Blogger Display of Images:
I have noticed two recent problems involving Blogger's display of images.
Sometime the image does not load. That can frequently be cured by reloading the page. If the image icon is clicked, the image will display in a separate window.
The other problem is that many images appeared to be blurred when reading the text. This started to occur last week and has impacted historical posts as well. The image is not blurred when it is clicked for separate viewing from the text. For some images, I was able to reduce the blurring by increasing the size of the image to large, starting with this post only.
Increasing the the size to extra large improved the image quality but also cut off part of the image when published, but not in the draft stage.
I do not know whether those issues were intentionally created by Blogger or issues that will be fixed in time.
Snapshot of trades are included simply to show that I am actually risking my money.
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Dollar Value of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Inflow Small Ball Common Stocks/Stock Fund (Item # 2): $660.5
Outflow Common Stocks (Item # 3): $1,074.85 (2 stocks)
I am close to do doing nothing other than buying short term investment grade corporate bonds.
Realized Gains Common Stock: $73.95
Net Outflow Stocks/Stocks Funds: $414.35
Corporate Bonds (Item # 1): $24,000 in principal amount (total cost at $23,657.58).
22 out of the 24 bonds purchased and discussed below mature in 2027.
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction (Item # 7): $10,000 in principal amount
I have temporarily deemphasized T Bill purchases in favor of using most proceeds from maturing T Bills to buy short term investment grade corporate bonds.
Inflow Exchange Traded FM Bonds (Item #5): $298.73
Inflow REIT Equity Preferred Stocks (Item # 4): $378.65
Inflow "Preferred" Stock ETFs (Item # 6): $86
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Economy:
BLS March Jobs Report: Employment Situation Summary - 2026 M03 Results
+170,000, better then the consensus estimate of 54,000. Healthcare added 76,000
Prior 2 months: Reduced by 7,000
First 3 Months Average Job Growth: 68,000 per month
Average hourly earnings: +.02%
Annual average hourly earnings: 3.5% (The annual increase was the lowest since May 2021)
Overall, I would still describe the U.S. labor market as weak.
Average work week: +.1 hour to 34.2 hours
U-6 Number: +.1% to 8%; Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization - 2026 M03 Results
Discussed at Jobs report March 2026:
I view this report as positive enough that the Fed will remain on hold given the inflation concerns.
Labor market growth stalled in 2025 (181,000 jobs added compared to 1.45 million in 2024).
Oracle lays off up to 30,000 staff with 6am email-The Independent (4/1/26)
China suppliers warn of higher U.S. prices due to Hormuz closure
Trump threatens to destroy Iranian infrastructure
Trump oscillates throughout the day threatening to turn Iran back to the Stone Age unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened for safe passage immediately and claiming it is up to European and Asian countries to reopen the Strait while insulting them for the reluctance.
Trump orders 100% tariff on brand-name drugs, changes to steel tariff; Trump slaps 100% tariff on some pharmaceutical drugs via executive order - ABC News
Trump and His Orwellian, Anti-Democracy Party:
America Is Now a Rogue Superpower - The Atlantic
Trump slams allies — the US 'won't be there to help you anymore'
In one of his latest temper tantrums, Trump threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO, referring to our NATO allies as "paper tigers" Trump threatens to QUIT 'paper tiger' NATO- YouTube; Trump suggests in new interviews he is ‘absolutely’ considering withdrawing US from ‘paper tiger’ NATO That put a smile on Putin's face as did Trump threatening to invade Greenland, the sovereign territory of Denmark. 'We need to own Greenland!' - Trump THREATENS to take Greenland - YouTube
On reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Trump tries to shift responsibility away from US - ABC News
Trump claims that it would be easy for France, the U.K. and Asian countries to secure the Strait of Hormuz. While accompanying vessels through the Strait, maybe some of their ships will be subject to machine gun fire from the shore, which is the threat as described by Trump, rather than missiles and drones, but those countries too cowardly to go get the oil themselves according to Trump's insults and diatribes. Trump: "You can take a machine gun from the shore, shoot a little few bullets at a ship, or maybe an over-the-shoulder missile." Donald Trump struggles to claim victory as he edges toward ending Iran war
Trump views false statements, threats, punishments and insults as the preferred ways to govern.
If it is so easy to open the Strait, why does Trump avoid doing it using the U.S. Navy. The answer is that he knows that U.S. sailors would be killed and possibly one or more U.S. warships would be destroyed, not by machine gun fire from the coast, but by coordinated ballistic missiles and drone attacks include submersible drones that Iran has. US Navy’s New Strait of Hormuz Nightmare: Iran’s ‘Azhdar’ Stealth Underwater Drone Could Disrupt Global Shipping and Redefine Naval Warfare - Defence Security Asia Ukraine has used water drones effectively to damage and sink Russian warships.
Then, soon after Trump claims it is up to European and Asian countries to open the Strait, Trump publishes a "Truth" Social message that the U.S. can take the Strait and Iran's Oil:
'No air defenses': Trump, Hegseth touted American dominance in Iran before jet was downed - ABC News
Hegseth ousts Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George - ABC News
Exclusive: US intelligence assesses Iran maintains significant missile launching capability, sources say | CNN Politics; US intelligence. says half of Iran's weapons arsenal still intact, officials disagree | The Jerusalem Post; US intelligence said to assess around half of Iran’s missile launchers still intact | The Times of Israel If true, the American public has been mislead by Trump and Hegseth on Iran's missile capabilities. The problem is no claim made by Trump and Hegseth can be taken at face value. The most rational approach IMO for their representations is to simply assume they are false or at best misleading until there is reliable evidence supporting their claims. Trump is the primary source of Fake News in the World today IMO.
Iran has ports on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea. Russia has ports on the western side of this inland sea. It is geographically possible for Russia to supply weapons through this route.
How Russia and China are winning the war in Iran | PIIE
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Trump says it's 'not possible' for the U.S. to pay for Medicaid, Medicare and day care: 'We’re fighting wars Trump wants to increase the annual defense budget to $1.5 trillion and reduce non-defense spending by 10%. Trump: "It’s not possible for us to take care of day care, Medicaid, Medicare - all these individual things. They can do it on a state basis. You can’t do it on a federal." This is part of the Republican America First plan. Trump's statements are part of a video that was posted at the White House website that was quickly deleted but nonetheless captured before deletion by numerous news organizations. Trump: It's 'not possible' for U.S. to pay for daycare, Medicaid and Medicare - YouTube; Trump says it is 'not possible' to pay for day care and Medicare because U.S. is at war;'We're fighting wars, we can't take care of daycare': Trump’s remark on escalating Iran war - YouTube
Rubio Says Iran Should Spend on Its People Instead of Funding Military, as Trump Requests $1.5T for Pentagon Rubio: "Imagine an Iran that, instead of spending their wealth, billions of dollars, supporting terrorists or weapons, had spent that money helping the people of Iran."
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Trump signs executive order aiming to restrict mail-in voting, a move that's likely to face legal challenges - CBS News; Trump Signs Executive Order To Create Nationwide List Of Eligible Voters If states do not comply with this EO, Trump will order funding to be cut off. He has also instructed the Post Office to refuse delivery of any mail-in ballot unless the identify of the person is first confirmed using the Social Security database.
