Asset Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $19,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $10,000 in principal amount.
Purchased Treasury MM Fund-SNOXX: $2,000
This is just an alternative to holding excess funds in Schwab's sweep account that pays only .45%. The current 7 day SEC yield for SNOXX is 5.03%.
Outflow Individual common stocks: -$2,807.74
(Consisting of $3,488.23 in proceeds minus $680.49 in purchases)
Realized Gains Common Stocks: +$798.83
Balanced CEF: $182.97 (owns mostly stocks and hence classified as a stock fund for this purpose)
Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$2,625.67
2024 Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$16,148.72
++++++
Williamson County, TN GO Early Bond Redemption:
I doubt that the issuer can refinance at a lower coupon rate.
Interest is federally tax free. There is no Tennessee state income tax.
The call may simply be due to having an excess amount of cash on hand and using it to redeem bonds.
+++++
Trump and His Party:
RealClearPolitics-Election-2024 Republican Presidential Nomination
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Alabama Supreme Court rules frozen embryos are children The republicans on the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that a IVF clinic could be sued for wrongful death when a person pick up a container containing a frozen embryo, suffered a freeze burn and then accidentally dropped the container on the floor. I have published two videos discussing this ruling: A frozen embryo located in Alabama is now a human being - YouTube; The American Taliban Movement - YouTube
The concurring opinion of the Alabama Chief Justice C.J. Parker relies in substantial part on the bible and religious doctrine, see pages 33-38 Decision,pdf. Justice Parker is part of what I call the American Taliban wing of Trump's party. He believes in the "Seven Mountains" mandate that would require the bible to govern all aspects of American life. Alabama justice who ruled embryos are people says American law should be rooted in the Bible; Seven Mountain Mandate - Wikipedia The republican Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is a believer in the Seven Mountain Mandate. Speaker Mike Johnson draws scrutiny for ties to far right Christian movements : NPR
Alabama Justice Who Ruled That Embryos Are ‘Children’ Appeared On QAnon Conspiracist's Show
‘Pulled out of thin air’: Daniel Dale fact-checks Trump’s claims In a Fox Town Hall - YouTube The Fox "news" anchor Laura Ingraham, who moderated the town hall, allowed Trump to go unchallenged as he made one demonstrably false claim after another.
Trump Fully Devours the Republican Establishment - The New York Times Republicans are defining who they are by continuing to support Donald as their leader. They can no longer profess ignorance about who and what he is.
The Republicans want to impeach Biden based on information provided by Alexander Smirnov, who has been indicted for providing the FBI with false information about Joe and Hunter Biden. A Special Counsel presented evidence to a Grand Jury that the informant had lied to the FBI, and the GJ has now indicted him for alleged violations of 18 U.S.C. §1001 and §1519. Special Counsel David C. Weiss’s Office | Grand Jury Returns Indictment Charging FBI Confidential Human Source with Felony False Statement and Obstruction Crimes The indictment can be found at the preceding link.
Alexander Smirnov: Former FBI informant charged with lying about the Bidens’ role in Ukraine business The republicans are saying that the indictment is not enough to discredit Smirnov or to dismiss his allegations as untrue.
Fox News Silent on Bogus Hunter Biden Witness It Hyped
Indicted ex-FBI informant told investigators he got Hunter Biden dirt from Russian intelligence officials So it was Putin passing along information through Smirnov to damage Biden's reelection chances, and James Comer (R-KY), Jim Jordan (R-OH), and other republicans are among Putin's "useful idiots". Comer did suggest that the House may go ahead and impeach Biden unless the Senate convicts Mayorkas who was impeached by the republicans for no reason based on the constitutional standard and as an election year political stunt. "The math keeps getting worse": James Comer admits he may have to give up on Biden impeachment probe | Salon.com
Ex-FBI informant admits getting Hunter Biden dirt from Russian intelligence - YouTube
This is the second "informant" in the GOP's Biden impeachment effort, viewed by the republicans as credible witnesses, to be indicted for crimes. The other was indicted for being both an unregistered agent for China and an arms dealer. GOP House 'informant' indicted on allegations he was an agent for China; House Republicans’ Great Hope to Bring Down “Biden Crime Family” Was ... a Chinese Spy?! | The New Republic
The Last Sane Republican - YouTube
Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius says 2% defense spending just the start
Trump unveils sneaker line. See what they look like - YouTube; Trump promotes sneaker line after ordered to pay more than $350 million in civil fraud trial - YouTube; 'A Lot Of Emotion': Trump Reacts To Booing At Sneaker Con In Philadelphia - YouTube; 'The grift continues': Trump launches a sneaker line - YouTube Trump's primary profitable business is licensing his name to others who take the financial risks on property developments or products.
Fact check: Trump falsely claims Nikki Haley supported Obama over Republican opponent Romney
Russia raises its flag in Avdiivka, then presses the advantage on a vulnerable Ukraine;
'We don't have enough ammunition': Ukraine soldier on the frontline | Dispatch - YouTube
'He's always been a fraud and a cheat' - YouTube
Sen. Tim Scott declines to say whether he would’ve certified 2020 election results if he were vice president The two other potential republican candidates for Trump's VP, Elise Stefanik and Senator Vance (R-OH), have publicly stated that they would have rejected the certified election results, a clearly unconstitutional action. Veepstakes auditions heat up on Capitol Hill as Stefanik and Vance echo Trump’s Jan 6 rhetoric (Stefanik: "I would not have done what Mike Pence did. I don’t think that was the right approach.")
