Economy:
Consumer sentiment ticks up as unemployment remains around 50-year lows (99.8 vs. 99.1 consensus) This report was released before the market opened last Friday and did not prevent the stock sell off.
Personal Income and Outlays, December 2019 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Real disposable income decreased by .1% in December while real personal consumption expenditures increased by .1% (+.3% without the inflation adjustment).
US GDP Q4 2019 first reading The government estimated in its first guess that real GDP growth rose 2.1% in the 2019 4th quarter. If that estimate does not change, estimated 2019 real GDP growth will be 2.3% down from 2.9% in 2018.
The 2019 4th quarter estimate for personal consumption expenditures is currently at +1.8%, down from the +3.2% growth rate in the third quarter.
Page 7 Advance Estimate for 4th Quarter GDP.pdf
Russia closes border with China as coronavirus spreads: reports | Fox News
Delta and American Airlines halt flights as U.S. warns travelers to avoid China -MarketWatch
Coronavirus: companies suspend China operations, restrict travel
Border restrictions intensify as coronavirus takes root around China and across globe
Coronavirus may hit China economy harder than SARS, warns Nomura - MarketWatch That forecast is obvious based on what is known now. The impact will be far worse than SARS.
The question is whether the hit to China's economy will be large enough to cause a worldwide recession when growth was already slowing in other major regions.
China was slow to take action which allowed the new coronavirus to spread quickly.
A doctor who first reported the virus to China's authorities was disciplined and forced to recant his warning.
The authorities disciplined another 8 doctors in the Wuhan province for warning about the outbreak. They were accused of "rumormongering". Business Insider
China did not notify the World Health Organization until 12/31 about the outbreak. By the time Xi's government restricted travel out of Wuhan, over 5 million people had left the province.
As New Coronavirus Spread, China’s Old Habits Delayed Fight
Donald views Xi as a "brilliant" and "great" leader. Trump Calls Chinese President Xi a 'Great Leader' and 'Brilliant Man,' Criticizes Media Donald's admiration for dictators knows no boundaries.
Consumer sentiment ticks up as unemployment remains around 50-year lows (99.8 vs. 99.1 consensus) This report was released before the market opened last Friday and did not prevent the stock sell off.
Personal Income and Outlays, December 2019 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Real disposable income decreased by .1% in December while real personal consumption expenditures increased by .1% (+.3% without the inflation adjustment).
The 2019 4th quarter estimate for personal consumption expenditures is currently at +1.8%, down from the +3.2% growth rate in the third quarter.
Russia closes border with China as coronavirus spreads: reports | Fox News
Delta and American Airlines halt flights as U.S. warns travelers to avoid China -MarketWatch
Coronavirus: companies suspend China operations, restrict travel
Border restrictions intensify as coronavirus takes root around China and across globe
Coronavirus may hit China economy harder than SARS, warns Nomura - MarketWatch That forecast is obvious based on what is known now. The impact will be far worse than SARS.
The question is whether the hit to China's economy will be large enough to cause a worldwide recession when growth was already slowing in other major regions.
China was slow to take action which allowed the new coronavirus to spread quickly.
A doctor who first reported the virus to China's authorities was disciplined and forced to recant his warning.
The authorities disciplined another 8 doctors in the Wuhan province for warning about the outbreak. They were accused of "rumormongering". Business Insider
China did not notify the World Health Organization until 12/31 about the outbreak. By the time Xi's government restricted travel out of Wuhan, over 5 million people had left the province.
As New Coronavirus Spread, China’s Old Habits Delayed Fight
Donald views Xi as a "brilliant" and "great" leader. Trump Calls Chinese President Xi a 'Great Leader' and 'Brilliant Man,' Criticizes Media Donald's admiration for dictators knows no boundaries.
S&P 500 companies are complaining about tariffs despite Trump trade deal - MarketWatch
The Chicago purchasing manager index for January, released last Friday, was 42.9, much worse than the 48.5 consensus estimate. ISM Chicago, Inc. Any number below 50 indicates an ongoing contraction.
The Chicago purchasing manager index for January, released last Friday, was 42.9, much worse than the 48.5 consensus estimate. ISM Chicago, Inc. Any number below 50 indicates an ongoing contraction.
+++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Interest rates trended down in January:
Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
The 10 year treasury note has a lower yield than the 3 month treasury bill as of Friday's close.
Coronavirus shock could deliver double-digit hit to stock market, investor warns - MarketWatch
Do NOT buy the dip, warns investor who says a ‘brutal bear market’ looms - MarketWatch
Trump says coronavirus outbreak is 'all under control' and a 'very small problem' in US
Interest rates trended down in January:
The 10 year treasury note has a lower yield than the 3 month treasury bill as of Friday's close.
