Economy:
The January Empire State (NY) manufacturing index, published by the NY FED, was reported at -43.7%, down from -14.5% in the prior month. Any number below zero indicates an ongoing contraction. The new orders component dropped 38.1 points to a negative 49.4. The Shipment component declined by 24.9 points to 31.3. Empire State Manufacturing Survey (overview)
New Orders Chart:
Goldman Sachs offers 10 reasons why it’s more confident about the U.S. economy - MarketWatch (subscription required)
Consumer sentiment surges while inflation outlook dips, University of Michigan survey shows; Surveys of Consumers ("Consumer sentiment soared 13% in January to reach its highest level since July 2021, showing that the sharp increase in December was no fluke.")
December existing home sales slump to close out worst year since 1995 One factor contributing to that slump is that homeowners, who have locked in low mortgage rates long term, are more likely to stay put rather than to sell their existing home and to buy another one that requires a higher mortgage rate.
China's working age population is shrinking The demographic crisis in Russia is much more severe and probably irreversible.
As of 1/19/24, the Atlanta Fed's GDP model estimates that the real GDP growth in the 2023 4th quarter will be 2.4%. GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
++++
IBond:
I bonds interest rates — TreasuryDirect
I discussed the IBond in a recent YT video. IBond I Will Add to Position - YouTube After noting that the fixed rate for a current purchase was 1.3%, I decided to make another purchase. My enthusiasm waned some since posting that video, so I entered an order to buy $2,500.
I now intend to redeem an original purchase of $5,000 made in June 2019 when I can do so without incurring a penalty. The fixed rate was .5%.
The total was last reported at $6,076 (interest added semiannually). I believe the total excludes the last 3 months interest in case the owner elects to redeem prior to the 5 year holding period.
I can elect when to redeem the IBond, collect the interest and then pay tax on it. That could be done in a year when I have a significant reduction in taxable income or simply a better fixed rate than the one that I have owned for more than 5 years.
I mentioned that I redeemed the original principal amount of $3,000 last year and just added the $776.60 in interest in TurboTax.
++++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Yield Curve January 2024:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: +$15,000
I will only buy 1 one year treasury bill that will be auctioned next Tuesday given the expected yield. I have placed an order to buy 2 six month bills. I will probably participate in the 4 month T Bill auction next Wednesday rather than 3 month auction next Monday.
Individual Common Stocks: -$2,301.12
(consisting of $2,350.37 in proceeds minus $49.25 in purchases)
Stock CEFs and ETFs: -$1,079.79
(consisting of $1,818.57 in proceeds minus $738.78 in purchases)
Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds (discussed in this post): -$3,380.91
U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks: -$755.57
Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks: -C$2,646
2024 Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds (discussed in posts): -$6,221.65
2023 Net Outflow Common Stocks Stock Funds (discussed in posts): -$27,091.82
+++
Stock Market Valuation Metrics:
S&P 500 PE Ratio - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends (Based on trailing 12 months); S&P 500 PE Ratio by Year - Multpl
S&P 500 PE Ratio - Shiller PE Ratio | Longtermtrends
J.P. Morgan S&P 500 Valuation Metrics as of 12/31/23
The Buffett Indicator: Market Cap to GDP - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: December 2023 - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
The market is overvalued by 9-10%, says NYU's Aswath Damodaran - YouTube
++++
Trump and His Party:
RealClearPolitics-Election-2024 Republican Presidential Nomination In the average of all polls, Trump is leading his nearest opponent by 54.6%.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden In the average of all polls, Trump is leading Biden by 2%. The Harvard-Harris poll has Trump up by 6%.
Biden needs to makes concessions on immigration. That would mean figuring out what a majority of Americans would view as a good compromise, offering the package to Republicans and then let the House republicans turn it down for political reasons in an election year. The next step would be to repeatedly hammer the republicans for their unwillingness to accept a reasonable compromise and their unwillingness to approve those aid packages unless they get everything they want on immigration which is what Trump wants them to do. Senate braces for Trump to try to kill its border-Ukraine deal - Live Updates-POLITICO Then, blame the republicans for the illegal immigration due to their unwillingness to compromise, plus their refusal to approve the aid packages, pounding the message home in every medium possible including national campaign ads. Biden needs to go on the offense as soon as the Senate approves a compromise and the House balks.
Trump escalates attacks on Haley as he seeks New Hampshire knockout | CNN Politics Trump is amplifying a false claim that Haley is disqualified from becoming President, even though she was born in South Carolina, because her parents were not U.S. citizens when she was born which is not relevant to citizenship.
This article describes how republicans are disrupting the voting process in an Arizona county that is already dominated by Trumpsters. Not MAGA enough: 2020 election skeptic quit his job after facing blowback from angry election deniers Facts do not matter to them, and never will.
'The fix was in': Trump continues barrage against E. Jean Carroll and judge in her case - Raw Story His statements quoted in that article are consistent IMO with someone who has never matured into an adult.
Opinion | In Iowa, Trump’s politics of untruthfulness take in DeSantis and Haley - The Washington Post The question posed in this article is whether Trump's prior success in replacing accurate information with demonstrably false statements and narratives will continue to work on the intended audience. Trump has proven without question that making false statements about almost everything is a clear path to political power in the U.S.
Long before Trump decided to become a Presidential candidate, I published a post on "Lying Works" back in 2008 and 2011 and nothing has changed since then. {The Road to Political Power: Lying Works/Recent Gold and Silver Sales (9/15/2011 Post) andAccurate Information is Not a Side to an Issue - Lying Works In Politics (12/21/2008)}
‘Trump is a piece of s***’ Meghan McCain slams Trump after mocking her father…again - YouTube
Opinion | The Last Remnants of the Republican Party Died in Iowa - The Washington Post
Federal judge rules ban on firearms in post offices unconstitutional | The Hill
If Trump WAS Sent by God... - YouTube (new song composition from a YouTube content creator)
Trumper: I Haven't Read A Book Since The Berenstain Bears - YouTube
Selling Profane Trump Merchandise in a Former Historic Church
The Ruin That a Trump Presidency Would Mean - The Atlantic
MAGA Dumbstruck When Asked What Caused The Civil War - YouTube
Deposition video shows Trump claiming he prevented "nuclear holocaust" as president - CBS News Donald is referring to preventing a nuclear war with North Korea, a completely delusional belief, assuming he actually believes it. Donald did nothing other than a photo op with Kim at the border.
