Dollar Value of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Cost of Small Ball Stock Purchases: $833.55
Small Ball Stock Sell Proceeds: $354.14 (10 shares of STAG)
The 10 shares of STAG were sold at a price higher than the closing price on 2/19/25 when the VIX was trading below 20.
Realized Gain STAG 10 Shares: $149.57
Net Inflow Common Stocks: +$479.41
As a practical matter, my stock trading is in a stall mode.
Corporate Bonds $10,000 in principal amount (Utility First Mortgage Bonds at $8K of that total with the remaining $2K in a utility senior unsecured bond)
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $15,000 in principal amount, increased the total due to an influx of proceeds from maturing treasury bills in my Schwab account.
Treasury Note Purchased at Auction: $1,000 in principal amount
Total Corporate Bonds, T Bills and T Noe: $26,000 in principal amount
May Treasury Yield Curve:
Interest rates on treasury notes and bonds are trending higher. Short term treasury yields are still anchored by the FF range of 4.25% - 4.5%. The annual interest payments on the federal debt will soon surpass $1 trillion per year. What Is the National Debt Costing Us?
5 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rates as of 5/29/25: 2.38%
CME FEDWatch Tool - July FED Meeting as of 5/29/25 close:
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Trump's tariff tally: $34 billion and counting, global companies say | Reuters
In the government's second estimate, real GDP growth in the first quarter was revised to a -.2% annual rate from -.3% in the first estimate. The negative number resulted from companies importing goods in the first quarter to avoid paying the republican tariff taxes. Imports are a subtraction from GDP and reduced nominal GDP by 4.9%. Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), 1st Quarter 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
There was a significant reduction in personal consumption expenditures to just a 1.2% annual pace, down from 1.8% in the first estimate and a substantial decline from the +3.7% and +4% final numbers for the 2024 3rd and 4th quarters respectively.
Citing those kind of statistics make the Trumpsters very angry, sufficient to hurl invectives and juvenile insults at anyone who even mentions the data.
Pending Home Sales Declined 6.3% in April
Court of International Trade strikes down Trump's reciprocal tariffs A 3 judge panel issued a summary judgment and enjoined the government from enforcing the tariffs imposed by Trump using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. This would include all of the "reciprocal" tariffs and the tariffs on Mexico, China and Canada related to fentanyl. The government is appealing that order. The next major development is whether the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit grants the government's motion to stay the injunction during the appeal process.
In addition to the appeal, there are several options now available to the government to impose tariffs without congressional approval as discussed in this article. Trump expected to find a workaround after trade court blocks tariffs The easiest is to impose a tariff of up to 150 days to address a balance of payments issue pursuant to section 122 of a 1974 trade act. Imposing 15% tariffs using that law will not cause any foreign country to enter into a trade deal viewed as unfavorable given the time period and the limit on the maximum tariff.
My Video: Major Development: 3 Judge Panel Blocks Enforcement of Most Tariffs Imposed by Trump - YouTube
The chaos and drama are not over. Trump's tactics will simply change without an appellate court's stay of the panel's injunction.
Consumer confidence for May was much stronger than expected on optimism for trade deals The consumer confidence index increased to 98 from 86. Consumers reacted positively to Trump rolling back the tariffs on China.
Ships are canceling crossings to U.S., and Trump’s new 50% E.U. tariff threat isn’t likely to help - MarketWatch (subscription publication)
Best Buy (BBY) cuts profit outlook due to tariffs BBY noted that it has already hiked some prices in response.
Here’s how much a 'Made in the USA' iPhone would cost
The ultra-rich are moving gold to Singapore as global risks mount
Tesla Europe sales plunge 49% as Elon Musk brand fallout continues (5/27/25)
Home prices in the biggest 20 markets decline for the first time in over two years. Here’s where they’re expected to fall the most-MarketWatch The index declined .12% in March compared to February, seasonally adjusted. The 12 month increase was at 4.1%, down from 4.5% for the 12 month period ending in February. Release.pdf On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the annual increase for the 20 city index was 3.4%, down from 4%.
Trump erupts over Wall Street's 'TACO trade' nickname for his tariffs "Trump always chickens out". This may make it more likely that he will not back down in the future.
US business spending on equipment softening as tariff uncertainty persists | Reuters
US-China trade talks "stalled," Treasury Secretary Bessent says That did not take long.
Trump "Truth" Social Post: "The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!"
