ABBV, FIDI, FINX, FMAT, FMAGX, GDV, GNL, GSG, IRBO, MMM, PRNT, SNY, VTV,

Economy: 

Initial Unemployment Claims for the W/E 1/16/21 = 900,000-News Release

Several Senate republicans made it clear during Yellen's confirmation hearing that they have once again become fiscal conservatives, a position that they can only recall when a democrat is President. Senate GOP ramped up criticism of Biden stimulus plan during Yellen hearing - Business Insider 

U.S. Government Debt 

1/20/17 : $19,947,304,555,212.49  

1/20/21: $27,756,349,666,620.64

4 year increase of $7,809+T or 39.15%

U.S. federal government debt was less than $1 trillion in 1981. 

Government - Historical Debt Outstanding - Annual 1950 - 1999

A considerable amount of GDP growth since the early 1980s has been produced by the federal government's  deficit spending and increasing debt burdens from households.  

This chart show shows total debt for all sectors as a percentage of GDP: 

 

All Sectors; Debt Securities and Loans; Liability, Level/Gross Domestic Product-St. Louis Fed

The Age of Leverage for U.S. consumers started in the mid-1980s. 

It is important IMO to realize that GDP growth has substantially depended and will increasingly become even more dependent on spending parabolic increases in new debt incurred across all sectors (all governmental entities, consumers and businesses) 

Shipping Rates Are Soaring. What That Says About the Economy — and Inflation. | Barron's; see Baltic Exchange Dry Index | 1985-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Price | Quote

Trump's parting gifts to Biden: Roaring stocks, a weaker dollar, tons of debt | Reuters

++++

Markets and Market Commentary: 

S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 1/22/21: 

GAAP TTM  = 41.74

Non-GAAP Estimated Forward 12 months: 23.42

Sourced: 

Corporate profits are going to get better and better: Credit Suisse

But see The incredible backdrop to the global stock-market rally — profits are flat since 2008 - MarketWatch This is a global stock and earnings comparison now and in 2008. 

‘Trillion on top of a trillion’ in stimulus will push 10-year Treasury yields to 2% by year-end, top forecaster says - MarketWatch

Here’s another sign that markets have gone nuts and everyone is chasing everything - MarketWatch Margin debt has exploded upward. Time to Worry About Stock Market Leverage Again: Another WTF Sign the Zoo Has Gone Nuts | Wolf Street

Goldman Sachs (GS) Q4 2020 earnings ($12.08 a share, vs. $7.47 per share expected)

Bank of America (BAC) Q4 2020 earnings beat expectations {E.P.S. $.59, 4 cents better than the consensus, maintains quarterly dividend at $.18 per share; and authorized the repurchase of $2.9B in common stock during the first quarter; earnings helped by releasing $828M from loan loss reserves. Bank of America Announces Stock Dividends and Common Stock Repurchase Plan for Q1-21; BAC SEC Filed Earnings Press Release} E.P.S. was reported at $.74 in the 2019 4th quarter.  

Charles Schwab stock jumps after profit and revenue beats, with trading households rising more than 50% - MarketWatch (non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.74, beating the consensus of $.65)

Other 4th quarter earnings reports where I have a stock position: 

Kinder Morgan Announces Results for Fourth Quarter of 2020; Maintains $0.2625 Per Share Dividend (E.P.S. $.27 vs. $.241 consensus estimate via Fidelity; distributable cash flow per share $.55; "$652 million of excess DCF above our declared dividend")

KeyCorp (KEY) Reports Record Fourth Quarter 2020 Net Income Of $549 Million, Or $.56 Per Diluted Common Share (consensus estimate reported at $.43 by YF,  2020 4th Q E.P.S. up from $.45 in the 2019 4th quarter; NPL ratio = .78%; Charge off ratio = .53%; ROA = 1.35%; ROE = 13.65%; ROTE = 16.61%; Tangible Book Value per share = 13.61; NIM at 2.7%, down from 2.98% as of 12/31/19) NIM compression resulting from FED monetary policies continues to be a major headwind. 

