AGR, AXPRA:CA, CCNE, CVE, ETR, FITB, HOLX, IMGN, KMB, MRK, PAVE, PEAK, REYN, STWD, TD, UBSI, UL

Economy: 

Fed Chairman Powell says economic reopening could cause inflation to pick up temporarily That was an obvious observation considering that the $1.9T stimulus would arrive as the economy is picking up without additional stimulus. 

The Bond Ghouls are currently predicting an average annual CPI over the next 10 years of 2.22%, which I view as benign for stocks.   

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate-St. Louis Fed

While the trend is up, the rise is due to recovering from the waterfall decline starting in February 2020 which is normal for a recession's onset.   

Jobs report February 2021: Growth surges on hiring jump in hospitality; BLS Employment Situation Summary for February 2021 (378K job increase vs 210K consensus estimate; average work week declined by .3 of hour to 34.6 hours; average hourly earnings increased by 7 cents; prior two months revised higher by 38K) The U-6 rate remained unchanged at 11.1%.Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization 

Why the market is worried about Powell's stance on inflation

ADP: Private payrolls growth well short of expectations for February (+117k vs. consensus at 225K)

Martin Marietta Materials CEO is bullish as Biden weighs roads spending  

New initial claims for unemployment for the W/E 2/27/20 were reported at 745,000. 

Covid stimulus update: Democrats reach deal on unemployment aid That is a deal among themselves. I doubt that a single republican in either the House or the Senate will vote for the final version. They are on board for stimulus packages only when there is a republican President. 

++++

Markets and Market Commentary: 

S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 3/5/21: 

TTM GAAP = 43.22

Estimated Forward 12 months non-GAAP = 22.15

Dividend Yield = 1.51%

Sourced: P/E & Yields

Goldman Sachs says it’s the beginning of a structural bull market in commodities - MarketWatch

Cramer says investors are in denial about stocks: 'The sell-off is real'

NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT Announces Successful Completion of Previously Announced Public Equity Offering and Partial Exercise of Over-Allotment Option for Gross Proceeds of $215,303,000; Northwest Healthcare Properties REIT Provides Update on Recent Operational, Transactional and Corporate Initiatives; NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Announces February 2021 Distribution I currently own 1000 "units". 

Earnings reports from owned stocks: 

Consolidated Edison (ED) Reports 2020 Earnings (adjusted earnings at $253M or $.75 per share in line with consensus, down from $.89 in the 2019 4th quarter; adjusted E.P.S. for 2020 at $4.18 compared to $4.38 for 2019; guides adjusted E.P.S. for 2021 to $4.15 to $4.35; adjusted earnings in 2020 exclude impairment charge related to Con Edison's investment in Mountain Valley Pipeline and adjusted earnings for both 2019 and 2020 exclude "the effects of HLBV accounting for tax equity investments in certain renewable electric production projects of the Clean Energy Businesses and the net mark-to-market effects of the Clean Energy Businesses." ) 

Dream Industrial REIT (DIR.UN:CA) Reports Strong Q4 2020 Results and Addition of New Top 10 Tenant (FFO per diluted share = C$.19, a 3% increase "when compared to Q4 2019, despite a 12% increase in total number of units"; net asset value per unit increased by 6.7% Y-O-Y to C$12.55; occupancy rate year end at 94.7%; properties = 177; "During the quarter, the Trust completed five acquisitions in Europe totalling approximately $112 million. For the full year, the Trust completed $623 million of acquisitions, and thus far in 2021, has closed, is under contract or in exclusivity on $355 million of assets in the U.S., Germany, the Netherlands, and its target Canadian markets") 

Dropbox (DBX) Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2020 Results (took a $398.2M impairment charge to real estate assets estate resulting in a E.P.S. loss of $.84; 4th quarter revenue at $504.1M, up 13%; paying users at 15.48M, up 14.31M in the year ago quarter; non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.28 up from $.16 in the 2019 4th quarter; consensus at $.24 non-GAAP; cash and cash equivalents at $1.121B; announced a stock repurchase program of up to $1B; Dropbox, Inc. Announces $1.135 Billion Convertible Notes Offering)

Entergy (ETR) Reports 2020 Financial Results, Initiates 2021 Earnings Guidance (Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.71 vs. $.665 consensus according to Fidelity; GAAP E.P.S. at $1.93)

Exelon (EXC) Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results and Initiates 2021 Financial Outlook (adjusted E.P.S. at $.76; consensus at $.687 according to Fidelity; plans "to separate its utilities business, comprised of the company’s six regulated electric and gas utilities, and Generation, its competitive power generation and customer-facing energy businesses, creating two publicly traded companies.")

