Economy:
JPMorgan now sees economy contracting by 40%, in the second quarter and unemployment reaching 20%
Powell expects ‘robust’ recovery once coronavirus is under control - MarketWatch
Another 6.6M Americans file for unemployment benefits as layoffs show no letup
Department of Labor News Release on initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending 4/4/20
Calculated Risk: University of Michigan: Largest Decline on Record for Consumer Sentiment
JPMorgan now sees economy contracting by 40%, in the second quarter and unemployment reaching 20%
Powell expects ‘robust’ recovery once coronavirus is under control - MarketWatch
Another 6.6M Americans file for unemployment benefits as layoffs show no letup
Department of Labor News Release on initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending 4/4/20
Calculated Risk: University of Michigan: Largest Decline on Record for Consumer Sentiment
Private and government systems and services are simply inadequate to quickly deal with the deluge of unemployment claims and loan requests under the recently passed Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act ("CARES"). Thousands of applicants, zero loans: Trump's small businesses lending program is a failure to launch (4/4/20).
Frustration mounts on Main Street as entrepreneurs wait on banks and SBA for much-needed funding (4/9/20 article)
The FED has launched a $600 billion separate loan facility for small and mid-size businesses. Federal Reserve takes additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy Those loans will by for 4 years with interest payments deferred for 1 year. Banks will originate the loan, retaining 5% and selling the remainder to the Fed's credit facility. Fed announces new lending plans it says will provide $2.3 trillion in support for economy - MarketWatch That is an important development and more important IMO than the FED's relaunch of QE and return to ZIRP.
Frustration mounts on Main Street as entrepreneurs wait on banks and SBA for much-needed funding (4/9/20 article)
The FED has launched a $600 billion separate loan facility for small and mid-size businesses. Federal Reserve takes additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy Those loans will by for 4 years with interest payments deferred for 1 year. Banks will originate the loan, retaining 5% and selling the remainder to the Fed's credit facility. Fed announces new lending plans it says will provide $2.3 trillion in support for economy - MarketWatch That is an important development and more important IMO than the FED's relaunch of QE and return to ZIRP.
US bank group warns of 'massive' delays
U.K. consumer confidence plummets amid lockdown - MarketWatch
WHO says the coronavirus can spread one to three days before symptoms start
This part of Paycheck Protection Program could reduce forgivable loans
Mortgage forbearance requests jump nearly 2,000%
The CEO who built Cisco into a powerhouse has a sobering coronavirus diagnosis: At least nine months of economic pain - MarketWatch
European stocks fall on grim economic forecasts and EU failure to agree a pandemic recovery plan - MarketWatch (4/8/20) The Banc of France predicted a 6% slump in that nation's first quarter GDP. Bank of France sees 6% GDP contraction in Q1 - MarketWatch
German economy forecast to slump 4.2% this year-MarketWatch (joint forecast of "5 leading German institutes."
Toyota extends production suspension at US plants through 5/1/20 - ABC News
Airlines and TSA report 96% drop in air travel
About 80% of hotel rooms in the US are empty amid the coronavirus pandemic, new data says
U.K. consumer confidence plummets amid lockdown - MarketWatch
WHO says the coronavirus can spread one to three days before symptoms start
This part of Paycheck Protection Program could reduce forgivable loans
Mortgage forbearance requests jump nearly 2,000%
The CEO who built Cisco into a powerhouse has a sobering coronavirus diagnosis: At least nine months of economic pain - MarketWatch
European stocks fall on grim economic forecasts and EU failure to agree a pandemic recovery plan - MarketWatch (4/8/20) The Banc of France predicted a 6% slump in that nation's first quarter GDP. Bank of France sees 6% GDP contraction in Q1 - MarketWatch
German economy forecast to slump 4.2% this year-MarketWatch (joint forecast of "5 leading German institutes."
Toyota extends production suspension at US plants through 5/1/20 - ABC News
Airlines and TSA report 96% drop in air travel
About 80% of hotel rooms in the US are empty amid the coronavirus pandemic, new data says
New round of stimulus talks faces GOP roadblock I am not sure why Congress is considering adding more stimulus now when (1) no one knows how long there will be shut downs impacting most of the country; and (2) until the existing stimulus is actually delivered to the intended recipients and more is needed to prevent dire and potentially irreversible financial consequences. Discussing what will be in another stimulus plan now, when and if needed, is fine.
States like Illinois, Arizona, Michigan Oregon as well as cities brace for economic reckoning from coronavirus - The Washington Post The federal aid is going mostly to businesses and individuals.
Trump says he's not going to reopen economy 'until we know this country is going to be healthy'
Economists say US in short deep recession, but consumers expected to keep spending despite job losses This is the result of a survey that included 45 economists and was conducted by the National Association for Business Economics. Those economists are predicting that consumer spending will remain positive through the recession. Their consensus forecast is for a +.8% PCE increase during this quarter. I doubt that will be the case. Consumer spending on food will increase since dining out is probably down over 90%. Both are included in personal consumption expenditures. Purchases of retail merchandise other than food will plummet. There will also be less spending on personal services. Their consensus forecast for job losses this month is 4.8M which IMO is a ridiculously low estimate.
++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Jamie Dimon details JPMorgan strength in annual letter, says US strong (Dimon: “We don’t know exactly what the future will hold — but at a minimum, we assume that it will include a bad recession combined with some kind of financial stress similar to the global financial crisis of 2008.”)
Stock market won’t hit coronavirus lows until these 3 criteria are met, says Goldman Sachs - MarketWatch
Goldman analyst who predicted the coronavirus would kill the bull market says ‘risk to the downside is greater’ despite Dow’s recent rally - MarketWatch
In an unusual moment, the stock market's ability to sniff out the future is severely impaired
Goldman analyst who predicted the coronavirus would kill the bull market says ‘risk to the downside is greater’ despite Dow’s recent rally - MarketWatch
In an unusual moment, the stock market's ability to sniff out the future is severely impaired
‘The worst is behind us’ — with the most attractive risk-reward in years, it is time to buy stocks, Morgan Stanley says - MarketWatch I am not as clairvoyant as brokerage firms. The worst major stock average declines may be behind us with the lows hit last month, but that conclusion is more speculation than fact. I do not comprehend the meaning of the word "years" as used by MS, since SPX is currently above the December 2018 low and the word "years" indicates at least 2 full years at a minimum.
It remains to be seen how investors will react to a parade of earnings news like this warning from Starbucks. Starbucks sees 47% drop in second-quarter earnings on coronavirus hit
Jeff Saut says market bottom in, sees new S&P 500 record in 2020
The bullish case for stocks with major averages already up more than 20% from the lows
Waiting for a stock-market bottom is ‘folly,’ says billionaire Howard Marks: ‘If something’s cheap…you should buy’ - MarketWatch
AGNC Investment cuts dividend by 25%; book value down 23% YTD (NASDAQ:AGNC) | Seeking Alpha Like other MREITs, AGNC has been reducing its dividends for years. When I last eliminated AGNC, I mentioned then that I would not be buying again. Item # 4 Sold 50+ AGNC at $$17.83+ (12/26/18 Post)("I am going to quit while I am ahead on this MREIT.")
Realty Income Announces First Quarter 2020 Earnings Release Date, Draws $1.20 Billion On Revolving Credit Facility, And Withdraws 2020 Guidance
Stocks will revisit their coronavirus crash low, and here’s when to expect it - MarketWatch This is an opinion article written by Mark Hulbert who argues that the retest will come next August.
++++++
Portfolio Management:
I mentioned above the MS opinion that the risk-reward is the most attractive in years and that firm's recommendation to buy stocks. I do not subscribe to that opinion.
In my view, the S & P 500 may now be in a fair value range with no pandemic having come into existence, with economies continuing to limp along, or moving into a recession (several European countries), as they were prior to the pandemic.
I did add to my stock allocation last month during the meltdown.
My normal approach is to buy into volatility spikes which I have been doing since the volatility event started on 2/24/20.
CBOE Volatility Index-St. Louis Fed
In part, I am playing the possibility that the S & P 500 bottomed in the 2150-2200 range and that a V shape recovery will take baby steps during the current quarter and will be in full motion no later than the third.
There is certainly no assurance that this will happen. And I am very suspicious of the claim that the economy will be roaring in the second half, as opposed to more subdued growth. The possibility that a recession will continue into the third quarter can not be dismissed now IMO.
And, I view the recent robust rally to be overdone, taking as a given a future scenario that is still in doubt.
My current best guess is that the odds are less than 50/50 that the future will unfold in that manner currently being predicted by the Stock Jocks, but the probability that it will is not immaterial.
Another consideration is the probability that investors will have major panic episodes over the next several weeks.
As first quarter earnings reports are released this month, there will be an abundance of negative news. And, companies are going to be very circumspect in seeing "light at the end of the tunnel". Most will continue refusing to provide 2020 guidance or to engage in positive spin about the next quarter or two.
U.S. economic data will be horrific for the second quarter.
Investors will reconsider their hopes that the corner has been turned and nothing but blue skies lie dead ahead.
A retest of the March lows is possible, particularly if the current recessions continues into the second half.
It is also possible that an attempt to restart the economy in May will result in a second major wave of infections. Scientists now believe that the virus will survive in more warm and humid conditions. Warm weather is unlikely to stop coronavirus, National Academies finds - The Washington Post; Summer Heat May Not Diminish Coronavirus Strength - The New York Times
The NYT obtained a copy of predictions made by Homeland Security if stay-at-home restrictions are lifted on 4/30. There would be another spike in infections during the summer, bringing the total death number close to 200,000 even with schools remaining closed until summer and 25% of the workforce continuing to work at home. Coronavirus Cases in the US: Live Updates
While I increased my stock allocation last month, I am now in a net selling mode though the selling is a mere trickle currently. I have also restarted a trickle of double short ETF purchases as hedges that were eliminated last month during the meltdown.
Some stock positions bought in March have already been eliminated and will not be discussed in a post.
I will not be discussing any of the stock purchases made in my Roth IRA accounts and less than 50% of the purchases overall.
It will be late May or early June before I finish discussing less than 50% of the stock purchases already made.
There were several days in March when I hit 100 filled orders per day.
Most of the proceeds from maturing bonds, CDs and treasury bills will be used to purchase either investment grade corporate bonds (with the focus on short maturities) or kept in a money market account.
Third Party Pricing Services for Bonds:
For anyone just starting out buying individual bonds, I want to emphasize that the bond prices shown in your account are not based on the last trade
Instead, brokers use third party pricing services to provide lower than fair market values.
The third party prices will almost invariably below the fair market value, so the only conclusion that I can reasonably reach is that is done purposely.
The why is speculative but may have something to do with the lack of liquidity when there is a margin call and bonds have to be sold quickly to meet the margin call.
In a 3/19 comment, I mentioned buying 10 American Electric Power 2.95% SU bonds maturing on 12/15/22. The total cost was at 96.828. I will discuss that purchase in my next post.
The last last trade was at 102.537.
Those bonds were purchased in my Schwab account. This bond was last priced by the third party service used by that broker at 101.2061.
All of the trades for several days have been above par value.
I also own 2 bonds in my Fidelity account: Item # 3.B Bought 1 American Electric Power 2.95% SU Bonds Maturing on 12/15/22 at a TC of 98.716 (1/30/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 1 at a TC of 98.613 (4/9/18 Post)
Apparently several days of trades above 100 caused the third party service used by Fidelity, easily the most inaccurate one among my brokers, to take the price off 97, but not enough days and trades above par to actually take the price to or over 100 that would at least be closer to reality.
The last price for this same bond priced at 101.2061 in my Schwab account was 99.605 by the Fidelity pricing service:
At least that third party service is inching closer to the bond's fair market value.
Value of 10 Bonds:
Last Trade: $10,253.70
Schwab Price: $10,120.61
Fidelity Price: $ 9,960.5
Last Trade vs. Fidelity $ Difference: $293.20
It is just important to keep in mind that the third party prices most likely do not reflect the prices that bonds can be bought or sold.
BDCs and Regional Banks: I have taken hits in both sectors where I owned a position prior to pandemic and started small ball purchases too soon in March.
These two sectors were among the hardest hit during the March stock plunge.
All or virtually all stocks that I own in those sectors declined by over 50%.
The common thread was rational concerns about credit defaults during the deep recession that the nation is now experiencing.
The Feds announced last Friday that it would be loaning money directly to small and medium size businesses, with the banks dishing out FED's money and keeping 5% of the loan. Interest payments on the loans will be deferred for one year. Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve takes additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy
Small and mid sized businesses are the primary recipients of bank and BDC commercial loans. The substantial rally in their stocks last Thursday was probably linked to the FED coming to the aid of their loan customers.
Closing Prices Last Trading Day:
KRE $37.38 +$2.74 +7.91%: SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
BIZD $10.53 +$0.94 +9.86%: VanEck Vectors BDC Income ETF
The S & P 500 was up 1.45%.
BDCs are an unfavored asset class for me. I view them as risky even during an economic expansion period. I consequently keep my overall exposure to far less than minimal amounts and trade them frequently to harvest gains. They are now properly classified as very high risk IMO due to the ongoing shutdowns and recession.
Regional banks are being priced incorrectly based on the scenario where there is a rapid economic recovery in the second half and small business bankruptcies can be mitigated by the fiscal and monetary policies that are now in place. On the other hand, most are probably overpriced with a continuation of depressionary conditions into the third quarter with a slow and painful recovery thereafter. So, tell me what the future holds, and I will be better able to allocate my money now.
++++++
Wisconsin Republicans:
Wisconsin Republicans, who control the state legislature and want to maintain control over the state Supreme Court, refused to postpone an election last Tuesday.
When the newly elected Democrat governor tried to postpone the election until June, when conditions are likely to be more safe than now, the republicans challenged his decision in courts. The republican majorities in the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the U.S. Supreme Court of course voted in favor of the republican politicians.
It was not important to the republicans that people would be risking their health and even lives by voting.
What was important was a political calculation that they had a better chance to hold onto a narrow 5 to 4 majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court by proceeding with the election with limited voter turnout. Why Wisconsin Republicans Insisted on an Election in a Pandemic - The New York Times; Wisconsin holds its primary election in the middle of a pandemic
It is important to keep that majority for a case pending before that Court where republicans are attempting to purge 200,000 from the voting rolls.
The Wisconsin republicans have been doing whatever they can to make voting harder, to gerrymander districts to frustrate majority rule, and to dilute the power of urban centers that vote for Democrats.
A republican majority of the state Supreme Court is a necessary ingredient in those fundamentally authoritarian power tactics.
To insure the victory of a republican Supreme Court Justice, all but 5 voting places in Milwaukee were closed creating 2 hour waits to vote after risking your life. Milwaukee, with its 600,000 people, is one of the primary bastions of voter support for democrats. What we learned from Wisconsin - The Washington Post
After a Disturbing Election Day, Now What in Wisconsin? (noting 10,000 absentee ballots were disregarded)
Robin Vos, the republican speaker of the state House of Representatives, assured that voting was safe with the precautions shown in this photo that he posted on his facebook page.
Among republicans, this conduct is viewed as acceptable.
Republicans in Wisconsin and elsewhere are opposed to voting by mail since that would increase voter turnout that could remove them from power in several states including Wisconsin. Keeping power is far more important than the most fundamental rights necessary to a properly functioning democracy.
The ostensible excuse given for their position is not to discourage voting, the real reason, but to prevent voter fraud, which is a reality creation designed to provide cover for their real objective.
Watch Demagogue Don lie about the Judicial Watch settlement with California: Trump falls on face when asked by Jim Acosta for proof of mail-in ballot fraud - YouTube
Don the Authoritarian routinely lies about voting fraud for self-serving reasons. Trump’s wild claims of voter fraud blow back on campaign aide; Trump, who has lied about voting for years, disparages voting by mail for self-serving reasons - The Washington Post
Trump pushes false claims about mail-in vote fraud. Here are the facts.
Trumps lies on this topic and many others are shameful but he can not be shamed into telling truth. The main reasons are simple to understand. He is a pathological liar and lying works so well for him (and has for decades).
+++++
Kansas Republicans:
Kansas GOP Cancels Large Gathering Ban on Crisis’s Worst Day
Gov. Laura Kelly (D) condemns A.G., legislators for ’political attack’ as deaths, infections surge - News - The Topeka Capital-Journal - Topeka, KS
++
It remains to be seen how investors will react to a parade of earnings news like this warning from Starbucks. Starbucks sees 47% drop in second-quarter earnings on coronavirus hit
Jeff Saut says market bottom in, sees new S&P 500 record in 2020
The bullish case for stocks with major averages already up more than 20% from the lows
Waiting for a stock-market bottom is ‘folly,’ says billionaire Howard Marks: ‘If something’s cheap…you should buy’ - MarketWatch
AGNC Investment cuts dividend by 25%; book value down 23% YTD (NASDAQ:AGNC) | Seeking Alpha Like other MREITs, AGNC has been reducing its dividends for years. When I last eliminated AGNC, I mentioned then that I would not be buying again. Item # 4 Sold 50+ AGNC at $$17.83+ (12/26/18 Post)("I am going to quit while I am ahead on this MREIT.")
Realty Income Announces First Quarter 2020 Earnings Release Date, Draws $1.20 Billion On Revolving Credit Facility, And Withdraws 2020 Guidance
Stocks will revisit their coronavirus crash low, and here’s when to expect it - MarketWatch This is an opinion article written by Mark Hulbert who argues that the retest will come next August.
++++++
Portfolio Management:
I mentioned above the MS opinion that the risk-reward is the most attractive in years and that firm's recommendation to buy stocks. I do not subscribe to that opinion.
In my view, the S & P 500 may now be in a fair value range with no pandemic having come into existence, with economies continuing to limp along, or moving into a recession (several European countries), as they were prior to the pandemic.
I did add to my stock allocation last month during the meltdown.
My normal approach is to buy into volatility spikes which I have been doing since the volatility event started on 2/24/20.
In part, I am playing the possibility that the S & P 500 bottomed in the 2150-2200 range and that a V shape recovery will take baby steps during the current quarter and will be in full motion no later than the third.
There is certainly no assurance that this will happen. And I am very suspicious of the claim that the economy will be roaring in the second half, as opposed to more subdued growth. The possibility that a recession will continue into the third quarter can not be dismissed now IMO.
And, I view the recent robust rally to be overdone, taking as a given a future scenario that is still in doubt.
My current best guess is that the odds are less than 50/50 that the future will unfold in that manner currently being predicted by the Stock Jocks, but the probability that it will is not immaterial.
Another consideration is the probability that investors will have major panic episodes over the next several weeks.
As first quarter earnings reports are released this month, there will be an abundance of negative news. And, companies are going to be very circumspect in seeing "light at the end of the tunnel". Most will continue refusing to provide 2020 guidance or to engage in positive spin about the next quarter or two.
U.S. economic data will be horrific for the second quarter.
Investors will reconsider their hopes that the corner has been turned and nothing but blue skies lie dead ahead.
A retest of the March lows is possible, particularly if the current recessions continues into the second half.
It is also possible that an attempt to restart the economy in May will result in a second major wave of infections. Scientists now believe that the virus will survive in more warm and humid conditions. Warm weather is unlikely to stop coronavirus, National Academies finds - The Washington Post; Summer Heat May Not Diminish Coronavirus Strength - The New York Times
The NYT obtained a copy of predictions made by Homeland Security if stay-at-home restrictions are lifted on 4/30. There would be another spike in infections during the summer, bringing the total death number close to 200,000 even with schools remaining closed until summer and 25% of the workforce continuing to work at home. Coronavirus Cases in the US: Live Updates
While I increased my stock allocation last month, I am now in a net selling mode though the selling is a mere trickle currently. I have also restarted a trickle of double short ETF purchases as hedges that were eliminated last month during the meltdown.
Some stock positions bought in March have already been eliminated and will not be discussed in a post.
I will not be discussing any of the stock purchases made in my Roth IRA accounts and less than 50% of the purchases overall.
It will be late May or early June before I finish discussing less than 50% of the stock purchases already made.
There were several days in March when I hit 100 filled orders per day.
Most of the proceeds from maturing bonds, CDs and treasury bills will be used to purchase either investment grade corporate bonds (with the focus on short maturities) or kept in a money market account.
Third Party Pricing Services for Bonds:
For anyone just starting out buying individual bonds, I want to emphasize that the bond prices shown in your account are not based on the last trade
Instead, brokers use third party pricing services to provide lower than fair market values.
The third party prices will almost invariably below the fair market value, so the only conclusion that I can reasonably reach is that is done purposely.
The why is speculative but may have something to do with the lack of liquidity when there is a margin call and bonds have to be sold quickly to meet the margin call.
In a 3/19 comment, I mentioned buying 10 American Electric Power 2.95% SU bonds maturing on 12/15/22. The total cost was at 96.828. I will discuss that purchase in my next post.
The last last trade was at 102.537.
Those bonds were purchased in my Schwab account. This bond was last priced by the third party service used by that broker at 101.2061.
I also own 2 bonds in my Fidelity account: Item # 3.B Bought 1 American Electric Power 2.95% SU Bonds Maturing on 12/15/22 at a TC of 98.716 (1/30/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 1 at a TC of 98.613 (4/9/18 Post)
Apparently several days of trades above 100 caused the third party service used by Fidelity, easily the most inaccurate one among my brokers, to take the price off 97, but not enough days and trades above par to actually take the price to or over 100 that would at least be closer to reality.
The last price for this same bond priced at 101.2061 in my Schwab account was 99.605 by the Fidelity pricing service:
Value of 10 Bonds:
Last Trade: $10,253.70
Schwab Price: $10,120.61
Fidelity Price: $ 9,960.5
Last Trade vs. Fidelity $ Difference: $293.20
It is just important to keep in mind that the third party prices most likely do not reflect the prices that bonds can be bought or sold.
BDCs and Regional Banks: I have taken hits in both sectors where I owned a position prior to pandemic and started small ball purchases too soon in March.
These two sectors were among the hardest hit during the March stock plunge.
All or virtually all stocks that I own in those sectors declined by over 50%.
The common thread was rational concerns about credit defaults during the deep recession that the nation is now experiencing.
The Feds announced last Friday that it would be loaning money directly to small and medium size businesses, with the banks dishing out FED's money and keeping 5% of the loan. Interest payments on the loans will be deferred for one year. Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve takes additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy
Small and mid sized businesses are the primary recipients of bank and BDC commercial loans. The substantial rally in their stocks last Thursday was probably linked to the FED coming to the aid of their loan customers.
Closing Prices Last Trading Day:
KRE $37.38 +$2.74 +7.91%: SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
BIZD $10.53 +$0.94 +9.86%: VanEck Vectors BDC Income ETF
The S & P 500 was up 1.45%.
BDCs are an unfavored asset class for me. I view them as risky even during an economic expansion period. I consequently keep my overall exposure to far less than minimal amounts and trade them frequently to harvest gains. They are now properly classified as very high risk IMO due to the ongoing shutdowns and recession.
Regional banks are being priced incorrectly based on the scenario where there is a rapid economic recovery in the second half and small business bankruptcies can be mitigated by the fiscal and monetary policies that are now in place. On the other hand, most are probably overpriced with a continuation of depressionary conditions into the third quarter with a slow and painful recovery thereafter. So, tell me what the future holds, and I will be better able to allocate my money now.