Multiple lawsuits have been filed already challenging the constitutionality of that EO. A similar one was already found to be unconstitutional by a federal district court judge who issued an injunction preventing its enforcement. In bad news for Trump, judge who blocked his last anti-voting order will hear challenge to new one - Democracy Docket; Voting Rights Groups Challenge Executive Order on Mail-In Ballots as Illegal Interference in Elections | League of Women Voters; Civil rights groups sue Trump administration over order to limit mail-in voting | US voting rights | The Guardian; Campaign Legal Center Sues Trump Administration Over Another Unconstitutional Voting Executive Order | Campaign Legal Center
As noted previously, Trump has no proof that mail-in voting results in any meaningful voter fraud. Consequently, his attempts to ban or limit mail-in voting has only 1 purpose, not the one that he claims, but suppression of lawful voting, a long time republican policy objective.
As a practical matter, the Post Office is not set up to compare the name on a mail-in ballot with SS numbers. Multiple mistakes will be made that will disenfranchise lawful voters. Can our American King just order the PO to refuse delivery of mail by an Executive Order? I doubt it, but have not researched the issue.
There are numerous other legal issues that will most likely result in a federal district court enjoining the enforcement of the EO including Trump's power to constitutionally interfere with how the states conduct elections and his power to prevent the Post Office from delivering mail-in ballots or even requiring the PO to check voter identifications with SS information before sending a ballot.
This is being done by Trump solely as part of his ongoing voter suppression effort supported by republican politicians in the House and Senate. Trump presents as usual no proof that mail in voting results in anything close material voter fraud since he has none. The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud Are Dead People Voting by Mail: Evidence from Washington State Administrative Data; Mail voting fraud: Data points to low risk and high benefits for voters | Brookings All previous studies have found that there is no evidence of any material fraud through mail-in voting, but that is irrelevant to republicans who are concerned about losing elections and consequently will do whatever they can to limit lawful voting, particularly by those who do not vote the right way. When pursuing their authoritarian agenda, facts are irrelevant to republicans since merely stating a conclusion without supporting evidence is viewed as proof of the conclusions truth, a basic authoritarian approach to governing (Big Brother (Nineteen Eighty-Four) - Wikipedia)
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Judge rules Trump's directive cutting off funding for NPR and PBS violates the First Amendment
Republicans Eye Cutting Health Care To Pay For Iran War
Trump’s proposed gold statue in his library ‘looks awfully familiar’ to dictators; Plans for gaudy Trump presidential library in Miami spark ridicule -The Guardian The proposed gold statue of Trump does resemble one of North Korea's Kim.
'Construction has to stop!': Federal judge halts White House ballroom construction - ABC News By demolishing the entire East Wing of this historic building, Trump treated the White House as if he owned the property. The gaudy ballroom design that I have seen, with its Corinthian columns, look like something that a Roman emperor would want. Karoline Leavitt rages after NYT experts shred Trump’s ballroom plans | The Independent
I suspect Bondi was fired since she was unsuccessful in pursuing Trump vengeance campaign. Bondi and Blanche have severely damaged the reputation and credibility of the DOJ. Both are Trump toadies, subservient to his will.
Hegseth prays for 'overwhelming violence' at Pentagon's monthly Christian service - YouTube The Pope rebuked Hegseth. Pope seems to rebuke Hegseth in remarks about leaders with ‘hands full of blood’ | Pope Leo XIV | The Guardian
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I have not seen Trump's Easter Message yet, so I thought that would reference the one he made in 2025:
This video discusses the Chosen One's 2024 Easter Message: David French on Trump's Easter post: A display of venom and hatred - YouTube
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1. Corporate Bonds: 24
As previously discussed, I am using proceeds from maturing treasury bills to increase my short term investment grade corporate bond allocation.
The reason is the higher yields and the minimal interest rate risk given the short maturities. I live in Tennessee that does not have a state income tax. Consequently, the after tax yield from corporate bond and treasury interest payments will be the same for me.
Given the number of different bonds being purchased, I have cut off discussing purchases made after last Monday (3/30) and will discuss those in my next post.
I purchase corporate bonds at discounts to par value.
The "profit" realized upon redemption is generally characterized as realized market discount and taxed as interest income rather than as a capital gain. Some realized gains are taxed as short term capital gains when the holding period is short term, which results in the same tax treatment as interest income.
The following snapshot is one page from my 2025 tax return:
Turbotax collects the realized market discounts from my brokerage accounts and then itemizes them in an "additional interest". The total is then added as a line item in Schedule B. In my 2025 tax return, the following snapshot is page 7 of that itemization list:
When buying corporate bonds that mature in the following year at discounts to par value, I am also transferring the tax on the "profit" to the following year when holding the bond until the redemption, which I will always do for those bonds.
A. Bought 2 CNA Financial 3.45% SU Maturing on 8/15/27 at a Total Cost of 98.591:
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Issuer: CNA Financial Corp (CNA) at Google Finance
Total Cost: $1,971.82
CNA is an insurance holding company.
CNA is a publicly traded subsidiary of the holding company Loews Corp (L) who owns about 92% of the stock. Loews SEC Filed 2025 Annual Report at page 5 Loews has 4 "reportable segments comprised of three individual consolidated operating subsidiaries, CNA Financial Corporation, Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP and Loews Hotels Holding Corporation; and the Corporate segment. The Corporate segment is comprised of Loews Corporation, excluding these subsidiaries, and the equity method of accounting for Altium Packaging LLC, an unconsolidated subsidiary".
CNA Detailed Earnings Estimates - Zacks.com
CNA SEC Filed 2025 Annual Report
2025 Compared to 2024:
 |
| Page 30 |
SEC Fiiled Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.5075%
Current Yield at TC: 3.499%
B. Bought 2 CNA Financial 3.45% SU Maturing on 8/15/27 at a Total Cost of 98.476:
%203.45%25%208:15:27%20.png)
See Item # 1.A. Above
Total Cost: $1,969.52
YTM at Total Cost: 4.597%
Current Yield at TC: 3.503%
C. Bought 2 Capital One 3.75% SU Maturing on 3/8/27 at a Total Cost of 99.544 - Interactive Brokers Account:
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Issuer: Capital One Financial Corp (COF) at Google Finance
Total Cost: $1,990.88
Last May, Capital One completed the acquisition of Discover Financial Services whose bonds became COF obligations.Capital One Completes Acquisition of Discover
COF Detailed Earnings Estimates - Zacks.com
COF SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings:
YTM at Total Cost: 4.247%
Current yield at TC: 3.767%
Other Currently Owned Capital One SU Bonds:
4 of the 4.1% SU Maturing on 2/9/27, Bond Page | FINRA.org (originally issued by Discover Financial)
2025 Matured COF SU Bonds: 8 bonds, "Profit" of $180.86
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D. Bought 2 American Tower 3.125% SU Maturing on 1/15/27 at a Total Cost of 99.023 - Interactive Brokers Account:
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Issuer: American Tower Corp (AMT) at Google Finance
Total Cost: $1,980.46
SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 12/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.372%
Current Yield at TC: 3.156%
I am replacing 2 American Tower 4.4% SU bonds that matured earlier this year:
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E. Bought 2 Corebridge Financial 3.65% SU Maturing on 4/5/27 at a Total Cost of 99.133:
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SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/26
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Recent News: Corebridge Financial and Equitable Holdings Announce Transformational Merger (3/26/26); Corebridge, Equitable stocks get a bump after 'surprise' merger news | S&P Global; Corebridge and Equitable to merge in all-stock deal valuing combined company at $22bn - Reinsurance News; Fitch: Corebridge Financial's Outlook to Positive Following Merger with Equitable Holdings Fitch has a BBB+ rating on the SU debt. I currently own 4 Equitable Holdings 4.35% SU maturing on 4/20/28. Bond Page | FINRA.org While both stocks posted small gains on 3/26, they retreated the next falling over 8% on 3/27/26.
