ABB, AMCR, IDE, MATV, NVS, OCSL, OGN, OHI, ORAN, PGX, REET

Economy: 

Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in December, much more than expected; retail sales fall Retail sales declined 1.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to November, but were up 6% unadjusted for inflation. The headline CPI number for 2022 was up 6.5%. 

Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey | MBA (up 27% for the W/E 1/13/23 compared to the prior week) 

Jamie Dimon says rates will rise above 5% because there is still 'a lot of underlying inflation'

Microsoft is laying off 10,000 employees

The various U.S. manufacturing surveys have declined precipitously. The following graphs are from the New York Fed's NY manufacturing survey for January 2023:  

Dimon says Congress shouldn't play games with U.S. creditworthiness I would disagree with Dimon's use of the word "Congress". The issue is whether the republicans will caused a debt default by linking their approval of a debt limit increase to spending cuts that the democrats can not accept. Dimon should have just said "republicans" shouldn't play games since they are the only ones doing so. And, it is important to point out that the republicans do not play this game when there is a republican President, but only when there is a Democrat President. 

U.S. hits debt limit, Janet Yellen says Treasury taking extraordinary measures

An increase in the debt limit does not authorize new spending but merely permits the federal government to pay what it owes under existing legislation. 

Any default on those obligations would have a long term negative impact on the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. 

In 2011, the GOP controlled House almost caused a debt default, finally approving an increase two days before the government ran out of money. During that brinkmanship, the S & P 500 declined by 16.8% between 7/22/11 and 8/8/11 and then took six months to recover. S&P downgraded U.S. debt 1 notch to AA+ on 8/6/2011. US loses AAA credit rating after S&P downgrade - BBC News 

And there is no doubt in my mind that the current crop of House republicans are far more irresponsible than the ones who took the nation to the brink in 2011. 

What happens if the government defaults? It would not be pretty. - The Washington Post

+++

Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post: 

Treasury Bills-Auction Purchases: +$20,000

Corporate Bonds: +$10,000 in principal amount

CDs: +$4,000

Treasury Bills, Corporate Bonds, CDs = +$34,000

Individual Common Stocks: -3,349.27

(consisting of $3,448.25 in proceeds minus $98.98 in purchases)

Common Stock Funds: -$379.06

Net Stock and Stock Fund Reduction: -$3,728,33

"Preferred" Stock ETF = +$124.3 

Realized Gains Stocks and Stock Funds: +$ 343.11

Experts Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2023 Edition | Morningstar (available to non-subscribers)

+++

Putin and His Orcs: 

Russia taken 180,000 dead or wounded in Ukraine: Norwegian army; US intelligence claims Russia has suffered a staggering 188,000 casualties in Ukraine | Daily Mail Online; Over 120,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine since full-scale war started | Ukrainska Pravda The Russian government will never disclose an accurate total, possibly acknowledging no more than 10% of the actual number killed or wounded. 

Over 100 Russian Soldiers Buried Under Rubble After Strike on Base—Ukraine (1/23/23) This attack was on the Russian barracks located in Kadiivka. The dead soldiers included many linked to the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, one of Putin's favorites. 

The President of Orcland can not accept any peace agreement and remain in power (or avoid an early death), unless Russia secures its primary objectives in Ukraine. There is no backing down possible now, a natural and easily predictable result flowing from the invasion when it started. 

It does not matter to Putin that this decision will leave Russia's economy in shambles for generations. Sanctions are only beginning to hurt.   

If Russia loses over 500,000 soldiers, that is irrelevant to Vlad as well, since they are viewed as unimportant cannon fodder anyway. Being a violent psychopath, Putin's attempts to express empathy fall flat which is obvious to anyone observing his infrequent efforts to imitate human emotions. 

The fact that the Orcs are killing Russian speaking Ukrainians, destroying their homes and businesses, and sending them into abject poverty is even more irrelevant and unimportant to Vlad than the loss of Russian soldiers, and it is hard to even imagine anything being less important.     

The Orc objectives include Ukraine's recognition that Crimea and the 4 recently annexed internationally recognized Ukrainian territories belong to the Russian federation. Russia also wants "denazification" and "demilitarization", meaning that Ukraine must abandon its democracy and western supplied military equipment in favor of a Russian controlled puppet government for the Western Ukrainian territory north of Odessa that Russia may allow Ukraine to keep until Russia decides to take it. 

