Economy:
December 2023 BLS Jobs Report-Employment Situation Summary - 2023 M13 Results:
Payrolls up 216,000
Unemployment unchanged at 3.7%
Average hourly earnings up 15 cents (+.4%) to $34.27
Annual Hourly Wage Increase: +4.1%
Work Week: Down by .1 to 34.3 hours
Labor Participation Rate: 62.5%, down .3%.
Job gains for October and November were revised down by a combined 71,000.
U-6: Up .1 to 7.1% seasonally adjusted. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization - 2023 M13 Results
Discussed at Jobs report December 2023: Payrolls increased by 216,000 in December
Some financial websites described this employment report as "hot" or similar terms, which is ridiculous IMO.
Opinion: Ed Yardeni: 12 reasons why you'll see the S&P 500 at 5,400 in 2024 - MarketWatch I would agree that the reasons exist but it remains to be seen whether the S&P 500 has discounted these economic tailwinds and whether the Stock Jocks will see them continuing past 2024 when pricing stocks later this year. The reasons include interest rates and inflation are returning to to benign levels, consumers in the aggregate have purchasing power, and an ongoing boom in capital spending resulting from American and foreign companies onshoring production back to the U.S. and the government's spending on U.S. infrastructure (new orders for construction machinery up 30.5% over the past two years and construction employment hitting a record high of 8M in November).
China has steadily decreased it holdings of U.S. treasury debt over the past year, going from $877.9B in October 2022 to $769.6B in October 2023, the last month data is currently available from the Treasury. Treasury.pdf
Why Red Sea chaos is driving oil buyers ‘into the arms of U.S. shale producers’ - MarketWatch
U.S. crude oil production is trending up:
The trend up starting in 2010 is due to shale production.
Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day) The decline in 2020 was related to the pandemic and its impact on demand.
The U.S. is the largest producer of natural gas. Top 10 Natural Gas Producers by Country Russia is in second place but at 32% below the U.S. domestic production measured in trillion cubic meters. The U.S. is increasingly providing natural gas to Europe, replacing Russia as a supplier. The gas is liquified before transport at terminals located on the Gulf and East Coasts. Liquefied natural gas - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
++++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $10,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: None. I have suspended purchases due to the significant yield declines and an already substantial overweighting.
Individual Common Stocks: -$908.22
(consisting of $1,375.93 in proceeds minus $467.71 in purchases)
Stock CEFs/Mutual Fund/ETF: +$714.7
Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$193.52
Leveraged Bond CEFs: +$81.6
Exchange Traded Bond: +$213
U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks: - $480.2
2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds (discussed in blog): -$193.52
2023 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds (discussed in blog): -$27,091.82
+++
Dictator Putin and His Orwellian Empire of Misery:
Losses ∙ RussiaWarSpotting-documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Russia attacks Ukraine with ballistic missiles provided by North Korea, U.S. says - YouTube
Russian candidate barred from standing against Putin | DW News - YouTube
Russian Grandmother Speaks the Truth Without Fear - YouTube
Russia works to subvert French support for Ukraine, documents show - The Washington Post Kremlin documents show a concerted effort by Russia to disrupt France's support for Ukraine "through social media and French political figures, opinion leaders and activists."
The Russian interference is being directed by Sergey Kiriyenko, Putin's first deputy chief of staff. One man identified by the Post who is allegedly financing pro-Russian politicians in France is Jean-Luc Schaffhauser. (see, A Russian bank gave Marine Le Pen’s party a loan. Then weird things began happening. - The Washington Post)
Last Sunday, Russia launched more missiles and drones at Ukrainian civilians and civilian buildings, and the Russians cheered in response to this report with their comments to this video. Russia rains missiles on Kyiv and other cities • FRANCE 24 English - YouTube
Russia bombards Kyiv, Kharkiv after Putin promises to intensify attacks - YouTube; Russia Pounds Ukraine After Putin's Warning, Norway Permits Direct Arms Sale, Poland Deploys F 16s - YouTube; Russia launches bombings across Ukraine as Putin vows to intensify attacks - YouTube; Russian missile strikes kill civilians in Ukrainian cities - BBC News -YouTube Committing war crimes and crimes against humanity were normal for the Nazis and are an integral part of Russia's strategy in Ukraine and in prior conflicts.
It is now routine for Russian misinformation, transmitted by Russian trolls and bots, about the war in Ukraine to dominate comments made on video channels making factual statements about the war. In some cases, the number exceeds 50% and can run up to 90% of the comments. The comments are from users that have no other information on their websites. The content demonstrates their perfection of Orwellian thought, where true is false and false is true.
As 2023 draws to a close, Putin wants the world to think he is winning This position is being transmitted by Russian trolls and bots on U.S. social media. The comments claim that Ukraine can not win, Russia is merely defending itself when blowing up apartment buildings, and U.S. taxpayers are wasting money by continuing to supply Ukraine with aid.
Russia continued last week with its now routine and intentional targeting of Ukrainian civilian buildings with missiles and drone attacks. Twin Russian missile strikes hit Kharkiv, REUTERS-YouTube
Notwithstanding video, photographic and eyewitness testimony that Russia is in fact targeting Ukrainian civilians and civilian buildings almost every day since its invasion started in February 2022, Russia denies that it has done so, as if Putin has expanded his Orwellian control over the entire world and has no fear of being contradicted with accurate and indisputable evidence. It just makes Russia look ridiculous and confirms that its government is totally untrustworthy.
In my last post, I included a snapshot of U.S per capita GDP compared to Russia under Putin's leadership.
Constant GDP per capita for the Russian Federation- St. Louis Fed (information is sourced from the World Bank)
Another data point is the Ruble's status as a junk currency whose value has been declining against other major currencies for a long time. Russian Ruble to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
I commented on one YouTube video that the Russian economy will be unable to maintain even flat per capita GDP growth, which has been the norm since 1990. Those include the following:
(1) Prior to Putin's order to invade Ukraine, Russia had extremely unfavorable demographics, with deaths exceeding births, and a rapidly aging population. The war has aggravated that problem, as young Russians fled the country or have died as Putin's canon fodder in Ukraine. Many will leave hereafter recognizing that life in another country will be better for them or at least their descendants;
(2) Russia has proven that it can make weapons but not much of anything else that anyone would want to buy other than Vodka that is liberally consumed in that country;
(3) Energy resources will gradually be depleted and demand will weaken longer term causing downward price pressure which will have a major negative impact on Russia's economy, Russia GDP oil and gas percentage quarterly 2023 | Statista;
(4) The Ruble is a junk currency and will remain so. That long term problem will add to inflationary pressures that will become systemic in an economy dominated by Kleptocrats and an inadequate labor force. Russia's annual inflation, as reported by Putin's government, was at 7.48% through November, up from 6.69% in October. I would add at least 2 percentage points to those numbers. Nothing reported by Putin's government is true unless it puts him in a favorable light;
(5) To defend the junk currency, Russia's Central Bank recently raised its benchmark rate to 16%. Russia’s Central Bank Raises Rates to 16 Percent - The New York Times Other countries with junk currencies will use extremely high rates to dampen inflation, but this generally results in economic slowdowns without doing much, if anything, to control inflation. In the years to come, I anticipate that Russia may have nominal GDP growth from time to time resulting from high inflation, but inflation adjusted GDP growth will be negative; and
(6) There will be limited upward financial mobility for most Russians, causing even more young Russians, at least those with a modicum of common sense, to leave for better opportunities. The Russian economic system primarily benefits Putin and his coterie of Kleptocrats.