Stefanik was one of the 126 House GOP members who signed a petition filed with the Supreme Court requesting that the Court throw out the certified election results in 4 states won by Biden and to authorize the state legislatures in those states to decide who won, all of whom were dominated by republicans.House Members Who Signed a Brief Asking the Supreme Court to Consider Overturning the Election- ProPublica
While Biden and other leaders in western democracies criticized Russia for Navalny's death, Trump had this to say in his typical juvenile manner:
Trump: "The sudden death of Alexei Navalny has made me more and more aware of what is happening in our Country. It is a slow, steady progression, with CROOKED, Radical Left Politicians, Prosecutors, and Judges leading us down a path to destruction. Open Borders, Rigged Elections, and Grossly Unfair Courtroom Decisions are DESTROYING AMERICA. WE ARE A NATION IN DECLINE, A FAILING NATION! MAGA2024." Unfortunately, this kind of demagogic nonsense works on tens of millions when the normal response is total disgust.
Trump coopts Navalny’s legacy as a smokescreen for his own legal morass This is what the buffoon had to say at a town hall: "It’s happening in our country too. We are turning into a Communist country in many ways. And if you look at it, I’m the leading candidate, I got indicted. … I got indicted four times. I have eight or nine trials … all because of the facts that I’m in politics."
My video: Trump and Putin Part 3 - YouTube
My video: Putin's Useful Idiots Jim Jordan and James Comer - YouTube
Trump admits he ruined border deal to hurt Democrats - YouTube
George Santos (R) sues Jimmy Kimmel over Cameo videos
Daily Show take on Nikki Haley being characterized as a "moderate": Nikki Haley's Misleading "Moderate" Reputation | The Daily Show - YouTube
Nikki Haley IVF: 2024 presidential candidate stirs controversy over the comment ‘frozen embryos are babies’; Nikki Haley doesn't cite slavery as cause of the Civil War after question at campaign stop - ABC News
Putin and His Orwellian Mafia State:
Losses ∙ Russia - WarSpotting-documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Putin looms over a third successive US election;
Alexander Smirnov told investigators he got Hunter Biden dirt from Russian intelligence officials Evidence supporting that claim can be found in this government court filing: U.S. v. Alexander Smirnov, Government's Memorandum In Support of Detention.pdf at pages 16-27.
Former top Trump adviser reveals why 'Putin thinks he is an easy mark' - YouTube
Putin is responsible for Navalny's death. Putin's democracy 'fiction' destroyed by Alexei Navalny's death | David Petraeus - YouTube I am surprised that he survived as long as he did. He barely survived Putin's last assassination attempt by receiving medical treatment in Germany rather than in Russia.
After Trump's party cut off additional funding for Ukraine, the Ukraine army ran of of artillery shells and other ammunition sufficient to counter the Russian advance into Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Avdiivka Ukrainian commanders are being forced by Trump's party to ration ammunition.
US-Russian citizen arrested after she gave $51 to Ukraine, employer says - YouTube She lives in the U.S. and was arrested after visiting her parents in Russia. All U.S. citizens who are not embassy employees need to leave Russia immediately. The U.S. embassy has not been granted access to this young woman since Russia does not recognize dual citizenship.
Russian pilot Maxim Kuzminov who defected to Ukraine 'shot dead' in Spain
Ukrainian priest abducted and tortured to death in Russian-occupied Kherson oblast; Russian troops kill Ukrainian priest who refused to convert to Moscow patriarchate - Euromaidan Press
Ukrainian police identify 875 of 1,008 killed people in areas of Kharkiv Oblast that were occupied by Russia in 2022 (2/16/24) Russia is a terrorist state.
+++
1. Small Ball Buys:
I am just nibbling on utility stocks whose prices retreated as intermediate term interest rates continued to rise. For the utility stock purchases discussed below, dividend yields at the price paid are acceptable to me and there is historical growth in the dividend rates. I still anticipate that the FED will lower the FF by 25 basis points at the June meeting and another 25 basis points later in 2024. If that occurs, a 4.5% current dividend yield from a stock will look better than now.
A. Added to MEGI - Bought 5 at $12.44; 5 at $12.2; 5 at $11.95:
Quote: MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Term Fund Overview - A leveraged balanced CEF that owns mostly common stocks with some convertible securities, CEFs, bonds and preferred stocks.
Cost: $182.97
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
These purchases were made in my Fidelity account where I am working my way up to $200 per month in monthly dividends paid just by CEFs.
MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Term Fund - SEC Filed Annual Report for the period ending 5/31/23
MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Term Fund - SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 11/30/23 (Leverage information at page 23: "During the six-month period ended November 30, 2023, the Fund utilized the line of credit for 183 days, maintained an average daily balance of $279,420,219 at a weighted average interest rate of 6.48% and incurred interest expense in the amount of $9,073,794. As of November 30, 2023, borrowings outstanding with respect to the Fund under the Credit Agreement were $276,800,000.")
