Economy:
Jobless claims jump another 4.4 million — 26 million Americans have lost their jobs to the coronavirus - MarketWatch; DOL News Release 4/23/20
All of the jobs created after the Near Depression in 2008 have now been lost, at least temporarily.
Durable-goods orders plunge 14.4% in March as automakers, Boeing take big hit - MarketWatch
Chicago Fed economic index plunges, latest measure to reflect crippling effect of coronavirus on U.S. growth - MarketWatch
As you can see from this chart, the plunge in this index is consistent with an ongoing recession:
Chicago Fed National Activity Index-St. Louis Fed
Chicago Federal Reserve index hints at US recession starting in March - Business Insider It is more than a "hint".
Jobless claims jump another 4.4 million — 26 million Americans have lost their jobs to the coronavirus - MarketWatch; DOL News Release 4/23/20
All of the jobs created after the Near Depression in 2008 have now been lost, at least temporarily.
Durable-goods orders plunge 14.4% in March as automakers, Boeing take big hit - MarketWatch
Chicago Fed economic index plunges, latest measure to reflect crippling effect of coronavirus on U.S. growth - MarketWatch
As you can see from this chart, the plunge in this index is consistent with an ongoing recession:
Chicago Federal Reserve index hints at US recession starting in March - Business Insider It is more than a "hint".
Record government and corporate debt risks ‘tipping point’ after pandemic passes The Day of Reckoning is moving closer to the present. The federal government debt will increase by over $4 trillion this year. Corporate debt is also accelerating at a rapid pace. I would use the phrase "tipping point" in a different manner. The tipping point is when the federal government clearly passes a point in time where actions requiring significant sacrifice could be taken to avoid the Day of Reckoning. That point was reached this year, thereby making the end game inevitable and unavoidable IMO.
Stirrings of unrest around the world could portend turmoil as economies collapse
U.S. existing home sales tumble in March - Reuters
The St Louis FED Financial Stress Index has recently been modified (blue line) from its original version (red line):
Global auto sales expected to plummet 22% in 2020 due to coronavirus
New York Fed Weekly Economic Index:
Russia is the world’s biggest loser from oil’s crash, and that’s reason to worry - MarketWatch
+++++++
I would note that no House republican voted for Obama's stimulus package that was passed in response to the Near Depression. H.R. 1 (111th): American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 -- GovTrack.us
About a third of that package consisted of tax breaks, including a $116B payroll tax credit. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009; Publication 553 (Rev. June 2009 explaining the tax credit). The estimated cost was initially thought to be less than $800B over the 2009-2019 period, but the CBO later revised that estimate to about $831B. Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output from July 2011 Through September 2011
The recently passed stimulus packages will end up costing almost 4 times more, but republicans in both the senate and house overwhelmingly supported the expenditures. Why would they support those packages and overwhelmingly vote against the much smaller Obama plan? The Democrats supported both. It is important to see people for who they are rather than who they pretend to be.
The truth of the matter is that the republicans would have allowed the economy to go to hell in 2009 rather than cooperate with a black Democrat president. McConnell and other republicans had already made it clear that defeating the democrats in the 2010 midterms and Obama in 2012 was their overreaching dominant goal. Sure, they will dress it up as some kind of principle, convenient for the moment and later forgotten or abandoned altogether when yes votes are needed to save themselves and a republican president.
Only 3 republican senators voted for the Obama stimulus plan. One of those senators, Arlen Specter, later became a Democrat. The other two were the two women senators from Maine. H.R. 1 (111th): American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 -- GovTrack.us
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Why Mark Mobius says stock-market investors should be prepared for a retest of the lows - MarketWatch It will be difficult for investors to shrug off bad economic and earnings news, but so far they have largely managed to do so.
‘The world is more screwed up’ than the stock market is currently reflecting, warns billionaire investor Howard Marks - MarketWatch
Coronavirus: El-Erian sees US economy contracting 10%-14% in 2020
Why Mark Mobius says stock-market investors should be prepared for a retest of the lows - MarketWatch It will be difficult for investors to shrug off bad economic and earnings news, but so far they have largely managed to do so.
‘The world is more screwed up’ than the stock market is currently reflecting, warns billionaire investor Howard Marks - MarketWatch
Coronavirus: El-Erian sees US economy contracting 10%-14% in 2020
Coronavirus will hit market for 18 to 24 months: Phil Orlando By hit, Orlando is referring to how long it may take for the S & P 500 to surpass the previous high. That is still optimistic using that yardstick IMO.
United Airlines warns of $2.1 billion loss and revenue miss, to receive up to $9.5 billion under CARES Act - MarketWatch
Coca-Cola (KO) earnings Q1 2020 (KO noted that global demand declined by 25% since the start of April)
Last week was just another example of the Stock Jocks ignoring really bad economic news which does not even call into question their current consensus opinion that a robust recovery will start no later than the third quarter and will only gain momentum thereafter.
The fact that the economic news is horrific now and will continue to be awful for weeks is accepted by stock investors, but viewed as irrelevant when valuing most companies longer term
So really bad news next week or next month, or even into the summer months, will probably only cause temporary and mild anxiety attacks. Maybe if conditions do not look so hot in August, for whatever reason, the optimism bubble could then pop and investors buying now can revisit that all is lost feeling again with a retest of the March low.
Coca-Cola (KO) earnings Q1 2020 (KO noted that global demand declined by 25% since the start of April)
Last week was just another example of the Stock Jocks ignoring really bad economic news which does not even call into question their current consensus opinion that a robust recovery will start no later than the third quarter and will only gain momentum thereafter.
The fact that the economic news is horrific now and will continue to be awful for weeks is accepted by stock investors, but viewed as irrelevant when valuing most companies longer term
So really bad news next week or next month, or even into the summer months, will probably only cause temporary and mild anxiety attacks. Maybe if conditions do not look so hot in August, for whatever reason, the optimism bubble could then pop and investors buying now can revisit that all is lost feeling again with a retest of the March low.
+++++
Trump:
Special Report: Former Labradoodle breeder was tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force - Reuters No one should be surprised since Donald only hires the best people. 17 of the ‘best people’ Trump hired — and then attacked - The Washington Post;
President Trump made 18,000 false or misleading claims in 1,170 days - The Washington Post Those are just the ones publicly made. For Trumpsters, the Fake News does not come from Donald, of course, but from the fact checking organizations that tally his demonstrably false statements.
75% of republicans view Trump as honest. (Question 11 National (US) Poll - March 9, 2020) They are of course hopeless.
Maryland GOP Governor says Trump's claim that states have enough testing capacity is "absolutely false"
'Delusional,' 'Absolutely false': Governors cry foul on Trump testing claims
Coronavirus Testing Hampered by Disarray, Shortages, Backlogs
Fact check: Trump's Saturday (4/18) coronavirus briefing was littered with false claims, old and new
Fact check: President Trump's false claims from Tuesday's (4/21) coronavirus briefing
Fact check: Trump wrongly declares some states don't have 'any problem' with coronavirus
Trump's Inaccurate COVID-19 Death Rate Comparison - FactCheck.org
PolitiFact | Donald Trump falsely claims Nancy Pelosi deleted video telling people to go to Chinatown; Trump's False Claims about Pelosi and Chinatown - FactCheck.org
FactChecking Trump's Attack on the WHO - FactCheck.org ("President Donald Trump made a series of false, misleading and unsubstantiated claims about the WHO.")
Trump's Inaccurate COVID-19 Death Rate Comparison - FactCheck.org
Donald does not like tough questions from a reporter, particularly when the reporter is a woman, in this example CBS News' Weijia Jiang.
Special Report: Former Labradoodle breeder was tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force - Reuters No one should be surprised since Donald only hires the best people. 17 of the ‘best people’ Trump hired — and then attacked - The Washington Post;
President Trump made 18,000 false or misleading claims in 1,170 days - The Washington Post Those are just the ones publicly made. For Trumpsters, the Fake News does not come from Donald, of course, but from the fact checking organizations that tally his demonstrably false statements.
75% of republicans view Trump as honest. (Question 11 National (US) Poll - March 9, 2020) They are of course hopeless.
Maryland GOP Governor says Trump's claim that states have enough testing capacity is "absolutely false"
'Delusional,' 'Absolutely false': Governors cry foul on Trump testing claims
Coronavirus Testing Hampered by Disarray, Shortages, Backlogs
Fact check: Trump's Saturday (4/18) coronavirus briefing was littered with false claims, old and new
Fact check: President Trump's false claims from Tuesday's (4/21) coronavirus briefing
Trump's Inaccurate COVID-19 Death Rate Comparison - FactCheck.org
PolitiFact | Donald Trump falsely claims Nancy Pelosi deleted video telling people to go to Chinatown; Trump's False Claims about Pelosi and Chinatown - FactCheck.org
FactChecking Trump's Attack on the WHO - FactCheck.org ("President Donald Trump made a series of false, misleading and unsubstantiated claims about the WHO.")
Trump's Inaccurate COVID-19 Death Rate Comparison - FactCheck.org
Donald does not like tough questions from a reporter, particularly when the reporter is a woman, in this example CBS News' Weijia Jiang.
She challenged Trump's demonstrably false claims that he banned travel from China and closed the border with China. Donald imposed some restrictions on Chinese nationals traveling to the U.S. About 40,000 people travelled from China to the U.S. after Donald allegedly banned travel and closed the border. Direct flights brought 40k from China after Trump travel ban - Axios There was insufficient screening of those travelers.