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'Absurd!' Judge Richard Leon blasts Trump executive order targeting top law firm; WilmerHale Wins Quick Ruling Against Trump’s Executive Order This is a link to the judge's opinion published on 5/27/25. Memorandum Opinion.pdf This is an excerpt from page 1 of that decision
In my opinion, which has been confirmed by 3 federal district court judges so far, Trump's executive orders targeting law firms are blatant violations of the 1st, 5th and 6th Amendments.
I also view those EOs as impeachable offenses along with the extortion like pressure applied to other law firms to provide up to $100M in free legal advice to clients selected by Trump in order to avoid the EO targeting their business.
Judge Leon, appointed by George W. Bush, granted the law firm WilmerHale a summary judgment that Trump had violated those constitutional rights.
How many active republican politicians have criticized, even in the mildest possible way, our Dear Leader's executive orders targeting law firms? I am not aware any. Some stay quiet out of fear. Most support what Trump is doing.
Trump's attorneys are reportedly threatening to sue news organizations that criticized his EOs targeting law firms. Paramount Offers Trump Millions To End '60 Minutes' Suit & Clear Skydance Merger (Trump attorney: “During ongoing settlement talks, CBS News and Paramount aired a new, defamatory 60 Minutes segment regarding President Trump’s legitimate and necessary executive orders addressing unlawful activity in the legal profession, including election interference and employment discrimination. CBS and Paramount’s attempts to subvert the legal process with lies and smears may necessitate additional corrective legal action, which President Trump reserves the right to pursue")
I view the current lawsuit against Paramount as frivolous, an ongoing legal form of extortion, and part of Trump's ongoing effort to intimidate the free press. If Paramount settles that suit, I will not watch CBS News again.
The only viable option is for CBS to resist Trump's efforts to control news organizations and their content through use of coercive tactics that include frivolous litigation and funding cutoffs.
And, if the news organizations win on the merits, they need to seek legal redress from the lawyers who brought the lawsuits and the client that they represent. Taking a knee to Trump, kissing his ring and rewarding him for his constitutional violations will only encourage more of the same.
Trump's now routine authoritarian, unlawful and unconstitutional actions and abuses of Presidential power are supported by tens of millions. That is just a fact. This issue is discussed by Larry Sabato - Peering Into the Crystal Ball | Raging Moderates-YouTube The problem is far more serious long term than just focusing on what Trump has done and will do during his second term.
George Conway summed up the long term problem as follows:
America Did This to Itself - The Atlantic This pervasive problem will remain after Trump completes his second term.
Trump slams Biden administration on Memorial Day He called democrats "scum" and federal judges requiring adherence to the rule of law "monsters".
Trump team pauses new student visa interviews as it weighs expanding social media vetting - POLITICO If a foreign student makes a comment similar to what Trump does multiple times each day, that will be grounds for denying them student visas.
The New Dark Age - The Atlantic ("By destroying knowledge, Trumpists seek to make the country more amenable to their political domination, and to prevent meaningful democratic checks on their behavior.") Trump has launched a war against facts and knowledge. The purpose is the same as his constant attacks on the free press, anyone who fact checks him, creating a cult of True Believers, labeling accurate information Fake News, calling the free press the "enemy of the people", and making tens of thousands of demonstrably false and misleading statements, easily proven to be so, that are accepted without question or doubt as true by tens of millions.
Longtime reporters 'almost speechless' over Trump's 'transparent bribery' plot
The Trump Presidency’s World-Historical Heist - The Atlantic (subscription publication)
NPR sues Trump over executive order slashing federal funding - CBS News
Harvard sues Trump administration over international student enrollment ban - CBS News; Judge blocks Trump administration from revoking Harvard's enrollment of international students-NPR
Donald Trump Demands Harvard Students' Names - Newsweek
Trump administration seeks to cut remaining Harvard federal contracts; Harvard: Trump administration moves to cancel federal contracts with Harvard worth some $100 million
Fed Chair Powell praises integrity and public service amid unrelenting Trump attacks
More than 100 National Security Council staffers put on administrative leave
Republican-Appointed Judge Warns Trump Over 'Doubly' Violating Constitution - Newsweek
Mahmoud Khalil Was Finally Allowed To Hold His Newborn Son—Despite The Trump Administration Trying To Stop Him | Vanity Fair (subscription publication)
Health expert calls Trump's medical research cuts "reckless destruction" - CBS News
What Are People Still Doing on X? - The Atlantic
Donald Trump Makes Canada a New Offer to Become 51st State - Newsweek (5/27/25)
Trump pardons Virginia sheriff convicted of federal bribery charges - ABC News Trump officially pardons reality TV stars Todd and Julie Chrisley - ABC News "In their sentencing memo, prosecutors said the Chrisleys had engaged in a "fifteen-year fraud spree." Trump can relate. New York business fraud lawsuit against the Trump Organization - Wikipedia
Trump says he's considering pardoning defendants in Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot - CBS News
RFK Jr. and the Worm That Ate His Brain Threaten to Ban Government Scientists From Publishing in Top Medical Journals | Vanity Fair (subscription publication)
The fight against the growing power and influence of fascists in America, easily the most powerful single political movement in the U.S. IMO, will be a long and arduous one with an uncertain final outcome.
