Dollar Values of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auctions: $50,000 in principal amount
Rationale: Income tax recognition was shifted into 2026 when I know that my interest income will be lower than this year and I received a higher yield than what I would earn from the funding sources.
Corporate Bonds: No trades. I am in a hold mode with an overweight even after selling about 120 since mid-July 2025.
I am receiving a constant flow of early redemptions, including this one on 10/15:
Inflow Common Stock Purchases: $1,923.34
Outflow Common Stock/Stock Fund: $853.97
Realized Gains Stocks/Stock Funds: $365.34
Net Inflow Common Stock/Stock Funds: $1,069.37
‘Expensive, but not nutty.’ Howard Marks on U.S. stocks and the one thing investors should be doing right now-MarketWatch (subscription publication) Referring to a JPM chart published late last year when the S&P 500 P/E was at 23, Marks noted that the historical data on the average return over a ten year period was between +2% to -2%. Using a "defcon" table of 1 to 6 where a 1 is go short, Marks classified the stock market at a 5 defined as reducing aggressive holdings and increasing defensive ones. IMO, Marks is underestimating the potential downside risk in stocks and the risk/reward balance now.
Bank of America now sees $65 silver, as price spike reduces London market to a ‘state of seizure.’ - MarketWatch (10/13/25, subscription publication) The article notes that physical demand exceeds supply The silver ETFs need more silver to back the shares. Silver Tops $50 Record in 'Serious' Squeeze (My Video: Parabolic Spikes in Gold and Silver Prices - YouTube, noting that parabolic spikes have a tendency to collapse upon themselves)
The long bond yield is heading below 4% and gold to $6,000 by next spring, predicts Bank of America-MarketWatch (10/17/25, subscription publication)
+++
Economy:
Tariff costs to companies this year to hit $1.2 trillion, with consumers taking most of the hit, S&P says Trump says the tariffs are paid by foreign countries rather than the U.S. importers. Fact-checking Trump's claims that tariffs are a "tax on a foreign country" - YouTube It is just a fact that the republicans in Congress have blocked a vote on Trump's tariff taxes and are consequently equally responsible for them. House again votes to surrender tariff powers to Trump-POLITICO House and Senate republicans do not avoid responsibility by refusing to vote. It is Congress, not the President, who has the constitutional power to set tariffs.
How much Trump tariffs are costing small businesses
For the fiscal year ending 9/30/25, the federal government had a $1.78 trillion dollar budget deficit, down 2.2% from the fiscal 2024 deficit. Interest on the national debt for the 2025 fiscal year rose $100B to $1.2T. U.S. budget deficit lower in 2025; tariffs, debt payments both at records
Fed's Powell suggests tightening program could end soon, opens door to rate cuts Quantitative tightening in this context refers to a process where the FED quits reducing the size of its balance sheet. Proceeds from maturing bonds, bills and mortgage backed securities will be reinvested into new purchases. Since the FED's balance sheet went over $9 trillion during the last Q/E program, with M2 growing by 41% over a 26 month time period to fund those FED purchases, I would view maintaining the balance sheet at current levels, near $6.6 trillion through more purchases to be the resumption of a light Q/E program rather than the end of quantitative tightening.
Federal Reserve Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation)- St. Louis Fed:
M2 - St. Louis Fed
M2 Money Supply Growth vs. Inflation - Updated Chart | LongtermTrends
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average - St. Louis Fed:
Here's why beef prices are soaring - YouTube; Beef prices hit record highs in 2025: Shortages loom; From beef to beans: How will tariffs shift trade with Brazil? - Michigan Farm News One reason for the price surge is the new republican tariff taxes, particularly the 50% republican tariff tax on beef imported from Brazil which is only starting to impact U.S. prices. In addition to the 50% republican tariff tax, there is another 26.4% republican tariff tax on Brazil's beef exports that exceed 65,000 metric tons annually. Brazil's beef exports to China jump 38% in September amid US tariffs | Reuters This shift in supply for the U.S. market will caused shortages and price increases for U.S. consumers in addition to the republican tariff tax pass through.
Trump started with a 10% "reciprocal" tariff tax on Brazil's exports to the U.S. that were imposed last April. The other 40% was unilaterally imposed by Trump in August.
Why did Trump unilaterally impose a 40% tax in addition to the 10% reciprocal republican tariff tax on Brazil's exports. Prior to imposing the tariffs, the U.S. had a trade surplus with Brazil, so one may ask why was the reciprocal 10% tax levied by Trump. The reason for the additional 40% is that Brazil prosecuted Trump's buddy, the former President Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly engaging in a coup d'etat that Trump calls a "witch hunt". Trump's Brazil tariffs are more about political revenge: analysis Bolsonaro was convicted in September and sentenced to 27 years in prison.
So Trump decided to raise beef and coffee prices to U.S. consumers because Brazil was criminally prosecuting his buddy, for allegedly attempting a coup against the lawfully elected President Lula de Silva. Trump hits Brazil with tariffs over Bolsonaro trial | DW News - YouTube; Trump's tariffs over treatment of Bolsonaro push Brazil closer to China - YouTube Brazil forgot that Trump rules not only the U.S. but also the entire World. Trump says "I run the country and the world" in interview with The Atlantic - YouTube So failing to follow instructions from the world's Dear Leader on an internal criminal matter had to be punished, and U.S. consumers were just collateral damage in TrumpWorld.
Trump claims he is in negotiations to bring down beef prices which just hit an all time high due in significant part to his policies. Without providing any details, Trump represented that his "magic" came close to a deal that would reduce beef prices. Trump: The Price Of Beef Will Come Down ‘Pretty Soon’ (10/16/25) The U.S. did start tariff negotiations with Brazil last week. Trump could reduce beef prices in the U.S. by withdrawing his tariff taxes on beef imports.
