Saturday, May 8, 2021

BHB, CDUAF, CU:CA, EXC, GRX, IBB, IBM, LGI, MAXN, RIGL, SU

Economy

Jobs report April 2021: Hiring boom goes bust +266K with the consensus estimate at 1M. Employment Situation Summary The average workweek increased by .1 hour. The previously released new job numbers for February and March were revised down by 78K. Average hourly earnings increased by $.21 for non-farm private jobs.

The Stock Jocks reacted with enthusiasm to the jobs report apparently based on a consensus opinion that the far worst than expected jobs report will keep the FED on hold. 

The slower than expected job growth may be due to a lack of acceptable job candidates. The uptick in the average workweek and wages indicates that many employers are simply working their existing workforce longer hours for more pay rather than hiring new workers. 

Warren Buffett says Berkshire Hathaway is seeing "very substantial inflation" and raising prices

Reaching "Herd Immunity" Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe - The New York Times; republished at MSN.com Reaching "Herd Immunity" Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

National eviction ban overturned by a federal judge

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Markets and Market Commentary

S & P 500 P/E Ratios: 

GAAP TTM = 37.89 (coming down due to 2021 first-quarter earnings reports)

Non-GAAP Estimated Forward 12 months: 22.97

Dividend Yield: 1.37%  (it is not difficult to find dividend yields that are more than 2x that aggregate amount)

Sourced: P/E & Yields

Shiller PE Ratio = 37.84

Shiller PE Ratio - 150 Year Chart | Longtermtrends

Market Cap to GDP-The Buffett Indicator-Updated Historical Chart | Longtermtrends (1.91, topped out near 1.4 in March 2000 during the dot-com fueled bubble)

Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance - dshort - Advisor Perspectives (5/4/21)

The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: April Update - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

Is the Market Still Overvalued? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives (5/6/21)

The stock market may be misreading what weak jobs report means for the Fed.

Forget earnings: Stocks have two big tailwinds pushing them higher (refers to dividend increases and huge inflows into ETFs)

Covid vaccine makers' shares seesaw after the U.S. says it will back patent waivers IMO, that is just a horrible and idiotic idea. 

Selected Earnings Reports from Owned Stocks

Arrow Reports $13.3 million in Net Income and Diluted EPS of $0.85 in Q1 (The 1 analyst estimate was at $.69 per share; NIM 3.02%, down from 3.09% in the 2020 first quarter and up from 2.99% in the 2020 4th Q; Charge off ratio = .07%; NPA Ratio = .22%; ROA = 1.45%; ROE = 15.81%; ROTE = 17%; tangible book value per share= $20.49; total risk based capital ratio = 15.49%)

Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB) Reports First Quarter Results; Record Core ROA (GAAP E.P.S. = $.63 with non-GAAP "core" at $.68, no analyst coverage; core NIM at 2.78%; Coverage Ratio = 168%; Charge off ratio = .03%; NPL Ratio = .55%; core return on tangible assets = 15%; core ROA = 1.11%; tangible equity to tangible assets = 7.73%; tangible book value per share = $18.34, up from $17.09 as of 3/31/20)     

Beazer Homes (BZH) Reports Strong Second Quarter Fiscal 2021 Results (Diluted E.P.S. from continuing operations of $.81 with consensus at $.565 per Fidelity; "The dollar value of homes in backlog as of March 31, 2021 increased 54.9% to $1,386.4 million, representing 3,303 homes, compared to $895.0 million, representing 2,231 homes, at the same time last year. The average selling price of homes in backlog was $419.7 thousand, up 4.6% year-over-year."; total home closings = 1,388 with the average selling price of $394.4K) 

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) earnings Q1 2021 (Quarterly operating profit of $7.02B or about $4,600 per Class A share and $5.87 for the B class; $6.6B in stock purchases; net income of $11.71B; ended the quarter with $145.5M in cash; Apple (AAPL) was the largest stock holding valued at $110.9B, 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/21BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. website)  

Covanta Holding Corporation (CVA) Reports 2021 First Quarter Results and Increases 2021 Guidance (Net income = $2M, adjusted EBITDA = $106M; revenues = $498M; net cash provided by operating activities = $52M; free cash flow = $19M; consensus E.P.S. at -.14; free cash guidance for 2021 now at $125M to $155M, up from $100M to $140M in previous guidance and up from 2020 actual of $92M; long term outlook = free cash flow of $250M by 2024) 

CubeSmart (CUBE) Reports First Quarter 2021 Results (Adjusted FFO at $.47 per share; "Same-store occupancy during the quarter averaged 93.8% and ended the quarter at 94.4%"; "As of March 31, 2021, the Company’s total owned portfolio included 543 stores containing 38.7 million rentable square feet")

Entergy (ETR) Reports First Quarter Earnings (GAAP E.P.S. = $1.66; Non-GAAP at $1.47 with consensus at $1.169 according to Fidelity; non-GAAP net income at $297M; "Entergy affirmed its 2021 adjusted EPS guidance range of $5.80 to $6.10")

First Community Bankshares, Inc. (FCBC) Announces Record First Quarter Results and Quarterly Cash Dividend (Diluted E.P.S. = $.82 with consensus at $.54; net income at $14.6M; NIM = 3.94%; ROA = 1.94%; ROE = 13.94%; ROTE = 20.54%; NPL Ratio = 1.24%; tangible book value per share = $16.47)

First Financial Northwest, Inc. (FFNW) Reports First Quarter Net Income of $2.5 Million or $0.26 per Diluted Share (E.P.S.= $.28 with consensus at $.231 according to Fidelity; NIM = 3.31%;  efficiency ratio = 70%; ROA = .73%; ROE = 6.42%; Charge off ratio = 0% NPL Ratio = .18%; NPA Ratio = .17%; NPL Ratio = .18%; Coverage Ratio = 130.01%; tangible book value per share = $16.17; total capital ratio = 15.62%)

Flushing Financial (FFIC) Fourth Consecutive Quarter of Record Net Interest Income (E.P.S. =$.6; core E.P.S. at $.54 with consensus using that measure at $.469 per Fidelity; efficiency ratio 58.6%; NIM = 3.18%; NPL Ratio = .31%; NPA Ratio = .26%; Charge off ratio = .17%; Coverage Ratio = 212.87%; ROA = .83%; ROE = 10.96%; tangible book value per share = $19.99, up from $18.92 as of 3/31/20; total risk based capital ratio = 12.85%)

General Dynamics (GD) Reports First-Quarter 2021 Financial Results (E.P.S. = $2.48 with consensus at $2.301 according to Fidelity; net income at $708M; revenues up 7.3% to $9.4B; record backlog of $89.6B, up 4.5% from the year-ago quarter; company repurchased $744 in shares at an average price of $161.38 during the quarter)

Kraft Heinz (KHC) Reports First Quarter 2021 Results (GAAP E.P.S. of $.46; non-GAAP at $.72 with consensus at $.592 according to Fidelity; net sales at $6.394B, up from 6.157 in the year-ago quarter, organic sales up 2.5%)

Merck  (MRK) Announces First-Quarter 2021 Financial Results (GAAP E.P.S. at $1.25; Non-GAAP at $1.4 with consensus at $1.61 according to FactSet; non-GAAP net income at $3.556B; revenues at $12.08B; "ExpectsFull-Year 2021 GAAP EPS to be Between $5.05 and $5.25; Continues to Expect Non-GAAP EPS to be Between $6.48 and $6.68, Including a Positive Impact from Foreign Exchange of Less Than 3%, Assuming Organon is Part of Merck for the Full Year; Keytruda sales up 16% Y-O-Y to $3.899B)

Sanofi (SNY) continued its growth trajectory. Strong increase in Q1 2021 business EPS(1) at CER ("Business" E.P.S. at €1.61, up 5% on a reported basis and up 15% at CER with consensus at €1.38 using that metric according to Barron's; IFRS E.P.S. at €1.25; "Specialty Care sales grew 15.3%, due to strong Dupixent performance (+45.6% to €1,047 million) and oncology launches")

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Gaetz To Yell His Way Through Scandal By Kicking Up Dirt Within GOP Amid Sex Trafficking Probe

Oregon Republican Mike Nearman charged with letting rioters breach state Capitol - The Washington Post

Kansas republican politician arrested for battery of high school student

AZ Sec of State Assigned Protection After Getting Death Threats Because of That Ridiculous Election ‘Audit’

Looks like the Republican House members will soon oust Liz Cheney from her leadership role for telling the truth about the election. The former George Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson succinctly summed up the sorry state of affairs in Trump's party as follows: "The GOP is increasingly defined not by its shared beliefs, but by its shared delusions. To be a loyal Republican, one must be either a sucker or a liar. . .  Knowingly repeating a lie — an act of immorality — is now the evidence of Republican fidelity."  

The GOP is not a conservative party.  An important first step is to quit agreeing with their self-anointed conservative label. 