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.534%
Current Yield at TC: 3.692%
F. Bought 2 ITC Holdings 3.35% SU Maturing on 11/15/27 at a Total Cost of 98.31 - Interactive Brokers Account:
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Issuer: ITC Holdings is a subsidiary of the utility holding company Fortis Inc (FTS) In the past I have owned FTS and Fortis SU bonds.
Total Cost: $1,966.2
ITC is the largest independent electricity transmission company in the U.S.
ITC 2025 Financial Information - Far Left Column:
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.432%
Current Yield at TC: 3.408%
G. Bought 2 Oracle 3.25% SU Maturing on 11/15/27 at a Total Cost of 97.698:
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Issuer: Oracle (ORCL) at Zacks
Total Cost: $1,953.96
ORCL Detailed Earnings Estimates - Zacks.com
ORCL SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Fiscal Quarter ending 2/28/26
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.726%
Current Yield at TC: 3.327%
H. Bought 2 Sherwin Williams 3.45% SU Maturing on 6/1/27 at a Total Cost of 98.953:
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Issuer: Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW) at Google Finance
Total Cost: $1,979.06
SHW Detailed Earnings Estimates - Zacks.com
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/25
"Founded in 1866, The Sherwin-Williams Company is a global leader in the manufacture, development, distribution, and sale of paint, coatings and related products to professional, industrial, commercial, and retail customers. The Company manufactures products under well-known brands such as Sherwin-Williams®, Valspar®, HGTV HOME® by Sherwin-Williams, Dutch Boy®, Krylon®, Minwax®, Thompson’s® WaterSeal®, Cabot®, Suvinil® and many more. With global headquarters in Cleveland, Ohio, Sherwin-Williams® branded products are sold exclusively through a chain of more than 5,400 Company-operated stores and branches, while the Company's other brands are sold through leading mass merchandisers, home centers, independent paint dealers, hardware stores, automotive retailers, and industrial distributors. The Sherwin-Williams Performance Coatings Group supplies a broad range of highly-engineered solutions for the construction, industrial, packaging and transportation markets in more than 120 countries around the world."
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.374%
Current Yield at TC: 3.387%
I am replacing with this purchase 2 of the 4 SU bonds that matured last year:
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| IB Account |
%20+$52.92%20.png) |
| Fidelity Account |
I. Bought 2 Amgen 4.05% SU Maturing on 8/18/29 at a Total Cost of 98.879:
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Issuer: Amgen Inc (AMGN) at Google Finance
Total Cost: $1,977.58
AMGN Detailed Earnings Estimates - Zacks.com
AMGN SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.41%
Current Yield at TC: 4.096%
I now own 4 bonds.
J. Bought 2 Eaton Vance 3.5% SU Maturing on 4/6/27 at a Total Cost of 99.271:
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Issuer: Eaton Vance was acquired by Morgan Stanley (MS) after this bond was issued. This bond has the same credit ratings as the ones issued by MS.
Total Cost: $1,985.42
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A1/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.242%
Current Yield at TC: 3.526%
K. Bought 2 Carlisle 3.75% SU Maturing on 12/1/27 at a Total Cost of 98.873:
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Issuer: Carlisle Companies Inc (CSL) at Google Finance
Total Cost: $1,977.46
CSL SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/25Arnl ment
"Carlisle Companies Incorporated is a leading supplier of innovative building envelope products and solutions for more energy efficient buildings. Through its building products businesses – Carlisle Construction Materials ("CCM") and Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies ("CWT") – and family of leading brands, Carlisle delivers innovative, labor reducing and environmentally responsible products and solutions to customers through the Carlisle Experience."
CSL Detailed Earnings Estimates - Zacks.com
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.456%
Current Yield at TC: 3.793%
This is my first purchase of a CSL SU bond. I have never owned the common stock.
L. Bought 2 Bank of America 4.183 SU Maturing on 11/25/27 at a Total Cost of 99.633 - IB Account:
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Issuer: Bank of America (BAC) at Zacks
Total Cost: $1,922.66
BAC Detailed Earnings Estimates - Zacks.com
BAC SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.413%
Current Yield at TC: 4.198%
I am replacing 2 BAC SU bonds that matured earlier this year:
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2. Small Ball Common Stock Purchases:
I am cutting off discussion of common stock purchases and sales with trades made last Tuesday, 3/31/26.
A. Added to UDR - Bought 1 at $34.02; 1 at $33.63 (Schwab Account):
Quote: UDR (UDR) at MSN Money - Apartment REIT
Cost: $67.65
UDR, an S&P 500 company, is a leading multifamily real estate investment trust with a demonstrated performance history of delivering superior and dependable returns by successfully managing, buying, selling, developing and redeveloping attractive real estate communities in targeted U.S. markets. As of December 31, 2025, UDR owned or had an ownership position in 60,941 apartment homes, including 300 apartment homes under development."
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Eliminated Duplicate Positions in UDR - Sold 24+ at $40.8 in Fidelity Account and 16 at $39.93 in my Vanguard Account (2/17/26 Post)(profit snapshot = $160.39) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/25 and Supplemental
I will be replacing in this account the shares previously sold in other accounts, that is, no more than 40 more shares.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.H. Added to UDR in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $35; 5 at $34 (11/1/25 Post); Item # 1.A Added to UDR in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $36.3; 5 at $35.9; 3 at $34.54 (10/11/25 Post)
New average cost per share: $38.74 (64+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.435 per share ($1.74 annually)
UDR, Inc Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Effective for the next dividend, I changed my dividend option to reinvestment.
Yield at 38.82: 4.49%
Next Ex Dividend: 4/15/26
Currently Owned UDR SU Bonds: 16
Rated BBB+/Baa1
4 Maturing on 9/1/26, 2026 UDR 2.9% SU
5 Maturing on 9/1/27, 2027 UDR 3.5% SU
3 Maturing on 1/15/28, 2028 UDR 3.5% SU
4 Maturing on 1/26/29, 2029 UDR 4.4% SU
Once I receive the proceeds from the 4 bonds maturing on 9/1/26, I will focus some attention on possibly acquiring UDR SU bonds maturing in 2030 or later.
I also own the equity preferred stock UMHPRD which I discuss in Items 4.A. and 4.B. below.
B. Added to KBWY in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $15.41; 5 at $15.12:
Quote: Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF (KBWY) at MSN Money
Cost: $152.65
This ETF owns the highest yielding equity REITs which amounts to a collection of the riskiest ones IMO.
Sponsor's website: Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF
Expense ratio: .35%
Number of Holdings: 30
KBWY Morningstar Page Currently rated 1 star.
Risk Evaluation: High IMO. I currently own 17 of the stocks owned by this fund. They are not quality equity REITs IMO. Many have cut their dividends over the past several years. I would describe them generally as the riskier equity REITs with significantly higher dividend yields than the quality ones.
