Economy:
Inflation: The housing market is on fire. The Fed keeps adding gasoline
Key inflation indicator posts biggest year-over-year gain in nearly three decades This article is referring to the personal consumption expenditure ("PCE") price index that the FED prefers over the CPI index. The PCE price number is released monthly as part of the Personal Income and Outlays report, which was released earlier today. Personal Income and Outlays, May 2021 The annual PCE price increase through May 2021 was reported at +3.9% with the core PCE price index rising 3.4%.
WHO says the Covid Delta variant is the fastest and fittest and will 'pick off' most vulnerable
Architecture billings continue historic rebound - AIA (a leading indicator for construction)
New home sales for May were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 769K, down from the revised April annual rate of 817K, but 9.2% above the May 2020 estimate. Census Report.pdf
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Markets and Market Commentary:
10 Promising Stocks to Consider | Morningstar (of the stocks mentioned, I currently own BMRN, CRM, INCY, and VRTX.)
10% to 20% correction may be underway due to inflation: Mark Zandi
As Lumber Prices Fall, the Threat of Inflation Loses Its Bite - The New York Times For a commodity, the cure for a high price is the high price as demand wanes and supply continues to ramp up.
3 Dividend Ideas to Protect Your Portfolio Against Inflation | Barron's Of the stocks mentioned in that article, I currently own ABBV, BMY CVX, KMB, MMM, PFE, and PRU.
3 Things Investors Can Learn From Warren Buffett | Morningstar
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+++
Rudy Giuliani skips Dominion, Powell, MyPillow-Lindell hearing after law license suspended; Rudy Giuliani is suspended from practicing law due to false statements about the election
How the Republican States Are Expanding Their Power Over Elections - The New York Times
PolitiFact | Trump lost. Yet the 2020 election falsehoods live on in Arizona
Michigan Republicans Debunk Voter Fraud Claims in Unsparing Report - The New York Times ("The 55-page report, produced by a Michigan State Senate committee of three Republicans and one Democrat, is a systematic rebuttal to an array of false claims about the election from supporters of former President Donald J. Trump.")
Conservative Outlets Advance Unfounded Theory About Capitol Attack - FactCheck.org It is important to quit calling these people conservatives.
‘Italygate’ election conspiracy theory was pushed by two firms led by a woman who also falsely claimed a $30 million mansion was hers - The Washington Post This article exposes the propagators of the conspiracy theory that an Italian defense contractor and the CIA had conspired to change Trump votes via satellite. Trump partisans have been advancing this claim including "Maria Strollo Zack, a Republican operative from Georgia", the woman who falsely claimed that she owned the $30M mansion; Daniele Capezzone, known as the Italian Sean Hannity; and a self-described intelligence expert who claims to be a former CIA operative.
Leader of Michigan’s Republican Party Ron Weiser calls top Democratic women ‘witches’ who should be "ready for the burning at the stake"Chicago Tribune; Trump's influence on Republicans faces key test in Michigan He "joked" about assassinating two Republican congressmen who voted to impeach Trump. GOP chair Weiser rebuffs attacks on the assassination, 'three witches' quips; Watch: Ron Weiser calls Michigan leaders 'three witches;' quips about the assassination of colleagues Weiser said he would not be "canceled". Has Ron Weiser been ‘canceled’?
The Co-Chair of Michigan's Republican party, Meshawn Maddock, suggested that Michigan needs to succeed from the U.S., GOP co-chair Maddock suggests Michigan should secede from U.S. | News Hits Her husband, Matt Maddock (R), introduced legislation requiring fact-checkers to register with the state and to post a bond of $1M. If someone does not like the fact check, they can file a civil action against the fact-checker to claim that $1M bond and be entitled to treble damages and attorney fees upon winning the lawsuit. 2021-HIB-4813.pdf Mr. Maddock is only attempting to preserve the conservative values embodied in the First Amendment by making it cost-prohibitive for anyone to challenge Republican reality creations.
Devin Nunes (R-CA) Family Farm Workers Must Produce Citizenship Documents
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1. Pared CVA-Sold 102 at $17.51:
Quote: Covanta Holding Corp.
Total Ash Processing - Covanta
Home | Covanta Environmental Solutions
Profit Snapshot: +$276.29 (6/10/21 sale only)
New AC per share after pare = $8.49 (17+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 6/10/21 after pare |
I am probably done paring this position.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.08 per share
The dividend was slashed from $.25 per share effective for the 2020 third-quarter payment. The stock was originally purchased primarily for the $1 per annual dividend payout. The reduction to a $.32 per share annual payout consequently removed the primary reason for owning the stock.
Dividend reinvestment has been turned off.
Yield at new AC of $8.49 = 3.77%
SEC Filed Earnings Earnings Call Slides
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/21 I discussed that report in Item # 3.K.
1 Year Chart as of 6/11/21: The uptrend in price started on 10/30/2020 after closing at $7.62 on 10/29/20, with another gap breaking higher on 6/9/21.
