Economy:
The ten year treasury yield is continuing its uptrend this morning.
U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note-MarketWatch: 4.637%, up .048% as of 9:15 CST. The continued rise in intermediate term interest rates is pressuring bond like stock sectors down.
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation November 2024-CNBC The month-to-month increases in both PCE inflation and core inflation were .1%, lower than .2% expected for both.
Personal Income and Outlays, November 2024 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Real Disposable Income: +.2%, down from +.5% in October
A Faster Convergence of Shelter Prices and Market Rent: Implications for Inflation - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston The owners equivalent component of both PCE inflation and CPI will be coming down in the months ahead.
The government released its third estimate of 3rd quarter real GDP growth last week. Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Third quarter real GDP growth was reported at a 3.1% annual increase, up from 2.8% in the second estimate. PCE inflation for the third quarter increased 1.5%. Personal consumption expenditures were reported at +3.7%:
November existing home sales surged more than expected Up 4.8% compared to October and up 6.1% compared to November 2023. The rise in mortgage rates may dent sales in the coming months.
In recent comments, Trump talks history of U.S. tariffs. Here's a fact check. - CBS News
My video: My Assessment of the U S Economy Going into 2025 - YouTube
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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $8,000 in principal amount
(I am buying 2 of the 4 month treasury bill that will be auctioned today that is not included in this total)
Corporate Bonds: $10,000 in principal amount
Treasury Notes Purchased at Auction: $3,000 in principal amount
(I am buying 1 of the 7 year note that will be auctioned later today which is not included in this total)
Treasury Note Purchased in Secondary Market: $1,000 in principal amount
Inflow U.S. Common Stocks: +$664.68
(consisting of $1,353.29 in purchases minus $688.61 in proceeds)
Realized Gain Common Stocks: +$260.66
Inflow Stock Funds (CEFs): +$347.1
Inflow Stocks/Stock Funds: +$1,011.78
Exchange Traded Baby Bond (EMP): +$107.75
Net Outflow Equity REIT Preferred Stock: -$62.49
(consisting of $205.74 in proceeds minus $143.25 in a purchase)
2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$68,480.98
December 2024 Treasury Yield Curve:
December 2024 Real Yield Curve Rates:
5 year TIP breakeven inflation rate: 2.39% (the average annual CPI over the next five years for the buyer of the TIP with a 2.04% real yield to breakeven with the buyer of the 5 year non-inflation protected treasury with a 4.43% yield)
10 year TIP breakeven inflation rate: 2.35%
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Portfolio Issues:
If I receive an annual income of 4% or more from assets held in brokerage accounts, I will not have to invade the principal amount to pays expenses.
I consequently manage my portfolio to minimize risk and to generate income.
Less than 10% of the total portfolio is invested in stocks. Most of those stocks have dividend yields over 4% and many over 10% based on my cost basis.
My largest allocation is in treasury bills and investment grade corporate bonds maturing within 2 years. The next largest allocation is in Tennessee municipal bonds with a weighted average credit rating of AA+.
5 Year TIP Auction:
As previously discussed in a comment published on 12/19/24, I bought 2 of the 4 year, 10 month TIP at auction last Thursday, both in Roth IRA accounts:
Auction Results:
Real Yield = 2.121%The real yield is the annual yield above the inflation rate until the note matures. How Do I Calculate the Yield of an Inflation Adjusted Bond?; TIPS Spread: What it is, How it Works, Relevance
Matures on 10/15/29
When I placed the first of my two orders on 12/17, as noted in a comment published that day, the real yield was at 1.882% and then increased about 24 basis points or 12.75% based on the auction results 2 days later.
****
Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund - Investor Class (VHCOX)
I previously discussed paring my position in VHCOX.
Item # 1.A. Sold 5 VHCOX at $91.32 (12/5/24); Item # 1.B. Sold 2 VHCOX at $90.66 (11/14/24 Post)(Profit Snapshots: $355.73)
Subsequent to those light pares, the fund declared a $6.1258 distribution that went ex dividend on 12/18:
I received $404.81 on my remaining 60+ share position that has an average cost per share of $40.31:
I have been taking the dividends in cash for several years, viewing that option as an alternative to selling more shares. VHCOX Stock Dividend History & Date
****
Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. (ADX) - Stock CEF
Sponsor's website: Adams Funds
SEC Filed Shareholder Report (Q/E 9/30/24)(cost of assets at $1.414+B with the value then at $2.742+B)
Adams Diversified Equity Fund (ADX) Portfolio | Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)
I started to trade this stock CEF in 1984 and have been in and out of it many times since then.
Currently I own just 48+ shares with an average cost per share of $15.85.
Price as of close on 12/24/24 |
I am taking all dividends in cash, which I view as an alternative to selling shares.
ADX paid a year end distribution of $1.96 per share, mostly sourced from long term capital gains ($1.62):
$94.99 |
Starting last May, the fund adopted a managed distribution policy where it will pay a dividend each quarter equal to 2% of net asset value per share "with the fourth quarter distribution expected to be the greater of 2% of average NAV or the amount needed to satisfy minimum distribution requirements of the Internal Revenue Code for regulated investment companies. Average NAV will be based on the average of the previous four quarter-end NAVs per share prior to each declaration date." Adams Diversified Equity Fund Announces Initiatives to Enhance Shareholder Value
Last August, the fund bought back 12,405,174 shares at $22.47 or 98% of the then net asset value per share. Adams Diversified Equity Fund Announces Final Tender Offer Results
My last buy discussion: Item # 3.B. Bought 5 at $16 (11/4/23 Post)(notes realized gains of $3,239.71 starting in 2008)
Largest gain: Eliminated ADX - Sold 467+ Shares Update On Closed End Fund Basket Strategy As Of 7/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $1,923.24).
As previously discussed, this CEF was formed just prior to the 1929 crash and was one of the few CEFs that survived that crash and the Great Depression.
A significant part of the total return has historically been sourced from dividends, primarily the year end distribution that includes the long term capital gains realized during each year.
As a small part of my risk mitigation now, I no longer will own 400-500 shares of ADX but 50 or so, and will further reduce the risk by taking the distributions in cash.
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Excerpt from Report |
Trump, who was purportedly Chosen by God to rule in America, wanted to appoint Gaetz as the Attorney General which seems hard to reconcile with Trump's status as the Messiah unless I am confused about what are and are not Christian values. Trump had to know what was in this report before it was released.
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1. Small Ball Buys:
I have been adding to equity REIT positions whose shares have declined in response to higher intermediate term interest rates. Their dividends and generally slow dividend growth make the shares less attractive compared to just owning a 10 year treasury note.
The stock nibbles discussed below are in depressed sectors and are average downs. The decline in share prices have made the dividend yields slightly more attractive to me.
A. Added to HRZN - Bought 10 at $8.65 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Horizon Technology Finance Corp. (HRZN) - Externally Managed BDC
Cost: $86.5
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 A summary of investments starts at page 7. The non-accrual loans are indicated by (13) or (14) next to the name.
SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 26 and ends at page 63)
Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Added to HRZN in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $9.23 (11/7/24 Post)
HRZN is an out-of-favor and deservedly hated BDC that has recently experienced an unacceptable increase in non-performing loans.
New Average cost per share: $10.17 (50 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 12/17/24 after add |
Dividend: Monthly at $.11 per share ($1.32 annually)
HRZN Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at New AC per share: 12.98%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/16/26
Next Ex Dividend: 1/16/25
HRZN Stock Dividend History & Date
Net Asset Value per share history: Bad
I view this history as a negative and would classify this BDC as deservedly hated. I have limited my dollar exposure in response and have attempted to produce some trading gains which I have done so far - just barely.
The 21% decline from 12/31/22 to 9/30/24 is particularly troubling as was the decline in 2016. The economy has been in an expansion mode in 2023 and 2024.
9/30/24: $9.06
6/30/24: $9.12 10-Q at page 3
12/31/23: $9.71 "As of December 31, 2023, there were four debt investments with an internal credit rating of 1, with an aggregate cost of $72.5 million and an aggregate fair value of $27.6 million. As of September 30, 2023, there were two debt investments with an internal credit rating of 1, with an aggregate cost of $41.5 million and an aggregate fair value of $15.5 million. As of December 31, 2022, there were three debt investments with an internal credit rating of 1, with a cost of $20.9 million and a fair value of $8.3 million." SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23
12/31/22: $11.47
6/30/22: $11.69
3/31/22: $11.68
12/31/21: $11.56
12/31/20: $11.02
3/31/20: $11.48
12/31/19: $11.83
12/31/18: $11.64
12/31/17: $11.72
12/31/16: $12.09
12/31/15: $13.85
12/31/14: $14.36 10-K at page 54
12/31/13: $14.14
12/31/12: $15.15
12/31/11: $17.01
October 2010: IPO at $16, net of $14.88 to HRZN after underwriting discount: Prospectus
I do not research why or how those declines happened, which I may or may not recall, since what it important is that they did in fact happen
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.I. Eliminated Duplicate Position in HRZN - Sold 10 at 10.01 (10/31/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $8.14); Item # 2.A. Eliminated HRZN in my Vanguard Account - Sold 20 at $12.05 (11/25/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $5); Item # 6.C. Pared HRZN - Sold 5 at $13.32 (11/15/22 Post)(profit snapshot =$7.4);Item # 1.B. Eliminated HRZN - Sold 30 at $11.8 (11/18/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $53.09)
B. Added to GMRE - Bought 5 at $8.43+; 5 at $8.06; 10 at $7.77 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Global Medical REIT Inc. (GMRE)
Cost: $160.17
GMRE through its operating subsidiary owned 187 buildings as of 9/30/24. Most of the properties are medical office buildings or inpatient rehabilitation facilities.
"As of September 30, 2024, the Company’s portfolio was 96.1% occupied and comprised of 4.8 million leasable square feet with an annualized base rent of $107.8 million. As of September 30, 2024, the weighted average lease term for the Company’s portfolio was 5.6 years with weighted average annual rent escalations of 2.2%, and the Company’s portfolio rent coverage ratio was 4.6 times."
One Tenant Bankruptcy: "On May 6, 2024, Steward announced that it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization. At the time of the bankruptcy filing, Steward represented 2.8% of the Company’s annualized base rent, primarily related to the Beaumont Facility. As of September 15, 2024, Steward formally rejected its lease at the Beaumont Facility. This formal lease rejection, which was approved by the bankruptcy court, allowed for a new, 15-year, triple-net lease with an affiliate of CHRISTUS at this facility to become effective. We expect rent to commence on this lease in March or April 2025."
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Management: Internal
Website: Global Medical REIT
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4.B. Added to GMRE in Schwab Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $8.64; 5 at $7.93; 5 at $7.55; 5 at $7.3 (11/11/2022 Post)
New Average cost per share: $8.14 (52+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 12/24/24 after last add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share, last raised from $.205 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment.
GMRE Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
I do not anticipate a dividend hike.
Yield at $8.14: 10.32%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/20/24 (owned 42+ as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Revenues: $34.264M
FFO per share: $.19
AFFO per share: $.22
GAAP to AFFO Reconciliation:
Absolute Net, Triple Net, Double Net, & Net Leases | NNN Leasing
Modified Gross Lease - Overview, Elements, Risks, Uses
Debt and hedging information can be found at page 13 of the Supplemental.
Sell Discussions: Item # 3.E. Eliminated Duplicate Position in GMRE in Fidelity Account - Sold 15 at $9.32 (8/19/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.42); Item # 2.G. Eliminated GMRE in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 20 Shares at $11.07 (1/20/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.97); Item # 2.E. Pared GMRE in Schwab Account - Sold 15 GMRE at $10.46+ (1/30/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $3.39); Item # 1.B. Eliminated GMRE - Sold 40 at $11.25 (6/6/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $87.86); Item # 4.A. Eliminated GMRE-Sold 98+ at $9.41 (11/28/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $159.1); Item # 1.B. Sold 10 GMRE at $11.22 (4/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.07); Item # 3.C. Sold 50 GMRE at $10.01 (5/23/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $82.54); South Gent's Comment Blog # 7: Eliminated GMRE (12/17/2016)(discussing realized gains from several trades)
Goal: Any profit in excess of the dividend payments.
Equity Preferred Stock: I also own 30 GMRE-PA shares. The tax cost basis is at $21.88.
Coupon: 7.5% paid on a $25 par value
GMREPRA Buy Discussions: Item # 5.I. Added to GMREPRA - Bought 5 at $23.06 (10/25/22 Post); Item # 4.C. Bought 10 at $24.66 (10/11/22 Post); Item # 2.A. Bought 10 GMREPRA at $21; 5 at $16.88 (4/18/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Bought 10 GMREPRA at $21; 5 at $16.88 (4/18/20 Post)
GMREPRA Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Sold 70 GMREPRA at $25.87 (4/24/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $208.36); Item # 1.A. Sold 30 GMREPRA at $24.84 (2/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot = 9.79)
C. Added to MEGI - Bought 15 at $12.5; 10 at $12.18 - Fidelity Account:
Cost: $309.3
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation with CEFs.
Leveraged: Yes at 23.49% as of 9/30/24
The fund uses a line of credit:
Annual Report F/Y Ending 5/31/24 at p.21 |
Borrowing costs have been trending down since the FED started to cut the FF rate in September. Borrowings are priced at a spread to the Overnight Bank Funding Rate. Overnight Bank Funding Rate (OBFR)- St. Louis Fed As noted in that chart, the OBFR has declined by about 1% since 5/31/24.
MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Term Fund - SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y ending 5/31/24
SEC Filing- Holdings as of 8/31/24
Sponsor's website: MEGI MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Fund
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.B. Added to MEGI - Bought 5 at $11.45 (4/19/24 Post); Item # 1.A. Added to MEGI - Bought 50 at $12.32 - Fidelity Account (4/12/24 Post)
New average cost per share this account: $12.27 (110 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 12/20/24 after second add |
Dividend: Monthly at $.125 ($1.5 annually)
There has been some ROC support for the dividend. To completely cover the dividend with income, the fund will have to harvest capital gains.