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1. Small Ball Stock Buys:
All stock trades, except for NOMD, were made in my Schwab account.
I am for the most part averaging down by buying small lots until I hit a 100 share position. I will then decide whether or not to go higher.
A. Added 10 DOC at $16.75:
Quote: Healthpeak Properties Inc. (DOC) - Healthcare REIT
Cost $167.5
Website: Home - Healthpeak
Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Added to DOC - Bought 10 at $17.18; 10 at $17 (5/16/25 Post)
New Average cost per share: $17.36 (90 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.1017 per share ($1.22 annually)
Yield at New AC per share: 7.028%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/19/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discuss this report in a recent post. Item # 1.B. Started DOC in Schwab Account - Bought 50 at $17.61 (5/2/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
Last Elimination: Item # 1.G. Eliminated PEAK-Sold 15 at $31.08 (3/6/2021 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.01)
Purchase Restriction: 10 share lots with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: Undetermined but likely no more than 200 shares.
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| Pages 32-33 Annual Report |
Quote: UMH Properties Inc. (UMH) - A REIT that owns manufactured home communities
Cost: $81.1
Website: UMH Properties | Manufactured Home Sales & Home Communities
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New average cost per share: $16.87 (30 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.225 per share ($.9 annually), last raised from $.215 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment.
Last Ex Dividend: 5/15/25
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added to UMH - Bought 5 at $17.05; 5 at $16.7 (5/16/25 Post) I discussed the 2025 first quarter earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Report
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. This is a risk mitigation strategy that I use.
D. Added to APLE - Bought 5 at $11.5:
Proceeds: $57.5
Website: Apple Hospitality REIT
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Bought 7 APLE at $11.74 (4/25/25 Post) I discussed the 2024 4th quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New Average cost per share: $13.07 (45 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.08 per share ($.96 annually)
APLE Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $13.07: 7.345%
Last Ex Dividend: Today, 5/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filed Press Release
Revenues: $327.702M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.13
Modified FFO: $.32, down from $.34
Revenue Per Available Room: $111.04
Comparable Hotel Occupancy: 71.1%, down from 72.2%
Reconciliation GAAP to MFFO:
2025 Outlook:
Purchase Restriction: 5 or 10 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
E. Added 5 COLD at $16.8; 5 at $16.65; 5 at $16.5:
Quote: Americold Realty Trust Inc. (COLD) - Cold Storage REIT
Cost: $249.75
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New Average Cost per share: $17.18(30 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually)
COLD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC = 5.336%
Next Ex Dividend: 6/30/25
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Initiated COLD - Bought 10 at $17.8; 5 at $17.55 (5/23/25 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that recent post. SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
F. Added to CPB - Bought 1 at $34.39, 1 at $33.83, 1 at $33.19:
Quote: Campbell's Co. (CPB)
CPB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Products - The Campbell's Company
Chart: Major Bear Market Pattern
New Average cost per share: $37.2 (28+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.39 per share ($1.56 annually)
CPB Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $37.2: 4.19%
Next Ex Dividend: 7/3/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 1/26/25): I discussed this report in this post: Item # 1.P. Added 1 CPB at $37.13 (4/13/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
CPB Realized Gains to Date: $919.04
Most of the gain was realized in 2010: Item # 3 Sold 70 CPB at $35.79 (9/8/2010 Post)(profit snapshot = $718.94) There have been no stock splits subsequent to that 2010 sell transaction.
2. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Sold 50 of 300 PPLPRC:CA at C$22.15 (C$1 IB Commission):
Issuer: Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA) - Energy Infrastructure
PBA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investor Presentation January 2025.pdf (page 68 has a map of PBA's facilities)
Last PBA Discussion: Item # 3.P. Pared PBA - Sold 2 at $36.17 (2/25/25 Post)(contains links to prior sell discussions)
PBA realized gains to date: $2,205.42
I have a small ball position in the USD priced common shares.
