AROW, BHB, CL, CLX, FFBC, FNLC, GIS, HR, IRM, KMB, LTC, MAA, PFS, PINE, UDR, VSH

Dollar Value of Trades Discussed in this Post: 

Treasury Bills Purchased at Auctions: $50,000 in principal amount (Item # 3)

Corporate and Municipal Bonds: I am neither buying nor selling corporate and municipal bonds. I am not reinvesting the proceeds from corporate bond maturities and early redemptions viewing the current risk/reward balance as unattractive.

Starting in my 7/15/25 Post through m 9/21/25 post, I discussed selling 122 corporate bonds ($1,000 par values), maturing in 2032 or later, as part of an interest rate risk mitigation strategy, realizing a $3,092.11 "profit".  Many of the bonds were bought at discounts to their $1,000 par value and sold at premiums. I believe all of those bonds were bought earlier this year. 

I discussed those sales in earlier posts here: 

Item # 3 (7/15/25 Post)(9 bought and 2 sold)(profit snapshot = $30.92) 

Item # 3 (7/22/25 Post): Sold 9, profit snapshots =  $103.55

Item # 3 (8/5/25 Post)(bought 2; sold 7), profit snapshots = $155.07 

Item # 2 (8/12/25 Post) (Sold 20, bought 1); profit snapshots = $479.50

Item # 4 ( 8/19/25 Post) Sold 10, profit snapshots = $219.23  

Item # 4 (8/26/25 Post): Sold 11, profit snapshots = $243.77

Item # 2 (9/2/2025 Post): Sold 22; profit snapshots = $523.79

Item # 2 (9/8/25 Post): Sold 15, profit snapshots = $429.61 

Item # 2 (9/13/25 Post): Sold 12, profit snapshots = $383.88

Item # 2 (9/21/25 Post): Sold 14, profit snapshots = $522.69 

The purchases referenced above were in short term corporate bonds. Since the holding period was short term on all of the bonds, it does not matter whether the tax classification will be realized market discount, taxed as interest, or as short term capital gains. 

Most of the time, I simply hold corporate bonds until they mature or are redeemed early. 

When I start to trade them, I can become active as I was for 2 months or so starting last July. I am now completely inactive. Transitioning into active trading is rare but is based on a number of considerations that include interest rate risks assessments (meaningful for 2032 or later maturities), profit amounts and annualized total returns over a short holding period.  

Bond Redemptions or Early Calls in my Fidelity Account (10/29 to Credit in Account on 11/3/25): 

On 10/29/25, 3 Keycorp SU bonds matured in my Vanguard and IB Accounts (1 in a Roth IRA):

Roth IRA

IB Account

Those bonds were bought at significant percentage discounts to par value shortly after the Silicon Valley bank failure in 2023. 

Inflow Small Ball Common Stock: $3,458.32  

Outflow Small Ball Common Stocks: $656.76

Realized Gains Common Stocks: $125.51

Net Inflow Common Stocks: $2,801.56

Senate approves Democratic resolution to block Trump's tariffs on Brazil - CBS News The vote was 52-48. The resolution seeks to cancel the 50% republican tariff taxes on Brazilian coffee and beef exports. 48 republicans voted in favor of continuing the tariff taxes while 5 joined all Democrats  who voted to repeal those republican tariff taxes. The resolution will still have to pass the House where Mike Johnson will, of course, prevent a vote as he has done on the Epstein document demand as Trump demanded. 

Ray Dalio says a risky AI market bubble is forming, but may not pop until the Fed tightens

‘Sometimes the only winning move is not to play,’ says Michael Burry in bubble warning - MarketWatch (subscription publication); ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry says ’we see bubbles’ in first post in 2 years -  Investing.com

October 2025 Treasury Yield Curve:

October 2025 Real Treasury Yield Curve:

10 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 10/31/25: 2.3%

I own TIPs only in my Roth IRA accounts. 

If the annual average CPI over the next 10 years was greater than 2.3%, I would be better off buying the 10 Year TIP in a Roth IRA account compared to the 10 year non-inflation protected treasury. 

My gut tells me that the average annual inflation rate will be greater than 2.3% but no human has the answer. 

If I knew precisely what the average annual inflation would be over the next ten years, the choice would be obvious but decisions have to be made without knowing the future and exercising what can only be described at best as informed guesses. 

Another consideration is that the TIP provides at least some protection, which the nominal treasury lacks, from periods of problematic inflation, but I am going to attach the following caveat to that comment. 

During a prolonged period of high inflation, and assuming the FED is not forcing the 10 year yield below the inflation rate again with what used to be historically extremely abnormal monetary policies, which have transitioned in recent time to unsurprising during periods of even mild downturns, then the nominal yield of the treasury would be moving higher, making the relatively low coupon of the TIP less and less attractive as the nominal yield moves higher. New 10 year TIPs would be sold with higher coupons than the current vintage TIPs in that scenario, and that would cause price declines in the vintage TIPs. 

That risk is mitigated by buying the TIPs at auction and holding to maturity but even that would leave a more acceptable interest rate risk that I call lost opportunity where the investor has two unfavorable options: sell at a loss and reinvest the proceeds into newer TIPs with higher coupons or hold the vintage TIPs with low coupons that will generate less income compared to the new ones. 

+++

Economy: 

Trump touted his "trade deal" with China.  Trump touts short-term deal with China after Xi meeting - ABC News; Here's what Trump says he and Xi agreed to in their meeting - CBS News

Trump will not be imposing an additional 100% tariff as he recently threatened, which would have ended most trade with China, but he only cut the overall existing tariff to 47% from 57%, which is still an extremely high republican tariff tax paid by U.S. importers that will be entirely or mostly passed on to U.S. consumers. The 10% cut reduces in 1/2 the 20% republican tariff tax related to fentanyl. 

China's representatives have noted in the past several times that they are not that concerned with the U.S. taxing U.S. importers of products from China who will pass on as much as possible to U.S. consumers. Is it a victory for the U.S. consumer to go from 57% to 47% republican tariff tax? The answer is clearly no.  

China will resume purchases of U.S. soybeans. Bessent claimed that China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons annually of U.S. soybeans, whereas China's Ministry of Commerce stated only that agricultural trade will be expanded without any specifics on the amounts. According to Bessent, the purchase will be 12 million metric tons this year. China to Buy 12 Million Tons of US Soybeans This Year, Bessent Says - Farm Policy News If China actually makes annual soybean purchases of 25 million metric tons, that would be about what China was buying before Trump started his second term. China imported almost 26.1 million metric tons in 2024. Unfilled Chinese Soy Demand-American Soybean Association (10/23/25)(information in that article indicates that China has not yet been able to replace from other countries most of the U.S. soybeans purchased in 2024) 

In a YT video published about 10 months ago, I noted that U.S. soybean farmers permanently lost market share to Brazilian farmers during Trump's first term as a result of his trade war. Negative Impacts on U S Food Exports Resulting from Trump's Tariff Increases During his 1st Term - YouTube; Trump Is About to Betray His Rural Supporters - The Atlantic (12/17/24)("In 2016, for example, the U.S. sold nearly as many soybeans to China as Brazil did; now Brazil controls three times as much of the Chinese market", citing Midwest farmers advocate for steady policies amid trade challenges - Investigate Midwest). China will continue to reduce its reliance on U.S. farm products over the long term, viewing over reliance on the U.S. as being contrary to its food security interests.     