Global Net Lease (GNL) Reports Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2020 Results (AFFO per share = $.45; "99.7% leased with a remaining weighted-average lease term of 8.5 years"; "Collected 99% of fourth quarter cash rents")

ONEOK (OKE) Announces 11% Year-Over-Year Increase in Fourth Quarter 2020 Operating Income (4th quarter GAAP net income of  $308M or  $.69 per share; distributable cash flow at $517.8M which is $102M in excess of dividend distribution during the quarter; 2021 guidance: Midpoint GAAP E.P.S. at $2.74 with a midpoint EBITDA increase of 12% to $3.05B)

Owl Rock Capital Corp.(ORCC) Reports Full Year Results and Fourth Quarter Net Investment Income Per Share of $0.29 and NAV Per Share of $14.74 (NII per share at $.29; NAV per share increased to $14.79 from $14.67 as of 9/30/20; Board declared quarterly dividend of $.31 per share; "based on fair value, our portfolio consisted of 77.5% first lien senior secured debt investments, 18.5% second lien senior secured debt investments, 0.5% unsecured notes, 1.0% investment funds and vehicles, and 2.5% equity investments . . . one investment with an aggregate fair value of $32.6 million was on non-accrual status, representing 0.3% of the total fair value of the portfolio.")   

Solar Senior Capital Ltd. (SUNS) Announces Year Ended December 31, 2020 Financial Results (NII per share of $.30; NAV per share = $15.91, up from $15.79 as of 9/30/20; Board declares regular monthly dividend of $.10 per share; "100% of Solar Senior’s portfolio was performing")

Solar Capital Ltd. (SLRC) Announces Quarter and Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2020 Financial Results (NII per share = $.35; NAV Per share = $20.16; Board declared regular quarterly dividend of $.41 per share; 100% of portfolio performing)

TCG BDC, Inc. (CGBD) Announces Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results and Declares First Quarter 2021 Regular Dividend of $0.32 Per Common Share and Supplemental Dividend of $0.05 per Common Share (NII per share = $.38; net asset value per share at $15.39, up from $15.01 as of 9/30/20; repurchased 1.0 million shares of the Company's common stock at an average cost of $10.85 per share "resulting in accretion to net assets per share of $0.08".)

Schwab Taxable-Interest and Preferred Stock Dividend Payments on 3/1/21: 

SU $1K Corporate Bond: 3.45% Virginia Electric (10 bonds, rated A2, BBB+)

Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bonds ($25 Par Values): 10 shares Entergy Louisiana (ELC) and 10 shares Entergy Arkansas (EAI); both pay quarterly and rated A/A2.  

Tennessee Municipal Bonds: 3% Knoxville Water (rated AAA, Aa1) and 4% Harpeth Valley Utility District (rated AA+) -Both 5 bond lots-1K par value per bond.

$25 Par Value Exchange Trade SU Bonds: 5 shares TANNL (junk); 20 shares GMTA (BBB/Baa2). Both make quarterly interest payments; 

Issuer Optional Redemption SU $25 par value: EBAYL (5 Shares) with a realized gain of $11.33: 

Canadian Reset Equity Preferred: EBGEF (140 shares, US$25 par value, priced in USDs and traded on the U.S. Grey Market).

Equity Preferred $25 Par Value: CCNEP  (5 shares)

The 2 preferred stocks pay quarterly. 

++++

America's authoritarian leaning party is gearing up to restrict voting rights and to make it harder for people who do not vote the right way to cast ballots. Stolen-Election Myth Fuels G.O.P. Push to Change Voting Laws - The New York Times

How Pro-Trump Forces Pushed a Lie About Antifa at the Capitol Riot - The New York Times Lying all the time is just normal. 

Fact checking Trump's CPAC speech 

FactChecking Trump's CPAC Speech - FactCheck.org Trump is continuing to lie about almost everything. No one in public life comes anywhere close to his dishonesty. 

Trump unleashes new threat to American democracy at CPAC 

Inspector General’s Report Cites Elaine Chao for Using Office to Help Family - The New York Times Ms. Chao, who is married to Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was Donald's Secretary of Transportation. The IG referred this matter to Trump's DOJ for possible criminal prosecution, but of course nothing was done.  

Texas Governor Abbott (R) blames Covid spread on immigrants, criticizes Biden's 'Neanderthal' comment I thought that Biden's comment was an insult to Neanderthals. Rethinking Neanderthals-Smithsonian Magazine

GOP Sen. Johnson (R-WIS) delays Covid relief bill by forcing all 628 pages be read out loud

GOP groups quiet as donor accused of running biggest tax fraud scheme ever

++++++

1. Reset Canadian Equity Preferred Stocks: 

My Canadian reset equity preferred stocks have been doing better as of late based on the interest rate uptrend and concerns about inflation. 

