Economy:
March CPI:
Consumer Price Index Summary - 2023 M03 Results
Annual CPI: 5%, down from 6% through February
Annual Core CPI: 5.6%, up from 5.5% through February
February 2023 CPI Report: Consumer Price Index News Release - 2023 M01 Results
Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show An accurate headline for this article would be the Fed's Staff believes that a mild recession will start later this year with a recovery occurring over the next 2 years. FOMC Minutes March 21-22, 2023 at page 6
Warren Buffett says we're not through with bank failures We are never through with bank failures. The issues are whether other profitable banks will fail because of deposit runs and how serious will the credit crunch be.
Short-Term Inflation Expectations Increase; Credit Access Perceptions and Expectations Deteriorate - FRB of NEW YORK (4/10/23)("Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated in March, with the share of households reporting it is harder to obtain credit than one year ago rising and reaching a series high.")
Small Business Economics Trends- March 2023 | NFIB ( "A net 9 percent reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts")
Commercial bank lending fell by over $100B in the last two weeks ending 3/29/23. The Fed - Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States - H.8 - April 14, 2023
++++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
I have $12,000 in treasury bills that will mature on 4/18 in my Schwab account. I will redeploy $10,000 into a 2 month treasury bill that will be auctioned on 4/20. In that account, a $10K treasury bill matures on 4/20 and I am uncertain now what I will do. The default option for indecision is to move the funds into Schwab's Treasury MM fund and out of the sweep account that pays .45%.
Treasury Bills: +$3,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: +$3,000 in principal amount
Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$285.89
(consisting of $941.64 in proceeds minus $655.75 in purchases)
Weighted Average Yield Common Stock Buys: 5.41% (excludes AMKBY due to large variations in annual dividend) I am targeting a weighted average yield of >5% for weekly purchases.
Realized Gains Stocks/Stock Fund Discussed this post: +$29.7
Balanced Mutual Funds: +$100 to PRPFX (owns a lot of gold and silver bullion, high quality U.S. treasuries and corporate bonds; Swiss government bonds and some stocks)
Leveraged Bond CEFs: +$211.2 (yield at 9%)
2023 Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$31,153.41
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Putin and His Servile Orcs:
The Russian Ruble, a junk currency, has been hitting new lows against the USD. Russian Ruble to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
Who killed Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky? - BBC Newsnight - YouTube Tatarsky was a pro war blogger and a convicted bank robber. Like many military bloggers in Russia, he was highly critical of how the Russian military was conducting the war. It is of course clear that Russia can not be trusted to conduct an investigation that identifies who was behind this complex and well executed assassination.
Videos have emerged of Russian Orcs beheading Ukrainian soldiers.
Beheadings of Ukrainian soldiers purportedly shown in videos- CNN; Russian "soldiers" beheaded Ukrainian PoW. How will the world react? Vlog 343: War in Ukraine - YouTube
Father of girl who drew anti-war art extradited to Russia | The Hill Alexei Moskalyov was arrested by the Orcs after his 13 year old daughter drew a picture of Russian missiles flying at a woman and her child. Russian girl who drew anti-war sketch leaves orphanage with estranged mother The child was sent to an orphanage.
Moskalyov inexplicably fled from his house arrest to Belarus, which is no longer an independent country and is controlled by Putin. As with Russia, Belarus is a one man dictatorship that routinely violates the civil rights of its citizens in order to preserve and protect the power and wealth of the 2 dictators and a few others. Belarus: UN report details scale and patterns of human rights violations committed with impunity | OHCHR; Belarus rights abuses may amount to 'crime against humanity' - UN report | Reuters
Russia says China agreed to secretly provide weapons, leaked documents show - The Washington Post Since China IMO gave Russia the green light to invade Ukraine, I would expect Xi to assist Russia by providing weapons.
Russian spetsnaz units gutted by Ukraine war, U.S. leak shows - The Washington Post It takes about 4 years to train the spetsnaz soldiers. Putin decided to use those soldiers in regular combat operations and the units were decimated by the Ukranians.
Ukraine War: At least eight dead, including a toddler, after Russian attacks in Sloviansk | Euronews; SLOVYANSK MISSILE ATTACKS for EASTER. Orcs will be orcs. Vlog 346: War in Ukraine - YouTube The Orcs directed a missile at an apartment building. Death Toll From Russian Strike in Sloviansk, Ukraine, Climbs - The New York Times
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Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk and the Abortion Pill:
Kacsmaryk is a far right Trump appointed Federal District Court Judge who is the only federal judge who sits in Amarillo, Texas, a division of the Northern District of Texas. Amarillo | Northern District of Texas | United States District Court Republicans are forum shopping by filing lawsuits in Amarillo, knowing that Judge Kacsmaryk will decide the case.
