AMCX, BSTZ, ELC, EMAPRC:CA, EQR, FLCA, MAA, MAPTX, PRWCX, REI.UN:CA, RYLD, VHCOX

Economy: 

In the third estimate of the 3rd quarter, real GDP growth was revised down to a 4.9% annual rate from 5.2%. 

The PCE price index was revised down by .2% to 2.6%. The core PCE price index was revised down by .3% to 2%. 

A 2% increase in the Core PCE price index is the Fed goal on inflation.   

Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2023 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

The PCE price index declined by .1% in November, the first decline since April 2020. The core PCE price index rose +.1% month-to-month.

Personal Income and Outlays, November 2023 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

12 month PCE Prices: 2.6%, down from 3% through October.

12 month Core PCE Prices: 3.2%, down from 3.5% through October. 

Over the past six months, Core PCE prices have increased 1.87% on an annualized basis, below the FED's target of 2%. Core PCE Inflation Data Are Out. These Are the Highlights. - Barron's

The PCE price index is not the same as CPI. Two Measures of Inflation: October 2023 - dshort - Advisor Perspectives; Watching CPI and PCE inflation in FRED | FRED Blog ("One component that may also help depict the difference between these two price indexes is annual inflation in “imputed rental of owner-occupied housing . . . Since CPI has higher weights for housing, this imputed rent should contribute much more to the CPI than the PCE.")

Without shelter inflation, the annual CPI through November would have been +1.4% rather than the reported 3.1%. Consumer Price Index Summary - 2023 M11 Results

The largest component of the shelter "expense" is owners equivalent rent that is weighted at 25.825% in CPI. The government claims that this non-expense "expense" rose 6.7% through October. Homeowners do not pay rent to themselves. Rent for a primary residence that is actually paid has a 7.658% weighting in CPI.  

The government's calculation of "owners equivalent rent" does not use inflation in home prices but in rents. There is a considerable lag in that calculation since rents typically roll over only an annual basis. The lag is further increased by the government sampling rent prices at 6 month intervals and then using a rolling six month average. 

Rent inflation has already decreased substantially but that is not yet reflected in the BLS shelter expense calculations. According to Zillow, rents have actually increased by 3.3% over the past year, lower than the average for 2019-2021. 

A UBS economist believes that shelter inflation will decline to 3.75% by year end 2024. That would be down from an annual +6.5% through November 2023. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category - 2023 M11 Results

CPI will likely continue its decline during 2024 as the shelter "expense" slowly resets to what is actually happening now in rent inflation.  

In a WSJ article, it was noted that Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms represent about 30% of the S&P 500's market value and a higher combined weighting than all of the stocks from Japan, France, China and the U.K. in the MSCI Country World Index (which includes about 85% of the global equity market).

Fed's dovish pivot is gamble that's likely to fail: former top N.Y. Fed official - MarketWatch The former official is Bill Dudley who believes that the FED's recent dovish pivot may, through spillover effects in financial markets, contribute to the economy overheating and to inflation remaining stubbornly high. Inflation historically has remained subdued and low for long periods with the stock market being in a long term secular bull market.   

Homes Prices Remain Overvalued in 88% of the U.S.

Existing-Home Sales Expanded 0.8% in November, Ending Five-Month Slide

Mortgage Rates - Freddie Mac Using weekly average numbers over the past year, the 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate hit a high of 7.79% (W/E 10/26) and had fallen to 6.67% for the W/E 12/21.

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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post: 

Treasury Auction Purchases: $15,000 in principal amount 

Corporate Bonds: None

Purchased Treasury MM Fund SNOXX: $2,000 

Individual U.S. Common Stocks: -$588.77

(consisting of $975.84 in proceeds minus $387.07 in purchases)

Canadian REIT:  +C$1,850

Stock CEF and ETF: +$584.28

Stock Mutual Funds: +$550

Inflow Common Stocks/Funds: +$1,914.51 (valuing Canadian REIT purchase at US$1,369 for this purpose) 

Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bond (ELC): +$426.2 (weighted yield at 5.59%) 

2023 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$25,319.56

The primary reason for the net outflow this year is the risk free return in treasury bills, CDs and U.S. Treasury MM funds taking into account my investment objectives that place more importance on preservation of capital and income generation than capital gains from stocks.  

++++++

Despicable Don and His Party: 

RealClearPolitics-Election-2024 Republican Presidential Nomination

RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

Trump wipes out Biden's lead with Latino voters in 2024: CNBC survey

Trump, again, praises dictators and rails against immigrants-again sparking backlash - ABC News (12/17/23) He repeated a prior statement about immigrants that is reminiscent of Nazi propaganda: "They're poisoning the blood of our country. That's what they've done"  Donald Trump on Illegal Immigrants "Poisoning the Blood of Our Country" | C-SPAN.org Donald learned a lot from reading  Hitler's speeches which he puts to good use when he speaks to the Trumpsters.  Ivana Trump Says That Her Ex Read Hitler Speeches; Trump calls enemies ‘vermin,’ echoing Hitler and Nazis; 1990 report: Ivana Trump told her lawyer Donald Trump kept Hitler speeches beside bed - YouTube

Since republicans are reacting so positively to his "poisoning the blood of our country" line, Donald repeated it again at a rally in Waterloo, Iowa last Tuesday. Trump only repeats lines when they work on the intended audience. Trump says he’s never read ‘Mein Kampf’ as he doubles down on anti-immigrant rhetoric at Iowa rally | CNN Politics

42 percent of GOP Iowa caucus goers say ‘poisoning the blood’ remarks make them more likely to support Trump: poll | The Hill

How Trump’s rhetoric compares with Hitler’s - The Washington Post There are a number of similarities that go way back in time. 