Putin has no choice now but to continue his war in Ukraine. His survival is dependent on a victory. If 1 million or more Russians have to die to secure that victory, and a million maimed physically and/or mentally, then that is viewed by Putin as a meaningless price to pay for his survival, to keep his billions of ill-gotten gains, and to maintain his tyrannical rule. Why Russians Support The War and Why Putin Can't Give Up | Ep.2 Dr. Jade McGlynn - YouTube
Trump Told G7 Leaders That Crimea Is Russian Because Everyone Speaks Russian In Crimea Putin would agree with Trump. If there are Russian speakers in an independent nation, Putin believes that they belong to Russia.
Russia's Lavrov claims the West is shifting strategy on Ukraine
Another Russian has fallen out of window. The latest one, Vladimir Egorov, fell three stories to his death. Vladimir Egorov: Pro-Putin regional politician found dead outside his house; Ravil Maganov: Lukoil chairman dies after falling from a Moscow hospital window; Pavel Antov, Russian sausage magnate, dies after hotel fall in India Russia will say there is just an epidemic of suicides. However, if anyone is suspected of challenging Putin's power, or a person with some influence or a position in government criticizes him, death will soon follow.
How Putin Turned a Western Boycott Into a Bonanza - The New York Times The war has provided a major financial boost to Putin and his coterie of Kleptocrats as detailed in this article. There is no benefit to most ordinary Russians. A few Russians, who are paid more to fight in Ukraine than they can earn in a civilian job, will receive a financial benefit provided they survive the war or avoid permanent physical and/or mental disabilities if they survive. The war will simply hasten the now inevitable decline of Russia's economy.
U.S. reliability on global stage imperiled as GOP plays politics with Ukraine aid - YouTube
Mother Of Twins Tells Of Remarkable Survival From Bombed Mariupol Maternity Hospital - YouTube
+++
Don the Authoritarian and His Party:
RealClearPolitics-Election-2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Using the average of all polls, Trump currently has a 51.7% lead over his newest competitor. Trump’s Legal Jeopardy Hasn’t Hurt His G.O.P. Support, Times/Siena Poll Finds - The New York Times
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
China spent over $5.5 million at Trump properties while he was in office, documents show
Trump’s Businesses Got Millions From Foreign Governments While He Was President - WSJ; Trump's businesses received at least $7.8 million in payments from foreign governments as president
Special Counsel Jack Smith pushes back on Trump’s immunity claim; As Smith correctly pointed out, accepting Trump's immunity claim would license a President to commit criminal acts to stay in office. Other criminal acts would likewise be immune from prosecution during the term, with the end results being the transformation of the Office of the President into a Dictator. This kind of argument is to be expected from Donald. Donald Trump Stung by Legal Filing Hours Before New Year's Eve This is link to the brief filed by the Special Prosecutor United States v. Donald J. Trump.pdf. If the Republican Supreme Court Justice grant Trump immunity from criminal prosecution, then that could mark the end of America's democracy.
Jan. 6 poll: Republicans more loyal to Trump, rioters who stormed Capitol - The Washington Post This poll is consistent with others that I have seen over the years, such as the ones where 81% of republicans viewed Donald as honest and almost as many believed he was a good role model for their children.
Led by Trump, GOP candidates take polarizing stances on race and history - The Washington Post While the comments are appealing to many Americans, I would not agree with the Post referring to those people as "conservatives".
Video: Authorities encountered over 225,000 migrants along the border in Dec. | CNN This news item, which is widely disseminated in the U.S., so much so that it would be almost impossible for a voter to be unaware, will significantly enhance Trump's chances for another 4 year term. Biden's age, illegal immigration and being wrongly blamed for inflation will be major headwinds for his reelection, and all of those are obvious.
Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley pledge to pardon Donald Trump if he’s convicted - The Washington Post Haley and DeSantis are just groveling for Trump voters. If Trump is convicted and the conviction is affirmed after all appeals are exhausted, he should serve his sentence just like anyone else.
Republicans are still refusing to provide more aid to Ukraine, which encourages Putin to continue the war until Ukraine is absorbed into Russia. Putin vows to intensify attacks, as Ukraine pleads for supplies from allies - YouTube
About 1/2 of the republicans in the House oppose any further aid for Ukraine, having voted against all aid bills or against all after the first one. I doubt they would budge even if their immigration demands are met.
This kind of behavior has a long history in the Republican party, sometimes called by historians as the America First foreign policy, which led most of them, for example, to vote against the Lend Lease Act that helped Britain resist another imperialistic and totalitarian regime prior to the U.S. entry into WWII. Senate approves supplemental Lend-Lease Act, Oct. 23, 1941 - POLITICO (24 republicans in the House voted in favor and 135 against and only 10 republican senators voted for the bill)
The WWII Strategy Biden Can Use to Bypass Republicans on Ukraine - POLITICO; The Neutrality Acts of the 1930 - Office of the Historian Noting that many republicans have gravitated to a pro-Russian position with growing numbers of them admiring Putin or suggesting that Ukraine needs to capitulate. Another republican favorite is the authoritarian leaning PM of Hungary Viktor Orban. Anne Applebaum: Orbán evidence of what a determined, anti-democratic figure can do - YouTube; Republicans in Congress are getting advice from Viktor Orbán's office about Ukraine; What Viktor Orbán's CPAC appearance tells us about Trump, GOP
Several news outlets have reported that the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition and may have no choice but to accept a cease fire agreement that could easily result in Russia taking about 1/5th of Ukraine in exchange for its promise to behave, similar to the promise made by Russia in the Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine May Have to Accept a Cease-Fire - WSJ; Putin Smells Blood As Ukraine Faces Growing Calls To Negotiate-Newsweek; With Western aid stalled, Ukrainian troops run low on artillery shells - The Washington Post The republicans in the U.S. would be the author of that result. I would recommend a refresher course for them about the historical events leading up to WWII in Europe.