Sponsor's website: MEGI MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Fund | New York Life Investments
MEGI Portfolio | Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings) Of those top holdings, I have positions in Enbridge (3 taxable accounts, waiting for a $40+ price to liquidate 1 duplicate), Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (AY), OGE Energy (OGE), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), and Dominion Energy (D).
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Bought 10 MEGI at $13.08 (12/16/23 Post)
New Average Cost per share: $12.66 (35+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.125 per share ($1.5 per share annually)
Yield at New AC = 11.85%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/23/24 (owned all as of)
Data Date of 2/13/24 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $13.76
Closing Market Price: $12.13
Discount: -11.85% at closing price
Sourced: MEGI-CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" tab)
B. Added to NSA - Bought 5 at $35.65:
Quote: National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA) - Internally Managed Storage REIT
Cost: $178.25
Website: National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added 5 NSA at $36.63 (2/9/2024 Post)
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.C. Started NSA - Bought 5 at $38.41, 5 at $37.95; 5 at $37.35 (2/2/24 Post) I discussed the 2023 third quarter report in that post. SEC Filing The 4th quarter report is scheduled for release on 2/28/24
New Average Cost per share: $37.2 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.56 per share ($2.24 annually), last raised from $.55 effective for the 2023 second quarter payment.
Dividend History-National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
Yield at New AC = 6.02%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/14/23
I also have a small ball position in the preferred stock NSAPRA.
C. Added to FTS - Bought 1 at $39.38; 1 at $39.06; 1 at $38.68; 1 at $38.38:
Quotes:
USDs: Fortis Inc.
CADs: Fortis Inc. (Canada: Toronto)
Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
Cost: $155.5
Website: Home
FTS SEC Filings (foreign company filings)
New Average cost per share: $39.43 (9 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.59 per share, last raised from C$.565 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment.
Dividend Growth:
 |
| 2023 Annual Report at page 4 |
Last Ex Dividend: 2/15/24 (owned all as of)
Next Ex Dividend: 5/16/24
Last 4 Dividends in USDs: $1.7 per share
Yield: The dividend yield will depend on the CAD/USD conversion rates. Using the US$1.7 for the last 4 dividends, the yield is about 4.31% at an average cost of $39.43.
Last Ex Dividend: 2/15/24 (owned all as of)
Last Discussed: Item # 5.D. Restarted FTS - Bought 5 at $39.88 (11/22/22 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23):
All amounts are in Canadian Dollars.
2023 Reported earnings per share: C$3.1
2023 Adjusted earnings per share: C$3.09, up from C$2.78 in 2022
2023 4th quarter adjusted E.P.S. = C$.72, reported E.P.S. at C$.78
Last Elimination: Item # 2.J. Eliminated FTS - Sold 10 at $45.16 (3/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $61.85)
Fortis Reset Equity Preferred Stocks: I own 150 shares of the Fortis reset equity preferred stock FTS-PM.TO. Item # 2.B. Bought 50 FTS.PRM at C$12.4 (5/23/20 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 50 FTS.PRM at C$16.28 (3/14/20 Post); Item # 2. A. Bought 50 FTS.PRM at C$17.55 (11/23/19 Post) That preferred stock will reset its coupon in December 2024 at a 2.48% spread to the 5 year Canadian government bond yield. Par value is C$25 and dividends are cumulative. The coupon is currently 3.91%.
D. Added to AEP - Bought 1 at $76.06; 1 at $75.62:
Quote: American Electric Power Co.
Cost: $154.68
AEP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
AEP Key Metrics Page at Reuters
New Average cost per share: $76.89 (5 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.88 per share ($3.52 annually)
Yield at New AC = 4.578%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/8/24 (owned 3 as of)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Restarted AEP - Bought 1 at $78.41; 1 at $77.38; 1 at $76.98 (1/26/24 Post) I discussed the 2023 third quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release; 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23
Last Elimination: Item # 2.A. Eliminated AEP - Sold 3 at $95.5 (4/14/22 Post)
The next earnings report is scheduled for release on 2/27/24.
E. Added 1 HIW at $22.97:
Quote: Highwoods Properties Inc. (HIW) - An Office REIT HIW SEC Filings
Website: Highwoods
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Added to HIW - Bought 1 at $18.13; 1 at $17.93; 3 at $17.74 (12/2/23 Post) I discussed the 2023 third quarter report in that post. HIW Announces Third-Quarter 2023 Results.pdf
Last Elimination: Item # 1.I. Eliminated HIW - Sold 7 at $47.22 (2/3/22 Post)
Management: Internal
New Average cost per share: $23.74 (55+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.50
Yield at New AC = 8.42%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/16/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23):
HIW Announces 2023 Fourth Quarter Results.pdf and Supplemental.pdf
GAAP E.P.S. = $.36
FFO per share = $.99, up from $.96 in the 2022 4th quarter.
E.P.S. $1.08, up from $1.05 in the 2022 4th quarter. Earnings are weather related and the 4th quarter will be best one.
Revenues: $504.438M, up from $496.773M
Guides 2024 E.P.S. to $2.36-$2.562023 FFO per share = $3.83, down from $4.03 in 2022
2024 Guidance: FFO per share $3.46 to 3.64.
Items Included and Excluded in FFO Calculation:
The gain on property sales is the only exclusion.
