AOD, ASBPRF, BBDC, CAG, COLB, CTOPRA, RNW:CA, SBSI, TRP

Economy: 

June 2023 CPI: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2023 M06 Results

Annual CPI: 3%, the lowest annual increase since March 2021 and down from 4% through May

Annual Core CPI: 4.8%, down from 5.3% through May. 

Core CPI Monthly Increase: .2%, down from .4%

Annual Shelter: 7.8% with owners equivalent rent at 7.8% and weighted at 24.497%. The total unadjusted shelter "expense", which includes actual paid rents, increased .5% month-to-month, up from .4%. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category - 2023 M06 Results  The annual shelter "expense" was 7.9% through May. 

PPI June 2023: Wholesale prices rise less than expected Wholesale prices were up only .1% in June, close to disinflation.  Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2023 M06 Results The PPI for final demand had declined .4% in May. "On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 0.1 percent for the 12 months ended in June."

Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income-St. Louis Fed

Personal Saving Rate-St. Louis Fed

Households; Owners' Equity in Real Estate, Level -St. Louis Fed

15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Average in the United States-St. Louis Fed

GDPNow- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: Estimate for second quarter real GDP growth was at 2.3% as of 7/10/23

The CME FedWatch Tool has the probability at 93% that the FED will raise the FF rate by .25% when it meets on 7/26. 

The current forecast for December 2024 points to significant rate cuts occuring during that year: 

The current probability is at 74.3% that the FF range will then be at 3.75-4% or lower. The probability that the FF range will be at 5%-5.25% or higher in December 2023  is at 79%. 

++++

Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post: 

Corporate Bonds: $8,000 in principal amount

Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $8,000 in principal amount

CDs: $1,000

Inflow U.S. Common Stocks/Stock Funds: +$778.74  (weighted average yield of  8.81% excluding 3 TRP share purchase whose dividends are paid in CADs and converted into USDs)

Canadian Stock (RNW:CA): Proceeds at C$1,950 (realized gain C$226)

Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$684.26  (valuing RNW:CA proceeds at US$1,463)

Equity Preferred Stocks: $252.9 (yield at 8.71%)

2023 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$31,018.24

The primary cause for the stock reduction is the risk free rate of return taking into account my financial objectives that emphasize capital preservation with income generation. 

+++

Putin and His Servile Orcs: 

'Losing the 21st century': Fareed examines the state of Russian society - YouTube

Eight killed in Russian strike in Lyman-BBC News 

I have not recently heard Putin making the asinine claim that the invasion was going according to plan. Ukraine invasion: Vladimir Putin insists Russia's advance 'going to plan' as he praises soldiers as 'real heroes' -Sky News (March 2023); Russian Invasion of Ukraine: How Putin lost in 10 days | Imperial War Museums

Opinion: As NATO shows unity, Putin has himself to thank | CNN Turkey dropped its opposition to Sweden joining this defensive alliance. Turkey clears the way for Sweden to join NATO | CNN The Orc invasion of Ukraine for the purpose of toppling the democratically elected government has strengthened the NATO defensive alliance and has led to Finland and Sweden requesting membership.   

Russia Failing Injured Soldiers, 50% Preventable Deaths: UK Intel Russia has averaged 400 casualties per day since launching its invasion more than 500 days ago. In many cases, Russia does not even make an effort to treat injured soldiers. When an effort is made to provide medical assistance, it  is rendered too late or is just insufficient for the injuries.  

The Worst Thing for Russia's Economy Isn't Sanctions. It's Putin.

The Russian ruble is a junk currency. US Dollar to Russian Ruble Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

Major General Ivan Popov, commander of Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army, was summarily dismissed after accusing the defense ministry of betraying Russian soldiers by failing to provide adequate support.  Russia's missing generals reveal cracks in faltering military | CNN It is a rarity for such a Russian senior officer to speak out in this manner even if the conditions leading to criticism were dire and had been so for a long time.  

Top Russian general LT. General Oleg Tsokov, 'liquidated' by Storm Shadow missile in Ukraine The Ukrainians targeted a hotel in the coastal town of Berdyansk that was known to house Russia's top brass. That Ukrainian town is located on the Sea of Azov roughly in between Mariupol and Melitopol, two major cities currently occupied by Russia's invasion army. The Orcs leveled almost all of Mariupol in their effort to "liberate" the Ukrainian citizens. 

