cost $1.116+B; value as of 12/31/20 at $1.234B)

Borrowings: The average interest rate for 2020 was at 1.12%.

Sponsor's website: Global RE Income Fund - CBRE Clarion

Profit Snapshot: +$63.6

The shares were originally bought at $7.58:

Most of the profit was due to ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis. 

Average Cost After Pare: $5.46

Snapshot Intraday on 3/16/21 after pare

Dividend:  Monthly at $.05 per share, supported by ROC. 

Yield at New Average Cost: 10.99%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/18/20

I have now turned off dividend reinvestment.

Data Date of 3/16/21 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $8.53

Closing Market Price: $7.66

Discount: -10.2%

Sourced: IGR - CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab) 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.D. Added to IGR-Bought 10 at $5.79; 5 at $5.59  (11/21/20 Post); Item # 1.E. Added 5 IGR at $3.75; 50 at at $5.69; and 10 at $5.1 (5/16/20 Post) 

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1. I. Eliminated IGR Vanguard Account-Sold 100 at $5.95 and Eliminated IGR in Schwab Account-Sold 100 at $5.96 (6/13/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Sold 9 IGR at $8.33 (2/19/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Sold 100 IGR at $8.01 (12/28/19 Post)

Goal: Any profit on the shares before the ROC adjustment to the cost basis + the dividend payments. I did not accomplish that goal with this 100 share lot which was sold at breakeven before the ROC adjustments. 

B. Added to MIN-Bought 25 at $3.62: 

Quote: MFS Intermediate Income Trust Overview- Currently unleveraged

SEC Filings

Investments as of 1/31/21-SEC Filing 

Effective Duration as of 2/28/21: 3.92 Years

Credit Quality and Portfolio Structure as of 2/28/21:

MFS INTERMEDIATE INCOME TRUST N-CSR-Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report for the period ending 10/31/20. (cost at $423.599+M with value at $448.039+M)

Current Position this account: 403+ shares

Average Cost per share this account: $3.71

Dividend: Monthly, last at $.0276 per share ($.3312 annually), down from $.0278 paid in the prior month. 

Yield at AC =  8.93%  (assumes continuation of current rate)

Last Ex Dividend: 3/16/21

Data Date of 3/23/21 Trade: 

Closing Market Price: $3.64

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $3.81

Discount: -4.46%

Source: MIN- CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab) 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.B. Added to MIN-Bought 15 at $3.77 (2/13/21 Post); Item  #1.B. (11/7/2020 Post)

Goal: Total return in excess of the dividend payments prior to ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis. The first 100 lot that will be sold was bought at $3.85 (6/11/20). Another option would be to sell first a 100 share lot bought at $3.73 on 6/26/20. 

C. Restarted RHHBY-Bought 5 at $41.60 and 5 at $40.68:

Quotes: 

USD Priced ADR:  Roche Holding AG ADR (RHHBY)

Swiss Franc Ordinary Share: Roche Holding AG (Switzerland: SWX Europe)

1 ADR = .125 Ordinary 

CHF/USD | Swiss Franc-MarketWatch

Roche website

Roche - Pipeline

Closing Price 4/9/21: RHHBY $41.93 +$0.53 +1.28% 

The Swiss central bank launched a Jihad against the Swiss Franc (CHF) in 2011 which continues to the present. The primary reason was the appreciation in the CHF vs. the Euro and USD that was negatively impacting exports from Swiss companies. Starting in 2011, the Swiss central bank has maintained a negative benchmark interest rate, currently at -.75%. Swiss National Bank (SNB)-Current interest rates and exchange rates The Swiss 10 year government bond also has a negative yield. 10-year:  for Switzerland 

5 RHHBY shares were bought before the annual ex dividend date and 5 shares thereafter. 

Note that Switzerland withheld a 35% tax on the dividend  which is the rate applicable when there is no treaty or the benefits of a tax treaty are not claimed at the source. 

Under Article 10 of the U.S.-Switzerland tax treaty, the maximum tax rate for a U.S. citizen is 15% but someone has to claim that tax favored treaty rate at the source, and Schwab did not bother. 

