AMCR, BZH, CLX, GLQ, IDE, MATV, MBINP, MBWM, MDLZ, NWBI, NVS, ONB, OLP, PNNT, RTL, TECB, THQ, USB, WSBCP

Economy:

BLS April Jobs Report: Stronger than expected

+253,000 jobs added vs 180,000 consensus

3.4% unemployment vs 3.6% consensus 

Annual Increase Average Hourly Wages at 4.4% vs. 4.2% consensus

Employment Situation Summary - 2023 M04 Results

The U-6 number was reported at 6.6%, down from 6.7% in March. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization - 2023 M04 Results 

However, the previously reported total job gains of 542,000 for February and March were revised down a combined 149,000. 

In Thousands 

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Unemployment Rate Chart: 

Unemployment Rate-St. Louis Fed

Wage Growth Tracker - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

ADP reported that the private sector added 296,000 jobs in April.  ADP® Employment Report

US could default on its debt as soon as June 1 if Congress doesn't act, Yellen says

First Republic: JPMorgan Chase to buy most First Republic assets after bank fails FRC is the second largest bank failure in U.S. history. The third was Silicon Valley Bank with Signature Bank currently holding the 4th spot. The 3 mid size bank failures so far this year resulted from deposit runs.  

10 Year Treasury Yield: 

As of 3/2/23: 4.08%

As of 5/5/23: 3.44%

Resource Center | U.S. Department of the Treasury

Most of that slide is attributable IMO to the regional bank turmoil. The belief is that the 3 mid size bank failures due to deposit runs will cause more credit tightening that will contribute to a recession starting later this year. 

The Bond Ghouls prediction about the year end federal funds range would require IMO a recession to be realized: 

CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group As shown in that table, the probability that the FF rate will be at least .75% lower than now by year end is at 72.4% and at 96.8% for .5% lower. 

Cost of Insuring Against US Debt Default Hits Record High Amid Stalemate (5/4/23); United States 5 Years Credit Default Swaps - Historical Data; Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011 | Reuters (4/20/23); Markets are starting to get worried about US debt default (4/20/23)

+++

Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post: 

Corporate Bonds: $9,000

CDs: $11,000

CD and corporate bond purchases were funded with proceeds from maturing T Bills. I did not buy any treasuries last week. 

Net Outflow Common Stocks: -$1423.26

(consisting of $2,316.38 in proceeds minus $893.12 in purchases )

Weighted Average Yield Common Stock Purchases: 7.9%

(the current goal is to add stocks each week with a weighted average yield in excess of 5%)

Stock CEFs = $170.1  (Weighted Yield at 8.77%)

Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$1,253.16 

Realized Gain Stocks/Stock Funds: +$345.45 (mostly from 10 NVS shares)

Bank Holding Company Equity Preferred: $422.25 (Weighted yield at 8.38%, two equity preferred stocks: WSBCP & MBINP)

I will be discussing other bank preferred stock purchases made last week in my next post. The downside risk for a bank holding company preferred stock is a zero price, a total wipe out in value,  when and if its operating bank is seized by the FDIC. The concerns primarily involve uninsured deposit withdrawals, increases in bad loans resulting from a recession, problematic office property loans, and unrealized losses in owned securities.  

A few bank holding fixed-to-floating rate preferred stocks are in their floating rate periods. I started a position in one of those, buying 5 shares of  Customers Bancorp Inc. Non-Cumulative Preferred Series E at $18.5 last week. (Prospectus floats at 5.14% spread to the 3 month Libor or the alternative rate, page S-17). I will discuss that purchase in my next post. 

I will be discussing the first quarter earnings reports for banks where I purchased the preferred shares given the current more dicey risk environment.   

2023 Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$32,646.25

+++

Putin and His Servile Orcs: 

Little would make sense about a drone attack on the Kremlin. Except this The video shows a small drone exploding over the Kremlin. Russia most likely staged the attack as a false flag operation and will use the incident as an excuse for committing more war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine. Russia made an effort to kill Zelensky early in February 2022 and had a kill or capture list of pro-democracy Ukrainians. U.S. warns that Russia has a 'kill list' of Ukrainians to be detained or killed-NPR (2/21/22). 

In responding to the alleged drone attack, Russia's former President, the Orc Dmitry Medvedev, stated that there "are no options left other than the physical elimination of Zelensky and his clique.” That has been Russia's only option, which existed before it decided to invade Ukraine and to decapitate its democratically elected government through murder, then imposing its Orwellian state on Ukrainians.  

Keir Giles - Russia's Hostile Intent - Why does Russia Behave like this? What does it achieve? - YouTube

Russian Commanders Put Troops in 'Holes' in Ground As Punishment The Orcs do not even have a thin veneer of being civilized. 

++++

Trump and His Anti-Democracy Party: 

Trump tops DeSantis by 36 points in new poll | The Hill

Debt ceiling: Millions of Americans could suffer if showdown isn't solved in next 30 days It is important to cut through the republican rhetoric about the U.S. debt and to evaluate what they are actually trying to accomplish. Republicans are once again trying to implement their policy objectives that could not be achieved through a normal democratic process.  

In 2013, the republican policy objective was to defund Obamacare, viewed by the democrats as Obama's signature achievement, in exchange for a short term increase in the debt limit. 2013 United States debt-ceiling crisis - Wikipedia

Republican-controlled states target college students' voting power ahead of high-stakes 2024 elections The general idea is to make voting as difficult as possible for those who cast votes for democrats. Voter suppression is just another part of the republican authoritarian playbook which also includes disenfranchisement of millions through political and racially motivated gerrymandering (e.g. Nashville). 

