Economy:
Real GDP declined at a 4.8% annualized rate in the first quarter according to the government's first estimate. The consensus forecast was for a 3.8% decline. Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); US first-quarter GDP shrank 4.8%, vs 3.5% decline expected
US weekly jobless claims hit 3.84 million, topping 30 million over the last 6 weeks
The unemployment checks still aren’t in the mail for millions of jobless workers - MarketWatch The system is just not able to deal with such a gigantic influx of new unemployment claims.
Fed decision: Interest rates to be kept near zero until full employment, inflation come back I am expecting the FED to keep the federal funds range at 0% to .25% through at least June 2021.
Fed Chair Powell: Second quarter will be "worse than anything we've ever seen" - CBS News
Kevin Hassett: US economy could contract 30% in second quarter His range is a 20% to 30% decline which is a reasonable range.
ISM manufacturing index April 2020 The ISM manufacturing index fell to its lowest level in 11 years last month. The April number was reported at 41.5, down from 49.1 in March. The new orders component plunged to 27.1, down 15.1 points. The employment component declined to 27.5. Any number below 50 indicates contraction. ISM - ISM Report - April 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
Real GDP declined at a 4.8% annualized rate in the first quarter according to the government's first estimate. The consensus forecast was for a 3.8% decline. Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); US first-quarter GDP shrank 4.8%, vs 3.5% decline expected
US weekly jobless claims hit 3.84 million, topping 30 million over the last 6 weeks
The unemployment checks still aren’t in the mail for millions of jobless workers - MarketWatch The system is just not able to deal with such a gigantic influx of new unemployment claims.
Fed decision: Interest rates to be kept near zero until full employment, inflation come back I am expecting the FED to keep the federal funds range at 0% to .25% through at least June 2021.
Fed Chair Powell: Second quarter will be "worse than anything we've ever seen" - CBS News
Kevin Hassett: US economy could contract 30% in second quarter His range is a 20% to 30% decline which is a reasonable range.
ISM manufacturing index April 2020 The ISM manufacturing index fell to its lowest level in 11 years last month. The April number was reported at 41.5, down from 49.1 in March. The new orders component plunged to 27.1, down 15.1 points. The employment component declined to 27.5. Any number below 50 indicates contraction. ISM - ISM Report - April 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
Millions of credit card customers can’t pay their bills and lenders are bracing for the impact - MarketWatch
Case-Shiller: Home prices were gaining before coronavirus shutdown
Three years of eurozone economic growth wiped away as ECB’s Lagarde forecasts big drop for the year - MarketWatch
German employment survey plummets to record low as coronavirus hits
Coronavirus Relief Often Pays Workers More Than Work I have read several stories where a business owners successfully enrolled in the paycheck protection program, and the employees complained about returning to work since their unemployment payments were higher than the wages.
The US plans to lend $500 billion to large companies. It won't require them to preserve jobs or limit executive pay.
Under Fed’s new criteria, Equifax, Nasdaq and Tiffany & Co. are ‘Main Street’ companies - MarketWatch (companies with less than $5B in annual revenues and less than 15K employees qualify under the Fed's $600B "Main Street" lending program. 100 companies in the S & P 500 qualify.
NIH Clinical Trial Shows Remdesivir Accelerates Recovery from Advanced COVID-19 ("Preliminary results indicate that patients who received remdesivir had a 31% faster time to recovery than those who received placebo". However, there was not much of a difference in mortality: 8% receiving remdesivir and 11.6% in placebo group) This trial confirms my prior impression that this drug will help some patients but is not a game changer. NIH: Critical study of Covid-19 drug shows some patients respond to treatment There have been conflicting reports of remdesivir's effectiveness: Data on Gilead's remdesivir show no benefit for coronavirus patients (trial in China). Experts are placing more emphasis on the more scientifically rigorous and larger NIH trial.
++++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
One reason why stocks are resilient now:
The ‘Great Repression’ is here and it will make past downturns look tame, economist David Rosenberg says - MarketWatch
Stock surge is bear market rally that will collapse, James Bianco warns
Nasdaq 100 flashes a warning signal, analyst Matt Maley says
Too many investors are failing to grasp that the coronavirus recession may be longer and tougher - MarketWatch
One reason why stocks are resilient now:
 |
| Treasury Yield Curve 5/1/20 |
Stock surge is bear market rally that will collapse, James Bianco warns
Nasdaq 100 flashes a warning signal, analyst Matt Maley says
Too many investors are failing to grasp that the coronavirus recession may be longer and tougher - MarketWatch
Intel's boom in earnings is not expected to last - MarketWatch
Expert who called the 2008 crisis says the signal to sell stocks is coming soon - MarketWatch
Analysts expect 100,000 stores to close by 2025 - MarketWatch
Landlords are worried more tenants won't pay rent A national movement is gaining momentum that seeks to prevent landlords from collecting rent. #CancelRent Is New Rallying Cry for Tenants. Landlords Are Alarmed. - The New York Times
Expert who called the 2008 crisis says the signal to sell stocks is coming soon - MarketWatch
Analysts expect 100,000 stores to close by 2025 - MarketWatch
Landlords are worried more tenants won't pay rent A national movement is gaining momentum that seeks to prevent landlords from collecting rent. #CancelRent Is New Rallying Cry for Tenants. Landlords Are Alarmed. - The New York Times
GM suspends dividend, buybacks, takes liquidity actions (NYSE:GM) | Seeking Alpha
Crane withdraws guidance, sees large sales drop - MarketWatch; Crane Co. Reports First Quarter 2020 Results and Provides Update on COVID-19 Impact
Southwest Airlines (LUV) earnings Q1 2020 results in loss and revenue plunge The company sees May revenue down by as much as 95%.
Caterpillar (CAT) earnings Q1 2020 (revenues decline 21%; adjusted E.P.S. at $1.6 down from $3.25 in the 2019 first quarter; company does not provide forward guidance due to the pandemic; SEC Filed Press Release)
3M (MMM) earnings q1 2020 (adjusted E.P.S. of $2.16, up 2.7% Y-O-Y due in part to strong N-95 mask demand; withdraws 2020 guidance due to the pandemic; SEC Filed Press Release)
Ford (F) earnings Q1 2020 ($2B net loss in the first quarter and expects a $5B loss in the second quarter; adjusted free cash flow declined was -$2.2B; first quarter vehicle sales declined 12.5%; SEC Filed Press Release)
Starbucks (SBUX) Q2 2020 earnings (adjusted E.P.S. at $.32, down from $.6 in the 2019 first quarter; SBUX withdrew its 2020 guidance; same store sales fell 10%)
Weyerhaeuser suspends dividend, cuts costs, curtails production (NYSE:WY) | Seeking Alpha
TripAdvisor to cut nearly 25% of workforce due to impact of coronavirus shutdown - MarketWatch
Qualcomm earnings Q2 2020 (predicts a 2nd quarter 30% decline in handset shipments compared to prior estimates)
Comcast (CMCSA) earnings Q1 2020: Profit drops nearly 40%, issues second quarter warning
McDonald's says this quarter's same-store sales will be worse than the 22% plunge in March
Honeywell tops profit expectations but misses on sales, suspends guidance - MarketWatch
Self-storage REITs drop after Public Storage's Q2 warning (NYSE:PSA) | Seeking Alpha
I do not own any of the stocks mentioned in this section.
+++
Reports from Owned Positions:
W.P. Carey Q1 beats; collects 95% of April rent (NYSE:WPC) | Seeking Alpha; W. P. Carey Inc. Announces First Quarter 2020 Financial Results (withdraws guidance)
Fidus Investment Corporation Announces First Quarter 2020 Financial Results (reduced quarterly dividend to $.30 from $.39 even though net investment income for the quarter was $.71 up from $.39 in the 2019 first quarter; the 2020 first quarter NII was reduced by $.36 to account for capital gain incentive fee paid to the external manager, taking the adjusted NII down to $.35; net asset value per share declined to $15.37 from $16.85 as of 12/31/19; the "weighted average yield on debt investments was 12.0% as of March 31, 2020"; 3 loans were proactively place on non-accrual; "Estimated spillover income (or taxable income in excess of distributions) as of March 31, 2020 of $21.6 million, or $0.89 per share"; FDUS recognized $31.378M in realized capital gains)
STAG Industrial FFO beats by $0.01, beats on revenue (NYSE:STAG) | Seeking Alpha; STAG Industrial Announces First Quarter 2020 Results ("Collected 99% of March base rental billings and 90% of April base rental billings to date.")
TC Energy EPS beats by C$0.14, misses on revenue (NYSE:TRP) | Seeking Alpha; TC Energy reports strong first quarter financial results
Crane withdraws guidance, sees large sales drop - MarketWatch; Crane Co. Reports First Quarter 2020 Results and Provides Update on COVID-19 Impact
Southwest Airlines (LUV) earnings Q1 2020 results in loss and revenue plunge The company sees May revenue down by as much as 95%.
Caterpillar (CAT) earnings Q1 2020 (revenues decline 21%; adjusted E.P.S. at $1.6 down from $3.25 in the 2019 first quarter; company does not provide forward guidance due to the pandemic; SEC Filed Press Release)
3M (MMM) earnings q1 2020 (adjusted E.P.S. of $2.16, up 2.7% Y-O-Y due in part to strong N-95 mask demand; withdraws 2020 guidance due to the pandemic; SEC Filed Press Release)
Ford (F) earnings Q1 2020 ($2B net loss in the first quarter and expects a $5B loss in the second quarter; adjusted free cash flow declined was -$2.2B; first quarter vehicle sales declined 12.5%; SEC Filed Press Release)
Starbucks (SBUX) Q2 2020 earnings (adjusted E.P.S. at $.32, down from $.6 in the 2019 first quarter; SBUX withdrew its 2020 guidance; same store sales fell 10%)
Weyerhaeuser suspends dividend, cuts costs, curtails production (NYSE:WY) | Seeking Alpha
TripAdvisor to cut nearly 25% of workforce due to impact of coronavirus shutdown - MarketWatch
Qualcomm earnings Q2 2020 (predicts a 2nd quarter 30% decline in handset shipments compared to prior estimates)
Comcast (CMCSA) earnings Q1 2020: Profit drops nearly 40%, issues second quarter warning
McDonald's says this quarter's same-store sales will be worse than the 22% plunge in March
Honeywell tops profit expectations but misses on sales, suspends guidance - MarketWatch
Self-storage REITs drop after Public Storage's Q2 warning (NYSE:PSA) | Seeking Alpha
I do not own any of the stocks mentioned in this section.
+++
Reports from Owned Positions:
W.P. Carey Q1 beats; collects 95% of April rent (NYSE:WPC) | Seeking Alpha; W. P. Carey Inc. Announces First Quarter 2020 Financial Results (withdraws guidance)
Fidus Investment Corporation Announces First Quarter 2020 Financial Results (reduced quarterly dividend to $.30 from $.39 even though net investment income for the quarter was $.71 up from $.39 in the 2019 first quarter; the 2020 first quarter NII was reduced by $.36 to account for capital gain incentive fee paid to the external manager, taking the adjusted NII down to $.35; net asset value per share declined to $15.37 from $16.85 as of 12/31/19; the "weighted average yield on debt investments was 12.0% as of March 31, 2020"; 3 loans were proactively place on non-accrual; "Estimated spillover income (or taxable income in excess of distributions) as of March 31, 2020 of $21.6 million, or $0.89 per share"; FDUS recognized $31.378M in realized capital gains)
STAG Industrial FFO beats by $0.01, beats on revenue (NYSE:STAG) | Seeking Alpha; STAG Industrial Announces First Quarter 2020 Results ("Collected 99% of March base rental billings and 90% of April base rental billings to date.")
TC Energy EPS beats by C$0.14, misses on revenue (NYSE:TRP) | Seeking Alpha; TC Energy reports strong first quarter financial results
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Trump:
Kushner calls US coronavirus response a 'success story' as U.S. infections exceed 1.13 million with over 65K Deaths
Kushner has learned a great deal about chutzpah and reality creations from Donald. Just because republicans buy into those reality creations is not a reason for anyone else to do so.
