Tuesday, June 28, 2022

ABB, AQN, ATLO, CFGPRD, EPRPRC, FLSW, FULT, GNLPRB, K, LYB, RTLPP, SWM

Economy

Consumers are feeling less confident about the US economy as prices keep rising | CNN Business

Covid: Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 escape antibodies from vaccination and prior infection, studies suggest | CNN This is far from over, but people are just tired of taking any precautions. The risk to the economy is the possibility of a far more deadly and infectious variant coming into being where vaccines and prior Covid infections provide no effective immunity.  

FHFA House Price Index Up 1.6 Percent in April; Up 18.8 Percent from Last Year | Federal Housing Finance Agency

US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Turns the Corner Again, Up 20.4% Annually in April but Down From March - CoreLogic®

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Russia launched missiles at civilian structures in Kiev last weekend, hitting an apartment building and a kindergarten, intentionally murdering several civilians. Russian strike hits Kremenchuk shopping center with more than 1,000 civilians inside; Russian forces hit Kyiv and other cities - The Washington Post Western nations reacted to this latest example of Russian barbarism by banning new imports of Russian gold.

On Monday, Russia targeted a shopping center in central Poltava region, with over one thousand civilians inside, deliberately murdering civilians as part of its ongoing terrorist campaign. Ukraine shopping mall hit by Russian missiles leaves more than a dozen dead-NPRA Missile Strike Hits Shopping Center With 1,000 People InsideRussia routinely commits war crimes and crimes against humanity.  

Russia in debt default as payment deadline passes - BBC News Lending money to Russia needs to be made permanently unlawful, a major felony, by the U.S. and other democracies.  

Turkey drops objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, removing major hurdle to two nations joining the alliance NATO is merely a defense pact that requires all members to respond when one is attacked by Russia. Sweden and Finland obviously believe that Russia's invasion of Ukraine as well as its routine commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity there, justified an urgent request to join NATO.  

NATO is the primary deterrent to further Russian aggression against its members. 

The Most Damning January 6 Testimony Yet - The Atlantic

Jan. 6 hearing: Key takeaways from explosive day of testimony

Jordan Klepper Shows Trump Supporters January 6th Hearing Clips | The Daily Show - YouTube  

Newly elected GOP congresswoman spread Capitol riot conspiracies and QAnon hashtags in now-deleted tweets The Trumpster Mayra Flores won a special election to fill a vacancy left when the Democratic representative retired to join a lobbying firm. 

Here are the QAnon supporters running for Congress in 2022 | Media Matters for America

Mary Miller (R) says abortion ruling 'victory for white life' at Trump rally - The Washington Post

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Due Process Clause of the 14th Amendment

The "due process clause" was the source of the constitutional right to privacy which has now been abolished by the republican Justices in overruling the Roe vs. Wade decision. Read: Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization opinion 

This is the relevant section in the 14th Amendment: 


When read based on the meaning ascribed to "due process" when that Amendment was adopted, the phrase simply meant that persons were entitled to a hearing and normal court processes before being deprived of their life or liberty by a state. Due Process does not create constitutional rights but merely requires a procedural process before life or liberty is deprived by a state.  

Lawyers today would define "due process" simply as the right to be heard using normal administrative or judicial processes. The phrase has not changed its core meaning over time. 

Putting aside the abortion issue, which is has unique considerations compared to other privacy matters like gay marriage or interracial marriages, preventing or restricting government intrusion into personal matters is a conservative value. 

The republican Justices are not judicial conservatives but merely part of the Supreme Courts mostly reactionary history, punctuated by brief periods of a more "liberal" judicial philosophy. 

As originally adopted, the the Bill of Rights were intended only to apply to Congressional actions.  

Chief Justice John Marshall, a contemporary of the framers, stated in Barron ex rel. Tiernan v. Mayor of Baltimore | Oyez that the first 8 Amendments applied to congressional actions only and posed no restrictions on state actions.  

The Supreme Court followed that precedent for about 150 years after the Constitution was first adopted but changed course when the Court started to find the Bill of Rights in the 14th Amendment's Due Process Clause, starting with the free speech decision in Gitlow v. New York 268 U.S. 652 (1925)( "For present purposes, we may and do assume that freedom of speech and of the press which are protected by the First Amendment from abridgment by Congress are among the fundamental personal rights and "liberties" protected by the due process clause of the Fourteenth Amendment from impairment by the States.") The First Amendment starts with "Congress shall make no law". 

Incorporation doctrine-Legal Information Institute

If Congress in 1868 meant to incorporate the first 8 Amendments into the 14th Amendment, that could have been done by simply saying those Amendments are incorporated by reference which, while an extremely simple thing to do, was not done.  

Where does it say in the 14th Amendment that only those rights broadly recognized in 1868 are "incorporated", which is how the republican Justices determine whether to incorporate Amendments 1 through 8 or to keep a constitutional right previously recognized in Supreme Court decisions like privacy.

So we are all now stuck in what Americans viewed as acceptable in 1868, thanks to Trump and his party, and we are supposed to call that a conservative judicial approach. 

Where does it say in the 14th Amendment that the due process clause incorporates the 2nd Amendment, thereby creating a constitutional right to bear arms free of state regulations or restrictions.  