I am expecting a deluge of legally unhinged decisions from Trump appointed judges. The abortion pill decision is just the latest.
Pfizer CEO and Other Drug Company Leaders Condemn Texas Abortion Pill Ruling - The New York Times Kacsmaryk was the first judge to invalidate a FDA drug approval over the FDA's objection. His decision is totally untethered from any legal precedent which is becoming an increasingly common occurrence among Trump appointed judges.
Mifepristone Is Safe. A Court Ruling Reducing Access to It Is Dangerous - Scientific American
If the court's ruling stands on appeal, any FDA drug approval can be reversed by a federal judge based on personal biases and pseudo science. New ruling out of Texas sets "dangerous precedent for undermining the FDA"; In Support of the FDA's Authority to Regulate Medicines; Texas Judge Cosplaying as Medical Expert Has Consequences Beyond Abortion Pill
The decision reveals a deep religious hostility to abortions, rather than a willingness to engage in sound judicial reasoning even on a superficial level.
There were in his opinion truly bizarre references to phony science which is being picked apart by lawyers. A Completely Bogus Study Is at the Heart of the Ruling to Ban the Abortion Pill | The New Republic;
Abortion Pill Ruling: Read Annotated Excerpts From F.D.A. Case - The New York Times; The Shocking Lack of Science in the Ruling Banning a Common, Safe Abortion Drug; Abortion pill ruling cited flawed science - The Washington Post
Collectively, and particularly the deeply reactionary republican Justices on the Supreme Court, the republican judges will take the country back to 19th century, a result that is probably written in stone now and may take at least 3 decades to reverse, an optimistic time period that would require true conservatives and moderates to wake up now and vote accordingly in every state and federal election for the next 3+ decades.
The ruling is being appealed to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals which is called the most "conservative" in the U.S., but that is not the appropriate terminology to describe the republican judges sitting on that court.
A panel of 3 republican 5th Circuit appellate judges, two of whom were appointed by Trump (Kurt D. Engelhardt and Andrew Oldham), refused to stay the injunction prohibiting retail pharmacies from filling prescriptions. In what those judges called a "close call" on a stay, the appellate judges lifted the stay for only abortion pills directly administered by a physician during a patient's third visit. Appeals court keeps abortion pill on the market but sharply limits access - POLITICO
If a person would like to have access to that pill, either through the mail or by prescription, and voted for republicans in the past, then you can only blame yourself.
++
Trump and His Party:
A. Some of the Most Recent Deranged Don Rants:
In an interview last week, Don the Authoritarian, the leader of the republican party, stated that Putin, Xi and Kim Jong Un are "top of the line". 'Top of the line': Trump praises 'brilliant' Xi, Kim Jong-Un, Putin - YouTube
Demagogue Don is going to fire all of the Soros appointed District Attorneys which apparently includes state DAs. Trump Drops New Rant Promising To FIRE 'Radical Marxist Prosecutors Destroying America' As Probes Close In
Trump did not like the comments from his former AG Bill Barr who said that Trump is going to be indicted in the documents case:
On the same day, Donald published the following tweet providing further confirmation, when none is needed of course, about his abundantly clear mental condition:
President: Republican primary : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight Trump is extending his lead over DeSantis as the preferred republican candidate for President in 2024. 81% of republicans believe Donald is honest and almost as many view him as a role model for their children.
(B) Justice Clarence Thomas-Ethics:
Other Justices have accepted subsidized trips. Scalia Took Dozens of Trips Funded by Private Sponsors - The New York Times Scalia received 258 subsidized trips during his tenure.
Kavanaugh had 83 complaints filed against him. A panel of appellate court judges was selected by CJ Roberts to investigate. The panel acknowledged the seriousness of the ethical complaints but had no choice but to dismiss all of them, not on the merits, but on a lack of authority over Supreme Court Justices. Federal Panel Of Judges Dismisses All Ethics Complaints Against Brett Kavanaugh-NPR
A Supreme Court Justice can be charged with crime, tried and convicted but can only be removed from office by impeachment.
What is a personal hospitality "gift" exempt from financial disclosure. Judicial Conference Response to Senator Whitehouse's Letter of 2-21-2023 (Final).pdf:
The Republican Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’s Billionaire Benefactor Collects Hitler Artifacts - Washingtonian Collecting Nazi artifacts does not make one a Nazi, but is certainly odd and exceedingly cringe worthy, and not something that a person would put on their resume. I had an uncle who collected Nazi artifacts and he was a member of the John Birch Society. He was the only person that I have known who did so.