The 2020 third-quarter earnings report was released after the close on 10/29/20: SEC Filed Press Release
10 Year Chart: Indicates that a trading strategy is needed to produce adequate total returns. A long term hold started with purchases anywhere near the current price would have led to substantial subpar returns compared to index ETFs:
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 3.K. Pared CVA in Fidelity Account-Sold 13+ at $15.07 (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.05); Item # 1.A. Eliminated CVA in Schwab Account-Sold 70 at $12.76 and Item #1.B. Eliminated CVA in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 44+ at $13.19 (12/19/20 Posts)(profit snapshots = $176.67)
CVA has been a problem child, though trading and averaging down has produced an overall satisfactory total return given my limited expectations going into the investment. The realized gain is currently at $547.01 with an unrealized gain on the lowest cost remaining shares. Any future purchases will require consideration only when and if they can be made at prices below my current AC per share.
54 ETFs with Covanta Holding Corporation (CVA) exposure | ETF.com
2. Small Ball:
A. DNNGY-Bought 5 DNNGY at $46.2 and Sold 5 at $47.36:
Bought 5 at $46.2:
Sold 5 at $47.36:
Quotes:
USD: Oersted A/S ADR (pink sheet exchange)
DKK: Oersted A/S (Denmark: OMX)
Renewable Energy Solutions to Fight Climate Change | Ørsted
Green Energy Solutions | Ørsted
I changed my mind quickly on this stock. I am still interested in starting a position but will need a lower starting price.
I reevaluated the cost risk associated with repairing critical cables at 10 of its offshore wind farms. The problem which will be expensive to fix is that underwater rocks are scrapping against the cables. Earnings were hit in the last quarter due to warranty costs associated with that problem and lower wind speeds. Wind Power Giant Ørsted Has a Major Undersea Headache. Will It Hurt the Stock? | Barron's (4/30/21 article)(early assessment of the financial cost to fix the cable problem was then at DKK3B. DKK to USD -Danish Krone to US Dollars (about US$489M)
This article was published the day after I sold my position. Ørsted Is Under Pressure. Why Now Is the Perfect Time To Buy the Green Stock. | Barron's The article references a recommendation made by a UBS analyst.
Profit Snapshot: +$5.79
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): Interim financial report Q1 2021.PDF
B. Pared PRU-Sold 2 at $108.34- Vanguard Taxable:
Quote: Prudential Financial Inc.
Position Before Pare this account: 7 shares
Sold 2 of the highest-cost lot bought on 8/4/20 at $63.82.
Profit Snapshot: +$89.04
New AC per share this account: $63.19
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.15 per share ($4.6 annually), last raised from $1.10 effective for the 2021 first-quarter payment.
Prudential Financial, Inc. - Stock Information - Dividends
Yield at AC this account = 7.28%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU) Announces First Quarter 2021 Results
GAAP E.P.S. = $6.98
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $4.11
Non-GAAP Consensus E.P.S. = $2.763 per Fidelity
"Book value per Common share of $145.05 versus $152.45 per share for the year-ago; adjusted book value per Common share of $100.49 versus $99.71 per share for the year-ago."
C. Started HZO-Bought 5 at $47:
Quote: MarineMax Inc.
HZO is the "largest recreational boat and yacht retailer in the United States", with "77 retail locations in Alabama, California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Washington and Wisconsin". The company sells "new and used recreational boats, including pleasure and fishing boats, with a focus on premium brands in each segment. We also sell related marine products, including engines, trailers, parts, and accessories" and provides "repair, maintenance, and slip and storage services; we arrange related boat financing, insurance, and extended service contracts."
Website: New, Used Boats for Sale | Boat Dealerships, Marinas | MarineMax
HZO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 6/18/21, average E.P.S. estimate for 2021 was $5.56; $5.45 for 2022; and $5.25 for 2023, with 2020 actual at $2.66).
HZO Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 9/30/20 (retail location list starts at page 28)
5 Year Historical:
 |
| Page 33 Annual Report |
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 3/31/21): MarineMax Reports Record Fiscal 2021 Second Quarter Results
"Revenue increased 70%, or over $214 million, to $523.1 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2021 from $308.5 million in the comparable period last year. Same-store sales grew over 45% on top of a 1% increase in the comparable quarter last year. The growth was driven by an increase in comparable new units sold driven by the strong demand for boating. The Company’s significant geographic and product diversification and the effective utilization of its digital platform have driven growth over the past several years. These factors, along with increased industry demand, resulted in net income and earnings per diluted share rising more than sevenfold to $38.9 million and $1.69, respectively. This compares to net income of $5.1 million and earnings per diluted share of $0.23 in the comparable period last year."
Updated 2021 Guidance: "Based on current business conditions, retail trends and other factors, the Company is raising its fiscal year 2021 guidance for earnings per diluted share to the range of $5.50 to $5.65, which is increased from its previously provided guidance of $4.00 to $4.20 per diluted share. This compares to a non-GAAP adjusted, but fully taxed, earnings per diluted share of $3.42 in fiscal 2020."