But, that is what the "conservative" republican Justices held in McDonald v. Chicago | Oyez

And, when releasing the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the republican Justices struck down a New York gun regulation law New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, INC. v. Bruen using McDonald's Due Process Clause "incorporation" rationale.  

The Due Process Clause of the 14th Amendment is truly magical. 

It means whatever a "conservative" or "liberal" Justice wants it to mean in the service of policy, political, and even religious beliefs. I view several votes in favor of overruling Roe as being primarily based on the Justice's religious beliefs. 

And did anyone who voted for the 14th Amendment's passage view the word "person" to include corporations? 

The answer is of course no, a "person" is a human being and not an artificial entity created by filing incorporation papers with a state Secretary of State. If  Congress meant to include legal entities, that could easily have been done by simply saying "person and legal entities". 

Yet, the Republican Justices have consistently held that a corporation is a person within the meaning of the 14th Amendment and is consequently entitled to several constitutional rights "incorporated" into the "Due Process Clause". This legerdemain inserts two provisions into the 14th Amendment which are just not there. 

The 14th Amendment was passed in 1868 in response to laws that restricted the rights of former slaves. This Amendment makes it clear that slaves who were born in the U.S. were citizens of the U.S. and the states and were entitled to the same "Due Process" right as any other person. Nothing in the history suggests "person" was meant to include legal entities. 

{I would add that the Supreme Court invalidated as unconstitutional civil rights laws that were intended to protect the newly freed slaves while at the same time using the 14th Amendment to confer rights on corporations as "persons". The Civil Rights Cases (1883)‘Corporations Are People’ Is Built on a 19th-Century Lie - The Atlantic As a policy matter, corporations should have some constitutional rights IMO, but granting them those rights are judicial creations, just as much so as creating a privacy right out of the Due Process Clause.} 

The bottom line is the both "liberal" and "conservatives" create constitutional rights when a "strictly construed" judicial interpretation standard would not support such creation. And when stare decisis no longer has any meaning, which is the case now for the 6 Republican Justices, the Constitution means whatever the current majority says, using whatever reactionary rationale they cook up. 

In time, the decision to overturn Roe will be overturned by 5 Justices appointed by the Democrats. The Due Process clause will then be reinterpreted to create a right of privacy. The decision simply depends on the election results when the next vacancies occur. Both Alito and Thomas are in their 70s. 

As I stated for many years here, it was obvious that Trump's 3 appointees would overrule Roe when their votes were added to Alito and Thomas. When those people claimed that Roe was well settled law, knowing of course that they would overturn it when given the opportunity and they were obviously appointed for that purpose, were they lying under oath? There is sufficient publicly available information that will allow people to draw their own conclusions. I have drawn mine.  

The republican Justices have zero respect for stare decisis, notwithstanding their sworn testimony, and will overrule any decision that they do not like based on their religious and/or political beliefs. 

The process of taking the U.S. back at least to the 19th century, possibly the 18th, has only just begun. The Supreme Court That Transforms Right-Wing Grievances Into Law - The Atlantic 

Many of the red states make it a crime to have an abortion or "aid and abet" one. That would include someone who pays travel expenses to a blue state that permits abortions or sells or just gives an abortion pill to someone in a red state that uses the aid and abet language. 

Thomas calls for overturning precedents on contraceptives, LGBTQ rights | The Hill The Supreme Court overturned a law banning the sale of contraceptives in Griswold v. Connecticut 381 U.S. 479 (1965), using the "privacy right" rationale. I doubt that a state would now ban the sale of contraceptives but a large number will ban the abortion bill.  

Perhaps Justice Thomas would have a different approach when voting on the constitutionality of a law making it a felony for a black man to marry a white woman. Loving v. Virginia,  388 U.S. 1 (1967) The reasoning of the Dobbs decision would require the reversal of Loving, at least on its foundation in the 14th Amendment's Due Process Clause.  

At least the liberals admit to creating a "living Constitution" that is not perpetually stuck in what Americans viewed as their rights in 1868 which is the year the Republican Justices use to define unenumerated constitutional rights incorporated into the Due Process Clause. 

And it is certainly clear that one of those 1868 rights was not interracial marriage and certainly not same sex marriages either. 

To be clear, I view the incorporation doctrine as a good national policy, particularly since I am familiar with what the states have done since the nation's founding and will do when cut loose from any federal constitutional restraint.  

The incorporation doctrine is now "well settled law", even though it has no basis in the words actually used in the 14th Amendment. 

I doubt that the deeply reactionary republican Justices will overrule the incorporation doctrine, since they want everyone to be free from any state regulation of weapons, possibly allowing for prohibitions on owning nuclear weapons stored in children's rooms or carrying javelins on airplanes, and for corporations to have constitutional rights that can not be infringed by the states. 

So the incorporation doctrine is safe from being overruled, even though it lacks any textual support in the 14th Amendment. 

But any previously recognized constitutional right, which  is not specifically enumerated in Amendments 1 through 8, is toast if they do not like it since stare decisis is totally irrelevant to them in practice while paying insincere homage to it only as a formality.  

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1. Corporate Bonds

I am discussing some purchases out of time order to highlight the rapid percentage rise in short term rates. In this post, those purchases are discussed in Items A., E., F., G.,H. and I. below. 

With a bond ladder, I will have a constant flow of redemption proceeds that can be reinvested into more bonds, hopefully at higher rates. 