Seagate Technology Reports Fiscal Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results (GAAP E.P.S. $1.12; Non-GAAP E.P.S. $1.29 vs $1.13 consensus according to Fidelity; "generated $473 million in cash flow from operations and $314 million in free cash flow")

Truist (TFC) Reports Fourth Quarter 2020 Results (GAAP E.P.S. $.90, up 20% over the 2019 4th quarter; Adjusted E.P.S. at $1.18 (excludes merger related expenses and restructuring charges); non-GAAP average estimate at $.97 via YF) 

Union Bankshares (UNB) Reports Record Earnings for the year ended December 31, 2020 and Declares Increase in Quarterly Dividend (E.P.S. = $.85; net income up 37.5% Y-O-Y reflecting an increase in profits from  selling residential loans into the secondary market; quarterly dividend increased to $.33 from $.32)

Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) Reports Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings of $0.40 Per Common Share and $1.86 Per Common Share for the Full Year 2020 (average consensus was at $.31)

F.N.B. Corporation Reports 2020 Earnings per Share of $0.85 (GAAP 4th Q. E.P.S. at $.22 and at $.28 non-GAAP with the non-GAAP consensus at $.24 according to Fidelity)

Regions Financial reports 4th quarter earnings (GAAP E.P.S. $.61 vs consensus at $.39 according to Fidelity)

++++

Covid: 

As of 1/20/21

U.S. surpasses 400,000 Covid deaths nearly one year after nation's first confirmed case (1/19/20)

Covid in Children-COVID-19 and Age (American Academy of Pediatrics and and Children's Hospital Association weekly report):

The percentage of child cases resulting in death is generally in .01% or .02%. (Table C)

Hospitalizations rates have been ticking down: 

Biden invoked the Defense Production Act to boost production of testing supplies, materials used in vaccines, PPE, and other necessary items related to the pandemic. Defense Production Act 

New UK variant 'may be more deadly' - BBC News

Denmark's coronavirus sequencing shows U.K. variant cases exploding - The Washington Post ("Cases involving the variant are increasing 70 percent a week in Denmark, despite a strict lockdown, according to Denmark’s State Serum Institute.") The U.S. is just pathetic in sequencing new covid infections, currently ranked 43rd in the world with only .3% of cases being sequenced. Consequently, no one knows how the variants are spreading in the U.S. 

Dr. Fauci says Covid vaccines appear to be less effective against some new strains

European countries mandate medical-grade masks over cloth face coverings - CNN

The next several weeks will be unavoidably bad. 

+++++

Don the Authoritarian: 

Goodbye and Good Riddance - YouTube

There has been a growing calm fostered by banning Demagogue Don from Twitter. Research shows that misinformation about election fraud dropped by 73% after the Fake News President was kicked off Twitter. 

Misinformation went down after Twitter banned Trump - The Washington Post

According to the most recent NBC poll, taken after the Trump inspired assault on the U.S. Capitol, Donald's approval rating among republicans remained relatively unchanged at 87%. Trump retains support from Republicans after Capitol attack: NBC poll

Mitch McConnell:  Capitol Hill mob  were "fed lies" and  "provoked" by Trump  and other "powerful people" So where was Mitch when the lies were being spread. I seriously doubt that Mitch will be voting to convict notwithstanding the sounds that he is making now. 

The Long Prologue to the Capitol Hill Riot | The New Yorker

Far-Right Capitol Rioter 'Baked Alaska' Arrested by FBI, Charges Stem From Evidence He Filmed and Uploaded Himself

Jon Schaffer, Robert Gieswein arrested in Capitol riots - The Washington Post Gieswein is reportedly affiliated with an Oath Keepers affiliated group called the Three Percenters, a right-wing militia group that supports Trump and who wants  to "take back our country from the pure evil that is conspiring to steal our country away from the American people.”  He was charged according to a court filing with assaulting federal officers, etc.  Other people who have been arrested wearing Oath Keepers patches, combat helmets and tactical vests include Donovan Crowl, 50, a former U.S. Marine, and Army veteran Jessica Watkins, 38. A Former Marine Stormed the Capitol as Part of a Far-Right Militia | The New Yorker; Tracking down the 'Oath Keepers' who stormed the US Capitol | World News | Sky News 

Texas real estate agent on Capitol riot: 'I'm glad I was there'

Proud Boy organizer arrested in Florida for Capitol attack (He told his followers on Parler to dress in black so that antifa would be blamed) 

New video shows what it was like inside Capitol during riot

Before the Capitol Riot, Calls for Cash and Talk of Revolution-The New York Times

Timeline of National Guard Deployment to Capitol-FactCheck.org

FactChecking the Electoral College Debate-FactCheck.org

Voter Fraud Claims Shatter Trump Supporters’ Faith In US It is interesting how fast the Trumpsters will turn off anyone who contradicts their reality creations with actual facts and who abandon basic common sense in their ready acceptance of the most outlandish fact free conspiracy theories. 