Judge dismisses Trump’s lawsuit against The New York Times Since the lawsuit was frivolous, the court ordered Trump to pay the NYT attorneys fees. As an integral part of his authoritarian personality, Trump uses litigation to intimidate those who exercise their First Amendment rights.  

“Get Him Out of Here”: Donald Trump Tossed NBC Reporter’s Phones During Tirade Aboard Campaign Plane | Vanity Fair; “Get him out of here”: Leaked audio reveals Trump lashing out at reporter and throwing his phones 

Donald Trump Once Again Claims He’s Been Treated Worse Than a President Who Was Very Famously Assassinated

E. Jean Carroll sounded 'breathless' and 'emotional' in call after alleged rape by Trump, friend testifies; 2 witnesses testify in support of E. Jean Carroll in Trump defamation case - YouTube; Trump team won't call witnesses in E. Jean Carroll defamation trial - CBS News

Trump's Own Words 'Prove' He Is Guilty of Wire Fraud: Kirschner

Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) calls Texas mass shooting victims 'illegal immigrants' in a statement offering condolences to their loved ones

Tucker Carlson’s Text That Alarmed Fox: ‘It’s Not How White Men Fight’ - The New York Times

It is easy to understand why Carlson is so popular among many republicans. A few might find him a tad distasteful. 

Texas Senate passes bill to allow secretary of state to overturn Harris County elections The law only allows the election results in Harris County, the largest in Texas and one that a Democrat will win, to be thrown out. 

Trump Rips Into DOJ For ‘Destroying’ the Lives of ‘Great American Patriots’ Day After Proud Boys’ Convictions In this rant, Delusional Don was referring to the felony convictions of his supporters who violently stormed the capital in an effort to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. The felony convictions included seditious conspiracy. In Trump's view, a trial by jury that results in felony convictions is just  a "RUBBER STAMP" hatched by the "Radical Left" who will be "COMING AFTER YOU!!!" next. 

Billionaire Harlan Crow paid for Justice Thomas' child to attend private school: report - YouTube; Clarence Thomas Raised Him. Harlan Crow Paid His Tuition. — ProPublica

Leonard Leo directed fees to Clarence Thomas’s wife, urged ‘no mention of Ginni’ - The Washington Post Leo is a far right reactionary lawyer who selects judges for the republicans who are willing to take America back to the 19th century jurisprudence. He is extremely well funded. According to the WP investigation, Leo told Kellyanne Conway to bill a nonprofit that he advises and use the money to pay Ginni Thomas but stipulated that the paperwork must make "No mention of Ginni, of course". 

Thomas has been giving a middle finger salute to Americans since he was first nominated for the Supreme Court. As summarized by Maureen Dowd, Thomas is still "bitter over being outed as a porn-loving harasser of women who worked for him". Opinion | Supremely Arrogant - The New York Times

At the Supreme Court, Ethics Questions Over a Spouse’s Business Ties - The New York Times This article refers to an investigation involving Jane Sullivan Roberts who is married to the CJ John Roberts. 

++

1. Corporate Bonds: $9,000 in principal amount 

A. Bought 2 PNC Financial 3.9% SU Maturing on 4/9/24 at a Total Cost of  98.598: 

Issuer: PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC) 

PNC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

PNC SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/23 

PNC SEC Filings 

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Rating: A3/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 5.35%

The 1 year treasury bill closed last Friday at 4.73%. 

Current Yield at TC = 3.96%

B. Bought 2 PNC Financial 3.5% SU Maturing on 1/23/2024 at a Total Cost of 98.822: 

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: A3/A-

YTM at Total Cost: 5.175%

Current yield at TC : 3.54% 

C. Bought 1 Truist 3.2% SU Maturing on 4/1/24 at a Total Cost of 98.19: 

Issuer: Truist Financial Corp. (TRC) - Super Regional Bank Holding Company (originally issued by SunTrust)

I have a small ball position in the common stock that has a higher yield at my AC and at closing price last Friday (7.25% at $28.78).  I added 1 share last week at $26.33, which I will discuss in my next post.  

TFC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

TFC SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/23

TFC SEC Filings

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)

Credit Ratings: A2/A

YTM at TC = 5.245%

Current Yield at TC = 3.26%

D. Bought 2 Old Republic International 4.875% SU Maturing on 10/1/24 at a Total Cost of 99.409: 

Issuer: Old Republic International Corp. (ORI) 

I have a small ball position in the common stock. I quit reinvesting the dividend in 2021: 

Price as of 5/5/23 Close/Schwab Taxable Account

ORI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

ORI SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/23 

ORI SEC Filings 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 5.311%

Current Yield at TC =  4.9%

I had 2 prior round-trips in a 3.875% ORI SU bond maturing on 8/26/26. 

FINRA Page I do not currently own that one. 

E. Bought 2 General Motors Finance 3.95% SU Maturing on 4/13/24 at a Total cost of 98.603: 

Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of General Motors Co. (GM) 

GM SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/22 

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 5.481%

Current Yield at TC = 4%

2.  Eliminated NVS - Sold 10 at  $103.35: 

Quotes: 

USDs: Novartis AG ADR

Swiss Francs (CHF): Novartis AG Stock Quote (Switzerland: SWX )

ADR Ratio: 1 for 1 

Proceeds: $1,033.54

20-F (2022 SEC Filed Annual Report)

NVS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Investors | Novartis

News Archive | Novartis

Novartis AG (ADR) Key Metrics | Reuters

NVS SEC Filings (foreign company forms)

Profit Snapshot:  $233.02 (4/26/23 sale only)

Dividend: Annual

Last Dividend Payment 10 Shares: 

Foreign Tax at 35%

Under the U.S.-Switzerland Tax Treaty, I am entitled to no higher than a 15% tax rate. However, the broker must claim my treaty right at the source, or Switzerland will withhold at 35% which is the rate for citizens of countries that do not have a tax treaty. 