Coronavirus shock could deliver double-digit hit to stock market, investor warns - MarketWatch
Do NOT buy the dip, warns investor who says a ‘brutal bear market’ looms - MarketWatch
Trump says coronavirus outbreak is 'all under control' and a 'very small problem' in US
McDonald's (MCD) earnings Q4 2019 beat Wall Street estimates; McDonald's Reports Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2019 Results And Quarterly Cash Dividend
Boeing (BA) earnings Q4 2019 (lost $639M in 2019); Boeing Reports Fourth-Quarter Results
UPDATE 2-AT&T revenue falls short of estimates as satellite TV sheds subscribers (non-GAAP E.P.S. was reported at $.89 vs. $.87 consensus estimate; AT&T Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results The Direct TV acquisition can only be characterized as a disaster based on the price paid:
Microsoft rises toward more records after Azure, Windows 7 refresh produce earnings beat - MarketWatch; SEC Filed Earnings Press Release:
The Fed is complacent; the bond market is not - MarketWatch
Chevron (CVX) Q4 2019 earnings report shows $6.6 billion loss
This California couple scammed Berkshire Hathaway out of millions, feds say - Los Angeles Times Just amazing.
Boeing (BA) earnings Q4 2019 (lost $639M in 2019); Boeing Reports Fourth-Quarter Results
UPDATE 2-AT&T revenue falls short of estimates as satellite TV sheds subscribers (non-GAAP E.P.S. was reported at $.89 vs. $.87 consensus estimate; AT&T Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results The Direct TV acquisition can only be characterized as a disaster based on the price paid:
 |
| 4th Quarter Only |
Chevron (CVX) Q4 2019 earnings report shows $6.6 billion loss
This California couple scammed Berkshire Hathaway out of millions, feds say - Los Angeles Times Just amazing.
+++++
Trump:
Republican senators were never going to allow more proof to be presented of Donald's guilt. The all pervasive republican position that there was no quid pro quo would only become more ridiculous with more proof.
The political calculus was that more evidence would be damaging to Trump and would not change their votes. So why hear more damning evidence? No republican senator or House member could survive a primary election by voting for impeachment.
The Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander (R) is not concerned about re-election since he is retiring this year.
Consequently, Alexander found the courage to admit that Bolton's testimony was not necessary since the House managers had proved their case, an extremely rare admission among republican politicians. Alexander voted against receiving more evidence for that reason. Impeachment trial: Lamar Alexander explains vote against witnesses
Mr. Alexander opined, without providing any explanation, that Trump's conduct was not impeachable, while Clinton's lie about an extramarital affair, which had nothing to do with an abuse of presidential power, was impeachable.
The alleged moderate Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) voted against receiving more witness testimony and documents since she views the House impeachment as unfair even though the same process was followed as in prior impeachments. To ensure a fair trial in the senate, she voted against receiving relevant evidence. Lisa Murkowski can’t fix democracy, but she can fix a trial.
There are no moderate republicans in the House or Senate, and a dwindling and immaterial number of true conservatives.
Republican politicians are going to protect Donald no matter what he does and will continue to give him a green light to commit more acts in violation of the Constitution and his oath of office and to lie and mislead Americans without fear of being corrected by those politicians.
If those republican politicians were interested in Trump providing accurate information to the voters, which is not the case as proven over the past 3 years by their resounding silence, they could stand up for the truth, but that is not going to happen.
Silence is tantamount and equivalent to supporting the propagation of lies, and those who remain silent are as culpable as the one who lies all of the time.
Consequently, the only way to change that result will be at the ballot box next November. That was obviously the case before the whistleblower came forward and is even more obviously true now.
Trump Told Bolton to Help His Ukraine Pressure Campaign in early May 2019, Book Says - The New York Times Bolton says that Trump's demand was made in front of Mick Mulvaney, Rudy Giuliani, and WH counsel Pat Cipollone who defended Trump in the impeachment "trial".
Trump is doing whatever he can to prevent Bolton from publishing his book. White House has issued formal threat to Bolton to keep him from publishing book - CNN The threat was sent in a letter signed by Ellen J. Knight.
Most likely, Trump's claim that the book contains classified information is made in bad faith which would be normal for Donald.
If that proves to be the case, Donald's action would be an unconstitutional prior restraint of free speech that will not be rectified by the courts who are loathe to challenge security classifications made by the executive branch.
If the book is published, Trump would likely use the power of the Presidency to cause Barr to indict Bolton.