++++++
Wisconsin Republicans:
Wisconsin Republicans, who control the state legislature and want to maintain control over the state Supreme Court, refused to postpone an election last Tuesday.
When the newly elected Democrat governor tried to postpone the election until June, when conditions are likely to be more safe than now, the republicans challenged his decision in courts. The republican majorities in the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the U.S. Supreme Court of course voted in favor of the republican politicians.
It was not important to the republicans that people would be risking their health and even lives by voting.
What was important was a political calculation that they had a better chance to hold onto a narrow 5 to 4 majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court by proceeding with the election with limited voter turnout. Why Wisconsin Republicans Insisted on an Election in a Pandemic - The New York Times; Wisconsin holds its primary election in the middle of a pandemic
It is important to keep that majority for a case pending before that Court where republicans are attempting to purge 200,000 from the voting rolls.
The Wisconsin republicans have been doing whatever they can to make voting harder, to gerrymander districts to frustrate majority rule, and to dilute the power of urban centers that vote for Democrats.
A republican majority of the state Supreme Court is a necessary ingredient in those fundamentally authoritarian power tactics.
To insure the victory of a republican Supreme Court Justice, all but 5 voting places in Milwaukee were closed creating 2 hour waits to vote after risking your life. Milwaukee, with its 600,000 people, is one of the primary bastions of voter support for democrats. What we learned from Wisconsin - The Washington Post
After a Disturbing Election Day, Now What in Wisconsin? (noting 10,000 absentee ballots were disregarded)
Robin Vos, the republican speaker of the state House of Representatives, assured that voting was safe with the precautions shown in this photo that he posted on his facebook page.
Republicans in Wisconsin and elsewhere are opposed to voting by mail since that would increase voter turnout that could remove them from power in several states including Wisconsin. Keeping power is far more important than the most fundamental rights necessary to a properly functioning democracy.
The ostensible excuse given for their position is not to discourage voting, the real reason, but to prevent voter fraud, which is a reality creation designed to provide cover for their real objective.
Watch Demagogue Don lie about the Judicial Watch settlement with California: Trump falls on face when asked by Jim Acosta for proof of mail-in ballot fraud - YouTube
Don the Authoritarian routinely lies about voting fraud for self-serving reasons. Trump’s wild claims of voter fraud blow back on campaign aide; Trump, who has lied about voting for years, disparages voting by mail for self-serving reasons - The Washington Post
Trump pushes false claims about mail-in vote fraud. Here are the facts.
Trumps lies on this topic and many others are shameful but he can not be shamed into telling truth. The main reasons are simple to understand. He is a pathological liar and lying works so well for him (and has for decades).
+++++
Kansas Republicans:
Kansas GOP Cancels Large Gathering Ban on Crisis’s Worst Day
Gov. Laura Kelly (D) condemns A.G., legislators for ’political attack’ as deaths, infections surge - News - The Topeka Capital-Journal - Topeka, KS
++
Trump:
What did Donald actually say and do to protect the Nation during the emergence phase of the Covid-19 U.S. Pandemic:
86.5% of republicans approve of how Donald has handled the COVID-19 pandemic. How Americans View The Coronavirus Crisis And Trump's Response | FiveThirtyEight; Despite his false claims, Republicans trust Trump for accurate information on COVID-19 over the CDC
The number of U.S. citizens infected with COVID-19 far exceeds any other country. Coronavirus World Map: Tracking The Spread Of The Outbreak-NPR
430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced - The New York Times (40,000 have travelled since Trump imposed travel restrictions); Trump's Snowballing China Travel Claim - FactCheck.org ("In early March, President Donald Trump said that restrictions he placed on travel to and from China “saved a lot of lives,” a claim that grew to “probably tens of thousands” and “hundreds of thousands” by early April. But we found no support for such figures.") Trump is incapable of being straight with the American public even on matters relating to a national health crisis. The Alternate Reality of TrumpWorld remains in full bloom.
The Virus Tears Across the and U.S. States Scramble (4/6/20 article)
Fact Check: Trump disputes HHS IG report, repeats several other false claims at Monday's coronavirus briefing
Analysis: The White House continues to downplay the coronavirus threat to much of the country (4/6/20 Article)
Delays and Shortages Exacerbate Coronavirus Testing Gaps in the U.S. - The New York Times
New York is in dire need of ventilators. China just donated 1,000. - Vox This says a lot about U.S. preparedness and Donald's handling of the pandemic.
Trump says IG report finding hospital shortages is 'just wrong' | TheHill (4/6/20 article, sourced from AP) The Fake News President says the report from his Administration, based on a survey of 323 hospitals from around the country, is Fake News. Trump: Health and Human Services watchdog produced "fake dossier" on coronavirus
Looks like another Inspector General is about to fired for doing their job. Hospital Experiences Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results of a National Pulse Survey March 24-27, 2020
Trump berates reporters when asked about HHS report from his own administration In TrumpWorld, a reporter is being nasty to Donald when asking a question that the Duck does not want to answer or even to be asked.
Coronavirus response: Officials got warnings but didn’t act quickly: USA Today
Two months in, Trump's coronavirus response creates more chaos
Trump administration ended coronavirus detection program - Los Angeles Times (two months before the coronavirus pandemic started in Wuhan)
Ex-GOP Strategist Steve Schmidt Calls Trump 'Incompetent,' 'Ignorant' Over Handling of Coronavirus Pandemic
Trump administration shuttered pandemic monitoring program, then scrambled to extend it
Trump Wants Everyone to Forget He Ignored Repeated Coronavirus Warnings: A Closer Look - YouTube
{Remember, everything in TrumpWorld is upside down: True is False and False is True are just two examples. Those who live in TrumpWorld will never leave, nor could they be convinced to even challenge the opinions that keep them in that alternate reality free from doubts or even the faintest question about their beliefs and opinions}
States and experts begin pursuing a coronavirus national strategy in absence of White House direction - The Washington Post (4/10/20 article)
November 2019: Intelligence report warned of coronavirus crisis as early as November: Sources - ABC News
January 18, 2020: Trump had been briefed by Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar who told "several associates" that Trump viewed the warnings about the coronavirus as "alarmist" and he did not want to listen. The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged
U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about a likely pandemic - The Washington Post (one republican did react. The surge in warnings coincided with a move by Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to sell dozens of stocks worth between $628,033 and $1.72 million." Merely coincidental in TrumpWorld).
January 22, 2020: Trump “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China.”
February 24, 2020:
February 23, 2020: Peter Navarro warns Trump in a memo that 1.2 million Americans could die from Covid-19 with over as many as 100 million infections. Trump aide Peter Navarro warned 'as many as 1.2 million souls' could be lost to coronavirus: reports Donald claims he did not read the memo, which is easy to believe since he does not read memos. When asked whether the recalls being briefed, Lying Don said he does not remember.
If you want to explain something to Doofus Don, do not write a memo.
Use brightly colored flash cards as if you were trying to educate a 5 year old with acute attention deficit disorder. Juncker used ‘brightly coloured, simple flashcards’ to explain trade to Trump during meeting | The Independent
February 26, 2020 : “So we’re at the low level. As they get better, we take them off the list, so that we’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time. So we’ve had very good luck.” Remarks by President Trump at White House Briefing Donald claims the U.S. is "really prepared". PolitiFact | Timeline: How Donald Trump responded to the coronavirus pandemic
February 29, 2020: “And I’ve gotten to know these professionals. They’re incredible. And everything is under control. I mean, they’re very, very cool. They’ve done it, and they’ve done it well. Everything is really under control.” Remarks by President Trump at the 2020 Conservative Political Action Conference | National Harbor, MD | The White House
So ask a Trumpster where is the national plan which includes the rapid manufacture of test kits, personal protective equipment and ventilators.
March 6, 2020: Trump: Anyone who wants virus test can get a test - YouTube And, the testing kits available to everyone are perfect, just like his "perfect call" with Ukraine's President. Donald added that Washington state's governor Jay Inslee was a "snake".
Trump: “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.” ‘Maybe I have a natural ability’: Trump plays medical expert on coronavirus by second-guessing the professionals - The Washington Post
If I ever need a new heart, I want Donald to perform the surgery. Thinking about Don the Magnificent some more, I also want him to do the necessary brain surgery when and if I have a brain aneurysm.
I also want Donald, the universe's foremost expert on everything, now or at any time in the past or in the future (add in all dimensions known and unknown and including all residents of heaven as well), to prescribe whatever drugs I may need given his superior knowledge on that subject. I am suffering more frequent brain malfunctions. Maybe Doctor Don can prescribe that malaria drug for me. What do I got to lose?
March 8, 2020:
March 10, 2020: “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” Remarks by President Trump After Meeting with Republican Senators | The White House
March 17, 2020: "I've always known this is a real, this is a pandemic. I've felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic." Trump's answer to a reporter's question. PolitiFact | Trump says he always felt coronavirus was a pandemic. He didn’t talk that way Rated a Pants-on Fire Claim by Trump.
March 18, 2020:
The preceding narrative created by Donald was spread by Trump TV.
This video need to be watched by every American: Saluting the Heroes of the Coronavirus Pandumbic | The Daily Show - YouTube; see also 'Yikes!' Amanpour reacts to Fox News montage about virus - YouTube (Karen Swisher talks about how it difficult it was for her to convince her mother, an avid Fox viewer, that she needed to take precautions);
Sean Hannity wants to rewrite history on Fox's coronavirus coverage. He can't. - YouTube;
How Fox News has shifted its coronavirus rhetoric - YouTube;
And what about those healthcare workers who are protesting the lack of personal protective equipment? In Trump's America, they are not nurses who are risking their lives everyday but outside radical leftist agitators bused in by George Soros to make Donald look bad.
Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count - The Washington Post That is the case in every country due to lack of testing. (see, e.g. Uncounted among coronavirus victims, deaths sweep through Italy's nursing homes - Reuters)
In the alternate reality of TrumpWorld where reality creations have replaced facts, there is no way that even God could have done a better job than Donald.
The Trumpster/republican view is summarized by a republican lady who was featured in a recent NYT article as follows:
“He’s covered every aspect. He’s done everything.”
Then why does the U.S. have the highest level of confirmed infections than anywhere else in the world and will end up with far more deaths per 100,000 people? WHO COVID-19 Dashboard; Cases in U.S. | CDC Why are governors still having to scramble and bid against one other for medical supplies in mid-April 2020? Why states and the federal government are bidding on PPE (4/11/20 article)
When asked yesterday what metrics he will use to determine when it is safe to reopen the country, Donald pointed to his head:
And then he said "The metrics right here. That's my metrics".
Donald played down the need for more widespread testing before reopening the economy. Trump downplays need for widespread testing before reopening economy Less than 1% of the population has been tested so far, far less than other countries. Donald will know that it is safe when the number of people being admitted to hospitals goes down. I am not sure whether it is his brain or gut drawing that conclusion.
Trump claimed yesterday that he has the power to overrule a governor's decision. Trump: “If I disagreed, I would overrule the governor, and I have that right to do it.” Fauci: Kids could get ‘infected’ if Florida reopens schools The Trumpster Florida governor is thinking about opening Florida's schools next month.
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Really nasty remark are routinely made by Donald. He could care less about spewing his vile on others.
In TrumpWorld, it is not nasty for the Don the Magnificent, for example, to call the former republican congressman Joe Scarborough "Psycho Joe".
In TrumpWorld, telling the truth and relying on facts that are inconsistent with Donald's reality creations are per se Fake News.
Scarborough hosts a morning TV show with his wife Mika Brzezinski. Did the President hit a new low when he insulted Mika Brzezinski on Twitter? - YouTube
It is hard to believe that these tweets and hundreds of similar ones come from an American President who is not being nasty by publishing them in Trump's America.
Coronavirus crisis highlights Trump’s resistance to criticism — and his desire for fervent praise Trump is a Carnival Barker.
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Disgusting Don Has To Take Credit Whenever Someone Else Does a Good Deed:
I did hear Donald say last Saturday that he deserved credit for those ventilators shipments from China to NY, even though the shipment was arranged by the founders of Alibaba, Jack Ma and Joe Tsai who are making donations of medical supplies to several countries who have not adequately prepared for the pandemic which of course includes he U.S..
Transcript Excerpt:
Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Briefing | The White House
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General Bone Spur as a Wartime President-Fire The Inspector Generals, Undercut Constitutional Rights and Environmental Protections:
One Hundred Star General Bone Spurs is attempting to build a campaign image and message that he is a wartime President doing everything possible in the nation's time of need.
The messaging is conducted through various channels including Trump co-opting the daily coronavirus briefings to spew misinformation, conspiracy theories and recommendations inconsistent with those given by the medical experts. The nation would be better off with the Duck just playing golf. Secret Service signs $45,000 “emergency order” for golf carts at Trump club amid pandemic: report | Salon.com
It is not surprising that Donald is using the pandemic, when the nation is distracted, to fire the Inspector General for the intelligence community for doing his job and to undercut environmental protections and constitutional rights.
Trump Fires Intelligence Watchdog Who Had Key Role in Ukraine Complaint;
'Syndromic surveillance' useful to track pandemics like COVID-19 (The team was disbanded due to Trump's cuts to the CDC budget)
DOJ Wants to Suspend Constitutional Rights for Coronavirus Emergency;
Trump is sneaking environmental rollbacks past a nation in quarantine | Grist;
Amid the coronavirus outbreak, the Trump administration continues pushing its anti-environment agenda - The Washington Post Donald is only doing what republicans want him to do. The GOP is not a conservative party.
Last Saturday afternoon during the daily coronavirus briefing, where Don the Magnificent demonstrates daily his unfitness to lead, a reporter asked him about the firing of the Inspector General for the intelligence community Michael Atkinson.
I was not surprised to hear Don the Authoritarian launch into a rambling, incoherent rant attacking the IG for doing his job and performing a public service.
Transcript Excerpt: This is truly disgusting.
Pages 19-21: Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Briefing | The White House
It is very difficult for me to listen to anyone, regardless of ideology or party affiliation, who sprays vile and false information like the Duck. I somehow managed to listened to Donald's entire tirade against the IG live on TV.
Donald's strong authoritarian tendencies and use of false statements were on display as was his psychological condition known as narcissistic injury, his mean spirit, and thoroughly disgusting nature. Just another convincing example of Donald's mental instability and unfitness to be President.
Demagogue Don called IG Atkinson a disgrace, the final word in Trumpworld for which there is no appeal and facts are totally irrelevant of course in rebuttal. The Duck has spoken, end of discussion. Everybody just need to get in lock step behind Donald.
Don the Authoritarian then removed another Inspector General. Mattis rebukes Trump over removal of Pentagon inspector general
For those who are not living in TrumpWorld, ask yourself a question. Why do 90%+ of republicans support a lying demagogue with strong authoritarian tendencies?
++
One of Donald's favorites commentators, Alex Jones, who is not a member of the Fake News media in TrumpWorld, claimed that COVID-19 was an American made biological weapon developed by forces to undermine Donald. Jones is using the pandemic to sell a wide variety of products to the brain impaired that "kills the whole sars-corona family at point-blank range.” Alex Jones’s Bogus Coronavirus Cures | The New Yorker; A Texas businessman who claims coronavirus is a race-targeting bioweapon says he advised Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on response to the pandemic | Media Matters for America
What did Donald actually say and do to protect the Nation during the emergence phase of the Covid-19 U.S. Pandemic:
86.5% of republicans approve of how Donald has handled the COVID-19 pandemic. How Americans View The Coronavirus Crisis And Trump's Response | FiveThirtyEight; Despite his false claims, Republicans trust Trump for accurate information on COVID-19 over the CDC
The number of U.S. citizens infected with COVID-19 far exceeds any other country. Coronavirus World Map: Tracking The Spread Of The Outbreak-NPR
430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced - The New York Times (40,000 have travelled since Trump imposed travel restrictions); Trump's Snowballing China Travel Claim - FactCheck.org ("In early March, President Donald Trump said that restrictions he placed on travel to and from China “saved a lot of lives,” a claim that grew to “probably tens of thousands” and “hundreds of thousands” by early April. But we found no support for such figures.") Trump is incapable of being straight with the American public even on matters relating to a national health crisis. The Alternate Reality of TrumpWorld remains in full bloom.
Fact Check: Trump disputes HHS IG report, repeats several other false claims at Monday's coronavirus briefing
Analysis: The White House continues to downplay the coronavirus threat to much of the country (4/6/20 Article)
Delays and Shortages Exacerbate Coronavirus Testing Gaps in the U.S. - The New York Times
New York is in dire need of ventilators. China just donated 1,000. - Vox This says a lot about U.S. preparedness and Donald's handling of the pandemic.
Trump says IG report finding hospital shortages is 'just wrong' | TheHill (4/6/20 article, sourced from AP) The Fake News President says the report from his Administration, based on a survey of 323 hospitals from around the country, is Fake News. Trump: Health and Human Services watchdog produced "fake dossier" on coronavirus
Looks like another Inspector General is about to fired for doing their job. Hospital Experiences Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results of a National Pulse Survey March 24-27, 2020
Trump berates reporters when asked about HHS report from his own administration In TrumpWorld, a reporter is being nasty to Donald when asking a question that the Duck does not want to answer or even to be asked.
Coronavirus response: Officials got warnings but didn’t act quickly: USA Today
Two months in, Trump's coronavirus response creates more chaos
Trump administration ended coronavirus detection program - Los Angeles Times (two months before the coronavirus pandemic started in Wuhan)
Ex-GOP Strategist Steve Schmidt Calls Trump 'Incompetent,' 'Ignorant' Over Handling of Coronavirus Pandemic
Trump administration shuttered pandemic monitoring program, then scrambled to extend it
Trump Wants Everyone to Forget He Ignored Repeated Coronavirus Warnings: A Closer Look - YouTube
{Remember, everything in TrumpWorld is upside down: True is False and False is True are just two examples. Those who live in TrumpWorld will never leave, nor could they be convinced to even challenge the opinions that keep them in that alternate reality free from doubts or even the faintest question about their beliefs and opinions}
States and experts begin pursuing a coronavirus national strategy in absence of White House direction - The Washington Post (4/10/20 article)
November 2019: Intelligence report warned of coronavirus crisis as early as November: Sources - ABC News
January 18, 2020: Trump had been briefed by Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar who told "several associates" that Trump viewed the warnings about the coronavirus as "alarmist" and he did not want to listen. The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged
U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about a likely pandemic - The Washington Post (one republican did react. The surge in warnings coincided with a move by Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to sell dozens of stocks worth between $628,033 and $1.72 million." Merely coincidental in TrumpWorld).
February 24, 2020:
 |
| 2/24/20 Tweet: Coronavirus "very much under control" |
If you want to explain something to Doofus Don, do not write a memo.
Use brightly colored flash cards as if you were trying to educate a 5 year old with acute attention deficit disorder. Juncker used ‘brightly coloured, simple flashcards’ to explain trade to Trump during meeting | The Independent
February 26, 2020 : “So we’re at the low level. As they get better, we take them off the list, so that we’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time. So we’ve had very good luck.” Remarks by President Trump at White House Briefing Donald claims the U.S. is "really prepared". PolitiFact | Timeline: How Donald Trump responded to the coronavirus pandemic
February 29, 2020: “And I’ve gotten to know these professionals. They’re incredible. And everything is under control. I mean, they’re very, very cool. They’ve done it, and they’ve done it well. Everything is really under control.” Remarks by President Trump at the 2020 Conservative Political Action Conference | National Harbor, MD | The White House
 |
| Tally as of 4/10/20 |
March 6, 2020: Trump: Anyone who wants virus test can get a test - YouTube And, the testing kits available to everyone are perfect, just like his "perfect call" with Ukraine's President. Donald added that Washington state's governor Jay Inslee was a "snake".
Trump: “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.” ‘Maybe I have a natural ability’: Trump plays medical expert on coronavirus by second-guessing the professionals - The Washington Post
If I ever need a new heart, I want Donald to perform the surgery. Thinking about Don the Magnificent some more, I also want him to do the necessary brain surgery when and if I have a brain aneurysm.
I also want Donald, the universe's foremost expert on everything, now or at any time in the past or in the future (add in all dimensions known and unknown and including all residents of heaven as well), to prescribe whatever drugs I may need given his superior knowledge on that subject. I am suffering more frequent brain malfunctions. Maybe Doctor Don can prescribe that malaria drug for me. What do I got to lose?
March 8, 2020:
March 10, 2020: “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” Remarks by President Trump After Meeting with Republican Senators | The White House
March 17, 2020: "I've always known this is a real, this is a pandemic. I've felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic." Trump's answer to a reporter's question. PolitiFact | Trump says he always felt coronavirus was a pandemic. He didn’t talk that way Rated a Pants-on Fire Claim by Trump.
March 18, 2020:
The preceding narrative created by Donald was spread by Trump TV.
This video need to be watched by every American: Saluting the Heroes of the Coronavirus Pandumbic | The Daily Show - YouTube; see also 'Yikes!' Amanpour reacts to Fox News montage about virus - YouTube (Karen Swisher talks about how it difficult it was for her to convince her mother, an avid Fox viewer, that she needed to take precautions);
Sean Hannity wants to rewrite history on Fox's coronavirus coverage. He can't. - YouTube;
How Fox News has shifted its coronavirus rhetoric - YouTube;
And what about those healthcare workers who are protesting the lack of personal protective equipment? In Trump's America, they are not nurses who are risking their lives everyday but outside radical leftist agitators bused in by George Soros to make Donald look bad.
Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count - The Washington Post That is the case in every country due to lack of testing. (see, e.g. Uncounted among coronavirus victims, deaths sweep through Italy's nursing homes - Reuters)
In the alternate reality of TrumpWorld where reality creations have replaced facts, there is no way that even God could have done a better job than Donald.
The Trumpster/republican view is summarized by a republican lady who was featured in a recent NYT article as follows:
“He’s covered every aspect. He’s done everything.”
Then why does the U.S. have the highest level of confirmed infections than anywhere else in the world and will end up with far more deaths per 100,000 people? WHO COVID-19 Dashboard; Cases in U.S. | CDC Why are governors still having to scramble and bid against one other for medical supplies in mid-April 2020? Why states and the federal government are bidding on PPE (4/11/20 article)
When asked yesterday what metrics he will use to determine when it is safe to reopen the country, Donald pointed to his head:
Donald played down the need for more widespread testing before reopening the economy. Trump downplays need for widespread testing before reopening economy Less than 1% of the population has been tested so far, far less than other countries. Donald will know that it is safe when the number of people being admitted to hospitals goes down. I am not sure whether it is his brain or gut drawing that conclusion.
Trump claimed yesterday that he has the power to overrule a governor's decision. Trump: “If I disagreed, I would overrule the governor, and I have that right to do it.” Fauci: Kids could get ‘infected’ if Florida reopens schools The Trumpster Florida governor is thinking about opening Florida's schools next month.
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Really Nasty Don:
Donald views reporters who dare to ask a question that the Duck does want to answer (particularly a question that quotes his prior statements that contradict the story he wants to tell now) to be "nasty" or asking a "nasty" question or asking a question in a "nasty" tone.