{Trump on 4/19/2o: “Crazy Nancy Pelosi deleted this from her Twitter account. She wanted everyone to pack into Chinatown long after I closed the BORDER TO CHINA. Based on her statement, she is responsible for many deaths. She’s an incompetent, third-rate politician!” Transcript Quote - Press Conference: Donald Trump Holds the Daily Coronavirus Pandemic Briefing - April 19, 2020 | Factbase There are a number of demonstrably false statements just in that one quote, which is normal for Demagogue Don, including the lie that Pelosi deleted a tweet Trump vs. Pelosi: What happened in Chinatown - The Washington Post.}
When the Trumpsters are all gone, and no one even remembers the Trump sycophants at Fox other than possibly some of their lineal descendants, Trump's tweets will still live on and will be what most Americans will remember about his Presidency. {Most people could not tell you anything about that their 2nd great grandparents and nothing or close to it about their 1x great grandparents}
Trump Adviser Stephen Moore Compares Coronavirus Protesters to Rosa Parks;
A Group Linked To Betsy DeVos Is Organizing Protests To End Social Distancing;
Trump calls protesters against stay-at-home orders 'very responsible'-The Guardian Fact checkers also noted that Trump's claim about the protestors standing six feet apart was false. Fact check: On Sunday, Trump takes no break from repeating false virus claims Looking at some pictures, I saw more people carrying weapons than wearing masks.
U.S. sent millions of face masks to China in January and February 2020, ignoring pandemic warning signs - The Washington Post
Eager to return to normal, Trump and Pence offer questionable coronavirus data
{Trump on 4/19/2o: “Crazy Nancy Pelosi deleted this from her Twitter account. She wanted everyone to pack into Chinatown long after I closed the BORDER TO CHINA. Based on her statement, she is responsible for many deaths. She’s an incompetent, third-rate politician!” Transcript Quote - Press Conference: Donald Trump Holds the Daily Coronavirus Pandemic Briefing - April 19, 2020 | Factbase There are a number of demonstrably false statements just in that one quote, which is normal for Demagogue Don, including the lie that Pelosi deleted a tweet Trump vs. Pelosi: What happened in Chinatown - The Washington Post.}
When the Trumpsters are all gone, and no one even remembers the Trump sycophants at Fox other than possibly some of their lineal descendants, Trump's tweets will still live on and will be what most Americans will remember about his Presidency. {Most people could not tell you anything about that their 2nd great grandparents and nothing or close to it about their 1x great grandparents}
Trump Adviser Stephen Moore Compares Coronavirus Protesters to Rosa Parks;
A Group Linked To Betsy DeVos Is Organizing Protests To End Social Distancing;
Trump calls protesters against stay-at-home orders 'very responsible'-The Guardian Fact checkers also noted that Trump's claim about the protestors standing six feet apart was false. Fact check: On Sunday, Trump takes no break from repeating false virus claims Looking at some pictures, I saw more people carrying weapons than wearing masks.
U.S. sent millions of face masks to China in January and February 2020, ignoring pandemic warning signs - The Washington Post
Eager to return to normal, Trump and Pence offer questionable coronavirus data
Steve Schmidt is one of the few republicans who haves not drank Trump's Kool Aid. Trump Blasted For Most Inept Response To 'Any Crisis In History'-YouTube
Americans at World Health Organization transmitted real-time information about coronavirus to Trump administration - The Washington Post
In TrumpWorld, healthcare workers have more than enough personal protection equipment: ‘We’re beyond angered’: Fed up nurses file lawsuits, plan protest at White House over lack of coronavirus protections
VA Instructs Coronavirus-Exposed Staff to Continue Working, Places Those Who Don’t in AWOL Status - Government Executive; More than 1,600 employees at VA medical facilities have coronavirus | Federal News Network
Trump refers to the existing tests show who "us who might have developed the wonderful, beautiful, immunity.” Even if test properly shows the presence of antibodies, it is not clear what the level needs to be in order to provide immunity or how long immunity will last even it exists. Coronavirus immunity remains big question mark for a country eager to reopen - The Washington Post
Virus-Denialist-in-Chief: Trump Claims 'You May Not Even Have Corona Coming Back' as Fauci Says 'I Am Convinced' It Will
Trump approved of Georgia’s plan to reopen businesses before bashing it - MarketWatch
EPA guts rule credited with cleaning up toxic air from coal and oil power plants-MarketWatch Under Trump the EPA is no longer the Environmental Protection Agency but the polluters protection agency. In TrumpWorld, global warming does not exist and climate science is Fake News.
Covid-19 Updates:
Autopsies find first U.S. coronavirus death occurred in early February, weeks earlier than previously thought Covid-19 was already spreading in the U.S. in early February.
When 6 feet isn’t nearly enough to keep you safe from the coronavirus - MarketWatch In a study published in the journal of Emerging Infectious Diseases, one diner at a restaurant, who was infected and asymptomatic, spread COVID-19 to 9 other diners. Droplet spread was accomplished through air conditioner air flow. How Coronavirus Infected Some, but Not All, in a Restaurant - The New York Times I suspect that the rapid spread of infections about the Diamond Princess, occurring after passengers were quarantined to their quarters, was in part accomplished through air conditioner ventilation.
I thought this was a useful article, written by an emergency room physician treating COVID-19 infections, that provides practical advice on how to measure at home early lung problems associated with a COVID 19 infection. The Infection That’s Silently Killing Coronavirus Patients - The New York Times In its early stages, the infected person may not even realize that lung function is deteriorating. Normal oxygen saturation for most persons is 94 percent to 100 percent at sea level. It may take a week or so before an infected person has shortness of breath even though a chest X reveals pneumonia and the patient has low levels of oxygen (silent hypoxia). The doctor explains how that happens. Suffice it to say, you can purchase a pulse oximetry device that measures oxygen saturation levels. Amazon.com: pulse oximeter
WHO chief warns the worst of the coronavirus is still ahead
The FDA is giving emergency approvals to antibody tests that do not work. Covid-19 Antibody Test, Seen as Key to Reopening Country, Does Not Yet Deliver - The New York Times; FDA did not review many coronavirus antibody tests flooding the market - The Washington Post
COVID 19 at Meat packing plants: USA Today Investigation
More than 1,800 inmates at Marion Correctional positive coronavirus
90 workers test positive for COVID-19 at Tyson Foods Goodlettsville plant; company says its taking measures
The republican governor of Iowa, Kim Reynolds, has refused to close and clean an Iowa meat packing facility notwithstanding soaring Covid-19 infections and an observation by the county sheriff Tony Thompson that many employees had no personal protective equipment. Waterloo Tyson TRANSCRIPT: 4/20/20
The republican Governor said that she was aware of a "suspected outbreak" at the plant. County Officials See COVID-19 Surge From Waterloo Meat Packing Plant; Governor Won't Close It | Iowa Public Radio; Coronavirus: Local officials blast Tyson Foods for keeping Iowa plant open Notwithstanding the republican Governor's refusal to shut the plant temporarily to protect worker and community health, Tyson elected to do so. Tyson packing plant in Waterloo shutting down indefinitely after dozens of workers come down with coronavirus | weareiowa.com That was the prudent thing to do until the plant can be cleaned, all workers tested and any uninfected workers returned to work with proper PPE.
The Federal Government Must Act on Supply Chains to Enable COVID-19 Testing in High Volumes (press release from the American Association for Clinical Chemistry)
Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say - The New York Times
WHO warning: No evidence antibody tests can show coronavirus immunity
In New York’s largest hospital system, 88 percent of coronavirus patients on ventilators didn’t make it
++
Trump's Reality Creation on the Swine Flu Pandemic:
The Fake News President has a new reality creation:
Donald is incapable of being straight with the American people. Lying all the time works extremely well for him on about 1/2 of voters so why stop.
The Swine Flu pandemic resulted, not in in 17K U.S. deaths as falsely claimed by Lying Don, but 12,469.
The Swine Flu was a new strain of flu virus that first appeared in the spring of 2009. 2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC
Few young people had an existing immunity, whereas about 1/3rd of persons over 60 had antibodies against this virus.
A vaccine was quickly developed but was not available in large quantities until November 2009 after a peak in infections.
The CDC summarized the excellent response to this pandemic in this publication. CDC Novel H1N1 Flu | The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: Summary Highlights, April 2009-April 2010 Donald does not want anyone to actually read that kind of publication.
Only in TrumpWorld could a democrat President be blamed for a really fast vaccine development and the understandable issues in producing mass quantities of the vaccine so quickly after the initial infection was discovered (April 2009) and a vaccine developed.
++
Fox "News" and the Covid-19 Pandemic:
A Beloved Bar Owner, Joe Joyce, Was Skeptical About the Virus. Then He Took a Cruise. - The New York Times Mr. Joyce unfortunately watched Fox "News" and Sean Hannity. He believed what the was being told by Hannity that the public was being scared "unnecessarily". He went on a cruise in early March and died of Covid-19. How Fox’s Sean Hannity has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic in America | Media Matters for America
Sean Hannity opened his Fox "News" program on 2/27/20 with the following comments:
Americans at World Health Organization transmitted real-time information about coronavirus to Trump administration - The Washington Post
In TrumpWorld, healthcare workers have more than enough personal protection equipment: ‘We’re beyond angered’: Fed up nurses file lawsuits, plan protest at White House over lack of coronavirus protections
VA Instructs Coronavirus-Exposed Staff to Continue Working, Places Those Who Don’t in AWOL Status - Government Executive; More than 1,600 employees at VA medical facilities have coronavirus | Federal News Network
Virus-Denialist-in-Chief: Trump Claims 'You May Not Even Have Corona Coming Back' as Fauci Says 'I Am Convinced' It Will
Trump approved of Georgia’s plan to reopen businesses before bashing it - MarketWatch
EPA guts rule credited with cleaning up toxic air from coal and oil power plants-MarketWatch Under Trump the EPA is no longer the Environmental Protection Agency but the polluters protection agency. In TrumpWorld, global warming does not exist and climate science is Fake News.
