FITB, HTA, IVZ, JCAP, PROSY, SJR

Economy: 

The BLS reported that the economy added 225K jobs last month. Average hourly earnings rose 7 cents to $28.44 an hour. Y-O-Y wage growth was reported at 3.1%. Employment gains for 2019 were revised down to 2.096M from 2.108 M. Employment Situation Summary The U-6 number increased to 6.9% from 6.7%. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

Job Growth Data Historical:

Sourced from Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

January jobs report may have gotten an extra boost from the weather

U.S. productivity increases in 2019 at fastest pace in nine years—but gains might not last - MarketWatch (+1.7% in 2019, up from +1.3 in 2018). Both numbers are below the historical average since WWII. 

Trade war: China cuts retaliatory tariffs on hundreds of US goods

70% chance of recession in next six months, study from MIT and State Street finds I view the odds at less than 20% with the main wild card being the coronavirus epidemic.  

The republicans claimed in unison that their corporate tax cuts, which became effective on 1/1/18, would spur business investment: 

Real Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment-St. Louis Fed The facts will not stop Donald from claiming that business investment has increased in response to the GOP's tax legislation.

As investment continues to decline, the Trump tax cuts remain nothing but a handout to the rich | Economic Policy Institute

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act isn’t working and there’s no reason to think that will change | Economic Policy Institute

How Trump's three years of job gains compares to Obama's; Trump’s Economic Growth Is Slower Than Obama’s Last 3 Years: Forbes

The 2019 calendar year federal budget deficit topped $1 trillion, up from less than $600B in Obama's last year. 

GDP growth in 2015-2016 would have been significantly higher with $1 trillion per year budget deficits. 

U.S. economic growth is significantly dependent on the federal government spending excessive amounts of borrowed money.  

Pence defends deficit expansion under Trump as necessary for growth When republicans regained control over the House in 2010, they forced spending cuts based on their purported concerns about the growing budget deficit. Their concerns about budget deficits only arise when there is a democrat President. The fiscal fights of the Obama administration

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Markets and Market Commentary: 

Middle East starts to feel pain from coronavirus crisis

Q4 2019 Affordability Report: This Spring Home Buying Season May Be the Last Affordable One in a While - Realtor.com Economic Research

Coronavirus live updates: Fed flags threat, WHO sees new cases slowing

Supply chain disruptions are becoming more problematic: Coronavirus: Effect on manufacturing could ripple through holidays

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Trump: 

Mitt Romney did not drink the republican Kool-Aid. Why Mitt Romney Voted to Convict Trump - The Atlantic  

Don the Shameless will slam anyone who has principles. Trump slams Romney; Impeachment Witness Alexander Vindman Fired From the White House 

Disgusting Don characterized the impeachment effort as "evil" and "corrupt", a "hoax" conjured up by "dirty cops" and "liars".  

I am content for the Lord to sort out the identity of the real evil person.   

White House Statement: “Yesterday, Mitt Romney threw aside principles to seek adulation and validation from the far-left and liberal echelons of the establishment media."

Full text: Mitt Romney's remarks on impeachment vote (video & transcript) - POLITICO

Trump dismissed Collins comment that he would learn from impeachment: report | TheHill If Senator Collins actually believes Donald learned contrition and will restrain himself in the future as a result of being impeached by the House and acquitted by the Senate, then she is either delusional or suffering from dementia.

Trump celebrates end of impeachment with angry, raw and vindictive 62-minute White House rant - The Washington Post

The only lesson that the republicans have taught the Duck is that he has a carte blanche to do whatever he wants including routine abuses of presidential power, constitutional violations and other unlawful actions. 

Donald has certainly taught the republican House and Senate members that he controls their political destiny. 

In the unlawful action category, an example would be Demagogue Don's unilateral decision to withhold Ukraine's military aid. READ: GAO report finding Trump administration broke the law on Ukraine aid | TheHill Even when it is crystal clear that Donald broke some law, republicans will deny that anything untoward happened which was the case with this GAO finding. 

Trump turns prayer breakfast into sustained attack on impeachment process and political foes - MarketWatch I wonder whether Donald has removed the cellophane wrapper covering his bible yet. 

How Donald Trump has already broken all 10 Commandments See also, Leviticus 19:11 You must not steal. You must not lie or deceive one another.  Donald, who is easily the most morally flawed President in U.S. history, has overwhelming support among evangelicals who are either in denial about his extreme immorality and make believe Christianity or are willing to overlook his true nature in Machiavellian fashion. 

