Friday, January 26, 2024

AEP, BCBP, HBNC, KRG, MMT, OFS, OGE, OPBK, RYLD, UL, VLY, WSBC, WTBA

Economy

The first estimate of real GDP growth in the 2023 4th quarter was reported at a 3.3% annual rate, with the consensus estimate at 1.7% or 2% based on the service providing the number. 

Report: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Personal Consumption Expenditures: +2.8%


PCE Annual Inflation: 2.7%
PCE Annual Core Inflation: 3.2%

PCE Inflation in the 4th Quarter= 1.7% 

PCE Core Inflation in the 4th Quarter: 2% 

Discussed at GDP Q4 2023: The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter

Personal Income and Outlays, December 2023 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)


"The 0.5 percent increase in real PCE in December reflected an increase of 1.1 percent in spending on goods and an increase of 0.3 percent in spending on services (table 4). Within goods, the largest contributor to the increase was recreational goods and vehicles (led by software). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were health care (led by outpatient services) and financial services and insurance (led by financial service charges, fees, and commissions)"(emphasis supplied)

10 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 1/25/25: 2.29% 

10 Year Nominal at 4.14% as of 1/25/24, up from 3.79% as of 12/27/23

Resource Center | U.S. Department of the Treasury

I would not attribute the rise in the 10 year nominal yield of the past month to a change in inflation expectations but to the deluge of new treasury supply. 

Sometime in the future, there will be a untethering of nominal intermediate and long term treasury yields from inflation expectations due to the supply of new treasuries overwhelming demand. Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates | U.S. Department of the TreasuryTreasury details plans to step up size of bond sales to manage growing debt load and higher rates As previously discussed many times here and in a recent YT video, I anticipate that no meaningful effort will made to curtail U.S. budget deficits and parabolic increases in the total U.S. government debt that will eventually result in failed treasury auctions. U.S. Government Debt and Deficits - YouTube

+++

Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:

Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $10,000 in principal amount

Corporate Bonds: None

Individual Common Stocks: -$2,239.06

(Consisting of $3,046.9 in proceeds minus $807.84 in purchases)

The sales were regional bank stocks except for a small pare in OFS. 

Realized Gains Common Stocks: +$512.01

Stock ETF: +$81.7

Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds Discussed in this Post: -$2,157.36

Leveraged Bond CEF: +$229.5

2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds Discussed in Posts: -$8,379.01

++++

Trump and His Cult

RealClearPolitics-Election-2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Trump is leading Haley by 57.7%. 

RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden Using the average of all polls, Trump is currently leading Biden by 3.8%. None of the polls have Biden ahead. 

The Party of Malice - The Atlantic

GOP senators seethe as Trump blows up delicate immigration compromise Trump wants to make immigration into a major election issue, which would be significantly negated and hampered by a compromise bill becoming law. The immigration issue is a major negative for Biden's reelection and a major positive for Trump. A compromise is not possible given Trump's control over the republican party. It is more important to Donald that he beat Biden than solving or ameliorating a problem. It is all about Donald and his vengeance.  He has no principles in my opinion. 

Mitt Romney had this to say about the GOP's Dear Leader: "I think the border is a very important issue for Donald Trump. And the fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn’t want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it is is really appalling". 'Appalling': Romney accuses Trump of trying to stop bill to blame Biden - YouTube

Trump does have a good reptilian mind on how to manipulate voters. 

Republicans have linked approval of aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan on the Democrats accepting all of their demands on immigration without offering any concessions such as a pathway to citizenship for the DACA children.  

Nikki Haley questions whether Trump is ‘mentally fit’ after he confuses her with Nancy Pelosi

Ken Burns on why the Republican Party completely changed  - YouTube

Appeals court declines to reconsider dispute over Trump gag order, teeing up potential Supreme Court fight - CBS News

++++ 

Putin and His Orwellian Empire of His Misery

Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war

Ukraine 'blows up Russian Black Sea oil terminal' - YouTubeUkrainian kamikaze drone strikes Russian oil depot '45 miles from Putin's palace' - YouTube This is the Tuapse oil depot in Russia's Krasnodar region. 

