Trump: ‘I Run the Country and the World’ - The Atlantic
Dollar Value of Purchases Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills and Bonds: +$21,000 in principal amount
Common Stocks: +$2,128.95
There were no stock/stock fund sales for the W/E 5/4/25.
U.S. Equity Preferred Stock: +$70
I am timing a small reduction in my stock allocation when the VIX returns to below 20 movement, provided whatever I sell is at a higher price than on 2/19/25 when the S&P 500 hit its 52 week high at 6,147.53. The most likely reduction would be sell another 100 shares of the PRWCX mutual fund. T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund Overview (Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Sold 100 PRWCX at $34.98 (3/18/25 Post) That fund closed at $35.7 on 2/19/25.
VIX | Cboe Volatility Index Overview-MarketWatch The Vix closed today (5/2/25) at 22.68, down 1.92 or 7.8%. The intraday high in April was at 60.13 on 4/7/25.
SeekingAlpha Post Discussing the Vix Asset Allocation Model - Originally Published on 10/17/2014 This is a model based on historical patterns which may or may not repeat themselves in the future.
This is the Trigger Event VIX data:
While reducing my stock allocation after a Trigger Event when the VIX returns to below 20 is a suggestion in this Model, I am primarily using that marker as a restraint on selling when my stock allocation is already low.
+++
Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M04 Results 177,000 jobs added in April new but the February and March numbers were revised down by a combined 58,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. Average annual hourly wage growth was reported at 3.8% through April rising 6 cents or .2%. The annual wage growth through January 2025 was at 4.1%. Employment Situation News Release - 2025 M01 Results Federal government employment declined by 9,000 in April and is down 26,000 since January. The BLS noted that employees who are on paid leave or are receiving ongoing severance payments are counted as employed. Stock investors reacted to this blah report with jubilation, possibly due to the report failing to show much impact yet from the tariff war.
The employment report caused a significant change in the probability of a rate cut at the June meeting meeting compared to yesterday:
The odds for a 25 basis point cut on or before the July meeting closed at 80.5%. I will be buying $10K in the 3 month T Bill at next Monday's auction.
U.S. 3 Month Treasury Bill Overview | MarketWatch
China says it's evaluating the possibility of trade talks with the U.S. While considering the possibility of trade talks, China reiterated its request for the U.S. to remove all unilateral tariffs and that a failure to do so would indicate an outright lack of sincerity and compromise mutual trust. This change is better than no consideration being given to trade talks, but is not indicative yet that China is willing to de-escalate. I see no reason why China would agree to a U.S. proposal to de-escalate to 40%-50% mutual tariffs since tariffs at that level would almost have the same embargo impact as the current tariffs of 145% or higher imposed by the U.S. and 125% by China. Scott Bessent says US prioritizing trade deals with non-China countries (5/1/25)
Consumer outlook hits lowest since 2011 as tariff fears mount, Conference Board survey shows
Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
In its first estimate, the government reported last Wednesday that real GDP growth declined at an annualized rate of .3% in the 2025 first quarter.
Personal consumption expenditures increased by 1.8% down from 4% in the 2024 4th quarter. There was a substantial increase consumer purchases in March, particularly in high cost items in anticipation of price increases cause by the republican tariff taxes. Consumer spending soared in March as Americans tried to get ahead of tariffs Without that one time surge, consumer spending in the first quarter would have been much lower.
There was a surge in imports during the first quarter, as companies raced to beat the republican tariff taxes on imported products, and imports are a subtraction from GDP. When they are counted in inventory, then the negative impact is reversed.
Personal consumption expenditure inflation was reported at +3.6% in the first quarter, up from +2.4% in the last GDP report for the 2024 4th quarter. Core PCE inflation in the 2025 first quarter was reported at 3.5%, up from 2.6% in the 2024 4th quarter.
I am expecting personal consumption expenditures to be pressured down due in part to higher prices resulting from the republican tariff taxes, consumers front loading purchases in March that will reduce spending in subsequent quarters, the dive in consumer confidence and sentiment, and growing concerns among many consumers about losing their jobs.