Donald Trump's sordid pardons cement his corrupt legacy; Trump pardons Steve Bannon, Elliott Broidy, others on last night in White House; Opinion | The Problem With Trump’s Odious Pardon of Steve Bannon - The New York Times He at least did not pardon himself or his children. Full list of Trump's last-minute pardons and commuted sentences

 

+++

Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA)

Donald called Ms. Greene a "future republican star" and that may turn out to be true. ‘Depraved’: Rep. Jason Crow condemns Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s rhetoric ahead of impeachment vote - POLITICO

She is the republican representative for the Northwest Georgia's 14th congressional district.  

She agreed with the conspiracy theory that the Parkland. Florida and Sandy Hook school shootings were a false flag operation Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene on Facebook in 2018: Parkland school shooting was a false flag planned event 

Twitter temporarily suspends GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene 

She is a 100% pure Trumpster and a QAnon True Believer. QAnon candidate Marjorie Taylor Greene is a 9/11 conspiracy theorist who claimed that there’s no evidence a plane crashed into the Pentagon | Media Matters for America; Greene's "racist "videos - POLITICO  

She called George Soros a "Nazi"; compared BLM to the KKK and Nazis who marched at Charlottesville; advocated that Muslims be denied government jobs; and can not understand why African Americas do not want confederate statues since she would be proud of them if she was black. 

House GOP candidate known for QAnon support was 'correspondent' for conspiracy website ("in 2017, Greene wrote favorably of the QAnon conspiracy theory, suggested that Hillary Clinton murdered her political enemies, and ruminated on whether mass shootings were orchestrated to dismantle the Second Amendment.")

Marjorie Taylor Greene posts photo holding gun next to images of AOC, Omar, Tlaib - The Washington Post 

All of this was known before the republicans elected her to Congress. She was elected IMO, not in spite of those beliefs, but because of them. 

Senator Ben Sasse (R-Nebraska) wrote a column published in the Atlantic lamenting the growing influence of QAnon and baseless conspiracy theories among the republican base. The GOP Must Choose Between Conspiracy and Reality - The Atlantic Sasse may vote to convict Trump. But where was he when the lies were being spread by Trump and almost every other republican who made public statements on the subject. A few GOP senators have finally found the courage to say something that Trump will not like. The GOP remains firmly under Donald's control. It has been thoroughly Trumpified.   

++++

1. Small Ball: 

I am starting to pare my allocation to stock funds as I focus more on individual stock selections that have lower multiples and higher yields than the S & P 500 averages.  

Most of the pares and eliminations will be in stock funds that have experienced the most robust gains where my positions were small from the start. Two examples, FINX and IRBO, are discussed below. I eliminated the positions held only  in 1 taxable account. 

Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) 

iShares Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF (IRBO) 

Those kind of stock ETFs were outside of my comfort zone when I purchased them and are just more so now. 

The S & P 500 currently has a dividend yield of about 1.56%. I am mostly buying stocks whose dividend yields are at least twice that number. 

The P/E multiple for the S & P 500, using the optimistic and estimated non-GAAP forward 12 months earnings, is over 23. The same P/E multiples for the dividend stocks that I am buying are generally below 20 with most less than 15 (all the bank stocks)

A. Restarted SNY-Bought 10 at $48.35: 

Quotes:  

USD:  Sanofi ADR 

Euro: Sanofi S.A. (France: Euronext Paris) 

ADR Ratio: 1 ADRs = .5 ordinary share

Closing Price 1/22/21: SNY $49.69 +$0.05  +0.10% 

SNY Analyst Estimates (average 2021 E.P.S. at $3.77 and $4.2 in 2022; P/E using $4.2 E.P.S. and $48.35 cost = 11.51)

France charges a transaction tax of .3% of the value when buying shares. 

France's Transaction Tax: My total cost for this lot was consequently increased from $48.35 to $48.5 due to that transaction tax. 