D. Started CTT-Bought 10 at $11.56:
Quote CatchMark Timber Trust Inc. - A Timber REIT
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
 |
| Current Timberland Assets as of 3/31/21 at p. 13 |
2020 Annual Report
Dividend: Quarterly at $.135 per share ($.54 annually), last raised from $.125 effective for the 2016 4th quarter payment.
Yield at $11.56 = 4.67%
Last Ex-Dividend: 5/27/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
 |
| 10-Q, page 18 |
Purchase Restriction: Average down only, increasing the dollar expenditures in the $8 to $10 range. I am concerned about the debt level taking into account the commodity nature of this REIT's business.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
The REIT currently has a .21% in the Invesco MSCI Global Timber ETF (CUT) and a 1.07% weighting in the iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF (WOOD). I own 2 shares of both ETFs as Placeholders. I briefly discuss the WOOD purchase in Item # 1.O.
E. Pared GNL Again in Fidelity Taxable-Sold Highest Cost 10+ Shares at $19.91:
I sold all remaining shares in this account that had a tax cost basis of over $17 per share.
Quote: Global Net Lease Inc.
GNL SEC Filings; 2020 Annual Report (list of properties starts at p. 33)
GNL Website: Overview | GNL
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.I. Added to GNL-Bought 5 at $16.9 (1/23/21 Post); Item # 1.E. Bought 1 GNL at $13.19 and 1 at $12.61 (5/23/20 Post); Item # 4.A. Added 5 GNL at $17.65; 5 at $16.87, 5 at $16.3; 5 at $14.6; 5 at $14; 10 at $13.5; 5 at $12.94; 2 at $12.66; 2 at $12.1; 2 at $11; 1 at 10.1; 4 at $11.48 and 2 at $10.8 (4/4/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $17.61 (6/7/21 sale only)
New Average cost per share this account: $14.21 (97+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 6/7/21 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share
Yield at New AC = 11.26%
I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 1.J. Pared GNL in Fidelity Taxable- Sold 20 GNL at $19.49 (5/16/21 Post)
Other sell discussions: Item # 1.A. Pared GNL-Sold 20 at $19.1 (3/20/21 Post); Item # 1.E. Sold 10 GNL at $21.51 (2/19/20 Post); Item # 2.B. Pared GNL-Sold Highest Cost 50 Shares at $20.05 (12/11/19 Post)
F. Started OGN as a Placeholder-Bought 2 at $31.2; 1 at $29.9; 1 at $29.2; 1 at $29.7; 3 at 28.7; 2 at $28.4; :
Quote: Organon & Co.
Average Cost Per Share = $29.42 (12 shares)
Product Revenues 1st Quarter 2020 and 2021:
A number of those drugs have lost patent exclusivity and are referred to as "Established Brands" in the preceding snapshot. OGN stated in its last 10-Q filing that those compounds as "generally" beyond "market exclusivity". The primary drug which still has patent protection is Nexplanon, a contraceptive that produced $680M in revenues last year (p.59) and $183M in the 2021 first quarter.
OGN also has a biosimilar business. One of those compounds, "Hadlima", is a biosimilar for Humira:
 |
OGN was recently spun out of Merck. Merck Announces Completion of Organon & Co. Spinoff As part of that arrangement, MRK received $9B, funded by debt that was assumed by OGN: "During the second quarter of 2021, Merck issued an aggregate of $
OGN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (As of 6/19/21, the average estimate is for $5.98 in 2021; $6.11 in 2022; and $6.35 in 2023.
I discussed the first 2 share purchase in a 6/7/21 comment.
My MRK tax cost basis was revised down about $3.5+ per share to account for the Organon spinoff. This is a snapshot of the revised tax cost numbers for the 7 MRK shares owned in my Vanguard taxable account:
The lot with the $74.44 revised tax cost basis was bought at $78.12. Item # 1.I.
Since I did not own 10 MRK shares in that account, I received a $20.7 cash payment for my allotment of a fractional Organon share.
Organon Stock: This Former Merck Company Could Have Big Potential. | Barron's In March 2021, Merck predicted that OGN would generate between $6.1B to $6.4B in revenues this year.
OGN Stock: Merck Spinoff Organon Will Do Well Over Time | InvestorPlace
Merck Investor Presentation on Organon.pdf
Dividend: OGN plans to pay a dividend but has not yet declared one.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): 10-Q This report reflects OGN's operations prior to its separation from Merck and its assumption of $9B in debt. The report consequently does not reflect the interest payments for that new debt.
This is a summary of the outstanding debt as of 3/31/21:
Organon Announces Proposed Senior Notes Offering (4/6/21)
E.P.S. = $1.58 includes $.02 from discontinued operations
Revenues: $1.506B
Net Income from continuing operations = $395M
The company attributes the Y-O-Y decline in profits and revenues to the pandemic.
G. Bought 5 VABK at $32.6:
This is a new name for me.
