Dollar Value of Purchases Discussed in this Post:
Small Ball Common Stock Purchases: +$1,285.64
Corporate Bonds and Treasury Bill Purchases: +$17,000 in principal amount
Dollar Value of Sales Discussed in this Post:
Outflow Mutual Fund Reduction: $660.1 (Sold 10 of 237+ shares of PRPFX)
Outflow REIT Equity Preferred Stock: $230 (sold 10 EPRPRC at $23)
Realized Gain PRPFX and EPR.PRC = +$290.68
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Treasury Yield Curve May 2025:
Real Yield Curve - May 2025
CME FedWatch Tool Odds of a Fed Rate Cut on or before the July Meeting:
 |
| As of 8:o7 CST 5/16/25 |
One month ago:
94.3% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut and a 58.9% of at least a 50 basis cut.
CME FedWatch - CME Group This tool uses federal funds futures contracts.
Breakeven Inflation Rate: The average annual CPI needed for the TIP buyer to breakeven with the non-inflation protected treasury, viewed by many as the market's prediction of the annual average CPI over the term.
5 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 5/15/25: 2.41% (subtract real yield of 1.66% from 4.07% nominal yield)
1o Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 5/15/25: 2.34%
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The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell for the fifth consecutive month in May. The preliminary reading, subject to a later revision, was at 50.8, down from a final 52.2 in April. Consumers continue to expect a spike in inflation, rising to 7.3% over the next 12 months. Surveys of Consumers
Walmart (WMT) Q1 2026 earnings WMT Chief Financial Officer: "And so I’m concerned that consumer is going to start seeing higher prices. You’ll begin to see that, likely towards the tail end of this month, and then certainly much more in June." Howard Lutnick, Trump's Commerce Secretary: "Don’t buy the silly arguments that the U.S. consumer pays" the tariff taxes. Howard Lutnick rejects concerns about price increases - POLITICO WMT has so much leverage that it can force suppliers to eat some of the tariff taxes. That is not an option for small privately owned businesses or publicly traded companies that lack the same leverage as WalMart.
Zero ships from China are bound for California’s top ports. Officials haven’t seen that since the pandemic | CNN Business; US-China trade war pushed supply chain to breaking point, data shows This news and some other negative developments related to the 145% U.S. tariffs on China's exports caused Trump to capitulate. U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days in major trade breakthrough As usual, Trump did not consider the likely implications and repercussions resulting from a sudden and extreme increase in tariffs rates to a level that had the same impact as a near total embargo.
Now, there’s no denying it: Tariffs are raising prices I am reading multiple news articles every day about companies raising prices to U.S. consumers to recoup the republican tariff taxes. Notwithstanding that flood of evidence, Trump and his party will never admit that U.S. consumers are and will be paying the republican tariff taxes. Denying reality in favor of reality creations is part of their DNA and their self-created Orwellian "alternative facts" bubble. Alternative facts, witch hunt, covfefe, MAGA: Gossary of Trump terms- USA Today (1/16/18)
Trump was asked whether he was concerned that workers connected to U.S. imports would lose their jobs.
Reporter Question: We're seeing as a result that ports here in the US, the traffic has really slowed and now thousands of dockworkers and truck drivers are worried about their jobs."
Trump Response: "That means we lose less money ... when you say it slowed down, that's a good thing, not a bad thing"
Trump: China tariffs slowing down ports is a "good thing" A decline of 1% in cargo to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach would result in 2,769 jobs and endanger 4,000 more. Tariffs bring shipping slowdown, threatening trucking jobs at L.A. ports - Los Angeles Times
Trump looks at trade balances as a zero sum game. If exports from a foreign country to the U.S. exceed U.S. imports to that county, then Trump says the U.S. is losing money and that the foreign country is ripping the U.S. off even though the products are at a lower cost than the same products would cost if manufactured in the U.S.
What is actually happening is that U.S. importers are sourcing products that are unavailable or in limited supply in the U.S., delivering products to the U.S. that cost less to the U.S. consumers when manufactured overseas (e.g. clothes, shoes), thereby keeping inflation down, and using the surplus of U.S. Dollars to buy U.S. treasuries, other USD price securities and assets, and/or to build new U.S. manufacturing facilities. “The Trade Deficit Isn’t an Emergency—It’s a Sign of America’s Strength” Boston University
Annual CPI through April was reported at 2.3%. This data was compiled shortly after the sharp increase in tariff rates. I am expecting the tariff taxes to meaningfully increase inflation in the summer above where it would have been without those increases. Consumer Price Index Summary - 2025 M04 Results Annual core inflation was reported at 2.8%.
The Cleveland FED's Trimmed and Median CPI numbers are significantly higher than the CPI and Core CPI numbers:
Median CPI increased .3% month-to-month in April. Median CPI
The Atlanta FED has a "sticky" price CPI that rose at a 3.8% annualized rate in April, up 2.2% in March. The annual increase was at 3.2% with the core sticky price CPI up 3.8% over 12 month period ending in April. Sticky-Price CPI - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
America just imported a mountain of gold. Here's why that should scare you. | Morningstar This article notes that China recently gave its companies permission to exchange U.S. Dollars for gold.
GOP tax bill raises Obamacare premiums. These families would be hit hardest. - MarketWatch (subscription publication). I have discussed in the past how GOP policies on health insurance would severely harm most of their die hard supporters. (e.g. Republican Plans for Senior Health Insurance in 2024 - YouTube. Those supporters have never made that connection and probably never will.
Almost all House Republicans voted in favor of a bill to end traditional Medicare and to replace it with a voucher payment in Paul Ryan's Path to Prosperity bill that was passed in 2011, notwithstanding the fact that the plan, while giving tax cuts to the rich, would bankrupt most seniors when Medicare transitioned to the purchase of private health insurance with a government voucher to help with the premium payments (the first republican victims would be those who were 55 or younger when the bill was past):
This republican passed bill, which did not become law, basically transferred much of the cost burden due to inflation from the government to seniors in their retirement years.
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The End of Rule of Law - The Atlantic The author, a former republican U.S. Court of Appeals Judge, included a quote from Thomas Paine in Common Sense published in 1776: "For as in absolute governments the king is law, so in free countries the law ought to be king; and there ought to be no other."