A ‘whale’ of a tale: Trump continues to distort cognitive test he took - The Washington Post Trump IMO has no more than average intelligence but even that is significantly devalued by his unwillingness to learn and his extremely excessive reliance on reality creations that have no basis in fact.
Trump lobs racially charged attacks against Haley ahead of N.H. primary - The Washington Post
++++
Putin and His Orwellian Empire of Misery:
Ukrainian drone assaults are killing thousands of Russians, and yet they keep coming - YouTube (As with other YouTube videos about the war published by western media outlets, Russian trolls are active in leaving comments to this video; and then the same troll with a different user name or other ones like the comment usually bringing the total to over 50 likes, sometimes over 200. It is brain dead propaganda). Putin sends the young Russians over open terrain with no hope of surviving the attack or achieving the objective. Wave after wave of young Russians are sent. Their lives are sacrificed since they have less importance to Putin than a cockroach. Their bodies are left by Russia where their lives ended. What is important to Putin is that he remain in power, with his vast wealth undisturbed, and to avoid losing his life due to an unsuccessful invasion. So he must continue sacrificing young Russians in droves or lose what is important to him. It is just that simple IMO.
Losses ∙ RussiaWarSpotting-documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Putin Ally Makes Ominous Nuclear Threat Dmitry Medvedev, one of Putin's coterie of Kleptocrats, has threatened a nuclear war again. He claims that Russia may destroy the world in the event Ukraine attacks a missile site in Russia with a missile supplied by the West.
Russia has annexed about 1/5th of the internationally recognized Ukrainian territory, which includes Crimea, and it is not clear whether Russia will kill everyone on the planet if a U.K. or U.S. missile launched by Ukraine strikes an air defense installation in Crimea.
Medvedev, Putin and their fellow Kleptocrats are enemies of ordinary Russians.
Perhaps Medvedev, who is reportedly a liberal consumer of Russia's favorite beverage, is becoming increasingly worried that the duration and cost of the Ukrainian war may increase the likelihood that he will lose his wealth and power due to internal developments within Russia.
When a million or so Russian young men are pushing up daisies in Ukrainian soil, then maybe Medvedev may need to accelerate an exit plan, not for Russia's quagmire in Ukraine, but for his own personal safety and to preserve his own financial position.
Russian ex-president Medvedev confirms Russia seeks to destroy Ukrainian state, remains intransigent - Euromaidan Press In this statement titled "Why Ukraine is dangerous for its inhabitants", Medvedev confirmed in unambiguous terms that Russia intends to eliminate Ukraine as a Sovereign state.
To achieve its genocidal objective, Russia will kill as many Ukrainians as necessary and will reduce their cities and towns to rubble.
This is part of his admission that Russia is committing genocide:
"The existence of an independent state on historical Russian territories will now be a constant reason to resume hostilities. It’s too late. Whoever is at the helm of the cancerous new formation called Ukraine, it will not add legitimacy to his rule or legal standing to the ‘country’ itself."
Medvedev has admitted that it is Russia's policy to violate Article 2 of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide:
Putin is losing soldiers and tanks | Bill Browder - YouTube
Two Bradleys Versus a T-90M at Close Range and Win! In Stepove (Amazing Footage) - YouTube
Russia will attack Nato’s borders in two years | Richard Shirreff - YouTube
Ukrainian drone attack causes huge fire at Russian oil depot - YouTube; Russian oil depot catches fire after Ukrainian drone downed - YouTube(both contain video footage of the fire); Ukrainian Successful Drone Attack on Oil Storage Tanks - YouTube (my take)
++++
Russia's Ally in International Terrorism:
Iran launches new attacks - YouTube Iran attacked civilians in Iraq.
The U.S. captured Iranian missile warheads and components in transit to their Houthi allies in Yemen who have been targeting U.S. naval vessels and cargo ships operating in the Red Sea. U.S. forces recovered Iranian warheads in Navy SEAL mission gone awry - The Washington Post ("seized items included Iranian-made ballistic and cruise missile warheads, propulsion and guidance systems, and air defense components.") Two Navy Seals are missing in that intercept effort.
The U.S. Naval vessels are in the Red Sea trying to protect those cargo ships from Houthi attacks. US announces naval coalition to defend Red Sea shipping from Yemen’s Houthi attacks: White House - YouTube Russia, Iran's primary ally, denounced efforts by the U.S. naval coalition to protect those ships from Houthi attacks.
+++
I have been using the recent stock market rally to pare or eliminate some underperforming positions.
1. Eliminated DOC - Sold 61+ at $13.71:
Quote: Physicians Realty Trust (DOC)
Proceeds: $847.94
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
DOC is in the process of being acquired by Healthpeak Properties Inc. (PEAK)
This is an all stock merger. Each share will be converted into .674 of newly issued Healthpeak stock. The Healthpeak quarterly dividend will remain at $.40 per share.
DOC is currently paying a quarterly dividend of $.23 per share. After the merger is completed, the DOC shareholders will receive a dividend cut calculated in the following manner:
Existing Annual DOC Dividend Per share: $.92
To DOC Shareholders per PEAK Share received: $.8088
12.09% cut in the dividend rate to DOC shareholders after receiving .674 shares of PEAK for each DOC share. (calculated by multiplying .674 share conversion amount by $1.20)
My initial reaction which is still my opinion is that the acquisition is a bad deal for DOC shareholders, but an overall small positive for PEAK shareholders given the conversion rate and the financial metrics of the two REITs.