Fidelity did not assert my treaty right to 15% so I paid 35%. Sometimes, Fidelity will later seek a refund of the excess foreign tax paid, but that is spotty. 

Last Ex Dividend: 3/9/23

Last Discussed: Item # 5.F. Pared NVS - Sold 2 at $92.58 (1/23/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $11.67) I discussed the 2022 third quarter report in that post. Financial Report Q3 2022

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4.C. Added 2 NVS at $78.3; 1 at $76.2; 1 at $74.56 (9/27/22 Post)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23):  Financial Report Q1 2023 or Novartis delivers strong sales growth, robust margin expansion and major innovation milestones. Raises FY guidance | Novartis

NVS reports in USDs. 

Core E.P.S. = $1.71, up from $1.46 in the 2022 first quarter

Consensus at $1.54

Net Income: $2.294B

Free Cash Flow: $2.72B

Revenues: $12.953B up 3.4%

Top 20 Product Revenues: 

NVS will be spinning off Sandoz later this year. 

Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3 Sold 108+ NVS at $83.66 (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $968.85, the largest single trading gain to date); Item # 1 Eliminated NVS-Sold 29 at $86.35 (10/24/18 Post)(profit snapshot $298.77); Item # 3.D Sold 10 NVS at $85.96 and 5 at $86.5-Used Commission Free Trades (10/10/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.98); Item 2.A. Sold 30 NVS at $93.85 (2/3/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $184.26); Item # 3 Sold 50 NVS at $41.86 (6/17/2009 Post)(profit snapshot +$230.94) Since those sell discussions, NVS spun out Alcon Inc. (ALC) which resulted in a significant reduction in the NVS price.  

NVS Realized Gains to Date: $1,960.49

Current Position: None

No realized losses to date. 

NVS has a significant weighting in two stock funds that I own. 

CEF: Swiss Helvetia Fund (SWZ)(weighted at 10.52% as of 3/31/22); Swiss Helvetia Fund (SWZ) Performance | Morningstar  

ETF: Franklin FTSE Switzerland ETF (FLSW) (11.76% weighting as of 4/27/23); Performance – Franklin FTSE Switzerland ETF | Morningstar

Roche, Nestle, and Novartis will generally have a combined weighting in the 40%-44% range in a Switzerland stock fund. Nestle will be close to 20%. 

Morningstar Rating (4/25/23): 2 stars with a FV estimate of $90. 

3. Small Ball: 

A. Added to MBINP - Bought 5 at $21.37; 5 at $17.7: 

Quote: Merchants Bancorp  Fixed to Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Series A Preferred Stock

Cost: $195.35

This is a fixed-to-floating rate equity preferred stock issued by the bank holding company Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)

MBIN SEC Filings

MBIN | Merchants Bancorp Analyst Estimates

MBIN SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/23:

Net Income: $55M or $1.07 per share

NIM: 3.27%, up from 2.62% 

Efficiency ratio: 30.3% 

NPL Ratio: .76%

ROA = 1.71% 

Tangible Book value per share: $22.88, up from $18.7 in the 2022 first quarter. 

"As of March 31, 2023, the Company had $4.0 billion in unused borrowing capacity with the Federal Home Loan Bank and the Federal Reserve Discount window, based on available collateral."

"The Company’s most liquid assets are in unrestricted cash, short-term investments, including interest-bearing demand deposits, mortgage loans in process of securitization, loans held for sale, and warehouse lines of credit included in loans receivable. Taken together, with unused borrowing capacity, these totaled $7.8 billion, or 55%, of the $14.2 billion in total assets as of March 31, 2023."

"Uninsured deposits totaled approximately $2 billion as of March 31, 2023, representing less than 25% of total deposits."

MBIN increased the quarterly common share dividend to $.08 from $.07. Merchants Bancorp Common Stock (MBIN) Dividend History | Nasdaq I have never owned the common shares, mostly due to the low dividend yield. 

From a preferred stock owner's perspective, the low dividend payout ratio is a plus. The common share cash dividend would also have to be eliminated before the elimination of the non-cumulative preferred dividend.   

Last Discussed: Item # 5.D. Bought 5 at MBINP at $23.43 (11/8/22 Post); Item # 4.A. Started MBINP - Bought 10 at $24.01 (7/3/2020 Post) 

Bank preferred stocks were under selling pressure last year due to the rise in interest rates. Renewed downside pressure stated with the Silicon Valley Bank and Signatures bank seizures in March 2023. The holding company that owned SVB has a preferred stock that is now trading near $1, with the trades occurring on the U.S. Grey Market after the delisting. Preferred stocks issued by First Republic will probably have the same fate. 

Average cost per share: $22.08 (25 shares)

Prospectus

Par Value: $25

Dividends: Quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative

Fixed Coupon: 7% to but excluding 4/1/24

Quarterly Penny rate: $.4375 per share ($1.75 annually)

Yield at AC = 7.93%

Yield at $17.7: 9.89%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/14/23

Floating Rate: staring on 4/1/24, if not called at the issuers option, coupon floats at a 460.5 basis points above the 3 month libor rate or the alternative rate specified in the prospectus.  

If the stock is not redeemed on or after 4/1/24, the alternative rate, probably SOFR, will be used since Libor would no longer exist. 