U.S. economy went into reverse in the first quarter, new GDP data shows - CBS News
Trump blamed Biden for the GDP decline. Trump blames Biden 'overhang' after GDP shrinks in first quarter, says growth will 'take a while'
One year ago, when Biden was President, Trump claimed that he was responsible for the robust stock market gains. SPY, one of the S&P 500 ETFS, had a 24.89% return last year. SPY – Performance – SPDR® S&P 500® ETF | Morningstar
Republicans want their tariff taxes that are paid by U.S. consumers to remain hidden. Trump called Amazon's Jeff Bezos about tariff cost report Their Orwellian narrative is that those taxes are paid by foreign countries or are absorbed entirely by suppliers. Big Price Hikes Mean Americans Pay For Trump's Tariffs, Not China - YouTube
 |
| Thousands of Barrels Per Day |
++++
Read Trump’s ‘100 Days’ Interview Transcript | TIME Trump claims to have concluded 200 trade deals and will be finished in 3 or 4 weeks. He is 100% certain of that claim. The interview was conducted on 4/23.
Tariff war: China rejects Trump’s claim that Xi has called him by phone | CNN Trump made that claim during his Time magazine interview.
Trump Goes Off the Rails in WILD New Interview - YouTube
Temu halts shipments direct from China as de minimis tariff rule ends
Fact check: Debunking 100 Trump false claims from his first 100 days
Trump's False Claims about Gas, Egg Prices - FactCheck.org
Trump Axes Top Trade Official over Wedding Pic with Critic
How the Trump administration labeled students as criminals with no evidence
Judge says 2-year-old US citizen appears to have been deported with ‘no meaningful process’ - POLITICO; Trump Just Deported Another U.S. Citizen Child With Cancer; 3 children who are US citizens — including one with cancer — deported with their mothers to Honduras-CNN; ICE deported 3 children who are U.S. citizens, their families’ lawyers say | PBS News ("The 4-year-old — who is suffering from a rare form of cancer — and the 7-year-old were deported to Honduras within a day of being arrested with their mother") According to republicans, God chose Trump to engage in daily acts of cruelty as President.
US Citizen Told by Trump Administration to Self-Deport Amid Crackdown - Newsweek The U.S. citizen was an immigration attorney.
U.S. citizens getting self-deportation letters | FOX 7 Austin
MA immigration attorney told to self-deport – NBC Boston
Trump pressures journalist to accept doctored photo as real: ‘Why don’t you just say yes?-The Guardian Trump insisted that an obvious digitally altered photoshopped image of Kilmar Abrego Garcia's hand showed that he was an MS-13 member. The alternation, which Trump angrily insisted was real over and over again, has M-S-13 digitally added above Garcia's tattoos. Jimmy Kimmel made this joke about Trump's claim: "To everyone else, this looks like it was created in Microsoft Paint on a Tandy 1000 But to Donald Trump, this is irrefutable evidence."
Trump also claims that he could call El Salvador's President and secure Garcia's return but refuses to do so notwithstanding the Supreme Court's decision. Trump says he 'could' return Kilmar Ábrego García to US if he wanted to He has now admitted to defying the Supreme Court.
Tattoos on Abrego Garcia’s fingers are not proof he’s a member of MS-13, experts say | CNN Politics
MAGA-Friendly Website PublicSquare Backfires Trump supporting local businesses have identified themselves at this website. Some consumers are using this website to identify businesses to boycott.
'Trump 2028' apparel on sale at the Trump Organization's online store
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Corruption || Peter Zeihan - YouTube
Trump taunts Canadians on their election day - YouTube
National Climate Assessment: Trump administration dismisses all authors of major climate report
Donald Trump Demands Investigations Into Negative Approval Rating Polls - Newsweek Trump says the pollsters are "negative criminals". Perhaps a member of his cult can explain what that means.
How Trump's policies and Project 2025 proposals match up after first 100 days - CBS News
Why Trump Is Giving Putin Everything He Wants - The Atlantic
A Concerning Update to the Russian Reach Series || Peter Zeihan - YouTube Zeihan believes that Russia has already deeply penetrated the U.S. government.
Victoria Roshchyna: Body of Ukrainian journalist who died in Russian detention returned by Moscow with signs of torture | CNN Organs were removed.
Exodus at DOJ civil rights division as official says 'over 100' attorneys departed - ABC News Trump has changed the mission from protecting civil rights to taking them away.
Commonwealth's Attorney won't back down from investigating ICE action at Albemarle courthouse; ICE detains two at Albemarle Courthouse, sparks protests - YouTube The Trump U.S. Attorney will prosecute two bystanders who asked to see a warrant authorizing the arrests inside a courthouse. The alleged ICE agents were in plain clothes, refused to produce a warrant or a badge and took the two men away in a passenger vehicle.
Leaked Billionaire Group Chats Show The REAL Power Behind Trump - YouTube
President Trump signs order seeking to end federal funding for NPR and PBS | CNN Business This is just another unlawful action by our Dear Leader.