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.E. Pared KBWY - Sold 10 at $20.54; 17+ at $20.63 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $11.39). I sold my highest cost lots.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added to KBWY - Bought 2 at $15.97+; 2 at $15.88 (2/11/26 Post); Item # 1.J. Added to KBWY in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $15.49; 5 at $15.23 (10/11/25 Post)
New Average cost per share this account: $15.92 (66+ shares)
Reduced from $16.04.
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate.
KBWY Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
The monthly dividends per share generally fall over the past year have ranged from a low of $.12485 to $.12615. The trend is slightly down as some of the owned stocks have cut their dividends. If I used as an average $.12485 for illustration purposes, the annual dividend would be about $1.5 per share which produces a 9.41% dividend yield at a $15.92 average cost per share.
Last Ex Dividend: 3/23/26
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends paid
C. Added to BRT in Fidelity Account: - Bought 5 at $13.36:
Quote: BRT Apartments Corp (BRT) at Google Finance - Internally managed and small Apartment REIT
Cost: $66.8
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
BRT SEC Filed 2025 Annual Report
New average cost per share this account: $14.12 (30+ shares)
This is standard small ball trading, which is primarily a risk reduction strategy expressed in terms of the dollar amount invested, averaging down and then considering to sell the highest cost shares when and if it becomes profitable. My primary focus is harvesting the dividend as a supplement to my interest income, with capital gains being secondary.
Reduced from this account.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
BRT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $14.12: 7.08%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/27/26
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/25): I discussed this report in a recent post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 5.A. Added to BRT in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $14.14; 5 at $13.7 (3/23/26); SEC Filing
D. Added to XRN in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $32.9:
Quote: Chiron Real Estate Inc (XRN) at Google Finance - A Small Healthcare REIT
Cost: $164.5
There was a 1 for 5 reverse stock split last August.
XRN is primarily a net lease REIT:
189 properties with approximately 5.1M square feet and 96% leased. SEC Filing Titled "Building for the Future
This REIT recently changed its name and symbol from Global Medical REIT (GMRE). In the link section to the right, the new reference is to XRN-GMRE. I am not changing the symbol reference for the equity preferred stocks whose symbols are now XRNPRA (formerly GMREPRA) and XRNPRB (formerly GMREPRB), both of which are owned in multiple accounts.
New Average Cost per share this account: $34.23 (35+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 3/31/26 after XRN add |
The preceding snapshot includes the two XRN preferred stocks that are owned in my Schwab Account.
Dividend: Monthly at $.25 per share ($3 annually)
XRN Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I am reinvesting the dividend in this account.
Yield at $34.26: 8.764%
Next Ex Dividend: 4/20/26
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/25):
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Weighted average shares: 14.516M
Revenues: $38.392M, up from $35.357M
GAAP E.P.S. ($.55), down from $.10
The 2025 4th quarter had an impairment charge of $6.73M relating to a facility located in Melbourne, Florida which was sold. That non-cash charge is added back to the GAAP number in the FFO calculation, see table below.
{There was a $6.3M charge earlier in 2025 for an Aurora, Illinois facility, page 34, 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/25. While it is correct to add back an impairment charge to GAAP when calculating FFO, impairment charges can not be ignored IMO. The facility has been sold. "Prior to completion of the sale of its facility in Aurora, IL, the Company recognized an impairment charge of $6.3 million. This facility was used as administrative space for a healthcare system tenant, and after the COVID-19 pandemic, the healthcare system reduced its administrative space usage and thus did not renew its lease." SEC Filing}
FFO per share: $.97, up from $.77
Core FFO per share: $1.16, up from $1.09
Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) = $.91
FAD Calculation: 13.191M ÷ 14.516M shares = $.9086 per share
Quarterly dividend at $.75 per share.
Reconciliation:
 |
| Page 7, Supplemental |
I view the FAD per share to be the most relevant cash flow number. The dividend needs to be comfortably below that number IMO which was the case for the 2025 4th quarter.
E. Added to MAA in Schwab Account - Bought 1 at $121.3:
Quote: Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) at Google Finance -Large Apartment REIT and a Component of the S&P 500.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: MAA - Apartment Communities in the Southeast & Southwest
Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Added to MAA in Schwab Account - Bought 1 at $134.4; 1 at $132.2 (1/15/26 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.E. Eliminated MAA - Sold 5 at $169.88 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $222.26).
New Average cost per share this account: $130.72 (12+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Using Closing Price as of 3/2/26 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.53 per share ($6.12 annually), last raised from $1.515 effective for the 2026 first quarter payment. The rate was at $.82 in the 2026 first quarter.
MAA Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Dividends MAA | Luxury Apartment Rentals
Yield at $130.72: 4.7%
Last Ex Dividend: 1/15/26
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/25):
Revenues: $555.56M
E.P.S. $.48
FFO Per Share: $1.79
Core FFO per share: $2.23
Core AFFO per share: $1.91, exceeds the dividend.
FAD (Funds Available for Distribution) per share: $1.39
The FAD number is calculated differently from other Apartment REITs, based on my recollections. The Core AFFO number adjusts the Core FFO down by by $38.26M for recurring capital expenditures. This is normally the only capital expenditure deducted from FFO. Other FAD calculations do not include the other capital expenditure adjustments identified and deducted by MAA from Core AFFO in its FAD calculation. Those cash expenses include revenue enhancing capital expenditures and redevelopment expenses.
2025 Core AFFO per share: $7.61, down from $7.94 in 2024.
2025 FAD per share: $5.8 per share, down from $6.22
IMO, those numbers explain the weakness in the share price over the past year or so. I do not believe it is possible to predict when there will be a more positive trajectory.
The primary problems appears to me to be over supply leading to restraints on rent increases, and even decreases in many regions, while costs rise at a faster percentage pace than the rent increases, or inflation and demand/supply related issues.
Apartment rents just dropped to the lowest level in 4 years
Reconciliation (not blurred when clicking):
A few possible trends or events may improve the demand/supply issue.
One is the growing unaffordability of first home purchases.
Another one, more difficult to measure, is the possible passage of a housing affordability bill by Congress that could result in fewer homes being built.
This is a complex subject and involves preventing institutional investors from buying new homes and renting them out. Many housing developments are built and sold to companies, including several REITs, that rent out those homes to those wanting the single family home experience while paying in many cases no more to rent the home than the apartment, as more fully detailed in this articles: Trump ban on investor homebuying may sacrifice bigger real estate deal; Build-to-rent: what it is and why it’s growing in popularity | realtor.com The result is that an estimated 40,000 homes per year will not be built. which will intensify the single family home shortage and will force thousands against their will to rent an apartment since that is all that is available after a shrinkage in the available homes to rent. The end result could make housing more unaffordable.
F. Added to Lotto ACCO - Bought 30 at $2.92:
Quote: ACCO Brands Corp (ACCO) at Google Finance
Cost: $87.6
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
ACCO SEC Filed 2025 Annual Report
Website: ACCO Brands
ACCO Detailed Earnings Estimates - Zacks.com
New average cost per share: $3.37 (153+ shares)
Reduced from $3.57
Dividend: Quarterly at $.075 per share ($.30 annually)
I have changed my dividend option to reinvestment effective for the last dividend.
