Economy:
Industrial output rebounds strongly in October - MarketWatch (up 1.1% in October but still 5.6% below the pre-pandemic level); The Fed - Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17
15 Asia Pacific countries including China sign world's largest trade deal The trade deal, called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, excludes the U.S. This deal enhances China's economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region, which is something that Obama try to restrain with the Trans-Pacific Partnership that excluded China. Trump abandoned that deal and instead slapped punitive sanctions on several of the signatories.
Economists warn of lag time between vaccine and recovery | TheHill
U.S. Census Department: October Retail Sales up .3%, vs. .5% consensus. Press Release.pdf September retail sales, previously released, were revised down to +1.6% from +1.9%. I pay more attention to individual company reports since this aggregate survey data from the Census Bureau could easily be way off on a nationwide basis.
EU’s Gentiloni worried after Hungary and Poland veto stimulus
There were 747K new unemployment claims filed for the W/E 11/14/2020. The consensus estimate was for 700K. The 4 week moving average is 742K through 11/14.
Coronavirus drives global debt to a new record high ($277 trillion by year end) There will be no restraint on the debt bomb growing in potentially destructive power)
Treasury moves to end several crisis-era programs, drawing pushback from the Fed; Fed criticizes Treasury move to end emergency lending programs - The Washington Post Those programs required Mnuchin's approval to extend beyond this year. There was no legitimate reason justifying his decision.
Mnuchin's Fed move is like stripping Titanic of its lifeboats: Economist
Coronavirus surge is starting to put consumers on alert: Jim Bianco
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Markets and Market Commentary:
S & P 500 P/E as of 11/20/20:
Trailing 12 Months GAAP: 40.73
Estimated Future 12 months Non-GAAP: 25.51
Dividend Yield: 1.69%
Sourced: P/E & Yields
Shiller PE Ratio: 32.43 (higher than on Black Tuesday in 1929)
Market Cap to GDP - The Buffett Indicator - Updated Historical Chart | Longtermtrends (the ratio is significantly higher than at the peak in 2000)
JPMorgan says Q1 GDP will decline because of Covid surge
Here's why stocks can climb 15% next year, according to JPMorgan's strategists - MarketWatch
Why Value Stocks’ Gains Might Be Real This Time | Barron's
These are the 14 value stocks that top-performing investment newsletters like the most - MarketWatch
Here are Wall Street’s 20 favorite value stocks - MarketWatch
Walmart (WMT) Q3 2021 earnings beat (e-commerce sales rose 79%)
Nvidia (NVDA) earnings Q3 2021 (E.P.S. non-GAAP at $2.91 vs consensus at $2.57; revenues at $4.73B, up 57% Y-O-Y vs. consensus at $4.41B; GAAP E.P.S. at $2.12 and at $4.59 per diluted share for the first nine months) SEC Filed Press Release); Quote: NVDA
John Malone buys hard assets like housing in bet on currency devaluation
Vornado suspends effort to sell buildings it co-owns with the Trumps - WSJ (NYSE:VNO) | Seeking Alpha I discussed VNO in my last post.
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Covid-19 Updates: 'We have it totally under control.' A timeline of President Donald Trump's response to the coronavirus pandemic - Poynter;
Saluting the Heroes of the Coronavirus Pandumbic-Excepts from "Fox News" | The Daily Show - YouTube
US Daily Deaths | The COVID Tracking Project
U.S. Daily Cases Exceeds 180,000: USA Today (11/14/20)
Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine candidate achieves 94.5% efficacy in Phase 3 trial - MarketWatch; Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Meets its Primary Efficacy Endpoint in the First Interim Analysis of the Phase 3 COVE Study
U.S. Covid cases could near zero in 6 months, UBS economist says
COVID in the Dakotas: A look at how coronavirus is 'as bad as it gets' South Dakota's raging pandemic is largely due to the actions and inactions of its republican governor Kristy Noem. South Dakota emergency-room nurse says some patients insist COVID-19 isn’t real even as they’re dying from it - MarketWatch Perhaps Darwin's process of natural selection is at work. Ms Noem, who has learned demagoguery well from Donald, has national ambitions.
More than 900 Mayo Clinic staff members diagnosed with Covid-19 in Midwest over two weeks
WHO tells doctors don't use Gilead's remdesivir, splitting with FDA
'It's not enough': Health experts say Iowa governor's new Covid-19 order is 'weak'
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The Dangerous Demagogue Don:
Trump's election power play: Persuade Republican legislators to do what U.S. voters did not | Reuters It is important to remember that 73+M Americans wanted a lying, sociopathic demagogue to serve another 4 years as President, notwithstanding those obvious characteristics and his clear and persistent efforts to undermine the foundations of America's democracy.