For the F/Y ending 5/31/24, $.38 of the total dividend was ROC sourced. (Annual Report at p. 15)
I have turned off dividend reinvestment and have profitably sold all shares purchased with dividends as noted below.
Yield at $12.27: 12.22%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/23/24 (owned all as of)
Data as of 12/20/24:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $14.17
Closing Market Price: $12.21
Discount: -13.83%
Sourced: MEGI - CEF Connect
MEGI Portfolio | Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)
Of the top 10 holdings, I currently own only Enbridge (ENB).
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Sold Remaining MEGI Shares Purchased with Dividends at $14.44 (9/19/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $3.71); Item # 3.A. Pared MEGI - Sold 22+ at $13.41 (5/24/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $10.31)(sold my highest cost lots plus shares purchased with dividends)
As previously discussed, I will own a sufficient number of CEFs in my Fidelity account that will generate between $200 to $300 in monthly income.
D. Added to NTST - Bought 10 at $14.25:
Quote: NetSTREIT Corp. (NTST) - Internally Managed Retail REIT
Cost: $142.5
Website: NETSTREIT
New Average cost per share: $15.46 (50 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share
Yield at New AC: 5.43%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/2/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in a recent post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 2.A. Started NTST - Bought 10 at $16.43; 10 at $16 (12/5/24 Post)
Purchase Restriction: 10 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain with a maximum at 100 shares.
Purchase restrictions are developed through my risk assessment process taking into consideration my investment goals that emphasize income generation and preservation of capital.
For this REIT, the risk is viewed as somewhat elevated due to the exposure to Walgreens and Advance Auto Parts who are reducing their number of stores. I do not know how many stores will be closed that are leased by this REIT.
Another risk assessment factor for REITs is that their stock prices will be pressured down when intermediate term interest rates are rising, which has been occurring starting in September.
The REIT dividend yield as a bond substitute becomes less attractive as the 10 year treasury yield has increased almost 100 basis points. 2024 Treasury Yield Curve-U.S. Department of the Treasury (3.63% as of 9/16/24)
The question for investors is whether you would prefer owning this REIT stock or a ten year treasury yielding 4.62%.
E. Added to WU - Bought 5 at at $10.79; 5 at $10.5:
Quote: Western Union Co. (WU)
Cost: $106.43
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
WU Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
WU Key Metrics Page at Reuters
New average cost per share: $11.63 (75+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.235 per share ($.94 annually)
I am reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at New AC: 8.08%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/23/24 (owned 70+ as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24 Post) I discussed this report here: Item # 3.C. Bought 5 WU at $11.26; 3 at $10.86 (10/31/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and 10-Q.
Share Buyback Authorization: Subsequent to my last discussion, WU announced that it may buy back up to $1B in shares. Western Union Announces New $1 Billion Share Repurchase Program
There was a previous authorization, dating back to February 2022, to buy up to $1B in common stocks. Under that authorization, the company bought back $822.7M in shares, see 10-Q page 42 wherein it is noted that $177.4M of the $1B 2022 authorization remained as of 9/30/24.
As with any buyback announcement, there is no obligation for WU to buy any shares. Buying back $1B near the current price would be a positive for shareholders IMO and would reduce the dividend payout amount.
Maximum Position: 100 shares.
F. Added to CPB - Bought 3 at $41.82; 2 at $41.38:
Quote: Campbell's Co. (CPB)
Cost: $208.21
This is part of a cautious average down process where I buy 2 then 3 shares or 3 then 2 shares until I hit 20 shares. Each purchase is required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
CPB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
CPB SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y ending on 7/28/24
New Average Cost per share: $41.95 (7 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.39 per share ($1.56 annually)
Yield at New AC: 3.72%
Next Ex Dividend: 1/2/25
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 10/27/24): I discussed this report and recent developments in a recent post and have nothing further to add here. Item #1.B Restarted CPB - Bought 2 at $42.71 (12/12/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
G. Added to AHH - Bought 2 at $10.94; 5 at $10.55; 10 at $10.15:
Cost: $176.13
AHH owns office, retail and apartment properties, provides financing for third party property developers, and has a significant general contracting business.
Stabilized Portfolio:
Top 25 Tenants by ABR (annual base rent):Portfolio Expansion:
Real Estate Financing:
General Contracting:
Preceding Snapshots Sourced from SEC Filed Supplemental for the Q/E 9/30/24
AHH 2023 SEC Filed Annual Report
Last Discussed: Item # 3.D. Bought 10 AHH at $10.47 (3/28/24 Post)
New average cost per share: $10.58 (55 shares)
Snapshot Intraday 12/23 after last add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.205 per share ($.82 annually), last raised from $.195 per share effective for the 2024 first quarter payment. The dividend was reduced from $.22 to $.11 effective for the 2020 third quarter payment in response to the pandemic and recession. Since that slash, the dividend has been raised in increments.
I have changed my dividend option to reinvestment.
AHH Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at New AC: 7.75%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/26/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24):
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Revenues: $187.652M
FFO per share: $.14
Normalized FFO per share: $.35
AFFO per share: $.28 (equivalent to funds available for distribution)
In calculating normalized FFO, the primary add back to FFO is $16.669M decrease in the value of derivatives that are not designated as cash flow hedges.
Reconciliation Net Income to AFFO:
2024 Guidance for Normalized FFO per share: $1.25-$1.27.
H. Added to CNQ - Bought 5 at $29.45:
Quote: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ)
Cost: $147.25
CNQ Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Website: Canadian Natural Resources
I discussed this stock in my last post where I summarized the last earnings report. Item # 1.G. Restarted CNQ - Bought 5 at $31.86; 5 at $40.85 (12/19/24 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
New Average cost per share: $30.72 (15 shares)
I will continue averaging down in 5 share lots.
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.565 per share (C$2.25 annually), last raised from $.525 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment.
For owners of the USD priced CNQ shares, the dividend will be converted into USDs.
Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
When paid into a U.S. citizens taxable account, Canada will withhold a 15% tax.
Foreign Tax: Credit or Deduction? | Charles Schwab
There is no withholding under the current tax treaty when dividends are paid into a U.S. citizens retirement account. This applies only to non-pass through entities and would exclude Canadian REITs whose dividends would be subject to withholding even when paid into a retirement account.
Last Ex Dividend: 12/13/24 (owned 5 shares as of)
The Canadian Dollar will be adversely impacted by Trump carrying through with his tariff threats. Trump's 25% tariffs an existential threat to Canada's auto industry; Trump's tariff threat could force Canada to face tough decisions on sovereignty | CBC News The CAD/USD exchange rate declined some after Trump made that tariff threat. A further decline will cause CNQ to underperform the Toronto listed shares that trade in CADs.
Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
I. Added to DOW - Bought 3 at $39.41:
Quote: Dow Inc. (DOW)
Cost: $118.23
DOW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
When the price fell below $40, I switched from 2 share buys to 3.