Yield at $3.37: 8.9%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/20/26
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.F. Sold 10 ACCO at $6.46 (1/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.07)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/25): I discussed this report in a recent post and have nothing further to add here: Item # 5.B. Added to ACCO - Bought 30 at $3.3; 20 at $3.15 (5/23/26 Post);
G. Added to SLG in Fidelity Account - Bought 1 at $35:
Quote: SL Green Realty (SLG) at MSN Money
Homepage - SL Green - NYC's Largest Commercial Landlord
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
This REIT is still in a slow recovery phase from the pandemic and the work-from-home trend. The stock was trading at over $101 in February 2021.
I am proceeding with extreme caution with this stock since it requires ignoring what may prove to be a continuation of short term problems and instead "betting" on a long term recovery in prime NYC real estate. The short term problems include a possible dividend cut, high leverage and refinancing costs, and rent concessions given in lease negotiations.
Properties - Prime NYC Offices
New average cost per share this account: $42.21 (6 shares)
Reduced from $43.65
Dividend: Quarterly at $.6175 ($2.72 annually), recently reduced from a $3.09 annual payment.
SLG Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
SLG last paid a monthly common stock dividend in December 2025. There was an announcement that the monthly payments would cease with that payment and future dividends would be on a quarterly basis.
The Board announced thereafter that a quarterly common share dividend will be paid in cash at $.6175 per share ($2.72 annually). SL Green Realty Corp. Announces Annual Ordinary Dividend of $2.47 per Share (also declared the dividend on the SLGPRI preferred stock)
The monthly dividends had been at $.2575 per share, or $3.09 annually, so this new rate is a dividend cut. For the preferred shareholder, cuts in the common share dividend is a positive since more cash is available to support the preferred dividend. A preferred shareholder is fine with a $.01 cash dividend paid on the common shares, since that is sufficient to activate the Stopper Clause requiring payment of the preferred stock dividend.
However, the common share dividend slashes indicate that the company is financially strained and needs to cut the common dividend.
Yield at $42.21: 5.85%
SLG bought its joint venture partners' combined 39.48% interest for just $5.1M and a modification and extension of a $170M mortgage. "The mortgage modification extended the maturity date from
SL Green Announces Acquisition of Park Avenue Tower (10/15/25) SLG "announced that it has entered into a contract to acquire
The SLG Chief Investment Officer made this comment: "Park Avenue Tower is strategically located and well-leased at below-market rents, offering significant upside as vacancy in the
SL Green Completes $1.4 Billion Refinancing of 11 Madison Avenue (9/22/25)
SL Green Announces Acquisition of 346 Madison Avenue (9/2/25) SLG "has entered into a contract to purchase
SL Green’s Office Leasing Volume Reaches 2.3 Million Square Feet in 2025 to Date (12/5/25)
3. Small Ball Common Stock Sales:
A. Eliminated LYB - Sold 10+ at $80.97:
Quote: LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) at MSN Money
Proceeds: $881.65
LYB: Detailed Earnings Estimates - Zacks.com
Dividends: Quarterly at $.69 per share ($2.76), slashed from $1.37 effective for the 2026 first quarter payment.
LYB Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I did own a few LYB shares in this account when the company paid a $5.02 per share special dividend.
Last Ex Dividend: 3/2/26 (owned as of)
Profit Snapshot: Net of $50.31
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/25): I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 1.G. Eliminated Duplicate Position in LYB - Sold 2+ $56.56 (2/11/26 Post)(profit snapshot = $24.56). I mentioned in that post that LYB had not yet cut its dividend as other chemical companies have done in response to weak demand. I noted that the dividend was not safe and was "surprised" it had "not yet been slashed". The dividend was slashed a few days after that post was published. Demand for chemical products has been lackluster for about 3 years now, indicating that the world economy is not as healthy as advertised. Chemicals industry trends in 2026 | McKinsey
The stock price surged in response to the Strait of Hormuz closure that has created so far a competitive disadvantage to Asian and European competitors and less competition from Middle East petrochemical suppliers. LYB 2026 JPMorgan CFO Fireside Chat.pdf; Dow, LyondellBasell upgraded on higher margins amid to Middle East disruption By Investing.com
Other Elimination: Item # 1.C. Eliminated LYB - Sold 6 at $98.42 (2/13/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $53.85).
SU Bonds: I own 6 issued by LYB International Finance and guaranteed by LYB.
I own 4 LYB International Finance 3.5% SU maturing on 3/2/27. Item # 2.B. Bought 2 LYB International Finance 3.5% SU Maturing on 3/2/27 at a Total Cost of 97.463 (2/10/25 Post)(YTM at 4.784%, then rated at BBB/Baa2); Item # 2.H. Bought2 LYB International 3.5% SU Maturing on 3/2/27 at a Total Cost of 99.028 (3/30/26 Post)(then rated at BBB-/Baa3; YTM then at 4.567%); Bond Page | FINRA.org
I also own 2 LYB International Finance 5.5% SU Maturing on 3/1/34, discussed at Item # 4.F. Bought 2 LYB International Finance 5.5% SU Maturing on 3/1/34 at a Total Cost of 97.253 (5/23/25 Post)(YTM then at 5.904%); Bond Page | FINRA.org
B. Pared GTY in Schwab Account - Sold Highest Cost 6 Shares at $32.2:
Quote: Getty Realty Corp (GTY) at Google Finance - Net Lease REIT
Proceeds: $193.2
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.F. Added to GTY in Schwab Account - Bought 2 at $27.85; 3 at $27.85 (1/1/26 Post); Item # 3.A. Added to GTY - Bought 5 at $26.8 - Fidelity Account (7/29/25 Post); Item # 1.B. Added to GTY in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $25.97; 5 at $25.55 (10/18/25 Post); Item # 3.A. Added to GTY - Bought 5 at $26.8 - Fidelity Account (7/29/25 Post)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Pared GTY (Fidelity Account) - Sold Highest Cost 5+ at $33.93 (2/23/26 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.18)
Profit Snapshot: $23.64
New Average cost per share this account: $26.84 (35+ shares)
Reduced from $27.05.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.485 per share ($1.94 annually)
I am no longer reinvesting the dividend.
GTY Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $26.84: 7.228%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/26/26
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/25): I discussed this report in here, which also contains my most recent detailed discussion of this REIT Item # 1.I. Pared GTY in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $32.7 (2/17/26 Post)(profit snapshot = $13.13); SEC Filed Press Release
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated GTY - Sold 5 at $35.65 and 20 at $35.69 (1/3/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $211.35)
4. REIT Equity Preferred Stocks:
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
A. Added to UMHPRD in Schwab Account- Bought 5 at $21:
Quote: UMH Properties Inc Preferred Shares Series D at Google Finance
Cost: $105
Issuer: UMH Properties Inc (UMH) at Google Finance A REIT that owns manufactured home communities.
Last UMH Discussion: Item # 1.E. Added to UMH in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $14 (3/30/25 Post)
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Added to UMHPRD in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.9 (1/1/26 Post)
New average cost per share this account: $21.66 (30 shares)
Reduced from $21.79.
Yield at $21.66: 7.36%
Calculation: .06375% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.59375 annual dividend per share ÷ $21.66 total average cost per share = 7.358%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/17/26
UMH.PR.D Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Coupon: 6.375% paid on a $25 par value.
Dividends: Paid quarterly, cumulative and non-qualified as a pass through entity
Stopper Clause: Yes, enforces the preferred shareholders superior claim to cash against only the common share owners. (Prospectus at S-21).
Optional Call: On or after 1/22/23 at par value + accrue an unpaid dividend
B. Added to UMBPRD in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $20.9:
See Item #4.A. above.