With bond purchases, I know precisely to the penny what my total return will be and that is comforting for the Old Geezer. 

I have $54K in principal amount yet to mature this year and all of the proceeds will be used to buy more bonds. 

A. Bought 1 Union Pacific  3.15% SU Maturing on 3/1/24 at a Total Cost of 99.589

Purchased 6/22/22 in my Interactive Brokers account. 

Issuer: Union Pacific Corp.  (UNP)

UNP Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch

UNP SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/22 (net income of $1.6B)

FINRA Page:  Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa1/A-

YTM at Total Cost: 3.401% (without the $1 commission, the YTM would be 3.463%)

Current Yield at TC = 3.163%

This 1 year YTM chart shows that this bond was trading at below 1% last January: 

As of 6/22/22

B. Added 1 National Rural Utilities Cooperative 3% SU Maturing on 12/15/27 at a Total Cost o $95.916

Interest payments are made monthly at $2.5 per $1,000 bond. 

I now own 2. 

National Rural is not a publicly traded company.  

It is owned by rural electric cooperatives operating throughout the U.S. Annual Report for the F/Y ending 5/31/21 at pages 3-6 Those cooperatives are owned by their customers who elect their Board members. Those cooperatives were formed pursuant to the Rural Electrification Act of 1936 - Wikipedia

While these cooperatives initially provided electricity to rural areas, service territories for many now encompass more densely populated areas as cities expand into what used to be rural areas. An example is the Middle Tennessee Electric cooperative that now provides service to parts of Brentwood, TN, a suburb of Nashville. Tennessee is a public power state with electric service provided by member owned cooperatives or municipally owned electric companies. Power is purchased from TVA. 

The company sells bonds and then loans the money to rural electric cooperatives at a higher interest rate. 

Since the company issues publicly traded debt, it does file financial reports with the SEC. SEC Filings10-Q for the F/Q ending on  2/28/22 

I had two bonds mature in March 2022 that I had bought at par value through Fidelity's corporate notes program:

Credit Ratings: A2/A-  Credit Ratings

Fitch Affirms National Rural at 'A'/'F1'; Outlook Stable

YTM at Total Cost: 3.81%, rounded down. 

Current Yield at TC = 3.13%, rounded up. 

C. Added 2 EVRG 2.45% SU Bonds Maturing on 9/15/24 at a Total Cost of 97.429


Issuer: Evergy Inc. -a Utility Holding company

2022 First Quarter Earnings Report 

I now own 6 with 2 in a Roth IRA account. 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail

Credit Ratings:Baa2/BBB+

YTM at TC  = 3.612%

At the time of purchase, this YTM was at about a 1% spread to the 2 year treasury note.  

Current Yield at TC = 2.51%

D. Bought 2 Mondelez 2.125% SU Maturing on 3/17/24 at a Total Cost of 98.269

Issuer: Mondelez International Inc. Cl A  (MDLZ) 

I also own 2 in a Roth IRA account. 

FINRA Page:  Bond Detail

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB

YTM at Total Cost = 3.105%

Current Yield at TC = 2.16%, rounded down.  

E. Bought 2 Citigroup 3% SU Maturing on 7/17/23-Monthly Interest Payments

I am discussing some bond purchases with 2023 maturities out of time order and this is one of them as is the Aetna bond discussed below. 

This one was offered by Fidelity through its corporate notes program. 

The price was 100, trading flat at issuance, and interest is paid monthly which is one reason why I bought 2. 


FINRA Page: Bond Detail

This one has been actively traded which is a first for bonds that I have bought through the Fidelity corporate notes program. 

F. Bought 2 Aetna 2.8% SU Maturing on 6/15/23 at a Total Cost of 99.469

Issuer: Aetna was acquired by CVS Health Corp.  (CVS) in 2018. CVS Health Completes Acquisition of Aetna, Marking the Start of Transforming the Consumer Health Experience | CVS Health

Finra Page: Bond Detail

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 3.355%

Current Yield at TC = 2.815

G. Bought 1 Diageo 2.625% SU Maturing on 4/29/23 at a Total Cost of 99.66

Purchased 6/22/22, about 10 months to maturity. 

Issue: Wholly owned subsidiary of Diageo PLC who guarantees the notes. 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: A3/A-

Debt Holders-Diageo

YTM at Total Cost  = 3.037%

Current Yield at TC = 2.634%

H. Bought 1 Boston Properties 3.125% SU Maturing on 9/1/23 at a Total Cost of 99.368

Purchased on 6/27/22. Discussed out of time order. 

Issuer:  Operating Entity for Boston Properties Inc.  (BXP)

BXP 2021 Annual Report

BXP SEC Filings

BXP 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

The make whole payment obligation attached to an optional redemption expires 90 days prior to maturity:

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+ 

YTM at Total Cost = 3.678%

I discussed a 1 bond purchase at a 99.863 total cost, made on 6/10/22, in a recent post. Item # 1.I. (6/15/22 Post) The YTM at that time and total cost figure was 3.238%. The shorter period of time to maturity and the lower price increased the YTM by .44% compared to that prior purchase. 

I. Bought 2 First Horizon 3.55% SU Maturing on 5/26/23 at a Total Cost of 99.869

Purchased on 6/28/22. Discussed out of time order which is the case for several bonds that mature next year. 