In determining cash available for distribution, the pretend rental cash created by the straight line accounting method, amounting to $.032 per share would be excluded, as would maintenance expenditures which is not shown in the previous snapshot. I could not find adequate disclosure information on those expenditures. My best guess is that the dividend is currently covered by cash available for distribution per share given the percentage spread between the quarterly rate of $.50 and the FFO per share numbers.
Occupancy: 88.8%
F. Added 1 EQR at $57.41:
Quote: Equity Residential (EQR)
"The Company, a member of the S&P 500, is focused on the acquisition, development and management of residential properties located in and around dynamic cities that attract affluent long-term renters. Equity Residential owns or has investments in 302 properties consisting of 80,191 apartment units, with an established presence in Boston, New York, Washington, D.C., Seattle, San Francisco and Southern California, and an expanding presence in Denver, Atlanta, Dallas/Ft. Worth and Austin."
Website: Home | EquityApartments.com
Corporate Profile | Equity Residential
New Average cost per share: $59.52 (7 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.6625 per share ($2.65 annually), last raised from $.625 effective for the 2023 second quarter payment.
Yield at New AC = 4.45%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/29/23
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Bought 1 at $59.82; 1 at $59.55; 1 at $59.2; 1 at $58.75 (2/2/24 Post)
I discussed the 2023 third quarter report here: Item # 3.A. Started EQR - Bought 2 at $60.97 (12/23/23 Post); SEC Filing
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23)
E.P.S. $.82
Normalized FFO per share = $1, up from $.94 in the 2022 4th quarter
GAAP Net Income to FFO Reconciliation:
"Same Store" Occupancy: 95.8%
2024 Guidance: FFO $3.74 to $3.84; Normalized FFO $3.8 to $3.9
G. Added 10 ARC at $2.68; 20 at $2.63:
Cost: $79.4
ARC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
ARC 10 - Q for the Q/E 9/30/23
Website: ARC High Quality Reprographics And Color Printing Services In USA
Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 4.B. Bought 20 ARC at $3.24 (12/30/23 Post) I discussed the 2023 third quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
New Average cost per share: $2.88 (50 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.05 per share, last raised from $.02 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment.
Yield at $3.05: 6.94%
Last Ex Dividend: 1/30/24
The 2023 4th quarter report is scheduled for release on 2/28/24.
H. Added 1 AVA at $32.28:
AVA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
A Canadian utility, Hydro One Ltd. (H:CA), attempted to acquire Avista but the acquisition was blocked by regulators. Hydro One and Avista Mutually Agree to Terminate Merger Agreement (1/23/2019). I have owned Hydro One in the past. The acquisition was at US$53 per share in cash. SEC Filed Press Release (7/19/17)
Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Started AVA - Bought 5 at $33.36 (11/18/23 Post)
New Average cost per share: $33.16 (6 shares)
Dividend: $.48 per share ($1.92 annually)
Yield at New AC = 5.79%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/22/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23):
E.P.S. $1.08, up from $1.05 in the 2022 4th quarter. Earnings are weather related and the 4th quarter will be best one.
Revenues: $504.438M, up from $496.773M
Guides 2024 E.P.S. to $2.36-$2.562023 FFO per share = $3.83, down from $4.03 in 2022
2. Small Ball Sells:
I am continuing to reduce my exposure to regional bank stocks. The primary reasons are year-over-year declines in earnings per shares and net interest margins. A major secondary reason is loan exposure to commercial properties, particularly to office buildings.
A. Pared STAG - Sold 10 at $38.99:
Quote: STAG Industrial Inc. (STAG) - Internally Managed Industrial REIT
Proceeds: $389.95
I view the stock as being slightly overvalued at the current price. Other factors justifying IMO the pare are slow dividend growth, risk reduction through profit harvesting, and the percentage unrealized gain based on my average cost per share. Risk reduction and mitigation are major objectives in my portfolio management strategy.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Home Page | STAG Industrial
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2. Added to STAG in IB Account-Bought 50 at $17.55-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 1/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Profit Snapshot: +$249.22
Last Discussed: Item # 4.A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in STAG - Sold 50 at $37.22 (9/16/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,075.13) This is my largest gain to date.
I discussed the 2023 second quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2. Added to STAG in IB Account-Bought 50 at $17.55-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 1/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
New Average Cost per share: $17.56 (90+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 2/16/24 after pare |
Dividend: Monthly at $.1233 ($1.4796 annually), last raised from $.1225. I do not consider that to be a dividend raise.
STAG Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
The monthly rate was $.11 in 2014.
Yield at New AC using $1.48 annual payment: 8.43%
Next Ex Dividend: 2/28/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Diluted Core FFO $108.538M or $.58 per share:
Cash Available for Distribution $87.168M or $.47 per share.
Dividends for 3 months: $.37
Weighted Average Diluted Shares: 185.374M
Occupancy at 98.2%
Net Income to CAD Calculation:
I just checked the CAD per share number for 2018 4th quarter. CAD was reported at $50.157M or $.4356 per share on 115.146M shares. SEC Filed Press Release The five year increase in CAD per share to the 2023 4th quarter was 7.9% with diluted shares increasing by 60.8%.