Quote: Virginia National Bankshares Corp.
Corporate Profile | Virginia National Bankshares Corporation
Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share
Virginia National Bankshares Corporation Announces Cash Dividend
As far as I can tell, this was the first cash dividend paid by VABK. There have been stock dividends paid in the past.
Last Ex-Dividend: 6/10/21
Yield at $32.6 = 3.68%
Shortly before buying this 5 share lot, I was curious about what had happened to Fauquier Bankshares, which I had owned in the past, and discovered that VABK has acquired it. Virginia National Bankshares Corporation Completes Merger (4/1/21) I then looked at VABK and liked it better than Fauquier so I took a starter-type position.
The last financial report for VABK does not include Fauquier's operations. As of 3/31/21, "Fauquier had total assets of $911.3 million, net loans of $616.4 million and total deposits of $817.5 million." SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
2021 1st Quarter Results:
E.P.S. = $.55
NIM = 2.83%, down from 3.2% in the 2020 first quarter
Diluted Shares Outstanding: 2.727+M
NPA Ratio: .04%
NPL Ratio: 0% (Fauquier had issues relating to NPLs)
Charge Off Ratio: .12%
Total Risk-Based Capital Ratio: 15.49%
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio: 77.23%
Tangible Book Value Per Share = $29.07 (excludes $.26 per share in intangible assets)
"As of March 31, 2021, $57.5 million in loan balances, or 97.4% of the total loan deferments approved, have returned to normal payment schedules and are now current, leaving a remaining balance of deferments of $1.5 million. Of this remaining balance, $1.2 million, or 77.3%, are 100% government-guaranteed loans for which the deferrals were approved by the United States Department of Agriculture; and $349 thousand, or 22.7%, are student loans, which are private student loans not subject to potential federal forgiveness."
Excluding merger-related expenses, ROA and ROE were .71% and 7.73%, both being too low and meaningful negatives IMO.
H. Pared NMFC in Fidelity Account-Sold All Fractional Shares purchased with dividends at $13.69:
Quote: New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC)- externally managed BDC
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/21 (summary of investments starts at page 7)
5 Year Financials: Page 61
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.M Added to NMFC-Bought 5 at $9.48 (11/7/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$13.74
New Average Cost per share this account = $8.33 (28 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 6/9/21 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 (regular only), reduced from $.34 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment.
Yield at $8.33 AC = 14.41%
Last Ex-Dividend: 6/15/21
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
03/31/21: $12.85
12/31/20: $12.62
12/31/19: $13.26
12/31/18: $13.22
12/31/17: $13.63
12/31/16: $13.46
12/31/15: $13.08
12/31/14: $13.83
12/31/13: $14.38
12/31/12: $14.06
IPO May 2011-Prospectus: Public Offering Price at $13.75 (all expenses including the sales load paid by the management company)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
NII per share = $.30
Sell Discussions: Item # 3.G. Pared NMFC in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 20 at $12.27 (1/1/21 Post); Item # 2 Eliminated NMFC-Sold 102+ at $14.2 (1/25/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Sold 50 NMFC at $13.95 (1/15/20 Post); Item # 1.B. Eliminated NMFC-Sold 60 at $13.96 and 50 at $13.94 (2/9/19 Post); Item # 1 A. Sold 50 NMFC at $14.06 (8/19/18 Post); Item # 1 Sold Remaining 50 Shares of NMFC at $14.63 (11/1/14 Post); Sold 100 of 150 NMFC at $14.4773 (10/23/14 Post); Item # 8 Sold Highest Cost NMFC Lot at $15.37 (9/14/2014 Post)
NMFC Realized Gains to Date: $262.85 ($249.11 in prior trades)
Goal: Total return in excess of the dividend payments.
I. Bought 5 AMOM at $35.48 as a Placeholder:
Quote: QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF Overview
Sponsor's Website: QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF Summary
"Optimized and actively managed by AI technology, Qraft AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF seeks to invest in U.S. large cap momentum stocks by capitalizing on the movement of existing market trends."
AI is only as good as the inputs used to successfully capture momentum trends. I would define success as beating the after-tax returns of a low-cost S & P 500 ETF.
Compare SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Performance with QRAFT AI-Enhanced US Large Cap Mmntm ETF (AMOM) Performance
Expense Ratio: .75%
A similar ETF, Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF (SPMO), has a .13% expense ratio but has underperformed AMOM since March 2020 as shown in a comparison chart at the sponsor's website.
Dividends: Semi-annually
Short-term trading last year led to a $7.7589 per share short-term capital gain. That is most tax-inefficient.