Zelensky’s angry tweet on NATO membership nearly backfired, officials say - The Washington Post Ukrainians wanted a timetable for NATO admission, an obvious bridge too far. Joining NATO requires the assent of every member country which will not happen until the military confrontation with Russia is resolved. 

Part of that resolution will need to include Ukraine becoming a NATO member. 

There is certainly no reason why Ukraine would ever offer concessions to Russia in return for Russia's promise to respect the international boundaries of Ukraine. Russia made that promise in the Budapest Memorandum and violated that promise by instigating an insurrection in eastern Ukraine and annexing Crimea. 

Promises made by the Orcs are meaningless. Putin and Lavrov are two of the most untrustworthy people alive today. 

Russia has a long history of taking what it is given in a treaty and then reneging on its commitments to the other signatory. The only way to enforce an Orc promise to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine is through NATO membership as a condition for peace.  

I seriously doubt that Prigozhin is still alive. I suspect that the Belarus dictator and Putin stooge Alexander Lukashenko turned him over to the FSA soon after his plane landed in Belarus.   

Putin is not a forgive and forget kind of guy.  

If Prigozhin did attend a 3 hour meeting with Putin soon after his coup attempt, as claimed by the Orc Dmitry Peskov, he would have likely received the Al Capone baseball bat to the head treatment, or something similar, upon arrival as a warning to the other attendees. Putin's Meeting With Prigozhin After Mutiny Raises Questions I seriously doubt such a meeting happened, and nothing said by Peskov is worthy of belief.  

The WSJ and other news outlets have reported that several Russian generals, who may have known about the attempted coup and did nothing to stop it, have not been seen. That list includes General Sergei Surovikin who was last seen on 6/23.  Surovikin: Russian general was secret VIP member of Wagner, documents show | CNN

++++

Trump and His Anti-Democracy Party: 

RealClearPolitics-Election-2024 Republican Presidential Nomination

RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

#DonaldTrumpLifetimeOfLies - YouTube

The key House GOP witness accusing Biden of corruption, Gal Luft, has been arrested on multiple felony charges including trafficking in illegal arms sales to Iran and Libya, making false statements to U.S. law enforcement, and being an unregistered foreign agent for China. The republican chair of  the House Oversight Committee, James Comer (R-KY), called Luft a "very credible witness on Biden family corruption". The Hill; Whoops Comer - YouTube

‘Missing witness’ who accuses Biden of China corruption charged with being China agent-The Guardian 

Gal Luft, GOP’s Biden Witness, Is an Accused Crook

Republicans say they would like to call witness despite criminal indictment - The Washington Post

Read Full Gal Luft Indictment 

The other republican witness regarding alleged Biden corruption is deceased and was the wife of a Burisma executive. She died in 2011 or 4 years before Hunter Biden joined the Burisma Board. Giuliani Says Key Biden Informant Is Dead | The New Republic As I understand the claim, she told someone who told the now disbarred lawyer Rudy Giuliani something when he was pressuring the Ukrainians to help Donald win in 2020. Nonsensical reality creations that no rational person would rely upon are hard for me to follow. Ukraine Releases ‘Shock’ Call With Giuliani As Trump’s Impeachment Trial Begins | Time

Target letter to Trump Organization staffer signals new push in classified docs probe: Sources - ABC News

As previously discussed, the republican Supreme Justices will examine the constitutionality of state gun laws by reviewing the laws and standards that existed in the 1860s when the 14th Amendment was passed. N.Y.S. Rifle & Pistol Ass'n, Inc. v. Bruen, 142 S. Ct. 2111 (2022)(Opinion authored by Justice Thomas). This approach results from incorporating the Second Amendment into the Due Process Clause of the 14th Amendment and than using historical evidence of what laws and standards existed when that Amendment was passed in 1868. This is not a "conservative" judicial approach but a profoundly reationary one.  

An illuminating recent opinion on this subject, as it relates to state gun laws, was rendered by the Federal District Court Judge Carlton Reeves, noting there was no historical tradition in the 1860s of disarming the violent and dangerous which is true. Reeves-order.pdf. Judge Reeves reluctantly found that a state law on gun ownership by felons was consequently unconstitutional under precedent, notably the Bruen decision, recently established by the 6 republican Supreme Court justices.  