Issuer: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)

SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22

FHN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

I have recently discussed common stock purchases of FHN as a merger arbitrage play.  

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

FHN may redeem on or after 4/26/23 without a make whole payment. 

Credit Rating: Baa3

Fitch has a BBB rating. Fitch Places First Horizon on Rating Watch Positive Following Announced Sale to TD FHN's debt is not rated by S&P. Credit Ratings - First Horizon Corporation

YTM at Total Cost = 3.695%

Current Yield at TC = 3.5547%

2. Equity Preferred Stocks

A. Restarted EPRPRC - Bought 5 at $21.98

Quote: EPR Properties 5.75% Cumulative Convertible Preferred Series C Stock 

Issuer: EPR Properties (EPR) 

Website: The Diversified Experiential REIT - EPR Properties

Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy.

Par Value: $25

Dividends: Quarterly, Cumulative and non-qualified  

Yield at $21.98 = 6.54%

Conversion feature is currently assigned no value, or close to it, based on price. That has not always been the case as shown by some price levels before the pandemic, including those of some of my prior sales. 

As of 3/31/22, the conversion price was at $60.17. Summary of Series C Preferred Shares Q1/2022.pdf 

The conversion price started at $71.34 and has drifted down as determined by a complex formula. One component of that formula is the the amount that common share quarterly dividend exceeds $.685 per share. The quarterly excess is now at $.14 per share. 

Common share dividends are now paid monthly at $.275 per share or $.825 per share on a quarterly basis.  

Both the common and EPR preferred stocks dived into single digits during the early stages of the pandemic as most EPR tenants were unable to pay rent. EPR owns a lot of movie theatres that are leased to operators like AMC. I flipped EPRPRC during this period. Item # 4.B. Sold 10 ERPPRC at $20.32 (7/3/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $76.66); Item # 3.B. Added 2 EPRPRC at $15.24; 3 at $14.5; 5 at $13.5; 5 at $12.95; 1 at $11 and Sold 10 at $17.5 and 5 at $16.22 (5/2/20 Post)(profit snapshot = 16.6) 

I have bought and sold this busted convertible preferred stock several times. 

Other Trade Discussions: 

Item # 3 Sold 50 EPRPRC at $27.49 (10/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $178.58)-Item # 1 Bought 50 EPRPRC at $23.78-Used Commission Free Trade (4/23/18 Post)

Item # 1.B. Sold 50 EPRPRC at $28.48 (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $224.22)-Item # 1 Bought 50 EPRPRC at $24  (4/23/18)


Item # 3 Sold 50 EPRPRC-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $160.48)

EPRPRC Trading Profits to Date$656.54  

B. Started CFGPRD - Bought 5 at $24.76

Quote: Citizens Financial Group Inc. Preferred Series D Stock 

Issuer: Citizens Financial Group Inc.  (CFG) 

I own a few common shares. Most of those shares were acquired as a result of CFG's acquisition of Investors Bancorp for stock and cash. 

CFG SEC Filings 

Security: Fixed-to-floating rate non-cumulative equity preferred stock. 

Final Prospectus Supplement

Fixed Rate Coupon: 6.35% to but excluding 4/6/24

Yield at $24.76  = 6.41

Floating Rate: Spread of 3.642% to the 3 month Libor   

Libor is no longer used so the alternative 3 month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) rate will probably be the one used if and when the floating rate comes into effect. (see page S-21 of the Prospectus) The 3 month SOFR yield will be close to the 3 month treasury bill.  

Redemption: On or after 4/6/24 at par value plus accrued and unpaid dividends. 

Potentially Perpetual if issuer does not exercise redemption option. 

The fixed-to-floating rate stocks have the following possible benefits to their owners: 

(1) The security will be called when it is the interest of the issuer to do so. While this takes away a potential favorable coupon rate to the owner, the redemption would occur only when short term rates are so high, and anticipated to remain for an extended period of time, that the issuer has better financing alternatives. But, the flip side is  that the owner can reinvest the proceeds into new potentially higher yielding and more credit worthy securities. That is a different scenario than the one that has occurred for the past several years where higher coupon fixed rate preferred stocks were redeemed at par value when the alternatives for reinvestment would be in lower yielding ones or accepting more credit risk for the same coupon as the one redeemed. 

(2) If called, the owner is saved from having to watch the security go down in price or to sell at a loss; and 

(3) There may be some upside coupon potential from the floating rate when the issuer finds it disadvantageous to call even though the floating rate is attractive to the owner, assuming the floating rate is higher than what a similar fixed coupon security pays.  

Some disadvantages are accepting a lower coupon than what could be obtained in a comparable risk fixed rate coupon security, particularly when evaluated when originally issued, and the potential loss of the inflation, rising rate protection of the floating rate over lengthy periods of time. 

Still, I believe issuers offer fixed-to-floating rate preferred stocks because they view it as advantageous to them. The advantage arises from the lower starting fixed rate coupon compared to a plain vanilla fixed rate coupon preferred stock and the redemption option that can take away the benefit of the floating rate when the owner really wants it. That advantage can move favorably into a potential buyer's corner when the price declines enough to make the yield comparable to similar credit risk fixed  risk fixed rate preferred stocks. 