That threat, which is implicit in the WH letter, may be sufficient to stop the publication until a Democrat is elected as President, unless Bolton wants to throw the dice in a criminal trial.
It is not unusual for the U.S. government to classify information as top secret simply to avoid embarrassment or to cover up lies.
A classic example was the top secret classification of the Pentagon Papers. Those documents provided overwhelming proof that both the Johnson (D) and Nixon (R) administrations had repeatedly lied to the American people about matters relating to the Vietnam War. The documents were classified to keep the American people from knowing the truth.
Bolton’s lawyer contends his book does not contain classified material and asks White House for expedited review so he can testify if called - The Washington Post
Trump's attacks against Bolton highlight past attempts to influence witnesses - CNN
Anatomy of a ‘smear’: How John Bolton became a target of the pro-Trump Internet Smearing people who tell the truth about Donald is what the Trumpsters do. They can not help themselves.
{Republican House and Senate Members gleefully used the impeachment process to smear Biden, who they view as the most difficult to beat Democrat. (E.G. Senator Ernst (R): "IA caucuses are this next Monday evening. And I'm really interested to see how this discussion today informs and influences the Iowa caucus voters, those Dem caucus goers. Will they be supporting VP Biden at this point?" Jake Tapper Grills Joni Ernst on Joe Biden Comments ) That is precisely what Donald wanted when he first extorted Ukraine to investigate the Bidens as precondition to receiving military aid approved by Congress. Impeachment trial: The hypocrisy of Pam Bondi’s role on team Trump - Vox; Trump’s impeachment defense, distilled: he’s innocent and his opponents are guilty - The Washington Post; Day in Impeachment: President’s Defense Attacks Biden- NYT; Trump impeachment defense team turns attention to Bidens, Burisma}
In Kyiv, Pompeo does not dispute allegations in Bolton's book
Donald is of course attacking Bolton regularly now while trying to prevent the publication of his book:
E.G. from 1/29/20:
Giuliani Was Not a 'Minor Player' in Ukraine - FactCheck.org
Fact check: Trump made at least 27 false claims as Senate debated impeachment on Thursday
From 1/30/20:
Don the Authoritarian routinely claims that the "Fake News Media" did not cover, or "barely mentioned" some event when media organizations gave it prominent placement, which was the case with the "BIGGEST TRADE DEAL EVER MADE".
++
Secretary of State Mike "the Pompous" Pompeo:
The U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is a former Kansas congressman who was first elected in 2010 as part of the Tea Party movement and with the strong financial support of the Koch brothers. He was the representative for the Kansas's 4th congressional district.
The Koch Brothers Get Their Very Own Secretary of State | The Nation
Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeo owes his political career to the Koch Brothers — Quartz
He became noticed in the GOP due to his role in trying to pin the Benghazi terrorist attack on Hillary. Pompeo Has Been Undermining the State Department Since the Benghazi Investigation-Foreign Policy; Mike Pompeo Astounding Hypocrisy - The Atlantic
Pompeo's temperament came into focus again last week when he blew up at a NPR reporter Mary Louise Kelly after she dared to ask him why he failed to express support for Marie Yovanovitch, the former U.S. ambassador to the Ukraine.
Pompeo launched into an abusive, profanity laced harangue at Ms. Kelly for her audacity to ask him a question that he did not want to answer. NPR reporter: Pompeo asked me to find Ukraine on a map
This is a link to an opinion piece written by Ms. Kelly and published in the NYT: Opinion | Pompeo Called Me a ‘Liar.’ That’s Not What Bothers Me. - The New York Times
Pompeo then made matters worse for himself by issuing this statement:
Statement by Secretary Michael R. Pompeo - United States Department of State Another false claim made by Pompous Pompeo is that the reporter could not find Ukraine on a map.
Republican senators were never going to allow more proof to be presented of Donald's guilt. The all pervasive republican position that there was no quid pro quo would only become more ridiculous with more proof.
The political calculus was that more evidence would be damaging to Trump and would not change their votes. So why hear more damning evidence? No republican senator or House member could survive a primary election by voting for impeachment.
The Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander (R) is not concerned about re-election since he is retiring this year.
Consequently, Alexander found the courage to admit that Bolton's testimony was not necessary since the House managers had proved their case, an extremely rare admission among republican politicians. Alexander voted against receiving more evidence for that reason. Impeachment trial: Lamar Alexander explains vote against witnesses
Mr. Alexander opined, without providing any explanation, that Trump's conduct was not impeachable, while Clinton's lie about an extramarital affair, which had nothing to do with an abuse of presidential power, was impeachable.