If the republican Supreme Court Justices desire to remain consistent, they will find unconstitutional a federal law restricting gun ownership by potentially violent persons who are under a protective order to stay away from someone, usually a woman who is or was a girlfriend or spouse. That case is now pending before the Supreme Court. Court ruling allows people under domestic violence restraining orders to possess guns | PBS NewsHour;

Excerpt: 5th Circuit Decision in U.S. v. Rahimi.pdf 

Supreme Court takes up case over gun ban for those under domestic violence restraining orders - CBS News The same result was reached by a Federal District Court Judge in  United States v. Perez-Gallan.  

The standard adopted by the Republican Supreme Court Justices is whether such federal restrictions on gun ownership by potentially violent persons can be found in laws and widespread beliefs that were in existence when the Constitution was adopted in 1788. No such laws then existed that would have made Rahimi's possession of firearms illegal. I seriously doubt that this reactionary approach has yet to seep into the consciousness of almost all voters. 

If the republican Justices affirm the 5th Circuit Court's decision that concluded this federal law is unconstitutional under recent Supreme Court precedent,  this will simply highlight the republican Justices commitment to a backward looking and strongly reactionary judicial philosophy that has no basis in the Constitution as written, but only in their judge created rules reflecting their far right political beliefs and religious leanings.  

Allowing someone like Mr. Rahimi, with a long history of gun violence and assaults, to remain armed based on 18th century laws and opinions about gun ownership will be viewed as outrageous by the non-Trumpster voters and will only further erode political support for the Supreme Court. It will awaken many who are currently unaware of the deeply reactionary judicial approach of the Republican Justices. Recognizing that likely result, at least 2 republican Justices will probably try to wiggle out with reasoning that is clearly inconsistent with the plain meaning of their prior decisions that they authored or joined.  

As written, the Due Process Clause of the 14th Amendment does not incorporate by reference anything. And, the first Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, John Marshall, a contemporary of the founders, made it clear in the Barron ex rel. Tiernan v. Mayor of Baltimore decision that the Bill of Rights, which includes the Second Amendment, was never meant to apply to state laws. 

(see my discussion under the heading "Due Process Clause of the 14th Amendment", 6/28/22 Post) 

The "incorporation by reference" doctrine is a judge made constitutional provision, which is necessary as a policy matter rather than in Constitutional law IMO to prevent states from violating basic constitutional freedoms which many would do given the opportunity. 

But, once it is acknowledged that incorporating constitutional rights into the 14th Amendment Due Process Clause is a judge created rule, then the interpretation assigned to what is now appropriately described as the increasingly magical Due Process Clause will change from time to time based on the political and religious beliefs of 5 Supreme Court Justices. In other words, both sides just make stuff up.  

If anyone disagrees with where the Supreme Court is now taking the country. then the only option is to never vote again for any republican running for office, starting with the State House of Representatives, through all congressional Senate and House elections to the President. That will need to be done for at least 30 years, perhaps longer. The conclusion about where the republican judges are taking the nation is not rebuttable.  

+++

1. Eliminated RNW:CA - Sold 150 at C$13.01: 

Quote: TransAlta Renewables (RNW:CA)

Proceeds: C$1,950 after C$1.5 commission. 

Profit Snapshot: +C$226

Buy Discussions for the 150 shares sold: Item # 1.A. Added 50 RNW:CA at C$11.1 (7/1/23 Post); Item # 3. Restarted RNW:CA-Bought 100 at C$11.67 (6/24/23 Post) 

TransAlta Corp. (TA:CA) and RNW have sign an agreement whereby TA will acquire the RNW shares that it does not currently own at C$13 or 1.0377 TA shares subject to a proration: 

I discussed this transaction in a recent comment. I view the offer as inadequate. In my opinion, the collapse in the RNW share price from a C$15 to C$20 trading range was caused by problems at its Kent Hills wind generation facility that required the replacement of the foundations. That problem is now almost entirely in the rear view mirror.  