++
Doctor Don- "What do you have to lose":
Citing a 'primary outcome' of death, researchers cut chloroquine study short over safety concerns
Dr. Rick Bright was leading the U.S. effort to develop a vaccine for COVID-19. Dr. Bright claimed that he was ousted from that position after he expressed concerns about the malaria drug, hydroxychloroquine, that Doctor Don and Trump TV were promoting for COVID-19. Hydroxychloroquine: Rick Bright says he was demoted after objections to drug Trump praised - Vox;
Coronavirus Vaccine Doctor Says He Was Fired Over Doubts on Hydroxychloroquine
HHS ousts vaccine expert who pushed back on COVID-19 treatment - CBS News
The real evidence supporting the recommendation made by Doctor Don, whose M.D. is in B.S, is currently lacking, but who cares about facts in TrumpWorld. Facts just keep one what accepting Donald's reality creations.
When asked about Bright's removal, Donald claimed that he did not know the person in charge of coordinating the U.S. vaccine response to COVID-19.
Later, a CNN lady reporter, Kaitlan Collins, was in the process of asking Donald a question about the firing of Dr. Bright when he cut her off, looked to his left in disgust as if to say why do I, Donald the Great, God's Gift to Women and an Extremely Stable Genius, have to answer questions from women reporters. CNN Kaitlan Collins Was Heroic at Trump Coronavirus Briefing Donald then asserted that CNN was Fake News and he was not going to answer the question.
Vanity Fair published Trump Administration emails that showed political appointees pressuring government health officials to make this malaria drug available to the public without a doctor's supervision. Just reckless. Coronavirus treatment: Leaked emails reveal secret White House chloroquine plan; “Really Want to Flood NY and NJ”: Internal Documents Reveal Team Trump’s Chloroquine Master Plan | Vanity Fair
Maybe some evidence will turn up supporting Doctor Don's medical opinion, or maybe the use of his "miracle" drug will just kill some people with no discernible benefits compared to alternative treatments.
Study finds no benefit, higher death rate in patients taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 This was a small study conducted by the VA.
Sean Hannity had a predictable response to the VA study. Sean Hannity slams Veterans Affairs study showing hydroxychloroquine is ineffective and potentially dangerous | Media Matters for America
U.S. Virus Treatment Guidelines Reject Trump-Backed Drug Combo ("The NIH panel, made up of 50 doctors, pharmacy experts and government researchers and officials, specifically recommended against the use of the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine . . .The malaria pill can cause heart issues") The malaria drug has been touted by the television personalities at Fox "News" and Doctor Don.
'Medication I can't live without': Lupus patients are struggling to get hydroxychloroquine diverted for COVID-19 This is Donald's fault.
++
Doofus Don In Full Bloom:
It is hard to believe that medical doctors have not gotten on board with Doctor Don's many suggestions for treating COVID-19.
Sean Hannity must be filled with rage when doctors warned against ingesting household cleaners as a treatment. Trump suggests 'injection' of disinfectant to beat coronavirus and 'clean' the lungs;
Fact check: Trump dangerously suggests sunlight and ingesting disinfectants could help cure coronavirus
The White House Spins Trump's Disinfectant Remarks - FactCheck.org
Donald was not being sarcastic. He was just being Doofus Don, the guy who proved that he was the greatest businessman in history by bankrupting six businesses and losing almost a billion dollars when his mind was in far better shape than now. Trump Insists He Lost $1 Billion on Purpose | Vanity Fair
++
Donald's Jihad Against Fact Based Science-The Case of Dr. Nancy Messonnier:
Trump also wanted to fire Dr. Nancy Messonnier, who runs the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, for warning on 2/25/20 that this virus was likely to spread in the U.S. C.D.C. Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the U.S.-The New York Times (2/25/20 article) This is just another aspect of the GOP's Jihad Against Science. Trump threatened to fire CDC's chief of respiratory diseases in February: report | TheHill
Donald was angry that Dr. Messonnier's science based statement, which proved soon to be accurate, caused a dip in the stock market. Messonnier's science based warnings was inconsistent with the reality creation that Donald was peddling at the time:
Another example is having scientists try to walk back statements that they admit to making which are true but contradict a Trump reality creation. CDC director RedField tries to walk back remarks on coronavirus made in a WP Interview
Redfield admitted that he was correctly quoted by the WP, but Donald insisted that the article was Fake News and Redfield had been misquoted.
The accurate quote found in the WP article was as follows: "There's a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through. We're going to have the flue epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time". Publishing that quote, which Redfield admitted was accurate, is Fake News in Trump's America.
Under Trump, coronavirus scientists can speak — as long as they mostly toe the line - The Washington Post
++++
Doctor Don- "What do you have to lose":
Citing a 'primary outcome' of death, researchers cut chloroquine study short over safety concerns
Dr. Rick Bright was leading the U.S. effort to develop a vaccine for COVID-19. Dr. Bright claimed that he was ousted from that position after he expressed concerns about the malaria drug, hydroxychloroquine, that Doctor Don and Trump TV were promoting for COVID-19. Hydroxychloroquine: Rick Bright says he was demoted after objections to drug Trump praised - Vox;
Coronavirus Vaccine Doctor Says He Was Fired Over Doubts on Hydroxychloroquine
HHS ousts vaccine expert who pushed back on COVID-19 treatment - CBS News
When asked about Bright's removal, Donald claimed that he did not know the person in charge of coordinating the U.S. vaccine response to COVID-19.
Later, a CNN lady reporter, Kaitlan Collins, was in the process of asking Donald a question about the firing of Dr. Bright when he cut her off, looked to his left in disgust as if to say why do I, Donald the Great, God's Gift to Women and an Extremely Stable Genius, have to answer questions from women reporters. CNN Kaitlan Collins Was Heroic at Trump Coronavirus Briefing Donald then asserted that CNN was Fake News and he was not going to answer the question.
Vanity Fair published Trump Administration emails that showed political appointees pressuring government health officials to make this malaria drug available to the public without a doctor's supervision. Just reckless. Coronavirus treatment: Leaked emails reveal secret White House chloroquine plan; “Really Want to Flood NY and NJ”: Internal Documents Reveal Team Trump’s Chloroquine Master Plan | Vanity Fair
Maybe some evidence will turn up supporting Doctor Don's medical opinion, or maybe the use of his "miracle" drug will just kill some people with no discernible benefits compared to alternative treatments.
Study finds no benefit, higher death rate in patients taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 This was a small study conducted by the VA.
Sean Hannity had a predictable response to the VA study. Sean Hannity slams Veterans Affairs study showing hydroxychloroquine is ineffective and potentially dangerous | Media Matters for America
U.S. Virus Treatment Guidelines Reject Trump-Backed Drug Combo ("The NIH panel, made up of 50 doctors, pharmacy experts and government researchers and officials, specifically recommended against the use of the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine . . .The malaria pill can cause heart issues") The malaria drug has been touted by the television personalities at Fox "News" and Doctor Don.
'Medication I can't live without': Lupus patients are struggling to get hydroxychloroquine diverted for COVID-19 This is Donald's fault.
++
Doofus Don In Full Bloom:
It is hard to believe that medical doctors have not gotten on board with Doctor Don's many suggestions for treating COVID-19.
Sean Hannity must be filled with rage when doctors warned against ingesting household cleaners as a treatment. Trump suggests 'injection' of disinfectant to beat coronavirus and 'clean' the lungs;
Fact check: Trump dangerously suggests sunlight and ingesting disinfectants could help cure coronavirus
The White House Spins Trump's Disinfectant Remarks - FactCheck.org
Donald was not being sarcastic. He was just being Doofus Don, the guy who proved that he was the greatest businessman in history by bankrupting six businesses and losing almost a billion dollars when his mind was in far better shape than now. Trump Insists He Lost $1 Billion on Purpose | Vanity Fair
++
Donald's Jihad Against Fact Based Science-The Case of Dr. Nancy Messonnier:
Trump also wanted to fire Dr. Nancy Messonnier, who runs the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, for warning on 2/25/20 that this virus was likely to spread in the U.S. C.D.C. Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the U.S.-The New York Times (2/25/20 article) This is just another aspect of the GOP's Jihad Against Science. Trump threatened to fire CDC's chief of respiratory diseases in February: report | TheHill
Donald was angry that Dr. Messonnier's science based statement, which proved soon to be accurate, caused a dip in the stock market. Messonnier's science based warnings was inconsistent with the reality creation that Donald was peddling at the time:
 |
| 2/24/20 "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA" |
 |
| As if 4/24 U.S.A. Data |
Redfield admitted that he was correctly quoted by the WP, but Donald insisted that the article was Fake News and Redfield had been misquoted.
Under Trump, coronavirus scientists can speak — as long as they mostly toe the line - The Washington Post
++++
Covid-19 Updates:
Autopsies find first U.S. coronavirus death occurred in early February, weeks earlier than previously thought Covid-19 was already spreading in the U.S. in early February.
When 6 feet isn’t nearly enough to keep you safe from the coronavirus - MarketWatch In a study published in the journal of Emerging Infectious Diseases, one diner at a restaurant, who was infected and asymptomatic, spread COVID-19 to 9 other diners. Droplet spread was accomplished through air conditioner air flow. How Coronavirus Infected Some, but Not All, in a Restaurant - The New York Times I suspect that the rapid spread of infections about the Diamond Princess, occurring after passengers were quarantined to their quarters, was in part accomplished through air conditioner ventilation.