Profit Snapshot: Net of +$39.05:
Last Buy Discussions: Item #3.E. Added to DOC in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $14.25 (10/28/23 Post); Item # 2.G. Added to DOC - Bought 5 at $12; 5 at $11.85 (9/30/23 Post); Item # 1.D. Added to DOC - Bought 5 at $13.13; 5 at $12.95; 5 at $12.75; 5 at $12.38 (9/23/23 Post)
Recent Sell Discussions: Item # 1.A. Eliminated DOC -Sold 46+ at $17.66 (7/3/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $213.64); Item 1.A. Sold 55 DOC at $16.77 (4/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot $22.14); Item # 4.A. Sold Remaining DOC at $17.1-Used Commission Free Trade (12/9/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.5); Item # 3.A. Sold 103 DOC at $16.92 (8/19/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.97)
Largest Gain to Date: +$237.96
 |
| 2015 100 Shares |
DOC Realized Gains to Date: $656.33
This will be my total since I will not be buying any DOC shares going forward. The merger is expected to be completed during the 2024 first half.
The primary problem with Medical Office REITs has been overpaying for properties.
A going in capitalization rate of 4%-5% for a purchase was not that helpful to generating increases in free cash flow per share when intermediate term borrowing rates were around 3.5%.
When an increase in debt financing costs, the downside pressure in funds available per distribution ("FAD") per share intensified and the widespread overpaying for property acquisitions became even more obvious IMO.
The merger of Healthcare Realty and Healthcare Trust of America did not create a better REIT, but simply combined two that have been unable to increase FAD per share over a long period of time, as I have previously discussed here. Healthcare Realty Trust and Healthcare Trust of America Announce Closing of Merger
The end result is that the combined company, trading under the HR symbol, is not covering the current quarterly dividend with FAD per share.
The maxim that bigger is not better is appropriate to describe the mergers in the medical office space IMO.
In the 2023 third quarter, HR paid out $119.456M in dividends and its FAD was $99.733M. Diluted FAD per share was at $.2632 per share with the dividend at $.31 per share. SEC Filed Press Release
While that shortfall does not require a dividend cut, it would not be prudent to sustain a dividend in excess of FAD for a long period. And, the increased downside pressure on FAD resulting from higher interest costs is likely to continue.
2. Eliminated Duplicate Position in THQ - Sold 69+ at $18.87:
THQ SEC FILED Semiannual Report for the period ending 9/30/23
Tekla Healthcare Opportunities (THQ) Portfolio | Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)
Tekla Healthcare Opportunities (THQ)-Morningstar (rated at 4 stars)
Dividend: Monthly at $.1125 per share, with ROC support.
Profit Snapshot: Net of +$76.4
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added to THQ in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $16.14; 10 at $15.95; 5 at $15.6 (10/28/23 Post)
Data Date of 1/12/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $21.76
Closing Market Price: $18.85
Discount: -13.37%
3 Year Average Discount: -7.43%
Sourced: THQ - CEF Connect
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 1.H. Pared THQ in Fidelity Account - Sold 10 at $17.55 and 10 at $17.9 - Highest Cost Lots (5/23/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $23.34); Item # 1.B. Sold Remaining THQ-61+ Shares at $17.5 (9/1/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $60.49); Item # 2.A. Sold 53 THQ at $17.98(7/31/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $44.81); Item # 5 Sold 100 THQ at $17.59-Used Commission Free Trade(7/7/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $79.88 and contains 2017 profit snapshots =$555.56); Item # 2.C. Sold 232+ THQ at 17.59 (7/3/17 Post); Item # 2.D. Sold 118+ THQ at $18.7 in a Roth IRA Account (7/3/17 Post;); Item # 3. Sold 160+ THQ at $17.41 (6/5/17 Post)
THQ Realized Gains to Date: $898.53
There are several reasons for selling these shares. (1) I was able to capture a total return in excess of the dividends paid; (2) recent performance has been poor with the 2022 and 2023 annual total returns at -17.48% and 1.6% based on price respectively; (3) borrowing costs have increased and probably exceed the interest received from corporate bonds owned by the fund before management and other expenses. The leverage is priced at a spread to SOFR, see pages 27-28 of the semiannual report.
I also wanted to consolidate my THQ position in 1 taxable account.
I did buy 10 shares in my Fidelity Account after eliminating THQ in my Schwab account, see Item # 6.C. below. That purchase brought my position up to just 25+ shares.
3. Small Ball Sells:
A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in TFC (Schwab Account) - Sold 18+ at $36.43:
Quote: Truist Financial Corp. (TFC)
Proceeds: $680.15
This super regional was formerly known as BB&T and traded under the BBT symbol. Most of my trades linked below were made when this bank holding company had its former name and symbol.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
TFC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $110.03
Last Discussed: Item # 2.K. Added to TFC - Bought 1 at $26.33 in Fidelity Account (5/13/23 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.52 per share, last raised from $.48 effective for the 2022 third quarter payment.
Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 11/9/2023
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23):
SEC Filed Conference Call Slides
A common expense that lowered GAAP earnings in the 2023 4th quarter is the special assessments that the FDIC is requiring about 114 banks to pay to recoup the FDIC's losses connected to insuring uninsured deposits at the failed Silicon Valley and Signature Bank collapses last year.
FDIC Press Release; FDIC finalizes $16.3 billion special assessment to recover loss from SVB and Signature Bank failures | Davis Polk; Uninsured Deposits and the FDIC Final Rule for Special Assessments on Banks | Insights | Venable LLP Banks with less than $5B in uninsured deposits as of 12/31/22 do not have to pay the assessment. About 114 banks will be required to pay the assessments with the first payment due in the current quarter and 8 quarterly assessments are currently expected to cover the FDIC losses connected with the decision to protect insurance for uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley and Signature Bank failures. The deposit calculation did not exclude the amount of uninsured deposits that were collateralized which is normally the case for government bank deposits.