A republican tariff tax of 25% applied to furniture imports starts on Tuesday and will rise to 30% on 1/1/26. Another republican tariff tax of 25% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities also starts on Tuesday and will be increased to 50% on 1/1/26. The republican 10% tariff tax on softwood lumber imports also starts on Tuesday. The republican 25% tariff tax on medium and heavy duty trucks starts on 11/1/25. Trump announces new tariffs on trucks, drugs and kitchen cabinets; Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Addresses the Threat to National Security from Imports of Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Parts, and Buses – The White House; What to know about new U.S. tariffs on cabinets, vanities and some wooden furniture | PBS News According to the Treasury Secretary, the republican tariff taxes paid by U.S. importers, not by foreign countries as claimed by Trump, do not increase consumer prices. Donald Trump tariffs' impact: 55 percent of costs on US consumers this year per Goldman Sachs; Sec. Bessent: Tariffs are not a tax on American people (video of interview). I anticipate that almost all or all of the republican tariff taxes will be paid by U.S. consumers, but it will take time to move from 55% to almost 100%.
Since the buck never stops at Trump's desk and never will, he takes no responsibility whatsoever for China boycotting purchases of U.S. soybean due to the punitive trade war that Trump started and rapidly accelerated. Trump accused China of "purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act." China Reacts to Latest Donald Trump Trade Threat Over Cooking Oil - Newsweek (10/15/25)
The Fed - Monetary Policy: Beige Book (10/15/25): "Overall consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks, although auto sales were boosted in some Districts by strong demand for electric vehicles ahead of the expiration of a federal tax credit at the end of September. . . Manufacturing activity varied by District, and most reports noted challenging conditions due to higher tariffs and waning overall demand. Activity in agriculture, energy, and transportation was generally down among reporting Districts. . . Prices rose further during the reporting period. Several District reports indicated that input costs increased at a faster pace due to higher import costs and the higher cost of services such as insurance, health care, and technology solutions. Tariff-induced input cost increases were reported across many Districts, but the extent of those higher costs passing through to final prices varied."
Tariffs are pushing prices higher and consumers are feeling the hit, Fed's Beige Book shows
Scott Bessent rips Chinese lead trade negotiator Li Chenggang Bessent, a failed hedge fund manager, called China's trade negotiator an "unhinged" trade warrior. Apparently Bessent believes that name calling will produce a positive result in the trade negotiations.
Bessent says U.S. will impose "price floors". Price floors are a means for the U.S. government to engage in price controls. Trump will set price floors across industries to combat China, Bessent says This does not sound like a republican idea but then Nixon tried it in 1971. Nixonomics in Retrospect: Devaluation and Wage-Price Controls, August 15, 1971 | Cato Institute
China blames US for global panic over rare earths controls
HPE stock sinks 10% on weak guidance for fiscal 2026
Nestle 3Q earnings; announces 16,000 job cuts
U.S. support for Argentina could hit $40 billion; China Bought Up to 35 Cargoes of Soybeans From Argentina - YouTube; China’s September Soybean Imports Reach Near-Record as U.S. Trade War Drags On
+++
Trump and Gaza:
Trump says 'war is over' in Gaza as he flies to Israel for release of hostages - BBC News Did Hamas agree to relinquish its weapons and withdraw from governance? There have been GAZA ceasefires in the past. The most recent ones were earlier this year and in November 2023. Hamas official says disarmament 'out of the question' - The Economic Times
Trump vows to disarm Hamas but won't say how, avoids details on what's next for Gaza - ABC News
Trump says Israeli forces could resume fighting in Gaza if Hamas won’t uphold ceasefire deal "as soon as I say the word"; Trump to The Atlantic: 'I run the country and the world' _USA Today
+++
Trump's Anti-Democracy, Pro-Authoritarian Party:
I’ve Seen Epstein Pics of Trump With Topless Girls: Michael Wolff | Inside Trump's Head - YouTube This is a claim that Michael Wolff has made in the past. If those photos exist, were seized by the FBI out of Epstein's safe, and were not destroyed while in the government's possession, then the republicans in Congress will do everything conceivable to prevent their public availability.
Mike Johnson has so far avoided swearing in the newly elected Arizona representative. Speaker Johnson refuses to swear in Adelita Grijalva despite special election certification - Axios Phoenix Why? She would be the last vote needed on the discharge petition that would force a House vote on the release of the Epstein files.
Only 4 House republicans have signed the discharge petition. The rest oppose it. Why? Trump has told them to oppose it. Why? This is what transparency actually means to republicans. Release the government's files on Amelia Earhart's disappearance in 1937 and hide the Epstein files in 2025. They know that by repeatedly claiming to be transparent, when doing the opposite, will be accepted by tens of millions as proof of transparency. In TrumpWorld, words create a reality that does not actually exist. Arizona attorney general threatens legal action against Mike Johnson for failing to seat Adelita Grijalva - Live Updates - POLITICO
Costumed protesters in Portland defy description of the city as a 'war zone' Taking photos or videos of what is actually happening will not stop Trump from creating the false reality with words that Portland is burning to the ground and a war zone, nor will actual evidence that those claims are false cause Trump supporters to question his demonstrably false representations. Tens of millions are now permanent residents of an Orwellian World created primarily by Trump with major assists from republican politicians, "conservative" podcasters, media organizations which are nothing more than Trump propaganda outlets, and countless other influencers in this alternate reality where facts will never penetrate. It is futile to even try.
WGN-TV producer violently detained during Chicago ICE enforcement action | The Independent When have you heard a republican criticize this treatment?