Watching hundreds of interviews with ordinary Russians, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the deaths and suffering that it causes daily, is viewed as necessary to protect the Motherland from a Ukrainian invasion, which is just more evidence that the population has been warped into believing nonsensical and false information created by a 100% pure Orwellian state.  

The Greatest Nuclear Threat We Face Is a Russian Victory - The Atlantic  

The Russian State Duma President, Vyacheslav Volodin, threatened the West with nuclear war over the new conventional arms being supplied to Ukraine that are necessary to defend against the Russian invasion. 

Top Russia official threatens West with ‘global catastrophe’ over weapons to Ukraine-POLITICO (1/22/23) (Volodin: “Arguments that the nuclear powers have not previously used weapons of mass destruction in local conflicts are untenable. This is because these states have not faced a situation in which the security of their citizens and the territorial integrity of their countries were threatened.  With their decisions, Washington and Brussels are leading the world to a terrible war … foreign politicians making such decisions need to understand that this could end in a global tragedy that will destroy their countries.”) Russia currently views about 1/5th of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory to already be part of the Russian federation. The rest will come later. Providing tanks that will give Ukraine an opportunity to take back its internationally recognized territory from Russia may, according to Volodin, require Russia to annihilate the West with nuclear weapons.   

The former Orc President Dmitry Medvedev, had this to say: "In case of a protracted conflict, a new military alliance will emerge that will include the nations that are fed up with the Americans and a pack of their castrated dogs." So the North Korea, Venezuela and Belarus armies are going to be crossing the Rio Grande any day now. Someone may want to inform them how well armed Texans are. 

Margarita Simonyan, possibly Russia's most intelligent and thoughtful commentator who is allowed to speak to the Russian masses, had this to say: "Either we lose in Ukraine, or the Third World War starts. I think World War III is more realistic, knowing us, knowing our leader … That all this will end with a nuclear strike seems more probable to me." Russian State TV Comforts Viewers on Nuclear War: 'We All Die Someday' Simonyan has discussed Russia launching nuclear attacks against Ukraine, the U.S., the U.K. and Poland. 

The even more popular commentator on Putin TV, Vladimir Solovyov, made this comment which succinctly defines his intelligence: “We’ll either win, or humanity will cease to exist, because the Lord won’t stand for the triumph of warriors of the Antichrist.” 

Earlier Solovyov, another Vlad worthy of the nickname "Vlad the Impaler", stated that "life is overrated" and urged Russians to not be afraid of death since they are are going to heaven, echoing an earlier remark made last April that Russians will go to heaven after the nuclear war while westerners will "simply croak". To fulfill his death wish, I would suggest that this Orc volunteer for duty on the front lines. Solovyov may need to talk with the other Vlad about sparing his villas in Italy from a Russian first strike.   

Maybe it is just a question of time before the Orcs kill everybody on the planet so they can all ascend to their version of heaven, thereby continuing their self-inflicted suffering forever, or a place more appropriately described by Christians as Hell. Life is so overrated in Russia anyway.

Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Germany ready to let Poland send Leopard tanks to Ukraine: foreign minister – POLITICO; Ukrainian troops to start training Leopard 2 tanks in Poland - YouTube  

The U.S. is supplying Abrams tanks to Poland. Poland – M1A1 Abrams Main Battle Tanks | Defense Security Cooperation Agency 

Russia planning major offensive: Can Ukraine hold on without tanks? | DW News - YouTube

Russian Agents Suspected of Directing Far-Right Group to Mail Bombs in Spain - The New York Times

‘There was no promise not to enlarge NATO’ - Harvard Law School NATO exists to deter Russian aggression.  A Russian might ask themselves when did NATO threaten to invade Russia since its formation in 1949. NATO | Founders, History, Purpose, Countries, Map, & Facts | Britannica  And, if NATO did invade Russia with a conventional army, which will never happen, NATO members know that Russia would drop tactical nuclear bombs on the invading army and NATO military bases, and possibly population centers in NATO countries. Knowing that to be the case, why would an invasion ever be initiated? Why would any western democracy want to adopt Russia's troubled population?  Western companies will not even be making any investments in Russia henceforth, correctly viewing that nation as not worth the trouble. 