Stopper Clause: Standard. The issuer will have to eliminate the cash common stock dividend before eliminating the preferred dividend. I use the word "elimination" rather than "deferred" since the dividend is non-cumulative. Once a preferred stock dividend is lawfully eliminated, the owner has no legal right to receive it until the issuer starts paying a cash dividend (or uses cash to buy back stock). Generally, the trigger for starting to pay a previously eliminated preferred stock dividend would be the resumption of a cash common stock dividend.  

For a bank holding company preferred stock, the seizure of the operating subsidiary by the FDIC would send the preferred stock to zero or possibly a dollar or so before the stock is cancelled in a BK.

B. Added 5 THQ at $18.58:

Quote:  Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund Overview- Leverage Stock CEF

Cost: $92.9

Tekla Healthcare Opportunities (THQ)-Morningstar (rated 4 stars)

Tekla Healthcare Opportunities (THQ) Performance | Morningstar

Sponsor's website: Tekla Capital

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation

SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 9/30/22 

THQ SEC Filings 

SEC Filing: Holdings as of 12/31/22 

Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Added 5 THQ at $18.25 (3/25/23 Post) This post contains links to prior sell discussions. 

Average cost per share: $19.3 per share (25 shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.1125 (Some ROC support) 

Yield at AC per share: 6.98%

Last Ex Dividend: 4/19/23

Data Date of 4/27/28 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset value per share: $21.32

Closing Market Price: $18.8

Discount: -11.82%

Discount at $18.58: -12.85%

Average 3 year discount: -6.57%

Sourced: THQ  - CEF Connect 

THQ Realized Gain to Date: $822.13

C. Restarted MATV - Bought 5 at $18.95; 5 at $18.1; 5 at $16.6: 

History this Account:

Quote: Mativ Holdings Inc.  (MATV)

Cost: $268.25 

SWM and Neenah Complete Merger to Become Mativ, a ~$3 Billion Global Leader in Specialty Materials (July 2022)

Advanced Technical Materials and Fiber-Based Solutions | Mativ

MATV SEC Filings

MATV Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Eliminated MATV - Sold 30 at $27.97 (2/27/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $209.35) I discussed the 2022 4th quarter report in that post which I viewed unfavorably, SEC Filed Earnings Press Release); Item # 5.C. Eliminated MATV in Schwab Account - Sold 18+ at $25.06 and Item #5.D - Pared MATV in Fidelity Account - Sold 15 at $26.05 (1/23/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $107.17)

Average cost per share: $17.88 (15 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.40

Yield at $18.95: 8.95%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/8/23

Purchase Restriction: 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. 

The next earnings report will be released next week. 

D. Added 5 ONB at $13.45: 

Quote: Old National Bancorp (ONB)

Cost: $67.25

ONB Analyst Estimates

ONB SEC Filings

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. Added 5 ONB at $13.7 (4/15/23 Post) 

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.B. Restarted ONB - Bought 10 at $14.23 (4/8/23 Post) I discussed the 2022 4th quarter report in that post. SEC Filing

New Average cost per share: $13.9 (20 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually) 

The payout ratio is too low for a bank holding company. 

Yield at AC = 4.03%

Last Ex Dividend: 2/28/23

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/21/23): SEC Filing 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.49

Adjusted E.P.S. = $.54

"Included in the first quarter was pre-tax charges of $1.3 million for property optimization and $14.6 million related to the February 15, 2022 merger with First Midwest. Excluding these transactions and $5.2 million of realized debt securities losses from the current quarter, adjusted net income was $159.1 million, or $0.54 per diluted common share."

NIM: 3.69%

"Accretion income on loans and borrowings was $7.9 million, or 8 bps of net interest margin, in the first quarter of 2023 compared to $10.4 million, or 10 bps of net interest margin, in the fourth quarter of 2022." I ignore this accounting entry and look at NIM ex accretion income. This accounting entry occurs when loans are purchased at a discount to fair value, usually in a merger and the discount is then accreted back in interest income until the loan matures, is paid off or sold. The accounting entry temporarily juices NIM and GAAP earnings.  

Efficiency Ratio: 52.8%, adjusted to 48.8% 

NPL Ratio: .74%

Charge off ratio: .21%  

ROTE: 21%, adjusted to 23.4%

Tangible Book Value per share: $9.98 

Deposit Information: Steady IMO

Purchased 1.8M shares during the quarter.  

ONB Realized Gains to Date: $943.37

Largest Single Gain: $312.97, Item 2.A. Eliminated ONB-Sold 50 Shares at $18.55 (2/27/17 Post)

E. Added 5 GLQ at $5.96: 

Quote: Clough Global Equity Fund Overview

Cost: $29.8

Sponsor's website: Clough Global - GLQ

Leverage: Substantial at close to 53%. 

Investment Categories: Monthly Income Generation; Lottery Ticket Basket (so classified based on poor recent performance)

GLQ SEC Filings

SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 10/31/22 

SEC Filing: Holdings as of 1/31/23 

Data Date of 4/28/23 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $7.25

Closing Market Price: $5.96

Discount: -17.79%

Average 3 year discounts:  -6.92%

Sourced: GLQ  - CEF Connect 

Average cost per share: $8.1 (45+ shares)

Dividends: Monthly at $.0599 ($.7188 annually), cut from $.1162 effective for the January 2023 payment. The fund was and is currently nowhere close to covering the dividend with income. ROC has generally been at 100% of the dividend. Leverage costs have been devouring ordinary income and the fund has not been able to generate sufficient capital gains to support the prior dividend. The fund also sells some stocks and stock ETFs short. 