Trump was showing a reporter new paintings that had been placed in the Oval Office after Trump started his second term. One of them was a portrait of the founding father and second President John Adams. The reporter asked whether Trump was aware that John Adams had said the U.S. government is ruled by laws, not by men. Trump's response: "John Adams said that? Where was the painting". Trump had no clue which painting was of John Adams. I doubt that he even knew who he was.
Trump names Todd Blanche Acting Librarian of Congress-NPR; Senior Justice Department officials tapped by Trump to run Library of Congress are denied access
Tulsi Gabbard Fires Officials After Assessment Finds Trump's Tren De Aragua Claims False Gabbard is a permanent resident of the Trump created Orwellian world where truth and facts are not allowed to exist.
Georgia teen arrested by ICE faces deportation, despite dismissed traffic charges: "My life is here" - CBS News Trump will be deporting this teenager who arrived in the U.S. when she was 4 and has spent her life since then in Georgia. She appealed to Trump to have compassion.
The WH says Trump is considering suspending habeas corpus. What would that mean? - ABC News Habeas Corpus is a fundamental legal right where a person can challenge the legality of their detention in a court.
The Supreme Court recently held that persons who were in the process of being deported must be given notice and an adequate opportunity to file a habeas corpus petition. What the Constitution, Supreme Court say about 'due process' for Trump deportees - ABC News
Steven Miller claimed that the Constitution "is clear and that, of course, is the supreme law of the land, that the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus can be suspended in time of invasion". Miller claims the President has the power to suspend habeas corpus.
The founder fathers were aware of the importance of this writ based on long standing English common law that dates back to clause 39 in the Magna Carta signed in 1215. The first writ of habeas corpus was in 1305. The writ is regarded as a fundamental legal principle in American jurisprudence since the nation was founded and viewed as an essential safeguard against abuses of executive powers.
The Constitutional provision regarding suspension of habeas corpus is not listed as Presidential power in Article II, but is contained in Article 1 that lists the powers of Congress. It reads as follows:
"The Privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it." Article 1 §9, Clause 2.
The last suspension of habeas corpus was through congressional action after Pearl Harbor and was limited to Hawaii. Prior to that suspension, there was a suspension authorized by Congress pursuant to an Act passed in 1871 that was limited to 9 counties in South Carolina in order to combat the Ku Klux Klan. Lincoln suspended the writ during the Civil War in certain areas when Congress was not in session which received so much criticism that he sought and received congressional approval. Habeas Corpus Suspension Act (1863) - Wikipedia
I view any unilateral suspension by a President to be unlawful since only Congress has that power. Even if the President had that power, Trump has claimed that he has shut down the border so there is no ongoing invasion which is a requirement for a suspension. Consequently I would expect the courts to strike down any Presidential orders suspending the writ as unconstitutional or as lacking the required factual predicate.
Trump administration poised to accept 'palace in the sky' as a gift for Trump from Qatar - ABC News; Qatar to donate a $400 Million Luxury jumbo jet for Trump's exclusive use as a presidential plane - CBS News; Converting luxury jet gifted to Trump into Air Force One could cost hundreds of millions This needs to be taken in conjunction with this news item: US approves $2 billion sale of drones, bombs, and missiles to Qatar - The Jerusalem Post Qatar was a major financial supporter of Hamas. Trump says he’ll accept a $400m gift from Qatar-which helped fund Hamas Pam Bondi, Trump's AG, not the AG for the nation, claimed there was nothing wrong with what Trump was doing. Bondi used to lobby for Qatar. Pam Bondi's Qatar Links Under Scrutiny Over Trump's Luxury Plane Gift - Newsweek (She was paid $115,000 per month).
What would the republicans say if Harris had won in 2024 and accepted that $400M luxury airplane gift after approving a huge advanced arms sale to Qatar? Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham could not stop talking about it for a month. It is pure hypocrisy of course which is one reason why no one should pay any attention to hypocritical propagandists.
Fascists are not going to have empathy or compassion.
How to Fight Fascism in America — with Timothy Snyder | Prof G Conversations - YouTube The first step IMO is simply to recognize that fascism with authoritarian rule by 1 person is the most powerful political force in America today and is not something that is temporary.
In addition to the fascism issue, the U.S. is moving toward a Kleptocracy. Kleptocracy, Inc. — with Anne Applebaum - YouTube
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The indentation of some snapshot was further to the left than normal caused by dragging and dropping some quotes that resulting in increasing the width of this post starting with the discussion below.
1. Sold 10 of 237+ PRPFX at $66.01:
Proceeds: $660.1
I mentioned selling those shares in a comment published on 5/14/25.
I discussed this mutual fund in a YT Video published about 1 year ago. Permanent Portfolio - YouTube
Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Added $100 to PRPFX at $47.98 (4/15/23. Post)
Profit Snapshot: $250.48
I am using average cost for this mutual fund.
PRPFX-Morningstar (classified as a moderate allocation fund and rated at 5 stars as of 5/14/25)
SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/31/25 PRPFX holdings can be found at pages 4-10.
Allocations as of 1/31/25:
The "Dollar Assets" consist of investment grade corporate bonds and treasuries weighted at 28.02%. Gold and silver bullion had a 26.42% weighting. The "Swiss Franc Assets" are Swiss government bonds.
The allocation target for gold and silver bullion is 25%, 30% for common stocks, 10% for Swiss Franc assets and 35% for Dollar Assets: Sponsor's website: The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds
I see no reason for owning Swiss government bonds given their low yields and the long standing Jihad of the Swiss central bank to devalue the Swiss Franc through negative or barely positive interest rates. That has been ongoing since about 2011. SNB policy rate
PRPFX allocations are kept relatively constant.
Talmud: The allocations are loosely based on the Talmud: 1/3rd in business, 1/3rd in reserves, 1/3rd in land. Talmudic Investing: an Asset Allocation Strategy of Biblical Proportions - Business Insider Another biblical asset allocation recommendation is in Ecclesiastes 11:2: "Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth."
A more standard Talmud allocation using ETFs would be VTI, VNQ and SHY or SGOV. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI); Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ); iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) or iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV). I would not own either SHY or SGOV preferring instead to buy treasury bills or short term T Notes at auction with some T Note purchases in the secondary market.