The basic theme underlying Donald's assaults on the reporters is that he does not like anyone interfering with whatever false narrative he is trying to sell at the moment. (e.g. Coronavirus: Trump rails against reporter who asked about stockpile; Trump throws tantrum over coronavirus question: 'You're a terrible reporter'; Trump's heated response to 'snarky, nasty question' - BBC News)
Donald views reporters who dare to ask a question that the Duck does want to answer (particularly a question that quotes his prior statements that contradict the story he wants to tell now) to be "nasty" or asking a "nasty" question or asking a question in a "nasty" tone.
The basic theme underlying Donald's assaults on the reporters is that he does not like anyone interfering with whatever false narrative he is trying to sell at the moment. (e.g. Coronavirus: Trump rails against reporter who asked about stockpile; Trump throws tantrum over coronavirus question: 'You're a terrible reporter'; Trump's heated response to 'snarky, nasty question' - BBC News)
Really nasty remark are routinely made by Donald. He could care less about spewing his vile on others.
In TrumpWorld, it is not nasty for the Don the Magnificent, for example, to call the former republican congressman Joe Scarborough "Psycho Joe".
Scarborough hosts a morning TV show with his wife Mika Brzezinski. Did the President hit a new low when he insulted Mika Brzezinski on Twitter? - YouTube
Coronavirus crisis highlights Trump’s resistance to criticism — and his desire for fervent praise Trump is a Carnival Barker.
++
Disgusting Don Has To Take Credit Whenever Someone Else Does a Good Deed:
I did hear Donald say last Saturday that he deserved credit for those ventilators shipments from China to NY, even though the shipment was arranged by the founders of Alibaba, Jack Ma and Joe Tsai who are making donations of medical supplies to several countries who have not adequately prepared for the pandemic which of course includes he U.S..
Transcript Excerpt:
++
General Bone Spur as a Wartime President-Fire The Inspector Generals, Undercut Constitutional Rights and Environmental Protections:
One Hundred Star General Bone Spurs is attempting to build a campaign image and message that he is a wartime President doing everything possible in the nation's time of need.
The messaging is conducted through various channels including Trump co-opting the daily coronavirus briefings to spew misinformation, conspiracy theories and recommendations inconsistent with those given by the medical experts. The nation would be better off with the Duck just playing golf. Secret Service signs $45,000 “emergency order” for golf carts at Trump club amid pandemic: report | Salon.com
It is not surprising that Donald is using the pandemic, when the nation is distracted, to fire the Inspector General for the intelligence community for doing his job and to undercut environmental protections and constitutional rights.
Trump Fires Intelligence Watchdog Who Had Key Role in Ukraine Complaint;
'Syndromic surveillance' useful to track pandemics like COVID-19 (The team was disbanded due to Trump's cuts to the CDC budget)
DOJ Wants to Suspend Constitutional Rights for Coronavirus Emergency;
Trump is sneaking environmental rollbacks past a nation in quarantine | Grist;
Amid the coronavirus outbreak, the Trump administration continues pushing its anti-environment agenda - The Washington Post Donald is only doing what republicans want him to do. The GOP is not a conservative party.
Last Saturday afternoon during the daily coronavirus briefing, where Don the Magnificent demonstrates daily his unfitness to lead, a reporter asked him about the firing of the Inspector General for the intelligence community Michael Atkinson.
I was not surprised to hear Don the Authoritarian launch into a rambling, incoherent rant attacking the IG for doing his job and performing a public service.
Transcript Excerpt: This is truly disgusting.
It is very difficult for me to listen to anyone, regardless of ideology or party affiliation, who sprays vile and false information like the Duck. I somehow managed to listened to Donald's entire tirade against the IG live on TV.
Donald's strong authoritarian tendencies and use of false statements were on display as was his psychological condition known as narcissistic injury, his mean spirit, and thoroughly disgusting nature. Just another convincing example of Donald's mental instability and unfitness to be President.
Demagogue Don called IG Atkinson a disgrace, the final word in Trumpworld for which there is no appeal and facts are totally irrelevant of course in rebuttal. The Duck has spoken, end of discussion. Everybody just need to get in lock step behind Donald.
Don the Authoritarian then removed another Inspector General. Mattis rebukes Trump over removal of Pentagon inspector general
For those who are not living in TrumpWorld, ask yourself a question. Why do 90%+ of republicans support a lying demagogue with strong authoritarian tendencies?
++
One of Donald's favorites commentators, Alex Jones, who is not a member of the Fake News media in TrumpWorld, claimed that COVID-19 was an American made biological weapon developed by forces to undermine Donald. Jones is using the pandemic to sell a wide variety of products to the brain impaired that "kills the whole sars-corona family at point-blank range.” Alex Jones’s Bogus Coronavirus Cures | The New Yorker; A Texas businessman who claims coronavirus is a race-targeting bioweapon says he advised Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on response to the pandemic | Media Matters for America
‘The Strange Case of Donald J. Trump: A Psychological Reckoning’ - Northwestern Now; Amazon.com: The Strange Case of Donald J. Trump: A Psychological Reckoning (9780197507445): McAdams, Dan P.: Books
At least 70 people infected with coronavirus linked to a single church, health officials say Since people are tightly packed during a service, and generally congregate freely with other attendees, churches have a significant source of contagion. That is why republican governors have exempted churches from stay at home orders. Florida, other states allowing church services during coronavirus pandemic draw criticism | TheHill
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Donald, the Trumpster Thomas Modly and Captain Brett Crozier, formerly commander of the aircraft carrier U.S. Theodore Roosevelt:
Virus cases soar to 416 on U.S. warship after captain fired (the Navy is still waiting for 1000 test results, just for the crew of this carrier)
Donald could not tolerate a Navy Captain, Brett Crozier, who was concerned about the health of his crew. Trump says Navy captain letter asking for help on coronavirus-stricken ship 'was terrible'; More crew on USS Theodore Roosevelt test positive after ship's captain fired - CBS News
Why? In TrumpWorld, One Thousand Star General Bone Spurs himself is more concerned about the health of those crew members than his own political future.
(note, since my earlier reference, Donald promoted himself to 1000 Star General Bond Spurs from a mere 100 Stars since his majestic qualities as a wartime commander were not adequately reflected in the prior rank)
The Captain poked a hole in that narrative and consequently embarrassed Donald which is a sin in TrumpWorld worth far more than just walking the plank into the deep blue seas.
Offenders have to be publicly castigated by Trumpsters and their apparatchiks on GOP TV and elsewhere before walking the plank.
Trump made it clear last Saturday that he supported Crozier's firing for requesting help as COVID-19 infections rapidly spread among his crew. Virus-stricken aircraft carrier erupts in applause and cheers as ousted Capt. Brett Crozier departs - The Washington Post; Navy fires USS Theodore Roosevelt captain who asked for COVID-19 aid; Questioning Coronavirus Strategy Costs Carrier Commander His Job : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR
This is a link to the letter sent by Crozier to the Department of Navy that got him fired: TR-COVID-19-Assistance-Request.pdf
Thomas Modly, the Trumpster political appointee who fired the Captain, told an associate that Trump wanted the Captain removed immediately before an investigation could even be started to see whether Crozier had leaked his letter to the press: Inside the ouster of Capt. Brett Crozier - The Washington Post
Modly later claimed, as many have before him, that the did not talk to anyone in the White House about firing Captain Crozier (which if true does not rule out that someone else talked to someone in the White House who then talked to Modly)
Modly claimed that the Captain of the aircraft carrier was panicking about the epidemic on his ship which, if true, calls into question how the Navy chooses Captains.
After firing the Captain, Modly felt compelled to fly 8000 miles to Guam to address the crew in person. Trip to Guam at center of acting Navy secretary Thomas Modley’s resignation cost over $243,000 - The Washington Post
During that address, Modly claimed that Captain Crozier had committed a court martial offense by either leaking the letter to the press or being too stupid to know that it would be leaked by someone. Acting Navy secretary blasts ousted aircraft carrier captain as 'stupid' in address to ship's crew - CNN Modly asserted that Crozier had betrayed the Navy.
Fired Navy captain reportedly tests positive for coronavirus
Acting secretary of the Navy has submitted his resignation after calling ousted aircraft carrier captain 'stupid'
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Tybee Island will fight Georgia governor's 'reckless mandate' to reopen state's beaches - CNN Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA), who just found out that COVID-19 can be transmitted by those who are symptomatic, said he would arrest anyone who tried to keep him from reopening the beaches.
Governor Kemp's intellect is on display in this campaign ad: So Conservative - YouTube Those kind of campaign ads work on more than 1/2 of voters in several southern states. It is really sad. Maybe the next voting generation will be different.
Jerry Falwell Jr. Got Arrest Warrants Issued for Journalists; Jerry Falwell Jr. says warrants are out for 2 journalists after critical stories on coronavirus decision-POLITICO Falwell is a member of the American Taliban wing of the GOP.
Eugene Scalia, rising in Trump orbit, becomes key force in coronavirus response effort - The Washington Post Eugene is son of the now deceased Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.
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Trump and Fox News Promotion of Malaria Drug to Treat and Prvent Coronavirus:
Over the past week or so, Fox "News" has made a number of fact filled recommendations for using hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19. By fact filled, I mean by the "fair and balanced" Fox "News" standards.
1, Jesse Waters: Waters denounced the "cherry-picking snakes, liars and backstabbing hypocrites” who have prevented people from taking the drug. No one in the media has prevented anyone from taking the drug, of course, but that is irrelevant in TrumpWorld. Any doctor can prescribe it after the FDA gave emergency approval for off label use.
2. Tucker Carlson: Referring to media outlets that report factual information about this drug, Carlson had this to day: “It is probably the most shameful thing I, as someone who has done this for 20 years, has ever seen. It’s making a lot of us ashamed to work in the same profession as those people. So reckless and wrong in the middle of a pandemic, it really is, for real.”
3. Laura Ingraham: “After hearing all of the stories where hydroxychloroquine is credited with saving lives, it is amazing that the left and the medical establishment is still in total denial about the potential of these decades-old drugs.” If anyone recovers who takes the drug, that is proof in TrumpWorld that the drug caused the recovery.
4. Sean Hannity: The drug is showing success “in spite of what the mob and the media is telling you.”
The "study" relied on by Fox "News" for its normal excoriations directed at responsible news organizations was subsequently questioned by the publisher. Statement on IJAA paper | International Society of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy If a responsible news organization mentions this fact, then it is part of a media mob disseminating Fake News in Fox's Alternate Reality and is engaged in a radical left wing conspiracy deserving of the most harsh condemnation by Fox "News" personalities.
Coronavirus: Chloroquine No Better Than Regular Care, Study Says- Bloomberg
No Evidence of Rapid Antiviral Clearance or Clinical Benefit with the Combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin in Patients with Severe COVID-19 Infection - ScienceDirect
Trump doubles down on unproven drug hydroxychloroquine to treat and prevent coronavirus
Dr William Haseltine Warns Against Coronavirus Malarial Drug
Navarro on coronavirus disagreement with Fauci: 'I'm a social scientist'
'No miraculous recovery': Some ICU doctors say hydroxychloroquine isn't helping sickest patients
Former FDA leaders decry emergency authorization of malaria drugs for coronavirus | Science | AAAS
Hydroxychloroquine evidence for treating Covid-19 is weak - Vox This will not prevent Donald from recommending it to patients. Note that some hospitals overseas quit giving the drug after patients reported seizures and blurred vision. As I discussed above, I want Doctor Don to give me a prescription to cure my brain malfunctions, what do I have to lose other than a heart attack or other side effects that the drug may cause. Mayo Clinic cardiologist: 'Inexcusable' to ignore hydroxychloroquine side effects
President Trump is wrong in so many ways about hydroxychloroquine studies. Here are the facts - CNN
The drug is being tested in clinical trials.
++
Donald, the Trumpster Thomas Modly and Captain Brett Crozier, formerly commander of the aircraft carrier U.S. Theodore Roosevelt:
Virus cases soar to 416 on U.S. warship after captain fired (the Navy is still waiting for 1000 test results, just for the crew of this carrier)
Donald could not tolerate a Navy Captain, Brett Crozier, who was concerned about the health of his crew. Trump says Navy captain letter asking for help on coronavirus-stricken ship 'was terrible'; More crew on USS Theodore Roosevelt test positive after ship's captain fired - CBS News
Why? In TrumpWorld, One Thousand Star General Bone Spurs himself is more concerned about the health of those crew members than his own political future.
(note, since my earlier reference, Donald promoted himself to 1000 Star General Bond Spurs from a mere 100 Stars since his majestic qualities as a wartime commander were not adequately reflected in the prior rank)
The Captain poked a hole in that narrative and consequently embarrassed Donald which is a sin in TrumpWorld worth far more than just walking the plank into the deep blue seas.
Offenders have to be publicly castigated by Trumpsters and their apparatchiks on GOP TV and elsewhere before walking the plank.
Trump made it clear last Saturday that he supported Crozier's firing for requesting help as COVID-19 infections rapidly spread among his crew. Virus-stricken aircraft carrier erupts in applause and cheers as ousted Capt. Brett Crozier departs - The Washington Post; Navy fires USS Theodore Roosevelt captain who asked for COVID-19 aid; Questioning Coronavirus Strategy Costs Carrier Commander His Job : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR
This is a link to the letter sent by Crozier to the Department of Navy that got him fired: TR-COVID-19-Assistance-Request.pdf
Thomas Modly, the Trumpster political appointee who fired the Captain, told an associate that Trump wanted the Captain removed immediately before an investigation could even be started to see whether Crozier had leaked his letter to the press: Inside the ouster of Capt. Brett Crozier - The Washington Post
Modly later claimed, as many have before him, that the did not talk to anyone in the White House about firing Captain Crozier (which if true does not rule out that someone else talked to someone in the White House who then talked to Modly)
Modly claimed that the Captain of the aircraft carrier was panicking about the epidemic on his ship which, if true, calls into question how the Navy chooses Captains.
After firing the Captain, Modly felt compelled to fly 8000 miles to Guam to address the crew in person. Trip to Guam at center of acting Navy secretary Thomas Modley’s resignation cost over $243,000 - The Washington Post
During that address, Modly claimed that Captain Crozier had committed a court martial offense by either leaking the letter to the press or being too stupid to know that it would be leaked by someone. Acting Navy secretary blasts ousted aircraft carrier captain as 'stupid' in address to ship's crew - CNN Modly asserted that Crozier had betrayed the Navy.
Fired Navy captain reportedly tests positive for coronavirus
Acting secretary of the Navy has submitted his resignation after calling ousted aircraft carrier captain 'stupid'
++++
Tybee Island will fight Georgia governor's 'reckless mandate' to reopen state's beaches - CNN Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA), who just found out that COVID-19 can be transmitted by those who are symptomatic, said he would arrest anyone who tried to keep him from reopening the beaches.
Governor Kemp's intellect is on display in this campaign ad: So Conservative - YouTube Those kind of campaign ads work on more than 1/2 of voters in several southern states. It is really sad. Maybe the next voting generation will be different.
Jerry Falwell Jr. Got Arrest Warrants Issued for Journalists; Jerry Falwell Jr. says warrants are out for 2 journalists after critical stories on coronavirus decision-POLITICO Falwell is a member of the American Taliban wing of the GOP.
Eugene Scalia, rising in Trump orbit, becomes key force in coronavirus response effort - The Washington Post Eugene is son of the now deceased Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.
Trump and Fox News Promotion of Malaria Drug to Treat and Prvent Coronavirus:
Over the past week or so, Fox "News" has made a number of fact filled recommendations for using hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19. By fact filled, I mean by the "fair and balanced" Fox "News" standards.
1, Jesse Waters: Waters denounced the "cherry-picking snakes, liars and backstabbing hypocrites” who have prevented people from taking the drug. No one in the media has prevented anyone from taking the drug, of course, but that is irrelevant in TrumpWorld. Any doctor can prescribe it after the FDA gave emergency approval for off label use.
2. Tucker Carlson: Referring to media outlets that report factual information about this drug, Carlson had this to day: “It is probably the most shameful thing I, as someone who has done this for 20 years, has ever seen. It’s making a lot of us ashamed to work in the same profession as those people. So reckless and wrong in the middle of a pandemic, it really is, for real.”
3. Laura Ingraham: “After hearing all of the stories where hydroxychloroquine is credited with saving lives, it is amazing that the left and the medical establishment is still in total denial about the potential of these decades-old drugs.” If anyone recovers who takes the drug, that is proof in TrumpWorld that the drug caused the recovery.
4. Sean Hannity: The drug is showing success “in spite of what the mob and the media is telling you.”
The "study" relied on by Fox "News" for its normal excoriations directed at responsible news organizations was subsequently questioned by the publisher. Statement on IJAA paper | International Society of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy If a responsible news organization mentions this fact, then it is part of a media mob disseminating Fake News in Fox's Alternate Reality and is engaged in a radical left wing conspiracy deserving of the most harsh condemnation by Fox "News" personalities.
Coronavirus: Chloroquine No Better Than Regular Care, Study Says- Bloomberg
No Evidence of Rapid Antiviral Clearance or Clinical Benefit with the Combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin in Patients with Severe COVID-19 Infection - ScienceDirect
Trump doubles down on unproven drug hydroxychloroquine to treat and prevent coronavirus
Dr William Haseltine Warns Against Coronavirus Malarial Drug
Navarro on coronavirus disagreement with Fauci: 'I'm a social scientist'
'No miraculous recovery': Some ICU doctors say hydroxychloroquine isn't helping sickest patients
Former FDA leaders decry emergency authorization of malaria drugs for coronavirus | Science | AAAS
Hydroxychloroquine evidence for treating Covid-19 is weak - Vox This will not prevent Donald from recommending it to patients. Note that some hospitals overseas quit giving the drug after patients reported seizures and blurred vision. As I discussed above, I want Doctor Don to give me a prescription to cure my brain malfunctions, what do I have to lose other than a heart attack or other side effects that the drug may cause. Mayo Clinic cardiologist: 'Inexcusable' to ignore hydroxychloroquine side effects
President Trump is wrong in so many ways about hydroxychloroquine studies. Here are the facts - CNN
The drug is being tested in clinical trials.
+++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
1. Bought Back 100 RNW:CA at C$11.08 (C$ 1 Commission):
Quotes:
CAD Priced Shares: TransAlta Renewables (RNW:CA)
USD Priced Shares: U.S. Grey Market | TRSWF
Last Closing Price (4/9): RNW.TO C$15.09 -C$0.05 -0.33%
Website: TransAlta Renewables
The company owns wind, solar, hydro and gas generating facilities. Facilities in Operation/Development | TransAlta Renewables
January 2020 Investor Presentation:
Dividends: Monthly at C$.0783 (C$.94 annually)
Dividend Information | TransAlta Renewables
Dividend Yield: 8.48% (Using C$11.98 and C$.94)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/12/20
Next Ex Dividend Date: 4/14/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
Last Round-Trips:
Item # 1 Sold 100 RNW:CA at C$17.92(3/14/20 Post)(profit snapshot = C$511)-Item # 2 Bought 100 RNW:CA at C$12.79 (9/14/19 Post);
Item # 3. B. Sold 150 RNW:CA at C$13.97 (profit snapshot = C$163.5)- Item # 2.A. Bought 100 RNW:CA at C$12.91 (6/18/18 Post), Item #2.A. Bought 50 RNW:C at C$12.45 (7/12/18 Post)
Item # 3. B. Sold 100 TRSWF at US$10.36 (5/5/19 Post)(Profit Snapshot = US$75.74)-Item # 2.B. Bought 100 TRSWF at US$9.55-Used Commission Schwab Free Trade (6/18/18 Post)
Totals:
+ US$75.74
+C$674.5
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
1. Bought Back 100 RNW:CA at C$11.08 (C$ 1 Commission):
Quotes:
CAD Priced Shares: TransAlta Renewables (RNW:CA)
USD Priced Shares: U.S. Grey Market | TRSWF
Last Closing Price (4/9): RNW.TO C$15.09 -C$0.05 -0.33%
Website: TransAlta Renewables
The company owns wind, solar, hydro and gas generating facilities. Facilities in Operation/Development | TransAlta Renewables
January 2020 Investor Presentation:
Dividends: Monthly at C$.0783 (C$.94 annually)
Dividend Information | TransAlta Renewables
Dividend Yield: 8.48% (Using C$11.98 and C$.94)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/12/20
Next Ex Dividend Date: 4/14/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
Item # 1 Sold 100 RNW:CA at C$17.92(3/14/20 Post)(profit snapshot = C$511)-Item # 2 Bought 100 RNW:CA at C$12.79 (9/14/19 Post);
Item # 3. B. Sold 150 RNW:CA at C$13.97 (profit snapshot = C$163.5)- Item # 2.A. Bought 100 RNW:CA at C$12.91 (6/18/18 Post), Item #2.A. Bought 50 RNW:C at C$12.45 (7/12/18 Post)
Item # 3. B. Sold 100 TRSWF at US$10.36 (5/5/19 Post)(Profit Snapshot = US$75.74)-Item # 2.B. Bought 100 TRSWF at US$9.55-Used Commission Schwab Free Trade (6/18/18 Post)
Totals:
+ US$75.74
+C$674.5
2. Leveraged Bond CEFs:
A. Added 35 GDO at $16.78; 5 at $15.6; 5 at $14.34; 5 at $13.75; 5 at $12.3; 5 at $11.4:
Last Closing Price (4/9): GDO $15.44 +$0.69 +4.68%
General Information:
I have bought, sold, eliminated and restarted this CEF multiple times over the past decade.
Last Elimination: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 1.B. Eliminated GDO-Sold 224+ at $16.47-Used Commission Free Trade (3/3/19 Post)
Data Date of Trade (3/9/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share = $17.62
Closing Market Price: $16.9
Discount: -4.09%
Data Date of 3/12/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per share = $16.48
Closing Market Price: $15.55
Discount: -5.64%
Data Date of 3/16/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $15.76
Closing Market Price: $14.42
Discount: -8.5%
Data Date of 3/17/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $15.34
Closing Market Price: $14.45
Discount: -5.8%
Date Date of Trade (3/18/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $14.43
Closing Market Price: $12.33
Discount: -14.55%
The time period covered by those purchases was a rough one for CEFs that were primarily weighted in corporate bonds. The investment grade corporate market was in disarray due to increasing credit concerns and an overall lack of liquidity.
Those issues were only magnified in the junk corporate bond market.
Pricing started to improve on 3/25/20 after the FED intervened in the investment grade bond market through purchases of ETFs, thereby providing much needed liquidity in that massive market.
GDO's net asset value was reported at $13.62 on 3/23 and had improved to $15.28 as of 3/27 or a 12.2% increase in just 4 trading days.
Dividend: Monthly at $.101 per share ($1.212 annually)
There is some ROC support.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/23/20
Maximum Position: 500 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
Average Cost Per Share: $15.76
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 7.69%
Highest Cost Lot: Will be sold when I can do so profitably.