Donald Trump’s Tirades Barely Make a Blip | Vanity Fair Daily mean spirited tantrums by a 77 year old man who never matured beyond a 12 year brat is incomprehensibly viewed as acceptable adult behavior for a President.
The House Republicans have voted to begin impeachment proceedings against Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas in an election year partisan political maneuver. House committee to formally begin impeachment proceedings against Biden Homeland Security chief The Republicans have the votes to impeach in the House and a "hearing" is a mere formality to provide cover for a political decision made by them.
There is no basis for an impeachment using the Constitution's standard in Article II, Section 4: "The President, Vice President and all civil officers of the United States, shall be removed from office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors."
The republicans are going to impeach Mayorkas because he is implementing the law as it exists with the resources available to his department rather than the immigration laws that the republicans want to pass but have failed to do so and would consequently be unlawful to enforce.
For voters who are currently on the fence in the upcoming election, the Mayorkas impeachment trial in the Senate will highlight the House republicans unfitness and inability to govern in a responsible and adult way.
Government could shut down over border dispute - The Washington Post In addition to conditioning their approval of any additional Ukrainian aid on the Democrats accepting the GOP's immigration demands, the republicans are now threatening also to shut the government down unless those demands are met. A ‘tyranny of the minority’ is destroying American democracy, a new book warns | CNN; Tyranny of the Minority: Why American Democracy Reached the Breaking Point-Amazon.com: Books
72-year-old Florida man arrested for threatening to kill Bay Area Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) - CBS News
Justice Dept. accuses 2 political operatives of hiding foreign lobbying during Trump administration - ABC News The only options are to tell the truth to the FBI agents asking questions or keep your mouth shut. If there is proof that statements are material and false, then it is frequently the case that the best criminal case is making false statements to the FBI rather than the conduct that is inquired about.
Supreme Court agrees to decide whether Trump can be barred from holding office This issue has to be decided by the Supreme Court as expeditiously as possible. The Republican Justices will find a way to keep Trump on the ballot, even if that requires them to abandon their adherence to textualism or originalism while attempting to mask it. Originalism vs. Textualism | Pacific Legal Foundation
Apart from the legalities which I have previously discussed, it would be a bad idea to remove Trump from the November 2024 Presidential ballot.
I do agree that Justice Thomas, whose wife participated in the 1/6 "Stop the Steal" rally, needs to recuse himself but I do not expect that he will.
Trump's attorney assured Fox "News" that the Republican Justices, naming Kavanaugh by name, will reverse the Colorado Supreme Court. Trump attorney says Kavanaugh will ‘step up’ in ballot cases | The Hill
+++
1. Small Ball CEF Purchases (Fidelity Account)- Monthly Dividends:
As previously mentioned, I am increasing my allocation to CEFs that pay monthly dividends in my Fidelity account until I at least hit $200 per month in dividend payments. I will not be updating the monthly amount until I add up the total from my March 2024 statement.
I have recently discussed these CEFs, other than MIN, and will not have much to add here regarding the others.
A. Added to MIN - Bought 30 at $2.72:
Quote: MFS Intermediate Income Trust Overview - Unleveraged Bond CEF
Cost: $81.6
MFS Intermediate Income Trust Annual Report P/E 10/31/23
Portfolio Breakdown with Credit Ratings:
Page 1, Annual Report |
Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate that is trending down some.
MIN Stock Dividend History & Date
2023 dividend has significant ROC support which explains why the penny rate is trending down. Possibly the dividend will stabilize soon and start to trend up as proceeds from maturing securities can be reinvested at higher yields.
Yield at $2.72: 8.82%, with caveats and using the assumption described here: With minor changes in the dividend penny rate, and a downward trend, it is not possible to compute a yield. While the monthly rate was over $.02 throughout 2023, I am assuming just a $.02 monthly per share rate ($.24 annually) when computing a dividend yield.
Last Ex Dividend: 12/19/23
Data Date of 12/29/23 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $2.92
Closing Market Price: $2.68
Discount: -6.16%
Average 3 year discount: -4.88%
Sourced: MIN - CEF Connect
B. Added to BSTZ - Bought 5 at $16.76; 5 at $16.5:
Quote: BlackRock Science & Technology Term Trust Overview
Cost: $166.3
Last Discussed: Item # 3.I. Started BSTZ - Bought 10 at $17.03; 10 at $17 (12/23/23 Post)
Sponsor's website: Science and Technology Term Trust
SEC Filing Holdings as of 9/30/23
SEC Filed Shareholder Semiannual Report for the Period Ending 6/30/23
New Average cost per share: $16.89 (30 shares)
Dividends: Paid monthly at a variable rate. It is impossible to calculate a dividend yield given the changes in the dividend rate. Ultimately the dividend amounts and the amount of ROC support, if any, will depend on realizing capital gains.
The January 2024 dividend will be $.10271. Distribution Dates and Amounts Announced for Certain BlackRock Closed-End Funds
Last Ex Dividend: 12/14/23
Next Ex Dividend Date: 1/11/24
Data Date of 12/29/23 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $21.55
Closing Market Price: $16.71
Discount: -21.48%
Sourced: BSTZ - CEF Connect
Publicly traded securities have a precise market value.
As previously discussed, this fund has a substantial equity weighting in private companies.
Any value assigned to those securities is at best mushy IMO.
Marks placed on equity securities issued by private companies, which are at best guesses even if made in good faith, need to be discounted on a reliability scale when assessing whether the net asset value per share is accurate and the related issue of whether the discount is appropriate. I am not able to make any assessment on those valuations.
I am just aware that the issues exist and can not be answered with any degree of certainty, particularly by individual investors who do have have access to the financials and any recent trades in those private equity securities.
C. Added 10 MEGI at $12.93:
Quote: MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Term Fund Overview - A leveraged balanced CEF (mostly common stocks with some convertibles, bonds and preferred stocks)
Cost: $129.3
SEC Filing- Holdings as of 8/31/23
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Started MEGI - Bought 10 at $13.08 (12/16/23 Post)
Dividend: Monthly at $.125 per share ($1.5 annually)
MEGI Stock Dividend History & Date
New Average cost per share: $13.01 (20 shares)
Yield at New AC = 11.53%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/22/23
2. Small Ball Sells- Regional Bank Basket Strategy:
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
A. Eliminated DCOM - Sold 41+ DCOM at $27.09:
Quote: Dime Community Bancshares Inc. (DCOM)
Proceeds: $1,128.43
DCOM is a symbol change and name change from Bridge Bancorp (BDGE). Almost all of my profits realized in this stock originated when the company was called Bridge. Dime Community (DCOM) was acquired by Bridge who then changed its name and symbol after completing the acquisition.