Possibly PRPFX uses Swiss Government bonds priced in Swiss Francs, U.S. investment grade corporate bonds and treasuries as the "reserve" component, with gold and silver bullion being the hard asset substitute for land, and stocks being the allocation to business.
Dividends: Paid Annually in December.
Dividends 2020-2025: $6.06 per share
Average cost per share: $40.96 (227+ shares)
The AC will remain unchanged whenever I sell shares since I am using the average cost method and am not reinvesting the dividend or buying more shares.
Previous Sells: +$899.1
$590.26 in 2015
$308.84 in 2017
In the 2013-2015 period, the fund paid $10.21 per share in dividends.
The total return on the shares sold in 2015 would be much higher than the net realized gain.
PRPFX Realized Gains to Date: $1,149.58
Unrealized Gain at $66.01: $5,701.91
Closing Price as of 5/14/25 after pare
My last elimination was in 2017: Item # 2.A. Eliminated PRPFX - Sold 125+ at $40.22 (8/7/2017 Post)
Closing Price on 2/19/25 (S&P all time high date): $64.51 (allowed to sell shares based on current VIX movement below 20 and price being above the 2/19/25 close) PRPFX Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance
2. Small Ball Stock Purchases:
All of these purchases, except for GIS, were made in my Schwab account.
The Schwab sweep account pays .05%.
I do not expect packaged food stocks to exit their current bear market pattern anytime soon. The current prices are attractive to me from a total return perspective and a 2 to 5 year time horizon.
Packaged food companies have had difficulty over the past several years increasing profits. The main problem has been the rapid increase in input costs resulting in significant price hikes for products that has resulted in lower volumes.
Increasing price just to recoup increased expenses does not result in higher profit margins and profits but pressure on both as the volume of products sold declines as consumers respond to buying less.
There is also concern about whether RFK Jr. will start to regulate the ingredients that food companies use through abandoning or modifying the GRAS rule. HHS Secretary Kennedy Directs FDA to Explore Rulemaking to Eliminate Pathway for Companies to Self-Affirm Food Ingredients Are Safe | HHS.gov; RFK Jr. wants to eliminate FDA’s controversial food additive program. Here’s why that matters | CNN
There are concerns that weight loss drug will reduce the demand for packaged foods.
A. Added to UMH - Bought 5 at $17.05; 5 at $16.7:
Quote: UMH Properties Inc. (UMH) - A REIT that owns manufactured home communities.
Cost: $168.75
Property Summary as of 3/31/25:
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added to UMH - Bought 5 at $16.82 (4/18/25 Post); Item # 6.C. Started UMH - Bought 10 at $17.57 (8/2/24 Post)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New Average cost per share: $17.01 (25 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.225 per share ($.9 annually), last raised from $.215 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment.
Yield at AC: 5.29%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/15/25 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filed Earnings Report
FFO per share: $.22
Normalized FFO per share: $.23
The noncash depreciation expense was the largest add back to GAAP at $16.663M.
Equity Preferred Stock: I also own a few shares of UMHPRD, a equity preferred stock that has a 6.375% coupon paid on a $25 par value. Item # 3.C. Restarted UMHPRD - Bought 10 at $21.26 (4/25/25 Post)
B. Added to GIS - Bought 5 at $53.8:
Quote: General Mills Inc. (GIS)
Cost: $269
Investment Categories: Bond Substitute, Dividend Safety with some growth, Contrarian Value
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B Sold Highest Cost GIS Shares - 10 at $65.26 and 5 at $63.9 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.75)
New Average cost per share: $55.43 (45 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.60 per share
I currently view the dividend as safe which I one reason why I own the shares. Dividend growth will be subdued to the earnings growth issues.
Yield at AC = 4.33%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/10/25
I am not reinvesting the dividend. I will consider reinvestment when and if there is steady price movement below $50.
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 2/23/25): SEC Filed Press Release This is for the third fiscal quarter.
This report and guidance was viewed unfavorably by investors. It is about what I expected under the circumstances.
Quarter Revenues: $4.8422B, down from $5.0992B, down 5%.
GAAP Diluted E.P.S. at $1.12, down from $1.17
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1, down 15% in constant currency
Diluted E.P.S. 9 months at $3.57, up from $3.33:
Net Sales Growth/Decline by Operating Segments:
Outlook:
The pet food segment has grown considerably through acquisitions starting with the Blue Buffalo acquisition in 2018: General Mills Completes Acquisition of Blue Buffalo Pet Products Third quarter net sales were reported at $624M.
Other Recent News: General Mills Completes Sale of Canadian Yogurt Business and Updates Fiscal 2025 Outlook for Recent Portfolio Reshaping Activity As noted in that release, GIS is in the process of selling its U.S. Yogurt business to Lactalis which is still pending. (see General Mills Announces Agreements to Sell Its North American Yogurt Business to Lactalis and Sodiaal). The two transactions were valued at approximately $2.1B. GIS estimated that the completion of both transactions would be about 3% dilutive to adjusted earnings per share in the 12 months following completion. Most of that would be associated with the U.S. Yogurt operations (e.g. Yoplait)
GIS Realized Gains to Date: +$3,081.68 (no realized losses - yet)
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Pared GIS - Sold 5 at $68.83 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $59.15); Item # 2.A. Pared GIS - Sold Highest Cost 5 Share Lot at $68.17 (3/22/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $28.61, discussed the earnings report for the F/Q ending 2/25/24, SEC Filed Earnings Press Release); Item # 1.C. Eliminated GIS in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 2+ at $80.41 (3/6/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $66.83); Item # 3.C. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $86.64 (12/13/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $145.71); Item # 6.A. Pared GIS - Sold 5 at $81.64 (11/8/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $118.72); Item # 4.B. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $80.65 (9/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $112.89); Item # 2.B. Sold 2+ GIS at $67.1 and 3 at $69.22 (1/7/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $46.67); Item # 3.B. Sold 1.582 GIS at $64.42 - Eliminated Shares Bought with Dividends (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $8.09); Item # 1.A. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 4 at $61.37 (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.95); Item # 1.A. Eliminated GIS-Sold 27+ at $54.86 (3/21/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $426.37); Item # 1.A. Sold 13 GIS at $55.02-Used Commission Free Trade (8/17/19 Post)(profit = $134.13); Item 1.B. Sold Highest Cost GIS lots at $51.69 (4/7/2019 Post); Item #2.A. Sold 10 GIS at $56.18-Used Commission Free Trade (12/21/17 Post) Snapshots of 2007 through 2017 round-trip trades can be found in Item 1.B (+$1,809.99). I did not track gains prior to 2007.