Trump's agenda: Retribution against foes, command spotlight and total domination of GOP - The Washington Post

Opinion | Trump and his perpetrators and bystanders own a Republican Party incompatible with democracy - The Washington Post

The dirty little secret of Trumpism that Elise Stefanik reveals 

The Republicans in Arizona hired a Trump conspiracy theorist to "audit" the ballots cast in the presidential election. A cybersecurity expert who promoted claims of fraud in the 2020 election is leading the GOP-backed recount of millions of ballots in Arizona - The Washington Post Among the claims being examined by the Republicans is whether the ballots have traces of bamboo indicating they were manufactured in Asia and were used as part of a scheme to steal the election from Don the Authoritarian. Arizona Secretary of State letter about Maricopa recount - The Washington Post  

++++

1. Bought 100 CU:CA at C$34.25 (C$1 IB Commission)


Quote: Canadian Utilities Limited (CU-TO) 

Closing Price 5/7/21: CU.TO C$34.94  +C$0.44 +1.28% 

"Canadian Utilities is a diversified global energy infrastructure corporation delivering essential services, service excellence and innovative business solutions in Utilities (electricity transmission and distribution, natural gas transmission and distribution, and international electricity operations); Energy Infrastructure (electricity generation, energy storage, and industrial water solutions); and Retail Energy (electricity and natural gas retail sales)." 

CDUAF  Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

2020 Annual Report.pdf

See: 3 Canadian Stocks for Investors to Buy for Value and Income | InvestorPlace

In September 2019, the company sold its coal-fired generation and currently owns only natural gas, hydro and solar generation.  


Website: Canadian Utilities | Utilities | Energy

Credit Ratings (senior unsecured debt rated at BBB+ by S & P and at A  by DBRS. 

I also bought the USD-priced ordinary shares that trade on the U.S. pink sheet exchange. See Item # 2.E. below. USD Quote: CDUAF Stock Price | Canadian Utilities Ltd. Cl A Stock Quote (U.S.: OTC) | MarketWatch Symbols ending in "F" denote a foreign stock's ordinary shares rather than an ADR.  

Atco Ltd. owns 52.5% of Canadian Utilities

Feb 2021 Investor Presentation  This presentation includes information relating to Atco. 

CU.TO - Canadian Utilities Limited Profile | Reuters

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.4398 (C$1.76 annually)

Canadian Utilities | Dividends & Stock Splits

Recent Dividend History


The dividend yield will depend in part on the CAD/USD conversion rate. 

When held by a U.S. citizen in a taxable account, Canada is entitled by its tax treaty with the U.S. to withhold 15% as a dividend tax. No withholding is permitted by the current tax treaty when the stock is held in a U.S. citizen's retirement account. The company is not a pass-through entity (e.g. a Canadian REIT)

Long Term Dividend History:


Last Ex-Dividend: 5/5/21 (after purchase)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): This report was released after my purchases.  

Canadian Utilities Reports First Quarter 2021 Earnings

Adjusted E.P.S. = C$.7, up C$.04 from the 2020 first quarter 

Net Income = C$191M

Other News: Canadian Utilities Acquires Pioneer Pipeline for $255 Million (10/1/20)

2. Small Ball

Small ball, a baseball derived term, is primarily designed as a capital preservation strategy that I use in either a bear market or a bull market when valuations are rich using traditional valuation criteria as now.  

I have now turned off dividend reinvestment for almost all owned stocks and have been profitably selling shares purchased with dividends. Those trading strategies are part of the ongoing capital preservation plan.    

Recently, I have been buying some beaten-down high flyers using the small ball trading technique. Those stocks do not pay dividends. My monetary exposure is meaningless to me. 

The focus remains on mitigating risk and generating income, while still maintaining a relatively small stock allocation. 

A. Started RIGL in Schwab Taxable-Bought 10 at $3.27; 5 at $3.12:


I also bought 10 in my Vanguard taxable account. 

Quote: Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Closing Price 5/7/21: RIGL $3.38  +$0.1200 +3.68% 

Website: Rigel Pharmaceuticals

Rigel SEC Filings 

I discussed this purchase in a 3/13/20 comment

I still own 100 shares bought at $1.71. Item # 5.A. Bought 100 RIGL at $1.71 (10/2/2019 Post)

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

I decided to buy a few more shares based on these developments:

Positive Topline Data Shows Fostamatinib Meets Primary Endpoint of Safety in Phase 2 Clinical Trial in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19

Rigel Announces Closing of Strategic Collaboration with Lilly

Excluding collaboration payments, operating results will likely remain negative for some time. 

5-year operating results


2020 Annual Report Note that the share count is exploding higher. "During the year ended December 31, 2020, net product sales of TAVALISSE was $61.7 million which represented a year over year increase of 41%. This was primarily due to improved persistency of therapy among patients on TAVALISSE, the continued uptake and use of the product in steroid refractory patients, and to a lesser extent, annual price increase of our drug." Page 75 

The agreement with Lilly is described starting at page 125. 



CNS = Central Nervous System

Eli Lilly to Codevelop Inhibitors for Neurodegenerative Diseases This article contains a more detailed discussion. 

Rigel recently received the $125M upfront payment from Lilly. Rigel Announces Closing of Strategic Collaboration with Lilly

Drugs: 


Lilly will commence a Phase 2 study of R552 later this year, so the drug is a long way off from being approved by the FDA. A good chunk of the $125M received by Rigel will be used to finance its shares of the ongoing trials.  

Last Earnings Report (2/31/21): Released after purchase. 


Net Income: $39.5M or $.22 per diluted share. 
Revenues included only $12.4M in TAVALISSE net product sales.
Contract Revenues = $65.642M
Government Contract Revenues = $3M

Of the contract revenues, $60.6M was related to the license agreement with Lilly. 
 
TAVALISSE revenues in the 2020 4th quarter were reported at $17.8M. Rigel Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Financial Results and Provides Business Update

I am attributing the stock's price weakness to disappointing TAVALISSE sales that are undermining other positive news items. The decline in revenues may be related, at least in part, to the pandemic's resurgence during the first quarter.    

Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.E. Sold 50 RIGL at $3.06 (12/25/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.05); South Gent's Comment Blog # 4 (sold 150 RIGL at $2.93 that was bought at $2.15; profit = $109.24)

Given the dicey nature of this stock, I will keep my total monetary exposure near my prior realized gains so that I am playing mostly with the house's money. 

RIGL Realized Gains to Date = $118.28

B. Bought 1 IBB at $148.75


Quote: IBB | iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF Overview | MarketWatch

Closing Price 5/7/21: IBB $149.71 +$1.31 +0.88% 

Sponsor's Website: iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF | IBB

Expense Ratio: .46%

Top Ten Holdings as of 4/30/21: 

Morningstar Rating: 3 stars

C. Started GRX in Schwab Taxable-Bought 10 at $12.68


Quote: Gabelli Healthcare & Wellness Trust Overview - A CEF

Closing Price 5/7: GRX $13.30  +$0.06 +0.45% 

SEC Filings

Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 12/31/20)

Sponsor's Website: GAMCO

Top 10 Holdings as of 3/3120

Data Date of 4/13/21 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $14.54

Closing Market Price: $12.67

Discount: -12.46%

Sourced: GRX CEF Connect 

Prior DiscussionItem # 1.H. Started GRX in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 10 at $12.27; 10 at $12.14 (2/27/21 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share

Yield at $12.68 = 4.73%

D. Eliminated EXC-Sold  4 EXC at $45.28 and 3 at $45.22 (Small ball positions in Vanguard and Schwab taxable accounts respectively)



Quote:  Exelon Corp - a Utility holding company

Last DiscussedItem # 1.G. Bought 2 EXC at $35.72; 1 at $35; 1 at $34.35  (10/10/20 Post) 

Profit Snapshots:  +$70.71


Dividend: Quarterly at $.3825 per share

Dividends | Exelon Corporation

Next Ex-Dividend: 5/13/21   

Exelon Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results And Initiates 2021 Financial Outlook

Exelon To Separate Its Utility And Competitive Energy Businesses Into Two Industry-Leading Companies

E. Bought 10 CDUAF at $27.36



Quote Canadian Utilities Limited (CDUAF) 

See Item # 1 above. 

Ex Dividend: 5/5/21 (after purchase)

Closing Price 5/7: US$28.79 +$0.40 +1.41% 

This security is the USD-priced shares of Canadian Utilities that trade on the U.S. pink sheet exchange. 

The price will reflect the CAD-priced ordinary shares traded in Toronto converted into USDs.  

Over the past year, the CAD has been gaining in value against the USD. Chart  Canadian Dollar to US Dollar That would result in the USD priced shares outperforming the CAD priced shares traded in Toronto over the past year and would also increase the dividend yield for a CDUAF owner who purchased the stock last May. 

CDUAF in green +24.58; CU:CA in blue +8.21%

The Canadian dollar may be overextended so I bought only 10 CDUAF shares. 

5-year chart: 



F. Bought 5 MAXN at $19.2; 5 at $18; 5 at $17.3; 5 at $15.73 - Schwab Taxable

Average cost per share = $17.56

Quote:  Maxeon Solar Technologies Ltd. 