DCOM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
DCOM Key Metrics Page at Reuters
Profit Snapshot: Net of $369.83
Some fractional shares purchased with 3 dividends were sold at small losses.
I have not been impressed with recent earnings reports.
Last Discussed: Item # 3. Eliminated Duplicate DCOM Position - Sold 5+ at (8/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = 20.51)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.C. Added to DCOM in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $17.85 (7/1/23 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last raised from $.24 effective for the 2023 second quarter. The dividend was raised to $.24 from $.23 effective for the 2020 first quarter. The $.23 per share quarterly dividend was in effect starting in 2005. I view this dividend history as highly unfavorable. The only positive is that the dividend was not cut from $.23 in 2008.
DCOM Stock Dividend History & Date
Next Ex Dividend: 1/16/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2022 third quarter
I am expecting the total unrealized loss in the owned securities to decline in the 4th quarter, but that will not impact earnings.
E.P.S. = $.34 down from $.98
Net Income: $13.87M
"Third quarter 2023 results include $8.9 million of aggregate pre-tax adjustments related to severance from the previously disclosed Chief Executive Officer succession and loss on equity securities. Excluding these items, adjusted net income available to common stockholders (non-GAAP) totaled $21.9 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2023, or $0.56 per diluted share" The severance cost was $8.562M. Given the size of that payment in relation to the total net income, I am not willing to accept that adjustment and consequently went with the $.34 per share GAAP number.
Adjusted Net Income: $21.87M
Adjusted E.P.S. $.56, unsatisfactory even if I was willing to make all of the adjustments.
NIM = 2.34%, down from 3.38%
I do not feel the need to go any further discussing this report.
Realized Gains BDGE/DCOM: +$3,050.74
The largest annual gain was $2,157.52 realized from two transactions in 2017. Item # 2.A. Sold 109+ BDGE at $35.53 (10/31/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,782.46) and Item # 2.A. Sold 50 BDGE at $35.03 (4/23/17 Post (profit snapshot = $376.06). The other sales were in the $21 to $25 range and produced realized gains ranging from $20.51 to $200.2.
B. Pared FISI - Sold 5 at $21.48 (Highest Cost lot - Schwab Account):
Quote: Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI)
FISI is a bank holding company that is the parent company of Five Star Bank which has branches in Central and Western New York.
FISI has a market capitalization about $332M at a $21.5 price and using the 15.462M diluted shares outstanding as of 9/30/23.
Proceeds: $107.4
Last Discussed Item # 1.G. Added to FISI - Bought 5 at $16.54; 5 at $15.7 (6/30/23 Post)
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23 (Investment security information can be found at pages 12-15)
FISI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: +$24.7
Remaining Lots:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share, last raised from $.29 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment.
Financial Institutions, Inc. (FISI) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
New Average cost per share: $15.09 (26+ shares)
Yield at New AC: 7.95%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/13/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2022 third quarter.
Net Income (available to common shareholders): $13.7M or $.88 per share, unchanged.
FISI has a preferred stock outstanding which has a preferential claim to cash compared to common shares. When an earnings report says "available to common shareholders", that is after the cash payment from net income is made to preferred shareholders. The total net income number was $14M.
NIM: 2.91%, down from 3.28%
Efficiency Ratio: 66.47%. up from 58.78% (up is a negative)
NPL Ratio: .21% (nonperforming loans to total loans)
Coverage Ratio: 521% (existing allowance for credit losses to non-performing loans)
NPA Ratio: .16%
Charge off ratio: .13%
Tangible Book Value per share: $20.69, up from $19.77
The primary negatives are the decline in NIM which was an industry wide problem in the third quarter and the efficiency ratio being too high. The NPL, NPA, Coverage and Charge Off ratios are all positives IMO.
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 1.F. Pared FISI - Sold 5 at $29.15 (4/17/2021 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.85); Item # 3.F. Pared FISI Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $20.6-highest cost lot (12/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $23.26); Item # 3 Sold 50 FISI at $24.71 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 8/21/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $442.07); Item # 2 Sold 51+ FISI at $24.1 (5/3/2015 Post)(profit snapshot = $254.18); Item # 5 Sold 50 of 150 FISI at $21.16 (10/11/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $59.15).
FISI Realized Gains to Date: $842.48
C. Eliminated MTB - Sold 1 at $140.1:
Quote: M&T Bank Corp. (MTB)
Proceeds: $140.1
Profit Snapshot: $25.8
Last Discussed: Item # 1.M. Bought 1 MTB at $114.3 (10/21/23 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.3 per share ($5.2 annually), last raised from $1.2 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment.
Last Ex Dividend: 8/31/23
Sell Discussions: Item # 3.B. Eliminated MTB - Sold 4 at $182.75 (2/24/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $141.91); Item # 2.O. Eliminated MTB in Fidelity Account-Sold 1 at $156.25; 2.62 at $160 (11/5/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $42.52)
MTB acquired People's United Bank in April 2022, formerly traded under the PBCT symbol. I profitably eliminated my PBCT position after the acquisition was announced but before consummation since I viewed MTB's stock to be overvalued. Item #3.A. Eliminated PBCT -Sold 62+ at $20.93 (2/24/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $580.1)
Maximum Position: 5 Shares
My primary problem with owning MTB is the nonperforming loans to total loans ratio ("NPL"). In the 2023 third quarter, the ratio was at 1.77%. My current best guess is that ratio will more likely significantly increase than significantly decrease due to MTB's commercial loan exposures.
3. Other Small Ball Common Stock/Stock Fund Purchases:
A. Bought 2 ES at $61.64; :
Quote: Eversource Energy (ES) - Utility Holding Company
Cost: $123.28
The wholly owned regulated utility subsidiaries are The Connecticut Light and Power Company ("CL&P), NSAR Electric, Public Service Company of New Hampshire ("PSNH"), Eversource Gas Company of Massachusetts, Yankee Gas Company and a water utility called Aquarion. Both CL&P and PSNH issue first mortgage bonds. (p.29, 10-Q, linked below) I do not currently own any of those FM bonds, but did own a PSNH FM that matured on 11/1/23.
The water segment earned $16.6M in the quarter.
"Eversource Energy’s natural gas distribution segment lost $33.7 million in the third quarter of 2023 and earned $148.2 million in the first nine months of 2023, compared with a loss of $24.6 million in the third quarter of 2022 and earnings of $147.2 million in the first nine months of 2022." Profits from natural gas distribution will be concentrated in the 4th and 1st quarters.