Secret Garden - D Magazine Harlan Crow's garden, referred to a “historical nod to the facts of man’s inhumanity to man,” reportedly has statues of Lenin, Stalin, Tito, Casto, Felix Dzerzhinsky (the first commissar of the Soviet secret police), and Nicolae Ceaușescu. Why would any American put statues of those people in a garden?
Clarence Thomas Didn’t Disclose Harlan Crow Real Estate Deal — ProPublica This is a new one and is more problematic IMO for Thomas than the failure to disclose at least some of the personal hospitality "gifts". Possibly, this criminal statute may come into play, if interpreted to include wilfully concealing a material fact that is required to be disclosed to the government. 18 U.S. Code § 1001
Clarence Thomas' Criminal Behavior on Financial Disclosure
Article III, §1 of the Constitution provides that federal judges can serve for as long as they like, but that service requires "good Behavior". It is not clear whether "good Behavior" requires a lesser standard for impeachment than "high crimes and misdemeanors" applicable to elected federal officials. At a minimum, a judge can not be removed due to differences of opinion about constitutional legal principles. Overview of Good Behavior Clause | Constitution Annotated | Congress.gov | Library of Congress
C. The Anti-Democracy Party in Tennessee:
On 4/10, the Nashville city council voted unanimously to return Justin Jones back to the State House of Representatives, pending a special election that will be held later this year. Nashville Council Votes to Return Expelled Lawmaker Justin Jones to House - The New York Times Jones was one of the two black legislators expelled by the all white anti-democracy party a few days ago. Jones graduated from Fisk University in Nashville and is currently enrolled in the Vanderbilt Divinity School. He earned the ire of some Tennessee republicans before he was elected to the state House while advocating for the removal of Nathan Bedford Forrest's bust from the state capitol rotunda. Forrest was a founding member of the Ku Klux Klan.
{I have determined that Jones resorted to speaking with a small bullhorn after the House Speaker turned off his microphone. The common sense approach to the temporary breach of decorum, which would have required the Tennessee House republicans to act with a modicum of intelligence, would have been to ignore it and attribute the breach to an understandable reaction to 3 nine year olds being slaughtered with an assault rifle and the refusal of Tennessee republicans to engage in any effort at gun reform}
Jones' attorneys, which include the former AG Eric Holder, warned the republicans that any further effort to retaliate further against Nashville or Jones would require redress through litigation. Letter to House Speaker Cameron dated 4/10/23 from Eric Holder;
Ousted Tennessee Rep. Justin Pearson ‘Appalled’ GOP May Cut County's Funds (Pearson is from Shelby County, the only area where the republican party will allow Democrats to elect a congressional representative, since they have so far been unable to figure out how to disenfranchise the large African American population in Memphis without creating a competitive seat in another currently safe republican congressional district)
Pearson was returned to the House by the Shelby County Commission that consists of 9 Democrats and 4 Republicans. The vote was unanimous since the 4 republicans boycotted the meeting. Second of two expelled Black lawmakers is reinstated in Tennessee House - The Washington Post; Justin J. Pearson: Memphis sends Pearson back to the Tennessee House days after GOP lawmakers ousted him
The republican House Speaker Cameron had compared the protest regarding gun violence, which occurred a few days after 3 nine year old children were slaughtered in their Nashville school with an assault rifle, to the 1/6 insurrection that attempted to prevent the duly elected President from assuming office.
After preventing Nashville from electing a moderate democrat to Congress through a racial and political gerrymander that disenfranchised Nashville's entire African American population in congressional elections, and then imposing on the city 3 Trump republican congressman as their representatives, Trump's anti-democracy party has taken other efforts to retaliate against Nashville's moderation including proposed legislation that would take away some funding support for the Nashville Convention Center, an effort to change the composition of the Nashville City Council and other measures to interfere with Nashville's self governance as a major U.S. city. Lt. Gov. McNally (R) pitches defunding Nashville's convention hall - Axios Nashville; Judges block Tennessee move to cut Nashville council in half (4/11/23).
Leaked audio shows Tennessee GOP infighting over expulsion of Black lawmakers | The Hill Tennessee republicans were outraged that 1 republican, Jody Barrett, changed his vote on expelling a white woman Gloria Johnson, whose expulsion failed by 1 vote. The republicans were concerned that expelling 2 young black representatives would look racist. One of republicans, Jason Zachery, complained bitterly that some people were calling him a racist as a result. Zachery believes that the democrats are destroying the republic and the very foundation of America.