Russian Infrastructure Crumbling as it Spends Billions on Murdering Ukrainians. - YouTube

Ukrainian drone attack causes huge fire at Russian oil depot - YouTubeRussia gas terminal burns in suspected drone attack- YouTube

Factory that Makes Pantsir SAM Systems Hit by Multiple Drones in Tula, Russia - YouTube

Nearly 30 Russian Vehicles Destroyed Near Terny in January - YouTube

'Putin needs war' in Europe, NATO must prepare to stop Russia | Dr Jamie Shea - YouTube

++++

1. Common Stock, CEF and ETF Small Ball Buys:

I am adding some dividend paying stocks just in case the FED does lower the FF rate by 75 basis points this year. I am easing slowly into positions.  

A. Added to KRG - Bought 5 at $21.25

Quote: Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)

Cost: $106.23 

KRG SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Last DiscussedItem # 2.F. Started KRG - Bought 5 at $22.49; 5 at $22.1 (1/6/24 Post) I discussed the 2023 third quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental

New Average cost per share: $21.95

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share

KRG Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at New AC: 4.56%, rounded up. 

Last Ex Dividend: 1/4/24 (owned 5 as of)

B. Added to OGE - Bought 5 at $32.92; 5 at $32.65


Quote: OGE Energy Corp

Cost $327.85

OGE SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23 

OGE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

OGE Energy Profile

Last DiscussedItem # 1.B. Restarted OGE -Bought 5 at $34.84 (12/2/23 Post) I discussed the 2023 third quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release

New Average cost per share: $33.47 (15 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.4182 ($1.67 annually), last raised from $.4141 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment. 

Dividend History | OGE Energy Corp.

Yield at New AC: 4.99%

Last Ex Dividend:  1/5/24

Last EliminationItem # 2.D. Eliminated OGE - Sold 2 at $38.29; 5 at $38.87; and 8 at $38.52 (4/14/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $75.3) 

C. Restarted AEP - Bought 1 at $78.41; 1 at $77.38; 1 at $76.98:

Quote: American Electric Power Co.

Cost: $232.76 

AEP is a utility holding company and a component of the S&P 500. Its operating subsidiaries include AEP Texas, AEP Transmission, Appalachian Power Company, Kentucky Power Company, Indiana Michigan Power Company, Ohio Power Company, Public Service of Oklahoma, Southwestern Power Company and Wheeling Power Company.   

2022 Annual Report 

AEP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

AEP SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23 

AEP Profile Page at Reuters

AEP Key Metrics Page at Reuters 

Investors Relation Page

Investment Categories: Bond Substitute and Dividend Growth

Last EliminationItem # 2.A. Eliminated AEP - Sold 3 at $95.5 (4/14/22 Post) 

Average Cost per share: $77.59  (3 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.88 ($3.52 annually), last raised from $.85 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment. In 2013, the dividend rate was at $.50 in the 4th quarter. 

AEP Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at AC: 4.51%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/9/23

Next Ex Dividend: 2/8/23

AEP Declares Quarterly Dividend on Common Stock ("AEP has paid a cash dividend on its common stock every quarter since July 1910")

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23): SEC Filed Press Release 

Revenues: $5.3417B 

GAAP E.P.S. $1.83

Non-GAAP E.P.S. $1.77, up from $1.62 in 2023 3rd Q.

Consensus non-GAAP at $1.7 per Schwab

Non-GAAP Net Income: $923.8M 

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

Reaffirmed long term growth target of 6% to 7%

Last Bond Offering (12/23): Prospectus for $1B 5.2% SU maturing in 2029 

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (11/30/23): 4 stars with a fair value estimate of $90

S&P (12/18/23): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $90, lowered from $94 based on "somewhat weaker near-term E.P.S. and dividend growth trajectories".  

Argus (12/15/23): Buy with a $106 target price. 

Goal: Dividend and a capital gain of more than 2% on an annual basis. 