Donald Trump defends former influencer Douglass Mackey convicted of election interference who has racist, antisemitic past (Mackey "used the N-word in multiple posts, and he described Black people as “feral.” Antisemitism was another popular theme for him, and he routinely shared memes reminiscent of Nazi propaganda. . . One post, for example, included a comment about decorating a cake with a Jewish slur, a reference to putting Jews in gas chambers and praise for Hitler."; Mackey: "The jews fear that Donald Trump is Hitler because they know that they have done great evil in America. They fear justice will be done"); Trump defends former influencer convicted of election interference who has racist, antisemitic past - YouTube  The influencer, Douglass Mackey, has "a well-known history of pushing deeply racist, antisemitic, anti-Muslim and homophobic content online." Don Jr. called Mackay's twitter account "maybe" his "favorite Twitter account of all time". I understand Mackey's appeal to Donald and Don Jr. after reading a summary of his remarks. 

Don and Don Jr. recently attacked the Biden administration for suppressing Mackay's First Amendment rights to commit a felony. 18 U.S. Code § 241 - Conspiracy against rights (a felony, fine and/or imprisonment for up to 10 years; Mackey was convicted but is appealing the conviction) Trump has been charged under the same statute: Three Questions About Section 241, the Conspiracy Against Rights Statute | Lawfare   

Mackey Criminal Complaint; 

Eastern District of New York | Social Media Influencer Douglass Mackey Convicted of Election Interference in 2016 Presidential Race | United States Department of Justice; 

Eastern District of New York | Social Media Influencer Douglass Mackey Sentenced after Conviction for Election Interference in 2016 Presidential Race | United States Department of Justice Trump will receive over 75 million votes in 2024 and has a better than a 50% chance to be re-elected as President. 

I am already use to accepting that a mean spirited and vindictive psychopath and demagogue, who is ignorant, unwilling to learn, incapable of being truthful and possesses strong authoritarian tendencies, is supported by about 1/2 of the country and may become President again in 2024. Those observations have nothing to do with disagreements about issues or ideology.  

Putting aside the legalities, discussed below, it is just a bad idea to remove Trump's name from ballots. Trump will lose the popular vote in 2024, possibly by more than 10 million coming mostly from wide margins in California, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York, but can win the election through the electoral college vote. If that is what Americans want, and tens of millions do, then so be it. 

{Trump claimed that he did not lose the popular vote in 2016. He claimed that he won the popular vote since more than 3 million illegal immigrants voted for Hillary, and he did not receive a single one of those illegal votes. TRANSCRIPT: ABC News Anchor David Muir Interviews President Trump - ABC News, which I discuss in this post: Trump and Massive Voter Fraud Allegations-Cover For Voter Suppression}  

Colorado hands Trump a political gift by barring him from the ballot I agree that Trump will benefit from this decision. 

Trump Is Disqualified From the 2024 Ballot, Colorado Supreme Court Rules - The New York Times I previously discussed another ruling by a lower court judge that found that Trump had engaged in an insurrection within the meaning of the 14th Amendment but refused to disqualify him nonetheless since the Office of President was not mentioned by name in section 3 of that Amendment. The Colorado Supreme Court affirmed the lower court's decision that Trump had in fact engaged in an insurrection within the meaning of the 14th Amendment. Decision.pdf (see pages 96-116). The findings of fact are supported by the evidence. The court reversed the part of the lower court's decision that allowed Trump to remain on the primary ballot. This was a 4 to 3 ruling. 

Colorado justices face flood of threats after disqualifying Trump from the ballot

‘Authoritarian narcissist’: Paul Ryan offers candid opinion of Trump- YouTube  When reading Ryan's remarks, a line from Star Wars Revenge of the Sith popped into my brain. So This is How Liberty Dies | Revenge of the Sith (Episode III)- StarWars.com

See Russian state media praise Mitch McConnell and GOP - YouTube

Jen Rubin Asks... Why Do So Many Americans Want a Dictator - YouTube

Trump allegedly pressured Michigan canvassers not to certify 2020 vote: New report - YouTube; Trump recorded pressuring Wayne Co. canvassers not to certify 2020 vote Don the Authoritarian tried to cancel the certified vote total in a state where he lost by 154,188 votes: 

 

Donald Trump echoes Putin at campaign rally. Hear Jake Tapper’s response - YouTube