'I hear racist statements all the time': Lawmaker on Tennessee State House
No One Should Be That Shocked by What’s Happening in Tennessee - POLITICO
D. Tucker Carlson, Fox Discovery Sanctions, Matt Gaetz and Assault Rifles/Murders:
Fox "news" host Tucker Carlson asserted that Pearson talked like a "sharecropper" and had previously talked like he was "crypto white kid" before making a transition to 60 year dead civil rights leaders, referring apparently to Martin Luther King. Tucker Carlson Might Have Just Delivered His Most Racist Fox News Rant Yet It is just Carlson's juvenile way of belittling people, which he views as witty, who do not adhere closely to his white nationalist agenda and views.
Louisville, Kentucky shooting: As police investigate what led up to massacre that left 5 dead, several victims remain hospitalized | CNN The gunman used an AR-15 style assault rifle. This was the 146th mass shooting in the U.S. Gun Violence Archive The Louisville shooter legally bought his assault rifle on 4/4/23.
Fox News Sanctioned by Judge for Withholding Evidence in Dominion Case - The New York Times; Judge in Dominion case sanctions Fox for withholding evidence, plans to appoint special master to probe possible misconduct | CNN Business
Matt Gaetz (R-FL) Goes on Unhinged Rant on Louisville Shooting
Unsealed documents from the Daniel Perry case show he made comments on social media about killing protesters and Muslims, Houston Chronicle reports Perry was convicted of murdering a BLM protester. Shortly after that conviction, Governor Greg Abbott (R) stated that he wanted to pardon Perry before the appellate process even started, claiming that the charge and conviction by jury were part of a woke conspiracy hatched by "progressives".
E. Kristina Karamo Takes the Republican Leadership Position in Michigan:
The new chairperson of the Michigan Republican party, Kristina Karamo, is best known for advancing fact free conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. Michigan G.O.P. Installs Kristina Karamo, an Election Denier, as Leader - The New York Times (2/18/23)
Among her many other claims, Ms. Karamo believes Beyonce is a tool of Satan and was recruiting Black Americans to paganism with one of her albums. Michigan Republican says Cardi B and Billie Eilish are tools of Satan; Republican concludes popstars Cardi B, Billie Eilish, Beyoncé, Ariana Grande are all in league with the Devil
Ms. Karamo believes that satanic possession can be transmitted by sexual interecourse. It is unclear whether she believes Satan can penetrate a condom.
In her worldview, the BLM leaders are "Marxist witches" and were performing "Satanic Rituals".
Only a select few, including the leader of Michigan's republicans, know that yoga is one of Satan's tools. Kristina Karamo: Beyoncé, Cardi B, Korean drama, and yoga are tools of Satan | Media Matters for America
Among Michigan republicans, she also earned considerable favor by asserting that evolution is “one of the biggest scams ran on us in human history”. Whenever I hear that kind of claim, I am reminded of a photo in the NYT that showed an exhibit at Kentucky's Creation Museum depicting Adam and Eve walking with the dinosaurs. A. A. Gill on Kentucky's Creation Museum | Vanity Fair; Adam and Eve in the Land of the Dinosaurs | WIRED
Tenure of new Michigan GOP chair who spread Beyoncé paganism conspiracy theory is off to a rocky start Kristina Karamo: Beyoncé, Cardi B, Korean drama, and yoga are tools of Satan | Media Matters for America;
Michigan GOP tries to tie gun reforms to Holocaust, draws backlash
Donald needs to grab Karamo (a non-sexual grab in this context) as his VP before other republican candidates snap her up. Kristina and Donald have already done the required mind meld.
There is a difference between Tennessee and Michigan. The later is a swing state where republican behavior, comments and positions are turning off moderate and independent voters, thereby making it even more likely that democrats will make more gains in 2024 after winning 3 statewide offices in 2022 (Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State). Tennessee legislators, on the other hand, are doing what their base wants, and the base represents a clear majority of Tennessee voters. Failure to act in a certain manner will only result in Tennessee republican politicians being primaried by someone further to the far right in the republican party.
Last Week in the Republican Party - April 11, 2023 - YouTube
F. Michael Cohen/Trump; Elon Musk:
Trump sues Michael Cohen for $500 million, alleging ex-attorney breached his contract Trump has a long history of using litigation as an intimidation tactic. Legal affairs of Donald Trump - Wikipedia; Dive into Donald Trump's thousands of lawsuits - USA TODAY (4,095 lawsuits as of July 2016); How Trump Survived Decades of Legal Trouble | Time; President Trump Is a Libel Bully Again and It’s Worse: He’s Suing from the White House - Media Law Resource Center
NPR quits Twitter after being falsely labeled as 'state-affiliated media'-NPR
Musk response:
Elon Musk's Free-Speech Charade Is Over - The Atlantic
The GOP is the antithesis of a conservative party and can not now be changed into a conservative party.