PPL.PRC:CA Profit Snapshot: +C$244
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| Unrealized Gain at C$22.15: +C$1,470 |
The AC was reduced from C$16.43.
Coupon Reset: The coupon reset effective 3/1/24 at a 2.6% spread to the 5 year Canadian bond yield of 3.419%. Press Release
Coupon remains in effect to, but excluding 3/1/2029.
The security can be called only on reset dates.
Par Value: C$25
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
Yield at AC to 3/1/29: 9.25%
Calculation: .06019% coupon x C$25 par value = C$1.50475 annual dividend per share ÷ C$16.26 average cost per share = 9.2543%
DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings on Pembina Pipeline Corporation | Morningstar DBRS The preferred stock is rated Pfd-3 (High). That rating corresponds to BB+ at S&P.
PPL.PRC:CA Realized Gains to Date: +C$1,176
Other PPL Reset Equity Preferred Trades: +C$565
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| 2017 PPL.PRG 100 Shares +C507 |
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| 2016 PPL.PRE 50 Shares +C$58 |
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| P. 27, 10-Q |
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| Position after pare/Price as of Close on 5/28/25 |
While STAG is regarded as one of the best industrial REITs, the field is littered with well capitalized companies (e.g. WPC) that can effectively compete for customers or acquisitions.
Recent FAD per share growth, which I view as more important than the total FFO, has been sluggish. I view FAD and FFO per share as being more important than the dollar amounts of FAD and FFO. REITs will increase their share count through ATM programs and stock offerings. As of 12/31/24, STAG had 183.199M diluted shares outstanding, up from 62.778M as of 12/31/2014.
For REITS, the issue is my share of the FAD and FFO as a shareholder. With new share sales and more debt added, the dollar amounts may be growing nicely on a percentage basis but the per share amounts may be hardly moving up at all.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
GAAP E.P.S. = $.48
Core FFO per share: $.61
Cash Available for Distribution (CAD) = $106.5M or $.57
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding: $186.758M, up from $181.991 for the 2024 first quarter.
To keep track of my maturities each week, I take a snapshot of the trades and then arrange them in chronological order.
These are the bonds and treasuries that I own that will mature next week:
A. Bought 2 Potomac Electric Power 5.2% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 3/15/34 at a Total Cost of 98.85:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of the utility holding company Exelon Corp. (EXC)
EXC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
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| Page 30, 10-Q |
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.364%
Current Yield at TC: 5.26%
B. Bought 2 Union Electric 5.2% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 4/1/34 at a Total Cost of 99.21:
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Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of the utility holding company Ameren Corp. (AEE)
AEE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
 |
| In Millions, page 8 |
 |
| P. 90, Annual Report |
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Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
ETR 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.432%
Current Yield at TC: 5.258%
I now own 5 bonds.
D. Bought 2 Wisconsin Power & Light 5.375% SU Maturing on 3/30/34 at a Total Cost of 99.413:
%205.375%25%203:30:34.png)
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Alliant Energy Corp. (LNT)
LNT SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25
LNT SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
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| In Millions, P. 61 Annual Report |
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 5.458%
Current Yield at TC: 5.407%
E. Bought 1 Entergy Mississippi 5.8% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 4/15/55 at a Total Cost of 96.232:
%205.8%25%204:15:55.png)
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
ETR 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 Entergy Mississippi data starts at page 97.
This bond was offered at 99.963 in March 2025.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 6.073%
Current Yield at TC: 6.027%
F. Bought 2 Duke Energy Indiana 5.25% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 3/1/34 at a Total Cost of 99.825:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Duke Energy Corp. (DUK)
DUK 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 Duke Energy Indiana quarterly results can be found at p. 34.
Duke Energy Indiana 2024 Results:
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| Page 111 |
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Aa3/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.274%
Current Yield at TC: 5.259%
4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $15,000 in principal amount
I will be buying 10K in the 6 month T Bill at next Monday's auction.
All of the purchases were made in my Schwab account using funds in my sweep account that pays .05%.