Generally, floating rate preferred stocks do better when interest rates are moving up in response to inflationary pressures.  

U.S. and Canadian preferred stock prices were hammered during the stock market collapse last Spring. That is to be expected. 

Prices were already been pressured to the downside for the Canadian resets due to investors becoming increasingly concerned that the coupons, when reset, would decline. 

The reset preferred stocks that float at a spread to the the 3 month Canadian treasury bill were hit the hardest as that benchmark rate plummeted closer to zero. 

The equity preferred stock discussed below, AXPRA, floats at a spread to the five year Canadian bond with the next 5 year reset scheduled in September 2022. Since the price has improved significantly over the past several weeks, and I do anticipate the five year Canadian bond to improve in yield substantially from current levels by then, I decided to harvest the profit. 

I am more comfortable holding the preferred stocks that reset in 2024, even though their prices have recovered substantially as well. An example is FTSPRM:CA which resets in 2024. Item # 2.B. Bought 50 FTSPRM:CA at C$12.4 (5/23/20 Post) I also discussed in that post buying two other preferred stocks, PWTPRT and EBGEF,  that reset in 2024.  Items # 2.A. and 2.C. PWTPRT was bought at C$11.1 and EBGEF at US$13.1 (a Grey Market traded security) 

PWF-PT.TO 

EBGEF 

A. Sold 200 AXPRA at C$22.55: 

C$2 Interactive Broker's commission. 

Quote: AX-PA.TO 

Profit Snapshot: +C$681.50

Canadian Dollars to US Dollars 

The reportable tax profit will be calculated by the broker using the USD values when this security was bought and sold. 

Purchases Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added to AXPRA-Bought 50 at C$17.48  (11/21/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Added to AXPPRA-Bought 50 at C$12.99 (5/16/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Bought 50 AXPRA at C$23 (2/29/20 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 50 AXPRA at C$23 (1/18/20 Post)

Par Value: C$25 

Current coupon: 5.662% until next reset. 

Resets: Every 5 years at a 4.06% spread to the 5 year Canadian Bond yield. 

Canada 5 Year Government Bond Overview | MarketWatch

Last Reset: September 2017

Dividends: Paid in CADs quarterly and cumulative

A 15% Canadian withholding tax is applied. I am generally able to recover foreign dividend taxes as credits on my tax return.  (of course, no recovery is permitted when the security in held in a retirement account). Claiming Foreign Taxes: Credit or Deduction? | Charles Schwab; Should You Keep Foreign Stocks Out of Your IRA? | Morningstar

Last Ex Dividend: 12/30/20

Investment Category: I classify the Canadian resets with my U.S. equity preferred  floating rate stocks. Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities This category includes both current floating rate equity preferred stocks and fixed-to-floating rate preferred stocks that may currently be paying a fixed rate coupon. 

2. Small Ball: 

A. Started KMB--Bought 2 at $131; 1 at $128.98; 2 at $128.8: 

Quote: Kimberly-Clark Corp. 

Stock Information as of 3/5/21: 

Investment Categories: Bond Substitute/Dividend Growth

KMB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 3/5/21, consensus E.P.S. for 2021 was at $7.82; at $8.2 for 2022; and at  $8.54 for 2023. P/E at AC of $129.52 and 2021 E.P.S. estimate is 16.56 and at 15.17 using the 2023 consensus E.P.S.)

SEC Filings

Kimberly-Clark – Our Brands

Investors | Kimberly-Clark Corporation

5 Year Historical: 

2020 Annual Report at page 11 

Average Cost Per Share: $129.72 (5 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.14 per share ($4.56 annually), raised from $1.07 effective for the 2021 1st quarter payment. 

Dividend/Split History | Kimberly-Clark Corporation

Dividend History: 

Yield at AC = 3.52%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/4/21 (owned all as of)

KMB is a dividend aristocrat. Kimberly-Clark: Dividend Aristocrat-Sure Dividend 

5 Year Chart: 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release

GAAP E.P.S. $1.58

Adjusted E.P.S. $1.69, down from $1.68 in the 2019 4th quarter

4th Quarter Net Revenues: $4.8B, up 6% compared to the 2019 4th quarter with 5% organic growth. 

2020 Adjusted E.P.S. of $7.74 up from $6.89 in 2019

Board approved a 6.5% increase in the quarterly dividend 

Repurchased 1.7M shares in the 4th quarter quarter and 4.9M in 2020

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (1/22/21): 3 stars with a $124 FV

Argus (1/25/21): Hold, downgraded from buy. E.P.S. estimate for 2021 is $8.00 and $8.4 in 2022.  