Trump's approval numbers ticked up in the latest Gallup poll realized on 4/28/20. His approval number is at 49% vs. 47% disapprove. Trump Job Approval So lying all of the time works in America.
‘Our patients are dropping like flies’: 16,000 dead from COVID-19 in U.S. nursing homes
Trump forcing West Point graduates to risk coronavirus for his ego disrespects their work
White House blocks Fauci from testifying before House panel, committee spokesman says Why? Fauci is a federal employee who is director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
End of Trump’s social distancing rules spurs fears of virus rebound
Kushner calls US coronavirus response a 'success story' as U.S. infections exceed 1.13 million with over 65K Deaths
 |
| As of 5/1/20 |
Trump's approval numbers ticked up in the latest Gallup poll realized on 4/28/20. His approval number is at 49% vs. 47% disapprove. Trump Job Approval So lying all of the time works in America.
‘Our patients are dropping like flies’: 16,000 dead from COVID-19 in U.S. nursing homes
Trump forcing West Point graduates to risk coronavirus for his ego disrespects their work
White House blocks Fauci from testifying before House panel, committee spokesman says Why? Fauci is a federal employee who is director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
End of Trump’s social distancing rules spurs fears of virus rebound
Fact check: Trump makes false claims about governors not wanting tests, and repeats errors about Pelosi and Michelle Obama
Trump disregards science as coronavirus response is overtaken by chaos
'Convinced': Fauci says there will be coronavirus in the fall after Trump says 'it may not come back' Doctor Don's gut is the source of his knowledge about all subjects.
‘We will not have a vaccine by next winter.’ CDC says second wave of coronavirus could be worse. Why the second wave of 1918 Spanish flu was so devastating - MarketWatch
Trump disregards science as coronavirus response is overtaken by chaos
'Convinced': Fauci says there will be coronavirus in the fall after Trump says 'it may not come back' Doctor Don's gut is the source of his knowledge about all subjects.
‘We will not have a vaccine by next winter.’ CDC says second wave of coronavirus could be worse. Why the second wave of 1918 Spanish flu was so devastating - MarketWatch
Influential Covid-19 model shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say - STAT
VA health chief acknowledges a shortage of protective gear for its hospital workers Interestingly, VA claims that it order 5 million masks but FEMA redirected the shipment to it. Trump administration hijacked 5 million masks from veterans hospitals, chief physician says | Salon.com
Trump fills briefings with attacks and boasts, but little empathy - The Washington Post The Fake News President is unable to express genuine empathy. The WP calculated that Donald spent 45 minutes out of 13 hours praising himself and 4 1/2 minutes attempting to express empathy condolences for COVID-19 victims. In the 346 questions that he answered, Disgusting Don used the question to attack someone in 113 answers. He offered false and misleading information 25% of the time. He played videos praising himself three times.
The White House tried to move a reporter to the back of the press room, but she refused. Then Trump walked out. A WH official ordered CNN's White House correspondent Kaitlan Collins to give up her front row seat in the briefing room before Donald made his appearance. Her seat was designated by agreement among the White House Correspondent's Association. When Ms.Collins refused, she was told that the Secret Service would become involved. Donald cut his attendance short and refused to answer any questions.
Governor Stitt (R-OK) asks President Trump to declare coronavirus pandemic an ‘Act of God’ | KFOR.com
Michael Caputo, the new spokesman for HHS, made racist comments about Chinese people in now-deleted tweets; Michael Caputo, Trump’s New HHS Spokesman, Prepped for Job by Writing Wildly Racist Tweets
Trump threatens to block aid for U.S. Postal Service if it does not raise prices for Amazon - Reuters Donald wants to punish Amazon because Bezos owns the Washington Post. Maybe he will allow the USPS to go belly up just in time for the election. The rate increase envisioned by Donald would result in the Postal Service losing more money since companies would switch to other delivery services. Trump says he will block coronavirus aid for U.S. Postal Service if it doesn’t hike prices immediately - The Washington Post (“This is about as catastrophically stupid an idea that anyone could ever imagine,” said Mark Cohen, director of retail studies at Columbia University Business School. “As if anyone from Amazon to the local mom and pop delivery businesses would ever put up with a rate increase like that when they have alternatives.”)
Trump’s claim the Postal Service loses money on every e-commerce package it delivers - The Washington Post (rated as false)
Why Did Fox News’s Laura Ingraham Relentlessly Push Hydroxychloroquine?
Trump Speaks At Fourth-Grade Level, Lowest Of Last 15 U.S. Presidents, New Analysis Finds
Trump’s Disinfectant Remark Raises a Question About the ‘Very Stable Genius’ I was listening to Donald's rift on disinfectants in real time. He was not being sarcastic of course. My only comment, spoken to my computer, was "Doofus Don" strikes again". I did not need to have that piece of information to form an opinion about his true mental stability, knowledge and intellect.
Since Trump has negative credibility, any statement made by him must be assumed to be false or at best misleading until proven with competent and reliable evidence that is truthful and accurate.
+++
Some Recent Tweets from the Unstable Demagogue Don:
Donald has figured out finally that his rants and ramblings at the daily coronavirus briefings were hurting his reelection chances. So how does he explain to the Trumpsters that he is going to cut back his appearances without mentioning on the real reason:
Donald's tweets and other public statements reveal that he is an unstable, narcissistic demagogue with strong authoritarian tendencies. No other conclusion is possible.
One of the common claims among Trumpsters is the number of COVID-19 related deaths are being inflated by a deep state conspiracy to hurt Trump's reelection chances. Donald retweeted one of those claims made by someone who claims to be an ex-cop:
Deaths attributable to COVID-19 are most likely underreported according to several studies. U.S. coronavirus deaths in early weeks of pandemic exceeded official number - The Washington Post; Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): Data Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics
The following are just more examples from 4/26:
Donald is referring to this NYT article in the last snapshot: Trump and the Coronavirus: A Sour President, Home Alone at the White House - The New York Times The two reporters who wrote that article are women.
Examples of "narcissistic injury and "narcissistic rage" are becoming more frequent and worrisome.
Understanding Narcissism and Narcissistic Rage | Psychology Today
Donald's narcissistic injury and rage is significantly greater when he is challenged by a woman.
Freed of briefing duty, wounded Trump airs full collection of grievances on Twitter, retweeting claim of ‘coup attempts' Don the Authoritarian can not stand having a free press challenge his reality creations with facts.
260,000 Words, Full of Self-Praise, From Trump on the Virus - The New York Times By far the most recurring statements made by Donald relating to the pandemic "are self congratulations, roughly 600 of them, which are often predicated on exaggerations and falsehoods". This article is a very exhaustive study of Trump's statements.
President’s intelligence briefing book repeatedly cited virus threat in January and February-The Washington Post According to this report and many others, Donald refuses to read his daily intelligence briefing unlike all prior Presidents and has trouble paying attention to a brief oral summary that occurs 3 times a week. The intelligence community has not yet adopted the colored flash card approach which was so successful for the EU President when trying to explain something to Donald. Trump: Trade policy explained to him by EU using colorful flash cards - Business Insider I would suggest using those flash cards, possibly including a picture of a naked porn star (e.g. Stormy Daniels) on each one to help Donald maintain focus when giving him national security briefings.
Trump Makes Crucial 2020 Bet on States Reopening If things go downhill after reopening, Trump will try to shift the blame to the states. If things go right, he will take the credit.
I agree with David Frum's views expressed in these tweets:
Trump could care less about the harm that he causes. He can not even feign empathy.
Trump tendency to deny past statements becomes more glaring It is common for Donald to deny making a statement that was recorded by video. It is just an absurd version of his out-of-control lying.
+++++
Trump and other Republican Politicians Show Their True Colors on Worker Safety:
JBS to reopen Greeley beef plant despite ongoing coronavirus concerns Another report claimed that JBS tested about 200 supervisors, found that over 40% were infected, and decided to quit testing. Promises to test JBS employees in Greeley for COVID-19 from White House, management not kept The reopening was supported by the republican controlled Weld County commission. So far, 5 employees have died. Fifth local JBS employee dies from coronavirus as union, company trade shots
Nearly 900 workers at Tyson Foods plant in Indiana test positive for coronavirus
CDC: Nearly 5,000 Meat Plant Workers Infected by Coronavirus with 20 deaths
COVID-19 Among Workers in Meat and Poultry Processing Facilities ― 19 States, April 2020 | MMWR The reporting period was 4/9 to 4/27 and included 19 of the 23 states with plants. No mention is made of the number workers tested.
Trump claimed on 4/29/20 that the meat plants have been treated very unfairly: “They were being very unfairly treated. Very unfairly treated.” April 29 US coronavirus news - CNN Maybe I would believe him if he said "very unfairly treated" five more times.
The Trumpsters have taken control of the CDC. That is evident from this 4/22/20 CDC Memorandum that only makes suggestions for improving worker safety at the Smithfield Foods plant in Sioux, South Dakota. There were more than 700 workers at that plant who tested positive. Smithfield and the republican governor blamed the workers and the way they lived together. Smithfield Foods Coronavirus Outbreak: Company Blames “Living Circumstances In Certain Cultures” For One Of America’s Largest COVID-19 Clusters
The CDC goes at great lengths to make it clear that Smithfield does not have to do anything. CDC Smithfield Plant suggestions.pdf It is not possible to read that document and conclude that the CDC is even interested in preventing the spread of COVID-19 when it would cost money for an employer to implement its recommendations.
Cory Gardner Boasts He & Vice President Got COVID-19 Tests for Meatpacking Plant. But Workers Never Got Tested
Workers Afraid Of Coronavirus At Meat Plants Ordered To Open By Trump : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR
Republican governors have told workers that their unemployment benefits will be terminated if they refuse to work at unsafe plants that are fertile breeding grounds for the pandemic.
Iowa tells workers to return to work or lose unemployment benefits-Business Insider;
States tell workers they'll lose unemployment benefits if they refuse to return to jobs | TheHill
Iowa, Oklahoma and other GOP controlled states signal they could strip unemployment benefits from people who don’t return to work - The Washington Post
Trump Signs Executive Order to Prevent Meat Shortage - The New York Times Trump's order does not require the plants to do anything to protect the workers. Executive Order on Delegating Authority Under the DPA with Respect to Food Supply Chain Resources During the National Emergency Caused by the Outbreak of COVID-19 | The White House What Donald is attempting to do with this Executive Order is to prevent state and local authorities from shutting down plants to protect worker health and safety.
The companies will claim that everything is being done to protect their workers, a matter of utmost concern to them, even though they successfully lobbied the Trump Administration to make the CDC recommendations mere suggestions that can be ignored.
Those plants have been breeding grounds for COVID-19 which have then spread to the workers' families and the communities in which the plants are located.
Donald claims that his executive order will protect the companies from liability lawsuits filed by workers and others who contract infections which merely highlight his lack of concern about the workers. It is easy for the Duck to say he has concern, but are his actions consistent with the words? The answer is no except in the Alternate Reality of Trumpworld.
Trump has refused to make OSHA's guidelines for these plants mandatory, demonstrating again his utter lack of concern for the health of workers, their family members and the community where they reside. Guidance for Meat and Poultry Processing Workers and Employers | CDC (OSHA guidance suggestions are not mandatory or enforceable)
COVID-19 Updates:
Why America’s coronavirus testing barely improved in April
WHO: US just reported deadliest day for coronavirus as GOP states reopen
Blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients, doctors say - The Washington Post; Blood Clots Are Another Dangerous COVID-19 Mystery
Testing Remains Scarce as Governors Weigh Reopening States - The New York Times
WHO says no evidence of Covid-19 immunity from antibodies - CNN
Pence to Limbaugh: Coronavirus crisis could largely be 'behind us' by early June
1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest
VA health chief acknowledges a shortage of protective gear for its hospital workers Interestingly, VA claims that it order 5 million masks but FEMA redirected the shipment to it. Trump administration hijacked 5 million masks from veterans hospitals, chief physician says | Salon.com
Trump fills briefings with attacks and boasts, but little empathy - The Washington Post The Fake News President is unable to express genuine empathy. The WP calculated that Donald spent 45 minutes out of 13 hours praising himself and 4 1/2 minutes attempting to express empathy condolences for COVID-19 victims. In the 346 questions that he answered, Disgusting Don used the question to attack someone in 113 answers. He offered false and misleading information 25% of the time. He played videos praising himself three times.