If Democrats regain control over the House after the 2026 midterm elections, Trump will be justifiably impeached for multiple offenses.
++++
1. Small Ball Stock Purchases:
A. Bought 50 PPBI at $20.83 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Pacific Premier Bancorp Inc (PPBI)
Cost: $1,041.5
I view COLB and PPBI to be undervalued at their respective closing prices on 4/25, assuming the U.S. economy has no more than a mild recession lasting two quarters within the next two years.
PPBI is in the process of being acquired by Columbia Banking System Inc. (COLB) in an all stock transaction.
Each PPBI share will be exchanged for .915 COLB. Columbia Banking System to Acquire Pacific Premier Bancorp (4/23/25).
I own 20+ COLB shares in this account with an average cost per share of $20.78. I view this acquisition as a positive for COLB. I also own 30 COLB shares in my Fidelity account with the AC at $21.12.
COLB closed at $22.63 on the day that I purchased the 50 PPBI shares and traded as high as $23.55.
COLB SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25:
1 Year COLB Chart as of 4/25:
I also would not expect PPBI to fall much in the event the merger falls through. The stock closed at $19.71 on 4/22, the day prior to the merger announcement and had hit a 52 week high at $30.28. The 52 week low was at $18.06 as of 4/22.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.33 per share ($1.32 annually)
Yield at $20.83: 6.337%
Next Ex Dividend: 5/5/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): If the acquisition is consummated, the earnings reports released prior thereto are only relevant as part of valuing COLB.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2024 first quarter.
E.P.S. $.37, down from $.49
NIM: 3.06%
Efficiency Ratio: 67.5%, up from 60.2%
NPL Ratio: .23%, down from .49%
NPA Ratio: .15%, down from .34%
Charge off Ratio: Zero
Tangible book value per share: $20.98, up from $20.33
Loan to Deposit Ratio: 82%
Non-interest bearing deposits to total deposits: 32.9%
Total Capital Ratio (holding company): 20.23%
B. Started DOC in Schwab Account - Bought 50 at $17.61:
Quote: Healthpeak Properties Inc. (DOC)
Cost: $880.25
Healthpeak Properties formerly traded under the PEAK symbol. After completing a major acquisition of Physicians Realty, which had the "DOC" stock symbol, Healthpeak changed its symbol to DOC. Healthpeak Properties, Inc. - Healthpeak Properties Closes Merger with Physicians Realty Trust (3/1/24).
Prior to this 50 share purchase, I bought and still own 10 shares of PEAK in my Fidelity account. Item # 1.J. Restarted PEAK - Bought 10 at $15.61 (4/4/23 Post)
Properties as of 3/31/25:
 |
| Dollars and Square Feet in Thousands |
Top 20 Tenants:
 |
| Square Feet in Thousands |
Lease Types: 80% triple net leased
 |
| Square Feet in Thousands |
Triple Net Lease (NNN): What It Means and How It's Used
Dividend: Monthly at $.1017 per share ($1.22 annually)
DOC Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
DOC recently changed from a quarterly dividend of $.305.
2024 Dividend Tax Classifications:
Yield at $17.61: 6.93%
Next Ex Dividend: 5/19/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
Revenues: $702.889M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.06
FFO per share as defined by NAREIT: $.45
FFO adjusted for items: $.46
AFFO per share (includes deductions from FFO for maintenance expenses on properties that are not subject to triple net lease and non-cash revenue created by the straight line accounting convention while adding non-cash compensation expenses)
GAAP to FFO as adjusted Reconciliation:
FFO as adjusted to AFFO Reconciliation:
2025 FFO and FFO as adjusted per share guidance: $1.81-$1.87
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.G. Eliminated PEAK - Sold 15 at $31.08 (3/6/2021 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.01).
I frequently traded Physicians Realty, realizing a total gain of $668.09. The largest gain was from a 100 share lot sold in 2015:
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (4/25/25): 5 stars with an estimated fair value of $27.5.
Argus (4/29/25): Buy with a $25 target price.
S&P (4/26/25): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $21, lowered from $25
Goal: With equity REIT stock purchases, the goal is simply to harvest the dividends and eventually exit the position at an annual profit of more than 2%, rising to 4% after two years and 6% after three years. So with a holding period of 3 years, I would need to realize a profit of at least $1.06 per share ($18.97+ exit price after 3 years) The primary purpose with equity REIT purchases is to generate current income with some capital appreciation being a secondary goal.