MAXN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (Using the consensus estimates, losses are expected through 2023 but the loss per share is projected to trend down)

SunPower and Maxeon Solar Technologies Close Spin-Off Transaction - Aug 27, 2020

SEC Filings (foreign company)

2020 Annual Report Products are described starting at page 46. 

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket 

"Maxeon designs, manufactures and sells SunPower® brand solar panels in more than 100 countries, operating the SunPower brand worldwide except the United States and Canada. The Company is a leader in solar innovation with access to over 900 patents and two best-in-class solar panel product lines. With operations in AfricaAsia, Oceania, Europe and Mexico, Maxeon's products span the global rooftop and solar power plant markets through a network of more than 1,100 trusted partners and distributors." 

My share purchases were made in response to the decline precipitated by a stock offering: 

Closing Price 5/15/21: MAXN $19.31 -$3.57 -15.60% 

The market cap before this offering was less than $1B. The company offered to sell $125M worth of common stock, plus a standard greenshoe, and there was, in addition, a private placement of 1.87M shares. Maxeon Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Ordinary Shares That is a lot of stock to sell for a relatively small company. The offering price was $18. 

Prospectus (see page -16 regarding the anticipated use of proceeds)

The underwriters exercised the full greenshoe option. SEC Filing

SC 13D/A filed by 25.1% owner

3 Year Financials: Ugly


Sourced: Page 67 of the 2020 Annual Report 

Chart: Starts in August 2020, a major bear trend started in February 2021 with no discernible bottom yet, though some support can be seen near $16 where the uptrend commenced last November.    


Last Earnings Report (F/Q 1/3/21)Maxeon Solar Technologies Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results or SEC Filing 

E.P.S. = $.11

Net Income = $3.458M

E.P.S. F/Y ending 1/3/21 = -1.51

I do not have access to any brokerage reports. I noted a headline news item that Raymond James on 5/6/21 raised MAXN to strong buy from outperform and adjusted the price target to $45 from $33. 

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain. 

I have no expertise in assessing solar technologies. This purchase is based simply on a theme that solar power generation will continue to experience exponential growth. U.S. solar industry posted record growth in 2020 despite Covid, report finds 

G. Pared BHB-Sold 3+ at $30.98:

Quote: Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB)

BHB SEC Filings

Stock Information as of 5/7/21: 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Buy Discussions:  Item # 1.D. Added to BHB-Bought 2 at $22.75; 5 at $21.5 (2/20/21 Post)Item # 2.D. Added to BHB-Bought 5 at $17.5; 5 at $14; 2 at $13.8; 2 at $13.5 (5/2/2020 Post)

Profit Snapshot: +$37.92 (4/16/21 sell only)


New Average Cost After Pare this account: $19.49 (47 shares)

Snapshot Intraday 4/16/21 after pare

Dividend: BHB raised its quarterly dividend to $.24 per share from $.22 effective for the 2021 second quarter payment. 

I have turned off dividend reinvestment and have now eliminated shares bought with dividends.  

Yield after Pare (at $.96 annually) = 4.93

Next Ex-Dividend: 5/17/21

5 Year Financials: The charge-off ratio is excellent. NIM rose in 2020 compared to 2019. 

Sourced from 2020 Annual Report at pages 30-31 

Securities Available for sale as of 12/31/20 (Page 72): 

Properties as of 12/31/20

1 Year Chart: Chop Channel Pattern between $28 to $32 starting in March 2021

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): There are no analyst estimates.

SEC Filed Press Release 

"Net income in the first quarter 2021 was $9.5 million, or $0.63 per share, compared to $7.7 million, or $0.50 per share in the same quarter of 2020.  For the same periods, core earnings (non-GAAP) were $10.2 million, or $0.68 per share, compared to $7.8 million, or $0.50 per share.  Non-core charges (non-GAAP) in the first quarter 2021 included a reduction in workforce charges totaling $900 thousand, or $0.05 per share."

Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.I. Pared BHB-Sold 10 at $28.5 and 5 at $30.5-highest cost lots (3/20/21 Post)Item # 3.A. Pared BHB-Sold 40 at $24.48-highest cost lots in Fidelity taxable account (12/5/20 Post)Item # 3.B. Eliminated BHB-Sold 54+ Shares at $26.34 (5/18/19 Post)Item # 1.A. Sold 100 BHB at $30.69-Used Commission Free Trade (7/15/18 Post)Item # 1.A. Sold 50 BHB at $30.02 (5/21/18 Post)Item # 1. A. Sold 30 BHB at $29.42 (3/25/18 Post)Sold 100 BHB Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 5/6/2016 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

BHB Realized Gains to Date: $4,388.09 This is my largest total among regional bank stocks. 

H. Pared IRM in Fidelity Taxable Again-Sold 2.1 at $38.47 and 5 at 41.36



IRM Position this Account Before Both Pares-Snapshot Intraday on 4/19/21: 

Quote: Iron Mountain Inc (IRM)

Closing Price 5/7: IRM $41.30 -$0.35 -0.84% 

SEC Filings

2020 IRM Annual Report

Website: Iron Mountain Inc (IRM)

Investment CategoryEquity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshot: $80.07  (4/19/21 and 5/6 sales only)


New Average Cost per share this account$24.93  (25 shares )

Snapshot Intraday 5/6/21 after second pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.6185  ($2.47 annually rounded)

Dividend reinvestment has been turned off. All shares purchased with dividends have already been profitably sold.

Yield at $24.93: 9.91%

Last Ex-Dividend: 3/12/21

5 Year Chart

Last Earnings Report (3/31/21):  Released before the open on 5/6/21. I sold the five share lot on 5/6. 

Iron Mountain (IRM) Reports First Quarter Results  

AFFO per share = $.81 with Zach's consensus at $.64. Iron Mountain (IRM) Beats Q1 FFO Estimates, Hikes '21 View | Nasdaq (discusses report)

AFFO = $235.4M; 

revenues = $1.082B; 

2021 guidance = AFFO per share between $3.28 and $3.45, up from $3.25-$3.42) 

I. Pared IBM-Sold 1.308 at $132.95; 1 at $136.7; 1.215 at $138.41; 1 at $140.13;  4  at $145 and .418 at $148.01

Regular Hours Trade 4/19/21

After Hours Trade 4/19/21 
I can not trade fractional shares after hours. 

I continued paring into the post-earnings price rise. 




IBM SEC Filings

IBM Investor relations

IBM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

I sold the highest cost lots. I will probably eliminate the position somewhere in the $155 to $160 range. 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.G. Added 1 IBM at $95, 1 at $100; 1 at $102.75; 1 at $105.5; 1 at $92 (5/2/2020)Item # 1.C. Added 1 IBM at $116.16 (8/8/20 Post);  Item # 1.A. Bought 1 IBM at $108.48 (1/23/19 Post)

Investment Category: Bond Substitute

When a stock is so categorized, the goal is to harvest the dividends and to earn at least a 2% annualized capital gain when selling the shares.  

Profit Snapshot: +$31.21 

New Average Cost Per Share = $108.27  (10 shares)

Snapshot Intraday 5/6/21 after last pare

I can not generate any enthusiasm for IBM. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.63 per share ($6.52 annually)

International Business Machines Corporation Common Stock (IBM) Dividend History | Nasdaq

I have turned off dividend reinvestment. 

Yield at New AC = 6.02%

Last Ex-Dividend: Yesterday, 5/7/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): IBM Reports 2021 First-Quarter Results 

Operating E.P.S. at $1.77, consensus at $1.632 according to Fidelity;  

GAAP E.P.S. from continuing operations = $1.06;

"Revenue of $17.7 billion, up 1 percent (down 2 percent adjusting for currency); 

Total cloud revenue of $6.5 billion, up 21 percent (up 18 percent adjusting for divested businesses and currency); 

net cash from operating activities of $4.9 billion, up $0.4 billion; adjusted free cash flow of $2.2 billion, up $0.8 billion; 

Debt reduced by $5.1 billion since year-end 2020" 

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 1.B. Sold 2 IBM at $155.40 (2/16/20 Post)

IBM promises better speed and battery life with nanosheets chip tech - CNET

J. Sold All LGI Fractional Shares Purchased with Dividends


Quote: 
Lazard Global Total Return & Income Fund Overview - A CEF


Leveraged: Yes, see pages 31-32 of the Annual Report (currently low cost at a .9% spread to the federal funds rate, 30-day Libor,  or overnight Libor) 

Profit Snapshot: $1.34 for .776 of a share


New AC after pare = $14.85 (25 shares)

Snapshot Intraday 4/20/21 after pare

Dividend: Monthly at $.1151 per share ($1.38 annually rounded)

I have turned off dividend reinvestment.  

The dividend has heavy ROC support. The fund has capital loss carryforwards (see pages 25-26 of the 2020 Annual Report). 

Yield at AC = 9.3%

Top 10 Holdings as of 12/31/20


Top 10 Holding as of 3/31/20:


Note the significant holdings in emerging market currency debt. 