At least the CAD per share number is increasing. I have discussed several medical office REITs that have been unable to increase CAD per share over longer periods of time. Over the past year or so, their stock prices have been crushed based IMO on a realization that their managers have overpaid for properties, a problem that has become more important with the increases in financing costs.
Some Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.G. - Sold 4 STAG at $33 (4/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.49); Item # 7-Pared STAG Sold 42 at $25.2: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 7/28/16 | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $271.32); Item # 2. Pared STAG-Sold 54 Shares at $23.81: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 7/1/16- South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $318.54); Item # 2. Pared STAG -Sold 50 of 240 at $22.74: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 6/24/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha(profit snapshot = $48.31); Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 3/21/16 - Item # 2. Sold 133 STAG at $19.61 | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $125.27).
STAG Realized Gains to Date: +$2,165.11
B. Eliminated PRU - Sold 5 on Ex Dividend Date at $107.88 (Vanguard Taxable Account):
Quote: Prudential Financial Inc.
Proceeds: $539.38
Prudential Financial Investor Relations
Profit Snapshot: +$223.42
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Eliminated PRU in Two Taxable Accounts - Sold 2 at $98.92; 2 at $98.95 (3/6/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $146.38); Item # 2.B. Pared PRU in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 2 at $108.34 (6/25/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $89.04)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.G. Bought 1 PRU at $61.3 (11/21/20 Post); Item # 4.H. Started PRU-Bought 5 at $63.8; 1 at $63.2 (8/29/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.30 per share, last raised from $1.25 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
Prudential Financial, Inc.-Dividends
Last Ex Dividend: 2/16/24 (owned as of, sold on the ex dividend date)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23):
SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
GAAP E.P.S. $3.61
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $2.58
"Net income attributable to Prudential Financial, Inc. was $1.317 billion ($3.61 per Common share) for the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to a net loss of $52 million ($0.16 per Common share) for the fourth quarter of 2022. After-tax adjusted operating income was $943 million ($2.58 per Common share) for the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to $932 million ($2.49 per Common share) for the fourth quarter of 2022."
The adjustments to GAAP net income were numerous as usual:
C. Eliminated FITB - Sold 10 at $34:
Quote: Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Proceeds: $340
FITB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: +$187.2
Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. Pared FITB - Sold 2 at $39.55 (9/24/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $39.91)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23): SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Earnings Presentation (a slide presentation that accompanies an earnings call)
Comparisons are to the 2022 4th quarter report.
E.P.S. = $.72, down from $1.01
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.99
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation:
NIM: 2.85%, down from 3.35%
Charge off ratio: .32%, up from .22%
NPA Ratio: .59%, up from .44%
Tangible Book Value per share: $17.64, up from $14.83
The efficiency ratio, ROA, and ROE were negatively impacted by the special items.
FITB Realized Gains to Date: $1,347.19
The two largest gains were taken in 2017. Item # 2.A. Sold 50 FITB at $24.57 (7/3/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $443.21); Item # 2.C. Sold 50+ FITB at $27.53 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $481.05)
D. Eliminated VTRS - Sold 52+ at $13 and 82+ at $13.31:
Proceeds: +$1,788.97
Website: Viatris | Global Healthcare Company
VTRS is a generic drug manufacturer.
VTRS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshots: Net of +$119.55
 |
| 52+ Shares Net of $47.85 |
 |
| 82+ Shares +$71.59 |
I discuss my approach to buying corporate bonds in this video: Treasury Bills Signals On FF Rate Changes and Corporate Bond Buying Approach - YouTube
A. Bought 2 General Motors Financial 4% SU Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total Cost of 98.7:
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Issuer: Subsidiary of General Motors Co. (GM)
GM SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23
GM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.473%
Current Yield at TC = 4.05%
B. Bought 2 Dominion Energy 3.3% SU Maturing on 3/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.801:
%203.3%25%203:15:25.png)
Issuer: Dominion Energy Inc. (D)
Dominion is a large utility holding company whose subsidiaries operate primary in Virginia and South Carolina.
D Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Dominion Energy Profile Page at Reuters
I have a small ball position in the beaten up stock.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.414%
Current Yield at TC = 3.37%
C. Bought 1 Vodafone 4.125% SU Maturing on 4/30/25 at a Total Cost of 98.49:
%204.125%25%205:30:25.png)
Issuer: Vodafone Group PLC ADR (VOD)
VOD Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
VOD SEC Filings (foreign company forms)
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.345%
Current Yield at TC = 4.188%
D. Bought 1 Laboratory Corporation 3.6% SU Maturing on 2/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.35:
%203.6%25%202:1:25.png)
Issuer: Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings (LH)
LH Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
LH SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.413%
Current Yield at TC = 3.66%
E. Bought 1 Black Hills 3.95% SU Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.346:
%201:15:2026%203.95%25%20.png)
Issuer: Black Hills Corp. (BKH) - Utility Holding Company
BKH Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.494%
Current Yield at TC = 4.058%
I have a small ball position in the common stock that I recently restarted.
I now own 6 bonds.
Last Bond Offering (9/2023): Prospectus ($450M 6.15% SU Maturing in 2034)
F. Bought 2 Autozone 3.25% SU Maturing on 4/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.697:
%203.25%25%204:15:25.png)
Issuer: AutoZone Inc. (AZO)
AZO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the F/Q ending 11/18/23
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.342%
Current Yield at TC = 3.3266%
I now own 4 bonds.