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (3/19/25): 4 stars with a FV estimate of $71.
Argus (4/11/25): Hold due to short term challenges with a long term buy rating
S&P (3/19/25): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $65. I would consider selling my highest cost shares at that price. 40-50 shares, however, is close to my minimum amount.
Last Bond Offering (4/25): Prospectus for €750M 3.6% Maturing in 2032.
Owned GIS SU Bonds:
2 Maturing on 2/10/27, Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 Maturing on 4/17/28, Bond Page | FINRA.org
I will probably buy 2 more with a later maturity.
C. Added to DOC - Bought 10 at $17.18; 10 at $17:
Cost: $341.77
After Healthpeak acquired Physicians Realty, it changed its stock symbol to DOC, which had been the Physicians Realty stock symbol. Most of my stock trades were the Physicians Realty (DOC) shares where I realized gains of $668.09 prior to its acquisition by Healthpeak.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Healthpeak is a S&P 500 component. A List of All Stocks in the S&P 500 Index
New average cost per share: $17.44 (80 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.1017 per share ($1.22 annually)
Yield at $17.5 = 6.995%
The dividend yield and valuation are sufficiently appealing to me that I will continue purchasing 10 share lots provided each subsequent purchase is at the lowest price in the chain. The price decline from the last purchase is not required to be much.
Next Ex Dividend: 5/19/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discuss this report in a recent post. Item # 1.B. Started DOC in Schwab Account - Bought 50 at $17.61 (5/2/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Added 10 DOC at $17.3 (5/9/25 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.G. Eliminated PEAK-Sold 15 at $31.08 (3/6/2021 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.01)
Owned SU Bonds:
The Physicians Realty LP debt was guaranteed by Healthpeak and the Healthpeak LP after the acquisition, see page 103 of the 2024 10-K.
4 Physicians Realty LP Maturing on 3/15/27, Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 Physicians Realty LP Maturing on 1/15/28, Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 Healthpeak Operating LLC 5.375% Maturing on 2/15/35, Bond Page | FINRA.org, which is my most recent purchase. Item # 2.D.(5/2/25 Post)
I have 4 Healthpeak 4% SU bonds maturing on 6/1/25.
D. Added to MRCC - Bought 5 at $6.45, 5 at $6.2:
Quote: Monroe Capital Corp. (MRCC) - Classified by me as a deservedly hated BDC
Cost: $63.25
With the classification, I will be cautious in both starting and adding to the position and will have a hair trigger on selling shares when and if my goal is realized.
MRCC SEC Filed Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 34 and ends at page 72) Summary of investments as of 12/31/24 starts at page 95.
MRCC 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 (Summary of investments starts at page 7)
Management Assessment of How Interest Rate Changes Impact Net Investment Income:
10-Q at page 106
Management Assessment of Credit Risks:
 |
| P.84 |
 |
| P. 85 |
"As of both March 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, there were ten borrowers with debt or preferred equity investments on non-accrual status (Arcserve Cayman Opco LP (fka Arcstor Midco, LLC), BTR Opco LLC (fka Born to Run, LLC), Education Corporation of America, Forman Mills, Inc., INH Buyer, Inc., LLC, MV Receivables II, LLC, NECB Collections, LLC, Prototek, LLC, Thrasio, LLC and Vice Acquisition Holdco, LLC). These investments totaled $14.5 million at fair value, or 3.4% of our total investments at fair value at March 31, 2025, and these investments totaled $15.7 million at fair value, or 3.4% of our total investments at fair value at December 31, 2024." (emphasis added)
The fair value will be as marked down below original cost. MV Receivables, for example, has an amortized cost of $7,737M and a "fair value" of $4.155M as of 3/31/25. The BTR Opco LLC junior secured loans have an amortized cost at $4.048M with a "fair value" at $504K. The Vice Acquisition Holdco loans have an amortized cost of $2.79M and a "fair value" of $573K.
One strange one is the loan to Education Corporation of America that has an amortized cost of $830K and a "fair value of $2.35M. That company filed for Chapter 11 in 2020. It was taking too much time to find information on this valuation so I quit the research.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.C. Eliminated MRCC -Sold 30 at $8.6 (2/10/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $44.59); Item # 3.D. Sold 20 MRCC at $8.05 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.05)
New Average cost per share: $6.54 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
Given the NII per share reported for the 2025 first quarter, which was substantially below the quarterly dividend per share, I would anticipate a likely dividend cut provided that situation continues.
Yield at $6.54: 15.29%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/14/25
Net Asset Value per share history: Unfavorable
3/31/25: $8.63
12/31/24: $8.85
9/30/24: $9.18
12/31/23: $9.40
12/31/22: $10.39
12/31/21: $11.51
12/31/20 $11
12/31/19: $12.2
12/31/18: $12.66
12/31/17: $13.77
12/31/16: $14.52
12/31/15: $14.19
12/31/14: $14.05
12/31/13: $13.92
Public Offering Price: $15 per share, proceeds to MRCC at $14.72, Monroe Capital Corporation
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Net Investment Income per share (NII): $.19, down from $.29 in the 2024 4th quarter. Pathetic.
"Total investment income for the quarter ended March 31, 2025 totaled $11.6 million, compared to $14.0 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024. Total investment income decreased by $2.4 million primarily due to the lower effective yield on the portfolio driven by base rate declines and lower spreads on certain portfolio assets as well as a decrease in average invested assets."
"Net gain (loss) was $(3.6) million for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, compared to $(7.7) million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024."
Goal: As with all BDC stocks, the goal is simply to collect the dividends and to exit the position at any profit.
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must lower my average cost per share.