The White House tried to move a reporter to the back of the press room, but she refused. Then Trump walked out. A WH official ordered CNN's White House correspondent Kaitlan Collins to give up her front row seat in the briefing room before Donald made his appearance. Her seat was designated by agreement among the White House Correspondent's Association. When Ms.Collins refused, she was told that the Secret Service would become involved. Donald cut his attendance short and refused to answer any questions.
Governor Stitt (R-OK) asks President Trump to declare coronavirus pandemic an ‘Act of God’ | KFOR.com
Michael Caputo, the new spokesman for HHS, made racist comments about Chinese people in now-deleted tweets; Michael Caputo, Trump’s New HHS Spokesman, Prepped for Job by Writing Wildly Racist Tweets
Trump threatens to block aid for U.S. Postal Service if it does not raise prices for Amazon - Reuters Donald wants to punish Amazon because Bezos owns the Washington Post. Maybe he will allow the USPS to go belly up just in time for the election. The rate increase envisioned by Donald would result in the Postal Service losing more money since companies would switch to other delivery services. Trump says he will block coronavirus aid for U.S. Postal Service if it doesn’t hike prices immediately - The Washington Post (“This is about as catastrophically stupid an idea that anyone could ever imagine,” said Mark Cohen, director of retail studies at Columbia University Business School. “As if anyone from Amazon to the local mom and pop delivery businesses would ever put up with a rate increase like that when they have alternatives.”)
Trump’s claim the Postal Service loses money on every e-commerce package it delivers - The Washington Post (rated as false)
Why Did Fox News’s Laura Ingraham Relentlessly Push Hydroxychloroquine?
Trump Speaks At Fourth-Grade Level, Lowest Of Last 15 U.S. Presidents, New Analysis Finds
Trump’s Disinfectant Remark Raises a Question About the ‘Very Stable Genius’ I was listening to Donald's rift on disinfectants in real time. He was not being sarcastic of course. My only comment, spoken to my computer, was "Doofus Don" strikes again". I did not need to have that piece of information to form an opinion about his true mental stability, knowledge and intellect.
Since Trump has negative credibility, any statement made by him must be assumed to be false or at best misleading until proven with competent and reliable evidence that is truthful and accurate.
+++
Some Recent Tweets from the Unstable Demagogue Don:
Donald has figured out finally that his rants and ramblings at the daily coronavirus briefings were hurting his reelection chances. So how does he explain to the Trumpsters that he is going to cut back his appearances without mentioning on the real reason:
 |
| Demagogue Don Tweet: 4/24/20 |
One of the common claims among Trumpsters is the number of COVID-19 related deaths are being inflated by a deep state conspiracy to hurt Trump's reelection chances. Donald retweeted one of those claims made by someone who claims to be an ex-cop:
The following are just more examples from 4/26:
Examples of "narcissistic injury and "narcissistic rage" are becoming more frequent and worrisome.
Understanding Narcissism and Narcissistic Rage | Psychology Today
Donald's narcissistic injury and rage is significantly greater when he is challenged by a woman.
Freed of briefing duty, wounded Trump airs full collection of grievances on Twitter, retweeting claim of ‘coup attempts' Don the Authoritarian can not stand having a free press challenge his reality creations with facts.
260,000 Words, Full of Self-Praise, From Trump on the Virus - The New York Times By far the most recurring statements made by Donald relating to the pandemic "are self congratulations, roughly 600 of them, which are often predicated on exaggerations and falsehoods". This article is a very exhaustive study of Trump's statements.
President’s intelligence briefing book repeatedly cited virus threat in January and February-The Washington Post According to this report and many others, Donald refuses to read his daily intelligence briefing unlike all prior Presidents and has trouble paying attention to a brief oral summary that occurs 3 times a week. The intelligence community has not yet adopted the colored flash card approach which was so successful for the EU President when trying to explain something to Donald. Trump: Trade policy explained to him by EU using colorful flash cards - Business Insider I would suggest using those flash cards, possibly including a picture of a naked porn star (e.g. Stormy Daniels) on each one to help Donald maintain focus when giving him national security briefings.
Trump Makes Crucial 2020 Bet on States Reopening If things go downhill after reopening, Trump will try to shift the blame to the states. If things go right, he will take the credit.
I agree with David Frum's views expressed in these tweets:
Trump tendency to deny past statements becomes more glaring It is common for Donald to deny making a statement that was recorded by video. It is just an absurd version of his out-of-control lying.
+++++
Trump and other Republican Politicians Show Their True Colors on Worker Safety:
JBS to reopen Greeley beef plant despite ongoing coronavirus concerns Another report claimed that JBS tested about 200 supervisors, found that over 40% were infected, and decided to quit testing. Promises to test JBS employees in Greeley for COVID-19 from White House, management not kept The reopening was supported by the republican controlled Weld County commission. So far, 5 employees have died. Fifth local JBS employee dies from coronavirus as union, company trade shots
Nearly 900 workers at Tyson Foods plant in Indiana test positive for coronavirus
CDC: Nearly 5,000 Meat Plant Workers Infected by Coronavirus with 20 deaths
COVID-19 Among Workers in Meat and Poultry Processing Facilities ― 19 States, April 2020 | MMWR The reporting period was 4/9 to 4/27 and included 19 of the 23 states with plants. No mention is made of the number workers tested.
Trump claimed on 4/29/20 that the meat plants have been treated very unfairly: “They were being very unfairly treated. Very unfairly treated.” April 29 US coronavirus news - CNN Maybe I would believe him if he said "very unfairly treated" five more times.
The Trumpsters have taken control of the CDC. That is evident from this 4/22/20 CDC Memorandum that only makes suggestions for improving worker safety at the Smithfield Foods plant in Sioux, South Dakota. There were more than 700 workers at that plant who tested positive. Smithfield and the republican governor blamed the workers and the way they lived together. Smithfield Foods Coronavirus Outbreak: Company Blames “Living Circumstances In Certain Cultures” For One Of America’s Largest COVID-19 Clusters
The CDC goes at great lengths to make it clear that Smithfield does not have to do anything. CDC Smithfield Plant suggestions.pdf It is not possible to read that document and conclude that the CDC is even interested in preventing the spread of COVID-19 when it would cost money for an employer to implement its recommendations.
Cory Gardner Boasts He & Vice President Got COVID-19 Tests for Meatpacking Plant. But Workers Never Got Tested
Workers Afraid Of Coronavirus At Meat Plants Ordered To Open By Trump : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR
Republican governors have told workers that their unemployment benefits will be terminated if they refuse to work at unsafe plants that are fertile breeding grounds for the pandemic.
Iowa tells workers to return to work or lose unemployment benefits-Business Insider;
States tell workers they'll lose unemployment benefits if they refuse to return to jobs | TheHill
Iowa, Oklahoma and other GOP controlled states signal they could strip unemployment benefits from people who don’t return to work - The Washington Post
That policy would make sense only when the employer has taken all necessary precautions to protect workers.
Without those steps, the clear message being sent by the GOP to American workers is that your health does not matter.
Choose between your health or economic survival is the clear message.
Trump's labor department run by the anti-labor son of Antonin Scalia, agrees with the message and approach. Unemployment Insurance Relief During COVID-19 Outbreak | U.S. Department of Labor With those threats by the Trump Administration and GOP governors, I would anticipate that most employees will be forced back to their jobs, even when the workplace is unsafe and potentially lethal to them, their families and communities.
Without those steps, the clear message being sent by the GOP to American workers is that your health does not matter.
Choose between your health or economic survival is the clear message.
Trump's labor department run by the anti-labor son of Antonin Scalia, agrees with the message and approach. Unemployment Insurance Relief During COVID-19 Outbreak | U.S. Department of Labor With those threats by the Trump Administration and GOP governors, I would anticipate that most employees will be forced back to their jobs, even when the workplace is unsafe and potentially lethal to them, their families and communities.
Trump Signs Executive Order to Prevent Meat Shortage - The New York Times Trump's order does not require the plants to do anything to protect the workers. Executive Order on Delegating Authority Under the DPA with Respect to Food Supply Chain Resources During the National Emergency Caused by the Outbreak of COVID-19 | The White House What Donald is attempting to do with this Executive Order is to prevent state and local authorities from shutting down plants to protect worker health and safety.
The companies will claim that everything is being done to protect their workers, a matter of utmost concern to them, even though they successfully lobbied the Trump Administration to make the CDC recommendations mere suggestions that can be ignored.
Those plants have been breeding grounds for COVID-19 which have then spread to the workers' families and the communities in which the plants are located.
Donald claims that his executive order will protect the companies from liability lawsuits filed by workers and others who contract infections which merely highlight his lack of concern about the workers. It is easy for the Duck to say he has concern, but are his actions consistent with the words? The answer is no except in the Alternate Reality of Trumpworld.
++++
COVID-19 Updates:
Why America’s coronavirus testing barely improved in April
WHO: US just reported deadliest day for coronavirus as GOP states reopen
Blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients, doctors say - The Washington Post; Blood Clots Are Another Dangerous COVID-19 Mystery
Testing Remains Scarce as Governors Weigh Reopening States - The New York Times
WHO says no evidence of Covid-19 immunity from antibodies - CNN
Pence to Limbaugh: Coronavirus crisis could largely be 'behind us' by early June
1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest
Fact check: Louie Gohmert (R-TX) touts product, says it kills coronavirus for 2 weeks (ruled Pants on Fire by Politifact)
Dr. Deborah Birx Says Social Distancing Must Continue Through Summer Months Dr. Birx has lost some of her credibility in her over-the-top efforts to defend ridiculous statements made by her boss. White House Dr. Birx gives absurd excuse for Trump's disinfectant comments: He was having a "dialogue"; Dr. Birx humiliates herself on air over Trump’s “injecting disinfectant” claim - YouTube She did not bother to correct Trump's statements after he made them, preferring to sit in silence.
Leader of North Carolina Protests Against Stay-at-Home Has Coronavirus
German infection rate ticks higher after reopening moves-MarketWatch
Trump's Follies From 'Access Hollywood' to Disinfectant - The Atlantic
IRS stimulus payment recipients lash out against Trump’s ‘vanity letter’ - The Washington Post Trump had to have his signature on the checks and in a "vanity letter" that accompanies the checks.
Walmart store ordered closed after 23 employees test positive for coronavirus
Inmates fear death as Ohio prison is overwhelmed by coronavirus (80% of the inmates have tested positive)
Over 70 percent of inmates in federal prisons have COVID-19
US inmate with coronavirus dies weeks after giving birth on a ventilator
Testing in prisons reveals hidden asymptomatic infections
The federal prison system has slow walked testing so far. Coronavirus: Bureau of Prisons has 1,500 COVID-19 cases, 31 deaths
Coronavirus pandemic misery expected to last two more years, says expert report published by the Center for Infectious Disease and the University of Minnesota; Report. pdf (COVID-19 will continue infecting people until herd immunity reaches 60% to 70%, see page 5)
++++
YouTube and Facebook have become the primary distributors of Trumpster conspiracy theories that lack any factual basis.
Exclusive: She's been falsely accused of starting the pandemic. Her life has been turned upside down - CNN; Conspiracy Theorist Makes Up Fake Story Naming U.S. Army Sgt. As Patient Zero | Crooks and Liars It is unfortunate that this victims do not have the funds to sue for defamation. Perhaps one of Google's multi-billionaire founders will front them the money.
Dr. Deborah Birx Says Social Distancing Must Continue Through Summer Months Dr. Birx has lost some of her credibility in her over-the-top efforts to defend ridiculous statements made by her boss. White House Dr. Birx gives absurd excuse for Trump's disinfectant comments: He was having a "dialogue"; Dr. Birx humiliates herself on air over Trump’s “injecting disinfectant” claim - YouTube She did not bother to correct Trump's statements after he made them, preferring to sit in silence.
Leader of North Carolina Protests Against Stay-at-Home Has Coronavirus
German infection rate ticks higher after reopening moves-MarketWatch
Trump's Follies From 'Access Hollywood' to Disinfectant - The Atlantic
IRS stimulus payment recipients lash out against Trump’s ‘vanity letter’ - The Washington Post Trump had to have his signature on the checks and in a "vanity letter" that accompanies the checks.