Banks charged as an expense the estimated amount of the entire assessment that will paid over 8 quarters in the 2023 4th quarter.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.J. Pared TFC- Sold 2 at $48.4 - Highest Cost Lot (12/19/20 Post);
Item # 1. A. Sold 71+ BBT at $50.72 (7/25/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,330.82);
Item # 1. A. Sold Highest Cost 50 BBT Shares at $55.45 (2/8/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,061.02);
Item # 3.A. Sold Highest Cost 50 BBT Shares at $47.24 (3/28/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $568.45)
TFC/BBT Realized Gains to Date: $3,182.74 (This total includes some realized gains in Roth IRA accounts that were not discussed here. I eliminated my TFC position in both RI accounts last week) I still own a few shares in my Fidelity taxable account and will consider adding to the position when a purchase will reduce my average cost per share, or I have a much more favorable opinion than I do now.
B. Pared ARCC - Sold 2 at $20.36:
Quote: Ares Capital Corp. - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds: $40.72
This is a small example of risk reduction which involves selling my highest cost shares profitably, which reduces my average cost per share and raises my dividend yield.
For Business Development Company (BDC) stocks, I will periodically reduce risk since unrealized profit will disappear or be substantially reduced during an economic recession. Price collapses have been relatively frequent which have allowed me to replace sold shares at much lower prices.
The remaining shares owned in my Schwab account were bought between March 16, 2020 to 9/24/2020, when the pandemic induced recession caused the last major price collapse in BDC stocks. The lowest price paid for ARCC in this account was $8.61 on 3/23/2020, when the S&P 500 closed at 2,237.4, the lowest close during the March 2020 swoon.
 |
| Remaining Lots Schwab Account/Price as of 1/12/24 |
2022 Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 24 and ends at page 49)
Last Discussed: Item # 2.I. Pared ARCC in Schwab Account - Sold 4 at $20.72 (5/12/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.94)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4.C. Added 5 ARCC at $14.3; 5 at $14; 5 at $13.67; 5 at $12.5; 5 at $12.4; 5 at $12; 5 at $11.74; 5 at $10.44; 5 at $9.4 (4/4/20 Post) I highlighted two purchase prices to show just how fast the price fell in the early stages of the pandemic.
Profit Snapshot: +$14.04
New Average Cost per share this account: $12.52 (25+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 1/12/24 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.48 per share ($1.92 annually)
ARCC Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at New AC: 15.34%, rounded up.
Last Ex Dividend: 12/14/23
Net Asset Value per share history: I view this history positively.
9/30/23: $18.99 10-Q at page 3
9/30/23: $18.56 10-Q at page 3
9/30/21: $18.52 10-Q
12/31/20: $16.97 10-K
9/30/18: $17.16
12/21/17: $16.65
9/30/17: $16.49 10-Q
12/30/16: $16.45
9/30/16: $16.59
6/30/16: $16.62
3/31/16: $16.5
12/31/14: $16.82
9/30/13: $16.35
3/31/12: $15.47
6/30/10: $14.11
12/31/09: $11.44 10-K
9/30/09: $11.16 10-Q
12/31/08: $11.27
6/30/08: $12.83 10-Q
12/31/07: $15.47 10-K at page 57
9/30/07: $15.74
3/31/05: $14.96
ARCC Realized Gains to Date: $883.5
Goal: As with all BDC stocks, the goal is simply to earn a return in excess of the dividends paid.
Owned SU Bonds: $10,000 in principal amount
4 of the 4.2% SU Maturing on 6/10/24: Bond Page | FINRA.org
4 of the 4.25% Maturing on 3/1/25: Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 of the 2.15% Maturing on 7/15/26: Bond Page | FINRA.org (bought at 90.97)
C. Eliminated Position in IBB - Sold 3+ at $137:
Quote: iShares Biotechnology ETF Overview
Proceeds: $532.52
The proceeds deposited in a sweep account currently earning 5% has become more important than the possibility of capital appreciation which has proved to be elusive since I first started a position.
Sponsor's website: iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF | IBB
Expense ratio: .45%
Number of Holdings 227 as of 1/12/24
Last Discussed: Item # 1.K. Added to IBB - Added $50 at $138.48; $50 at $135.9; $50 at $132.11; $50 at $129;$50 at $123.7 (1/27/22 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$9.81
2 Year Dividend History:
Last 4 Dividends: $.3479
IBB -Morningstar (currently rated 2 stars)
D. Pared OFS in Fidelity Account - Sold 8+ at $11.81:
Quote: OFS Capital Corp - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds: $96.82
2022 Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 28 and ends at page 62)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Pared OFS in Schwab Account - Sold 20 at $11.51 (12/30/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $17.65) I discussed the third quarter earnings report in that post which also summarized some of my concerns. SEC Filed Press Release; OFS Capital Corporation Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript - Insider Monkey
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.F. Bought 40 OFS with an Average Cost Per share of $4.18 (11/7/20 Post); Item # 2.L. Added 5 OFS at $3.97-Fidelity Taxable (11/28/20 Post); Item # 1.K. Added 3 OFS at $4.5 -Fidelity Taxable (8/8/20 Post); Item # 3.E. Added 5 OFS at $9.66; 5 at $9.2; 5 at $8.7; 5 at $6; 5 at $5.65; 2 at $3.7; 10 at $3.79 (4/11/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$60.72
OFS Stock Dividend History & Date
I am not reinvesting the dividend.