S & P  (1/25/21): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $150. 

Other Recent Broker Reports (do not have access): These actions would be in response to the 2020 4th quarter earnings report and conference call. 

Goldman Sachs (1/26/21): Adjusts PT to $141 from $139 and keep neutral rating. 

Barclays (1/26/21): Keeps overweight rating and adjusts PT to $173 from $167  

Jefferies (1/26/21): Keeps buy rating and adjusts PT to $156 from $152.  

RBC (1/26/21): Keeps at neutral and adjusts PT to $147 from $152.  

Goal: 6% to 8% annual average total return with some trading.   

B. Added to UL-Bought 1 at $55.75; 1 at $54.91; 1 at $54.51; 2 at $54.29; 2 at $52.25: 

Quote:  Unilever PLC ADR

ADR Ratio: 1 to 1  

Results are reported in Euros.

All brands | Unilever global company website

Unilever tea business 'highly likely' to be split off via listing | Reuters (2/4/21)(includes the Lipton tea business)

For 2020, underlying sales grew 2%, with volume adding 1.6%. Product price increases were restrained and were probably below input price increases.  

Dividend History: 

Dividend will fluctuate based on currency conversion numbers. 

Last Ex Dividend: 2/25/21 at US$.5139 per share

Last Discussed: Item #3.B. Restarted UL-Bought 5 at  $57.58 (1/1/21 Post) 

Last Earnings Report (Period Ending 12/31/20): 

Adjusted 4th quarter E.P.S. in constant currency: €2.65 or US$3 using the average exchange rate. 

2020 Adjusted full year operating margin down 60 points to 18.5%  compared to 2019, viewed as a major negative by the Stock Jocks and compares unfavorably with competitors. 

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (2/4/21): 3 stars with a FV of US$61, wide moat 

Argus (2/23/21): Buy with a $66 PT, raised from $64 (US$3.20 estimate for 2021 and has a preliminary E.P.S. estimate of US$3.35 in 2022)

S & P (2/8/21) 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $60, trimmed target by $3 after lowering 2021 E.P.S. to €2.5 from €2.7. Introduces 2022 E.P.S. forecast at €2.65. Notes that full year underlying EBIT margin of 18.5% missed the consensus of 19%. 

UN (no longer traded) and UL Trading Profits = $3,544.77 

C. Pared STWD in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $20.44: 

Quote: Starwood Property Trust Inc.  (STWD)

SEC Filings

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. Profile | Reuters

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. Key Developments | Reuters

2020 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 19 and ends at page 60) 

The largest STWD position is in my Fidelity taxable account which I also pared (47+ shares with an AC of $16.46 ROC adj., see Item # 1.D. below) I am reinvesting the dividend in that account. 

History Vanguard Taxable Account Before Pare: The second snapshot shows just how fast the price dropped in March between 3/17 to 3/23. My last purchase in this account was 1 share bought at $13.95 on 10/30/20. I am not reinvesting the dividend in this account. 

Snapshots prior to ROC adjustment for 2020 dividends: 

Using FIFO accounting, I sold the first lot bought on 3/11/20. 

The tax cost basis for this ten share lot has been reduced by ROC since my purchase at $20.2, though that adjustment had not yet been made when I sold the shares. 

Original Purchase Price 10 Shares

ROC Adjustment  = $.2355 per share (3 dividends):

Starwood Property Trust Announces Tax Reporting Information

Profit Based on Original Cost of $20.2 =  $2.4 

Goal: Harvest dividends + any realized gain prior to ROC adjustments to tax cost basis. Successful for this lot. 

This is obviously a very small scale example of this strategy, but the goal would apply irrespective of the amount invested. 

Average Cost Before Pare = $16.59 (without ROC adj.)

Average Cost After Pare (13 shares) = $13.82 (without ROC adj.; my calculation) ROC adjustments for 2021 dividend payments will reduce that cost basis further. The last dividend went ex on 12/15/20, and was paid on 1/15/2 and will be included in the 2021 adjustments. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.48 per share ($1.92 annually)

Yield at New AC = 13.89%. 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.H. Added STWD in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 2 STWD at $17.18; 2 at $16.91; 1 at $15.24, 1 at $10.36; 1 at $9.3; 1 at $8.74; 1 at $12.45 ( 4/18/20 Post)Item # 1.C. Added to STWD in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 1 at $15.66, 1 at $15.12, 1 at $14.82; 1 at $13.74 (7/25/20 Post); Item # 2.D. Added to STWD in Fidelity Taxable-Bought 1 at $14.29 (12/5/20 Post)(discussed 3rd quarter report in this post, see SEC Filed Press Release)  

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.A. Sold 10 STWD at $25.96  (2/16/2020 Post)

5 Year Chart: 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

Distributable Earnings at $.50 per share

Consensus at $.49

D. Pared STWD in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $20.95: 

In this account, I had to sell above the original cost of $20.905 which I accomplished with a GTC order: 

Original Purchase Price

Profit with ROC adjustments = $3.54

Profit Based on Original Cost = $.44

New Average Cost per share this account: $16.46

Snapshot Intraday on 2/9/21 after pare

Yield at AC =  11.66% 

I have higher cost lots bought with dividends in this account, which I will clear out when and if I can profitably sell them. I sold the highest original cost lot that was not purchased with dividends.  