A purchase of three cargo loads of soybeans was made shortly before the Xi and Trump meeting, but that amount is relatively insignificant, though better than nothing. China Buys US Soybean Cargoes Ahead of Trump-Xi Meet, Sources Say - AgWeb

China will suspend its new export restrictions on rare earths for 1 year. On 10/6/25, China broadened its restrictions. China expands rare earth export restrictions ahead of possible Trump-Xi meeting That caused Trump to threaten an additional 100% republican tariff tax. Prior the October 5th announcement, however, purchasers were having difficulty in securing licenses to export rare earths from China. The slow walking of approvals may simply continue irrespective of what is said in any written agreement. Beijing’s rare-earths export licensing system: delays by design? | Merics

The U.S. will postpone for 1 year fees on China's shipbuilding and maritime industries. China will postpone for the same period its countermeasures.  

So what really happened in Trump's trade deal with China? For soybeans and fees related to maritime industries, China and the U.S. returned to the status quo that existed prior to Trump's starting his second term, while his trade policies caused soybean farmers to lose over half of their 2025 soybean shipments to China.  

Overall, while Trump gave the meeting and "trade agreement" a 12 on a 1 to 10 scale, one of Trump numerous used car salesman pitches, I would give it a 1.5, provided China makes a firm written commitment (no wiggle room) to buying a minimum of 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually over the next 3 years  and export licenses for rare earths are not subject to long delays and/or denials. I have not seen an announcement yet that China was going to lift its 34% tariff tax on U.S. soybean exports which will need to happen for commercial purchases to fulfill the minimum quota IMO.  

At least we learned that the failed hedge fund manager and billionaire, Scott Bessent, was a soybean farmer or so he said. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he is a soybean farmer (Bessent: "I have felt this pain too")

{By used car salesman pitches referenced in the previous paragraph, what comes to mind is what happened to one of my mother's caregivers who was sold a used car, borrowed money to finance its purchase at an outrageous interest rate and then the car died within 1 month after purchase, requiring more in repairs than the original purchase amount. She defaulted on the loan. There is no shortage of people who prey on the poor.}

Late last week, Trump continued to claim that President Reagan "loved tariffs", knowing that most republicans will never view what Reagan actually had to say about tariffs and will accept whatever demonstrably false claim that he makes no matter how absurd. Trump says Carney apologized for Ford's anti-tariff ad | CBC News (10/31/25)(Trump: "It was a false commercial. It was the exact opposite — Ronald Reagan loved tariffs"); President Reagan's Radio Address on Free and Fair Trade on April 25, 1987 - YouTube An apology may have been given, not because the ad was false, but viewed by Carney as necessary in dealing with the volatile Man Child subject to temper tantrums.   

China manufacturing slump deepens to 6-month low in October, as PMI misses estimates (10/30/25)

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds range by 25 basis points. The new range is 3.75%-45. The Fed also announced that it would cease reducing its balance sheet on 12/1/25, a process that is called quantitative tightening. That means the Fed will be reinvesting the proceeds from maturing treasuries and mortgage backed securities into more of the same.  I refer to that monetary policy as light quantitative easing when the Fed's balance sheet remains bloated at over $6 trillion. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Factors Affecting Reserve Balances - H.4.1 - Release Dates

Powell made this statement in the press conference: "In the committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it." Powell added that there "a growing chorus" of voting members who want to wait and see whether to cut this year again. Fed rate decision October 2025: Rates cut again, but Powell raises doubts about December  

The vote was 10 - 2. The recent Trump appointment, Stephen Miran, possibly the only well known economist who maintains that U.S. consumers will not be paying the republican tariff taxes through higher prices, dissented since he wanted a larger cut. {If the economy is booming as Trump maintains, why does Miran want deeper cuts?} The Kansas City FED chief, Jeffrey Schmid, also dissented since he believed that no rate cut was desirable. There were two Fed dissenters: Miran wanted a bigger cut and Schmid voted for no easing at all

Mortgage rates jump 20 basis points following Fed cut (10/30/25)

Mass layoffs: Full list of companies cutting thousands of jobs - Newsweek 

Amazon just cut 14,000 corporate staff jobs, and it’s not done | CNN Business Amazon blamed efficiency gains from AI for the job reductions

UPS Stuns Wall Street With Strong Profit and 34,000 Job Cuts - TT

Paramount to lay off 1,000 employees, with more cuts expected (10/29/25)

GM lays off more than 1,700 at sites in Michigan, Ohio, citing EV challenges (10/29/25)

Chipotle (CMG) Q3 2025 earnings Traffic declined by .8% 

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Overview | MarketWatch, WSJ Dollar Index (BUXX) Overview | MarketWatch Both of those indexes track the value of the U.S. Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies. A decline indicates that the USD has lost value. DXY has a basket of 6 foreign currencies weighted in the Euro. BUXX has 16 foreign currencies. 

The Broad U.S. Dollar Index which shows a persistent decline in 2025, has 23 foreign currencies. This chart shows significant U.S.D. weakness this year, that may have bottomed starting in July: 

Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index-St. Louis Fed This information is sourced from the Federal Reserve's Foreign Exchange Rates - H.10. 

Component Currencies: 

The decline in U.S.D against foreign currencies increases import prices independently of the republican tariff taxes. 

Australia’s inflation tops forecasts at 3.2%, highest in over a year

+++

Trump's Authoritarian Playbook: 

Donald Trump’s Plan to Subvert the Midterms Is Already Under Way - The Atlantic It was Trump and the republicans, not the Democrats, who tried to steal the 2020 election. Trump frequently falsely blames others for what he is actually doing. The purpose IMO is to distract attention from his actions. 

Trump Post on 10/26/25

So Trump is the Messiah Chosen by God to Rule the U.S. and the World? (Trump: ‘I run the country and the world’) Has it occurred to Trump yet that his social media messages will survived forever and will be quoted by historians in the decades and centuries to come? Assuming the U.S. is not under a dictatorship by Trump republican clones in the future, a possibility, how will Americans view those messages in 100 years, when all of his cult members are no longer around?  

In that 10/26/25 message, Trump repeated again that he wants to cancel mail and early voting in the upcoming midterm elections. Trump demands ‘no early voting’ in latest threat to upcoming elections as California and New York ballots roll in (10/27/25); Trump wants to stop states from voting by mail and using voting machines-NPR'; Before it's too late!' Trump says he will ban early voting for midterms in panicked rant - Raw Story (10/26/25) This message and Trump's other actions indicate that he is becoming increasingly concerned that the Democrats will regain control over the House. Multiple investigations into what Trump has done during his second term would follow, along with multiple article of impeachment that will be passed in the House even though a conviction in the Senate, requiring a 2/3rds vote, will never happen no matter what Trump has done and will do. 

Republican Governor Tries to Force Party to Gerrymander for Trump | The New Republic  

Donald Trump Has Amassed the Powers of a King - The Atlantic Made possible IMO by the 6 Republican Justices who are Monarchists, not conservatives in the American tradition.  