Why Trump's Attempts to Overturn 2020 Election Are Unparalleled in US History - The New York Times, republished at MSN: Why Trump's Attempts to Overturn 2020 Election Are Unparalleled in US History
Trump talked out of attacking Iran's nuclear facilities last week: report - MarketWatch
Rumor Control | CISA CISA is a U.S. government agency that has been debunking Trump's reality creations and false narratives about the election. The previous links summarizes findings relating to Trumpster efforts to discredit democracy and the election process. Even if a Trumpster came across that website, which is the kind of fact check article that they studiously avoid, the statements made therein would be dismissed as false without a moment's hesitation. That would be the case with any fact-check article that provides information inconsistent with Trump's claims and extends of course to investigations by a wide variety of media outlets, particularly the Washington Post and New York Times.
The CISA set up is "Rumor Control" website to combat Russian disinformation campaigns relating to the election and ended up addressing the false claims made by Trump.
Don the Authoritarian fired the head of CISA, Christopher Krebs, for contradicting Demagogue Don's false claims about the election. Trump says DHS cybersecurity chief Chris Krebs has been terminated; PolitiFact | Fact-checking Donald Trump’s tweet firing Christopher Krebs (rated as Pants on Fire). Trump and his party have engaged; are now engaged; and will continue to engage in a full bore assault on the foundations of American democracy.
Stop the Steal's massive disinformation campaign connected to Roger Stone and Steve Bannon Bannon is awaiting his criminal trial and recently suggested that both Fauci and the FBI Director deserved to be beheaded with their heads stuck on a pole. Steve Bannon, three others charged with fraud in border wall fundraising campaign; Twitter Suspends Steve Bannon Account After Suggesting Fauci and the FBI Director Should Be Beheaded: NPR Trump recently commuted the felony convictions of his friend Roger Stone. Trump Commutes Sentence of Roger Stone on 7 Felony Crimes - The New York Times
Accused 'dead' voter is alive and speaking out
Election 2020: GOP officials in swing states shoot down Trump fraud claims
Don the Con is recommending that his cult members quit watching Fox during the daytime and instead start viewing NewsMax and One America News. Sam Donaldson, the former ABC News anchor, noted that Trump's supporters will watch anyone who supplies them "with a false narrative that does not exist". Fox News has never seen competition like Newsmax
In Donald's rage tweets over last weekend, he claimed that Biden "won because the Election was Rigged"; but soon thereafter he walked that statement backs saying he "will concede Nothing". Donald made his usual false claims about the election process that resulted in his defeat.
Last Monday, Lying Don published this tweet:
When the vote count finally ends, Don the Authoritarian will have received over 11M more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016.
The 73+M Americans who wanted him to serve another 4 years as President reached that result after being able to assess his fitness over almost a 4 year period.
While some may hope that Donald will just become just another crackpot and wingnut on the internet after leaving office, his hold over almost 1/2 of voters will likely remain for years to come. He certainly has what it takes to anchor an hour long program each weeknight on Fox "news". Maybe Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson or Laura Ingraham will give up their spot.
Demagogue Don may even be able to grow his cult after leaving office.
If Donald decides to run again in 2024, he will be the republican nominee.
The U.S. is an extraordinarily fertile ground for a lying, authoritarian "republican" demagogue to hold power, as Trump's success has proved beyond any doubt. Republican politicians, concerned only about their power in Trump's party rather than democratic norms, will do absolutely nothing to deter or restrain one, a fact proven beyond any doubt by the past 4 years; and most will enable, protect and nurture the next one which may be Donald again.
The next republican demagogue who succeeds Donald may be more competent, which will not be a hard hurdle to jump. Just lie about everything all of the time, stoke divisions that are already present, appeal to people's worst instincts and fears, all of which works on around 70+M voters, but avoid needlessly antagonizing suburban women that cost Donald a few thousand votes in swing states.
Donald lost the popular vote by close to 6 million votes, an irrelevant statistic in our representative democracy. He actually lost the election by approximately 77,000 votes.
As of 11/19, Biden by
Arizona: 10,457
Georgia: 12,284
Nevada: 33,596
Wisconsin: 20,565
Total 76,902 votes
Actual (270 to Win): Biden 306 Electoral Votes/Trump 232
Take away from Biden electoral votes from Arizona (11), Nevada (6), Georgia (16) and Wisconsin (10) and give them to Donald
Biden: 263
Trump: 275 elected for another 4 years with about 77,000 more votes scattered in 4 states.
The electoral college method for selecting the President and Vice President is required by the Constitution. Interpretation: Article II, Section 1, Clauses 2 and 3 | The National Constitution Center; ABA Legal Fact Check: Can the Electoral College be abolished?