Walmart store ordered closed after 23 employees test positive for coronavirus
Inmates fear death as Ohio prison is overwhelmed by coronavirus (80% of the inmates have tested positive)
Over 70 percent of inmates in federal prisons have COVID-19
US inmate with coronavirus dies weeks after giving birth on a ventilator
Testing in prisons reveals hidden asymptomatic infections
The federal prison system has slow walked testing so far. Coronavirus: Bureau of Prisons has 1,500 COVID-19 cases, 31 deaths
Coronavirus pandemic misery expected to last two more years, says expert report published by the Center for Infectious Disease and the University of Minnesota; Report. pdf (COVID-19 will continue infecting people until herd immunity reaches 60% to 70%, see page 5)
++++
YouTube and Facebook have become the primary distributors of Trumpster conspiracy theories that lack any factual basis.
Exclusive: She's been falsely accused of starting the pandemic. Her life has been turned upside down - CNN; Conspiracy Theorist Makes Up Fake Story Naming U.S. Army Sgt. As Patient Zero | Crooks and Liars It is unfortunate that this victims do not have the funds to sue for defamation. Perhaps one of Google's multi-billionaire founders will front them the money.
++++++++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
1. Bought 100 HTA at $22.8; 2 at $22-and Sold 2 at $26.7:
Quote: Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA)-a Healthcare REIT that owns primarily medical office buildings (MOBs)
I have been reading some articles that physicians are having trouble paying their rent and have been asking for rent deferrals. That is particularly true for internal medicine doctors and those who perform elective surgeries.
Closing Price 5/1: HTA $23.10 -$1.53 -6.21%
Website: HTA – Healthcare Trust of America, Inc.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.315 ($1.26)
Dividend growth is unimpressive due to anemic growth in funds available for distribution ("FAD") per share. The quarterly dividend rate was at $.29 per share in the 2015 first quarter.
Last Ex Date: 4/1/20 (owned 100 shares)
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.53%
HTA SEC Filings
HTA 2019 Annual Report
Properties:
5 Year Financials:
5 Year Chart:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): HEALTHCARE TRUST OF AMERICA, INC. REPORTS 2019 RESULTS AND 2020 EARNINGS GUIDANCE
When viewing historical cash flow numbers numbers for HTA, it is important to focus on FAD per share rather than gross "normalized FFO". Both FAD and FFO are growing due to acquisitions but so is the share count.
In the 2019 4th quarter, normalized FFO was reported at $88.871M of $.42 per share. FAD was reported at $72.261M or $.34 per share.
$17.663M in cash expenditures for routine maintenance, tenant improvements and leasing commission is a major expense item deducted from FFO to arrive at FAD. Why would those recurring cash expenditures even be included as part of free cash low? IMO, those recurring and significant cash expenditures render FFO a meaningless number when forecasting dividend safety and growth or applying some multiple measuring stick for valuation purposes.
The other important adjustment to FFO is the removal of non-cash revenues created by the straight line accounting convention. Pretend cash is not available to support the dividend.
YTD Trading Profits: 42 shares +$233.2
Last Elimination: Item # 2.D. Eliminated HTA-Sold 30 at $32.51 (2/8/2020 Post) That 30 share lot was part of a 50 share purchase: Item # 4 Bought 50 HTA at $26.88 (7/13/19 Post) The other 20 shares were sold in 2 ten share lots: Item # 1.A. Sold 10 HTA at $31.31 (1/29/20) and Item # 2.B. Sold 10 HTA at $30.81 (11/28/19 Post)(substantive discussion)
Other Trades: Item # 1.A. Sold 15 HTA at $28.57-Used Commission Free Trade(9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $46.12); Item # 2 Sold 50 HTA at $26.25 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 10/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $124.1)-Item # 5 Bought 50 HTA at $23.45 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 9/8/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
1. Bought 100 HTA at $22.8; 2 at $22-and Sold 2 at $26.7:
Quote: Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA)-a Healthcare REIT that owns primarily medical office buildings (MOBs)
I have been reading some articles that physicians are having trouble paying their rent and have been asking for rent deferrals. That is particularly true for internal medicine doctors and those who perform elective surgeries.
Closing Price 5/1: HTA $23.10 -$1.53 -6.21%
Website: HTA – Healthcare Trust of America, Inc.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.315 ($1.26)
Dividend growth is unimpressive due to anemic growth in funds available for distribution ("FAD") per share. The quarterly dividend rate was at $.29 per share in the 2015 first quarter.
Last Ex Date: 4/1/20 (owned 100 shares)
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.53%
HTA 2019 Annual Report
Properties:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): HEALTHCARE TRUST OF AMERICA, INC. REPORTS 2019 RESULTS AND 2020 EARNINGS GUIDANCE
When viewing historical cash flow numbers numbers for HTA, it is important to focus on FAD per share rather than gross "normalized FFO". Both FAD and FFO are growing due to acquisitions but so is the share count.
In the 2019 4th quarter, normalized FFO was reported at $88.871M of $.42 per share. FAD was reported at $72.261M or $.34 per share.
The other important adjustment to FFO is the removal of non-cash revenues created by the straight line accounting convention. Pretend cash is not available to support the dividend.
YTD Trading Profits: 42 shares +$233.2
Last Elimination: Item # 2.D. Eliminated HTA-Sold 30 at $32.51 (2/8/2020 Post) That 30 share lot was part of a 50 share purchase: Item # 4 Bought 50 HTA at $26.88 (7/13/19 Post) The other 20 shares were sold in 2 ten share lots: Item # 1.A. Sold 10 HTA at $31.31 (1/29/20) and Item # 2.B. Sold 10 HTA at $30.81 (11/28/19 Post)(substantive discussion)
Other Trades: Item # 1.A. Sold 15 HTA at $28.57-Used Commission Free Trade(9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $46.12); Item # 2 Sold 50 HTA at $26.25 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 10/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $124.1)-Item # 5 Bought 50 HTA at $23.45 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 9/8/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
2. Small Ball:
A. Added 1 IRM at $26.46; 1 at $26.07; 1 at $25; 2 at $23.95; 1 at $23.3; 1 at $23.76; 1 at $24.33; 1 at $22.6; 1 at $21.79:
Website: Data & Records Management | Shredding | Iron Mountain
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 16)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.6185 ($2.474 annually)
Iron Mountain - Stock - Dividend History and Tax Treatment
Given the cash flow coverage for this dividend, and IRM's heavy debt financed move into digital records management in competition with entrenched competitors, I view it as likely that the current penny rate will be reduced soon, with the company using the Covid-19 as a cover for a necessary and prudent reduction. I would view a continuation of the current penny rate to be financially irresponsible.
IRM's senior unsecured debt is currently rated in junk territory according to FINRA:
Last Ex Dividend: 3/13/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes when the likely price is below $30
Current Position: 27+ shares
Average Cost Per Share = $27.14
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 9.12%
Last Quarterly Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
"FFO (Normalized) per share was $0.65 for the fourth quarter, compared with $0.56 in the fourth quarter of 2018, or an increase of 16.1%. For full-year 2019, FFO (Normalized) per share was $2.29, compared with $2.26 in 2018."
"AFFO was $228.0 million for the fourth quarter compared with $193.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2018, an increase of 17.7%. For full-year 2019, AFFO decreased 0.7% to $856.3 million, compared with $862.6 million in 2018."
Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM) CEO William Meaney on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Pared IRM-Sold 15 at $33.04 (2/22/20 Post); Item # 1.F. Sold 10 IRM at $32.1 (2/12/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Sold 10 IRM at $33.91-Used Commission Free Trade (12/26/18 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 IRM at $33.82 Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.B. Bought 10 IRM at $29.51-Used Commission Free Trade (7/17/19 Post)
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
B. Restarted DGRO-Bought 1 at $32; 1 at $31.86; 1 at $31.43; 1 at $30.58; 1at $29.9; 1 at $29.3; 1 at $28.8; 1 at 27.9; 1 at $27.7:
Closing Price 5/1: DGRO $35.36 -$1.02 -2.80%
Sponsor's Website: iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF | DGRO
Expense Ratio: .08%
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend: 3/25/20
Average Cost Per Share: $30.27
Top 10 Holdings as of 4/30/20:
C. Restarted FDVV-Bought 5 at $21.9:
Quote: Fidelity High Dividend ETF Overview
Closing Price Yesterday: FDVV $25.10 -$0.83 -3.20%
Last Round-Trip: Item # 3.B. Sold 20 FDVV at $31.28 (12/4/19 Post)(profit snapshot =$36.11)-Item 4.B. Bought 5 FDVV at $29.3 (6/5/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 10 FDVV at $30.2 (4/27/19 Post)
Sponsor's website: FDVV | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity
Expense Ratio: .29%
Some Top Holdings:
D. Added 5 BHB at $17.5; 5 at $14; 2 at $13.8; 2 at $13.5:
Quote: Fidelity High Dividend ETF Overview
Closing Price Yesterday: FDVV $25.10 -$0.83 -3.20%
Last Round-Trip: Item # 3.B. Sold 20 FDVV at $31.28 (12/4/19 Post)(profit snapshot =$36.11)-Item 4.B. Bought 5 FDVV at $29.3 (6/5/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 10 FDVV at $30.2 (4/27/19 Post)
Sponsor's website: FDVV | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity
Expense Ratio: .29%
Some Top Holdings:
Closing Price Yesterday: BHB $18.64 +$0.26 +1.41%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
BHB SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report BHB is a bank holding company whose operating banks are located in Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont.
Bar Harbor Bankshares Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Last Ex Dividend Date: 2/14/20
Next Ex Dividend Date:
Average Cost Per Share: $21.53
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, viewed as undervalued over the intermediate and long term.
Current Position: 93+ shares
5 Year Chart as of 4/24/20:
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.A.(2/5/20 Post)(discussed 2019 4th quarter report)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): This report was released yesterday. SEC Filed Press Release
"To date we have over 1,500 PPP loans approved by the SBA with a total balance of $127 million. In addition, we also modified close to 500 existing loans, representing $271 million in balances. The loans modified under deferment plans are still accruing interest and all contractual principal and interest is expected to be collected.”
"In the first quarter 2020, the Company elected to defer implementation of CECL as allowed under the CARES Act in an effort to prioritize resources around the various debt and government relief programs. As result, the Company continues to operate its incurred loss model, which has been adjusted to reflect current economic conditions increasing the allowance for loan loss. That increase has been offset by an improvement in other credit quality factors including several specifically reserved loans that were settled at approximate book value. The allowance for loan losses to total loans ratio for the first quarter remains at 0.58% with a coverage ratio to non-accruing loans at 152%, up from 133% as of year-end. Past due accounts between 30 to 89 days as a percentage of total loans was 0.84% for the first quarter compared to 0.74% at year-end 2019. The majority of the customers in that range have a history of making payments on a cycle that is about 30 days overdue and is not likely an indication of deteriorated credit quality."
BHB Trading Profits to Date: $4,187.54
Last Bond Offering: $40M 4.625% Fixed to Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2029
E. Added 5 BTZ at $11.19; 5 at $10.96; 5 at $9.7; 5 at $9.29 10 at $11.43:
Closing Price 5/1/20: BTZ $13.10 +$0.06 +0.46%
Sponsor's Website: BlackRock Credit Allocation Income Trust | BTZ
SEC Filings
SEC Filed 2019 Annual Report
Holdings: 865 as of 3/31/20
Effective Duration: 6.22 years as of 3/31/20
Leveraged: Yes at 28.84% as of 3/31/20
Credit Quality as of 3/31/20:
Last Ex Dividend: 4/14/20
Average Cost Per Share: $12.96
Dividend Yield at $12.96: 7.79%
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, for as long as likely reinvestment price will be at a greater than 5% discount to net asset value per share.
