Economy:
CPI May 2021 jump 5%, the fastest pace since the summer of 2008 Core CPI rose 3.8% Y-O-Y.
Prior to the release of this report, I noted in a comment that the annual rate would be hot in part due to the negative CPI number reported in May 2020. The FED chooses to de-emphasize CPI and focuses instead on personal consumption expenditure inflation. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
See also, Sticky-Price CPI - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (increased at a 4.5% annualized rate in May, following a 5.5% increase in April, and up 2.7% Y-O-Y)
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (current forecast is for 9.5% real GDP growth in the second quarter)
Notwithstanding those numbers, the federal funds rate remains stuck at .06%. The Fed - Selected Interest Rates (Daily) - H.15 - June 11, 2021. To categorize that .06% FF rate as an extreme historical aberration given the inflation and GDP data would be a massive understatement.
Nationwide Homeowner Equity Gains Hit $1.9 Trillion in Q1 2021, CoreLogic Reports
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google targeted in bipartisan antitrust reform bills Whenever a politician uses the word reform, I have a tendency to reach for my wallet to see whether it is still in my pant's pocket.
The most important market news last week was how quickly and easily investors dismissed the problematic inflation report.
The ten-year treasury yield fell last week.
This is what the real yields on the TIPs look like:
Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates
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Donald of course violated Facebook's policies throughout his 4-year term as President without consequences until the very end. He regularly spewed his venom and hate speech, proving beyond any doubt that he is an obviously awful human being. Donald Trump to remain banned from Facebook for two years, effective from Jan. 7 Republicans, for the most part, ate it up and found the Duck entertaining.
National Review writer 'can attest' to Trump pressing conservatives to say the election was 'stolen' | TheHill I would quit humoring these people by agreeing with their self-titled "conservative" label.
Denying Biden Won, Rising Republicans Attack Legitimacy of Elections; republished at MSN.com from the Rejecting Biden’s Win, Rising Republicans Attack Legitimacy of Elections - The New York Times
Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL), one of the Republicans who beat a democrat incumbent last November, has figured out what is causing the increase in violent attacks against Jewish Americans. The cause is socialism in the U.S. according to Ms. Salazar. Congresswoman under fire for bizarre claim all socialists are ‘anti-Jew’ | The Independent When nonsensical and bizarre claims are made by Trumpsters, a normal state of affairs for them, truth is acquired merely by constant repetition.
At their recent convention, members of America's anti-democracy party censured the Georgia Republican Secretary of State for certifying the election results as required by law. Brian Kemp booed, Brad Raffensperger censured at Georgia GOP convention Raffensperger's sin in Trump's America was his failure to certify Donald as the winner in Georgia notwithstanding the county certifications that resulted in Biden carrying the state and two Democrats replacing incumbent GOP senators. Georgia's republicans have now passed a law that will allow the republican legislators to directly interfere in the vote-counting process, so a close election in that state will go the right way the next time. "One of the most significant changes in the new law is that it removes the secretary of state as chair of the State Election Board, replacing that elected official with a chair selected by the General Assembly. It also allows the state board to remove county election superintendents — a combined election and registration board in most counties — without providing much notice or giving them a meaningful chance to defend against their removal, and then allows the state board to appoint a single person in their place." Suit: Georgia election law threatens voting, speech rights - ABC News
Trump and his allies try to rewrite, distort the history of the pandemic while casting Fauci as public enemy No. 1; republished by MSN.com from The Washington Post
Rep. Mike Nearman (R) instructs people on getting into Oregon Capitol in a video - The Washington Post He has been charged with allowing Trumpsters to unlawfully storm into the Oregon capital building. Some of the Trumpsters attacked law enforcement officers and destroyed property. This Trumpster riot occurred on 12/21/20.
California assault weapons ban overturned: Judge Roger Benitez likens AR-15 to Swiss Army knife in the ruling - The Washington Post Benitez is a Republican. He has no idea how ridiculous he sounds making that comparison.
John Dean Calls Surveillance by Trump-Era DOJ 'Nixon on Stilts and Steroids' What is proved even if the data showed a democrat congressman called or had a call from a reporter? Even if the data proved that happened, that is no evidence that the congressman divulged classified material. Just another abuse of Presidential power by Trump and his sniveling sycophant Bill Barr.
++++
Issuer Calls:
 |
| No Make Whole Payment for municipal bond early redemptions |
 |
| 1 Bond with an $18.56 premium make-whole payment |
 |
| Profit 1 bond = $28.94 |
In another corporate bond early redemption, I am not able to compute the make-whole premium payment but it will be a substantial percentage. I own 4 CoreLogic 7.55% senior unsecured bonds that mature in 2028. FINRA Page (original name First American). CoreLogic is in the process of being acquired and has called this bond. CoreLogic Shareholders Approve Acquisition by Stone Point Capital and Insight Partners; Corelogic, Inc. 2021 Current Report 8-K (redemption expected on 7/4/21)
+++++
1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Sold 50 FFHPRG:CA at C$17.6:
Quote: FFH-PG.TO
Profit Snapshot: C$151
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 FFHPRG at C$14.54 (11/13/19 Post)
Par Value: C$25
Issuer: Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (Canada: Toronto)
Placement in Capital Structure: Equity Preferred stock, senior only to common stock. Coupon: 2.56% spread to the 5-year Canadian government bond, resets every 5 years.
Last 5 Year Reset: September 2020 at a 2.962% coupon:
The 2015 reset coupon was at 3.318%.
Next Reset: September 2025
When I bought this preferred stock in 2019, I was expecting an increase in the coupon rate, but then the pandemic hit and interest rates collapsed into the reset time period.
2. Bought 100 AMCR at $11.97:
Quote: Amcor PLC
Closing Price 6/11/21: AMCR $12.25 +$0.18 +1.49%
"Amcor is a global leader in developing and producing responsible packaging for food, beverage, pharmaceutical, medical, home and personal-care, and other products. . . Around 47,000 Amcor people generate $12.5 billion in annual sales from operations that span about 230 locations in 40-plus countries."
