Economy:
Jobless claims jump another 4.4 million — 26 million Americans have lost their jobs to the coronavirus - MarketWatch; DOL News Release 4/23/20
All of the jobs created after the Near Depression in 2008 have now been lost, at least temporarily.
Durable-goods orders plunge 14.4% in March as automakers, Boeing take big hit - MarketWatch
Chicago Fed economic index plunges, latest measure to reflect crippling effect of coronavirus on U.S. growth - MarketWatch
As you can see from this chart, the plunge in this index is consistent with an ongoing recession:
Chicago Fed National Activity Index-St. Louis Fed
Chicago Federal Reserve index hints at US recession starting in March - Business Insider It is more than a "hint".
Jobless claims jump another 4.4 million — 26 million Americans have lost their jobs to the coronavirus - MarketWatch; DOL News Release 4/23/20
All of the jobs created after the Near Depression in 2008 have now been lost, at least temporarily.
Durable-goods orders plunge 14.4% in March as automakers, Boeing take big hit - MarketWatch
Chicago Fed economic index plunges, latest measure to reflect crippling effect of coronavirus on U.S. growth - MarketWatch
As you can see from this chart, the plunge in this index is consistent with an ongoing recession:
Chicago Federal Reserve index hints at US recession starting in March - Business Insider It is more than a "hint".
Record government and corporate debt risks ‘tipping point’ after pandemic passes The Day of Reckoning is moving closer to the present. The federal government debt will increase by over $4 trillion this year. Corporate debt is also accelerating at a rapid pace. I would use the phrase "tipping point" in a different manner. The tipping point is when the federal government clearly passes a point in time where actions requiring significant sacrifice could be taken to avoid the Day of Reckoning. That point was reached this year, thereby making the end game inevitable and unavoidable IMO.
Stirrings of unrest around the world could portend turmoil as economies collapse
U.S. existing home sales tumble in March - Reuters
The St Louis FED Financial Stress Index has recently been modified (blue line) from its original version (red line):
Global auto sales expected to plummet 22% in 2020 due to coronavirus
New York Fed Weekly Economic Index:
Russia is the world’s biggest loser from oil’s crash, and that’s reason to worry - MarketWatch
+++++++
I would note that no House republican voted for Obama's stimulus package that was passed in response to the Near Depression. H.R. 1 (111th): American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 -- GovTrack.us
About a third of that package consisted of tax breaks, including a $116B payroll tax credit. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009; Publication 553 (Rev. June 2009 explaining the tax credit). The estimated cost was initially thought to be less than $800B over the 2009-2019 period, but the CBO later revised that estimate to about $831B. Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output from July 2011 Through September 2011
The recently passed stimulus packages will end up costing almost 4 times more, but republicans in both the senate and house overwhelmingly supported the expenditures. Why would they support those packages and overwhelmingly vote against the much smaller Obama plan? The Democrats supported both. It is important to see people for who they are rather than who they pretend to be.
The truth of the matter is that the republicans would have allowed the economy to go to hell in 2009 rather than cooperate with a black Democrat president. McConnell and other republicans had already made it clear that defeating the democrats in the 2010 midterms and Obama in 2012 was their overreaching dominant goal. Sure, they will dress it up as some kind of principle, convenient for the moment and later forgotten or abandoned altogether when yes votes are needed to save themselves and a republican president.
Only 3 republican senators voted for the Obama stimulus plan. One of those senators, Arlen Specter, later became a Democrat. The other two were the two women senators from Maine. H.R. 1 (111th): American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 -- GovTrack.us
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Why Mark Mobius says stock-market investors should be prepared for a retest of the lows - MarketWatch It will be difficult for investors to shrug off bad economic and earnings news, but so far they have largely managed to do so.
‘The world is more screwed up’ than the stock market is currently reflecting, warns billionaire investor Howard Marks - MarketWatch
Coronavirus: El-Erian sees US economy contracting 10%-14% in 2020
Why Mark Mobius says stock-market investors should be prepared for a retest of the lows - MarketWatch It will be difficult for investors to shrug off bad economic and earnings news, but so far they have largely managed to do so.
‘The world is more screwed up’ than the stock market is currently reflecting, warns billionaire investor Howard Marks - MarketWatch
Coronavirus: El-Erian sees US economy contracting 10%-14% in 2020
Coronavirus will hit market for 18 to 24 months: Phil Orlando By hit, Orlando is referring to how long it may take for the S & P 500 to surpass the previous high. That is still optimistic using that yardstick IMO.
United Airlines warns of $2.1 billion loss and revenue miss, to receive up to $9.5 billion under CARES Act - MarketWatch
Coca-Cola (KO) earnings Q1 2020 (KO noted that global demand declined by 25% since the start of April)
Last week was just another example of the Stock Jocks ignoring really bad economic news which does not even call into question their current consensus opinion that a robust recovery will start no later than the third quarter and will only gain momentum thereafter.
The fact that the economic news is horrific now and will continue to be awful for weeks is accepted by stock investors, but viewed as irrelevant when valuing most companies longer term
So really bad news next week or next month, or even into the summer months, will probably only cause temporary and mild anxiety attacks. Maybe if conditions do not look so hot in August, for whatever reason, the optimism bubble could then pop and investors buying now can revisit that all is lost feeling again with a retest of the March low.
Coca-Cola (KO) earnings Q1 2020 (KO noted that global demand declined by 25% since the start of April)
Last week was just another example of the Stock Jocks ignoring really bad economic news which does not even call into question their current consensus opinion that a robust recovery will start no later than the third quarter and will only gain momentum thereafter.
The fact that the economic news is horrific now and will continue to be awful for weeks is accepted by stock investors, but viewed as irrelevant when valuing most companies longer term
So really bad news next week or next month, or even into the summer months, will probably only cause temporary and mild anxiety attacks. Maybe if conditions do not look so hot in August, for whatever reason, the optimism bubble could then pop and investors buying now can revisit that all is lost feeling again with a retest of the March low.
+++++
Trump:
Special Report: Former Labradoodle breeder was tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force - Reuters No one should be surprised since Donald only hires the best people. 17 of the ‘best people’ Trump hired — and then attacked - The Washington Post;
President Trump made 18,000 false or misleading claims in 1,170 days - The Washington Post Those are just the ones publicly made. For Trumpsters, the Fake News does not come from Donald, of course, but from the fact checking organizations that tally his demonstrably false statements.
75% of republicans view Trump as honest. (Question 11 National (US) Poll - March 9, 2020) They are of course hopeless.
Maryland GOP Governor says Trump's claim that states have enough testing capacity is "absolutely false"
'Delusional,' 'Absolutely false': Governors cry foul on Trump testing claims
Coronavirus Testing Hampered by Disarray, Shortages, Backlogs
Fact check: Trump's Saturday (4/18) coronavirus briefing was littered with false claims, old and new
Fact check: President Trump's false claims from Tuesday's (4/21) coronavirus briefing
Fact check: Trump wrongly declares some states don't have 'any problem' with coronavirus
Trump's Inaccurate COVID-19 Death Rate Comparison - FactCheck.org
PolitiFact | Donald Trump falsely claims Nancy Pelosi deleted video telling people to go to Chinatown; Trump's False Claims about Pelosi and Chinatown - FactCheck.org
FactChecking Trump's Attack on the WHO - FactCheck.org ("President Donald Trump made a series of false, misleading and unsubstantiated claims about the WHO.")
Trump's Inaccurate COVID-19 Death Rate Comparison - FactCheck.org
Donald does not like tough questions from a reporter, particularly when the reporter is a woman, in this example CBS News' Weijia Jiang.
Special Report: Former Labradoodle breeder was tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force - Reuters No one should be surprised since Donald only hires the best people. 17 of the ‘best people’ Trump hired — and then attacked - The Washington Post;
President Trump made 18,000 false or misleading claims in 1,170 days - The Washington Post Those are just the ones publicly made. For Trumpsters, the Fake News does not come from Donald, of course, but from the fact checking organizations that tally his demonstrably false statements.
75% of republicans view Trump as honest. (Question 11 National (US) Poll - March 9, 2020) They are of course hopeless.
Maryland GOP Governor says Trump's claim that states have enough testing capacity is "absolutely false"
'Delusional,' 'Absolutely false': Governors cry foul on Trump testing claims
Coronavirus Testing Hampered by Disarray, Shortages, Backlogs
Fact check: Trump's Saturday (4/18) coronavirus briefing was littered with false claims, old and new
Fact check: President Trump's false claims from Tuesday's (4/21) coronavirus briefing
Trump's Inaccurate COVID-19 Death Rate Comparison - FactCheck.org
PolitiFact | Donald Trump falsely claims Nancy Pelosi deleted video telling people to go to Chinatown; Trump's False Claims about Pelosi and Chinatown - FactCheck.org
FactChecking Trump's Attack on the WHO - FactCheck.org ("President Donald Trump made a series of false, misleading and unsubstantiated claims about the WHO.")
Trump's Inaccurate COVID-19 Death Rate Comparison - FactCheck.org
Donald does not like tough questions from a reporter, particularly when the reporter is a woman, in this example CBS News' Weijia Jiang.
She challenged Trump's demonstrably false claims that he banned travel from China and closed the border with China. Donald imposed some restrictions on Chinese nationals traveling to the U.S. About 40,000 people travelled from China to the U.S. after Donald allegedly banned travel and closed the border. Direct flights brought 40k from China after Trump travel ban - Axios There was insufficient screening of those travelers.
{Trump on 4/19/2o: “Crazy Nancy Pelosi deleted this from her Twitter account. She wanted everyone to pack into Chinatown long after I closed the BORDER TO CHINA. Based on her statement, she is responsible for many deaths. She’s an incompetent, third-rate politician!” Transcript Quote - Press Conference: Donald Trump Holds the Daily Coronavirus Pandemic Briefing - April 19, 2020 | Factbase There are a number of demonstrably false statements just in that one quote, which is normal for Demagogue Don, including the lie that Pelosi deleted a tweet Trump vs. Pelosi: What happened in Chinatown - The Washington Post.}
When the Trumpsters are all gone, and no one even remembers the Trump sycophants at Fox other than possibly some of their lineal descendants, Trump's tweets will still live on and will be what most Americans will remember about his Presidency. {Most people could not tell you anything about that their 2nd great grandparents and nothing or close to it about their 1x great grandparents}
Trump Adviser Stephen Moore Compares Coronavirus Protesters to Rosa Parks;
A Group Linked To Betsy DeVos Is Organizing Protests To End Social Distancing;
Trump calls protesters against stay-at-home orders 'very responsible'-The Guardian Fact checkers also noted that Trump's claim about the protestors standing six feet apart was false. Fact check: On Sunday, Trump takes no break from repeating false virus claims Looking at some pictures, I saw more people carrying weapons than wearing masks.
U.S. sent millions of face masks to China in January and February 2020, ignoring pandemic warning signs - The Washington Post
Eager to return to normal, Trump and Pence offer questionable coronavirus data
{Trump on 4/19/2o: “Crazy Nancy Pelosi deleted this from her Twitter account. She wanted everyone to pack into Chinatown long after I closed the BORDER TO CHINA. Based on her statement, she is responsible for many deaths. She’s an incompetent, third-rate politician!” Transcript Quote - Press Conference: Donald Trump Holds the Daily Coronavirus Pandemic Briefing - April 19, 2020 | Factbase There are a number of demonstrably false statements just in that one quote, which is normal for Demagogue Don, including the lie that Pelosi deleted a tweet Trump vs. Pelosi: What happened in Chinatown - The Washington Post.}
When the Trumpsters are all gone, and no one even remembers the Trump sycophants at Fox other than possibly some of their lineal descendants, Trump's tweets will still live on and will be what most Americans will remember about his Presidency. {Most people could not tell you anything about that their 2nd great grandparents and nothing or close to it about their 1x great grandparents}
Trump Adviser Stephen Moore Compares Coronavirus Protesters to Rosa Parks;
A Group Linked To Betsy DeVos Is Organizing Protests To End Social Distancing;
Trump calls protesters against stay-at-home orders 'very responsible'-The Guardian Fact checkers also noted that Trump's claim about the protestors standing six feet apart was false. Fact check: On Sunday, Trump takes no break from repeating false virus claims Looking at some pictures, I saw more people carrying weapons than wearing masks.
U.S. sent millions of face masks to China in January and February 2020, ignoring pandemic warning signs - The Washington Post
Eager to return to normal, Trump and Pence offer questionable coronavirus data
Steve Schmidt is one of the few republicans who haves not drank Trump's Kool Aid. Trump Blasted For Most Inept Response To 'Any Crisis In History'-YouTube
Americans at World Health Organization transmitted real-time information about coronavirus to Trump administration - The Washington Post
In TrumpWorld, healthcare workers have more than enough personal protection equipment: ‘We’re beyond angered’: Fed up nurses file lawsuits, plan protest at White House over lack of coronavirus protections
VA Instructs Coronavirus-Exposed Staff to Continue Working, Places Those Who Don’t in AWOL Status - Government Executive; More than 1,600 employees at VA medical facilities have coronavirus | Federal News Network
Trump refers to the existing tests show who "us who might have developed the wonderful, beautiful, immunity.” Even if test properly shows the presence of antibodies, it is not clear what the level needs to be in order to provide immunity or how long immunity will last even it exists. Coronavirus immunity remains big question mark for a country eager to reopen - The Washington Post
Virus-Denialist-in-Chief: Trump Claims 'You May Not Even Have Corona Coming Back' as Fauci Says 'I Am Convinced' It Will
Trump approved of Georgia’s plan to reopen businesses before bashing it - MarketWatch
EPA guts rule credited with cleaning up toxic air from coal and oil power plants-MarketWatch Under Trump the EPA is no longer the Environmental Protection Agency but the polluters protection agency. In TrumpWorld, global warming does not exist and climate science is Fake News.
Covid-19 Updates:
Autopsies find first U.S. coronavirus death occurred in early February, weeks earlier than previously thought Covid-19 was already spreading in the U.S. in early February.
When 6 feet isn’t nearly enough to keep you safe from the coronavirus - MarketWatch In a study published in the journal of Emerging Infectious Diseases, one diner at a restaurant, who was infected and asymptomatic, spread COVID-19 to 9 other diners. Droplet spread was accomplished through air conditioner air flow. How Coronavirus Infected Some, but Not All, in a Restaurant - The New York Times I suspect that the rapid spread of infections about the Diamond Princess, occurring after passengers were quarantined to their quarters, was in part accomplished through air conditioner ventilation.