The alleged moderate Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) voted against receiving more witness testimony and documents since she views the House impeachment as unfair even though the same process was followed as in prior impeachments. To ensure a fair trial in the senate, she voted against receiving relevant evidence. Lisa Murkowski can’t fix democracy, but she can fix a trial.
There are no moderate republicans in the House or Senate, and a dwindling and immaterial number of true conservatives.
Republican politicians are going to protect Donald no matter what he does and will continue to give him a green light to commit more acts in violation of the Constitution and his oath of office and to lie and mislead Americans without fear of being corrected by those politicians.
If those republican politicians were interested in Trump providing accurate information to the voters, which is not the case as proven over the past 3 years by their resounding silence, they could stand up for the truth, but that is not going to happen.
Silence is tantamount and equivalent to supporting the propagation of lies, and those who remain silent are as culpable as the one who lies all of the time.
Consequently, the only way to change that result will be at the ballot box next November. That was obviously the case before the whistleblower came forward and is even more obviously true now.
Trump Told Bolton to Help His Ukraine Pressure Campaign in early May 2019, Book Says - The New York Times Bolton says that Trump's demand was made in front of Mick Mulvaney, Rudy Giuliani, and WH counsel Pat Cipollone who defended Trump in the impeachment "trial".
Trump is doing whatever he can to prevent Bolton from publishing his book. White House has issued formal threat to Bolton to keep him from publishing book - CNN The threat was sent in a letter signed by Ellen J. Knight.
Most likely, Trump's claim that the book contains classified information is made in bad faith which would be normal for Donald.
If that proves to be the case, Donald's action would be an unconstitutional prior restraint of free speech that will not be rectified by the courts who are loathe to challenge security classifications made by the executive branch.
If the book is published, Trump would likely use the power of the Presidency to cause Barr to indict Bolton.
That threat, which is implicit in the WH letter, may be sufficient to stop the publication until a Democrat is elected as President, unless Bolton wants to throw the dice in a criminal trial.
It is not unusual for the U.S. government to classify information as top secret simply to avoid embarrassment or to cover up lies.
A classic example was the top secret classification of the Pentagon Papers. Those documents provided overwhelming proof that both the Johnson (D) and Nixon (R) administrations had repeatedly lied to the American people about matters relating to the Vietnam War. The documents were classified to keep the American people from knowing the truth.
Bolton’s lawyer contends his book does not contain classified material and asks White House for expedited review so he can testify if called - The Washington Post
Trump's attacks against Bolton highlight past attempts to influence witnesses - CNN
Anatomy of a ‘smear’: How John Bolton became a target of the pro-Trump Internet Smearing people who tell the truth about Donald is what the Trumpsters do. They can not help themselves.
{Republican House and Senate Members gleefully used the impeachment process to smear Biden, who they view as the most difficult to beat Democrat. (E.G. Senator Ernst (R): "IA caucuses are this next Monday evening. And I'm really interested to see how this discussion today informs and influences the Iowa caucus voters, those Dem caucus goers. Will they be supporting VP Biden at this point?" Jake Tapper Grills Joni Ernst on Joe Biden Comments ) That is precisely what Donald wanted when he first extorted Ukraine to investigate the Bidens as precondition to receiving military aid approved by Congress. Impeachment trial: The hypocrisy of Pam Bondi’s role on team Trump - Vox; Trump’s impeachment defense, distilled: he’s innocent and his opponents are guilty - The Washington Post; Day in Impeachment: President’s Defense Attacks Biden- NYT; Trump impeachment defense team turns attention to Bidens, Burisma}
In Kyiv, Pompeo does not dispute allegations in Bolton's book
Donald is of course attacking Bolton regularly now while trying to prevent the publication of his book:
E.G. from 1/29/20:
Fact check: Trump made at least 27 false claims as Senate debated impeachment on Thursday
From 1/30/20:
++
Secretary of State Mike "the Pompous" Pompeo:
The U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is a former Kansas congressman who was first elected in 2010 as part of the Tea Party movement and with the strong financial support of the Koch brothers. He was the representative for the Kansas's 4th congressional district.
The Koch Brothers Get Their Very Own Secretary of State | The Nation
Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeo owes his political career to the Koch Brothers — Quartz
He became noticed in the GOP due to his role in trying to pin the Benghazi terrorist attack on Hillary. Pompeo Has Been Undermining the State Department Since the Benghazi Investigation-Foreign Policy; Mike Pompeo Astounding Hypocrisy - The Atlantic
Pompeo's temperament came into focus again last week when he blew up at a NPR reporter Mary Louise Kelly after she dared to ask him why he failed to express support for Marie Yovanovitch, the former U.S. ambassador to the Ukraine.