Yield at New AC = 8.87%

Next ex dividend: 5/18/23

I would fire the manager. 

I am adding only in 5 share lots based on the recent poor performance. Each subsequent purchase must lower my AC per share. I have started to reinvest the monthly dividend given the current discount.  

Clough Global Equity (GLQ)-Morningstar - Unrated

F. Added 5 IDE at $9.48: 

Quote: Voya Infrastructure, Industrials & Materials Fund Overview - Buy-Write CEF

Cost: $47.4

IDE SEC Filings

SEC Filing: Holdings as of 11/30/22 

SEC Filed Semi-annual Shareholder Report for the period ending 8/31/22 

Sponsor's website: Voya Infrastructure, Industrials and Materials Fund

Average cost per share: $9.7 (25 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.229 per share ($.916 annually)

Some ROC Support. 

Yield at AC = 9.44% 

Last Ex Dividend: 4/3/23 (owned 20 shares as of)

Data Date of 4/28/23 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $11.39 

Closing Market Price: $9.48

Discount: -16.77% 

Average 3 year discount: -10.96%

Sourced:  IDE-CEF Connect 

Last Discussed: Item # 4.A. Bought 20 IDE at $9.76 (1/23/23 Post) 

IDE Realized Gains to date: $621.55

Largest Gain: $227.25, Item # 3 Sold 100 of the Stock CEF IDE at $20.3 (3/11/11 Post)

G. Added to NWBI - Bought 2 at $11.22; 3 at $10.75: 

Quote: Northwest Bancshares Inc. (NWBI)

"Headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, Northwest Bancshares, Inc. is the bank holding company of Northwest Bank. Founded in 1896 and headquartered in Warren, Pennsylvania, Northwest Bank is a full-service financial institution offering a complete line of business and personal banking products, as well as employee benefits and wealth management services. As of March 31, 2023, Northwest operated 142 full-service community banking offices and eight free standing drive-through facilities in Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio and Indiana." 

Cost: $22.44

Last Discussed: Item # 1.M. Restarted NWBI - Bought 10 at $11.99 (4/1/23 Post) 

Average cost per share: $11.86 (12 shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share 

NWBI Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at New AC : 6.745%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/3/23 (owned all as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filing 

Comparisons are to the 2022 first quarter. 

Net income = $33.7M, up from $28.3M

E.P.S. = $.26, up from $.22 

NIM: 3.47%, up 2.73%

NPL Ratio: .71%, down from 1.23%

NPA Ratio: .56%, down from .87% 

Charge off ratio: .08%

Coverage Ratio: 152.98%

Efficiency Ratio: 61.38%

Tangible Book value per share: $8.85 

Deposit: 3/31/23 ($11.537+B) vs 12/31/22 ($11.464+B)

H. Added to RTL - Bought 3 at $5.29: 

Quote: Necessity Retail REIT Inc. (RTL) - Externally Managed

Cost: $15.87

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Website: Necessity Retail REIT

Interactive Property Map — Necessity Retail REIT

2022 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 4 and ends at page 30; )

Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. Added to RTL - Bought 2 at $6.08 (4/1/23 Post) I discussed the 2022 4th quarter earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental

Average cost per share:  $6.93 (230+ shares)

This is a total cost number which has been reduced by ROC from the original cost amounts. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.2125 per share ($.85 annually)

Yield at New AC: 12.27%

Last Ex Dividend: 4/12/23

I. Added 5 AMCR at $10.7; 5 at $9.94: 

Quote: Amcor PLC

Amcor is a global packaging company. 

Cost: $103.18

5 shares were bought prior to the first quarter earnings report and 5 shares after.  

Amcor PLC Profile | Reuters

AMCR SEC Filings

Website: Global Packaging Solutions | Amcor

AMCR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, AMCR sold its factories in Russia. Amcor sells factories in Russia

Last Discussed: Item # 5. Eliminated AMCR in 2 Taxable Accounts - Sold 20 at $12.05 and 10+ at $12.03 (1/23/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $26.93) This is one of the stocks where I have eliminated duplicate positions in other taxable accounts and will buy more shares only in my Schwab account.  

Average cost per share: $11.55 (110 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.1225 per share ($.49 annually)

Shareholder Dividends | Amcor

Yield at New AC: 4.24% 

Next Ex Dividend: 5/23/23

Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/22): Amcor reports strong first half and second quarter fiscal 2023 result | Amcor This was the last earnings report available before this last 5 share purchase. 

GAAP Net Income = $691M or $.461 per share, which included a gain from selling AMCR's Russian factories. 

Adjusted E.P.S. = $.366 per share, up 8% on a comparable currency basis. 

F/Y Six Months: 

F/Y Ending 6/30/23 Guidance: Adjusted E.P.S. of $.77 to $.81

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filing and SEC Filed Slide Show 

I bought 5 shares after this report was released last Wednesday. Investors reacted negatively to it as the company lowered guidance for the F/Y ending 6/30/23.  

E.P.S. = $.119 

Adjusted E.P.S. = $.175

Adjustments:

I would question the upward adjustment related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine since AMCR sold its Russia's operations in the second fiscal quarter. 

In addition to losing the Russian business, AMCR's earnings are negatively impacted by increased interest expense, some customer destocking, and lower volumes in part due to price increases tied to input cost inflation. 

Demand weakened in the fiscal third quarter. 

Revenues: $3.667B, up 1% on CC basis. 