This is a new name for me. When discussing this purchase in a comment, I categorized AMCR as a bunt for a single kind of stock. A 10% total return after a 1 year holding period would consequently be viewed as more than satisfactory.
AMCR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 6/7/21, consensus 2021 E.P.S. is at $.73, rising to $.79 in 2022 and $.83 in 2023)
AMCR Annual Report for the Fiscal Year ending 6/30/20
5 Year Financial Data Through 6/30/20:
Last Bond Offering (May 2020): $800M 2.69% SU maturing in 2031; FINRA Page
Last Major Acquisition: Amcor Completes Acquisition of Bemis, Creating the Global Leader in Consumer Packaging (6/11/2019)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.115 per share ($.47 annually)
Yield at $11.97 cost per share: 3.93%
Last Ex-Dividend: 5/25/21 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release The release does not break out quarterly results.
9 month numbers (Fiscal Year ends 6/30/21):
GAAP Net Income: $684M, up 58%
9 Month GAAP E.P.S. = $.438, up 63%
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.515
Free Cash Flow = $360M, negatively impacted Y-O-Y by $50M resulting from the timing of a U.S. tax payment. Without that impact, free cash flow was up 10%.
Repurchased approximately 2% of outstanding shares
F/Y ending 6/30/2021 guidance:
Adjusted 14% to 15% constant currency E.P.S. growth based on an adjusted $.642 E.P.S. in the previous fiscal year.
Free cash flow = $1B to $1.1B
3. Small Ball:
A. Bought 2 FCX at $41.33; 1 at $40.29 :
Quote: Freeport-McMoRan Inc
FCX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
5 Year Mining Data (Annual at pages 28-29):
Copper price falls after China said it will stabilize commodity market - MINING.COM (5/19/21)
Copper Prices - 45 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends I am skeptical about copper prices being able to hold recent gains. The price per ton was mostly below $1.5 between 1960-2004. The recent price surge did take out the top price hit in 2011.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/2021): SEC Filed Press Release
Revenues: $4.85B, up from $2.798B in the 2020 1st Q.
Net Income: $718M or $.48 per share
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.51
Average Realized Prices: $3.94 per pound for copper, $1,713 per ounce for gold, and $11.62 per pound for molybdenum
Average Unit Costs for Copper = $1.39 per pound
Operating Cash Flow: $1.075B
B. Bought 50 TGB at $2.28:
Owns 75% of the operating Gilbralter Mine, one of the largest copper mines in North America and owns other mines that are in the development stage. Those are "the Florence Copper, which is advancing towards production, as well as the Yellowhead copper, New Prosperity gold-copper, Aley niobium and Harmony gold projects."
In-situ Copper Recovery Is a Rare Opportunity for Florence Cooper; Taseko Mines: Court of Appeal Decides in Favor of Florence Copper (3/23/21)(refers to still waiting for EPA to issue "key operating permit"); Taseko Mines Completes Notes Offering and Moves Forward with Florence Copper Commercial Production Facility (2/10/21) Of the projects in development, this one is the furthest along.
Ultimately, whether this Lotto proves to be a winner will IMO be dependent on one or more of those mines in development becoming successful.
TGB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
TGB SEC Filings (foreign issuer)
Taseko Mines Limited: SEC Form 40-F Foreign Company Annual Report
Last Bond Offering (2/2021): $400M of 7% Senior Secured Notes. Taseko Mines Completes Notes Offering and Moves Forward with Florence Copper Commercial Production Facility
Results in 2020-2019 Comparison:
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
I have owned this stock previously as a Lotto.
TGB has recently risen from the dead as shown in this 2-year chart:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): Taseko Reports First Quarter 2021 Financial & Operating Results
Summary:
Details:
Previous Round-Trip: Item # 6 Sold Lotto TGB at $2.5 (8/10/2009)
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| 2009 TGB 100 shares +$141.1 |
C. Pared CSCO-Sold 2 at $49.68; 3.119 at $52.19:
Quote: Cisco Systems Inc.
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.G. Added to CSCO-Bought 1 at $38.82; 1 at $38.34; 1 at $37.69 (10/17/20 Post); Item # 1.H. Restarted CSCO-Bought 1 at $42.62; 1 at $42.1; 1 at $41.88; 2 at $41; 5 at $40.75; 1 at 40.33; 1 at $39.45 (9/13/2020)
Profit Snapshot: +$52.46 (5+ shares)
New Average Cost per share this account: $38.5 (13+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday 5/20 after second pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.37 ($1.48 annually), last raised from $.36 effective for the 2021 second quarter payment
Yield at new AC = 3.84%
Next Ex-Dividend: 7/2/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 5/1/21): Cisco (CSCO) Reports Third Quarter Earnings GAAP E.P.S. = $.68; Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.83 with the consensus estimate at $.82 per Fidelity;
revenue = $12.8B up 7% Y-O-Y;
4th Q. guidance: GAAP E.P.S. at $.64-$.69 and Non-GAAP $.81 to $.83 with the non-GAAP consensus prior to this guidance at $.85;
blames lower than forecasted earnings on supply chain issues;
about 3% of growth due to quarter being 14 weeks rather than 13
Overall, I am not impressed with recent earnings and revenue growth numbers.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.N. Sold 4 CSCO at $47.21 (2/20/21 Post)(profit snapshot= $40.16); Item # 2.F. Sold 3 CSCO in Fidelity Taxable Account at $42.8-highest cost lots (12/25/20 Post)((+$1.79)
Item # 1.H. (9/13/2020)(contains snapshots of round-trip trades starting in 2009 through 2019 generating a profit of $1,804.65)
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (5/20/21): 3 stars with a $50 FV, raised from $48 in this report
Credit Suisse (5/20/21): Neutral with a $46 PT.
Argus (5/20/21): Buy and rates as core long term holding
S & P (5/20/21): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $59.