C. Added 5 BRT at $15.25:
Quote: BRT Apartments Corp. (BRT) - Internally Managed Apartment REIT
Cost: $76.25
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Properties | BRT Apartments | REIT
New Average cost per share: $15.59 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
BRT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $15.59: 6.414%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/27/24
I discussed this apartment REIT in my last post and have nothing further to add here: Item # 1.G. Restarted BRT-Bought 10 at $15.8; 5 at $15.5 (4/25/25 Post); SEC Filing
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: 5 or 10 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
D. Added 5 FLO at $17.4 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Flowers Foods Inc.
Cost: $87
Website: Home - Flowers Foods
FLO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report for the F/Y ending 12/28/24
New Average Cost per share: $18.59 (25 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually)
FLO Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 5.16%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/28/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/28/24): I discussed the last earnings report in a recent post: Item # 1.K. Bought 3 FLO at $18 (4/13/25 Post); Flowers Foods Reports Fourth Quarter Results
Other Recent News: Flowers Foods Completes Acquisition of Simple Mills Mills (2/21/25)-Flowers Foods to Acquire Simple Mills for $750M in Cash To pay for this acquisition, FLO sold $500M in 5.7% SU notes maturing in 2035 and $300M of SU notes maturing in 2055. Prospectus
Last Elimination: Item # 1.C. Eliminated FLO -Sold 20 at $28.3 (1/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $119.76)
E. Added 5 BBDC at $8.79 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Barings BDC Inc.
Recent History this Account:
I included my last 4 sales in this snapshot.
BBDC SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report (Summary of risk factors starts at page 33 and ends at page 68; summary of investments starts at page F-10)
5 year financial date:
 |
| Annual Report at page F-121 |
Investment Categories:
 |
| Annual Report at page 80 |
Company Risk Assessments:
 |
| Annual Report at pages 81-82 |
Nonaccrual Loans: Loans on nonaccrual status are discussed starting at page 82.
Company statement on nonaccrual loans: "As of December 31, 2024, we had
Company assessment on impacts of interest rates changes:
 |
| Pages 100-101, Annual Report |
Last Discussed: Item #1.K. Pared BBDC - Sold 10 at $10.76 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $18.97)
BDC stocks have been pressured down in price as investors become more concerned about a possible recession. Many of these companies have experienced an acceleration of non-performing loans over the past year, falling into ranges of 5% to 10% using total costs, when the economy was still in a growth mode. BBDC had a low level of non-performing loans as of 12/31/24 at 1.6% at total cost.
Another negative is that coupons of variable rate loans have reset at lower rates, and will continue to do so, due to the FED cuts in the FF range to date and cuts likely to happen based on probabilities reflected in federal funds futures contracts used by the CME FedWatch tool.
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.F. Added to BBDC in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 10 at $8.67 (12/9/23 Post); Item # 1.A. Added to BBDC - Bought 10 at $8.94 - Vanguard Account (11/25/23 Post); Item # 3.A. Added 40 BBDC at $7.75 - Vanguard Account (7/15/23 Post);Item # 2.F. Added 5 BBDC at $7.21 - Vanguard Account (5/20/23 Post); Item # 2.K. Added 5 BBDC at $7.65 - Vanguard Account (3/19/23 Post)
New average cost per share: $8.12 (28+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 4/29/25 after add |
Regular Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share ($1.04 annually)
BBDC Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Special Dividends:
$.05 per share that went ex dividend on 3/5/25
$.05 per shared declared with an ex dividend on 6/4/25
$.05 per share declared with an ex dividend on 9/3/25
Yield at $8.12: 12.81% (regular dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend: 3/5/25 (regular of $.26 and $.05 special)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24):
Net Investment Income per share: $.28
Weighted Average Yield of performing investments: 10.2%
Net asset value per share: $11.29
Goal: As with all BDCs, the goal is simply to earn any total return in excess of the dividend payments.
BBDC Net Realized Gains to Date: $78.5 with 1 realized loss of $5.11.
Most of the gain was in these 2025 transactions in my Fidelity Account:
2. Corporate Bonds- $16,000 in principal amount:
I purchased another $11K in principal amount that I will discuss in my next post.
I am lengthening the duration of my bond portfolio by buying more investment grade corporate bonds that mature in 2033 and later, primarily first mortgage bonds issued by electric utility companies.
Given my heavy weighting in short term bonds, treasury bills, short term treasury notes and CDs, with a constant weekly flow of maturing securities, I am not concerned about taking on more interest rate risk in exchange for higher current yields and yields-to-maturity. I can hold all bonds to maturity. Consequently, the interest rate risk that I am assuming is the risk of lost opportunity, simply defined as losing the opportunity to invest the funds tied up in owned bonds at higher yields resulting from a rise in interest rates after their purchase.