Voting History: The Real Reason the Electoral College Exists | Time
The only way to change that method is through a constitutional amendment that requires approval by a 2/3rds majority in Congress and ratification by 3/4ths of the state legislatures. Amending the U.S. Constitution That will never happen since Trump's party knows that the electoral college is their easiest path, perhaps their only one now, to controlling the executive branch. There are only so many people susceptible to the republican strategies summarized below, and the number of angry white people as a percentage of the electorate is diminishing.
Trump fans head to the streets as he pushes false election claims
One common refrain about the election that passes for a thought in Trumpworld is that it is incumbent for Biden and the Democrats to prove there was no voter fraud after Trump states that there was, citing nothing other than unreliable hearsay or irrelevant information, if that, usually generated by his cult members upset about the election results.
Another salient point IMO is that the Trumpsters will rely on fact free conspiracy theories that no sensible person would even consider and will disregard reliable evidence inconsistent with their beliefs formed in their alternate reality. They are some of the most easily manipulated people around since they are not grounded or tethered to facts and readily reject accurate information.
Trump’s day on Twitter: Living in an immaterial world - The Washington Post The fact checkers at the WP focused in that article just on the false tweets published by Donald last Monday. It is just staggering the number of false statements that he makes. Donald has done a far better job undermining faith in U.S. elections and attacking institutions necessary for a properly functioning democracy than Putin could ever hope to do.
Trump Tax Write-Offs Are Ensnared in 2 New York Fraud Investigations - The New York Times
Primary Strategies of Trump's Party to Acquire and Maintain Power:
The primary threat to America's democracy and freedoms comes from within. Donald Trump is the republican party-one and the same.
Opinion | Trump and Giuliani are the Republican Party - The Washington Post
The three most successful political strategies in the U.S. since FDR's coalition started to fall apart originated from the GOP and have continuously been in use for about 50 years. Trump merely accelerated the GOP's reliance on them and made them more overt and obvious.
The first, generally known as the Southern strategy, successfully peeled off white voters, particularly in the south, from the democrats. This strategy was from the start, and is today, a fundamentally racist approach that seeks to stoke racial divisions. The intellectual architect of that strategy was Kevin Phillips and was laid out in his 1969 book, The Emerging Republican Majority. I read that book in 1970 or 1971 and was asked by a "Yankee" political science Professor whether this strategy would work. I replied that I know these people and of course it will work. It worked better than the architects could have imagined when it was first developed in the 1960s.
See also, The Emerging Republican Majority, 50 Years Later - The Atlantic
The second, which also started with Nixon, is to generate distrust of traditional media outlets so that millions of voters will only view as true information conveyed to them by republicans and their supporters in the media. This strategy has resulted in tens of millions no longer accessing accurate information and relying instead on false statements and narratives, particularly fact free conspiracy theories, that are created to manipulate them politically. This strategy is IMO the most successful in American history since it creates an alternate reality for tens of millions that can never be pierced with the truth. Residency in the alternate reality is permanent. Few, if any, will ever escape.
The third strategy is critical as well and involves doing just about anything to appease the Taliban wing of Trump's party.
Trump's party is now test driving a 4th strategy, a refusal to accept the results of an election and spreading false claims about voting irregularities in an effort delegitimize the election results viewed with disfavor and to undermine as much as possible the President-Elect's administration before his inauguration.
Rudy Giuliani demands 1.5m PA votes thrown out; Trump is asking a federal court law to throw out the votes and to allow the republican controlled PA legislature to appoint the state's electors. I am guessing those electors would not be Biden supporters.
It is no longer possible IMO to view Trump and his party as being pro-democracy when they are doing more than America's enemies to undermine it, as outlined above and in the following section.
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This article fact checks Rudy's false claims about voting machines made on the Fake News Network that of course go unchallenged even though they are demonstrably false. Giuliani’s fantasy parade of false voter-fraud claims - The Washington Post Rudy is making an array of demonstrably false statements. Election 2020: Setting the Record Straight - Dominion Voting Systems
Ongoing Republican Efforts to Cancel Election Results they do not like:
Georgia:
Georgia secretary of state says Lindsey Graham and other Republicans have pressured him to toss legal ballots: report - MarketWatch; Georgia's Republican secretary of state says fellow Republicans are pressuring him to find ways to exclude legal ballots - The Washington Post This is to be expected. The Georgia Secretary of State has received death threats from Trumpsters for refusing to play ball in overturning the election results.