CSCO Profits 2009 to Date: $1,899.06
I did not take snapshots prior to starting this blog in 2008 or track profits in specific stocks.
D. Pared FLO-Sold 5 at $24.86 - highest cost lot Schwab Taxable:
Quote: Flowers Foods Inc.
10-Q for the Fiscal Quarter ending Q/E 4/21/21
FLO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Our Family of Brands – Flowers Foods (primarily bread)
Flowers Foods At-A-Glance – Flowers Foods
Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Added to FLO Bought 1 at $21.92 (3/20/21 Post)
I discussed the earnings report for the quarter ending 1/2/21 in that post.
New Average Cost per share this account: $22.38 (20+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday 5/20/21 after pare |
Yield at New AC = 3.57%
Last Ex-Dividend: 6/9/21
Last Earnings Report (Fiscal Quarter ending 4/24/21):
Flowers Foods Reports First Quarter 2021 Results
Adjusted E.P.S. $.41
Consensus at $.37 or $.39 depending on the service compiling
GAAP E.P.S. at $.34 with Net Income at $71.655M
Revenues: $1.3B
FLO reported $41.386M in non-cash depreciation and amortization expenses that reduce both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings.
"For the first quarter of fiscal 2021, cash flow from operating activities decreased by $8.2 million to $98.0 million, capital expenditures increased $5.6 million to $27.3 million, and dividends paid increased $2.2 million to $42.5 million."
The adjusted E.P.S. number does not add back those non-cash expenses but only a 6 cent loss on the extinguishment of debt and non-recurring consulting costs of 2 cents per share.
E. Started as a Placeholder BMRN-Bought 2 at $77.65 (Vanguard); 1 at $77.55 (Fidelity); 2 at $76.95 (Schwab):
Current Position All Accounts: 5 shares with a $77.35 average cost per share
Maximum Position: 20 shares
Purchase Restriction: 1 or 2 share lots at the lowest price in each chain.
Quote: BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.
Closing Price 6/11/21: BMRN $82.07 -$1.60 -1.91%
Website: BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.
BMRN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
5-year chart:
The two drugs that are furthest along are Vosoritide for Achondroplasia (brand name "Voxzogo") and Valoctocogene Roxaparvovec for Severe Hemophilia A (brand name "Roctavian").
The stock fell 35% in 1 day when the FDA issued a Complete Response letter requesting more time to evaluate Roctavian. FDA rejects Roctavian, BioMarin hemophilia drug - CBS News (8/19/20): FDA Delays Decision on Roctavian, Hemophilia A Gene Therapy Candidate, for a Year or More (8/19/20) Approval was previously expected this August. If approved for marketing, the commercial launch will probably be delayed until the 2022 second half. The phase 3 study showed that Roctavian reduced the bleeding rate by 84%. BioMarin Announces Positive Phase 3 Gene Therapy Trial Results in Adults with Severe Hemophilia A; Study Met All Primary and Secondary Efficacy Endpoints in One-Year Data Set - Jan 10, 2021
Roctavian, Potential Hemophilia A Gene Therapy, Get Fresh FDA Support;
In late April, the FDA's decision on the Voxzogo NDA was delayed until November 2021, an additional 3 months, to afford that agency more time to review recently filed and updated Phase 3 trial results covering a 2 year period.
Drugs (includes patent expiration information):
5 Year Historical Financials:
 |
| Page 59 Annual Report |
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| Page 8-9 Annual Report |
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP to Non-GAAP:
2021 Guidance:
Due to generic competition in the U.S., 2021 first-quarter revenues for Kuvan fell to $70.8M from $122M in the 2020 first quarter.
F. Eliminated T in Vanguard and Schwab Taxable Accounts-Sold 31+ at $29.91 and 9 at $29.91:
 |
| 31+ Schwab |
 |
| 9 Vanguard |
Quote: AT&T Inc.
Closing Price 6/11/21: T $29.32 +$0.14 +0.48%
AT&T Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
5 Year Chart:
I have become weary of AT & T.
The five-year annual average total return (dividends reinvested) currently stands at -.45%. DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.M. Added To T: Bought 2 at $27.95; 1 at $27.78; 1 at $27.57; 1 at $27.13 and 1 at 26.77 (10/24/20 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 5 T at $27.7 and 10 at $26.95-Used Commission Free Trades(1/16/19 Post)
Profit snapshots: net of +$49.32
Management claims that the reduced dividend will be competitive at the slashed rate, a point that has an appearance of validity but is only a legerdemain. One of the comparison stocks used when making that claim is Verizon. The difference is that a stock like Verizon has more than doubled in price since 2010, as it has raised its dividend, while AT & T's stock is about where it was 11 years ago and the dividend is about to be slashed 50%. AT & T's management and Board have incinerated billions of shareholder capital. The DirectTV acquisition price was one of the most boneheaded money-losing decisions made in the past 50 years.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.A. Sold 11 AT & T at $38.21- Highest Cost Shares (3/7/20 Post)(profit = $73.88); Item # 1.B. Sold 13 AT & T at $38.49 (10/30/19 Post)(profit $74.41); Item # 1.E. Sold 10 T at $37.77 (1/28/18 Post)(profit = $42.65); Item # 7 Sold 102+ AT&T at $28.96 (11/3/2010); Item # 5 Sold 100 AT & T at 28.69 (9/27/10 Post). Those sales in 2010 resulted in a $750.6 profit.
 |
| 2010 AT & T |
I started to sour on AT & T thereafter and never came close to owning even 100 shares since 2010.
I am likely to keep my remaining 40+ shares at least until I receive the Discovery shares. My average cost per share is $28.47:
 |
| As of the close on 6/11/21 |
G. Pared BMY in Schwab Taxable-Sold 1 at $67.1:
Quote: Bristol Myers Squibb Co.