Two more sexual assault claims surface against head of conservative political organization 

The anti-democracy party in Tennessee passed a law that made it a felony to vote in the "wrong primary". Tennessee does not require its voters to register as Democrats or Republicans. If a person is "allegiant" to the Democrats and votes in a republican primary, that is now a crime in Tennessee. Federal lawsuit filed over new Tennessee law requiring polling places to warn voters against voting in the 'wrong' primary – Tennessee Lookout (see Tennessee Code § 2-7-115 (b) and Section 2-19-107 - Illegal registration or voting, Tenn. Code § 2-19-107 

As previously discussed in prior posts, the anti-democracy party in Tennessee decided that Nashville (Davidson County) voters would no longer be allowed to elect a Democrat to Congress. That decision was implemented by carving this major U.S. city into three parts and then joining each part with rural areas and small towns that were dominated by Trumpsters. One of those districts now extends into eastern Tennessee. Nashville/Davidson County is in the center: 

Davidson County/Nashville

When Nashville was a congressional district, the incumbent Democrat Jim Cooper won 100% of the vote in 2020. Tennessee's 5th Congressional District election, 2020 The republicans did not even bother to run a candidate against him. After the republican supermajority in the state legislature carved Nashville into three pieces, as shown above, no Democrat would have any chance to represent any of the three pieces that were joined with rural areas and small cities. Republicans have decided that Democrats will no longer be allowed to elect more than 1 congressional representative. So far, they have been unable to figure out how to carve up Memphis/Shelby County without endangering a currently safe republican congressional district. 

++++

Putin and His Orwellian Empire of Misery: 

Putin's Storm-Z troops 'mowed down' in human wave assaults on Avdiivka | Prof. Michael Clarke - YouTube Since the start of Russia's assaults on Avdiivka, the military strategy employed is similar to Pickett's Charge at Gettysburg. Russia uses human wave attacks across barren ground that results in the attacking force being slaughtered. The military logic is that eventually the Ukrainians will run out of ammunition. These wave assaults also highlight the total disregard Putin has for Russian soldiers, viewing them as human cannon fodder of no importance.  

How Putin’s Right-Hand Man Took Out Prigozhin - WSJ The person identified in this WSJ is Nikolai Patrushev. That guy is possibly best known for his claim that the U.S. is plotting to take over Russia since a volcano eruption in Wyoming will make the U.S. uninhabitable. There is a volcano in Yellowstone Park that last erupted about 640,000 years ago as a supervolcano and may never do so again. Yellowstone Caldera - Wikipedia

How Putin Turned a Western Boycott Into a Bonanza - The New York Times Putin, his coterie of Kleptocrats and the Russian government have benefited from Western companies leaving Russia since their assets and businesses were sold at heavily discounted prices. There is no benefit to the Russian people resulting from this mass exodus by western companies. There is a lesson here for western companies to learn, however. Never own any assets in Russia ever again.  

Ukrainian Marines on ‘Suicide Mission’ in Crossing the Dnipro River - The New York Times The article provides contradictory information to the progress claimed by Ukraine. Russia's multiple layers of defense are not going to be penetrated without first suppressing artillery fire on infantry and armored units and to a lesser extent neutralizing drones over areas under attack during a Ukrainian offensive.  

Putin: Ukraine's 'freebies' from the West are 'ending' - YouTube

Donald says that he will resolve this war within 24 hours after becoming President. 

In a recent column, the former republican David Frum reminded me of statement made by the former republican House Speaker McCarthy that was captured on tape:  “There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump.” Some in the room laughed. McCarthy responded, “Swear to God.”  Why Does the GOP Block Ukraine Aid? For Trump. - The Atlantic

Video: Ukraine's front lines become more grim as funding dries up | CNN

See why delay in US aid is 'alarming' for soldiers in Ukraine

+++

Xi warned Biden during summit that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with China Since Taiwan will not voluntarily become part of China, it is only a question of time before China resorts to force IMO.  

+++

1. Bought 100 REI.UN:CA at C$18.5 (Interactive Brokers Account- C$1 Commission):

Quotes: 

CADs: RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust (Canada: Toronto) 

USD Pink Sheets: RIOCF

Q3 2023 - Investor Presentation.pdf (192 properties, all located in Canada; 34M square feet; 97.5% committed occupancy; 85.8% retail, 10% office and 4.2% residential; apartments have 1.1M square feet and are part of mixed use properties) I like the growing movement into owning high quality apartment complexes. RioCan Living

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Website: RioCan REIT - Real Estate Investment Trust Company 

Last Elimination of REI:UN.CA: Item # 7 Sold 100 REI.UN:CA at C$27.04 (6/19/14 Post)(profit at C$101 and USD reportable at $48.4)-Item # 6 Bought 100 RioCan REIT at C$25.65 (10/31/13 Post)

Last Elimination of RIOCF: Stocks, Bonds & PolitiItem Item #3.C. Sold 20 RIOCF at US$17.7 (12/16/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $139.02) 

Dividend: Monthly at C$.09 per unit (C$1.08 annually), last raised from C$.085 effective for the March 2023 payment. There was a cut from $.12 to $.08 effective for the January 2021 payment. 