When NATO was formed, the Soviet Union had already occupied eastern Europe and was not going to leave. Democracies and free enterprise in those countries were snuffed out, leading to poor economies and lower standards of living

When those countries became independent democracies, and adopted a free enterprise economic system, they prospered and made a mockery, like Ukraine has done, of the Russian system. Russia is the most mismanaged countries in modern world history given its potential, and that will likely continue in periods measured by centuries rather than decades.  

The Orc threat to western democracies is real and reconfirmed by Russia's ongoing effort to abolish democracy in an independent Ukraine. Is it even possible for anyone in the democracies to read what Putin and other Orcs say and rationally conclude that Russia will stop its attacks on democracies with Ukraine?  The answer is clear and unequivocal. 

+++

Trump and His Party: 

Trump on 1/18/23: "Perhaps the Gestapo took some of these empty folders when they raided Mar-a-Lago, & counted them as a document, which they are not.  It’s also possible that the Trump Hating Marxist Thugs in charge will ‘plant’ documents while they’re in possession of the material. . . I did NOTHING WRONG. JOE DID!” @realDonaldTrump's post | Truth Social I would just note that Donald failed to comply with a grand jury subpoena demanding the production of documents marked classified.  

74,224,319 Americans voted to give Donald a second term as President.   

Donald Trump Mistook Photo Of E. Jean Carroll For His Ex-Wife Marla Maples

A Republican candidate paid for shootings targeting N.M. Democrats, police say : NPR

House GOP keeps up attack on IRS with bill to abolish the agency as Biden tries to rebuild it I doubt that any rational, fact based discussion can occur with the GOP controlled House. 

Records show George Santos' mom wasn't in the U.S. on Sept. 11 One of Santos' stories was that his mom died from this attack. 

George Santos denies performing in drag after local performer posts photos - YouTube

How an Investor Lost $625,000 and His Faith in George Santos - The New York Times; 

Disabled Veteran: George Santos Took $3K From Dying Dog's GoFundMe | Oyster Bay, NY Patch

New Rule: Explaining George Santos | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO) - YouTube

The Coming GOP Inquisition - The Atlantic

Trump drops lawsuit against New York Attorney General James This came one day after a judge sanctioned Delusional Don and his attorney for bringing a frivolous lawsuit against Hillary Clinton and others. Trump sanctioned for Hillary Clinton frivolous lawsuit; Trump and his attorneys on the hook for nearly $1 million in sanctions for Clinton lawsuit, judge says 

Kevin McCarthy has named Marjorie Taylor Greene, Paul Gosar, Jim Jordan, Andy Biggs, and Lauren Boebert to the House Oversight and Accountability Committee. Perhaps Greene can now investigate her claim that Jewish space lasers were starting forest fires in California.  

Tucker Carlson: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO) - YouTube

+++

1. Eliminated ORAN - Sold 100 at $10.59: 

Proceeds: $1,059.16

Quotes: 

USD: Orange ADR

Euros: Orange (France: Euronext Paris)

ADR Ratio: 1 for 1

Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

Website: ORAN SEC Filings

ORAN.PA - Orange SA Key Metrics | Reuters

ORAN is a dividend harvest play. The semiannual dividend was $31.42. Out of that dividend, there was taken a $3 ADR management fee and $4.02 by France as a tax, leaving me with $24.4. I will be able to recover most, if not all of the tax collected by France as a foreign tax credit. I am going to need a better entry price to use a dividend harvest strategy again. I will reconsider another attempt at less than $9.5.

Profit Snapshot: $20.55

Last Discussed: Item # 2. Bought Back 100 ORAN at $10.36 (8/16/22 Post) I discussed the semiannual report in that post. 

The third quarter report does not disclose earnings but provides information on revenues, EBITDAal and eCAPEX:

Latest consolidated results | Corporate

Definitions of EBITDAal and eCAPEX: 

Page 16:  Orange Detailed Press Release.pdf 

Last Round-Trip: Item # 2. Eliminated ORAN - Sold 100 at $11.77 (7/6/22 Post) 

Dividend: Semiannually

Orange (ORAN) Dividend History | Nasdaq

2. Treasury Bills: +$20,000

$18K sourced out of Schwab sweep account that currently pays .45%, recently raised from .4%.  

A. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at 1/17/23 Auction: 

91 Day Bill

Matures on 4/20/23

Interest: $115.27 

Investment Rate (coupon equivalent): 4.677%

B. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at 1/17/23 Auction: 

182 Day Bill

Matures on 7/20/23

Interest: $47.37 ($2,000 principal amount - $1,952.63 cost)

Cost: 97.6315 x 10 = $976.315 per bond x. 2 bonds

Investment Rate: 4.865%

C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at 1/19/23 Auction: 

56 Day Bill 

Matures on 3/21/23

Interest: $35.16

Investment Rate: 4.615%

D. Bought 3 Treasury Bills at 1/23/23 Auction: 

Matures on 4/27/23

91 Day Bill

Interest: $34.69

Investment Rate: 4.693%

3. Corporate Bonds: +$10,000

I am caught up discussing corporate bond purchases. Given the narrowing spreads to comparable maturity treasuries, I will not be buying more until the yields become attractive.

A. Bought 2 FS KKR 4.625% SU Maturing on 7/15/24 at a Total Cost of 97.822 : 

Issuer:  FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK) - A BDC

I own the common stock. 

SEC Filed Financial Report for the Q/E 9/30/22 

FSK SEC Filings

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)

Short Form Prospectus 

Credit Ratings: Baa3

Fitch has a BBB- rating with a stable outlook. Fitch Affirms FS KKR Capital Corp at 'BBB-'; Outlook Revised to Stable

YTM at Total Cost = 6.153%

I view the YTM as more consistent with the Bond Ghouls rating the bond at BB. 

Current Yield at TC = 4.728%

BDC bonds carry 3 inherent risks: (1) almost all net investment income is paid out to common shareholders; (2) loans are risky with some credit losses expected; and (3) debt levels are high.  

As of 9/30/22, FSK had $9.137B in debt and claimed assets then valued at $16.716B. Net investment income for the quarter was $216M. 

B. Bought 2 Associated-Banc 4.25% Junior Bond Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total cost of 97.594: 

Issuer: Associated Banc-Corp.  (ASB) 

ASB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

ASB SEC Filings 

I own the common stock. 

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Rating: Baa1

YTM at Total Cost: 5.532%

Current yield at TC = 4.3548%

C. Bought 2 Royal Bank of Canada 5.25% SU Maturing on 7/17/24 at Par Value - Fidelity Corporate Notes Program: 

Issuer:  Royal Bank of Canada Stock (RY) - USD Priced Shares

RY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 10/31/22): ROYAL BANK OF CANADA REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND 2022 RESULTS

Interest Paid Quarterly

Credit Ratings: A1 by Moody's/A by S & P

The "1" in the Moody's rating indicates that the bond ranks at the highest end of a "A" rating. If there was a "3" after the generic "A" rating, that would indicate that the bond is at the lowest end of bonds rated "A".  

D. Bought 1 Royal Bank of Canada 5.1% SU Maturing on 1/17/24 at Par Value - Fidelity Corporate Notes Program: 

See Item # 3.C. above. 

Interest paid quarterly. 

E. Bought 1 FNB 5.15% SU Maturing on 9/25/25 at a Total Cost of 99.95:

Issuer: F.N.B. Corp.

FNB SEC Filings

FNB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

I am redirecting the proceeds from recent FNB common stock sales into this FNB bond purchase. Item #4.A. Eliminated FNB in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 50+ at $13.045 and Item # 4.B. Eliminated FNB in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 57+ at $13.28 (1/10/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $641.75; proceeds at $1,442.64) 

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)

Prospectus 

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 5.169%

Current Yield at TC = 5.1526%

I prefer to have the YTM and current yield close to one another, but the opportunities for purchases are limited to more recently issued bonds. This FNB bond was issued last August. Most of my corporate bond purchases have YTMs higher than the current yield, as the vintage bonds with lower coupons have adjusted down in price which increases the YTM more than the current yield which may barely budge for a short term maturity notwithstanding the decline in price. 

F. Bought 2 CubeSmart 4% SU Maturing on 11/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.414: 

Operating entity for CubeSmart (CUBE) who guarantees the notes: 

I now own 6 bonds. 

I have a small ball position in the common stock:

Snapshot as of 1/20/23 Close

CUBE SEC Filings 

January 2023 SEC Filed Investor Presentation 

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost = 4.992%

Current Yield at TC = 4.1062%

4. Small Ball Buys: 

A. Bought 20 IDE at $9.76: 

Quote: Voya Infrastructure, Industrials & Materials Fund Overview 

Buy-Write CEF that invests in "companies in the infrastructure, industrials and materials sectors that will potentially benefit from the building, renovation, expansion and utilization of infrastructure."