I am generally able to recover all, or almost all foreign dividend taxes as tax credits. My recovery last year-through a tax credit-was over $400, mostly from Canada's 15% withholding tax applied to dividends paid by Canadian reset equity preferred stocks.   

Dividend: Annual, last at US$1.2782 per share

Ex Dividend: 3/18/21 (after 5 share purchase on 3/16)

5 Year Chart as of 3/16/21 (date of first purchase): 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.A. Added 5 RHHBY at $28.74 (4/2/19 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 5 RHHBY at $26.3-Used Commission Free Trade (6/28/18 Post); Item #3.A. Bought 10 RHHBY at $28.85  (11/13/17 Post)

Analyst Reports: 

Morningstar (1/6/21): 5 stars with a FV of $60. 

Argus (2/23/21): Buy with a $50 PT (forecasts 2021 E.P.S. up about 6% to $2.85 and $3.15 for 2022)

Last Earnings Report (Annual): 

2020 vs. 2019

Revenues in the molecular diagnostics business benefited from Covid-19 tests and increased 90%.  Overall the diagnostic segment, accounting for about 24% of revenues, reported a 14% increase in sales. 

Drugs launched since 2012 grew revenues by 32% last year. Those drugs include Tecentriq (cancer); Hemlibra (hemophilia); Ocrevus (multiple sclerosis); Perjeta and Kadclya (breast cancer):

The older biosimilars were acquired by Roche through its Genentech acquisition are facing generic competition (Avastin, Rituxan, and Herceptin). That was one of the few mega deals that worked out for the acquirer. Genentech is still the primary generator of Roche's new drug products. Genentech; Genentech: Our Pipeline; Genentech: Our Medicines & Products Roche bought a 60% stake in Genentech for $2.1B  in 1990 and then had to pay $47B to acquire the remaining 40% in 2008. 

 

Sourced: Investor Update FY2020.pdf

Other Recent News: 

Roche commences tender offer for all shares of GenMark Diagnostics, Inc. for $24.05 per share in cash 

New phase III data shows investigational antibody cocktail casirivimab and imdevimab reduced hospitalisation or death by 70% in non-hospitalised patients with COVID-19 

Pivotal Phase III study shows Roche’s Tecentriq helped people with early lung cancer live longer without their disease returning 

How a Simple Blood Test Could Reduce Cancer Deaths. What Investors Should Know. | Barron's Roche is one of the companies mentioned that are developing liquid biopsy tests. This part of Roche's business was acquired through its acquisition of Foundation Medicine in 2018. Roche pays $2.4 billion for rest of cancer expert Foundation Medicine | Reuters 

Prior sell discussions: Item # 4.A. Sold 75 RHHBY at $31.91(12/16/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $118.93); Item # 3.B. Sold 30 RHHBY  at $33.25 (6/7/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $178.87); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 RHHBY at $31.61 (4/8/17 Post)

RHHBY Realized Gains to Date: $502.54 

D. Started RHHBY in Fidelity Account-Bought 3 at $41.69; 2 at $41.67; 5 at $40.89; 5 at $40: 

Snapshot as of 4/2/21

See Item # 1.B. above. 

5 shares were bought the day prior to the annual ex dividend date (3/18) and 5 shares were purchased on the ex dividend date. 

I have already profitably sold 5 shares in this account that had been bought at $42.12, keeping the lower cost shares.    

Current Position this Account: 15 shares at a $40.86 average cost per share.

E. Pared FFIC in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $24.32: 

FFIC History This Account 

Quote: Flushing Financial Corp. (FFIC)

FFIC SEC Filings

FFIC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

2020 Annual Report 

Investment category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshot : +$63.93

New Average Cost Per Share this account =  $10.99 (10 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share 

Flushing Financial Corporation Declares Its Quarterly Dividend of $0.21 Per Share 

Yield at AC = 7.64%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/11/21 (owned as of)

5 Year Financial History: 

Dividend History: 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.F. Restarted FFIC-Bought 10 at $12.25; 2 at $10.7; 5 at $10.6; 3 at $10.3; 10 at $10.2 (10/3/2020)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP Net Income Per Share to Core Income: 

The merger expenses add back were incurred in connection with FFIC's acquisition of Empire Bancorp. Flushing Financial Corporation Closes Acquisition of Empire Bancorp, Inc. 