Press Releases - 2020 - Sanofi

SEC Filed 2019 Annual Report (product overview for main products with information on patent expirations starts at page 38; information about product submissions and trials start at page 25)

SNY Liquidated Equity Interest in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN): SNY owned about 23.2 million REGN shares when it decided to sell its shares. Sanofi announces closing of Regeneron stock sale - Sanofi SNY sold 13M REGN shares "at a public offering price of $515.00 per share. . . As a result of the offering, Sanofi has sold its entire equity investment in Regeneron, (excluding 400,000 Regeneron shares, which Sanofi is retaining) for total gross proceeds amounting to $11.7 billion."

SNY reported net income from this transaction in the 2020 second quarter. E.P.S. without the gain was €1.28 and €6.07 with that capital gain.Sanofi H1 2020 business EPS(1) growth of 9.2%(2) driven by transformation - Sanofi

Summary of REGN-SNY Collaboration Agreements: REGN 2019 Annual Report at pages 13-15 

Upcoming Spinoff: Sanofi Spins Off an Industry-Leading Business (the new company will be called Euroapi and will own about 200 active pharmaceutical ingredients and an estimated $1.2B in 2022 revenues. The spinoff is expected next year. Sanofi's standalone drug ingredients business to be called EUROAPI | Reuters) 

Dividends: Annually, paid in Euros

Dividend History ADRs: American Depositary Receipts - Sanofi

2020 ADR Dividend: €1.575 x 1.1133  exchange rate = US$1.75 per ADR share before France's withholding tax 

Dividend Yield at Total Cost of $48.5 (before France's dividend tax) =  3.61% (uses 2020 dividend and exchange rate which will change this year) 

Recent acquisitions: 

Sanofi completes Principia Biopharma Inc. acquisition; 

Sanofi to acquire Principia Biopharma (8/17/20 Press Release) ("a cash tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Principia common stock for $100 per share in cash for a total enterprise value of approximately $3.36 billion.").   

Excerpt from 8/17/20 Press Release-Drugs in Trials: 

The Principia compound that is furthest along in trials, as noted in the excerpt above, is Rilzabrutinib which has several potential indications. 

Rilzabrutinib granted FDA Fast Track Designation for treatment of immune thrombocytopenia - Sanofi

Sanofi offers to acquire Kiadis for €308 million - Sanofi (11/2/20)

Sanofi to acquire Kymab, adding KY1005 to its pipeline, a human monoclonal antibody targeting key immune system regulator OX40L (1/11/21)

SNY is using the cash received from selling its REGN stock to fund bolt-on acquisitions. 

Product Revenues 2020 3rd Quarter: 

10 Year Chart as of 1/15/21:  Unfavorable 

Prior Round-Trips: The approach has been to harvest the annual dividend and to sell at a profit thereafter.  

Item # 2 Sold 50 SNY (1/18/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $130.36)-Item # 1 Bought Back 50 SNY at $38.36-Update For Healthcare Basket Strategy As Of 2/25/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha I received the 2016 annual dividend of $83.16, and Fidelity took the necessary step to claim my treaty right to a 15% withholding tax) 

Item # 6 Sold 50 SNY at $42.56- Update For Healthcare Basket Strategy As Of 8/12/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (received annual dividend for this lot)

I made this comment in that post: "I will trade the SNY ADR to capture the annual dividend and then to make 5% or plus on the shares. The holding period can be just a few months. I will try to buy SNY after a price decline and before its annual ex dividend date. The company just has not shown me enough to justify a long term hold. The last earnings report reinforced the need for a trading strategy to capture the above average dividend yield plus a positive return on the shares."

Item # 1 Bought 50 SNY at $46.69 (2/2/15 Post)(sold at $46.59, held the shares long enough to receive the annual dividend payment of $80.46 and to realize a profit of $121.93; $2.5 ADR fee and a 15% tax of $12.07 deducted from the $80.46 dividend payment)

Item # 4 Sold 50 SNY at $33.85 (9/28/10 Post)(loss of $33.98)

 

Sold Sanofi (6/30/2009 Post)-Bought 50 SNY at $27.41 (4/1/2009 Post)(harvested 1 annual dividend and sold at a $83.46 profit

Net at +$479.23 + dividends

Goal: I have not been impressed with Sanofi, which has been justified over the past decade or so as reflected in the ten year chart above. 