Chemical stocks are currently in a bear market due primarily to concerns about demand.
New Average cost per share: $44.92 (29+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.70 per share ($2.8 annually)
I am reinvesting the dividend as another means to average down.
Yield at $44.92: 6.23%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report here: Item #2.G. Added to DOW - Bought 2 at $48.39; 1 at $47.82 (11/7/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Eliminated DOW in 2 Taxable Accounts - Sold 5 at $59.71; 8 at $60.02 (2/13/23 Post)
J. Added to SWZ - Bought 5 at $7.56:
Quote: Swiss Helvetia Fund Inc. Overview - Stock CEF
Cost: $37.8
Sponsor's website: Schroders | SWZ
SEC Filing Holdings as of 9/30/24
SEC Filed Semiannual Annual Report for the period ending 6/30/24
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Bought 10 SWZ at $7.8 (11/27/24 Post)
New Average cost per share: $7.69 (115 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly and managed based on a percentage of an annual rate equal to 6% of assets. A dividend will generally remain in effect for 3 or 4 quarters and then reset up or down based on changes in the fund's assets. The quarterly dividend was at $.129 per share for 4 quarters and was raised to $.1458 effective for the 2024 4th quarter payment.
Data Date of 12/19/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $8.89
Closing Market Price: $7.59
Discount: -14.62%
Average 3 year discount: 14.75%
Sourced: SWZ - CEF Connect
The main reason for owning this CEF is to own assets whose value is priced in Swiss Francs. The secondary reasons are to generate some dividend and capital gains income.
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.C. Sold 10 at $8.81 (10/10/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $11.15)
K. Added to WHF - Bought 5 at $10; 5 at $9.6:
Cost: $98
SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 30 and ends at page 78)
New Average cost per share: $11.12 (35 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.385 per share ($1.54 annually)
WhiteHorse Finance (WHF) Stock Dividend History & Date
A special dividend of $.245 per share was paid on 12/10, going ex dividend on 10/31/24. I owned 20 shares as of.
Yield at New AC = 13.85% (regular dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend: 12/20/24 (owned 25 as of)
I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 1.D. Added to WHF - Bought 5 at $10.65 (12/19/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Earnings Presentation
The stock is currently in a falling knife mode.
L. Added to LXP in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $8.29:
Quote: LXP Industrial Trust (LXP)
Properties: Industrial REIT
Top 15 Tenants:
Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Pared LXP in Schwab Account - Sold 20 at $10.53 (8/2/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $23.61). I have now bought bought 10 of those 20 shares.
Website: LXP Industrial Trust - Preeminent single-tenant U.S. industrial REIT
Properties | LXP Industrial Trust
New average cost per share: $8.39 (70 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 12/23/24 after add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.135 per share ($.54 annually)
Yield at New AC = 6.436%
Next Ex Dividend: 12/31/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24):
Revenue: $85.422M
GAAP E.P.S. Attributable to common shares: $.02
There is outstanding an equity preferred convertible stock.
FFO per share: $.15
AFFO per share: $.16, down from $.18 in the 2023 third quarter.
Funds Available for Distribution: $44.138M
FAD per share: $.15 (using diluted share count of 291.6+M)
GAAP to AFFO Reconciliation:
Subsequent Events:
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.D. Eliminated Duplicate Position in LXP - Sold 20 at $10.29 - Fidelity Account (7/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.25); Item # 1.D. Eliminated LXP - Sold 20+ at $11.57 (2/13/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.37); Item # 1.C. Sold 137+ LXP at $9.08 and 53 at $9.06 In 2 Separate Roth IRA Accounts (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $914.11); Sold 100 LXP in Fidelity Roth IRA at $11.15 (1/6/17 comment- profit of $271.9 referenced with no snapshot)(snapshot in Gateway Post for Equity REITs); Item # 2 Sold 250 LXP on Ex-Dividend Date in Two Taxable Accounts-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $224.65); Item # 1.B. Eliminated LXP - Sold 155+ at $9.46 (6/26/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.37); Item # 1.B. Sold 108+ LXP at $9.45-Used Commission Free Trade (2/6/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $79.9);; Item # 1 Sold 150 LXP in Vanguard Roth IRA-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 6/24/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $80.19); Item # 1. Sold 54 LXP at $11.44 Vanguard Roth IRA (1/27/15 Post)(profit snapshot = $64.4); Item # 1 Sold 101+ LXP at $10.65 (10/28/14)(profit snapshot = $51.76)
This REIT has proven that it is not suitable for a long term hold. I have been successful so far in trading it.
K. Added to CAG - Bought 1 at $27.02:
Quote: Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG)
SEC Filed Annual Report for the Fiscal Year ending 5/25/24
CAG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch Earnings have stagnated.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.H. Sold 5 CAG at $33.07 (9/12/24 Post)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added to CAG - Bought 2 at $28.07; 2 at $27.68; 3 at $27.31; 3 at $27.05; 5 at $26.95; 5 at $26.7; 5 at $26.4; 5 at $25.8 (10/7/2023 Post)
New average cost per share: $28 (57+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share ($1.4 annually), last raised from $.33 effective for the 2023 third quarter payment.
I am reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at $28 TC = 5%
Next Ex Dividend: 1/27/25
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 11/24/24): This is the second fiscal quarter of the 2025 fiscal year.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and 10-Q
GAAP E.P.S. = $.59, a 1.7% decrease
Non-GAAP - $.70, a 1.4% decrease
Revenues: $3.1951B, down from $3.2081B
GAAP to Non-GAAP:
Fiscal 2025 Outlook: Adjusted E.P.S. $2.45 to $2.5
Fiscal 2024 Adjusted E.P.S. Actual = $2.67, see SEC Filed Press Release for the 2024 4th Fiscal Quarter
The problems can be summed up as a lack of volume and earnings growth that are not showing any signs of being resolved positively.
Packaged food companies may have experienced an increase in organic sales during the recent high inflation period, but that was due to price increases offsetting volume declines.
2. Corporate Bonds - $1,000 Par Value per bond:
A. Bought 2 Tyson Foods 4% SU Maturing on 3/1/26 at a Total Cost of 99.264:
Issuer: Tyson Foods Inc. Cl A (TSN)
I have never owned the common stock.
TSN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the F/Q ending 9/28/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.63%
Current Yield at TC = 4.03%
B. Bought 2 Alexandria REIT 4.3% SU Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.577 - Vanguard Taxable Account:
Issuer: Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. (ARE)
SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 9/30/24 (revenue = $791.6M, FFO per share at $2.37)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.704%
Current Yield at TC: 4.318%
I now own 4 bonds.
C. Bought 2 NXP 3.875% SU Maturing on 6/18/26 at a Total Cost of 98.851:
Issuer: NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI)
NXPI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 Debt is listed at page 15.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Releae for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.678%
Current Yield at Total Cost: 3.92%
D. Bought 2 Roper Technologies 3.85% SU Maturing on 12/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.2:
Issuer: Roper Technologies Inc. (ROP)
ROP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.689%
Current Yield at TC: 3.881%
E. Bought 2 Brookfield Finance 4.25% SU Maturing on 6/1/26 at a Total Cost of 99.428:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. Cl A (BAM) who guarantees the notes.