Prior Sell Discussions (includes the USD priced ordinary shares traded in the U.S. Grey Market under the symbol TRSWF): 

Item # 1. Sold 100 RNW:CA at C$16.98 (1/13/22 Post)(profit C$588.5); 

Item # 1 Sold 100 TRSWF at U.S.$14.94 (11/26/21 Post)

(profit snapshot US$505.31); 

Item # 1 Sold 100 RNW:CA at C$17.92 (3/14/20 Post)(profit snapshot = C$511); 

Item # 3.B. Sold 150 RNW:CA at C$13.97 (5/5/19 Post)(profit snapshot = C$163.5)

Realized Gains:

In USDs: US$581.05 (TRSWF)

In CADs:  C$1,529  (RNW:CA)  

The stock closed last Friday at C$13.24. 

2. Corporate Bonds: 

A. Bought 2 Discover Financial Services 3.95% SU Maturing 11/6/24 at a Total Cost of 96.976: 

Issuer: Discover Financial Services (DFS) 

DFS  Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

DFS SEC Filings 

DFS SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/23 (net income of $976M, down from $1.242B in the 2022 first quarter as charge offs and the reserve for credit losses increase) 

New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB-

YTM at Total Cost: 6.35%

Current Yield at Total Cost: 4.07%

B. Bought 2 Main Street Capital 5.2% SU Maturing on 5/1/24 at a Total Cost of 98.781: 

Issuer: Main Street Capital Corp.  (MAIN)  - Externally Managed BDC 

MAIN SEC Filings 

MAIN SEC Filed Investor Presentation (May 2023)

MAIN SEC Filed Financial Report for the Q/E 3/31/23 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/23 (summary of investments starts at p. 5; this 2024 SU is the next one to mature)

New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Prospectus 

Credit Rating: BBB-

YTM at Total Cost: 6.767%

Current Yield at TC = 5.26%

I now own 4 bonds. 

I have previously eliminated my common stock position.  

C. Bought 2 Federal Realty Operating LP 3.95% SU Maturing on 1/15/24 at a Total Cost of $98.991:

Issuer: Federal Realty Investment (FRT) 

FRT SEC Filings

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/23

New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+ 

Prospectus

YTM at Total Cost: 6.01%, rounded up. 

Current yield at TC = 3.99%

I now own 6 bonds. 

D. Bought 1 Ventas Realty LTD 3.5% SU Maturing on 2/1/25 at a Total Cost of 96.12: 

Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the equity REIT Ventas Inc.  (VTR) who guarantees the note.

Prospectus 

VTR SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/30/23 (debt listed and discussed starting at page 15) 

New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 6.152%

Current Yield at TC: 3.64%

I now own 3 bonds. 

Last Bond Offering (8/21): Prospectus for $500M in a 2.5% SU maturing in 2031 

E. Bought 1 Toronto Dominion 6.05% SU Maturing on 7/12/27 at par value: 

Credit Ratings A1/A 

Interest paid quarterly. 

Offered under Fidelity's corporate notes program. 

Issuer: Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) 

TD Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

I own the common shares. My last discussion involved a pare: Item # 1.F. Pared TD - Sold 2 at $82 (1/27/22 Post) 

The bond is callable at par starting on 1/12/24 and every three months thereafter. A bond with this credit rating and coupon has not been available for purchase at par value in a very long time. 

3. Small Ball Buys: 

A. Added 40 BBDC at $7.75:

Quote: Barings BDC Inc.  (BBDC)

Cost = $310

Management: External 

BBDC SEC Filings

2022 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 36 and ends at page 70)

New Average Cost per share: $8.54 (100 shares), reduced from $9.07

Last Reported Net Asset Value per share: $11.17

Discount to NAV per share at AC of $8.54: 23.55%

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share. 

Barings BDC Inc (BBDC) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at New AC: 11.71%

Last Ex Dividend: 6/6/23 (owned 60 as of) 

Last Discussed:  Item # 2.F. Added B BBDC at $7.21 (5/20/23 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here. SEC Filing; 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/23 (summary of investments starts at page 8)

B. Added 5 CTOPRA at $18.9: 

CTO-PA

Cost: $94.5 

Issuer:  CTO Realty Growth Inc.  (CTO) - Externally Managed Equity REIT

Last Discussed: Item 5.H. Bought 5 CTOPRA at $19.85 (10/25/22 Post) 

CTO SEC Filings

Security: Prospectus 

Par value: $25

Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock senior only to common stock. 

Coupon: 6.375%

Issuer Optional Call Date: On or after 7/6/26

Stopper Clause: Standard

Dividend: Quarterly at $.3984 per share, cumulative and non-qualified. 