B. Restarted NBB-Bought 20 at $19.4; 5 at $18.5; 5 at $17.74; 5 at $16.67:
Quote: NBB - Nuveen Build America Bond Fund
Last Closing Price (4/9): NBB $19.76 +$0.19 +0.97%
Last Closing Price (4/9): NBB $19.76 +$0.19 +0.97%
SEC Filings
Leveraged: Yes at 38.09% as of 3/31/20, through reverse repurchase agreement.
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report: Period ending 9/30/2019
Credit Quality:
Portfolio Holdings as of 12/31/2019: SEC Filing
Dividend: Monthly at $.0925 per share ($1.11 annually)
Average Cost Per Share: $18.65
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.95%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/14/20
Last Round-Trip: Item # 3.B. Sold 40 NBB at $19.84-Used Commission Free Trade (1/20/19 Post)- Item # 1.B. Bought 30 NBB at $19.03 and 10 at $18.76 (12/2/18 Post)
Data Date of 3/12/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $22.66
Closing Market Price: $19.39
Discount: -10.85%
Data Date of 3/18/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $20.54
Closing Market Price: $17.32
Discount: -18.21%
Sourced: NBB- CEF Connect
Average Effective Duration: 11.16 years (as of 2/28/20)
For a bond fund with that duration, the rule of thumb is that a 1% rise in interest rates would cause about a 10% loss in value. Similarly, a 1% decline would result in a 10% rise in value. Get to know your bond fund: Duration | Vanguard
The primary risk is interest rate risk due to the long duration.
Another risk is the the municipal bond market lacks liquidity. Over the past several weeks, that market has had periods of dysfunctional pricing, which means in this context, the yield spreads have become untethered to treasuries.
Some Prior Trade Links:
Item # 3 Sold 50 NBB in Roth IRA: Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 2/26/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $62.98)-Item # 1 Bought 50 NBB at $19.51 in a Roth IRA: Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 10/21/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 2 Sold 100 NBB at $21.25 (Roth IRA)(2/27/15 Post)(profit snapshot $101.7)-Item # 1 Roth IRA: Added 100 NBB at $20.1 (6/14/14 Post); Item # 2 Added 50 NBB at $18.55 (6/29/13 Post); Item # 1 Bought 50 NBB at $20.73-ROTH IRA (6/8/12 Post); Item # 1 Sold 100 NBB at $20.13-ROTH IRA (11/22/2011 Post); Item # 3 Sold 100 NBB at $20.07 (11/4/11 Post); Item # 1 Sold 50 NBB at $19.24 in the Regular IRA (12/3/2010 Post)- Item # 5 Bought: 50 NBB at $18.4 (11/18/2010 Post)
There is an unleveraged ETF that owns Build America Bonds: BAB Fund - Invesco Taxable Municipal Bond ETF Overview
NBB Trading Profits To Date: $516.12
Leveraged: Yes at 38.09% as of 3/31/20, through reverse repurchase agreement.
Credit Quality:
Dividend: Monthly at $.0925 per share ($1.11 annually)
Average Cost Per Share: $18.65
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.95%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/14/20
Last Round-Trip: Item # 3.B. Sold 40 NBB at $19.84-Used Commission Free Trade (1/20/19 Post)- Item # 1.B. Bought 30 NBB at $19.03 and 10 at $18.76 (12/2/18 Post)
Data Date of 3/12/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $22.66
Closing Market Price: $19.39
Discount: -10.85%
Data Date of 3/18/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $20.54
Closing Market Price: $17.32
Discount: -18.21%
Sourced: NBB- CEF Connect
Average Effective Duration: 11.16 years (as of 2/28/20)
For a bond fund with that duration, the rule of thumb is that a 1% rise in interest rates would cause about a 10% loss in value. Similarly, a 1% decline would result in a 10% rise in value. Get to know your bond fund: Duration | Vanguard
The primary risk is interest rate risk due to the long duration.
Another risk is the the municipal bond market lacks liquidity. Over the past several weeks, that market has had periods of dysfunctional pricing, which means in this context, the yield spreads have become untethered to treasuries.
Some Prior Trade Links:
Item # 3 Sold 50 NBB in Roth IRA: Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 2/26/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $62.98)-Item # 1 Bought 50 NBB at $19.51 in a Roth IRA: Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 10/21/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 2 Sold 100 NBB at $21.25 (Roth IRA)(2/27/15 Post)(profit snapshot $101.7)-Item # 1 Roth IRA: Added 100 NBB at $20.1 (6/14/14 Post); Item # 2 Added 50 NBB at $18.55 (6/29/13 Post); Item # 1 Bought 50 NBB at $20.73-ROTH IRA (6/8/12 Post); Item # 1 Sold 100 NBB at $20.13-ROTH IRA (11/22/2011 Post); Item # 3 Sold 100 NBB at $20.07 (11/4/11 Post); Item # 1 Sold 50 NBB at $19.24 in the Regular IRA (12/3/2010 Post)- Item # 5 Bought: 50 NBB at $18.4 (11/18/2010 Post)
There is an unleveraged ETF that owns Build America Bonds: BAB Fund - Invesco Taxable Municipal Bond ETF Overview
3. Small Ball:
A. Restarted BDN-Bought 10 at $9.27; 5 at $8.7; 5 at $7.79:
Quote: Brandywine Realt (BDN)
Last Closing Price: BDN $11.49 +$0.81 +7.58%
Company Website: Brandywine Realty Trust
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report (as of 12/31/19, BDN owned 95 properties that contain an aggregate of approximately 16.7 million net rentable square feet and consist of 86 office properties and four mixed-use properties . . ., one development property and four redevelopment properties . . . . The properties are located in or near Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Austin, Texas; Metropolitan Washington, D.C.; Southern New Jersey; and Wilmington, Delaware. As of December 31, 2019, the properties, excluding properties under development and redevelopment, were approximately 93.0% occupied." at page 24).
Company Profile | Reuters.com
Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN) Key Developments | Reuters.com
Last Round-Trip: Item # 2.B. Sold 101+ BDN at $15.33 (11/9/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $100.4)(discussed third quarter report in that post)-Item # 2.A. Bought 100 BDN at $14.34-Commission free trade (7/17/19 Post)
Note the last purchase was a 100 share lot and the first purchase in the current chain was 10 shares. This is a simple risk reduction technique used during the period of heightened uncertainty.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share ($.76 annually)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 4/6/20 (all purchases owned)
Average Cost Per Share: $8.76
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 8.68%
2019 Dividend Tax Classification (some ROC):
5 Year Chart:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
BDN had no outstanding draws under its $600M unsecured credit facility as of 12/31/19. I have not seen any press release to date announcing a drawdown.
The company used the proceeds of two bond offerings completed last October to pay down its revolving credit facility and for other general corporate purposes "to the extent the facility is fully repaid". Prospectus (see use of proceeds at page S-3; $200M in principal amount of which $100M was from a 4.1% SU note maturing in 2024 and the other $100M was from a 4.55% SU note maturing in 2029).
BDN had $90.5M in cash as of 12/31/19.
Sourced: SEC Filed Press Release
On 4/7/20, Citigroup downgraded BDN to sell and lowered its price target to $8 from $17. I do not have access to that report. I would note that the price closed at $9.75 on 4/6 and at $11.49 on 4/9, moving up 17.85% after the downgrade.
I will flip this stock for relatively small gains, preferably after 1 ex dividend date which occurred after my purchases on 4/6/20.
B. Added 5 TPVG at $11.1; 5 at $10.7; 5 at $8.2; 5 at $6.92; 2 at $5.61;2 at $5.35; 2 at $4.45; 2 at $4; 2 at $3.5; 2 at $2.99; 5 at $4.96;
A. Restarted BDN-Bought 10 at $9.27; 5 at $8.7; 5 at $7.79:
Quote: Brandywine Realt (BDN)
Last Closing Price: BDN $11.49 +$0.81 +7.58%
Company Website: Brandywine Realty Trust
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report (as of 12/31/19, BDN owned 95 properties that contain an aggregate of approximately 16.7 million net rentable square feet and consist of 86 office properties and four mixed-use properties . . ., one development property and four redevelopment properties . . . . The properties are located in or near Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Austin, Texas; Metropolitan Washington, D.C.; Southern New Jersey; and Wilmington, Delaware. As of December 31, 2019, the properties, excluding properties under development and redevelopment, were approximately 93.0% occupied." at page 24).
Company Profile | Reuters.com
Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN) Key Developments | Reuters.com
Last Round-Trip: Item # 2.B. Sold 101+ BDN at $15.33 (11/9/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $100.4)(discussed third quarter report in that post)-Item # 2.A. Bought 100 BDN at $14.34-Commission free trade (7/17/19 Post)
Note the last purchase was a 100 share lot and the first purchase in the current chain was 10 shares. This is a simple risk reduction technique used during the period of heightened uncertainty.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share ($.76 annually)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 4/6/20 (all purchases owned)
Average Cost Per Share: $8.76
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 8.68%
2019 Dividend Tax Classification (some ROC):
The company used the proceeds of two bond offerings completed last October to pay down its revolving credit facility and for other general corporate purposes "to the extent the facility is fully repaid". Prospectus (see use of proceeds at page S-3; $200M in principal amount of which $100M was from a 4.1% SU note maturing in 2024 and the other $100M was from a 4.55% SU note maturing in 2029).
BDN had $90.5M in cash as of 12/31/19.
Sourced: SEC Filed Press Release
On 4/7/20, Citigroup downgraded BDN to sell and lowered its price target to $8 from $17. I do not have access to that report. I would note that the price closed at $9.75 on 4/6 and at $11.49 on 4/9, moving up 17.85% after the downgrade.
I will flip this stock for relatively small gains, preferably after 1 ex dividend date which occurred after my purchases on 4/6/20.
B. Added 5 TPVG at $11.1; 5 at $10.7; 5 at $8.2; 5 at $6.92; 2 at $5.61;2 at $5.35; 2 at $4.45; 2 at $4; 2 at $3.5; 2 at $2.99; 5 at $4.96;
Last Closing Price (9/9): TPVG $7.26 +$0.08 +1.11%
TPVG SEC Filings
Website: TriplePoint Venture Growth
Chart:
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 23; list of investments starts at page 72; unfunded commitment discussion list at page 61) The company owned 278,747 shares of CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) as of 12/31/2019 (page 81), which, if not already sold, could be used as a source of capital.
Last month, TPVG sold $60M in 4.5% senior unsecured notes maturing in 2025. SEC Filed Press Release
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 3/13/20
If that penny rate is not cut, the dividend yield at the closing price on 4/10 would be 19.83%. Money will double in 3.83 years at that rate.
The current stock price reflects an opinion that the dividend rate will soon be slashed or even eliminated and the TPVG's survival is in serious doubt. It remains to be see whether the future forecast embedded in the price prove prescient or overly pessimistic or somewhere in between. Price sends a signal about the future, but the humans making that future forecast are not able to predict the future, though many are under the impression that they can.
Prior to these small ball purchases, I had reduced my position to 20+ shares through a series of sell transaction that netted in realized gains.
The last sell was in August 2019 and pared the position down to 20+ shares. Item # 2.A. Pared TPVG-Sold 14 shares at $15.61-Used Commission Free Trade (9/1/2019 Post)
Realized TPVG Gains to Date: +$699.27
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Sold 74+ TPVG at $14.87 (7/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot= $246.43); Item # 4.C. Eliminated TPVG in Roth IRA Account (4/17/19 Post)(profit snapshot= $88.87); Item # 3.B.(4/14/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $71.76); Item 3.A. Sold 40 TPVG at $13.44-Schwab Account and Item #3B Sold 50 TPVG at $13.39 Vanguard Roth IRA (3/13/19 Post)(profit snapshots included); Item 2.B. Sold 50 TPVG at $13.39 (3/4/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $153.08); Item # 3 Sold 50 TPVG at $12.33 (1/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.48)
Buy Discussions: Item # 4.A. Bought 50 TPVG at $12.11-In A Roth IRA Account (12/5/18 Post); Item # 3 D. Bought 10 TPVG at $11.2-Used Commission Free Trade (1/9/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 50 TPVG at $12.11-In A Roth IRA Account (12/5/18 Post); Item # 3.A. Added 50 TPVG at $13.28 and 10 at $13.02-Used Schwab Commission Free Trades (8/15/18 Post); Item # 2.B. Added 10 TPVG at $11.6-Used Commission Free Trade (3/19/18 Post); Items 1.B. and 1.C. Bought 50 TPVG at $12.32 and 10 at $12.01-Used Commission Free Trades (2/26/18 Post); Comment Blog # 3-South Gent: Bought 50 TPVG at $10.61 | Seeking Alpha
This BDC had its IPO in March 2014. The offering price was $15.
12/31/19: $13.34
9/30/19: $13.47
12/31/18: $13.50
9/30/18: $13.59
12/31/17: $13.25
9/30/17: $13.39
9/30/16: $13.44
9/30/15: $14.52
9/30/14: $14.64
Last Earnings Report (12/31/19): This will probably be the last positive earnings report for awhile.
Weighted average yield on debt investments: 15.3%
"As of December 31, 2019, the Company had total liquidity of $64.1 million, consisting of cash of $26.4 million and available capacity under its revolving credit facility of $37.7 million, subject to existing advance rates, terms and covenants. The Company ended the quarter with a 1.01x leverage ratio.
For the fourth quarter of 2019, the Company recorded net investment income of $11.1 million, or $0.45 per share, as compared to $10.2 million, or $0.41 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2018
During the fourth quarter of 2019, the Company recorded $1.2 million, or $0.05 per share, of net realized gains on investments,
The Company’s net increase in net assets resulting from operations for the fourth quarter of 2019 was $5.6 million, or $0.23 per share
As of December 31, 2019, the Company’s net assets were $332.5 million, or $13.34 per share, as compared to $335.4 million, or $13.47 per share, as of September 30, 2019."
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2019 Financial Results
TriplePoint Venture Growth (TPVG) CEO James Labe on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha (at page 3, TPVG claimed "that 96% of our floating rate loans have a prime floor set to 4.25% or higher. So we are well-positioned in a decreasing rate environment, especially given our warehouse credit facility is based on a variable rate as well.")
The next earnings report will likely be released in early May.
In addition to Crowdstrike mentioned above, TVPG had minor equity stakes in 2 other companies that are now public companies. Those are Casper Sleep and 48,616 shares of Medallia Inc (MDLA) (page 80, annual report).
The company did sell its Farfetch common stock during the 2019 4th quarter realizing a $1.4M gain (page 4 earnings call transcript)
Equity investments include common stock, preferred stock that is convertible into common stock and warrants that are generally part of a loan deal.
Recent Equity Offering: 5.75M shares (including greenshoe) sold at a public offering price of $14.08 last January. TPVG received net proceeds of $78.5M (page 6 of earnings call transcript)
Current Position: 71+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $8.4
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 17.14% (assumes no cut, which is NOT the market's assumption embedded in the current price)
Purchase Restriction: I had been using the small ball restriction until I bought some shares at $2.99 on 3/19 and now I will use the restriction that each subsequent purchase has to reduce my average cost per share.
On 4/1/20, Janney cuts its PT to $9 from $14 and maintained its neutral rating.
On 4/2/20, Compass Point cut its PT to $8 from $14.25, but raised its rating to buy from neutral.
I do not have access to those reports.
I bought 5 shares of a TPVG exchange traded bond and discuss that nibble in Item # 4.C. below.
C. Added 5 RF at $10.37: 5 at $9.3; 5 at $8; 5 at $7.5:
RF Analyst Estimates
Last Closing Price (9/9): RF $11.01 +$0.90 +8.90%
Regions, "with $126 billion in assets, is a member of the S&P 500 Index and is one of the nation’s largest full-service providers of consumer and commercial banking, wealth management, and mortgage products and services. Regions serves customers across the South, Midwest and Texas, and through its subsidiary, Regions Bank, operates approximately 1,400 banking offices and 2,000 ATMs."
2019 Annual Report
5 Year Financial Data:
SEC Filings
RF Information as of 9/9/20:
Chart: Cratered Like Other Regional Banks
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.F. Added 5 RF at $15; 5 at $14.7; 5 at $14.15; 5 at $13.63 (2/29/20 Post) The consensus 2020 E.P.S. estimate was then at $1.62.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.155 per ($.62 annually)
Dividend History | Regions Financial Corporation
Last Ex Dividend date: 3/5/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Dividend Yield at Average Cost of $12.52: 4.95%
Current Position: 55+ shares
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
NIM: 3.39%
Efficiency Ratio: 58.1% adjusted basis
Charge Off Ratio: .46%
NPL Ratio: .61%
Tangible Common Book Value Per Share = $10.58
Loan to Deposit Ratio: .85%
GAAP Earnings:
Asset Quality:
Regions reports 2019 earnings from continuing operations of $1.5 billion, and earnings per share of $1.50, up 10 percent
The next earnings is scheduled to be released on 4/17.
One source of bank stock weakness is the suspension of share buybacks. Regions Financial Corp. Temporarily Suspends Share Buyback Program (3/16/20)
On 4/9/20, J P Morgan lowered its PT to $13 from $18.5 and reiterated its overweight rating.
On 4/8/20, Barclays cut its PT to $14. from $19 and reiterated it under underweight rating.
I do not have access to those reports.
I do have a question however.
Are those analysts predicting the future or merely describing a car crash that has already happened before they decided to say there has been a car crash, a bad one in fact.
Too bad for the passengers on board.
And, when and if conditions improve and the price runs to say $16, then the upgrades will come. Buy high and sell low, advice that is apparently worth millions.
Last Closing Price (9/9): RF $11.01 +$0.90 +8.90%
Regions, "with $126 billion in assets, is a member of the S&P 500 Index and is one of the nation’s largest full-service providers of consumer and commercial banking, wealth management, and mortgage products and services. Regions serves customers across the South, Midwest and Texas, and through its subsidiary, Regions Bank, operates approximately 1,400 banking offices and 2,000 ATMs."
2019 Annual Report
5 Year Financial Data:
RF Information as of 9/9/20:
Chart: Cratered Like Other Regional Banks
Dividend: Quarterly at $.155 per ($.62 annually)
Dividend History | Regions Financial Corporation
Last Ex Dividend date: 3/5/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Dividend Yield at Average Cost of $12.52: 4.95%
Current Position: 55+ shares
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
NIM: 3.39%
Efficiency Ratio: 58.1% adjusted basis
Charge Off Ratio: .46%
NPL Ratio: .61%
Tangible Common Book Value Per Share = $10.58
Loan to Deposit Ratio: .85%
GAAP Earnings:
The next earnings is scheduled to be released on 4/17.
One source of bank stock weakness is the suspension of share buybacks. Regions Financial Corp. Temporarily Suspends Share Buyback Program (3/16/20)
On 4/9/20, J P Morgan lowered its PT to $13 from $18.5 and reiterated its overweight rating.
On 4/8/20, Barclays cut its PT to $14. from $19 and reiterated it under underweight rating.
I do not have access to those reports.
I do have a question however.
Are those analysts predicting the future or merely describing a car crash that has already happened before they decided to say there has been a car crash, a bad one in fact.
Too bad for the passengers on board.
And, when and if conditions improve and the price runs to say $16, then the upgrades will come. Buy high and sell low, advice that is apparently worth millions.
D. Added 5 SJR at $16.88; 5 at $16.4; 5 at $15.8; 1 at $12.48 :
Quotes:
USD Priced Shares: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (SJR)
CAD Priced Shares: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (Canada: Toronto)
Last Closing Price (9/9): SJR $16.37 +$0.10 +0.61%
Investor Relations
Shaw Companies, Corporate Divisions | About - Shaw - Shaw.ca
Shaw Communications Inc (USA) Profile | Reuters
Shaw Communications Inc Key Developments | Reuters
Only Sell Discussion: Item # 3.B. Sold 50 SJR at $20.85-Highest Cost Lot (11/27/19 Post)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.C. (3/7/20 Post)
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 2.C. (2/8/20 Post)(discussed earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending 11/30/19 in that post)
Dividend: Monthly at C$.098542 or C$1.18 annually (converted into USDs for owners of NYSE traded SJR)
Dividend yield will depend on the CAD/USD conversion rate at the time of each payment.
Dividends are subject to a 15% Canadian withholding tax when the position is held in a U.S. citizens taxable account. No tax is withheld when a U.S. citizen owns the stock in their retirement account (IRA or Keogh).
Next Ex Dividend: 4/14/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
SJR Chart:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 2/29/20): This report was released after all purchases. Shaw Announces Second Quarter and Year-to-Date Fiscal 2020 Results
Notwithstanding the uncertainty created by the pandemic, Shaw expects free cash flow this year will be in line with prior estimates.
E.P.S. C$.32, up from C$30 in year ago quarter
Revenue at C$1.36B, up from C$1.32B
Free Cash Flow up 20%
Added 54,000 new monthly wireless subscribers
Average billing per user was $43.84, a 6.4% increase Y-O-Y
Shaw warns that Freedom Mobile isn't adding as many customers as planned due to COVID-19 | CBC News
Prior Earnings Report (Q/E 11/31/19): Shaw Announces First Quarter Fiscal 2020
Current Position: 129+ shares
Maximum Position: 200 Shares
Average Cost per share = $18.52
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain (excluding shares purchased with dividend): 50 shares at $19.7, which will be sold when and if the price clears $20.
Lowest Cost lot: Bought at $12.45 (3/23/20)
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.
In a report dated 1/15/20, available for review without a subscription by Schwab brokerage customers, Morningstar assigns a narrow moat and 4 star rating. The analyst has a FV estimate of $22.
E. Added 5 OFS at $9.66; 5 at $9.2; 5 at $8.7; 5 at $6; and 5 at $5.65; 2 at $4.8; 2 at $3.7; 10 at $3.79 :
Quote: OFS Capital Corp. (OFS)-A BDC
Last Closing Price (9/9): OFS $4.86 +$0.3400 +7.52%
Market Capitalization at $4.86: about $65.08M
52 Week Price Range: $3.39-$12.81
Chart: Widow Maker Bear Market
Website: Homepage - OFS Capital
OFS SEC Filings
Management: External
2019 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 27 and ends at page 55)
List of investments start at page 95.
Industry sector classification starts at page 123.
5 Year Financial Data:
Chart: The potential risks are illustrated in this chart
Net Asset Value Per Share History: As I noted in my last post discussing OFS, the recent decline in net asset value per share was worrisome and that was before the pandemic's onset.
12/31/19: $12.46
9/30/19: $12.74 (14.31% decline from 12/31/16)
6/30/19: $12.95 Page 2 10-Q
3/31/19 $13.04 10-Q
12/31/18 $13.10
6/30/18 $13.70
03/31/18 $13.67
12/31/17 $14.12
12/31/16 $14.82
12/31/15 $14.76
12/31/14 $14.24
12/31/13 $14.54
IPO Offering Price at $15 (November 2012) with proceeds after the underwriters' discount at $13.05 Final Prospectus Supplement
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.B. Sold 10 OFS at $12.04(11/30/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Sold 60 shares at $12 (11/13/19 Post)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.A. Bought 10 OFS at $11.06 (12/22/19 Post); Item # 3B. Bought 10 OFS at $9.95 and 20 at $9.61 Using Fidelity Commission Free Trades (1/9/19 Post)
Trading Profits to Date: $137.02
Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share ($1.36 annually)
The current share price reflects an opinion that the dividend will be slashed or eliminated altogether. The dividend yield at $4.86, the last closing price, is about 27.98%. At that rate, money will double in about 2.81 years before adjusting for taxes and inflation.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/23/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
"90% of our total portfolio consisted of senior secured loans"
"At December 31, 2019, the Parent had $13.4 million of cash and cash equivalents available for general corporate activities, including approximately $1.9 million held by SBIC I LP that was available for distribution to the Parent.