D. Added to UL - Bought 3 at $47 - Fidelity Account

Quote: Unilever PLC ADR

Cost: $141

Ordinary Shares: Unilever PLC (U.K.: London)

British Pound to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

ADR Ratio: 1 to 1

Unilever will release its next earnings report on 2/8/24. E.P.S. is reported only on a semiannual basis. The last report for the Q/E 9/30/23 did not include earnings but only information relating to revenues. SEC Filing Sales growth for that quarter was reported at +5.2% derived from a 5.8% increase in prices and a .6% decline in volume. 

Unilever ADRs use to trade under both the UL and UN symbols, with the later being the Unilever based in the Netherlands whose ordinary shares were traded in Euros. The two entities combined with UL being the surviving ADR with its ordinary shares traded in British Pence. Completion of Unilever’s Unification | Unilever The U.K. does not currently withhold a dividend tax. I do have to pay a fee out of the dividend to the ADR custodian

Last DiscussedItem # 1.E. Bought 2 UL at $47.16  (11/25/23 Post)Item # 2.F. Added to UL - Bought 1 at $48.12; 3 at  $48.36 (11/18/23 Post) 

UL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

All brands | Unilever global company website

Investors-Unilever

New Average Cost per share: $50.45 (40+ shares)

Dividends: Paid Quarterly


The USD dividend will depend in part on the exchange rate. 

I am reinvesting the dividend.  

Last Ex Dividend: 11/16/23

Last 4 Dividends in USDs: $1.8179 per share 

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 5.A. Eliminated UL in Vanguard Account - Sold 8 at $55.33 (4/29/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $34.47 )

UL/UN Realized Gains to Date$3,648.06 (snapshots in Item # 5.A.) 

Largest Gain: 70 shares at a +$2,412.5 profit, bought in March 2009. 

E. Added to RYLD - Bought 5 at $16.34 - Schwab Account


Quote: Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF - A Buy/Write ETF

Cost: $81.69 

Sponsor's website: Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD)

Expense Ratio: .6% 

"The Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD) follows a “covered call” or “buy-write” strategy, in which the Fund buys the stocks in the Russell 2000 Index (at times by exposure to the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF), and “writes” or “sells” corresponding call options on the Russell 2000 Index."

Investment Strategy: Monthly Income Generation 

Last DiscussedItem # 3.H. Added to RYLD in Schwab Account- Bought  5 at $16.65 (12/23/23 Post) 

Average cost per share: $17.52 (60+ shares)

Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate.

Last 12 Dividends:$2.09 per share, rounded up. 

Last  Ex Dividend: 1/23/24

Yield at $17.52 AC using $2.09 annual = 11.93%

Yield at $16.34: 12.79%

F. Restarted MMT - Bought 50 at $4.59

Quote: MFS Multimarket Income Trust Overview - Leveraged Bond CEF

Cost: $229.5 

MMT SEC Filings 

Sponsor's Website: Multimarket Income Trust | MFS (As of 12/31/23, the number of owned securities was at 751 with an average effective duration of 5.83 years)

MFS Multi-Market Income (MMT)-Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)

MMT SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 10/31/23 

Leveraged: Yes, near 25% using money borrowed at spreads to a short term rate, see page 80 of the Annual Report. 

The fund may take long and short positions using derivatives. 

Credit Quality of Investments as of 10/31/23, page 2 Annual Report:


Multisector Bonds Fund:  

P. 1 Annual Report

The fund is heavily weighted in junk rated securities as shown in the previous to snapshots. 

I published a YouTube video discussing the use of several CEFs to generate monthly income. Generating Monthly Cash Flow with CEFs - YouTube

In that video, I mentioned MMT, claiming incorrectly that I then owned shares. I had confused MMT with another bond CEF from the same sponsor, MIN, that I did own. I call those periodic episodes brain malfunctions caused by a malfunctioning memory retrieval system. 

Since I said that I owned MMT in that video, and did not, I bought this 50 share lot. I have owned MMT in the distant past. 