Pompeo launched into an abusive, profanity laced harangue at Ms. Kelly for her audacity to ask him a question that he did not want to answer. NPR reporter: Pompeo asked me to find Ukraine on a map
This is a link to an opinion piece written by Ms. Kelly and published in the NYT: Opinion | Pompeo Called Me a ‘Liar.’ That’s Not What Bothers Me. - The New York Times
Pompeo then made matters worse for himself by issuing this statement:
As it turns out, Pompeo is the one who is lying. The email exchange between Pompeo's office and Ms. Kelly prior to the interview clearly show that no questions were off the table and that she would ask questions about Ukraine. Emails show Sec. of State's press officer was aware of potential questioning - The Washington Post
Pompous Pompeo's statement (previous snapshot) does indicate that he has learned a lot from Donald who routinely bad mouths those who are telling the truth, a successful tactic in the U.S. for those shameless enough to implement it.
Pompeo is just another pompous and arrogant asshole in an administration where being an arrogant and non-qualified jerk is a job requirement.
Pompeo privately admitted Giuliani claims about Ukraine ambassador were phony-Bolton Claim in his Upcoming Book
State Department boots NPR reporter from trip after Pompeo spat
Demagogue Don praised Pompous Pompeo for lying about the agreement for his interview and for hurling profanity laced invectives at the NPR reporter. Trump praises Pompeo over handling of NPR reporter: 'You did a good job on her'
*****
Ignorance is bliss since it requires no effort to learn the truth that may create doubts or questions about core beliefs.
Most people who have the opportunity to acquire accurate information IMO refuse to do so.
They are willfully ignorant.
It is easy to know almost nothing and to regurgitate cliches and reality creations rather than facts. It is easy and comfortable to live in an alternate reality bubble.
2 of 3 Americans Wouldn’t Pass U.S. Citizenship Test | Politics | US News
Donald understands that reality and knows how to take advantage of it through knowingly false and misleading statements repeated over and over again.
Republican politicians know that the path to acquiring and maintaining power is through demonstrably false narratives peddled by Demagogue Don.
Consequently, republicans in the House and Senate have remained silent, and will continue to do so, as Donald spins demonstrably false narratives virtually on a daily basis and frequently on multiple occasions during a single day.
Lying works for Donald and the party that he controls, so why stop? It is all about power rather than principles anyway.
The fact that lying works is only possible due to widespread ignorance and distrust of accurate sources of information created by a 5 decade effort by the republican party that started during Nixon's first term.
Trump's constant attacks on accurate reporting as Fake News, without providing any details supporting his claims, is accepted by tens of millions, most of whom would be hard pressed to identify and defend a single instance of erroneous reporting that had not been corrected by the news organization. This is particularly true for NYT and Washington Post articles which are deemed untrustworthy among those who have rarely, if ever, read a single article published by those papers.
This effort is the most successful political strategy in modern American history IMO and has help to create fertile ground for the emergence of an authoritarian demagogue, unfettered by the truth, now and in the future.
And the problem is exacerbated when millions do not question what they are told by their leaders, even when there is abundant evidence that contradicts those representations and even when the claims are just ridiculous, defy common sense and/or illogical. Why was it so easy for leaders of both political tribes to convince Americans to become involved in the Vietnam War or to invade Iraq allegedly in search of weapons of mass destruction?
The second most successful was the GOP's Southern strategy.
How Many Americans Know Where North Korea Is? - YouTube
Can You Name a Country? - YouTube Americans were ask to identify a single country on a world map.
We Asked People If They Care About Homo Sapien Extinction - YouTube
+++
The three must vulnerable republican senators in the 2020 election cycle are Susan Collins (Maine), Cory Gardner (Colorado) and Martha McSally (Arizona). They face serious opponents. Gardiner and McSally have done mind and body melds with Donald and have become indistinguishable from him which is what republicans want from their representatives.
Mark Kelly — Donate via ActBlue (Arizona)
ActBlue — John Hickenlooper — John Hickenlooper (Colorado)
Sara Gideon — Donate via ActBlue (Maine)
The other possible states for flips are Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, North Carolina and Kentucky. I view those states as unlikely pickups for the democrats but possible with the right candidates and growing dissatisfaction with a Trump dominated GOP .
McConnell may end up having a close re-election race against Amy McGrath:
Amy McGrath — Donate via ActBlue
I consider Tom Tillis (R-NC) as vulnerable in the purple state of North Carolina but his defeat will require a well funded and appealing moderate Democrat. That may end up being Cal Cunningham.