Tangible Book Value per share as of 12/31/20: $19.45

Discount to Tangible Book at $10.99 AC = -43.5%

For the Q/E 12/30/20: 

NPL Ratio: .31%

NPA Ratio: .26%

Coverage Ratio: 214.27%

Efficiency Ratio: 57.56%

Tangible Equity to Tangible Assets: 7.52%

Total Risk Based Capital Ratio (holding co.) = 12.62%

Sell Discussions: Item # 1.H. Eliminated FFIC in Vanguard Taxable Account -Sold 10 at $18.85 (2/6/21 Post); Item # 3.H. Pared FFIC in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $14.05; 5 at $16-highest cost lots (12/19/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $39.96); Item # 4 Sold 50 FFIC at $13.53 (10/31/11 Post); Item # 2 Sold 50 FFIC @ $14.51 (5/2/11 Post)

FFIC Realized Gains to Date: $483.99

F. Eliminated IDA in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 3+ at $101.18; 2 at $93.5; 1 at 92.87: 

Quote: IDACORP Inc.

Closing Price 4/9/21: IDA $99.43 -$0.20 -0.20% 

IDA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

IDA SEC Filings

IDA 2020 Annual Report 

3 Year Financial Data: 

Page 80, 2020 Annual Report 

Investment Category: Bond Substitute

Profit Snapshot + 61.22

Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Started  IDA as a Placeholder in my Vanguard Taxable Account- Bought 1 at $89.7; 1 at $87.5; 1 at $86.5 (2/13/21 Post) If and when the price falls to $85.5, I will buy 2 more shares. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.71 per share ($2.84). Good dividend growth for a utility. 

Last Ex Dividend: 2/4/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release

"fourth quarter 2020 net income attributable to IDACORP of $37.5 million, or $0.74 per diluted share, compared with $47.1 million, or $0.93 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2019. IDACORP reported 2020 net income attributable to IDACORP of $237.4 million, or $4.69 per diluted share, compared with $232.9 million, or $4.61 per diluted share, in 2019."

"Other O&M expenses were $3.6 million higher in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, partially due to the effects of the COVID-19 public health crisis, which includes higher bad debt costs."

2021 Guidance: 

G. Started XMLV-Bought 2 at $52.4; 1 at $51.69: 

Quote: Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF Overview 

Sponsor's Website Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF

Expense Ratio: .25%.

Invesco | Holdings | Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF

Number of Holdings: 82 stocks

H. Started INCY as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $80.21, 1 at $79: 

Quote: Incyte Corp. 

INCY Analyst Estimates (as of 4/3/21, consensus E.P.S. at $2.42 for 2021; $3.85 in 2022; $4.96 in 2023)

INCY SEC Filings 

2020 Annual Report 

Pharmaceutical Portfolio Transforming the Treatment of Cancer & Immune-Mediated Conditions

5 Year Chart: In the context of a bull market in major stock indexes, I would label this a bear market chart pattern but not a bad one. 

3 Year Historical: 

Product Revenues: 

Milestone and royalty payments are received from other drug companies in exchange for marketing rights. 

The most important drug is Jakafi that has been approved for multiple indications. Polycythemia Vera (PV), Myelofibrosis (MF) & Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease (aGVHD); Jakafi (ruxolitinib) FDA Approval History - Drugs.com Of the $2.666+B in 2020 revenues, Jakafi accounted for $2.215+B. This drug is marketed by Incyte in the U.S. while Incyte granted Novartis (NVS) exclusive marketing rights "for all hematologic and oncologic indications"  outside of the U.S. and pays Incyte royalties for its sales. 

Incyte also has a royalty and milestone payment arrangement with NVS for Tabrecta ("capmatinib").