I thought this was a useful article, written by an emergency room physician treating COVID-19 infections, that provides practical advice on how to measure at home early lung problems associated with a COVID 19 infection. The Infection That’s Silently Killing Coronavirus Patients - The New York Times In its early stages, the infected person may not even realize that lung function is deteriorating. Normal oxygen saturation for most persons is 94 percent to 100 percent at sea level. It may take a week or so before an infected person has shortness of breath even though a chest X reveals pneumonia and the patient has low levels of oxygen (silent hypoxia). The doctor explains how that happens. Suffice it to say, you can purchase a pulse oximetry device that measures oxygen saturation levels. Amazon.com: pulse oximeter
WHO chief warns the worst of the coronavirus is still ahead
The FDA is giving emergency approvals to antibody tests that do not work. Covid-19 Antibody Test, Seen as Key to Reopening Country, Does Not Yet Deliver - The New York Times; FDA did not review many coronavirus antibody tests flooding the market - The Washington Post
COVID 19 at Meat packing plants: USA Today Investigation
More than 1,800 inmates at Marion Correctional positive coronavirus
90 workers test positive for COVID-19 at Tyson Foods Goodlettsville plant; company says its taking measures
The republican governor of Iowa, Kim Reynolds, has refused to close and clean an Iowa meat packing facility notwithstanding soaring Covid-19 infections and an observation by the county sheriff Tony Thompson that many employees had no personal protective equipment. Waterloo Tyson TRANSCRIPT: 4/20/20
The republican Governor said that she was aware of a "suspected outbreak" at the plant. County Officials See COVID-19 Surge From Waterloo Meat Packing Plant; Governor Won't Close It | Iowa Public Radio; Coronavirus: Local officials blast Tyson Foods for keeping Iowa plant open Notwithstanding the republican Governor's refusal to shut the plant temporarily to protect worker and community health, Tyson elected to do so. Tyson packing plant in Waterloo shutting down indefinitely after dozens of workers come down with coronavirus | weareiowa.com That was the prudent thing to do until the plant can be cleaned, all workers tested and any uninfected workers returned to work with proper PPE.
The Federal Government Must Act on Supply Chains to Enable COVID-19 Testing in High Volumes (press release from the American Association for Clinical Chemistry)
Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say - The New York Times
WHO warning: No evidence antibody tests can show coronavirus immunity
In New York’s largest hospital system, 88 percent of coronavirus patients on ventilators didn’t make it
++
Trump's Reality Creation on the Swine Flu Pandemic:
The Fake News President has a new reality creation:
The Swine Flu pandemic resulted, not in in 17K U.S. deaths as falsely claimed by Lying Don, but 12,469.
The Swine Flu was a new strain of flu virus that first appeared in the spring of 2009. 2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC
Few young people had an existing immunity, whereas about 1/3rd of persons over 60 had antibodies against this virus.
A vaccine was quickly developed but was not available in large quantities until November 2009 after a peak in infections.
The CDC summarized the excellent response to this pandemic in this publication. CDC Novel H1N1 Flu | The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: Summary Highlights, April 2009-April 2010 Donald does not want anyone to actually read that kind of publication.
Only in TrumpWorld could a democrat President be blamed for a really fast vaccine development and the understandable issues in producing mass quantities of the vaccine so quickly after the initial infection was discovered (April 2009) and a vaccine developed.
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Fox "News" and the Covid-19 Pandemic:
A Beloved Bar Owner, Joe Joyce, Was Skeptical About the Virus. Then He Took a Cruise. - The New York Times Mr. Joyce unfortunately watched Fox "News" and Sean Hannity. He believed what the was being told by Hannity that the public was being scared "unnecessarily". He went on a cruise in early March and died of Covid-19. How Fox’s Sean Hannity has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic in America | Media Matters for America
Sean Hannity opened his Fox "News" program on 2/27/20 with the following comments:
"Tonight, I can report the sky is absolutely falling. We're all doomed. The end is near. The apocalypse is imminent and you're going to all die, all of you in the next 48 hours and it's all President Trump's fault.
Or at least that’s what the media mob and the Democratic extreme radical socialist party would like you to think. They’re now sadly politicizing and actually weaponizing an infectious disease, in what is basically just the latest effort to bludgeon President Trump."
On 2/26/20, Hannity ranted that Senator Schumer and other Democrats were “trying to use the coronavirus to bludgeon President Trump, not telling the truth as usual, shameless politicizing of health and the well-being of Americans.”
On March 9, Hannity made this statement: "This scaring the living hell out of people -- I see it, again, as like, let's bludgeon Trump with this new hoax."
Hannity's hyperbolic harangues pass for intelligent commentary in Trump's America when it is just bombast from someone who knows how to make a buck for himself catering to the Trumpsters.
Hannity's hyperbolic harangues pass for intelligent commentary in Trump's America when it is just bombast from someone who knows how to make a buck for himself catering to the Trumpsters.
In the spiel advanced by Hannity, reporting facts about COVID-19 were simply part of an conspiracy by the liberal "media mob" and the "Democratic extreme socialist party" to hurt Trump's reelection chances and consequently could be dismissed as an overblown, malicious political hit job. That was the message that he was sending to his viewers.
A Pew Research survey last month found that “roughly eight-in-ten (79%) of those whose main source is Fox News say the media slightly or greatly exaggerated the risk of the pandemic, with only 15% saying they got the risks about right.” Cable TV and Coronavirus: How Americans perceive the outbreak and view media coverage differ by main news source | Pew Research Center
New University of Chicago study finds that Hannity viewership correlates with more COVID-19 cases and fatalities | Media Matters for America
New University of Chicago study finds that Hannity viewership correlates with more COVID-19 cases and fatalities | Media Matters for America
Fox co-host attacks Michigan governor for criticizing swastikas at social distancing protest, claims they were being displayed ironically | Media Matters for America
Six different polls show how Fox’s coronavirus coverage endangered its viewers | Media Matters for America
Fox "News" spent more airtime covering a small protest of a state COVID-19 related stay-at-home order than it devoted to the 2017 Women's March. Women's marches live updates: Millions march in L.A. and around the world following Trump's inauguration - Los Angeles Times; Fox News downplays Women's March on Washington - Los Angeles Times But that is to be expected. Bombshell (2019) - IMDb
Fox News’ aggressive promotion of protests against social distancing- Media Matters for America
Promotion, praise, and a ton of coverage: How Fox News embraced protests against coronavirus safety measures | Media Matters for America
Six different polls show how Fox’s coronavirus coverage endangered its viewers | Media Matters for America
Fox "News" spent more airtime covering a small protest of a state COVID-19 related stay-at-home order than it devoted to the 2017 Women's March. Women's marches live updates: Millions march in L.A. and around the world following Trump's inauguration - Los Angeles Times; Fox News downplays Women's March on Washington - Los Angeles Times But that is to be expected. Bombshell (2019) - IMDb
Fox News’ aggressive promotion of protests against social distancing- Media Matters for America
Promotion, praise, and a ton of coverage: How Fox News embraced protests against coronavirus safety measures | Media Matters for America
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Trump tweets order to 'destroy' Iranian boats
Yes, in Trump's America, Donald is without question an honest, Extremely Stable Genius.
+++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted:
1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Bought 50 BMOPRS at C$12.67 and 50 at C$10.59 (C$1 IB Commission-Both Trades):
Quote: BMO-PS.TO
Closing Price 4/24/20 = BMO-PS.TO C$14.02 +C0.11 +0.79%
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 BMOPRS at C$17,85 (10/16/19 Post)
Average Total Cost Per Share (150) = C$13.72
Issuer: Bank of Montreal
Security: Reset Equity Preferred Stock
Dividends: Quarterly and non-cumulative
Current Coupon: 3.852% until 5/24/24
Resets: Every 5 years at a 2.33% spread to the five year Canadian government bond
BMO's preferred stocks are currently rated Baa3/BBB. Credit Ratings
Current Yield at C$13.72 = 7.02%
The prospectus can be accessed here.
2. U.S. Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Added 5 AGRD at $22.27; 5 at $16.74; 5 at $14.21; 5 at $10.25; 5 at $16.5; 5 at $11.6:
Quote Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. 6.5% Senior Notes Due 2042 Overview
Closing Price 4/24/20: ARGD $24.84 -$0.06 -0.24%
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a sub-category of Exchange Traded Bonds
Schwab Account:
I owned 100 shares in the Schwab account before the pandemic panic sent exchange trade bonds into a tailspin. I now own 130 AGRD shares in that account.
I started a small ball purchase program in my Fidelity Account, but only managed to buy 5 shares at before the price went up.
Fidelity Account: 5 at $11.6 with a Current Yield at 14%
Quote: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. 6.5% Senior Notes Due 2042 (ARGD)(this exchange traded bond formerly traded under the AGIIL symbol)
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds; subcategory of EXCHANGE TRADED BONDS
This brings me up to 1 shares in my Schwab taxable account. Item # 3.A. Bought 70 ARGD at $24.93 (12/26/18 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 30 ARGD at $25.33-Used Commission Free Trade (7/25/18 Post)
Average Cost Per Share (Schwab Account) = $ 23.28
Yield at $23.28 = 6.98%
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain (Schwab account): 30 shares with a $25.33 cost basis bought in July 2018. That lot will now be sold whenever I have any profit.
The last quarterly interest payments was received on 3/15/20 and was paid on 100 shares:
This senior unsecured bond can be called now at anytime.