The republican party is no longer salvageable as a party where true conservatives are welcome or have a role to play.
I have far too many policy disagreements with liberal Democrats, including Senators Sanders and Warren, to support them.
That leaves moderate democrats, who still have an effective voice in that party, as my only choice.
I have already donated money to Amy McGrath, Mark Kelly and John Hickenlooper.
I do not yet know enough about Sara Gideon to make a contribution and probably will not do so since her campaign will be well funded for such a small state.
For example almost $4M has already been raised for the Democrat candidate through Crowdpac who will run against Collins. That money is already in the bank.
+++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
1. Small Ball Trades:
A. Eliminated MFC-Sold 32 at $20.63:
Quotes:
USD Priced Shares: Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC)
CAD Priced Shares: Manulife Financial Corp (Canada: Toronto)
MFC Analyst Estimates
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Sold 20 MFC at $18.78 (11/2/19 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$104.79
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.25 per share
Manulife Financial Corporation Declares Common Share Dividend
The dividend yield for MFC will depend on the CAD/USD conversion rate. When owned in a non-retirement account, Canada is entitled to withhold a dividend tax of 15% under its tax treaty with the U.S.
USD Priced Shares: Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC)
CAD Priced Shares: Manulife Financial Corp (Canada: Toronto)
MFC Analyst Estimates
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Sold 20 MFC at $18.78 (11/2/19 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$104.79
Manulife Financial Corporation Declares Common Share Dividend
The dividend yield for MFC will depend on the CAD/USD conversion rate. When owned in a non-retirement account, Canada is entitled to withhold a dividend tax of 15% under its tax treaty with the U.S.
Realized Gains: My largest realized MFC gain to date occurred when I sold 100 shares at $18.28, booking a $481.06 profit.
That lot consisted of two 50 share purchases: Item # 1 Added 50 MFC at $13.1: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 7/24/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha and Item # 1 Bought 50 MFC at $13.78 Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 3/13/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
B. Added 5 RLJ at $16.19 and 5 at $15.8:
Quote: RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ)
SEC Filings
Property List as of 9/30/19: Page 14 10-Q
Company Website: RLJ | Lodging Trust
RLJ Chart since IPO
Hotel stocks were in a bear market before the most recent virus outbreak accelerated their price slides.
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2 B. Bought 20 RLJ at $16.85
Maximum Position: 100 Shares + shares purchased with dividends
Current Position: 40 Shares
Average Cost Per Share = $16.57
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rules
Dividend: Quarterly at $.33 per share ($1.32 annually)
Dividend Yield at $16.57 = 7.96%
I have nothing further to add to my recent discussions.
C. Added 1 XOM at $66.16; 1 at $65.42; 1 at 64.96; 2 at 64.87, 1 at $64.22; 2 at $62.4 and 2 at $69.14 (completed Small Ball Buying Program):
Quote: Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
It will be awhile before this one turns up.
Exxon Mobil Corp. Analyst Estimates
Exxon SEC Filings
Exxon sinks to 10-year low with 'little to be excited about' for near future-Seeking Alpha
Oil stocks are the new tobacco, in ‘death knell phase,’ says Jim Cramer - MarketWatch That is a bit of hyperbole but is consistent with the pessimism which is pervasive now.
Recent News Since Last Discussion: Exxon makes new Guyana discovery, ups recoverable estimates to 8 billion barrels - HoustonChronicle.com
Last Discussed: I discussed the 2019 third quarter earnings report in this post, which I described as awful: Item # 3.B. Added 2 XOM at $67.38 (11/2/19 Post); ExxonMobil Earns $3.2 Billion in Third Quarter 2019; Exxon mixed Q3 results-Seeking Alpha
Other Recent Discussions: Item # 1.A. Bought 3 XOM at $67.77 (9/4/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 5 XOM at $71.35 (8/19/19 Post); Item # 4.A. (7/27/19 Post)
XOM 5 Year Chart: Major Bear Market of unknown depth and duration
Dividend: Quarterly at $.87 per share (annually at $3.48)
Dividend information | ExxonMobil
Next Ex Dividend Date: 2/10/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes at below $75
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/2019):
This report was released before the market opened on 1/31.
SEC Filed Press Release I would emphasize that GAAP E.P.S. of $1.33 included "about $3.9 billion, or $0.92 per share assuming dilution, mainly a $3.7 billion gain from the Norway upstream divestment." If I backed out the extraordinary positive items, E.P.S. would be just $.41 which is IMO the relevant number.