Additionally, as of December 31, 2019, we had $69.0 million of borrowings available through our senior secured revolving credit facility with Pacific Western Bank, as well as unused commitments of $93.6 million under the BNP Facility."
OFS Capital Corporation Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results
Current Position: 105+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $8.63
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 15.76% (assumes no dividend cut, which is not the market's assumption)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
G. Added 10 GOOD at $16.7; 10 at $16.4; 10 at $16; 10 at $15.7; 5 at $14.2; 5 at $13.6; 5 at $12.8 and 5 at $12.1; 2 at $11.4; 2 at 10.85; 2 at $9.5:
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)
Last Closing Price (9/9): GOOD $14.84 +$1.28 +9.44%
Website: Gladstone Commercial | Monthly Dividend REIT
Commercial Real Estate Map
Company COVID-19 Disclosure: Gladstone Commercial Corporation Provides Corporate (3/24/20)
Chart:
Dividend: Monthly at $.12515 per share ($1.5018 annually)
Distribution History | Gladstone Commercial Corporation
Average Cost Per Share: $15.11
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 9.94%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/19/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.C. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account-Sold 50+ at $20.88 and Item # 1.D. Sold Highest Cost GOOD Share in Fidelity Account at $21.36 (3/3/19 Post)
5 Years of Financial Data:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): SEC Filed News Release
For the Years Ending 12/31/19 and 12/3/18:
Gladstone Commercial Corporation Reports Results for the Fourth Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2019
Other Recent News: Gladstone Commercial Announces $30.3 Million Industrial Acquisition in Crandall, GA ("The initial capitalization rate for the acquisition was 6.3%, with an average capitalization rate of 6.9% . . The property is 100% leased to Haier US Appliance Solutions, Inc. (DBA GE Appliances), a wholly-owned subsidiary of worldwide appliance leader Haier Smart Home (SHSE: 600690). Constructed in 2020 as a build-to-suit with ten and one-half (10.5) years of remaining lease term, the tenant utilizes the property to import and distribute appliance components . .. The facility serves as the Tenant’s core import and distribution facility for its nearby manufacturing facilities across the south.')
H. Added 5 FHN at $8.56; 5 at $7.7; 1 at $7.41 :
Quote: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)
Last Closing Price: FHN $9.50 +$0.92 +10.72%
First Horizon National Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy (profit snapshots = $51,611.26)
"First Horizon National Corp. provides financial services through First Horizon Bank, First Horizon Advisors, and FHN Financial businesses. The banking subsidiary was founded in 1864 and has the largest deposit market share in Tennessee. The company operates approximately 270 bank locations across the Southeast U.S. and 29 FHN Financial offices across the entire U.S. First Horizon Advisors wealth management group has more than 300 financial professionals and about $4.8 billion in assets under management. FHN Financial is a capital markets industry leader in fixed income sales, trading and strategies for institutional customers in the U.S. and abroad."
10 Year Chart:
Needless to say, I would have been better off waiting to buy until the swan dive shown on the right side was at or near its denouement splash into a concrete floor.
Last Buy Discussion: Stocks, Bonds & Politics:Item # 2.B. Bought 5 FHN at $14.77; 10 at $13.70; 5 at $12.73; 5 at $11.46; 5 at $10.8; 5 at $10.3 and 5 at $9.12 (3/14/20 Post)
I discussed the last earnings report in Item # 1.; First Horizon Releases 2019 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results
Current Position: 124+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $13.33
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 ($.56 annually)
Dividend Yield at $13.33:
Last Ex Dividend: 3/12/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next buy has to be below $7.41)
I discuss an FHN bond purchase below.
I. Restarted NOBL: Bought 1 at $57.82; 1 at $55.56; 1 at 54.9 (a Fidelity Account); and 1 at $55.87; 1 at $57.98 (a Vanguard Account):
Quote: ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF Overview
Last Closing Price: NOBL $62.79 +$1.23 +2.01%
Sponsor's Website: ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) ("The only ETF that focuses exclusively on companies in the S&P 500 that have grown dividends for at least 25 consecutive years.")
Last Elimination: Item # 2.D. Sold 5 NOBL at $74.28 (12/4/19 Post)- Item # 5.A. Bought 5 NOBL at $66.39 (3/23/19 Post)
I did not get far before deciding to bail last December. I am starting out even slower now, notwithstanding the much lower prices.
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend: 3/25/20
Current Position: 5 shares
Maximum Position: 200 shares (2 account total)
J. Eliminated Remaining MSPRA-Sold 10 MSPRA at $18.21; 5 at $18.1 and 10 at $19.95 (sold after ex dividend date):
Quote: Morgan Stanley Non-Cumulative Series A Preferred Stock
Profit Snapshots: $49.4 (25 shares)
Last Discussion: Item # 5.A. Bought 100 MSPRA at $16.57 and Sold 90 at $17.5 (3/21/20 Post) The 10 shares sold at $19.94 were the remaining shares left out of that 100 lot purchase. I did not discuss the other purchases.
Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities
Security: MSPRA is an equity preferred stock that pays non-cumulative and qualified dividends at the greater of 4% or .7% above the 3 month Libor rate on a $25 par value. Prospectus
Stopper Clause: Yes
Maturity: None but issuer may exercise its optional redemption right at anytime.
MSPRA Trading Profits to Date: +$2,311.14 (snapshots at Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities)
4. Asia Pacific Ex Japan Adds:
A. Bought 10 EAI at $20.43:
Quote: EAI | Entergy Arkansas LLC First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 Overview
Last Closing Price (9/9): EAI $25.03 +$0.28 +1.13%
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds as a sub-category of Exchange Traded Bonds
Issuer: Whole owned subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)
ETR 2019 Annual Report :
EAI Chart as of 3/19:
Credit Ratings:
Last Round-Trips:
Item # 4.B. Sold 30 EAI at $24.7-Used Commission Free Trade (5/18/19 Post)(profit snapshot =$50.21)-Item # 5.A. Bought 10 EAI at $21.73-Used Commission Free Trade (12/16/18 Post), Item # 3 Bought 20 EAI at $23.68 - Used Commission Free Trade (10/7/18 Post)
Item # 4.B. Sold 30 EAI at $24.73-Used Commission Free Trade (3/17/19 Post)-(profit Snapshot= 17.36)-Item # 4.A. Bought 30 EAI at $24.12 (5/24/18 Post)
Item # 3.A. Sold 50 EAI at $24.84 (8/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $34.57)
Security: Prospectus
First Mortgage Bond on substantially all assets
Par Value: $25
Optional Redemption Date: or or after 9/1/21
Maturity Date: 9/1/2066 unless redeemed earlier at issuer's option
Interest Rate Risk: Asymmetric in favor of issuer
Yield at TC = 5.97%
Last $1K Par Value Transactions: Item # 4.A. Sold 1 Entergy Arkansas 3.05% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 6/1/23 at 102.73 (9/28/19 Post); Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 3.C. Sold 1 Entergy Arkansas 3.05% First Mortgage Bond at 101.527 A(7/9/19 Post)
B. Bought 10 ELC at $20.64:
Quote: ELC | Entergy Louisiana LLC First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% Series due 2066 Overview
Last Closing Price: ELC $25.28 +$0.83 +3.39%
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)
2019 ETR Annual Report
ELC Chart as of 3/19/20:
Note the similarity with the EAI chart above.
ELC Credit Ratings:
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a sub-category of Exchange Traded Bonds
Interest Payments: Quarterly/trades flat
Last Ex Interest Date: 2/27/20
Yield at Total Cost:
Current Position: 10 shares
Perhaps I could have been more enthusiastic.
Security: Prospectus
First Mortgage on substantially all assets
Par Value: $25
Issuer Optional Redemption: on or after 9/1/21
Maturity Date: 9/1/66, unless redeemed early at issuer's option
Interest Rate Risk: Asymmetric in favor of issuer
Last Transactions:
Item # 4.A. Sold Highest Cost ELC lot at $24.58-Used Commission Free Trade(2/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot= $91.58)-Item #3.A. Bought 10 ELC at $21.37-Used Commission Free Trade (12/12/18 Post); Item # 4.A. Added 20 ELC at $22.04-Used Commission Free Trade (12/17/18 Post)
Item # 4.A. Sold 30 ELC at $23.48-Used Commission Free Trade (2/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.22)
Item # 3.B. Sold 50 ELC at $24.77-Used Commission Free Trade(8/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $94.54)
Other Buy Discussions: Item # 2.B. Bought 50 ELC at $22.88 (5/15/17 Post); South Gent's Comment Blog # 6: Bought 30 ELC at $21.12 (11/26/16 Comment)
I also still own the following: Item # 3.B. Bought 1 Entergy Louisiana 3.3% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 12/1/2022 (4/23/18 Post)
C. Bought 5 TPVY at $21.95:
Quote: TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. 5.75% Notes due 2022 Overview
Last Closing Price(4/9) : TPVY $23.20 +$1.30 +5.94%
Security: Prospectus
Interest: Quarterly / trades flat
Capital Structure: Senior Unsecured debt
Par Value: $25
Maturity Date: 7/15/22
Callable at Par Value at issuer's option now
Payment Dates: January 15, April 15, July 15 and October 15
Last Ex Interest Date: 3/31/20 (before purchase)
Yield at $21.95 = 6.55%
A rough calculation of yield-to-maturity is about 13%, using this calculator and assigning a 2 year maturity date (only allows for years not months). Bond Yield Calculator The difference in the 6.55% current yield and the 13% YTM is the profit on the bond, which is part of the YTM calculation. The YTM number assumes that all interest payments will be made and the issuer will pay the principal amount on the maturity date.
I view this one as having far more credit risk, but far less potential interest rate risk, than the two potentially long term first mortgage bonds discussed above. I discuss the issuer in Item # 3.B. above.
I would not expect this issuer to redeem this bond early.
Quotes:
USD Priced Shares: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (SJR)
CAD Priced Shares: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (Canada: Toronto)
Last Closing Price (9/9): SJR $16.37 +$0.10 +0.61%
Investor Relations
Shaw Companies, Corporate Divisions | About - Shaw - Shaw.ca
Shaw Communications Inc (USA) Profile | Reuters
Shaw Communications Inc Key Developments | Reuters
Only Sell Discussion: Item # 3.B. Sold 50 SJR at $20.85-Highest Cost Lot (11/27/19 Post)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.C. (3/7/20 Post)
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 2.C. (2/8/20 Post)(discussed earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending 11/30/19 in that post)
Dividend: Monthly at C$.098542 or C$1.18 annually (converted into USDs for owners of NYSE traded SJR)
Dividend yield will depend on the CAD/USD conversion rate at the time of each payment.
Dividends are subject to a 15% Canadian withholding tax when the position is held in a U.S. citizens taxable account. No tax is withheld when a U.S. citizen owns the stock in their retirement account (IRA or Keogh).
Next Ex Dividend: 4/14/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
SJR Chart:
Notwithstanding the uncertainty created by the pandemic, Shaw expects free cash flow this year will be in line with prior estimates.
E.P.S. C$.32, up from C$30 in year ago quarter
Revenue at C$1.36B, up from C$1.32B
Free Cash Flow up 20%
Added 54,000 new monthly wireless subscribers
Average billing per user was $43.84, a 6.4% increase Y-O-Y
Shaw warns that Freedom Mobile isn't adding as many customers as planned due to COVID-19 | CBC News
Prior Earnings Report (Q/E 11/31/19): Shaw Announces First Quarter Fiscal 2020
Current Position: 129+ shares
Maximum Position: 200 Shares
Average Cost per share = $18.52
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain (excluding shares purchased with dividend): 50 shares at $19.7, which will be sold when and if the price clears $20.
Lowest Cost lot: Bought at $12.45 (3/23/20)
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.
In a report dated 1/15/20, available for review without a subscription by Schwab brokerage customers, Morningstar assigns a narrow moat and 4 star rating. The analyst has a FV estimate of $22.
E. Added 5 OFS at $9.66; 5 at $9.2; 5 at $8.7; 5 at $6; and 5 at $5.65; 2 at $4.8; 2 at $3.7; 10 at $3.79 :
Quote: OFS Capital Corp. (OFS)-A BDC
Last Closing Price (9/9): OFS $4.86 +$0.3400 +7.52%
Market Capitalization at $4.86: about $65.08M
52 Week Price Range: $3.39-$12.81
Chart: Widow Maker Bear Market
OFS SEC Filings
Management: External
2019 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 27 and ends at page 55)
List of investments start at page 95.
Industry sector classification starts at page 123.
5 Year Financial Data:
 |
| Page 64 Annual Report |
Net Asset Value Per Share History: As I noted in my last post discussing OFS, the recent decline in net asset value per share was worrisome and that was before the pandemic's onset.
12/31/19: $12.46
9/30/19: $12.74 (14.31% decline from 12/31/16)
6/30/19: $12.95 Page 2 10-Q
3/31/19 $13.04 10-Q
12/31/18 $13.10
6/30/18 $13.70
03/31/18 $13.67
12/31/17 $14.12
12/31/16 $14.82
12/31/15 $14.76
12/31/14 $14.24
12/31/13 $14.54
IPO Offering Price at $15 (November 2012) with proceeds after the underwriters' discount at $13.05 Final Prospectus Supplement
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.B. Sold 10 OFS at $12.04(11/30/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Sold 60 shares at $12 (11/13/19 Post)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.A. Bought 10 OFS at $11.06 (12/22/19 Post); Item # 3B. Bought 10 OFS at $9.95 and 20 at $9.61 Using Fidelity Commission Free Trades (1/9/19 Post)
Trading Profits to Date: $137.02
Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share ($1.36 annually)
The current share price reflects an opinion that the dividend will be slashed or eliminated altogether. The dividend yield at $4.86, the last closing price, is about 27.98%. At that rate, money will double in about 2.81 years before adjusting for taxes and inflation.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/23/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19):
"90% of our total portfolio consisted of senior secured loans"
Additionally, as of December 31, 2019, we had $69.0 million of borrowings available through our senior secured revolving credit facility with Pacific Western Bank, as well as unused commitments of $93.6 million under the BNP Facility."
OFS Capital Corporation Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results
Current Position: 105+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $8.63
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 15.76% (assumes no dividend cut, which is not the market's assumption)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
G. Added 10 GOOD at $16.7; 10 at $16.4; 10 at $16; 10 at $15.7; 5 at $14.2; 5 at $13.6; 5 at $12.8 and 5 at $12.1; 2 at $11.4; 2 at 10.85; 2 at $9.5:
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)
Last Closing Price (9/9): GOOD $14.84 +$1.28 +9.44%
Website: Gladstone Commercial | Monthly Dividend REIT
Commercial Real Estate Map
Company COVID-19 Disclosure: Gladstone Commercial Corporation Provides Corporate (3/24/20)
Chart:
Distribution History | Gladstone Commercial Corporation
Average Cost Per Share: $15.11
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 9.94%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/19/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.C. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account-Sold 50+ at $20.88 and Item # 1.D. Sold Highest Cost GOOD Share in Fidelity Account at $21.36 (3/3/19 Post)
5 Years of Financial Data:
Other Recent News: Gladstone Commercial Announces $30.3 Million Industrial Acquisition in Crandall, GA ("The initial capitalization rate for the acquisition was 6.3%, with an average capitalization rate of 6.9% . . The property is 100% leased to Haier US Appliance Solutions, Inc. (DBA GE Appliances), a wholly-owned subsidiary of worldwide appliance leader Haier Smart Home (SHSE: 600690). Constructed in 2020 as a build-to-suit with ten and one-half (10.5) years of remaining lease term, the tenant utilizes the property to import and distribute appliance components . .. The facility serves as the Tenant’s core import and distribution facility for its nearby manufacturing facilities across the south.')
H. Added 5 FHN at $8.56; 5 at $7.7; 1 at $7.41 :
Quote: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)
Last Closing Price: FHN $9.50 +$0.92 +10.72%
First Horizon National Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy (profit snapshots = $51,611.26)
"First Horizon National Corp. provides financial services through First Horizon Bank, First Horizon Advisors, and FHN Financial businesses. The banking subsidiary was founded in 1864 and has the largest deposit market share in Tennessee. The company operates approximately 270 bank locations across the Southeast U.S. and 29 FHN Financial offices across the entire U.S. First Horizon Advisors wealth management group has more than 300 financial professionals and about $4.8 billion in assets under management. FHN Financial is a capital markets industry leader in fixed income sales, trading and strategies for institutional customers in the U.S. and abroad."
10 Year Chart:
Last Buy Discussion: Stocks, Bonds & Politics:Item # 2.B. Bought 5 FHN at $14.77; 10 at $13.70; 5 at $12.73; 5 at $11.46; 5 at $10.8; 5 at $10.3 and 5 at $9.12 (3/14/20 Post)
I discussed the last earnings report in Item # 1.; First Horizon Releases 2019 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results
Current Position: 124+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $13.33
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 ($.56 annually)
Dividend Yield at $13.33:
Last Ex Dividend: 3/12/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next buy has to be below $7.41)
I discuss an FHN bond purchase below.
I. Restarted NOBL: Bought 1 at $57.82; 1 at $55.56; 1 at 54.9 (a Fidelity Account); and 1 at $55.87; 1 at $57.98 (a Vanguard Account):
Quote: ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF Overview
Last Closing Price: NOBL $62.79 +$1.23 +2.01%
Sponsor's Website: ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) ("The only ETF that focuses exclusively on companies in the S&P 500 that have grown dividends for at least 25 consecutive years.")
Last Elimination: Item # 2.D. Sold 5 NOBL at $74.28 (12/4/19 Post)- Item # 5.A. Bought 5 NOBL at $66.39 (3/23/19 Post)
I did not get far before deciding to bail last December. I am starting out even slower now, notwithstanding the much lower prices.
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Current Position: 5 shares
Maximum Position: 200 shares (2 account total)
J. Eliminated Remaining MSPRA-Sold 10 MSPRA at $18.21; 5 at $18.1 and 10 at $19.95 (sold after ex dividend date):
Quote: Morgan Stanley Non-Cumulative Series A Preferred Stock
Profit Snapshots: $49.4 (25 shares)
Last Discussion: Item # 5.A. Bought 100 MSPRA at $16.57 and Sold 90 at $17.5 (3/21/20 Post) The 10 shares sold at $19.94 were the remaining shares left out of that 100 lot purchase. I did not discuss the other purchases.
Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities
Security: MSPRA is an equity preferred stock that pays non-cumulative and qualified dividends at the greater of 4% or .7% above the 3 month Libor rate on a $25 par value. Prospectus
Stopper Clause: Yes
Maturity: None but issuer may exercise its optional redemption right at anytime.
MSPRA Trading Profits to Date: +$2,311.14 (snapshots at Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities)
4. Asia Pacific Ex Japan Adds:
A. Restarted MAPTX-Bought $100 at $23.12:
Quote: MAPTX | Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund-Investor Overview
Sponsor's Website: Overview - Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund
Last Elimination: Item # 1 Eliminated MAPTX at $27.9 (6/23/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $665.47)
Distributions: Annually, mostly sourced from long term capital gains
Top Ten Holdings:
Country Allocation:
B. Added $50 MCDFX at $14.14 AND $100 at $14.52:
Quote: MCDFX | Matthews China Dividend Fund Overview
Sponsor's website: Overview-Matthews China Dividend Fund
Morningstar Page
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 6.A. Added $50 to MCDFX at $14.43 (1/2/19 Post); Stocks, (10/28/18 Post)
Last Eliminations: Item # 3 Eliminated MCDFX-Sold 111+ at $17.95 (4/12/18 Post)
Prior Eliminations Profit Snapshots = $1,137.78:
Current Position: 48+ Shares
Average Cost Per Share: $15.17
Top 10 Holdings as of 3/31/20:
Dividend: Semi-Annually at a variable Rate:
C. Restarted CHN-Bought 10 at $19.1:
Quote: China Fund Inc. (CHN)-CEF
Sponsor's Website: The China Fund Inc.
Dividend History:
Top 10 Holdings as of 2/28/20:
Last Discussed Eliminations: Item # 1 Pared 95 of 200+ CHN Owned in a Taxable Account at $21.73 (4/19/15 Post) A 100 share lot was sold the next (Update On Closed End Fund Basket Strategy As Of 7/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha):
I sold in 2017 my remaining shares at a $62.81 loss, but at a positive total return with the dividends.
Data as of 4/9/2019 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $22.47
Closing Market Price: $19.1
Discount: -15%
Sourced: CHN China Fund-CEF Connect
The China Fund (Holdings as of 1/31/20)
China Fund Inc. (annual report for the period ending 10/31/19)
5. Exchange Traded Bonds: Sponsor's Website: Overview - Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund
Last Elimination: Item # 1 Eliminated MAPTX at $27.9 (6/23/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $665.47)
Distributions: Annually, mostly sourced from long term capital gains
Top Ten Holdings:
Country Allocation:
Sponsor's website: Overview-Matthews China Dividend Fund
Morningstar Page
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 6.A. Added $50 to MCDFX at $14.43 (1/2/19 Post); Stocks, (10/28/18 Post)
Last Eliminations: Item # 3 Eliminated MCDFX-Sold 111+ at $17.95 (4/12/18 Post)
Prior Eliminations Profit Snapshots = $1,137.78:
 |
| 2018 MCDFX 111+ Shares +$315.95 |
 |
| 2015 MCDFX 204+ Shares +$821.83 |
Average Cost Per Share: $15.17
Top 10 Holdings as of 3/31/20:
C. Restarted CHN-Bought 10 at $19.1:
Sponsor's Website: The China Fund Inc.