IDE SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 8/31/22 

Sponsor's Website: Voya Infrastructure, Industrials and Materials Fund 

Data Date of 1/12/23 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $11.47

Closing Market Price: $9.75

Discount: -15%

Sourced: IDE-CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)

Dividend: Managed at a quarterly rate of $.229 per share (some ROC support)

Yield at $9.76: 9.385%

Last Discussion: Item # 3.B. Eliminated IDE -Sold 100 at $13.85 (1/29/2017)(profit snapshot = $46.96) This was a dividend harvest, where I held long enough to receive 1 quarterly dividend. 

Other Sell Discussions: 

Item # 1 Sold 50 IDE at 18.7 (9/30/10 Post)(+$49.08)

Item # 3 Sold 100 of the Stock CEF IDE at $20.3 (3/11/11 Post)(+$227.25) 

Item # 2 Sold 50 of the Stock CEF IDE at $18.61 (5/10/12 Post)(+$55.58) 

Item # 3 Sold 50 IDE at $17.12 Roth IRA (7/6/13 Post)(+$34.48) 

Item # 5 Sold 100 IDE at $17.47 (3/24/14 Post) (+$138.39)

A trade in November 2016 that netted a $70 profit was not discussed:

IDE Realized Gains to Date: $621.55 

B. Bought 10 OCSL at $7.09 -Schwab Account:

Quote: Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp. (OCSL) 

Formerly known as Fifth Street Finance (FSC)

This is my first purchase. A reader asked me recently whether I owned this BDC stock. The only way for me to monitor a price somewhat effectively is to see a stock in my portfolio rather than in a monitor list that has close to 600 stocks. 

After my purchase on 1/13/22, OCSL announced on 1/20/23 a 1 for 3 reverse stock split that took effect yesterday. That will leave me with 3 shares and a cash liquidation of the fractional share. 

OCSL SEC Filings 

Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 9/30/22 (risk factor summary starts at page 22 and ends at page 47; summary of investments starts at page 87)

Other Recent News: Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation Completes Merger with Oaktree Strategic Income II, Inc. (1/23/23)

Management: External

Net Asset Value per share history: 

 9/30/22 $6.79

12/31/21  $7.34

12/31/20 $6.85

12/31/19  $6.61

12/31/18  $6.19

Oaktree to Assume Management of Fifth Street Finance Corp. and Fifth Street Senior Floating Rate Corp. Business Development Companies | Oaktree Capital Group, LLC (7/14/17)

12/31/17   $5.81

12/31/16   $7.31

12/31/15   $8.41

Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share ($.72 annually), raised by 1 cent, and the tenth consecutive quarterly increase. 

OCSL paid a special dividend of $.14 per share that was paid on 12/30/22.

Yield at $7.09: 10.155% (at current $.18 per share regular dividend only)

Last Ex Dividend:  (regular only)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): SEC Filing 

This report was for the 4th fiscal quarter. 

Adjusted Net Investment Income per share = $.18

No loans were on nonaccrual status as of 9/30/22.

86.5% floating rate loans/13.5% fixed rate

Weighted average yield on debt investments = 10.6% with 9.3% being the cash yield (significant non-cash PIK interest). 

"As of September 30, 2022, the weighted average interest rate on debt outstanding, including the effect of the interest rate swap agreement, was 4.4%, up from 3.2% as of June 30, 2022, primarily driven by the impact of rising interest rates on the Company’s floating rate liabilities."

"Adjusted total investment income for the quarter ended September 30, 2022 was $68.0 million and included $59.6 million of interest income from portfolio investments, $6.0 million of payment-in-kind (“PIK”) interest income, $1.5 million of fee income and $0.9 million of dividend income. The increase of $7.0 million was primarily driven by $7.8 million of higher interest income primarily driven by the impact of rising interest rates on the Company’s floating rate investments, partially offset by $0.7 million of lower fee income primarily driven by lower prepayment fees."

Total Investment income is before expenses. 

I refer to PIK interest as pretend interest. PIK interest does not involve a current cash payment that can be used to support the dividend, but is instead merely added to the outstanding principal amount. When and if the loan is paid off in cash, the PIK interest payments are turned into real cash. If the borrower defaults, then the PIK interest, previously represented as supporting a dividend payments, will be lost in whole or substantial part. I have seen numerous examples when the entire loan, including the accretion to principal resulting from PIK interest "payments" made to a BDC, becomes worthless or almost so. 