I thought this was a useful article, written by an emergency room physician treating COVID-19 infections, that provides practical advice on how to measure at home early lung problems associated with a COVID 19 infection. The Infection That’s Silently Killing Coronavirus Patients - The New York Times In its early stages, the infected person may not even realize that lung function is deteriorating. Normal oxygen saturation for most persons is 94 percent to 100 percent at sea level. It may take a week or so before an infected person has shortness of breath even though a chest X reveals pneumonia and the patient has low levels of oxygen (silent hypoxia). The doctor explains how that happens. Suffice it to say, you can purchase a pulse oximetry device that measures oxygen saturation levels. Amazon.com: pulse oximeter
WHO chief warns the worst of the coronavirus is still ahead
The FDA is giving emergency approvals to antibody tests that do not work. Covid-19 Antibody Test, Seen as Key to Reopening Country, Does Not Yet Deliver - The New York Times; FDA did not review many coronavirus antibody tests flooding the market - The Washington Post
COVID 19 at Meat packing plants: USA Today Investigation
More than 1,800 inmates at Marion Correctional positive coronavirus
90 workers test positive for COVID-19 at Tyson Foods Goodlettsville plant; company says its taking measures
The republican governor of Iowa, Kim Reynolds, has refused to close and clean an Iowa meat packing facility notwithstanding soaring Covid-19 infections and an observation by the county sheriff Tony Thompson that many employees had no personal protective equipment. Waterloo Tyson TRANSCRIPT: 4/20/20
The republican Governor said that she was aware of a "suspected outbreak" at the plant. County Officials See COVID-19 Surge From Waterloo Meat Packing Plant; Governor Won't Close It | Iowa Public Radio; Coronavirus: Local officials blast Tyson Foods for keeping Iowa plant open Notwithstanding the republican Governor's refusal to shut the plant temporarily to protect worker and community health, Tyson elected to do so. Tyson packing plant in Waterloo shutting down indefinitely after dozens of workers come down with coronavirus | weareiowa.com That was the prudent thing to do until the plant can be cleaned, all workers tested and any uninfected workers returned to work with proper PPE.
The Federal Government Must Act on Supply Chains to Enable COVID-19 Testing in High Volumes (press release from the American Association for Clinical Chemistry)
Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say - The New York Times
WHO warning: No evidence antibody tests can show coronavirus immunity
In New York’s largest hospital system, 88 percent of coronavirus patients on ventilators didn’t make it
++
Trump's Reality Creation on the Swine Flu Pandemic:
The Fake News President has a new reality creation:
Donald is incapable of being straight with the American people. Lying all the time works extremely well for him on about 1/2 of voters so why stop.
The Swine Flu pandemic resulted, not in in 17K U.S. deaths as falsely claimed by Lying Don, but 12,469.
The Swine Flu was a new strain of flu virus that first appeared in the spring of 2009. 2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC
Few young people had an existing immunity, whereas about 1/3rd of persons over 60 had antibodies against this virus.
A vaccine was quickly developed but was not available in large quantities until November 2009 after a peak in infections.
The CDC summarized the excellent response to this pandemic in this publication. CDC Novel H1N1 Flu | The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: Summary Highlights, April 2009-April 2010 Donald does not want anyone to actually read that kind of publication.
Only in TrumpWorld could a democrat President be blamed for a really fast vaccine development and the understandable issues in producing mass quantities of the vaccine so quickly after the initial infection was discovered (April 2009) and a vaccine developed.
++
Fox "News" and the Covid-19 Pandemic:
A Beloved Bar Owner, Joe Joyce, Was Skeptical About the Virus. Then He Took a Cruise. - The New York Times Mr. Joyce unfortunately watched Fox "News" and Sean Hannity. He believed what the was being told by Hannity that the public was being scared "unnecessarily". He went on a cruise in early March and died of Covid-19. How Fox’s Sean Hannity has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic in America | Media Matters for America
Sean Hannity opened his Fox "News" program on 2/27/20 with the following comments:
Americans at World Health Organization transmitted real-time information about coronavirus to Trump administration - The Washington Post
In TrumpWorld, healthcare workers have more than enough personal protection equipment: ‘We’re beyond angered’: Fed up nurses file lawsuits, plan protest at White House over lack of coronavirus protections
VA Instructs Coronavirus-Exposed Staff to Continue Working, Places Those Who Don’t in AWOL Status - Government Executive; More than 1,600 employees at VA medical facilities have coronavirus | Federal News Network
Virus-Denialist-in-Chief: Trump Claims 'You May Not Even Have Corona Coming Back' as Fauci Says 'I Am Convinced' It Will
Trump approved of Georgia’s plan to reopen businesses before bashing it - MarketWatch
EPA guts rule credited with cleaning up toxic air from coal and oil power plants-MarketWatch Under Trump the EPA is no longer the Environmental Protection Agency but the polluters protection agency. In TrumpWorld, global warming does not exist and climate science is Fake News.
++
Doctor Don- "What do you have to lose":
Citing a 'primary outcome' of death, researchers cut chloroquine study short over safety concerns
Dr. Rick Bright was leading the U.S. effort to develop a vaccine for COVID-19. Dr. Bright claimed that he was ousted from that position after he expressed concerns about the malaria drug, hydroxychloroquine, that Doctor Don and Trump TV were promoting for COVID-19. Hydroxychloroquine: Rick Bright says he was demoted after objections to drug Trump praised - Vox;
Coronavirus Vaccine Doctor Says He Was Fired Over Doubts on Hydroxychloroquine
HHS ousts vaccine expert who pushed back on COVID-19 treatment - CBS News
The real evidence supporting the recommendation made by Doctor Don, whose M.D. is in B.S, is currently lacking, but who cares about facts in TrumpWorld. Facts just keep one what accepting Donald's reality creations.
When asked about Bright's removal, Donald claimed that he did not know the person in charge of coordinating the U.S. vaccine response to COVID-19.
Later, a CNN lady reporter, Kaitlan Collins, was in the process of asking Donald a question about the firing of Dr. Bright when he cut her off, looked to his left in disgust as if to say why do I, Donald the Great, God's Gift to Women and an Extremely Stable Genius, have to answer questions from women reporters. CNN Kaitlan Collins Was Heroic at Trump Coronavirus Briefing Donald then asserted that CNN was Fake News and he was not going to answer the question.
Vanity Fair published Trump Administration emails that showed political appointees pressuring government health officials to make this malaria drug available to the public without a doctor's supervision. Just reckless. Coronavirus treatment: Leaked emails reveal secret White House chloroquine plan; “Really Want to Flood NY and NJ”: Internal Documents Reveal Team Trump’s Chloroquine Master Plan | Vanity Fair
Maybe some evidence will turn up supporting Doctor Don's medical opinion, or maybe the use of his "miracle" drug will just kill some people with no discernible benefits compared to alternative treatments.
Study finds no benefit, higher death rate in patients taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 This was a small study conducted by the VA.
Sean Hannity had a predictable response to the VA study. Sean Hannity slams Veterans Affairs study showing hydroxychloroquine is ineffective and potentially dangerous | Media Matters for America
U.S. Virus Treatment Guidelines Reject Trump-Backed Drug Combo ("The NIH panel, made up of 50 doctors, pharmacy experts and government researchers and officials, specifically recommended against the use of the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine . . .The malaria pill can cause heart issues") The malaria drug has been touted by the television personalities at Fox "News" and Doctor Don.
'Medication I can't live without': Lupus patients are struggling to get hydroxychloroquine diverted for COVID-19 This is Donald's fault.
++
Doofus Don In Full Bloom:
It is hard to believe that medical doctors have not gotten on board with Doctor Don's many suggestions for treating COVID-19.
Sean Hannity must be filled with rage when doctors warned against ingesting household cleaners as a treatment. Trump suggests 'injection' of disinfectant to beat coronavirus and 'clean' the lungs;
Fact check: Trump dangerously suggests sunlight and ingesting disinfectants could help cure coronavirus
The White House Spins Trump's Disinfectant Remarks - FactCheck.org
Donald was not being sarcastic. He was just being Doofus Don, the guy who proved that he was the greatest businessman in history by bankrupting six businesses and losing almost a billion dollars when his mind was in far better shape than now. Trump Insists He Lost $1 Billion on Purpose | Vanity Fair
++
Donald's Jihad Against Fact Based Science-The Case of Dr. Nancy Messonnier:
Trump also wanted to fire Dr. Nancy Messonnier, who runs the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, for warning on 2/25/20 that this virus was likely to spread in the U.S. C.D.C. Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the U.S.-The New York Times (2/25/20 article) This is just another aspect of the GOP's Jihad Against Science. Trump threatened to fire CDC's chief of respiratory diseases in February: report | TheHill
Donald was angry that Dr. Messonnier's science based statement, which proved soon to be accurate, caused a dip in the stock market. Messonnier's science based warnings was inconsistent with the reality creation that Donald was peddling at the time:
Another example is having scientists try to walk back statements that they admit to making which are true but contradict a Trump reality creation. CDC director RedField tries to walk back remarks on coronavirus made in a WP Interview
Redfield admitted that he was correctly quoted by the WP, but Donald insisted that the article was Fake News and Redfield had been misquoted.
The accurate quote found in the WP article was as follows: "There's a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through. We're going to have the flue epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time". Publishing that quote, which Redfield admitted was accurate, is Fake News in Trump's America.
Under Trump, coronavirus scientists can speak — as long as they mostly toe the line - The Washington Post
++++
Doctor Don- "What do you have to lose":
Citing a 'primary outcome' of death, researchers cut chloroquine study short over safety concerns
Dr. Rick Bright was leading the U.S. effort to develop a vaccine for COVID-19. Dr. Bright claimed that he was ousted from that position after he expressed concerns about the malaria drug, hydroxychloroquine, that Doctor Don and Trump TV were promoting for COVID-19. Hydroxychloroquine: Rick Bright says he was demoted after objections to drug Trump praised - Vox;
Coronavirus Vaccine Doctor Says He Was Fired Over Doubts on Hydroxychloroquine
HHS ousts vaccine expert who pushed back on COVID-19 treatment - CBS News
When asked about Bright's removal, Donald claimed that he did not know the person in charge of coordinating the U.S. vaccine response to COVID-19.
Later, a CNN lady reporter, Kaitlan Collins, was in the process of asking Donald a question about the firing of Dr. Bright when he cut her off, looked to his left in disgust as if to say why do I, Donald the Great, God's Gift to Women and an Extremely Stable Genius, have to answer questions from women reporters. CNN Kaitlan Collins Was Heroic at Trump Coronavirus Briefing Donald then asserted that CNN was Fake News and he was not going to answer the question.
Vanity Fair published Trump Administration emails that showed political appointees pressuring government health officials to make this malaria drug available to the public without a doctor's supervision. Just reckless. Coronavirus treatment: Leaked emails reveal secret White House chloroquine plan; “Really Want to Flood NY and NJ”: Internal Documents Reveal Team Trump’s Chloroquine Master Plan | Vanity Fair
Maybe some evidence will turn up supporting Doctor Don's medical opinion, or maybe the use of his "miracle" drug will just kill some people with no discernible benefits compared to alternative treatments.
Study finds no benefit, higher death rate in patients taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 This was a small study conducted by the VA.
Sean Hannity had a predictable response to the VA study. Sean Hannity slams Veterans Affairs study showing hydroxychloroquine is ineffective and potentially dangerous | Media Matters for America
U.S. Virus Treatment Guidelines Reject Trump-Backed Drug Combo ("The NIH panel, made up of 50 doctors, pharmacy experts and government researchers and officials, specifically recommended against the use of the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine . . .The malaria pill can cause heart issues") The malaria drug has been touted by the television personalities at Fox "News" and Doctor Don.
'Medication I can't live without': Lupus patients are struggling to get hydroxychloroquine diverted for COVID-19 This is Donald's fault.
++
Doofus Don In Full Bloom:
It is hard to believe that medical doctors have not gotten on board with Doctor Don's many suggestions for treating COVID-19.
Sean Hannity must be filled with rage when doctors warned against ingesting household cleaners as a treatment. Trump suggests 'injection' of disinfectant to beat coronavirus and 'clean' the lungs;
Fact check: Trump dangerously suggests sunlight and ingesting disinfectants could help cure coronavirus
The White House Spins Trump's Disinfectant Remarks - FactCheck.org
Donald was not being sarcastic. He was just being Doofus Don, the guy who proved that he was the greatest businessman in history by bankrupting six businesses and losing almost a billion dollars when his mind was in far better shape than now. Trump Insists He Lost $1 Billion on Purpose | Vanity Fair
++
Donald's Jihad Against Fact Based Science-The Case of Dr. Nancy Messonnier:
Trump also wanted to fire Dr. Nancy Messonnier, who runs the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, for warning on 2/25/20 that this virus was likely to spread in the U.S. C.D.C. Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the U.S.-The New York Times (2/25/20 article) This is just another aspect of the GOP's Jihad Against Science. Trump threatened to fire CDC's chief of respiratory diseases in February: report | TheHill
Donald was angry that Dr. Messonnier's science based statement, which proved soon to be accurate, caused a dip in the stock market. Messonnier's science based warnings was inconsistent with the reality creation that Donald was peddling at the time:
 |
| 2/24/20 "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA" |
 |
| As if 4/24 U.S.A. Data |
Redfield admitted that he was correctly quoted by the WP, but Donald insisted that the article was Fake News and Redfield had been misquoted.
Under Trump, coronavirus scientists can speak — as long as they mostly toe the line - The Washington Post
++++
Covid-19 Updates:
Autopsies find first U.S. coronavirus death occurred in early February, weeks earlier than previously thought Covid-19 was already spreading in the U.S. in early February.
When 6 feet isn’t nearly enough to keep you safe from the coronavirus - MarketWatch In a study published in the journal of Emerging Infectious Diseases, one diner at a restaurant, who was infected and asymptomatic, spread COVID-19 to 9 other diners. Droplet spread was accomplished through air conditioner air flow. How Coronavirus Infected Some, but Not All, in a Restaurant - The New York Times I suspect that the rapid spread of infections about the Diamond Princess, occurring after passengers were quarantined to their quarters, was in part accomplished through air conditioner ventilation.
I thought this was a useful article, written by an emergency room physician treating COVID-19 infections, that provides practical advice on how to measure at home early lung problems associated with a COVID 19 infection. The Infection That’s Silently Killing Coronavirus Patients - The New York Times In its early stages, the infected person may not even realize that lung function is deteriorating. Normal oxygen saturation for most persons is 94 percent to 100 percent at sea level. It may take a week or so before an infected person has shortness of breath even though a chest X reveals pneumonia and the patient has low levels of oxygen (silent hypoxia). The doctor explains how that happens. Suffice it to say, you can purchase a pulse oximetry device that measures oxygen saturation levels. Amazon.com: pulse oximeter
WHO chief warns the worst of the coronavirus is still ahead
The FDA is giving emergency approvals to antibody tests that do not work. Covid-19 Antibody Test, Seen as Key to Reopening Country, Does Not Yet Deliver - The New York Times; FDA did not review many coronavirus antibody tests flooding the market - The Washington Post
COVID 19 at Meat packing plants: USA Today Investigation
More than 1,800 inmates at Marion Correctional positive coronavirus
90 workers test positive for COVID-19 at Tyson Foods Goodlettsville plant; company says its taking measures
The republican governor of Iowa, Kim Reynolds, has refused to close and clean an Iowa meat packing facility notwithstanding soaring Covid-19 infections and an observation by the county sheriff Tony Thompson that many employees had no personal protective equipment. Waterloo Tyson TRANSCRIPT: 4/20/20
The republican Governor said that she was aware of a "suspected outbreak" at the plant. County Officials See COVID-19 Surge From Waterloo Meat Packing Plant; Governor Won't Close It | Iowa Public Radio; Coronavirus: Local officials blast Tyson Foods for keeping Iowa plant open Notwithstanding the republican Governor's refusal to shut the plant temporarily to protect worker and community health, Tyson elected to do so. Tyson packing plant in Waterloo shutting down indefinitely after dozens of workers come down with coronavirus | weareiowa.com That was the prudent thing to do until the plant can be cleaned, all workers tested and any uninfected workers returned to work with proper PPE.