Dividend History:
 |
| Roth IRA +$302.47 |
Data as of 4/9/2019 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $22.47
Closing Market Price: $19.1
Discount: -15%
Sourced: CHN China Fund-CEF Connect
The China Fund (Holdings as of 1/31/20)
China Fund Inc. (annual report for the period ending 10/31/19)
A. Bought 10 EAI at $20.43:
Last Closing Price (9/9): EAI $25.03 +$0.28 +1.13%
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds as a sub-category of Exchange Traded Bonds
Issuer: Whole owned subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)
ETR 2019 Annual Report :
 |
| Page 106 |
Credit Ratings:
Item # 4.B. Sold 30 EAI at $24.7-Used Commission Free Trade (5/18/19 Post)(profit snapshot =$50.21)-Item # 5.A. Bought 10 EAI at $21.73-Used Commission Free Trade (12/16/18 Post), Item # 3 Bought 20 EAI at $23.68 - Used Commission Free Trade (10/7/18 Post)
Item # 4.B. Sold 30 EAI at $24.73-Used Commission Free Trade (3/17/19 Post)-(profit Snapshot= 17.36)-Item # 4.A. Bought 30 EAI at $24.12 (5/24/18 Post)
Item # 3.A. Sold 50 EAI at $24.84 (8/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $34.57)
Security: Prospectus
First Mortgage Bond on substantially all assets
Par Value: $25
Optional Redemption Date: or or after 9/1/21
Maturity Date: 9/1/2066 unless redeemed earlier at issuer's option
Interest Rate Risk: Asymmetric in favor of issuer
Yield at TC = 5.97%
Last $1K Par Value Transactions: Item # 4.A. Sold 1 Entergy Arkansas 3.05% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 6/1/23 at 102.73 (9/28/19 Post); Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 3.C. Sold 1 Entergy Arkansas 3.05% First Mortgage Bond at 101.527 A(7/9/19 Post)
B. Bought 10 ELC at $20.64:
Last Closing Price: ELC $25.28 +$0.83 +3.39%
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)
2019 ETR Annual Report
|
| Page 106 |
ELC Credit Ratings:
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a sub-category of Exchange Traded Bonds
Interest Payments: Quarterly/trades flat
Last Ex Interest Date: 2/27/20
Yield at Total Cost:
Current Position: 10 shares
Perhaps I could have been more enthusiastic.
Security: Prospectus
First Mortgage on substantially all assets
Par Value: $25
Issuer Optional Redemption: on or after 9/1/21
Maturity Date: 9/1/66, unless redeemed early at issuer's option
Interest Rate Risk: Asymmetric in favor of issuer
Last Transactions:
Item # 4.A. Sold Highest Cost ELC lot at $24.58-Used Commission Free Trade(2/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot= $91.58)-Item #3.A. Bought 10 ELC at $21.37-Used Commission Free Trade (12/12/18 Post); Item # 4.A. Added 20 ELC at $22.04-Used Commission Free Trade (12/17/18 Post)
Item # 4.A. Sold 30 ELC at $23.48-Used Commission Free Trade (2/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.22)
Item # 3.B. Sold 50 ELC at $24.77-Used Commission Free Trade(8/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $94.54)
Other Buy Discussions: Item # 2.B. Bought 50 ELC at $22.88 (5/15/17 Post); South Gent's Comment Blog # 6: Bought 30 ELC at $21.12 (11/26/16 Comment)
Last $1K Par Value Transactions: Item # 3.A. Sold 1 Entergy Louisiana 2.4% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 10/1/26 (7/9/19 Post) I currently own 1 of this issue.
I also still own the following: Item # 3.B. Bought 1 Entergy Louisiana 3.3% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 12/1/2022 (4/23/18 Post)
C. Bought 5 TPVY at $21.95:
Last Closing Price(4/9) : TPVY $23.20 +$1.30 +5.94%
Security: Prospectus
Interest: Quarterly / trades flat
Capital Structure: Senior Unsecured debt
Par Value: $25
Maturity Date: 7/15/22
Callable at Par Value at issuer's option now
Payment Dates: January 15, April 15, July 15 and October 15
Last Ex Interest Date: 3/31/20 (before purchase)
Yield at $21.95 = 6.55%
A rough calculation of yield-to-maturity is about 13%, using this calculator and assigning a 2 year maturity date (only allows for years not months). Bond Yield Calculator The difference in the 6.55% current yield and the 13% YTM is the profit on the bond, which is part of the YTM calculation. The YTM number assumes that all interest payments will be made and the issuer will pay the principal amount on the maturity date.
I view this one as having far more credit risk, but far less potential interest rate risk, than the two potentially long term first mortgage bonds discussed above. I discuss the issuer in Item # 3.B. above.
I would not expect this issuer to redeem this bond early.
6. Short Term Corporate Bonds as an Alternative to Money Market Funds:
A. Bought 2 First Horizon 3.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 12/15/20:
FINRA PAGE: Bond Detail (Prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
The bond can be redeemed at par value + accrued and unpaid interest on or after 11/15/20.
"Unless previously redeemed, the notes will mature on December 15, 2020. We may redeem the notes, in whole or, in the case of notes in a denomination greater than $250,000, in part, on or after November 15, 2020 (one month prior to maturity) at 100% of the principal amount of the notes, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the date of redemption."
Issuer: I discussed the issuer in Item #3.H. above.
Bought at a Total Cost of 97.1 (includes $1 Per bond commission)
YTM at Total Cost = 7.677%
B. Bought 2 Plum Creek Timber L.P. 4.7% SU Bonds Maturing on 3/15/21:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
The bond is fully and unconditionally guaranteed by the Plum Creek Timber Company. Issuer has the right to redeem at par value on or after 12/15/20. Given the coupon, I would anticipate that Plum Creek will redeem on 12/15/20.
Plum Creek was formerly a S & P 500 company that was acquired by Weyerhaeuser. Weyerhaeuser completes merger with Plum Creek
Weyerhaeuser reports fourth quarter, full year results
Weyerhaeuser (WY) is a REIT.
2019 Annual Report (debt listed starting at page 83)
This bond is now a WY obligation.
This is an actively traded bond.
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.9 (includes $1 per bond commission)
YTM at 98.9 = 5.876%
Bought at 98.8 (before commission)
Credit Ratings:
A. Bought 2 First Horizon 3.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 12/15/20:
FINRA PAGE: Bond Detail (Prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
The bond can be redeemed at par value + accrued and unpaid interest on or after 11/15/20.
"Unless previously redeemed, the notes will mature on December 15, 2020. We may redeem the notes, in whole or, in the case of notes in a denomination greater than $250,000, in part, on or after November 15, 2020 (one month prior to maturity) at 100% of the principal amount of the notes, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the date of redemption."
Issuer: I discussed the issuer in Item #3.H. above.
Bought at a Total Cost of 97.1 (includes $1 Per bond commission)
YTM at Total Cost = 7.677%
B. Bought 2 Plum Creek Timber L.P. 4.7% SU Bonds Maturing on 3/15/21:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
The bond is fully and unconditionally guaranteed by the Plum Creek Timber Company. Issuer has the right to redeem at par value on or after 12/15/20. Given the coupon, I would anticipate that Plum Creek will redeem on 12/15/20.
Plum Creek was formerly a S & P 500 company that was acquired by Weyerhaeuser. Weyerhaeuser completes merger with Plum Creek
Weyerhaeuser reports fourth quarter, full year results
Weyerhaeuser (WY) is a REIT.
2019 Annual Report (debt listed starting at page 83)
This bond is now a WY obligation.
This is an actively traded bond.
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.9 (includes $1 per bond commission)
YTM at 98.9 = 5.876%
Bought at 98.8 (before commission)
Credit Ratings:
C. Bought 2 CVS 2.8% SU Bonds Maturing on 7/20/20:
I now own 4 bonds.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: CVS Health Corp. (CVS)
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.1
YTM at 99.1 = 5.64%
6. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy (maturing in 3 to 10 years from date of purchase) :
A. Bought 1 Boston Properties 3.125% SU Maturing on 9/1/23-In A Roth IRA Account:
FIRNA Page: Bond Detail (Prospectus linked)
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.885
YTM at Total Cost = 3.475%
Current Yield at TC = 3.16%
Issuer: Operating entity for Boston Properties Inc. (BXP)
BXP SEC Filings
BXP and Boston Properties Limited Partnership 2019 Annual Report (unsecured senior debt is listed at page 154; property list starts at page 39; cash at $644.95M at page 108)
5 Year Financials (at page 96):
Credit ratings:
I previously sold all my BXP senior unsecured notes. The sells were not motivated by credit risk concerns. Instead, as an active bond trader, I was merely harvesting profits and then waiting for another opportunity to buy.
I last sold 2 of these bond at 100.231 in the same account. Item # 1.B. Sold 2 Boston Properties 3.125% SU Bonds Maturing on 9/1/2023 at 100.231 (5/1/2019) And, I sold 1 bond at 101: Item # 2.A. (1/8/18 Post)
I now own 4 bonds.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: CVS Health Corp. (CVS)
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.1
YTM at 99.1 = 5.64%
6. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy (maturing in 3 to 10 years from date of purchase) :
A. Bought 1 Boston Properties 3.125% SU Maturing on 9/1/23-In A Roth IRA Account:
FIRNA Page: Bond Detail (Prospectus linked)
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.885
YTM at Total Cost = 3.475%
Current Yield at TC = 3.16%
Issuer: Operating entity for Boston Properties Inc. (BXP)
BXP SEC Filings
BXP and Boston Properties Limited Partnership 2019 Annual Report (unsecured senior debt is listed at page 154; property list starts at page 39; cash at $644.95M at page 108)
5 Year Financials (at page 96):
I previously sold all my BXP senior unsecured notes. The sells were not motivated by credit risk concerns. Instead, as an active bond trader, I was merely harvesting profits and then waiting for another opportunity to buy.
I last sold 2 of these bond at 100.231 in the same account. Item # 1.B. Sold 2 Boston Properties 3.125% SU Bonds Maturing on 9/1/2023 at 100.231 (5/1/2019) And, I sold 1 bond at 101: Item # 2.A. (1/8/18 Post)
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
I accidentally left some blanks in this post where I was supposed to fill in the information, but failed to do so. I am correctly those omissions now.
ReplyDeleteThe problem usually arises when I inadvertently have the same post open in two windows. As I make edits on one, I close it and then notice the other one open and then close it without realizing that I had erased the changes since blogger had saved the only open post which did not include the edits.
When I open a post back up for edit, it can not be accessed until I hit the publish button again.
One of the omissions was my current position in TPVG, my average cost and dividend yield at average cost which I have now corrected.
For BDCs, the dividend yield calculation assumes a continuation of the current penny rate. That future assumption is not the one being forecasted by the Stock Jocks based on their current prices. Embedded in current prices is a forecast that the dividends will be cut IMO.
I also discussed in this post buying some Asia-Pacific. I believe that this regions is much further along than the U.S. or Europe in getting back to normal.
I received a notice yesterday from my auto insurance company that it would rebate 15% of my annual premium. All customers are receiving that rebate since the company is experiencing far fewer accidents which is not surprising. To have an accident, people would first have to take the car out of the garage and drive it.
A 6% France or 4.2% Germany, fall in GDP doesn't seem like much.
ReplyDelete100 to 94% isn't a steep decline. Am I missing something?
Do you know if there is requirement for CEO/Board members to buy shares of their stocks, if they fall below a certain amount (in many hiring contracts)?
ReplyDeleteThat would impact and reduce the value of knowing their was insider buying in downturns like these.
Land No, there is no requirement that officers and Board members have to buy stock.
DeleteAs to your other question, a 6% annual decline in GDP would increase unemployment around 12% or thereabouts. Economists call that Okun's law.
Corporate profits would decline significantly.
Government spending would increase as revenues declines, creating a large debt burden that will have to be serviced until the end of days and creating more potential for financial instability down the road.
Marginal businesses would likely go into bankruptcy while others survive but take years to recover due to a financially weakened condition cause by the recession.
Potential problems include a debt bomb implosion and large number of bank failures that would send the recession into a deeper down cycle with higher unemployment, more failed businesses, and a slower and much longer time to recover to pre-recession conditions.
It's the use of % that leaves me unclear.
DeleteA roaring 2.2GDP (our current delusion of roaring) with 6% drop is 2.068. At 3.0 GDP it'd be 2.88 GDP.
While less roaring, it's still in the range our GDP has traded in for the last few years.
Unemployment of 4% increases by 12% that's 4.48%.
I can understand that the CV situation can lead to all that is described.
A 6% drop in GDP seems like not much and like it wouldn't make that kind of dent. I'd expect a much better drop in GDP from all of this, since we already have unemployment reports that are more than 12% drops. These reported GDP estimates would seem like good news to me, as being less than we could expect.
I looked up Okun's law since I never heard of it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okun%27s_law
Sounds like for every 1% of unemployment increase, there's estimate of 2% hit on GDP.
With current unemployment increases, that would be huge hit to GDP in the USA.
I'm missing something about understanding the French and German estimates. However, it probably doesn't matter whether I get it.
So I'll go with the Okun's law 's eventual estimate of, this looks bad.
Land: The -4.2% GDP estimate for Germany is for 2020. Whatever recovery occurs in the second half will not offset the losses in the first half. The estimate has to assume a fairly robust second half since the first half will be a disaster and that the 9.9% decline in the second quarter is not too low. I would not be surprised to see negative 7% to 9% GDP growth this year in Germany based on slower than anticipate growth in the second half and bigger declines in the first half. GDP growth for Germany last year was tepid and had slowed to less than 1%.
DeleteThe 6% GDP contraction for France is just for the first quarter. The second quarter will be a disaster.
I would treat GDP forecasts now as more speculative than normal since no one really knows how long shutdowns will continue and whether an attempt to reopen for business will be met by another wave of infections.
J P Morgan has a negative 10% number for the first quarter and -20% for the second. That is a depression.
Others are not so pessimistic. I don't think the shutdowns in March would take the GDP number below 3% for the first quarter. 10% to 20% in the second quarter would be my range estimate for the second. Whatever the numbers turn out to be, they will be horrific and consequently a fast rebound in the 3rd and 4th quarters is of paramount importance. A recession continuing into the second half after depressionary conditions in the 2nd may be too much to overcome.
I settled down to lookup stocks and got calls about an online seders. It's a bunch of famous hollywood artists - to raise money for CDC's help fun. Most aren't Jewish, lol. But watching it now and it's fun. So if it's interesting: https://www.youtube.com/buzzfeedtasty
DeleteI should add, the humor this year has been that Passover is about being passed over for plagues by hiding in one's house. It just seems very apropos this year.
DeleteI was completely misunderstanding the number. It's not a 6% reduction of the usual estimate of growth. It's an absolute estimate of GDP growth/contraction, from what the economy is now doing.
DeleteSo usual current estimates are 2-3.5% GDP Postive GROWTH.
This has a minus in front, -6%. That's GDP contraction (from current GDP.)
Now that makes so much more sense.
All the details help too, of what's of 1st quarters, what's of 2nd with each country.
You're thinking -3% or more for 1st quarter. Negative -10 or -20% in 2nd.
All with economy flooded with rescue packages coming out at various times.
Question is how the 3rd and 4th quarters will look.
Thanks!
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteYour small ball strategy seems to work well in the current environment. I applied a slight variation by using about equal fund for each purchase at lower price so I ended up getting a little more shares at each down tick.
Y: I view the small ball trading strategy as an appropriate one for stock bear markets punctuated by robust rallies and high volatility typical of an Unstable Vix Pattern which is how my Vix Model defines the current environment.
DeleteThe strategy is not appropriate for a long term secular bull market when it would be better to buy before the price went up and then hold for much longer.
Since I am not in a capital growth mode, and do not need to own any stocks, the small ball is about all that I willing to do now.
The flip side for me is to sell the highest cost lots when and if I can do so profitably and then buy back those shares when and if the price either falls below my total average cost per share or below the lowest price in the chain, depending on the stock.
Most of my small ball purchases are really small lots that may gradually build up to a totally immaterial position (e.g. TPVG discussed in this post)
In some cases, I started off too early in the meltdown period with a 50 share buy, then bought 5 at a lower price and then said what the hell I will buy 45 to round it up to 100 shares. I will discuss one of those (DOC) in my next post. The 45 share lot was bought at $12.96. The first 50 share lot is now profitable so it may be sold.
Physicians Realty Trust
$16.61 $1.07 +$6.89%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/doc
In retrospect, I needed to be more aggressive on my exchange trade bond buys. One of those buys, a senior unsecured bond rated BBB-, which I will discuss down the road, is up over 100%.
The small ball is also tailored to my risk averse psychological condition.
If I had to make a large purchase during a meltdown, I would probably not to it.
The small ball keeps me in the game without causing a build up of regret that can cause a deer in the headlights look and approach, which is difficult to avoid when everything is plummeting fast and furious.
During several days in March, I was averaging down 2 or more times a name in the same stock.
I probably needed to omit a reference to Okun's law on the relationship between unemployment and GDP. The relationship predicted by Okun will be distorted by government policies that will keep people employed even when GDP numbers are plummeting.
ReplyDeleteIn Europe, for example, the governments are directly subsidizing employers to continue paying their employees. In Germany, worker hours are cut back, but they remain on the payroll for employers participating in a program where the government pays two-thirds of the regular salary and the employer pays nothing.
In France, the government will cover up to 84% of the salary.
With governments paying salaries, the number of unemployed will rise but the percentage increase will be small for as long as the governments continue with those direct payroll support programs.
France ended last year with a 8.5% unemployment rate. One projection has France's unemployment rate rising to 9.6% this year. The decline in GDP will far outstrip the percentage increase in unemployment.
The U.S. "paycheck protection" program in the CARES Act is less direct and far less comprehensive than what the European governments are doing so the unemployment rate will quickly surpass 10% and may end up rising over 20% this quarter.
The U.S. program only applies to companies with fewer than 500 employees. Only about 47% of businesses qualify:
https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/2020/4/2/21204341/paycheck-protection-program-apply-small-business-loans-coronavirus
The U.S. government is not directly subsidizing payroll but is loaning money to small businesses. The money does not have to be used to continue making payroll unless the employer wants the loan to be forgiven.
The loan will be forgiven provided 75% of the funds are used to maintain payroll at pre-pandemic levels for eight weeks after the loan is disbursed (based on a 40-hour workweek) and the remainder used to pay other specified expenses. The 75% rule is a bit more complicated than the previous summary based on the "Interim Final Rule" rule adopted by the treasury department for reducing compensation for employees making more than $100K. I am not going to do the calculations.
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/PPP--IFRN%20FINAL.pdf
The general thrust of the U.S. "payroll protection" will be a lower unemployment rate than what would have occurred without the program based on the decline in GDP currently anticipated, but the rise in unemployment will still be far greater in the U.S. than in Europe.
JP Morgan's estimate for job losses in April is currently at 25 million which would raise the unemployment rate to around 20% for that month.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/jpmorgan-now-sees-economy-contracting-by-40percent-and-unemployment-reaching-20percent.html
The St Louis Federal Reserve estimates the shutdowns could result in 47.05 M jobs lost during the second quarter with a peak unemployment rate of 32.1%.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/march/back-envelope-estimates-next-quarters-unemployment-rate
Okun's law was a good addition. It's always good to learn things.
DeleteI'd interpret that the stimulus offsets (reduces) the unemployment's negative effect on GDP. So the higher unemployment numbers can be brought down somewhat when estimating impact on GDP.
The "somewhat" is complicated. People get funding to spend but the businesses aren't open if people aren't coming into them.
The law though gives an idea of how to account for unemployment vs GDP AND THEN to take stimulus into account.
I'll leave it to economists at various investment firms, and gov't, to use all these numbers and come up with GDP estimates.
The investing questions I've been coming up with are:
1) I have my estimate of fair market value of shares. Namely some, maybe 10% less, than the 30% dip that took away 2019's parabolic move.
BUT the question is... this black swan interrupted an enthusiastic market. So where will the market place the fair values? Buying needs to be based in part on what the market is doing and thinking is fair, not just an insistence on my own rational of fair value.
2) Market went straight into catastrophic without a stop, at recovery. So will the reverse happen? Market keep going into stablization on any good news, without substantial more re-test or drop beyond that? If I knew, I'd be a very popular person.
3) When the market moves up to stablizing, it's time to buy into momentum, not sell into highs. The VIX model gives a safe zone after 3 months. That may be late in the rise in this excited a market stage. So I'm keeping an eye for anything that will tell whether it's a move to stablity or just a rise inside the bear.
4) FG had one piece of data I found interesting in his article his week.
"When the index posted new lows on March 23rd, ALL sectors were trading below their 20 MONTH moving average (Bullish/Bearish demarcation line). Savvy investors may have already sniffed some of the opportunity that lies in the sectors I just mentioned and purchased those opportunities. FOUR sectors have now rallied and have retaken that important trendline. Large Cap Biotechs (IBB), Healthcare (XLV), Technology (XLK) and a sub-sector of Tech, semiconductors. (SOXX)."
I don't have a historical sense of whether during crashes, moves over 20 month for big subsectors are indicators of an over all shift to bullish trend, or tend not to matter much.
---
I'm looking at individual stocks. When I find ones that look like good competition to buy instead of an indice (strong fundamental & more div or growth potential)... then I'll talk about them. So far, so-so on what I've looked up.
Happy Easter to all!
DeleteSouth Gent,
ReplyDeleteI closed my SDS position this morning with a $0.35 gain per share. After further study my findings are:
1. Goldman says that the bottom is in
2. Black swan events are out (COVID-19, the fight over oil between Russia and SA )
3. Margin Call already happened https://seekingalpha.com/article/4333460-margin-call-story-of-historic-week
4. Unemployment is at its worst.
I think near term the market will be range bound with bad company earning reports, which will be countered by more government help and more good news on the COVID-19 front.
Y: I will be discussing the Goldman Sachs call in my next post. Perhaps it would have been useful if it had been made when SPX was in the 2150-2200 range rather than after a huge rally that took the index back to near 2,800. I do not regard it as relevant now.
DeleteIt is possible that the bottom was established but there are alternative scenarios that are possible too which are not so benign.
An example is expressed by the Minneapolis FED president Neel Kashkari, who is smart but he is still voicing an opinion about the future.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/america-should-be-ready-for-18-months-of-shutdowns-in-long-hard-road-ahead-warns-the-feds-neel-kashkari-2020-04-12?mod=home-page
I view that opinion as having factual support.
Another topic that I will be discussing in the NYT article, published today, about how a meeting of Biogen executives produced a significant cluster of infections that spread out over the U.S. The article was republished at MSN and can be viewed now by non-NYT subscribers:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/how-biogen-became-a-coronavirus-superspreader/ar-BB12wGDB
The point that I draw from that article is the same one that I drew from virus spread aboard the Diamond Princess which occurred before that Biogen meeting.
COVID-19 is highly infectious and spreads easily since asymptomatic persons can spread it and it only takes 1 to start the ball rolling again. That is a relevant piece of information when looking at future scenarios and assigning probabilities to them and lends credence to Kashkari's opinion, which is not IMO the one being expressed in current stock prices.
If margin calls are already wrung out, then seems like there'd be less short squeezes, so less of these big rallies upward.
DeleteA new thing mentioned, is CEOs delaying earnings reports or giving guidance.
So the reaction to earnings may not have reports to react to.
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteI don't disagree with you as many experts believe the market will retest its low. For example, in MarketWatch "....Citing monthly research from Gavekal for April, the billionaire investor and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management said that history going back to the 1950s suggests that a retest is almost certain:
…markets rarely clear after one massive decline. In 15 bear markets since 1950, only one did not see the initial major low tested within three months…In all other cases, the bottom has been tested once or twice. Since news-flow in this crisis will likely worsen before it improves, a repeat seems likely."
I just think that the market movement will be more gradual without the kind of spikes we saw in the month of March 2020, which was my primary reason for SDS.
""Most CFOs see economy returning to normal next year - CFO Research
ReplyDeleteBy: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor
About half of CFOs expect a "V-shaped" recovery or a return to normal economic activity in Q3 2020, according to a survey of 333 senior finance executives by CFO Research.