Canada will tax and withhold 15%.  

Claiming Foreign Taxes: Credit or Deduction? | Charles Schwab

Dividend Yield at C$18.51 Total Cost: 5.83%

RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust Announces December 2023 Distribution

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23): Q3 2023.pdf 

Revenues: C$269.11M, up 1.2%

FFO per unit: C$.45, up C$.01

AFFO per share: C$.39

Top 30 Tenants: 

Development Projects Under Construction: 

With the decline in the stock price, and a dividend yield looking more attractive compared to the five year Canadian government bond, I decided to buy a 100 unit lot, hoping to achieve a total annual return of 8%+.     

2. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks: 

Three of my Canadian reset preferred stocks will soon reset their coupons for 5 years at spreads to the 5 year Canadian government bond yield (PWFPRT:CA; ENBPRP:CA and PPLPRC:CA)  

Unfortunately, the 5 year yield has been coming down which will make those resets slightly less attractive. The yield topped out near 4.42% in early October 2023 and is current trading close to 3.31%. Canada 5 Year Government Bond Advanced Charts | MarketWatch Even at 3.31% plus the spreads, the current yield will still be attractive to me at my total cost numbers and that is partly due to rates coming down for other investments as well. Nonetheless, I may reduce at least one position where the coupon will soon reset.  

The preferred stock discussed below has already reset its coupon, so I am know what I will be receiving until 2028. 

A. Added 100 EMAPRC:CA at C$19.6 (Interactive Brokers Account - C$1 Commission): 

Quote: EMA-PC.TO

Issuer: Emera Inc. Stock Quote (Canada: Toronto) - Utility Holding Company

Last Earnings Report: Emera Reports 2023 Third Quarter Financial Results and $8.9 billion Three Year Capital Outlook | Emera

Website: Home | Emera; Regulated Companies | Emera

Emera Preferred Stock Prospectuses: Preferred Shares | Emera

Last Discussed: Item # 1. Bought Back 100 EMA.PRC:CA at C$18.45 (10/18/22 Post) 

Current Position: 200 shares

Average cost per share: C$19.04

Coupon: 2.65% spread to the 5 year Canadian Government Bond

Reset Period: Every 5 years

Last Reset Coupon August 2023: 6.434% paid on a C$25 par value

Emera Incorporated Announces Dividend Rates for Series C and Series D First Preferred Shares | Emera

This coupon indicates that the 5 year Canadian bond yield was at 3.784% on the reset date. (6.434% new coupon - 2.65% spread = 3.784% Five Year Canadian Bond Yield)

Yield at AC = 8.45%

(.06434% x. C$25 par value = C$1.6085 annual dividend per share ÷ C$19.04 Total Cost = 8.448%) Based on interest rates as they exist now, I view the 8.45% as high for a utility cumulative preferred stock. 

Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative

Stopper Clause: Standard. Emera must eliminate the common cash dividend before deferring its preferred stock dividends. 

Issuer Call Options: Only on reset dates. 

Common Stock: I previously eliminated my common stock position. Item # 2. Sold 100 EMR:CA at C$62.77 (4/21/22 Post)(profit snapshot = C$457). This preferred stocks has a higher dividend yield.

Prior Eliminations of EMAPRC:CA: 

Item # 1.A. Sold 100 EMAPRC:CA at C$22.03 (3/27/21 Post)(profit snapshot = C$747); 

South Gent's Comment Blog # 8: Sold 100 EMAPRC at C$21.96. Profit at C$429

EMAPRC:CA Realized Gains to Date: C$1,176

3. Small Ball Buys: 

EQR and MAA, discussed below, are apartment REITs.

I am starting out really slow, hoping for better entry points. 

A. Started EQR - Bought 2 at $60.97: 

Quote: Equity Residential (EQR) - Apartment REIT 

Cost: $121.94

Website: Home | EquityApartments.com

EQR SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23 

Properties as of 9/30/23: 80,683 Apartment Units

Dividend: Quarterly at $.6625 per share ($2.65 annually), last raised from $.625 effective for the 2023 second quarter payment. The quarterly rate was at $.40 in 2013. Dividends | Equity Residential

There was a $3 per share special dividend paid in 2016. Equity Residential Declares Special Cash Dividend of $3 per Share 

Yield at $60.97: 4.35%

I am still having trouble accepting less than 5% when starting a common stock position.  

Next Ex Dividend: 12/29/23

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23): SEC Filing 

Revenue: $724.067M

FAD per share: $.96

Occupancy: 96%

Net Income to Normalized FFO Reconciliation: 

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers)

Morningstar (12/13/23): 5 stars with a fair value of $87

Argus (11/10/23): Buy with a PT of $65, revised down $72 primarily due to higher interest rate costs which have continued to decline after this report was published. 