Top 10 Holdings (may not reflect current holdings and weightings):
J. Pared OPI Fidelity Taxable-Sold All Fractional shares bought with dividends:
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.D. Bought 5 OPI at $20.25, 2 at $18.95; 3 at $17.9 (11/13/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $2.29 (.336 share)
Average cost after the pare this account: $19.29 (10 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 6/10/21 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.55 per share ($2.2 annually)
Yield at $19.29 = 11.4%
Last Ex-Dividend: 4/23/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Supplementals
K. Eliminated BAM-Sold 7 at $49.43:
Quote: Brookfield Asset Management Inc. Cl A (BAM)
BAM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investor Relations: Brookfield Asset Management Inc
BAM SEC Filings (foreign issuer SEC forms)
2020 Annual Report (management discussion)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.J. Added 1 BAM at $30.2- Vanguard Taxable ( ); Item # 4.G. Restarted BAM-Bought 5 at $32.21; 1 at $31.78 (8/29/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$122.54
Dividend: Inconsequential at $.13 per share, paid quarterly
Distribution History – Brookfield Asset Management Inc
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): Brookfield reports $6.4 billion of Investment Gains in First Quarter on $13 billion of Asset Sales
L. Bought 10 HTBK at $11.52:
This is a new name for me.
Quote: Heritage Commerce Corp.
HTBK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
5 Year Financials:
 |
| Page 63 |
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21) SEC Filed Press Release
E.P.S. = $.19
NIM: 3.22% down 103 basis points from the 2020 1st quarter "primarily due to declines in the average yields on loans, investment securities, and overnight funds, partially offset by a decline in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities and higher interest income and fees on PPP loans. The FTE net interest margin increased seven basis points for the first quarter of 2021 from 3.15% for the fourth quarter of 2020."
Efficiency Ratio: 62.38%
NPA Ratio= .11%
Coverage Ratio: 791.99%
Loan to deposit ratio: 63.21%
$1.4M in net recovery from previously established loan loss reserves.
Capital ratios are currently good:
 |
| Page 66 10-Q |
M. Sold 1 IBM at $151.33:
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 6/11/21 after pare |
The AC was reduced from $108.07.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) is one of the gene editing companies that I referenced in earlier comments. This announcement was made earlier today:
ReplyDelete"Intellia and Regeneron Announce Landmark Clinical Data Showing Deep Reduction in Disease-Causing Protein After Single Infusion of NTLA-2001, an Investigational CRISPR Therapy for Transthyretin (ATTR) Amyloidosis"
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/06/26/2253514/0/en/Intellia-and-Regeneron-Announce-Landmark-Clinical-Data-Showing-Deep-Reduction-in-Disease-Causing-Protein-After-Single-Infusion-of-NTLA-2001-an-Investigational-CRISPR-Therapy-for-Tr.html
This is apparently the first clinical trial report of gene editing inside the body. The patients showed as good or better improvements in their inherited liver disorder than what was achievable with drugs. There was no apparent yet safety concerns. Both PFE and ALNY have drugs that make the misfolded ATTR proteins less harmful but do not stop the liver from creating them.
Impressive. Then they'll open high on Monday. All of the family of stocks are likely to.
DeleteIt's exciting stuff for patients too. Like penicillin but harder to develop fully.
Good to know!!!
Pre-Market Gene Editing Stocks as of 6:20 CDT:
ReplyDeleteIntellia Therapeutics Inc
139.25 +$50.42 +56.76%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ntla?mod=over_search
CRISPR Therapeutics AG
$163.29 +$20.77 +14.57%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/crsp?mod=over_search
Editas Medicine Inc.
$49.20 +$7.32 +17.48%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/edit?mod=over_search
Pre-market prices may not hold during regular hours.
I would say that the trial results released on Saturday by Intellia is "proof of concept", or close to it, that gene editing can work. So it is not surprising that the market would take the other companies up as well.
Impressive. Question will be when to buy in.
DeleteGood call that the pre-hours rise, backed off some. Notably in the related competing stocks.
DeleteLand: CRSP is holding up better than EDIT which I have trimmed, putting the proceeds into REGN.
DeleteRegeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN)
$544.60 -$5.95 -1.08%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/regn?mod=over_search
I will not have meaningful positions in these non-dividend paying stocks.
If I had bought 100 CRSP rather than $100 when the price went below $100, I would almost have enough profit to pay for that new unit.
See discussion in June 6, 2021 Post at Item #3.L.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/06/amcr-bmrn-bmy-cgbd-csco-fcx-ffhprgca.html
And Item # 2.J. May 23, 2021 Post
Added to CRSP in Fidelity Taxable-Multiple $50 buys at $122.8; $118.5; $114.5; $109; $108; $102.5; $100.8; $99.8; $96.5:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/05/codx-crsp-dea-duk-gnom-holx-kr-mo-orkly.html
I finally received a response from Fidelity about its failure to correct credit the make whole payments made by ESSEX when it redeemed early its 1/15/23 bonds. Fidelity received those payments on 6/16/21 and has not yet credited them to the accounts that I manage for a family member.
ReplyDeleteThe response was not that the amount received would be properly credited but that I needed to contact the bond trading department who of course would not be helpful since they have nothing to do with the proper crediting of payments received by Fidelity.
You have to watch these brokers carefully. I have been around long enough and seen too much to trust them to do what is right and proper.