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.H. Restarted BTZ-Bought 10 at $13.57 (3/7/20 Post)
Prior Sell Discussions: Sold 103+ at $13.4+ Roth IRA (5/8/17 Post)(contains snapshots of trading profits starting in 2010 through May 2017 = +$870.19); Item #1.B. (2/23/2019 Post); Item # 3.A. (4/4/19 Post)
Data Date of 3/17/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $12.6
Closing Market Price: $11.01
Discount: -13.98%
Sourced: BlackRock Credit Allocation Income Trust-CEF Connect
Data Date of 3/19/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $11.65
Closing Market Price: $10.01
Discount: -13.33%
Data Date of 3/23/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $11.39
Closing Market Price: $9.5
Discount: -16.59%
Data Date of 4/3/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $12.73
Closing Market Price: $11.42
Discount: -10.29%
Sourced: BTZ-CEF Connect
F. Added 10 PFXF at $15.9; 5 at $14.61; 5 at $13.7 and 5 at $13 :
Quote: VanEck Vectors Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF
Closing Price 5/1/20: PFXF $17.98 -$0.23 -1.26%
Sponsor's Website: VanEck Vectors Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF
While this ETF has a "preferred securities" label, the fund owns both equity preferred stocks and exchange traded bonds.
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Eliminated PFXF-Sold 110 at $20.51 (1/29/20 Post)
Restart "Small Ball": Item # 1.I. Restarted PFXF -Bought 10 at $19.38; 10 at $19.3; 10 at $18.8; 10 at $18.4 and 10 at $16.5 (3/14/20 Post)
Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate
Average Cost Per Share: $17.19
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 6.28% (assumes annual rate of $1.08)
The yield calculation assumes the next 12 months will be identical to the past 12, which lacks precision. I came up with a $1.083 per share for the last 12 payments, which does not use the rounded numbers on the far right of the preceding snapshot.
G. Added 1 IBM at $95; 1 at $100; 1 at $102.75; 1 at 105.5; 1 at $92:
SEC Filings
IBM Consensus Analyst EPS
IBM Investor relations
Last Sell: Item # 1.B. Sold 2 IBM at $155.40 (2/16/20 Post)
Last Purchase Discussion: Item # 1.A. Bought 1 IBM at $108.48 (1/23/19 Post)
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.A. (11/21/18 Post)
Current Position: 17+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $122.08
Dividend: $1.63 per share ($6.52 annually)
The penny rate was just increased from $1.62. IBM Board Approves Increase in Quarterly Cash Dividend for the 25th Consecutive Year
Dividend Yield at $122.08 = 5.34%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/7/20
Next Ex Dividend: 5/7/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes at less than $150.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20):
Revenues declined to $17.57B from $18.18B in the 2019 first quarter which did not include the Red Hat acquisition. IBM closes its $34 billion acquisition of Red Hat (7/9/19 article)
Adjusted E.P.S. was reported at $1.84, down from $2.25, but higher than the consensus estimate of $1.81.
IBM withdrew its 2020 guidance due to the pandemic.
Highlights:
Discussed at IBM stock slips as software sales slumped in March due to coronavirus - MarketWatch
Purchase Restriction: I am not using the small ball purchase restriction which requires that each subsequent purchase be at the lowest price in the chain. I am allowed to buy when the purchase price lowers my average cost per share.
IBM is still counting on Red Hat for growth as coronavirus spreads - MarketWatch (4/13/20 article)
H. Pared GOOD-Sold 10 at $18.4 (Fidelity Account):
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)-An Equity REIT
This lot was my highest cost one, other than shares purchases with dividends, in this account.
Rationale: Small Ball Trading Rule: buy the dips, sell the pops.
Closing Price 5/1/20: GOOD $16.93 +$1.13 +7.15%
Website: Gladstone Commercial | Monthly Dividend REIT
Profit Snapshot: +$11.44
Dividend: Monthly at $.12515 per share ($1.50 rounded annually)
Distribution History | Gladstone Commercial Corporation
Last Ex Dividend: 4/23/20
Next Ex Dividend: 5/18/20
Recent Earnings Report: I discussed this report in a recent comment.
Gladstone Commercial Corporation Reports Results for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2020
Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD) CEO David Gladstone on Q1 2020 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha ("All cash-based rent from March was paid as scheduled and approximately 98% of April schedule based rent has been paid. The company granted rent deferrals to three tenants in April representing approximately 2% of total monthly rental income. These tenants continue to pay partial rent, the deferrals ranged from 1.5 to 3 months and the payback period ranges from 6 months to 9 months." page 3 where the company also discusses recent tenant vacancies and efforts to renew leases for those properties.)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.G. Bought 10 GOOD at $16.7; 10 at $16.4; 10 at $16; 10 at $15.7; 5 at $14.2, 5 at $13.6, 5 at $12.8; 5 at $12.1, 2 at $11.4, 2 at $10.85 and 2 at $9.5(4/11/20 Post)(used small ball purchase restriction)
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.C. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account-Sold 50+ at $20.88 and Item # 1.D. Sold Highest Cost GOOD Share in Fidelity Account at $21.36 (3/3/19 Post)
New Average Cost Per Share Fidelity Account: $14.78
Dividend Yield at $14.78 = 10.15%
I. Bought 20 GOOD at an Average Cost Per Share of $10.02 (Schwab Account) and 16 GOOD at an Average Cost Per Share of $10.42 (Vanguard):
Both of these accounts are taxable. I also bought GOOD in two Roth IRA accounts. Those taxable account total cost numbers are currently unadjusted for ROC which will be made after GOOD reports the tax classifications for 2020 dividend payments in 2021.
 |
| Share Price Intraday 4/29/20 |
2019 Tax Classification:
2018: Tax Classification:
Dividend yield at $10.02 = 14.97%
Dividend Yield at $10.42 = 14.4%
3. U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Bought 10 VNOPRM at $19; 5 at $16.5 and 5 at $14.5
Closing Price 5/1/20: VNO-PM $22.33 0.00 0.00%
Issuer: Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
VNO SEC Filings
VNO 2019 Annual Report
Last Round-Trip: Item # 2.A. Sold 50 VNOPRM at $22.95 (3/23/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $56.68/sold on ex dividend date)
Investment Categories: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, a subcategory of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Dividends: Quarterly, cumulative and non-qualified as a pass through entity
Optional Call: On or after 12/13/2022 at par value plus accrued and unpaid dividends
Stopper Clause: Yes
Average Cost per share = $16.67
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 7.87%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/13/20
Average Cost per share = $16.67
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 7.87%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/13/20
B. Added 2 EPRPRC at $15.24; 3 at $14.5; 5 at $13.5; 5 at $12.95; 1 at $11; 1 at 10 and Sold 10 Shares at $17.5 and 5 shares at $16.22:
Purchases:
Reduced Average Cost to $12.54:
 |
| 10 Shares Remaining/snapshot intraday on 4/13/20 |
Closing Price 5/1: EPR-PC $17.80 -$0.50 -2.73%
Issuer: EPR Properties (EPR)
Portfolio Overview - EPR Properties
EPR Properties Reports Fourth Quarter and 2019 Year-end Results
Given the impact of COVID-19 on the issuer's business, this preferred stock is in the high risk category. A dividend deferral is a possibility when and if operations have to be remained closed through the summer months. To defer the preferred share dividend, EPR would first have to eliminate in its entirety common share cash dividends.
Sold 10 at $17.5 (highest cost lot):
Profit Snapshot (15 shares): +$16.6
Dividend Yield at $12.54 = 11.46%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/30/20 (paid on all 25 shares)
EPRPRC Trading Profits To Date: $579.88 (prior trades +$563.28)
Prior Discussion Links: Item # 3 Sold 50 EPRPRC at $27.49 (10/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $178.58)-Item # 1 Bought 50 EPRPRC at $23.78-Used Commission Free Trade (4/23/18 Post)
Item # 1.B. Sold 50 EPRPRC at $28.48 (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $224.22)-Item # 1 Bought 50 EPRPRC at $24 and 50 at $23.78 (4/23/18)
Item # 3 Sold 50 EPRPRC-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $160.48)
EPR may defer preferred stock dividend payments IMO. A deferral of those dividends would require first the elimination of the common share cash dividend. The preferred dividends will still accrue since they are cumulative. That does not mean that the deferred amounts will be paid, but only that the deferred amounts will have to be paid before the company resumed paying cash dividends to common stock owners.
I also eliminated my position in EPR's common stock. I had only bought 2 shares, and sold that lot at $31.6 realizing a $9.2 gain.
 |
| SOLD 2 EPR-ELIMINATION |
A. Restarted EBAYL- Bought 5 at $22.74:
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a sub-category of Exchange Traded Bond
Closing Price 5/1/20: EBAYL $26.10 +$0.08 +0.31%
Maybe I could have been more adventuresome with this one.
Quote: eBay Inc. 6% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2056
Last Round-Trip: Item # 2.A. Sold 30 EBAYL at $26.67 (10/2/2017 Post)-South Gent's Comment Blog # 6: Bought 30 EBAYL at $24.99(profit snapshot =$59.28)
Prospectus
Par Value $25
Makes Quarterly Interest Payments
Coupon: 6%
Optional Call Date: On or After 3/1/21 at Par
Maturity: 2/1/2056
Issuer: eBay Inc. (EBAY)
Issuer SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report (debt listed at page F-30)
5. Short Term Investment Grade Corporate Bonds as an Alternative To MM funds:
Since I published a list of securities maturing this month (Item # 3), more issuers have elected to redeem bonds maturing later this year during March.
One of the new redemption notices was received for the 2.9% Biogen bond, discussed in Item 5.B. below), that was recently bought. That redemption will be subject to a make whole.
I received a notice last night from Fidelity that the AT & T bond bond maturing on 6/30/20 will be called on 5/30:
I am going to quit listing the securities maturing each month, since so much is changing on the redemption dates due to the plunge in short term rates and issuers exercising their optional redemption rights.
A. Bought 10 Virginia Electric Power 3.45% SU Bonds Maturing on 9/1/2022:
I discussed this purchase in a comment published on 3/24/20.
This chart shows how the bottom fell out in March, presenting a few days where this bond was obviously being mispriced:
The last trade was at 104.22.
 |
| Third Party Price Higher at 104.4952 |
Issuer: VEPCO is a large electric utility whose service territory encompasses most of Virginia. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of Dominion Energy Inc. (D)
Dominion 2019 Annual Report:
YTM at TC = 3.961%
Current Yield at TC = 3.491%
On 5/1/20, the 2 and 3 year treasury yields closed at .2% and .25% respectively.
B. Bought 2 Biogen 2.9% SU Bonds Maturing on 9/15/20:
I received notice that BIIB will redeem this bond in late May.
The redemption will be subject to a make whole payment.
I sold 2 of these bonds at 100.7: Item # 3.B. (10/8/19 Post)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
Issuer: Biogen Inc. (BIIB)
BIIB | Biogen Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Biogen SEC Filings
Credit Ratings:
YTM at Total Cost = 3.769%
Issuer: Cigna Corp. (CI)
CI | Cigna Corp. Analyst Estimates
Cigna Delivers Strong 2019 Results, Expects Continued Attractive Revenue and Earnings Growth in 2020
Credit Ratings: Financial Strength and Credit Ratings | Cigna
S & P at A-
Moody's at Baa2
Fitch at BBB
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.6
YTM at TC = 4.051%
 |
| Third Party Price as of 5/1: 100.674 |
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: AZN | AstraZeneca PLC ADR Overview
Credit Rating: A3 Moody's
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.607
YTM at TC = 4.592%
 |
| Third Party Price as of 5/1/20 at 100.632 |
The Great Repression - goes with...
ReplyDelete"The Great Hermitage"
and
"The Great Hibernation"
----
There's expectation that the market's going to reverse here. Futures tonight are red & have for SPY is right at 50 & 20 day MA resistance.
If big money wants to play here, they'll let it go up another 2-4%. Then let it fall.
Even while going down more - it may not be straight down.
Several stocks in my account show green trades, the rest are zeroed out. I assume it's leftover from Friday night.
----
Next up is bankruptcies.
FG has some numbers. 28million small businesses. About 2million loans of average sie $206k. Many loans not going to small, small businesses.
The difference from 2008 is that the world didn't know if the recession would end. Now there's strong assumption it will. Just a matter of time.