The loss of patent protection for Lantus and Plavix have hurt. Plavix revenues declined 40% in third quarter to €205M. 

And, as I mentioned when discussing GSK in my last post, the joint effort by GSK and SNY to develop a Covid vaccine came up short.  Maybe they will have something that works and will be able to launch during the 4th quarter. Sanofi and GSK announce a delay in their adjuvanted recombinant protein-based COVID-19 vaccine program to improve immune response in the elderly - Sanofi

I am back into the stock after a long hiatus and will settle into a longer term hold period with a position built up gradually to 50 shares. 

The company has a pipeline of 84 drugs and vaccines, with 34 of those in Phase 3 trials or submitted for marketing approval (see Argus report). Research & Development - Sanofi; 

Phase 3 and Registrations as of 9/30/20: 

Pipeline Summary.PDF. (also contains summaries of Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials)

Dupixent (developed in collaboration with Regeneron) is a treatment for atopic dermatitis (eczema). This drug produced €818M in revenues, up 69% Y-O-Y. The first FDA approval was in March 2017. The drug was later approved for treating  children (5/20) and adolescents (5/19) with the same conditions.  Other FDA approved indications are for moderate-to-severe asthma and to treat chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyposis  in adults whose disease is not controlled. That drug generated enough interest to start a new position. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20):  SEC Filed Press Release 

CER = Constant Exchange Rates

Remember that it takes 2 ADRs to equal 1 ordinary share, so the 9 month E.P.S. number for an ADR owner was €2.32, not the €4.64 shown below.    

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Argus (12/17/20): Buy with a $58 PT

S & P (11/2/20): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $52

I do not have access to this report: 

Deutsche Bank (1/15/21): Initiates with a sell rating 

B. Restarted GDV-Bought 5 at $21:

Quote: Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust Overview- A CEF

GDV SEC Filings 

Closing Price 1/22/21: GDV $22.35 -$0.19 -0.84% 

Holdings as of 9/30/20: SEC Filing

GDV Sponsor's Website 

Top Ten Holdings as of 12/31/20: 

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1. Sold 200 GDV at $21.03 (11/12/13 Post)(profit snapshot =  $1,393.8) 

Leveraged: Yes, with publicly traded preferred stock. 

Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust 5.25% Cumulative Preferred Series G (GDVPRG) 

Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust 5.375% Cumulative Preferred Series H (GDVPRH) 

Dividend: Monthly at $.11 per share ($1.32 annually)

Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust Continues Monthly Distributions, Declaring Distributions of $0.11 Per Share 

Dividend Reinvestment: No at least until there is at least a 20% decline from current S & P 500 level.  

Yield at $21 = 6.29%

Data Date of 1/4/2021 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset Value per share= $24.72

Closing Market Price: $21.08

Discount: -14.72%

3 year average discount: -9.46

Sourced: GDV CEF Connect 

Gabelli Dividend & Income (GDV)-Morningstar

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share. 

C. Started FMAT-Bought 5 at $39.5: 

Quote: Fidelity MSCI Materials Index ETF Overview 

Closing Price 1/22/21: FMAT $41.32 -$0.09 -0.22% 

Expense Ratio: .08%

Weightings at Greater than 1% as of 12/31/20: 

Sponsor's website: FMAT | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity

2020 Dividends-Paid Quarterly: 

2020 Dividend Total (rounded): $.7 per share

Yield at $39.5 using 2020 Total = 1.77% (viewed as inadequate, but is higher than the S & P 500 average)

Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/18/20

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share. 

Previous Purchases: None 

D. Restarted GSG-Bought 10 at $12.17: 

Quote: iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust Overview 

Closing Price 1/22/21: GSG $12.79 -$0.17 -1.31% 

"The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (the 'Trust') seeks to track the results of a fully collateralized investment in futures contracts on an index composed of a diversified group of commodities futures."

I discussed this purchase in 12/30/20 comment.

Sponsor's Website: iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust | GSG

Tracking Index: S&P GSCI 

Sector Weightings 2021: 

Note the 53.2% weighting in energy (WTI crude oil; heating oil; Brent crude; natural gas; RBOB gasoline; "Gas Oil") 

Sourced: News Release 12/12/20.pdf

Dividends: None

Expense Ratio: .75%

My last trade was to eliminate a small position. Item # 7 Sold GSG at $27.91 (5/21/2009 Post) GSG can not be a long term holding IMO but only a short term trade. 