E. Eliminated UBSI in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $35.35: 

Quote: United Bankshares Inc.

UBSI Analyst Estimates

UBSI SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report (properties information at pages 30-31) 

Investment Strategy: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshot: +$68.3

Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # Restarted UBSI-Bought 1 at $26.6; 1 at $26.34; 3 at $25.95; 5 at $25.54; 2 at $24.6; 1 at $24.32; 2 at $24.04; 1 at $23.68; 1 at $22.21; 1 at $21.81; 1 at $21.3; 2 at $20.9  (9/26/20 Post)

I still own shares in my Fidelity taxable account. 

Available for sale securities as of 12/31/20: 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share

Last Ex-Dividend:  3/11/21

Last Earnings Report (Q /E 12/30/20): 

UBSI Profits to Date: $1,347.81

The largest gain was realized in 2015. Item # 1 Sold 50 UBSI at $41.58-Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 8/7/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $1,235.01)

F. Started HOLX -Bought 1 at $77.3; 1 at $75.4; 1 at $71.31; 1 at $69.7 :

Quote: Hologic Inc. 

Stock Information as of 3/5/21: 

Average Cost Per Share: $73.43 (4 shares)

Closing Price 3/5/21: HOLX $72.35 +$1.94 +2.76% 

Website: Hologic: Breakthrough Diagnostic & Medical Imaging Solutions

The recent surge in revenues and earnings is attributable to the "molecular diagnostics" business which includes "the Company’s two SARS-CoV-2 assays that run on the fully automated Panther® and Panther Fusion® systems."

"The Panther Fusion molecular diagnostic assays are performed on the Panther Fusion system and utilize polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, technology to amplify target nucleic acid sequences for easier detection. Our Panther Fusion assay portfolio includes diagnostic tests for a range of acute respiratory infections (influenza A virus, influenza B virus, respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus and parainfluenza), as well as a test for the detection of Group B Streptococcus, or GBS. In addition, in response to the COVID-19 global pandemic, in 2020 we developed and launched the Panther Fusion SARS-CoV-2 assay for the detection of SARS-CoV-2. The Panther Fusion SARS-CoV-2 assay was granted Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA in March 2020." 10-K for the F/Y Ending in September 2020 at page 7 

Other businesses are described in that document at pp. 6-10.

I would describe HOLX as a medical diagnostics company.  

As demand for COVID testing declines, the company will face negative Y-O-Y declines in revenues and earnings.

HOLX uses a fiscal year that ends in September. 

HOLX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

HOLX SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 12/26/20 

Dividend: None

Earnings are being used to grow the business. 

5 Year Chart: 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/26/20): SEC Filed Press Release This is the first 2021 fiscal quarter. 

GAAP E.P.S. of $2.5, up $1.43

Non-GAAP E.P.S. of $2.86, up from $.61  

"cash flow from operations was $650.0 million in the quarter. Based on this strong cash flow, the Company announced the Biotheranostics and SOMATEX acquisitions, repaid $250 million of debt under its revolving credit facility, and repurchased 1.5 million shares of its common stock for $101 million."

Revenue Details: 

2nd 2021 Fiscal Quarter Guidance: 

Other Recent News: The Covid related surge in profits is being used in part to acquire diagnostic companies. The issue is whether these purchases will produce a reasonable return on invested capital or end of being money incinerators.  I have no opinion on that issue. 

Hologic Acquires European Molecular Diagnostic Company Diagenode for Approximately $159 Million (3/1/21); 

Hologic Completes Acquisition of Biotheranostics for about $230M, Enabling Entry into Growing Oncology Market (2/22/21)-Hologic to Acquire Biotheranostics, Leader in Molecular Tests for Breast and Metastatic Cancers, for Approximately $230 Million (1/5/21);

Hologic to Acquire SOMATEX, Leader in Biopsy Site Markers and Localization Technologies, for $64 Million (1/4/21)-Hologic Buys SOMATEX, Expanding Continuum of Care

This Covid Testing Stock Is Cheap. Why It’s Time to Buy Hologic.- Barron's (2/12/21)

G. Eliminated PEAK-Sold 15 at $31.08: 

Quote: Healthpeak Properties Inc

PEAK SEC Filings

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Profit: +$38.01

Item # 3.C. Started PEAK-Bought 5 at $28.95; 5 at 28.5; 5 at $28.2 (1/30/2021 Post) 

PEAK slashed its quarterly dividend from $.37 to $.3 per share. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/20 

When the company was called HCP, it had cut the quarterly rate from $.524 to $.37 effective for the 2016 4th quarter. 