+++
1. Small Ball Purchases:
A. Started BCBP - Bought 20 at $11.94; 10 at $11.5 - Schwab Taxable Account:
Quote: BCB Bancorp Inc. (BCBP)
Cost: $353.8
BCBP is a bank holding company. Its operating subsidiary, BCB Community Bank, "has 27 branch offices in Bayonne, Edison, Hoboken, Fairfield, Holmdel, Jersey City, Lyndhurst, Maplewood, Monroe Township, Newark, Parsippany, Plainsboro, River Edge, Rutherford, South Orange, Union, and Woodbridge, New Jersey, and three branches in Hicksville and Staten Island, New York."
Recent Press Release: BCB Bank CEO Highlights the Bank’s Stability, Strong and Diversified Sources of Funding
BCBP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (2 estimates, 2023 average E.P.S. at $2.52)
Diluted 2022 GAAP E.P.S. = $2.58
Average Cost per share: $11.79 (30 shares)
TTM P/E at $11.79 per share and $2.58 annual E.P.S. = 4.57
Dividend: Quarterly at $.16 per share ($.64 annually)
Yield at $11.74 = 5.45%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/22): SEC Filing
E.P.S. = $.69
NIM: 3.76%, up from 3.44% in the 2021 4th Q.
Efficiency Ratio: 51.33%
NPL Ratio: .17%
Coverage Ratio: 633.6%
Tangible Book Value per share: $15.65
Discount to Tangible Book at $11.74 = 24.99%
Owned Securities:
Yield are better than most |
Unrealized Loss as of 12/31/22: $7.887M |
Noninterest bearing: 21.83% of the total, low compared to other banks |
As with other banks, government deposits are collateralized in some way. For this bank, 24.9M of those deposits have owned securities as collateral and another $230M are collateralized by a municipal letter of credit with the FHLB (p. 55). Uninsured deposits that have that kind of collateral are not likely to be withdrawn based on fear.
B. Added to BHK - Bought 10 at $10.77:
Quote: BlackRock Core Bond Trust Overview
Sponsor's website: Core Bond Trust | BHK
New Average cost per share: $11.5 (58+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.0745 (some ROC support)
Yield at New AC: 7.77%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/13/23 (owned all as of)
Data Date of 10/10/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $11.28
Closing Market Price: $10.91
Discount: -3.28%
Sourced: BHK-CEF Connect
I discussed this highly leveraged bond CEF in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 1.H. Added to BHK - Bought 10 at $10.92 (4/8/23 Post)
C. Restarted BTZ - Bought 10 at $10.35:
Quote: BlackRock Credit Allocation Income Trust Overview - A leveraged bond CEF
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Eliminated BTZ- Sold Remaining 37+ Shares at $14.88 (1/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $149.05)
Unlike BHK, which I discussed last week, BTZ has a significant exposure to junk rated bonds.
Credit Quality:
Sponsor's website: BlackRock Credit Allocation Income Trust | BTZ
Leveraged at 35.37% as of 3/31/23
Number of Holdings: 1,591 (highly diversified)
BTZ 2022 Annual Report (positions start at page 83)
Data Date of 4/6/23 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $11.53
Closing Market Price: $10.35
Discount: -10.23%
Average 3 Year Discount: -5.8%
Sourced: BTZ - CEF Connect
Dividend: Monthly at $.0839 per share (some ROC support)
Yield at $10.35: 9.73%
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 1.J. Pared BTZ-Sold Highest Cost Lots - 90 at $13.76; 17 at $13.93; 3 at $13.97; 15 at $14.14 (6/13/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.09); Sold 103+ BTZ at $13.4+ (5/8/17 Post)(unnumbered entry/profit snapshot = $34.37; post contains profits snapshots of trades between 2010 - 2016 totaling +$789.34)
D. Added 5 AMKBY at $8.31:
I will continue averaging down in 5 share lots until I hit 100 shares. This is a long term holding for me.
USD Quote: A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S ADR
Cost: $41.55
I discussed this stock in my last post and nothing further to add here. Item # 1.C. Added 10 AMKBY at $8.65 (4/8/23 Post)
New AC per share: $12.06 (65 shares)
E. Added to CIZN - Bought 5 at $12.19-Fidelity Taxable Account:
Quote: Citizens Holding Co. (CIZN)
Cost: $60.95
Last Discussed: Item # 1.K. Eliminated CIZN in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 25 at $16.63 (2/13/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.5) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filing The report was better than previous ones that I have discussed here.