2009 GSG 50 Shares +$134.96

My very simple thought on this one is that commodity prices plummet during recessions and generally have a robust recovery during a subsequent V shaped recovery. It remains to be seen whether the economic recovery will proceeds in the robust fashion currently envisioned by the Stock Jocks.  

E.  Started ABBV as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $106.62: 

Quote: AbbVie Inc. 

Closing Price 1/22/21:  ABBV $110.88 -$0.38 -0.34% 

ABBV  Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 1/16/20, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2021 was $12.92 and $14.45 for 2022; P/E at $106.62 using $14.45 E.P.S. = 7.38)

ABVV SEC Filings 

Investor Overview | AbbVie

Major Recent News Event: AbbVie Completes Transformative Acquisition of Allergan (5/8/20)(Under the terms of the transaction agreement, Allergan shareholders will receive 0.8660 AbbVie shares and $120.30 in cash for each Allergan share, for a total consideration of $193.23 per Allergan share (based on the closing price of AbbVie's common stock of $84.22 on May 7, 2020 . . . Allergan provides new growth opportunities in Neuroscience, with Botox® Therapeutics, Vraylar® and Ubrelvy™ and a global aesthetics business, with leading brands including Botox® and Juvederm®.")

The estimated cost was $63.4B of which $39.7B was paid in cash. ABBV took on a lot of new debt to fund the cash payment.  

Main Product Revenue 2020 3rd Quarter: 

5 Year Financials:

Sourced: 2019 Annual Report 

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.3 per share ($5.2 annually), raised from $1.18 effective for the 2021 first quarter payment

Yield at $106.62: 4.88%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 1/14/21

5 Year Chart: 

Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): SEC Filed News Release 

I would go with the non-GAAP E.P.S. of $2.83 (with my adjustment down to $2.81, see below) rather than the $1.29 GAAP E.P.S. number. The GAAP number reflects cash and non-cash charges related to the Allergan acquisition. 

The 2 cent adjustment for milestone payments related to previously announced collaboration agreements is debatable IMO. I would lean to taking that adjustment out. 

One major problem is that Humira will lose U.S. patent protection in 2023. It is my understanding that patent protection outside the U.S. was lost in 2018. 

Currently, Humira accounts for about 40% of revenues and a higher percentage of profits. Humira's approved indications include rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and  Crohn's disease. The decline may be more gradual given the complexities involved in manufacturing and marketing a generic biologic which is made from living organisms or elements thereof. 

Analysts expect the recently launched drugs Imbruvica, Rinvoq, Skyrizi, and Venclexta will mitigate the revenue and profit decline from Humira's loss of U.S. patent protection. The revenue growth in those compounds before Humira loses patent protection will have a significant impact on the stock price. 

The currently low P/E compared to other major drug companies reflects concerns about how earnings will be impacted by Humira's patent protection loss. 

An analogy would be to a economically cyclical company whose stock is selling well below a market P/E multiple during an economic expansion period.  

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Argus (12/8/20): Buy with a $130 PT

Morningstar (1/6/21): 3 stars with a FV of $97

S & P (11/2/20): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $94. 

Maximum Position: 20 shares, may increase up to 50 shares depending on future developments including revenue growth for recently launched drugs and FDA approval of new ones.  Pipeline - Our Science | AbbVie

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per year. 

F. Started MMM With Several Fractional Share Purchases: 

Quote: 3M Co. 

Closing Price 1/22/20: MMM $169.05 -$1.62 -0.95% 

3M Brands | A Complete List of Our Brands

3M - Investor Relations

MMM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 1/16/20, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2021 was $10.2 and $11.2 for 2022; P/E at AC of $167.73 using $11.2 E.P.S. = 14.98)

MMM SEC Filings 

2019 Annual Report 

The most serious knock on 3M is its exposures to environmental litigation and remediation, with the most problematic exposure being to "various perfluorinated compounds, including perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), or other per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (collectively PFAS)." See 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 at pages 39-49  

One analyst estimated that the total payout for all manufacturers could end up exceeding $100B, of which MMM's share would be about 30% to 35% of the total according to that analyst. 3M Stock Is Downgraded Because a Blue Wave Could Mean Trouble | Barron's I view that as wild speculation.  