Jonathan Karl: Trump’s Retribution Presidency - YouTube

Most Federal District Court Judges are still trying to uphold the law and Constitution. Trump administration must restore school mental health funding: Judge Trump did not present any evidence justifying the cancellation of school mental health funds. School counselors funding -Order and Opinion 

Pence's never-before-published notes show key evidence in case against Trump, book says - YouTube The Trumpsters will not look at the evidence supporting the two federal indictments against Trump. Both were warranted based on the evidence IMO. The obstruction of justice criminal charge in the documents case was correctly characterized by the Republican Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA), as almost a slam dunk for a conviction. Cassidy: Trump classified docs case is ‘almost a slam dunk’ 

Trump’s DOJ Confesses to Submitting False Info to Court - Inquisitr News

DOJ places on leave 2 prosecutors who said 'mob of rioters' carried out Jan. 6 attack - ABC News

Trump Officials Could Face Jail for Defying Judge’s Order 

U.S. Citizen, 76, Allegedly Gets Ribs Broken After Stumbling Upon Border Patrol

ICE agents shoot pastor in head with pepper ball - YouTube  

After an extensive investigation, the Boston Globe discovered that the Trump Administration had falsely claimed 171 "high level" of Sinaloa Cartel members across New England were arrested in August. The newspaper found that the arrests were actually "addicts, low-level dealers, shoplifters, and people living at a homeless encampment." The reason for this misrepresentation may have been to justify the murder of alleged cartel members in the Caribbean Sea, far from America's shore. The DEA’s Sinaloa Cartel takedown in New England - YouTube

PolitiFact | Kristi Noem said immigration agents haven’t arrested or detained US citizens. That’s Pants on Fire! She is shameless, a major and essential job qualification to serve in Trump's cabinet. Making demonstrably false statements, repeating them over and over again, refusing to apologize for misleading the public, and never admitting that a false statement is false explain just how Trump has become so successful in politics in the U.S. Of course, that success requires the wilful ignorance, an unwillingness to learn or accept accurate information and extreme gullibleness infecting permanently tens of millions which is not going to change.

Federal judge orders Trump administration to pay SNAP benefits out of contingency fund Trump is deliberately violating the law in withholding those benefits, but he could care less of course. SNAP benefits have to paid by law even during a government shutdown.

Trump's GOP is not a conservative party in the American tradition and can not be salvaged as one IMO.

+++ 

1. Small Common Stock Purchases: 

Recognizing the certainty that my interest income from T Bills and corporate bonds will be lower next year compared to 2025, I am gingerly increasing my monetary exposure to dividend paying stocks, mostly stocks that have over 4% dividend yields at my purchase prices. The weighted average dividend yield for all stocks purchased each week will generally be in the 5% to 7% range. 

A. Added 25 PINE at $13.7 - Fidelity Account:  

Quote: Alpine Income Property Trust Inc. (PINE) - Single Tenant Net Lease REIT

Cost: $342.5

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Management: Externally managed by a wholly owned subsidiary of CTO Realty Growth Inc (CTO). CTO owns, in the aggregate, 1,223,854 OP Units and 1,138,621 shares of PINE's common shares. 10-Q at page 30 

As of 9/30/25, PINE "owned 128 properties, including the three properties classified as commercial loans and investments, with an aggregate gross leasable area of 4.1 million square feet, located in 34 states, with a weighted average remaining lease term of 8.7 years." 

Top Tenants as of 9/30/25: 

Occupancy was at 99%.  

PINE will also make commercial loans and investments. 

10-Q at page 18

I do not have enough information to form an opinion about the risks associated with those loans and investments. 

I had a positive reaction to the third quarter report discussed below. 

Past impairment charges have negatively impacted the stock price IMO:

"During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, the Company recorded $1.9 million and $6.6 million of impairment charges . . . The impairments during the nine months ended September 30, 2025 are related to the following properties: (i) three convenience store properties, which are classified as held for sale; (ii) a property formerly leased to Party City; (iii) a property leased to At Home; (iv) a property formerly leased to Century Theater Center; and (v) three properties leased to Walgreens. Two of the three properties leased to Walgreens were classified as held for sale as of March 31, 2025, and subsequently sold during the three months ended June 30, 2025. One of the convenience store properties classified as held for sale as of June 30, 2025 and the property formerly leased to Century Theater Center were sold during the three months ended September 30, 2025." 10-Q at page 21 

Hopefully most of the impairments are in the rear view mirror. 

Last Discussed: Item # 3.G. Added to PINE in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $13.69 (8/26/25 Post) I discussed the 2025 second quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release; SEC Filed Slide Presentation

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 4.E. Pared PINE - Sold Highest Cost 15 Shares at $18.47 (8/29/24 Post)

New Average cost per share this account: $14.32 (100+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 10/24 after add

While I will be reinvesting the dividend for as long as the reinvestment price reduces my average cost per share, I will not otherwise buy more shares in this account. I will be gradually taking a position in my Schwab account up to 100 shares. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.285 per share ($1.14 annually), last raised from $.28 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment. In 2020, the dividend was at $.20. 

PINE Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha 

Yield at $14.32: 7.96%

Yield at $13.7 Purchase Price: 8.32%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/11/25 (owned 75+ in this account as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Diluted Share Outstanding: 15.382+M

Revenues: $14.563M

GAAP E.P.S. ($.09)

FFO per share: $.46, up from $.45 

AFFO per share: $.46, up from $.44

9 Month AFFO per share: $1.34, up from $1.3. 

Reconciliation: 

Raised AFFO per share guidance from $1.74-$1.77 to $1.82-$1.85:

Subsequent to the third quarter, the company entered into a "hard money" contract to sell a Walgreens store for $5.5M with the closing expected before year end. 

B. Added 5 PINE at $13.73+ in Schwab Account: 

Cost: $68.68

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

See Item #1.A. above: 

New average cost per share this account: $15.16 (75+ shares)

I am reinvesting the dividend in this account. 

Yield at New AC: 7.52%  

Maximum position this account: 100 shares

C. Restarted LTC - Bought 10 at $35: 

Quote: LTC Properties Inc.  (LTC) 

Cost $250

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

LTC SEC Filings 

LTC's "primary seniors housing and health care property classifications include skilled nursing centers (“SNF”), independent living communities (“ILF”), assisted living communities (“ALF”), memory care communities (“MC”) and combinations thereof. We also invest in other (“OTH”) types of properties, such as land parcels, projects under development (“UDP”) and behavioral health care hospitals."

Some properties are subject to triple net leases:

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 11 

During the first half, some triple net leased properties were converted into LTC's "Shop" segment:

10-Q at page at page 12. 

SHOP stands for "Senior Housing Operating Portfolio". 

SHOP properties as of 6/30/25: 

10-Q at page 16

LTC also invests in mortgage loans:  

10-Q at page 18

LTC also invests in notes receivable: 

10-Q at page 21

Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Sold 10 LTC at $39.42 (6/14/2018 Post)(profit snapshot = $17.18) 

From my perspective, I like the dividend yield and monthly dividend payments but I am wary of REITs that have significant lease exposure to nursing home/senior living operators.  

Dividend: Monthly at $.19 per share ($2.28 annually)

LTC Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $35 TC = 6.514%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/23/25 (owned all as of)

Recent News: LTC Sells Two Skilled Nursing Centers (10/7/25). The dispositions will generate $42M in proceeds and about a $26M gain.  

Last Earnings Report (6/30/25): The 3rd quarter report is scheduled for release on 11/5/25.

SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental 

Revenue: $60.240

GAAP E.P.S. = $.32, down from $.44

Core FFO per diluted share: $.68, up from $.67

FAD per share: $.71, up from $.66

FAD: Funds Available for Distribution

Quarterly Dividend Per Share: $.57

FAD Excess over Dividend: $.14 per share 

I view FAD as the most important of the cash flow numbers. The primary reason for owning REIT stocks from my perspective is the dividend. Having the quarterly FAD per share higher than the quarterly dividend provides support for the dividend and militates against a cut. 

Reconciliation: 

2025 Guidance: 

D. Restarted FFBC - Bought 10 at $24.26; 5 at $23.85; 5 at $23.5: 

Quote: First Financial Bancorp (Ohio) (FFBC)

Cost: $479.35

FFBC is a bank holding company whose subsidiary, First Financial Bank, operates "127 full service banking centers as of September 30, 2025, located in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky and Illinois." 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

FFBC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

FFBC SEC Filings

Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Sold 60+ at $21.52 (3/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $358.63) 

Average cost per share: $23.97 (20 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 10/30/25 after last add

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last raised from $.24 effective for the 2025 third quarter. The rate was at $.16 in the 2025 4th quarter. I did own the stock when several special dividends were paid back in 2011-2013.  

FFBC Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $23.97: 4.172%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/2/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): 

SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Earnings Presentation 

Quarterly Comparisons are to the 2024 third quarter. 

Diluted E.P.S. = $.75, up from $.55

Consensus at $.75 per Fidelity. 

Diluted E.P.S. 9 months: $2.02, up from $1.72

FTE NIM 4.02%, down from 4.08%

Charge off ratio: .18%  

NPA Ratio: .41% (nonperforming assets to total assets)

NPL Ratio: .65%, up from .57%

Coverage Ratio 213.16% (existence allowance for credit losses to nonperforming loans)

ROA = 1.54%

ROTE: 19.11%

Total Capital Ratio: 15.32%

Tangible Book Value per share: $16.19, up from $14.26

Other Sell Discussions: Item # 5.A. Pared FFBC in Fidelity Account- Sold 20+ at $25.5 and Item # 5.B. Eliminated FFBC in Vanguard Account -Sold 10 at $25.89 (11/29/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $184.33); Item # 1.N. Pared FFBC in Fidelity Account - Sold 25 Shares at $26.2 - Highest Cost Lots (4/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $30.91); Item # 3.A. Sold 84+ FFBC at $28.1 (3/24/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,129.21); Item # 4 Sold 52 FFBC at $21.25-Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 8/18/2016 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $280.72); Item # 1 Sold 50 FFBC at $20.11-Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 7/12/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $215.98); Item # 3 Sold 50 FFBC at $19.25 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 5/4/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $52.76); Item # 4 Sold 57 FFBC at $17.03-Highest Cost Shares (12/23/13)(profit snapshot = $37.68)

FFBC Realized Gains to Date: $2,515.54

E. Restarted AROW - Bought 10 at $27.3 - Fidelity Account: 

Quote: Arrow Financial Corp. (AROW)  - Bank Holding Company

Cost: $273

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

AROW SEC Filings

AROW  Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch There is only 1 analyst estimate for this small bank holding company. As of 10/28/25, the E.P.S. estimate for 2025 was at $2.65 and at $2.96 in 2026. 

Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Eliminated AROW - Sold 12 at $27.15 (7/22/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $13.55). I discussed the 2025 first quarter report in that post. I had an unfavorable reaction to it. SEC Filed Press Release  I had a positive response to the second quarter report released after I eliminated the position. E.P.S. increased to $.65 from $.52 in the 2024 second quarter. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/25 I decided to restart the position ahead of the third quarter earnings release, just in case that report reflected a positive trend in operating metrics.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 per share ($1.16 annually), last raised from $.28 per share effective for the 2025 third quarter payment.  

AROW Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $27.3: 4.1%

Last Ex Dividend: 8/11/25

Next Ex Dividend: 11/12/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): This report was released shortly after my purchase. 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Comparisons are to the 2024 third quarter. 

Key Performance Metrics: 

E.P.S.  $.77, up from $.53 

The one analyst estimate was at $.72. 

FTE NIM 3.24%, up from 2.79% 

FTE = Federally Tax Equivalent 

Efficiency Ratio: 59.56%, down from 65.59% (down is better)

Efficiency Ratio Explained: Definition, Formula, and Banking Example

NPL Ratio: .18%

Coverage Ratio: 541.96%

Total Risk Based Capital Ratio: 14.86%, up from 14.46%

Tangible Book Value per share: $23.85, up from $21.95

Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Eliminated AROW - Sold 25+ at $30.11 (7/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $126.87); Item # 2.K. Eliminated AROW in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $32.7 and Item # 2.L. Eliminated AROW in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $33.15 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $121.87); Item # 1.C. Sold 15 AROW at $36.1 (2/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.99); Item # 1. Sold 52+ AROW at $37.5 (7/2/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $661.34); Item # 5.A. Sold 100 AROW at $34.7 (4/23/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $62.04) 

Prior History of 3% Stock Dividends: In the past, AROW paid several 3% annual stock dividends. The last one was in 2023. Arrow Financial Corporation Declares Stock Dividend; Arrow (AROW) Stock Split History - Investing.com

AROW Realized Gains to Date: $1,025.72

F. Started PFS in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $18.57; 5 at $18.3: 

Quote: Provident Financial Services Inc. (PFS)

Cost: $184.35

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

PFS is a bank holding company that owns Provident Bank that "provides a comprehensive array of financial products and services through its network of branches throughout New Jersey, Bucks, Lehigh and Northampton counties in Pennsylvania, as well as Orange, Queens and Nassau Counties in New York."

Last Discussed: Item # 2.E. Added to PFS in Schwab Account  - Bought 5 at $16  (6/18/25 Post) The average cost per share in my Schwab account is $16.35. 

PFS SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 (E.P.S. at $.55; NIM at 3.36%; Efficiency ratio at 53.52%; NPL ratio at .53%; NPA Ratio at .45%; Coverage Ratio at 185.78%; Charge off ratio at .03%; Tangible book value per share at $14.6)

PFS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 10/29/25, the average 2026 E.P.S. estimate was at $2.32, up from $2.07 this year, and at $2.5 in 2027. If that trajectory actually happens, the stock is IMO undervalued using both forward P/E and PEG ratios with dividend support. 

PFS SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report

Average cost per share: $18.44 (10 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually), last raised from $.23 effective for the 2021 4th quarter payment. PFS did not raise or cut its dividend during the Near Depression period, keeping the penny rate at $.11 in 2008-2010 and then raised the quarterly dividend to $.12 effective for the 2012 second quarter payment. 

PFS Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

In the 2015 4th quarter, the quarterly dividend was at $.17. 

Yield at $18.44: 5.206%

Last Ex Dividend: 8/15/25

Last Earnings Report (9/30/25): Released after my purchase.

E.P.S. was reported in line. 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Financial Highlights: 

Comparisons are to the 2024 third quarter: 

E.P.S. $.55, up from $.36. 

The 2024 third quarter GAAP E.P.S. included $15.6 in expenses related to Provident's acquisition of Lakeland Bancorp. That acquisition added "$10.91 billion to total assets, $7.91 billion to loans, and $8.62 billion to deposits, net of purchase accounting adjustments."  