BAM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Website: Brookfield Asset Management (BAM)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.663%
Current Yield at TC: 4.274%
I am replacing in advance 2 Brookfield SU notes that mature on 1/15/25:
Third Party Prices as of 12/19/24 |
A. Pared KMI - Sold 10 of 100 at 26.44 - Vanguard Account:
Quote: Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) - Energy Infrastructure
Proceeds: $254.34
Website: Energy Infrastructure & Solutions | Kinder Morgan
KMI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $124.28
Remaining Shares: 90
Average cost per share: $14.01
Price as of 12/19/24 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2875 per share ($1.15 annually), last raised from $.2825 effective for the 2024 second quarter payment.
Kinder Morgan Dividend History
2023 Dividend Tax Treatment:
2022 Dividend Tax Treatment:Yield at New AC = 8.21%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/31/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24):
Revenues: $3.699B
GAAP E.P.S. = $.28
Adjusted E.P.S. $.25
Distributable Cash Flow per share: $.49
GAAP to DCF Reconciliation:
Other Sell Discussion: Item 3.E. Eliminated KMI in 2 Taxable Accounts - Sold 10 at $17.34 and 17+ at $17.37 (2/27/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $148.56)
KMI SU Bonds: I own 3 of the 4.3% SU bonds that mature on 6/1/25.
B. Pared CTO Again in Schwab Account - Sold 8 at $20.52:
Quote: CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) - Externally Managed REIT
Proceeds: $164.16
I sold my highest cost lots.
Profit Snapshot: $15.68
New Average cost per share this Account: $16.95 (89+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 12/17/24 - 1 Day after pare |
The AC was reduced from $17.08.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.38 per share ($1.52 annually)
CTO Stock Dividend History & Date
There was a 3 for 1 stock split in 2022.
Yield at New AC = 8.97%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/12/24
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added to CTO - Bought 5 in Schwab Account at $17.13 (5/10/24 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24 Post): I discussed this report in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 2.A. Pared CTO in Schwab Account - Sold 13 at $20.37 (12/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.89); SEC Filed Press Release
Equity Preferred Stock: I own the CTO Realty Growth Inc. 6.375% Cumulative Preferred Series A.
Last CTO.PRA Discussions: Item # 2.C. Added to CTOPRA - Bought 3 at $17.77(11/11/2023 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 5 CTOPRA at $18.5; 2 at $17.8 (9/30/23 Post)
C. Pared CGBD in Fidelity Account - Sold 9+ at $18.11:
Quote: Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) - Externally Managed BDCProceeds: $164.08
Using the specific identification method, I sold my highest cost shares.
Profit Snapshot: $83.93
Remaining Shares this Account:
New average cost per share this account: $6.58 (22+ Shares)
Regular Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share
CGBD Stock Dividend History & Date
Special Dividends:
2024 special dividends = $.27 per share (included $.05 that will go ex dividend on 12/31/24 with a 1/17/25 pay date)
2023 special dividends = $.28 per share (includes $.07 per share that went ex dividend on 12/28/23 with a 1/18/25 payment date)
Next Ex Dividend: 12/31/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in a recent post and have nothing further to add. Item # 1.C. Pared CGBD in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $17.06 ( )(profit snapshot = $32)
Last Sell Discussion in my Fidelity Account: Item #2.D. Pared Duplicate Position in Fidelity Account - Sold 2 at $16.78 (9/12/24)(profit snapshot = $14.69). That sell reduced my average cost per share in my Fidelity account to $7.24. I discussed the 2024 second quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Presentation
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.F. Pared CGBD in Schwab Account - Sold 6 at $17.37 (9/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.63); Item # 2.D. Pared Duplicate Position in CGBD - Sold 9 at $17.57 (Schwab Account) (5/10/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.8); Item # 2.C. Pared CGBD in Fidelity Account - Sold 7+ at $17.41 (3/15/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.81); Item # 3.H. Eliminated CGBD in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $15.1 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.6); Item # 2.E. Pared CBGD in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 25+ at $14.46 (3/24/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.09)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added 10 CGBD at $13.95; 10 at $13.5; 10 at $12.6- Used Commission Free Trades (1/13/19 Post)
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments.
D. Pared ARCC Again - Sold 5 at $21.2 (Schwab Account):
Quote: Ares Capital Corp. - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds: $106.03
2023 SEC Filed Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 23 and ends at page 54)
Profit Snapshot: $36.78
New average cost per share this account: $12.2 (20+ Shares)
Snapshot Intraday 1 Day after pare |
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 2.E. Pared ARCC in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $21.64 (11/27/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $48.01); SEC Filed Press Release
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 4.G. Pared ARCC in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $21.76 (10/24/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $47.2); Item # 2.D. Pared ARCC in Fidelity Account - Sold 4 at $20.95 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.88); Item # 3.B. Pared ARCC - Sold 2 at $20.36 (1/20/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.04); Item # 2.I. Pared ARCC in Schwab Account - Sold 4 at $20.72 (5/12/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.94); Item # 1.D. Eliminated ARCC in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $22.16 (1/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.53); Item # 1.M. Sold 1 ARCC at $21.61- Fidelity Account (10/20/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.1); Item # 1.J. Sold 1 ARCC at $19.27 (4/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.84); Item # 3.C. Pared ARCC in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 20 at $17,44 and Item #3.D. Pared ARCC in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5 at $17.32 (1/1/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $39.52: post contains in Item # 3.D. prior profit snapshots including those that were not discussed); Item # 1.C. Sold 50 ARCC at $16.98 (6/18/18 Post)(profit snapshot $63.24); Item 2.A. Eliminated ARCC-Sold Remaining 50 Shares at $17.25 (2/15/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $160.51; contains snapshot of 100 share in RI in 2016, profit snapshot of $105.57); Item # 1, Sold 102+ ARCC at $15.32 and 50 at $15.26: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 8/21/16-South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot =$62.72); Item # 1 Sold 100 ARCC at $17.195 (4/28/15 Post)(profit snapshot = $116.36); Item # 3 Sold 100 ARCC Roth IRA at $17.05 (2/25/15 Post)(profit snapshot $19.97); Item # 2. Sold 100 ARCC at $17.54-IRAs in Two 50 Share Lots (9/13/12 Post)(profit snapshots = $53.19)
Goal: As with all BDC stocks, the goal is simply to earn a return in excess of the dividends paid.
ARCC Realized Gains to Date = $1,058.05
ARCC SU Bonds: I own 10.
6 of the 4.25% SU that mature on 3/12/25
4 of the 3.25% SU that mature on 7/15/25
As I move closer to the 3/12/25 maturity, I will consider buying 2 that mature in 2026.
4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
All the bills were purchased in my Schwab account where the sweep pays .2%.