There Is No Christian Case for Trump - The Atlantic; 

Donald Trump’s history of corruption: a comprehensive review - Vox; 

President Trump made 16,241 false or misleading claims in his first three years - The Washington Post; 

‘Horseface,’ ‘Lowlife,’ ‘Fat, Ugly’: How the President Demeans Women - The New York Times; 

These women have accused Trump of sexual harassment; 

Trump Ordered to Pay $2 Million to Charities for Misuse of Foundation-The New York Times; 

Trump University: USA Today; 

Tax Fraud By The Numbers: The Trump Timeline [UPDATED 2020]; Which Trump Will Take the Fall for Years of Tax Fraud? | Vanity Fair; Decade in the Red: Trump Tax Figures Show Over $1 Billion in Business Losses - The New York Times (even though he had lost over $1B trying to operate businesses, he published a book during that period of gigantic failures, "Trump: The Art of the Deal (1987)", that claimed he was a business genius)

Trump Repeats Falsehoods in Celebrating Acquittal - FactCheck.org; 

Donald routinely engages in witness intimidation. This is accomplished through various means including attacking witnesses publicly with false or misleading statements and firing anyone who provides truthful information. All methods used by the Teflon Don to intimidate are designed to send a message to future witnesses: Do not tell the truth. 

Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is one of many willing republican participants in Donald's witness intimidation schemes: Lindsey Graham Wants To Call Whistleblower After Trial To Ask 'How All This Crap Started' It does not matter to Graham and other republicans that the whistleblower's complaint was confirmed by multiple witnesses and documents including the summary of Donald's call with Zelensky. It is still important to punish the whistleblower for coming forward in order to silence future ones. Trump’s quest for revenge could mean the end of whistleblowing - The Washington Post  

Trump Fires Gordon Sondland Hours After Dismissing Impeachment Witness Alexander Vindman He was just not sufficient for Donald to fire Colonel Vindman. He had to fire his brother as well and then have them publicly escorted out of the White House as if they had committed some crime. 

Jimmy Kimmel skewers Donald Trump Jr.'s resume - CNN Video

Treasury Department Hands Over Hunter Biden Info After Withholding Trump's Tax Records 

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New emails show how President Trump roiled NOAA during Hurricane Dorian; NOAA emails show outrage and panic over Trump's false claims on Hurricane Dorian

Trump Exaggerates China Trade Impact on Farmers - FactCheck.org

Romney not welcome at CPAC after impeachment witness vote  CPAC  is not an organization of conservatives. CPAC's Chairman Matt Schlapp is not a conservative. Calling himself a conservative sounds more marketable than the correct labeling. 

Giuliani Sought Help for Client in Meeting With Ukrainian Official - The New York Times

Trump’s border wall, vulnerable to flash floods, needs large storm gates left open for months - The Washington Post

Part of U.S. border wall falls over into Mexico-YouTube

Smugglers are sawing through new sections of Trump’s border wall - The Washington Post The tools are available at hardware stores.

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Iowa caucus voter ends Pete Buttigieg support because he is gay The voter claimed that the Bible opposed homosexuality. What The Bible Says - Does The Bible Not Oppose Homosexuality? PBS; Debating Bible Verses on Homosexuality - The New York Times (an interesting debate on the relevant passages)

Buttigieg is married to another man. The U.S. IMO is nowhere close to electing a gay person as President, irrespective of his or her qualifications. 

The only way to know for certain is for the Democrats to run Buttigieg as their nominee.   

Black voters also lack enthusiasm for him. What’s Really Behind Pete Buttigieg’s Lack Of Support Among Black Voters? | FiveThirtyEight

Many democrats and independents will be concerned about his qualifications. 

Trump was unqualified to be President and that did not prevent his election. At least Buttigieg is willing to learn what he does not know. Donald is not willing to learn anything since he operates under the delusion that he already knows everything when he knows almost nothing other than his own reality creations.  

It is a major slam against Biden that he was thrashed in Iowa by this political neophyte.

Biden's time has come and gone. He is just too old, prone to gaffes, lacking in appeal to younger voters who are essential to a Democrat victory, and has too much baggage including his vote for the Iraq War resolution. He inspires almost no one. 