S&P (11/1/23): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $53. Notes that pricing power in apartment rents is diminishing. Y-O-Y growth was over 10% in 2022, 5% in 2023, and the analyst predicts 2%-3% in 2024 which is consistent with the ongoing trend.

Operating Subsidiary SU Bonds Rated at A3/A-  

Credit Ratings | Equity Residential

B. Started MAA - Bought 1 at 133.96; 1 at $131.17: 

Quote: Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA) - Apartment REIT 

Cost: $265.13

MAA SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23 

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.47 per share ($5.88 annually), increased from $1.4 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment. MAA Announces 5% Increase to Quarterly Common Dividend MAA | Luxury Apartment Rentals

Dividends MAA | Luxury Apartment Rentals

The annual rate was at $2.92 in 2014. 

I would characterize the MAA historical dividend growth as better than most REITs. 

Average cost per share: $132.56 (2 shares)

Yield at AC: 4.44%

Next Ex Dividend: 1/11/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23): SEC Filing 

Revenues: $542.042M

E.P.S. = $.94

Core FFO per share: $2.19

Core AFFO per share: $1.99

Funds Available for Distribution: $191.02M

FAD per share: $1.594 (covers quarterly dividend)

Definition of FAD: 

Net Income to FAD Reconciliation: 

Bond Ownership: I currently own 2 MAA 3.75% SU bonds, issued by its operating partnership, that mature on 6/15/24. 

C. Started FLCA - Bought 5 at $32.25: 

Quote: Franklin FTSE Canada ETF Overview 

Cost: $160.75

Sponsor's website: Franklin FTSE Canada ETF - FLCA

Expense Ratio: .09% 

A comparable ETF, iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC), has a .50% expense ratio. 

Dividend: Variable and Paid Semiannually

Last Dividend: $.5242 per share

Last 2 Dividends: $.827

Yield at $32.25 Using $.827: 2.56%

Last Ex Dividend: 12/15/23 (bought on the ex dividend date)

Top 10 Holdings as of 12/15/23: 

Of those stocks, I have positions in Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Toronto-Dominion (TD); Enbridge Inc. (ENB); Bank of Montreal (BMO) and Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) The largest dollar position is in ENB which I intend to pare when and if the price goes back over $40. I eliminated a small ball position in Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ) earlier this year. Item # 1.A. Eliminated CNQ - Sold 10 at $55.2 (6/10/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $237.5). That elimination proved to be premature.  

The index tracked by this fund will have a heavy concentration in Canadian banks which have underperformed this year but have started to do better as interest rates declined. Another sector which has struggled in 2023 is the Canadian energy infrastructure companies (Enbridge, Pembina, TC Energy, own all three). 

Of the remaining top 25 companies, my largest position is 100 shares of POW:CA. Power Corp. of Canada (Canada: Toronto); Item # 1. Bought 100 POW:CA at C$21.37 (5/30/20 Post) Most of my prior trades in Power Corporation have been in the USD priced shares traded on the pink sheet exchange. {Item # 1 Sold PWCDF at US$33.65 (12/16/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,852.93) and the links to other trades in that post}

Currency Risk: A USD priced ETF that owns Canadian stocks priced in CADs will be subject to currency risk based on fluctuation in the CAD/USD exchange rate.   

D. Added $250 to VHCOX: 

Quote: Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund Overview 

The fund is currently closed to new investors. 

Sponsor's website: VHCOX-Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund Investor Shares

Expense Ratio: .43%

This purchase was made on the year end ex dividend date. The total payment was $1.81 per share. 

Prior to this add, I owned 64+ shares with an average cost per share of $38.45: 

Priced as of 12/18/23 Close

The total cost is from a $3,000 purchase made in 2013. Item # 5 Initiated Position in VHCOX (4/9/13 Post)

Dividend: Paid annually at a variable rate. 

VHCOX Stock Dividend History & Date

The amount of the dividend will depend mostly on the long term capital gains realized during the year. As of 11/30/23, the fund's unrealized gains was at $42.77 per share or 56.92% of the net asset value. 

I have been taking the dividend in cash for several years. Taking fund dividends in cash is in essence a form of liquidation without selling shares. 

The year end 2022 distribution was $5.86 per share: 

I received $376.65 in cash. 

For 64+ shares, I received $562.88 in cash based on a $8.76 dividend per share paid in December 2021. Item # 1.O. Year End Distribution Paid by VHCOX (12/31/21 Post)

2020: $6.9984 

I received  $449.61 in cash. 

2019: $4.3874

I received $341.55 in cash

2018: $6.8834

I received $540.21 in cash. 

Top 10 Holdings as of 9/30/23:

Sell Discussions: Item # 3.A. Pared VHCOX-Sold $500 at $71.62 and $500 at $73/02 (9/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $470.23); Item # 4 Sold 24+ VHCOX at $71.16 (1/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $562.11); Item # 6-Sold All VHCOX Shares Bought with Dividends (12/4/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $222.86): Item # 2.A. Sold 115+ VHCOX at $57.97 (3/1/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $522.35) 

Total Realized Gains from share sales:  +$1,777.55

VHCOX  Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)

VHCOX – Performance| Morningstar

VHCOX – Portfolio | Morningstar

E. Added to PRWCX - Bought $250 at $33.66: 

The purchase was funded out of a T. Rowe Price Treasury MM fund. 