E. Restarted HOLX - Bought 1 at $57.54; 1 at $53.17:
Quote: Hologic Inc. (HOLX) - Medical Diagnostics/Imaging/Surgical Products
HOLX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch The E.P.S. estimates are non-GAAP: $4.19 in 2025, $4.52 in 2026 and $5.23 in 2027 as of 5/15/25.
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy. Based on unsatisfactory recent operating results, I have demoted this non-dividend paying stock to a Lottery Ticket.
SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 9/28/24 (Products are described at pages 6-11)
Businesses:
Last Discussed: Item # 4.A. Eliminated HOLX - Sold 21+ at $75.69 (11/22/22 Post)(profit snapshot = net of $40.54); Item # 2.B. Sold 9 HOLX at $78.52; 7 at $78.64 (6/1/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $90.22)
Hologic experienced a surge in revenues and profits due the pandemic. Its diagnostic equipment and newly developed assays detected the presence of Covid.
Diluted Non-GAAP E.P.S. F/Y Ending in September
2020: $3.98
2021: $8.41, SEC Filing
2022: $6.02, SEC Filing
2023: $3.96, SEC Filing
The profits were redeployed in a series of expensive acquisitions. I eliminated my position since I formed an opinion that those acquisitions would not come close to replacing the lost Covid related revenues and profits and were questionable as to the prices paid. I anticipated write-downs in the years to come.
I better short and intermediate term use of that cash would have been to just buy the S&P 500. It is possible that those acquisitions may work out in the long term.
Acquisitions as Noted in Posts Prior to the 2022 Elimination:
Hologic Closes on Acquisition of Bolder Surgical; Hologic to Acquire Bolder Surgical for $160 Million, Expanding its Surgical Franchise (10/14/21)
Hologic Completes Acquisition of Mobidiag (6/17/21); Hologic to Acquire Mobidiag, Innovator in Near-Patient, Acute Care Diagnostic Testing, for Approximately $795 Million (Cash about $714M)
Hologic Acquires European Molecular Diagnostic Company Diagenode for Approximately $159 Million (3/1/21)
The total cash outlays for those 2021 acquisitions came to about $1.327B.
Other Acquisitions Include:
Hologic Completes Acquisition of Gynesonics, Inc.(1/6/25)(about $350M)
Hologic Completes Acquisition of Endomagnetics Ltd (7/25/24)(about $310M)
Average Cost per share: $55.36 (2 shares)
Dividends: None and none expected
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/29/25): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release This is for the second fiscal quarter.
GAAP E.P.S. ($.08)
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.03, excludes a $220.9M impairment charge
Revenues: $1.0053B
Revenue Breakdown by Operating Segment:
2025 Fiscal Year Guidance: Non-GAAP E.P.S. of $4.15 - $4.25/GAAP E.P.S. $2.47-$2.57
Maximum Position: 5 Shares
Purchase Restriction: 1 Share lots with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
F. Bought 2 U at 22.21; 1 at $21.02:
Cost: $65.44
I would characterize Unity as a company that provides software to create and grow games across all platforms.
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
U Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (As of 3/15/25, the average E.P.S. estimates for 2025 was $.74, rising to $.82 in 2026 and $.99 in 2027. Those would be non-GAAP estimates).
5 Year Chart: Major Bear Market Trend with no signs of a change IMO, though there appears to be some support near $20.
Average cost per share: $21.81 (3 shares)
Maximum Position: 10 shares
Purchase Restriction: 1 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filed Press Release
Revenue: $435M, down 6%
GAAP Net Loss: ($78M)
GAAP E.P.S. = ($.19)
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.24
Free Cash Flow: $7M
As with other software companies, the major upward adjustments in the adjusted earnings computation involve non-cash compensation and non-cash amortization expenses.
Reconciliation:
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| In Thousands |
G. Added to BBDC - Bought 2 at $8.61:
Cost: $17.22
BBDC SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report (Summary of risk factors starts at page 33 and ends at page 68).
Last Discussed: This is my most detailed recent discussion. Item # 1.E. Added to BBDC in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $8.79 (5/2/25 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item #1.K. Pared BBDC - Sold 10 at $10.76 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $18.97)
New average cost per share this account: $8.15 (30+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share ($1.04 annually)
BBDC Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Special Dividends:
$.05 per share that went ex dividend on 3/5/25
$.05 per shared declared with an ex dividend on 6/4/25
$.05 per share declared with an ex dividend on 9/3/25
Yield at New AC: 12.76% (regular dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend: 3/5/25 (regular of $.26 & special of $.05 per share)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filed Press Release
Net Investment Income per share: $.25, down from $.28 in 2024 4th quarter
Net Asset value per share: $11.29, same as 12/31/24
Weighted average yield of performing debt investments: 9.9%, down from 10.2% in the 2024 4th quarter.
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 Summary of investments starts at page 8.
Investment Categories: 72% first lien loans
 |
| Page 68, 10-Q |
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| Pages 108-109 10-Q |
Summary of nonaccrual loans starts at page 109. As of 3/31/25, 9 companies were on non-accrual with an aggregate fair market value of $14.5M or .6% of the portfolio's total fair market. The amortized cost of those loans was in the aggregate $47.6M or 1.8% of the total aggregate amortized cost.
Management Assessment of How Interest Rate Changes Impact NII:
 |
| P. 131, 10-Q |
Goal: As with all BDCs, the goal is to realize any total return in excess of the dividend payments.
Other Buy Discussions: Item # 2.F. Added to BBDC in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 10 at $8.67 (12/9/23 Post); Item # 1.A. Added to BBDC - Bought 10 at $8.94 - Vanguard Account (11/25/23 Post); Item # 3.A. Added 40 BBDC at $7.75 - Vanguard Account (7/15/23 Post);Item # 2.F. Added 5 BBDC at $7.21 - Vanguard Account (5/20/23 Post); Item # 2.K. Added 5 BBDC at $7.65 - Vanguard Account (3/19/23 Post)
SU Bonds: I own 2 Barings BDC 3.3% SU bonds maturing on 11/23/26 that were bought at a 90.1 total cost. Item # 4.B. (12/9/23 Post)(YTM then at 7.066%)
H. Added to FLO - Bought 5 at $16.9; 5 at $16.5:
Cost: $167
The earnings report released earlier today, discussed below, initially caused a stock price decline. I responded by buying 5 shares at $16.5. As of 9:15 A.M. the shares are trading at $17.19, up $.12.