BMY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Bristol Myers Squibb: Investor Relations
Products and Medicines - Bristol Myers Squibb
Profit Snapshot: $5.55
New Average Cost per share in this account: $60.83 (13+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday 5/20/21 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.49 per share ($1.96 annually)
Yield at new AC = 3.22%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/31/21
I discussed the last earnings report in Item # 3.B.
Last Buy Discussions:
Item # 1.M. Added to BMY-Bought 1 at $59.9; 3 at $59.7 (2/21/21 Post)
Item #3.M. Added to BMY- Bought 2 at $61.05 (1/1/21 Post)
H. Pared IGR-Sold all shares purchased with dividends at $8.31:
Profit Snapshot: +$49.1 (5/20/21 sale only)
Average Cost per share after the pare this account: $5.15 (182 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 5/20/21 after pare |
Yield at New AC of $5.15: 11.65%
Data Date of 5/20/21 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $9.06
Closing Market Price: $8.32
Discount: -8.17%
5 Year Average Discount as of 6/4/21: -13.28%
Sourced: IGR-CEF Connect
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis.
I. Pared CGBD in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 12 at $13.65:
Quote: TCG BDC Inc.
Management: External
2020 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 23 and ends on page 50)
3 Year Historical Data (pp 57-58)
Profit Snapshot: $3.51
New Average Cost per share in this account: $12.71 (123+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday 5/21/21 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.32 per share (regular only)
CGBD has been paying a supplemental dividend. The last one was $.04 per share paid in the 2021 second quarter, down from $.05 paid in the first quarter.
Yield at $12.71: 10.08% (regular only)
Next Ex-Dividend: 6/29/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
NII per share = $.36
NAV per share = $15.70
Internal Risk Ratings:
Net Asset Value per share history:
Net Asset Value ("NAV") Per Share History: Sourced from 10-Qs
3/31/21: $15.7
6/30/20: $14.8
6/30/19: $16.58
6/30/18: $17.93
6/30/17: $18.01
The Initial Public Offering was in June 2017. The public offering price was $18.75. The external advisor paid 50% of the $.56 per share underwriters' discount's Prospectus CGBD's offering expenses were then estimated at $1.8M or approximately $.20 per share. After those net expense items, the net proceeds to the BDC were about $18.27 per share.
J. Bought 1 VOX at $135.71:
Quote: Vanguard Communication Services ETF Overview
Closing Price 6/11/21: VOX $140.87 +$0.47 +0.33%
Sponsor's Website: Vanguard
Expense Ratio: .10%
Holdings: 114 stocks
Holdings with a greater than 1% weighting:
K. Pared JQC-Sold 5.99 shares at $6.57:
Quote: Nuveen Credit Strategies Income Fund Overview- A leveraged CEF
Sponsor's Website: Nuveen
Nuveen Credit Strategies Income Fund-SEC Filed semiannual shareholder report for the period ending 1/31/21
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2 Bought 100 JQC in Vanguard Account at $5.82(7/11/20 Post) That lot has been sold.
Leveraged: Substantial at 36.41% as of 4/30/21
Profit Snapshot: +$4.86 (5/25/21 sale only)
New Average Cost per share = $5.58 (80 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday 5/25/21 after pare |
Dividend reinvestment has been turned off. All shares purchased with dividends have been sold.
Heavy ROC Support even after cuts
Next Ex-Dividend Date: 6/14/21
Data Date of 5/25/21 Sale:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $6.99
Closing Market Price: $6.57
Discount: -6.01%
Average 5-year Discount: -9.91%
Sourced: JQC- CEF Connect
The largest gain to date was $1,060.29. Item # 5 Sold 804+ JQC at $9.35 (5/16/12)
Credit Quality: Junk
Current Opinion: Unfavorable (1) based on declining monthly dividend rate; (2) narrowing discount below 3 and 5-year averages; (3) junky portfolio; and (4) high leverage subject to a potential rise in cost.
Goal: Any total return--before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis-- in excess of the dividend payments.
L. Added to VRTX- Bought $50 at $208.34; $50 at $207; $50 at $205.5; $20 at $198.83; $50 at $196.44; $20 at $194.83; $20 at $194; $50 at $193 and CRSP Buys:
I am not exactly swinging a big stick on this one. More like a twig 1/4 of the size of my little toe.
Quote: Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Closing Price 6/11/21: VRTX $193.02 -$23.75 -10.96%
Average Cost Per Share: $206.58 (3+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot as of close on 6/11/21 |
VRTX was slammed yesterday based on VX-864 failing in a Phase 2 trial for Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency. Vertex Announces Primary Endpoint Achieved in Phase 2 Study of VX-864 in Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency That sounds like a success but VRTX went on to state in the press release that the positive impact was "unlikely to translate into substantial clinical benefit" and consequently VRTX will end the trial.
Broker Response on 6/11/21:
Morningstar maintained its 4 star rating and a $259 fair value estimate, noting that it had given only a 10% chance that VX-864 would be approved by the FDA.
On the same day, VRTX and CRSP announced positive results from the ongoing trial for CTX-001. Vertex and CRISPR Therapeutics Present New Data in 22 Patients With Greater Than 3 Months Follow-Up Post-Treatment With Investigational CRISPR/Cas9 Gene-Editing Therapy, CTX001™ at European Hematology Association Annual Meeting I believe this may have been largely anticipated based on an earlier disclosure.
VRTX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Pipeline | Vertex Pharmaceuticals
5 Year Chart: The share price break in October 2020 was caused by another drug failure.
Prior to yesterday's news, I attributed the recent share price weakness to concerns about the longevity of VRTX's cystic fibrosis drug franchise and what comes next. The failure of the VX-864 compound exacerbated the "what comes next" concerns.
VRTX owns 60% of CRISPR Therapeutics gene-editing CTX001, having paid CRSP dearly for that interest. This therapy is currently in early-stage trials for sickle cell anemia and beta-thalassemia therapy. Even if the therapy is approved by the FDA and other regulatory agencies, there still may be a question of whether VRTX received an adequate rate of return on its substantial investment.