NIM: 3.43%, up from 3.31%

Efficiency Ratio: 51.01%, down from 57.2% (down is good)

NPL Ratio: .41%, unchanged

Charge off ratio: .11%, down from .14%

Coverage Ratio: 186.21%

Tangible Book Value per share: $15.13, up from $13.66. 

"total deposits increased $387.7 million, or 8.22% annualized, to $19.10 billion as of September 30, 2025, from $18.71 billion as of June 30, 2025, while total core deposits, which excludes certificates of deposits, increased $290.8 million, or 7.47% annualized, to $15.73 billion as of September 30, 2025, from $15.44 billion as of June 30, 2025." 

"commercial and industrial ("C&I") loan portfolio, excluding mortgage warehouse lines, increased $149.0 million, or 12.61% annualized, to $4.84 billion as of September 30, 2025, from $4.69 billion as of June 30, 2025. Additionally, the Company's total commercial loan portfolio, including mortgage warehouse lines, commercial mortgage, multi-family and construction loans, increased $191.2 million, or 4.59% annualized, to $16.70 billion as of September 30, 2025, from $16.51 billion as of June 30, 2025."

G. Started BHB in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $29.5: 

Quote: Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB)

Cost: $147.5

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

BHB SEC Filings

SEC Filed Earnings Press Releass for the Q/E 9/30/25 

Yield at $29.5: 4.34%

I discussed this small regional bank in my last post and have nothing further to add here. 

H. Added to UDR - Bought 5 at $35; 5 at $34 - Schwab Account:

Quote: UDR Inc. (UDR) - Apartment REIT 

Cost: $345

UDR is a component of the S&P 500. 

UDR SEC Filings

UDR 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/25 

Corporate Profile | UDR, Inc.

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Last Discussed: Item # 1. Added to UDR - Bought 5 at $36.3; 5 at $35.9; 3 at  $34.54 (10/11/25 Post) 

Apartments as of 9/30/25: 55,808 owned

SEC Filed Supplemental at page 10  

New Average cost per share: $39 (60+ shares)

I will keep averaging down in 5 share lots, provided each subsequent purchase is at the lowest price in the chain, until I hit 100 shares.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.43 per share ($1.72 annually), last raised from $.425 per share effective for the 2025 second quarter payment. In the 2015 4th quarter, the quarterly dividend was $.2775.  

UDR Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

I am reinvesting the dividend and will continue to do so for as long as the likely reinvestment prices reduce my average cost per share.  

Yield at $39: 4.41%

Yield at Last Purchase Price of $34: 5.06%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/9/25

5 Year Chart: I would describe this chart as a Bear Market Pattern starting with a double top formation near $58 in 2022. Most of the decline has occurred within the year with the 52 week high at $46.62 as of 10/30/25.

Last Earnings Report (9/30/25): This report was released after the market closed on 10/29/25. 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Revenues: 431.9M, up 2.8% Y-O-Y. 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.12

FFO per share: $.62

FFO as adjusted per share: $.65, up from $.62 in the 2024 third quarter. 

AFFO per share: $.56. The AFFO calculation deducts $32.238M in recurring capital expenditures (maintenance) from the FFO as adjusted number. I view AFFO as calculated by UDR as the most important of the cash flow numbers. 

Reconciliation: 

SEC Filed Supplemental at page 3  

"Repurchased approximately 651 thousand shares of its common stock at a weighted average share price of $38.37 for total consideration of approximately $25.0 million. Furthermore, subsequent to quarter-end, the Company repurchased an additional 277 thousand shares of its common stock at a weighted average share price of $36.14 for total consideration of approximately $10.0 million." The company needs to become even more aggressive in stock purchases near the current price IMO. 

2025 Outlook: Adjusted FFO per share $2.44-$2.46

Same Store Physical Occupancy: 96.6%

I view that occupancy level as a good one. 

I. Added to FNLC in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $25.2; 5 at $24.5 

Quote: First Bancorp Inc. (FNLC)

Cost  = $248.5

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy 

FNLC SEC Filings

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/25

New Average cost per share this account: $25.03 (15 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.37 per share ($1.48 annually), last raised from $.36 effective for the 2025 third quarter payment. 

FNLC Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

In the 2015 4th quarter, the quarterly dividend was at $.22. 

The dividend was raised, not cut, during the 2008 Near Depression period. The economic collapse and massive bank failures did result in no dividend raises after a .$005 increase  to $.195 in the 2008 4th quarter until the 2014 1st quarter when there was a hike to $.20.

Starting in 2018, the dividend growth rate accelerated, compared to 2008 to 2018, going from $.22 in the 2018 first quarter to the current quarterly dividend of $.37 

Yield at $25.03 : 5.913%

Yield at $24.5 Purchase Price: 6.04%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/6/25 (owned 35 in my Schwab account as of) 

I discussed FNLC in my last post and have nothing further to add here:  Item # 1.I. Added 5 FNLC in Schwab Account at $25.35 and Item # 1.J. Started Duplicate Position in FNLC in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $25.4 (10/25/25 Post) 

FNLC Realized Gains to Date: $1,339.54

J. Added to Falling Knife CLX - Bought 1 at $115; 1 at $113.75; 1 at $112.1:

Quote: Clorox Co.  (CLX)

Cost: $340.85 

Brands | The Clorox Company

I view the primary products to those sold under the Clorox and Glad brands: Cleaning & Disinfecting Products | Clorox™; Kitchen Trash Bags, Food Wraps & Storage Solutions | Glad® Other brands include Hidden Valley Ranch (owning salad dressings makes no sense to me); Kingsford charcoal; Brita (water filters); Pine-Sol, Liquid-Plumr, Burt's Bees (skin and lip products); and Fresh Step (cat litter) as well as several international brands including Chux, Clorinda and Poett. 

CLX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (fiscal years end on 6/30/25) The estimates for fiscal 2026 explains the stock weakness, a flatlining of E.P.S. year-over-year, but that is probably entirely or mostly baked into the current price.  

The estimate for 2026 of $6.18 is for the 2026 fiscal year. As explained in my last post, the adjusted E.P.S. of $2.87 for the 4th fiscal quarter of 2025 included  a temporary benefit of $.85-$.95 per share related to building "retailer inventory  in advance of the enterprise resource planning transition in the U.S. (incremental ERP shipments). 

The fiscal 2026 year adjusted E.P.S. estimate of $5.6-$5.95 from Clorox includes a reversal of the $.85 to $.95 cent of ERP implementation in the 2025 fiscal 4th quarter. 

While many investors will sell or buy headlines, and may react negatively to lower earnings in fiscal 2026, the issue for me is the flatlining of E.P.S. year-over-year when I take away the midpoint of $.85- $.95 per share in fiscal 2025 ($.9) and add it back to the estimated 2026 earnings   

After making those adjustments, the current estimates for fiscal 2027 and 2028 do not have meaningful growth baked into them, compared to fiscal 2026, at $6.95 and $7.19 respectively.   

When making judgments about contrarian value, I am forecasting a meaningful possibility that investors are being too pessimistic about future earnings that have depressed the current price. The reverse also occurs as investors project substantial growth in earnings over a longer period of time that will have to occur just to justify the current price. 