Average cost per share: $19.38 (10 shares)

Yield at AC : 8.22%

Last Ex Dividend: 6/7/23

I own the common shares. I last discussed a purchase in this post: Item # 2.F. Added to CTO - Bought 10 at $16.66 (6/17/23 Post). I discussed the last earnings report in that post. 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/23 and Supplemental

C.  Bought 10 ASBPRF at $15.84: 

Quote: Associated Banc-Corp (ASB-PF) 

Cost: $158.4

This is my first purchase. 

Issuer: Associated Banc-Corp. (ASB)

ASB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/23 (net income of $106M)

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/23 (investment security information starts at page 14; my grade of interest rate risk management in ASB owned securities portfolio is a C and my grading is lenient IMO.) 

Security: Equity preferred stock 

Prospectus 

Par Value $25

Coupon 5.625% 

Yield at $15.84: 8.88%, rounded up (.05625% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.406 in an annual dividend per share ÷ $15.84 Total Cost per share = 8.8763%)

Last Ex Dividend: 5/31/23

Placement in the Capital Structure: Senior only to common stock 

Dividend: Paid Quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative 

Stopper Clause: Before eliminating the preferred stock dividend, ASB would have to eliminate the cash common stock dividend and refrain from using cash to buy common stock. 

Once the preferred dividend is legally eliminated under the Stopper Clause, there is no obligation to ever pay it. The non-cumulative preferred dividend must be paid in full for future quarters when the bank starts paying a common stock cash dividend again. Mostly likely, the elimination of the common stock dividend would be associated with a FDIC seizure of the operating bank and a bankruptcy filing by the bank holding company which would render the preferred stock worthless or maybe it could be sold for a $1 or so per share for awhile. IMO, it is all or nothing for a bank holding company preferred stock.   

Maturity: None, Potentially perpetual. 

Issuer Optional Redemption: On or after 9/15/25 at par value + accrued and unpaid dividends. The optional redemption has to occur on a dividend payment date. 

I view it as unlikely that ASB will call this preferred stock given its low coupon. 

The security does not have an attractive coupon based on current interest rates. ASBPRF becomes slightly attractive when purchased at a substantial discount to par value which juices the current yield based on total cost. 

ASB Junior Bonds: I own 4 junior bonds issued by ASB that were bought this year. Item # 3.A. Bought 2 Associated Banc 4.25%  Junior Bonds Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total Cost of 92.1 (5/20/23 Post); Item # 3.B. Bought 2 Associated Banc 4.25% Junior Bonds Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.594 (1/23/23 Post); Bond Page | FINRA.org The price decline between those two purchases was related to investor fears created by the Silicon Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic bank failures.  

I also have a small ball position in the common stock. I last discussed a commons stock purchase here: Item # 1.A. Started ASB-Bought 10 at $12.35; 5 at $11.9 (8/8/20 Post)

Purchases Restriction: 5 shares lots only with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. 

Risk Evaluation IMO: High 

D. Added to COLB - Bought 2 at $20.75: 

Quote: Columbia Banking System Inc.

Cost: $41.5

Working my way slowly up to 100 shares. Each subsequent purchase must lower my average cost per share. 

COLB SEC Filings

COLB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.D. Eliminated COLB in Vanguard Taxable Account  - Sold 15 at $31.86 (2/20/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $41.56)

New Average Cost per share: $27.42 (58+ shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually), last raised from $.30 effective for the 2023 second quarter payment.  

Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Columbia Banking System Announces Increase to Common Share Dividend

I am reinvesting the dividend. 

Yield at New AC = 5.25%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/30/23

Last Discussed: Item # 1.J. Added to COLB - Bought 2 at $19.81  (6/3/23 Post) 

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.K. Added 1 COLB at $20.31 (5/27/23 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here. SEC Filing

E. Restarted CAG - Bought 5 at $33-Schwab Account: 

History this Account: 

Quote: Conagra Brands, Inc. - Packaged Foods

Cost: $165

CAG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

CAG SEC Filings

Brands | Conagra Brands

Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Eliminated CAG in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 20 at $38.27  and Item # 3.B. Eliminated CAG in Schwab Account - Sold 22+ at $38.36 (12/20/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $214.41); Item # 5.A. Eliminated CAG in Fidelity Account - Sold 18+ at $37.07 (12/6/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.4); Item # 6.B. Pared CAG in Vanguard Account - Sold 5 at $36.66 (11/8/22 Post)  

Current Position: 5 shares.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share ($1.40 annually), last raised from $.33 effective for the 2023 third quarter payment. The dividend raise was announced in the earnings release discussed below. 