A. Bought 5 at the 5/27/25 Auction:
91 Day Treasury Bill
Matures on 8/28/25
Interest: $53.78
Investment Rate: 4.361%
B. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 5/29/25 Auction:
56 Day Bill
Matures on 7/29/25
Interest: $65.72
Investment Rate: 4.312%
5. Treasury Notes at Auction:
A. Bought 1 at the 5/27/25 Auction:
2 Year Treasury Note
Matures on 5/31/27
Coupon: 3.875%
Original Issue Discount (OID): $1.3, treated as interest income
Yield with OID: 3.955%
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I published a YouTube video earlier today discussing in more detail why Trump's tariff war, and the chaos resulting therefrom, will continue notwithstanding the 3 judge panel decision.
ReplyDeleteIn another development today, the Supreme Court will allow Trump to end the Biden era program called CHNV that gave temporary legal status to over 500,000 immigrants from Cuba, Haiti, Venezuela and Nicaragua.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-supreme-court-humanitarian-parole-cubans-nicaraguans-haitians-venezuelans/
A federal district court judge, Indira Talwani, had stayed the mass revocation issued by Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem and required individual revocations only. The appellate court allowed the stay to remain and the Supreme Court lifted the stay which allows for deportation, or at least that is my understanding without delving into the legal issues.
Given the slow process of deporting the vast number of undocumented immigrants that never had any legal status to live and work in the U.S., I doubt that this order will have much of an immediate impact but there will likely be targeted deportations of immigrants from Haiti and Venezuela in particular, more theater and publicity stunts than material numbers, that previously had at least temporary legal status.
Over a longer period, Trump is deporting people that are consumers who pay sales taxes to local governments and contribute as consumers to U.S. GDP growth. Many of those deported are employed in jobs that Americans do not want. While many positions may be filled with U.S. citizens at higher costs to employers, many jobs will be difficult or impossible to fill. The overall economic impact from deportations on the scale envisioned by Trump will be a negative for the economy and will become in a year or so a major headwind when the deportations start to exceed 1 million consumers.
I published a YouTube video earlier today that discusses how the GOP tax bill, recently passed in the House, may impact my investment decisions going forward. I also discussed briefly Trump's comment that he will increase steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% from 25%.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZaKwSXVFJ4
For common stock purchase decisions, the main provision is the extension of the Section 199A deduction and adding BDC dividends to that deduction, applied to that part of the dividend sourced from net interest income. The deduction amount is increased to 23% from 20%. I own both BDC and equity REIT stocks.
A potential negative is the revenge tax (section 899). The House republicans have given Trump in this bill the power to repeal U.S. tax treaties with foreign countries by imposing taxes in excess of the limits imposed by those treaties. He will abuse this authority, as he has with the limited authority granted to him in national emergencies on the tariff issue, and the result will be a new tax war in addition to the ongoing tariff war.
If foreign institutions, governments, companies and individuals have to pay more in U.S. taxes, those foreign countries will retaliate and increase their taxes on foreign stock dividends paid to U.S. citizens investors.
U.S. government and corporate debt will become less attractive to foreign investors due to the higher tax rates. Interest rates will rise. One response would be to lower the duration of my bond portfolio and to focus more on short term securities.
And, while this means nothing to Trump and his party, renouncing trade treaties that have stood the test of time will be another blow to U.S. credibility and Trump has none. I doubt that any foreign leader trusts Trump to honor any agreement he signs (e.g. USMCA trade pact with Canada and Mexico signed by Trump in 2020 and violated by Trump in 2025) Some may have not yet realized that any concession made to secure a new trade deal will be taken and then Trump will be back for more soon after the ink dries on a trade deal, either by violating the terms or by attacking the foreign nation in some other manner (e.g. section 899)
Since Trump threatened to increase tariffs on all aluminum and steel imports to 50% from 25% late last week, the Stock Jocks have shrugged off this escalation as another TACO moment. I noted several analysts and market strategists claiming that Trump would not do it.
ReplyDeleteI assumed that he would, so I sold 100 shares of PRWCX at today's (6/3/25) closing price. I also engaged in other risk mitigation measures.
Trump has signed this afternoon an Executive Order doubling those tariffs to 50% with a possible carve out for the UK:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/06/adjusting-imports-of-aluminum-and-steel-into-the-united-states/
I kept selling stocks in small batches today in my Roth accounts. VXF and IWM. (Vang extended market and Small caps)
ReplyDeleteOn Monday or Friday I sold the rest of the VO I wanted to sell (Vang Mid-cap).
Also moved 4k in ROTH 401k from VXF to it's bond holding fund.
Still have quite a bit VXF to sell (100kish).