I initially thought that VRTX was a safer way than CRSP to play CTX001, since CRSP has already monetized a 60% interest and VRTX has significant revenues from its cystic fibrosis franchise, but that has not turned out to be the case so far.
Maximum VRTX Position: 10 shares (2 shares recently bought in other accounts)
My CRSP dollar position is currently profitable in this account and has a higher dollar value than VRTX:
 |
| Fidelity Account as of the close on 6/11/21 |
I own 2 CRSP shares in other accounts:
I am not sure now what my limit will be on a CRSP share position. Right Brain wanted to take the position up to 100 shares when the price fell below $100, but the Old Geezer nixed the effort. Instead of buying 100 shares, our Head Trader here at HQ, Left Brain, bought $100 when the price fell below $100:
BioMarin is very interesting. It seems impatient to take down the price over a delay. And very typical of investors. Maybe FDA delays are a sign of definite trouble and I'm unaware of that? But unless it's careful speak for "for'get'about'it"... this has good potential still in my view.
ReplyDeleteI like CRSP better than VRTX. I can't give a concrete reason why. It feels closer to the action, like CRSP management has a good handle and will keep slogging along. VRTX feels complicated to get benefit out of for the company. You describe their deal as expensive. Maybe it feels like they gambled some. And my experience with that gambling management a little greedy for profit, is I wind up losing when stock management is like that.
Of course I haven't looked at either's balance sheets and histories enough to be sure of this impression. I could be way way off.
I don't seen CRSP as hugely a buy and profitable on it's current diseases it's aiming to treat. Sickle cell is a limited audience. It's that being early in the proof of concept, will make them wildly popular with lots of doors to start other experiments, while investors buy in. In other words, it changes their status to 'proven' and 'experts,' in an area with nearly unlimited future potential.
----
"The most important market news last week was how quickly and easily investors dismissed the problematic inflation report. "
I listened to Cavoccio (spelling won't stick in my head). He shows that if some charts go up from here, it's bullish. If they go down, it's bearish. Well, okay. It basically means the market isn't overly obvious about it's direction. And we all knew that.
However, several of those charts are bonds vs market. Or bonds vs gov't bonds. Bonds recently are doing better than stocks. That reflects what you've pointed out. The market doesn't think 1) rates are going up 2) inflation will matter.
It's bizarre. (That's me, not him.)
For whoever can figure out what this odd combination means to the market's prices...this is a good setup for profiting.
But I'm not even seeing articles trying to figure this out.
----
I'm going to wander through some ups and downs of it to see what thoughts appear.
.
Inflation with low rates, means more of no place but the market & maybe real estate. This is critical for my portfolio, so I assume for many others.
It means as soon as rates start rising, the pullback with be superswift & startling. And CNBC will be baffled for days. So if ready and a bear trader, it's a good profit opportunity.
But they aren't rising or hinting at it yet. Fed isn't going to. Gov't will drown if rates go up, so there's lots of motivation not to.
If there's inflation, it costs more to build things. Companies profit margins will come down some. Most of it will pass onto customers. Salaries will pressure to increase but not keep up all that fast.
So earnings will go down in inflation adjusted dollars as customers have less spending cash. P/Es will either warble more. Or because in straight #s Es will go up, Ps may be simplistic about it and go up more.
Buybacks will increase at first, while rates are low before it's 'too late.'. But only if some rate risk is sniffed out.
That's all I have at the moment.
Land: The FDA's delay on BioMarin's Roctavian create uncertainty that makes investors nervous. The issue, as I understand it, is that the data shows a decline in benefits over time and the worry, justifiable or not, is that the decline may interfere with other treatments over a period of time.
DeleteA patent generally lasts for 20 years, but exclusivity is extended for 5 years due to the delays that accompany FDA approval, an extension the drug companies acquired by virtue of the Hatch-Waxman Act passed in 1984. Other extensions are possible.
https://www.ajmc.com/view/a636-article
https://www.drugpatentwatch.com/blog/how-long-do-drug-patents-last/
So the FDA's delays in the approval process will generally not impact the revenues ultimately received by the drug company.
There was a parabolic rise in BMRN's price just prior to the delay which immediately collapsed after the FDA's decision last August, returning to about where it was prior to that rise.
The market cap is relatively small for a drug company with existing products at around $15B.
BMRN IMO needs the two compounds currently in delay.
++
CRSP is developing other therapies that VRTX does not have an ownership interest. CTX-001 is the furthest along. The last 10% interest in CTX-001 acquired by VRTX cost $900M in cash + another $200M when and if approved by the FDA.
Pipeline:
http://www.crisprtx.com/programs/pipeline
The CRISPR/Cas9 is interesting as part of a diabetes type 1 therapy along with stem cells.
http://www.crisprtx.com/programs/regenerative-medicine
Recent Preclinical Supporting NovelApproach to Increasing CAR-T Cell Function:
https://crisprtx.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/crispr-therapeutics-presents-preclinical-data-aacr-2021
"CRISPR Therapeutics Reports Positive Top-Line Results from Its Phase 1 CARBON Trial of CTX110™ in Relapsed or Refractory CD19+ B-cell Malignancies"
https://crisprtx.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/crispr-therapeutics-reports-positive-top-line-results-its-phase
Since I have zero expertise in this area, I will generally keep my exposure light. If CRSP's gene editing works for several diseases, I will not need to own many shares to generate a significant gain. I recognize that it will be a long time before anything is approved, though accelerated approval for CTX-001 is possible with continued positive outcomes.
That's helpful info on both of them.
DeleteI need to learn about CarT from the patient side. There's a reasonable chance that I'd need to or benefit from doing it. I joined a patient support group that the 11th CarT patient from 6 years ago, is running. I'm trying to get the hang of it, the language, and factors. Currently I'm waiting for more trials to improve the process.
It reads as though it's Tcells from donors. Currently the method is removal from patient, back into patient.