Website: Home - Flowers Foods
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added 10 FLO at $17.4 (5/2/25 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.C. Eliminated FLO -Sold 20 at $28.3 (1/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $119.76)
SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report for the F/Y ending 12/28/24
Website: Home - Flowers Foods
New Average Cost per share: $18.05 $(35 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually)
I am not reinvesting the dividend.
It would be prudent IMO to slash the dividend by at least 50% and to use the savings to pay down debt. The company has $400M in a 3.5% SU note maturing next year. Refinancing will be at a much higher coupon.
Shares outstanding as of 4/19/25: 228,729,585
Dividend Cost at $.96 annual: $219,580,401.
50% Reduction saves $109.79+M per year
If I was in charge, I would keep the quarterly at $.12 per share, slashed from $.24, for at least 5 years or until the Simple acquisition starts to make substantial positive contributions (longer than 5 years or shorter).
My gut has informed me that the Board, having raised the quarterly dividend from $.23 effective for the 2024 second quarter, will probably not cut the dividend.
Yield at New AC: 5.32% (assumes no change in the current payout)
Last Ex Dividend: 2/28/25
Other Recent News: Flowers Foods Completes Acquisition of Simple Mills Mills (2/21/25) To pay for this acquisition, FLO sold $500M in 5.7% SU notes maturing in 2035 and $300M of 6.2% SU notes maturing in 2055. Prospectus The total consideration was $848.537M, page 13 10-Q.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 4/19/25): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
This report was for the first fiscal quarter.
Revenues: $1.554B, down 1.4% as the $24.3M contribution to net sales from the Simple acquisition, completed on 2/21/25, was more than offset by pricing/mix.
GAAP E.P.S. = $.25, down $.09
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.35, down $.03
Reconciliation:
Depreciation and Amortization Non-Cash Expenses: $49.268M, up from $48.235M. Adding back those numbers make the GAAP earnings look better.
Net Interest expense expense increased by $8.4M primarily due to the higher interest expense associated with the debt issued to finance the Simple acquisition.
The Simple acquisition resulted in a net loss of $4.2M or ($.02) to E.P.S. inclusive of the increased interest expense and amortization of acquired intangible assets.
Current Fiscal Year Guidance: Adjusted E.P.S. guidance lowered to $1.05 to $1.15 compared to the prior guidance of $1.11 to $1.24.
The partial year Simple acquisition is now expected to contribute ($.08) to ($.07) in adjusted E.P.S. compared to the prior guidance of ($.07) to ($.04).
It remains to be seen whether Flowers overpaid for this acquisition, but the early results are not comforting and that is contributing to the price decline today.
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Purchase Restriction: 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. It will likely IMO be two years before I know whether or not the Simple acquisition was a mistake based on its cost including interest expenses on the new debt. A significant rally in the stock price is possible when and if investors conclude from actual data, as distinguished from FLO's forecasts, that this acquisition was a good one.
I. Restarted TFC - Bought 5 at $16.5:
Quote: Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC)
Cost: $82.5
The company is involved in a proxy contest with the challengers wanting the company to unlock value by selling property. I have not yet seen the results of that contest. As measured by the stock price, negative value has been created since I last sold shares in 2010, though the company does now have joint venture interests in several operating commercial and industrial properties that it did not have in 2010. The development process has been slowed down by environmental litigation and regulatory approvals.
I would generally describe this company as asset rich without producing much in the way of GAAP earnings. There is no dividend and no dividend is likely to be paid until there is a significant liquidation of its assets.
The "prime asset is approximately 270,000 acres of contiguous, largely undeveloped land that, at its most southerly border, is 60 miles north of downtown Los Angeles and, at its most northerly border, is 15 miles east of Bakersfield." SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report at page 4 The annual report has some property maps that need to be viewed at pages 5-7, 12, 16 and 19. As shown in the maps, a considerable portion of the land consists of mountain ranges.
Highway 99 and Interstate 5 adjoin the eastern and southern sections of the ranch. The company is involved in 9 joint ventures that "either own, develop, and/or operate real estate properties."
Joint Ventures:
The most important ongoing activity is the build out of mixed-use planned residential communities, which have receiving approval, for up to 35,278 housing units and more than 35M square feet of commercial space. Those properties are located in Kern County
One planned mixed use development that is located in Los Angeles County, called Centennial that received approval from the County in 2019 but a court enjoined development after prolonged litigation in 2013 which decision is now on appeal. The lawsuits were filed by the Center for Biological Diversity and California Native Plant Society.
As of 12/31/24, the industrial portfolio consisted of 2.8M square feet and the commercial properties had 620,807 square feet.
While I only read excerpts of the report, I only noticed that there was only 1 housing development that started construction in 2024 (page 13).
TRC also engages in farming and ranch operations that are unprofitable most years or barely profitable (pages 24, 46-49).
The mineral resource segment is profitable and is described at pages 24-25 and 45 of the Annual Report.
Annual Report at page 10
Shares Outstanding as of 3/31/25: 26,867,600
Market Capitalization at $16.5: $443+M
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): 10-Q
Revenues: $8.209M (paltry compared to the market capitalization)
Diluted E.P.S = (.05)
This stock is not valued by investors based on earnings but as an asset play.
Last Elimination: Item # 4. Sold 40 TRC at $25.02 (11/12/2010 Post)(profit snapshot = $116.68) There were no trades in between the 2010 elimination and the 5/14/25 purchase. There was a 1031 to 1000 share split in 2013. The closing price on 11/10/10, adjusted for that split, was at $23.56.
I have mixed feeling about whether I want the current Board replaced as a result of the proxy fight. Selling off some assets now could bring a higher share price, assuming the current share price understates their value. Long term shareholders have lost money adjusted for inflation since I last sold this stock in 2010. That is just a fact.
However, longer term, meaning more than 10 years from today, the assets may become considerably more valuable, particularly with the ongoing build out of commercial, industrial and residential properties. A major problem has been the delays in new developments resulting from litigation and regulatory/permitting issues.