Quote: T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund Overview 

This is a balanced mutual fund that is currently closed to new investors. 

I added to this position on the annual ex dividend day. I received $1,472.49 in cash. 

I use the cash paid by this fund to partially fund everyday living expenses. 

I have been taking the dividends in cash for a long time. That keeps me from selling the shares, and I have sold none. This is a mental thing for me. 

Dividends: Paid Annually

Position Prior to Add: 1,046+ shares with an average cost per share of $20.96: 

Priced as of 12/18/23 Close

PRWCX – Portfolio – T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation | Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings) The fund currently has a 5 star rating. 

G. Added $50 to MAPTX at $18.18: 

Quote: Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund

Sponsor's website Pacific Tiger Fund-Matthews Asia

Expense Ratio: 1.1%

Top 10 Holdings as of 11/30/23: 

I do not have a position in any of those stocks.  

Dividend History: 

This mutual fund has been a feast or famine investment. For some time now, the fund has experienced a prolonged period of famine and is showing no signs yet that the feast period, usually of a short duration, will soon start. Consequently, my adds are miniscule and my total position is just 23+ shares with an average cost per share at $22.79. 

Rated at 3 Stars by Morningstar: MAPTX 

MAPTX – Performance – Matthews Pacific Tiger Investor 

Through 12/15/23

YTD Total Return: -7.11%

Annual Average Total Returns: 

 1 Year        -7.53%

 3 Years:    -9.72%

 5 Years:   +  .14% 

10 Years   +3.39% 

15 Years   +8.76%

Starting in 2013, the two best years were in 2017 and 2020 when the total returns were at 39.96% and 28.83% respectively. 

Stocks of companies located in the Asia-Pacific region, which excludes Japan, have underperformed the S&P 500, but that is not always the case.  

A comparable ETF is iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) which had an average annual ten year total return of +2.89 % and 5 years at +2.02 % through 12/15. The 15 year total return was at 6.58% as of 12/15/23. 

Prior Sells: Item # 1 Eliminated MAPTX in Schwab Account - Sold 248+ shares at $27.9 (6/23/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $665.47); Item # 4 Eliminated MAPTX in Fidelity Account -Sold 218+ at $28.29 (8/16/17 Post) (profit snapshot = $2,573.82)

Prior to starting this blog in 2008, I sold 32+ MAPTX in 2007

Profit $338.62

That sell was part of widespread liquidation of stock ETFs and mutual funds that year. 2007 Stock Fund Eliminations and Pares As previously discussed, I was already uncomfortable in 2007 when the year started with massive defaults in subprime and Alt-A home mortgage loans. My anxiety went into overdrive by the Trigger Event sell signal that came in August 2007 that then had multiple confirmations thereafter. VIX Chart from 2007: Alerts and Triggers Major Disruption of Cyclical Stable Bull VIX Pattern

MAPTX Realized Gains to date: $3,577.91

H. Added 5 RYLD at $16.65 - Schwab Account: 

Quote:  Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF- Buy/Write ETF

Cost: $83.25

"The Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD) follows a “covered call” or “buy-write” strategy, in which the Fund buys the stocks in the Russell 2000 Index (at times by exposure to the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF), and “writes” or “sells” corresponding call options on the Russell 2000 Index."

Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Added to RYLD - Bought 5 at $18.05 (6/24/23 Post) 

Investment Strategy: Monthly Income Generation 

Sponsor's website: Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD)

Net Expense Ratio: .6%

New Average cost per share this account: $18.68 (55+ shares)

Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate.

Last 12 Dividends: $2.14 per share, rounded up. 

Yield at $18.68 Average cost per share Using $2.14 = 11.46%

Next Ex Dividend: 12/28/23

I. Started BSTZ - Bought 10 at $17.03; 10 at $17-Fidelity Account: 

Quote: BlackRock Science & Technology Term Trust Overview - Unleveraged CEF

Cost: $340.28

Investment Strategy: Monthly Income Generation from CEFs. While I own CEFs that pay monthly dividends in several accounts, I intend to devote sufficient capital for purchases in my Fidelity account that will bring the monthly dividend payments to over $200. The dollar amount stood at $119+ in November as noted in Item # 1.A. Started MEGI - Bought 10 at $13.08 in Fidelity Account (12/16/23 Post) 

Sponsor's website: Science and Technology Term Trust (see footnote 1 for term information, dissolves on 6/26/2031, but may be extended for a short term period thereafter)

BSTZ SEC Filings 

SEC Filing Holdings as of 9/30/23: 

This fund will have substantial exposure to non-publicly traded securities. 