The Federal Government Must Act on Supply Chains to Enable COVID-19 Testing in High Volumes (press release from the American Association for Clinical Chemistry)
Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say - The New York Times
WHO warning: No evidence antibody tests can show coronavirus immunity
In New York’s largest hospital system, 88 percent of coronavirus patients on ventilators didn’t make it
++
Trump's Reality Creation on the Swine Flu Pandemic:
The Fake News President has a new reality creation:
The Swine Flu pandemic resulted, not in in 17K U.S. deaths as falsely claimed by Lying Don, but 12,469.
The Swine Flu was a new strain of flu virus that first appeared in the spring of 2009. 2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC
Few young people had an existing immunity, whereas about 1/3rd of persons over 60 had antibodies against this virus.
A vaccine was quickly developed but was not available in large quantities until November 2009 after a peak in infections.
The CDC summarized the excellent response to this pandemic in this publication. CDC Novel H1N1 Flu | The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: Summary Highlights, April 2009-April 2010 Donald does not want anyone to actually read that kind of publication.
Only in TrumpWorld could a democrat President be blamed for a really fast vaccine development and the understandable issues in producing mass quantities of the vaccine so quickly after the initial infection was discovered (April 2009) and a vaccine developed.
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Fox "News" and the Covid-19 Pandemic:
A Beloved Bar Owner, Joe Joyce, Was Skeptical About the Virus. Then He Took a Cruise. - The New York Times Mr. Joyce unfortunately watched Fox "News" and Sean Hannity. He believed what the was being told by Hannity that the public was being scared "unnecessarily". He went on a cruise in early March and died of Covid-19. How Fox’s Sean Hannity has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic in America | Media Matters for America
Sean Hannity opened his Fox "News" program on 2/27/20 with the following comments:
"Tonight, I can report the sky is absolutely falling. We're all doomed. The end is near. The apocalypse is imminent and you're going to all die, all of you in the next 48 hours and it's all President Trump's fault.
Or at least that’s what the media mob and the Democratic extreme radical socialist party would like you to think. They’re now sadly politicizing and actually weaponizing an infectious disease, in what is basically just the latest effort to bludgeon President Trump."
On 2/26/20, Hannity ranted that Senator Schumer and other Democrats were “trying to use the coronavirus to bludgeon President Trump, not telling the truth as usual, shameless politicizing of health and the well-being of Americans.”
On March 9, Hannity made this statement: "This scaring the living hell out of people -- I see it, again, as like, let's bludgeon Trump with this new hoax."
Hannity's hyperbolic harangues pass for intelligent commentary in Trump's America when it is just bombast from someone who knows how to make a buck for himself catering to the Trumpsters.
Hannity's hyperbolic harangues pass for intelligent commentary in Trump's America when it is just bombast from someone who knows how to make a buck for himself catering to the Trumpsters.
In the spiel advanced by Hannity, reporting facts about COVID-19 were simply part of an conspiracy by the liberal "media mob" and the "Democratic extreme socialist party" to hurt Trump's reelection chances and consequently could be dismissed as an overblown, malicious political hit job. That was the message that he was sending to his viewers.
A Pew Research survey last month found that “roughly eight-in-ten (79%) of those whose main source is Fox News say the media slightly or greatly exaggerated the risk of the pandemic, with only 15% saying they got the risks about right.” Cable TV and Coronavirus: How Americans perceive the outbreak and view media coverage differ by main news source | Pew Research Center
New University of Chicago study finds that Hannity viewership correlates with more COVID-19 cases and fatalities | Media Matters for America
New University of Chicago study finds that Hannity viewership correlates with more COVID-19 cases and fatalities | Media Matters for America
Fox co-host attacks Michigan governor for criticizing swastikas at social distancing protest, claims they were being displayed ironically | Media Matters for America
Six different polls show how Fox’s coronavirus coverage endangered its viewers | Media Matters for America
Fox "News" spent more airtime covering a small protest of a state COVID-19 related stay-at-home order than it devoted to the 2017 Women's March. Women's marches live updates: Millions march in L.A. and around the world following Trump's inauguration - Los Angeles Times; Fox News downplays Women's March on Washington - Los Angeles Times But that is to be expected. Bombshell (2019) - IMDb
Fox News’ aggressive promotion of protests against social distancing- Media Matters for America
Promotion, praise, and a ton of coverage: How Fox News embraced protests against coronavirus safety measures | Media Matters for America
Six different polls show how Fox’s coronavirus coverage endangered its viewers | Media Matters for America
Fox "News" spent more airtime covering a small protest of a state COVID-19 related stay-at-home order than it devoted to the 2017 Women's March. Women's marches live updates: Millions march in L.A. and around the world following Trump's inauguration - Los Angeles Times; Fox News downplays Women's March on Washington - Los Angeles Times But that is to be expected. Bombshell (2019) - IMDb
Fox News’ aggressive promotion of protests against social distancing- Media Matters for America
Promotion, praise, and a ton of coverage: How Fox News embraced protests against coronavirus safety measures | Media Matters for America
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Trump tweets order to 'destroy' Iranian boats
Yes, in Trump's America, Donald is without question an honest, Extremely Stable Genius.
+++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted:
1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Bought 50 BMOPRS at C$12.67 and 50 at C$10.59 (C$1 IB Commission-Both Trades):
Quote: BMO-PS.TO
Closing Price 4/24/20 = BMO-PS.TO C$14.02 +C0.11 +0.79%
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 BMOPRS at C$17,85 (10/16/19 Post)
Average Total Cost Per Share (150) = C$13.72
Issuer: Bank of Montreal
Security: Reset Equity Preferred Stock
Dividends: Quarterly and non-cumulative
Current Coupon: 3.852% until 5/24/24
Resets: Every 5 years at a 2.33% spread to the five year Canadian government bond
BMO's preferred stocks are currently rated Baa3/BBB. Credit Ratings
Current Yield at C$13.72 = 7.02%
The prospectus can be accessed here.
2. U.S. Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Added 5 AGRD at $22.27; 5 at $16.74; 5 at $14.21; 5 at $10.25; 5 at $16.5; 5 at $11.6:
Quote Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. 6.5% Senior Notes Due 2042 Overview
Closing Price 4/24/20: ARGD $24.84 -$0.06 -0.24%
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a sub-category of Exchange Traded Bonds
Schwab Account:
I owned 100 shares in the Schwab account before the pandemic panic sent exchange trade bonds into a tailspin. I now own 130 AGRD shares in that account.
I started a small ball purchase program in my Fidelity Account, but only managed to buy 5 shares at before the price went up.
Fidelity Account: 5 at $11.6 with a Current Yield at 14%
Quote: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. 6.5% Senior Notes Due 2042 (ARGD)(this exchange traded bond formerly traded under the AGIIL symbol)
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds; subcategory of EXCHANGE TRADED BONDS
This brings me up to 1 shares in my Schwab taxable account. Item # 3.A. Bought 70 ARGD at $24.93 (12/26/18 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 30 ARGD at $25.33-Used Commission Free Trade (7/25/18 Post)
Average Cost Per Share (Schwab Account) = $ 23.28
Yield at $23.28 = 6.98%
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain (Schwab account): 30 shares with a $25.33 cost basis bought in July 2018. That lot will now be sold whenever I have any profit.
The last quarterly interest payments was received on 3/15/20 and was paid on 100 shares:
This senior unsecured bond can be called now at anytime.
Security Description: Final Prospectus Supplement
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.5% paid on the $25 par value
Interest: Quarterly
Last Ex Interest Date: 2/27/20
Optional Redemption: At $25 plus accrued interest at issuer's option
Guarantor: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. (ARGO)
Senior Unsecured Debt
ARGO Analyst Estimates
ARGO SEC Filings
Maturity: Unless redeemed early at issuer's option, the bond matures on 9/15/42;
Interest Rate Risk: Asymmetric in favor of issuer
Bond Rating: According to Quantumonline, the bond has a BBB- rating from S & P.
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire interest payment with no accrued interest paid to the bond seller)
Realized ARGD Gains to Date: $385.95
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3 Sold 50 AGRD at $25.87 (9/25/19 Post)
Previous Transactions (prior symbol was AGIIL): Item # 4 Sold 100 AGIIL (9/25/17 Post)(profit snapshots = $30.09)-South Gent's Comment Blog # 8: Bought 50 AGIIL at $24.98 (bought back 50 shares sold at $26.69 in May 2016) and Item # 5. Bought 50 AGIIL at $24.6 in IB Account-Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 1/22/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Quote: Entergy Mississippi LLC 4.9% First Mortgage Bonds Overview
Closing Price 4/24/20: EMP $25.49 -$0.06 -0.23%
5 Year Chart as of 3/19:
Credit Ratings:
Security: Prospectus
Category Exchange Traded Baby Bonds a subcategory of Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
First Mortgage Bond (attaches to substantially all assets)
Par Value: $25
Maturity: 10/1/2066 unless issuer calls early
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value + accrued and unpaid interest on or after 10/1/2021.
Trades Flat
If long term interest rates are near current levels then, I would reasonably anticipate that the issuer will redeem at par and refinance as it has done in the past with earlier issued FM bonds.
Comparison to Entergy Mississippi $1K Par value bonds:
I own 4 Entergy Mississippi 3.1% First Mortgage bonds maturing on 7/1/23 and 1 Entergy Mississippi 3.25% FM maturing on 12/1/27.
The first mortgage bonds may have several series with a limit on the total amount.
For Entergy subsidiaries, there will be both exchange traded first mortgage baby bonds ($25 par value) and $1K par value first mortgage bonds traded in the bond market.
I prefer owning the ones traded in the bond market for 2 reasons-most of the time.
First, I can substantially reduce interest rate risk by picking those with relatively short maturities, whereas the exchange traded versions frequently have maturity dates in the distant future. EMP for example will mature on 10/1/2066 unless the issuer exercises it optional redemption right at par value. That right can be exercised for EMP on or after 10/1/2021.
Second, the optional redemption at par value creates asymmetric interest rate risk in favor of the issuer compared to a $1K par value bond that requires a make whole payment. I would not be surprised to see Entergy Mississippi redeem EMP at par value on 10/1/2021 while the $1K FM bond maturing in 2023 will keep on trucking, pumping out interest payments at the 3.1% coupon rate.
The baby bonds, when they were being priced well below par value and have higher coupons, are better options near term when the likelihood of an early redemption within a few years is possible. The reason is obvious. A buy of EMP at $21 and a redemption at $25 on 10/1/21 would generate a $4 per share profit or a 19% return on the investment plus the coupon.
The problem is that the issuer will be happy to let you keep EMP until 2066 when interest rates are rising and the bond price is falling, and the company is unable to refinance at a lower coupon rate.The alternatives for the owner then are (1) sell at a loss or (2) lose the opportunity to reinvest the funds invested in a higher yielding similarly rated bond.
2. Small Ball:
A. Started BUD-Bought 2 at $43.1; 1 at $38.9; 1 at $36.68; 1 at $34.69; 1 at $33.8 and Sold 2 at $47.95:
Quote: BUD | Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. ADR Overview
Closing Price 4/24: BUD $41.91 -$0.02 -0.05%
BUD | Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. ADR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Purchases:
Sold 2 at $47.95 (highest cost lot):
Profit Snapshot: +$9.55
Yes, I know that this is ridiculous but I am playing small ball rules. The pop in BUD shares required a sell of the highest cost lot using that trading system. The sell reduced my average cost per share from $38.4 to $36.02.
For several years now, I have avoided the common stock but have actively traded BUD senior unsecured bonds.
I view BUD as a floundering, beached whale. 2020 will be a tough year due to the coronavirus outbreak and related recessionary conditions.
Average Cost Per Share: $36.02
Dividend: Semi-annually
The dividend history trend is a major negative, though understandable given the debt load, earnings growth and problems relating to the current pandemic.
The dividend was slashed effective for the second semi-annual payment in 2018. BUD Dividend Yield, History & Payout Ratio (Anheuser Busch Inbev)
The second half semi-annual was $.661, paid in December 2019, down from $.9131 in December 2018 and $1.8534 in December 2017.
The dividend was slashed again effective for first semi-annual payment this year. Anheuser-Busch InBev Cuts Its Dividend to Preserve Cash
Sourced: SEC Filing
Ex Dividend Date: 6/9/20
Current Position: 4 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next purchase has to be below $33.8.
Form 20-F:
List of brands by countries starts at page 34.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): BUD is based in Belgium but reports in USDs.
BUD's "underlying" E.P.S. was reported at $.87, down from $1.17 in the 2018 4th quarter. Volume in the 4th quarter rose 1.6% (win non beer volume up 8%). Volumes in Asia declined 5.2% due to slowing growth the coronavirus outbreak.
Sourced: SEC Filed Press Release
Broker Reports (12/31/19): Available to Schwab customers
Argus (3/10/20); Buy with a $60 price target
Morningstar (2/27/20): 5 stars with a FV of $108 per ADR.
B. Started Small Ball "Buying Program" In PFE- Bought 1 at $31.08; 1 at $30.22; 1 at $29.45; 2 at $28.4:
Current Position: 6 Shares
Closing Price 4/24/20: PFE $37.38 +$0.69 +1.88%
Average Cost Per Share: $29.43
I view this stock as a bond substitute. When so classified, I am simply looking for any return in excess of the dividend payments.
Quote: Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
PFE | Pfizer Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
PFE SEC Filings
2019 PFE Annual Report and 2019 Financial Report (filed as a separate document)
Patent Expirations are a major problem IMO:
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 4.A. Sold Remaining 33 PFE shares at $33.44 (8/13/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $90.67); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 PFE at $34.03 (7/13/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $143.42); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 PFE at $34.65 (3/13/17 Post)(profit snapshot =$235.86); Item # 1 Sold: 100 PFE at $31.68 (5/17/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $282.12) Buy discussions are linked in those posts.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.38 per share, raised from $.36 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.
Pfizer Inc. - Stock Information - Dividend & Split History
Last Ex Dividend Date: 1/30/20
Dividend Yield at $29.43 Average Cost = 5.16%
Last Earnings Report (12/31/19):
The footnotes referenced in the preceding snapshot start at page 27 and end at page 33. I do not view this kind of financial reporting as desirable.
Product Revenues:
SEC Filed Press Release
Other Recent News:
Pfizer Inc. - Mylan and Pfizer Provide Update Regarding Proposed Combination of Mylan and Upjohn (now expected to close in the 2020 second half); Mylan and Upjohn, a Division of Pfizer, to Combine, Creating a New Champion for Global Health Uniquely Positioned to Fulfill the World’s Need for Medicine (7/22/19)
Pfizer Announces Closing of Joint Venture With GlaxoSmithKline to Create a Premier Global Consumer Healthcare Company (8/1/2019)
C. Added 5 PBCT at $12; 5 at $10.72; 5 at $9.72 :
Quote: People's United Financial Inc (PBCT)
Closing Price 4/24/20: PBCT $11.88 +$0.69 +6.21%
The market reacted favorably to the first quarter earnings report released after the close on 4/23.
PBCT Consensus Analyst E.P.S. Estimates
PBCT SEC Filings
PBCT 2019 Annual Report
Dividend: Quarterly at $.1775 ($.71 annually)
Stock Information | Dividend History | People's United Bank
Last Ex Dividend: 1/30
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
5 year Financial Data:
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.C. Added 5 PBCT at $14.52; 5 at $13.94 and 5 at $12.65 (3/14/20 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.A. Eliminated PBCT-Sold 101+ at $17.57 (5/22/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.1775 per share ($.71 annually)
Dividend History | People's United Bank
Earnings Report (12/31/19): People's United Financial Reports Fourth Quarter Net Income of $137.5 Million, or $0.31 per Common Share
Net interest margin increased two basis points from 3Q19 to 3.14%
Efficiency Ratio: 55.8%
Net loan charge-off ratio of 0.06% in 4Q19
Return on Tangible Equity: 13.4%
Return on Average Assets: 1.01%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $10.12
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/3/20): This report was released after my purchases.