Security Description: Final Prospectus Supplement
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.5% paid on the $25 par value
Interest: Quarterly
Last Ex Interest Date: 2/27/20
Optional Redemption: At $25 plus accrued interest at issuer's option
Guarantor: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. (ARGO)
Senior Unsecured Debt
ARGO Analyst Estimates
ARGO SEC Filings
Maturity: Unless redeemed early at issuer's option, the bond matures on 9/15/42;
Interest Rate Risk: Asymmetric in favor of issuer
Bond Rating: According to Quantumonline, the bond has a BBB- rating from S & P.
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire interest payment with no accrued interest paid to the bond seller)
Realized ARGD Gains to Date: $385.95
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3 Sold 50 AGRD at $25.87 (9/25/19 Post)
Previous Transactions (prior symbol was AGIIL): Item # 4 Sold 100 AGIIL (9/25/17 Post)(profit snapshots = $30.09)-South Gent's Comment Blog # 8: Bought 50 AGIIL at $24.98 (bought back 50 shares sold at $26.69 in May 2016) and Item # 5. Bought 50 AGIIL at $24.6 in IB Account-Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 1/22/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Quote: Entergy Mississippi LLC 4.9% First Mortgage Bonds Overview
Closing Price 4/24/20: EMP $25.49 -$0.06 -0.23%
5 Year Chart as of 3/19:
Credit Ratings:
Security: Prospectus
Category Exchange Traded Baby Bonds a subcategory of Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
First Mortgage Bond (attaches to substantially all assets)
Par Value: $25
Maturity: 10/1/2066 unless issuer calls early
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value + accrued and unpaid interest on or after 10/1/2021.
Trades Flat
If long term interest rates are near current levels then, I would reasonably anticipate that the issuer will redeem at par and refinance as it has done in the past with earlier issued FM bonds.
Comparison to Entergy Mississippi $1K Par value bonds:
I own 4 Entergy Mississippi 3.1% First Mortgage bonds maturing on 7/1/23 and 1 Entergy Mississippi 3.25% FM maturing on 12/1/27.
The first mortgage bonds may have several series with a limit on the total amount.
For Entergy subsidiaries, there will be both exchange traded first mortgage baby bonds ($25 par value) and $1K par value first mortgage bonds traded in the bond market.
I prefer owning the ones traded in the bond market for 2 reasons-most of the time.
First, I can substantially reduce interest rate risk by picking those with relatively short maturities, whereas the exchange traded versions frequently have maturity dates in the distant future. EMP for example will mature on 10/1/2066 unless the issuer exercises it optional redemption right at par value. That right can be exercised for EMP on or after 10/1/2021.
Second, the optional redemption at par value creates asymmetric interest rate risk in favor of the issuer compared to a $1K par value bond that requires a make whole payment. I would not be surprised to see Entergy Mississippi redeem EMP at par value on 10/1/2021 while the $1K FM bond maturing in 2023 will keep on trucking, pumping out interest payments at the 3.1% coupon rate.
The baby bonds, when they were being priced well below par value and have higher coupons, are better options near term when the likelihood of an early redemption within a few years is possible. The reason is obvious. A buy of EMP at $21 and a redemption at $25 on 10/1/21 would generate a $4 per share profit or a 19% return on the investment plus the coupon.
The problem is that the issuer will be happy to let you keep EMP until 2066 when interest rates are rising and the bond price is falling, and the company is unable to refinance at a lower coupon rate.The alternatives for the owner then are (1) sell at a loss or (2) lose the opportunity to reinvest the funds invested in a higher yielding similarly rated bond.
2. Small Ball:
A. Started BUD-Bought 2 at $43.1; 1 at $38.9; 1 at $36.68; 1 at $34.69; 1 at $33.8 and Sold 2 at $47.95:
Quote: BUD | Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. ADR Overview
Closing Price 4/24: BUD $41.91 -$0.02 -0.05%
BUD | Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. ADR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Purchases:
Sold 2 at $47.95 (highest cost lot):
Profit Snapshot: +$9.55
Yes, I know that this is ridiculous but I am playing small ball rules. The pop in BUD shares required a sell of the highest cost lot using that trading system. The sell reduced my average cost per share from $38.4 to $36.02.
For several years now, I have avoided the common stock but have actively traded BUD senior unsecured bonds.
I view BUD as a floundering, beached whale. 2020 will be a tough year due to the coronavirus outbreak and related recessionary conditions.
Average Cost Per Share: $36.02
Dividend: Semi-annually
The dividend history trend is a major negative, though understandable given the debt load, earnings growth and problems relating to the current pandemic.
The dividend was slashed effective for the second semi-annual payment in 2018. BUD Dividend Yield, History & Payout Ratio (Anheuser Busch Inbev)
The second half semi-annual was $.661, paid in December 2019, down from $.9131 in December 2018 and $1.8534 in December 2017.
The dividend was slashed again effective for first semi-annual payment this year. Anheuser-Busch InBev Cuts Its Dividend to Preserve Cash
Sourced: SEC Filing
Ex Dividend Date: 6/9/20
Current Position: 4 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next purchase has to be below $33.8.
Form 20-F:
List of brands by countries starts at page 34.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): BUD is based in Belgium but reports in USDs.
BUD's "underlying" E.P.S. was reported at $.87, down from $1.17 in the 2018 4th quarter. Volume in the 4th quarter rose 1.6% (win non beer volume up 8%). Volumes in Asia declined 5.2% due to slowing growth the coronavirus outbreak.
Sourced: SEC Filed Press Release
Broker Reports (12/31/19): Available to Schwab customers
Argus (3/10/20); Buy with a $60 price target
Morningstar (2/27/20): 5 stars with a FV of $108 per ADR.
B. Started Small Ball "Buying Program" In PFE- Bought 1 at $31.08; 1 at $30.22; 1 at $29.45; 2 at $28.4:
Current Position: 6 Shares
Closing Price 4/24/20: PFE $37.38 +$0.69 +1.88%
Average Cost Per Share: $29.43
I view this stock as a bond substitute. When so classified, I am simply looking for any return in excess of the dividend payments.
Quote: Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
PFE | Pfizer Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
PFE SEC Filings
2019 PFE Annual Report and 2019 Financial Report (filed as a separate document)
Patent Expirations are a major problem IMO:
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 4.A. Sold Remaining 33 PFE shares at $33.44 (8/13/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $90.67); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 PFE at $34.03 (7/13/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $143.42); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 PFE at $34.65 (3/13/17 Post)(profit snapshot =$235.86); Item # 1 Sold: 100 PFE at $31.68 (5/17/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $282.12) Buy discussions are linked in those posts.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.38 per share, raised from $.36 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.
Pfizer Inc. - Stock Information - Dividend & Split History
Last Ex Dividend Date: 1/30/20
Dividend Yield at $29.43 Average Cost = 5.16%
Last Earnings Report (12/31/19):
The footnotes referenced in the preceding snapshot start at page 27 and end at page 33. I do not view this kind of financial reporting as desirable.
Product Revenues:
SEC Filed Press Release
Other Recent News:
Pfizer Inc. - Mylan and Pfizer Provide Update Regarding Proposed Combination of Mylan and Upjohn (now expected to close in the 2020 second half); Mylan and Upjohn, a Division of Pfizer, to Combine, Creating a New Champion for Global Health Uniquely Positioned to Fulfill the World’s Need for Medicine (7/22/19)
Pfizer Announces Closing of Joint Venture With GlaxoSmithKline to Create a Premier Global Consumer Healthcare Company (8/1/2019)
C. Added 5 PBCT at $12; 5 at $10.72; 5 at $9.72 :
Quote: People's United Financial Inc (PBCT)
Closing Price 4/24/20: PBCT $11.88 +$0.69 +6.21%
The market reacted favorably to the first quarter earnings report released after the close on 4/23.
PBCT Consensus Analyst E.P.S. Estimates
PBCT SEC Filings
PBCT 2019 Annual Report
Dividend: Quarterly at $.1775 ($.71 annually)
Stock Information | Dividend History | People's United Bank
Last Ex Dividend: 1/30
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
5 year Financial Data:
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.C. Added 5 PBCT at $14.52; 5 at $13.94 and 5 at $12.65 (3/14/20 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.A. Eliminated PBCT-Sold 101+ at $17.57 (5/22/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.1775 per share ($.71 annually)
Dividend History | People's United Bank
Earnings Report (12/31/19): People's United Financial Reports Fourth Quarter Net Income of $137.5 Million, or $0.31 per Common Share
Net interest margin increased two basis points from 3Q19 to 3.14%
Efficiency Ratio: 55.8%
Net loan charge-off ratio of 0.06% in 4Q19
Return on Tangible Equity: 13.4%
Return on Average Assets: 1.01%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $10.12
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/3/20): This report was released after my purchases.
The provision for credit losses was increased by $22.9 for anticipated impacts of COVID-19 caused loan losses.
Current position: 60+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $14.02
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 5.06%
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
In a report dated 4/15/20, S & P assigned a 3 star rating with a $13 PT.
On 4/9, Jeffries cuts its PT to $12 from $17.
D. Started Small Ball "Buying Program" in VYM-Bought 1 at $66.72; 1 at $65.27; 1 at $63.8; 1 at $62.7; 1 at $60.78:
Quote: VYM | Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF Overview
Closing Price 4/24/20: VYM $76.59 +$0.98 +1.30%
Sponsor's Website: VYM - Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF
Expense Ratio: .06%
Holdings: 395 as of 3/31/20
Dividends: Quarterly and Variable
Top Holdings:
E. Started Small Ball "Buying Program in CUBE-Bought 10 at $22; 2 at $21.55; 1 at $19.73:
Quote: CubeSmart
Closing Price 4/24/20: CUBE $25.28 -$0.22 -0.86%
CubeSmart is a REIT that owns and operates self-storage properties.