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 12/23/24 Auction:
91 Day BillsMatures on 3/27/25
Interest: $53.39
Investment Rate: 4.345%
B. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 12/23/24 Auction:
182 Day Bills
Mature on 6/26/25
Interest: $42.16
Investment Rate: 4.319%
C. Bought 1 Treasury Bill at the 12/23/24 Auction:
1 Year T Bill
Matures on 12/26/25
Interest: $41.27
Investment Rate: 4.259%
5. REIT Equity Preferred Stock:
The 2 REIT equity preferred stocks discussed in this section are both high risk IMO.
I decided to eliminate the remaining position in HPPPRC when the common shares slipped below $3, which highlights the risk, and to redeploy the proceeds into the higher yielding HTIA.
A. Added 5 HTIA in Schwab Account at $14.5; 5 at $14.15:
Quote: National Healthcare Properties Inc. 7.375% Cumulative Preferred Series A Stock (U.S.: Nasdaq
Cost: $143.25
52 Week Range: $13.5-$17.28
Issuer: This is private REIT that owns healthcare properties.
The Company acquires, owns and manages a diversified portfolio of healthcare-related real estate, focused on outpatient medical facilities (“OMFs”) and senior housing operating properties (“SHOPs”). . . . As of September 30, 2024, the Company owned
Properties as of 9/30/24 and % Leased:
10-Q at page 43
GAAP Loss Calculation for Q/E 9/30/24:
P.44 10-Q |
GAAP to AFFO Reconciliation:
Sources of payments to preferred shareholders: Page 59, 10-Q
"disposed of seven OMFs, two SHOPs and one land parcel during the nine months ended September 30, 2024 for an aggregate contract sales price of $82.6 million. These proceeds were primarily used to fund a portion of the Closing Payments."
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Restarted HTIA in my Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $14.97 (8/29/24 Post)
New average cost per share this account: $14.65 (20 shares)
Yield at $14.65: 12.59%
Calculation: .07375% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.84375 annual per share dividend ÷ $14.65 Total Cost per share = 12.5853%.
The dividend yield confirms the high risk, primarily involving the risk that the preferred dividends will be deferred until the REIT is on firmer financial footing.
Last Ex Dividend: 10/4/24
Next Ex Dividend: 1/3/25
HTIA Stock Dividend History & Date
National Healthcare Properties Inc. Announces Preferred Stock Dividends and Ticker Symbol Updates
As noted in a prior discussion of this private REIT, the external manager was not generating enough income to pay the common shareholders a cash dividend. This REIT declared quarterly dividends entirely in shares of its common stock starting in October 2020 until June 2024. The REIT did declare that it would no longer be paying a common dividend in stock, see page 29, 10-Q.
The Stopper Clause is only activated when the company pays a cash dividend to the common shareholders.
Currently, there is no legal restraint on deferring the cumulative preferred stock dividend.
If the preferred dividend is deferred, the entire deferred amount has to be paid once the company pays a cash dividend to the common shareholders.
I sold on the ex dividend date.
Issuer: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. (HPP)
SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
As previously discussed, this REIT has eliminated its common share dividend but is continuing to pay this preferred share dividend. There is currently no restraint in the Stopper Clause that would prevent this REIT from deferring payment of the cumulative preferred dividend.
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Eliminated HPP.PRC in Fidelity Account - Sold 125 at $13.76 (11/27/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $174.34)
Profit Snapshot: +$25.1
Current Position: None
HPPPRC Prospectus
Par Value: $25 (offered at $25 in November 2021)
Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock, senior only to common stock.
Maturity: Potentially perpetual unless called by issuer.
Optional Call Date: Anytime on or after 11/16/26. Given the low coupon and financial difficulties, I would not expect a call in my lifetime.
Stopper Clause: Standard. The Stopper Clause prevents the issuer from deferring payment of a cumulative preferred dividend while paying a cash common stock dividend or using cash to buy back common stock. The Clause enforces the preferred stock's superior claim to cash compared only to the common stock. Since HPP has eliminated its common share cash dividend, there is no legal impediment to deferring the preferred dividend payment except using cash to buy back common stock.
I am done with this preferred stock at least until I see a major improvement in operating performance. This REIT is top heavy with debt. The dividend yield is not worth the credit risk to me. I have had negative reactions to at least the last four quarterly reports.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 4.A. Pared HPPPRC - Sold 15 at $15.27 (10/24/24 Post)(Loss Snapshot = $21.4); Item # 5.A. Eliminated Duplicate Positions in HPPPRC - Sold 25 at $14.27 and 40 at $14.22 (3/15/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $155.87)
6. Treasury Notes Purchased at Auction:
All of these purchases were made in my Schwab account.
A. Bought 2 Treasury Notes at the 12/23/24 Auction:
2 Year Note
Matures on 12/31/26
Coupon: 4.25%
Bought at 99.838827
YTM: 4.335%
If this note declines in price, which will increase both the current yield and YTM, due to a rise in interest rates, I will consider buying 1 or more in the secondary market. I am currently very light in December 2026 maturities in my bond ladder.
B. Bought 1 Treasury Note at the 12/24/24 Auction:
5 Year NoteMatures on 12/31/29
Bought at 99.5431
Coupon: 4.375%
YTM: 4.478%
7. Treasury Notes Purchased in the Secondary Market:
A. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4% Coupon Maturing on 2/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.263:
YTM at TC = 4.329%
I now own 3 notes, all purchased in the secondary market.
8. Exchange Traded Baby Bonds:
A. Added to EMP in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.55:
Cost: $107.75
Par Value: $25
Security: First Mortgage lien on substantially all assets.
Next Ex Interest Date: 12/31/23
Quarterly interest payments
Maturity: 10/1/2066, with no call protection.
Interest paid quarterly.
Trades Flat.
Interest rate risk: High and asymmetric in favor of the issuer.
I currently have no concerns about the credit risk given the first lien priority and the issuer being an electric utility operating subsidiary of one of the largest utility holding companies in the U.S.
New AC per share this account: $22.01 (65 shares)
Yield at New AC: 5.57%
Calculation: 4.9% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.225 in annual interest per share ÷ $22.01 average cost per share = 5.5657%
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 5.A. Pared EMP-Sold 5 at $26.84 (6/27/20 Post); Item # 4.A. Eliminated EMP-Sold 70 at $24.87 (5/1/19 Post)(largest gain snapshot = $207.92); Item # 2.B. Sold 30 EMP at $24.44 (2/13/19 Post); Item # 2.A. Sold 50 EMP at $24.47 (7/22/17 Post)
EMP Realized Gains to Date: $464.69 (snapshots in Item # 9.A. and in my Gateway Post for Exchange Traded Baby Bonds)
Maximum Position in all Taxable Accounts: 300 shares
Current Position in 3 Taxable Accounts: 205 shares
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I published a video at YouTube that discusses my current wait and see posture as Trump soon begins his 4 year term. I have no faith in his judgment or his ability to assess the negative implications of his policy proposals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3Qa4qIANlw
I found your South Gent youtube channel and have been enjoying your commentary there. Being a 76 year old retiree with a preferance towards bonds and fixed income myself, I am in a similar situation with you. And as any fool can see, toward the political enviroment as well. Glad I found you blog and could post my appreciation and enjoyment of your commentary. Regards, Robert F.