Revenue Breakdown: Volume down 3%, prices up 4%

F/Y ending 6/30/23 Outlook: Adjusted E.P.S.  $.72-$.74, down from previous guidance of $.77 to $.81. 

For the first nine months of the F/Y, adjusted E.P.S. was reported at  $.541, up 4% on a comparable currency basis. 

J. Added to USB - Bought 1 at $31.65; 1 at $30.63; 1 at $28.7; 1 at $27.95:

Quote: U.S. Bancorp  (USB)

USB had $682.4B in assets as of 3/31/23. 

Cost: $118.93

USB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

USB SEC Filings

2022 Annual Report

Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to USB - Bought 1 at $34.25; 1 at $33.39 (3/25/23 Post) I discussed the 2022 4th quarter report in that post. 

Average cost per share: $33.02 (11 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.48 per share ($1.92 annually), last raised from $.46 effective for the 2022 third quarter payment. 

U.S. Bancorp (USB) Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at New AC  = 5.81%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/30/23

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filing and  SEC Filed Slideshow Presentation (deposit summary information at pages 8-9; owned investment security information at page 11)

GAAP E.P.S. = $1.04

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.16

GAAP is adjusted for acquisition related expenses. U.S. Bancorp Completes Acquisition of Union Bank (12/1/22)

Non-GAAP Net Income: $1.881B

NIM: 3.1%, up from 2.44% 

Efficiency Ratio: 63.2%

NPL Ratio: .3%

Charge off ratio: .39%, up from .21%

Total Capital Ratio: 12.1%

Book value per share: $30.12

Tangible Book value per share: $20.87, up 7.3% from the 2022 4th Q. (p. 3 Slideshow presentation)

USB is not currently repurchasing shares except in connection with stock based compensation programs:  

The bank will consider expanding its stock purchase program when its CET1 capital ratio, currently at 8.5%, hits 9%, taking into account the then current regulatory landscape. 

I am anticipating that the regulatory landscape will become more restrictive in response to the current bank turmoil. 

Analyst Reports Available to Schwab Customers: 

Morningstar (4/28/23): 5 stars with a fair value estimate of $58

S&P (4/24/23): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $37

Argus (4/19/23): Buy with a $58 PT revised down from $63

K. Started WSBCP - Bought 10 at $22.75; 5 at $17.6:

Quote: WesBanco Inc. 6.75% Perpetual Preferred Series A Stock 

Cost: $315.5

Issuer: - A Bank Holding Company

WSBC SEC Filings 

WSBC SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/23 

Net Income: $42.301M or $.71 per share

Net Income Available to Common Shareholders: $39.810 (preferred shareholders have first claim on $2.491M)

NIM: 3.36%, up from 2.95%

NPL Ratio: .36%

Coverage Ratio: 303%

Total Risk Based Capital Ratio: 14.48%

Charge off ratio: .07%

"Total deposits, as of March 31, 2023, were $12.9 billion, down 2.0%, when compared to December 31, 2022, reflecting the impact of rate and inflationary pressures and rising costs across the economy. Further, the Federal Reserve’s tightening actions to control inflation have resulted in industry-wide deposit contraction. Deposits declined approximately $360 million early during the quarter and remained flat through February and March. Despite the decrease in deposits, early in the quarter, the average loans to average deposits ratio remained relatively low at 83.5% for the first quarter of 2023."

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/23 (I would give the bank a "C" for interest rate risk management for its owned securities portfolio, see pages 10-12. The grade is due to the unrealized loss position as of 3/31/22 caused by the duration of the portfolio, and the apparent failure to meaningfully adjust duration in 2021. For the HTM and the AFS, the total unrealized loss as of 3/31/23 was $440.437M, down from $509.875M as of 12/31/22. The improvement during the last quarter was due to declines in longer term interest rates. Deposit information is at page 46. "Securities with an aggregate fair value of $2.1 billion at March 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022, respectively, were pledged as security for public and trust funds, and securities sold under agreements to repurchase.", page 11)

This equity preferred stock had a wide bid/ask spread when I made my 10 share purchase.  

Quote Intraday on 4/27/23

There were at least 2 separate fills occurring several hours apart. 

I no longer have a position in the common. I prefer owning this preferred which has a higher yield and a more senior position in the capital structure.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.421875 per share (annually at $1.6875)

WesBanco, Inc. 6.75% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A (WSBCP) Dividend History | Nasdaq

Average cost per share = $21.03 (15 shares)

Yield at AC per share: 8.02%

Yield at $17.6: 9.59%

Last Ex Dividend: 4/28/23 (owned 10 shares as of)

Security Prospectus  

Par Value: $25

Dividends: Paid Quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative. 

Dividend Rates: 

Fixed Coupon: 6.75% to 11/15/25 to but excluding 11/15/25, 

Floating Rate: Then, if not redeemed, at a 6.557% spread to the five year U.S. treasury note, resetting every 5 years. Yesterday, the five year note closed at 3.41%. If the 5 year was at that yield on the first reset date in November 2025, the coupon would be 9.967% which would generate a 11.85% yield at a $21.03 AC per share. I would not make a prediction now on what the 5 year treasury yield will be in November 2025. A coupon in excess of the current 6.85% fixed rate would occur with a 5 year treasury yield greater than .193%. 

I would anticipate that Wesbanco will redeem this security at par value rather than pay the reset rate, assuming it has the financial capability to do so.  

Stopper Clause: Standard  

Issuer Optional Redemption at par value: On or after 11/15/2025 on the dividend payment dates. 