The provision for credit losses was increased by $22.9 for anticipated impacts of COVID-19 caused loan losses.
Current position: 60+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $14.02
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 5.06%
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
In a report dated 4/15/20, S & P assigned a 3 star rating with a $13 PT.
On 4/9, Jeffries cuts its PT to $12 from $17.
D. Started Small Ball "Buying Program" in VYM-Bought 1 at $66.72; 1 at $65.27; 1 at $63.8; 1 at $62.7; 1 at $60.78:
Quote: VYM | Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF Overview
Closing Price 4/24/20: VYM $76.59 +$0.98 +1.30%
Sponsor's Website: VYM - Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF
Expense Ratio: .06%
Holdings: 395 as of 3/31/20
Dividends: Quarterly and Variable
Top Holdings:
E. Started Small Ball "Buying Program in CUBE-Bought 10 at $22; 2 at $21.55; 1 at $19.73:
Quote: CubeSmart
Closing Price 4/24/20: CUBE $25.28 -$0.22 -0.86%
CubeSmart is a REIT that owns and operates self-storage properties.
Corporate Profile
SEC Filings
March 2020 Investor Presentation (SEC Filed)
2019 CUBE Annual Report (CUBE "owned 523 self-storage properties located in 24 states and in the District of Columbia containing an aggregate of approximately 36.6 million rentable square feet. As of December 31, 2019, approximately 89.5% of the rentable square footage at our owned stores was leased to approximately 306,000 customers . . . In addition, as of December 31, 2019, we managed 649 stores for third parties (including 91 stores containing an aggregate of approximately 6.3 million net rentable square feet as part of four separate unconsolidated real estate ventures) bringing the total number of stores we owned and/or managed to 1,172." Some of the properties managed by CUBE are owned by Jernigan Capital (JCAP) that I discussed in my last post.
Five Year Financials:
Two Year FFO Calculation:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.33 per share ($1.32 annually)
Dividends
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/31/20 (paid 4/15)
Average Cost Per Share: $21.6 (13 shares)
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 6.11%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E. 12/3/19):
2020 Guidance:
SEC Filed Press Release
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
I discuss the purchase of 2 Cubesmart L.P. SU notes in Item # 5.A. below.
F. Added 5 WPC at $43:
Quote: W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC)
Closing Price 4/24/20: WPC $58.72 +$0.67 +1.15%
WPC SEC Filings
Last Common Stock Purchase: South Gent's Comment Blog # 7: Bought 30 WPC at $59.45 (12/10/16 comment) I still own those shares.
Current Position: 35 shares
Dividends: Quarterly at $1.04 per share ($4.16 annually)
W. P. Carey Inc. Increases Quarterly Dividend to $1.04 per Share
Last Ex Dividend: 3/30/20
Yield at $43 = 9.67%
2019 Annual Report WPC is a "diversified net lease REIT with a portfolio of operationally-critical, commercial real estate that includes 1,214 net lease properties covering approximately 140.0 million square feet and 21 operating properties as of December 31, 2019. We invest in high-quality single tenant industrial, warehouse, office, retail, and self-storage properties subject to long-term net leases with built-in rent escalators."
5 Year Financials:
3 Year FFO/AFFO Calculations:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
"As of December 31, 2019, the Company's net lease portfolio consisted of 1,214 properties, comprising 140.0 million square feet leased to 345 tenants, with a weighted-average lease term of 10.7 years and an occupancy rate of 98.8%. In addition, the Company owned 19 self-storage and two hotel operating properties, totaling approximately 1.6 million square feet."
"AFFO of $222.0 million, or $1.28 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter and $856.5 million, or $5.00 per diluted share, for 2019."
"2020 full year AFFO guidance range of $4.86 to $5.01 per diluted share announced, including Real Estate AFFO of between $4.74 and $4.89 per diluted share"
"Revenues, including reimbursable costs, for the 2019 fourth quarter totaled $311.2 million, up 13.8% from $273.4 million for the 2018 fourth quarter."
W. P. Carey Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results
I also own several WPC senior unsecured bonds:
FINRA Bond Detail WPC 4.25% SU Maturing on 10/1/26
FINRA Bond Detail WPC 4% SU Maturing on 2/1/25
Item # 3.B. Bought 2 WPC 4.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 10/1/26 at a TC of 99.682 (3/3/19 Post)
Item # 4.A. Bought 2 WPC 4% SU Bonds at 98.477 (4/19/18 Post)
I sold the WPC 2024 bonds: Item # 4.D. Sold 2 WPC 4.6% SU Bonds Maturing on 4/1/24 at 105.382 (10/2/2017 Post)
H. Restarted ADX-Bought 10 at $11.9:
Quote: Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. (ADX)
Closing Price 4/24/20: ADX $13.88 +$0.16 +1.17%
Sponsor's Website: Adams Funds
SEC Filed 2019 Annual Report (as of 12/31/19, value of assets at $1.954+B vs. cost at $1.233+B) The report also shows the principal changes in holdings for the six month period ending 12/31.
Leverage: None
Top Ten Holdings as of 12/31/19:
Last Elimination: Item # 3.B. Sold 100 at $15.24 (5/22/19 Post)- Item # 4 Bought 100 ADX at $14.12-Used Commission Free Trade (3/3/19 Post)(contains snapshots of largest realized gains and some links to prior discussions)
I have been buying and selling this stock CEF starting in 1984.
The $15.24 sell price is not adjusted for subsequent dividend payments that totaled $1.42 per share including a 2019 year end $1.18 capital gain distribution. Adjusted for those dividend payment, the sell price was $13.82)
Data Date of 4/3/20 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $14.15
Closing Market Price: $11.92
Discount: -15.76%
Sourced: ADX Adams Diversified Equity CEF Connect
ADX Realized Gains 2014 to Date: $3,172.46
Since I sold a 467+ share position in 2015, I had been buying and selling 100 share lots until this 10 lot buy.
The total return for those 100 shares lots has been generated mostly from capital gain distributions paid in December that totaled $4.48 per share (2015-2018) My realized profit numbers do not include dividends and capital gains distributions but only the profit from selling the shares.
Trump tweets order to 'destroy' Iranian boats
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All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted:
1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Bought 50 BMOPRS at C$12.67 and 50 at C$10.59 (C$1 IB Commission-Both Trades):
Closing Price 4/24/20 = BMO-PS.TO C$14.02 +C0.11 +0.79%
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 BMOPRS at C$17,85 (10/16/19 Post)
Average Total Cost Per Share (150) = C$13.72
Issuer: Bank of Montreal
Security: Reset Equity Preferred Stock
Dividends: Quarterly and non-cumulative
Current Coupon: 3.852% until 5/24/24
Resets: Every 5 years at a 2.33% spread to the five year Canadian government bond
BMO's preferred stocks are currently rated Baa3/BBB. Credit Ratings
Current Yield at C$13.72 = 7.02%
The prospectus can be accessed here.
2. U.S. Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Added 5 AGRD at $22.27; 5 at $16.74; 5 at $14.21; 5 at $10.25; 5 at $16.5; 5 at $11.6:
Quote Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. 6.5% Senior Notes Due 2042 Overview
Closing Price 4/24/20: ARGD $24.84 -$0.06 -0.24%
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a sub-category of Exchange Traded Bonds
Schwab Account:
I started a small ball purchase program in my Fidelity Account, but only managed to buy 5 shares at before the price went up.
Fidelity Account: 5 at $11.6 with a Current Yield at 14%
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds; subcategory of EXCHANGE TRADED BONDS
This brings me up to 1 shares in my Schwab taxable account. Item # 3.A. Bought 70 ARGD at $24.93 (12/26/18 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 30 ARGD at $25.33-Used Commission Free Trade (7/25/18 Post)
Average Cost Per Share (Schwab Account) = $ 23.28
Yield at $23.28 = 6.98%
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain (Schwab account): 30 shares with a $25.33 cost basis bought in July 2018. That lot will now be sold whenever I have any profit.
The last quarterly interest payments was received on 3/15/20 and was paid on 100 shares:
Security Description: Final Prospectus Supplement
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.5% paid on the $25 par value
Interest: Quarterly
Last Ex Interest Date: 2/27/20
Optional Redemption: At $25 plus accrued interest at issuer's option
Guarantor: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. (ARGO)
Senior Unsecured Debt
ARGO Analyst Estimates
ARGO SEC Filings
Maturity: Unless redeemed early at issuer's option, the bond matures on 9/15/42;
Interest Rate Risk: Asymmetric in favor of issuer
Bond Rating: According to Quantumonline, the bond has a BBB- rating from S & P.
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire interest payment with no accrued interest paid to the bond seller)
Realized ARGD Gains to Date: $385.95
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3 Sold 50 AGRD at $25.87 (9/25/19 Post)
Previous Transactions (prior symbol was AGIIL): Item # 4 Sold 100 AGIIL (9/25/17 Post)(profit snapshots = $30.09)-South Gent's Comment Blog # 8: Bought 50 AGIIL at $24.98 (bought back 50 shares sold at $26.69 in May 2016) and Item # 5. Bought 50 AGIIL at $24.6 in IB Account-Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 1/22/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
During that 2013 price plunge, I did buy some shares. Item # 6 Bought 50 AGIIL at $20.2 (December 2013 Post) I sold that lot at $24.21: Item # 2 Sold 50 AGIIL at $24.21-Roth IRA (6/28/14 Post)(profit snapshot=$186.48 plus two quarterly interest payments totaling $40.62; total return 22.33% in about 6 months)
Another 50 share lot was bought in October 2013: Item # 3 Bought: 50 AGIIL at $21.11 (10/13/2013 Post). I sold the lot bought in October 2013 at $24.48: Item # 2 Sold: 50 AGIIL at $24.48 (6/7/14 Post)(profit snapshot=$152.58; total return of $193.2 or 18.17% in about 7 months).
B. Bought 10 EMP at $23.76; 5 at $21.07; 10 at $20.39:
B. Bought 10 EMP at $23.76; 5 at $21.07; 10 at $20.39:
Quote: Entergy Mississippi LLC 4.9% First Mortgage Bonds Overview
Closing Price 4/24/20: EMP $25.49 -$0.06 -0.23%
5 Year Chart as of 3/19:
Category Exchange Traded Baby Bonds a subcategory of Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
First Mortgage Bond (attaches to substantially all assets)
Par Value: $25
Maturity: 10/1/2066 unless issuer calls early
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value + accrued and unpaid interest on or after 10/1/2021.
Trades Flat
If long term interest rates are near current levels then, I would reasonably anticipate that the issuer will redeem at par and refinance as it has done in the past with earlier issued FM bonds.
Comparison to Entergy Mississippi $1K Par value bonds:
I own 4 Entergy Mississippi 3.1% First Mortgage bonds maturing on 7/1/23 and 1 Entergy Mississippi 3.25% FM maturing on 12/1/27.
For Entergy subsidiaries, there will be both exchange traded first mortgage baby bonds ($25 par value) and $1K par value first mortgage bonds traded in the bond market.
I prefer owning the ones traded in the bond market for 2 reasons-most of the time.
First, I can substantially reduce interest rate risk by picking those with relatively short maturities, whereas the exchange traded versions frequently have maturity dates in the distant future. EMP for example will mature on 10/1/2066 unless the issuer exercises it optional redemption right at par value. That right can be exercised for EMP on or after 10/1/2021.
Second, the optional redemption at par value creates asymmetric interest rate risk in favor of the issuer compared to a $1K par value bond that requires a make whole payment. I would not be surprised to see Entergy Mississippi redeem EMP at par value on 10/1/2021 while the $1K FM bond maturing in 2023 will keep on trucking, pumping out interest payments at the 3.1% coupon rate.
The baby bonds, when they were being priced well below par value and have higher coupons, are better options near term when the likelihood of an early redemption within a few years is possible. The reason is obvious. A buy of EMP at $21 and a redemption at $25 on 10/1/21 would generate a $4 per share profit or a 19% return on the investment plus the coupon.
The problem is that the issuer will be happy to let you keep EMP until 2066 when interest rates are rising and the bond price is falling, and the company is unable to refinance at a lower coupon rate.The alternatives for the owner then are (1) sell at a loss or (2) lose the opportunity to reinvest the funds invested in a higher yielding similarly rated bond.
2. Small Ball:
A. Started BUD-Bought 2 at $43.1; 1 at $38.9; 1 at $36.68; 1 at $34.69; 1 at $33.8 and Sold 2 at $47.95:
Quote: BUD | Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. ADR Overview
Closing Price 4/24: BUD $41.91 -$0.02 -0.05%
BUD | Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. ADR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Purchases:
Yes, I know that this is ridiculous but I am playing small ball rules. The pop in BUD shares required a sell of the highest cost lot using that trading system. The sell reduced my average cost per share from $38.4 to $36.02.
For several years now, I have avoided the common stock but have actively traded BUD senior unsecured bonds.
I view BUD as a floundering, beached whale. 2020 will be a tough year due to the coronavirus outbreak and related recessionary conditions.
Average Cost Per Share: $36.02
Dividend: Semi-annually
The dividend history trend is a major negative, though understandable given the debt load, earnings growth and problems relating to the current pandemic.
The dividend was slashed effective for the second semi-annual payment in 2018. BUD Dividend Yield, History & Payout Ratio (Anheuser Busch Inbev)
The second half semi-annual was $.661, paid in December 2019, down from $.9131 in December 2018 and $1.8534 in December 2017.
The dividend was slashed again effective for first semi-annual payment this year. Anheuser-Busch InBev Cuts Its Dividend to Preserve Cash
Ex Dividend Date: 6/9/20
Current Position: 4 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next purchase has to be below $33.8.
Form 20-F:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): BUD is based in Belgium but reports in USDs.
BUD's "underlying" E.P.S. was reported at $.87, down from $1.17 in the 2018 4th quarter. Volume in the 4th quarter rose 1.6% (win non beer volume up 8%). Volumes in Asia declined 5.2% due to slowing growth the coronavirus outbreak.
Broker Reports (12/31/19): Available to Schwab customers
Argus (3/10/20); Buy with a $60 price target
Morningstar (2/27/20): 5 stars with a FV of $108 per ADR.
B. Started Small Ball "Buying Program" In PFE- Bought 1 at $31.08; 1 at $30.22; 1 at $29.45; 2 at $28.4:
Current Position: 6 Shares
Closing Price 4/24/20: PFE $37.38 +$0.69 +1.88%
Average Cost Per Share: $29.43
I view this stock as a bond substitute. When so classified, I am simply looking for any return in excess of the dividend payments.
Quote: Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
PFE | Pfizer Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
PFE SEC Filings
2019 PFE Annual Report and 2019 Financial Report (filed as a separate document)
Patent Expirations are a major problem IMO:
 |
| Page 10, 10-K |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.38 per share, raised from $.36 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.