ES Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (As of 12/29/23, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2023 was $4.35; at $4.67 for 2024; and at $5 for 2025.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.68 per share ($2.72 annually)
Yield at $61.64: 4.41%
With short term interest rates currently projected to move down this year, I am starting to accept dividend yields in the 4% to 5% range.
Last Ex Dividend: 12/15/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Revenues: $2.791+B
Net Income; $339.663M
E.P.S. $.97
ES "narrowed its 2023 non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) projection to between $4.30 to $4.43 per share, compared with a previous range of $4.25 to $4.43 per share. Eversource Energy also reiterated its long-term EPS growth rate from its core regulated businesses solidly in the upper half of 5-7 percent, using the $4.09 per share earned in 2022 as a base."
Earlier last year, ES took "an after-tax impairment charge of $331.0 million, or $0.95 per share, related to Eversource Energy’s offshore wind investment". Offshore U.S. wind projects have mostly fallen into the troublesome category as construction expenses outpaced estimates for a variety of reasons including supply chain restraints and inflation.
Other News: Eversource Energy Closes on the Sale of Uncommitted Offshore Lease Area (9/7/23) This sale involved an "uncommitted lease area of approximately 175,000 developable acres located 25 miles off the south coast of Massachusetts to Ørsted for $625 million in an all-cash transaction.) The press release also includes an announcement that ES was attempting to sale its existing 50% in "three jointly owned contracted offshore wind projects (South Fork Wind, Revolution Wind, and Sunrise Wind) with a total capacity of 1,758 MW." The Revolution Wind (704MW) and Sunwise Wind (924MW) projects are still in the permit phase. South Fork (130MW), enough to power about 70,000 homes. One turbine entered into commercial operation last December and the remaining 11 are expected to produce power in "early 2024). The ongoing sale process, possibly described best as a fire sale, adds uncertainty.
SU Bond Ownership: I own several Eversource SU bonds.
Last Bond Offering (11/23): Prospectus (5.9% SU maturing in 2029)
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (11/30/23): 4 stars with a FV estimate of $74.
S&P (11/13/23): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $68. The analyst notes that Eversource decided in 2022 to exit its offshore wind developments. The analyst notes that an exit from those developments will allow ES to reduce the need for new debt, spend more on its regulated utilities and possibly avoid the need for dilutive equity offerings.
Argus (12/22/23): Buy with a PT of $85.
B. Started GVLU - Bought 10 at $21.91:
Quote Gotham 1000 Value ETF Overview
Cost: $219.1
Expense Ratio: .6%, starting on 1/31/24, up from .5% which had a .1% waiver up to 1/31/24.
Sponsor's website: GVLU - GothamETFs "The Gotham 1000 Value ETF (GVLU) is an actively managed ETF consisting of 400-600 securities selected from a universe of the largest 1,400 US securities, weighted towards those stocks priced at the largest discount to Gotham’s assessment of value."
Annual Report period ending 9/30/23.pdf
I recently discovered this ETF and had a vague memory associated with the word "Gotham" as a money management firm. My memory retrieval system is malfunctioning due to brain cell death.
After researching the issue, my memory cells containing the information were located and refreshed. My memory retrieval system is malfunctioning.
Gotham is co-managed by Joel Greenblatt who wrote a book that I read some years ago called The Little Book That Still Beats the Market. The book was originally published in 2005 and I read it shortly thereafter. Greenblatt focuses on buying stocks with a high adjusted earnings yield and a high return on capital. Those are important stock selection criteria along with free cash flow per share.
Some caution has to be used even for those valid selection criteria. For example, a small clinical stage biotech may rank high on an earnings yield screen only because it received a large upfront payment for a licensing deal for a compound that may or may not be approved years later. Another example would be earnings and free cash flow from a highly cyclical company near peak short term earnings.
Adjusted Earnings Yield = (Earnings Before Interest & Taxes + Depreciation – CapEx) / Enterprise Value (Market Value + Debt – Cash)
Unadjusted Earnings Yield: Earnings per share ÷ Stock Price.
Top 10 Holdings:
Dividends: Paid annual and variable
GVLU Stock Dividend History & Date
Many of the stocks owned by this fund will either pay no dividends or nominal ones. Stocks are apparently not selected with dividend yield as a selection criteria. The only way to generate a realized yield that is meaningful is sell shares at profit.
Last Ex Dividend: 12/22/23 The dividend was for $.3525 per share. At $21.91, using that annual dividend, the yield would only be 1.6%.
Fund Rebalancing: Frequent as described below
Purchase Restrictions: Up to 100 shares with each purchase required to reduce my average cost per share.
C. Added $100 to RHJSX at $22.46; $100 at $21.18:
Quote: Rice Hall James MicroCap Portfolio; Institutional Overview
Fund Sponsor's webpage: RHJ Micro Cap Portfolio
Net Expense Ratio: 1.25% until 2/28/24 then 1.76% without an extension of the waiver.
Morningstar classifies this fund in the small cap growth sector. I mostly ignore those kind of stocks for individual stock purchases.
An ETF alternative to this mutual fund is the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF (VGK), which had a ten year annual average total return of 7.86% through 2023. VBK – Performance| Morningstar
RHJSX has a 2 star rating from Morningstar and a ten year annual average total return of 6.63%. The largest annual return starting in 2013 was +$47.24 in 201 with the second and third best annual returns in 2016 and 2021 at 22.11% and 25.69%. The worst year during that period was in 2022 at -18.88%.
RHJSX – Portfolio – Rice Hall James Micro Cap Instl | Morningstar This page has a list of the top 25 holdings. I own none of them, which is one reason why I am adding to this fund, though my total position is tiny and will not exceed $2000. Buying this kind of fund is just a manifestation of my current stock investment approach which I describe as a mile wide and an inch deep.
Dividends: Paid annually. The fund has recently been tax inefficient. The per share dividends for 2017 through 2023 were $4.2616, $6.7145, $.3191, $8.0843, $2.1722 and $5.8214 last year. I am reinvesting the dividends.
Average cost per share: $22.91 (20+ shares)
Last 2 Dividend Payments:
The recent large dividends, which reduce net asset value per share, is responsible for the current unrealized loss on the shares. The total return is positive so far, but uninspiring.
Last Elimination: I previously eliminated a position in 2007 and have been circumspect in starting a new one given the recent performance.
Profit 164+ shares: $422.81 |
D. Bought 10 BTMD at $5.07; 5 at $4.76:
Quote: Biote Corp. (BTMD)
Cost: $74.5
"Biote is transforming healthy aging through innovative, personalized hormone optimization therapies delivered by Biote-certified medical providers." I more thorough summary of the businesses can be found in the 2022 Annual report at pages 5-14.
Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Dividends: None and none expected.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23): SEC Filed Press Release
Revenue: $45.557M, up 8.5% compared to the 2022 third quarter
Net Income of $19.65M or $.24 per diluted share
However, net income for the third quarter "reflected a $17.5 million gain due to a change in the fair value of the earnout liability." More details about that adjustment are available in the 10-Q at pagea 9 and 19. Ignoring that noncash contribution to earnings, net income is reduced to $2.15M or about $.069 per diluted share using the weighted average diluted share number of 31,041,245 for the third quarter.
Without going to details, I am ignoring that fair value adjustment when forming an opinion about earnings and the multiple to be applied. I believe the Stock Jocks are doing so also based on the current price.
E. Added 5 PLTK at $8:
Quote: Playtika Holding Corp. (PLTK)
Cost: $40
PLTK Key Metrics Page at Reuters
Some of the downside stock pressure may be originating from China cracking down on mobile gaming use. Reported shake-up in China's gaming industry after turmoil over new rules
I discussed this stock in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 4.A. Started PLTK - Bought 10 at $8.6 (12/30/23 Post)
Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy.
New Average Cost per share: $8.4 (15 shares)
F. Started KRG - Bought 5 at $22.49; 5 at $22.1:
Quote: Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG) - A REIT that owns, through its majority owned operating subsidiary (98.5%), "high quality, open-air shopping centers and mixed-use assets".
Cost: $222.93
5 shares bought the day before the ex dividend date and 5 shares the day after.
Portfolio as of 9/30/23:
Top 25 Tenants as of 9/30/23:
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23 (debt is discussed starting at pages 19-23)
This is my first purchase of the common stock. I own 2 Kite 4% SU bonds that mature on 3/15/25. That bond was originally issued by Retail Properties of America which was acquired by Kite. Bond Page | FINRA.org
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Average Cost per share: $22.29 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last raised from $.24 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
The quarterly dividend was slashed from $.3175 to $.052 effective for the 2020 third quarter payment. This was in response to the pandemic. The penny rate has been raised in steps since that slash.
Yield at AC = 4.49%, rounded up.
Last Ex Dividend: 1/4/24 (owned 5 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23):
SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
FFO of the Operating Partnership = $114.7M or $.51 per share (the $.51 is per diluted share and is adjusted down to account for the ownership interests of limited partners)
Leased Percentage: 93.4%, a 60 basis point decrease compared to the 2022 third quarter. The leased percentage from the Bed, Bath & Beyond closures is not fully reflected in this percentage.
Net Income to FFO:
AFFO: $75.466M or $.33 per share. I view AFFO as relevant cash flow for dividend coverage and valuation when the both the maintenance expenses and non-cash revenue created by the straight line accounting convention are both recurring and significant.
Guidance: 2023 FFO between $1.99 to $2.03.
4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $10,000 in principal amount
A. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 1/2/24 Auction:
183 Day BillMatures on 7/5/24
Interest: $51.29
Investment Rate: 5.264%
B. Bought 3 Treasury Bills at the 1/2/24 Auction:
91 Day Bill
Matures on 4/4/24
Interest: $26.52
Investment Rate: 5.404%
Interest: $41.11
Investment Rate: 5.418%
5. Small Ball Sells - U.S. Equity REIT Preferred Stocks:
Investment Category: Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in HTIA - Sold 20 at $17 (Schwab Account):
Quote: HTIA | Healthcare Trust 7.375% Cumulative Preferred Series A Overview
Issuer: SEC Filings
2022 Annual Report At page 16, the REIT states that it has not paid a cash dividend to common shareholders since 2020. The company summarizes conflicts related to its external management at pages 36-37.
This REIT is a private company that is externally managed by AR Global. I view that management company with much disfavor.
SEC filings are required since the REIT has issued publicly traded preferred stocks (HTIA, discussed here, and Healthcare Trust Inc. 7.125% Cumulative Preferred Series B (HTIBP) which I do not own.
Proceeds: $340
I am keeping the 25 shares held in my Fidelity account that have an average cost per share of $14.94. The yield at that AC is 12.34%. My next purchase will be no more than 5 shares, given my assessment of the risks which are confirmed in the dividend yield and price, and any further purchases must lower my average cost per share.
Profit Snapshot: Net of +$45.87
Last Ex Dividend: 1/4/24 (owned 25 in Fidelity account as of) I sold the shares in my Schwab account before the ex dividend date. The profit includes ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis and will be increased when the 2023 ROC adjustments are made. I did not attempt in this case to figure out how much those adjustments reduced my tax cost basis.
2023 3rd Quarter:
10-Q at page 49 |
Fees Paid to External Manage:
10-Q at page 36 |
Page 64, 10-Q |
Major Negatives: Poor operating results, management by AR Global, no common stock cash dividend which enhances the risk of a preferred stock owner, increased interest rate expense (see pages 21-24, 10-Q), and excessive fees IMO paid to the external manager. I do not see why anyone would invest in a private fund managed by AR Global. The common shares are illiquid. The REIT has suspended any offer to buy the shares staring in August 2020 (page 30, 10-Q)
B. Pared HPP.PRC - Sold 10 of 150 at $14.02:
Quote: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. 4.750% Cumulative Preferred Series C
I sold the highest cost lots that could be sold profitably. When HPP provides the tax characteristics of its 2023 dividends, I anticipate that return of capital ("ROC") adjustment to tax cost basis will increase the profit number. The amount of the total dividend classified as ROC will not be taxable as dividend income.
Proceeds: $140.2
Issuer: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. (HPP)
View All the HPP Properties | Hudson Pacific Properties
Par Value: $25
Dividends: Paid Quarterly and Cumulative
Old Average Cost per share: $12.9
New Average cost per share: $12.83 (140 shares)
Snapshot Intraday 1/4/24 after pare |
Yield at New AC: 9.5%
(.0475% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.21875 annual dividend per share ÷ $12.83 total cost per share = 9.4992%)
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/15/23 (owned all as of)
Profit Snapshot: +$2
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Added 20 HPPPRC at $12.5 (12/16/23 Post). This post has a broader discussion. Item # 5.A. Added 5 HPPPRC at $11.2; 5 at $11.73 (11/18/23 Post) I discussed the third quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
Recent News Since Last Discussion: Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. - Hudson Pacific and Macerich Complete $700 Million Sale of One Westside and Westside Two (1/3/23)("Hudson Pacific used net proceeds from the sale to repay amounts outstanding on its unsecured revolving credit facility. This transaction addresses the company’s debt maturities until December 2025, and further strengthens the company’s compliance with its unsecured revolving credit facility covenants as recently amended.") HPP had a 75% interest in the JV that owned the properties.