Those securities are restricted equity positions in private companies. Those include the following: Astranis Space Technologies; Automatic; ByteDance; CNEX Labs; Databricks; DataRobot; Deep Instinct; FlixMobility; GrubMarket; Klama Holdings; Mythic AI; Psi Quantum; Rapyd Financial Network; ResearchGate; Samba Nova Systems; Snorkel AI; Synk Ltd.; Think and Learn Private; Trax; Trumid Holdings and Unqork. There are a few more that I did not list above. 

Restricted securities, based on original cost $408.51+M, represented 35.2% of assets as of 9/30/23. The fund is consequently a way to indirectly participate in hedge fund type positions without paying hedge fund fees. The downside is that the operating performance of those companies will be unknown to me and one or more wipeouts may occur.  

I did a few google searches to learn something about those private companies. 

Examples: 

ByteDance - Inspire Creativity, Enrich Life; TikTok owner ByteDance offers to buy back shares from staff at $160 apiece | Reuters

The Data and AI Company — Databricks

DataRobot AI Platform | Deliver Value from AI

I believe this is the company referenced as Flix Mobility: Long distance bus operator FlixBus; New umbrella brand: FlixMobility is now called Flix

Power-efficient analog compute for edge AI - Mythic

PsiQuantum - Building the World's First Useful Quantum Computer

Rapyd: Global Payment Processing and Fintech | Liberate Global Commerce

ResearchGate | Find and share research

SambaNova Systems | Generative AI, optimized for enterprise and government

Snorkel AI | Data-centric AI for the enterprise

Snyk | Developer security | Develop fast. Stay secure. | Snyk

CNEX LABS – Leading Innovation for Semiconductor Storage

I believe this is information about the company called Trax. Trax Secures $640 Million Funding Round Led by SoftBank Vision Fund 2 and BlackRock to Transform Retail Through Digital Technologies - Trax Retail

Trumid - A differentiated trading solution

Codeless Development Platform for Enterprise Applications | Unqork

Unrealized Gain Information as of 9/30/23:

SEC Filed Shareholder Semiannual Report for the Period Ending 6/30/23 

Average cost per share: $17.01 (20 shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.1015 per share, ROC supported. 

The only way to support the dividend is through realized capital gains. The monthly dividend has been cut several times this year, having started 2023 at $.192 per share, which was supported entirely by a long term capital gain. All subsequent dividends that were not entirely or partially supported by realized capital gains have been classified as ROC, at least until the fund tallies its year end realized gains. 

Given this dividend yield history, I view the current payout to be so unreliable that I will not compute a dividend yield. The rate may go back up at least temporarily when and if the fund realizes more capital gains. Success or failure will largely depend on the private company equity positions which can be fairly characterized as high risk.   

The erratic dividend history payments will probably result in the fund trading at a large discount as now. 

Last Ex Dividend: 12/14/23

Data Date of 12/18/23 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $21.34

(NAV is going to be mushy given the equity interests in non-publicly traded companies)

Closing Market Price: $17

Discount: -20.34%   

3 Year Average Discount: -11.43%

BSTZ - CEF Connect 

4. Small Ball Sells: 

A. Eliminated ONB - Sold 25 at $17.24 - Schwab Account: 

Quote: Old National Bancorp (ONB)

Proceeds: $431

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

ONB Analyst Estimates

ONB SEC Filings

Old National Bancorp - Investor Relations

Old National Bancorp - Investor Relations

Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share, last raised from $.13 effective for the 2020 first quarter. The quarterly dividend was cut from $.23 to $.07 in the 2009 second quarter, which is understandable under the circumstances. The slow pace in raising the dividend thereafter is not. 

ONB Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

The low dividend payout and poor dividend growth history generally result in short term holding periods with liquidations considered in the $17+ range.  

Profit Snapshot: +$83.45

Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to ONB - Bought 5 at $13.81; 5 at $13.27 - Schwab Account (10/28/23 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing substantive to add here. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release

Last Eliminated: Item # 4.D. Eliminated ONB - Sold  20 at $17.53 (7/29/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.01)

Largest Gain to Date: Item 2.A. Eliminated ONB-Sold 50 Shares at $18.55 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $312.97)

ONB Realized Gains to Date: $1,095.83 (currently at #20 in this basket strategy)

B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in AMCX - Sold 27 at $20.17: 

Quote: AMC Networks Inc. Cl A (AMCX)

Proceeds: $544.84

"AMC Networks (Nasdaq: AMCX) is a global entertainment company known for its popular and critically acclaimed content. Its brands include targeted streaming services AMC+, Acorn TV, Shudder, Sundance Now, ALLBLK and the anime-focused HIDIVE streaming service, in addition to AMC, BBC AMERICA (operated through a joint venture with BBC Studios), IFC, SundanceTV, WE tv, IFC Films and RLJE Films. AMC Studios, the Company’s in-house studio, production and distribution operation, is behind some of the biggest titles and brands known to a global audience, including The Walking Dead, the Anne Rice catalog and the Agatha Christie library. The Company also operates AMC Networks International, its international programming business, and 25/7 Media, its production services business."

AMCX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 12/18/23, the average E.P.S. estimates for 2023, 2024 and 2025 were $6.7, $6.57 and $6.26 respectively. The valuation at the current price makes no sense but that has been the case for a long time. 