Pfizer Inc. - Stock Information - Dividend & Split History
Last Ex Dividend Date: 1/30/20
Dividend Yield at $29.43 Average Cost = 5.16%
Last Earnings Report (12/31/19):
Product Revenues:
Other Recent News:
Pfizer Inc. - Mylan and Pfizer Provide Update Regarding Proposed Combination of Mylan and Upjohn (now expected to close in the 2020 second half); Mylan and Upjohn, a Division of Pfizer, to Combine, Creating a New Champion for Global Health Uniquely Positioned to Fulfill the World’s Need for Medicine (7/22/19)
Pfizer Announces Closing of Joint Venture With GlaxoSmithKline to Create a Premier Global Consumer Healthcare Company (8/1/2019)
C. Added 5 PBCT at $12; 5 at $10.72; 5 at $9.72 :
Quote: People's United Financial Inc (PBCT)
Closing Price 4/24/20: PBCT $11.88 +$0.69 +6.21%
The market reacted favorably to the first quarter earnings report released after the close on 4/23.
PBCT Consensus Analyst E.P.S. Estimates
PBCT SEC Filings
PBCT 2019 Annual Report
Dividend: Quarterly at $.1775 ($.71 annually)
Stock Information | Dividend History | People's United Bank
Last Ex Dividend: 1/30
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
5 year Financial Data:
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.A. Eliminated PBCT-Sold 101+ at $17.57 (5/22/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.1775 per share ($.71 annually)
Dividend History | People's United Bank
Earnings Report (12/31/19): People's United Financial Reports Fourth Quarter Net Income of $137.5 Million, or $0.31 per Common Share
Net interest margin increased two basis points from 3Q19 to 3.14%
Efficiency Ratio: 55.8%
Net loan charge-off ratio of 0.06% in 4Q19
Return on Tangible Equity: 13.4%
Return on Average Assets: 1.01%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $10.12
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/3/20): This report was released after my purchases.
The provision for credit losses was increased by $22.9 for anticipated impacts of COVID-19 caused loan losses.
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $9.96
NPL Ratio: .54%
NPA Ratio: .59%
Charge Off Ratio: .1%
Current position: 60+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $14.02
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 5.06%
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
In a report dated 4/15/20, S & P assigned a 3 star rating with a $13 PT.
On 4/9, Jeffries cuts its PT to $12 from $17.
D. Started Small Ball "Buying Program" in VYM-Bought 1 at $66.72; 1 at $65.27; 1 at $63.8; 1 at $62.7; 1 at $60.78:
Quote: VYM | Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF Overview
Closing Price 4/24/20: VYM $76.59 +$0.98 +1.30%
Sponsor's Website: VYM - Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF
Expense Ratio: .06%
Holdings: 395 as of 3/31/20
Dividends: Quarterly and Variable
 |
| as of 3/31/20 |
Closing Price 4/24/20: CUBE $25.28 -$0.22 -0.86%
CubeSmart is a REIT that owns and operates self-storage properties.
Corporate Profile
SEC Filings
March 2020 Investor Presentation (SEC Filed)
2019 CUBE Annual Report (CUBE "owned 523 self-storage properties located in 24 states and in the District of Columbia containing an aggregate of approximately 36.6 million rentable square feet. As of December 31, 2019, approximately 89.5% of the rentable square footage at our owned stores was leased to approximately 306,000 customers . . . In addition, as of December 31, 2019, we managed 649 stores for third parties (including 91 stores containing an aggregate of approximately 6.3 million net rentable square feet as part of four separate unconsolidated real estate ventures) bringing the total number of stores we owned and/or managed to 1,172." Some of the properties managed by CUBE are owned by Jernigan Capital (JCAP) that I discussed in my last post.
Five Year Financials:
Dividends
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/31/20 (paid 4/15)
Average Cost Per Share: $21.6 (13 shares)
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 6.11%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E. 12/3/19):
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
I discuss the purchase of 2 Cubesmart L.P. SU notes in Item # 5.A. below.
F. Added 5 WPC at $43:
Quote: W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC)
Closing Price 4/24/20: WPC $58.72 +$0.67 +1.15%
WPC SEC Filings
Last Common Stock Purchase: South Gent's Comment Blog # 7: Bought 30 WPC at $59.45 (12/10/16 comment) I still own those shares.
Current Position: 35 shares
Dividends: Quarterly at $1.04 per share ($4.16 annually)
W. P. Carey Inc. Increases Quarterly Dividend to $1.04 per Share
Last Ex Dividend: 3/30/20
Yield at $43 = 9.67%
2019 Annual Report WPC is a "diversified net lease REIT with a portfolio of operationally-critical, commercial real estate that includes 1,214 net lease properties covering approximately 140.0 million square feet and 21 operating properties as of December 31, 2019. We invest in high-quality single tenant industrial, warehouse, office, retail, and self-storage properties subject to long-term net leases with built-in rent escalators."
5 Year Financials:
"As of December 31, 2019, the Company's net lease portfolio consisted of 1,214 properties, comprising 140.0 million square feet leased to 345 tenants, with a weighted-average lease term of 10.7 years and an occupancy rate of 98.8%. In addition, the Company owned 19 self-storage and two hotel operating properties, totaling approximately 1.6 million square feet."
"AFFO of $222.0 million, or $1.28 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter and $856.5 million, or $5.00 per diluted share, for 2019."
"2020 full year AFFO guidance range of $4.86 to $5.01 per diluted share announced, including Real Estate AFFO of between $4.74 and $4.89 per diluted share"
"Revenues, including reimbursable costs, for the 2019 fourth quarter totaled $311.2 million, up 13.8% from $273.4 million for the 2018 fourth quarter."
W. P. Carey Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results
I also own several WPC senior unsecured bonds:
FINRA Bond Detail WPC 4.25% SU Maturing on 10/1/26
FINRA Bond Detail WPC 4% SU Maturing on 2/1/25
Item # 3.B. Bought 2 WPC 4.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 10/1/26 at a TC of 99.682 (3/3/19 Post)
Item # 4.A. Bought 2 WPC 4% SU Bonds at 98.477 (4/19/18 Post)
I sold the WPC 2024 bonds: Item # 4.D. Sold 2 WPC 4.6% SU Bonds Maturing on 4/1/24 at 105.382 (10/2/2017 Post)
H. Restarted ADX-Bought 10 at $11.9:
Quote: Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. (ADX)
Closing Price 4/24/20: ADX $13.88 +$0.16 +1.17%
Sponsor's Website: Adams Funds
SEC Filed 2019 Annual Report (as of 12/31/19, value of assets at $1.954+B vs. cost at $1.233+B) The report also shows the principal changes in holdings for the six month period ending 12/31.
Leverage: None
Top Ten Holdings as of 12/31/19:
I have been buying and selling this stock CEF starting in 1984.
The $15.24 sell price is not adjusted for subsequent dividend payments that totaled $1.42 per share including a 2019 year end $1.18 capital gain distribution. Adjusted for those dividend payment, the sell price was $13.82)
Data Date of 4/3/20 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $14.15
Closing Market Price: $11.92
Discount: -15.76%
Sourced: ADX Adams Diversified Equity CEF Connect
ADX Realized Gains 2014 to Date: $3,172.46
Since I sold a 467+ share position in 2015, I had been buying and selling 100 share lots until this 10 lot buy.
The total return for those 100 shares lots has been generated mostly from capital gain distributions paid in December that totaled $4.48 per share (2015-2018) My realized profit numbers do not include dividends and capital gains distributions but only the profit from selling the shares.
3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
May 2020 Maturities:
SU = Senior Unsecured Bond ($1K par value per bond)
CD = Certificate of Deposit ($1K par value per CD)-FDIC Insured
MI = Monthly Interest Payments
SI = Semi-Annual Interest Payments
Treasury: U.S. Treasury Debt ($1K par value per bill, note or bond)
SI = Semi-Annual Interest Payments
Treasury: U.S. Treasury Debt ($1K par value per bill, note or bond)
IR: Investment Rate for Treasury Bills bought at auction commission free
Treasury: Secondary Market Purchases are always made at below par value with commission free trades.
2 Ingersol Rand 2.625% SU 5/1 (bought 11/2018)
2 Mondelez 3% SU 5/7 (bought 9/18 & 12/18)
2 Treasury 6 Mo Bills 1.573%IR 5/7 (bought at auction)
5 Treasury 3Mo Bills 1.557%IR 5/7 (bought at auction)
2 Treasury 6 Mo Bills 1.573%IR 5/7 (bought at auction)
5 Treasury 3Mo Bills 1.557%IR 5/7 (bought at auction)
2 Live Oak 2.45% CDs MI 5/8 (13 Month CDs)
1 Ryder 2.5% SU 5/11 (bought 6/18)
1 Wells Fargo 2.5% CD MI 5/11 (2 year CDs)
2 Wells Faro 2.45% CDs MI 5/11 (13 Month CDs)
4 Capital One 2.5% SU 5/12 (bought 3/19; 3/20)
6 Abbvie 2.5% SU 5/14 (bought 2/18; 2/19; 3/20)
10 Treasury 3 Mo Bill 1.582%IR 5/14 (bought at auction)
2 Treasury 6 Mo Bills 1.588% IR 5/14 (bought at auction)
*2 Ipalco Enterprises 3.45% SU 5/14
10 Treasury 3 Mo Bill 1.582%IR 5/14 (bought at auction)
2 Treasury 6 Mo Bills 1.588% IR 5/14 (bought at auction)
*2 Ipalco Enterprises 3.45% SU 5/14
6 Treasury 1.5% 5/15 (secondary market purchases)
** 4 Southern 2.75% SU 5/15
***8 Wisconsin Energy 2.45% SU 5/15
2 Sherwin Williams 2.25% SU 5/15 (bought 2/18)
** 4 Southern 2.75% SU 5/15
***8 Wisconsin Energy 2.45% SU 5/15
2 Sherwin Williams 2.25% SU 5/15 (bought 2/18)
1 Bridgewater 1.75% CD 5/15 (30 Month CD)
*****Plum Creek 4.7% SU 5/18
2 Treasury 6 Mo bill 1.572% IR 5/21 (bought at auction)
10 Treasury 3 Mo Bill 1.577% IR 5/21 (bought at auction
3 NYCB 2.45% CDs 5/22 (1 year CD)
3 First Long Island 1.65% CDs 5/22 (3 month CDs)
****2 J P Morgan 2.75% SU 5/23
*****Plum Creek 4.7% SU 5/18
2 Treasury 6 Mo bill 1.572% IR 5/21 (bought at auction)
10 Treasury 3 Mo Bill 1.577% IR 5/21 (bought at auction
3 NYCB 2.45% CDs 5/22 (1 year CD)
3 First Long Island 1.65% CDs 5/22 (3 month CDs)
****2 J P Morgan 2.75% SU 5/23
4 McDonalds 2.2% SU 5/26 (4 purchase dates)
2 Merchants BK 1.6% CDs 5/27 (3 month CDs)
10 Treasury 3 Mo Bill 1.536%IR 5/28 (bought at auction)
1 Goldman Sachs 2.75% SU 5/29 (bought 4/19)
2 Live Oak 2.4% CDs MI 5/29 (1 year CD)
2 BMO Harris 1.6% CDs 5/29 (3 Mo CDs)
2 Merchants BK 1.6% CDs 5/27 (3 month CDs)
10 Treasury 3 Mo Bill 1.536%IR 5/28 (bought at auction)
1 Goldman Sachs 2.75% SU 5/29 (bought 4/19)
2 Live Oak 2.4% CDs MI 5/29 (1 year CD)
2 BMO Harris 1.6% CDs 5/29 (3 Mo CDs)
2 Stifel Bank 2.7% CD MI 5/31 (2 year CD)
2 Treasury 2.5% 5/31 (secondary market purchases)
1 Treasury 1.5% 5/31 (secondary market)
*Early call, original maturity 7/15/20
** Early call, original maturity 6/15/20
*** Early call, original maturity 6/15/20
**** Early call, original maturity 6/23/20
***** Early call, original maturity 3/15/21 with $33.8 make whole payment per bond:
$110K
*Early call, original maturity 7/15/20
** Early call, original maturity 6/15/20
*** Early call, original maturity 6/15/20
**** Early call, original maturity 6/23/20
***** Early call, original maturity 3/15/21 with $33.8 make whole payment per bond:
4. Short Term Investment Grade Corporate Bonds as an Alternative to MM:
I purchased several different McDonalds senior unsecured bonds that were bought last month. Three of those bonds are discussed below. I have already sold one of them. I will keep the ones maturing on 7/15/20 and 12/9/20 until redeemed by the issuer.
A. Bought 1 McDonalds 3.35% SU Bond Maturing on 4/1/23-SOLD AT 106.34:
Purchased at 98.2/Total Cost at 98.3:
Profit Snapshot: +$79.4
Issuer: McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
MCD | McDonald's Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Bond Offering-March 2020: Prospectus ($750M 3.625% SU maturing in 2049)
SEC Filings
Credit Ratings:
YTM at Total Cost = 3.952%
Sold at 106.34
YTM at 106.34 = 1.079%
B. Bought 2 Eversource Energy 2.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 3/15/21:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
I now own 6 bonds. The last two bond purchase was made in February 2019.
Issuer: Eversource Energy (ES)-Utility
ES | Eversource Energy Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report (debt discussed starting at page 92)
Last Bond Offering (1/2020): $350M of 3.45% SU Bonds Maturing in 2050
A lot of the debt is non-recourse to ES and consists of first mortgage debt on its subsidiaries assets. Those bonds will generally have higher credit ratings than the holding company debt. I own several $1K par value first mortgage bonds issued by wholly owned subsidiaries of electric and gas holding companies.
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.155 (includes $1 per bond commission)
YTM at TC = 3.338%
Current Yield at 99.155 = 2.5213%
C. Bought 1 McDonalds 2.7% SU Bonds Maturing on 12/9/20:
Issuer McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
MCD | McDonald's Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings
Credit Ratings:
YTM at Total Cost: 3.92%
Current Yield at TC = 2.722%
Bought at 99.087
D. Bought 2 McDonald's 3.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 7/15/20:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.5
YTM at TC = 4.796%
5. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 CubeSmart L.P. 4% SU Bonds Maturing on 11/15/25:
Bought at Total Cost of 99.831 (includes $1 per bond commission)
YTM at TC = 4.033%
Current Yield at TC = 4.0068% (an example where the total return is almost entirely embedded in the current yield)
Issuer: Operating entity for CubeSmart (CUBE) who guarantees the notes.
Credit Ratings:
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteRe. "...thereby making the end game inevitable and unavoidable...."
I am curious about 1. what the end game might look like (hyper inflation while the Fed will continue artificially suppressing the interest rate) and
2. in what timeframe (knowing the Government will continue kicking the can down the road).
Y: As to the time frame, I will probably live to see it unfold assuming I live as long as my parents.
DeleteThe end result will be failed treasury auctions with the FED having to create money to buy what can not be sold to retire old debt and to cover current budget deficits which will be in excess of $1 trillion annually (about $4T this year)
Before that happens, there will be problems with a declining USD and the FED losing control over longer term interest rates notwithstanding 20 or so years of QE which started in the 2009 spring and had a brief hiatus before being restarted this year.
Investor perception about the exceedingly long periods of CB QE will change to an opinion that the FED is just monetizing the debt and devaluing the dollar through money creation that is not needed in the real economy. USDs are no longer viewed as a store of value given the explosive creation to fund the purchase of U.S. government debt.
That will lead to higher interest rates with interest on the debt far surpassing $1 trillion per year, which is financed by additional debt. Even without a significantly higher average interest rate on U.S. debt, the annual interest expense will exceed $1T in a few years.
The end result will be another great depression and a collapse in value of assets priced in USDs. There could be hyperinflation, but deflation is more likely with the collapse in demand with assets and money incinerated in vast quantities during the aftermath period.