Trump falsely claims "Biden FBI" placed agents in Jan. 6 crowds - Newsweek Trump blames Biden and the FBI for the mob attack on the U.S. capital that he launched after riling up his Trumpsters.
America Needs a Mass Movement—Now - The Atlantic (subscription publication). This article was written by David Brooks, viewed as a conservative. The crucial mass movement is to stop America's descent into authoritarian rule. Brooks notes that the Trump administration has flouted one-third of the court rulings against it. "It operates as a national extortion racket, using federal power to control the inner workings of universities, law firms, and corporations. It has thoroughly politicized the Justice Department . . . It has turned ICE into a massive paramilitary organization with apparently unconstrained powers. It has treated the Constitution with disdain, assaulted democratic norms and diminished democratic freedoms, and put military vehicles and soldiers on the streets of the capital. It embraces the optics of fascism, and flaunts its autocratic aspirations." It is important to keep in mind for the remainder of your life that republicans support all of the above while refusing to recognize the nature of what they are in fact supporting.
‘I love Hitler’: Leaked messages expose Young Republicans’ racist chat - POLITICO No one should be surprised by the comments quoted in that article. J.D. Vance criticized those who were critical of those messages, as one would expect. JD Vance epitomizes the GOP’s move from morals to whataboutism; Vance’s Telling Defense of a Racist Group Chat - The Atlantic What did Vance say about Trump before being offered the Vice Presidency? (My Video: What Does J D Vance Really Think about Trump? - YouTube)
Parents of teen tossed to ground, detained by apparent federal agent demand answers - CBS Chicago The Assistant Secretary of Homeland Security, Tricia McLaughlin, made up a story that the video of this incident had nothing to do with ICE and was a video of the Chicago Police arresting a burglary suspect a year ago. As with other Trump propagandists, she has no shame. PolitiFact | Viral video shows ICE activity in Hoffman Estates, not a 2024 Chicago ‘burglary arrest’ Standing by demonstrably false statements is the norm. It is not surprising that Ms. McLaughlin was appointed by Kristi Noem. Senior ICE Barbie Official Posts Totally False Information About Violent Arrest of Teen Girl
'Throw the book at people': Judges and lawyers say Jeanine Pirro has 'no credibility left'
Trump is threatening to move the 2028 Olympic games and the 2026 World Cup from L.A. and Boston respectively. Trump threatens removal of World Cup games from Boston, Olympics from LA - The Guardian
The 6 Republican Supreme Court Justices, viewed by me as Monarchists rather than conservatives in the American legal tradition, appear ready to eliminate section 2 of the Voting Rights Act or to render it toothless. Conservative justices seem poised to weaken Voting Rights Act - POLITICO; Early Signs from Oral Argument in Callais Suggest that Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is in Real Trouble - Election Law Blog;Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act: Vote dilution and vote deprivation - SCOTUSblog By gutting the Voting Rights Act, republican states, particularly in the South, will be able to gerrymander more Democrat incumbent districts so that no Democrat has a possibility to win.
The pro-authoritarian party has already made that happen in Tennessee by carving Nashville into three parts and then joining each part with rural areas and small towns dominated by MAGA Trump supporters. The consequence is that Nashville is no longer allowed by Tennessee republicans to elect a Democrat, and none of the 3 MAGA Trump congressmen representing parts of Nashville actually lives in that major American city. (My Video published about 1 year ago: The Tennessee GOP has decided that Nashville will not be allowed to elect a Democrat to Congress - YouTube)
Trump turns up the pressure on Indiana Republicans to redistrict - POLITICO Trump wants republican state legislatures to gerrymander congressional districts to make it impossible for several Democrat incumbents to win reelection.
Trump Revives Nixon’s Dirtiest Trick: Weaponizing the IRS; Trump Plots to Use IRS to Go After His Enemies—and All Liberal Groups The 6 Republican Justices are responsible for unleashing Trump knowing that he was an authoritarian demagogue who would undermine the Constitution, laws and even America's democracy. That was also known or presumed to have been known by everyone who voted for Trump last November as noted by George Conway. America Did This to Itself - The Atlantic (published on 11/6/24)(Conway: "Every American knew, or should have known. The man elected president last night is a depraved and brazen pathological liar, a shameless con man, a sociopathic criminal, a man who has no moral or social conscience, empathy, or remorse. He has no respect for the Constitution and laws he will swear to uphold . . . . His government will be filled with corrupt grifters, spiteful maniacs, and morally bankrupt sycophants, who will follow in his example and carry his directives out, because that’s who they are and want to be.")
Rather than placing any limits on Trump's autocratic rule, the 6 Monarchists are increasing his power, creating for him Kingly powers that go beyond the "Imperial Presidency", and have given him a green light to commit crimes and other unlawful acts by their creation in 2024 of what amounts, as a practical matter, to an absolute immunity from criminal prosecutions.
Trump adds 3 more names he wants the Justice Department to prosecute
American Bar Association files suit to halt Trump intimidation of lawyers and law firms
Trump commuted the sentence of George Santos to time served in prison. George Santos: 'Have a great life!' Trump orders prison release of disgraced ex-congressman Why? Santos is a Trump loyalist and a MAGA republican which is a get out-of-jail free card in Trump's America. At least he did not receive a pardon for assaulting police officers on January 6th. Trump’s Pardons: Political Violence, Hate Groups, and the Rule of Law - Stanford Law School; Jan. 6 rioters pardoned by Trump had criminal records -NPR; Pardon of January 6 United States Capitol attack defendants - Wikipedia
‘Political opposition is not rebellion’: Appeals court rejects Trump’s rationale for Chicago troop deployment - POLITICO; Decision.pdf Trump's DOJ is appealing the order to the Supreme Court where he hopes that the 6 Republican Justices will conclude that a protest is equivalent to an insurrection justifying an invasion of Chicago ordered by Trump. The judges on the panel were appointed by George Bush, Obama, and Donald Trump. The two republican judges are in TrumpWorld radical left lunatics.