I'm about 5-10% from the highs I'd been at.
So no idea if I'm selling way to soon. Or if the stock buyer enthusiasm will keep the market up in spite of whatever happens.
Last week I sold all my TXN Texas Instruments. I missed the top - it was up a couple more % since.
ReplyDeleteI noticed it's payout ratio is 103%.
That seals the deal, not a stock I want to own right now.
I don't pay attention to pundit ratings. TXN is about 7.2/10 buy suggestion.
Land: I have rarely managed to sell a stock at its 52 week high before the bottom falls out.
DeleteI am only concerned about managing risks which requires some selling when I become concerned, as I am now, about investors being too optimistic about the future and complacent about obvious risks that could trigger a significant slide in stocks. It is not relevant when I have to make a decision on how to respond, based on an analysis of the then available factual information, that the major decline actually happen or is worse than I was forecasting which was the case for the Near Depression in 2008.
Informed decisions about future possible scenarios have to be made when the eventual outcomes are unknown. So in hindsight, good or bad outcomes are inevitable for each investment decision that I make because the future is not knowable.
Very helpful point to keep in mind about not getting to the top.
DeleteI've repeated to myself and steeled myself for the idea that it's assessment decision that I'm making that will be a lower entry point and I'll spot it. Also that the risk of a lower entry point is significant, not merely a casual timing effort.
The flip side is, if I miss gains, then I miss gains.
This is a big move, and goes against convention of buy and hold. So I keep an eye out for reassessing.
Today I sold 10K more VXF. IWM did poorly all day, but VXF was up higher than where I lost sold.
DeleteThat 63K left to sell vxf and 20k iwm. Plus keeping an eye out for an exit on a couple of individual stocks.
It's possible there'll be a rally from here. Since in the past the recovery periods have eventually made it above the old highs. That's why I haven't sold more quickly. On the other hand at what point will our stable and reliable leader, do something that scares the pa-Jeepers out of everybody?
I've been to a couple of these small vigils like in Colorado. We try to be careful, but how do you protect against everything?
ReplyDeleteLand: We live in a violent world inhabited by tens of millions of psychopaths willing to murder or harm others, anywhere at anytime. There is almost nothing that can be done to prevent violent acts like the one in Colorado.
DeleteSome may make this argument. If someone was carrying a gun and was nearby, the perp Mohamed Sabry Soliman could have been shot before throwing the fire bombs, but that would have required the good samaritan to see the danger, quickly recognize the threat and then decide how to respond to it, which would lean more to a miracle if successful than a probable outcome.
There is also a danger that a civilian with a gun who is under stress would have missed and/or hit bystanders.
I recall watching an experiment several years ago where students in a classroom with tiered seating were given pistols that used a laser beam and were told that something would happen in the class that would require them to use their weapons. Later a student entered the room with a laser weapon, shot the professor with the pistol and then aimed it at a student in the classroom. Some students were told to panic and spread out in all directions. The end result was that other students were hit with the laser beams as they fled and nobody hit the perp. It takes a trained person who does not panic to make the shot in a chaotic crowded situation.
I certainly don't think carryng is the answer. Interesting about that experiment. Doesn't surprise me. I can't imagine while terrified, holding my hands steady enough to aim at anything more than 2 ft in front of me.
DeleteI once got together with a firing instructor at the FBI (a friend). We went to a firing range. My goal was to hold and use a gun, so that if I'm ever in a situation with one pointed at me, I'll have at least a little more familiarity than if I didn't do this.
In self-defense classes for women, we're taught to turn around and run. Zig-zag if you can. Because It's exceedingly hard to shoot a running target. First we're told to throw something near the gun holder, so that they're inclined to go after it instead of you. Also statistically if you have a gun and are raped, it's more likely to be used on you than you're going to get a chance to use it.
Anti-Jew hate has escalated. Just before the museum murders, and this, there was a general thought going around that something had shifted to the more outrageous.
I'd like to see general media stop posting false stuff about Israel. There's always going to be military and policy errors, but there's too much that's outright false. Maybe also support the Gazans who are protesting against Hamas. You'd think they deserve to have a voice.
Friends who wear a Jewish star are telling me they're getting random nasty comments at them, while shopping or out in public.
It's all so complicated. But
it never ends with Jews. We're just canaries in the coal mine.
Sometimes things shift back into normal range.
I published a video discussing today's economic reports, which were negative, and were ignored for most of the day by stock investors while bond investors recognized data consistent with a slowdown in the economy.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14RDdVcky60&t=321s
$5,000 reduction is big for you.