G. Bought 1 Boston Properties Partnership 3.2% SU Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.949:
%201:1:5:2025%203.2%25%20%20.png)
Issuer: Operating subsidiary of Boston Properties Inc. (BXP)
BXP SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 12/31/23 At least as of 12/31/23, I do have a credit risk concern for bonds that mature in 2025.
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.578%
Current Yield at TC = 3.267%
I now own 4 bonds.
I had two BXP bonds mature on 2/1/2024:
%20$19.74.png){kind=small}
I owned 5 BXP bonds that matured on 9/1/2023.
%20+$11.15%20RI%20.png)
%20+$1.37%20RI%20.png){kind=small}
%20+$26.06.png){kind=small}
4. U.S. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 2/20/24 Auction:
%205:23:24.png){kind=small}
Matures on 5/23/24:
Interest: +$66.1
Investment Rate: 5.388%
B. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 2/20/24 Auction:
%208:22:24%20.png){kind=small}
182 Day Bill
Matures on 8/22/24
Interest: $51.57
Investment Rate: 5.322%
C. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 2/20/24 Auction:
%202:20:25%20.png)
1 Year T Bill
364 Day Bill
Matures on 2/20/25
Interest: $94.74
Investment Rate: 4.95%
D. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 2/21/24 Auction:
E. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 2/22/24 Auction:
56 Day Bill
Matures on 4/23/24
Interest: $41.03
Investment Rate: 5.407%
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I haven't been online much. Wound up having surgery on Monday only 10 days after appt for a 2nd opinion on the clogged eye ducts. So it wasn't emergency but I took a last min opening. It's going to take awhile to recover.
ReplyDeleteI haven't been in the local CVS in a while since other pharms are less of a zoo. There's empty shelves, no distilled water, fewer selections. I don't know if it's the theft problem I've read about in DC and SF and in between. Or poor management locally.
....Or the economy isn't as robust as it appears. A lot of stores are cutting back hours too. Lowes went from 10 to 9pm closing. Homegoods from 10 to 9:30pm. Big lots too. Five Below is closing at 8pm. Can't tell if it's specific to each of their businesses, or a trend in the economy.
This rally's been something else. Since Nov, I'm up 100k. Wish I was much more invested. I'm about 1/3-1/2 in. Even before Nov, there was quite a rise too. It feels like break out rather than a blow off top. So I've been staying in. My underwater stocks haven't been climbing much to be the obvious places to sell. I'm wondering if I want to sell a little off the top. I've had quite a bit in small caps/IWM and similar.
LAND: Blocked tear ducts is one of the many issues that aging can cause. While I do not understand the reasoning, women over 40 are more likely to experience it.
DeleteThis rally is AI euphoria. Nvidia added about $273 billion to its market cap yesterday. That is by the way more than the total capitalization of the Israel, Turkey, Philippines, Chile or Poland stock markets.
With interest rates continuing the upward trajectory, the bond like stock sectors are not participating in the rally.
So now I know when it says it's posting to google account but doesn't sign me in, it's posting anonymously.
DeleteAh yes, the dry eye with clogged ducts for women over 40. There's a $1000 in office treatment not covered by most insurances or medicare I was offered since i have a little of that. Instead a microwave heated bead mask 10 mins 2xs a day on advice of my optician did the trick. I even got the beaded mask on sale.
I forgot to say drainage ducts. A different problem, probably caused by the lymphoma. So tears went down my face instead of into the clogged lacrimal ducts. The surgery is to burrow into the nose bone and make a bypass 'highway' for drainage, a DCR surgery. To get at it, they had to correct the deviated septum. They can't unclog the originals because they swell up with scar tissue from the procedure thereby clogging them up. The tearing rolling out of the eyes has stopped so it may work, but it's 4 days and I can't think straight yet.
The AI rally is something else. I hadn't pieced together that it's Nivdia's AI chips causing the excitement. That's a huge capitalization. PE 66 trailing, 27 forward. That's not bad compared to where PEs for tech have been. The forward is an estimate on future earnings right, so it can easily be wrong and cause a pullback.
Deletehttps://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA&p=d
But this is more than the recent report but a rally that I noted from Nov 23 (as a random point meaningful to my networth). That's not all been AI? I thought it was largely the false idea that inflation was down and so the Fed would cut.
If rates pull back, that should also be good for stocks? Though some money will move to bonds and out of stocks.
Land: The forward P/E is generally based on the average non-GAAP E.P.S. estimate made by analysts for the next 4 quarters. That is not always the case and may not be for NVDA.
DeleteFor the last quarter, Nvidia reported a GAAP E.P.S. of $4.93 and non-GAAP at $5.16.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581024000028/q4fy24pr.htm
Most tech companies will have a much larger difference between those two numbers. Revenue exploded higher rising 265% compared to the year ago quarter.
2024 diluted GAAP E.P.S. was $11.93, up from $1.74 in 2022. So for those inclined to calculate P/E ratio based on trailing 12 month earnings, the P/E at last Friday's closing price of $788.17 is 66.07. So Finviz is using the GAAP number for the trailing P/E.
Non-GAAP 2022 E.PS was $3.34
Hum. lol. $3.34 vs $11.93 for calculation.