Conway Explains: They’re Calling Peaceful Protesters Terrorists Now - YouTube
Trump has threatened to give Ukraine long range Tomahawk missiles. This is an empty threat as Putin knows and will not happen. Trump does think that this kind of threat will cause Putin to be more amenable to a peace deal acceptable to Ukraine. Ukraine's Bid To Get Tomahawk Appears To Falter As Trump Tells Two Sides To 'Make A Deal'
++++
1. Small Ball Common Stock Purchases:
My buying continues to be concentrated in small ball purchases of equity REIT stocks.
I am averaging down on existing positions or starting a duplicate position at a price lower than my average cost per share in another taxable account.
Equity REIT stocks are in disfavor, notwithstanding their dividend yields becoming more attractive as interest rates fall.
A. Added to OLP in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $21.2; 5 at $20.55:
Quote: One Liberty Properties Inc. (OLP)
Cost: $208.75
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
As of 6/30/25, OLP owned "103 properties (including two properties owned by consolidated joint ventures and two properties owned by unconsolidated joint ventures) located in 32 states. Based on square footage, our occupancy rate at June 30, 2025 is approximately 98.8%." 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 25
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Started Duplicate Position in OLP in Vanguard Account - Bought 10 at $22.8; 5 at $22.1; 5 at $21.65 (10/4/25 Post)
OLP 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report
Website: One Liberty Properties, Inc.
New average cost per share this account: $22.2 (40+ shares)
I will take the position in this account up to 100 shares, excluding shares purchased with dividends, provided each subsequent purchase is at the lowest price in the chain.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.45 per share ($1.8 annually)
OLP Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I am reinvesting the dividend until the price exceeds $25. A price in excess of $25 will also probably result in selling my highest cost shares.
Yield at New AC: 8.11%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item # 3.D. Started Duplicate Position in OLP-Bought 10 at $23.21; 5 at $22.9 (9/13/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.B. Pared OLP in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $26.84 (9/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.93); Item # 2.A. Pared OLP in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $25.12+ (8/15/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.38)
Lowest Prices Paid: Item # 1.A. Added to OLP - Bought 5 at $18.8; 5 at $17.6 - Schwab Account (10/7/23 Post)
B. Added 5 GTY in Schwab Account at $25.97; 5 at $25.55:
Quote: Getty Realty Corp. (GTY) - Classified as a Net Lease REITs
Management: Internal
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25
New average cost per share this account: $27.78 (45+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.47 per share ($1.88 annually)
I am reinvesting the dividend in this account as shown in the previous snapshot.
Yield at New AC: 6.77%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/25/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item # 3.A. Added to GTY - Bought 5 at $26.8B - Fidelity Account (7/29/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and Earnings Presentation.pdf As discussed in that post, environmental litigation is a material risk. SEC Filed Annual Report at pages 26-29. The last earnings report included an unusually high $5.431M in an accrual expense for environmental litigation. The environmental expense was $585,000 in 2024 and $1.261M in 2023. SEC Filing at page 9
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated GTY - Sold 5 at $35.65 and 20 at $35.69 (1/3/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $211.35)
C. Added to KRG in Fidelity Account - Bought 4 at $21.46:
Quote: Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)
Cost: $85.84
"Kite Realty Group Trust is a publicly held REIT that, through its majority-owned subsidiary, Kite Realty Group, L.P., owns interests in various operating subsidiaries and joint ventures engaged in the ownership, operation, acquisition, development, and redevelopment of high-quality, open-air, grocery-anchored shopping centers and vibrant mixed-use assets that are primarily located in high-growth Sun Belt markets and select strategic gateway markets in the United States. . . . As of June 30, 2025, we own interests in 179 operating retail/mixed-used properties, including 171 wholly owned shopping centers and eight shopping centers owned through four unconsolidated joint ventures, totaling approximately 29.4 million square feet, excluding two operating retail properties classified as held for sale as of June 30, 2025, and two standalone office properties with 0.4 million square feet. Of the 179 operating retail/mixed-use properties, 11 contain an office component. We also own interests in one development project under construction as of June 30, 2025 and an additional two properties with future redevelopment opportunities." KRG 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 31
KRG is a component of the S&P 400 Midcap Index.
New Average cost per share this account: $22.19 (25 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually)
KRG Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 10/9/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item # 1.L. Added to KRG in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.95 (8/5/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Recent results have been negatively impacted by tenant bankruptcies as discussed in this Fitch report. Fitch Rates Kite Realty's Senior Unsecured Notes 'BBB'
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated KRG - Sold 25 at $25.51 (10/16/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $112.8)
Owned Kite Realty LP SU Bonds:
Stacked
4 Kite Realty LP 4% Coupon Maturing on 10/1/26
2 Kite Realty LP 4.95% Coupon Maturing on 12/15/31, recently purchased and discussed at Item # 5.E. Bought 2 Kite Realty LP 4.95% SU Maturing on 12/15/31 at a Total Cost of 98.6 (6/5/25 Post)(YTM then at 5.205%); Bond Prospectus
D. Added to WEN - Bought 5 at $8.8:
Quote: Wendy's Co. (WEN)Cost: $44
WEN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Added to WEN - Bought 5 at $9.3; 5 at $9.1 (9/27/25 Post)
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Chart: Major Bear Market trend of unknowable duration.