Data Date of 4/20/21 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $20.87

Closing Market Price: $19.86

Discount: -4.21%

Average 5 Year Discount = -10.36%

Sourced: LGI- CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)

Goal: Total return before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis in excess of the dividend payments. 

K. Added to SU in Vanguard Taxable Account-Bought 2 at $20.93

Recent History this account


Average Cost per share in this account = $14.94 (8 shares)

Quote: Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) 

Suncor's primary attraction IMO is its long-lived petroleum resource basin in Canada's Athabasca oil sands. Suncor Energy Inc. Profile | ReutersOil Sands – About Us | Suncor

See Also: Exploration and Production | Suncor

SU Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

2020 Annual Report 

5 Year Chart

Dividends: Quarterly at C$.21 per share, slashed from C$.465 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment. Under the circumstances, the slash was appropriate IMO.  

Dividends – Stock Information | Suncor

Suncor Energy declares dividend

The yield will depend on the CAD/USD conversion rates. If I assumed for purposes of illustration only that the CAD/USD would be at .80  forever, which is, of course, a ridiculous assumption, the dividend yield at a C$.84  annual rate and a $14.94 cost per share would be  (.8 x C$.84 = US$.672 ÷ $14.94 per share cost = 4.5%)

Next Ex-Dividend Date: 6/3/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

All amounts are in Canadian Dollars. 

FFO of $2.11B or $1.39 per share which included an 8 cent impairment charge

Operating earnings of $746M or $.49 per share which included a FIFO inventory valuation gain of $374M after tax 

"Net earnings" of $.54 per share or $821M.  

Upstream production increased to 765,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day

Oil sands operating costs per barrel decreased by 20% to $23.3.   

Suncor Energy (SU) Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Reduced debt with free cash flow by $1.1B. 

Last EliminationItem # 2 Sold 50 SU at $40.95 (8/16/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $598.08

2014 marked the beginning of a long-term bear market for most E & P stocks. The bear trend accelerated last year due to decreased demand caused by the pandemic. It remains to be seen whether the recent surge in prices is either a cyclical bull market within an ongoing long-term secular bear market trend or the start of a new long-term bull market.  

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments in this post. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.

41 comments:

  1. Very helpful description. Especially what's happening with the jobs report.

    It's back to all news... is good news. That is such a stunning underperformance to write off as, FED will stay supportive. The market isn't rational if that's their rational.

    That related article that Fed may still need to act on inflation has a lot of good points.

    It's a curious situation with enough money flooding the market, and enough heating up demand that there's inflation, while jobs aren't increasing. Very unusual mix.

    A lot of the non-worry is conclusions that it's an aberration and will correct next month (says the article.) I'm not convinced at all. That idea has so much blue sky with no hint of other colors in it.

    ---

    Useful # in that housing article, 1.55 less evictions:

    White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said ...
    “A recent study estimates that there were 1.55 million fewer evictions filed during 2020 than would be expected due to the eviction moratorium."

    Using a guess of 4 people per household on average. 300 million USA people. So 75 million households. If there's 1.55 million less evictions. So 1.55 million out of 75 million (1.55/75). That's about 2% of households.

    So about 2% of households are at risk for eviction when the moratorium runs out or has final status of illegal.

    While that's painful to a lot of people, it's not a dent or catalyst for an economic problem.

    So that answers to my prior concern, that it won't matter.

    ----

    I can't believe overriding patent law is even being considered. While I believe in safetynets, I also believe in not taking a business model by surprise and hugely denting it. These companies were there for all of us, with their risk taking and hard work. There are more fine tuned ways to accomplish getting what's needed to the market.

    I've liked Biden, but there is some honeymoon wearing off.

    ----

    too many characters...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: The Stock Jocks are naturally inclined to project the present indefinitely into the future.

      First quarter earnings reports have generally been excellent and the second quarter will be even better.

      If the government could continue $3+T annual deficits indefinitely and continue to shower free money on the population at least once per year, both with no adverse repercussions, then I would be willing to project the present economic conditions into the future rather than simply acknowledging that those conditions are being created by unprecedented economic stimulus that can not last for much longer.

      I suspect that the most recent stimulus payments have already been spent, or soon will be, by most households.

      If an infrastructure bill can pass that spends another $1T to $1.5T in borrowed money, that spending, along with what is now a normal $1T per year in deficit spending, will keep the economy humming probably into 2023, when U.S. debt may be close to $35T, up from less than $1T in 1980.

      While avoiding short term pain, the deficit spending starting in 2008 will IMO only hasten the Day of Reckoning which will include a collapse in the USD and a failed treasury auction. That Day will be accelerated forward when and if the FED loses control over intermediate and longer term interest rates causing the federal government to pay well over $1T per year in interest payments.

      Restoring a measure of federal fiscal responsibility is unlikely to happen since that would almost immediately cause a recession which would be unacceptable to the political party in power. So the U.S. is going to hit an impenetrable wall down the road with the pedal to the metal.

      Delete
    2. I read this earlier as a good summary of that worry you've been describing for how this is all been working for a while.

      True that stimulus money is out there and will show in this or next earnings.

      Infrastructure will be a steady infusion. It causes a heated up economy, but not naturally.

      It raises some thoughts.

      During prior crashes 1930s and into the 70's the problem was the economy heating, good employment, good slosh of funding, but the Fed not keeping rates moving up fast enough to keep it in check. (I don't have a good understanding of what the Fed failed to do each of those times.)

      But I know now we need rates to manage for a heating up economy, that isn't naturally heating. All the stimulus gov't money is technically the OPPOSITE actions of Fed raising rates. That opppsite action gets my attention as part of the theory of all of this.

      That's so messy.

      But if I want to make money now, I think I need to ignore that.

      But be very wary to get out at any VIX move into unstable (during the recovery phase) since the crash may not be easy to get out of at all.

      What's somewhat worrisome is that seems like it's in the distance, but this is a bunch of odd factors together now. So I'm not sure how it will play out. Will the Fed be able to keep rates down enough for the gov't's debt... WHILE the stimulus and infrastructure is pumping in $ to heat up the economy? All while unemployment says it's not heating up but inflation says it is?

      I'll keep my eye out for assessment articles. Most articles merely point out pieces of this puzzle. But don't put them together into how it can play out short term.

      Hum.

      Delete
  2. con't

    ---

    Gerson's is an excellent summary.

    "defined not by its shared beliefs, but by its shared delusions."

    It will be great when a conservative party forms out of the sane former Republicans, and takes that label away from the Trump club, led by the Toupee Fiasco.
    (must admit I'm borrowing that name.)

    I've concluded that McConnell is a huge socialist. By being the do-nothing party, he's leaving policy rhetoric to the moderate Dems and importantly to the loud far left whatever-they-are's. The public hears those far left ideas and starts to adjust to them. And that's due to McConnell's unwillingness to let any more moderate policy get a liberal vs conservative right discussion.

    Well that's my venting for the week. (Or day.)

    ---

    I'm off the non-working drug with the big side effects. Pre-approved and will start the next drug, next week (also pills). About 50% chance of working. But if it doesn't have these side effects, that will be a win. Already had an easier time taking a walk for exercise. (And got stared at from a distance by a fox for a lot of it. We humans are isolating so much the animals think we are novelties.) If this doesn't work, there's other options. This is so new, it's not even on lists yet.

    An article on the drug, lists CarT as reason why it's not likely to get large uptake (prescriptions). So there's large market expectation that CarT will make novel agent drugs like this, absolute. I disagree. CarT requires a lot of chemo as part of it's prep. It'll be a while before that's smoothed out. So there may be investing opportunity by having a different impression and finding an unappreciated niche. This in particular (by TG Theraputics) is a later generation of priors that were so toxic they weren't used much. So I think the market's underestimating. Especially since I've seen field-leading doctors' reaction, of wanting to try it. I'm the first commercial (non-study) patient for them.

    Granted they're both very excited about CarT. But no one thinks it ready yet for anything but cases that have run out of options, and are not indolent.

    https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/tg-therapeutics-umbralisib-ublituximab-likely-to-face-market-hurdles-but-fda-approval-highly-expected/

    ReplyDelete
  3. Viatris Inc. (VTRS)
    $15.19 +$1.11 +7.88%
    Last Updated: May 10, 2021 9:58 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vtrs?mod=over_search

    This pop is in response to the earnings report released earlier today.

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/viatris-inc-reports-strong-first-quarter-2021-financial-results-reaffirms-2021-guidance-and-announces-inaugural-quarterly-dividend-301287150.html

    Free cash flow: $799.3M
    GAPP Loss per share: $.86
    Adjusted Net Earnings: $1.1164B with 1.2075B diluted shares
    Consensus non-GAAP E.P.S. per Fidelity = $.799

    I have this stock classified as a Lotto, contrarian value.

    I will be discussing an 8 share purchase in my next post, bringing the total in my Fidelity account to 20 shares with an AC of $14.99.

    ReplyDelete
  4. CRISPR Therapeutics AG
    $101.31 -$6.39 -5.93%
    MARKET CAP $8.16B
    52 WEEK RANGE 54.00 - 220.20
    Last Updated: May 10, 2021 at 10:57 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/crsp?mod=over_search

    I do not know why CRSP has plummeted from my recent initial 1 share purchase at $126. I am continuing to buy in $50 increments on the way down. The last $50 buy was at $100.8 earlier this morning.