CLX SEC Filings

Investment Categories: Contrarian Value/Bond Substitute with a flavor of Dividend Growth and Pacifier for Old Geezer.  

New average cost per share:  $118.43 (8+ shares)  

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.24 per share ($4.96 annually), last raised from $1.22 effective for the 2025 third quarter payment. 

CLX Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

I am reinvesting the dividend. 

Yield at $118.43: 4.19%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/22/25 (owned 4 as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in my last post. Item # 1.N. Added to CLX - Bought 1 at $116.49 (10/25/25); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release This report was for the 4th fiscal quarter in the 2025 fiscal year.  The next earnings report is scheduled for release on 11/3/25.  

K. Added to MAA - Bought 1 $130.88; 1 at $128; 1 at $126.9:

Quote: Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA) - A Large Apartment REIT

Cost: $385.78

MAA is a component of the S&P 500. 

Apartment units as of 9/30/25: 102,154

SEC Filing 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Apartment REITs are in a funk. Occupancy levels are good. Rent increases, restrained in part by competition and over building in some markets, are not sufficient, or just barely so to cover the significant inflation in operating costs including the cost of labor and building materials over the past 4 years that are required in routine maintenance. 

This data in MAA's 3rd quarter earnings press release highlight this issue:  

Another restraint on rent increases is the financial stress of many renters who have experience over the past several years major percentage increases in rent payments and other expenses caused in major part by inflation. There was in 2022-2024 some upward pressure on borrowing costs due to higher short and longer term rates.       

New average cost per share: $132.67 (7+ shares)

I will continue to average down in 1 share lots, provided each subsequent purchase is at the lowest price in the chain. 

I will generally reinvest the dividend when I am willing to buy shares at the likely dividend price and 2 of the following conditions are present: (1) I want to average down randomly; (2) I own the stock in two accounts and will be taking a cash dividend in one account while reinvesting the dividend in the other; (3) there is a tax advantage to the dividend compared to MM fund dividends or T Bill interest and/or (4) the  yield on the shares purchased with dividends will likely be higher than the 3 month T Bill yield or the sweep account MM fund yield where the cash payment would otherwise be deposited. 

Last Elimination: Item # 1.E. Eliminated MAA - Sold 5 at $169.88 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $222.26)

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.515 per share ($6.06 annually)

I have started to reinvest the dividend. 

Yield at $132.67: 4.57%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/15/25 (owned 3 as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): 

SEC Filing 

Physical occupancy at 95.6%

Average effective monthly rent per unit: $1,693

Revenue: $554.373M, up from $551.126M in the 2024 third quarter 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.84

FFO per share: $2.14

Core FFO per share: $2.16

Core AFFO per share: $1.81, down from $1.93 in the 2024 third quarter

9 month Core AFFO per share: $5.7, down from $5.91.   

The core AFFO per share has only 1 adjustment from core FFO and that is "recurring capital expenditures" of $41.666M, up from $33.535M in the 2024 third quarter. For the nine months ending on 9/30/25, the company spent $97.155M on maintenance, up from $88.1M.

Reconciliation: 

2025 Guidance: Core AFFO per share at $7.7 to $7.82

SEC Filing at page S-11 

L. Added to Placeholder CL - Bought 1 at $77.13; 1 at $76; 1 at $75 :

Quote: Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) 

Cost: $228.13 

Colgate-Palmolive is focused "on Oral Care, Personal Care, Home Care and Pet Nutrition, we sell our products in more than 200 countries and territories under brands such as Colgate, Palmolive, elmex, hello, meridol, Sorriso, Tom’s of Maine, EltaMD, Filorga, Irish Spring, Lady Speed Stick, PCA SKIN, Protex, Sanex, Softsoap, Speed Stick, Ajax, Axion, Fabuloso, Murphy, Soupline and Suavitel, as well as Hill’s Science Diet, Hill’s Prescription Diet and Prime100."

Investment Category: Pacifier for the Old Geezer. I am not worried about a collapse in earnings and revenues. 

Our Brands | Colgate-Palmolive

CL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 10/23/25, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2026 was at $4.01 and at $4.12 in 2027. With this kind of E.P.S. growth, I view a 15 to 17 multiple on the $4.01 estimate as a reasonable valuation range for this company or a price between $60.15 and $68.17. 

Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Restarted CL as a Placeholder - Bought 1 at  $77.83 (10/25/25 Post) 

Last Sell Discussions: Item # 5.D. Eliminated CL in Schwab Account - Sold 3 at $76.87 (11/29/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.84); Item # 4.C. Eliminated CL in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $81.51  (5/5/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.98) 

New Average cost per share: $76.49 (4 shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.52 per share ($2.08), last raised from $.50 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment

CL Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

CL has increased its dividend for 62 consecutive years and is consequently one of the Dividend Aristocrats. List of Dividend Aristocrats (25+ Years of Dividend Growth) This is a positive long term, but I am not thinking long term given my age. 

I do not find that dividend yield to be attractive which is one reason I have classified purchases of this stock as a Placeholder. The other reasons are valuation using traditional criteria and slow dividend growth given my age as the important consideration.

I will add to my position in 1 or 2 share positions with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. The low dividend yield will restrain the dollar value of my purchases as will the historical difficulty in achieving a satisfactory total return.  

Yield at $76.49 : 2.72%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/17/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): This report was released shortly after my first two one share purchases. I bought 1 additional share during the choppy up and down trading on 10/31/25. 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Revenues: $5.131B, up from $5.033B

"Net sales increased 2.0%; Organic sales* increased 0.4%, including a 0.8% negative impact from lower private label pet sales having exited that non-strategic business."

Volume fell 1.5% while pricing increased 2.3%. 

Worldwide Share of Toothpaste at 41.2%

Worldwide share of manual toothbrushes at 32.4%

GAAP E.P.S. = $.91, up from $.9

Consensus at $.888 per Fidelity

2025 Outlook: 

K. Added 1 to GIS at $46.68 - Fidelity Account: 

Quote: General Mills Inc. (GIS)

To recover significant input cost increases starting in 2021, packaged food companies raised prices that caused meaningful declines in volume. Profit margins and profits have consequently been under pressure, resulting in a bear market for stocks in this sector.  

Our brands - General Mills

GIS SEC Filings

New average cost per share: $54.01 (59+ shares) The average cost and per share numbers do not include the .729 shares purchased with a reinvested dividend at $46.54 that will be credited on 11/3/25.

I am now in a 1 share buy mode with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain until the price falls below $45 when I will switch to 2 shares with the same price restriction. This is a risk mitigation strategy when I am unable to determine when results will improve but still have faith that they will.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.61 per share ($2.44 annually)

GIS Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

I am currently reinvesting the dividend as a means to average down randomly and will continue doing so for as long as the likely reinvestment price reduces my average cost per share. 

Yield at $54.01: 4.518%

Yield at $46.68: 5.23%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/10/25 (owned 55+ as of)

Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 8/24/25): I discussed this report in my last post: Item # 1.G. Added to GIS - Bought 1 at  $48.32; 1 at $47.64;  1 at $47.29 (10/25/25 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release

GIS Realized Gains to Date Starting in 2007: $3,081.68  (Links are in the previously linked post. I do not have snapshots of the profits realized prior to 2007. I not yet sold shares for a loss) 

L. Added to KMB - Bought 1 at $118: 

Quote: Kimberly-Clark Corp.