The news last Friday and over the weekend suggests an increasingly likelihood that the Trump Administration will levy punitive economic sanctions on China. Harsh accusations were made by Trump and his lap dog Pompous Pompeo. Both have gone so far as to claim that COVID-19 was created in a Wuhan lab and China deliberately withheld information that resulted in the deaths of Americans.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnn.com/2020/05/03/politics/mike-pompeo-china-coronavirus-supplies/index.html
I will discuss some of those claims in my next post.
For investors, the concern now is that economic tensions with China will restart soon with new sanctions.
I mentioned in an earlier comment that the renewed threat made by Trump last Friday was the primary cause for the market's slide.
The S & P 500 stock futures are currently down around 1.5%.
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract
2,779.00 -42.70 -1.51%
Last Updated: May 3, 2020 at 7:01 p.m. CDT
I spent the day reading The End of October, which, like the movie Contagion, has some prescient observations about the current pandemic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/books/review/lawrence-wright-end-of-october.html
The author is very good with details, but is not much of a fiction writer when it comes to plot and character development.
I forgot about the tariffs. I'd mentioned it too on Friday, Trump bites his nose. That ruins my thought that the market may climb 2-4% before reversing. News beats all. Really dumb news really beats all.
DeleteI wonder about my sources. For instance, MSNBC didn't talk about it very much on Friday. I haven't had the news on all weekend. So he's not just floating this as a test.
I had thoughts that someone might take advantage of the moment to start a war. I didn't think of the USA president as doing it.
---
I read article links here. One was:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/nasdaq-100-flashes-a-warning-signal-analyst-matt-maley-says.html
"“Just recently the QQQ saw what’s called an outside-down day, and that’s when you get a higher high than the previous day’s high, a lower low than the previous day’s low, and a close below the previous day’s low,” he said Wednesday. “That may seem like something that may happen often but actually it doesn’t and it usually shows a sign of exhaustion.”"
That's the opposite of capitulation! May not happen at every top. But worth putting on my list of technicals.
----
Does this one mean anything? I have no idea what he's saying, but it sounds intriguing.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expert-who-called-the-2008-crisis-says-the-signal-to-sell-stocks-is-coming-soon-2020-04-27
“You see the biggest problem the world faces is the dollar. We are in a vicious doom loop where slowing growth causes the dollar to rise, which causes slower growth, which causes the dollar to rise, as all borrowers play musical chairs to get access to the dollar to service debts."
"“My guess is that the next debt deflation signal will come when bonds begin to price in negative interest rates. That day is coming soon... and that will be the signal to sell equities and the insolvency phase will begin.”
----
I look forward to hearing any bits from the book that add insights to the situation.
There was a game developed right before the towers were hit - that involved planes flying into towers. A few other things, books or stories came out too. There's a way in which an idea's time has come, and it springs up in multiple places. He must have been paying a lot of attention & been a good researcher.
Too bad the storyline isn't additive.
Land: I do not believe that the Stock Jocks have revised their blue skies scenario, but have only become less enthused about placing bets on it with SPX near 2800 compared to 2200.
DeleteEverything that Trump does or say between now and the election has only one objective-winning reelection.
Donald knows that restarting a trade war with China now would aggravate the current recession. That makes it less likely that he will do anything meaningful to punish China, notwithstanding the tough rhetoric. So my thinking is that he will do something but not enough to fundamentally alter the current trade truce and agreements.
His rhetoric may, however, box him into a more serious response. Donald is saying that China caused the deaths of several thousand Americans. It will be difficult to maintain that narrative and refrain from taking significant punitive actions.
Trump has also made the decision IMO that his reelection will require premature business reopenings and at least 50K more American deaths.
This strategy may work politically among a majority of voters, particularly those who are facings severe financial stress now.
The problems with his political strategy are the possible significantly higher death toll (assuming voters tie that directly to his reopening push) and/or a second wave of infections that starts in September or October. The second wave of the Spanish Flu was more devastating than the first.
https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence
Doctor Don has been downplaying this possibility.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/22/coronavirus-dr-anthony-fauci-says-i-am-convinced-second-wave/3009131001/
A storm passed through Nashville that knocked out my power for 8 hours, which raised a question about the food in my refrigerator.
ReplyDeleteThe CDC claims that a refrigerator will keep food safe for 4 hours, provided the door is not opened.
A freezer will keep food safe for 48 hours if full and 24 hours if half full.
https://www.cdc.gov/foodsafety/food-safety-during-a-power-outage.html
In the freezer, I keep some dry ice in an open container.
So I threw out this morning all of the perishables in the refrigerator including milk, yogurt and cheese, heeding the CDC's advice that it is better to be safe than sorry.
Another government website had information about particular food items:
https://www.foodsafety.gov/food-safety-charts/food-safety-during-power-outage
Most of the keep and discard recommendations were tied however to the refrigerator's inside temperature which I could not check without opening the door and were consequently not that helpful.
I'm surprised it's only 4 hours, at least with energy star newer frigs. Frustrating when having to throw out food.
DeleteLand: As with investments, it about the balancing and assessing risks. The risk of becoming sick by eating tainted food or milk is not worth avoiding a $50 to $100 cost to replace the food.
DeleteNow, if I had $1000 at risk in spoiled food, which I do not, I would take precautionary measures including the purchase of a medium sized freezer that would continuously hold at least one large bag of ice and several bars of frozen blue ice. When a power outage reached two hours, I would place the bag of ice in the refrigerator, keeping the blue ice in the freezer.
That's a good way to put the calculation. I kept getting pantry moths. Then mice. Apparently even after you disappear them, the smell seems inviting to future mouse explorers.
DeleteA few years back, I plotted and planned. Namely I found some sealed water tight plastic containers (Target - reasonably priced but poor sizes for a pantry). Now my susceptible food sits in big containers.
Last round (or two) of mice and they moved out, out of boredom. Or maybe the new neighborhood stray cats took care of them? What mattered though - my food wasn't chewed into. No straw & paper nests were behind things.
What made me think of that was that it was adding up in costs - so it was motivating.
I would have expected items to last more than 4 hours. That comes as news.
What do you think of Warren Buffett's comments this weekend?
ReplyDeletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-subtle-tone-shift-investors-must-note-morning-brief-101719508.html
A few attendees in comments section, and article perceived him as very cautious, waiting for value rather than seeing it here. ...to an unusual extent.
----
I realized the tariff worries aren't going to do that much to the market. Basically on tariffs the market will assume Trump won't do enough to get into, because he didn't last time. That's why it wasn't sticking in my head.
There's the blue sky energy that's not going down right now. It's won't until the openings don't work. So market will interpret all in a positive light.
There's usually multiple shoes in a crisis. That's what's unclear here & will make a difference IF some show up.
----
In looking at comments to articles, I've noticed that the usual doom and gloomers, buy a bunker, gold and guns, are gone. Even folks I've read it from before, aren't saying it now.
They're cautious. But the sky is falling comments are missing from the usual sky is falling crowd. Maybe now that the sky fell, they don't feel need to point it out. But I don't know what to think that all the bunker buyers aren't talking about need to wait to jump in any more.
Land: I would agree with Buffett's caution and the discussion gets back to a point that I made earlier. I am naturally, however, a cautious and conservative person.
Delete{I only sound liberal to the Trumpsters who are not conservatives}
The long term value of a company is not determined by short term events, external to the company, that negatively impact earnings for a few quarters, provided no permanent damage is caused and the company survives of course. That is what Buffett is saying.
What will damage the prospects longer term are issues directly related to a specific company, including such matters as a failure to innovate or adapt and too much debt to weather the inevitable down periods.
Over short periods, valuations and external events that meaningfully impact earnings will cause volatility with a downside bias.
I would not be backing up the truck now.
I did reallocate slightly over $100K to new stock and stock fund purchases during March. I was not scared but worried which probably restrained the buying by $50K or so. I am still worried. I was a net seller of stocks last month and that has carried over into March.
Many of the sectors that were hardest hit during March rallied some in April but are starting to turn back down, including regional banks and BDCs and are falling more than the major market indexes that are declining.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
$35.47 -$0.855 -$2.35%
Last Updated: May 4, 2020 at 1:07 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
Most of the market's oomph is concentrated in a few names, primarily the QQQ type companies.
The NYT claims in an article this morning that the Trump Administration is privately forecasting an acceleration of deaths and infections this month tied to the reopenings. I have linked the article as republished at MSN which does not require a NYT subscription.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/coronavirus-live-updates-trump-administration-models-predict-near-doubling-of-daily-death-toll-by-june/ar-BB13zfhE?li=BBnb7Kz
Most Americans are not likely to start wearing masks or to maintain social distancing. A few states that required customers to wear masks in grocery stores had to repeal that requirement due to customers threatening grocery workers with physical violence who were trying to enforce the policy. So it would be fair to assume IMO a rapid acceleration of infections and deaths in the coming weeks.
I suspect the Stock Jocks accept that prediction, but believe that the acceleration will not prevent new stay-at-home orders, except possibly for mass gatherings like sporting events and concerts.
The next major test for the Stock Jocks' blue sky scenario will come in the fall when the virus returns. If the return has a mutation that makes it far more deadly, which was the case for the Spanish Flu, then anyone buying now at current levels will likely live (or not live) to regret that decision.
Based on what I am seeing now, the ETF QQQ is performing better than other stock ETFs.
The YTD total return for QQQ as of last Friday's close was at least positive at +.27%:
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/qqq/performance
SPY was at -11.6%:
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spy/quote
IWM was at -24.18%:
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/iwm/quote
Compared to me you're more conservative. So to a Trumpster I sound like??? Though I'm a moderate middle of the road, independent, both sides have good (correction: had) good ideas sort.
DeleteSo far the market's rallied. Nothing is deterring it, as things "open" up. (I hear Florida's already shutting one of the beaches back down for lack of mask-wearing.) Trump speak wasn't doing it.
Question is whether this last push was it.
I'm ready to believe that the economy for solid companies in the right areas is going to go well any day now, and I should just buy in. I didn't buy. But maybe the rally's starting to exhaust itself if it's starting to sell itself as convincing.
My gut says we'll see deep down some more. But when I read and use logic, and see the "buy the dip" conviction, and rotations into cyclicals out of the FAANGs with wide breath ... using the logic that, current earnings glitches for a couple months, don't matter, means that in year these prices now will reflect earnings in a year. And so it's time to buy.
Except, stock prices aren't a bargain here. They weren't really bargains at the bottom either, for most sectors, just fair value.
If the next test for blue skies isn't until the fall, this market will have skyrocketed by then. Goodness.
There are vaccines going into testing now. Pfizer and BIIB's. So could be good news in just a couple months. Even though production will take more months, the news will be a trigger, if one is found effective and safe.
Yep... mutations are a risk. There's something about a new version that's worse already.
Buffett's practicing patience until there's a clearer view. It certainly is a muddled view here.
If I needed to preserve, I'd definitely wait. Since I need growth, it's a little harder to figure - since FOMO matters too.
---
I did added quite a bit since the crisis started. Maybe had 1/2 money already invested and added another 1/6th. Most of it though higher in the dip. Only about $11k after it got deeper. Disappointed to realize that. Still have lots of powder to find a home for.
At the moment futures are a little red.
There was a downturn around 3pm. I was busy at the time and didn't hear any news triggering it. Unless it was Trump's winding down the task force. Or maybe Clarida's comments that I haven't heard yet. The short time I had CNBC on, they didn't mention it.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-clings-to-gains-as-wall-street-eyes-easing-of-lockdowns-2020-05-05
I sold my PFE afterhours when it hit 38.80. After that it rose to 39.18. Uncertain decision. 1% div in a day. It's struggled to get back to this price (6% profit on original purchase), even before the crisis. It'd bug me to lose this window. Chart says maybe another 2-3% up. Estimate on market watch was around the same.
Forgot for the 3pm downturn mystery (to me still), maybe is the whistle blower. That was released mid-day.
DeleteLand: It is not possible IMO for a genuine conservative to support a lying demagogue with strong authoritarian tendencies and a disregard for fundamental conservative principles embodied in the Constitution and the institutions necessary for a properly functioning democracy.
DeleteI also believe that it more likely than not that he is a sociopath.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-sociopath-mental-health-harvard-psychiatry-professor-1468441
Trump is without question a malignant narcissist.