Dividends: Paid monthly and ROC supported. Monthly dividends are slightly variable. MMT Stock Dividend History & Date

Yield at $4.58, Using TTM Payments: 8.6%  

Last Ex Dividend: 1/16/24

Last Elimination:  Item # 3. Sold 300 MMT at $7.57 (4/30/2013 Post)(profit snapshot = $217.15) 

Data Date of 1/23/24 Trade:

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $5.03

Closing Market Price: $4.57

Discount: -9.15%

Average 3 Year Discount: -4.55%

Sourced: MMT - CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)

Other Sell DiscussionsItem # 5. Sold 300 MMT at $7.09 (1/29/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.66) Item # 2. Sold 300+of the Bond CEF MMT at $6.83 (1/19/12)(profit snapshot =  $84.07); Item # 5. Sold 300 of 1000 MMT at $6.89 (7/21/2011 Post)(profit snapshot $64.1) 

Goal: Any total return before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis in excess of the dividends paid. 

Realized Gains MMT = $391.98

 2. Purchases of Treasury Bills at Auction

A. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 1/22/24 Auction

6 month Bill 

Matures on 7/25/24

Interest: +$50.76

Investment Rate: 5.237

B. Bought 1 Treasury Bill at the 1/23/24 Action

1 Year Bill (364 days)

Matures on 1/23/25

Interest: $46.21

Since I will hold this T Bill until it matures in 2025, the interest income will not be taxable only in the year that the T Bill matures and will be included in my 1099 from the Treasury for that year. 

Investment Rate: 4.814%

C. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at 1/24/24 Auction

119 Day Bill

Matures on 5/28/24

Interest: $34.28 

Investment Rate: 5.363

D. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 1/25/24 Auction

To fund this purchase in my Schwab account, I used $5,000 in proceeds that were received from a matured treasury bill.  

The Schwab sweep account pays only .45%, so I do not keep idle cash there for long. 

56 Day Bill

Matures on 3/26/24

Interest: $41.03

Investment Rate: 5.407%

3. Small Ball Sells

So far, I am reacting negatively to most of the 2023 4th quarter earnings reports from regional banks. 

NIM remains under downside pressure. Loan growth has slowed. There is an uptick in nonperforming loans and charge offs. And, the larger banks have been hit with assessment fees from the FDIC which I discussed in my last post. FDIC finalizes $16.3 billion special assessment to recover loss from SVB and Signature Bank failures | Davis Polk I am slightly reducing my allocation in this sector as a result, as discussed in Items A., B.,C., D. and E. below.  

I discussed at the end of this video that I had reduced my exposure to regional bank stocks. 4th Q Real GDP and PCE Inflation - YouTube

Regional Bank Basket Strategy

The consensus estimates referenced below originate from Fidelity. 

A. Eliminated OPBK - Sold 124+ at $11.03

Quote: OP Bancorp

Proceeds: $1,102.73

OPBK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

OPBK SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: +$103.31

Last DiscussedItem # 3.D. Added to OPBK - Bought 5 at $8.25 (5/13/23 Post)Item # 1.F. Added to OPBK - Bought 5 at $8.9; 5 at $8.65 (4/8/23 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share

OP Bancorp (OPBK) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Last Ex Dividend: 11/8/23

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23): 

SEC Filed Press Release I sold prior to this release.  

Comparisons are to the 2022 4th quarter. 

E.P.S. $.34, down from $.51

Consensus at $.34

NIM = 3.12%, down from 4.08%

Efficiency Ratio: 60.19%, up from  48.36% (up is a negative)

NPL Ratio: .34%, up from .12%

Charge off Ratio: .04%

B. Eliminated VLY - Sold 31+ at $10.83

Quote: Valley National Bancorp  (VLY)

Proceeds: $340.92 

VLY | Valley National Bancorp Analyst Estimates

VLY SEC Filings

2022 Annual Report

Profit Snapshot: +$110.71

Last DiscussedItem # 2.G. Added 4 VLY at $6.98; 1 at $6.7 (5/20/23 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.11 per share

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Dividend HistoryUnfavorable 

The last change in the dividend was to slash it to $.11 from $.165 effective for the 2014 first quarter payment.

Last Ex Dividend: 12/14/23

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23): This report was released the day after I eliminated my position. I viewed it unfavorably. There is not much to like.

Comparisons are to the 2023 4th quarter. 

SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.13, down from $.34

GAAP E.P.S. included the FDIC special assessment, discussed in my prior post, that amounted to $35.053M net of tax.   