KMB sells its products in 175 countries and territories. The brands include "Huggies, Kleenex, Scott, Kotex, Cottonelle, Poise, Depend, Andrex, Pull-Ups, Goodnites, Intimus, Plenitud, Sweety, Softex, Viva and WypAll, hold No. 1 or No. 2 share positions in approximately 70 countries"

Investment Categories: Bond Substitute with a flavor of dividend growth and Pacifier for the Old Geezer. 

SEC Filings

KMB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Added to KMB - Bought 1 at $120 (10/18/25 Post) 

Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated Remaining KMB in Fidelity Account - Sold 5+ at $137.87 (1/3/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.8)

New average cost per share: $121.74 (5 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.26 per share ($5.04 annually), last raised from $1.22 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment. The quarterly dividend was at $.88 per share in 2015 and $.4313 in 2005

KMB Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Consecutive Years of dividend growth: 52 but the rate of growth has slowed significantly over the past 10 years compared to the prior ten year period. 

Yield at $121.74: 4.14%

Yield at Last Purchase Price of $118: 4.27%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/5/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): SEC Filed Press Release 

Revenues: $4.15B

E.P.S. = $1.34

Adjusted E.P.S. = $1.82 (prior year included a $1.34 per share gain from selling its personal protection business)

Reconciliation: 

The reference to the IFP business refers to the International Family Care. KMB is in the process of selling a majority interest in that business to Brazil's Suzano. Kimberly-Clark sells majority stake in international tissue unit to Brazil's Suzano (9/5/25); Kimberly-Clark Announces Major Step Forward in its Powering Care Transformation ("Kimberly-Clark will own a 49% interest in the new venture, which will include substantially all the assets of its International Family Care and Professional ("IFP") business, and Suzano will own 51%") Suzano will pay KMB about $1.73B for its 51% stake. 

Brief Summary of Problems IMO: Identifying these issues is important since it will influence whether or not to buy any shares and, if I buy, the amount that I will invest and how I will structure the purchases (per share amounts, each share must reduce my average cost per share vs. each share must be at the lowest price in the chain; and the percentage price differences in subsequent purchases compared to earlier ones)

I would generally describe the problems as problematic input cost inflation and competition from store brands and lower priced foreign manufactured products.  

For consumer product companies, the problematic input cost inflation in the 2021-2023 period reduced demand, caused brand substitution and decreased profit margins. While input cost increases moderated in 2024, the republican tariff taxes are a significant new source of input cost inflation. Trying to recover higher input costs through price increases results in lower consumer demand. 

2. Small Ball Stock Sales: 

A. Pared IRM - Sold 1 at $106.1 - Fidelity Account: 

Quote: Iron Mountain Inc (IRM) - A Paper and Digital Storage REIT 

Investment Category: 

Iron Mountain - Investor Relations

SEC Filings

2024 SEC Filed Annual Report

Last Discussed: Item # 4.C. Pared IRM -Sold 1 at 100.8 (7/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $77.22)(discussed issues that I have with adjustments made to normalized FFO calculation); Item # 2.A. Pared IRM -Sold 3 at $109.83 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $257.65) 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.E. Started IRM in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 10 at $26.8; 5 at $25.8; 5 at $25.25; 5 at $24.9 (12/5/20 Post)

Profit Snapshot: $83.66 (10/24/25 sale only)

New Average cost per share: $21.6 (8 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 10/24/25 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.785 per share ($3.14 annually)

IRM Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $21.6 Average Cost per share: 14.54%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/15/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Revenues: $1.712B

GAAP E.P.S. ($.15)

Adjusted GAAP E.P.S. = $.48 

Reconciliation GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

FFO as Defined by NAREIT = $.21

Normalized FFO = $.87

GAAP to Normalized FFO Calculation: 

There are a number of cash expense categories that are added back to GAAP: Acquisition and Integration Costs, Restructuring on Other Transformation ($50.34M), and the other expense that is reported at $80.698M. The total add back for those 3 categories is $135.853M.

Given the recurring nature of those expenses, though the amounts will vary, they have a continuous negative impact on cash available for distribution and are consequently questionable add back adjustments in a normalized funds from operations calculation.  

AFFO per share = $1.24

The AFFO calculation starts with the normalized funds from operations. Since I am uncomfortable with how IRM arrives at normalized FFO, I am not willing to accept the AFFO number. 

Even if I accepted all of the add backs, and I do not, the price to AFFO (P/AFF0) Is high. The AFFO for the 4 quarters ending on 6/30/25 was $4.62 and the P/AFFO using that TTM AFFO number and the $106.1 per share price is 22.97. I am uncomfortable with the current valuation even if I accepted all of the adjustments. 

Some Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.F. Pared IRM - Sold 2 at $100  (7/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $150.29); Item # 1.J. Eliminated IRM in Vanguard Account - Sold 3 at $54.25 (2/13/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $98.68); Item # 4.G. Sold 1 IRM in Fidelity Taxable Account at $55.04 (9/20/22 Post)(profit = $29.61); Item # 3 Eliminated IRM in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 19+ at $57.73  (5/5/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $631.54) Item # 2.H. Pared IRM in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 1 at $47.58 (10/10/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.6); Item #1.A. Sold 3 IRM in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 3 at $49.12 (10/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $86.06); Item # 2.K. Pared IRM in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $44.18 Item #2.L. Pared IRM in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 1 at $46.19; and Item # 2.M. Pared IRM in Schwab Taxable-Sold 1 at $46.93  (6/19/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $122.41); Item # 1.K. Sold 5 IRM at $37.69 (4/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $76.42); Item # 1.L. Sold 5 IRM in Schwab Account at $36.42 and Item #1.M. Sold 2.731 in Fidelity Account at $36.86 (4/1/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $73.38); Item #1.B. Sold 2 IRM at $35.63; 5 at $36.8 in Fidelity Taxable (2/27/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $54.15) ; Item # 1.B. Pared IRM-Sold 15 at $33.04 (2/22/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $36.73); Item # 1.C. Sold 10 IRM at $33.91-Used Commission Free Trade (12/26/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.24 ); Item # 4 Sold 50 IRM at $33.82 Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $398.06)

IRM Realized Gains to Date: $2,273.94

B. Eliminated VSH - Sold 10 at $17.26: 

Quote: Vishay Intertechnology Inc. (VSH)

Proceeds: $172.6

"Vishay manufactures one of the world’s largest portfolios of discrete semiconductors and passive electronic components that are essential to innovative designs in the automotive, industrial, computing, consumer, telecommunications, military, aerospace, and medical markets."

While demand for new automobiles has been resilient, notwithstanding higher prices and becoming increasingly unaffordable for millions, I attribute most of that resiliency to customers buying before tariffs can significantly impact the prices for the next model year and consequently moves forward purchases that would have been made in 2026.  

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

VSH SEC Filings

VSH Profile Page at Reuters

VSH Key Metrics

VSH  Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Profit: $14.74

Last Discussed: Item # 2.H. Bought 10 VSH at $15.79 (7/3/25 Post) I discussed the 2025 first quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release

Dividend: Quarterly at $.10 per share

Yield at $17.26: 2.32%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/11/25

VSH Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): This report was released after my purchase and I had an unfavorable reaction to it. 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Revenues: $762.3M

E.P.S. $.01, down from $.17

Non-GAAP E.P.S. ($.07)

New Consider to Buy Price: <$14

C. Pared HR - Sold 20+ at $18.74: 

Quote: Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. (HR) - Primarily a medical office REIT. 