After Lindsey Graham, a republican senator from S.C., denied making an illegal attempt to interfere in Georgia's vote tabulation, the Georgia republican Secretary of State stood by his accusation that Graham, one of Donald's hustlers and possibly the most hypocritical politician known to man, was seeking to invalidate legally counted votes. How Brad Raffensperger became the most hated man in his party Georgia's secretary of state says Lindsey Graham suggested throwing out certain ballots - CBS News
Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (R) calls for audit after state certifies election results - CBS News Trump has reportedly demanded that Kemp intervene on his behalf and was furious with the governor for allowing Biden to win the hand vote recount that confirmed that Biden won.
There are thin veneers protecting American democracy from persistent and flagrant republican attacks and efforts to undermine it. In Georgia, it just so happened that the Georgia Secretary of State is an honorable man and would not bow to threats and pressures from other members of his party. I can not say the same about Governor Brian Kemp (R).
Michigan:
In Michigan, only an overwhelming outcry saved the votes of blacks in Detroit after the two republican members of a 4 member Wayne County Board of Canvassers, refused to certify the votes in Detroit but were apparently willing to certify the votes elsewhere in the country where there were far fewer blacks. The 2 republicans are Monica Palmer and William Hartmann. It was Ms. Palmer who moved to certify the results outside of Detroit (3/4ths of Wayne County outside Detroit is white/80% black in Detroit) The republicans deny that their motivations were racist.
Board in key Michigan county fails, then agrees, to certify vote totals by deadline - The Washington Post; In reversal, Michigan's Wayne County certifies election results after initial deadlock - MarketWatch
When Michigan Republicans Refused to Certify Votes, It Wasn’t Normal - The New York Times; The first big test of Trump’s attempt to steal the electoral college was a failure - The Washington Post, republished at MSN: The first big test of Trump’s attempt to steal the electoral college was a failure
Republican William Hartman who temporarily blocked certification of a Michigan county's results shared election conspiracy theories on Facebook ("He also shared racist posts about President Barack Obama during his presidency.")
The Trump strategy in Michigan was laid out by one of his legal advisors Jenna Ellis. Stop the certification and then the republican controlled Michigan legislature would chose the electors. Why Donald Trump's Strategy is Dangerous Even if It Fails | Time The legal advisor tweeted that, if the Michigan state board deadlocked like the Wayne County board, "the Republican state legislator[s] will select the electors. Huge win for @realDonaldTrump.”
Has Ms Ellis had a genuine change of heart from her earlier opinions about Trump? Trump's legal adviser Jenna Ellis in 2016 called him an 'idiot', 'boorish and arrogant'; his values were "not American"; he wasn't a 'real christian" and said his supporters didn't care about 'facts or logic' She graduated from the University of Richmond law school.
The two republicans, Monica Palmer and William Hartman, have now requested that their votes to certify Wayne counties results be rescinded. In Wayne County, Mich., GOP members of canvassing board ask to 'rescind' their votes certifying the election - The Washington Post
Both Palmer and Hartman claim that they are acting in good faith and have no racist motives. Michigan's Wayne County certifies election results after initially deadlocking - CBS News ("There were similar issues with poll books being out of balance during the 2016 election and the August primary earlier this year. The canvassing board certified the results after those elections. . . Before the county board reversed its decision, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson issued a statement saying, "It is common for some precincts in Michigan and across the country to be out of balance by a small number of votes, especially when turnout is high. Importantly, this is not an indication that any votes were improperly cast or counted." emphasis added)
In other words, the republicans took a routine issue and tried to use it as an excuse to block certifying votes cast in Detroit which only coincidentally and just so happens would give Donald Michigan.
Ms. Palmer acknowledged receiving a call from Trump and claimed that the call had nothing to do with her attempt thereafter to rescind her vote certifying the Wayne County election results. Trump called Monica Palmer, Wayne County official who asked to ‘rescind’ vote certifying election resultsIn Wayne County, Mich.The Washington Post Donald was merely concerned about Ms. Palmer's safety. Asked about whether the certification was discussed with Trump, Ms. Palmer replied: "It's hard for me to describe. There was a lot of adrenalin and stress going on. There were general comments about different states but we really didn't discuss the details of the certification."
It is not clear whether Donald called William Hartman. He is not apparently talking to reporters.
Michigan: Trump courts state GOP leaders in bid to overturn election he lost The republican approach now is to convince the two republicans on the state canvassing board to refuse certification and then have the republican legislature appoint electors. Michigan GOP Leaders to Meet With Trump Amid Concerns Republicans May Try to Overturn State's Election Results
One of the 4 members, a republican state senator, has already said that he will likely vote against certification on Monday. ("Norman Shinkle, said Thursday said that he is leaning toward asking for a delay in the certification vote and calling for an audit." Shinkle is concerned about Hugo Chavez, who passed 7 years ago, may have being involved in developing the voting software used in some areas. His wife filed an affidavit supporting one of Trump's lawsuit to overturn the election results) The board is scheduled to vote Monday. If the state Board deadlocks 2 to 2, a writ of mandamus will be filed in Michigan's state court requesting an order requiring the law and order republicans to do their ministerial duty as required by state law.