When I go 5 or more years out in maturity, I will consider selling the bond when and if a realized gain would be more than 1 year of interest payments.
When interest rates are declining, a make whole provision penalizes an early call by requiring a premium payment to par value and consequently a bond's price can rise above par value.
**
Dollar General called early its 4.15% SU that would have matured on 11/1/2025:
While this bond was subject to a make whole redemption prior to 8/1/25, Prospectus, the yield for treasuries maturing on 11/1/25 was sufficiently high, compared to the 4.15% coupon, that no make whole payment was required to redeem this bond.
To replace this bond, I will need the 4.125% SU maturing on 5/1/28 to have at a minimum a 4.8% YTM, preferably over 5%. That bond is currently trading closer to a 4.6% YTM.
Last DG Bond Offering (6/23): Prospectus
++
Fidelity Account: Bond Redemptions on 5/1/25:
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4 Healthcare Trust 3.5% SU Maturing on 8/1/26 (bought 2017 and 2022); Bond Page | FINRA.org
4 Healthcare Trust 3.76% SU Maturing on 7/1/27 (bought 12/24 and 1/25); Bond Page | FINRA.org
4 Healthcare Trust 3.625% SU Maturing on 1/15/28 (bought 2/25 and 3/25); Bond Page | FINRA.org
++
Interactive Brokers Account - Bond Redemptions on 5/1/25:
The 3.7% coupon SU was issued by Whirlpool (WHR) whose bonds are currently trading at yields consistent with a junk bond rating. Moody's downgraded its rating to Ba1 from Baa3 on on 4/29/25 and maintained a negative outlook. Whirlpool’s unsecured rating downgraded by Moody’s, outlook stays negative- Investing.com S&P and Fitch still have BBB- ratings with negative outlooks. Fitch Downgrades Whirlpool's IDR to 'BBB-'; Outlook Negative (11/1/24). I currently own 2 WHR SU bonds that mature in 2029 and will not be buying more.
The 4.7% coupon SU was issued by Marathon Petroleum (MPC). I do not currently own any bonds from this issuer.
+++
A. Bought 2 Duke Energy Carolinas 5.3% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 2/15/2040 at a Total Cost of 98.165 - Vanguard Account:
%202:15:40.png)
Issuer: Wholly own subsidiary of the utility holding company Duke Energy Corp. (DUK)
"Duke Energy Carolinas is a regulated public utility primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity in portions of North Carolina and South Carolina. Duke Energy Carolinas’ service area covers approximately 24,000 square miles and supplies electric service to approximately 2.9 million residential, commercial and industrial customers." DUK 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report at page 21 Owned generation is listed at page 34 and includes 3 nuclear plants. 2024 net income reported by Duke Energy Carolinas was $1.883B on $9.718B in revenues (p.50)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Rating: Aa3/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.482%
Current Yield at TC = 5.4%
The prospectus is dated in 2009, and the SEC no longer provides access that far back in time.
Last FM Bond issuance: Prospectus
B. Bought 2 Ryder Systems 4.3% SU Maturing on 6/15/27 at a Total Cost of 99.059 - Vanguard Account:
%204.3%25%206:15:27.png)
Issuer: Ryder System Inc. (R)
R Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Ryder SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.765%
On the day of purchase, the two year treasury note closed at 3.81%:
Source: 2025 Yield Curve Data - U.S. Department of the Treasury
Current Yield at TC = 4.34%
I own 2 Ryder System 4.65% SU bonds that mature on 6/1/25 and 4 Ryder 3.35% SU bonds maturing on 9/1/25. I am replacing the 2 that will mature on 6/1/25 with this purchase.
Last Bond Offering (2/25): Prospectus for $300M 5% SU maturing in 2030
C. Bought 2 Fairfax Financial 4.625% SU Maturing on 4/29/30 at a Total Cost of 97.712 - Vanguard Account:
Issuer Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (Canada: Toronto)
Website: Homepage - Fairfax Financial
Financial Results for the Year Ended December 31, 2024
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings:Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.149%
Current Yield at TC = 4.733%
This is my first corporate bond purchase with a 2030 maturity. I own several municipal bonds and TIPs that mature that year.
Other SU Bonds: I own 2 Fairfax Financial 4.85% SU bonds that mature on 4/17/28. Bond Page | FINRA.org. I did not discuss that purchase:
%204.85%25%204:17:28%20.png)
Fairfax Reset Equity Preferred Stock: I have traded several Fairfax Financial reset equity preferred stocks on the Toronto exchange.