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.C. Added to CIZN in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $13.14; 5 at $12.75 (1/3/23 Post); Item # 5.C. Started CIZN in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $14.1 (11/22/22 Post)
New Average cost per share: $13.25 (25 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually)
CIZN Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at $13.25 = 7.245%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/16/23
2022 GAAP E.P.S. = $1.47
TTM P/E at $13.25 Using $1.47 = 9.01
TTM P/E at $12.19 Purchase Price = 8.29
Investment Securities:
Unrealized loss as of 12/31/22: $72.437M, amortized cost at $649.051M
Deposits:
Noninterest bearing: $299.12M or 26.55% of the total.
CIZN Realized Gains: $503.29
F. Added to PNNT - Bought 5 at $5.11:
Quote: PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT) - A BDC
Cost: $25.55
Website: Investors | PennantPark
Investment category: Lottery Ticket Basket - Deservedly Hated BDC
Management: External
Last Discussed: Item # 4.C. Started PNNT in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $5.85 (1/16/23 Post)
Net Asset Value per share history: Unfavorable
12/31/22: $7.11 10-Q at page 4
12/31/21: $10.11 10-Q at page 4
12/31/20: $8.79 10-Q at page 4
12/31/15 $ 9.02
9/30/15 $ 9.82
12/31/14 $10.43
9/20/14 $11.03
12/31/13 $10.8
12/31/12 $10.38
12/31/10 $11.14
9/30/10 $10.69
12/31/09 $11.86
12/31/08 $10.24
12//31/07 $12.07
IPO at $15 Prospectus April 2007
Dividend: Quarterly at $.185 per share ($.74 annually)
PennantPark Investment Corporation (PNNT) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
I am currently reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at New AC: 13.21%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/15/23
Dividend History: Unfavorable
The quarterly dividend was $.28 in 2016.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/22): SEC Filing
Net Investment Income per share: $.16
As of 12/31/22, the "portfolio totaled $1,196.0 million, which consisted of $661.2 million of first lien secured debt, $130.8 million of second lien secured debt, $148.6 million of subordinated debt (including $95.4 million in PSLF) and $255.4 million of preferred and common equity (including $53.8 million in PSLF). Our debt portfolio consisted of 96% variable-rate investments and 4% fixed-rate investments. As of December 31, 2022, we had two portfolio companies on non-accrual, representing 2.7% and 1.1% of our overall portfolio on a cost and fair value basis, respectively. Overall, the portfolio had net unrealized depreciation of $167.5 million as of December 31, 2022. Our overall portfolio consisted of 125 companies with an average investment size of $9.6 million, and a weighted average yield on interest bearing debt investments of 11.9%"
G. Added 5 BRKL at $10.49:
2022 Annual Report at page 22 |
This is an average up from some small ball buys in 2020.
Last Buy Discussion: Item #1.B. Added 5 BRKL at $8.85; 2 at $8.59; 1 at $8.23 (10/17/20 Post)
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.E. Bought 10 BRKL at $9.51; 5 at $9.31 (8/22/20 Post)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Tangible Book Value per share as of 12/31/22: $10.8
Average cost before add: $9.14 (20 shares)
Average cost per share after add: $9.41 (25 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.135 per share ($.54 annually), last raised from $.125 effective for the 2022 second quarter payment.
Brookline Bancorp, Inc. (BRKL) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 5.74%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/9/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/22): SEC Filing
Comparisons are to the 2021 4th quarter.
E.P.S. = $.39, up from $.37
NIM: 3.81%, up from 3.52%
Efficiency Ratio: 53.1%, up slightly from 52.23% (down is good)
NPA Ratio: .17%, down from .39%.
Charge Off Ratio: .02%, down from .12%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $10.8
ROTE: 14.48%
Investment Securities as of 12/31/22:
Page F-24 |
Amortized Cost at $733.978M
Value at $656.766M
Unrealized Loss: $77.493M
Weighted Average Interest Rate: 2.06%
The bank did sell $78.8M in securities for a $5.785M loss which reduced the amount of unrealized losses as of 12/31/22.
Page F-28 |
Noninterest bearing: 27.64% of the total
$205.6M in deposits have collateral.
H. Added 5 ONB at $13.7:
Quote: Old National Bancorp (ONB)
Cost: $68.5
New AC per Share: $14.05 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually)
Yield at New AC = 3.99%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/28/23
Last Discussed: I discussed this stock in my last post Item # 1.B. Restarted ONB - Bought 10 at $14.23 (4/8/23 Post)
I. Added $100 to PRPFX at $47.98:
Quote: PRPFX | Permanent Portfolio Overview
Sponsor's website: The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Annual Report - FY ending 1/31/23
I add to this balanced mutual fund whenever the spirit moves me.