Corporate Profile
SEC Filings
March 2020 Investor Presentation (SEC Filed)
2019 CUBE Annual Report (CUBE "owned 523 self-storage properties located in 24 states and in the District of Columbia containing an aggregate of approximately 36.6 million rentable square feet. As of December 31, 2019, approximately 89.5% of the rentable square footage at our owned stores was leased to approximately 306,000 customers . . . In addition, as of December 31, 2019, we managed 649 stores for third parties (including 91 stores containing an aggregate of approximately 6.3 million net rentable square feet as part of four separate unconsolidated real estate ventures) bringing the total number of stores we owned and/or managed to 1,172." Some of the properties managed by CUBE are owned by Jernigan Capital (JCAP) that I discussed in my last post.
Five Year Financials:
Two Year FFO Calculation:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.33 per share ($1.32 annually)
Dividends
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/31/20 (paid 4/15)
Average Cost Per Share: $21.6 (13 shares)
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 6.11%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E. 12/3/19):
2020 Guidance:
SEC Filed Press Release
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
I discuss the purchase of 2 Cubesmart L.P. SU notes in Item # 5.A. below.
F. Added 5 WPC at $43:
Quote: W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC)
Closing Price 4/24/20: WPC $58.72 +$0.67 +1.15%
WPC SEC Filings
Last Common Stock Purchase: South Gent's Comment Blog # 7: Bought 30 WPC at $59.45 (12/10/16 comment) I still own those shares.
Current Position: 35 shares
Dividends: Quarterly at $1.04 per share ($4.16 annually)
W. P. Carey Inc. Increases Quarterly Dividend to $1.04 per Share
Last Ex Dividend: 3/30/20
Yield at $43 = 9.67%
2019 Annual Report WPC is a "diversified net lease REIT with a portfolio of operationally-critical, commercial real estate that includes 1,214 net lease properties covering approximately 140.0 million square feet and 21 operating properties as of December 31, 2019. We invest in high-quality single tenant industrial, warehouse, office, retail, and self-storage properties subject to long-term net leases with built-in rent escalators."
5 Year Financials:
3 Year FFO/AFFO Calculations:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
"As of December 31, 2019, the Company's net lease portfolio consisted of 1,214 properties, comprising 140.0 million square feet leased to 345 tenants, with a weighted-average lease term of 10.7 years and an occupancy rate of 98.8%. In addition, the Company owned 19 self-storage and two hotel operating properties, totaling approximately 1.6 million square feet."
"AFFO of $222.0 million, or $1.28 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter and $856.5 million, or $5.00 per diluted share, for 2019."
"2020 full year AFFO guidance range of $4.86 to $5.01 per diluted share announced, including Real Estate AFFO of between $4.74 and $4.89 per diluted share"
"Revenues, including reimbursable costs, for the 2019 fourth quarter totaled $311.2 million, up 13.8% from $273.4 million for the 2018 fourth quarter."
W. P. Carey Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results
I also own several WPC senior unsecured bonds:
FINRA Bond Detail WPC 4.25% SU Maturing on 10/1/26
FINRA Bond Detail WPC 4% SU Maturing on 2/1/25
Item # 3.B. Bought 2 WPC 4.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 10/1/26 at a TC of 99.682 (3/3/19 Post)
Item # 4.A. Bought 2 WPC 4% SU Bonds at 98.477 (4/19/18 Post)
I sold the WPC 2024 bonds: Item # 4.D. Sold 2 WPC 4.6% SU Bonds Maturing on 4/1/24 at 105.382 (10/2/2017 Post)
H. Restarted ADX-Bought 10 at $11.9:
Quote: Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. (ADX)
Closing Price 4/24/20: ADX $13.88 +$0.16 +1.17%
Sponsor's Website: Adams Funds
SEC Filed 2019 Annual Report (as of 12/31/19, value of assets at $1.954+B vs. cost at $1.233+B) The report also shows the principal changes in holdings for the six month period ending 12/31.
Leverage: None
Top Ten Holdings as of 12/31/19:
Last Elimination: Item # 3.B. Sold 100 at $15.24 (5/22/19 Post)- Item # 4 Bought 100 ADX at $14.12-Used Commission Free Trade (3/3/19 Post)(contains snapshots of largest realized gains and some links to prior discussions)
I have been buying and selling this stock CEF starting in 1984.
The $15.24 sell price is not adjusted for subsequent dividend payments that totaled $1.42 per share including a 2019 year end $1.18 capital gain distribution. Adjusted for those dividend payment, the sell price was $13.82)
Data Date of 4/3/20 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $14.15
Closing Market Price: $11.92
Discount: -15.76%
Sourced: ADX Adams Diversified Equity CEF Connect
ADX Realized Gains 2014 to Date: $3,172.46
Since I sold a 467+ share position in 2015, I had been buying and selling 100 share lots until this 10 lot buy.
The total return for those 100 shares lots has been generated mostly from capital gain distributions paid in December that totaled $4.48 per share (2015-2018) My realized profit numbers do not include dividends and capital gains distributions but only the profit from selling the shares.
Trump tweets order to 'destroy' Iranian boats
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All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted:
1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Bought 50 BMOPRS at C$12.67 and 50 at C$10.59 (C$1 IB Commission-Both Trades):
Closing Price 4/24/20 = BMO-PS.TO C$14.02 +C0.11 +0.79%
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 BMOPRS at C$17,85 (10/16/19 Post)
Average Total Cost Per Share (150) = C$13.72
Issuer: Bank of Montreal
Security: Reset Equity Preferred Stock
Dividends: Quarterly and non-cumulative
Current Coupon: 3.852% until 5/24/24
Resets: Every 5 years at a 2.33% spread to the five year Canadian government bond
BMO's preferred stocks are currently rated Baa3/BBB. Credit Ratings
Current Yield at C$13.72 = 7.02%
The prospectus can be accessed here.
2. U.S. Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Added 5 AGRD at $22.27; 5 at $16.74; 5 at $14.21; 5 at $10.25; 5 at $16.5; 5 at $11.6:
Quote Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. 6.5% Senior Notes Due 2042 Overview
Closing Price 4/24/20: ARGD $24.84 -$0.06 -0.24%
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a sub-category of Exchange Traded Bonds
Schwab Account:
I started a small ball purchase program in my Fidelity Account, but only managed to buy 5 shares at before the price went up.
Fidelity Account: 5 at $11.6 with a Current Yield at 14%
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds; subcategory of EXCHANGE TRADED BONDS
This brings me up to 1 shares in my Schwab taxable account. Item # 3.A. Bought 70 ARGD at $24.93 (12/26/18 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 30 ARGD at $25.33-Used Commission Free Trade (7/25/18 Post)
Average Cost Per Share (Schwab Account) = $ 23.28
Yield at $23.28 = 6.98%
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain (Schwab account): 30 shares with a $25.33 cost basis bought in July 2018. That lot will now be sold whenever I have any profit.
The last quarterly interest payments was received on 3/15/20 and was paid on 100 shares:
Security Description: Final Prospectus Supplement
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.5% paid on the $25 par value
Interest: Quarterly
Last Ex Interest Date: 2/27/20
Optional Redemption: At $25 plus accrued interest at issuer's option
Guarantor: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. (ARGO)
Senior Unsecured Debt
ARGO Analyst Estimates
ARGO SEC Filings
Maturity: Unless redeemed early at issuer's option, the bond matures on 9/15/42;
Interest Rate Risk: Asymmetric in favor of issuer
Bond Rating: According to Quantumonline, the bond has a BBB- rating from S & P.
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire interest payment with no accrued interest paid to the bond seller)
Realized ARGD Gains to Date: $385.95
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3 Sold 50 AGRD at $25.87 (9/25/19 Post)
Previous Transactions (prior symbol was AGIIL): Item # 4 Sold 100 AGIIL (9/25/17 Post)(profit snapshots = $30.09)-South Gent's Comment Blog # 8: Bought 50 AGIIL at $24.98 (bought back 50 shares sold at $26.69 in May 2016) and Item # 5. Bought 50 AGIIL at $24.6 in IB Account-Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 1/22/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
During that 2013 price plunge, I did buy some shares. Item # 6 Bought 50 AGIIL at $20.2 (December 2013 Post) I sold that lot at $24.21: Item # 2 Sold 50 AGIIL at $24.21-Roth IRA (6/28/14 Post)(profit snapshot=$186.48 plus two quarterly interest payments totaling $40.62; total return 22.33% in about 6 months)
Another 50 share lot was bought in October 2013: Item # 3 Bought: 50 AGIIL at $21.11 (10/13/2013 Post). I sold the lot bought in October 2013 at $24.48: Item # 2 Sold: 50 AGIIL at $24.48 (6/7/14 Post)(profit snapshot=$152.58; total return of $193.2 or 18.17% in about 7 months).
B. Bought 10 EMP at $23.76; 5 at $21.07; 10 at $20.39:
B. Bought 10 EMP at $23.76; 5 at $21.07; 10 at $20.39:
Quote: Entergy Mississippi LLC 4.9% First Mortgage Bonds Overview
Closing Price 4/24/20: EMP $25.49 -$0.06 -0.23%
5 Year Chart as of 3/19:
Category Exchange Traded Baby Bonds a subcategory of Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
First Mortgage Bond (attaches to substantially all assets)
Par Value: $25
Maturity: 10/1/2066 unless issuer calls early
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value + accrued and unpaid interest on or after 10/1/2021.