Last Elimination: Item # 5.A. Eliminated FFHPRD - Sold 100 at C$22.2 (9/19/24 Post)(profit snapshot = C$559) That post contains snapshots of other Fairfax preferred sell discussions. The total realized gains in its preferred stocks currently stands at +C$2,374.
I do not currently own any Fairfax preferred stocks. I have switched to owning only its SU notes.
D. Bought 2 Healthpeak OP 5.375% SU Maturing on 2/15/35 at a Total Cost of 99.182 - Vanguard Account:
%205.375%25%202:15:35.png)
Issuer: Operating entity for Healthpeak Properties Inc. (DOC), who guarantees the notes.
I discussed buying 50 DOC shares in Item #1.B. above.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25 and Supplemental
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.483%
Current Yield at TC: 5.419%
E. Bought 2 WP Carey 5.375% SU Maturing on 6/30/34 at a Total Cost of 98:
%205.375%25%206:30:24%20.png)
Issuer: W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC)
WPC SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25 and SEC Filed Supplemental
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.671%
Current Yield at TC = 5.485%
I own 6 WP Carey 4.25% SU bonds that mature on 10/1/26. Bond Page | FINRA.org
I owned 10 WP Carey 4% SU that matured on 2/1/25.
F. Bought 1 Dominion Energy 5.25% SU Maturing on 8/1/33 at a Total Cost of 99.363:
%205.25%25%208:1:33.png)
Issuer: Dominion Energy Inc. (D) - Utility Holding Company
Dominion Energy Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
Fitch Rates Dominion Energy's Senior Notes BBB+ (3/6/25)
YTM at Total Cost: 5.345%
Current Yield at TC: 5.284%
Last Bond Offering (3/25): Prospectus
G. Bought 2 Kinder Morgan 5.2% SU Maturing on 6/1/33 at a Total Cost of 98.656 - Vanguard Account:
.png)
Issuer: Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) - Energy Infrastructure
I have a position in the common stock.
Last KMI Discussion: Item # 2.A. Pared KMI Again - Sold 10 at $29.7 (1/22/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $157.63).
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.407%
Current Yield at TC = 5.271%
Last Bond Offering (4/25): Prospectus
H. Bought 2 Virginia Electric & Power 5.15% SU Maturing on 3/15/35 at a Total Cost of 99.178:
%205.15%25%203:15:35.png)
Issuer: Operating utility wholly owned by the utility holding company Dominion Energy Inc. (D).
In my last post I discussed buying 2 Virginia Electric SU maturing in 2033 and 2 Virginia Electric SU maturing in 2034. I have now completed a maturing in the 2033-2035 time range. In addition to those bonds, I own 2 that mature on 1/15/26 and 2 maturing on 3/15/27.
2024 SEC Filed Annual Report Virginia Electric's financial data starts at page 99.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.257%
Current Yield at TC: 5.193%
I. Bought 1 San Diego Electric and Gas 5.35% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 5/15/35 at a Total Cost of 99.065:
%205.35%25.png)
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of the utility holding company Sempra (SRE)
SRE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
First lien with exceptions described at page 19.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A1/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.472%
Current Yield at TC: 5.4%
Last Bond Offering (3/25): Prospectus for 5.4% First Mortgage bonds maturing in 2035.
With this purchase, I now own 12 corporate bonds and 10 municipal bonds maturing in 2035. For 2025 maturities, I will generally own more than $100K that will mature each month. Those are relevant numbers on the interest rate risk issue discussed in the introduction to this section.
3. Treasury Bills:
I am now alternating between buying $5K and $10K in treasury bills each week.
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 4/28/25 Auction:
91 Day Bill
Matures on 7/31/25
Interest: $53.08
Investment Rate: 4.304%
4. U.S. Equity Preferred Stock:
A. Added 5 NHPAP at $14 - Schwab Account:
Quote: National Healthcare Properties Inc. 7.375% Cumulative Preferred Series A Stock (NHPAP)
This is a private REIT that will file financial reports with the SEC since it has issued two publicly traded preferred stocks.
The REIT was formerly known as Healthcare Trust, Inc. The preferred stock NHPAP formerly traded under the HTIA symbol.
Website: National Healthcare Properties, Inc.