Cost: $104.50
New Average cost per share this account: $21.86 (35 Shares)
Reduced from $22.01
Yield at $21.86: 7.29%
C. Added to ADCPRA - Bought 5 at $16.95 - Schwab Account:
Cost: $84.75
Issuer: Agree Realty Corp (ADC) at Google Finance
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Restarted ADCPRA - Bought 1 at $17.2; 9 at $17.22 (12/18/25 Post)
Last Round-Trip: Item # 7.A. Eliminated ADCPRA - Sold 10 at $18.06 (2/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.68)-Item # 5.A. Bought 10 ADCPRA at $17.1 (5/24/24 Post)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 4.25%
Dividends: Paid monthly at $.0885 per share ($1.062 annually)
Agree Realty Corporation 4.250% DEP PFD A (ADC.PR.A) Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Dividends are cumulative and non-qualified as a pass through entity
Maturity: None, potentially perpetual
Issue Optional Redemption: At par value + accrued and unpaid dividend on or after 9/17/26. Given the low coupon, I do not anticipate an optional redemption.
Fitch credit rating for preferred stock: BBB, Fitch Assigns Agree Realty 'A-' and Agree LP 'A-'/'F1' First-Time Ratings; Outlook Stable (8/12/25)
D. Added to SLGPRI in Fidelity Account - Bought 4 at $21.1 (Partial Fill) and 6 at $20.44:
Cost: $84.4
Last Discussed: Item # 6.C. Added to SLGPRI in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $21.5 (3/23/26 Post); Item # 4.A. Started SLGPRI in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $21.9 (3/9/26 Post)
Issuer: SL Green Realty (SLG) at MSN Money
Coupon: 6.5%
Par Value: $25
Dividends: Paid quarterly, non-qualified (pass through entity) and cumulative
Optional Call: Call protection expired in 2017. The stock may be called at par value + the accrued and unpaid dividend. I do not view it as likely that the issue will be called unless there is a substantial decline in interest rates and SLG returns to an investment grade credit rating.
Stopper Clause: Standard
Maturity: None, potentially perpetual
Preferred Stock Credit Ratings: Well into junk territory at BB- from Fitch
Fitch Affirms SL Green Realty Corp. at 'BB+'; Outlook Positive (9/5/25) That is the rating for the senior unsecured debt.
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 5.D. Added to SLGPRI in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $20.95 (12/18/25 Post); Item # 5.A. Added to SLGPRI - Bought 5 at $20.94 (6/28/24 Post); Item # 6.A. Added to SLGPRI in Schwab Account - Bought 3 at $17.5; 2 at $17.27 (11/25/23 Post); Item # 5.C. Added 2 SLGPRI at $17.99 (11/18/23 Post)
New average cost per share this account: $21.34 (25 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 4/2/26 after last add |
Reduced from $21.77
Yield at $21.34: 7.615%
Computation: .065% coupon x $25 par value = $1.625 annual dividend per share ÷ $21.53 average cost per share = 7.6148%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/31/26 (owned 19 as of)
Sell Discussions: Item # 5.A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in SLGPRI - Sold 15 at $21.28 - Fidelity Account (1/20/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $62.49); Item # 3.A. Eliminated SLGPRI-Sold 20 at $25.96 (9/12/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $122); Item # 5 Sold 50 SLGPRI at $23.6 (4/3/2014 Post)(profit at $29.58).
SLGPRI Realized Gains to Date: $213.77
A more profitable trade for an SLG preferred stock was in the SLGPRC that has been redeemed at the $25 par value:
 |
| Retirement Account |
 |
| Taxable Account. |
Preferred stocks were smashed during the Near Depression period as credit risk concerns skyrocketed.
5. Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bonds:
A. Added to EAI - Bought 10 at $20 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Entergy Arkansas First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% Due in 2066 (EAI) at Google Finance
Cost: $200
EAI is a first mortgage bond, not a preferred stock.
Last Discussed: Item # 8.C. Added to EAI in Vanguard Account - Bought 5 at $20.5+ (5/23/26 Post); Item # 3.A. Added to EAI in Fidelity Account - Bought 20 at $21.2 (11/8/25 Post)
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 4.875%
Maturity: 9/1/66
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value + accrued and unpaid interest on or after 9/1/2021.
Credit Risk: Low IMO
Credit Ratings: A2/A
Interest Rate Risk: High IMO
Interest Rate Risk is asymmetrical in favor of the issuer which is the case for EMP and ELC as well.
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment)
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Entergy Arkansas, LLC 1M BD 4.875% (EAI) Ex Interest Dates - Seeking Alpha
New average cost per share this account: $21.31 (120 shares)
Yield at New AC: 5.72%
Calculation: 04875% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.21875 annual interest per share ÷ $21.31 average cost per share =5.7191%.
Last Ex Interest Date: 2/27/26
B. Added to EAI in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $19.75:
See Item #5.A. above.
Cost: $98.73
New Average cost per share this account: $21.61 (105 shares)
Yield at New AC: 5.64%
6. Preferred Stock ETFs:
A. Added to PFFR - Bought 5 at $17.2 (Fidelity Account):
Quote:
Cost: $86
New average cost per share this account: $17.79 (20 shares)
Dividends: Monthly at $.123 per share ($1.476 annually)
PFFR Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $17.79: 8.297%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/20/25
7. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 10 T Bills at the 4/1/26 Auction - Vanguard Account:
119 Day Bills
Mature on 8/4/26
Interest: $119.5
Investment Rate: 3.71%
8. Cash Flow into Fidelity Account 3/31/26 and 4/1/26:
My focus is generating a constant stream of redemption proceeds, dividend and interest payments.
Total Redemption Proceeds: $23,000
Total Interest and Dividends: $2,026.57 of which $893.76 was federally tax free interest from Tennessee municipal bonds.
Total Cash Flow: $25,026.57
4/1/26:
Redemption Proceeds: $13,000
The PNC Bank corporate bond had the highest total return of those bonds:
Dividends and Interest Payments:
EMP is an exchange traded first mortgage bond that I own in several accounts.
Corporate bond interest payments are scattered throughout each month, mostly between the 2nd and 29th days.
Federally Tax Free Interest: $893.76 (all Tennessee issuers)
Tennessee does not have a state income tax. The municipal bonds pay interest semiannually
I live in Williamson County which has a AAA rating on its GO debt.
Wilson County GO: Rated at AA+
Maury County GO: Rated at Aa2
Rutherford County GO: Rated AAA/AAA
Montgomery County GO: Aa2/AA
Dividends: $16.4
Total Dividends and Interest = $1,490.
3/31/26:
Redemption Proceeds: $10,000 (T Bill)
Dividends: $396.69 (includes MM sweep dividend)
The dividend total includes monthly dividend payments from the following assortment of small ball positions in stock and bond CEFs: AOD, BGR, BHK, BSTZ, BWG, GDO, GLQ, KIO, MEGI, MIN, NBXG, and PPT.
I eliminated my position in NSA after the last ex dividend date.
The 2 double short ETFs in this account, QID and SDS, were eliminated on 3/27/26.