"There were no cases of Graft-vs-Host Disease (GvHD) despite high HLA-mismatch between allogeneic CAR-T donors and patients."
50% complete response (CR) for DLBCL and Follicular is a good result. It's similar to result rates chart I saw in a presentation last week. It's 80% or more in conditions closer to mine.
The adverse events rate is a little high at 30%. But a lot of it was the cytokine storms (drug's too effective too quickly, overwhelms the body) and it's from 2020... doctors have much improved how to anticipate and handle those already.
With what reads like 11 subjects. 4 got CR altogether. However their big focus is seeing how different dose levels respond.
For this topic, they are working on a proven concept. It's variations that they are developing.
It'd be interesting when I got back to the articles to read, I have piled up and see if their name comes up. And how this compares. I find it's dense reading. It does cause some good naps to happen.
---
For C's videos - forgot what stood out that I learned.
There's gaps up and down. He points those out as significant when reading whether a bull or bear are closing the gap and ready to continue. ...or the gap is a resistance. I've never used them before. So, will notice them now.
Land: I have review CRISPR's summary explanation of its CAR-T therapy approach:
Deletehttp://www.crisprtx.com/programs/immuno-oncology
Pages 12-18 of the 2020 Annual Report:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674416/000156459021006074/crsp-10k_20201231.htm
I do not have a clue whether or not it will be viable. My responses are that is interesting and could be huge if it works out. So throw some money at it is my conclusion. Apparently one patient died after achieving a complete response (page 17 near top of page)
A lay person explanation...much more clear.
DeleteSo it very much is moving from patient removed cells, to donor modified or off the shelf cells.
Test results showed strong enough, close enough to the current CarTs, to be proof of concept of using foreign Ts.
So that's impressive.
They're also aiming at the big question on doctor's minds... can we use it on solids, can we, pretty pretty please, can we?
A lot of companies are working on that. It will happen. But hard to know if they'll have the leading profit making product for any of that in particular. But they should be in the mix.
I supposed what I need to look at is their competition.
The write up impresses me that they hired a good PR firm. They make their product in the splashy yellow, seem like a ray of sunshine and delight.
SOXX is up near it's old peak. To sell or not to sell.
Delete5 shares, up 127%. So lot of tax liability. I'll kick myself when it retreats.
Will it ever be lower than this again? And will I catch and buy back in? All I'd gain is the trading profit. It's not really "locking in profits."
Stocks are up enough that I'm now 62% invested since a month ago. I barely bough so that's not why.
Citigroup upgraded CRSP from sell to neutral and raised it PT from $55 to $132. The stock is currently at $128.75. I do not have access to that report but it is on its face worthless or worse than worthless for an investor waiting for a significant decline below $50 to provide a cushion to that $55 PT. The stock has been trading at over $50 since April 2020 and over $100 since last October except for a few days. The stock went as high as $220 earlier this year or 4 x. this analyst's previous target. The favorable news about CTX001, including what VRTX paid to up its ownership interest from 50% to 60%, has been out for some time.
ReplyDeleteWhile some people have called CTXOO1 a cure, I would not use that word. The issue for me, as a layman, is how long will this therapy work which is still an open question IMO. The therapy has shown results in early trials for Beta-thalassemia and sickle cell anemia:
It is estimated that about 1.5% of the world's population carry β-Thalassemia and about 60,000 are symptomatic.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2893117/#:~:text=It%20has%20been%20estimated%20that,majority%20in%20the%20developing%20world.
Americans with sickle cell anemia generally range between 70K to $100K:
https://www.hematology.org/education/patients/anemia/sickle-cell-disease
So both are relatively rare. The question is whether gene editing can work for more common diseases like cancer and diabetes.
https://crisprmedicinenews.com/news/crispr-therapy-turns-a-corner-with-first-cures-in-sight/
CarT is considered a cure. Remissions are so deep that they are expected to last. But it's theory for now. Not enough years to know.
DeleteThe stock has room to grow, back to that $220. But it could take a while and dive before then. And could never happen. Hard to judge. That report seems more likely that it's higher in the trading range and Citi wants to squeeze a little more profit before selling at the top of the range.
...not to be cynical or anything
DeleteI posted a little bit ago about whether to sell SOXX. Did I accidentally post it on a different blog?
ReplyDeleteSOXX is near it's high. But if I sell to buy in lower, I'm merely trading, not locking in profits.
ReplyDeleteit's up a lot so would be a lot of tax to pay.
Land: I am not concerned about taxes that I pay, provided I am achieving my investment goals of capital generation and income generation.
DeleteI would be taking taxes into consideration if I had earned income, which I have not had in over a decade, or a pension other than Social Security.
The main issue for me is whether I should allow profitable stock positions to remain unharvested until my death whereupon the tax cost basis would be stepped up to the value on the DOD or later depending on the option chosen by my executor.
The democrats may try to get rid of that tax benefit. If it remains in existence, it does have an advantage for everyone in that no income taxes are paid on the unrealized appreciation to the stepped up cost basis, and it may even be possible to harvest a loss when a heir sells the asset at a higher price than originally bought.
While I have considered that issue, I have dismissed as something that I will take into account while I am living when dealing with stocks. I have other appreciated assets that will have significant stepped up values including many stock positions and possibly my home which is currently worth about $600K more than I have in it.
That's an interesting thought not to worry about taxes. In part, I need to stay under certain amounts to get the grants & patient assistance for the meds I'm on. Another 8-10k a year in "income" such as from cap gains, would make me ineligible.
DeleteI need to do more focus on my Roth and 401k to avoid that problem.
For SOXX it'd be paying taxes up front, on 100% increase. But I'd want to buy back in. So really, I'm looking for a smaller gain on a smaller trade... while triggering a big tax bill. If i'd bought a decent amount to begin with, it'd be no question I should sell some now...
I forgot about that ... The Will books mentioned raising the cost basis for heirs. I need to invest for myself and take that into account only when all else is equal.
Unfortunately I didn't invest enough into real estate. I house went up in value but it's still not a particularly expensive house.