At 5 or 100 shares, I am effectively not involved in the stock as a practical matter.
3. Corporate Bonds:
For bonds maturing in 2032 or later, I would describe the interest rate risk as meaningful but acceptable to me. If there was any possibility that I would be forced to sell this bond at a loss, I would not buy it.
When the bond can be held to maturity, which is the case for all that I own, the interest rate risk IMO is simply the risk of lost opportunity, a form of interest risk where I lose the opportunity to buy bonds with higher yields using funds tied up in lower yielding ones.
A. Bought 2 UDR 5.125% SU Maturing on 9/1/34 at a Total Cost of 97.347- Interactive Brokers Account:
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Issuer: UDR Inc. (UDR) - Apartment REIT
I have a position in the common stock.
Last UDR Discussion: Item # 1.M Added 1 UDR at $38.79; 1 at $37.47 (4/13/25 Post)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.492%
Current Yield at TC: 5.265%
Other owned UDR SU Bonds:
I refer to this as stacking:
Finra Links
4 of the 2026 UDR 2.9% SU (Maturing 9/1/26)
5 of the 2027 UDR 3.5% SU
3 of the 2028 UDR 3.5% SU
4 of the 2029 UDR 4.4% SU
B. Bought 2 Kroger 5% SU Maturing on 9/15/34 at a Total Cost of 97.594 - Fidelity Account:
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Issuer: Kroger Co. (KR)
"As of February 1, 2025, Kroger operates supermarkets under a variety of local banner names in 35 states and the District of Columbia. As of February 1, 2025, Kroger operated, either directly or through its subsidiaries, 2,731 supermarkets, of which 2,273 had pharmacies and 1,702 had fuel centers." Annual Report at page 29
I had order books from Fidelity and Vanguard open when I placed this order in my Fidelity account. The best price for a 2 bond lot shown in the Vanguard order book, with the $1 per bond commission, was 97.758 or .164 higher. Vanguard will frequently have less favorable pricing for small lot corporate bond purchases. Fidelity will have the best price most of the time, with Interactive Brokers being better at times and Vanguard being no better than equal to the Fidelity best price.
This bond was part of $10.5B in bonds sold to finance the acquisition of Albertsons which was not consummated due to regulatory opposition. Kroger and Albertsons play blame game after failed merger in billion-dollar battle | Reuters Of that amount, $4.7B was repaid due to a mandatory redemption requirement triggered by the merger termination (first 4 notes in the previous snapshot), Annual Report at page 100
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Fiscal Quarter Ending 2/1/25 (revenues $34.308B, net income of $634M and operating profit at $912M).
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.329%
Current Yield at TC = 5.123%
C. Bought 1 San Diego Gas & Electric 5.4% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 4/15/35 at a Total Cost of 99.757 - Fidelity Account:
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Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Sempra (SRE)'
I previously bought 1 San Diego Gas & Electric 5.3% first mortgage bond maturing on 5/15/25 at a total cost of 99.065.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A1/A
Prospectus The description of the first lien and exceptions to it can be found at page 17.
YTM at Total Cost: 5.419%
Current Yield at TC: 5.413%
D. Bought 1 Arizona Public Service 5.625% SU Maturing on 5/15/33 at a Total Cost of 99.169 - Fidelity Account:
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Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Pinnacle West Capital Corp. (PNW)
Arizona Public Service Quarterly Results (the 2024 first quarter had a gain from an asset sale):
10-Q at page 10
Revenue and profits are weather related with the third quarter producing the best results. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 (Diluted E.P.S. at $3.37 for the quarter and $5.32 for the nine months)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.756%
Current Yield at TC: 5.672%
E. Bought 1 Dominion Energy 5.125% SU Maturing on 8/1/33 at a Total Cost of 98.51 - Interactive Brokers Account:
Issuer: Dominion Energy Inc. (D) - Major Utility Holding Company
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.476%
Current Yield at TC = 5.2%
I now own 4 bonds, which includes 2 own in Roth IRA accounts (1 in each RI account).
F. Bought 2 Southwestern Electric and Power 5.3% SU Maturing on 4/1/33 at a Total Cost of 98.667 - Vanguard Account:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of the utility holding company American Electric Power Co. Inc. (AEP)
AEP 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 The Southwestern Electric results can be found starting at page 87.
This company is different from the Southwestern Public Service company that issues first mortgage bonds and is owned by Xcel Energy.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.51%
Current Yield at TC: 5.372%.
I also own 2 Southwestern SU bonds maturing on 10/1/2026.
G. Bought 1 Entergy Mississippi 5% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/1/33 at a Total Cost of 98.240 - Vanguard Account:
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Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
ETR SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report Entergy Mississippi operating results starts at page 372.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.263%
Current Yield at TC: 5.09%
I now own 9 bonds.
H. Bought 2 Xcel Energy 5.45% SU Maturing on 8/15/33 at a Total Cost of 99.65:
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Issuer: Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) - Utility Holding Company
Several of the operating subsidiaries issue first mortgage bonds.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.502%
Current Yield at TC: 5.469%
4. Treasury Bill Purchases at Auction:
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 5/14/25 Auction - Schwab Account:
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119 Day Bill
Matures on 9/16/25
Interest: $70.08
Investment Rate: 4.36%
I had $15,000 in treasury bills mature on 5/15/25 in this account.
Of that amount, $10K will be used to buy a 6 month T Bill at next Monday's auction.
With that upcoming purchase, T Bills, short term T Notes and a purchased Treasury MM fund will have about a 54.4% weighting in my Schwab account. This is another reason among several others why I am comfortable taking on more interest rate risk through purchasing of corporate bonds maturing in more than 5 years.
5. U.S. Equity REIT Preferred Stocks:
A. Sold 10 EPRPRC at $23:
Issuer: EPR Properties (EPR)
This preferred stock has been in an uptrend due to investors placing some value on the conversion to common stock feature IMO.
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: $40.2
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 5.A. Restarted EPRPRC - Bought 10 at $19.31 (3/8/24 Post)
Preferred Stock Prospectus
Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock, senior only to common stock.
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.75%
Dividends: Paid Quarterly, Non-Qualified and Cumulative
Conversion into Common Stock: This is complicated, and I no longer make an effort to understand it.