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| Includes profit from 6 shares sold on 2/10/26 |
Interest: $139.88 (1 Hercules 6.5% corporate bond paid $16.25 and $123.63 in realized T Bill interest from 10 of the 119 day T Bill. Hercules was acquired by Ashland after that bond was issued. Ashland Completes Acquisition of Hercules: 11/13/2008 )
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
The pause in Trump's threat to obliterate Iran's civilian infrastructure, unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened for safe passage, ends tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteTrump keeps reminding Iran of this deadline in "Truth" Social posts. This is the latest one that I read this morning:
Trump: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP"
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116351998782539414
Last Friday, WTI crude surged $11.42 a barrel, closing at $111.54:
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
Initially, the stock market declined last Thursday after Trump's speech that sounded more like the Iran War will accelerate rather than decelerate. The S&P 500 index ended the day with a 7.37 gain while the NASDAQ index finished up +38.23, notwithstanding the surge in energy prices.
The dip in stock prices since the war's onset does not account for possible worst case scenarios which involve a prolonged disruption of crude and LNG supplies out of the Persian Gulf that results in manufacturing shutdowns and reduced supply of a wide variety of products in addition to the energy price spikes. The more significant negative ramification than the price spike in isolation is a supply chain disruption that would be similar to what happened during the pandemic that was a major cause of the inflation spike in 2020-2022.
The inflationary impacts go beyond the price increases in gasoline and other products made from crude oil.
Peter Navarro, who was released from prison in time to become Trump's Senior Counselor for trade and manufacturing, claimed that the price of crude oil carried a premium due to Iran's control over the Strait and that premium would be eliminated by regime change in Iran.
"Expert economists tell AlterNet top Trump adviser's claim is 'nuts'"
https://www.alternet.org/peter-navarro-economy/#
There was no such terror premium before the war began, but there will be in the future even when the war ends, irrespective of any regime change, resulting from the Iran War and the first ever closure of the Strait to commercial shipping.
Prior to this year's war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has never been closed which includes the Iran-Iraq War period.
"This is the first time the Strait has been closed. While some observers in 1990 grew concerned that Iraq would take over Saudi Arabia and control of the Persian Gulf, these concerns never materialized. Likewise, the oil price increase in 1979 was more about the anticipation of a major disruption of global oil supplies after the Iranian Revolution rather than an actual oil supply shortfall."
"What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy" published by the Dallas Fed on 3/20/26
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0320
There would be no reason for a terror premium prior to February , but there is one now that could easily become permanent or the exact opposite of the Navarro claims created to justify the Iran War.
In several interviews today, Trump represented to the American people that he expects a deal with Iran tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteStock market futures are currently trading down indicating that Trump may have played this optimism card of an imminent deal one too many times. Why anyone would take at face value any representation made by him is beyond comprehension.
S&P 500 Fut (Jun′26)
Last | 6:37 PM EDT
6,581.75 -40.50
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@SP.1
WTI Crude (May′26)
$114.45 +$2.91 (+2.61%)
Last | 6:39 PM EDT
If a deal is not reached tomorrow, Trump represented that the U.S. military would blow up the entire country on Tuesday.
"Fox News reported Sunday that Trump said in a telephone interview that he thinks a deal with Iran will come by Monday, and that if Iran fails to make a deal, he is "considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil."
https://abcnews.com/International/trump-blowing-country-iran-deal-reached-48-hours/story?id=131744086
Iran responded to Trump through Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament: "Your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a living HELL for every single family, and our whole region is going to burn because you insist on following Netanyahu’s commands"
While threats are a daily occurrence for Trump and are easy to make, it is always conceivable that Iran would agree to a deal in response. I view that as an unlikely outcome.
With no agreement, Trump would have to carry through with the threat or postpone Iran's "obliteration" again representing to the American people again that talks are progressing and are near a conclusion.
The start of what could turn out to be the worst case scenario is that Trump does in fact order the military to attack civilian power plants, energy infrastructure, bridges and other civilian facilities and Iran responds by attacking energy facilities in Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, successfully putting some out of operation requiring years to repair.
Destroying civilian power plants will be a war crime and Trump's order to do so would be an illegal order IMO.
The most senior officers will be in a bind if that order is given by Trump and carried out, all of whom would likely be indicted by the International Court of Justice which the U.S. does not recognize and whose Justices have been sanctioned by Trump.
The more immediate concern for the U.S. military is that anyone refusing the order will be court martialed in the Trump/Hegseth Department of War and their military careers would end without question.
But then the most senior officers could be court martialed for obeying the order when Trump is no longer able to protect them.
The Stock Jocks are expressing an extremely cautious optimism this morning that Pakistan's proposed ceasefire proposal will somehow work and at least temporarily end hostilities. The proposal is predicated on Iran allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz during the 45 ceasefire period, giving up its major bargaining leverage to avoid more destruction.
ReplyDeleteThe AP reported that Iran rejected the proposed ceasefire proposal and has insistent on a permanent end to attacks and a guarantee that no further attacks will occur, which does not sound like an agreement is about to happen.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-trump-lebanon-april-6-2026-87b62d531d3290fde5255077179bd3b5
Pakistani sources claim that negotiations are in an advanced stage but “several spoilers and detractors” are trying to create confusion.
Israel bombarded Iran's key petrochemical plant earlier today:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israel-hits-key-iranian-petrochemical-plant-in-massive-gas-field-as-mediators-float-ceasefire-proposal
My investment approach is to believe nothing that is being said until Israel, the U.S. and Iran announce a deal to end hostilities or at least a ceasefire. That means that I am mostly on hold buying stocks and continue to add to my investment grade corporate bond allocation this morning.
I also sold today my highest cost 50 of my remaining 300 shares of ENBPRP:CA which is based solely on profit taking.
Last Discussed:
Item # 2.A. Pared ENBPRP:CA Again - Sold 100 at C$21.48 (profit snapshot = C$432):
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/07/arow-cvx-enbprpca-glq-good-ibdu-ibdv.html
That pare reduced my average cost per share to C$14.73 for the 300 shares which will be reduced more due to today's 50 share trade. I will discuss this pare in my next blog post.
Trump: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will . . . now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. "
ReplyDeleteThe U.S. President has threatened genocide on a mass scale. I am not surprised that he has done so. It has been obvious for a long time who and what he is. Everyone who voted in November 2024 knew or must be presumed to have known given the decade or so of observations.
Previously, Trump expected that a deal would be reached yesterday. He did extend the deadline one day which was going to expire yesterday.
It is possible that Iran may buckle to those threats. It is possible that both sides are posturing for a deal more agreeable to them. Maybe Iran's negotiators, who may not even have the power to implement any concessions, will offer something that will result in another postponement of Trump's genocidal threats.
The IRGC responded that it would "deprive the U.S and its allies of the region’s oil and gas for years" if Trump carried through with his threats, and that assumes the U.S. military would obey that illegal order. That does not sound like buckling.
The IRGC has also threatened to close the Bab al-Mandeb that is the exit point for ships moving to and from the Red Sea.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharyfolk/2026/04/05/iranian-officials-now-threatening-to-close-bab-al-mandeb-strait-after-trump-threats/
Trump and Hegseth have been removing high ranking officers who would likely balk in implementing war crime orders from Trump.
As I have been saying here, the Stock Jocks are not pricing IMO the worst case scenario and the widespread negative ramifications flowing therefrom.
Even with the dip in stock market indexes since the war started, those indexes still reflect IMO a consensus opinion that there almost a zero possibility of the worst case scenario occurring and instead reflects that everything will be resolved satisfactorily soon with no lasting meaningful long term repercussions and negative impacts being only temporary.