The current med appears to be working. There's side effects like harder to type and write, that I'm hoping wear off (they've improved already)... but the cool part is spleen's smaller already. You just have to find the right ridiculously expensive med, with a long list of spoken very fast (in ads) impressive sounding side effects.
DeleteMore interesting is the 6K I bought of indices a few weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteAbout $242 profits so far. Could sell those, for trading.
For the moment, holding on all of it.
Looking at that huge end of day run up. Impressive.
ReplyDeleteI don't see any technicals it bounced on. The only news headline that I see is peak inflation risk worries are over.
Lots of new highs. I don't see a price to A/Decline divergence.
VIX under 20, above 15. So could move to stable vix pattern from here. I'm not betting on it.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX)
ReplyDelete$188.97 -$5.83 (-2.99%)
Volume 4,558,201
Avg. Volume 1,833,700
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VRTX?p=VRTX
VRTX looks like it remains under continuous institutional selling pressure. Rallies, no matter how small, are sold.
I bought $70 today. At this rate, it will be awhile before I hit my limit of 10 shares. I may die of old age before hitting that limit.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/can-vertex-pharmaceuticals-recover-from-its-latest/
++
Organon & Co. (OGN)
$31.81 +$1.53 (+5.05%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OGN?p=OGN
OGN was recently spun out by Merck to its shareholders. The pop today was probably attributable to JPM starting at a neutral but with a PT of $38.
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3320751&headline=OGN-Organon-initiated-with-a-Neutral-at-JPMorgan
I own a few shares and have been discussing the stock in comments.
CRSP had a down day too. I think it may be technical. It should bounce just under $120 in the short run. Institutional profit taking certainly seems like a good explanation on both, from that big run up. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go down considerably more to below that range it's in, before it gains real momentum again.
DeleteAsk doc on crsp using donor cells. Works but more toxic (meaning dangerous side effects.) Also said yes, it has benefits of about 3 weeks less wait for treatment, but there's host to graft issues. Then added a positive but "we'll get there." So it wasn't useful for investing. But he is aware of the research.
I figured out my rate of interest and divs for the last year. <1% across all my funds. It's the same for first half of this year too. That's not going to work out.
Michael Burry of the big short is sounding alarms. I ignore pundits a lot. But this raises caution thoughts, and may be even time to sell into this spot.
Any thoughts?
This article had links to others on him.
https://www.businessinsider.com/big-short-michael-burry-warns-stock-market-huge-risk-crashing-2021-2
Land: I am not thinking long term about almost all of my stock investments, but CRSP is one of the exceptions.
Deletehttps://www.tipranks.com/news/article/crispr-on-the-cutting-edge-of-gene-editing-technology/
I don't believe that anyone can realistically put a long term price target on that stock.
Ultimately, the price may end up a lot lower or higher.
The future is not predictable for this technology, including whether the side effects for certain disease indications outweigh the benefits.
Michael Burry is a smart guy, receiving an MD from Vanderbilt but did not pursue a career in Medicine after quitting his residency in neurology at the Stanford Medical Center. I would classify him as an outlier and successful investor who does not engage in Wall Street group think.
A lot of stocks are in a speculative bubble, but trying to time when prices will crash has been a futile undertaking so far.
The mostly unrealistically high expectations for future profits are based primarily on an extended continuation of extraordinarily abnormal monetary and fiscal policies, tame inflation, and extremely excessive money creation.
I haven't seen the big short. I want to sometime.
DeleteYou've described it well. The timing of burst is hard to spot. And those policies are keeping it going.
It's not as bloated across the board as it was in 2000. Also I'm pretty sure in 2008 too.
LAND: The Big Short book is excellent and I would recommend it over the movie.
Deletehttps://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Doomsday-tie-Tie/dp/039335315X
In the movie,Christian Bale plays Michael Burry:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/
Margot Robbie explains what went wrong while taking a bubble bath:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Rhs3PVAP4o
Lol! Looks like after reading the book for quality content... it'd be fun to see the movie too. That was a fun 1:39sec.
DeleteI now learned. Didn't know this started over running out of loans to offer.
Something corrupt has to be going on now, and not uncovered yet. Bitcoin, Gamestop, somthing below the surface that extends from them.
A thought is that Burry's predictions then had to do with a concrete discovery that he warned on. Current warning is of an visible bubble, not a less visible corruption "scheme."
Even after the current corruption is uncovered (if it exists), it takes a while for the market to believe it.
Market doesn't like the Fed speak, tusk tusk.
ReplyDeleteSounds like Fed is going to keep rates low, long beyond realistic. But is acknowledging what's already obvious, inflation exists. But is claiming it's not a lot, won't happen fast...
I don't think they're being realistic about inflation. And the disconnect to rates effects things in new ways that are important and not being talked about or understood yet.
I'll go on a limb. Fed/market are living in post-truth fantasy world in the same way some politics and media have entered a post-truth world.
I made a sign for my very first protest at a sign making party. "Truth Matters." That sign has even been in the NYTimes. I've kept it in my car so I'd have a sign for every rally. So far it's been a very relevant sign for every one of them since 2016.
Come to think of it the person leading that sign making party said to be careful to make something you don't mind having spread on the front page with your name. That was a good call by them. Though it wasn't front page.
My favorite photo is of that sign around a dog's neck at the first rally I created. The owner put it on, while I was busy elsewhere.
I've gone off topic. But this theme's popped up before. This reality disconnect will matter.
Land: The Fed speak does acknowledge the existence of the inflation reality, but does nothing material to address to address this potential problem.
DeleteIn the Dot Plot (figure 2), a majority of FED members (10 out of 18) now expects a FF funds rate to be at least .625% or higher in 2023.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20210616.htm
A .625% FF rate would not have any material adverse effect on either inflationary pressures or the real economy. That will not prevent the Stock Jocks from hyperventilating in response to that possible immaterial increase from zero.