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.22

Consensus at $.25 per share

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 


NIM = 2.82%, down from 3.57%

NPL Ratio: .58%

Charge off ratio: .14%

Coverage Ratio: 152.93%

Deposits: Decreased $642.5M to $50.2B as of 12/31/23 compared to 9/30/23

Short term borrowings increased $828M to $917.8M mainly due to increase borrowings from FHLB. 

Some Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.M. Eliminated VLY in Fidelity Account - Sold 15+ at $11.76 and Item # 2.N. Eliminated VLY in Vanguard Account - Sold 15 at $11.75 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $134.03);Item # 1.A. Eliminated VLY-Sold 102+ at $10.51 (9/11/2019 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.12); Item # 2.A. Eliminated VLY Sold 51+ VLY at $12.76 (7/25/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $98.62) Some sales were not discussed but snapshots are included in the main Regional Bank Basket Strategy post linked above.  

Largest Gain: $197.85 in 2016

213+ shares 

VLY Realized Gains to Date: $666.21

Current Position: None

Consider to Buy: A less than $8 starting with a 10 share buy. 

C. Eliminated HBNC in Schwab Account - Sold 20+ at $13.73

Quote: Horizon Bancorp Inc.  (HBNC)

Proceeds: $282.9

HBNC Analyst Estimates

HBNC SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: +$81.43

Last DiscussedItem # 2.K. Added to HBNC - Bought 3 at $7.76(5/20/23 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.16 per share, last raised from $.15 effective for the 2022 third quarter payment. 

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Last Ex Dividend: 1/4/24 (owned as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23): 

SEC Filed Press Release

Comparisons are to the 2022 4th quarter.  

GAAP E.P.S.: Net Loss of $.58 per share, down from +$.48. 

"The results for the fourth quarter of 2023 when compared to the linked quarter reflect a decrease in non–interest income of $32.3 million due primarily to a $31.6 million net loss on the sale of securities, and increases in credit loss expense of $1.0 million, income tax expense of $5.1 million due to the early surrender of bank owned life insurance, and non–interest expense of $3.2 million including $705,000 of extraordinary items." (emphasis added) 

The balance restructuring involved the sale of $382.7M in lower-yielding securities at a loss. 

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.33   

Consensus at $.307 per share

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

NIM: 2.43%, down from 2.85%

NPL Ratio: .44%

Charge Off Ratio: .02%

NIM may start to improve some in 2024 as the bank earns more from higher yielding owned securities. My reaction to this report was sufficiently unfavorable that I elected to harvest the profit. If NIM makes a significant improvement during 2024, with E.P.S. trending up and non-performing loans to total loans remaining steady at near .4%, I will consider restarting a position at less than $10 per share. 

Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.C. Eliminated HBNC in Fidelity Account - Sold 15+ at $15.02 and Item # 1.D. Eliminated HSBC in Vanguard Account-Sold 20 at $15.05 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $169.85); Item # 1.C. Pared HBNC in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $17.02 (2/20/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.09); Item # 2 Sold 60 HBNC at $24.96 (4/30/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $429.68); Item # 3.C. Sold Highest Cost HBNC Lots-10 at $14.25; 5 at $14.8 (12/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $46.53)

Current Position: None

HBNC Realized Gains to Date$757.58

D. Eliminated BCBP in Schwab Account - Sold 35+ at $13.11

Quote: BCB Bancorp Inc. (BCBP)

Proceeds: 471.55

BCB Bank Locations

BCBP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

BCBP SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: $52.89

Last DiscussedItem # 2.G. Bought 5 BCBP at $10.72 (4/23/23 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.16 per share ($.64 annually), last raised from $.14 effective for the 2020 second quarter. 

BCB Bancorp, Inc. (NJ) (BCBP) Dividend History | Nasdaq

Next Ex Dividend: 2/2/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23): 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Comparisons are to the 2022 4th quarter. 

E.P.S. = $.35, down from $.69

Consensus at $.31 per share

2023 Diluted E.P.S. = $1.7, down from $2.58 in 2022. 

NIM = 2.57%, down from 3.76% 

Efficiency Ratio: 61.02%, up from 51.33% (up is a negative)

NPL Ratio: .57%, up from .17%

Tangible Book value per share: $16.84, up from $15.96

I had a negative reaction to this report. The discount to tangible book value per share is appealing but the deterioration in operating metrics will keep me away until I see improvement and a better entry price than now.  