DeleteSo on non-GAAP 12mo trailing - PE 235.98.
I see.
Land: The $3.34 Non-GAAP was for 2022, which I needed to better define as for the fiscal year ending 1/28/23.
DeleteThat is not the trailing 12 month number.
When I referred to the 2024 GAAP E.P.S. of $11.93 , that was a fiscal year number for the period ending 1/28/24. That would be the trailing 12 month GAAP number. The trailing 12 month non-GAAP E.P.S. was $12.96 for the F/Y ending 1/28/24.
The current average E.P.S. estimate for the F/Y ending in January 2024 is $24.56, which is a high bar to hit and does leave the potential for disappointment.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda/analystestimates?mod=mw_quote_tab
Ok. Thanks! That makes more sense .
DeleteThe treasury will be auctioning next week the 2, 5 and 7 year notes.
ReplyDeleteThe 2 year treasury note yield is currently trading near 4.71%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd02y?countrycode=bx
The 2 year will be significantly influenced by expectations regarding the federal funds rate. I could only bring myself to place an order to buy 1. The 2 year yield has gone up by a significant percentage this month so far. The yield was at 4.2% on 2/1/24.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024
The 5 year treasury yield is currently trading near 4.28%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd05y?countrycode=bx
The 2 and 5 year note auctions will be on Monday. I also placed an order to buy the 6 month T bill at auction.
I think I want about 3- 3.5 year for a pocket of money. Some shorter that will rollover, especially that matures next year to put off taxes, so 1 to 18 mos. I'll stay in Vanguard for shorter term money.
DeleteLAND: The 2, 5 and 7 year treasury notes, which will be auctioned next week, make semiannual interest payments and have coupons. So all will make 1 interest payment this year. Generally, the treasury notes are sold at very slight discounts to par value and that discount is treated as Original Issue Discount interest.
DeleteTreasury bill maturities range from 1 month to 1 year and do not have coupons.
Most weeks now, I am participating in the 2 and 6 month bill auctions which occur on Monday, the 4 month bill auctions on Wednesdays and the 2 month bill auctioned on Thursday. The 1 month is also auctioned on Thursday but I am not buying those. Most brokers allow for automatic reinvestment as will the Treasury when purchased through a Treasury Direct account.
The interest on treasury bills is the difference between the discounted price and the par value at maturity. The 1 year treasury bill is auctioned monthly and it is sold at a discount to par value. I discussed buying 2 in Item #4.C. above
I am not willing to buy much since there is about a .4% hit to the yield by going from a 6 month to 1 year. That may end up being okay with two 25 basis points FED rate cuts in the summer but two six month bill purchases might come out ahead with only 1 cut before Fall.
One advantage of treasury bills is that the state governments can not tax the interest which needs to be taken into account when comparing alternatives for investors living in a state that would tax the interest paid by alternatives to treasury interest payments (e.g. CDs or corporate bond interest payments).
If not sold prior to maturity, treasury bill interest payments are taxed in the year that the bill matures. So a 6 month bill bought in July would mature in January 2025 and the interest would be taxable in that year.
Delaying the tax bill until the next year may work when there will be less taxable income in the following year than in the current one.
Thanks for all the details!
DeleteIs there any realistic chance that rates will go up from here and last?
DeleteIf not, then buying to fix this rate is as good a time as any even if it takes a while to go down some.
Land: When predicting the future, it is only possible to make probability assessments based on what is known now.
Delete(1) The FED has ended its Jihad against Savers and consequently it is no longer buying treasuries and mortgage backed securities.
(2) The treasury will need to issue trillions in new treasury paper to finance the federal government's budget deficits in the coming years.
Those two factors will place upside pressure on rates and has the potential of untethering interest rates from inflation expectations, with the main consideration being supply gradually overwhelming demand. This will be a multi-year process.
Over the short term, inflation expectations for the next decade, as reflected in the breakeven inflation rate for the 10 year TIP, is benign and is holding steady near a 2.3% annual average inflation rate over that period. That would normally keep the 10 year yield, assuming no major supply/demand issue, in the 4% to 4.5% range.
Inflation is coming down and is currently supportive over the short term at least of rates remaining stable at current levels or drifting down some, assuming no significant and lasting acceleration in PCE price inflation.
Putting all of that together, I am not going out far in years since I anticipate a transition to a long period where U.S. interest rates are determined more on a growing supply/demand imbalance than on inflation expectations which may eventually become, possibly within 20 years, almost irrelevant to the level of U.S. interest rates.
Thank you! You've pieced it together so clearly. I don't seem to have the skill to even figure out the factors. But at least I know to ask...
DeleteI haven't wanted to go out past about 2 to 2 1/2 years. Maybe some at 3. This explains why.
Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX)
ReplyDelete$81.30 $42.82 +111.29%
Last Updated: Feb 27, 2024 at 1:26 p.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vktx?mod=search_symbol
I wonder whether I can undo my earlier sell transaction claiming that I was not compos mentis which some Trumpsters have claimed in comments to my YouTube videos.