That is frustrating.
DeleteI'm been trying to remember. I'm pretty sure Fidelity was the one that offered free trades if you kept a certain size balance before the current free trades movement.
I tried to set up with them. I could not get straight answers to a list of basic questions I had. It got the the point that I got a gaslighting set of replies from the most local office, more than once. It was bizarre and I never set up. They didn't want my money if I wanted to be very clear what the fees and rewards would be.
So if I'm remembering correctly, this is not a total surprise.
Land: After I sent a very forceful email to Fidelity this morning, the firm decided to credit the make whole payments late tonight that were made by Essex on 6/16. The total make whole payment was $325.95 for 7 bonds. That is in addition to the $7K principal amount and the accrued and unpaid interest.
DeleteFidelity offers from time to time a few hundred bonus to entice people to join. For for $326 they've done the opposite of positive advertising and enticement. What types of magic words are forceful enough to get action?
DeleteThe ETF GNOM, which I own and have discussed previously, has positions in CRSP, EDIT and NTLA.
ReplyDeleteGlobal X Genomics & Biotechnology ETF (GNOM)
$24.62 +$0.65 (+2.71%)
As of 10:40AM EDT.
It is up today but is being held back by other holdings, including Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) which is currently down 6.74%. I mentioned earlier that ALNY has a drug that treats the same disease that is the subject of NTLA's gene editing therapy.
GNOM Sponsor:
https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/gnom/
New Senior Investment Group Inc. (SNR)
ReplyDelete$8.96 $2.05 +29.67%
Last Updated: Jun 28, 2021 at 11:49 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/snr?mod=over_search
I own some SNR shares but am not sure how many since the positions are scattered. I had some early success in trading SNR but was caught holding some shares when its troubles broke loose.
SNR is being acquired by Ventas (VTR) in an all stock transaction.
"Under the terms of the agreement, New Senior shareholders will receive 0.1561 shares of newly issued Ventas stock per share of New Senior common stock."
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210628005482/en/
Ventas Inc.
$57.74 -$0.57 -0.98%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vtr?mod=over_search
+++
ETSY is up today on news that it is acquiring a company based in Brazil.
Etsy Inc.
$194.69 +$10.01 +5.42%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/etsy?mod=over_search
Press Release:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-acquire-elo7-brazil-based-marketplace-for-unique-handmade-items-301320697.html
I have noted a slight movement back into the COVID trade stocks today.
ReplyDeleteThose stocks include COVID testing companies, packaged food companies and Clorox.
As of 2:25 CDT
Quidel Corp. (QDEL)
$126.42 $7.31 +6.14%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/qdel?mod=over_search
Hologic Inc.(HOLX)
$67.55 +$1.66 +2.52%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/holx?mod=over_search
Clorox Co. (CLX)
$179.35 +$2.70 +1.53%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/clx?mod=over_search
General Mills Inc. (GIS)
$60.59 +$0.95 +1.60%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gis?mod=over_search
I own those stocks, though I have not discussed except in a comment QDEL. I pared my QDEL position a few minutes ago.
You've talked about GIS and CLX. Good ideas.
DeleteWalmart's not skyrocketing. It was a covid stock in 2020.
I'm thinking initially $1000 in the gene editing. But if there are good (better than now) buying opportunities, up to 10k. So far I have none in, so I'm behind.
Would have been nice if you happened to buy enough to pay for the a/c. May it pay in the future.
I am enjoying my working a/c today. Someplace over 90 degrees. Waited till near sunset to get exercise, and it was still toasty. I went around a corner and almost ran into 3 little foxes (I assume young'ns.) Two had already started running. The third realized he was supposed to be spooked, and started barking and looking at me, as he ran after them.
Land: For the gene editing companies, I would note that many of the ongoing trials are for rare diseases where one!! infusion may cure the disease. That issue reminds me of Gilead and its Hepatitis C drug which at least had far more patients needing a cure than the rare diseases that are the subject of most gene editing trials.
DeleteThe big money is made when an expensive drug has to be taken daily forever by millions (e.g. Lipitor for cholesterol)
CRSP is at least moving into trials for more common diseases including cancer and diabetes.
Diabetes:
http://www.crisprtx.com/programs/regenerative-medicine
Cancer: Linked previously in a comment
http://www.crisprtx.com/programs/immuno-oncology
Land: Both GIS and CLX are disfavored by the Stock Jocks now. It is not clear what spooked the Stock Jocks yesterday into bidding up the Covid plays, particularly the Covid testing companies.
DeleteI have a more favorable opinion about GIS than the analysts. I like the move into pet products starting with the Blue Buffalo acquisition.
https://bluebuffalo.com/
And the recent agreement to acquire Tyson Foods pet treat business for $1.2B in cash:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210514005215/en/
There is increasing concern about Covid variants emerging with the "Delta" variant currently being the primary worry event.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-dangerous-is-the-delta-variant-and-will-it-cause-a-covid-surge-in-the-u-s/
I mentioned the N.C. State baseball team in a prior comment. Last weekend, 8 people associated with that team tested positive. So the virus is still spreading among those who refused to be vaccinated. There are low vaccination rates in several states particularly those with large majorities of republican voters.