His campaign on the line, Joe Biden goes missing in New Hampshire Yet the republicans continue their campaign to smear Biden. Giuliani: Trump Should Investigate Biden After Expected Senate Acquittal : NPR; Rudy Giuliani & Co. Plot New Biden Probes and Overseas Trip 

Buttigieg and Biden are taking oxygen away from Senator Amy Klobuchar who would have a decent chance of beating Donald with Senator Cory Booker as her VP.

Personally, I do not care whether a person is gay, bisexual or heterosexual. If 2 members of the same sex want to marry, that is fine with me. They can get divorced too and pay alimony. 

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All trades are commission free unless otherwise noted. 

I am going to be repeating this statement in every blog: 

The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure. 

Risk is also controlled through small odd lot trades made economically feasible now with zero brokerage commissions.

I am not concerned about the dollar value of the profit provided I am in achieving the objectives set out above. 

I am barely able to keep myself from selling all stocks currently owned. 

S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 2/7/20

Trailing 12 month GAAP: 26.1
Estimated Future 12 month Non-GAAP = 19.11
Dividend Yield = 1.81%

P/E & Yields

Shiller PE Ratio = 31.82

1. Eliminated PROSY-Sold 100 at $15.03: 

Profit Snapshot: +$200.46 

Item # 1 Bought 100 PROSY at $13.03 (12/14/19 Post) 

Quote: Prosus N.V. ADR Overview

The value of PROSY is primarily linked to Tencent's stock price. Tencent Holdings Ltd. ADR Overview 

Rationale: (1) profit taking (2) Coronavirus in China and (3) no dividend support for an investor who wants it. 

Last Earnings Report: Prosus N.V. Today Announced Its First Set of Results for the Six Months Ended 30 September 2019 | Business Wire

2. Small Ball Trades: 

A. Added 5 FITB at $28.6: 

Quote: Fifth Third Bancorp

FITB | Fifth Third Bancorp Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
FITB SEC Filings

Closing Price 2/7/20: FITB $29.49 -$0.17 -0.57% 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Bought 10 FITB at $29.32 (1/25/20 Post) I discussed the 2019 4th quarter report in that post. Fifth Third Announces Fourth Quarter 2019 Results

Maximum Position: 100 shares + shares purchased with dividends

Current Position: 15 shares

Average Cost Per Share: 

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rules

Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share

Fifth Third Bancorp Announces Cash Dividends

Last Ex Dividend: 12/30/20

B. Added 10 IVZ at $17.53 and 10 at $17.41: 

These purchases were made in the Schwab account where I have an ongoing small ball "buying program" in ten share lots. The current position in that account is 30 shares 

Closing Price 2/7/20: IVZ $18.22 +$0.02 +0.11% 

Current Average Cost Per Share this Account = $17.58 

Quote: INVESCO Ltd.
IVZ SEC Filings

Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 ($1.24 annually)

Invesco-Dividend information

Next Ex Dividend date: 2/12/20

Dividend Yield at Average Cost of $17.58 = 7.05%

Last Discussed: Item # 3 Bought 50 IVZ at $17.91 (Fidelity account) and 10 at $17.81 in Schwab Account   (1/5/20 Post)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):

GAAP to Non-GAAP Adjustments: 

The merger and integration expense item relates to Invesco's acquisition of the Oppenheimer Funds. 

IVZ missed the consensus non-GAAP E.P.S. estimate by 4 cents. The consensus non-GAAP E.P.S. estimate was for $.70. 

Adjusted operating margins rose to 39.9% from 32.6% in the 2018 4th quarter.  

Invesco Reports Results for the Three Months and Year Ended December 31, 2019

Current and Maximum Position: 70 shares (2 accounts) with a maximum position of 150 shares total.  

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule in both accounts  

Brokerage Reports  (available to Charles Schwab customers)

Argus (1/30/20): Buy with a $26 PT

Credit Suisse (1/29/20): Neutral with a $19 PT 

S & P (1/29/20): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $20 (quality ranking at A-)

Morningstar (1/2/20): 3 stars with a FV of $21 and a narrow economic moat

Goal: A realized total return in excess of the dividend payments

C. Added 10 SJR at $19.53: 

Quotes: 

USD: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (SJR)
CAD: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (Canada: Toronto)

Closing Price 2/7/20: SJR $19.83 -$0.03 -0.15% 

Investor Relations
Shaw Communications Inc (USA) Profile | Reuters
Shaw Communications Inc Key Developments | Reuters
Only Buy Discussion: Item # 1 Bought 50 SJR at $20.16 and 50 at $19.7 (10/8/19 Post)

Only Sell Discussion: Item # 3.B. Sold 50 SJR at $20.85-Highest Cost Lot (11/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot: $34.19)

Dividend: Monthly at C$.098542 per share (C$1.18 annually)

The dividend yield will depend in part on the CAD/USD conversion rate. 