Proceeds: $378.06

Investment Category: 

619 properties with 36.1M square feet as of 6/30/25. SEC Filing 

I sold all shares with a cost above $17. 

Investors responded positively to a Wells Fargo upgrade to equal weight from underweight and to a $2 increase in the PT to $18. I am not able to comprehend that response. As discussed in prior posts, I have a number of issues with this REIT. The two most serious are an inability to significantly grow funds available for distribution ("FAD") per share over a long period and the recent dividend slash. Those two issues are related in that the failure to increase FAD per share resulted in the REIT paying out more in quarterly dividends than its quarterly FAD per share. 

The end result is a poor total return in the stock over a long period of time. I have discussed these issues in several prior posts. 

I have zero confidence in the management. 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Merger: Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) and Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) Announce Closing of Merger - Healthcare Realty HR acquired HTA but HTA was the company that survived, a reverse merger. After the merger was consummated, the name of the surviving company was change to Healthcare Realty and the symbol changed from HTA to HR. Prior to the closing, HTA paid its shareholders a special dividend of $4.82 per share. I owned 50 HTA shares and received a $241 cash payment, most of the payment was classified as ROC as I recall which reduced my tax cost basis.

Both HTA and HR during their separate existence failed to increase cash available for distribution (CAD) per share over a long period of time. (e.g., in Item # 1.H discussing legacy HTA; wherein I calculated the CAD per share in the 2021 3rd quarter at $.349; at $.377 in the 2020 third quarter and at $.344 in the 2016 3rd quarter or flat over a 5 year period. In Item # 2.A. discussing Legacy HR, I noted that the CAD per share was $.33 in the 2021 4th quarter and at $.31 in the 2012 4th quarter. Pathetic IMO. 

As I have noted in the past,  "combining two entities who have proven an inability to increase CAD per share will not create one that can IMO." 

This combination, which made no sense IMO, was the brainchild of hedge fund manager Paul Singer. Elliott Investment Management urges REIT Healthcare Trust of America to explore sale | Reuters (10/11/21)

I attribute the long term poor performance for both HR and HTA, measured on a CAD per share basis, to buying Medical Office Buildings at low capitalization rates, paying out all or almost all CAD to common shareholders, and raising capital to expand through expensive acquisitions by selling shares and acquiring more debt which has become more expensive to refinance over the past 2+ years.  

Last Discussed: Item # 7B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in HR (Schwab Account) - Sold 9+ at $16.09 (7/15/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $10.32) I decided to have only a position in my Fidelity account.  

Last Purchase Discussions:  Item # 1.E. Added to HR in Fidelity Account - Bought 2 at $15.94  (7/15/25 Post); Item # 1.O. Added to HR - Bought 1 at $15.65; 1 at $14.65 (4/18/25 Post); Item # 1.I. Bought 3 HR at $16.24 - Fidelity Account (1/22/25)

Profit Snapshot: $27.11

New Average cost per share: $15.75 (76+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 10/24/25 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually), slashed from $.31 effective for the 2025 third quarter payment.  

Yield at $15.75 = 6.095%

This yield is acceptable to me as a long term hold. I do not anticipate a dividend increase for years. 

Last Ex Dividend: 8/14/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):

SEC Filed Press Release 

Revenues: $297.502M

GAAP E.P.S. ($.45)

Normalized FFO per share: $.41

Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) per share: $.3258

FAD and CAD have the same meaning. 

Calculated by dividing total FAD of $115.354 by 354.078 diluted shares outstanding. 

FAD 12 months through 2025 second quarter: $431.425M

Dividends paid out 12 months: $444.904M

Dividends exceeded FAD by $13.479M

Reconciliation GAAP to FAD: 

Maintenance expenditures is a significant deduction from the normalized FFO deduction in arriving at FAD, though the amounts will vary materially from quarter to quarter. REITs that own medical office buildings will incur substantial ongoing maintenance expenditures just like any office REIT. Of the buildings owned by HR ("same store") outside of a joint venture interest, 437 are multi-tenant and 100 are single tenant. SEC Filing at page 24 

Same store occupancy at 90.4%. Single tenant occupancy was reported at 100% with multi-tenant at 88.3%. 

Some Legacy HTA Sell Discussions: Item # 6 Pared HTA - Sold 20 at $31.8 (4/28/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $198.37); Item # 1.H. Sold 5 HTA at $31.61; 5 at $32.89 (11/11/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $96.97); (Item # 3.B. Pared HTA - Sold 10 at $28.17; 10 at $29.17 (7/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $118.58); Item # 1  Sold 2 HTA at $26.7 (5/2/20 Post)(Profit Snapshot = $7.81); Item # 2.D. Eliminated HTA-Sold 30 at $32.51 (2/8/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $178.02); Item # 1.A. Sold 10 HTA at $31.31 (1/29/20)(profit snapshot = $44.34); Item # 2.B. Sold 10 HTA at $30.81 (11/28/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $39.2);Item # 1.A. Sold 15 HTA at $28.57-Used Commission Free Trade(9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $46.12); Item # 2 Sold 50 HTA at $26.25 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 10/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha(profit snapshot = $124.1)

Largest Legacy HR Realized Gain: Item # 2 Sold 50 HR at $26.33 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 10/19/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $103.27)

Combined HR and HTA Realized Gains: $956.03 

SU Bonds: I own 12 senior unsecured bonds issued by Healthcare Realty or Healthcare Trust of America, now combined into HR as discussed above. The bonds are rated BBB/Baa2.  

All bought in 2025  

4 matured on 8/1/26; Bond Page | FINRA.org

4 mature on 7/1/27; Bond Page | FINRA.org

4 mature on 1/15/28; Bond Page | FINRA.org 

Last SU Purchase Discussions: Item #2.B. Bought 2 Healthcare Trust of America 3.625% SU Maturing on 1/15/28 at a Total Cost of 96.467 (4/15/25 Post); Item # 2.E. Bought 2 Healthcare Trust of America 3.625% SU Maturing on 1/15/28 at a Total Cost of 96.048 (3/18/25 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 2 Healthcare Realty 3.75% SU Maturing on 7/1/27 at a Total Cost of 97.287 (2/10/25 Post)

3. Treasury Bill Purchases: 

A. Bought 30 T Bills at the 10/27/25 Auction - Two Accounts: 

182 Day Bill

Matures on 4/30/26

Interest: $552.06

Investment Rate: 3.76%

B. Bought 10 T Bills at the 10/27/25 Auction: 

91 Day Bill

Matures on 1/29/26

Interest: $94.29

Investment Rate: 3.818%

C. Bought 10 T Bills at the 10/29/25 Auction - Vanguard Account: 

Normally, I do not buy T Bills in this account since the Vanguard Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund Admiral Shares (VMRXX) has the highest yield of my MM funds. With this purchase, I am simply shifting tax recognition  of income out of 2025 and into 2026 when I am 100% positive that my interest income will be lower than 2025. 

119 Day Bill

Matures on 3/3/26

Interest: $122,47

Investment Rate: 3.803%

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.