New Average Cost per share: $3.82
 |
| Snapshot as of Close on 1/17/24 after pare |
Yield at New AC = 35.6%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/21/23
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
9/30/23: $12.74
6/30/23: $12.94
12/31/22: $13.47
6/30/22: $14.57 10/Q for the Q/E 6/30/22 at page 3
03/31/21: $11.96 10-Q at page 3
12/21/20: $11.85 10-K at page 69
6/30/20: $10.10
3/31/20: $ 9.71
12/31/19: $12.46
9/30/19: $12.74
6/30/19: $12.95 Page 2 10-Q
3/31/19 $13.04 10-Q
12/31/18 $13.10
6/30/18 $13.70
03/31/18 $13.67
12/31/17 $14.12
12/31/16 $14.82
12/31/15 $14.76
12/31/14 $14.24
12/31/13 $14.54
IPO Offering Price at $15 (November 2012) with proceeds after the underwriters' discount at $13.05 Final Prospectus Supplement
Some Other Sell Discussions: Item # 6.C. Pared OFS in Schwab Account - Sold 20 at $10.86 (9/30/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $28.94); Item # 3.A. Eliminated OFS in Vanguard Account - Sold 20 at $10.2 and Item # 3.B. Pared OFS in my Fidelity Account-Sold 10 at $10.15 (8/19/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $182.5); Item # 3.D. Pared OFS in Fidelity Account - Sold 13.82 Shares at $11.32 (8/16/22 Post); Item # 4.B. Pared OFS in Fidelity Account - Sold 15.427 at $12.49 (6/15/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $60.07; contains snapshots of realized gains prior to 2022); Item # 4.D. Pared OFS in Fidelity Account - Sold 29+ at $13.06 (4/21/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.88); Item # 1.H. Pared OFS in Fidelity Account Sold 35 at $10.07- Highest Cost Lots That Could be Sold Profitably (7/22/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.44);; Item # 2.M. Pared OFS in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 20 at $7.2 (12/25/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $56.8); Item # 3.B. Sold 10 OFS at $12.04 (11/30/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.04); Item # 4.B. Sold 60 shares at $12 (11/13/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $13.11); Item # 3.A. Sold Highest Cost OFS Lots in Schwab Account - 50 shares at $12.27 and 50 at $12.47 (5/5/19 Post)(profit snapshots = $69.55)
E. Eliminated Duplicate CFG Position in Fidelity Account - Sold 10+ at $31.58:
Quote: Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG)
Proceeds: $325.62
CFG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investor Relations – Citizens Bank
Profit Snapshot: +$86.79
Last Buy Discussions in Schwab Account: Item # 1.P. Added 1 CFG at $24.65 (5/20/23 Post); Item # 1.G. Added to CFG - Bought 1 at $30.23; 2 at $29.7; 5 at $28.9;2 at $28.54 (4/8/23 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.42 per share
Next Ex Dividend: 1/30/24
I still own 33+ shares in my Schwab account with an average cost per share at $31.42. I am not reinvesting the dividend.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23):
SEC Filed Investor Presentation
SEC Filed Supplemental for the 2023 4th Quarter
CFG charge was $225M or $.35 per share for the special FDIC assessment discussed above in connection with TFC. Other notable items in the quarter totalled $.16.
GAAP E.P.S. = $.34, down from $1.25 in the 2022 4th quarter (see SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/e 12/31/22)
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.85, down from $1.32 in the 2022 4th quarter.
2023 GAAP E.P.S. = $3.13, down from
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $3.88, down from $4.84
Net Interest Margin: 2.9%, down from 3.03% in the 2023 third quarter and 3.29% in the 2022 4th quarter.
Underlying Efficiency Ratio (ex items): 63.8%, up from 54.4% in the 2022 4th quarter.
Non-performing loans to total loans: .93%, up from .6% in the 2022 4th quarter.
Charge off ratio: .46%, up from .22%
Coverage Ratio: 170% (allowance for credit losses already taken to nonperforming loans)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (end of period): 82.3%
Tangible Book Value per share: $30.91
The NIM, non-GAAP and GAAP E.P.S., and the efficiency ratio are going in the wrong direction, as is the NPL and Charge off ratios. The current price reflects, at least in a substantial way, the downtrend in financial metrics that occurred in 2023 IMO.
F. Pared BKRL - Sold 13+ at $10.16:
Quote: Brookline Bancorp (BKRL)
Proceeds: $134.86
Brookline Bancorp, Inc.-Corporate Profile
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.B. Added 5 BRKL at $8.23 (11/11/2023 Post) I discussed the third quarter earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Profit Snapshot: +$10.11 (highest cost lots, remaining shares purchased with dividends)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.135 per share ($.54 annually)
New Average cost per share: $8.33 (18 shares), reduced from $8.77.
 |
| Snapshot as of Close on 1/17/24 after pare |
Yield at New AC = 6.48%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/9/23
G. Pared MBWM - Sold 5+ at $38.5:
Quote: Mercantile Bank Corp.
Proceeds: $224.26
MBWM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: +$44.69
Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share ($1.4 annually), last raised from $.34 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment. The penny rate was $.17 in the 2016 4th quarter.
Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
New Average Cost per share: $27.59 (22 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 1/18/23 after pare |
Yield at New AC = 5.07%
Next Ex Dividend: 2/29/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23):
GAAP E.P.S. = $1.25
Consensus at $1.25
2023 GAAP E.P.S. = $5.13, up from $3.85 in 2022
NIM: 3.92%, down from 4.3% in the 2022 4th Q.
"The cost of funds was 2.03 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, up from 0.65 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 primarily due to higher costs of deposits and borrowed funds, reflecting the impact of the rising interest rate environment, and a change in funding mix, mainly consisting of a decrease in noninterest-bearing and lower-cost deposits and an increase in higher-cost money market accounts and time deposits, driven by deposit migration and new deposit relationships."
Efficiency Ratio: 52.57%, up from 48.82%
NPL Ratio: .08%
NPA Ratio: .07%
Charge off ratio: Net recovery of .01%
ROE: 16.04%, down from 20.06%
Tangible Book Value per share: $29.31, up from $24.27 in the 2022 4th Q.
4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auctions:
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 1/16/24 Auction- Fidelity Account:
%204:18:24%20.png)
Matures on 4/18/24
91 Day Bill
Interest: $66.04
Investment Rate: 5.383%
This video is helpful in explaining the Investment Rate. High Rate vs. Investment Rate | Treasury Bill Pricing & Interest Rates Explained! - YouTube
B. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 1/17/24 Auction - Fidelity Account:
%205:21:2024%20.png)
Matures on 5/21/24
Interest: $85.7
Investment Rate: 5.363%
C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 1/18/24 Auction - Schwab Account:
%203:19:24.png){kind=small}
Matures on 3/19/24
56 Day Bill
Interest: $41.03
Investment Rate: 5.407%
5. U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Eliminated the Duplicate Position in SLGPRI - Sold 15 at $21.28 (Fidelity Account):
Quote: SLG-PI
Proceeds: $319.2
Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity preferred stock senior only to common stock
Issuer: SL Green Realty Corp (SLG) - Primarily A NYC Office REIT
There was a negative 60 minute program that recently aired about NYC Office properties that included an interview with SLG's CEO. Hybrid work leaves offices empty and building owners reeling | 60 Minutes - YouTube
Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock, senior only to common stock.