++
The whistleblower complaint filed by Dr. Bright was expected. Republicans only care about the charges made in the very lengthly complaint when made against a democrat. I was not expecting Dr. Bright to claim that the Trump Administration steered contracts to political cronies. That is new.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/virus-whistle-blower-says-trump-administration-steered-contracts-to-cronies/ar-BB13Ecvr?li=BBnb7Kz
+++
The momentum in the stock market is still currently to the upside.
Negative news items about the U.S. economy, corporate earnings and widespread dividend cuts or elimination are viewed as temporary.
The blue sky scenario is still the consensus opinion after this temporary aberration.
It is important to identify the assumptions that are part of that consensus opinion.
The two most significant are (1) the pandemic will not interrupt a reopening in early summer or cause another shutdown in the fall and (2) everything will be back to normal soon with consumers spending freely to support economic growth. I would not assign a high probability to both of those assumptions occurring in the time frame currently predicted by the Stock Jocks. I have serious questions and concerns that the blue sky scenario is even probable (greater than 50%).
I still own my 6 shares of Pfizer. I did throw caution to the wind with a 2 share buy of QQQ. I am primarily a bond investor now. My stock allocation is so low that it does not matter much, meaning every position could go to zero and at worst it would hurt a little for awhile.
Have you come across the Lincoln Project? (As a side note, that's a good use of Lincoln's image. Compared to "whatever that was" the a couple of days ago.)
DeleteI'm on their mailing list, aka request for money list:
https://lincolnproject.us/
I've been writing that Trump's a sociopath since before he was elected. I was sticking out like a sore thumb then. He has made me feel much more comfortable in my assessment since then. It's been good to see professionals writing up their assessments.
I wasn't expecting a whistle blower report. Nice move. The cronyism took me by surprise (well sort of considering this admin.) The rest was in line with what we've seen happening.
""(1) the pandemic will not interrupt a reopening in early summer or cause another shutdown in the fall and (2) everything will be back to normal soon with consumers spending freely to support economic growth.""
That's a good breakdown.
I just can't decide whether reality will be negative enough to change those assumptions. Especially with vaccines in testing.
My sense now is that the market is trying to figure out a way to go down. Big $ isn't chasing here. So it has less room to go up.
But what a struggle to go down even a little bit.
If this is retail money, that's important news. I didn't think retail was big enough % to move or keep the market this much afloat.
PFE - tempting to buy back for the 1% (per quarter) div. Really interesting to see I wasn't burned yet by selling. For a vaccine in testing not to get more buy-up, also points to it being an inflection point for a small pullback in overall market (or more than small, but I'll not assume more yet.)
I read what I think is a hard sell false stock lead site. But it had one good point. Tech is disrupting now we do business. Focusing on companies in their respective fields, that are leading with tech such as in manufacturing, personnel, supply chain, or whatever it is... is a good focus (over companies that aren't.)
You are in bonds because of capital preservation. Is that the primary or nearly only reason that you have few stocks? Or is the primary reason for lack of stocks, because of market conditions?
I've read that 70% of investors in market are republicans. If so, that's a factor that would add to the blue sky's conviction.
DeleteI don't see that kind of excitement in seeking alpha comments.
As I'd posted previously, oddly the usual sky-is-falling bears don't seem to be posting about their bunkers either.
Land: The perma bear crowd had their moments in March and during the 2018 4th quarter. I suspect their time will come again before year end.
DeleteMy best guess would be during the August to October time frame.
August will be when most of the disastrous second quarter earnings reports are released, and investors will start to have a clearer picture in early Fall whether or not the robust second half recovery will occur.
My more likely than not scenario is that the second half recovery will be muted without a second wave of coronavirus infections. Consumers will be shell shocked and reluctant to spend. A second wave of Covid-19 infections that is worse than the current one would likely continue the recessionary conditions. The Stock Jocks are dismissing that possibility, assigning it a zero percent chance which is not rational IMO.
The EU predicted today a -7.4% GDP decline this year which is down from its February estimate of +1.4%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/coronavirus-european-union-to-contract-7point5percent-due-to-the-pandemic.html
Trump is doing what he can to raise money for the Lincoln Project.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/lincoln-project-has-biggest-day-of-fundraising-after-trump-attacks-group.html
""Trump is doing what he can to raise money for the Lincoln Project.
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/lincoln-project-has-biggest-day-of-fundraising-after-trump-attacks-group.html""
Goodie. So then a nice cycle will happen. He advertises them in anger. They get money, pay for ads, he advertises them in anger....
Land: I am almost entirely in bonds, CDs, treasury bills and cash, with the CDs and treasury bills running off into cash since I will not buy them at current interest rates. Taking into account my age, the reason is capital preservation with some income generation and capital gains potential based on trading.
ReplyDeleteTaking into account my age, expected lifespan, and overall financial condition, I do not need to own stocks. I will move the allocation up and down based on valuations and my assessment of the risk/reward balance. The balance shifted toward reward when the market crashed last month and has now IMO shifted more toward risk of a capital loss for new investments now.
During the March decline, and without actually do the number crunching, my allocation to stocks increased from around 5% to 7% of investable assets held in brokerage accounts. I started back into a net selling mode in late April which is continuing this month.
My recent buys have been in the sectors that are working now, and that would be QQQ and some funds that invest in those type of stocks. The dollar amounts are so far meaningless however.
An example of an ETF that is working is SKYY:
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY)
63.58+1.42 (+2.29%)
As of 1:42PM EDT.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SKYY?p=SKYY
Sponsor's page:
https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/etf/etfsummary.aspx?Ticker=SKYY
That one owns several large companies, like Amazon and Microsoft, that have diverse businesses including cloud computing.
A more pure cloud computing ETF is CLOU.
Global X Cloud Computing ETF
$17.98 +$0.55 +3.16%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/clou
I own that one.
Another more pure cloud computing ETF is the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD).
Sponsor's website:
https://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/thematic/wcld
Land: I have heard of the Lincoln Project who are Never Trumpster republicans. Trump refers to them as RINOs (republican in name only).
DeleteI referred to them in my 4/18/20 post. They will probably vote for Biden. They are an insignificant number within the GOP.
Over 90% of republicans support Trump. The latest Gallup Poll showed him at a 94% approval among republicans.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/284156/trump-job-approval-personal-best.aspx
Their ads really make Donald angry.
He went into a rant earlier this week about them after viewing their latest ad called "Mourning in America":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_yG_-K2MDo
Haven't heard of those ETFs. They're look promising. It's a high growth area.
DeleteSecurity would be a great idea too, but the better companies were private when I looked a few years ago.
I was looking up lithium the other day. The EFTs I came across were in big name companies that are only partly involved in minerals. I want more focused companies. I haven't gone through those names yet.
I was making watch / learn about lists last night. I hadn't realized how nice some of the drug stock divs are. Abbv 5.5% SNY 3.3%.
Don't know if they're div growth at all. Hard to get into - they keep climbing.
Notable that Gilead is down today. So is REGN. Is there some thought happening that "we're opening up, going back to life, so these drugs don't matter as much any more?" Maybe it's just more stock-specific factors. But I wouldn't be completely surprised to hear that logic.
Walmart's down (is bullish) but Nasdaq's up, i.e. narrow breath today.
A thought. Stocks that benefit from covid go up. (Papajohns now on CNBC). And deserve prices as effective by covid environment.
DeleteStocks that are hit by the covid ignore covid environment and deserve post-covid prices.
There's little indication that benefiting companies are going to sell back down into the rallies. There was a little rotation out of FAANG for two was all.
I'm not sure how clear my thought is written.
DeleteI've noticed that stocks that benefit from the covid environment go up in price and valuation. (Grocery stores, Netflix etc.)
At the same time the market is ignoring the covid environment and saying stocks are worth their post-covid value.
So investors are "playing it both ways." Where the environment is helping a stock, it's a good buy. Where the environment is harmful, it's still a good buy because the covid environment will end soon enough.
That is such a "heads I win, tails you lose" view.
They won't change any Trumpers. Trump shooting one of them on 5th Ave wouldn't change others witnessing it.
ReplyDeleteBut maybe their ads will push a few independents.
I don't rule out 4 more years of him. It will take hard work and everything pushing to get him out. Get something resembling normal back again.
I wonder - how you know / remember when you posted on something? I can't always even remember what I was going to write into a post, as I'm writing it.
3pm dive today. No mention of a reason in news blurbs or msnbc. So that answers what it's about. Simple technicals or preference to go lower.
ReplyDeleteWill the pullback win? Will it not?
Lots of earnings today. ....wheeeeeee.... goes the ride.
Land: MMM declined .83% vs. the S & P 500 at -.7% and the DJIA at -.91%
DeleteThe MMM decline in context does not send any message.
There are a lot of companies manufacturing protective gear now, including the N95 mask that gave MMM some juice last quarter.
While BDC dividend cuts will be fairly common this year, the BDC CGBD rose today when it declared its $.37 per share regular quarterly dividend when announcing its first quarter results.
ReplyDeleteTCG BDC Inc. (CGBD)
$8.22 +$0.80 +10.78%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cgbd
I own a few shares. The rise today lowered my unrealized loss. The net asset value per share took a hit, going from $16.56 as of 12/31/19 to $14.18. "This was primarily driven by higher market spreads related to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as other changes in other inputs utilized under our valuation methodology, including, but not limited to, enterprise value multiples, leverage multiples and borrower ratings, and the impact of exits."
Earnings Press Release:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/05/05/2027859/0/en/TCG-BDC-Inc-Announces-First-Quarter-2020-Financial-Results-and-Declares-Second-Quarter-2020-Dividend-of-0-37-Per-Share.html
CGBD has recently paid special dividends in addition to the $.37 per share regular dividend.
Ares Capital has moved up some in price after reporting results and declaring its $.40 per share regular dividend.
Ares Capital
$13.20 +0.50 +3.94%
After the close, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) reported results. TPVG closed at $7.47, up 6.56% in regular trading.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tpvg
TPVG declared its regular quarterly dividend of $.36 per share.
NII per share was reported at $.41.
Earnings Release:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200506006068/en/TriplePoint-Venture-Growth-BDC-Corp.-Announces-Quarter
Net asset value per share declined to $12.85 from $13.34 as of 12/31/19.
With BDCs, it is impossible to know how much of the NAV per share declines last quarter are temporary or permanent, or are just the start of a loan(s) going bad.
This is going to be a tough year for BDCs. Some may come out of the trough stronger, having secured better terms on new loans. Others will see permanent net asset value per share declines and dividend cuts.
I also own a few shares of FS KKR which reported after the close. SA says it beat on NII by $.12 per share.
NII was reported at $.19, compared to $0.18 per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2019
Press Release:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fsk-announces-first-quarter-2020-results-250-million-unsecured-notes-issuance-amendment-of-senior-secured-revolving-credit-facility-and-declares-distribution-for-second-quarter-301054240.html
"Net asset value of $6.09 per share, compared to $7.64 per share as of December 31, 2019"
FSK did cut the regular dividend to $.15 from $.19.
"On April 13, 2020, FSK completed its previously announced $200 million share repurchase program. During the period from January 1 to March 31, 2020, FSK repurchased 8.9 million shares at an average price of $4.45 per share. During the period from April 1 to April 13, 2020, FSK repurchased 2.3 million shares at an average price of $3.16 per share."
On April 30, 2020, FSK sold $250 million of 8.625% SU bonds maturing in 2025. That indicates financial stress consistent with a deep into junk bond rating, though the bond was rated Baa3 by Moody's and BBB- by Fitch.
I have bought and sold the FS KKR 2024 SU bond and then bought 2 of its 4.75% 2022 bonds that closed today at 97.46.
http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C629857&symbol=FSIC4239224
I have not discussed those trades yet. The 2024 bond was owned for 7 days, bought at a TC of 84.373 and sold at 88.5.
Regarding CGBD, BDC Buzz published an article discussed that BDC which is not yet behind the SA paywall:
Deletehttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4341121-tcg-why-i-bought-carlyle-groups-bdc-currently-yielding-21
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Longer term interest rates rose today.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
$163.41 -$2.68 -1.61%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tlt
The treasury will be selling $3 trillion in debt during the second quarter. Money has to be raised to fund the Covid-19 related stimulus packages. That may pressure longer term rates some, but I would not hazard a guess with the FED buying treasuries with no limit on the amounts.