CFG recently sold $400M of a 5.641% fixed-to-floating junior bond maturing on 5/31/37. Prospectus That one is a $1K par value bond. Bond Detail (rated at BBB) I am not currently interested in this junior bond given its 2037 maturity, placement in the capital structure, its relatively unappealing floating rate starting on 5/21/31 at a 2.75% spread to the 5 year treasury note, and the issuer option to redeem on the reset date at par value which may render a potential appealing reset coupon irrelevant (tails the owner loses, heads CFG wins).  

C. Bought 5 RTLPP at $21.5

Quote: Necessity Retail REIT Inc. 7.5% Preferred Series A Stock 

Issuer: Necessity Retail REIT Inc. (RTL) 

Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy 

I own the common stocks and have recently discussed RTL's financial reports. I discussed the last earnings report in this post. Item # 3.F. Bought 2 RTL at $7.35; 3 at $6.91 (5/19/22 Post)SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental.

Security:  Prospectus (May 2019) 

Par Value: $25

Yield at $21.5  = 8.72%   

Optional Redemption: At par + accrued dividends on or after 3/26/24. 

Maturity: None, potentially perpetual 

Placement in Capital Structure: Equity Preferred, senior only to common

Dividends: Paid Quarterly, Cumulative and non-Qualified.  

Stopper Clause: Yes, standard in that the company is prohibited from paying a common share cash dividend and deferring the preferred share dividend payment.  

Next Ex Dividend Date: 7/1/22

D. Bought 5 GNLPRB at $21.56-Vanguard Taxable Account

Quote: Global Net Lease Inc. 6.875% Preferred Series B 

Issuer: Global Net Lease Inc.

Issuer SEC Filings

Yield at $21.56 TC = 7.97%, significantly less than the common shares but GNL can cut the common share dividend which it has done once so far. I have a significant position in the common stock.  

A cumulative preferred dividend can not be eliminated short of a bankruptcy but may only be deferred after the company eliminates the common share cash dividend. 

Last Buy Discussion:  Item #1.A. Bought 10 GNLPRB at $17.7; 5 at $15.5; 10 at $15.11; 2 at $10.86; 3  at $15.49- Fidelity Account (4/4/20 Post) I still own those shares. The collapse in price is standard for a preferred stock during a major common stock downtrend caused by a recession and runaway fears about the future. 

Fidelity: 25 shares with an average cost of $15 per share/yield at 11.46%

As of close on 6/28/22

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 2.A. Eliminated GNLPRB in Schwab Account-Sold 100 at $24.93 and 5 at $24.92 (8/20/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.54)

Security: Prospectus

Par Value: $25

Capital Structure Placement: Senior only to common stock 

Maturity: None, potentially perpetual 

Dividends: Quarterly, Cumulative and Non-Qualified 

Optional Redemption: At par value + accrued and unpaid dividends on or after 11/26/24

Stopper Clause: Yes, a standard provision that stops the issuer from paying a cash common share dividend while deferring payment to the preferred shareholders. 

Next Ex Dividend: 7/1/22

3. Eliminated Kellogg:

A. Sold 9+ K at $69.25 and 13 at $70.58

Quote: Kellogg Co. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Kellogg Co. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SEC Filings

Kellogg Company | Our Brand Portfolio

Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/1/22

Schwab Account History: 


Vanguard: 


Fidelity: 

Profit Snapshots: 

Vanguard and Schwab: +$92.79 (9+ shares)


Fidelity: +$145.43 (6/24/22 sales only)


KELLOGG COMPANY ANNOUNCES SEPARATION OF TWO BUSINESSES AS BOLD NEXT STEPS IN PORTFOLIO TRANSFORMATION

The plan involves separating into 3 independent companies: North American cereal, snakes + international cereal, and plant based foods. 

The plant based food segment is anchored by Morningstar Farms whose potential has not IMO ever been recognized in Kellogg's price, as previously discussed in earlier posts. 

The problem with this kind of financial engineering is that a higher multiple for the snack business may be more than offset by a lower multiple for North American cereal business. The international cereal business may weigh down the multiple of the snack segment. Financing and other costs may rise for all three segments. 

As I mentioned in a 6/21/22 comment, I do not approve of this kind of financial engineering since I doubt that it will be beneficial to shareholders who receive shares in 3 companies for the Kellogg shares owned at the time of separation. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.58 per share ($2.32 annually); last raised from $.57 effective for the 2021 second quarter payment. 

Dividends – Kellogg Company

Last Ex dividend: 5/31/22 (owned as of)

Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 4/3/21): SEC Filed Press Release, discussed in Item # 3.H. 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.L. Added to Kellogg (K)-Bought 2 at $61; 1 at $60.5; 1 at $59.9; 1 at $59.4; 1 at $58.8; 1 at $58; 1 at $57.6 (1/30/21 Post)Item # 3.D. Added to Kellogg-Bought 4 at $62.7; 2 at $62.44; 2 at $61.3 (12/19/20 Post)(substantive buy discussion); Item # 1 Bought 50 Kellogg at $55.44 and 10 at $54.68-Used Commission Free Trades (7/20/19 Post)

Prior Sell DiscussionsItem # 3.H. Sold 7.249 K at $71.5- Fidelity Account (5/19/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $70.12) Item # 2.B. Sold 4 K at $65.61-Fidelity Taxable Account  (4/7/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $10.43); Item 3.C. Sold 1 K at $67.93 (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $5.02); Item # 1.L. Pared K-Sold 2 at $65 (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $1.57); Item # 1.B. Sold 30 K at $66.3 (3/21/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $332.32); Item # 2. Pared Kellogg- Sold  10 at $69.3 (1/8/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $138.58); Item # 2.C. Sold 10 K at $66.3 (12/28/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $108.58); Item # 3.B. Sold 10 K at $63.95 (8/10/2019 Post)(profit snapshot = $85.08) 

Kellogg 2019-2022 Realized Gains: $989.92

I do not believe that I owned any shares prior to 2019. 