Summaries of that report can be found in these articles: Exxon Mobil Misses Q4 Earnings Forecast, Beats on Revenues - TheStreet; Exxon Mobil (XOM) Q4 2019 miss estimates
Current Position: 30+ shares
Average Cost Per Share = $ 69.42
Dividend Yield at $70.5 = 5.01%
Maximum Position: 30 Shares + shares purchased with dividends
While I am at my full position of 30 shares now, I would probably buy another 5 shares in the unlikely event the price fell below $50. The highest cost lot was a 10 share purchase at $74.78 (7/28/19), which seemed rational at the time but not now. When and if the price exceeds that amount, that 10 shares will be sold.
D. Bought 10 HBAN at $13.5:
Quote: Huntington Bancshares Inc.
HBAN | Huntington Bancshares Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Bought 50 HBAN at $14.51 (1/22/20 Post) That purchase was made shortly before HBAN released its 2019 4th quarter earnings report which was unfavorable. I mentioned in an earlier comment that several of the important financial metrics were moving in the wrong direction.
I have elected to continue my small ball "buying program" given HBAN's dividend yield and low P/E. However, I am expanding the gaps for averaging down. In this case expanding the gaps between purchases meant waiting for the price to sink to $13.5 rather than just a break below $14.
Current Position: 60 Shares
Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (10 share lots)
Average Cost Per Share: $14.34
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share ($.6 annually)
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 4.18%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 3/17/20
Consensus E.P.S. Estimate 2020 (as of 1/28/19) = $1.3
P/E at Average Cost Using Current Consensus 2020 E.P.S. =
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): SEC Filed Press Release
NIM declined to 3.12% from 3.41% in the 2018 4th quarter. This decline is the most serious obstacle to earnings growth, IMO.
There was a slight improvement in the efficiency ratio and return on assets Y-O-Y.
"Net income for the 2019 fourth quarter was $317 million, a 5% decrease from the year-ago quarter. Earnings per common share for the 2019 fourth quarter were $0.28, down 3% from the year-ago quarter. Return on average assets for the 2019 fourth quarter was 1.15%, return on average common equity was 11.1%, and return on average tangible common equity was 14.3%."
It will be awhile before this one turns up.
Exxon Mobil Corp. Analyst Estimates
Exxon SEC Filings
Exxon sinks to 10-year low with 'little to be excited about' for near future-Seeking Alpha
Oil stocks are the new tobacco, in ‘death knell phase,’ says Jim Cramer - MarketWatch That is a bit of hyperbole but is consistent with the pessimism which is pervasive now.
Recent News Since Last Discussion: Exxon makes new Guyana discovery, ups recoverable estimates to 8 billion barrels - HoustonChronicle.com
Last Discussed: I discussed the 2019 third quarter earnings report in this post, which I described as awful: Item # 3.B. Added 2 XOM at $67.38 (11/2/19 Post); ExxonMobil Earns $3.2 Billion in Third Quarter 2019; Exxon mixed Q3 results-Seeking Alpha
Other Recent Discussions: Item # 1.A. Bought 3 XOM at $67.77 (9/4/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 5 XOM at $71.35 (8/19/19 Post); Item # 4.A. (7/27/19 Post)
XOM 5 Year Chart: Major Bear Market of unknown depth and duration
Dividend: Quarterly at $.87 per share (annually at $3.48)
Dividend information | ExxonMobil
Next Ex Dividend Date: 2/10/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes at below $75
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/2019):
This report was released before the market opened on 1/31.
Summaries of that report can be found in these articles: Exxon Mobil Misses Q4 Earnings Forecast, Beats on Revenues - TheStreet; Exxon Mobil (XOM) Q4 2019 miss estimates
Current Position: 30+ shares
Average Cost Per Share = $ 69.42
Dividend Yield at $70.5 = 5.01%
Maximum Position: 30 Shares + shares purchased with dividends
While I am at my full position of 30 shares now, I would probably buy another 5 shares in the unlikely event the price fell below $50. The highest cost lot was a 10 share purchase at $74.78 (7/28/19), which seemed rational at the time but not now. When and if the price exceeds that amount, that 10 shares will be sold.
D. Bought 10 HBAN at $13.5:
Quote: Huntington Bancshares Inc.
HBAN | Huntington Bancshares Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Bought 50 HBAN at $14.51 (1/22/20 Post) That purchase was made shortly before HBAN released its 2019 4th quarter earnings report which was unfavorable. I mentioned in an earlier comment that several of the important financial metrics were moving in the wrong direction.