ReplyDeleteRobert F: Comments to my blog are not automatically posted but require my approval before they are published. I have to have some control over spam comments that would otherwise dominate the comment section if I did not filter them out.
DeleteThanks for your comment. I do nothing to promote my blog or youtube channel, nor do I make anything from them, nor do I have any need to financially benefit from their publication.
Writing the blog helps me to think through my investment decisions and provides a record for me to examine in retrospect about why investment decisions were made. My memory is not as good as it use to be so the blog will often refresh my recollection on why I made a particular decision and will also provide a refresher synopsis of prior research on a company.
I have been watching your South Gent youtube videos and find them enjoyable and pertinant to me as a 76 year old retiree with a preferance for capital preservation and fixed income. Same with the sad political enviroment. Glad to find your blog so I could post that. I did pick up that 7 yr 4.50+ at auction this week but have a large chunck much shorter term ready for an opportunity, if one shows itself. Keep up the good work! Regards, Robert F.
ReplyDeleteI have been buying the first mortgage baby bonds that have been pressured down in price as long term rates started to rise last September.
ReplyDeleteI discussed adding 5 share lots in EMP in this blog. In next week's blog, I will discuss small ball adds in ELC.
I am concerned about interest rate risk for these potentially long term bonds (2066 maturities) that have no call protection. If long term interest rates continue to move higher, their prices will decline but the current yields are better than just about anything that I can buy now having the same credit quality.
I also believe it is reasonable to conclude that the Fed will launch ZIRP and QE again when the U.S. economy sinks into a recession which will happen. In that case, long bond yields may come down sufficiently to allow me to exit my higher cost lots at a profit. So I may have an opportunity down the road to manage interest rate risk which can not be done presently other than through averaging down in small lots.
I prefer owning the $1,000 par value first mortgage bonds that trade in the bond market where I have far less interest risk but the same identical credit risk since both originate from the same issuer.
In my next post, I will be discussing adding 2 Entergy Arkansas 3.5% first mortgage bonds that mature on 4/1/26. For me there is no interest rate risk in owning a FM bond that matures in 15 months. It is just another fill in my bond ladder that has maturities each week.
Finra Page:
https://www.finra.org/finra-data/fixed-income/bond?cusip=29364DAU4&bondType=CA
I now own 5. The other 3 bonds were purchased in 1 bond lots.
The first lien attaches to substantially all assets of this operating utility of Entergy (ETR)
I also own the exchange traded $25 par value Entergy Arkansas first mortgage bond that has a 4.875% coupon, a maturing date in 2066, and no call protection.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/eai?mod=search_symbol
Based on last Friday's closing price of $20.93, the current yield is at 5.823% for this high credit quality bond, but the interest rate risk is potentially hugh.
An example of a treasury note that I bought that matures in the 2027-2033 time frame is the 4.375% note maturing on 11/30/2030. I bought only 1 and will consider buying more when and if the price goes down and the yield up. The YTM at my total cost was then at 4.507%.
ReplyDeleteAll of the notes were bought in my Schwab account.
What I will do is a search that allows for the purchase of a 1 bond lot within a time frame. Generally, I will sacrifice a few basis points in YTM with such a small order but the percentage is immaterial. I am more interested in averaging down when and if the opportunity arises in 1 bond lots. I may end up owning just 1 or as many as 10 depending on what happens.
I generally exclude for consideration any note with less than a 4% coupon. There is some advantage in going with the higher coupon when the YTM is about the same for lower coupon notes. More current income is being received while sacrificing some "profit" when the note matures.
The YTMs for treasury notes maturing in the 2029-2033 maturity range have flatlined within a few basis points of 4.5%. The largest YTM was buying just, typical starter position, that has a 4.5% coupon and a 4.595% YTM at my TC when purchased.
These notes will provide me with more current income than MM funds, particularly the purchased MM fund that I use at Schwab and the Schwab sweep account that pays just .2% which is the source for settling the recent treasury note purchases.
I expressed in my last YT video, linked below, that my primary fear in my bond ladder is that the economy will tank again and the FED will go back to an extended period of ZIRP and QE in response.
I do not view that as the appropriate response unless the threat of a depression is present, which was the case in 2008, and then only for a limited period of time measured in months or up to about a year at the maximum.
ZIRP and QE will cause distortions in financial asset prices; result in massive inflows into paper assets that have no useful purpose in the economy; create an excessive money supply through QE that provides fuel for inflation; and will incentivize the vast accumulation of debt chasing returns as well as in government spending of more and more borrowed money since it is so cheap. In other words, long term damage far outweighs whatever temporary benefits may accrue for keeping these extremely abnormal monetary policies for an extend period like the FED did in fact do until it started to abandon ZIRP slowly starting in March 2022 when it raised the FF rate from 0 to .25% (ZIRP) to .25%-.50% (might as well be ZIRP) when CPI just printed an 8.5% increase for the 12 months ending 3/2022.
I have account at Schwab and Fidelity and much prefer buying my bonds at Fidelity. You can actually bid on bonds (for the day) in the resale market at Fidelity and the last time I checked you couldn't do that at Schwab, it was take what was offerer or leave it. I sure hope you are incorrect about another round of QE. That period was downright depressing for us bond investors!
ReplyDeleteRB: Customers can not place bond bids at either Schwab or Vanguard but can at Fidelity. I will buy some corporate bonds at Fidelity using bids but many of those are not filled even when they are fairly close to the ask price. I generally buy 1 or 2 corporate bonds with each purchase and may add to the position thereafter. A better fill with a limit order may be possible with a significantly larger order.
DeleteI will also use Interactive Brokers to buy corporate bonds. Sometimes, that broker has the best ask limit price for the number that I am willing to buy. Vanguard rarely does. I end up buying most of the corporate bonds in my Fidelity account. While I have not counted how many different bonds that I own, the number is probably somewhere in the 300 to 400 range, so the individual bonds that I own would qualify as a diversified investment grade corporate bond fund in its totality.
I do a lot of maturity stacking of different bonds from the same issuer, usually extending the maturity range before the first bond in the stack matures.
I will limit risk by owning no more than $10,000 in principal amount from a single corporate issuer.
I will own more from several municipal bond issuers including Williamson County GO's that are rated Aaa. I recently bought 15 of those with the last order being for a 2029 maturity.
Item # 6.A. Bought 5 Williamson County Tennessee 3% GO Maturing on 4/1/2029 at a Total Cost of 98.006:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/12/bce-btbunca-cnq-cve-dow-emp-fsk-gmab.html
I am not predicting a date when ZIRP and QE will come back, but I have seen enough of how the FED responds to hard times now that it is reasonable to predict their return with a significant economic downturn. Neither should happen IMO with a garden variety recession, but simply a reduction in the FF rate to around 2% at the lowest.