New Cost per share this account: $9.49 (50 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually)
Yield at New AC: 5.9%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/2/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/29/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 3.D. Started WEN - Bought 10 at $10 (8/19/25 Post), SEC Filed Earnings Press Release. I discussed the reasons for my caution in that post.
Purchase Restriction: With the possible negative impact on profit margins and revenues due to input cost inflation, I will limit my subsequent purchases to 5 shares with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
E. Adde to PEO - Bought 5 at $21.15 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. Overview - Stock CEF
Cost: $105.75
This CEF was formed in 1929 just prior to the stock market crash. The fund shares office space and personnel with the Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. (ADX) that was founded at about the same time.
I am willing to add to this CEF since my exposure to natural resource stocks is close to nil and the fund pays a good dividend.
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the Q/E 6/30/25
Sponsor's website: Adams Funds
New average cost per share:
Dividend: Variable
"The Board . . . adopted a Managed Distribution Policy (“MDP”) to enhance long-term shareholder value by paying level quarterly distributions at a committed rate of 8% of average net asset value (“NAV”) per year. Distributions in accordance with the MDP began in the third quarter of 2024."
PEO Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
For 2025, PEO paid quarterly dividends so far of $.53; $.52 and $.51 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 7/28/25
Data Date of 10/13/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $23.71
Closing Market Price: $21.13
Discount: -10.88%
Average 3 Year Discount: 13.81%
Source: PEO-CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 2.B. Eliminated PEO-Sold 15 at $23.94 (4/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $50.72); Item # 1. Eliminated PEO - Sold 182+ at $22 (1/16/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $853.25); Stocks,Item # 1. Sold 104+ PEO at $27.06 (8/10/2013 Post)(profit snapshot = $205.95); Item # 3. Sold 100 PEO at $26.19 (11/15/2010 Post)(profit snapshot = $144.29)
PEO Realized Gains to Date: $1,278.98 Some minor sales were not discussed.
WTI Crude Oil Prices - 10 Year Daily Chart | MacroTrends
Natural Gas Prices - Historical Chart | MacroTrends
The E&P stock sector has been pressured down recently due to declines in crude oil prices.
F. Added to SBSI - Bought 5 at $27.3; 5 at $26.65 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Southside Bancshares Inc. (SBSI)
Cost: $269.75
"Southside Bancshares, Inc. is a bank holding company with approximately $8.34 billion in assets as of June 30, 2025, that owns 100% of Southside Bank. Southside Bank currently has 53 branches in Texas."
SBSI along with the entire regional bank sector took a price hit last Thursday after Zion Bancorp announced a $50M charge off for bad loans and Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about bad bank loans. Why Jamie Dimon is warning of ‘cockroaches’ in the US economy | CNN Business Dimon was referring to the recent bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings, a subprime auto lender and First Brands, an auto parts supplier. I doubt that SBSI has any exposure to those companies but I do not know one way or the other.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
SBSI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Elimination: Item # 3.F. Eliminated SBSI - Sold 5 at $37.51 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $55.21)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually), last raised from $.35 in the 2024 first quarter. The penny rate was at $.23 in the 2015 first quarter.
SBSI Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $27.68: 5.2%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/21/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report here: Item # 1.C. Added to SBSI - Bought 5 at $28.65; 5 at $28.2 (8/12/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
SBSI Realized Gains to Date: $646.14
Gains - Over $90: Item # 2.F. Eliminated SBSI-Sold 25 at $30.03 (3/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.15); Item # 2 Sold 100 SBSI at $21.53 (6/28/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $97.05); Item # 2 Sold 100 SBSI at $21.53 (6/28/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $97.05); Item # 3 Sold 107+ SBSI at $20.5 (7/18/11 Post)(profit snapshots = $208.69)
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
E. Added to KMB - Bought 1 at $120:
Quote: Kimberly-Clark Corp.
KMB sells its products in 175 countries and territories. The brands include "Huggies, Kleenex, Scott, Kotex, Cottonelle, Poise, Depend, Andrex, Pull-Ups, Goodnites, Intimus, Plenitud, Sweety, Softex, Viva and WypAll, hold No. 1 or No. 2 share positions in approximately 70 countries"
KMB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated Remaining KMB in Fidelity Account - Sold 5+ at $137.87 (1/3/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.8)
New Average cost per share: $122.67 (4 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.26 per share ($5.04 annually), last raised from $1.22 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment. The quarterly dividend was at $.88 per share in 2015 and $.4313 in 2005
KMB Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Consecutive Years of dividend growth: 52 but the rate of growth has slowed significantly over the past 10 years compared to the prior ten year period.
Last Ex Dividend: 10/9/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): SEC Filed Press Release
Brief Summary of Problems IMO: I would generally describe the problems as problematic input cost inflation and competition from store brands and lower priced foreign manufactured products.
For consumer product companies, the problematic input cost inflation in the 2021-2023 period reduced demand, caused brand substitution and decreased profit margins. While input cost increases moderated in 2024, the republican tariff taxes are a significant new source of input cost inflation.
Quote: LKQ Corp. (LKQ)
Cost: $57.5
LKQ is a provider of "alternative and specialty parts to repair and accessorize automobiles and other vehicles". The company "offers its customers a broad range of OEM recycled after aftermarket parts, replacement systems, components, equipment and services to repair and accessorize automobiles, trucks, and recreational and performance vehicles." The company has operations in North America, Europe and Taiwan. Operations are more fully described in the 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report at pages 3-10.
Revenue will be highly dependent on collision repair demand.
The company will carry a lot of inventory. As of 6/20/25, the value assigned to inventory was at $3.394B
I have barely started a small ball position before seeing a report that I did not like that resulted in 2 quick eliminations. I have now restarted a position at the lowest price ever paid for this stock.