C. Added to OHI - Bought 1 at $28.08: 

Quote: Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. (OHI) - Nursing Home and Senior Living REIT

OHI SEC Filings

Omega Healthcare - New Investor Presentation-January 2023.pdf As with other nursing home REITs, there will be operators who experience financial difficulties.  OHI discusses what is being done with some operators who are in financial difficulty at pages 11-13. Operator financial problems were aggravated by the pandemic which weakened operators already skating on thin ice. 

10-Q For the Q/E 9/30/22 (discusses operator issues at pages 12-14) I regard this issue as a major negative and explains my high level of caution.   

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Last Discussed: 

Item # 4.I. Eliminated OHI in Schwab Account - Sold 3 at $31.17 (11/22/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Item # 3.J. Pared OHI in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold Highest Cost 6 Shares at $33.11 (8/16/22 Post)

Risk Level: High IMO, mostly due to the owning nursing homes. 

New Average cost per share: $28.61 (17+ shares): 

Snapshot Intraday on 1/13/23 after add

Dividend: Quarterly at $.67 per share ($2.68 annually), last raised from $.66 effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment.  

Dividends – Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc.

Yield at $28.61: 9.37%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/31/22

Two Largest OHI Realized Gains: 

OHI Realized Gains to Date: $1,532.26

D. Restarted PGX - Bought 10 at $12.43: 

Quote: PGX | Invesco Preferred ETF Overview

The last trade in this account, as reflected in the previous snapshot, was to sell 50 shares at $14.35. Item # 1.A Sold 50 PGX at $14.35 (3/3/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $45.46)

Unlike the recently discussed VanEck Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF PFXF), PGX owns bank preferred stocks.  

As with other "preferred" stock ETFs, PGX owns some exchange traded bonds that pay interest. Examples include the exchange traded first mortgage bonds EAI, ELC and EMP. 

Sponsor's Website: Invesco Preferred ETF

Expense Ratio: .5%

Holdings 

Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate

Last Ex Dividend: 1/23/23

Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.A. Eliminated PGX - Sold 100 at $14.51 (8/1/2020)(profit snapshot = $61.46); Item # 2  Sold 100 PGX at $13.65 (9/14/13 Post)( Loss snapshot = -$116.54); Item # 5 Sold: 200 PGX at $14.38 (11/12/2010)(profit snapshot = $155.96)

Net Realized Gain PGX Trades to Date: +$146.34

5. Small Ball Sells: 

A. Eliminated OGN in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 12 at $30.67: 

Quote: Organon & Co.  (OGN)

Proceeds: $368.03

OGN was spun out of Merck in 2021. Merck Announces Completion of Organon & Co. Spinoff (6/3/21). As part of that spinoff, Merck received $9B funded by new Merck debt that was assumed by OGN. Page 9, and see page 25 SEC Filing

OGN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch 

OGN SEC Filings

Organon | Products list

I still own shares in my Fidelity taxable account. The average cost per share in that account is currently at $26.66. 

Profit Snapshot: +$38.47

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 5.F. Added to OGN in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $23.25 (10/25/22 Post); Item # 3.G. Bought 5 OGN at $25.1; 5 at $23.6 - Fidelity Taxable Account (10/4/22 Post) 

Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 3.I. Added to OGN in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $28.72 (9/6/22 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.28, unlikely to be raised IMO until debt is significantly reduced and the earnings trend reverses from Y-O-Y declines to meaningful increases.  

Last Ex Dividend: 10/10/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Comparisons are to the the 2021 third quarter. 

Continuing Operations E.P.S. numbers=

GAAP E.P.S. = $.89, down from $1.27

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.32, down from $1.58

GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation: 

Revenues: $1.537B, down from $1.6B

Revenues rose 3% at constant currencies. More than 1/2 of revenues are generated outside the U.S.

"As of September 30, 2022, cash and cash equivalents were $499 million, and debt was $8.7 billion."

Long Term Debt: 

Page 15, 10-Q 

Progress is being made in reducing the total amount. A substantial amount of debt, however, is priced at spreads to short term rates. 