The worst case scenario is generally defined by me as a long period where crude oil and LNG supplies are cut off that results in major price spikes for gasoline and other derivative products worldwide and supply shortages in Asia and Europe, a massive disruption in supply chains caused by total or partial shutdowns in manufacturing Asia and Europe due to the cut off in supplies, the substantial rise in inflation in the U.S. resulting from the price spikes and supply chain disruptions (similar to what happened during the pandemic), and damage to energy infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf region that takes years to repair.
The S&P 500 is currently rallying off its intraday lows:
6,575.36 -0.55% -36.47
at 4/7/26 at about 11:15 A.M. CST
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP
The intraday low was near 6,535.
The WTI Crude Oil price movement is not consistent with a successful resolution later today:
$114.89 +$2.48 (+2.21%)
The WTI price was near $67 the day before Israel and the U.S. launched their attacks on Iran.
Last | 11:13 AM CST
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1
I am not surprised that Trump suspended his threat to turn Iran back to the stone age for 2 weeks, provided Iran allows safe passage through the Strait. Iran's Security Council agreed to a 2 week ceasefire provided no attacks occur. Israel also agreed to a ceasefire.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
The Secretary of Iran's Security Ali Larijani was killed on 3/17/26 and was succeeded by Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Bagher_Zolghadr
I have read several stories that Mojtaba Khamenei is still alive but unconscious:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/mojtaba-khamenei-reportedly-in-severe-condition-unable-to-govern-iran/
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/israel-iran/article/iran-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-qom-war-latest-c2th5xgqb
Trump claims that Iran's negotiators presented a 10 point proposal that can serve as a basis for negotiation.
This will lead to a strong stock market rally tomorrow.
It remains to be seen how much control the Iran Security Council has over the IRGC. The only way to find out is for ships to start moving through the Strait and see what happens. There is no good reason why any of the parties would violate the ceasefire.
And there is no telling what may happen after two weeks and the two sides are no closer to resolution.
I did some light stock buying today. I am continuing to focus on building out my 2027 bond ladder. I will discuss buying 20 bonds maturing that year in my next post. I am also increasing my T Bill purchases this week to $15K by buying 10 of the 6 month bill auctioned yesterday and 5 of the 119 bill that will be auctioned tomorrow. I have also slightly increase my allocation to U.S. equity preferred stocks as an alternative niche source of income. I had 30 T Bills mature today in my Fidelity account. Next week I have 30 T Bills maturing, 10 corporate bonds, and 3 TIPs in a Roth IRA account. There is a constant weekly flow of maturities by design when I construct my bond ladder (includes corporate and municipal bonds, T Bills and T Notes, CDs) This requires me to fill in blank time spaces in the following 2 years as I receive proceeds. That process is now leading me to purchase a number of bonds maturing in 2027.
I own 5 municipal bonds that mature on 6/1/26 and may replace those bonds in advance of their maturity.
Stocks did not decline enough starting on 2/28/26 for me to take on much stock risk. The rally over the past two days has caused me to slightly reduce my stock allocation but the dollar amounts are insignificant.
ReplyDeleteThe two week ceasefire seems fragile to me. Trump is likely to overplay his hand, incapable of recognizing the leverage that Iran has through its control over the Strait and its ability to destroy energy facilities throughout the Persian Gulf region.
His truth social posts this month reek of desperation to end the conflict. He is capable of recognizing that a continued disruption of crude oil supplies could result in the Democrats gaining control over both the Senate and the House in the November elections.
One of the most significant developments yesterday was Iran's successful attack on the Saudi pipeline that connects with the Red Sea, which occurred shortly after the ceasefire was supposed to start.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-Attacks-Saudi-Arabias-East-West-Oil-Pipeline.html
According to multiple articles that I read, this attack took out 700,000 barrels of throughput.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/09/iran-war-oil-saudi-arabia-east-west-pipeline.html
https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/tankers/iran-strikes-saudi-s-critical-pipeline-serving-yanbu
I have not seen an estimate of how long it will take to repair the damage. Once it is repaired, it could then be hit again with an inexpensive drone, if Iran so chooses.
The amount of loss throughput is not as important as Iran clearly signaling that it can take out this pipeline when and if it chooses to do so. Just like it can stop shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and may be able to cause mischief through the Houthis in disrupting traffic via the Bab El-Mandeb Strait:
https://time.com/article/2026/04/08/bab-el-mandeb-strait-iran-houthis-threat-trade-hormuz-war-ceasefire/
I have read several articles that multiple diplomatic sources have confirmed to several news organizations that Lebanon was covered in the ceasefire agreement.
"Multiple diplomatic sources told CBS News that President Trump had been told that the ceasefire announced Thursday would apply to the Middle East region, and he agreed that included Lebanon. Mediators believed the ceasefire to include Lebanon, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that it did. Araghchi also said it was included."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lebanon-israel-ceasefire-talks-us-washington/
Both Israel and the U.S. nonetheless deny that is the case. Trump has zero credibility.
There is going to be a meeting involving the Israel, Lebanon and U.S. Ambassadors. That is low level attempt to solve that problem. What is not solvable by them is the inability of Lebanon's government to control Hezbollah if that terror organization does not willingly stand down.
And it remains questionable IMO whether whoever is negotiating on Iran's behalf can control the IRGC.
I see no reason for the kind of optimism expressed over the past two days. I certainly see no reason to add stocks after this two day surge when I already viewed the market as overvalued before the War started and with no clear resolution of hostilities and the associated worldwide economic problems created by the Iran War.
Maybe the ceasefire will hold for 2 weeks but an end to hostilities may require Trump to back down from all or almost all of his reasons for starting hostilities. He has been repeatedly claiming victory and has asserted with a straight face that there has been a regime change when none has happened. If that happens which is a possibility, then Trump will have to compel Israel to cease attacking Iran and Lebanon or nothing will change.
I have noticed significant declines in software stocks.
ReplyDeleteCRM, for example, is hitting new 52 week lows:
Salesforce Inc (CRM)
$164.21. -$6.60 -3.86%
Apr 10, 10:48 CST
Day range $163.95 - $171.26
Year range $163.95 - $296.05
CRM is a DJIA component.
Another example is ServiceNow:
ServiceNow Inc
$81.87 -$7.90 -8.80%
Day range $81.51 - $88.91
Year range $81.51 - $211.48
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NOW:NYSE
Snowflake Inc (SNOW)
$121.93 -$10.31 - 7.80%
Day range $121.07 - $132.91
Year range $121.07 - $280.67
I do not have the knowledge to assess the negative impacts on their businesses from AI, but investors are heading for the exits. I do not own these stocks.
The only new news that I have read was Anthropic announcing that it had developed a product called Mythos that can rapidly find software vulnerabilities.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/powell-bessent-us-bank-ceos-anthropic-mythos-ai-cyber.html?qsearchterm=mythos
My lay opinion is that all software has and has had vulnerabilities that can be exploited by hackers.
Another story published yesterday summarized the opinion of Michael Burry who is shorting Palantir, claiming that AI is eating its lunch.
https://qz.com/michael-burry-anthropic-palantir-enterprise-ai-spending-040926
Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR)
$128.29 -$2.25 -1.72%
Apr 10, 11:01 PM CST
Day range $122.68 - $129.20
Year range $85.47 - $207.52
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/PLTR:NASDAQ
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2026/04/atlcp-bfsprd-bhb-clx-ebay-enbprpca-ffbc.html