I discussed this elimination in a 2/11/21 comment and have nothing further to add here. 

H. Eliminated IMGN-Sold 15 at $10.5: 

Quote: Immunogen Inc.

Closing Price 3/5/21: IMGN +$8.95 +0.59 +7.06% 

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

IMGN SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: +$71.75

I explained why I sold this Lotto in a 2/16/21 comment.  

Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Restarted IMGN-Bought 10 at $5.85 and 5 at $5.45  (12/12/20 Post) 

Last "Earnings" Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release IMGN reported a profit of $.16 per diluted share. Investors responded enthusiastically to this better then expected result without looking at the fine print. The stock closed at $8.08 on 2/11 and at $10.53 the next day. IMGN Historical Prices 

IMGN achieved a measure of success when it licensed to Roche its "maytansinoid ADC technology" that led to its HER2-targeting ADC compound, Kadcyla which has been approved for marketing in the U.S., Europe, Japan and other countries. The company sold its future royalty stream arising from sales of Kadcyla in two transactions receiving $265.2M. Page 18 10-Q That money is gone. 

For Roche's global sales of Kadcyla in the 4th quarter, IMGN recognized $23.4M in royalty payments which is a non-cash income item created by an accounting convention.   

The other "income" was also created by an accounting convention related to the recognition of an upfront licensing fee paid by Jazz Pharmaceuticals several years ago. That money is gone. 

There was no cash income generated in the 2020 4th quarter, but just more cash burn and a real loss.  

The number of shares outstanding is in a growth phase. "During the quarter ended December 31, 2020, the Company sold approximately 20 million shares of its common stock through its At-the-Market (ATM) facility, generating gross proceeds to the Company of approximately $100 million. In January 2021, the Company sold an additional 4.5 million shares of its common stock through its ATM facility, generating additional gross proceeds of approximately $35 million." IMGN will also raise cash through stock offerings with the last one occurring in January 2020. Prospectus 

The money is being burned to advance IMGN's portfolio in clinical trials. It remains to be seen whether those trials will be successful. Our Pipeline | ImmunoGen for ADC Technology-focused Cancer Treatment

Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 3 Sold 50 IMGN at $9.58 (2/12/2018 Post)(profit snapshot = $383.48); Item # 3.C. Sold 100 IMGN at $3.55 (3/8/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $77.48)  

IMGN Realized Gains to Date = $532.71 

For this stock, my brain has been trained to sell into price pops. 

I. Pared FITB-Sold 5 at $33.48-highest cost lots: 

Quote: Fifth Third Bancorp

FITB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

FITB SEC Filings

Closing Price 3/5/21: FITB $36.77 +$1.21 +3.40% 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshot: +$48.06 (2/16/21 sell only)

Average Cost Before Pare = $18.87

Average Cost After Pare =  $17.3

Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually)

Yield at $17.3: 6.24%

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.F. Pared FITB in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 16 at $30.14; 4 at $32.21-highest cost lots (1/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.49). I discussed the 2020 4th quarter earnings report in that post. 

FITB Realized Gains to Date: $1,052.78

I started to keep profit snapshots for regional banks in 2009. I rarely bought stocks in that sector before then.   

J. Eliminated CCNE-Sold 10 at $23.63: 

Quote: CNB Financial Corp. (CCNE)

CCNE SEC Filings

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshot: $92.8 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.E. Restarted CCNE-Bought 5 at $15.25; 5 at $14.95; 5 at $13.75 (6/20/20 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.17 per share 

CNB Financial Announces Quarterly Dividend for Common Stock 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.B. and 2.C. (12/25/20 Post) 

CCNE Realized Gains to Date: $1,178.20

Most of the profit was generated by this sell: Item # 3.A. Eliminated Remaining CCNE-Sold 50 at $23.76 (2/17/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $618.1)

I still own an equity preferred stock issued by this bank holding company. CNB Financial Corp. 7.125% Preferred Series A (CCNEP) 

I no longer have a position in the common shares. 