As with every other pharmaceutical company, OGN has outstanding product litigation. OGN has exposure to product liability claims.  (see pages 16-18 of the 10-Q) The main product litigation involves the Merck drug Fosamax, and OGN is not a named defendant in that litigation, but is required to indemnify MRK as part of the separation agreement. Study Finds Common Osteoporosis Drug Does Not Raise Risk of Femur Fracture - News; Did Merck circumvent its duty to warn on 'Fosamax fractures'? - STAT Merck received a favorable opinion from the U.S. Supreme Court on federal preemption of a state law duty to warn. Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp. v. Albrecht | Oyez I do not have adequate information to even form an opinion on product and patent litigation issues. The issue is whether I am sufficiently concerned about them to avoid the stock altogether, recognizing that I may be wrong in that decision due to a lack of information.   

B. Eliminated REET in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 23+ at $23.74: 

Quote: REET | iShares Global REIT ETF Overview

Proceeds: $574.26

Sponsor's website: iShares Global REIT ETF | REET

Holdings: 349

Expense ratio = .14%

Profit Snapshot: $71.38

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.I. Restarted REET - Bought 5 at $16.52  (4/18/20 Post)

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.E Eliminated REET in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $27 (Post)(profit snapshot = $52.51) 

Dividend: Quarterly at a variable rate

I was not pleased that no dividend was paid in the 2022 4th quarter. The dividend yield is too low IMO for a REIT ETF.  The 2021 total dividend per share was $.55 which generates a yield of 2.32% at $23.74. 

Some Top Holdings as of 1/13/23

All of those companies are based in the U.S.  

C. Eliminated MATV in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 18+ at $25.06:

Quote: Mativ Holdings Inc.  (MATV)

Proceeds: $460.14

SWM and Neenah Complete Merger to Become Mativ, a ~$3 Billion Global Leader in Specialty Materials (July 2022)

Website: Specialty Materials Manufacturing 

Advanced Technical Materials and Fiber-Based Solutions | Mativ

MATV SEC Filings

MATV Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch  

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/22

The first purchase in the Schwab account was a 5 share lot bought at $21.68 (7/7/22). The other purchases were 1 to 5 share lots bought between $18.92 to $20.84.

Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Added to MATV in Fidelity Taxable Account- Bought 5 at $19.3; 5 at $18.55 (11/22/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release

Profit Snapshot: +$79.67

Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share

Last Ex Dividend: 11/23/22 

Yield at $25.06 Sales price: 6.385%

D. Pared MATV in Fidelity Account - Sold Highest Cost 15 Shares at $26.05: 

See Item # 5.C. above.

Proceeds: $390.73

Profit Snapshot: $27.48

This transaction is a typical small ball trading pattern which involves: (1) selling the highest cost shares profitably; thereby (2) lowering risk by reducing the dollar exposure to a stock and (3) increasing the dividend yield for the remaining shares. I would then consider buying back shares previously sold when the purchase would reduce my AC per share. So the next purchase will have to be below $19.94.   

Average cost per share before pare: $21.37 

Average cost per share after pare: $19.94 (30 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 1/17/23 after pare 

Yield at new AC per share this account: 8.024%

E. Eliminated ABB - Sold 20 at $34.235-Schwab Taxable Account:

Quotes: 

USDs: ABB Ltd. ADR

Swiss Francs: ABB Ltd.   (Switzerland: SWX )

Swiss Franc to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

Investors — ABB Group

ABB Ltd Key Metrics | Reuters

Proceeds: $648.68

My cost basis was adjusted down to reflect the spin off of Accelleron Industries AG (ACLLY)Swiss Exchange Quote: ACL.N-CH). U.S. stock symbols ending in "Y" are ADRs, priced in USDs, that are traded on the pink sheets. 

ABB completes Accelleron spin-off (Website: Accelleron Industries) 

I received 1 share of ACLLY in my Schwab account which I can not sell since Schwab started to charge a commission last year for pink sheet trades. The commission would exceed the proceeds from any sale. 

I will consequently have to buy far more shares, pay a $6.95 commission to buy and another $6.95 to sell, before I can liquidate that 1 share position which I have not done and do not plan to do anytime soon. 

Profit Snapshot: $66.96

Last Discussed: Item # 2.M. Added 5 ABB at $31.5 (3/10/22 Post) 

Dividend: Annual

The last dividend was for CHF.82 per share. 