I have a duplicate position in my Schwab account, consisting of 40+ shares with an average cost per share at $11.30. I will probably eliminate that position sometime this year.
I own some common shares that are near breakeven. As discussed in prior posts, HPP was hit hard by the writers and actors strikes since it owns a number of studio production facilities. Redefining Studios in Los Angeles
The strikes, the rise in borrowing costs and weakness in the west coast office property market combined to cause a common stock dividend cut and then an elimination last year. HPP Stock Dividend History & Date HPP continued to pay the preferred dividend and is currently in better shape to continue doing so after the strikes ended and some office properties were sold with the proceeds used to pay down debt.
6. Exchange Traded Baby Bonds:
A. Added to ELC in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $21.3:
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Added to ELC Bought 10 at $21.93 in Vanguard Taxable; 5 at $21.78 and 5 at $21.6 in Schwab Account (12/23/23 Post)
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Par Value: $25
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Security: First Mortgage on substantially all assets
Call protection has expired.
Maturity: 9/1/2066 unless called earlier at issuer's option.
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment, even if bought the day before that date)
Last Ex Interest: 11/29/23
Credit Ratings: A2/A
Yield at New AC = 5.66%
Maximum Position in All Taxable Accounts: 300 shares
I have no concerns about the credit risk. Interest rate risk is substantial given the potentially long maturity.
7. Cash Flow Into Fidelity Account: 12/28-29/23 and 1/2/24:
Cash inflows consist of proceeds received from maturing bonds, CDs and treasuries, interest and dividend payments.
During catastrophic declines in the stock market, I will at a minimum invest cash flow received from interest and dividend payments. That was what I did for example between October 2008 into February 2009. I sold high quality investment grade bonds in early 2009, using the proceeds to buy stocks starting in February 2009 and dipped into my cash reserves to further increase the purchases beyond the dividend and interest cash flow numbers.
While my stock allocation is less than 20% of the total, buying during the inevitable meltdowns will allow me to recover more quickly and will increase my dividend yields assuming no cuts.
Bond, Treasury, CD Redemption Proceeds: $7,000 with the Capital One bonds and 1 of 2 DTE bonds being redeemed prior to maturity.
Tax Free Interest: $250 (all 5 bond lots)
Treasury Coupon Interest: $56.25 (bought in the secondary market at discounts to par value)
Corporate Bond Interest: $108.92 (light days) I own 229 corporate bonds in this account, enough to easily achieve a bond fund's diversity. Lot sizes range from 1 to 5 bonds.
Monthly CD Interest: $42.71
CD Interest Paid at Maturity: $39.55
Exchange Traded Bond ($25 par value) Interest: $15.31
Common Stock Dividends: $239.43
Preferred Stock Dividends: $59.46 (GOODN pays monthly)
MM Dividend: $66.73
Monthly CEF Payments: $88.57
Other CEF and ETF Payments: $33.18
Total Dividends and Interest Payments: $999.98
Total Inflow: $7,999.98
I eliminated MFIC in this account after the last ex dividend date. I currently own shares only in my Schwab account.
8. Cash Flow into Schwab Account: 12/29/23 & 1/1/2024
Schwab is slower than Fidelity in crediting incoming cash flow. The following snapshots includes amounts that were paid on 1/1/24 or earlier but were not credited until 1/2/24.
Redemption Proceeds: $6,000
Municipal Bond Interest: $526.25 (Federally Tax Free)
CD Interest (Monthly Payments): $58.79
Other CD Interest: $80.62 (paid at maturity)
Treasury Note Coupon Interest: $75 (paid-semiannually)
(Treasury Bills do not have coupons. The interest is the difference between par value and the purchase price)
Common Stock Dividends: $270.30
Equity Preferred Stock Dividends (quarterly): $58.42
(Equity Preferred stocks in the preceding snapshots: CTOPRA, GOODN, MBINP, REXPRC, SNVPRAE, TFINP, VLYPP and VNOPRM)
CEFs Monthly Dividends: $64.98 (BWG, EXG, IGR, JPC, GDO, KIO, MEGI, MIN, PPT,
CEFs Quarterly Dividends: $13.23 (BXMX, DPG, NMAI)
SNOXX (purchased MM Fund): $106.13
Exchange Traded Bond ($25 Par Value) Interest: $17.09 (EMP, SCCC)
Total Interest and Dividends: $1,329.6
Total Inflow = $7,329.6
This is my lightest account on corporate bonds. I own only 10 Arizona Public Service 3.35% SU bonds that mature on 6/15/24 and 10 Nextera Capital (guaranteed by Nextera) 2.94% SU bonds that mature on 3/21/24. This account is heavy in treasury bills.
My Fidelity account has the largest allocation to corporate bonds, owning 229 individual bonds.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I have posted a video.
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/01/iwb-or-cowz.html
I have started a YouTube video channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNkVS3xXen_7uOvh_Rs1A_w
I will be moderating comments there which means that some comments will end up being deleted.
I have published another video discussing cash flow numbers that are included in equity REIT reports. For REITs that own apartment buildings, offices and multi-tenant properties, the relevant cash flow number IMO is funds available for distribution as discussed in this video.
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/01/cash-flow-numbers-for-equity-reits.html
Comments to videos published at The France 24 (English) Channel on YouTube regarding the Ukraine War are now almost completely dominated by Russian trolls and bots. I mentioned in this post that Putin has ordered one of his thugs to disrupt France's support for Ukraine using social media channels and this has now become an epidemic.
ReplyDeleteThe commenters generally have no other information on their channels. Just click the user names. There may only be 1 or 2 Russians or Russian bots making the comments and then they like each others comments probably from multiple accounts driving the like comments to over 40. YouTube does not do anything to cut down on that type of activity but will delete my comments on occasion that simply makes some accurate observation about something Russia has done in Ukraine.
I will likely draw the Russians venom by confronting them as I did to this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_Er6CXgj1c&t=15s
The market is reacting negatively in trading so far today in response to Samsung's warning that weakening consumer demand will result in about a 35% drop in 2023 4th quarter operating profit compared to the 2022 4th quarter. Samsung experienced a difficult year in 2023, with operating profit plunging about 85% on just a 15% decline in revenues. I do not own the stock.
ReplyDeleteAnother chip stock, Microchip Technology (MCHP) issued a warning yesterday (1/8) that weakening demand will results in lower revenues.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/827054/000082705424000010/ex-991.htm
Sounds like a Samsung issue. Those aren't the type of numbers from slowed consumer demand.