The conversion price started at $71.34 and has drifted down as determined by a complex formula which reduces the conversion price by how much the common stock dividend exceeds $.685 per quarter. As of 3/31/25, the conversion price has been reduced to $51.73. Summary-of-Series-E-Preferred-Shares.pdf
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 5.B. Sold 21 EPRPRC at $20.78 (1/20/24 Post)(profit snapshot = net of $26.54) Item # 4.B. Sold 10 ERPPRC at $20.32 (7/3/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $76.66); Item # 3.B. Sold 10 EPRPRC at $17.5 and 5 at $16.22 (5/2/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.6); Item # 3 Sold 50 EPRPRC at $27.49 (10/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $178.58); Item # 1.B. Sold 50 EPRPRC at $28.48 (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $224.22); Item # 3 Sold 50 EPRPRC-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $160.48)
Realized Gains EPR.PRC to Date: $723.28
Current position: I still own 10 shares which I plan to sell when and if the price goes over $25. The coupon is relatively unattractive at the current price. Price appreciation will be related to how much value is placed on the conversion into common stock.
6. Cash Flow into Fidelity Account on 5/15/25:
Corporate Bond Redemption Proceeds: $7,000 ($5K was in first mortgage bonds issued by Public Service of Colorado and Public Service Electric & GAS)
Interest: $1,222.12 (all corporate bond except for $20.63 in Treasury note interest)
Dividends: $31.53
First Mortgage Bonds: PPL Electric, San Diego Gas & Electric, Public Service of Colorado and Public Service Electric & Gas. I have replaced the 2 of the 3 Public Service of Colorado bonds that matured on 5/15.
The Treasury Note maturing on 11/15/27 was one of 3 bought at below par value in December 2024-January 2025. Item # 5.C (YTM then at 4.348%). The other 2 are own in my Schwab Account and were bought in January 2025.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC)
ReplyDelete$32.03 +$0.16 +0.50%
Last Updated: May 16, 2025 at 10:48 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mfc
MFC is one of 20 common stocks that I have identified as eligible for pares, meaning their current prices are higher than their closing prices as of 2/19/25 when the S&P 500 hit its all time high.
MFC closed that day at $29.78.
I sold 5 out of 75 shares earlier this morning at $32.025, part of a 100 share lot that was originally purchased at $11.41 on 4/24/20 during the pandemic meltdown in stocks.
Item # 2.D. Bought 100 MFC at $11.41 (5/9/20 Post)
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/05/fieca-mfc-mnrprc-sca-scm-pba-pwcdf-scm.html
The profit for that 5 share lot was $103.1, up from the prior 5 share lot sale on 3/25/25 at $31.59 that netted a $100.91 profit.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Pared MFC - Sold 5 at $31.59: (4/4/25 Post)
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/04/monthly-update-april-2025.html
To be eligible for sale now, I am requiring that the VIX must be moving below 20 and the price must be higher than the 2/19/25 close.
Were you able to get any selling done before the vix moved above 20?
DeleteLand: I did slightly reduce my already low stock allocation by reducing some stock positions or eliminating duplicate stock positions where I own a stock in more than 1 of my taxable accounts.
DeleteThe Vix Model predicts that a Recovery Period will occur after a Trigger Event (TE) and the formation of an Unstable Vix Pattern (UVP). The Model does not predict how lown the RP will last. Historically, the RP is temporary and the VIX will continue a whipsaw pattern higher by spiking into the high 20s or higher that will be accompanied by a stock market decline.
The reason is that the conditions that caused the TE did not disappear and are still present, even though stock investors presumed that the conditions causing the UVP are gone.
Trump is still an insane, ignorant, intolerant impulsive, authoritarian psychopath.
I published earlier this morning a YouTube video that discusses utility first mortgage (FM) and senior unsecured bonds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRNa2nKx9As
I have been gravitating more to the FM bonds for the reasons discussed in that video.
I have also been buying more AAA rated municipal bonds.
I've been wondering if mutual funds were starting to look more attractive.
DeleteFirst foundation bank, has just changed the rate to 4.25% APY. Unlike vanguards treasuring mutual funds, it's state taxable.
I came across info, that,
If one is trying to reduce income to avoid paying an additional margin on their social security (they're income is enough to pay tax on 50% or 85% of their SS) then mutual funds still counts as income.
I bought the 6 month treasury bill that was auctioned earlier today at a 4.287% investment rate. I view that IR to be inconsistent with any Fed rate cuts on or before the July meeting. There is about a 30% probability built into that IR in my opinion that there will be a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting. This 6 month bill matures on 11/20.
ReplyDeleteI do not see the Moody's downgrade as having much impact other than in the price of gold which I view as an alternative to fiat currencies. M2 was close to $4.75 trillion in May 2020 and at $21.762T in March 2025. The most recent parabolic rise took the M2 money supply from 15.416T in January 2020 to $21.45T in April 2022 due to the Fed's aggressive money creation through Q/E in response to the pandemic. The FED created money to buy treasuries and mortgage backed securities and took its holding over $9 trillion by the 2022 first quarter.
M2 Chart - St Louis Fed
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
The concern about the U.S.D. as a long term store of value is partially based on robust money creation by the Fed in response to economic downturns, something that will occur again and again as trillions of new money are added that have no use in the real economy.
Live gold Price
May 19, 2025 - 12:17 EST
$3,228.10 +$26.40 +0.82%
https://www.kitco.com/charts/gold
I have been considering selling 2 ounces of gold but it has paid off recently to do nothing.
It's been a long week of going to medical appointments with my dad in NYC.
ReplyDeleteSo I haven't done much with the market this week. I was hoping to see a continued rally. The move yesterday 3% down at least in small caps and Vixs above 20, is a bit spooky. I'm hoping the market moves back up to that pre 3%, because I plan to sell. For me that was the indicator not to take a chance on this recovery period continuing to last.
(Side note, I could not live in the city. People cutting you off left and right, walking in front of your green light, and it's so congested. The smog factor. It might be the home of the most important stock market in the world, but I'm a country bumpkin.)
Thanks for all this info!
ReplyDeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/05/cag-cold-elc-enbprp-gmre-hiw-kmi-megi.html