It is going to take some time to bring down what was created by our ancestors starting in the late 1700s.
I own PFE at 36.37. I think I bought during the 2018 correction. Just a small position. But was enjoying it being up about 30% and leading all my stocks on % before it fell, before the covid crash.
ReplyDeleteDo you consider the mergers a potential positive? Are there any particular sources you use to judge that kind of thing?
""Chicago Federal Reserve index hints at US recession starting in March - Business Insider It is more than a "hint". ""
Yay, we're in a recession. It's forced-made rather than spontaneous. So this time is different that way, is all.
Land: Pfizer's stock was trading around $48 in mid-June 2000. It did return that level briefly last year. The time to own the stock was roughly between 1982 to 2000. The average annual total return starting on 6/1/2020 through last Friday was 2.5%.
DeleteSeveral years ago, when the price was handing around $30 per share, I did a calculation that added up the cost for every PFE acquisition starting with Warner Lambert in 1999. The total cost far exceeded the market cap of PFE. The only acquisition that succeeded was the first one that brought 100% of Lipitor to PFE. Thereafter, several expensive acquisitions occurred in order to have products for the PFE salesforce to peddle (rather than just downsizing) and to compensate for PFE's own failures to produce blockbusters internally. The long series of expensive acquisitions are the basic reason underlying the poor performance over the past two decades. Paying too much for drugs developed elsewhere is not going to produce satisfactory returns for long term shareholders.
I do not see the Upjohn-Mylan merger as being a game changer for PFE. The company is IMO just off loading slower growing generics which will make what's left look better from a growth perspective.
I never got going with the last purchases before the price rose outside of my buy range which is where it is now. I am probably likely to sell when and if the price goes much higher, but may wait until I have a chance to review the next earnings report scheduled for release next Tuesday. I am not embarrassed selling 6 shares.
As to where to obtain information, the only broker that I use, which has a decent collection of stock reports, is Charles Schwab. Analyst reports available for Schwab customers include S & P, Argus, Morningstar, and Credit Suisse.
DeleteThe other sources for information include earnings press releases, other press releases discussing material developments, and annual reports for the most comprehensive discussion which also contains historical financial results.
CNBC and Reuters will generally have some material as well.
PFE at CNBC
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=PFE&qsearchterm=pfe
PFE Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/companies/PFE
PFE at SEC:
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000078003&owner=exclude&count=40&hidefilings=0
Bloomberg was a good source before it went behind a paywall.
Interesting stuff on the mergers. I'm tempted to wait through whatever this is to a bull market again or any decent spikes, since it's a nice div. Debt, Payout & P/E are all okay.
DeleteI don't have a schwab account, so will have to look for each of the sources. Or open one just for researching. Ameritrade can't get basic info set, their news lists haven't impressed me at all yet.
I think I will make a quick bookmark folder which each of the sources.
Land: You can learn a lot from perusing the SEC quarterly reports (10-Q), the annual reports (10-K) and the earnings releases. For a drug company, there will generally be information in one or more of those filings that show patent expirations and sales by products, which are two important pieces of information. I included snapshots of PFE's information on those subjects in this post.
DeletePfizer's current market cap is about $207B. The top 3 acquisitions were Warner Lambert ($112B) in 2000, Pharmacia ($60B) in 2003 and Wyeth ($69B) in 2009. Just those 3 cost $241B.
Some of the smaller acquisitions since Warner in 2000 include Array Biopharma ($10.6B); Hospira ($15.2B); Medivation ($14B); Anacor Pharmaceuticals ($5.2B); King Pharmaceuticals ($3.6B); Vicuron ($1.9B); Esperion Therapeutics ($1.3B); AstraZeneca's small molecule business ($1.575B); Bamboo Therapeutics ($645M); Therachon ($810M) and several smaller ones.
That comes to a $280.195B or about $73B more than the current market cap. Acquiring drugs developed by other companies through expensive acquisitions is not a substitute for growing the business through internal research and development that produces new blockbuster drugs.
I view PFE as a bond substitute.
That's a lot of buying they've done. A whole lot. It's the talk of drug prices being too high that's driving down their price last year... since they have marketable drugs which are effected by new price laws/negotiations compared to their estimates when buying the companies, not miraculous new discoveries that will sell more (than before they existed) at any price.
DeleteCan't decide what to do with PFE today.
Up 5% on my original price. Whopping $55 gain. But it's not a loss.
Earnings report tomorrow. Could sink on it. Ex-div 5/7 next week. 4% div.
It's been hoovering around my buy price not moving down or up much, so it may not lose more than the 4% div by next week. I don't think there'll be more drug price babbling in the next few weeks with everything else going on. So may hold here and see.
Land: I do not think too much about small stock positions.
DeleteI am not inclined to be a long term PFE shareholder since its reliance on large acquisitions has not benefited shareholders long term, as I noted in my prior comment.
Morningstar has a 4 star rating and a $44 fair value. That sounds about right on the FV estimate, but the stock may struggle to reach that point without major positive developments in the pipeline. The analyst lowered the FV from $46 based on an opinion that new drugs launches will suffer due to Covid-19 related impacts, including less patient/physician contacts which is happening. People who are developing symptoms are postponing visits.
Hadn't thought to look at morning star estimate prices on stocks.
DeleteIf I had more, I'd sell some here and call it a split decision.
Paying attention, is a way for me to develop some skills. I've been wishing I'd bought more of various items while down, so it'd be more fun to play with here.
Mostly, I'm waiting for the market to move down to make a bigger buy. Or up enough to look like a bull again to make more buys.
That's it for me today - plans are to go out into that big world and grocery shop. Mask is ready. I hope there aren't lines to get into the stores. Also that chicken and frozen veggies are in stock.
Land: I have another comment from you that appears to be the same as this one. Did you want me to publish both?
DeleteMorningstar is a subscription publication that costs around $200 per year. Schwab customers gain access by being a customer.
There is some information available for free at Morningstar's website, but that does not include the FV estimate or the analyst report.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/pfe/quote
The Schwab account is probably worth the trouble to open IMO just for access to research reports.
And, you can buy third party mutual funds at Schwab which are on their NTF list starting off $100 with $1 or more in subsequent adds.
I did go to Kroger's last Friday to pick up a few items. About 90% of the customers were wearing masks.
Chicken may start to be hard to find given the closures of meat packing plants.
No need to publish. I probably hit send twice.
DeleteNo wonder I never noticed that morningstar data. Yep, I'm thinking it's worth opening a schwab account. I opened a Vang non-IRA just to move my TOT to it - because they take out the foreign tax correctly and scottrade didn't. (You talked about foreign tax problems quite a while ago.)
FG this week surprised me. He's usually so upbeat on the market when there's an excuse to be. He's agnostic here, with some possibility of a pullback, before "a peek into the future suggests a Neutral/BULLISH view." future (his terms). He's not inclined to chase the winners here (like tech).
ReplyDeleteA lot of other places seem to be inclined to chase a little here.
I usually find the comments useful, but everyone's just going back and forth on whether it's right to shut down the economy or not.
Liked this:
"You thought dogs were hard to train...Look at all the humans that can't sit and stay." - The SPCA
I updated Item #2.B., where I discussed the purchase of an exchange traded first mortgage bond issued by Entergy Mississippi.
ReplyDeleteI own 4, not 3 as noted earlier, of the Entergy Mississippi 3.1% first mortgage bonds maturing on 7/1/23 and I own 1 Entergy Mississippi 3.25% FM bond maturing on 12/1/27. I included snapshots of those bonds as well which shows the third party prices as of 4/24/20. I sold 1 of the 2023 FM's in June 2019.
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteSome companies have obtained and returned their PPP loans, but AHT decided to keep it, a sign of deteriorating financial situation.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-dozen-public-companies-give-back-160-million-in-small-business-stimulus-money-others-say-theyll-keep-it-11587831790
Y: AHT is over leveraged and has some near term mortgage maturities which they may be having trouble rolling over. The company did mention in a SEC filing, which I referenced in a previous comment, that it had quit paying interest on some mortgages.
DeleteThe company may not have much access to additional capital from lenders since all of their properties have mortgage liens. So the company through its many subsidiaries may technically qualify for the PPP loans and probably needs every penny to have a chance for survival. It is certainly bad PR for AHT to be the largest beneficiary for those "loans" when all of them are aggregated together. The top guy is a big Trump donor:
https://lawandcrime.com/covid-19-pandemic/major-trump-donor-pocketed-millions-while-his-firm-received-more-stimulus-funds-than-any-public-company-report/
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteSDS has another down day. It has been closely tracking two times the inverse of the daily performance of the S&P500. Now S&P500 is already up 30+% from its low in about a month. Maybe it's an reentry point for SDS?
Y: I will buy SDS now when the market is jaunting higher like today, but so far I have only bought 1 share. I recognize that the Stock Jocks are going to ignore bad economic and earnings news, and are believers in Mnuchin's robust 2nd half recovery prediction. Those opinions make SDS purchase decisions dicey IMO. Timing needs to be good for the double short ETFs to work as a hedge.
DeleteI can not predict when or even if the herd's current consensus opinion about the near future (next 12 months) will change.
There is obviously now a great deal of tolerance for bad news and whatever bad news comes along does not shake the belief in a second half recovery.
Continuation of bad economic and earnings news into the summer months may reach a saturation point where investors start to question their rosy predictions.
If there is growing evidence that states who are now reopening experience a rapid acceleration of new infections, maybe that will cause some to reconsider optimistic predictions about the near future course or that the future is even susceptible of being known now with sufficient clarity to justify optimistic predictions. That may not be known until late May or early June.
As of today I know of two new looming factors as of yet ignored (futures are barely down).
DeleteSaute on CNBC said his company's model has a good few more weeks coming, but by mid or late May it gets more rough. Never said why, but I realized that's when the bankruptcies will start showing. Recovery bills can do a lot but not stop all of the bankruptcies.
The new reports of sudden strokes in younger covid-positive post-mild-illness patients, with an unusually high death rate from the strokes (50%). If futures tonight are any indication, the market doesn't care. I'd expect this to matter though, since it ups the challenges of exposure.
Saute painted after May rough through the summer but didn't expect a re-test, just about 10% at most. I don't agree or disagree with that, just adding for completeness.
DeleteSelling a little into this small business loan rally.
ReplyDeleteIWM 126.90 in my reg and IRA accounts. Got "aggressive" and sold 13 in the reg. For my 401k, decided not to put in a sell IWM at end of day.
My thought is that the IWM recovery is over a particular stimulus. So on a down, it will lose again compared to SPY.
Since it never climbed as much to begin with, and had sunk more, that might not be the right logic here.
I'm not messing with DIA or SPY into this rally. (They aren't high enough to take my early buys into the start of the dip away.)
I don't know if the market's going lower or higher from here. Lots of resistance above, but the common framework is that in 2 years these will be great buys, and by next month recovery will begin so that framework will soon be "obviously what will happen." Nothing's put fear into that. Not even that market was due for a correction before the crisis, so those prices weren't guaranteed already.
It's possible instead that this will put in a floor for IWM, so I'm missing that it will now stabilize compared to the major indices, and the real pop will still come. Last package, that's not what happened.
VYM 77.90 sold 10 in IRA. Will try to buy back lower to match my other lower buys.
Wrote notes to myself on buying back VYM and IWM, so I'm less likely to wimp out.
TXN sold that 9 that I bought at 115.98 for 115.43. A loss, but ex-div is May 1st. I bought too soon in the dip and it's been bugging me. Will see if chance to get back in lower before div.
Already reported a couple days ago, and market was happy with it, but didn't pop much, so that won't be a price driver.
VZ and INTC are still getting niggled lower after earnings. Not by much yet.
WMT's losing into this rally. It's been used as a safe haven. Also small business collectively competes with Walmart.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
ReplyDelete$36.56 +$2.19 (+6.37%)
As of 1:57PM EDT.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KRE?p=KRE&.tsrc=fin-srch
Regional banks have been one of the worst performing sectors since the volatility event caused by the pandemic started on 2/24/20.
VIX Historical:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history?p=%5EVIX
KRE closed at $55.65 on Friday 2/21.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KRE/history?p=KRE
While some optimism is seeping into this sector, and I probably need to add "for the moment", the overall sentiment remains bearish but less dark and gloomy than when KRE closed at $28.13 on its ex dividend date (3/23). The 52 week high is $59.38, hit intra-day on 12/18/19.
A few points have been made about bottoms. That leadership normally changes from safety to cyclical. (Safety current defined as growth FAANG stocks of course and healthcare.) Today was the first day of down FANG but an up day with kind of new leaders.
DeleteAnother was that there can't be a recovery without financials. So KRE having a good day, is a change of pace.
Pfizer Inc
ReplyDeletePre-Opening: $39.20 +$ 0.92 +2.40%
Before Hours Volume: 202.6K
Last Updated: Apr 28, 2020 at 8:22 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pfe
Earnings Release discussed at
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pfe
The adjusted earnings and revenue numbers were better than expected but were down Y-O-Y. One of Pfizer's main drugs, Lyrica, lost U.S. patent protection in July 2019 and that loss caused the Y-O-Y decline.
Press Release:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200428005274/en/PFIZER-REPORTS-FIRST-QUARTER-2020-RESULTS
I saw the early up but didn't think to "hurry" to trade (was on the cell, and I've never used it to trade).
DeleteThe adjustment down when the market opened surprised me, though so did the rise to begin with. INTC's retreating now but it did that 7% down turned into <1% on day of reporting, so who knows what PFE will do.
4% div on 5/7. Can it hold enough to make that wait worthwhile? Who knows. This is one odd market.
I was distracted by this article:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/harley-davidson-cuts-dividend-but-stock-gains-after-earnings-2020-04-28?mod=mw_quote_news
They cut div to nearly nothing. Got loans lined up and sales down 45%. And their stock rallied over 8%, now it's 11%.
That's too odd. Maybe I'm missing something but the article doesn't point to anything.
One thought is that a true bull market shift, while I haven't watched them before, I would assume is more orderly than this.
Several better than expected earnings reports released so far today are creating more enthusiasm.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-in-the-premarket-3m-caterpillar-pfizer-pepsico-merck-more.html
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract
2,908.25 +39.35 +1.37%
Last Updated: Apr 28, 2020 at 7:42 a.m. CDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sp%20500%20futures?mod=home-page
Of the reports released this morning, my largest $ exposure is to UBS:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/ubs-earnings-q1-2020.html
UBS Group AG
$10.36 +$0.58 +5.93%
Before Hours Volume: 34.8K
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ubs
Yesterday was the first day for small businesses to apply for loans under the Paycheck Protection Program after Congress provided more funds. The Small Business Administration's website crashed yesterday shortly after opening for new applications.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/27/846197794/small-business-loans-site-crashes-on-1st-day-of-reopening
It seems like banks are rallying on the opportunity to make these loans, in combo with less foreclosures likely to happen on the businesses they're already extended to.
DeletePfizer Inc. $37.70 -$0.48 -1.25%
ReplyDeleteLast Updated: Apr 28, 2020 at 10:01 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pfe
The pre-market price gain did not last long in the regular session.
"Better than expected earnings and revenues" and down "year-over-year in earnings and revenues", when occurring together, fail to generate much enthusiasm in me.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3565170-pfizer-eliquis-sales-up-29-guidance-affirmed
Other investors will focus on "better than expected" and ignore the Y-O-Y decline in earnings and revenues. So the price may recover during the day.