Viking reported positive results for its weight loss drug:
https://ir.vikingtherapeutics.com/2024-02-27-Viking-Therapeutics-Announces-Positive-Top-Line-Results-from-Phase-2-VENTURE-Trial-of-Dual-GLP-1-GIP-Receptor-Agonist-VK2735-in-Patients-with-Obesity
I still own shares in Ligand that is popping today as well:
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$ 91.06 +$16.64 +22.36%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lgnd?mod=search_symbol
Ligand reported its 4th quarter results today:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886163/000088616324000005/q42023earningsrelease_ex991.htm
Ligand has licensed to Viking "VK2809, a novel liver-selective thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist, in patients with biopsy-confirmed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)."
As of 9/30/23, Ligand owned 2.2M Viking shares after selling 4.5M shares earlier in 2023 for a $37.2M gain:
Pages 14 and 32:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886163/000088616323000086/lgnd-20230930.htm
Page 32 contains a summary of the license terms which are generally up to $350M in milestone payments and tiered royalties on sales.
VK2809 is a different compound from the obesity VK2375 which was internally developed by Viking.
The trial today may be giving investors more confidence that the NASH trials will be successful.
VK2375 is a "dual agonist of the glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptors"
VK2808, licensed from Ligand, is an "orally available small molecule thyroid hormone receptor agonist that possesses selectivity for liver tissue, as well as the beta receptor subtype, suggesting promise for the treatment of metabolic disorders, including non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)."
Trials of VK2809 have been promising so far:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/viking-therapeutics-presents-new-data-from-phase-2b-voyage-study-of-vk2809-in-patients-with-biopsy-confirmed-non-alcoholic-steatohepatitis-nash-at-the-liver-meeting-2023-301986439.html
111% sigh - would have been nice to have kept. 22% is a nice # too.
DeleteTrumpers have found your videos and commented?... I'm always surprised at how much energy they have for harassing.
Land: I sold 30 shares of VKTX at $22.84 on 5/15/23, realizing a $551.7 gain.
DeleteItem # 1.A. Eliminated VKTX - Sold 30 at $22.84:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2023/05/bbdc-botz-brkl-cfg-fhb-fhnpre-hbnc-jqc.html
I would have to say that I do not fully comprehend the justification for the stock move based on the weight loss drug announcement which was consistent with earlier trials when the stock price was meandering in the $10 to $20 range and there are two major drug companies that have weight loss drugs already approved by the FDA. Still, I would have preferred to sell VKTX at $90. The 52 week high was at $93.3 with the 52 week low at $8.28. The stock retreated some after VKTX announced that it had offered over 6.4M shares at $85.
I am going to publish a video about comments left by Trump supporters later today. I am not saying that they are stupid and ignorant people, but only that their comments do not reveal an intelligent life form making them.
Part of the challenge with lottery tickets is guessing when to sell... and how the market will react to news. I'd think 2 already approved would have dampened the enthusiasm.
DeleteLol, should be a fun video.
Land: For the VKTX shares that I sold in 2023, my average cost per share was $4.65 so I did spot the potential early.
DeleteI have no medical knowledge and select biotech lottery tickets based entirely on hunches that have no recognizable medical or scientific knowledge justifying them.
LGND, which I still own, sold 5 million of its VKTK shares last year, recognizing a profit of $44.4:
P. 87 Annual Report
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886163/000088616324000009/lgnd-20231231.htm
If LGND had waited to sell those 5M shares at yesterday's closing price the proceeds would have been $426,100,000. And LGND has people that actually have medical and scientific knowledge. The market cap of LGND was at 1.47B as of last Friday's closing price.
Based on the 10-K disclosure, LGND still owned 1.7M shares in VKTX as of 12/31/23, down from 2.2M as disclosed in the 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23 which I previously mentioned. I suspect that those remaining shares have now been sold.
LGND rallied on the same day as VKTX but that was probably based on a mistake that it had license the weight loss compound to VKTX, which was an error as I pointed out.
VKTX had licensed several other compounds from LGND with the NASH VK-2809 being the one furthest along in trials. That could be a major winner for both companies:
https://vikingtherapeutics.com/pipeline/metabolic-disease-program/vk2809/
Page 11 of the LGND 10-K says its royalty rate for VK2809 is 3.5% to 7.5%.
LGND is primarily a drug discovery firm that receives milestone payments and royalties for licenses issued to companies that actually take on the financial risks of trials, manufacturing and marketing once a compound is approved. Its main product is Captisol, which it does not manufacture, is used by several drug manufacturers to optimize the stability and solubility of drugs. The primary use now is by Amgen in its cancer drug Kyprolis.
LGND's captisol sales increased substantially when Gilead used it with its Covid drug remdesivir but that use is no longer generating revenues (p. 71) The revenues for the Covid drug use was $88+M in 2022 and $140+M in 2021.
+++
I did publish a video on Trumpster and/or Russian Troll comments to my YouTube videos which I am doing to more fully utilize my idle hours in retirement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYqICrfTiwA
Those commenters have learned a lot from Donald. Trump does not bother to respond in an intelligent manner using facts to criticisms but resorts simply to name calling and juvenile smears of anyone making accurate, fact based criticisms of his words and actions. And his cult members follow that example when leaving comments to YouTube videos. They are incapable of providing a reasoned, intelligent and fact based rebuttal so idiotic and immature comments are their default reaction.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/03/ay-bnl-brt-btmd-cto-fcvsx-fsco-glad-krg.html