Analysts are generally negative about this stock based on cord cutting, a difficult advertising market for cable networks, costs associated with new programs, the now resolved strikes, AMC's reliance on the Walking Dead series, the large number of larger competitors competing for streaming dollars, and relatively small size. I subscribe to AMC+. Besides the Walking Dead series and its many offshoots, AMC experienced success with the Mad Men and Killing Eve series. 

AMCX SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23 

Website: AMC Networks Inc.

Profit Snapshot: Net of +$112.85

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.B. Pared AMCX-Sold 5 at $53.25 (8/12/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $150.96) 

The 2021 spike in the stock price was not based IMO on the Stock Jocks revaluing the company based on earnings. The primary reason was that a hedge fund called Archegos Capital Management had bought, using margin,  huge positions in AMCX competitors Viacom (now called Paramount) and Discovery (now Warner Media) stocks. 

The fund then went bankrupt after a margin call and forced liquidation causing those stocks to collapse in prices. ViacomCBS, Discovery Stock Surge, Meltdown Driven By Busted Hedge Fund – Deadline The WSJ reported that the fund had lost $8B in 10 days. 

The AMCX stock also received a lift due to a lower share count resulting from an October 2020 Dutch Tender Offer. AMC Networks Announces Final Results of Modified Dutch Auction Tender Offer AMCX purchase 10,802,550 shares at $23.2 which then represented 26.6% of the Class A stock outstanding.   

I intend to keep long term my remaining position and may add to it at below $15. (Schwab Account: 35 shares with an AC of $18.03 per share)

Dividend: None and none expected. This will always be a major negative for me. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23): SEC Filed Press Release 

Revenues: $636.954M

E.P.S. = $1.44

Adjusted E.P.S. = $1.85

Free cash flow: $99.15M

Nine Month Adjusted E.P.S. $6.49

Subsequent Developments: 

Redeemed its 5% SU due in 2024 on 12/12/23. 

"On November 28, 2022, the Company commenced a restructuring plan designed to achieve significant cost reductions in light of “cord cutting” and the related impacts being felt across the media industry as well as the broader economic outlook. During the third quarter of 2023, the Company substantially completed the plan and exited a portion of its office space in its corporate headquarters in New York and office space in Silver Spring, Maryland and Woodland Hills, California. In connection with exiting a portion of the New York office, the Company recorded impairment charges of $11.6 million, consisting of $9.1 million for operating lease right-of use assets and $2.5 million for leasehold improvements." That redemption could have been funded out of the $955.187M in cash owned as of 9/30/23 (p. 1, 10-Q) 

While the Board has authorized a program to repurchase up to $1.5B in common stock, no purchases were made in the third quarter when the stock price was at 5 year lows near $13.  

As previously discussed, I had a negative reaction to this 2021 news item: AMC settles 'Walking Dead' lawsuit with filmmaker Frank Darabont for $200 million That reaction was based on AMCX saying in its SEC filings that the suit had no merit and then giving the plaintiff a good chunk of what he was asking for in the lawsuit.  

5. Treasury Bill Purchases at Auction - Schwab Account: 

A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 12/18/23 Auction: 

91 Day Bill

Matures on 3/21/24

Interest: $66.48

Investment Rate: 5.42%

B. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 12/8/23 Auction: 

182 Day Bill

Matures on 6/20/24

Interest: $129.67 

Investment Rate: 5.354%

C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 12/20/23 Auction: 

119 Day Bill

Matures on 4/23/24

Interest: $82.25

Investment Rate: 5.4%

6. Exchange Traded First Mortgage Baby Bonds: 

A. Bought 10 ELC at $21.93 in Vanguard Account; and 5 at $21.78 and 5 at $21.6 in Schwab Account: 

Quote: Entergy Louisiana LLC  First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% Series due 2066

Cost: $436.2 (weighted yield at 5.59%)

Maximum Position in All Taxable Accounts: 300 shares. 

Current Position in Taxable Accounts: 80 shares

Last Discussed: Item # 7.A. Added to ELC - Bought 5 at $20.03 in Schwab Account  (11/4/23 Post) 

Wholly owned operating subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)

ETR SEC Filings 

ETR 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23 (Entergy Louisiana results can be found at pages 121-142)

Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds

Description: Prospectus

Par Value: $25

Interest Payments: Quarterly

Security: First Mortgage on substantially all assets 

Call protection has expired. 

Maturity: 9/1/2066 unless called earlier at issuer's option.  

Interest Payments: Quarterly

Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment, even if bought the day before that date)

Last Ex Interest: 11/29/23

Credit Ratings: A2/A

I also own Entergy Louisiana $1,000 par value first mortgage bonds that trade in the bond market. The maturities range start in 2025 and end in 2028. The next one to mature is the 3.78% FM that matures on 4/1/25. Bond Page | FINRA.org The last one to mature that I own is the 3.25% FM maturing on 4/1/28. Bond Page | FINRA.org

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.