Reuters Key Metrics -Valuation Page
Investment Category: Contrarian Value
Last Elimination Discussion: Item # 4.F. Eliminated LKQ - Sold 5 at $42.64 (8/29/24 Post)(profit snapshot +$6.22)
New Average cost per share: $29.34 (7 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share ($1.2 annually)
LKQ Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $29.34: 4.1%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/14/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report here: Item 1.G. Restarted LKQ - Bought 5 at $29.58 (8/12/25 Post) As noted there, investors had a justified IMO negative reaction to this report. LKQ has problems that are generally reflected in the stock price. The unknowable issues are weather those problems will become worse or better. I am currently anticipating worse before better, but how much worse and how long will it take for earnings to persistently turn up are not subject to confident predictions.
Purchase Restriction: 2 to 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
G. Added to KLC - Bought 5 at $6.3; 10 at $5.74:
Quote: KinderCare Learning Cos. (KLC)
Cost: $88.84
KLC "offers early childhood education and care programs to children ranging from six weeks through 12 years of age". As of 6/28/25, the company provided "early childhood education and care services through
A private equity firm, Partners Group Holding AG, took KLC public in an October 2024 IPO. The public offering price was $24 per share. Prospectus The company sold 24M shares plus an additional 3.6M in the greenshoe allotment. The net proceeds was reported at $616.1M after $36.4M in underwriting discounts/commissions and offering expenses of about $9.4M. Of the net amount, $608M was used to pay off a first lien credit facility. (SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report at page 41)
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
KinderCare Learning Companies - Investor Relations
KLC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 10/16/25, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2025 was at $.77; at $.86 in 2026 and at $1.01 in 2027. If those estimates prove spot on, then the stock is undervalued IMO based on the forward P.E.G and P/E ratios. When I last summarized those estimates, using data as of 9/6/25, the 2025 was at $.77 but the 2026 and 2027 estimates were slightly higher at $.9 and $1.05 respectively.
New Average cost per share: $6.6 (45 shares)
Dividend: None and none expected
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/28/25): I discussed this report here: Item # 4.A. Started KLC - Bought 30 at $6.94 (9/8/25); SEC Filed Press Release
The only news that I could find since my last discussion was the filing of a class action suit. KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. Class Action KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. Class Action Lawsuit - The Rosen Law I have no information whether the allegations have a factual basis.
H. Added to MDV - Bought 5 at $14.2:
Quote: Modiv Industrial Inc. Cl C (MDV) - Industrial Manufacturing REIT
Cost: $71
MDV is a mini-cap REIT. As of 6/30.25, "the Company’s portfolio of approximately
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Started MDV - Bought 10 at $14.65; 5 at $14.45 (8/5/25 Post)
New average cost per share: $14.49 (20 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.0975 per share ($1.17 annually)
MDV Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I am expecting that all of the 2025 dividends will be classified as ROC based on the GAAP E.P.S. being ($.33) for the first six months.
Yield at New AC: 8.07%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/30/25 (owned 15 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/20/25):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Revenues: $11.833M, up from $11.41M
GAAP E.P.S. = ($.32)
FFO per share: $.36
AFFO per share: $.38
Reconciliation GAAP to AFFO:
Preferred Stock 7.375% Coupon: I own a few shares. Item # 7.A. Bought 5 MDVPRA at $24.33 (8/12/25 Post) Prospectus
I. Started BRT in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $14.68:
Quote: BRT Apartments Corp. (BRT) - Internally Managed Apartment REIT
Cost: $146.8
At June 30, 2025, BRT " (i) wholly-own 21 multi-family properties with an aggregate of 5,420 units and a carrying value of $605.3 million; (ii) have ownership interests, through unconsolidated entities, in eight multi-family properties with 2,527 units and a carrying value of $30.0 million; (iii) have preferred equity interests in two multi-family properties with a carrying value of $17.7 million and (iii) own other assets, through consolidated and unconsolidated subsidiaries, with a carrying value of $1.8 million. The 29 multi-family properties are located in 11 states; most of these properties are located in the Southeast United States and Texas." 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 19
On 7/10/25, a joint venture in which BRT has an 80% interest "acquired 1322 North, a 214-unit multi-family property located in Auburn, AL. The Company acquired the property for $36.5 million, including a $24.4 million mortgage. The mortgage matures in 2032, bears a 5.38% fixed interest rate, and is interest only through maturity. We contributed $10.7 million to the joint venture for our equity interest. In connection with this transaction, we borrowed $7 million from our credit facility."
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to BRT in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $15.25 (5/2/25 Post); Item # 1.G. Restarted BRT-Bought 10 at $15.8; 5 at $15.5 - Schwab Account (4/25/25 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated BRT - Sold 25 at $18.68 (5/17/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $64.17)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Properties | BRT Apartments | REIT
BRT SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
BRT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $14.68: 6.81%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/24/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
Occupancy: 94.1%
Revenues: $24.197M, up from $23.862M
GAAP E.P.S. ($.14)
FFO per share: $.29, unchanged
AFFO per share: $.36, up from $.35
Reconciliation:
When calculating AFFO, there is no adjustment to FFO for routine maintenance expenditures, sometimes referred to as "recurring capital expenditures". I view that adjustment as required using the NAREIT definition of AFFO.
BRT does provide information on estimated recurring capital expenditures:
The number was $1,529,000 for the quarter or about 8 cents per share. I would deduct the 8 cents from $.36 which exceeds the quarterly dividend per share by $.03.
"Repurchased 63,356 shares during the second quarter 2025 at a weighted average price of $15.84, and for the first six months of 2025, the Company repurchased 142,080 shares at a weighted average price of $16.79."