4. Other Small Ball

A. Bought 5 AQN at $13.19-Schwab Taxable


Quotes: 




I eliminated my position in CAD priced shares listed on the Toronto stock exchange. Item # 1. Sold 300 AQN:CA at C$19.51 (4/21/22 Post)(profit snapshot = +C$303)- Item # 1 Bought 300 AQN:CA at C$18.18 (11/18/21 Post)

Average cost per share: $14.10 (35 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.1808 per share

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. Announces 6% Common Share Dividend Increase, Declares Second Quarter 2022 Common Share Dividend of U.S.$0.1808 (C$0.2345), and Declares Second Quarter 2022 Preferred Share Dividends

Yield at $14.15.129%

Last Ex Dividend: 6/29/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filing 


AQN has a significant and growing renewable energy business consisting of hydro, wind, solar and thermal generation facilities. 

B. Bought 5 ABB at $26.75

Quotes:

USDs: ABB Ltd. ADR

Swiss Francs: ABB Ltd.   (Switzerland: SWX )

Swiss Franc to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe (CHF may have bottomed near .96 in May and June 2022) The Swiss National Bank has engaged in a Jihad against its own currency starting in July 2011. 

Last DiscussedItem # 2.M. Added 5 ABB at $31.5 (3/10/22 Post) 

New Average cost per share

Dividend: Paid Annually.  The last annual payment was $.8763

 per share with a 3/28/22 ex dividend date. 

For a payment made to a U.S. citizen, Switzerland is entitled to withhold 15%, but that amount will increase when the broker does not claim its customers tax treaty right to that cap. For the dividend paid in May 2022, Switzerland withheld 15%.

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): Q1 2022 results | ABB

E.P.S. = $.31 with consensus at $.29

Fidelity and Schwab have the non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.38 with the consensus at $.26 

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (6/15/22): 4 stars with a FV of $37 and a wide moat.  

S & P (4/25/22): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $39.

C. Bought 5 SWM at $24; 5 at $23.3


Quote: Schweitzer-Mauduit International Inc. (SWM)

SWM SEC Filings

Schweitzer-Mauduit International, Inc. - Investor Relations

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22

SWM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Last DiscussedItem # 2.G. Bought 5 SWM at $25.35 (5/26/22 Post) I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release

Average cost per share: $24.22 (15 shares)


Snapshot Intraday on 6/23/22 after adds 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.44

Yield at $24.82 = 7.09%

SWM is in the process of acquiring Neenah Papers. SWM and Neenah to Combine in All-Stock Transaction to Create a ~$3 Billion Global Leader in Specialty Materials 

SWM and Neenah Introduce Mativ, Inc., a ~$3 Billion Global Leader in Specialty Materials, Formed From the Pending Merger of Equals The symbol will change to MATV. 

D. Bought 1 LYB at $85.34

Quote: LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A 

LYB Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch

LYB SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22

Reuters Key Metrics

Products & Technology | LyondellBasell

Last DiscussedItem # 3.J. Eliminated LYB in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 2 at $110.24 (5/19/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $41.8) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Earnings Press Release 

New average cost per share: $91.46 (6+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 6/23/22 after add

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.19  per share ($4.76 annually)

LYB paid a special dividend of $5.2 per share in June 2022 based on its recent stellar results. LyondellBasell Announces $5.20 Special Dividend and Increases Quarterly Dividend by 5 Percent | LyondellBasell (5/27/22)

Yield at $91.46: =  5.2%   (regular only)

Last Ex dividend date: 6/3/22

E. Bought 5 ATLO at $22.64-Fidelity Taxable

Quote: Ames National Corp.

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy


Average cost per share Fidelity Account: $22.64 (5 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share, last raised from $.26 effective for the 2022 second quarter payment. 

Ames National Corporation Dividend History

Yield at $22.64: 4.77%

Next Ex Dividend: 7/29/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release and 10-Q 

Net Income of $5.7M

"First quarter 2022 loan interest income was $1.3 million lower than first quarter 2021. The decrease is primarily due to a reduction in interest rates, less income recognized from PPP fees, and a reduction in the recovery of interest income on nonaccrual loans."

E.P.S. at $.57

NIM = 2.55%, down from 2.86% in the 2021 first quarter

Efficiency ratio = 59.72%

ROA = .96%

ROE = 10.28%

Consolidated Total Capital Ratio = 14.9%

F. Added 2 FLSW at $28.9:

Quote: Franklin FTSE Switzerland ETF Overview

Investment Category: Exposure to assets priced in Swiss Francs  

Sponsor's website: Franklin FTSE Switzerland ETF - FLSW

Expense Ratio = .09%, low for a foreign country stock ETF. 