E. Eliminated WTBA - Sold 20+ at $20.52

Quote: West Bancorp Inc. (WTBA)

Proceeds: $421.38

WTBA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

WTBA SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: +$86.56

Last DiscussedItem # 1.H. Added to WTBA - Bought 5 at $15.79 (10/21/23 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share

WTBA Dividend History | Nasdaq

Next Ex Dividend: 2/6/24  

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23): I sold the day before this earnings report. 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Comparisons are to the 2022 4th quarter. 

E.P.S. = $.27, down from $.53

Consensus $.31 per share  

A continuation of this kind of E.P.S. would make a dividend slash prudent in my opinion. 

NIM: 1.87%, down from 2.49%

Efficiency Ratio: 64.66%, up from 50.42% (bad)

NPL Ratio: .01% (Excellent)

Current Position: None

WTBA Realized Gains to Date: $1,394.43

Largest Gain to DateItem # 3.A. Sold 100 WTBA at $23.12 (4/29/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,146.24) - Bought 100 WTBA at $11.67 (6/29/13 Post)

F. Eliminated WSBC - Sold 10 at $30.72

Quote: WesBanco Inc.  (WSBC)

Proceeds: $307.21

Profit Snapshot: +$55.52

Last DiscussedItem # 1. Restarted WSBC - Bought 4 at $25.69; 2 at $25.27; 3 at $25.4  (9/16/23 Post) 

WSBC SEC Filings

WSBC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share ($1.4 annually)

WSBC Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Last Ex Dividend: 12/7/23

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23): 

SEC Filed Press Release

Comparisons are to the 2022 4th quarter. 

Net Income: $32.437M, down from $49.679M

E.P.S. = $.55, down from $.84

NIM: 3.14%, down from 3.2%

Efficiency Ratio: 63.64%, up from 59.93% (up is a negative)

NPL Ratio: .23%

Charge off ratio: .04%

ROTE ex items: 13.24%, down from 15.5%

Tangible Book Value per share: $21.28 

G. Pared OFS Again in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $12.02

Quote: OFS Capital Corp - Externally Managed BDC

2022 Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 28 and ends at page 62)

OFS SEC Filings

I recently discussed paring my OFS position in my Fidelity account which reduced my average cost per share to $3.82 and increased my dividend yield to 35.6%Item # 3.D. Pared OFS in my Fidelity Account - Sold 8+ at $11.81 Fi(1/20/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $60.72) 

I discussed the last earnings report in this post. Item # 1.B. Pared OFS in Schwab Account - Sold  20 at $11.51 (12/30/23 Post)SEC Filed Press ReleaseOFS Capital Corporation  Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript - Insider Monkey

I will not be adding much here. I decided to keep both positions and simply reduce the size as a risk reduction measure, recognizing that BDC stocks are inherently risky and will periodically crash and burn. The average cost per shares in my Schwab and Fidelity accounts highlight that crash phenomenon and also the potential reward for investing in them during such periods. 

Proceeds: $120.21 

Profit Snapshot: +$21.59

Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share ($1.36 annually)

I am not reinvesting the dividend. 

New Average Cost per share this Account: $6.08 (81+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 1/24/24 after pare

I reduced my average cost per share from $6.44 to $6.08.  

Yield at New AC: 22.37%

Last Ex Dividend: 12/21/23

OFS Realized Gains to Date: $766.51

Goal: Any total return before any ROC adjustment to the tax cost basis in excess of the dividends. 

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members. 

9 comments:

  1. I was expecting a punitive damage award against Donald that would be over $10M.

    The jury came back with a $65M punitive damage award against Donald and did so quickly. Another $18.3M was awarded to Carroll in compensatory damages. Some of the compensatory damages may end up being set off against the damages awarded in the first trial (e.g. reputational repair).

    Maybe this latest verdict will shut Donald up from continuing to claim that Carroll lied about being sexually assaulted by Donald.