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $33 = 4.24%

Last Ex Dividend: 4/27/23

Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 5/28/23): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release

Released on 7/13/23 after my purchase. This report is for CAG's 4th fiscal quarter.  

GAAP E.P.S. = $.08

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.62, down 4.6%

Consensus at $.592 per Fidelity

The main "expense" excluded from non-GAAP was related to $.55 per share in brand impairment charges.

I would characterize those adjustments as "messy".   

Revenues: $2B, up 2.2% with organic sales up 2.2% as well. 

"Diluted EPS for fiscal 2023 decreased 22.8% to $1.42, and adjusted EPS increased 17.4% to $2.77" Organic 2023 F/Y revenues increased 6.6% and free cash flow was reported at $633M.

"The 2.2% increase was driven by a 9.9% improvement in price/mix, which was partially offset by a 7.7% decrease in volume."  Price increases to recoup input inflation costs resulted in a decrease in volume, which is a fairly typical problem over the past year. Some customers switched to cheaper packaged food alternatives or reduced purchases due to price increases. 

Net interest expense increased by 12M or +12.2%. 

Fiscal 2024 E.P.S. Guidance: Adjusted at $2.7 to $2.75 and organic sales growth of only 1%. The organic sales growth guidance points to another year of volume declines. 

Using the midpoint in that guidance of $2.725, the P/E at $33 is 12.11  which is below other package food companies. 

My gut has informed me that CAG's stock price will tread water until organic sales volume starts to trend higher. Organic sales growth based on price increases has to be discounted IMO when the effect is to meaningfully lower volume. 

A number of brokerage firms reacted negatively to this report. I do not have access to these reports: (1) Bernstein cut its PT to $38 from $42; (2) BofA Global Research cut its PT to $38 from $40; (3) Jefferies cuts its PT to $35 from $40; (4) JPM cuts its PT to $38 from $39;  (5) Stifel cuts its PT to $36 from $43;  (6) Deutsche Bank cuts it PT to $35 from $36; and (7) Goldman Sachs reduced its PT to $37 from $41.

Analyst reports Available to Schwab Customers: 

S&P  (7/13/23): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $35, cut from $39

Morningstar (7/14/23): 4 stars with a fair value of $46.5

SMA Lines Weakness: 200 day at $36.25; 50 day at $34.9. 

Trading Approach: My enthusiasm for CAG shares have always been easily restrained, but a subdued annual total return in the 6% to 8% range is possible when the shares are bought at current prices or lower. I will likely add 5 shares at $30 to $31 and 5 more below $30. Selling at over $38 is highly probable.  

SU Bonds: I own 2. Item # 2.D. Bought 2 Conagra 4.3% SU Maturing on 5/1/24 at a Total Cost of 98.573 (10/18/22 Post); Bond Page | FINRA.org

F. Added to SBSI - Bought 5 at $25.7: 

Quote: Southside Bancshares

Cost: $128.5

SBSI Analyst Estimates (As of 7/14/23, the 2023 consensus E.P.S. was $2.82. SBSI reported a $.84 E.P.S. in the 2023 first quarter, up from $.77 in the 2022 first quarter, and beating the consensus by 6 cents.)

SBSI SEC Filings

Southside Bank - Corporate Profile

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

New Average cost per share: $26.05 (25 shares)

Dividend (regular): Quarterly at $.35 per share  ($1.4 annually)

Southside Bancshares, Inc. (SBSI) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

SBSI has historically paid a special dividend in the 4th quarter. 