Corning Inc. (GLW)
ReplyDelete$22.02 +0.45 +2.08%
Last Updated: Apr 28, 2020 at 10:59 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/glw
I mentioned in a comment buying 50 GLW at $19.74 (4/16). The shares have now been sold at $22.28. I have not gotten around to discussing the purchase.
With small stock positions, I will not dwell long on whether to exit a position. That happened after reviewing GLW's earnings report this morning, which fell into the category "better than expected" with Y-O-Y declines in revenues and earnings.
The company actually reported a GAAP loss. Non-GAAP E.P.S. was reported at $.2.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corning-swings-to-loss-as-revenue-falls-2020-04-28?mod=mw_quote_news
The jumped a bit early this morning when I viewed the appropriate response to be negative rather than positive. I may or may not be right about that conclusion, but it is the only one that I have so I act upon it.
GLW does have some long term appeal but the reentry point will need to be below $19 before I will consider buying back that 50 share lot.
I will go ahead and discuss the trades in a subsequent post.
Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)
ReplyDelete$16.05 +$1.14 +7.65%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/good
GOOD reported after the close:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/04/28/2023653/0/en/Gladstone-Commercial-Corporation-Reports-Results-for-the-First-Quarter-Ended-March-31-2020.html
The results look okay to me.
Core FFO per share was reported at $.4 which was unchanged from the 2019 4th quarter. There were about 2M more shares outstanding in the first quarter. Under its ATM program, the company sold 1,316,700 common stock shares for net proceeds of $27.9 million during the quarter. I interpret "net" to mean after brokerage commissions. That would come to a net price average proceeds per share of $21.19.
I last discussed a purchase of the common shares at
Item # 3. G. Added 10 GOOD at $16.7; 10 at $16.4; 10 at $16; 10 at $15.7; 5 at $14.2; 5 at $13.6; 5 at $12.8 and 5 at $12.1; 2 at $11.4; 2 at 10.85; 2 at $9.5:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/04/bdnchn-fhn-gdo-good-maptx-mcdfx-mspra.html
I also recently discussed a purchase of GOOD's 7% equity preferred stock GOODM:
Item # 1.C.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/04/arcc-bif-cio-dirunca-brgpra-fnb-gnl.html
GOOD is also the subject of a SA article published on 4/27/20 that is not yet behind the SA paywall:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4340322-gladstone-commercial-fundamentally-outperforming-peers
I will sell my highest cost lot, other than lots bought with dividends, when I can do so profitably which is how I am managing risk now using the small ball trading rules.
The two highest cost lots was a 10 share purchase bought at $18.35 on 10/11/18 whose tax cost basis is at $17.26 as of 12/31/19. By selling at a profit, I am referring to the original cost basis unadjusted by ROC dividends. When so limited, and with a 1+ year holding period, I convert the ROC into a long term capital gain and the total return before taxes would be in excess of the dividends paid.
PFE's decline from last year must be getting written off as virus effect.
DeleteIt went down a little, but it's been waffling around.
I haven't gotten into Corning. PE of 21 seems kind of high, with earnings down.
Good looks interesting to get to know for over time, buy in opportunities.
I did sell 10 shares of GOOD at $18.4 today. This was my highest cost lot as mentioned above. The new average tax cost per share is $14.78. That number is unadjusted for ROC dividends made this year. The ROC adjustment will be made when the broker receives the ROC numbers from GOOD early next year.
DeleteI found positions as well in my Schwab and Vanguard taxable accounts and in two IRA accounts. I only have a vague memory of buying in those accounts which occurred during March. My memory from that month is just one big blur.
I do not not discuss my IRA trades but will discuss the other trades in my next post. The Schwab account has 20 shares at an average cost of $10.02. The Vanguard account has 15 shares at an average cost of $11.11.
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract
ReplyDelete2,907.25 +40.05 +1.40%
Last Updated: Apr 29, 2020 at 7:48 a.m. CDT
I would attribute the pop in pre-market to Gilead's claim that remdesvir met in primary endpoint in a Phase 3 trial in severely ill COVID-19 patients. Five days of treatment produced the same results as 10 days.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gileads-stock-halted-says-remdesivir-met-primary-endpoint-in-government-study-2020-04-29?mod=mw_latestnews
Gilead Sciences Inc.
PREMARKET $85.72 +$6.33 +8.05%
Last Updated: Apr 29, 2020 at 9:02 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GILD?mod=MW_story_quote
I'm tempted to do some selling. But I sold too early the other day. Now I'm back to hesitation mode.
DeleteThere's indicators of an end to all of this. Rotation into cyclicals & small caps. Crossing MAs and supports & 20 months. Breath upward. Still once all the positives are counted in,( and investors have had a chance to enjoy shaking off the complete doom picture,) the negatives will get considered once again.
I can't spot everyone in one side of the boat yet.
Something about the FED announcing is coming this afternoon too.
The news of young people getting strokes after recovery, seems to have disappeared.
Land: I am not disposed to chasing the market here. The news about Gilead's drug has bolstered the belief that everything will be fine soon. So the news is feeding that narrative.
DeleteThe trial results that have leaked out have not been consistent. The results released today were not part of a double blind trial. There was no placebo group so we don't know how the percentage who would have recovered from standard treatment during the same time period compared to those given with remdesivir. I thought it was odd that
"64.5% of the patients who received the shorter treatment were discharged, compared with 53.8% of the group who were treated for 10 days." So giving the drug for 10 days worked less well than for 5 days.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gilead-reports-positive-data-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html
Still, the overall indications are that the drug will help many patients recover when given early and before it becomes necessary to intubate them.
I am moving out on the risk scale with some bond purchases. I bought today 2 Ares Capital 3.625% SU bond maturing on 1/19/22 at 99.
http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C661409
The common stock has been moving up lately but is still at depressed levels.
Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC)
$12.89 +$ 0.61 +4.96%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/arcc
I recently discussed some small lot buys.
The sectors that were smashed the most have been showing the largest percentage gains this week, even several of the Hotel REITs are experiencing large percentage share gains off really depressed prices.
Regional bank stocks are continuing their charge up:
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
$40.20 +$ 2.62 +6.97%
Last Updated: Apr 29, 2020 at 1:06 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
Another beaten up sector performing better than SPX are the BDCs:
VanEck Vectors BDC Income ETF
$11.00 +$0.635 +6.13%
Last Updated: Apr 29, 2020 12:58 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/bizd
Gilead's drug has given the market more confidence in it's "V-shape, worst is behind, will be fine with no residual impacts to these companies' values" perspective.
DeleteRealistically it's a while to go before life on the ground is normal again.
Stocks trade on their own view of reality. Given that, does the rallying in KRE, BDCs, and other beaten up sectors.... imply that this market is starting the change in trend? (It can still go down & it should correct some from here) but is there a shift in mood that matters here?
I keep trying to figure out what to buy that can take advantage of this problem. I have tons of powder, 1/2 my investing funds, still in cash. I haven't spotted whatever it is that might be how to take advantage. Other than the 15% I put in on the way down, which includes at SPY over 300 early on. So, I'll do more looking... and waiting! (If I miss it all, and it goes to stable VIX pattern, then I'll put it in then.)
That's really interesting that the 10 day release was less than the 5day. I caught only the end of Fauci. I thought I'd heard this morning that it was with a control group, "gold standard" was added to the comment. Maybe the anchor was misinformed or it was another study still to come out. Still, nice to have something around that makes an impact. I won't risk getting sick though.
Five mins to a "fed decision." I don't think Fed's actually deciding anything. Just going to say some nice things, and re-commit to the programs they had already. Should add to the rally today.
Oh, there was question of whether Fed would change rates. They're leaving it the same. I didn't think this was at all a question.
DeleteLand: The FED is not going to change the FF range which is 0-.25%. That range will be in effect through this year and probably all or most of next year.
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/fed-decision-fed-pledges-to-keep-rates-near-zero-until-full-employment-inflation-come-back.html
The CME FedWatch tool predicts that the current range will be in effect through the May 2021 meeting, which is as far as it currently goes in time.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Note there is a zero probability of a negative range. By March 2021, the odds are currently 90.2% that the FF will be zero to .25%, which is where it is today, a 9.6% possibility of a .25 hike to a .25% to .5% range and .2% for a .5% hike. I would just assume for now that the current range will be in effect through at least mid-2021.
I do not foresee the FED taking the federal funds rate below zero. Several other central banks do have negative benchmark rates.
Land: The Gilead study "involved 397 patients with severe cases of Covid-19. The severe study is “single-arm,” meaning it did not evaluate the antiviral drug against a control group of patients who didn’t receive the drug."
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gilead-reports-positive-data-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html
There is another trial by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases which Gilead said met its primary endpoint. Gilead said earlier today that this trial met its primary endpoint. This trial had a control group.
The preliminary results were just released. The number of patients was larger at 1063.
"Preliminary results indicate that patients who received remdesivir had a 31% faster time to recovery than those who received placebo (p<0.001). Specifically, the median time to recovery was 11 days for patients treated with remdesivir compared with 15 days for those who received placebo. Results also suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8.0% for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the placebo group (p=0.059)."
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19
Thanks!!
DeleteReleased on the same date. That's so very coincidental.
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteWhile S&P500 is still down about 13% from its 52-wk high SDS is testing its 52-wk low today. That just shows the nature of a decaying leveraged inverse index product.
Y2000: Useful info!
DeleteY: The S & P 500 closed at 3,320.78 on 12/31/19, and at 2,939.51 yesterday, or a 8.77% decline. If SDS was a perfect hedge, it would have been up 17.54% over the same period.
Deletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC
SDS closed yesterday at $22.48 and at $24.86 on 12/31/19 or a 9.57% decline.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SDS/history?p=SDS
A short of SPY would have produced a 8.9% gain without making an adjustment for the dividends paid. SPY closed yesterday at $293.21 and at $321.86 on 12/31/19.
The tracking problem of the double shorts make them poor hedges as the holding period expands.
If I had a margin account, I would just short a long ETF as a hedge. Those who are familiar with option tradings could look at that alternative. I do not trade options or futures and have only cash accounts.
I did buy 2 SDS and TWM shares yesterday. The TWM hedge was started on Tuesday with only 7 shares purchased to date. I attempt to deal with the tracking problem, at least to some decree, through buying in small lots, averaging down, and buying most of the time on big up days. The Russell 2000 has been moving up sharply earlier this week. I will only start buying when I am very uncomfortable, as now, with the enthusiasm being expressed in price movements.
"" but is there a shift in mood that matters here?""
ReplyDeleteBy the way I meant that as a question to you. Not rhetorical. If you have an opinion.
Apparently there were two studies that came out today. To go with your hesitation, one of them was not supposed to be released for a month. They're saying because results were so positive they have to stop the trial and let the placebo group know. While that's true of studies, this seems a little funny. Its benefit is it shortens the time this time they're saying from 15 days to 11 days. There's a indication that might improve survival slightly but that was not statistically significant. This was with a control group. So that was what MSNBC just announced.
I still have to catch with the other study was, which didn't have a control group.
Land: There is a 180 decree turn in the Stock Jock's mood compared to late March. Bad economic news is not going to cause investors to reassess their bullish forecast.
DeleteIt is is sort of like a person taking a fall on a hard surface, causing some significant bleeding, pain and a muscle tear, but the X-Ray shows nothing was broken.
That analogy just popped into my head.
A few years back, I was moving down 2 steps from the recreation room, with my shoe going way over the first step, which caused me to fall. Something snapped in my left foot, which was swollen when I first looked at it, with one or more torn muscles, and a lot of pain. There were no broken bones. The Doctor gave me a boot to wear and told me go home. Everything was fine in a couple of weeks.
The Stock Jocks are ignoring the bad economic news, looking through it as if does not even exist.
The sectors that were hit the worse in March were pricing something similar to the 2008 financial Armageddon. It may have started to seem incongruous to price that scenario when the Stock Jocks had formed a consensus opinion that no serious and permanent injury was going to flow from the pandemic. So when a stock is down 50% to 70% based on a disaster happening in the future, which was the case for the regional banks, there will be a strong bounce back rally when the doom and gloom is lifted some as new information is digested that calls that scenario into question.
I like that sprained or pulled ankle analogy.
DeleteThey're so relieved that the virus and oil wasn't going to go without a flood of money for *part* of it, that they decided, as you put it, no permanent damage will happen from the virus.
I'm still finding a disconnect. For how incredibly negative and horrible images of depression forever that pundit investors & articles were painting, the market didn't go down enough. They were thinking broken ankle, messed up forever, and pricing it at prices that still indicated eventual recovery for most sectors.
The other is how the market practically reaches the conclusion that their sprained ankle has given them potential bionic abilities, with an inevitable healing with no possibility of a future tripping.
The really hard disconnect this time round is that the market is buying with so much upbeat, while the people, media, everyone I talk to is stressed out, worried, even having vivid worried dreams (it's a thing now, with articles about it.) I suppose the bottom's like that on disconnect. But this bottom is so close to the top so quickly that it really contrasts.
I have concluded that I need to do more to read (or more accurately, accept) the signals of the market's mood, and bet accordingly, not according to any thoughts that I consider practical.
I may get some KRE here, small position. It's chasing. But the market seems to want to do that. I don't own any banks. Would be fun to.
Land: When I read the market's tea leaves, I am not agreeing or disagreeing with the signal being sent by price and the direction of price movements. I am simply forming an opinion about what future scenario fits the price signal.
DeleteMy personal opinion is that the Stock Jocks are probably underestimating the extent of the economic downturn and overestimating the speed and strength of a recovery. If that proves prescient, then at least some significant part of the recent price surge will be taken back at some point before summer's end.
So, given that opinion, I am doing some light paring of positions purchased last month.
Thanks for the explanations. Makes sense out of things.
DeleteThe blue skies scenario received support today from better than expected earnings and positive results from ongoing trials of Gilead's drug which does speed recovery for many COVID-19 patients. Two studies were released today, as I discussed in prior comments. The one that counts IMO was conducted by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases which I referenced in a prior comment. There were still deaths for patients receiving remdesivir (8% mortality) vs. 11.6% for the placebo group. The median recovery time for patients receiving the drug was 11 days compared to 15 days for the placebo group.
ReplyDeleteOn the earnings front, I would emphasize that the really bad quarter will the current one. While shutdowns did start in late March, most of the quarter was already booked before there was any adverse impact on U.S. businesses.
Microsoft's 1st quarter results were not impacted by the pandemic:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/microsoft-tops-10-billion-in-earnings-beating-even-pre-coronavirus-expectations-2020-04-29?mod=home-page
In my earlier comment noting the sell of 10 GOOD shares at $18.4 (Fidelity account), there was an Old Geezer brain malfunction in the simple task of counting the number of shares held in my Vanguard taxable account. You would think that I could add a few numbers and arrive at the correct total, but that was not the case. I own 16 GOOD shares in that account, not 15, and my average cost per share is consequently lower at $10.42.
I like my calculator. It is much better at math than I am.
DeleteLand: A calculator may not help when the brain ages to mush.
DeleteI had to add the following share numbers:
GOOD Position Vanguard Taxable
10 at $11.07
2 at $10
1 at $9.67
2 at $9.3
1 at $8.73
I am hoping that Intel is working on a processor that can be implanted in the brain.
Been pleased to see Ameritrade stops order entries that it deems unlikely. If not, yesterday I've have bought 9 shares of TCRD (price around $5) for $114.80 that I meant for TXN.