Good point, curing isn't ongoing treatment. But as soon as it's seen as working on more difficult problems like cancer, it's a buyout candidate with much excitement.
DeleteThe real challenge will be a method developed that's easy to modify for different cancers and conditions.
---
8 people. Well then. That's really, not a good thing.
I want to remember to buy cruiselines that are pulling back due to reality. Two test positive on cruise. (Did they ever figure out if the testing is accurate?)
https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/2-passengers-on-first-100-vaccinated-north-american-cruise-test-positive-for-covid-19/
Also I wonder of the ticket selling companies that sell sporting tickets are bid up yet.
----
I have yet to understand why div paying stocks are not all the rage. They're a more stable way to replace bonds.... then high tech growth for more conservative portfolios.
Imagine curing type one diabetes. This treatment connect can change the world.
DeleteWe will have an overpopulation problem popping up. But we can worry about it, if we survive climate change.
Market's rotating again back into tech growth. Looks like the market bounced off VIX 15. ...whether coincidental or programmed into the HFT algorithms.
ReplyDeleteThe big banks recently passed the FED's stress test which at least gives them the option of raising their dividends.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/federal-reserve-gives-us-banks-a-thumbs-up-as-all-23-lenders-easily-pass-2021-stress-test.html
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and J.P. Morgan raised their dividends.
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-banks-capital/update-1-morgan-stanley-jpmorgan-bank-of-america-hike-shareholder-payouts-idUSL3N2OA49D
MS doubled its quarterly payout to $.70 per share.
BAC increased its dividend 17% to $.21.
JPM's increase was $.10 per share to $1.
I own those stocks but am far more concentrated in smaller financial institutions.
The First Bancorp(FNLC), a small bank based in Maine, raised it quarterly dividend to $.32, up from $.31.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210624005941/en/
Based on my AC of $19.98, that raise increases my dividend yield to 6.41%.
++
Vanderbilt's baseball team is the defending NCAA college champion and will soon start playing the best 2 out of 3 tonight for the title again. I mention this since Vandy would probably been defeated by North Carolina State who had to forfeit because of the NCAA's Covid protocols. Most of the N.C. State team had to sit out the first game which Vandy struggled to win 3 to 1. Several of their players tested positive for Covid and the team was only able to field 9 positions players and 4 pitchers. One of the pitchers had to play first base. Only non-vaccinated players are tested under NCAA rules and their coach refused to require them to be vaccinated, claiming in true Trumpster fashion that it was political. So now many N.C. State fans are complaining, not because their team failed to receive vaccinations, had to be tested under the existing NCAA rules and tested positive, but because the NCAA was being ridiculous in promulgating its Covid protocols.
I never chased the banks well. I have small amounts of KRE, JPM, and PBCT. All great buys, but way too small of amounts.
DeleteThey were new names to me. I'll be more comfortable the next opportunity. And maybe here or soon will still be it.
---
My parents sold their rental house in Florida. My dad feels like the florida housing market is set to burst.
He tends to good timing, without really being able to say why. Something about people moving to drier heat instead of kooky Florida. Rates going up (we talked and he's not very aware of Fed's abilities to keep them down) so rates up, loans & buying will go down. Doubled the house value; time to not be a pig and take the money and run. He's a Trump-liker (or was) but Florida's instability might have gotten his attention. Hurricane repairs last year & before. (It's a few months ago before the current building collapse.)
I was thinking it's good have had something with 5% income in rent after management company fees. That's not replaceable. But maybe he's got an instinct going.
Meanwhile he can't imagine people making up fake vaccine cards to enter planes and cruises. Or why FL legislator made it illegal for cruise to require vaccine evidence & he wondered why (making it political one sided seemed like an odd idea to him.) How can someone survive the Holocaust, and still believe people wouldn't lie so easily?
I hope the Delta variant isn't what it's cracked up to be. Cause those who need vaccines seem to be lost causes. I'd be fine with the natural selection if doctors and nurses didn't have to care for them.
NC's team doesn't sound like it's doing well. It's fans don't sound any cognitively better.
I suspect that the MEME/Reddit crowd may have become meaningfully involved in the gene editing stocks.
ReplyDeleteAs of 10:50 CDT:
Intellia Therapeutics, Inc.(NTLA)
$188.32 +$36.71 (+24.21%)
Day's Range 150.52 - 202.73
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NTLA?p=NTLA&.tsrc=fin-srch
CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP)
$164.12 +$13.63 (+9.06%)
Day's Range 146.70 - 168.19
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRSP/?p=CRSP
Editas Medicine, Inc. (EDIT)
$55.12 +$9.02 (+19.57%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EDIT/?p=EDIT
Very interesting. Grrr on missing out. But it's not a straight line up. I'll wait.