Last Ex Dividend: 3/28/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): SEC Filing 

There was a $325M charge for the legacy Kurile project. ABB concludes settlements for Kusile project

F. Pared NVS - Sold 2 at $92.58: 

Quotes:

USDs: Novartis AG ADR

Swiss Francs: Novartis AG Stock Quote (Switzerland: SWX ) 

ADR Ratio: 1 for 1 

I sold the highest cost 2 shares using FIFO accounting. 

Proceeds: $185.15

Profit Snapshot: +$11.67

NVS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Investors | Novartis 

Novartis Pipeline | Novartis - Extensive

News Archive | Novartis

Novartis AG (ADR) Key Metrics | Reuters

NVS SEC Filings (foreign company forms)

Average cost per share before pare: $81.17

Average cost per share after pare: $80.05 (10 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 1/17/23 after pare

Dividends: Paid annually in Swiss Francs and converted into USDs for owners of the ADR.  Swiss Franc to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

Switzerland will apply a dividend tax. The maximum allowed tax for a U.S. citizen is 15% but that limit requires the broker to claim the limit at the source. The ADR custodian will charge a small fee that will be taken out of the dividend.   

The last U.S. annual dividend was $3.325+ per share.

Last Ex Dividend: 3/8/22 

Last Discussed: Item # 4.C. Added 2 NVS at $78.3; 1 at $76.2; 1 at $74.56 (9/27/22 Post) 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): Financial Report Q3 2022-SEC Filing. 

NVS reports in USDs. 

Core E.P.S. = $1.58 (excluding Roche core income impact, core E.P.S. grew 10% in constant currency)

Free Cash Flow = $4.169B

In the previous snapshot, there is a reference to a proposed spin off of Sandoz: Novartis to spin off Sandoz generics unit to focus on innovative drugs

3rd Quarter Revenues Top 20 Innovative Medicines: 

Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3 Sold 108+ NVS at $83.66 (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $968.85, the largest single trading gain to date); Item # 1 Eliminated NVS-Sold 29 at $86.35 (10/24/18 Post)(profit snapshot $298.77); Item # 3.D Sold 10 NVS at $85.96 and 5 at $86.5-Used Commission Free Trades (10/10/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.98); Item 2.A. Sold 30 NVS at $93.85 (2/3/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $184.26); Item # 3 Sold 50 NVS at $41.86 (6/17/2009 Post)(profit snapshot +$230.94) Since those sell discussions, NVS spun out Alcon Inc. (ALC) which resulted in a significant reduction in the NVS price.  

NVS Realized Gains to Date: $1,727.47

G. Eliminated AMCR in Fidelity and Vanguard Taxable Accounts - Sold 20 at $12.05 and 10+ at $12.03: 

Quote: Amcor PLC

Proceeds: $336.36

This leaves me with 100 shares held in my Schwab taxable account. I intend to buy more shares in that account when the purchase price reduces my average cost per share. 

Amcor PLC Profile | Reuters

AMCR SEC Filings

Website: Global Packaging Solutions | Amcor

AMCR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Amcor sells factories in Russia (12/23/22)(€370M)

AMCOR EXPANDS HEALTHCARE PLATFORM IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION WITH ACQUISITION OF MDK (1/16/23)

Profit Snapshots: +$26.93

Last Discussed: Item # 3.B. Pared AMCR in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 20 at $12.65  (5/19/22 Post) 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.I. Added 10 AMCR at $11 (3/31/22 Post); Item # 2.J. Added 10 AMCR at $11.54 (2/20/22 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.125 per share

Shareholder Dividends | Amcor

Last Ex Dividend: 11/22/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): SEC Filing 

6. CDs: +$4,000

A. Bought 2 Union Bankshares 4.6% CDs Maturing on 1/30/24: 

Interest is paid monthly. 

The snapshot shows a 1 year CD maturing on the day of purchase that had a 2.2% coupon. Interest was paid at maturity. I am content as long as I can reinvest proceeds into higher yielding securities. 

Issuer: Union Bankshares Inc. (UNB) I own the common shares. 

B. Bought 2 JP Morgan 4.65% CDs Maturing on 1/21/25: 

Issuer: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 

I have a small ball position in the common stock. Item # 1.C. Bought 1 JPM at 99.88; 1 at 98.69; 1 at $97.87; 1 at $94 (10/10/20 Post) 

JPM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.