DeleteMy writing glitches also give away how much I need an intel processor for the brain. So I'm all ready for this invention.
By the time the bad earnings news comes out next quarter, will have started to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
ReplyDeleteSo unless something actually newly bad comes up, such as discovering that it's possible to get re-infected in short order, it seems like the markets not going to have reason to come back down into a real crash mode again.
The political news might start to shift things. For now it's taking a backseat.
I discussed in this post the use of a pulse oximeter which detects oxygen saturation levels. Those who are infected with COVID-19 will develop low levels of oxygen before experiencing shortness of breath. The normal oxygen saturation is 94% to 100% at sea level.
ReplyDeleteI bought Zacurate 500BL which was delivered today. The cost was about $26 and is currently unavailable at Amazon.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B06Y2FFQB9/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o04_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
The product appears to work. A reading for my pulse rate and oxygen level was displayed within 10 seconds. The oxygen saturation level was 95%.
So Doctor Southgent, who is not as versed in medical science as Doctor Don who said today that he was leading the U.S. Covid-19 vaccine effort, has concluded that the Old Geezer does not have an infection, a conclusion supported by the absence of symptoms, hyper self-protection measures, and normal oxygen saturation.
I learned of oximeters first time from the NYTimes the other day, and your comment.
DeleteLooked around and see no quality meters for sale.
I'd like sometime to get one. I have unrelated stuff that shows up when I'm very tired and wonder if it's related to oxygen levels. For covid, I'll have to email around if I have symptoms and want to borrow one. I assume there are many people with one ... since they have flown out of the stores.
Doctor Don is leading the vaccine effort? I'm revising my estimate from late fall to never (i.e. as soon as he apologizes for telling a non-truth.)
Land: Doctor Don says he is in charge of the vaccine effort.
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-trump-says-he-is-in-charge-of-work-to-produce-a-vaccine.html
He fired Dr. Rick Bright who was in charge of coordinating the U.S. effort. Dr. Bright made the mistake of expressing reservations about Doctor Don's miracle drug hydroxychloroquine.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/coronavirus-treatment-vaccine-doctor-says-worry-about-trump-idea-led-to-ouster.html
Dr. Bright did not have Dr. Don's qualifications, since Bright has a Ph.D. in immunology and virology from Emory University and has spent his entire adult career in vaccine development.
He is the former recipient of the prestigious Charles C. Shepard Science Award for Scientific Excellence.
https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-executive-receives-cdc-science-award
It is too bad that Dr. Bright does not have the extraordinary qualifications of Trump. The ability to lie to the virus is essential at stopping it's spread and getting it instead to adulate to the center of the known universe, Trump, endlessly.
DeleteTo get div on a stock on day of record, when during that day do you need to hold it?
ReplyDelete- At 4pm bell?
- At 8pm close of extended day?
- Any time during the day so can buy and still sell in the middle of that day and still get the div? (That'd make no sense to allow.)
I hold sold that 9 shares of TXN for $115.43 a few days ago when it "got even."
I just bought them back for $115.45. Because
1) I want that 4% div, ex-div is 5/1
2) Now that it's spent time over $116, I have more confidence I can get out again. (Earnings were last week.)
If I want to get out again, and still get the div, when is the earliest I can sell for an ex-div of 5/1?
Offer after hours was $116 and up. I put in the $115.45 to see if it's get caught and it did right away. Surprised.
I've wondered about that time limit before. I remember investopedia never answered it clearly.
Land: I do not trade in extended hours.
DeleteIf you bought TXN before the closing bell today, and owned the shares tomorrow when the market opened, you would be entitled to the quarterly dividend that goes ex dividend on 5/1. If you sold at any time today, you would not receive the dividend.
It is my understanding that the purchase of the stock in extended hours today would qualify for receiving the dividend. However, that statement is based on my memory rather than any research.
It would be logical that an owner could sell the stock in pre-market tomorrow morning and receive the dividend.
It would also be logical to say that the day before the ex dividend date would include at any time during that day.
TXN declined today by more than the amount of the dividend so I do not view a purchase as buying a tax event.
That's all logical.
DeleteMay ask my broker. I need to write anyway since once again they've got a stock's earnings date incorrect. PPL as 4/30, not 5/8.
It did decline a lot today. It's been in this range. Div is creating a taxable event. So because it declined, it equals out on that, I assume is the point.
I also bought 5 WMT at 123.75 today. I had an open order, was doing something else and it filled at higher than what I'd have used if I'd been watching the market decline. Same lot that I sold at 127. So not a lot to gripe about.
I'm really curious to see if the market goes up or down tomorrow. Is this the start of the downturn... or will the enthusiasm and chart trend of up, continue?? Feels like a soap opera.
If up, I'll sell a little SPY & DOW. If down, I'll watch.
Land: I eliminated a few positions today where the stock was bought last month and I was not going to discuss the purchase.
DeleteI suspect that the market hit a plateau this week and will start to trend down due in large part to profit taking. That is my gut feeling. I would add an important caveat. Unlike Donald's gut, mine is not omnipotent, nor is it the repository of all knowledge known today or will ever be known in the universe until the end of days.
So far there is a negative reaction to the earnings released by Amazon and Apple, and that is important if it carries over to tomorrow and thereafter.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-says-it-may-lose-money-while-spending-on-covid-19-response-stock-sinks-in-late-trading-2020-04-30?mod=mw_quote_news
However, the stocks are only giving back a little more in after hours trading than they gained during regular hours.
Buying a Tax Event: When the stock is held in a taxable account, the dividend payment is taxed and the price is adjusted by the amount of the dividend on the ex dividend date.
So if one bought 100 shares of a $50 for a stock with a $.50 per share quarterly dividend, and the purchase was made the day prior to the ex dividend date, the dividend of $50 would be taxed, either as a qualified or non-qualified dividend, and the share price would be adjusted down to $49.5 on the ex dividend date before trading opens. The tax on the dividend reduces the after tax return from that payment. A purchase on the next day at $49.5 would actually be better than buying at $50 and paying a tax on the dividend amount. If the price declined the next day below the adjusted $49.5 price, then the return advantage for waiting is even better.
The price could rise the next day by more than the dividend amount on the ex dividend date, which would also eliminate the drag from the tax event, as would buying the day before when the stock is down by more than the dividend amount + the amount of the dividend lost to taxes (say 15% for a qualified dividend or $.575, a price below $49.425 which is the theoretical breakeven point)
Taxable event - the div is taxable in year received. The drop in price creates a lower basis, so is taxable but possibly at long term rates, and not until the shares are sold.
DeleteBuying for div into raising price, compensates for the drag.
Or you can buy like I did into a drop, and just scrunch up your forehead the next day. I got the div but lost the chance to be out of the stock for this next leg down. However, since it came up to this price, I have more confidence that I will see this price again sometime in the next 5 years. (I have 7 left. Put in a sell order afterhours & it partly filled; sold 2).
I appear to have missed the spot to sell some indices off the top, which was yesterday.
DeleteActually I think I'll go look and sell a little today. Market could come up and never revisit here. But CNBC's talking now about forclosures. Every stock I have dropped on earnings reports, even though the market climbed - and importantly these weren't the bad reports of Q2.
So if I sell, I have to just sit tight if the market rises again before it falls some more.
I should have sold some individuals that aren't strong. It's so hard to sell at steep losses but in the end it's more profitable to move the money. Even for up-individuals, it's hard to believe moves are coming and pick a spot and sell.
---
While on technicals it was time to sell off, but I'm not sure it would have done much and reversed here.
Good to know it was Amazon and Apple. I haven't listened yet but appears Amazon is "in trouble for lying."
Those weren't enough - is my sense.
It really appears to be Trump causing this. Totally illogical. He doesn't like his poll numbers for -- election. So he's selling his "it's china's fault soundbite." Hence he picked the point of the market ready to and already starting to reverse to add fuel to that with his tariff chatter, when the economy is his supposed strong push for his -- uhm, election. Bite himself?
He didn't notice the market went down during his tariff fiasco in Dec 2018? Am I missing how successful he'll be with this plan, or is he losing it even on his own best skill (marketing himself through manipulation.)?
----
I sold 5 shares WMT at 127.09, then rebought WMT 122.70. So today I sold with an order (not while watching) for 122.80.
I sold TXN at 115.43, then bought TXN back at 115.45 and tried to sell later in the day at 115.35.
I left IWM alone. I spent time thinking about PFE and INTC and Garmin and SOXX.
It reminds me of those occasions when in the dollar store I take something off the shelf and put it back and off and back again.
My timing's been backwards here. Buying back and selling when I should have left success alone. (At least at relatively small amounts. $800 isn't nothing, but in the bigger picture...)
I'm glad a weekend is coming. Hopefully I''ll re-set a little.
I was beginning to get ancy on the raising market. It's interesting to notice, that this was my reaction.
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I am starting to wonder if this is a place to get into Amazon. 6% down. Will it go down enough when the rest of the market does to give another better opportunity.
I'd like to own some of the FAANGS and don't.
Also dawned that during this updraft, one could buy bonds to get ready for the downside. Did bond prices go down with this rally, so that they were reasonable buys? Or did they not move in opposite enough to be an option. (This ignores that early on there was all the wonky you described that were actual good entry points.)
Land: AMZN is not the kind of stock I buy. I did start a small ball buy program on BRKB and am up to 2 shares. I generally shy away from stocks that do not pay dividends and neither AMZN or BRKB pay now, nor do I anticipate that they will start in my remaining lifespan.
DeleteToday, the investors were spooked by Trump's threat to renew the tariff war with China.
As I mentioned in a prior comment, my gut was telling me that the major indexes hit their high water marks earlier this week with a slide likely until profit taking subsides. My general opinion is, as stated earlier, that investors are underestimating the depth and duration of the current decline as well as the timing, speed and strength of a recovery. If a sufficient number of investors come around to that opinion, based on future events, then the market will go down significantly from today's close.
I am concerned about the large number of dividend eliminations and reductions which is one reason to under senior unsecured and secured debt.
Even investment grade corporate bonds will go down in price when investors perceive credit risks becoming more enhanced. That happened in March in a big way. I am not yet seeing that develop in prices.
Investment grade corporate bond prices rose during the stock rally since credit risk concerns were alleviated by the blue sky scenario consensus reflected in the stock market surge. So those bond were running up in value with stocks.
If there is a major sentiment shift in Stock Jocks prediction about the near future, resulting in a substantial slide in stock market prices, the BBB type credits will likely follow, though not in the same percentage declines, more like down 5% to 10% in price with SPX down 20%. The A or better credits would generally fall less with that kind of stock market decline. The reason has to do with perceived credit risks during a recession and the reassessment of the near future causing increased volatility in stocks with a strong downside move.
The lack of div on Amazon has always had me hesitate. But I don't own MSFT or Apple either.
DeleteUseful to know how the bond movements work.
Bonds are a whole other area.
"best month for stocks since 1987"
ReplyDeleteThat is the dumbest sounding soundbite. That strongly points to a bear market rally.
Useful point - junk bond ratings are higher than usual, because prior solid companies are getting downgraded into junk range.
Land: There are an unusually large number of companies who are losing their investment grade ratings with downgrades into junk territory.
DeleteThere are at least two ETFs that will buy those bonds when the debt is downgraded to junk from investment grade. An example would Occidental's debt.
iShares Fallen Angels USD Bond ETF (FALN)
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/faln
VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF (ANGL)
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/angl
There is generally a lot of selling when that happens since many owners are not permitted to own junk rated bonds.
The sponsor's website for ANGL contains this statement:
"We expect $250-300bn of fallen angels this year, which would make 2020 the biggest year on record (by far). Since the end of February, there has been approximately $80 billion of estimated volume, including Ford, Occidental Petroleum, Delta Airlines, and Western Midstream. ..With this oncoming wave of downgrades, we expect to see a similar technical pattern of forced selling as we have historically."
https://www.vaneck.com/etf/income/angl/overview/
I never heard of fallen angel (stocks),
DeleteIf lots of selling by funds with requirements not to hold junk, then timing matters to wait till it's shaken out a bit?
I'm not so sure I want to own bonds of companies that lost their ratings. Maybe collectively is a safer way. Or a specific company that there's reason to think they survive.
Talking downgrades, I own Shell. That's really taken a beating since 2/3s cutting it's div.. I'm holding for now. Hoping it becomes a deep value play - back to even someday. Not defunct.
Land: I was referring to fallen angel bonds, meaning those that fall into junk territory from investment grade ratings.
DeleteThe downgrades are generally justified since operating conditions have worsened for companies with too much leverage like Occidental. If there is a robust recovery starting in the second half, and conditions improve for those companies (e.g. much higher energy prices for OXY), then the bonds can work, but the downside is sometimes bankruptcy too.
The phrase could be applied to blue chip stocks, like Royal Dutch Shell, that have fallen on hard times.
The RDS dividend slash was a positive for bond owners. Arguably, it was done to protect the high quality rating, currently at Aa2. The 2.375% Shell SU maturing in 2022 is still selling above par value, closing today at 102.99.
http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C580093&symbol=RDS3889950
While Shell's dividend slash was understandable under the circumstances, the company could have waited awhile to determine how long adverse conditions would continue.
I am scheduled to discuss Royal Dutch in a 5/23/20 post. Given the large number of transactions during March, I am way behind in discussing common stock purchases. I will be discussing some RDS/B adds prior to the dividend cut in my Schwab account, and the profitable elimination of 5 and 9 share positions in my Vanguard and Fidelity taxable accounts after the dividend slash. I added the sell discussion yesterday as I recall. I sold those shares at $32 and 32+. This was the first cut in Shell's dividend since WWII.
Bonds....
DeleteI was picturing bonds but because they're ETFs I lump them in with stocks. Good if I start talking about them as bonds.
They have a bit of the falling knife feel.
I'm really shocked to see Shell cut div so much. I get why. It's such a drastic statement though. I wondered too why they picked now instead of waiting. Div is May 14. Maybe wanted to wrap it into the ER to seem more genuine than waiting 1 1/2 weeks after ERs to announce. Does make one wonder what they know about the upcoming economic & oil news.
I hope they don't go bankrupt. Though I suppose they have less chance than CVX & TOT that I own that haven't cut div.
How did you sell profitable after the div slash? Were these really, really old purchases? (Or during the March dip)?
Land: I suspect that Shell has an economic forecast that has energy prices depressed for an extended period. That would explain why a slash was thought to be necessary now in order to protect their bond ratings. Cutting the dividend was a drastic action given this company's long history of either maintaining the dividend or increasing it Y-O-Y. So something had to significantly scare management and the Board about the likely future scenario for Shell's businesses.
DeleteSouth Gent,
ReplyDeleteHere is a winner in this pandemic:
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman posted an 11% gain in March after turning $27 million into $2.6 billion with coronavirus bets
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bill-ackman-pershing-square-11-percent-gain-coronavirus-3-billion-2020-4-1029058360
"...Ackman last month denied deliberately trying to scare investors to help his hedges, arguing that he was up front about Pershing Square's strategy...."
I happened to have my CNBC on for his interview and was seriously wondering why he was so unbecomingly emotional during the interview and how he could be so emotional to be such a successful hedge fund manager. Now it seems it was only a show and CNBC was his stage.
My logic that IWM would sink more on decline because it gained more & for particular stimulus reasons, seems to have panned out. It's below the point that I "took profits off the top."
ReplyDeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/05/bhb-btz-dgro-ebayl-eprprc-good-hta-ibm.html