    It is possible that some investors have access to significant adverse information which has not been made public.

    A non-fundamental reason, which I classify as related to market dynamics, is forced liquidation by ETFs experiencing major outflows.

    As of 5/10/21, the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) owned 4.839+M CRSP shares.

    https://ark-funds.com/wp-content/fundsiteliterature/holdings/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.pdf

    Yahoo Finance has the number of shares owned by that fund at 5,314,530 as of 3/30/21.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRSP/holders?p=CRSP

    Another ETF, ARK Genomic ETF, has a significant position.

    ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)
    $104.68 -$5.04 (-4.59%)
    52 Week Range 54.31 - 159.70
    As of 11:11AM EDT
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARKK?p=ARKK&.tsrc=fin-srch

    ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)
    $77.27 -$3.60 (-4.45%)
    52 Week Range 41.50 - 115.15
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARKG?p=ARKG
    As of 11:13AM EDT

    If that is the reason, I would expect short sellers to be piling on as well. The short position as a % of the float was at 8.17% as of 4/15/21 according to Yahoo Finance.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRSP/key-statistics?p=CRSP

    ReplyDelete
  5. Inflation jitters is the cause today according to news articles? I don't see why today would trigger the worries.

    The bad job's report has worn off it's Fed protection magic?

    I also don't see why inflation worries cause a sell off of tech stocks in particular. Totally baffles.

    ---

    CRSP's chart is so parabolic up, and only had come 1/2 way down. It looked like it could deflate more on profit taking. That was my impression the other day (last Wed.)

    Forced liquidations fits with that.

    Another way to say it, I saw technical reasons for more pullback. The other stocks in that group of ideas had already done more deflating.

    I've seen short squeezes. So the reverse happens too. Short pile-ons that cause downward pressure? Good for getting better prices!

    I expect an invention stock like this to go up and down a lot based on the most immediate results, but that's irrelevant to it's full value over time. (Drug invention results are different; they directly and immediately effect the drug's salability.)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: Boring is beautiful. Staid and boring is even better.

      Think about what the Old Geezers and Geezettes, who are still struggling with their emails, would be buying.

      The price deflation in stock prices is occurring largely in the high multiple growth names favored by the likes of Cathie Wood who has had her moment in the sun. Her mantra is growth at any price.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/10/cathie-woods-ark-innovation-etf-falls-to-new-low-for-the-year.html

      Cramer put his finger on the current trend of unknown and unknowable duration:

      https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/10/jim-cramer-investors-are-leaving-flashy-stocks-for-boring-names.html

      This trend favors my approach more than the growth at any price trend that has dominated the market until recently.

      VTV is up 19.1% YTD based on price.
      https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vtv/performance

      VUG is up 4.92% YTD based on price.
      https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vug/performance

      I suspect the VIX will move back over 20 tomorrow so I have accelerated some my pares and eliminations.

      CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX)
      19.66+2.97 (+17.80%)
      At close: 4:14PM EDT

      https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX?p=^VIX&.tsrc=fin-srch

      Delete
  6. I continued to eliminate fractional shares bought with dividends today.

    Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
    $103.74 +$2.88 +2.86%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/duk?mod=over_search

    DUK received a lift today based on reports that the activist investor Elliott Management has acquired a stake.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-duke-investor-elliott/activist-investor-elliott-has-stake-in-duke-energy-wsj-idUSKBN2CR22V

    DUK also reported earnings earlier today that slightly beat the consensus estimate.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000132616021000133/er-20210331xearningsreleas.htm


    In response to the pop, I sold 1 of the remaining 16 shares held in my Fidelity taxable account at $104, reducing my AC to $80.07 in that account.

    The market sold off late in the day dragged down by the high multiple growth stocks. Those stocks were weak in the morning session and losses accelerated into the close.

    The Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) managed to close with a $.20 gain:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vtv?mod=over_search

    I sold my first VTV share (1+) today at $141.94 and my first share of MGV at $102.52.

    The Vanguard Growth ETF closed down $5.69:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vug?mod=over_search

    The impulse for many individual investors may be to take profits in stocks that have gone up a lot in anticipation of a higher capital gains tax rate. What can add fuel to that impulse is seeing unrealized gains erode rapidly.

    While those investors may be deep into stocks like AMZN, APPL, FB and GOOG, plus an array of high multiple 4 letter symbol stocks, they probably do not own a stock like Kellogg which rose today. Kellogg is your great granddad's kind of stock and has underperformed the S & P 500. So I own shares.

    The end result is that I was up today though I lost almost of the total portfolio gain from the morning session.

    NASDAQ Composite Index -350.38 -2.55%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp?mod=home-page

    Invesco QQQ Trust Series (QQQ)
    $325.76 -$8.44 -2.53%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/qqq?mod=over_search


    Kellogg Co (K)
    $68.21 +$1.26 +1.88%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/k?mod=over_search

    General Mills Inc.
    $63.83 +$0.78 +1.24%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gis?mod=over_search

    I did pare KR in one of my accounts. The Stock Jocks are not paying any attention to the GS sell recommendation.

    Kroger Co.
    $38.86 +$1.13 +2.99%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/kr?mod=over_search

    Clorox, which recently had a slightly negative earnings report, rose $4.98.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/clx?mod=over_search

    Maybe the pandemic trade is rearing its head again. No conclusion can be drawn by a single day.

    Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF (FUTY)
    $43.12 +0.37 +0.87%

    Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF
    $43.41 +.30 +.70%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fsta?mod=over_search

    ReplyDelete
  7. CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX)
    23.40+3.74 (+19.02%)
    As of 10:38AM EDT
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history?p=%5EVIX

    I counted 30 consecutive trading days where the VIX closed below 30.

    The move above 20 today is so far consistent with on ongoing Unstable Vix Pattern where movement below 20 after a Trigger Event is a consider to sell signal. The VIX Model suggests that investors consider buying during volatility spikes, which the burst in March 2020 being an example.

    There is not much that is working today, though the Nasdaq index is falling less than the DJIA, the Russell 2000, and the S & P 500. Prior to today, the selling was already well underway in the high multiple growth stocks.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)
    4,173.85-568.97 (-1.64%)
    As of 10:59AM EDT.

    NASDAQ Composite
    13,253.05 -148.81 (-1.11%)


    Of my major stock ownership sectors, I am seeing several green arrows among mostly forgotten and out-of-sight regional bank stocks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VIX 21.84

      I wouldn't call it a break in the pattern by itself (just to be generous on wiggle room.) But if this turns into another day of over 20....

      I see how staid and value is working! All over the place.

      Today tech growth got some buying. It's odd. I would expect the bloom to be off by now. I am committing to myself, on the next growth rally I will lighten. I'm not that top heavy, but the focus has to stop. Only exception is if covid variations look to close us down again.

      I was down .66% today in non-retirement accounts. I have mostly indices and a lot of IWM which gets hit a lot, so wouldn't have expected that. But it moved like QQQ today.

      Some green in regional? Not much green on my panel. Just TXN.

      Delete
  8. The borderline deservedly hated BDC FS KKR Capital Corp.(FSK) is bucking the downtrend today as the Stock Jocks respond positively to its earnings report.

    $21.50 +$0.37 +1.73%
    Last Updated: May 11, 2021 at 12:32 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fsk?mod=over_search

    Press Release:
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fs-kkr-capital-corp-announces-march-31--2021-financial-results-and-declares-second-quarter-2021-dividend-of-0-60-per-share-301287842.html

    NII per share = $.63
    Quarterly Dividend = $.60
    Net Asset Valuer per share = $26.03

    The NAV per share was actually up from $25.02 as of 12/31/20. Take a snapshot of that to preserve for posterity.


    With the recent price uptick, and after several averaging down buys, I have managed to bring myself up to breakeven on the share price using the aggregate numbers for all accounts.

    FSK had a 1 for 4 reverse stock split recently.

    Last Discussed:
    Item # 1.G. Added to FSK in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $19.5
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/03/bcbp-bdn-cio-clx-crm-cznc-dea-edoc.html

    I have turned off dividend reinvestment. The last reinvested dividend was in my Fidelity account last April where a $72+ dividend bought over 3 shares at $20.91.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I thought today had some positives.

    First, it could have been worse. The market managed to stabilize after an early morning plunge and at least rallied into the close.

    Second, many of the 4 letter symbol market leaders that have been leading the decline turned up during the day, though not in a terribly convincing manner.

    An ETF that owns many of those names is the First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (FDN), which closed at $217.15, up +$2.21. That fund closed at $212.23 on 12/31/20.

    52 Week Range $148.19 - $245.86
    High hit on 2/16/2021 intraday
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FDN/?p=FDN

    Third, several key market leaders, which are down YTD, are staying above their 200 day SMA line. An example is Apple which is hanging around its 200 day SMA line and bounced off it today. I have that point at $122.82 using 1 year YF chart. The low today was at $122.78.