Properties as of 12/31/24:
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| Annual Report at page 5 |
3 Years Financials:
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Added 5 HTIA at $14.5; 5 at $14.15 (12/26/24 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 5.A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in HTIA -Sold 20 at $17 in Schwab Account (1/6/24 Post)(profit snapshot =$45.87)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 7.375%
Average cost per share this account: $14.29 (30 shares)
Yield at $14.29: 12.9% (reflects a consensus investor opinion about credit risk)
Calculation: .07375% x $25 par value = $1.84375 annual dividend per share ÷ $14.29 = 12.9024%.
Last Ex Dividend: 4/4/25
All of the 2024 dividends were classified as ROC.
I classify this preferred stock as high risk for a preferred stock dividend deferral and that risk is reflected in the current high yield at $14 IMO. The question is how much of that risk is reflected in the current price.
The dividend is cumulative which means that any deferred dividend will have to be paid when and if the REIT uses cash to buy common stock or pays a cash dividend to the common shareholders.
Currently, there is no cash dividend being paid on the common shares, so there is no legal restraint on deferring payment of the preferred stock dividends. The REIT is not covering its preferred dividends (two separate preferred stocks) with funds from operations.
On a more positive note, this REIT recently underwent an internalization of management which I view as a positive since I have an extremely negative opinion about the former external manager and the internalization does make it more likely that another healthcare REIT will acquire National Healthcare, though I am not making a prediction on that possibility.
However, while internalization is a long term positive IMO, it is a short term negative in that this REIT paid $75M in cash and a promissory note in the principal amount of $30.3M.
This REIT declared quarterly dividends entirely in shares of its common stock starting in October 2020 until June 2024. The REIT did declare that it would no longer be paying a common dividend in stock, see page 29, 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24.
I have a lower cost position, close to $11, in my Fidelity account that I will liquidate when and if the price goes over $15.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I was hoping towards the end of last week, that the rally would continue so I would have a chance over the weekend (When I'd have more time) to work on a plan for when the Vix is under 20. (I've started, more work to do.)
ReplyDeleteThe rally held. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of down days before it finishes getting to Vixs under 20.
Also working on a buy list for when the Vixs goes back up based on various ideas here. Watching closing hour, CNBC, Reddit is way down but gave very strong results. Amazon is supposedly down too. They wouldn't be good in a preservation portfolio such as yours. But for long-term buys, I want to look at them. They'd go down more if the market does what I expect and collapses again after the recovery.
A weird thing is Walmart's PE is around 40. My Walmart's done well, makes me wonder if I should be selling. It seems ridiculously high for Walmart. Imagine it's up because of worries and The market heads for discount stores when economic stress is expected.
It is possible that after going into the unstable pattern, the Vix we'll go under 20, and stay under 20 for 3 months. And I will have missed out on the whole pull back.
Bloomberg guest was talking about that although there's plenty of recession indicators, there's still room to pull out and not wind up with a recession.
At any rate, I just need to build the plans for the different situations.
It's risky, but I'm thinking in the Roth, to sell quite a bit. I miss the chance to do it the first time.
For the first time I used Google sheets. There's a formula that will pull stock data somewhat live.
So you put in the symbol, and You can ask for price, PE, Open or close price, whole bunch of other stuff.
Also came across a free Monte Carlo simulator for retirement with a whole number of variables similar to the Monte Carlos produced in consults with financial advisors. Might be handy to somebody.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation#analysisResults
I was hoping towards the end of last week, that the rally would continue so I would have a chance over the weekend (When I'd have more time) to work on a plan for when the Vix is under 20. (I've started, more work to do.)
ReplyDeleteThe rally held. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of down days before it finishes getting to Vixs under 20.
Also working on a buy list for when the Vixs goes back up based on various ideas here. Watching closing hour, CNBC, Reddit is way down but gave very strong results. Amazon is supposedly down too. They wouldn't be good in a preservation portfolio such as yours. But for long-term buys, I want to look at them. They'd go down more if the market does what I expect and collapses again after the recovery.
A weird thing is Walmart's PE is around 40. My Walmart's done well, makes me wonder if I should be selling. It seems ridiculously high for Walmart. Imagine it's up because of worries and The market heads for discount stores when economic stress is expected.
It is possible that after going into the unstable pattern, the Vix we'll go under 20, and stay under 20 for 3 months. And I will have missed out on the whole pull back.
Bloomberg guest was talking about that although there's plenty of recession indicators, there's still room to pull out and not wind up with a recession.
At any rate, I just need to build the plans for the different situations.
It's risky, but I'm thinking in the Roth, to sell quite a bit. I miss the chance to do it the first time.
For the first time I used Google sheets. There's a formula that will pull stock data somewhat live.