~40% of CFOs expects a longer period of slow economic activity into 2021, or a "U-shaped recovery."
Only 9% expect a sustained recession with no pick-up in economic activity until 2022.
One fifth of the executives were shutting down or idling some operations; 49% indicated their firms were scaling back or delaying investments.
~35% said they're laying off or furloughing employees.
The survey was conducted from March 26-April 2.
""
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3560119-cfos-see-economy-returning-to-normal-next-year-cfo-research
Land: I would not anticipate any widespread delays in earnings reports that have been scheduled.
ReplyDeleteDelays will only serve to spook the Stock Jocks who are easily rattled now. Also the quarterly reports have to be filed in so many days after the quarter closes:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/04/050604.asp
There will be a lot of companies that will not be giving forward guidance. Many have already withdrawn previous guidance numbers
The CFOs have swallowed the same hopium juice as the Stock Jocks.
There are some reasons why a robust recovery may be underway in the third quarter and reasons why it may not happen.
The main question, given how easily COVID-19 spreads, is whether the restart will be met by another serious wave of infections which require more shutdowns.
Many of the federal relief programs are a one time booster shot (stimulus checks) which is a bandaid for most households in need of help or will last only two months ("paycheck protection").
So no one knows and everyone is guessing including those who sound like they are certain. My best guess now is that the recovery will be delayed longer and will be slower than the Stock Jocks expect. I would not bet much now that there will be a robust recovery in the second half, though I have bet some money on that less probable IMO scenario.
I play different scenarios which are frequently inconsistent with one another when making investment decisions and allocation That is the normal method that I deal with uncertainty both before the pandemic and now.
In the latest reallocation out of cash, I went heavy into short term investment grade bonds, but am now finding the pickings slim.
Today, I was only able to buy 2 Sara Lee 4.1% senior unsecured bonds maturing on 9/15/20. The total cost was at 99.8 creating a YTM at that price of 4.574%:
http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C529963&symbol=TSN3684826
Sara Lee bonds are now obligations of Tyson Foods which has a BBB/Baa2 credit rating.
I sold 2 of 10 EBAY 3.25% SU bonds maturing on 10/15/20 at 100.350 that I recently bought and will hold the remainder until maturity or early redemption which may occur up to 3 months prior to maturity.
http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C533903
Discussion at Item # 6.C.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/03/bpoprp-cio-ciopra-enba-fdus-gis-hban.html
It was not difficult to sell those 2 bonds at 100.350 even though Fidelity's third party provided fair value was at 99.688 and all trades since 4/7 have been above par value with one small exception slightly below.
I basically exchanged 2 EBAY bonds for 2 Sara Lee bonds that have a slightly higher yield and YTM.
PPL is down 16% after hours? As of 6pm. No news blurbs that I spot.
ReplyDeleteMust have been how the tape reads, off a low bid or something like that. In moments it went back to the level same price it was at close.
ReplyDeleteBoth ameritrade showed 16% down, and marketwatch's chart had a huge 5:15 line down. On refresh a few mins later it's gone but has a 22.30 price displayed as delayed price.
Land: The down number is probably a glitch. Both Yahoo Finance and CNBC show no change in after hours trading:
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=PPL&qsearchterm=ppl
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PPL?p=PPL&.tsrc=fin-srch
At the moment, Marketwatch is showing a $.27 per share gain in after hours trading. I did see a few minutes ago the number you referenced.
I would not worry about it until and unless the downdraft shows up during regular trading hours tomorrow.
Electric utility stocks are swinging far more wildly up and down than normal. Today they were declining.
Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU)
58.90-1.93 (-3.17%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLU/?p=XLU
XLU Recent Closes
4/9 $60.83
4/8 $58.09
4/7 $55.09
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLU/history?p=XLU
After my initial search for news, I wanted to try buying it. Was gone when I got back to the page. Wonder if it would have worked. Probably not but would have been fun to try.
DeleteMeanwhile, my brown sock sent up smoke signals (or a cell call) to it's sibling who decided to come home, and even brought with him a light tan sock who also had a sibling in the unique sock drawer. Four socks are save and snuggled with their buddies tonight.
Land: If you want to learn more about how socks grow legs and disappear, I believe Sean Hannity had an hour long documentary on the subject that included video footage and interviews with Fox News experts on the physiology.
DeleteSome of the experts interviewed by Hannity are shown in this video clip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzDhm808oU4&list=LLatU_MV4WQF39CPET55CyPw&index=2&t=35s
As to PPL, I bought back shares too early after a successful round trip. Since I did not want to look at the unrealized loss in that lot, I started a small ball program in another account buying down to below $20. The plan at the moment is to sell the 100 shares bought at higher prices, when and if profitable, and keep the shares bought in the other account for their income generation.
Thank you for that informative video by such thoughtful experts. (I only spit water out my nose once before realizing I shouldn't be drinking while watching such serious material.)
DeleteIt answered the first question that immediately popped into my head... of whether Hannity's documentary would include the behavior of my dark brown socks or even my light tan ones, or I would need to find another source of info on such "differently colored" socks.
I'd lose 12% on PPL if sold now. I'm holding until the market recovers into normal, be it as much as 2 years from now.
I have not bought enough of anything low to be able to sell off the higher stuff now. I'd like to also get rid of those 9 TXN's bought at 116 to round out that position originally bought in the 2018 dip at 100 or 101.
My buys into the dips have two tiers. The early thinking it was a small crash. Then after a quick cascade down, another smaller set.
EPR Properties 5.75% Cumulative Convertible Series C Preferred Stock (EPRPRC):
ReplyDeleteI am next scheduled to discuss this busted convertible preferred in a 5/2/20 post.
An article was published today at SA about this security, which is not yet behind the SA paywall.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337279-epr-properties-preferred-convertible-shares-are-attractive
The author acknowledges the likely pending bankruptcy of a major tenant AMC and possibly other theater owners.
I took a small position of 10 shares bought at $16.44
Item # 2.A.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/03/fhn-ftsprm-jri-oxy-pbct-pfxf-rnwca-scm.html
In the upcoming May 2 post, I will discuss selling that 10 share lot after the quarterly ex dividend date (3/30) at $17.5 (4/9) and buying between the prior purchase and that sell the following lots: 2 EPRPRC at $15.24; 3 at $14.5; 5 at $13.5; 5 at $12.95; 1 at $11; and 1 at $10.
I sold today the highest cost 5 shares bringing my position back down to 10 shares with an average cost at $12.54.
I view a dividend deferral as a real possibility but I am willing to hold 10 shares at that reduced cost number ($125.4 out-of-pocket), and no more, until the dust clears.
EPR is going to take some bit hits to revenues.
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteRe. "...I went heavy into short term investment grade bonds, but am now finding the pickings slim...." this has manifested across the whole spectrum of the capital structure: bonds, preferred, and equities. The forced/panic selling has passed and there are fewer dislocated prices.
I had a so-so morning. Decided to sell into this rally thinking it's near the resistance points. (The other possibility is that as 20 months & 50MA are broken, it encourages the algo buying.)
ReplyDeleteSold 3 Spy at 280.28. Missing so far 283+.
Sold 5 Walmart at 127.09 (5 total cost was equal to profit gathered so far). It looks like a stretch that would never fill. As I was looking to lower my price, realized it had filled. Now Walmart is 129.35.
My thought is that Walmart's popping on the situation, and I may not see these prices once recovery starts as other stocks gain popularity.
As I sold, even before prices went back to climbing, I concluded that I hadn't bought enough while down to be selling for trades. Need to wait until real recovery instead of trying to time on this batch. Try to have more conviction to buy more on the next leg down if when one appears.
---
This rally is having the same sense of impenetrable as the downs did. As technicals are broken, I'm not sure if it will come back down much. Pundits are sounding more optimistic, but not enough to be certain they're all wrong.
Investors seem to think the Fed & Care package are enough to completely backstop this. Crammer's saying that now too. A
While I think that's idiotic, I'm not sure this market will ever conclude anything else, & will keep finding reasons / excuses to buy. Point is to invest with what the market doesn't, not what one thinks is logical for it to do.
Because it's not a natural recession based on the exuberance breaking, is that still continuing?
Also the super low interest rates are being taken seriously. Not sure how to put them into this picture.
I'm going back to watching & trying to learn enough about individual stocks to be ready when it's a better time to buy.
I was trying to see the reaction to JPMorgan results, but CNBC hasn't been talking about it.
An SA commenter says it well.
"Nasdaq is now trading 7% higher than it was at this time last year, apparently a severe global recession is a booster for corporate earnings."
---
There's a few things known now about the situation that weren't. We need tests to be safe to go back to business and work. Tests are technically developed but not available. Trump has shown now with certainty he's not going to make it happen. He simply doesn't grasp that his goal of opening requires he DO this. So this will take a few to several weeks (i.e. possibly month) more than one would anticipate for it to happen.
Tests can check for antibodies but we still don't know how immune that makes people nor how much of the population is immune. There's only a vague move to figure that out.
The tests also aren't good enough to spot test individuals yet for a return to work (said German health minister, and I believe him.) This may be a big deal, that they aren't.
So the timeline has some sense on these things. It doesn't match all the current happy talk about going back to work in a couple weeks.
I don't know what to think. Which seems to be an outlier position. The majority view is buy here apparently?
I have a question.
ReplyDeleteBefore covid-19, there were factors indicating a slowing the world's economy, and notable increased risk of recession.
Are any of THOSE factors still present in the economy?
Land: So far, the tests for COVID-19 that have received emergency approval are not widely available and some have proven unreliable according to reports that I have read.
DeleteI will be discussing this issue in my next post. The FDA is approving tests based on a small sampling of test results which do not even use actual COVID-19 RNA but a "contrived sample" of RNA is made in a lab and put into a medium that purportedly mimics nasal mucus.
The NYT ran a story yesterday focusing on just New Jersey's efforts to conduct tests. The process so far is just one big mess.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/nyregion/coronavirus-testing.html
I would also note that the best scientists have been working on an AIDs vaccine for about 30 years now. I believe the mumps vaccine, whose road from discovery to FDA was at lightening speed by historical standards, took about 4 years until licensed by the FDA.
The Stock Jocks are pricing stocks as if the COVID-19 epidemic will hurt some companies badly but will impact most only for two quarters before a robust recovery starts in the second half and pulls the economy back into the promised land.
The Stocks Jocks were not concerned whatsoever about COVID-19 in mid-February and we know how long that lasted.
I am not optimistic that the U.S. and European economies economy will have a substantial second half recovery. I am more confident that Asia will.
My approach is to play all meaningful scenarios that have some meaningful chance of actually happening. So today, I bought maybe $200 of double short ETFs as a hedge against the more dire scenario occurring, and I sold a few recently purchased stocks. A typical sell into a price spike involved DOC, where I sold my highest cost 55 shares this morning at a profit and kept 45 shares bought at $12.96, which I will discuss in my next post. That is typical small ball.
The conditions that were slowing the economies before the pandemic are still present; and even a best case scenario for a recovery will make those conditions worse. People are just not going to return to normal activities and spending when Donald gives the all clear sign.
The Stock Jocks at first were pleased with the JPM earnings released this morning, but then had second thoughts.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
$94.77 -$3.42 -3.48%
OPEN $101.02
DAY RANGE 93.64 - 102.00
The change in direction is taking the bank sector down with it. I have not reviewed the report but I did read a summary and found nothing that indicated blue skies ahead. Banks are tightening credit standards. A large number of consumers are not making payments on their credit cards. I do not own big bank stocks.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/jpmorgan-just-revealed-it-thinks-a-lot-of-people-wont-pay-their-credit-card-bills.html
"one big mess"
DeleteOn testing, that is what I've picked up!
The missed/non-detection rates are too high to be useful. False positives are high too. Supplies to do the testing are too limited. Physically takes times to get results.
In my view all of that could & could have been improved with good Fed executive branch management from the top. Ahem, Mr. Trump. The person who's signing all those checks that Congress authorized.
I didn't know about the usual simulated RNA. That's well, makes me voiceless.
This string of RNA is similar to other SARS Coronaviruses. There were groups already working on vaccines.
It doesn't have the difficulties or long time needed for mumps or AIDS. Mumps was an early vaccine and it broke ground that can be used and is in more recent vaccine development. AIDS has complications that seem to stymie it.
So no guarantees or idea of when a vaccine will be developed. I hold out hope for late Fall as a possibility. (I know you think that's nuts.)
Even with that *huge success* if it happened - it wouldn't rescue the economy in time.
I completely forgot that I meant to buy some SDS today during that uptick. Grrr. I could still buy it here. But...
I just stopped that post abruptly to go look on SDS.
DeleteI don't know which way it's going from here. The JPM response was surprising. That initial uptick. The whole market happy and up, even after the reverse to downtrend on the banks. Not a very big downtrend either.
Today too, a lot of my stocks are down a lot. But the main indices aren't down as much. And not nearly as much as I'd expect as reaction.
One change is that retail risk adverse investors are out already and staying there. Moves now will be more from big money, and retailers committed to buy the dip.
VIX is up again, what seems like an appropriate amount. So it's not that bets are volatility are done.
This was a technical place to bounce down, but *could* bounce around this resistance for a day or two.
You were spot on that earnings would increase worries again. Sometimes it's taken a day or two for that mood shift happen.
I should have sold IWM on the idea that it had popped over the relief package and wouldn't proportionally hold up. 4% down today, a big hit. Most of my IWM was bought much earlier in the dip and would be a loss to sell at 124. Have plenty of cash for if future opportunities show up!
Land: I am maybe up to $1K invested in QID and SDS. I added some QID today near $18.3 when there was a rally in the afternoon that almost took the Nasdaq 100 back to even. Generally, I only buy a few shares on big up days now so today was an exception based on the negligible reaction to what I regarded as horrible economic news and that was for March.
DeleteThe standards for receiving FDA approval for Covid-19 tests are so perfunctory now that I suspect the public will be given a false sense of assurance when they roll out nationally.
Earlier I referenced some observations made in an article on this subject without linking it.
https://www.propublica.org/article/coronavirus-tests-are-being-fast-tracked-by-the-fda-but-its-unclear-how-accurate-they-are
On vaccine by late fall, I'm not totally by myself.
DeleteNear the end this doctor is saying 8 months available to 1st responders. 12 months to the general population.
She explains why it's possible with this vaccine compared to how long it takes to develop vaccines.
https://twitter.com/AC360/status/1250228871892545537?s=20
This requires smooth sailing for results. Manufacturing and materials availability.
I've figured Fauci has been saying 12-18 months to avoid exactly the high expectation on something that requires perfection to get here that fast.
It's on CNN, so this will become the new expectation for the market's investors. Yikes. This market is not going to drop. Not for a while.
If by 2nd quarter results are bad AND we aren't out of lockdown.... vut lockdown won't last. So that won't tank it.
If Asia has a resurgence (haven't heard of any yet.) Or the stable virus that hasn't been morphing, morphs.
If another black flag appears, including something dumb Trump comes up with.
Possibly if it starts looking like a clear Biden (i.e. dem) win. This market or wall street thinks GOPs are better for them.
If Trump or someone very visible gets sick and near death.
If this drags out with poor testing availability into 3rd quarter, THEN the 2nd quarter poor economic results will start a worry about 4th and next year. This is not a trivial possibility.
However, by June we'll have testing solved thanks to states and companies and Gates. So by at least end of 2nd quarter we'll be out of our houses, and the 2nd quarter results won't mean much.
IF the balance tips so that meaningful bankrupcies or some underlying corruption that's been covered by a rising market, shows up - that's a game changer.
Unlike other countries coming out of lockdown in the 3-4 months after start, ours doesn't have testing developed, so they aren't a straight usable comparison.
There's another factor around that's not getting airing. Russia and Saudis were probably working in tandem, not in dispute. Aiming to end US independence with oil.
I've been worried about someone starting a war in the middle of this pandemic. If this is a plan, then Putin did just start a limited war.
That could have bigger impact than already accounted for. (Just to be conspiratorial, There may be other ways of attacking that aren't realized yet.)
I started out to write about the vaccine news. And just kept going through some of the ins and outs.
Land: It is my understanding that there are currently 3 COVID-19 vaccines in Phase 1 trials. One of those was developed at Emory. I heard the Doctor in charge say, just a few minutes ago on TV, that it will be late fall 2021 or early 2022, if all goes well, before the vaccine will be ready for production. None of the vaccines have been proven yet to be effective. There is a lot of wishful thinking that one will be a cure and will be out soon.
DeleteI have heard Dr. Fauci and a few others predict maybe in 12 to 18 months, possibly earlier for high risk people and healthcare workers.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/coronavirus-vaccine-when-will-we-have-one-covid-19
We will have a better handle when one is proven to actually work. Until that happens, it is speculation as to when.
I am a bit suspicious of all of this fast tracking as possibly ending up causing more problems than it solves. Fast tracking a vaccine after tests on a relatively small number of people and then having mass vaccinations can succeed but also end up causing more harm than good.
I doubt that testing issues will be resolved this year. Serology tests may be ready to go, but I suspect less than 1% of the population has been infected, due to the social distancing and shutdowns, so most people have had no exposure and are still naive to the virus (no antibodies).
And, it is not clear now whether having antibodies will provide much, if any protection given the novel nature of the virus or for how long or how many will be necessary to provide some protection. I heard a Stanford scientist make that claim on CNN earlier this evening. He was being interviewed by Erin Burnett.
Optimism on these matters now may end up being justified, but I can not say it is justified by actual facts as opposed to hopes now.
I'm pretty comfortable with this dr's explanation. It's in line with Dr. Fauci's timeline. I'm going to keep that expectation in my mind.
DeleteOther groups may have different timelines in mind. There's always some who will be more cautious on estimates than others. Sometimes it proves good caution. May be differences in their setups, or different level of experience with the processes's timeline.
None of that guarantees a vaccine. That's a complete unknown until it's known.
Having sloppy rushed work released is a good point, that it will cause more harm than good.
Meanwhile that's a long while off. We need now, and don't have testing.
Testing appears to be working in S. Korea, maybe a couple other countries. In the US we have a structural problem, but the same way businesses and governors stepped up, maybe something will happen again to solve the testing situation.
----
I saw this when I was returning to my computer to say that writing out one's ideas is useful. After an opportunity to think, I decided I was completely wrong.
Most importantly, investors aren't going to put this dr's info into their timeline. They didn't even believe a stimulus package was coming until it was signed.
The other thing is that this $1200 and 2T small business stimulus won't make a dent. This will have ongoing shutdown or maybe if all goes well, slowdown effects. This dents only for a short time.
The pullback in prices (then surge in prices based on stimulus) doesn't take into account, when that money runs out (the business loans are out of money already).
The part I can't figure at all, is when the market will get serious about pricing to reflect risk and value.
I went off my diet this week. But by the time the shut down is done, I will be svelte. Also I'll have discovered nooks and crannies in my house. I found a pile of tuna that's dropped behind the auto supplies in the pantry.
I discussed Gladstone Commercial (GOOD) in this post.
ReplyDeleteAfter the close today, GOOD declared its regular monthly dividend of $.12515 per share for April, May and June:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/04/14/2015999/0/en/Gladstone-Commercial-Corporation-Announces-Monthly-Cash-Distributions-for-April-May-and-June-2020-and-First-Quarter-Ended-March-31-2020-Earnings-Release-and-Conference-Call-Dates.html
The company also declared the regular monthly dividends for its preferred shares GOODM and GOODN.
I discussed buying 15 shares of GOODN in this post:
Item # 1.C. Bought 10 GOODM at $20; 5 at 19:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/04/arcc-bif-cio-dirunca-brgpra-fnb-gnl.html
A few days ago, I had an order to buy more at $18 which was not filled. Trading is thin and an be wild at time with large/bid ask spread. The close today was at $20.07:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/goodm
I will be discussing in my next post five 10 share buys of GMRE. The chain started with a 10 share buy at $10 and ended with a 10 purchase at $8.2.
Global Medical REIT Inc.
$11.13 +$0.21 +1.92%
EX-DIVIDEND DATE Mar 24, 2020
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gmre
All 50 shares were owned on the ex dividend date. The first 10 share lot, which is the highest cost lot, is now eligible to be sold using the small ball trading rules.
I will also be discussing in the next purchase of GMRE's preferred stock GMREPRA. The small ball "buying program" only got up to 15 shares, with buys at $21 and $16.88. This is a 7.5% cumulative preferred stock. My last elimination was at $25.87.
The close today was at $24.55 so arguably I could have been more aggressive. The ex dividend date was today.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gmre.pra
I have traded both of these securities several times.
There is a SA article about GMRE that is not yet behind a paywall, which I why I am mentioning this now. My discussions of each security will not be as detailed. I am not as enthusiastic as this author:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337532-global-medical-reit-unwarranted-divergence-from-peers
Earnings reports released this morning by Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs were understandably ugly.
ReplyDeleteIn prior remarks, I expressed an opinion that the Stock Jocks would be less enthusiastic about the future when companies started to report first quarter earnings.
Still, Goldman Sachs and others are predicting an extremely robust recovery in the 3rd and 4th quarter while their forecasts for the present quarter remain dire.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/goldman-downturn-will-be-four-times-worse-than-the-financial-crisis.html
It is standard for Wall Street analysts to back load earnings growth during the second half when things are not so good in the first half.
I recently sold 50 shares of the cumulative equity preferred stock AHTPRI at $22.4.
Item # 3.A.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/02/ahtpri-axpra-dpg-eaf-ffbc-hban-ing-rdsb.html
I viewed this preferred stock as high risk and subsequent events since my last sell have proved that to be the case.
Since that post, conditions have become very problematic for Ashford Hospitality. Its survival is in doubt which is reflected in the current common stock price near $.75 per share:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aht
That price IMO is not really an estimate of the equity value left in the company but more of a "warrant" that AHT will survive outside of bankruptcy.
The problems in the hotel industry are now well known.
Ashford may have compounded its upcoming difficulties by paying dividends on its common and preferred stocks for the first quarter.
Putting aside whether those payments violated the loan covenants, which is a question that I can not even offer an opinion without viewing the loan documents, the payments angered one creditor in a most significant manner:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232582/000110465920045677/tm2015709-1_8k.htm
Ashford needs its secured lenders to forebear on foreclosures.
Paying dividends to equity owners while skipping a payment to secured lenders is not a good idea, irrespective of its legality.
My gut tells me that the risk of bankruptcy is significant. If that occurs, the recovery value for Ashford's preferred shareholders is questionable given the outstanding secured debt on the hotel properties.
So I sold yesterday 50 of my remaining AHTPRI shares at $6.9, taking a $587.54 loss. This was in an account where I had already realized over $4K in gain this year, so Uncle Sam will help me for that loss.
I am keeping at risk the remaining 50 share lot. If Ashford survives, which is questionable, and preferred shares recover as conditions return to normal (in doubt as to return to normal anytime soon), I may then recover some of the loss on the 50 shares sold by continuing to hold the remaining 50 shares which I could sell now and recover slightly over $300 while taking a similar loss.