Last Discussed: Item # 3.O. Added 1 FLSW at $31.5; 2 at $30.75 (3/31/22 Post) 

Average cost per share: $31.26 (10 shares)

Dividends: Paid semiannually and variable 

Last 2 dividends: $.554 per share

Yield at $31.26 = 1.77%, using last 2 payments. 

Last Ex dividend date: 6/17/22 at $.543+ per share

Some top holding as of 6/25/22: 


Of those stocks, I recently eliminated my position in Roche and currently have small ball positions in ABB (discussed above), Holcim and Novartis. 

G. Added to FULT- Bought 3 at $14.69:




New Average cost per share = $16.3 (20+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share
Yield at AC of $16.3 = 3.68%
Yield at $14.69 = 4.08%
Next Ex Dividend: 6/30/22
I am currently reinvesting the dividend. 

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members. 

17 comments:

  1. I've never been much for schedules, so it won't faze me at all. Today was treatment day so I'll read more tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  2. General Mills Inc.
    $72.91 +$2.65 +3.77%
    Last Updated: Jun 29, 2022 at 9:57 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gis?mod=search_symbol

    GIS is my largest consumer staple holding measured in dollars. I have a favorable opinion on its efforts to expand beyond the cereal business, particularly the organic and pet food acquisitions.

    The Stock Jocks are giving a thumbs up to the earnings report released earlier today:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40704/000119312522184385/d370020dex99.htm

    "Fourth-quarter net sales for the Pet segment increased 37 percent to $610 million, driven by favorable net price realization and mix and pound volume growth. Net sales results in the quarter included a 15-point benefit from the pet treats acquisition. Organic net sales were up 22 percent. Segment operating profit increased 10 percent to $113 million, driven primarily by favorable net price realization and mix and higher volume"

    The foodservice segment is doing much better, having previously suffered from the pandemic related lower demand from restaurants.

    The company expects double digit inflation in its fiscal 2023 year which will end in May 2023.

    The dividend was increased by 6%.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I decided to participate in the "2 month" treasury bill auction tomorrow and place an order. The bill is not quite 2 months this time, with the issue date being 7/5/22 and a 8/30/22 maturity date. Fidelity says the expected yield is currently at 1.426%, more than the .15% paid in my Schwab sweep MM account. The 2 month T bill yield is slightly higher.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I should participate in one of the auctions simply to get familiar with the process. However, I'm getting 1.65% on reg funds at first foundation.

      I don't have that much in the Roth & want to have it free for if/when a crash or deeper bottom sets up. It's 1.3% at vanguard. Most of my retirement is in the 401k. I don't think you can buy treasuries there. (A question I should look into.)

      Maybe with reg funds in a small amount. Play with it. I bought ibonds so that treasury account should be the right type.


      Delete
  4. As recession fears have increased over the past several days, the 10 year treasury yield has trended down, partly IMO in a flight to safety but also in response to what the FED will do when and if a recession develops. It would be an historical anomaly for the FED to continue hiking the FF rate during a recession. The normal response would be to lower it.

    U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
    2.98 -0.116
    Last Updated: Jun 30, 2022 at 1:48 p.m. EDT

    The Atlanta Fed revised its real GDP forecast for the 2nd quarter to -1% from +.3%.
    https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

    The revisions have been mostly down.

    Conditions are ripe for one developing which includes the negative impact from inflation on consumer discretionary spending, a slowdown in new home construction and sales, the lack of federal stimulus payments to households, and consumer fears about a recession impacting their spending and saving patterns now.

    The Fed auctioned today a 56 day treasury bill with an IR of 1.65%. I bought $10K using my Schwab sweep account, which pays .15%, as the funding source.

    One peeve that I have about my brokerage firms is the use of third party services to price bonds. The manufactured prices are invariably below the last trade and the current bids. I do not remember a single example when a bond was priced above market value by those services. I try to ignore those fake and low valuations, knowing that those services may get it right the day before the bond is called at par value.

    While I will be discussing some bond purchases out of time order, most of the bonds purchased this week will be discussed in late September, which is just how far I am behind.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There's been a downtrend in bonds for so long, that it felt right for them to trend up a little.

      Anticipation of a recession and the Fed reversing policy makes more sense than anything. I expect the decrease in bonds to start up again.

      As an aside, the fed probably won't increases rates in a recession. But if inflation doesn't magically disappear, they should.

      Surprised any increased GPD is expected. This looks like a recession is coming. It will be a moderate one. Not a light one. It will be as deep as 2008 only if fraud shows up in the system somewhere - and that is still possible. It will take longer to get out of than the usual because there's so many pieces to unravel once it gets going. (Unless Ukraine's Russia invasion finally ends.)

      THIS is the recession the rate inversion -before- covid predicted.

      I bet student loan forgiveness will be used to pump money into the system. (I'm against SL forgiveness. Fix the system if it's broken; don't favor a slice of people at a particular time period.)

      I wonder why brokerages price bonds low and inaccurately. There must be an advantage to them, even if it's just being cautious.

      Delete
    2. Discover Bank is now 1.1%. They're usually on the higher side.

      Delete
    3. Land: Interest rates are declining again this morning. Reading the signals being sent by prices and yields, the opinion being expressed is that the Fed will soon be presented with a Hobbesian choice, either reduce interest rates and go back to QE or continue raising the FF rate during a recession in order to combat high inflation.