Michigan official responds to Trump's false declaration
Fact check: Trump's bogus claim of more votes in Detroit than people
Demagogue Don knows that lying works and is the road to political power in the republican party.
Trump lawsuit mixes up 'red flags' in Michigan with Minnesota; Trump lawyers' error-riddled affidavit - The Washington Post Trump was trying to show that several Michigan precincts had more votes than registered voters but the so called evidence referenced precincts in Minnesota rather than Michigan. And the Minnesota data used in the Trumpster affidavit is not "backed up" with publicly available information at the Minnesota Secretary of State's office. The Fake News Network, the one that is "fair and balanced", gave the affiant a lot of time to spew this false information without being challenged of course.
It is easy to understand how a Trumpster could mix up Michigan and Minnesota. Both states start with "MI" and then have two syllables which can easily cause confusion.
I would note that Biden only received a few hundred more votes than Hillary out of Detroit. Biden's margin of victory, far larger than Trump's margin over Hillary which was 10,704, came from the suburbs. The republicans are not yet willing to toss those votes. They can win by simply canceling the black vote in Detroit.
It needs to be remembered that Demagogue Don claimed that he won the popular vote in in 2016, citing no evidence which is of course an unnecessary burden in Trump's America:
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Trump and other republicans are brazenly interfering with pro forma certifications in order to scuttle the popular vote that went against Don the Authoritarian. In this effort, Donald is being aided and abetted by republican politicians.
Starting with Trump's lawsuits to stop the vote count in states that he would eventually lose to his current rash of lawsuits attempting to prevent timely certifications as required by law or to secure judge orders throwing out a state's election results which paves the wave for republican controlled legislatures to appoint electors, the republican party has revealed once again its true colors as an anti-democracy party which IMO is obvious.
The republicans already have two built-in constitutional advantages that are fundamentally undemocratic: the electoral college and two senators per state. They expand on those advantages through political gerrymandering activities that are allowed by their republican colleagues on the Supreme Court. Supreme Court Decision Means Partisan Redistricting Issue Will Be Left To States-NPR; 5 to 4 decision in Rucho v. Common Cause) That ensures that the majority of voters in many states can not control their state legislatures who engage in the gerrymandering and otherwise increases the number of GOP congressional and state representatives.
Trump Tweets Conspiracy Theory About Deleted Votes - FactCheck.org Just another example of Trump broadcasting conspiracy theories worldwide that are generated by anonymous persons posting on conspiracy websites.
Fact checking Giuliani and the Trump legal team's wild, fact-free press conference; Fact-checking the craziest news conference of the Trump presidency - The Washington Post
Christopher Krebs, recently fired by Trump for defending democracy at CISA, had this to say about this press conference (where Giuliani black hair dye ran down his face in liquid form):
Rudy Giuliani's attempt to sow chaos on behalf of Trump and steal the election for Trump
Rudy Giuliani baselessly alleges 'centralized' voter fraud at free-wheeling news conference Giuliani said at some point he will prove that Trump won PA by 300,000 votes.
PolitiFact | Fact-checking false claims about the 2020 election
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Congressman Louis Gohmert (R-TX) claimed that the U.S. military seized a server in Germany that show Trump had actually won in a landslide. Fact check: The U.S. military has not seized election servers in Germany | Reuters; PolitiFact | No, US military did not raid election software company tied to Dominion (rated Pants on Fire)
Trumpsters are chanting at night outside of the Arizona Secretary of States' home who reportedly has received death threats. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs addresses threats of violence, video shows protesters outside home
Dominion employees latest to face threats, harassment in wake of Trump conspiracy - ABC News; Fact check: Dominion voting machines didn't delete or switch votes
Fact check: False report has Donald Trump at 410 electoral votes This comes from one of the up and coming Fake News "networks".
77% of Trump voters now believe Biden won by fraud. More Americans Happy About Trump Loss Than Biden Win | Monmouth University Polling Institute ("Three-quarters (77%) of Trump backers say Biden’s win was due to fraud.")
81% of republicans believe Donald is honest and almost as many view him as a role model for their children.
 |
| 81% of Republicans-Donald is Honest |
51% of Republican Still Think Obama Was Born in Kenya
Majority Of Republicans Believe The QAnon Conspiracy Theory Is Partly Or Mostly True, Survey Finds
Trump election lawyer Sidney Powell is longtime QAnon supporter - Business Insider
National (US) Poll ("Republicans say 72 - 22 percent that Trump is a good role model for children.")