Trades Flat
If long term interest rates are near current levels then, I would reasonably anticipate that the issuer will redeem at par and refinance as it has done in the past with earlier issued FM bonds.
Comparison to Entergy Mississippi $1K Par value bonds:
I own 4 Entergy Mississippi 3.1% First Mortgage bonds maturing on 7/1/23 and 1 Entergy Mississippi 3.25% FM maturing on 12/1/27.
For Entergy subsidiaries, there will be both exchange traded first mortgage baby bonds ($25 par value) and $1K par value first mortgage bonds traded in the bond market.
I prefer owning the ones traded in the bond market for 2 reasons-most of the time.
First, I can substantially reduce interest rate risk by picking those with relatively short maturities, whereas the exchange traded versions frequently have maturity dates in the distant future. EMP for example will mature on 10/1/2066 unless the issuer exercises it optional redemption right at par value. That right can be exercised for EMP on or after 10/1/2021.
Second, the optional redemption at par value creates asymmetric interest rate risk in favor of the issuer compared to a $1K par value bond that requires a make whole payment. I would not be surprised to see Entergy Mississippi redeem EMP at par value on 10/1/2021 while the $1K FM bond maturing in 2023 will keep on trucking, pumping out interest payments at the 3.1% coupon rate.
The baby bonds, when they were being priced well below par value and have higher coupons, are better options near term when the likelihood of an early redemption within a few years is possible. The reason is obvious. A buy of EMP at $21 and a redemption at $25 on 10/1/21 would generate a $4 per share profit or a 19% return on the investment plus the coupon.
The problem is that the issuer will be happy to let you keep EMP until 2066 when interest rates are rising and the bond price is falling, and the company is unable to refinance at a lower coupon rate.The alternatives for the owner then are (1) sell at a loss or (2) lose the opportunity to reinvest the funds invested in a higher yielding similarly rated bond.
2. Small Ball:
A. Started BUD-Bought 2 at $43.1; 1 at $38.9; 1 at $36.68; 1 at $34.69; 1 at $33.8 and Sold 2 at $47.95:
Quote: BUD | Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. ADR Overview
Closing Price 4/24: BUD $41.91 -$0.02 -0.05%
BUD | Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. ADR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Purchases:
Yes, I know that this is ridiculous but I am playing small ball rules. The pop in BUD shares required a sell of the highest cost lot using that trading system. The sell reduced my average cost per share from $38.4 to $36.02.
For several years now, I have avoided the common stock but have actively traded BUD senior unsecured bonds.
I view BUD as a floundering, beached whale. 2020 will be a tough year due to the coronavirus outbreak and related recessionary conditions.
Average Cost Per Share: $36.02
Dividend: Semi-annually
The dividend history trend is a major negative, though understandable given the debt load, earnings growth and problems relating to the current pandemic.
The dividend was slashed effective for the second semi-annual payment in 2018. BUD Dividend Yield, History & Payout Ratio (Anheuser Busch Inbev)
The second half semi-annual was $.661, paid in December 2019, down from $.9131 in December 2018 and $1.8534 in December 2017.
The dividend was slashed again effective for first semi-annual payment this year. Anheuser-Busch InBev Cuts Its Dividend to Preserve Cash
Ex Dividend Date: 6/9/20
Current Position: 4 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next purchase has to be below $33.8.
Form 20-F:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): BUD is based in Belgium but reports in USDs.
BUD's "underlying" E.P.S. was reported at $.87, down from $1.17 in the 2018 4th quarter. Volume in the 4th quarter rose 1.6% (win non beer volume up 8%). Volumes in Asia declined 5.2% due to slowing growth the coronavirus outbreak.
Broker Reports (12/31/19): Available to Schwab customers
Argus (3/10/20); Buy with a $60 price target
Morningstar (2/27/20): 5 stars with a FV of $108 per ADR.
B. Started Small Ball "Buying Program" In PFE- Bought 1 at $31.08; 1 at $30.22; 1 at $29.45; 2 at $28.4:
Current Position: 6 Shares
Closing Price 4/24/20: PFE $37.38 +$0.69 +1.88%
Average Cost Per Share: $29.43
I view this stock as a bond substitute. When so classified, I am simply looking for any return in excess of the dividend payments.
Quote: Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
PFE | Pfizer Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
PFE SEC Filings
2019 PFE Annual Report and 2019 Financial Report (filed as a separate document)
Patent Expirations are a major problem IMO:
 |
| Page 10, 10-K |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.38 per share, raised from $.36 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.
Pfizer Inc. - Stock Information - Dividend & Split History
Last Ex Dividend Date: 1/30/20
Dividend Yield at $29.43 Average Cost = 5.16%
Last Earnings Report (12/31/19):
Product Revenues:
Other Recent News:
Pfizer Inc. - Mylan and Pfizer Provide Update Regarding Proposed Combination of Mylan and Upjohn (now expected to close in the 2020 second half); Mylan and Upjohn, a Division of Pfizer, to Combine, Creating a New Champion for Global Health Uniquely Positioned to Fulfill the World’s Need for Medicine (7/22/19)
Pfizer Announces Closing of Joint Venture With GlaxoSmithKline to Create a Premier Global Consumer Healthcare Company (8/1/2019)
C. Added 5 PBCT at $12; 5 at $10.72; 5 at $9.72 :
Quote: People's United Financial Inc (PBCT)
Closing Price 4/24/20: PBCT $11.88 +$0.69 +6.21%
The market reacted favorably to the first quarter earnings report released after the close on 4/23.
PBCT Consensus Analyst E.P.S. Estimates
PBCT SEC Filings
PBCT 2019 Annual Report
Dividend: Quarterly at $.1775 ($.71 annually)
Stock Information | Dividend History | People's United Bank
Last Ex Dividend: 1/30
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
5 year Financial Data:
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.A. Eliminated PBCT-Sold 101+ at $17.57 (5/22/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.1775 per share ($.71 annually)
Dividend History | People's United Bank
Earnings Report (12/31/19): People's United Financial Reports Fourth Quarter Net Income of $137.5 Million, or $0.31 per Common Share
Net interest margin increased two basis points from 3Q19 to 3.14%
Efficiency Ratio: 55.8%
Net loan charge-off ratio of 0.06% in 4Q19
Return on Tangible Equity: 13.4%
Return on Average Assets: 1.01%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $10.12
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/3/20): This report was released after my purchases.
The provision for credit losses was increased by $22.9 for anticipated impacts of COVID-19 caused loan losses.
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $9.96
NPL Ratio: .54%
NPA Ratio: .59%
Charge Off Ratio: .1%
Current position: 60+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $14.02
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 5.06%
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
In a report dated 4/15/20, S & P assigned a 3 star rating with a $13 PT.
On 4/9, Jeffries cuts its PT to $12 from $17.
D. Started Small Ball "Buying Program" in VYM-Bought 1 at $66.72; 1 at $65.27; 1 at $63.8; 1 at $62.7; 1 at $60.78:
Quote: VYM | Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF Overview
Closing Price 4/24/20: VYM $76.59 +$0.98 +1.30%
Sponsor's Website: VYM - Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF
Expense Ratio: .06%
Holdings: 395 as of 3/31/20
Dividends: Quarterly and Variable
 |
| as of 3/31/20 |
Closing Price 4/24/20: CUBE $25.28 -$0.22 -0.86%
CubeSmart is a REIT that owns and operates self-storage properties.
Corporate Profile
SEC Filings
March 2020 Investor Presentation (SEC Filed)
2019 CUBE Annual Report (CUBE "owned 523 self-storage properties located in 24 states and in the District of Columbia containing an aggregate of approximately 36.6 million rentable square feet. As of December 31, 2019, approximately 89.5% of the rentable square footage at our owned stores was leased to approximately 306,000 customers . . . In addition, as of December 31, 2019, we managed 649 stores for third parties (including 91 stores containing an aggregate of approximately 6.3 million net rentable square feet as part of four separate unconsolidated real estate ventures) bringing the total number of stores we owned and/or managed to 1,172." Some of the properties managed by CUBE are owned by Jernigan Capital (JCAP) that I discussed in my last post.
Five Year Financials:
Dividends
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/31/20 (paid 4/15)
Average Cost Per Share: $21.6 (13 shares)
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 6.11%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E. 12/3/19):
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
I discuss the purchase of 2 Cubesmart L.P. SU notes in Item # 5.A. below.
F. Added 5 WPC at $43:
Quote: W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC)
Closing Price 4/24/20: WPC $58.72 +$0.67 +1.15%
WPC SEC Filings
Last Common Stock Purchase: South Gent's Comment Blog # 7: Bought 30 WPC at $59.45 (12/10/16 comment) I still own those shares.
Current Position: 35 shares
Dividends: Quarterly at $1.04 per share ($4.16 annually)
W. P. Carey Inc. Increases Quarterly Dividend to $1.04 per Share
Last Ex Dividend: 3/30/20
Yield at $43 = 9.67%
2019 Annual Report WPC is a "diversified net lease REIT with a portfolio of operationally-critical, commercial real estate that includes 1,214 net lease properties covering approximately 140.0 million square feet and 21 operating properties as of December 31, 2019. We invest in high-quality single tenant industrial, warehouse, office, retail, and self-storage properties subject to long-term net leases with built-in rent escalators."
5 Year Financials:
"As of December 31, 2019, the Company's net lease portfolio consisted of 1,214 properties, comprising 140.0 million square feet leased to 345 tenants, with a weighted-average lease term of 10.7 years and an occupancy rate of 98.8%. In addition, the Company owned 19 self-storage and two hotel operating properties, totaling approximately 1.6 million square feet."