The expected FF rate certainly won't change the current dynamics on an economic basis.
DeleteThe market may panic, yep.
My view is that the Fed is trying to see inflation and heating up, as temporary and nothing to worry about for the Fed.
I expect inflation will build on itself, and there is something real here. Question is when does it require more action? Enough action for the market to justifiably react?
In other words,
.625% won't pressure stocks or the economy.
But will .625% be enough considering the inflation that's arrive and will be coming?
Still, it's all a while off. Not going to have immediate effect.
An maybe the inflation will be gotten under control in some other way, which will allow Fed to keep soft policy for a long time?
Land: Going from ZIRP to a .625% FF rate in 2023 will not impede inflation but is more of a green light for inflation to gather momentum and take root. The FED is still assuming that the above the 2021 PCE inflation is a blip whose apex will hit this year at 3.4% and then trend down to 2% next year. So there are going to ignore what is happening now.
DeleteSo they are going to be proven right or wrong with that forecast. The consensus expressed today is that the FED will continue suppressing interest rates far below the inflation rate, so there is really no end in sight yet to the FED's Jihad Against the Savings Class, now in its second decade.
There was a significant pullback in commodity prices today, and those increases have fed into the recent higher inflation numbers.
Raising rates helps slow down inflation? I'm assuming, the theory is, by making money more expensive to borrow it, it slows down economic growth and with it inflation?
DeleteMaybe if growth was fueling inflation more directly. I don't get it.
Now if they're jawboning is getting commodities to slow down, that will slow down inflation.
The Fed isn't in control. They're tool of increasing rates, isn't fully available to them.
I'll have to keep reading until it all makes sense to me.
Land: The decline in commodity prices today was due to actions taken by China, which had been widely anticipated for several days:
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/commodities-from-copper-to-corn-tumble-on-china-crackdown-rising-dollar.html
It took a 20+% FF rate in 1980 to snuff out problematic inflation that started to build in the late 1960s.
A rise in the FF rate from ZIRP to .625% at some point in 2023 is tantamount to letting inflation run its course without any FED intervention.
Ah from China's actions. Anticipated but not acted on until now? Market's off from it's usual pre-emptive self.
DeleteThe current rotation doesn't seem natural. Into tech growth, out of long term value DIA, and small cap.
If the 20%FF is 2% more than inflation, I'd still be better off than now - going forward. (For the last year i've seen stock growth.) Back then the thing to invest in were those little self-sticking item price tags.
The Fed's new inflation forecast did provide a lift for regional bank stocks whose earnings are significantly impacted by their net interest margins.
ReplyDeleteSPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
$69.37 +$1.01 (+1.48%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KRE/?p=KRE
That response is psychological rather than fact based since the minor change in longer term interest rates today would have no material impact on net interest margins. The ten year treasury yield increased 6 basis points to close at 1.57%:
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
Hope continues to spring eternal that the long era of CB induced NIM compression/suppression will end.
There was some spillover impact on other spread business including BDCs and life insurance companies.
BDC earnings can rise with increases in short term rates since their floating rate loans pay spreads to short term rates, though many loans will have an interest rate floor rate (e.g. 1%) that would still be higher than the short term rate after a relatively small increase. So a 1/2 bump in the FF rate in 2023 from zero bound will not impact the interest received on those loans when and if that actually happened.
VanEck Vectors BDC Income ETF (BIZD)
$17.53 +$0.10 (+0.57%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIZD/?p=BIZD
Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU)
$105.16 +$0.27 (+0.26%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRU?p=PRU&.tsrc=fin-srch
At least those securities rose in price on a day the S & P fell 500 decline -.54%.
The Bond Ghouls have reconsidered their initial opinion regarding the FED's statements yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThe 10 year treasury gained 6 basis points in yield yesterday and is currently down almost 8 basis points to 1.50%.
The conclusion reached is that the FED will continue to suppress interest rates far below the inflation rate, notwithstanding the hot inflation numbers. A .625% FF rate in 2023 is equivalent to doing nothing about the inflation trend.
That opinion change is resulting in a significant decline in regional bank stocks.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
$66.13 -3.25 -4.69%
Last Updated: Jun 17, 2021 at 2:26 p.m. EDT
In some inconsistent thinking, the USD posted gains yesterday in anticipation of higher rates and is up today as interest rates decline.
The DXY index was at 90.55 when the FED released its Dot Plot yesterday, and is now at 91.85. A higher number indicates USD strength against a basket of 6 foreign currencies weighted in the EURO.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
91.85 +0.72 +0.79%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
Gold was hit yesterday as interest rates rose and is getting smacked down as interest rates fall.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
$166.74 -4.37 -2.55%
Last Updated: Jun 17, 2021 at 2:32 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gld?mod=over_search
The GLD closed at $174.05 on Wednesday and at $171.11 yesterday after the FED meeting. Volume has accelerated substantially:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD/history?p=GLD
Growth stocks are outperforming value which has generally been the case when the ten year treasury yield is declining, even though the fluctuations up and down are meaningless as a practical matter.
UNM took a big hit. >7% too. As part of the bank stocks & insurances.
DeleteI think the market's right that fed will keep rates down.
I agree that these small moves are being received in an exaggerated way by the market on bank stocks & related.
But I see reasons to worry here.
The VIX gapped up yesterday. I just noticed. So there's futures bets being bought.
19 days below $ 20 for VIX.
ReplyDelete2nd long strength below 20.
But I'm not counting it until it's close to 3 months under.
Gapped down today in SPY just below 50 DMA.
But 200DMA that matters is a distance down at 380 and no where near the trendline. So market could work it's way there, but that'd be quite a trip, 10% down. So doesn't look like a bear crash is anytime soon. It's still in the same upward channel.
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SPY
Cramer's saying tech's making a comeback because it's the place to be if economy slows. I don't know why that would be. I'm starting to wonder if covid variant worries are around.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/06/bamprsca-bamprtca-bxmx-cvx-fidi-irm.html