K. Bought 10 CVE at $6.93: 

Quote: Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) 

Closing Price 3/5/21: CVE $8.21 +$0.35 +4.45% 

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

Operations at Cenovus - Learn about Cenovus's oil sands, conventional oil, refining and transportation operations

CVE SEC Filings (foreign issuer)

CVE 2020 Annual Report 

CVE is a Canadian oil and gas company. It recently acquired Husky Energy at a distressed sale price. Cenovus closes transaction to combine with Husky I had managed to exit my common stock positions in Husky profitably before its price collapsed into the low single digits, but I did own 100 shares of a reset equity preferred stock issued by Husky (HSEPRC) which is now a CVE obligation. Item # 3.A. Added to HSEPRC-Bought 50 at C$16.15 (12/11/19 Post) and Item # 4.A. Bought 50 HSEPRC at C$16.57  (12/7/19 Post); CVE-PC.TO (par value C$25; current coupon at 4.636%; five year reset at a 3.125% spread to the 5 year Canadian government bond; last reset December 2019: Husky Energy Provides Series 3 Preferred Shares Conversion Privilege Notice, Series 3 and Series 4 Preferred Shares Dividend Rate Notice) I still own 100 CVEPRC. 

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

My gut informed me that CVE has recovery potential. That potential is not yet apparent from reported "earnings". 

Sourced:  SEC Filed Press Release 

I have no prior trades. 

L. Added 1 AGR at $44.6: 

Quote: Avangrid Inc.

Closing Price 3/5/21: AGR $46.08 +$0.62 +1.36% 

Investment Category: Bond Substitute

Purchases: Item # 3.N. Added to AGR-Bought 1 at $44.95 (12/19/20 Post); Item # 2.N. Bought 1 AGR at $45.95 (12/12/20 Post)(only prior substantive discussion)

AGR SEC Filings

AGR Investor Relations Website

Average cost per share this account:  $45.17 (3 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.44  per share ($1.72 annually)

Poor dividend growth. 

Yield at AC = 3.81%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/4/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20): AVANGRID Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Financial Results 

GAAP Net Income of $166M 

GAAP E.P.S. at $.54

Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.62

Consensus at $.57 according to Fidelity 

2020 GAAP Net Income = $581M or $1.88 per share

2020 Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $2.02 

Reconciliation GAAP and Non-GAAP: 

Reaffirmed 2021 E.P.S. at $2.15 to $2.35 and 6-8% annual growth through 2025. 

AGR is in the final stages of acquiring PNM Resources. 

PNM Shareholders Approve Proposed AVANGRID Merger (2/12/21); 

AVANGRID and PNM Resources Announce Merger Plans (10/21/20)

AGR's wind generation held up during the recent Texas deep freeze. AGR has about 1,250MW of wind generation in Texas and met all of its delivery obligations. 

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):  

Morningstar (2/24/21): 3 stars with a FV of $45 (notes that AGR's renewable unit installed 620MW of wind generation and 370MW of solar generation last year) 

S & P (2/24/21): Upgrades to buy (4 stars) with a $54 twelve month PT (notes AGR is a leader in the trend toward clean energy which is an accurate observation to make)

M. Added 1 ETR at $88.97; 1 at $87.25: 

Quote: Entergy Corp. (ETR)

Closing Price 3/5/21: ETR $89.13 +$1.54 +1.76% 

Investment Categories: Bond Substitute/Dividend Growth

ETR 2020 Annual Report 

ETR SEC Filings

ETR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Investor Relations

Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Started ETR as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $92.55 (2/6/21 Post) In the past, I have purchased first mortgage bonds issued by Entergy's operating subsidiaries. 

Since the yields on the $1K par value first mortgage bonds are no longer attractive for new purchases, I have started a small ball "buying program" in the common stock. 

For now, I am limiting my purchases to only 1 share and each subsequent purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain. That restriction is due to what I view as a currently unfavorable valuation and relatively low dividend yield which looks somewhat attractive now only because interest rates are abnormally low. 

The Placeholder status basically allows me to start a position that renders the stock price more visible to me. 

Average Cost Per Share: $89.59 (3 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.95 per share ($3.8 annually)

Yield at AC = 4.24%

Last Ex Dividend: 2/11/21 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.71 vs. $.665 consensus according to Fidelity; GAAP E.P.S. at $1.93

2021 Non-GAAP E.P.S. Guidance: $4.55 to $4.75, maintains 5% to 7% long term growth rate.

N. Pared TD-Sold 1 at $60.54:

Quotes: 

USD Priced:  Toronto-Dominion Bank  (U.S.: NYSE)
CAD Priced: Toronto-Dominion Bank  (Canada: Toronto) 

Closing Price 3/5/21: TD $62.82 +$0.89 +1.44% 

Investment Categories: Bond Substitute/Dividend Growth/Contrarian Value

CAD/USD Currency Chart 

SEC Filings

TD Analyst Estimates

TD Bank Group - Investor Relations

Credit Ratings

Profit Snapshot = $6.25 (2/19 only)

Average Cost after pare = $51.16 (40+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday 2/19/21 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.79 per share (C$3.16 annually)

TD Bank Group Declares Dividends

The dividend yield before taxes will depend on the CAD/USD conversion rate.  