    Apple closed at $132.27 on 12/31/20.

    The VIX hit its apex in early morning trading, spiking to 23.73, before closing up 11.09% to 21.84.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX?p=^VIX&.tsrc=fin-srch

    ReplyDelete
  10. Those are all very strong observations.

    It's be great if there was a big pullback. Buy div stocks at more reasonable prices. But even today, overvalued played out growth wasn't allowed to decline in peace. The investor audience is hot to invest... still. (That tells me.)

    I hadn't paid attention to 200SMA. That's a big clue. Also good to watch and see if it shifts to a sell off.

    I don't understand tech growth and small caps going strong. They usually are, under good conditions. But ostensibly the worry is inflation which is a negative condition. Should have value and traditional growth going stronger instead.

    ---

    There's a mix of factors:
    I can write the list. But don't see how to look a head on how they place against each other.

    -Investors are used to wins and hopped up on them. Everything will get bought quickly unless a real scare is put in.

    -Inflation neg for stocks

    -Jobs not anywhere near growth expectations. But that's sold as just not this quarter.

    -Valuations are high in QQQ. Not as high in a few pockets. But pretty priced in in a lot of places.

    -Fed can let rates increase. If inflation moves faster than they want.

    -Or Fed can keep them low. Let inflaton run while rates don't.

    That's all I have.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I was tired when I wrote that, wasn't I?

    Your points are very intriguing though.

    ReplyDelete
  12. CPI release earlier today:

    "Over the last 12 months, the all items
    index increased 4.2 percent before seasonal adjustment."

    Core CPI increased 3%.

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

    The breakeven inflation rate for the 10 year TIP has been rising steadily:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE

    That number is a Bond Ghoul consensus estimate of the average annual average CPI rate over the next ten years.

    The 10 year treasury yield is currently up only .023 basis points to 1.642%, a deeply negative real yield before taxes using the current 10 year breakeven inflation rate. The Stock Jocks will take some solace from the blasé reaction of the Bond Ghouls.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is a lot of inflation. Even if Bond Ghouls aren't reacting... That is seriously damaging to the calculation for what price stocks should be?

      Or does it only matter if rates also go up?

      I'm still 50% in cash. Obviously wish I had invested it in march, and sold a bunch now.

      Seems like such a fast onset of inflation. The stimulus was just released. That can't be the cause. So it's just pricing in materials and manufacturing in anticipation of demand?

      Delete
    2. Land: There is still considerable skepticism that the recent spike in inflation will last. The core inflation number is more troubling than the 4.2% headline number.

      Energy prices had collapsed in March-April 2020 so the Y-O-Y increase is largely due to that earlier plunge. (gas up 49.6%)

      Table 2 of the BLS release has the price increases listed by detailed expenditure category. Look at the column unadjusted price changes April 2020 to April 2021.

      https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm

      The FED is unlikely to change its interest rate suppression monetary policies this year. And, it is questionable whether the FED will ever allow interest rates to normalize given the federal debt level that is expanding exponentially.

      Almost all fixed income alternatives are likely to continue producing negative real yields. That has contributed to the stock market surge along with excessive money creation that has no use in the real economy.

      Investor psychology may not be the right place yet for a large decline. One reason is the predilection for rosy future forecasts which have served the Stock Jocks well most of the time since WWII. Part of that predilection is to forecast currently favorable economic numbers indefinitely into the future without placing them in context (e.g. massive federal stimulus and extraordinary FED monetary policies suppressing interest rates below the inflation rate) and ignoring actual and potential negative news items and trends (e.g. potential problematic inflation on the horizon).

      The inflation news today is sufficient to cause some stock investors to question the blue sky forever scenario.

      CBOE Volatility Index
      23.31 +1.47 +6.73%
      Last Updated: May 12, 2021 at 9:22 a.m. CDT
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix?mod=over_search

      I did buy a few shares of RDS/B yesterday and initiated a position in CNQ. I will not be discussing those trades here.

      RDS/B goes ex dividend tomorrow:
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/rds.b?mod=over_search

      Delete
    3. Hum, I'll have to mull this over. It's complicated. I hadn't even considered that an energy recovery could be in those #s.

      Shiller's ratio incorporates interest. But that had assumed rates went with it, and there wasn't near zirp.

      ---

      It's ugly out there.

      VZ of all stocks is up.

      Stuff I own isn't back into buying range. I need to look at my wish lists and look around more.

      Delete
    4. Land: The Shiller P/E is computed by using the past 10 years of SPX earnings adjusted for inflation.

      Interest rates and inflation have been decoupled due to massive worldwide CB manipulation.

      A normal 10 year treasury rate with a 2.5% forecasted average annual inflation rate would be around 4.5%. If the market was determining that rate, which is not the case, then interest rates would be reflecting an inflation component.

      Regional bank and energy stocks are mostly working so far today. The bank stocks are receiving a lift from rising rates.

      The problematic inflation that started to develop in the mid-1960s was the primary cause of long term bear market. The increase in the inflation rate started out relatively tame, building up gradually until it was a major problem in the 1970s. When the move up started, stock investors did not pay attention initially since the rear view mirror had 15 years of subdued CPI numbers. The Bond Ghouls were already in bear market mode starting around 1950 as interest rates started to move up, not in response to higher inflation numbers, but to the FED ending its artificial suppression policies around 1951. The bond bear market started simply with a normal spread to inflation replacing an artificially FED suppressed one.

      Delete
    5. OOOOh. Is that what Shiller's is relative to inflation. For some reason I'd assumed it was more sophisticated and fancy. I guess all that admiring talk about it from every direction. Useful. But that's very straightforward.

      The decoupling is the thing that's so different now. I get how problematic that is. Heating up economy means mess for the Fed. Also effects $ and trade.

      I have to re-read the rest and mull. Particularly on inflation now vs what happened back then.

      (I wasn't investing but I remember putting money into savings accounts with double digit yield...and merely moving to a newly opened account could cost big bucks while waiting for the money to clear from old to new account.)

      Delete
    6. Josh Brown - this is good ecnomic news, the inflation is a blip in the unevenness.

      Mohamed el-Erian - 50-50% going either way.

      Charles big wig (I missed which name) - this is inflation. The market will get it.

      Most interesting bit was a repeat idea that there has been a stealth pullback but in individual names getting hit by 50% down.

      I'm going to go through names. See if I like the price of anything. But if not - I'm waiting.

      Delete
  13. NASDAQ Composite Index
    13,031.68 -357.75 -2.67%

    Dow Jones Industrial Average
    33,587.66 -681.50 -1.99%

    S&P 500 Index
    4,063.04 -89.06 -2.14%

    CBOE Volatility Index
    27.59 + 5.75 +26.33%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix?mod=over_search

    The spike in the VIX was sufficient for me to start over the day count for a Stable Vix Pattern.

    This kind of day will produce a sea of red.

    Of the stock sectors that I own, the only two sectors to produce mostly gains for stocks that I own were the drug and energy sectors.

    Up Owned Stocks: ABBV, BP, BMY, CVE, GILD, GSK, INCY, MRK, NVO, NVS, PFE, RDS/A, SU, VTRS, XOM

    There were fractional gains and losses in pipeline stocks with KMI finishing higher, PBA unchanged and ENB down .08% (ex dividend tomorrow).

    With interest rates rising and bonds falling in price, the main buffer was my extremely high allocation to cash.

    I have Apple closing slightly below its 200 day SMA line using a 1 year YF chart.

    I did take a "niblet" in ETSY buying 1 share. The stock has been crushed, with the downturn accelerating after its recent guidance.

    Etsy Inc. $159.34 -$10.50 -6.18
    52 WEEK RANGE $69.35 - $251.86 (high hit intraday on 3/2/21!!!)

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETSY/history?p=ETSY

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DOW & SnP aren't down much yet. QQQ and IWM are down more. So there's room for more deflation of values.

      Market's still in unstable VIX. Today shows that market emotional pattern.

      IMHO, Etsy will continue to grow over time. Especially, they started advertising more during the pandemic, remind people about them. May be a dip first - but they are big enough now to survive.

      Colonial is restarting now. Oh well, my energy stocks will sink.

      Delete
    2. Land: I do not believe the temporary shutdown and restart of the colonial pipeline will impact energy prices up or down. Oil prices are governed by the worldwide supply/demand balance. The shutdown has impacted temporarily gasoline prices in several southern states. Refining margins may be bumped up some over a few days.

      Crude oil closed up today.
      https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

      I view ETSY as expensive but I at least bought 1 share $100 lower than a buyer near the high last March.

      Investor psychology is much different now than in the past.

      For most of adult life, a 2.5% average annual inflation rate over tens years and a 4.5% ten year treasury yield would be viewed as benign for stocks. That was the situation between 1951 through 1965 when the S & P had a total annual average total return, adjusted for inflation, near 15%.

      A 4.5% treasury yield now would be viewed as part of stock market death spiral, which is only a slight exaggeration.