That concern about their return is moving me to extend maturities some now when intermediate term rates provide a higher yield than the T Bills which is the case now. I don't know when those extremely abnormal monetary policies will return, maybe in a year or two or not at all in my lifetime.
FF Chart 1955 to Date:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
When I am considering a purchase of a bond in the secondary market, I will compare ask prices in at least two of my brokerage accounts.
ReplyDeleteUnlike the stock market, where everyone sees the same quoted best ask price, there is no uniformity in ask prices for bond purchases displayed at my brokers.
For example, I will always have the order book open in my Fidelity account when considering a bond purchase in my Interactive Brokers account. If the price is lower in the IB account, which is sometimes the case, I will then buy the bond there.
I have seen bond order books where it is obvious that the seller is identical, based on the amount of bonds offered and the minimum bond requirement for an order, but the prices offered by the two brokers are different. This occurs primarily when looking at a Vanguard order book and comparing it to the one at Fidelity, with the Vanguard price being higher.
While IB will allow me to enter a limit price, unlike Schwab and Vanguard, I have been hit with a small fee on occasion in addition to the $1 per bond commission when the limit order is filled. The fee is not explained but probably has something to do with a fee paid by IB to another broker to fill the order. I have never had that happen in my Fidelity trades. As a result, I will no longer use limit orders to buy at IB. I will enter an order at IB only when I am hitting the displayed ask price. I currently own 91 corporate bonds in my IB account.
I do not currently own any corporate bonds in my Schwab account. One reason is that there is a minimum charge of $10 for a corporate bond order. I have in the past bought 10 corporate bonds in that account in one order, but prefer buying just 1 or 2 which is not cost effective when the minimum commission is $10 rather than just $1 per bond which is the case at Fidelity, IB and Vanguard.
IR Rates Today's Treasury Auctions:
ReplyDelete91 Day: 4.335%
182 Day: 4.282%
Current FF Range: 4.25%-4.5%
The signal sent by the the 91 day investment rate is that no rate cut is likely prior to its maturity on 4/2/25, though there is a slight possibly of a 25 basis point cut at the 3/19 meeting. CME FedWatch tool has a greater probability of a March rate at 52.1% as of 10:38 CST.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
The 6 month Investment rate does have embedded in it a slight more probable than not rate cut at the May meeting. The CME Fedwatch tool, which uses the federal funds futures contracts, currently has a 64.4% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut at the 5/7/25 meeting and at 77.1% on or before the 6/18/25 meeting. The 6 month T Bill matures on 7/3/25.
I participated in both auctions today.
When the stock market was down earlier this morning, I bought small ball lots in a scatter shot, primarily equity REITs that were falling in price as the ten year declined some in price. The shotgun scatter shot approach is just moving down a list of holdings and buying a few shares in several dividend paying stocks that have declined in price and where I am in an ongoing process of averaging down in tiny lots.
A dominant worry among stock investors is whether intermediate and longer term interest rates will continue to trend higher.
ReplyDeleteThe ten year treasury reversed a slight move down in yield and rose 3 basis points. The S&P 500 then gave up its gain and is currently down 11 points as of 10:2 CST.
I have 6 Eversource SU bonds that will mature on 1/25/25. I decided to extend the maturity and settled on buying 2 of the Eversource 3.35% SU that matures on 3/15/26. I placed a limit order at 98.2 in my Fidelity account, which split the difference between what was then the ask and bid prices. When I do that I will receive a fill about 20% of the time. Mostly the small lot limit orders are just ignored. The YTM at my 98.3 total cost is 4.8175%.
https://www.finra.org/finra-data/fixed-income/bond?cusip=30040WAB4&bondType=CA
As I mentioned in an earlier comment, better prices can frequently be achieved in corporate bond purchases when the lot size is much larger. I generally trade only 1 or 2 corporate bonds at a time.
I am behind in discussing my corporate bond purchases. This last purchase will probably be discussed in the 1/16/25 post.
I recently published a video at YT that discusses how the decline in short term rates and the rise in intermediate term yields, which started with the FED's rate cut in September, is impacting my willingness to go slightly further out on the maturity spectrum with new purchases.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLasIroUOrY&t=2s
I mentioned the issue in that video, and in an earlier one linked therein, involving state taxation of dividends sourced from repurchase agreements involving treasuries. Both Schwab and Fidelity have treasury MM funds that use repurchase agreements and MM funds that do not. The Fidelity treasury only fund has the symbol FDLXX.
Since I live in a state with no income tax, this issue is not relevant to me, but is relevant, for example, to a family member living in California.
Happy New Year
ReplyDeleteI sold a few stocks that haven't done well. A clean slate for the new year. Though it's about taking the $3000 cap gain loss, to offset a tiny bit of the conversion.
Gone are CCAP, MMM, and SOLV.
Left that are underwater are
F that I'll wait out for now.
VZ verizon for the div.
CRSP lottery ticket.
In the Roth is KGS KODIAK GAS SERVICES INC that's been on a climb so I'll leave it.
Instead I've been in indices.
Most are what I had before, but $30k is in small lots bought to trade. They are right above current prices. Might be dead $ for a while if longer end rates keep climbing (& normalizing) & causing more pullback.
Hoping CRSP accomplishes it's goal. Turns out I have the GBA mutation (N370S variation) on one allele. If it's on two, ie homozygous, I'd have Gaucher. So if gene therapy is developed to work that'd be great for me.
Land: Crispr Therapeutics has received regulatory approvals for its gene editing therapy for sickle cell and transfusion dependent beta thalassemia and splits program costs and profits with Vertex on a 60/40 basis with the 40% allocated to Crispr. Vertex paid a great deal of money for its percentage. It is too early to know whether the numerous pipeline projects described in the last loss report will be successful.
Deletehttps://ir.crisprtx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/crispr-therapeutics-provides-business-update-and-reports-third-5
I am intrigue by the technology and will continue holding my small position.
The current market price suggests that investors are not confident that the ongoing trials for other gene editing therapies will end up being approved by regulators.
The company has about $1.935B in cash as of 9/30/24, which does provide a long runway for moving the pipeline therapies toward regulatory approval filings, if successful, so it is a wait and see stock for me.
Most of the trials are in early clinical stages
E.G.
https://ir.crisprtx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/crispr-therapeutics-presents-data-2024-american-society
It does give me hope that they'll get there since they've had real enacted success... and also the deep pockets behind it. Thanks for all the data.
DeleteWith how slow approval and trial process is, my best bet may be entry in trials.
The stock price may reflect that CarT isn't as big as it seemed like it would be -in lymphoma-.... rather than on the gene therapy future. (There are better treatments for the less intensely aggressive conditions.) I can hope that's it.
This stuff is fascinating. I once shadowed a single grad class on gene modification. Most went over my head, but they went into how a manufactured 'virus' entered the gene and changed the dna. If I had to pick another career in another lifetime...
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/01/ahh-cve-dirunca-elc-flo-fsphx-gis-gmre.html