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Trump Administration Moves to Sell Oil Rights in Arctic Refuge - The New York Times (11/16/20)
Federal judge rules acting DHS head Chad Wolf unlawfully appointed, invalidates DACA suspension Wolf was illegally appointed by Trump, a conclusion reached by the GAO several months ago. GAO finds Chad Wolf, Ken Cuccinelli are ineligible to serve in their top DHS roles - POLITICO Laws are of no concern to Donald unless he makes them through Executive Orders.
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1. Small Ball:
Baseball analogy-Small ball (baseball)-Wikipedia (bunt, walk, hit by pitch, singles, stealing bases, etc.)
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved:
The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled and disciplined trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield.
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure.
A. Started NJR- Bought 10 at $29.08:
Quote New Jersey Resources Corp. (NJR)
 |
| About NJR |
Stock Information as of 11/20/20:
New Jersey Resources - Investor Relations
NJR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Website: New Jersey Resources (NJR)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.3325 ($1.33 annually), raised from $.3125 effective for the payment made on 10/1/20. New Jersey Resources Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Dividend
Yield at $29.08: 4.57%
Next Ex Dividend: 12/15/20
5 Year Chart:
5 Year Financials (Fiscal Year Ending in September):
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20) SEC Filing
Natural gas utilities generally report a loss in the calendar second quarter. The main profit quarters are during the winter months.
The next report is scheduled for release on 11/30. I will mention the results in a comment to this post.
NJR is a component of the ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (REGL); ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | REGL | Overview | ProShares ETFs (requires 15 consecutive years of dividend increases)
Stock Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (10/22/20): 3 stars with a $37 FV
Argus (10/26/20): Buy with a $35 PT
S & P (8/26/20): 3 stars with a $35 PT
I barely generated enough enthusiasm to buy at $29.08.
Purchase Restriction: Subsequent open market purchases must be at the lowers price in the chain.
Goal: Annual Total Return of 6% to 8%
B. Restarted BZH-Bought 5 at $12.95:
Quote: Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH)-Homebuilder
Stock Information as of 11/20:
Beazer Homes is named for Brian Beazer, a British homebuilder, who started to expand into the U.S. during the 1980s through acquisitions. Beazer USA. The U.S. company evolved into Beazer Homes USA with operations in the following states:
Arizona, California, Delaware, Georgia, Indiana, Maryland Nevada, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 9/30/20
5 Year Financials:
5 Year Chart:
Long Term Chart: Beazer Homes USA - 26 Year Stock Split History | BZH | MacroTrends
Homebuilder stocks enjoyed a boom during the run up to the housing bubble collapse. BZH's downward stock price spiral started in 2006, a similar time frame for regional bank stocks, a warning signal that was ignored by the Stock Jocks. The stock prices shown in the long term chart have been adjusted for a 3 for 1 stock split in 2005 and a 1 for 5 reverse split in December 2012. BZH Split History; Beazer Homes USA, Inc. Announces 1-for-5 Reverse Stock Split; Will Begin Split-Adjusted Trading on NYSE Tomorrow
Last Earnings Report (F/Q Ending 9/30/20): Beazer Homes Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal 2020 Results
Net Income of $23.678M from continuing operations which is after a loss on debt extinguishment, employee severance expenses, impairment and restructuring charges, up from $2.429M on an equivalent basis:
Diluted E.P.S. was reported at $.79 which included a 3 cent loss for discontinued operations. The E.P.S. for the Q/E 9/30/20 was $.08.
The fiscal year ended on 9/30/20.
E.P.S. for the 2020 fiscal year was reported at $1.74 on a diluted share basis and after a 4 cent lost on discontinued operations. Using that number to calculate the P/E at a $12.95 price, I arrive at a 7.44 P/E. Earnings are highly erratic and unreliable. For companies displaying that kind of pattern, a surge in earnings that results in a low P/E does not necessarily mean that the stock represents value.
Inventory Breakdown:
Cash: $327.693M
Debt:
Beazer Homes USA, Inc. 2020 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:BZH) | Seeking Alpha
YF claims that Beazer beat by 22 cents per share, using a consensus estimate of $.58 and an actual of $.80. BZH Analysts- Yahoo Finance The $.80 number is the basic income per share (not diluted) after the 3 cent loss on discontinued operations.
Beazer took a big write-off for several of its California assets in the Q/E 3/31/20: SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and 10-Q at page 12. That is one reason for the Lotto Ticket classification.
Goal: Homebuilding stocks will have parabolic moves. I do not view them as long term holds, though an uptrend can last for several years before imploding.