So you put in the symbol, and You can ask for price, PE, Open or close price, whole bunch of other stuff.
Also came across a free Monte Carlo simulator for retirement with a whole number of variables similar to the Monte Carlos produced in consults with financial advisors. Might be handy to somebody.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation#analysisResults
Land: WMT is too expensive for me to buy. For the F/Y ending 1/31/25, diluted E.P.S. was reported at $2.41 and the fiscal 4th quarter was reported at $.65, down from $.68. Adjusted E.P.S. was reported at $2.51for the 2025 fiscal year. WMT guided F/Y 2026 to an adjusted E.P.S. of $2.5 to $2.6, close to flat with the prior fiscal year.
Deletehttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416925000010/earningsreleasefy25q4.htm
Taking the midpoint at $2.55 for the F/Y 2026 guidance, and last Friday's closing price of $98.75, the forward P/E using non-GAAP guidance is 38.73 and at 40.98 using trailing 12 month GAAP E.P.S. That is IMO an extremely excessive price IMO for a mega retailer with close to a $800B market cap that is not likely to grow earnings over the next 4 quarters and has a dividend yield of less than 1%. That is just the way I think about it.
The crude oil price is diving in response to OPEC increasing production. Bad for Russia, energy stocks, and good for U.S. consumers.
Investors are too optimistic now about the U.S. economy and are not factoring in at all the insanity discount inextricably tied to our Dear Leader.
I'm going to sell Walmart or most of it. But timing is the question.
DeleteAlso been doing calculations on my income for 2025. Will be over the threshold for grants for medicates. Selling what's cap gains or reg taxable equities, over the grant limits will cost me loss of about 7k in grant coverages. Plus opens me to needing insurance approvals which can be dicey. (That's taking that 2k cap into account.)
So I have room for 10k more interest and cap gains for rest of year so extrapolating using current interest rates, I'll be 8k over. I don't have enough in losses to harvest to counter it.
So not sure what is best.
I have enough in cash already that I can count most of this as longer term, at least 10 years for all.... 20 years horizon for most.
(In Roth I'll be selling.)
In general, valuations are still rich. And that insanity discount is ....looming.
DeleteThe investment rate for the 3 month T Bill auction held earlier today was 4.325%, which is not consistent with a Fed rate cut at the June meeting. The IR does reflect a small probability of a .25% FF rate cut at the July meeting but nowhere near the 74.8% probability of at least a 25 basis point in July used the CME FedWatch tool data as of 10.46 CDT today 5/5/25.
ReplyDeleteI bought 10 of the 91 day bill.
The 6 month T Bill auctioned today, maturing on 11/6/25 had a 4.234%, near the bottom of the current FF range of 4.25% - 4.5%. I view that IR as reflecting a less than 50% chance of a cut on or before the September meeting. The CME FedWatch tool, which uses the federal funds futures contract to create probabilities, has at least a 50 basis point at 82.5%.
I need to give some credence or consideration to the FedWatch Tool probabilities when making decisions on whether to lengthen my bond duration and become less reliant on treasury bills that may decline in yield soon.
Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI)
ReplyDelete$6.35 -$10.90 -63.16%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/codi
I discussed buying 5 shares of CODI at $16 in my 4/25/25 post.
Item # 1.B.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/04/aple-brkl-brt-codi-cpb-etw-flo-fhn-gty.html
When looking at this kind of decline, and without researching the reason, the most likely cause would be some major accounting problem, which is the case. The issue involves one of CODI's operating subsidiaries Lugano and this looks bad:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1345122/000134512625000021/pressreleaseofcodidated5725.htm
The CEO and founder resigned without a severance payment.
The problem involves irregularities in "non-CODI financing, accounting and inventory practices", which is vague with the actual impact on previously reported earnings and future profitability left to the investors' imagination dominated by the fear and flee response.
CODI provides financing to and owns about 60% of a company called Lugano (55% on a fully diluted basis), "a leading designer, manufacturer and marketer of high-end, one-of-a-kind jewelry sought after by some of the world’s most discerning clientele." The interest was acquired for $265.1M on 9/3/21.
Lugano is the most important CODI operating company based on revenues and previously reported profits.
The price decline is also caused by concerns about the intra-company loan to Lugano of $623.1M as of 12/31/24.
Page 104
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1345122/000134512625000015/codi-20241231.htm
A dividend slash or elimination is possible. I do not plan to any of my 35 common shares.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/05/acco-amcr-botz-cag-cpb-doc-hzo-qyld-ryld.html