The US dividend will be $.6314 according to the WSJ. 

Assuming that penny rate was paid for 4 quarters, the yield at a total cost of $51.16 would be about 4.94%.

Next Ex Dividend: 4/8/21

USD Dividend History: 

Dividend Reinvestment: Yes

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4 Bought 30 TD at $54.28 (4/10/19 Post) I subsequently averaged down in several small lot purchases which were not discussed here.  

Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 1/31/21): TD Bank Group Reports First Quarter 2021 Results

Comparison with year ago quarter: 

E.P.S. at C$1.77, up from C$1.61

Adjusted E.P.S. at C$1.83, up from C$1.66

Fidelity has the consensus at C$1.487

Adjusted net income was C$3,380 million, compared with C$3,072 million.

ROE and efficiency ratios are good. Dividend payout ratio was at 43.2% for the 3 months ending 1/31/21.

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (2/26/21): 3 stars with a FV of US$65, wide moat. Increased FV estimate to $65 from $61 in response to earnings report and better economic outlook due to pandemic fading). 

S & P (2/25/21): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $64 (lifted by $9, increases 2021 E.P.S. by US$.61 to US$5.02)

Last Eliminations: Item # 1 Eliminated TD-Sold 53+ Shares at $58.31 (3/19/18 Post)(profit snapshot +$910.82);

Item 4.A. Sold 54+ TD at $56.97  (11/4/17 Post)(profit snapshot +$718.78)-Dividend Growth And Large Cap Valuation Strategies: Bought Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

Last Pare: Item # 3.J. Sold 2 TD at $58.39 (1/31/21 Post) (profit snapshot = $6.99)

O. Added to REYN in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 4 at $27.5; 5 at $27.3: 

Quote: Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN)

Investment Categories: Bond Substitute/Contrarian Value/Possible Dividend growth

Brands | Reynolds Consumer Products

SEC Filings

REYN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 3/1/21, 2021 consensus E.P.S. at $2.01; 2022 at $2.11; 2023 at $2.21; P/E using $2.01 for 2021 and $28.64 AC = 14.29)

New Average Cost = $28.37 (25 shares)

Closing Price 3/5/21: REYN $27.97 +$0.54 +1.97% 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually)

Yield at AC = 3.24%

Last Ex Dividend: 2/22/21

Dividend Reinvestment: Yes at less than $32. 

I discussed REYN in my last post Item # 1.Q. Added to REYN-Bought 2 at $27.9; 2 at $27.67 (2/27/21 Post)  

I noticed since my last discussion that Credit Suisse started REYN with an outperform rating and a $34 PT. The CS report, dated 2/25/21, is available to Schwab customers. The target is based on 20 x. 2023 E.P.S. estimate of $2.14 discounted at 8%. Analyst notes that REYN's products are rated #1 or #2 in their categories. Free cash flow per share estimated at $2.11 in 2021. 

I discussed the 2020 4th quarter report in this post: Item # 1.J. Started REYN in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $29.95; 5 at $28.95; 2 at $28.58 (2/20/21 Post)

I am simply implementing a small ball "purchase program" in this account, averaging down with a few shares. 

P. Added to MRK-Bought 1 at $72.79: 

Quote: Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK)

SEC Filings

Pipeline - Merck.com

2020 Annual Report

I discussed starting a position in my last post. Item # 1.I. Restarted MRK-Bought 1 at $78.12, 1 at $75.9, 1 at $75.13; 2 at $74.5; 1 at $73.49 (2/27/21 Post) I am simply implementing a small ball "purchase program with this 1 share purchase. For MRK going forward, each subsequent purchase must be a the lowest price in the chain. 

Closing Price 3/5/21: MRK $73.13 +$0.96 +1.33% 

New Average Cost Per Share: $74.92 (7 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.65 per share  ($2.6 annually)

Yield at AC  = 3.47%

Next Ex Dividend: 3/12/21

Q. Started PAVE-Bought 8 Shares: 

Quote: Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF Overview 

Average cost per share = $22.38

Closing Price 3/5/21: PAVE +$23.44 +$0.67  +2.94% 

Sponsor's Website: U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF

Expense Ratio: .47%

Holdings: 101

Some Top Holdings as of 3/1/21: 

Maybe the Democrats will start to spend more on infrastructure. 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.