As noted in that article, the concerns about this liability have increased with the Democrats gaining control over Congress and the Executive Branch. The Democrat controlled House passed in 2019 the PFAS Action Act of 2019 that designated the PFAS chemicals as hazardous substances under the Superfund law, but McConnell never took the bill up in the Senate. It may pass now which would give the EPA the power to compel firms to starting writing checks for the cleanup. Looking at the litigation summary in the last filed 10-Q, MMM has managed to kick the can down the road in many cases. Its can kicking, delaying tactics may soon end when and if the EPA is given authority under the Superfund law.   

Anyone who makes an estimate is guessing. I can only say that it is likely IMO that MMM is currently substantially under reserved for what will turn out to be its total cash liabilities. The reserve established in the 2019 4th quarter was $214M. 

As of 9/30/30, MMM stated it "is not able to estimate a possible loss or range of loss in excess of the established accruals at this time." Page 49 10-Q: 

This unknowable and potentially major downside risk keeps me on the sidelines. I remain on the sidelines with the buying of fractional shares, peaking above 1 share which is analogous to placing my little toe on top of a stray piece of chalk that had become separated from the sideline.  

5 Year Chart: 

Average Cost: $167.73

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.47 per share, last raised from $1.44 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment. I would anticipate a small increase this quarter. 

3M - Stock Information - Dividends

The annual rate per share was $5.88 in 2020 and at $2.2 in 2011. 

Yield at Average Cost: 3.51%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/19/20

Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): 

"The company’s operating cash flow was $2.5 billion with adjusted free cash flow of $2.2 billion contributing to adjusted free cash flow conversion of 153 percent. 3M paid $847 million in cash dividends to shareholders during the third quarter. The company reduced total debt by $1.2 billion, down 6 percent, and net debt by $1.3 billion, or 8 percent, sequentially."

Broker Reports: 

Morningstar (12/7/20): 3 stars with a FV of $186

Credit Suisse (12/14/20): Outperform with a $197 PT (notes that November 2020 organic revenues grew a better than expected 7% Y-O-Y)

Argus (10/27/20): Hold, will upgrade to buy if price returns to $150 technical support or the company resumes consistent earnings growth 

S & P (11/10/20): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $186 (expects MMM to outperform the S & P 500 earnings recovery in 2021-2022) 

I do not have access to these reports: 

UBS (1/15/21): Reiterates sell rating but raises PT to $158 from $150.

Deutsche Bank (1/13/21): Raises PT to $190 from $187  

Morgan Stanley (1/12/21): Maintains equal weight, while raising PT to $188 from $176

BoFA Securities (1/7/21): Downgrades to underperform with a $170 PT

G. Added $50 FMAGX at $13.05:

Quote: FMAGX | Fidelity Magellan Fund Overview (rated 2 stars; performance compared to benchmark has been poor)

Fidelity® Magellan® (FMAGX) Quote | Morningstar

Expense Ratio: .77%

Top Holdings as of 11/30/20: 

H. Pared VTV-Sold 1 at $117.96 and 1 at $122.12 (highest cost lots): 

Quote: Vanguard Value ETF Overview 

Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) Quote | Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)

Profit Snapshots: $8.61 and $19.6

Includes fractional shares bought with 2 quarterly dividend payments

New Average Cost Per Share: $102.28 (8+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday 1/7/21 after 2nd Pare

Discussion: Item # 4.M. Started VTV-Bought 10 shares in 1 share lots (8/10/20 Post) 

Sponsor's Website: VTV - Vanguard Value ETF

Expense Ratio: .04%

Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate

Last Ex Dividend: 12/24/20

Some Top Holdings as of 12/31/20: 

Maximum Position: 50 Shares

I. Added to GNL-Bought 5 at $16.9: 

Quote: Global Net Lease Inc. -Externally Managed REIT

Closing Price 1/22/21: GNL $16.97 +$0.09 +0.53% 

As of 9/30/20, GNL "owned 299 properties consisting of 34.7 million rentable square feet, which were 99.6% leased, with a weighted-average remaining lease term of 8.7 years. Based on the percentage of annualized rental income on a straight-line basis, as of September 30, 2020, 63% of our properties were located in the United States (“U.S.”) and Canada and 37% of our properties were located in Europe, and our portfolio was comprised of 47% industrial/distribution properties, 48% office properties and 5% retail properties." 