BZH produced a +626.14% return between 6/1/2000 and 1/9/2007: DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
The return starting on 1/10/2007 and ending yesterday was -93.62% or an annual average return of -18%.
Prior Trade: My only prior trade was a 10 share lot, realizing a gain of $77.59:
C. Eliminated UMPQ-Sold 5 at $13.3:
Quote: Umpqua Holdings Corp. (UMPQ)
Profit Snapshot: $19.65 (10/26 sell only)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Rationale: I have been disappointed with the earnings reports for the first and second quarters and consequently had no intention of buying more shares. The first quarter E.P.S. was reported at -$8.41 and the second quarter at +$.24.
I discussed the second quarter report in this post: Item # 1.H. Pared UMPQ-Sold 10 at $11.43 (8/22/20 Post)
Prior Elimination: Item # 4.A. Sold 101+ UMPQ at $18.34 (1/30/2019)
UMPQ Trading Profits to Date: +$720.75
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release This report showed some improvement with E.P.S. increasing to $.57.
D. Added to IGR-Bought 10 at $5.79; 5 at $5.59:
Quote: CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund Overview- A CEF
Closing Price 11/20: IGR $6.47 -$0.07 -1.07%
Leveraged: Yes.
Sponsor's Website: Global RE Income Fund - CBRE Clarion
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 6/30/20): CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund
Average Cost Per Share this Account: $6.18 (331+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.05 per share (heavy ROC support)
Yield at AC = 9.71%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 11/19/20 (owned all as of)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, given the current discount to net asset value per share
Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Added to IGR-Bought 2 at $6.08; 5 at $5.82 (10/10/20 Post)
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.E. Added 5 IGR at $3.75; 50 at at $5.69; and 10 at $5.1 (5/16/20 Post)
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1. I. Eliminated IGR Vanguard Account-Sold 100 at $5.95 and Eliminated IGR in Schwab Account-Sold 100 at $5.96 (6/13/20 Post)(profit snapshots= $113.32); Item # 1.C. Sold 9 IGR at $8.33 (2/19/20 Post)(shares purchased with dividends, profit on each lot with a $4.99 total profit); Item # 2.A. Sold 100 IGR at $8.01 (12/28/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $42.98)
Data Date of 10/27/20 Trade (click Pricing Information tab):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $7.12
Closing Price: $5.57
Discount: -19.1%
Sourced: IGR CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)
Goal: Harvest several monthly dividends and then exit the position at a share profit before ROC adjustments to the taxable cost basis.
E. Added to CSCO-Bought 1 at $36.8; 1 at $36; 1 at $35.62:
Quote: Cisco Systems Inc.
Stock Information as of 11/20:
Investment Category: Contrarian Value/Bond Substitute
Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Added to CSCO-Bought 1 at $38.82; 1 at $38.34; 1 at $37.69 (10/17/20 Post); Item # 1.H. (9/13/2020)
Average Cost Per Share this account: $39.77 ( 19 shares)
Dividend: $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)
Yield at AC = 3.62%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/1/20
5 Year Chart as of 11/20:
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending on 10/24/20): This is Cisco's first fiscal quarter for the 2021 fiscal year:
GAAP to Non-GAAP Adjustments:
Quote: Aberdeen Total Dynamic Dividend Fund Overview
Closing Price 11/20: AOD $8.37 +$0.03 +0.36%
SEC Filed Portfolio as of 7/31/20
Average Cost Per Share: $8.09 (65+ Shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.0575 ($.69 annually)
Aberdeen Total Dynamic Dividend Fund Common Stock (AOD) Dividend History
Yield at AC = 8.53%
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, given the discount to net asset value per share
Last Ex Dividend: 11/19/20 (owned all as of)
Last Discussions: Item # 1.A. Added to AOD-Bought 10 at $8.08 (10/24/20 Post); Item # 1 Started AOD -Bought 50 at $8.17 (9/12/20 Post)
Top 10 Equity Holdings as of 9/30/20:
Data Date of 10/28/20 Trade (click "Pricing Information" Tab):
Closing net Asset Value Per Share: $8.78
Closing Market Price: $7.45
Discount: -15.15%
Sourced: AOD- CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)
G. Added to PRU (Vanguard Taxable Account)-Bought 1 at $61.3:
Quote: Prudential Financial Inc.