The FED is back over $5.5 trillion in owned treasuries and mortgage backed securities.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma/sysopen_accholdings.html
Last Friday, the CEF NBB, which owns long duration Build America Bonds, closed at a .7% discount to its net asset value per share.
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/NBB
With the decline in those bonds today, I suspect that the closing price was higher than the net asset value per share.
I will not own leveraged bond funds when the price exceeds the net asset value per share, so I sold all of my recently bought NBB shares today.
NBB closed up 1.81%:
Nuveen Taxable Municipal Income Fund
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/nbb
There is an ETF that owns these bonds which closed down 1.04%:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/bab
I frequently trade this CEF. I will wait for another opportunity to buy back some shares.
My last string of purchases were discussed here:
Item # 2 B. Restarted NBB-Bought 20 at $19.4; 5 at $18.5; 5 at $17.74; 5 at $16.67:
April 11, 2020
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/04/bdnchn-fhn-gdo-good-maptx-mcdfx-mspra.html
:) that wasn't a typo. I meant 3 p.m. . Yesterday there was a decline at 3 p.m., and today. Traders and big money in the bullpens have said they make decisions to finish up their day and more permanent overnight objectives and enact around 3 p.m.
ReplyDelete2 end of day dips, say that it wasn't yesterday's news that triggered yesterday's 3 p.m.
I hadn't paid attention to 3M. It hasn't been moving in very big directions. Unfortunately my 3M is well under water.
LOL, I've done so many typos that it looked like a typo.
I'm trying to clean up my open tabs. I open them so much faster than I can read them.
ReplyDeleteIn this article on Gilead's drug, it discusses the two studies released the other day. Then on a 3rd study is this comment from Dr. Eric Topol:
""Results from a third study in China suggesting remdesivir failed to help COVID-19 patients were released in the British medical journal the Lancet after review by a peer group of scientists. "That's the only thing I'll hang my hat on, and that was negative," said Dr. Eric Topol, director and founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California. He was unimpressed by remdesivir’s modest benefit.
"It was expected to be a whopping effect," Topol added. "It clearly does not have that.""
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fauci-says-leak-concerns-fueled-his-white-house-revelation-of-gilead-drug-results/ar-BB13p19Q?ocid=spartanntp
Gilead is trying to get a partnership that can produce the drug. I think also is in an acquisition (fuzzy on that). So maybe it's price movements are company specific and not related to investors' view of the sector.
Iron Mountain Inc. (IRM)
ReplyDelete$25.17 +$3.14 +14.34%
Last Updated: May 7, 2020 at 10:09 a.m. EDT
I discuss some small ball IRM adds in this post. Since publication, I bought 5 more.
The pop today is due to what investors perceive as a better than expected earnings report.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/iron-mountain-reports-first-quarter-2020-results-301054466.html
"Normalized FFO" was reported at $.59 per share vs. the consensus estimate of $.49.
The Board also declared the regular quarterly dividend of $0.6185 per share which is higher than its calculation of FFO.
The Normalized FFO calculation has a lot of noise including adding back $41.046 in restructuring charges to FFO.
Based on historical prices over the past 5 year, IRM's stock remains depressed even after today's pop.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/irm/charts
I really need to start thinking like the market, and chasing here. (But with eye to sell easily when needed.)
ReplyDeleteMy individual stocks are not back to the recent highs.
Indices aren't either, but are closer to it.
Still not high enough to get out of the stocks I bought when I thought it was a buy the dip early on.
Market is back to climbing a wall of worry based on don't fight the Fed.
Land: I started to look into MMM this afternoon. The shares were clearly overvalued when the shares closed at $258.63 on 1/21/2018.
DeleteI was looking through the last 10-Q and noted a very long discussion of environmental cases against the company, something that is material for MMM based on my review this afternoon.
The lengthly discussion of environmental issues starts at page 33.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/66740/000155837020004478/mmm-20200428x10q.htm
My cursory analysis is that most important issue involves water contamination though various perfluorinated compounds, including perfluorooctanoate (“PFOA”), perfluorooctane sulfonate (“PFOS”), perfluorohexane sulfonate (“PFHxS”), or other per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (collectively “PFAS”)". This particular compound is found does not break down easily and can be found in water supplies in certain geographic areas highlighted in the MMM 10-Q summary. The PFAS product is not longer manufactured but was used by MMM starting in the 1940s in everyday products like non-stick frying pans and fire retardant materials.
I was struck by one MMM settlement where it set aside $897M to settle a PFAS contamination case in Minnesota. (page 36). That settlement occurred in February 2018 around the time MMM started its downward spiral.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/66740/000110465918010779/a18-6513_1ex99.htm
There are still a number of outstanding environmental claims in various stages of litigation. MMM's discussion of those claims indicate to me that the company is dragging out settlements through litigation, spacing out future settlements over time rather than taking a one time earnings hit to wrap most of them up in a single year.
No matter how much an individual researches this kind of issue, it is impossible to get a handle on how much these environmental claims will ultimately cost. I would assume based on the price action since February 2018 that investors are factoring in hits now, but were surprised by the magnitude of the January 2018 settlement with Minnesota.
I am still looking into the stock. With this kind of uncertainty, I would probably just start a small ball buy program with a 1 share buy and then average down but not up. There are a number of pluses which at least perked my interest.
Based on what I have digested so far, I would not pay more than $150 for the stock. So that would be my cap. Morningstar has a $170 FV estimate. S & P has a $177 12 month price target. I would view $170 to $180 to be a sell range based on my look see so far.
On MMM - that's really interesting.
DeleteI bought at $205. During that 2018 dip. Doesn't look like I'll get my money back. Probably will need to take the loss and move it to something better. I have 10 shares. It was a 1st buy in & I never bought more.
That's a lot of bad management, that let all of those chemical issues pollute and create risk for the company.
Wrapping up the litigation in a single year would be much better for the stock. They must be afraid it will be both high amounts, and trigger more if they aren't fighting them.
There's pluses to the stock?
4% div is nice. There's debt, and payout ratio is 67%. Long term chart, there's support at 140 that looks like held recently too, but there's lots more room to go down below 100.
Wonder if there'll be efforts to correct that will work, such as changing key management? (Whether or not it changes anything, it can make the market happier.)
It's such a large and conglomerate company, that individual strong products, or a shift to mask production, and such, isn't a useful way to assess the company.
Well I wasn't paying attention for a while - and this didn't do well for it.
So tired today - barely noticed the market so excited over a huge jobless claims number. Hopefully I have now napped enough to focus on buying into this crazy market.
ReplyDeleteI put off buying today with the excuse that the weekend is coming. If the mood is similar on Monday, I am going to start buying.
I will hold my nose. Think it's crazy. But I'm not going to get left out of the herd behavior just because it seems irrational. Waiting for sensibility is how I wound up with so much cash not invested & missing out for several years.
I will of course put in some stops,& buy in increments. Mostly indices. Individuals, only as I find good solid ones. Keep an eye out for the start of draw downs for any worrisome reason, and get out quickly.
How's that for a pep talk to myself?
----
Jim Swift on CNBC's Market in Turmoil reported on company recent spending changes to look for green shoots. It appears there are increases in spending. What I wanted to know is consumer spending, but it didn't cover that.
NJ is up 35% over last month in restaurant businesses buying into supplies. Georgia was up 20%. They were unable to explain the 35%. I suspect it's all the NY employees staying home in NJ, buying take home.
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My focus last couple days has been to find highest rate deposit account possible, open a schwab account, and some of those high yield reward accounts.
On the schwab - did you know they're buying out ameritrade? I'm not thrilled. I don't like my setups disappearing on me. Statements don't port over. Hopefully I'll be comfortable at schwab before then.
Highest deposit account I've found is First Foundation 1.75%.
https://www.firstfoundationinc.com/digital-bank-frequently-asked-questions
There's Fitness Bank at the same rate, but I'm not tethering a step monitor to me. I don't walk 2 miles a day on average, I don't think. But being reminded of my bank account all the time??
Vanguard had been competitive for a while. Now it's listing for Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX), .38% with an .11% expense fee.
Do you have a sense of how much needs to be earned to break even for inflation? Then tax on earnings needs to be deducted too. It'd be good to know how much I'm losing on this money at 1.75%. I will wish I'd bought bonds when the buying was good.
I use a couple high yield accounts that pay 3% on total $45k by using the debit card for buys during the month. There isn't much that's better out there.
There's one that pays 3% for 12 debits on 35k, but requires signing a mission statement on their evangelical beliefs and the church you attend. That's the first time I've seen any religious group make their banking exclusive to them, in that way.
https://www.eccu.org/personalbanking/kasasa-cash
On a more positive note, one can earn a 10% interest on up to $10k if an active military service member.
https://servicecu.org/bank/savings-accounts/military-savings/
My individual stocks are not back to the recent highs. But indices are. So they are climbing on other stocks than I own.
ReplyDeleteGilead is still down from the pop. PFE was green but not back to it's pop.
PayC - paycom is really rallying. Beyond Meat is too even though it costs more than beef.
My 7 shares of TXN Texas Instruments sold out this morning at $115.35 on an order. Nice to wake up to (I think.)
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLand: My view is that almost all negative political ads are false or misleading.
DeleteDonald's campaign ads will be consistent with his long history of deception.
During election season, it is best to keep the remote handy so that the channel can be changed quickly whenever any campaign ad comes on.
They are effective only because tens of millions are willfully ignorant. And, Donald knows better than George Conway how to push their buttons.
++
Maybe if the economy had shed 30.5M jobs last month rather than 20.5M, the DJIA could have gained another 1000 points today.
For several sectors and the large cap names that power the QQQ, DJIA and SPX, bad economic and corporate news is obviously not derailing the uptrends in those indexes.
My total portfolio value is about where it was in mid-February now, but I own a variety of stocks, including regional banks and BDCs, that are still struggling with unrealized losses.
The belief which is reflected in stocks that are working now is that the disastrous 2nd quarter will be temporary, the coronavirus will cooperate with the reopening of businesses and consumers will start to spend like there is no tomorrow, starting in a few weeks.
Since the foundation is based on something happening in the future, it can not be torn down by present information inconsistent with the blue sky scenario. I can not challenge a belief that something will happen in six months with current facts.
Part of my more recent response to this persistent uptrend is to engage in hyper trading.
Most of those trades will not be discussed since there are too many of them. I generally clear out many of them before the weekend. I am selling some losers to offset some of those short term capital gains.
Some of the trading is just small ball, where I sell my highest cost lots into price strength after having averaged down.
I am very skeptical that households will become free spenders this year.
One lesson that has been taught is the necessity of having a cushion for unexpected job loss. Spending needs to be curtailed until that cushion is built up and then left alone. Some households will see that light while others are too shellshocked to spend much, waiting to see if another shoe drops.
Households need to have sufficient funds set aside to pay all expenses for at least 6 months, preferably for 12 months, with no paychecks.
I thought about buying my 1 share of MMM today, but want a lower price to start my "small ball buying program".
Thanks for the laughs. The mute on my remote is worn out. Today I realized some of the news where I'm vague or can't seem to follow it, is that I'm listening with pockets of muting - and not getting it back on fast enough to catch key words. Such as what the topic is.
DeleteHyper trading... not sure what that looks like. I've sold a bit. Then stopped doing anything, except starting to organize watchlists.
If I buy into a gain, and get stopped out by an order, I am no worse off than now. The lack of fees makes a huge difference to get used to.
I don't think it matters whether customers become free spenders. It matters only that the market thinks that inside 2 years they'll be rewarded with a strong economy again.
Quite interesting. The euphoric phase of a bull is on. Bubbles and all. It doesn't matter that reality changed. Maybe that phase is timed or based on something that's not been identified. Because nothing it's usually attributed it, is true now, yet here it is.
1 share of MMM...when the time is right! I'm down $566.
I'd like some overbought trending stocks. I'd like some deep value such as REITS or ?. I don't have a sense of timing on those.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/05/fieca-mfc-mnrprc-sca-scm-pba-pwcdf-scm.html