Other Securities: 

$150M 3.75% Fixed to Floating Rate Junior Bonds due 2032, Prospectus (March 2022);  FINRA Page (seldom trades)

Many Junior bonds issued by bank holding companies legally permit a deferral of interest payments, usually for up to 10 years, provided cash dividends are not paid on the common and equity preferred stocks during the deferral period. The deferred interest payments will generally accrue interest at the coupon rate. I did not see any right to deferral in the WSBC junior bond prospectus. Both the coupon and floating rate provision (1.787% above 3 month SOFR starting in 2027, if not called at par value) are beneficial IMO to WSBC. The bank was fortunate to have sold this junior bond in March 2022. I would give the bank an "A" for that timing. The junior bond does rank above the equity preferred stock in the capital structure. 

L. Added 5 PNNT at $4.95; 5 at $4.75: 

Quote: PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT)

Cost: $48.5

SEC Filings

Website: Investors | PennantPark

Investment category: Lottery Ticket Basket, deservedly hated BDC with a high current dividend yield. 

New AC per share: $5.3 per share (25+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.185 per share ($.74 annually)

PennantPark Investment Corporation (PNNT) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at New AC: 13.96%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/15/23

I have nothing further to add to my most recent substantive discussion. Item # 1.F. Bought 5 PNNT at $5.11 t (4/15/23 Post) I discussed the last earnings report and unfavorable dividend and net asset value per share history in that post. 

M. Added to MBWM - Bought 2 at $26.25; 3 at $24.5: 

Quote: Mercantile Bank Corp.

Cost $126

MBWM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

MBWM SEC Filings

New Average cost per share: $28.44 (25 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.33 per share ($1.32 annually), last raised from $.32 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment. The regular dividend rate was at $.16 in the 2016 second quarter. There were special dividend payments of $.75 per share and $.50 per share in 2018 and 2016 respectively. 

Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at New AC:  4.64%

Next Ex Dividend: 6/1/23

Last Discussed: Item # 1.J. Added to MBWM - Bought 3 at $27.6 (4/29/23 Post) 

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.H. Added 2 MBWM at $28.75; 5 at $28.6  (4/22/23 Post)I discussed the 2023 first quarter report in that post. SEC Filing I viewed the report favorably. 

N. Added 5 OLP at $21.15: 

Quote: One Liberty Properties Inc.  (OLP) - Micro Cap Internally Managed Equity REIT

Cost $105.75

OLP SEC Filings

2022 Annual Report

Website: One Liberty Properties, Inc. 

Properties | One Liberty Properties | REIT (121, 31 states, 11,3174+M square feet 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Started OLP - Bought 10 at $21.85 (4/29/23 Post) I discussed the 2022 4th quarter report in that post. SEC Filing

New Average cost per share: $21.62 (15 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.45 per share ($1.8 annually)

One Liberty Properties, Inc. (OLP) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at New AC = 8.33%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/24/23

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filing 

FFO per share: $.47, down from $.5 in the 2022 first quarter, with the decrease "due primarily  to the inclusion, in the 2022 quarter, of the $918,000 of insurance recovery and increases, in the 2023 quarter, in operating and interest expense; the decrease in FFO was offset by an increase in rental income."

AFFO per share: $.50, unchanged 

GAAP Net Income to FFO to AFFO Calculations: 

"In February 2023, the Company sold a restaurant property located in Hauppauge, New York for $4.1 million and recognized a $1.5 million gain. This property contributed $55,000 of rental income and $19,000 of depreciation in the three months ended March 31, 2022. The Company used the net proceeds from the sale to reduce the outstanding balance on its credit facility."

Rental income increased 7%. 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/23 

"During the second quarter of 2023, we anticipate (i) completing the sale of the Havertys Furniture retail property located in Duluth, Georgia for a gross sales price of $6.0 million and (ii) recognizing a gain of $3.1 million from this sale during the three and six months ending June 30, 2023. This property contributed (i) $91,000 and $95,000 of rental income, net, (ii) $23,000 and $23,000 of depreciation and amortization expense and (iii) $0 and $16,000 of mortgage interest expense in the three months ended March 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. We intend to use the net cash proceeds of approximately $5.9 million to pay down our credit facility." 10-Q at page 26.

O. Added to ICMB - Bought 5 at $3.39: 

Quote: Investcorp Credit Management BDC Inc. Overview

Cost: $16.95

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket - Deservedly Hated BDC with a current high yield. 

ICMB SEC Filings

Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Added to ICMB - Bought 5 at $3.5 (4/29/23 Post) 

New Average cost per share:  $4.85 per share (117+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.13 per share or $.52 annually (regular) 

Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc. (ICMB) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

There was a 2 cent per share special dividend paid in the 2023 first quarter. 

Yield at New AC = 10.72% (regular dividend only)

Last Ex Dividend: 3/9/23

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.E. Added to ICMB - Bought 5 at $3.73 (4/8/23 Post) I discussed the 2022 4th quarter report in that post and have nothing further to add here. Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc. Announces Financial Results for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2022, and Quarterly and Supplemental Distributions

4. CDs- FDIC Insured: $11,000

A. Bought 2 Cathay Bank 5% CDs Maturing on 8/9/23: 

Operating Subsidiary for the bank holding company Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) 

CATY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

CATY Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/23 

I have a small ball position in the common stock. 

B. Bought 2 Enterprise Bank 5.05% CDs Maturing on 11/6/2023: 

Interest paid monthly 

Operating subsidiary of the bank holding company Enterprise Financial Services Corp. (EFSC) 

EFSC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

EFSC SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/23 

C. Bought 2 Washington Trust 5.05% CDs Maturing on 8/17/23:

Operating subsidiary for the bank holding company Washington Trust Bancorp Inc. (WASH) 

D. Bought 2 Independent Bank 5.1% CDs Maturing on 11/13/23: 

Operating subsidiary for the bank holding company Independent Bank Group Inc. (IBTX) 

Just kicking the can down the road with a T Bill that matured in my Schwab account with Items A, C and D above. 