      The ten year TIP breakeven inflation rate closed today at 2.54%. The youngsters might respond, holy cow, the sky is falling. But that is historically a benign annual average inflation rate over a 10 year period. It is not viewed that way now since investors are addicted to extremely low interest rates and have no tolerance for anything approaching normalized rates. Anything that suggests that those abnormally low rates may not continue to the end of days upsets them.


      Delete
    3. I don't mind better rates and inflation at all. But the market will mind. The inflated prices were justified by the low inflation & rates.

      Ultimately it doesn't matter if they go up, as long as there's enough liquidity. That seems gov't assured.

      I didn't realize oil was independently moving up. But it also broke out of it's bear market a few months ago. So it's not totally surprising. Has a while to go to break even for me.

      Delete
    4. "stock market death spiral"

      I'm not convinced that'd be an exaggeration. Just the thought of the Fed buying less bonds, is a stress inducing problem...

      Delete
  14. This is nuts
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/feb/27/bitcoin-mining-electricity-use-environmental-impact

    You get a new bitcoin by running computers to solve complex problems (I assume pre-programmed in by the creator? Or 21m coins so made 21m programs? It's not explained.)

    So you can mine and gain wealth this way. Same as mining for gold.

    That seems nuts. The coins should have been created and traded around. That too is nuts - that someone invented money in this day, but that's another part of the story.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I'm looking at stocks. So far on my maybe buy list is:
    Crsp soon
    Intc, Baba
    Maybe AlaskaAir, Hack

    Nothing is with conviction. I'm bringing up stocks in random order so the list didn't come from a broad look, with sectors picked.

    I was hoping to find some of those 50% off the top in a bear correction. I haven't seen one yet to assess.


    This chart is funny. A real cliffhanger.
    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SQ&ty=c&ta=0&p=m

    Looking weekly it's actually got good support to buy here:
    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SQ&ty=c&ta=0&p=w

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: Airline stocks can be trades but not long term holdings. I last owned in Alaska Air in the early 1980s, when it is a really small regional airline, and have not
      revisited the name since I sold out.

      It does look like energy prices will fall some today, but that has nothing to do with fundamentals IMO. Oil demand in India, the third largest importer, is more relevant to a brief outage in the Colonial Pipeline.

      The pricing of CRSP shares reflects IMO significant skepticism about gene editing among major investors. Note that the market cap is $7.64B according to Marketwatch and VRTX just paid $900M (plus a possible $200M contingent payment) for additional 10% of just one therapy, CTX001.

      https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/05/12/2228423/0/en/Vertex-and-CRISPR-Therapeutics-to-Present-New-Clinical-Data-on-Investigational-CRISPR-Cas9-Gene-Editing-Therapy-CTX001-For-Severe-Hemoglobinopathies-at-the-Annual-European-Hematolo.html

      I will not be pretend to understand the abstract: "Elevated levels of fetal hemoglobin (HbF) are associated with improved clinical outcomes in patients (pts) with transfusion-dependent β-thalassemia (TDT). CTX001™ is a novel cell therapy that uses non-viral, ex vivo CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing in autologous hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) at the erythroid enhancer region of the BCL11A gene to reduce expression of BCL11A, a repressor of γ-globin, and reactivate HbF production. Early data from pts with TDT infused with CTX001 showed increased levels of total hemoglobin (Hb), HbF, and F-cell pancellularity over time. All pts ceased packed red blood cell (pRBC) transfusions within 2 months (mo) after CTX001 infusion and remained transfusion-free through the reported period. The safety profile was generally consistent with myeloablative conditioning.. . . .Conclusion: The updated data reported here confirm previous reports showing CTX001 infusion increases total Hb and HbF with F-cell pancellularity in pts with TDT, and demonstrate the durability of this effect for up to 23.8 mo f/u. All 10 pts were transfusion-free within 2 mo after CTX001 infusion through the time of this analysis. The safety profile of CTX001 remained generally consistent with myeloablative conditioning and autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. These results strongly support continued investigation of CTX001 as a potential functional cure for pts with TDT"

      Delete
  16. iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
    $113.77 +$0.25 +0.22%
    YIELD 0.90%
    Last Updated: May 13, 2021 at 11:45 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/ief?mod=over_search

    One day after a hot inflation report, interest rates are falling. The yield on this ETF is about 1.65% below the annual average inflation rate predicted in breakeven inflation rate for TIPS.

    So who is setting interest rates, the market or the FED?

    For as long as the FED and other major central banks suppress interest rates below the inflation rate, and they have done so successfully for over a decade now, inflation and inflation expectations, which a free market would factor into yields, are not even relevant when determining treasury yields.


    Hot inflation is not going to translate into higher interest rates for as long as the CBs continue their abnormal monetary policies.

    The concern appears to be that rapidly increasing inflation will cause the FED to waiver on continuing ZIRP and unlimited QE forever.

    But even when the FED nudges up the federal funds rate again and tapers unlimited QE, will it accept historically normal spreads to anticipated inflation rates when the expectation is greater than a 2% annual average inflation rate as now? I doubt it since servicing debt levels at normalized rates would likely create massive problems, particularly in the exponentially growing federal debt.

    The main difference between now and the 1950-1966 period, when 2.5% inflation and a 4.5% 10 year treasury yield was just fine for the economy and the stock market, is the level of debt that has to be finance now and in the future compared to then.

    ++

    While the abstract that I quoted above about CRSP CTX001 appeared to be okay, the Stock Jocks are not reacting as if it is positive news.

    CRISPR Therapeutics AG
    $100.06 -$0.78 -0.77%
    Last Updated: May 13, 2021 at 11:49 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/crsp?mod=mw_quote_recentlyviewed

    Since I have zero expertise in this field, all the courage that I can muster is expressed in $50 buys on the way down. On the positive side, the average cost per share is coming down so I am better off by taking niblets than a full position, whatever that may end up being, in one trade at $126.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I'm not doing anything at the moment. I keep looking but can't come to an action.

    ---

    One thought:

    Tech is what's pulled back at 8% on QQQ. So that'd be the place to buy. But investors are rotating out of those - very slowly - but it's a change in wind.

    SQ's down over 3%. Baba over 4%. Almost everything else is rallying including in tech.

    MSFT is only about 23% above top of Feb 2020. So maybe this is the time to pick up some big, solid, tech names. The FAANGS.

    It's merely bringing them from parabolic back to the euphoric pricing of the rest of the market. There's talk about the end of tech lead after 10 years. But that's silly. But maybe lead but by less hang gliding heights.

    ---

    SPY is at the bottom of the channel. 200 DMA isn't in sight for a breakdown. So all technical's logic is this is the bottom of this correction.

    But the catalysts are still here. So will it bounce a little, then head into more risk-off, worry mode?

    I don't think I've ever watched the channel get broken without clear agreement of a real worry actively in sight. This one has most of the big investor names saying, it's not real, "everything's a one off."

    ---

    Overall,
    the market has priced in the recovery. I've been looking at charts (msft was the last.) And just got that nauseous feeling of when it's rallied with so much air below.

    It's priced at the point of fully open. Buying here means hoping for more upside AFTER full reopening (and full opening isn't until the Fall).

    ---

    So I've done nothing. I haven't found a place to act yet.

    Time to look around - at FG, etc.. See what the mood is out there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: My left brain was telling my right brain earlier today that I need to stick to buying stocks that pay dividends.

      An article published by Dow Jones news service on 5/11/21, available to Fidelity customers under CRSP's "News and Events", lays the blame for the pullback on Cathie Wood's doorstep. The article is titled "ARK Wasn't Built for a Flood -- Heard on the Street"

      The article refers to another money manager like her, Gerald Tsai, who temporarily rose to fame and glory during the Nifty Fifty era (late 1960s). It did not end well.


      https://medium.com/@equityschool/nifty-fifty-stock-bubble-of-the-seventies-is-there-a-similarity-with-today-s-market-34b19d7a4cff

      By the early 1970s, shortly before the crash in 1974, the P/E multiples for most of those stocks were in the 50-100 range.

      Check out the P/E ratios for the top holdings in the ARK Innovation ETF:

      https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/arkk/portfolio

      Delete
    2. Div stocks would be great. But they too are priced for the end of the pandemic.

      But if I find them, definitely a buy.

      Maybe earnings will keep rising and so buying now into them is fine?

      I think technicals are now king. More than anything else.

      I wouldn't blame the ARK because so many others did the same. But the overbought into growth tech, needed to revert.

      Delete
    3. Land: The issue is the size of ARK's holdings and their liquidity. As of 12/31/20, ARK owned 13.74% of CRSP (10.412+M):

      https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRSP/holders?p=CRSP

      As of today, the holdings in the two ARK ETFs that own CRSP are 4.74+M (ARKK) and 1.78+M in ARKG. So almost 4M CRSP shares have been sold by this one fund manager since 12/31/20.


      https://ark-funds.com/wp-content/fundsiteliterature/holdings/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.pdf

      https://ark-funds.com/wp-content/fundsiteliterature/holdings/ARK_GENOMIC_REVOLUTION_MULTISECTOR_ETF_ARKG_HOLDINGS.pdf

      The importance of this kid of information is to assess whether CRSP is falling due to some fundamental reason or to market related reasons tied to fund liquidations.