ReplyDeleteI've been trying to remember in 2020, there was a crash, but there wasn't an unstable Vix trigger event?
If there had been then The model would anticipate a catastrophic event, which never happened.
Land: Most of the proceeds came from sell 100 PRWCX at $35.84 and 20+ UL at $63.46. I still own 753+ PRWCX shares. I realized a gain of $1,624.69 on the PRWCX 100 share lot and $376.56 on the 20+ UL shares. I also continued to pare ENB and KMI.
DeleteAll of those securities were sold at prices higher than their respective 2/19/25 closes.
I declared a TE in my 3/7/20 Post:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/03/axprica-bhb-btz-fnb-ivz-ppl-pplprcca-t.html
I will check the data tomorrow on when that resolved into a Stable Vix Pattern.
I found a reference in my 3/14/20 and 4/11/2020 posts that I had been buying stocks into the volatility spike.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/03/fhn-ftsprm-jri-oxy-pbct-pfxf-rnwca-scm.html
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/04/bdnchn-fhn-gdo-good-maptx-mcdfx-mspra.html
This is standard for me.
For now, volatility is low with VIX closes under 20 for 7 consecutive days. It may take more cold water thrown on the Blue Sky scenario that everything will work out okay, more hopium IMO than an assessment based on what is known now, including more retaliatory tariffs from foreign nations and a lack of progress in ongoing trade negotiations by the early July Trump deadlines followed by our Dear Leader imposing draconian tariffs such as the 50% tax threatened recently on EU exports.
A blowup in republican support for the Big Beautiful Bill and/or a failure to extend the debt limit would also terminate the equanimity that now pervades the Stock Jocks. I simply can not share that feeling based on my assessments.
Other possible catalysts could include a rise in inflation, poor treasury auctions resulting from foreign governments boycotting , a downturn in revenues in important industry sectors like automobile sales (possible collapse on the horizon close to the new model year launches), and the BLS jobs data turning negative with downward revisions in the prior two months when and if that happens.
Land: I drew a blank last night on what happened after I declared a TE in early March 2020.
DeleteThis is an example of Trigger Event leading quickly into a Catastrophic Event with no Recovery Period in between. That is not the usual pattern and is not what has happened this year or in the past. The pandemic is a one off event.
VIX Closes
Apr 2, 2020 50.91
Apr 1, 2020 57.06
Mar 31, 2020 53.54
Mar 30, 2020 57.08
Mar 27, 2020 65.54
Mar 26, 2020 61.00
Mar 25, 2020 63.95
Mar 24, 2020 61.67
Mar 23, 2020 61.59
Mar 20, 2020 66.04
Mar 19, 2020 72.00
Mar 18, 2020 76.45
Mar 17, 2020 75.91
Mar 16, 202 82.69
Mar 13, 2020 57.83
Mar 12, 2020 75.47
Mar 11, 2020 53.90
Mar 10, 2020 47.30
Mar 9, 2020 54.46
Mar 6, 2020 41.94
Mar 5, 2020 39.62
Mar 4, 2020 31.99
Mar 3, 2020 36.82
Mar 2, 2020 33.42
Feb 28, 2020 40.11
Feb 27, 2020 39.16
Feb 26, 2020 27.56
Feb 25, 2020 27.85
Feb 24, 2020 25.03
Feb 21, 2020 17.08
Feb 20, 2020 15.56
Feb 19, 2020 14.38
The high volatility numbers continued throughout 2020 but were moving close to 20 by year end.
A recovery period finally started in October 2021 with 32 consecutive closes below 20 that ended with the UVP ending that period on 11/26/21 with a close at 28.62, up from the prior close at 18.58. There was another Recovery Period starting in December 2021 that ended in January 2022. The Stable Vix Pattern only started to form on 3/28/2023 which was terminated by the TE in April 2025.
Thank you for looking all this up.
DeleteThe cause of this UVP with COVID, was different than the usual triggers. So it makes sense that the pattern after that would be different than usual.
The current cause of UVP is odd policies. It's not an underlying economic problem developing. But a crash course dive into unusual economic chaos's. So I wonder if the pattern will hold again this time?
I'm going to have to look at this some more.
I bought in November 23, so after the stable Vix pattern formed in February but by quite a bit after, and the rally started after that.
Usually the better point to buy is before or as the staple Vix pattern is forming, not 3/4s of a year later.