I have included a snapshot of the loss in the preferred stock section of this post:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2014/10/gateway-post-equity-reit-common-and.html
The loss reduced my net realized gain total for equity REIT common and preferred stocks, starting in 2013, to + $25,717.20
"Goldman Sachs and others are predicting an extremely robust recovery in the 3rd and 4th quarter "
ReplyDeleteIf it turns out to be a poor 3/4th over news such as that we can't go back to normal by then, then their upbeat estimates can be retracted without seeming like bad estimates, right? So those estimates don't really indicate anything?
Selling out of weak seems like a good rebalancing.
I should do some selling out of a few losing small energy companies at big losses but put the money to better use. Wish I'd thought more about it over the weekend. Those are in a different account, an IRA, that I do more buy & hold in.
Today was an extremely mild response to a boatload of negative news. Notwithstanding the slight dip in the S & P 500, the Stock Jocks remain in denial that bad economic news will persist into the second half. The horrific economic news today and the gigantic increases in loan loss reserves from the big banks did not change that outlook in any meaningful way IMO.
ReplyDeleteBrokerage companies are helping to maintain that consensus opinion by predicting a robust second half and by recommending that investors basically ignore what is happening this quarter. Just look through it to the rosy days ahead in their mantra.
Maybe that will prove to be an accurate forecast, but then I do not remember them saying sell in February and load up the truck in March either.
Goldman Sachs, for example, said in February that the coronavirus impact would be limited to the first quarter.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-says-impact-of-coronavirus-will-be-limited-these-are-the-stocks-to-buy-2020-02-10?mod=home-page
Unlike Goldman and other brokers, I am not able to predict how the coronavirus pandemic will unfold or how long it will last. So I am left playing possibilities and probabilities whose odds change as new information is revealed and digested.
I am trading some $1K par value BDC senior bonds which I will discuss in subsequent posts. I mentioned in a prior comment buying Main Street's 5.25% SU maturing on 5/1/24. The total cost was 92.727 (4/8/20 trade). That one is now gone as of today. I sold at 97.
I have also completed one round trip in an ARES SU bond with a similar holding period.
My theory as to why is that my left brain got use to doing 100 trades last month and now has nothing much to do. The BDC bond trades keep it occupied.
There are going to several companies who will use the pandemic as cover to cut an outsized dividend that needed to be slashed before the pandemic. An example was the cut from GNL that I discussed in a recent post.
While I am not able to predict the ones that will soon slash their dividends with actionable certainty, the common denominator will be too much leverage and a payout that was too high before the recession started.
Glad the low reaction is showing up to more than me.
ReplyDeleteCostco just upped its dividend. Procter & Gamble and somebody else did yesterday too.
Will that cause their stocks to fly. Would put their finances at risk. They're certainly getting bought out.
There's a deposit in my bank account today. It's nice for a change to be a beneficiary from government policies. I've generally been on the Saver or responsible sort type that doesn't benefit.
Land: I have my social security payment on direct deposit but apparently the IRS is not using that information. On my tax returns, I never request a direct deposit when I overpay but simply apply the balance to following year. So I anticipate receiving a check with Donald's signature on it even though his signature is not the one that actually matters since he has no legal authority to sign treasury checks.
DeleteIRS launched a tool today that allegedly provides a status update on the stimulus direct deposits or checks.
https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/get-my-payment?mod=article_inline
I expect to receive almost nothing, but entered my information at the website and the response was the IRS did not have a clue.
When Bush Jr. did the tax free money in 2008 ($300 or $600), as I recall, he did not insist on having his name on the checks but requested the IRS to send a letter with the checks where he would claim responsibility for the free money. The IRS was independent then, not now of course, and refused to send the letter since it was political.
"Will that cause their stocks to fly. Would put their finances at risk. They're certainly getting bought out."
DeleteMeant that to read
That will cause their stocks to fly. But will that put their finances at risk? They're certainly getting bought out a products.
Land: I do not own either Costco or PG.
DeleteI have bought and sold PG several times. My last trades occurred in 2018 with the last shares sold at $91.66:
Item 1. A. Eliminated PG-Sold Remaining 18+ Shares at $91.66-Used Commission Free Trade:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/search/label/PG
In that chain, I bought and sold 52+ shares netting a $435.29 profit, with all of the trades occurring in 2018.
PG is also the kind of stock that I bought in March 2009 spring, even though it has not been smashed anywhere near as much as other stocks during the Near Depression period.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2009/03/buy-50-lxpprd-bought-pg-lexington.html
I view both to be overvalued at their current prices. The P/E for Costco is 36 on a trailing 12 months basis, according to YF, with a dividend yield of less than 1%.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COST?p=COST
Its valuation reflects what investors will pay for growth these days. The payout ratio is close to 30%:
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/COST/dividend/
PG is a slow grower and has a payout ratio near 66% based on trailing 12 months earnings.
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/PG/dividend/
The consensus non-GAAP E.P.S. estimate is currently $4.96 for this year. The P/E using that estimate and today's closing price of $121.22 is 24.44:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PG/analysis?p=PG
The projected E.P.S. growth from 2020 to 2021 is currently estimated at +5.24%. The PEG ratio is too high for me and that assumes PG will not be hit this year and next by more significant brand substitution.
Several of the consumer product names have held up well and are even up from their high points in February. GIS is an example whose close today was near its 52 week high.
Thanks. One can chance momentum. I didn't with tech and should have.
DeleteHowever these aren't growth stocks. There value stocks. So the info on price and overpriced seems important.
What I really want to know is how do you test a vaccine?
ReplyDeleteYou can't inject a virus to see if it works to prevent people from getting sick.
Take the blood out and seeing if the virus dies, is not enough of a simulation.
Land: You can not ethically test a vaccine by exposing the two test groups to the virus. Instead, the placebo group and the group receiving the vaccine will simply be monitored on how many become infected. The Emory doctor running a Phase 1 trial mentioned that there might be 250 in a placebo group and 250 in the group receiving the Vaccine during a Phase 2 trial. So if none of the vaccine group become infected and a statistically significant number do in the placebo group, there is a conclusion reached that the vaccine works and then goes into Phase 3 where larger and more diverse group are enrolled. Drugs frequently fail in Phase 3 after showing some statistically significant results compared to a placebo in Phase 2.
DeleteNone of the foregoing establishes that the vaccine will actually work when mass vaccinations start or how long it will work.
For serology tests, even if the test works, that does not establish that the person is immune from a re-infection or how long the immunity will last if it initially exists. More importantly, if 1% of the population has some immunity, that is not going to be enough to prevent another mass epidemic when social distancing and shutdowns end.
Trump lies all of the time about tests for COVID-19.
This article was published a few minutes ago by USA Today:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/16/coronavirus-antibody-blood-tests-reliable-public-health/2981574001/
Ah, realized it can be given to 1st responders and essential workers on a first test. They have exposure to measure. I was picturing someone like me, hiding.
DeleteA vaccine or drug can fail at any stage. If it works, then it makes it through all the stages successfully. Most items tested don't make it all the way through.
We don't know at all how many have immune built up. I'm suspecting a low number too. Definitely not the over 50% that even starts to matter. That doesn't begin to answer how long it lasts for.
There have been times that Trump has lied in the same run-on sentence about what he said earlier in that sentence.
I mute when he comes on. I don't have high blood pressure. I don't want to get high blood pressure.
That link is good article. There's this that's good that it's started:
"""There are large-scale pilot programs using serology tests at the CDC and NIH, as well as efforts in Los Angeles County and New York."""
That other is about the study that was mentioned very briefly. Good to know the details!
On investing, I'm not doing much right now. Even with the speed of this crash, it takes time.
Someone described the stages of a bear market on CNBC on March 23 or 24. I didn't catch the name. I've heard of stages of bull markets. I want to find more on the stages of bear markets. (I went back to those dates but haven't spotted him yet.)
This study is interesting:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-hospital-finds-high-covid-19-infection-rate-but-few-symptoms-in-pregnant-women/2372863/
The results imply that the actual infection rates in NYC are far higher than was is known now.
Market's really struggling to go down like it should - based on technicals and value.
ReplyDeleteIt will. It's working off it's bottom right now - just not at the bottom spot.
That's my sense for now of it.
Land: For the Nasdaq 100 and several sectors that are prominent in the QQQ, investors are simply looking through the current bad news as something that will soon pass with a robust recovery starting during the second half and gaining momentum into 2021. So no amount of bad news, at least for now, is going to change that herd consensus for those sectors.
DeleteThe same consensus opinion about blue skies emerging in the second half does not extend to most stock sectors, however, including energy, bank, BDC, MREIT, hotel and leisure, most equity REITs, and economically sensitive sectors outside of the QQQ names (chemicals, many industrials).
Those sectors are predicting negative and challenging conditions through 2020 and most, if not all of 2021. The Bond Ghouls would be in this camp as well.
I am describing incompatible opinions about the timing and strength of a rebound that are being expressed through prices.
Investors in Amazon or Netflix, for example, do not care about bad bank loans piling up and tightening of credit standards in response, nor are they concerned about valuations of their growth names.
Even if there is good news and it doesn't extend into 2nd half, these prices don't reflect this quarter and next. The exuberance of the last year isn't being counted as exuberance. It's being considered a little low to normal prices & valuations before this started.
Delete"""Investors in Amazon or Netflix, for example, do not care about bad bank loans piling up and tightening of credit standards in response"""
If those happen, no matter how much those stock are on the top of the heap, less people & businesses will have $ to buy them, so they will be top of a lowered heap.
I know I'm not saying anything knew. It's what you've been saying.
Tomorrow will be busier than today. May sell those 9 TXN bought too soon in the dip. I ALWAYS sell when get even and regret it. So may try to hold on longer before escaping.
I'm not selling my other tech.
Got to decide if I should buy some indices here to chase momentum - and not get left out if the market continues to be uber happy about all good news and who-cares about bad scenarios.
Many experts have thought that Gilead's drug Remdesvir had the most potential for treating COVID-19 fever and respiratory.
ReplyDeleteA report out this evening suggests that may be the case:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
Gilead is responding in after hours trading:
Gilead Sciences Inc.
After Hours: $85.10 +8.61 +11.25%
After Hours Volume: 3.1M
Last Updated: Apr 16, 2020 at 5:28 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gild?mod=home-page
The shares closed up $1.91 in regular hours.
If this holds up, then some of the beneficiaries may be stocks in the hardest hit sectors where horrific future conditions are postulated as facts in the share prices.
Now at 19% up. I didn't chase. I may tomorrow. The article makes it sound very good. The once hesitation is the manager doesn't want to confirm anything except that the report is the official one.
DeleteSeveral people died. Question is whether they can get the treatment to the point where none die. If there's still risk, it means at the least, riskier people will need to stay isolated. That's a large pool of people.
It may help get to herd immunity. But I wouldn't want to be the ginnie pig of getting it and seeing if the drug works on me.
We're in the all news is better news phase of the bear. I don't know if that phase exists. Nor what it means. I have heard repeatedly that bottom is said to be quiet in a bear and work from green shoots. I don't know if this looks like it's quiet and green shoots.
Will look at beaten up sectors for urges to chase, as well as indices.
I did a contactless curbside buy at Target tonight. I can now do laundry again. Well in a few days. Leaving it in the car to wear off on it's own.
Oh, what I wanted to say is that Trump's done a re-opening plan. I'm wondering how much the up is over that (and if so it will wear off as soon as it's obvious it can't work). And how much over the drug.
DeleteLand: If major health problems from serious COVID-19 infections can be successfully managed with all or almost all patients recovering fast, then the justification for keeping businesses closed becomes less compelling which is how the news is being interpreted by the Stock Jocks.
DeleteI am expecting results later this month from several ongoing trials of Gilead's drug.
So the consensus opinion, which has been emerging this month, gels even more toward a quick rebound starting in the third quarter and a willingness to look past current bad headlines.
The news is sufficient for me to stop nibbling on the double shorts on big up days and to focus on buying some stocks in beaten down sectors that have been the most severely impacted by extremely negative predictions about the future.
I was buying some stocks today with the largest dollar expenditure being a 50 share purchase of GLW.
Corning Inc.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/glw
Given the backlog that I now have in discussing stock purchases just from last month, it will be late May or early June before I discuss new stock purchases made today
I think that I have figured out why the IRS site can not provide me with any information on the stimulus payment. I did file my 2019, another 100 page monstrosity, in early April, and it takes time to process returns which is required to figure out whether to give me any money. I do not efile. I want the government to actually handle the paper that I generated.
So the recovery payment couldn't deal with your taxes... I haven't put in 2019's yet and I always do direct deposit of refunds and ach's of payments.
DeleteCome to think of it, I need to set up state estimates for this year even though the deadline for submissions is extended.
The market is now incorporating Gilead in the way I would. Great news that it helped, but not a full fix.
Put in 2 unrealistic orders. IWM at the 124 high from a few days ago. Walmart at 132 closed yesterday. Wmt's acting as a risk off equity so it's selling today.
I sold 10 Garmin at 183. It's kind of tech so maybe that's why it's climbed last few days. See whether I regret it. I'll buy back lower if opportunity arises. Estimates are less enthused for the future, but it's been solid with good management for the last couple years. Was a nice div before the climb.
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The market is working off the bottom here. It decided this is the spot the go back and forth on worries and reduce it's original anxiety on the "what is happening" moment.
I don't know what comes next in a spot like this.
I am sure that is the process happening here. A few sectors crossed above the 20 month demarcation for bear/bull. Others are solidly below. Major indices are right at the MAs resistance. So it's a natural spot to work things off, technically.
Land: It is occurring to the Stock Jocks, as the day wears on, that the Gilead drug is probably not going to solve the COVID-19 problems so a slither of weight is being given to the current horrific economic data and China's awful GDP report for the first quarter.
DeleteNotwithstanding my earlier comments about the double shorts, I did add 2 shares of QID near the high point this morning. Right Brain entered the order before Left Brain could stop it.
It cost me $10 to send my tax return to Louisville (with no insurance, etc, just the weight) which I view as worth the cost just to have somebody from the IRS having to lug it around.
Oil is tanking due to concerns about storage capacity for the surplus. I have not filled up my vehicles within the past 30 days.
While regional bank stocks are rallying today, the overriding theme expressed in their current prices remains the dire economic scenario.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
$33.17 +$2.03 +6.51%
52 WEEK RANGE 27.26 - 59.38
Last Updated: Apr 17, 2020 at 10:50 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
Boeing is up over 12%, but I have zero interest in it. BA's senior unsecured bonds also provide IMO inadequate compensation for their risk even though they offer a slight yield advantage to similar rated bonds.
Growth at any price investors are the most optimistic about the third quarter V shape recovery scenario.
Stocks that have been slammed the most based on the dire scenario are rallying some but not anywhere enough to reflect a fundamental outlook change.
Ares Capital (ARCC), for example, is currently at $12.38, up $.41 or 3.48%, but that price is still at late 2009 levels.
HI SG
ReplyDeletedo you thinks the mkt is looking past all these horrible numbers and the fact that alot of small businesses have not been able to get a bailout? plus the numbers of pe and earning still look awful
Or that the stimulus by the Fed/Treasury is what the mkt is seeing ?
thanks
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/gilead-pours-cold-water-report-sent-market-soaring-anecdotal-reports-no-statistical-power
G: I do not pay much attention to "Tyler Durden" who has about the same balance as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity IMO. A more balanced view is summarized in this article.
Deletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-an-analyst-bullish-on-gilead-says-antiviral-drug-wont-solve-covid-19-2020-04-17?mod=home-page
More results from ongoing trials will be necessary before an assessment can be made on remdesvir's overall effectiveness. The drug is not a vaccine and will not prevent people from acquiring an infection or transmitting one to others.
I suspect that the end result will be that the drug does help a significant number of patients recover faster.
While the Chicago hospital did not give the drug to patients on a respirator, the drug could prove effective in alleviating respiratory symptoms when given before a respirator is required.
I would not jump to any conclusions yet but the drug looks more promising than the other ones in existence before the pandemic:
https://www.drugs.com/history/remdesivir.html
For the Stock Jocks, it is all about the future. The general tendency, most of the time, is to be optimistic notwithstanding any current negative news items, which has served stock investors well over the decades provided they resisted the panic, sell and flee natural response to fast bear market type declines.
I am basically seen enough now where I have quit adding money to the gloom and doom scenario which forecasts no second half recovery and a continuation of recessionary type economic numbers into the third quarter.
It is still to early IMO to have confidence in the blue sky scenario that is the consensus opinion among Stock Jocks who focus on the sectors prominently featured in the Nasdaq 100.
That future forecast is still not reflected in several sectors. Most regional bank stocks, as an example, are back to 2009 prices.
I am not finding anything to buy now in the corporate bond market. CD and treasury rates are so undesirable that I will not even bother to look. So for investors who are willing to take risks, stocks are back to being the only game where there is a chance to earn a meaningful real total return. All treasury and CD rates will likely end up being below the inflation rate, producing negative real returns before taxes.
This news about AMC Entertainment is giving EPR a lift in premarket trading:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/amc-entertainments-stock-rockets-after-liquidity-update-private-debt-offering-2020-04-17?mod=mw_latestnews
EPR Properties
$25.51 +2.72 +11.89%
Before Hours Volume: 9.9K (light)
Last Updated: Apr 17, 2020 at 8:52 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/epr
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteRe. "....While regional bank stocks are rallying today, the overriding theme expressed in their current prices remains the dire economic scenario. ..."
I took a Small Ball position in HBAN and SNV this morning. Both are in KRE.
HBAN has a buy rating at RBC Capital and Merrill since 3/9. The CEO bought 18,750 shares at $13.02 on 2/26..
SNV has a buy rating at MS, SunTrust, and WFC since 3/30. The CEO and the President were buying at around $23 on 3/9.
Y: Like the big banks the regionals that have reported so far are taking earnings hits by adding to their loan loss reserves. Maybe that will be a one quarter event, but their stock prices suggest that more will have to be added when actual loan losses and charge offs accelerate.
DeleteThe best case scenario for them will be that they have over reserved in the first quarter.
Two examples from today's releases:
Citizens Financial:
$19.93 +$2.73 +15.88%
Last Updated: Apr 17, 2020 at 1:18 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cfg
Report: "In first quarter 2020, Citizens adopted the Current Expected Credit Loss (“CECL”) accounting standard and recorded first quarter 2020 provision for credit losses of $600 million pre-tax, or $1.10 per share after-tax, including a reserve build under CECL of $463 million pre-tax, or $0.85 per share after-tax, tied to COVID-19 impacts."
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/759944/000119312520110023/d910941dex991.htm
Regions Financial (RF):
"The company adopted the current expected credit losses (CECL) accounting standard effective January 1, 2020, and recorded an approximate $500 million increase to its allowance for credit losses that was offset in shareholders' equity and deferred tax assets. During the first quarter, credit loss provision expense totaled $373 million. The provision includes the impact of $123 million in net charge-offs, as well as $250 million of additional provision reflecting an increase in expected losses over the life of the portfolio."
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1281761/000128176120000040/rf-2020331xexhibit991.htm
The foregoing is what I would generally expect to see in HBAN when it reports on the 23rd.
Nomura is in the dire scenario account. At Fidelity's webpage for HBAN, I see that this firm cut is price target to $7 from $14. That is fairly typical of analysts telling their clients that the stock deserved to fall after it had cratered close to its revised PT.
I would have expected the Small Business program running out of money, would have had a chilling effect on the market. Even IWM is up as much as SPY. Though it hasn't hit it's high from a few days ago.
ReplyDeleteThere may be more reaction in later months, when it's evident more recovery bills are needed from Congress, and only some trust that they'll come through. (I have trouble writing "come through" for Trillion dollar packages causing debt.)
SPY crossed 50day MA on that rally into that 3pm rally to the close. 2873.95
That's super bullish for the algos for Monday, if news doesn't cancel it out.
Though I wonder if that rally was a short squeeze, or a short sell into worry that a down leg is about to start. That rapid buy-up and after 3pm - are prime time and method for professional investors.
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My Walmart order I thought was too high to reach, got filled at 131.77. Hope I have a chance to get in lower again. Only have 5 shares left.
I've tried to find out what the phases of a bear are. Haven't hit the magic google terms yet. All I've heard is "quiet at the bottom" and "green shoots."
Usually there's three steps down with rallies in-between but this market didn't follow the usual on the way down because it's a black swan virus event. So I'm not using that info at all.
Land: Up is the path of least resistance. Yahoo Finance has the 50 day SMA line point at 2,863 so the spurt late today did cause an upside crossover.
ReplyDeleteAnother crossover point occurred this week IMO. I am referring to the crossover where no amount of current negative news can call into question a V shaped recovery starting no later than the third quarter.The forecast is being made in directional moves in SPX and the Nasdaq 100 and industry sectors that dominate the QQQ.
That forecast is not reflected by stock prices across the board and is rejected altogether in certain sector stock prices like regional banks.
So that is where we stand now, a set of inconsistent scenarios about the near term future.
Over my lifetime the Stock Jocks have been better at future forecasts than the Bond Ghouls, its the vision thing that they have.
Unfortunately, the future forecast has from time to time been a mass episodic delusion, seeing things that are not there, and you really never sure where they are seeing at any moment in time a prescient vision, which is historically more common than the crazy juice inspired mass delusionary vision.
Lol.
DeleteNow that I think about it, I've noticed too the Ghouls tend to be pessimists by nature, and overestimate many events. I've never heard it put into words. They're usually worshiped for their ability to read the tea leaves.
That euphoria that eventually hits the Jocks, even has a stage named in the cycle.
---
Looking at it this way:
Let's say their vision is accurate of a 3rd quarter July, Aug, Sept recover business to normal.
1)
Doesn't 1st, 2nd, into 3rd quarter disruptions effect the economy and stock prices going forward into the 4thquarter and next year? All that borrowing, firing and rehiring, lack of expanding or planning for expanding.
2)
Also there were economic problems budding up already before this. You'd already mentioned that they still matter.
Are there any in particular that will continue to have an effect on the economy going forward?
Land: The optimistic outlook embedded in SPX and QQQ can probably only be changed by abundant and indisputable facts that undermine it.
DeleteAn opinion that the economy will not rebound as currently anticipated, and the recovery will be much slower than expected, no matter how well grounded in what is known now, is not going to change the optimistic future forecast.
The Stock Jocks are thoroughly encapsulated in their vision mode, where inconsistent information is just filtered out, and mama is going to kiss it and make everything better soon.
I am not expressing an opinion when I summarize the signals being given by prices. I simply view it as a future prediction embedded in current prices.
I am not a believer that the second half will be as robust as firms are predicting, nor as bad as bank investors are now forecasting which would be earnings hits for bad loans, charge offs and additions to loan loss reserves through the year.
I believe that is more likely than not that testing will be grossly inadequate as stay at home orders are lifted, with large segments of the population still carrying the virus without knowing it, traveling freely from state to state and within the state infecting others
When stay at home orders are lifted, probably too soon in many states, particularly those controlled by republicans, there will likely be another serious outbreak in the summer.
The Stock Jocks want Gilead's drug to be a silver bullet so it is one for now, until proven that it is not. I suspect that many actually believe Donald's representations about testing. Most investors are republicans and over 70% of republicans say Donald is honest.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/04/aeb-cpxpre-cs-d-enb-doc-gmta-gmre.html