The yield will be impacted by the recovery of Canada's 15% withholding as a foreign tax credit when held in a U.S. citizen's taxable account. Claiming Foreign Taxes: Credit or Deduction? | Charles Schwab

Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, since I currently view the stock as undervalued.   

Maximum Position: 100 Shares + shares purchased with dividends 

Current Position: 60+ shares 

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next purchase has to be below $19.53)

Average Cost Per Share = $19.68

Goal: A realized total annual return of 6% to 8%

Analysts: 

TD Securities Sticks to Their Buy Rating for Shaw Communications (SJR)

Morningstar (1/13/20): 3 stars with a FV of US$22, C$29

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 11/30/19): 

"In Wireless, the Company continued to add subscribers, adding a net combined 57,911 postpaid and prepaid subscribers in the quarter, consisting of 66,865 postpaid additions offset by 8,954 prepaid losses. The increase in the postpaid subscriber base reflects continued customer demand for the Big Gig data centric and Absolute Zero pricing and packaging options. The decrease in the prepaid customer base reflects higher churn due to increased competitive activity."

Shaw Announces First Quarter Fiscal 2020 Results NYSE:SJR

D. Eliminated HTA-Sold 30 at $32.51: 

Quote: Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA)

Closing Price 2/7/20: HTA $31.99 -$0.07 -0.22% 

Profit Snapshot:  +$178.02 (30 share lot only)

This 30 share lot was part of a 50 share purchase: Item # 4 Bought 50 HTA at $26.88 (7/13/19 Post) The other 20 shares were sold in 2 ten share lots: Item # 1.A. Sold 10 HTA at $31.31 (1/29/20) and Item # 2.B. Sold 10 HTA at $30.81 (11/28/19 Post)(substantive discussion)

5 Year Chart (as of 2/5/2020): 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.315 per share ($1.26 annually)

Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/2019

Rationale: I view the stock as expensive at or near current levels, based on Price/FFO, FFO growth rates and dividend growth rates. All of those metrics are IMO unfavorable. 

Brokerage Report: 

S & P  (10/30/19): 3 stars with a 12 month price target of $31

HTA Realized Gains to Date: $392.58

Other Round-Trips: 


Item # 1.A. Sold 15 HTA at $28.57-Used Commission Free Trade(9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $46.12); Item # 2 Sold 50 HTA at $26.25 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 10/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $124.1)-Item # 5 Bought 50 HTA at $23.45 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 9/8/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

E. Pared JCAP-Sold 10 at $20.51 (highest cost lot):

Profit Snapshot = +$16.14 (2/6 pare only)

Quote: Jernigan Capital Inc. (JCAP)
Website: Jernigan Capital
SEC Filings

I mentioned selling 10 JCAP in my last post Item # 1.B. Sold 10 JCAP at $20.05 (2/5/20 Post) The profit snapshot in that post was $8.78 which has now been increased by Fidelity to $12.29 due to a return of capital ("ROC") adjustment. The entire dividend paid in 2019 was classified as 100% ROC. Jernigan Capital, Inc. Announces Taxable Composition of 2019 Distributions 

It is important to check how a REIT classifies its dividend distributions. 

When the classification is tilted toward non-qualified ordinary dividends, I would give more weight to owning shares in a retirement account.  

When the classification is tilted toward ROC, I am more inclined to own the shares in a taxable account. 

Average Cost this Account Before Pare: $18.35

Average Cost After Pare: $18.27

2. Sold 2 Ameren 2.7%  First Mortgage Notes Maturing on 9/1/22 ($1 commission): 

Sold at 102.038
YTM at 102.038 = 1.794%

FINRA Page: Bonds Detail

Profit Snapshot: $28.14

Item # 1.D. Bought 2 Ameren 2.7% First Mortgage Bonds at a Total Cost of 101.079 ( 5/15/17 Post)

Issuer: Ameren Illinois, a subsidiary of Ameren Corp. (AEE)

This may be the last corporate bond in my portfolio where my total cost exceeded par value. 

One consideration for selling this note now is that the issuer may redeem at par value on or after 6/1/2022 or 3 months prior to maturity:

I have decided to sell a few corporate bonds into the latest bond rally. 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.