Today looks like it's going to rally. No idea why. Musk & Trump in a childish fight doesn't seem like a good economic move.
Land: As to timing buys, I start with buying into the VIX spike. In an old post, I suggested considering buying during an Unstable Vix Pattern, prior to the formation of the Stable Vix Pattern, when the S & P 500 crossed above its 200 day SMA line.
DeleteIf a SVP is going to form, the first indicator would probably be closes above that 200 day SMA line. As I recall that first happened in June 2009 after the August 2007 Trigger Event, as an example. The S&P 500 hit its bottom during that bear market at 666 in March 2009.
The S&P 500 had multiple closes below 4,000 in February-March 2023. I do not remember when it crossed above its 200 day SMA line but it would have been several months prior to the SVP formation.
The VIX Model was created based on historical patterns. One of those patterns were temporary movements below 20 that soon escalated into another spike accompanied by even more stock losses. So a safety valve was built into the model requiring 3 months of movement below 20 before a SVP is created provided there was not spike into the high 20s but simply a few closes above 20 that were excluded from the day count.
For now, volatility is low and the VIX is moving below 20. Potential serious problems for the economy are not being factored into stock prices and may not be until the negative impacts are undeniable. The unemployment report released earlier today feeds into the optimism rather than restrains it, even though the report shows a 139,000 increase in jobs, far lower than average monthly number last year and the prior two months were revised down by 95,000 fewer jobs. Job gains in April were reduced by 30,000 to 147,000 and employment growth in March was slashed by 65,000 to 120,000.
Also, the federal government layoffs are not counted for as long as the employee is paid for not working as part of a buyout arrangement.
Hum, just a few possible reasons...!
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling the big beautiful bill with its assistance for big business, is what's driving the current upbeat expectations. I don't see how the bills going to pass in It's current house format.
Land: Whatever changes are made by the Senate will have to be worked out in a conference between the House and Senate. Then both the Senate and House have to vote again on the version worked out in conference.
Deletehttps://www.usa.gov/how-laws-are-made
Given the narrow passage of the BBB by one vote (215-214), any change made in the Senate, accepted in the joint committee, will require another vote in the House and that may fail based on renewed opposition by some "Freedom" Caucus members who have since expressed regret for voting in favor after receiving pressure from Trump. The House bill also has a $4 trillion bump in the debt limit ceiling, something that republicans do not support when a Democrat President proposes a far smaller increase. Hypocrisy must be in their DNA given its near universal presence.
The only certain way for passage is for the Senate to vote in favor of the House bill with no changes. Once changes are made, some uncertainty will be created on whether the bill including the debt limit increase will pass again in the House.
I suspect that the CBO is substantially underestimating how the BBB will increase federal deficits over the next 10 years, partly due to the rise in interest rates to service the burgeoning debt. Interest expense on the federal government's debt will surpass $1 trillion annually next year. The underlying premise that republicans use to justify tax cuts is that they pay for themselves which does not actually happen. And even if there is twenty more years proving that point, they will still make the claim in 2045.
The republicans have found a way to raise federal revenue without having to increase rich people's taxes. Their tariff taxes will be paid by the 40% or so of the U.S. households who do not pay federal income taxes. They will deny that any consumer actually pays that tax and will continue making that claim no matter how much proof is offered that it is demonstrably false.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/06/enb-eprprc-ide-kmi-nhpap-pltk-prwcx.html
I have been more active in the stock market that I thought that I would be a few months ago, which is why I am back to publishing weekly posts.
I may move back into my bunker soon and wait for incoming. I am finding it difficult both to lower my already low stock allocation and to buy after the stock rally off the early April low notwithstanding troubling data on the economy.
Today the stock is rallying based on accepting Trump's claim that his call with Xi went "very good", while China made no comment. After ten years of comparing facts with Trump's representations, I will not accept anything that he says as true unless I have clear and convincing effort that he has made what would be a rare accurate statement. The more probable reason for Trump's characterization is that he wants to manipulate stock investors with false information and narratives, but maybe he is making the rare accurate statement.
I have a cold that's on its third week of coming and going. So I wanted to do a COVID test. Mine are expired, but a Google said the government still issuing them. So I go to that page which links to the government White House page. Unreal. Our White House is posting disinformation. And harassment of a single individual.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.whitehouse.gov/lab-leak-true-origins-of-covid-19/
This wasn't a page I went searching for separately from finding a kit. This was where getting a kit leads you too.
ReplyDelete