Incyte has a royalty and milestone arrangement Eli Lilly for Olumiant ("baricitinib"). Lilly has worldwide marketing rights for that drug. Last week, the FDA delayed its decision to expand the label for Olumiant to include atopic dermatitis. Lilly and Incyte communicate review extension of supplemental New Drug Application for baricitinib for the treatment of moderate to severe atopic dermatitis The drug also failed to meet its primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial for hospitalized Covid patients. Lilly and Incyte announce results from the Phase 3 COV-BARRIER study of baricitinib in hospitalized COVID-19 patients Both of those announcements last week pressured the stock some. I would note that the drug, while failing to meet its primary endpoint of preventing mechanical ventilation (reducing odds by only a statistically insignificant 2.7%), did show a 38% reduction in mortality by day 28 when baricitinib was added to the standard of care.  

At some point, Incyte will need to transition to marketing all of its newly discovered and approved compounds in North America, Europe and Japan. For now, the better option IMO is to license its less important drugs in exchange for milestone and royalty payments. 

2020 milestone payments are described at pp. 65-66 of the 2020 Annual Report. In addition to payments made to Incyte, that discussion includes payments that Incyte made to MorphoSys AG (MOR) for Monjuvi ("tafasitamab"), a drug used in combination with lenalidomide to treat relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.  

Monjuvi is the only FDA approved treatment for patients who have received at least 1 prior therapy. FDA Approves Monjuvi(R) (tafasitamab-cxix) in Combination with Lenalidomide for the Treatment of Adult Patients with Relapsed or Refractory Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL) | MorphoSys AG (8/1/20 Press Release) MOR is based in Hamburg, Germany. MOR SEC Filed 2020 Annual Report 

2020 Regulatory Achievements:

Dividend: None, and none likely 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

2021 Guidance: 

GAAP to Non-GAAP reconciliation is provided in the press release.  

Cash as of 12/31/20 = $1.801+B

Revenues were hurt in 2020 due to the pandemic which resulted in far fewer patient visits to their physicians. 

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Argus (3/24/21): Buy with a $100 PT, reduced from $105 in previous report. Analyst notes continued pipeline progress.  

Morningstar (2/9/21): 4 stars with a $120 FV  

Credit Suisse (2/9/21): Neutral with a $97 PT. Notes that 7 approvals are expected in 2021 with 4 in the U.S. The analyst believes that the approval of Incyte's ruxolitinib (RUX) cream for atopic dermatitis is key, since it is the linchpin in the move to develop a dermatology franchise.  

S & P (3/31/21): 3 stars with a $95 PT. The analyst views FDA approval of RUX cream to be likely by mid-2021. Other important future developments would include a successful commercialization of recently approved drugs, particularly Monjuvi for treating "certain types of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) that has come back (relapsed) or that did not respond to previous treatment (refractory) and who cannot receive a stem cell transplant. "  MONJUVI® (tafasitamab-cxix) 200mg 

Other Recent News: 

Incyte Announces the European Commission Approval of Pemazyre® (pemigatinib) as a Treatment for Adults with Locally Advanced or Metastatic Cholangiocarcinoma with a Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor 2 (FGFR2) Fusion or Rearrangement (3/29/21)

Baricitinib is First JAK-Inhibitor to Demonstrate Hair Regrowth in Phase 3 Alopecia Areata (AA) Trial (3/3/21); 

Incyte Announces Acceptance and Priority Review of BLA for Retifanlimab as a Potential Treatment for Patients with Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Anal Canal (SCAC) (1/21/21)

Buying Restriction: Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain. 

Maximum Position: 50 shares all accounts. I currently own 2 in my Fidelity taxable account; 1 share in two other taxable accounts; and 1 share in a Roth IRA. 

I. Sold 1.237 ASB: 

Bought with 2 dividend payments

Quote: Associated Banc-Corp.

SEC Filings

ASB Analyst Estimates 

2020 Annual Report 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.A. Started ASB-Bought 10 at $12.35; 5 at $11.9 (8/8/20 Post) 

I have turned off dividend reinvestment due to price/valuation. 