GNL SEC Filings 

Investor Relations: Overview | GNL

Investment Strategy: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy 

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 (Mortgage note list at page 16; credit facility information at pages 18-19; related party transactions at page 28; property list at pages 41-44)

2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 9 and ends at page 31)

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.E. Bought 1 GNL at $13.19 and 1 at $12.61 (5/23/20 Post); Item # 4.A. Added 5 GNL at $17.65; 5 at $16.87, 5 at $16.3; 5 at $14.6; 5 at $14; 10 at $13.5; 5 at $12.94; 2 at $12.66; 2 at $12.1; 2 at $11; 1 at 10.1; 4 at $11.48 and 2 at $10.8  (4/4/20 Post) 

Average Cost Per Share This Account: $16.18 (143+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share ($1.6 annually)

Global Net Lease, Inc. Announces Common Stock Dividend for First Quarter 2021

As previously discussed, GNL slashed its annual dividend rate to $1.6 from $2.13 last year. Global Net Lease Announces Dividend Change  (3/30/20) The company blamed the pandemic but it was paying out too much IMO before the pandemic. The pandemic provided an excuse to cut the dividend. 

Yield at AC = 9.89%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 1/8/21 (all shares owned as of except for shares (3.33) purchased with this dividend)   

Recent News: 

Global Net Lease Announces 97% Of Fourth Quarter Rent Collected; Approximately $290 Million Of Acquisitions During Quarter (1/7/21)

Global Net Lease Announces Successful Completion Of $500 Million Senior Unsecured Note Offering And BBB- Credit Rating From S&P (12/17/20)

Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): Global Net Lease Reports Third Quarter 2020 Results | GNL

AFFO = $.47 per share 

"As of September 30, 2020, the Company had $300.0 million of cash and cash equivalents.

As of September 30, 2020, the percentage of debt that is fixed rate (including variable rate debt fixed with swaps) decreased to 90.5% from 93.0% as of September 30, 2019. The Company's total combined debt had a weighted average interest rate of 3.1% resulting in an interest coverage ratio of 3.8 times. Weighted-average debt maturity based on outstanding principal balance of the debt on the last day of the applicable quarter decreased to 5.1 years as of September 30, 2020 from 5.7 years at September 30, 2019." 

Sell Discussions: Item # 1.E. Sold 10 GNL at $21.51 (2/19/20 Post); Item # 2.B. Pared GNL-Sold Highest Cost 50 Shares at $20.05 (12/11/19 Post)

Realized Gains to Date:  $24.2

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments. 

J. Eliminated FINX in Schwab Taxable-Sold 6 at $46.9:  

Quote: FINX | Global X FinTech ETF Overview

Profit Snapshot: +$79.8

Item # 1.I. Bought 5 FINX at $33.69; 1 at $33.14 (7/3/20 Post) 

Sponsor's Website: FinTech ETF

Expense Ratio: .68%

K. Eliminated IRBO in Schwab Taxable-Sold 5 at $39.96: 

Quote: IRBO | iShares Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF Overview

Profit Snapshot: +$56.3

Item #3.A. Bought 5 IRBO in Schwab Taxable Account at $28.7 (7/18/20 Post)

Sponsor's Website: iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF | IRBO  

Expense Ratio: .47%

L. Pared FIDI-Sold 2 at $18.5 (part of highest cost lot): 

Quote: FIDI | Fidelity International High Dividend ETF Overview

Profit Snapshot: +$3.68

New Average Cost Per Share: $16.18

Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Started FIDI-Bought 10 at $16.56; 5 at $16.11; 5 at $15.91 (8/2/20 Post); Item #1.O. Added 2 FIDI at $15.46 (10/24/20 Post) 

Sponsor's website: FIDI | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity

Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate

2020 Dividend Total: $.615 per share

Yield at $16.18 AC Using 2020 Dividend Total = 3.8%

Holdings: 93 stocks as of 12/31/20

Holdings at greater than 1%: 

M. Eliminated PRNT-Sold 2 at $37.1: 

Quote: 3D Printing ETF Overview

Profit Snapshot: +$20.49 

Item # 1.E. Bought 2 PRNT at  at $26.85(12/2/2020 Post) 

Sponsor's website: The 3D Printing ETF - PRNT

Expense Ratio: .66%

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.