E. Bought 1 Goldman Sachs Bank 5.15% CD Maturing on 5/7/24: 

Interest paid monthly. 

F. Bought 2 Washington Trust 5.1% CDs Maturing on 5/17/24: 

Same issuer as Item C. above. 

5. Small Ball Sells: 

I am continuing to reduce my allocation to non-dividend paying stocks and low yielding stocks and stock funds. I am placing more emphasis on current yield. 

A. Eliminated CLX - Sold 4+ at  $167.87: 

Quote: Clorox Co.

Proceeds: $750.86

CLX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

CLX SEC Filings

Brands | The Clorox Company

Profit Snapshot: Net +$4.74

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.18 per share ($4.72 annually), last raised from $1.16 effective for the 2022 third quarter payment. 

The Clorox Company (CLX) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $167.87: 2.81%

Last Ex Dividend: 4/25/23 (owned as of) 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filing 

Investors reacted positively to this report which was released shortly after I eliminated my position. I did not have the same reaction. 

GAAP E.P.S. Loss: ($1.71), resulting from a $362M noncash impairment charge or $2.92 per share 

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.51, up from $1.31

Net sales "increased 6% to $1.91 billion compared to a 2% net sales increase in the year-ago quarter. The net sales increase was driven largely by favorable price mix, partially offset by lower volume."

B. Eliminated BZH - Sold 7 at $19.57: 

Quote: Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH)

BZH Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

BZH SEC Filings

Proceeds: $137.02

Profit Snapshot: $20.94

Last Discussed: Item # 3.G. Restarted BZH - Bought 5 at $17.52 (8/20/21 Post) 

Dividend: None and none expected. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filing 

E.P.S. $1.13, down from $1.45

"Homebuilding revenue of $542.0 million, up 6.9% on a 8.4% increase in average selling price to $509.9 thousand, partially offset by a 1.4% decrease in home closings to 1,063"

"Net new orders of 1,181, down 8.5% on a 11.7% decrease in orders per community per month to 3.2, partially offset by a 3.6% increase in average community count to 123". 

"Backlog dollar value of $987.2 million, down 37.7% on a 40.5% decrease in backlog units to 1,858, partially offset by a 4.7% increase in average selling price of homes in backlog to $531.3 thousand."

"Controlled lots of 23,820, up 1.3% from 23,516"

BZH is not going to have much of a P/E multiple applied to TTM E.P.S.. Earnings are highly cyclical and can crater quickly. The rise in mortgage rates and the increased prices resulting from inflation are major headwinds for homebuilders. A recession would add another. 

E.P.S. for the F/Y ending on 9/30/22 was $7.17, up from $4.01 in F/Y 2021 and $1.74 in F/Y 2020. F/Y 2022 Annual Report at page 42 

C. Eliminated MDLZ - Sold 3 at $77.59: 

Quote: Mondelez International Inc. Cl A  (MDLZ)

MDLZ Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

MDLZ SEC Filings

MDLZ. Key Metrics | Reuters

MDLZ Profile | Reuters

Our Brands | Mondelēz International, Inc.

Proceeds: $232.76

Profit Snapshot: $60.1

Last Discussed: Item # 3.D. Sold 3 MDLZ at $66.32 (3/19/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.6). I discussed the 2022 4th quarter report in that post. 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 6.O. Added to MDLZ - Bought 1 at $56.05 (10/18/22 Post); Item # 2.G. Bought 2 MDLZ at $58.31 (11/5/21 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.385 per share ($1.54 annually)

Dividend Info | Mondelēz International, Inc.

Yield at $1.54 annual dividend at $77.59: 1.98%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/30/23

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filing 

The stock price received a boost from this report. 

GAAP E.P.S. = $1.52

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.89

Consensus non-GAAP = $.80 per Schwab 

Adjustment GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

2023 Guidance: Adjusted E.P.S. growth of 10+% on a CC basis

I tend to discount revenue growth attributable to price increases resulting from higher input costs. Organic sales did increase 19.4% with price increases contributing a 16.2% benefit and volume at 3.2%. Volume growth with that kind of price increase is unusual and a positive.  

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab Customers)

Morningstar (4/28/23): 2 stars with a FV estimate of $69

S&P (5/1/23): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $79

Argus (5/1/23): Hold and would raise to buy at $60

I do not have access to a GS report where the analyst raised the PT to $86 from $73 and maintained a buy rating in response to this earnings report. 

Current MDLZ position: None

I will consider restating a position at less than $60. My last purchase was at $56.05. 

D. Eliminated TECB - Sold 5 at $32.44: 

Quote: iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF Overview

Sponsor's website: iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF

Expense Ratio: .4%

Profit Snapshot: +$26.65

Last Discussed: Item # 7.B. Restarted TECB - Bought 5 at $27.11 (11/15/22 Post) 

Prior Elimination: Item # 1.E. Eliminated TECB in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $42.80 and Item #1.F Eliminated TECB in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $43.57 (12/10/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $179.84)

Top 10 Holdings as of 5/3/23: 

Dividends: Given the number of non-dividend paying stocks and the expense ratio, I would not expect this fund to pay much in dividends which has been the case. 

Last 4 Quarterly Dividend Payments: $.15, rounded down. Less than 1/2 of 1% at $32.44. 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.