Profitably selling shares bought with dividend payments is part of my risk mitigation strategy. The elimination or reduction of those shares will generally occur when I am no longer willing to buy at the current price. 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshot: +$12.69

New Average Cost per share this Account: $12.19 (14 shares)

Snapshot Intraday 3/18/21 after pares 

The AC was reduced slightly from $12.32 per share.

Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share ($.72 annually), last raised from $.17 effective for the 2019 4th quarter. 

Associated Banc-Corp Announces Dividends

Yield at New AC = 5.91%

Last Ex Dividend: 2/26/21

5 year financials: 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release

E.P.S. $.40, down 3 cents from 2019 4th Q 

NPL Ratio: .86%, up from .52% in the 2019 4th Q 

NPA Ratio: .67%, up from .45%

Coverage Ratio: 204.63%

Adjusted Efficiency Ratio = 62.76% (too high IMO)

ROE = 7.78% (below average)

Tangible Book Value Per Share = $16.67

Discount to Tangible Book at $12.19 AC = -26.87%

Total Capital Ratio: 14.02%

I would describe this report as unsatisfactory compared to my other regional bank holdings. NPL and NPA ratios are going in the wrong direction but are not yet problematic. ROE is too low and the efficiency ratio too high IMO. Capital ratios are okay.  

While ASB reported a 2020 GAAP E.P.S. of $1.86 per share, down slightly from the $1.91 in 2019, the actual operating E.P.S. last year was just $1.19 excluding the large gain from selling Associated Benefits and Risk Consulting. Associated Banc-Corp Completes Sale of Associated Benefits & Risk Consulting to USI Insurance Services (6/30/20)("Associated expects to record a second quarter 2020 pre-tax book gain of approximately $165 million in conjunction with the sale.") 

The only reason for owning a few shares now is the yield and discount to tangible book value per share based on my $12.19 AC. 

J. Sold 1.977 FITB at $39.13: 

Quote: Fifth Third Bancorp   (FITB)

Closing Price 4/9/21: FITB $38.44 +$0.30 + 0.79% 

Fifth Third is "a diversified financial services company headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio and is the indirect holding company of Fifth Third Bank, National Association (the “Bank”). As of December 31, 2020, Fifth Third had $205 billion in assets and operates 1,134 full-service Banking Centers and 2,397 Fifth Third branded ATMs in Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Florida, Tennessee, West Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina. The Bancorp operates four main businesses: Commercial Banking, Branch Banking, Consumer Lending and Wealth & Asset Management. Fifth Third is among the largest money managers in the Midwest and, as of December 31, 2020, had $434 billion in assets under care, of which it managed $54 billion for individuals, corporations and not-for-profit organizations."

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

FITB SEC Filings

FITB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 4/3/21; average E.P.S. estimate for 2021 was $3.01; $3.13 for 2022; and $3.5 for 2023) 

2020 Annual Report 

Profit Snapshot: +$37.4 (3/18/21 sell only)

New Average Cost per share = $16.89 (14 shares)

Snapshot 3/18/21 Intraday after pare 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually); last raised from $.24 effective for the 2020 first quarter. Most banks that I follow did not raise their penny rates over the past year due to the pandemic induced recession. 

Yield at New AC  this account = 6.39%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/30/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

Note the Y-O-Y declines in E.P.S. and NIM:

4th quarter earnings were negatively impacted by $.10 per share in special items: 

Adjusted E.P.S. was $.88 per share. 

Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Sold 50 FITB at $24.57 (7/3/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $443.21); Item # 2.C. Sold 50+ FITB at $27.53 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot =$481.05); Item # 1.F. Pared FITB in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 16 at $30.14; 4 at $32.21-highest cost lots (1/30/21 Post); Item # 1.I. Pared FITB-Sold 5 at $33.48 (3/6/21 Post)

FITB Realized Gains to Date: $1,090.28

I started to track regional bank stock profits in 2009.  