I have elected to continue my small ball "buying program" given HBAN's dividend yield and low P/E. However, I am expanding the gaps for averaging down. In this case expanding the gaps between purchases meant waiting for the price to sink to $13.5 rather than just a break below $14.
Current Position: 60 Shares
Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (10 share lots)
Average Cost Per Share: $14.34
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share ($.6 annually)
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 4.18%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 3/17/20
Consensus E.P.S. Estimate 2020 (as of 1/28/19) = $1.3
P/E at Average Cost Using Current Consensus 2020 E.P.S. =
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): SEC Filed Press Release
NIM declined to 3.12% from 3.41% in the 2018 4th quarter. This decline is the most serious obstacle to earnings growth, IMO.
There was a slight improvement in the efficiency ratio and return on assets Y-O-Y.
E. Added 5 RDS/B at $56.2 and 2 at $53.23:
 |
| at $56.2 Before Earnings Report 5 shares |
 |
| at $53.23 After Earnings Report 2 shares |
Quote: RDS.B | Royal Dutch Shell PLC ADR B Overview | MarketWatch
Last Earnings Report (12/31/19): This ugly report was released after this purchase: Royal Dutch Shell profit slides significantly in fourth quarter - MarketWatch
SEC Filed Press Release
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Current Position: 22 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rules
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes at less than $70 per share.
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.A. Bought 10 RDS/B at $57.45(12/18/19 Post)
Dividends: Quarterly at $.94 per share or $3.96 annually.
Dividend announcements | Shell Global
Next Ex Dividend date: 2/13/20 Interim dividend timetable | Shell Global
2. Eliminated HTPRD-Sold 50 at $25.67 (a Roth IRA Account):
Quote: Hersha Hospitality Trust 6.5% Cumulative Preferred Series D Stock
Profit Snapshot: +$271.47
Investment Strategy: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks as part of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket
HTPRD Trading Profits to Date: +$848.93 ($577.46 in prior trades)
Some Prior Trades:
Item # 2.A. Sold 50 HTPRD at $25.62 (10/11/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $161.46)- Item # 1.A. Bought 50 HTPRD at $22.3-Used Schwab Commission Free Trade (11/11/18 Post)
Item # 1.B. Sold 50 HTPRD in Roth IRA Account at $22.39 (3/6/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.49)-Item # 1.B. Bought 50 HTPRD at $21.34-In a Roth IRA Account (11/11/18 Post)
Item # 1.A. Sold Last 50 HTPRD Shares at $25.85 (10/9/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $30.97)-Item # 3.A. Bought 50 HTPRD at $24.95 (6/29/17 Post)
Items # 2.A, 2.B. and 2.C.: Sold 150 HTPRD in Three 50 share lots at $25.8 (9/18/17 post)(profit snapshots $237.46)
Items # 3.A. and #3.B (6/29/17 Post)
Security Description:
Issuer: Hersha Hospitality Trust Cl A (HT)
Cumulative Dividends: Yes
Stopper Clause: Yes
Stopper Clause: Yes
Dividends: Paid Quarterly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/28/19
Maturity Date: Potentially perpetual subject to issuer's call right
Maturity Date: Potentially perpetual subject to issuer's call right
Qualified Dividends: No, pass through entity
When buying preferred stocks over the past several years, any return in excess of the dividend yield is viewed as satisfactory. Most investable U.S. preferred stocks are selling in excess of their respective $25 par values.
When buying preferred stocks over the past several years, any return in excess of the dividend yield is viewed as satisfactory. Most investable U.S. preferred stocks are selling in excess of their respective $25 par values.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
ReplyDelete60.73-1.39 (-2.24%)
Volume 24,342,769
Avg. Volume 14,432,378
At close: 4:03PM EST
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM?p=XOM
Goldman Sachs lowered its rating to sell today and cut its PT to $59 from $72.
Credit Suisse cuts its PT to $65 from $70 but maintained its neutral rating.
ScotiaBank lowered its PT to $72 from $74 and kept its underperform rating.
J P Morgan lowered its PT to $72 from $76 and maintained its neutral rating.
Berenburg cut its PT to $63 from $67.
Those PT revisions and ratings downgrades are a bit late.
I do not have access to those reports, but the actions were probably in response to the earnings report (discussed in this post), management's commitment to its previously announced long term spending plans notwithstanding the current weakness in crude prices, and to the plunging crude oil price. WTI finished below $50 per barrel today.
$49.97 USD -$1.66 (-3.22%) 04:33:00 PM EST
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti
Looks like I am going to be a long term holder of my 30 shares.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/02/bhb-jcap-pbct-pk-rf.html