Coupon: 6.5% paid on a $25 par value.
Dividends: Paid quarterly, cumulative and non-qualified (pass through entity).
Maturity: None, potentially perpetual. Call protection has expired.
Stopper Clause: Standard. Enforces the preferred stocks superior claim to cash common only to the common stock.
Credit agencies have recently downgraded this REIT's credit ratings. Fitch Downgrades SL Green Realty Corp. to 'BB+'; Outlook Negative (8/14/23) The BB+ rating is for the senior unsecured debt. Fitch downgraded the preferred stock to BB- from BB. On 8/30/23, Moody's downgraded the SU debt to Ba2 from Ba1 and the preferred stock to B1 from Ba3.
To improve liquidity in a difficult office property environment, SLG has sold some properties and reduced its monthly common share dividend. SLG Dividend History-Nasdaq
Most Recent Property Disposition: SL Green Announces Sale of 625 Madison Avenue (12/4/23)
For as long as this REIT pays a common stock cash dividend, it can not legally defer paying the entire preferred stock dividend.
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Added to SLGPRI in Schwab Account - Bought 3 at $17.5; 2 at $17.27 (11/25/23 Post); Item # 5.C. Added 2 SLGPRI at $17.99 (11/18/23 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$62.49
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Sell Discussions: Item # 3.A. Eliminated SLGPRI-Sold 20 at $25.96 (9/12/20 Post); Item # 5 Sold 50 SLGPRI at $23.6 (4/3/2014 Post)
SLGPRI Realized Gains to Date: $213.77
B. Eliminated EPRPRC - Sold 21 at $20.78:
Quote: EPR Properties 5.75% Cumulative Convertible Preferred Series C Stock
Proceeds: $436.37
Issuer: EPR Properties (EPR)
Profit Snapshot: Net of $26.54
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added to ERPPRC - Bought 5 at $18.74; 5 at $17.75(1/3/23 Post); Item # 2.C. Added 5 EPR.PRC at $19.35 (12/20/22 Post)
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Preferred Stock Prospectus
Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock, senior only to common stock.
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.75%
Dividends: Paid Quarterly, Non-Qualified and Cumulative
Conversion into Common Stock: Conversion feature is currently assigned no value, or close to it, based on the preferred stock price. That has not always been the case as shown by some price levels before the pandemic, including those of some of my prior sales. The current conversion price is at $58.8 as of 12/31/23: Summary of Series C Preferred-Shares.pdf At some point, the conversion feature may start to positively impact the share price, but it is difficult to foresee that happening anytime soon given the troubles of major tenants in the movie theater business.
The conversion price started at $71.34 and has drifted down as determined by a complex formula. One component of that formula is the amount that common share quarterly dividend exceeds $.685 per share.
Common share dividends are now paid monthly at $.275 per share or $.825 per share on a quarterly basis. Dividends | EPR Properties
The value of this security has been negatively impacted by credit concerns related to financial problems experienced by several tenants (e.g. Regal bankruptcy), the rise in risk free yields, and no value assigned to the conversion feature. The credit concerns are far less now than during the early pandemic period when survival of this REIT was questionable. A robust rally in the common stock, which causes the conversion to come into play, fewer problems with tenant non-rent or reduced rent payments, and/or a decline in interest rates, would be a tailwins for this preferred stock.
Prior Sell Discussions:
Item # 4.B. Sold 10 ERPPRC at $20.32 (7/3/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $76.66);
Item # 3.B. Sold 10 EPRPRC at $17.5 and 5 at $16.22 (5/2/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.6)
Item # 3 Sold 50 EPRPRC at $27.49 (10/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $178.58)-Item # 1 Bought 50 EPRPRC at $23.78-Used Commission Free Trade (4/23/18 Post)
Item # 1.B. Sold 50 EPRPRC at $28.48 (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $224.22)-Item # 1 Bought 50 EPRPRC at $24 (4/23/18)
Item # 3 Sold 50 EPRPRC-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $160.48)
ERPPRC Trading Profits to Date: $683.08
6. Small Ball Purchases - CEFs and ETFs:
A. Bought 10 PEO at $20.86; 5 at $19.96:
Quote: Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. Overview - A Stock CEF
Cost: $308.38
Average cost per share: $20.56 (15 shares)
This is one of the CEFs that was formed just prior to the October 1929 crash.
Sponsor's website: Adams Funds
SEC Filed 2023 Third Quarter Report (lists holdings as of 9/30/23)
Last Elimination: Item # 1. Eliminated PEO - Sold 182+ at $22 (1/16/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $853.25)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.H. Bought 5 PEO at $19.86 (12/9/23 Post)
Data as of 1/12/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $24.44
Closing Market Price: $20.8
Discount: -14.89%
Average 3 Year Discount: -14.51%
Sourced: PEO - CEF Connect (Click Pricing Information Tab)
Last Ex Dividend: 11/17/23 at $1.05 per share
PEO Stock Dividend History & Date
Dividend: Variable, with most of the amount paid in the 4th quarter that includes capital gains realized during the year.
B. Added 5 GCOW at $33.34:
Quote: Pacer Global Cash Cows Dividend ETF Overview
Cost: $166.7
New Average cost per share: $34.05 (20 Shares)
This ETF incorporates free cash flow yield into its dividend stock selection criteria.
Sponsor's website: GCOW | Pacer ETFs (expense ratio = .6%)
GCOW – Pacer Global Cash Cows Dividend ETF- Morningstar
GCOW – Portfolio -Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)
I have nothing further to add to my recent discussion. Item # 2. Started GCOW - Bought 5 at $34.58; 5 at $34.25; 5 at $34.08 (1/12/24 Post)
Maximum Position: 100 shares with each subsequent purchase required to reduce my average cost per share.