Allocations:
The "Swiss Franc Assets" are Swiss government bonds which I view as a "safe haven" currency play flowing from owning high quality Swiss government bonds price in CHFs.
As of 1/31/23 |
Average cost per share: $40.81 (233+ shares)
Dividends: Paid annually at a variable rate
I have been reinvesting the dividends, paid annually, and will continue to do so.
I view this fund as addressing the sh-- hits the fan scenario. Overall returns have not been inspiring but the rally in precious metals has contributed to a positive YTD return.
Realized Gains to Date: $899.1 (snapshots in Item # 3.J) The last elimination was in 2017. After restarting the position, I have not sold any shares.
2. Corporate Bonds:
A. Bought 2 Charles Schwab 3.75% SU Maturing on 4/1/24 at a Total Cost of 98.211:
Issuer: Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW)
SCHW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
2022 Annual Report (debt listed at page 95)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
This is a very actively traded bond.
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.66%
Current Yield at TC = 3.77%
B. Bought 1 US Bancorp 3.7% SU Maturing on 1/30/24 at a Total Cost of 98.927:
Issuer: U.S. Bancorp (USB)
USB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Credit Rating: A2/A+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.078%
Current Yield at TC = 3.74%
3. Treasury Bills: $3,000 in principal amount
A. Bought 3 Treasury Bills at 4/10/23 Auction:
Matures on 7/13/23
91 Day Bill
Interest: +$37.76
Investment Rate: 5.128%
P. 69 Annual Report |
What I thought curious yesterday was the VIX coming down, while the market was down.
ReplyDeleteAlso how US can elect officials who are bat-sh crazy in need of medication. Has it ever been this bad before? I hope so to give hope that there's a way back to better. Beyonce???
Land: The VIX has fallen below 20 and declined yesterday even though the S & P fell which is an anomaly that occasionally occurs.
DeleteCBOE Volatility Index
17.07 -0.73 -4.10%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix?mod=search_symbol
Temporary movement below 20 is expected during an Unstable Vix Pattern. Generally speaking, that is a time when I would pare my stock allocation after buying during the VIX spike, at least until the formation of a SVP.
I am basically in a neutral position over the past several weeks, taking on some insignificant risk in the equity REIT and regional bank sectors that have been hit hard.
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It needs to be emphasized that the Michigan republicans elected Karamo as their leader knowing about her past statements. This is not something new and received widespread publicity in Michigan when she ran as the GOP's nominee for Secretary of State in 2022. Electing her as their leader says more about the republicans in Michigan than Karamo.
I haven't done much lately with stocks. I'm 25% in the market with most in ETFs. Not worth paying tax on gains here since I'll need these funds in the market longer term.
DeleteRead a little over the weekend. FG's not sure where it's going. Others are equally baffled. Maybe it's what it feels like before a crash.
I've been saying that employment is up because there's 1 million less of us from covid. But if so, there'd be spending for 1 million less too. That hasn't been reflected in consumer spending.
The VIX fall means there's less futures betting. It may reflect that there's less clarity. Or be simply a one day anomaly.
First trip home to get groceries. I topped $200 at my usual store for the 1st time in a single trip.
Land: I am doing next to nothing in both the bond and stock markets.
DeleteRegional bank stocks are starting to report with a deluge starting tomorrow. So far, the reports are okay. If the regional bank reports on balance show that investors have overreacted to the SVB and Signature bank failures, I will step up my allocation to those stocks.
The report from One report from Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) was encouraging.
$30.10 +$0.61 (+2.07%)
As of 10:22AM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MBWM?p=MBWM
E.P.S. was reported at $1.31 with the consensus at $1.16 and up from $.73 in the 2022 first quarter.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1042729/000143774923010501/ex_501606.htm
NIM: 4.28%, up from 2.57%
Efficiency ratio: 51.69%
NPL Ratio: .17%
Charge Off Ratio: Net Recovery
ROTE: 18.76%
Deposits: Stable
"Total deposits, consisting entirely of local deposits, were $3.60 billion at March 31, 2023, representing a decline of $115 million, or 3.1 percent, from December 31, 2022. The reduction in local deposits primarily reflected a customary level of customers’ tax and bonus payments and partnership distributions, as well as transfers to the sweep account product."