DeleteIt's technically time for the market to pullback a tad after DOW hit highs. Maybe this is an excuse. It's not much of a reaction - so there's still plenty of market enthusiasm.
Land: I just published a video on YouTube discussing this issue:
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaCm5XRGFZ0
I can leave written comments just under the the YT Videos, not in the "comment" section. I quoted from Ben Graham and Warren Buffett on the stock market being a voting machine rather than a weighing machine.
I posted a video on my YT Channel that discusses the stock market as a voting and weighing machine, observations first developed by Ben Graham and expanded on by Warren Buffett that IMO is a rebuttal to what is known now as the Efficient Market Theory.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qtbz4_a2A3g
The market is efficient, it can just take a few years, 1-3years, sometimes 10 or 15 years.... :).
DeleteLand: Yes and may even be efficient pricing a stock at 11:30 A.M. CST o 1/10/24 or maybe the weighing machine will get it right in 1 year or 3 or 10. But for how long will that efficient price exist once it is found?
DeleteI bought MSFT in 2011 at $24.15, $25.02 and at $25.81. The price is currently at $377.09:
Microsoft Corp.
$377.09 +$1.29 +0.34%
Last Updated: Jan 10, 2024 at 9:31 a.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/msft?mod=search_symbol
Was the price efficiently determined by well informed and rational humans in 2011 or is it being done now? The strongest argument IMO is that both prices are derived by the voting machine. The current earnings estimate for 2024 is $10.99, probably a non-GAAP number but I did not check. The normalized free cash flow yield is about 2.5%.
That's a good point. How do you judge when it's efficient?
ReplyDeleteToday's moves downward, our news based. So I wonder if that research I was referencing, would identify it as such?
With inflation edging up, I expect it to be a few days of on and off downward movement. Take maybe I'll just a little wind out of the sail for a little while.
I earned $100 yesterday. I received a camera speeding ticket for 1 mi into their range. 11 mi over the 25mph speed limit in a city area. Went ahead and did a video hearing since the fee couldn't be increased. Lucked out with a good assessor.
My argument was that the camera maybe wasn't calibrated. But there was evidence that it was presented by the assessor. But it has room for error of plus or minus one mile an hour. So I think that was going to get it dismissed though he hadn't said yet. But he had commented that there were no other cars around and I wasn't endangering anyone. But then the reviewer noticed I posted a couple of pictures of the spot, and that the sign didn't meet requirements because it was bright yellow instead of white. Personally if it wasn't bright yellow I would never have noticed it. But meanwhile because it was illegal, that got it dismissed. $100 not required to be paid.
So far my prior stock sales of PPL, Intel, and Unum, we're not at the top dollar, but close enough before they started to come down to be a good decision for now. I may pick up some unm when it comes down more.
I don't remember if I mentioned that laz switched finally to dividends instead of the k-1 tax p process. It's been climbing since, because it's expected more stockholders will be willing to buy it. I'm deep underwater, but this is a plus.
Land: Efficient pricing takes into account objective metrics and a reasonable and fact based forecast for future earnings and free cash flow numbers (per share and FCF yield), which are arguably more important number than GAAP E.P.S. and Non-GAAP E.P.S.
DeleteThe tricky part is to estimate future earnings for a public company. Current and past financial metrics (E.P.S., free cash flow numbers, Price to Book, Price to Sales, revenues, etc) are known, provided they are not fraudulently based in some material respect.
As a general rule of thumb projecting the relevant metrics 5 or 10 years into the future based on the most immediate past results may result in underestimating or overestimating future earnings. The past may not be prologue to the future.
Many stocks are valued as if 20+% or so recent annual increases in earnings is sustainable long term which has rarely been the case over the past 100 years or so. New entrants enter the market (e.g. PayPal competitor Apple) and take market share and pressure profit margins, or the company loses its technological advantage due to another company making a better thingamajig. So when the assumption embedded in the stock price is 20%+ annual average growth over a long future period, the downside can be severe when results are reported that are inconsistent with that kind of growth projection.
I am currently not overly concerned about whether my fair value stock ranges prove to be accurate, since there is no way for me to know what the future will bring and my estimates are based on known and existing financial metrics. My concern is lessened further by the fact that my stock allocation is less than 20% of my brokerage accounts and much less than that on a total net worth calculation, and further by my focus on dividend income, reducing my risk in stocks through several trading techniques that I constantly describe here, and the relatively small exposure to each stock that lessens the downside in the event my valuation estimate proves to be too high based on unforeseeable future events.
Morningstar calculates fair value and usually my fair range is not that far off. Those reports can be accessed by Schwab customers.
Thanks!!!!
DeleteEversource Energy (ES)
ReplyDelete$56.75 -$1.61 -2.76%
Last Updated: Jan 11, 2024 at 1:30 p.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/es?mod=search_symbol
I recently discussed starting an ES position with just a 2 share buy at
Saturday, January 6, 2024 Post
Item # 3.A. Bought 2 ES at $61.64
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/01/bstz-btmd-dcom-elc-es-fisi-gvlu-htia.html
There were two primary reasons for this tepid purchase, and the reasons were sufficient to limit my risk then with a placeholder type purchase. One way to limit risks is just to limit the cash exposure.
The two reasons were the relatively low dividend yield, and more importantly, the brewing fiasco in the ES offshore wind projects that had already been written down significantly. ES was trying to unload 3 of them when the potential buyers would be demanding a huge price cut. One problem with those projects is that the projected costs for the ones in development has skyrocketed due in large part to inflation and supply chain problems causing delays.
ES announced the other day that it was taking another huge writedown:
" As a result of these fourth quarter developments, Eversource expects to record an after-tax other-than-temporary impairment charge in the range of $1.4 to $1.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. This range is an estimate and subject to change as Eversource prepares its financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2023. The impairment charge reflects our current estimate of the fair value of the projects and will not impact Eversource’s future cash flows or its current cash balances. Eversource will continue to make future cash expenditures for required cash contributions to the JV projects up to the time of the sale of its interest in these projects."
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72741/000110465924002248/tm242419d1_ex99-1.htm
I am not able to determine whether this latest writedown puts the dividend at risk for a cut. The stock is not showing signs of stabilization. I may at some point buy 3 more shares in 1 share lots starting at less than $55 price but would need certainty about the dividend before going higher than a 5 share position.
I have published a new post after changing my publication schedule to Friday from Saturday.
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/01/acco-bk-ebmt-gcow-khc-mfic-o-pflt-phg.html
For the reasons discussed in today's post, I will not be published a new post on 1/19/24 and will not be publishing another one until I have at least 10 stock transactions to discuss.
I am cranking up videos to discuss more current events as my $1K par value bond purchases become nonexistent and my stock purchases slow to a crawl.