K. Sold 1.163 CATY at $44.01: 

Quote:  Cathay General Bancorp (CATY)

CATY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

CATY SEC Filings

Cathay General Bancorp Key Metrics | Reuters

Closing Price 4/9/21: CATY $41.39  +$0.52 +1.27% 

Investment category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshot: +$22.4  (3/18/21 sell only)

New AC per share this account: $22.75 (13 shares)

Snapshot Intraday 3/18/21 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share ($1.24 annually)

After selling shares bought with dividends, I have turned off dividend reinvestment based on valuation. 

Yield at New AC = 5.45%

Last Ex Dividend: 2/26/21

I discussed the last earnings report in this report and have nothing further to add:  Item # 1.G. Pared CATY-Sold 2 at $35.14  (1/30/21 Post) 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.M. Added to CATY- Bought 1 at $23.75; 1 at $21.38; 1 at $21.13(10/3/2020 Post)

News Since Last Discussion: Cathay General Bancorp Adopts New Share Repurchase Program (4/1/21)

L. Pared VLY in Schwab Taxable-Sold 5 at $14.44: 

Quote: Valley National Bancorp  (VLY)

VLY | Valley National Bancorp Analyst Estimates

VLY SEC Filings

VLY 2020 Annual Report 

Closing Price 4/9/21: VLY $13.80 +$0.09  +0.66% 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.K. Added 5 VLY at  $6.79 in Fidelity Taxable Account  (7/25/20 Post);  Item # 1.I. Restarted VLY-Bought 10 at $7.66 (6/6/20 Post)

Profit Snapshot: +$35.54

Average Cost after Pare this account = $7.36 (25+ shares)

Remaining Lot Details Schwab Account

Dividend: Quarterly at $.11 per share

Yield at New AC this account = 5.98%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/12/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release; SEC Filed Earnings Presentation 

GAAP E.P.S. at $.25

Adjusted E.P.S. at $.27, up from $.24 in 2019 4th Q

Adjusted Net Income: $113.4M

NIM: 3.06%, up 5 basis points from 2020 3rd Q 

Efficiency Ratio: 51.61%

Charge-Off Ratio: .04%

NPL Ratio: .58%

Coverage Ratio: 183.64%

Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.A. Eliminated VLY-Sold 102+ at $10.51 (9/11/2019 Post); Item # 2.A. Eliminated VLY Sold 51+ VLY at $12.76 (7/25/18 Post); Item # 2.B. Sold 60 VLY at $12.52 (1/28/18 Post)

M. Sold .427 NTB at $40.88:

Quote: Bank of Butterfield Ltd.

NTB | Bank of Butterfield Ltd. Analyst Estimates

Website: Butterfield Group

Closing Price 4/9/21: NTB $37.44 +$0.15  +0.40% 

Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.F. Started NTB-Bought 1 at $27.23; 9 at $26.9; 2 at $26.38; 1 at $25.79; 2 at $25.54; 5 at $25.2; 2 at $24.9; 2 at $24.7 (9/12/2020 Post)

Other Buy Discussion: Item # 1.F. Added to NTB-Bought 2 at $23.15; 1 at $22; 1 at $21.9; 1 at $21.6 (10/10/20 Post)

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshot = $3.81 (3/18/21 sell only)

New Average Cost per share this account = $24.19 (18 shares)

 

Snapshot Intraday 3/18/21 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.44 per share ($1.76 annually)

Yield at New AC =  7.28%

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): Bank of Butterfield (NTB) Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results 

E.P.S. of $.84 with core E.P.S. at $.86; 

Consensus at $.73 according to Fidelity; 

Declares regular quarterly dividend of $.44; 

Board approves stock buyback of up to 2 million shares; 

2020 core E.P.S. at $3.04; 

4th quarter: ROE at 16.9%, 

ROTE = 19%; 

Core efficiency = 65.6%; 

NIM = 2.25%; 

NPA Ratio = .6%; 

Coverage Ratio = 47%; 

Total capital ratio = 19.8%; 

Tangible book value per share = $19.88

N. Pared EVRG-Sold 3 at $59.37: 

Quote: Evergy Inc.  (EVRG)-Utility Holding Company

Investment Classification: Bond Substitute

Investor Overview | Evergy, Inc.

EVRG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

EVRG SEC Filings

Investor Overview | Evergy, Inc.