The CME FedWatch Tool currently has the probability at 83.33% that the Fed will hike the FF rate by .25% on 5/3. That would take the FF range to 5%-5.25%. I would assign a 100% probability given the last inflation and jobs reports, and no lingering concern that a hike will cause a banking crisis.
ReplyDeleteThere is something very odd about the short term treasury bill curve given the current FF rate and likely .25% increase in about 2 weeks.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202304
1 Month T Bill: 3.95%
2 Month T Bill: 5.03%
3 Month T Bill: 5.16%
Goldman Sachs opined that the Treasury may run out of options in early June without a debt limit increase.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/debt-ceiling-deadline-limit-default-congress-democrats-republicans-economy-biden-2023-4
I would attribute the lower 1 month bill rate to concerns that the House republican will cause a debt default.
If GS is right, the 2 month bill that will be auctioned tomorrow may mature when the treasury has run out of options to pay the principal amount of maturing debt.
It is certain that the 1 month T Bill, which will also be auctioned tomorrow, will be paid off at maturity.
This would explain a crowding into the 1 month bill and the significant percentage yield difference compared to the 2 month T Bill.
I don't see how the democrats can agree to the House republican demands, assuming they are ever able to agree among themselves and pass by 1 or more votes a budget.
In exchange for a debt limit increase for 1 year or probably several months less, the democrats have to agree to republican policy objectives that they would have a zero chance at passing without holding the debt limit hostage and using the threat of default to extort an agreement from the democrats.
Then, if the democrats relent and give them most of republican policy objectives, the extortion will happen again, sometime in early 2024, rinse and repeat over and over, for as long as the republicans have a majority in the House, no matter how slender.
If the extortion bears fruit, the House republicans would have in effect seized control over the government with a few vote majority only in the House, notwithstanding a democrat controlled Senate and a Democrat President. And they would have done something that they were unwilling to do when Trump was President as they voted for debt limit increases.
The republicans came within two days of causing a debt default in 2011, and the result was an S & P downgrade of U.S. debt. The House republicans in power now are exceedingly more irresponsible than the republicans that had control over the House in 2011.
Possibly the wildest trading today was in the 1 month treasury bill. This is the first time that I could make that statement and not be called crazy.
ReplyDeleteU.S. 1 Month Treasury Bill
3.328% -0.388%
DAY RANGE 3.145% - 3.748%
Last Updated: Apr 20, 2023 4:57 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd01m?countrycode=bx
As noted in my last comment, the reason why the 1 month bill trades so far out of line with the 2 month is the concern that the extraordinary measures being used by the U.S. treasury to pay bills may be exhausted in early June and the republicans will cause a U.S. government debt default before the 2 month T Bill matures.
Treasury Auctions Today: Investment Rates
28 Day Bill: 3.251%
56 Day Bill: 4.968% (matures 6/20/23)
This stuff is interesting. The market's reacting. I tend to agree, I'm not convinced it will be resolved by the deadline.
DeleteI think I'll buy some 2 months. If gvt can't pay they'll pay eventually. But it's not enough more to matter much.
Aren't rates generally going up when the Fed raises again...?
Land: The short term treasury bills will generally reflect market expectations about increases in the FF rate before the FED acts. So generally, I would expect the 3 month T Bill IR to be near the midpoint of 5% to 5.25% which is the currently expected range after the next FED meeting. The 3 month T Bill closed yesterday with a 5.12% yield.
Deletehttps://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202304
The 1 month T Bill yield is extremely abnormal given the current FF range of 4.75% to 5%. The only explanation IMO is increased concern that the government might default before that bill matures, causing a delay in the principal payment.
A U.S. debt default will have long lasting adverse impact on refinancing costs and the status of the USD as a reserve currency. Notwithstanding the obvious harm to the U.S., the House Republicans are capable IMO of causing a debt default, being much crazier (e.g. MTG) and far more irresponsible than the House Republicans who almost caused a default in 2011.
It would be mistake for the Democrats to agree to the republican extortion effort. The GOP's proposal would increase the debt limit $1.5T or until March 31,2024, whichever occurred first. Then there would be another extortion effort and so on. The proposal requires the democrats to accept republican policy objectives that are anathema to them.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/debt-ceiling-house-republicans-bill-limit-save-grow-act/
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/20/house-gop-debt-limit-plan-inflation-reduction-act-00092891
This kind of republican extortion effort occurs only when there is a democrat President. Massive increases in the debt limit were passed with bipartisan support 3 times during Trump's four years.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/24/politics/mccarthy-democrats-debt-ceiling-fact-check/index.html
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2023/04/atlo-bcbp-ccne-cvbf-htbk-mbwm-mtb-stba.html