C. Added 10 THQ in Fidelity Account at $18.45:
Quote: Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund Overview - A Leveraged Balanced CEF
Cost: $184.5
As discussed above in Item # 2., I eliminated my position in another account, selling 69+ shares at $18.87.
New Average Cost per share: $15.43 (25+ shares) This add raised my AC from $13.43.
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 1/18/24 after add |
Dividend: Monthly at $.1125 per share ($1.35 annually), with ROC support.
Data Date of 1/18/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $21.51
Closing Market Price: $$18.58
Discount: - 13.62%
3 Year Average Discount: - 7.46%
Sourced: THQ - CEF Connect
D. Added to AOD - Bought 10 at $7.92:
Quote: abrdn Total Dynamic Dividend Fund Overview - Stock CEF
Cost = $79.2
AOD SEC Filed Annual Report for the the period ending 10/31/23 (cost of investments then at $825.158+M with the value at $938.422+M; as of 10/31/23, the fund had outstanding of $49.051+M in borrowings priced as a spread to the SOFR rate, up from the average borrowing during the six month period of $21.767+M, see page 32)
Last Discussed: Item # 3.B. Added to AOD - Bought 30 shares at $8.13 (12/30/23 Post) I have nothing substantive to add to my recent discussions.
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation. I will stop buying monthly dividend paying CEFs in my Fidelity account when the total exceeds $200 per month. I will not calculate that total until early April for March.
Dividend: $.0575 ($.69 annually)
The dividend is currently supported by ROC. The only was to earn the dividend in its entirety is through realized capital gains.
New average cost per share: $7.95 (162+ shares)
Yield at New AC = 8.68%
Next ex dividend: 1/23/24
AOD Stock Dividend History & Date
Data Date of 1/18/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $9.34
Closing Market Price: $7.91
Discount: -15.31%
Average 3 year discount: -11.66%
Sourced: AOD - CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" Tab)
abrdn Total Dynamic Dividend (AOD) Portfolio | Morningstar Lists top 25 holdings.
7. Small Purchase - Blackjack Hands:
A BlackJack hand, when used to describe a stock purchase, is meant to express the high risk and the speculative nature of the stock. I am basically devoting about the same amount of capital to the purchase as I would playing a blackjack hand at a casino.
A. Restarted MAXN - Bought 10 at $4.93- Schwab Account:
 |
| Contains Snapshots of Prior Sales at $18.75 and $20.38 in 2021 |
Quote: Maxeon Solar Technologies Ltd.
Cost: $49.25
"Headquartered in Singapore, Maxeon designs and manufactures Maxeon® and SunPower® brand solar panels, and has sales operations in more than 100 countries, operating under the SunPower brand in certain countries outside the United States. The Company is a leader in solar innovation with over 1,600 patents and two best-in-class solar panel product lines. Maxeon products span the global rooftop and solar power plant markets through a network of more than 1,700 trusted partners and distributors."
Website: Maxeon Solar Technologies
MAXN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
MAXN SEC Filings (foreign company forms)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.J. Eliminated Remaining Shares of MAXN - Sold 14 Shares at $18.25 (8/2/2022 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.75). In that post, I made the following comment:
The solar industry had an awful 2023 due to a variety of factors that are expected by many to continue this year.
In addition to supply/demand imbalances created in part by higher interest rates for homeowners seeking to install solar panels, a law change in California that negatively impacted installation in that state, and input cost inflation increasing operating losses, MAXN had a major customer, SunPower, fall behind on its payments and MAXN suspended shipments to that installer for most of the third quarter. Maxeon Solar Technologies provides Business Update and Announces Preliminary Third Quarter Revenue and Shipment Results - Oct 10, 2023; Maxeon Solar Technologies and SunPower Corporation Announce Supply Agreement Amendment and Resolution of Disputes - Nov 15, 2023 The settlement terminated the existing supply agreements with SunPower "The settlement calls for SunPower to purchase 85 MW of IBC panels at contracted pricing through February 2024 and to post a $30 million payment security bond."
MAXN plans to aggressively ramp up U.S. sales through the recently acquired Solaria assets. Maxeon Solar Technologies and Complete Solaria Sign Definitive Agreement for Purchase of Sales Channel Assets and Shingled Solar Panel IP (9/20/23) I view this purchase as a response to the SunPower problem.
MAXN was spun out of SunPower in 2020. The SPWR stock price currently reflects doubt that this company will survive for much longer. SunPower Corp (SPWR)
Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy. In prior discussions, I noted that this company will be posting losses for years to come but has some speculative potential long term. Over the very long term, MAXN will hopefully become successful before humans are burned to a crisp through a collective worldwide failure to deal with climate change. I suspect that nothing meaningful will ever be done, however, given the entrenched opposition (e.g. republicans in the U.S.) who have and will exercise the power to stop any and all meaningful steps.
Last Loss Report (Q/E 9/30/23): SEC Filed Press Release
Revenue: $227.63M, down from $343.273M in the 2023 second quarter and $275.449M in the 2022 third quarter.
GAAP Net Loss: -$108.257M
Adjusted EBITDA: -$19.923M
Cash and Cash Equivalents: $208.1M
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.M. Eliminated MAXN in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 8 at $22.75 (11/11/21 Post)(profit snapshot for 25 shares = $68.01); Item # 1.E. Pared MAXN in Vanguard Account-Sold 3 at $19.4 (10/21/21 Post); Item # 1.F. Eliminated MAXN in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 15 at $18.75 (10/21/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.09); Item # 2.C. Pared MAXN in 3 Taxable Accounts by Selling Highest Cost Lots-2 at $20.1; 5 at $20.38; 10 at $20.6 (9/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $10.07)
A. Eliminated TRPPRH:CA - Sold 200 at C$13.24:
Quote: TRP-PH.TO
Proceeds: C$2,646 after C$2 commission.
Profit Snapshot: +C$140
Issuer: TC Energy Corp. (TRP) I have a common stock position and own other TRP equity preferred reset stocks.
I currently own 22 TRP common stock shares.