      One of the Dr. Doom economists, Nouriel Roubini, paints a doomsday scenario that is now unfolding.

      https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/30/stagflationary-debt-crisis-us-recession

      Delete
    4. Rock and hard place.

      I'm a little worried that my decreased funds will not recover in the next 5 years. At least I was less than 1/2 invested.

      I don't trust the Fed to see or admit all the complications that are going to cause trouble for a while.

      All advisor's advise to keep rainy day funds. Rates are the Fed's rainy day funds they can reduce. They forgot to fill their piggy bank.

      Delete
    5. I wonder if rates going lower, and inability to break down from the market range, are a set up for a rally of optimistic confidence. A bear market rally.

      Delete
    6. Land: The rallies this year are consistent with an ongoing bear market trend, with the rallies lasting only a day or two before the market returns to the dominant downtrend.

      Almost any stock buying during a dominant bear market trend will only increase a portfolio's unrealized losses.

      The problem is that it is impossible to know when that trend will end or how low stocks will go.

      Buying during a downtrend, when valuations and dividend yields look attractive, will generally work longer term. How long will I have to wait? No one can answer that question with any certainty.

      An example was my buying in February-April 2009 that brought me back more quickly to the total portfolio value in early October 2007, sometime in June 2009 as I recall.

      It is psychologically difficult to buy and then see more declines in the share price. That is made more difficult by having either unrealized gains in stocks owned prior to downturn become unrealized losses or unrealized gains decline by significant amounts. Both will occur.

      Delete
    7. Yep, It's been happening!

      Interestingly, the indices aren't down nearly as much as some individual stocks.

      At some point I need to start dollar cost averaging in. From start of buying Feb to June improvement or reversal in the bear was 4 months. I would have pictured much longer. So that's important data to realize how fast that window comes, and to be vigilant about getting. I have a lot to get in, so the dollar cost averaging has to be in bigger chunks than I thought of. Good to be aware of.

      Delete
  5. A couple of the highest yielding REITs, GNL and RTL, declared their regular quarterly dividends. I discussed purchases of their preferred stocks in this post.

    Both the GNL and RTL common shares have over 11% yields based on yesterday's closing prices.

    Necessity Retail REIT Inc. (RTL)
    $7.45 +$0.17 +2.34%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/rtl?mod=search_symbol

    Quarterly dividend: $.2125 per share ($.85 annual)
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-necessity-retail-reit-announces-common-stock-dividend-for-third-quarter-2022-301574941.html

    Yield at $7.45 = 11.41%

    There was some question about RTL continuing its regular dividend rate after its recent transformation, previously discussed here, which added more debt, and the already tight cash flow dividend coverage.

    The other REIT is Global Net Lease who declared its regular quarterly dividend of $.40 per share:

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-net-lease-inc-announces-common-stock-dividend-for-third-quarter-2022-301574940.html

    GNL closed last Friday at $14.38. The yield at that price is at 11.13%.

    Both GNL and RTL are at risk of cutting the dividends so I pay attention to AFFO cash flow coverage for the dividend.

    I have a serious position in GNL, mostly due to its P/AFFO compared to other net lease REITs. The position in RTL common is not serious, close to 200 shares or thereabouts when all account positions are combined.

    Both REITs are externally managed and are disfavored by investors who count as reflected in their relatively poor performance compared to other REITs and their persistently way above average dividend yields.

    The Vanguard Real Estate ETF closed last Friday at a 3.08% yield:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vnq?mod=search_symbol

    For the first time in several months, at least according to my less than optimal memory now, my bond portfolio was up strongly yesterday with the stocks. But have been trending down together for most of this year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Quite a contrast, 3.08% to 11.13%. Of course higher risk results in higher rates. Since I don't own Reits now, I've been waiting until after the crash that may be coming. (Or not, but everyone expects it.)

      Delete
  6. It's an interesting little essay you've written about the abstract and theoretical 'penumbras' of Roe and it's descendents. You might want to expand it and get it published more officially somewhere.

    I'd like to mention something else. A lot of Supreme Court decisions these days seem to be written in some kind of administrative gibberish which has given many the impression that they are written by committees of law clerks. Justice Sotomayer has managed to maintain a very different and very personal literary style. Among other things, she's not afraid to explicitly express feelings. The Dissent in Dobbs is obviously all hers, probably every word of it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. David: If a conservative Supreme Court Justice is defined as someone who uses "strictly construed" and "as written" interpretation standards, then there are no conservative justices.

      Using those standards, there are no "penumbras" emanating from the Constitution that create a general privacy right and no incorporation of the Bill of Rights into the Due Process Clause of the 14th Amendment.

      Consequently, if a Justice wanted to find a constitutional right for gun ownership free of any state law, that right would have to be created, just as much so as the privacy right in Roe. It is noteworthy that the Republican Justices struck down a mild NY law relating to gun ownership on the same day as overruling Roe.

      The bottom line is that the Supreme Court Justices have been creating rights through the 14th Amendment Due Process Clause since it was passed in 1868 that do not exist in a literal reading of that Amendment. The result is tied more to the Justices political and/or religious beliefs than to anything actually in the Constitution as written.

      Delete
  7. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/07/amkby-cowz-cpf-dirunca-fhb-hpp-mac-oran.html

    ReplyDelete