      While that is impossible to answer with certainty, two factors point to market dynamics as the primary explanation: (1) VRTX which owns 60% of CTX001 has barely budged in price as CSPR quickly declined more than 20% since my first purchase at $126; and (2) the holding data for these 2 ARK funds show a large share liquidation in a stock with heavy insider ownership and a relatively small by today's standards market cap.

      The Dow Jones news article that I cited also claimed that short sellers were piling into Wood's long positions.

      To curb the negative blowback on price from indiscriminate and forced fund liquidations, some large funds, like the Fidelity and T.Rowe Price biotech mutual funds need to step up, or the CRSP share price may continue down just due to market dynamics of having a forced major seller + hedge fund shorting. I really want to see them take a big position to validate my $50 at a time "buying program". My last purchase today was at $96.5.

      ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)
      $99.48 -$2.68 -2.62%
      VOLUME: 29.66M
      52 WEEK RANGE $54.31 - $159.70
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/arkk?mod=over_search

      The $159.7 high was hit intraday on 2/16/21.

      ++

      One of my larger common stock positions is Power Corporation of Canada which reported after the close today. I own both the CAD priced shares traded in Toronto (CA:POW) and the USD priced ordinary shares traded on the U.S. pink sheets (PWCDF).

      https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/power-corporation-reports-first-quarter-2021-financial-results-857060159.html

      Reported E.P.S. = C$.82

      Adjusted net earnings was reported at C$1.16, up from adjusted E.P.S. of C$.62 in the 2020 first quarter.

      Net asset value per share was C$45.94 as of 3/31/21, up 11.2% from the C$41.27 reported as of 12/30/20. My 100 share purchase of CA:POW was at C$21.37, a deep discount to the current NAV per share.

      Item # 1 https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/05/angl-bab-brg-ebiz-fax-fbiox-good-hban.html


      The 100 PWCDF buy was at US$15.65
      ITEM # 1
      https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/05/fieca-mfc-mnrprc-sca-scm-pba-pwcdf-scm.html

      The USD priced shares have outperformed the same shares priced in CADs since the CAD started to rise against the USD about a year ago.

      Schwab has the consensus E.P.S. at $.59 with Marketwatch at an average of $.61. I do not know whether those estimates are in CADs or USDs or whether the analysts are using reported E.P.S. or the adjusted number. Almost invariably, analyst estimates for non-pass through entities are non-GAAP. This one will be on my radar for tomorrow.

      Delete
    4. Fidelity and TRowe need to listen and help validate your recent buys... for sure!

      Doesn't sound like you bought enough to matter once it's time to buy in fully.

      I looked at the chart and the monthly on finviz looked like the parabolic buy up... but the trip down was only 1/2 way. It felt like it needed to go 3/4s way down to be in line with reverting to mean and being ready for the next leg up.

      That's basically saying what you've shown. The chart-look is saying there needs to be more unwinding by the extreme momentum buyers, after their buy up.

      So I'm not surprised that the evidence you dug up supports the structural rather than fundamental problem with the stock.

      I've been waiting to buy. This spot has some support points back in Aug Sept, so it may bounce. But the monthly chart looks like the 92 or 74 supports may come into play. Depends if a buy investor decides it's low enough now to buy back into.

      Fundamentally, I'd want to understand why the earnings is so negative for this year and next -500%. Why isn't it steady with this years?

      But unless something turns out, an invention stock can be caught in whims a lot. ARK picking it out to be part of the momentum indicates something solid is there. They had good picks.

      I believe they picked Square. Did they pick Baba? If so then that may be the same pattern of both moving down in big leaps more than the market.

      So short buyers put downward pressure on the price. Smart short buyers will be picking all of these that when parabolic. I even had the thought I should be shorting something.

      So FWIW that's the impression I got.

      Delete
    5. LAND: CRSP is going to burn cash and generate losses for an extended period even if their therapies are approved and generate billions of profits.

      Losses will accelerate as more money is spent to fund clinical trials. All of the pipeline therapies are in early stage clinical trials or pre-clinical.

      http://www.crisprtx.com/programs/pipeline

      The T. Rowe Health Science (PRHSX) and the Fidelity Select Biotechnology (FBIOX) funds are huge. Both have a top 5 weighting in Vertex (VRTX) as of their last disclosures. VRTX is a less risky way to play CRSP since it has approved drugs and profits. VRTX owns 60% of CRSP'S CTX001 having just paid CRSP $900M to acquire just another 10% (plus an additional $200M when and if the therapy is approved).

      Those two mutual funds may be playing CRSP through VRTX.

      As of 3/31/21, both of those funds owned less than 300,000 CRSP shares. PRHSX was at 255,463 or a .176% weighting. FBIOX had close to the same share position with a .374% weighting as of 2/28/21. Both of those funds have far higher weightings in other early clinical stage companies that will be unprofitable for years. So unless the CRSP positions is through VRTX, those managers lack faith in an eventual positive outcome. VRTX has validated through its investment in CTX001 its faith in that one.

      Maybe I could have splurged yesterday and bought 1 share at $96.5 rather than $50. I am up to 5+ shares in my Fidelity account with a 1 share purchase at $126 (previously discussed) and multiple $50 buys on the way down.

      I have no interest in the ETF URA for several reasons. One reason is that I know nothing about the stocks that the fund owns and have no desire to learn.

      The total return over time is pathetic. It is up a lot over the past 52 weeks but context is necessary when assessing a rebound off the March 2020 lows.

      The total return since inception is -74.73 or an annual average total return of -12.25. $10K invested at inception in 11/2010 is now worth $2,507.07. Total return includes reinvested dividends, if any.

      https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator/

      As to inflation, there is a danger that the Fed will allow it to germinate and become rooted in the economy at problematic levels. That could end in disaster.

      For now, the high annual CPI number was due largely to the 2020 collapse in energy prices and a resurgence the current non-problematic price levels.

      And, since inflation has nothing to do with treasury yields for as long as the FED is successful in suppressing treasury yields below the current and anticipated inflation rates.

      I have pointed out that the FED was successful in fixing the ten year treasury yield at less than 2.5% post WWII when annual inflation was at 8.5%, 14.4% and 7.7% (1946-1948)

      Average 10 year Treasury yields:
      https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate/table/by-year


      Historical CPI:
      https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1913-

      There is no historical precedent for what the FED has done since 2008. So it remains unclear for how much longer it can suppress intermediate and longer term yields below the inflation rate. There is historical precedent on what happens when it ceases manipulating rates to abnormally low levels. A 32 year bear market in bonds started in 1950 with the first leg being a rise in yields to market determined spreads to inflation even though inflation came way down from the post WWII levels.

      Delete
  18. FG's starting to expect volatility. He's not painting only rosy from here.

    """The Honeymoon is over, and as investors peer behind the curtain and look past this 100-day milestone, it will be important to focus attention on what comes next. While just about everyone expects the economy’s rebound to be robust, leading to what could be the best annual growth many of us have seen in our lifetimes, it may also be a time to see the volatility in the stock market start to increase. That typically occurs in the “post-honeymoon” period of the inauguration year as policy debates heat up.

    Investors often view a BULL market as this wild and furious rampage, but it often is comparatively tame and boring. One look at the Daily chart of the S&P 500 since last November confirms that. There are exceptions, of course, but it’s usually only when things get “exciting” that I start to get concerned. After this measured grind to new highs from last April, things might just start to get "interesting". """


    He has 3 reasons, 2 I don't buy (1 is partisan). But the 3rd is that inflation and moderate rates higher isn't a big deal, but the market will think it's so.

    ReplyDelete
  19. His conclusion on it:

    """Investors know all of the positives, and many suggest this "cycle" continues for a while I've covered them here week after week, ad nauseum. However, I do not believe this "interest rate" part of the stock market story is over.

    Don't fall asleep on this issue."""

    ReplyDelete
  20. A comment in FG's article suggests URA. FG says he loves the chart.

    It's up a lot, but in longer term, it's at a low still.

    Some div to cover the expense ratio.

    Looks like a bunch of companies in materials that collectively would rally if the sector did.

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=URA&ty=c&ta=0&p=m

    The %s are amount up, and % of portfolio

    * National Atomic Co Kazatomprom JSC ADR -- 23.10%
    * Cameco Corp +39.48% 22.18%
    * NexGen Energy Ltd +50.36% 5.33%
    * Denison Mines Corp +60.74% 3.32%
    Energy Fuels Inc +23.24% 3.12%
    * Uranium Participation Corp +16.87% 2.75%
    * Paladin Energy Ltd +82.27% 2.66%
    Uranium Energy Corp +53.41% 2.50%
    * Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co Ltd -- 1.96%
    * Sibanye Stillwater Ltd Ordinary Shares +28.69% 1.91%

    ReplyDelete
  21. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/05/bmy-d-dpg-fsmex-iivi-nvs-pba-pbct-saic.html

    ReplyDelete