Yield at $26.05: 5.37% (regular dividend only)

Last Ex Dividend: 5/22/23

I discussed SBSI in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 1.D. Added to SBSI - Bought 6 at $26.22 (7/8/23 Post) I discussed the last earnings report, which I viewed favorably, in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/23 

G. Added 3 TRP at $39.12: 

Quotes: 

USD Priced Shares: TC Energy Corp. (TRP)

CAD Priced Shares: TC Energy Corp. (Canada: Toronto)

Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rates Chart | Xe

Cost: US$117.36 

New Average cost per share: $43.3 (25 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.93 (C$3.72 annually)

Last Ex Dividend: 6/29/23  (owned 22 as of)

I recently discussed TRP and have nothing further to add here. Item # 1.B. Added to TRP - Bought 3 at US$39.77 (7/1/23 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filing

H. Added 2 AOD at $8.19: 

Quote: abrdn Total Dynamic Dividend Fund Overview - A Stock CEF

Cost: $16.38

AOD SEC Filings

AOD SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y ending 10/31/22

SEC Filing: Holdings as of 1/31/23

Sponsor's website: abrdn Total Dynamic Dividend Fund, Inc.

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation 

Leveraged: Barely at 1.22%

abrdn Total Dynamic Dividend (AOD) Portfolio | Morningstar (lists 25 top holdings)

Last Discussed: Item # 4.A. Added to AOD - Bought 5 at $8.21 (6/24/23 Post) 

New Average cost per share: $8.02 (85+ shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.0575 per share ($.69 annually)

I am reinvesting the dividend. 

The dividend has been recently supported by some ROC. The only way for the fund to entirely cover the dividend with income is through realized capital gains. 

Yield at New AC = 8.6%

Last Ex Dividend: 6/22/23

Data Date of 7/11/23 Purchase: 

Closing net asset value per share: $9.44

Closing Market price: $8.19

Discount: -13.24%

Average 3 Year Discount: -11.55%

Sourced: AOD  - CEF Connect

Performance has been adversely impacted by the significant foreign stock ownership. The allocation to U.S. stocks generally hovers near 50%.  

4. Treasury Bills Bought at Auction: $8,000 in principal amount

These purchases were made in my Schwab account and funded with proceeds from maturing treasury bills. Proceeds are redirected quickly since the yield on the sweep account is only .45%.  A $3K T bill matured last Thursday but Schwab did not credit my account until after the 1 and 2 month T Bill auctions closed that day.     

Treasury Yield Curve July 2023: Resource Center | U.S. Department of the Treasury

The 4 month T Bill has the highest yield at 5.53%. This bill is auctioned on each Wednesday. 

As of yesterday, the yield for the 3 month bill was 1.66% higher than the 10 year yield. 

A. Bought 3 Treasury Bills at 7/10/23 Auction: 

91 Day T Bill

Matures on 10/12/23

Interest: $39.81

Investment Rate: 5.409%

B. Bought 1 Treasury Bill at 7/11/23: 

1 Year T Bill 

Matures on 7/11/24

Interest: $51.87

Since I will hold this bill until it matures, the interest will be included in my 2024 income.  

Investment Rate: 5.428%

C. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 7/12/23 Auction: 

119 Day Bill

Matures on 11/14/23

Interest: $34.77

Investment Rate: 5.442%

D. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 7/13/23 Auction: 

56 Day Bill 

Matures on 9/12/23

Interest: $16.27

Investment Rate: 5.361%

5. CDs - FDIC Insured: 

CDs offered at brokerage firms often have callable features which is the case with the one described below. 

If short rates remain at current levels or higher, then JPM may not call this CD, and I would be better off than going with one that offered 5.2% on a non-callable basis. However, a call on 1/7/24 when CDs maturing in July 2024 are offered at say 4.6% would result in slightly lower income than a non-callable 5.2% CD bought at the same time and maturing on 7/15/24.  

A. Bought 1 J.P. Morgan 5.45% CD Maturing on 7/15/24: 

Interest paid at maturity. 

Callable by JPM on 1/7/24 and 4/7/24. 

JPM CDs are frequently callable and offer slightly better yields than non-callable CDs maturing at about the same time.  

6. Cash Flow into Fidelity Account on 7/17/23: 

Most of the cash flow into my Fidelity account on a Monday will be noted in the prior Saturday. 

Bond Redemption: $2,000

Interest and Dividends: 

Corporate Bond Interest: $870.58 (almost entirely semiannual payments with two small positions paying monthly) Municipal bond interest payments are made on the 1st. 

Common Stocks: $635.52

For GNL and RTL, I changed my dividend option to cash payments. I do not want to own more shares. I will likely sell RTL in all accounts before its acquisition by GNL is completed. I do not want to own more GNL. 

Equity Preferred Stocks: $39.06

CEFs: $11.71

CDs: $4.36 (monthly interest)

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.