I still own two other TRP reset equity preferred stocks: 250 of TRPPRD:CA and 250 TRPPRE:CA in my IB Account:
 |
| Price as of Close on 1/17/24 |
The unrealized gain in those two preferred stock was then at C$857
I also own 1 TRP SU bond that matures on 1/15/2026.
TRP Preferred Stock Prospectuses can be found here: TC Energy — Stock Information
Par Value: C$25
Coupon: 1.28% spread to the 3 month Canadian government bill. Canada 3 Month Government Bond Overview; Selected treasury bill yields - Bank of Canada
Resets coupon every 3 months.
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative.
There are two reasons for selling this preferred stock. While the current yield at my total cost per share was good, with the 3 month Canadian bill near 5% and a total cost basis of C$12.53 or 49.88% below the C$25 par value, the yield may have already peaked with the next major move being down. And, the spread to the 3 month bill is the worst among the reset equity preferred stocks that I own that reset quarterly.
Fitch downgraded the TRP preferred stock rating to BBB- from BBB in March 2023. Fitch Downgrades TC Energy SU Debt to 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable The rating was reaffirmed in July 2023: Fitch Affirms TC Energy Corporation at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable
Buy Discussions: Item # 1.B. Added 50 TRPPRH:CA at C$12.95 (6/24/23 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 50 TRPPRH at C$11.1 (11/16/2019); Item # 3. Bought 100 TRPPRH:CA at C$13 (2/23/19 Post)
Sell Discussion: Item # 5.B. Sold 100 TRPPRH at C$14.2 (5/17/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$393) I sold the lot purchased at C$10.25. Item # 2 Bought 100 TRPPRH:CA at C$10.25 Update For Exchange Traded Bond And Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 5/26/2016 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
TRPPRH:CA Realized Gains to Date: +C$533
Consider to repurchase price: Less than C$11. The low spread to a short term rate is a major negative for me.
8. Upcoming Reset Coupon - Canadian Preferred Stocks:
I have two Canadian reset equity preferred stocks that will soon reset their coupons at spreads to the 5 year Canadian bond yield, which closed yesterday at 3.56%. Canada 5 Year Government Bond Overview | MarketWatch
Both of these preferred stocks were issued by energy infrastructure companies and pay cumulative dividends on a C$25 par value.
500 Shares of ENBPRP:CA - ENB-PP.TO
Resets at a 2.5% spread on 3/1/24 using the bond yield 30 days prior to the first day of the next five year period.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added to ENBPRP:CA - Bought 100 at C$16.2 (11/15/22 Post)(average cost per share = C$16.05)
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.A. Sold 100 out of 400 ENBPRP:CA at C$20.20 (12/31/21 Post)(profit snapshot = C$368); Item # 4.A. Sold 200 ENBPRP at C$19.91 (3/25/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$963, contains a snapshot of a prior realized gain of US$1,458.25 converted by Fidelity into USDs from CADs.)
The current coupon prior to the upcoming reset is 4.35%. Assuming a 3.6% five year Canadian bond yield on the reset date, the coupon for the next five years would be 6.1%, and the yield at my AC of $16.05 would rise to 9.5% from the current 6.78%.
400 Shares of PPLPRC:CA - PPL-PC.TO
Resets at a 2.6% spread on 3/1/24 using the bond yield 30 days prior.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Added 100 PPLPRC at C$16.8 (6/24/23 Post)(average cost per share at C$16.75)
If I counted right, the 5 year Canadian bond yield used in the reset will be the one as of 1/30/24. Assuming that yield turns out to be 3.6%, the PPL preferred stock coupon will become 6.2% for the five period starting in March. Using my $16.75 AC per share, the current yield for the next five years using a 6.2% coupon would be 9.25% (.062% coupon x. C$25 par value = C$1.55 annual dividend per share ÷ $16.75 average cost per share = 9.25%)
The current coupon prior to this reset is 4.478%.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I've read through and the 1st comment still has my attention. NY manufacturing is so contracted.
ReplyDeleteI considered an ibond at 1.3%. I think I decided over time I don't think it will pay as much as a straight CD or bank account. But that deferred factor is attractive.
LAND: The regional FED manufacturing surveys and the ISM national one have been weak for several months. They are surveys and may be inaccurately capturing what is actually happening in U.S. manufacturing or may be overstating the downtrend. The economy can still grow with consumer spending and services, both being more important than manufacturing to GDP growth.
ReplyDeleteI put in an I Bond order to buy $2,500, a partial replacement for $6+K that I will redeem, probably in July, which have a fixed rate of .5%. If inflation stays near 3% or goes lower, the appeal is not that great, but then it will look better than those that I currently own that pay a .5% fix rate and will possibly become more desirable when and if the FED starts to cut the FF rate which will cause short term CD, MM and treasury bill rates to decline in tandem. The 5 year TIP is still a better buy at the moment since the real yield is about .5% higher than the 1.3% Ibond fixed rate. My five year holding period expires next June. I will avoid the 3 month interest forfeiture for a redemption within 5 years.
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ):
ReplyDelete$41.75 $2.17 +5.48%
Last Updated: Jan 23, 2024 at 11:13 a.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vz?mod=search_symbol
I have a small ball position in VZ. I have been trying to dig myself out of a hole by buying small lots down to about $32. My initial purchase was at a less than optimal price as proven by the strong downtrend that started in 2020 when the price was near $60. The chart points to a bottom in September 2023 near $32.
The Stock Jocks are reacting today to the VZ 4th quarter earnings report:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/732712/000073271224000007/a2023q4exhibit991.htm
Adjusted E.P.S. of $1.08 was in line with the consensus but revenue of $35.1B beat the consensus of $34.6B. But of those figures dropped from the 2023 4th quarter.
The Stock Jocks may be excited about the 449,000 postpaid net phone additions, an important metric for them. The consensus was at 231,600 net adds according to Barron's.
Still 22% underwater. May the stock jocks keep being excited about those metrics. Maybe a fixed # in the multiclass suit is helping put it into the past.
DeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/01/aep-bcbp-hbnc-krg-mmt-ofs-oge-opbk-ryld.html
I may elaborate later today on portfolio positioning in a YouTube video.