DeleteGNOM in this case isn't a way to bet on this technology. It's up 2.5%
VIX under 20 for several weeks now again.
Land: I am not aware of a gene editing stock ETF, though I would expect one to appear before year end.
DeleteGNOM currently has a larger weighting than the only other ETF that has a significant overall position which is ARKG.
https://etfdb.com/etf/ARKG/#holdings
Both of those ETFs have a more diversified focus and consequently are not a way to play gene editing compared to owning the individual stocks. But, on the other hand, GNOM is doing well since I bought some shares. Last year it was up 51.42%:
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/gnom/performance
That's a nice return. Not so sure I want to buy here.
DeleteBut a lot of 50% returns have gone to 100% in the last year. The no-place-else coupled with gambling rallies.
As of their last shareholder reports, several major biotech mutual funds barely owned the gene editing stocks that I have been discussing here.
ReplyDeleteFor example, as of 4/30/21, the Fidelity Select Biotechnology (FBIOX) had a 1.08% weighting in Intellia, the only one with a greater than 1% weighting. That fund had a 2.46% weighting Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)that would be hurt by Intellia's therapy whose early trial results were released last Saturday.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/fbiox/portfolio
I mentioned in an earlier comment that this fund barely had a position in CRSP.
Some of the recent buying in the gene editing stocks may be coming from these large mutual funds in addition to the MEME crowd, short sell covering and other non-fundamental oriented stock buyers.
Healthcare mutual funds, such as the T. Rowe Price Health Sciences (PRHSX) which have even smaller positions, may be buying as well.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prhsx/portfolio
When looking for a fund's currently owned stocks at Morningstar, click the "Portfolio" tab and then click "Show More Holdings) which will expand the list to about the top 25 holdings.
I looked at that fund's semi-annual report for the period ending 6/30/21. With assets over $14.66B, I saw only a tiny position in CRSP ($24.2+M).
I would like to hear these fund managers explain why they are avoiding these stocks. Maybe their collective avoidance of any meaningful position will prove to be the correct one, but I doubt it, though I am just an old guy with no training in science or medicine sitting at a desk in Tennessee. And buying now after a big price run up is not exactly a recommendation for their expertise.
I find it curious that the fund managers didn't jump into the gene editing more.
DeleteI can't imagine a reason. After huge runups sure. But were they ahead of the curve with other hot areas like lithium and solar panels and 3D? Or was that run up by retail and small funds advisors, and the big investors avoided?
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN)
ReplyDelete$575.52 $16.98 +3.04%
Last Updated: Jul 1, 2021 at 2:32 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/regn?mod=over_search
"Regeneron Genetics Center Discovers GPR75 Gene Mutations that Protect Against Obesity"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regeneron-genetics-center-discovers-gpr75-gene-mutations-that-protect-against-obesity-301323892.html
If this is for real, +3% doesn't begin to cover it's value. I imagine it's not that spectacular yet. I need to read more.
DeleteLand: Identifying a gene that may impact obesity is not the same as developing a therapy. I don't think NVO has anything to worry about yet.
DeleteI would add that the patent protections for
gene-editing therapies have not been tested yet.
See CRSP discussion starting at page 77 of its 2020 Annual Report:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674416/000156459021006074/crsp-10k_20201231.htm#ITEM_1A_RISK_FACTORS
That explains it. But awww, I need to keep my chocolate bar eating tamped down :(.
DeleteOn the patents - there will be a problem figuring out what company and stocks will gain. The ones that invent the best aren't always the ones that succeed.
Enbridge Inc. (ENB)
ReplyDelete$40.39 +$0.35 +$0.87%
YIELD 6.88%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/enb?mod=over_search
I own ENB as a bond substitute and for its dividend growth.
I noted that Goldman Sachs raised its rating today from sell to neutral and increased its price target from $35 to $40.
If I was following GS advice, which I am not, I would be curious to know how I hold a stock now that had to be sold at $35. Do I buy at $40.39 with the new GS PT at $40?
Dividend Growth History:
https://www.enbridge.com/investment-center/stock-and-dividend-information/dividends-and-common-shares
Well... at least... the stock met their price point. Although it's a little anticlimatic to meet it before you announce it.
DeleteThey're allowed to reassess and change their ratings.
I only look at suggested ratings to see if there are factors I haven't thought of. But one of the best ways not to get dizzy in the market is to ignore the advisors. (I don't even know what they're called.)
I'm seeing in my google feed, a lot of bubble articles. Makes me wonder if another rally is coming now.
ReplyDeleteDid I miss quadruple witching day?
I have three job offer calls in my email. A tech org that supports campaigns (non-profit, but these are paid tasks). A patient advocacy medical org needing an admin position. A American-Israel alliance social org (social programming, and not much political) with a bunch of positions. I normally have no requests in my in box.
But what does it mean? Jobs increasingly available? Harder to find people, need to reach out? Email's cheaper to recruit on than Indeed?
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/07/afin-cizn-clx-exg-fcx-fts-goodm-htbk-kr.html