Evergy Inc Profile | Reuters

EVRG 2020 SEC Filed Annual Report 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1. F. Added to EVRG-Bought 1 at $49.9; 1 at $49.7; 1 at $49.16; 1 at $48.9 (10/17/20 Post); Item # 1.C. (9/19/20 Post) 

Profit Snapshot: +$20.47 

New Average Cost per share: $50.24 (10 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 3/19/21 after pare 

The AC was reduced from $50.77. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.535 per share ($2.14 annually), last raised from $.505 effective for the 2020 4th quarter payment. 

Yield at New AC = 4.26%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/5/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): Evergy (EVRG) Announces 2020 Results at Top End of Guidance Range, Declares Quarterly Dividend, and Issues 2021 Outlook 

Adjusted 2020 non-GAAP E.P.S. at $3.1, up 7% compared to 2019; 

2021 non-GAAP E.P.S. guidance at $3.2 to $3.4; 

4th quarter 2020 non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.28 with consensus at $.22 according to Fidelity; 

Declares quarterly dividend of $.535 per share

O. Eliminated GSG-Sold 10 at $14.51: 

Quote: iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust Overview

Sponsor's Website: iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust | GSG

Profit Snapshot: +$19.85

Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. (1/23/21 Post) 

P. Bought 1 SPLK at $132.95: 

Quote: Splunk Inc. 

SPLK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Closing Price 4/9/21: SPLK $142.27  +$2.29 +1.64%  

The company "turns data into doing with the Data-to-Everything Platform. Splunk technology is designed to investigate, monitor, analyze and act on data at any scale."

SPLK SEC Filings

Annual Report F/Y ending 1/31/21 A more detailed description of SPLK's businesses and product offerings can be found at pp. 4-8. There is certainly nothing that I could add to that discussion. 

52 Week Return =  +11.94% through Friday's close at $142.27.  

5 Year Chart: 

The stock came to my attention through this Barron's article. Splunk Stock Is a Buy: After Falling Behind, It’s Catching Up. | Barron's Basically, the argument is that revenues and non-GAAP earnings fell when SPLK moved from a perpetual or term licenses, where revenues are recognized upfront, to a subscription model where revenues are spread over the life of the contract. That transition causes short term distortions in the accounting recognition of revenues.    

3 Year Financial Summary: 

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket 

While revenues are accelerating, the company is not generating GAAP profits (see snapshots above and below).

As of 4/3/21, the average PT among 36 analysts was $194.24. 

Last Earnings Report (Fiscal Quarter ending 1/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

Q. Started VXUS as a Placeholder in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 1 at $62.83: 

Quote: Vanguard Total International Stock ETF Overview 

Closing Price 4/9/21: VXUS $64.12 -$0.01 -0.02% 

Sponsor's website: Vanguard Total International Stock ETF 

Expense Ratio: .08%

Holdings: 7,420 stocks as of 2/28/21

VXUS owns about 4,000 more international stocks than VEU which I also own. VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF 

Some Top VXUS Holdings as of 2/28/21: 

By owning more stocks than VEU, this ETF has more of a small cap focus.  

I last discussed a purchase of VEU here: Item # 1.K. Bought 5 VEU at $49.41 (8/1/2020 Post); Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF Overview.

R. Continued to Pare TPVG in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5 at $15.35: 

Quote: TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC

TPVG SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: +$20.74 (4/8/21 sell only)

New AC per share this account = $7.31 (50+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 4/8/21 after pare 

The AC was reduced from $7.66 as a result of this 5 share pare. 

Dividend: Quarterly  at $.36 per share, regular dividend only ($1.44 annually)

TPVG  Dividend History

Dividend reinvestment has been turned off given the current premium price to net asset value per share. 

Yield at New AC =  19.7% (regular dividend only)

I have mentioned this pare out of time order since I discussed this BDC in my last post, which includes a discussion of the last earnings report, and have nothing further to add. Item # 1.C. Pared TPVG-Sold 4 at $14.85 (4/1/21 Post) 

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments. 

TPVG Realized Gains to Date = $885.59

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.