    Donald claimed after the verdict was returned that this civil case brought by Carroll in 2019, when Trump was President, was a Biden Directed Witch Hunt focused on me and the Republican Party." I guess that kind of idiotic claim works on the intended audience as does tens of thousands of others made by him.

    Donald further asserted that "Our Legal System is out of control, and being used as a Political Weapon. They have taken away all First Amendment Rights. THIS IS NOT AMERICA!"

    Donald may be unaware the libel and slander are not protected "First Amendment Rights" and that has always been the case. He was hit with a massive punitive damage award since he continued to repeat the defamatory statements notwithstanding an earlier jury verdict that they were defamatory. He would not shut up. Maybe he will learn in the coming months that he is not above the law and will be held accountable by the justice system for many acts.

    I doubt that Trump will be successful in appealing this latest verdict. The liability issue was decided in Carroll's favor by virtue of the collateral estoppel legal doctrine which prevented the relitigation of the defamation issue which had been decided in Carroll's favor by the first jury verdict.

    The Second Circuit ruled last month that Donald had waived the Presidential immunity defense by failing to plead it in an Answer to Carroll's Complaint. Brain dead lawyering. I doubt that the Supreme Court would take up an appeal on this kind of mundane civil procedure issue. Affirmative defenses, other than subject matter jurisdiction, are waived unless they are asserted in an Answer. The Judge denied leave to amend the answer to include that defense, made up 2 years or so after filing, which was reviewed by the Second Circuit under an abuse of discretion standard which is almost impossible to overturn and the appellate court declined to do so. If the Supreme Court does take up this issue, it will be widely derided in legal circles as engaging in home cooking for a republican.

    If Trump is going to have success on appeal, he needs to convince an appellate court to throw out the first jury verdict on the defamation issue. The only avenue for that reversal, which is not a good one, is to convince the appellate court that prejudicial errors were made in in admitting evidence.

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  2. I sold Intel at slight loss. Was seeing articles about it's taking the lead in microchips and other positives on it. Thinking I'd sold too soon. Today was hard on Intel -11+% .

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  3. Will listen to the portfolio positioning soon.

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    1. Land: A lot of my portfolio positioning in my stock allocation involves risk mitigation. I am not thinking long term at my age, and I do not have to take risks.

      In this post, I discussed reducing my regional bank stock allocation as a response to what I was seeing so far in the 2023 4th quarter earnings reports.

      If I do not like what I am seeing, I will not hesitate to hit the sell button, even though it is possible that some of the negative trends will reverse themselves into positive ones down the road.



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  4. Finally I'm signed in and able to post.

    Thanks! Preservation makes sense.

    I don't really understand the current rally. I'm enjoying it. But figuring out what to sell off, crosses my mind.

    Related to banks - insurance companies. My niece is looking at actuarial work. Says friends are having trouble getting jobs out of college. Companies are supposedly putting out fake job positions, so they can downsize without looking like.

    I thought it might be connected to the banking sector, but quick search finds articles:

    WSJ:
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiHz5b_7IaEAxVtF1kFHfc5AAUQFnoECBcQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fthat-plum-job-listing-may-just-be-a-ghost-3aafc794&usg=AOvVaw3P9sV3FRzd9gIwBBUwErP6&opi=89978449

    CBS
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/job-openings-fake-listings-ads-federal-reserve-jolts/

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  5. Painful report from Vanguard. Nearly nothing is cap gains because it's the interest types. This is will be a big tax bill, with too much of this vaporizing. I thought I sold at a loss but I must have not gotten to it in the last year's days with my personal stuff going on. Dreamt it?

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    1. Land: Most of my dividend income in my Vanguard taxable account originates from its Federal MM fund that receives interest payments from the U.S. government entities. About 50% of that account is invested in that money market mutual fund. The dividends paid by those funds will be classified as interest payments. There would not have any favored tax classification such as long term capital gains or qualified dividend income. The after tax yield is the relevant number. The real after tax yield for me is still positive which has been a rarity for the past 20 years or so.

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  6. I have published a new post:
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/02/aod-cpf-eqr-ffhprfca-fhb-fnlc-fsco-glw.html

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