J. Added to UMH in Vanguard Account - Bought 10 at $14:
Quote: UMH Properties Inc. (UMH)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to UMH in Vanguard Account - Bought 10 at $14.52; 10 at $14.26+ (10/11/25 Post)
Investment category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: UMH Properties | Manufactured Home Sales & Home Communities
5 Year Chart: Bear Market Pattern with a high hit at $27+ in December 2021.
Average cost per share this account: $14.26
Dividend: Quarterly at $.225 per share ($.90 annually)
UMH Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $14.26: 6.31%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/15/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 3.D. Added to UMH - Bought 5 at $15.7 (8/26/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
K. Added to VZ - Bought 1 at $41.38; 1 at $41.18:
Quote: Verizon Communications Inc.
Cost: $82.56
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Eliminated Duplicate VZ Position in Fidelity Account - Sold 10 at $45.2 (4/4/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $118.31); Item # 1.C. Sold 17 VZ in Schwab and Fidelity Accounts (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshots = $94.14); Item # 1.N. Sold 2 VZ at $44.24; 5+ at $44.01 - Fidelity Account (12/5/2024 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.68) The trades in my Schwab account involved selling my highest cost shares that reduced my AC per share to $33.18.
VZ Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New Average cost per share: $34.56 (12+ shares)
The AC per share was increased from $33.18.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.69 per share ($2.76 annually), last raised from $.6775 effective for the 2025 4th quarter payment.
VZ Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $34.56: 7.99%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/10/25 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Revenues: $34.504B, up from $32.796B
GAAP E.P.S. = $1.18, up from $1.09
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.22, up from $1.15
Reconciliation:
Free cash flow: $8.804B, up from $8.498B
2025 Outlook:
The preceding snapshot references the pending acquisition of Frontier. Verizon to acquire Frontier (9/5/24); U.S. approves Verizon deal to acquire Frontier after DEI changes (5/16/25). Currently, this acquisition is expected to be concluded in early 2026.
Bond Substitute Investment Category: I classify VZ as a bond substitute which defines the objective rather than the safety of the dividends. The general goal is harvest the dividends and exit the position with an annualized 2% or higher gain on the shares.
I try to keep VZ on a short leash since I have primarily a negative opinion about the stock based on the following considerations: (1) very high debt levels in a competitive industry that frequently erupts into price wars and lower costs to consumers; (2) high ongoing capital expenditures and labor costs; and (3) the slowing of VZ dividend growth.
My interest has increased, however, by a tiny slither due to a decline in interest rates.
I eliminated my positions in AT&T and retreated into buying its SU debt.
2026 SU Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
YTM at Total Cost = 4.585%, Item #1.I.
2027 SU Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
YTM at Total Cost = 4.785%, Item # 2.C.
YTM is calculated using the total cost number on the date of purchase.
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD) - Externally Managed
Cost: $113.25
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD)
Properties- Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD)
New Average cost per share this account: $12.46 (80 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.10 per share
GOOD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 9.63%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/22/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report here: Item # 3.A. Added to GOOD in Schwab Account - Bought 20 at $13.1 (8/26/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
K. Added to MAA - Bought 1 at $131.9 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA) - Large Apartment REIT
This share was bought on the ex dividend day.
As of June 30, 2025, MAA had ownership interest in 104,347 apartment units, including communities currently in development, across 16 states and the District of Columbia."
Same Store average physical occupancy: 95.4% Supplemental Data at page S-4
Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Added to MAA - Bought 1 at $135 (10/11/25). I am buying in 1 share lots with each purchase required to be $2 lower than the previous one.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New average cost per share: $135.73 (4 shares)
Reduced from $137
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.515 per share ($6.06 annually), last raised from $1.47 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment.
MAA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 10/15/25 (owned 3 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed the last earnings report here: Item # 1.E. Restarted MAA - Bought 1 at $139 and 1 at $137 (10/4/25 Post); SEC Filing
Last Elimination: Item # 1.E. Eliminated MAA - Sold 5 at $169.88 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $222.26)
2. Small Ball Stock/Stock Fund Sells:
A. Pared PRPFX Again - Sold 10 at $74.05:
Quote: Permanent Portfolio -Investor Class Overview | MarketWatch
Proceeds: $740.5
Sponsor's website: The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds
PRPFX is classified as a moderate allocation.
The allocation target for gold and silver bullion is 25%, 30% for common stocks, 10% for Swiss Franc assets and 35% for Dollar Assets: Sponsor's website: The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds
The "Dollar Assets" consist of investment grade corporate bonds and treasuries weighted at 31.52% as of 4/30/25, see Holdings at page 5. Swiss government bonds were weighted at 7.66%. Gold and silver bullion at 28.15. Real estate and natural resource stocks were weighted at 15.4%. "Aggressive Growth" stocks were weighted at 18.25%, bringing the common stock allocation up to 33.65%. I would not characterize almost all of the stocks included in the "Aggressive Growth" category as fitting that description.
SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/31/25
PRPFX-Morningstar (5 stars, classified as a moderate allocation fund). The rating is based on performance within that classification.
PRPFX Portfoli0 -Morningstar Lists top 10 equity holdings. Click the "Others" tab to see the gold and silver bullion data. Click the "Bond" tab to see the top 13 bond holdings.
Last Discussed: Item # 5.E. Sold 2 PRPFX at $72.67 (9/27/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $63.41)
Profit Snapshot: $330.87
Other 2025 Sales:Average Cost per share: $40.96 (190+ shares)
I am using average cost. Since I have not bought any shares for a long time, the average cost per share remains unchanged whenever I sell more shares.