"AFFO of $222.0 million, or $1.28 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter and $856.5 million, or $5.00 per diluted share, for 2019."
"2020 full year AFFO guidance range of $4.86 to $5.01 per diluted share announced, including Real Estate AFFO of between $4.74 and $4.89 per diluted share"
"Revenues, including reimbursable costs, for the 2019 fourth quarter totaled $311.2 million, up 13.8% from $273.4 million for the 2018 fourth quarter."
W. P. Carey Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results
I also own several WPC senior unsecured bonds:
FINRA Bond Detail WPC 4.25% SU Maturing on 10/1/26
FINRA Bond Detail WPC 4% SU Maturing on 2/1/25
Item # 3.B. Bought 2 WPC 4.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 10/1/26 at a TC of 99.682 (3/3/19 Post)
Item # 4.A. Bought 2 WPC 4% SU Bonds at 98.477 (4/19/18 Post)
I sold the WPC 2024 bonds: Item # 4.D. Sold 2 WPC 4.6% SU Bonds Maturing on 4/1/24 at 105.382 (10/2/2017 Post)
H. Restarted ADX-Bought 10 at $11.9:
Quote: Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. (ADX)
Closing Price 4/24/20: ADX $13.88 +$0.16 +1.17%
Sponsor's Website: Adams Funds
SEC Filed 2019 Annual Report (as of 12/31/19, value of assets at $1.954+B vs. cost at $1.233+B) The report also shows the principal changes in holdings for the six month period ending 12/31.
Leverage: None
Top Ten Holdings as of 12/31/19:
I have been buying and selling this stock CEF starting in 1984.
The $15.24 sell price is not adjusted for subsequent dividend payments that totaled $1.42 per share including a 2019 year end $1.18 capital gain distribution. Adjusted for those dividend payment, the sell price was $13.82)
Data Date of 4/3/20 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $14.15
Closing Market Price: $11.92
Discount: -15.76%
Sourced: ADX Adams Diversified Equity CEF Connect
ADX Realized Gains 2014 to Date: $3,172.46
Since I sold a 467+ share position in 2015, I had been buying and selling 100 share lots until this 10 lot buy.
The total return for those 100 shares lots has been generated mostly from capital gain distributions paid in December that totaled $4.48 per share (2015-2018) My realized profit numbers do not include dividends and capital gains distributions but only the profit from selling the shares.
3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
May 2020 Maturities:
SU = Senior Unsecured Bond ($1K par value per bond)
CD = Certificate of Deposit ($1K par value per CD)-FDIC Insured
MI = Monthly Interest Payments
SI = Semi-Annual Interest Payments
Treasury: U.S. Treasury Debt ($1K par value per bill, note or bond)
SI = Semi-Annual Interest Payments
Treasury: U.S. Treasury Debt ($1K par value per bill, note or bond)
IR: Investment Rate for Treasury Bills bought at auction commission free
Treasury: Secondary Market Purchases are always made at below par value with commission free trades.
2 Ingersol Rand 2.625% SU 5/1 (bought 11/2018)
2 Mondelez 3% SU 5/7 (bought 9/18 & 12/18)
2 Treasury 6 Mo Bills 1.573%IR 5/7 (bought at auction)
5 Treasury 3Mo Bills 1.557%IR 5/7 (bought at auction)
2 Treasury 6 Mo Bills 1.573%IR 5/7 (bought at auction)
5 Treasury 3Mo Bills 1.557%IR 5/7 (bought at auction)
2 Live Oak 2.45% CDs MI 5/8 (13 Month CDs)
1 Ryder 2.5% SU 5/11 (bought 6/18)
1 Wells Fargo 2.5% CD MI 5/11 (2 year CDs)
2 Wells Faro 2.45% CDs MI 5/11 (13 Month CDs)
4 Capital One 2.5% SU 5/12 (bought 3/19; 3/20)
6 Abbvie 2.5% SU 5/14 (bought 2/18; 2/19; 3/20)
10 Treasury 3 Mo Bill 1.582%IR 5/14 (bought at auction)
2 Treasury 6 Mo Bills 1.588% IR 5/14 (bought at auction)
*2 Ipalco Enterprises 3.45% SU 5/14
10 Treasury 3 Mo Bill 1.582%IR 5/14 (bought at auction)
2 Treasury 6 Mo Bills 1.588% IR 5/14 (bought at auction)
*2 Ipalco Enterprises 3.45% SU 5/14
6 Treasury 1.5% 5/15 (secondary market purchases)
** 4 Southern 2.75% SU 5/15
***8 Wisconsin Energy 2.45% SU 5/15
2 Sherwin Williams 2.25% SU 5/15 (bought 2/18)
** 4 Southern 2.75% SU 5/15
***8 Wisconsin Energy 2.45% SU 5/15
2 Sherwin Williams 2.25% SU 5/15 (bought 2/18)
1 Bridgewater 1.75% CD 5/15 (30 Month CD)
*****Plum Creek 4.7% SU 5/18
2 Treasury 6 Mo bill 1.572% IR 5/21 (bought at auction)
10 Treasury 3 Mo Bill 1.577% IR 5/21 (bought at auction
3 NYCB 2.45% CDs 5/22 (1 year CD)
3 First Long Island 1.65% CDs 5/22 (3 month CDs)
****2 J P Morgan 2.75% SU 5/23
*****Plum Creek 4.7% SU 5/18
2 Treasury 6 Mo bill 1.572% IR 5/21 (bought at auction)
10 Treasury 3 Mo Bill 1.577% IR 5/21 (bought at auction
3 NYCB 2.45% CDs 5/22 (1 year CD)
3 First Long Island 1.65% CDs 5/22 (3 month CDs)
****2 J P Morgan 2.75% SU 5/23
4 McDonalds 2.2% SU 5/26 (4 purchase dates)
2 Merchants BK 1.6% CDs 5/27 (3 month CDs)
10 Treasury 3 Mo Bill 1.536%IR 5/28 (bought at auction)
1 Goldman Sachs 2.75% SU 5/29 (bought 4/19)
2 Live Oak 2.4% CDs MI 5/29 (1 year CD)
2 BMO Harris 1.6% CDs 5/29 (3 Mo CDs)
2 Merchants BK 1.6% CDs 5/27 (3 month CDs)
10 Treasury 3 Mo Bill 1.536%IR 5/28 (bought at auction)
1 Goldman Sachs 2.75% SU 5/29 (bought 4/19)
2 Live Oak 2.4% CDs MI 5/29 (1 year CD)
2 BMO Harris 1.6% CDs 5/29 (3 Mo CDs)
2 Stifel Bank 2.7% CD MI 5/31 (2 year CD)
2 Treasury 2.5% 5/31 (secondary market purchases)
1 Treasury 1.5% 5/31 (secondary market)
*Early call, original maturity 7/15/20
** Early call, original maturity 6/15/20
*** Early call, original maturity 6/15/20
**** Early call, original maturity 6/23/20
***** Early call, original maturity 3/15/21 with $33.8 make whole payment per bond:
$110K
*Early call, original maturity 7/15/20
** Early call, original maturity 6/15/20
*** Early call, original maturity 6/15/20
**** Early call, original maturity 6/23/20
***** Early call, original maturity 3/15/21 with $33.8 make whole payment per bond:
4. Short Term Investment Grade Corporate Bonds as an Alternative to MM:
I purchased several different McDonalds senior unsecured bonds that were bought last month. Three of those bonds are discussed below. I have already sold one of them. I will keep the ones maturing on 7/15/20 and 12/9/20 until redeemed by the issuer.
A. Bought 1 McDonalds 3.35% SU Bond Maturing on 4/1/23-SOLD AT 106.34:
Purchased at 98.2/Total Cost at 98.3:
Profit Snapshot: +$79.4
Issuer: McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
MCD | McDonald's Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Bond Offering-March 2020: Prospectus ($750M 3.625% SU maturing in 2049)
SEC Filings
Credit Ratings:
YTM at Total Cost = 3.952%
Sold at 106.34
YTM at 106.34 = 1.079%
B. Bought 2 Eversource Energy 2.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 3/15/21:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
I now own 6 bonds. The last two bond purchase was made in February 2019.
Issuer: Eversource Energy (ES)-Utility
ES | Eversource Energy Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report (debt discussed starting at page 92)
Last Bond Offering (1/2020): $350M of 3.45% SU Bonds Maturing in 2050
A lot of the debt is non-recourse to ES and consists of first mortgage debt on its subsidiaries assets. Those bonds will generally have higher credit ratings than the holding company debt. I own several $1K par value first mortgage bonds issued by wholly owned subsidiaries of electric and gas holding companies.
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.155 (includes $1 per bond commission)
YTM at TC = 3.338%
Current Yield at 99.155 = 2.5213%
C. Bought 1 McDonalds 2.7% SU Bonds Maturing on 12/9/20:
Issuer McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
MCD | McDonald's Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings
Credit Ratings:
YTM at Total Cost: 3.92%
Current Yield at TC = 2.722%
Bought at 99.087
D. Bought 2 McDonald's 3.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 7/15/20:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.5
YTM at TC = 4.796%
5. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 CubeSmart L.P. 4% SU Bonds Maturing on 11/15/25:
Bought at Total Cost of 99.831 (includes $1 per bond commission)
YTM at TC = 4.033%
Current Yield at TC = 4.0068% (an example where the total return is almost entirely embedded in the current yield)
Issuer: Operating entity for CubeSmart (CUBE) who guarantees the notes.
Credit Ratings:
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