Dividend: A significant part of my total return has originated from the annual dividends.
PRPFX Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 12/4/25
Dividends Paid 2020-2024: $6.06 per share
I have been taking the dividends in cash.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Pared PRPFX - Sold 5 at $68.4 (8/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $137.19); Item # 1.B. Sold 10 PRPFX at $68.09 (7/3/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $271.28); Item # 3.E. Pared PRPFX - Sold 10 at $67.16 (6/12/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $261.97); Item # 2.A. Sold 125+ PRPFX at $40.22 (8/7/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $308.84); Item # 1. Sold 10 of 237+ PRPFX at $66.01 (5/16/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $250.48)(In that post, I included snapshots of prior realized gains including $590.26 in 2015 which is also included in the total below)
PRPFX Realized Gains to Date: $2,214.3
B. Eliminated TTI - Sold 20 at $5.67:
Quote: Tetra Technologies Inc. (TTI)
Proceeds: $113.47
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
TTI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $34.47
Last Discussed: Item # 3.L. Restarted TTI - Bought 20 at $3.95 (8/19/25 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
3. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auctions:
A. Bought 30 T Bills at the 10/14/25 Auction:
91 Day Bill
Matures on 1/15/26
Interest: $294.58
Investment Rate: 3.937%
B. Bought 20 T Bills at the 10/14/25 Auction:
182 Day Bill
Mature on 4/16/25
Interest: $372.59
Investment Rate: 3.807%
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.















%201:15:26.png)



I will be buying today $20K in the 3 month T Bill and $20K in 6 month T Bill. The primary purpose is to shift income tax recognition into 2026. I will also receive more income from those purchases than from the sweep accounts used as funding sources.
ReplyDeleteI am currently adding at least $1,000 per week in dividend paying stocks in anticipation of lower T Bill income next year.
I am buying beaten up dividend stocks primarily in the equity REIT sector.
I am also nibbling on a few regional bank stocks that have taken price hits where the bank has relatively low charge offs and nonperforming loans to total loans. An example is SBSI discussed in Item 1.F. of this post (Q/E 6/30/25: Charge off ratio at .08% NPL Ratio at .11%)
I also published a new video last weekend:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6L03sVtEPU&t=329s
I am avoiding BDCs for the reasons that I have outlined in recent posts.
Hologic Inc. (HOLX):
ReplyDelete$74.69 +$ 2.82 +3.91%
Last Updated: Oct 21, 2025 at 10:05 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/holx
This stock had been rising in price prior to today based on reports that Blackstone and TPG were in negotiations to take the company private.
It was announced earlier today that those 2 companies have entered into an agreement to acquire HOLX at $76 per share in cash and up to an additional $3 per share upon achieving certain regulatory milestones.
https://investors.hologic.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2025/Hologic-to-be-Acquired-by-Blackstone-and-TPG-for-up-to-79-per-Share/default.aspx
I had started a Lottery Ticket position back in May 2025 and have now sold my 2 shares:
Item # 2.E. Restarted HOLX - Bought 1 at $57.54; 1 at $53.17:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/05/bbdc-doc-eprprc-flo-gis-holx-mrcc-trc-u.html
As with other stock Lottos, I will generally add to positions at lower prices.
The price jumped on 5/27 after reports that Blackstone and TPG had renewed their acquisition interest closing at $62.17, up from the prior close at $54.28.
++
The CPI report for September was delayed due to the shutdown. That report is now scheduled for release on 10/24/25. Even if inflation moves notably higher, the FED will still cut the FF rate by .25%.
"Overall, economists foresee that inflation rose by 0.4% month over month in September, and 3.1% from its year-ago levels. Core inflation, will likely have risen 0.3% by month and 3.1% annually in September, according to data from FactSet."
https://www.morningstar.com/economy/cpi-report-expected-show-continued-inflation
The upcoming PCZ and CPI inflation reports have the potential of upsetting the complacency of stock investors. Further weakening in the jobs market could further add to the anxiety and at least cause some investors at the margins to bail out of the blue sky, nothing is wrong, everything is going great, never better economic scenario.
I do believe economists are currently under estimating the inflationary impact of tariffs. One reason is that the increased prices charged by U.S. importers resulting from the republican tariff taxes will provide an incentive for competing domestic producers to raise prices given the higher price umbrella and potential for more profits for those companies who are not reliant on imported products or parts. Given the percentage increases in prices caused by the tariffs (e.g. 50% on steel and aluminum), domestic producers could significantly increase their consumer prices and still remain lower than the prices charged for imported products and parts.
The stock market rallied earlier this week after Trump's economic advisor, Kevin Hassert, represented that the shutdown would likely end this week:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/20/trump-hassett-government-shutdown.html
Maybe that will happen but I have seen enough to place no reliance on his statements when investing my money.
I work under the assumption that Trump, Bessent and Hassert will constantly make representations about what may happen soon just to manipulate people into buying stocks or to stop a decline in the market.
I will just do what I have been doing and effectively ignore claims from those individuals when investing my money.
I did increase my T Bills purchases to $50K this week by buying $10K in the 119 day bill auction today. The other $40K was evenly divided between the 3 and 6 month bills auctioned last Monday.
I am using a shotgun scatter approach to buying dividend paying stocks. The amounts are immaterial to me, but the goal is to add at least $1,000 per week, recognizing that my significant T Bill allocation will be producing less income in 2026 and probably into 2027 compared to this year. By holding the bills purchased this week to maturity, I shift the interest income tax recognition into 2026 when I know my interest income will be lower.
I have published a new blog post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/10/aple-bhb-cl-clx-fnlc-fold-gis-hban-hnna.html