Stock Information as of 11/20/20:
Prudential Financial Investor Relations
Prudential Financial, Inc. - Credit Ratings
Last Discussed: Item # 4.H. Started PRU-Bought 5 at $63.8; 1 at $63.2 (8/29/20 Post)
New Average Cost This Account: $63.37 (7 shares)
Dividend: $1.1 per share ($4.4 annually), raised from $1 per share effective for the 2020 first quarter payment
Prudential Financial, Inc. - Stock Information - Dividends
Yield at AC = 6.94%
Ex dividend date : 11/23/20
5 year chart as of 11/20/20:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Net Income = $1.487B
E.P.S. $3.70, up Y-O-Y from $3.44
Operating E.P.S. : $3.21 vs. $3.09
See Item # 1.G. above
Profit Snapshot: $10.6 (11/10 sell only)
New Dividend Yield: 7.03%
I. Started FMAGX-Bought $100 at $11.79:
Quote: FMAGX | Fidelity Magellan Fund Overview
Closing Price 11/12: $12.46 -$.10
Major holdings can be accessed at the Morningstar website by first clicking "Portfolio", the scrolling down to "Holdings" and then clicking "Show More Holdings". I would emphasize the P/E ratios shown in that data as not being comforting.
Since I view most of those holdings as being overvalued, I took only a Placeholder position that will serve as a reminder to do something more when the market tanks again.
J. Added to BAM-Bought 1 at $30.2:
Quote: Brookfield Asset Management Inc. Cl A (BAM)
Stock Information as of 11/20/20:
Investor Relations: Brookfield Asset Management Inc
New Average Cost this Account: $31.92 (7 shares)
Last Discussed: Item # 4.G. Restarted BAM-Bought 5 at $32.21; 1 at $31.78 (8/29/20 Post) I discussed the 2nd quarter report in that post.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share, last raised from $.1067 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.
Distribution History – Brookfield Asset Management Inc
Yield at AC = 1.5%
Next Ex Dividend: 11/29/20
5 Year Chart:
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): SEC Filing
CAD Available for Dividends and/or Reinvestment
K. Started UNM-Bought 5 at $16.2:
Quote: Unum Group (UNM)
Stock Information as of 11/20:
Corporate Profile - UNUM GROUP
UNM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
5 Year Chart:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.285 per share ($1.14 annually), last raised from $.26 effective for the 2019 third quarter payment.
Yield at $16.2: 7.04%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 10/29/20 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20):
"net income of $231.1 million ($1.13 per diluted common share) for the third quarter of 2020; after-tax adjusted operating income was $245.9 million ($1.21 per diluted common share).
Included in net income for the third quarter of 2020 are after-tax costs related to an organizational design update of $18.6 million ($0.09 per diluted common share), as well as a net after-tax realized investment gain on the Company’s investment portfolio of $3.8 million ($0.01 per diluted common share). Included in net income for the third quarter of 2019 are after-tax costs related to the early retirement of debt of $19.9 million ($0.10 per diluted common share), as well as a net after-tax realized investment loss on the Company's investment portfolio of $20.8 million ($0.10 per diluted common share). Excluding the items above, after-tax adjusted operating income was $245.9 million ($1.21 per diluted common share) in the third quarter of 2020, compared to $282.7 million ($1.36 per diluted common share) in the third quarter of 2019.
Book value per common share of $53.50 grew 14.6 percent over the year-ago quarter."
I discuss this earnings report and the 2019 charge relating to UNUM's long term care insurance business in this 11/16/20 comment.
Yesterday, I found this statement at page 64 of the last filed 10-Q relating to futures reserves needed for the long term care segment:
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 This is a significant reason why the stock is selling at such a low multiple to operating earnings. It remains to be seen whether the regulator was correct in its assessment.
On 11/17/20, Barclays started UNM with an underweight rating and a $21 PT.
S & P Report (9/9/20): 3 stars with a $18 PT. The S & P analyst expects that reserve boosts for the long term care insurance business will continue fro another 7 years.
Analysts are not too exited about this stock.
Last Bond Offering (May 2020): Final Prospectus Supplement ($500M, 4.5% senior notes due 2025)That is a high rate for a 5 year bond.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
L. Pared FDUS (Vanguard Taxable Account)-Sold 10 at $11.87 (highest cost lot this account):
Quote: Fidus Investment Corp.- A BDC
Stock Information as of 11/20:
Investor Relations | Fidus Investment Corporation
History this Account Before Pare:
Average Cost Per Share After Pare: $8 (15 shares)
Dividend: Regular at $.3 per share, reduced from $.39 effective for the 2nd quarter 2020 payment
Dividend History | Fidus Investment Corporation
Special Dividend: $.04 per share, ex dividend on 12/3
Yield at new AC = 15% (regular dividend only)
Next Ex Dividend: 12/3/20
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
9/30/20: $15.94
12/31/19: $16.85
9/30/19: $16.47 10-Q
12/30/18: $16.47
9/30/18: $16.41
3/30/18 $16.28
12/31/17 $16.05
12/31/16 $15.76
12/31/15 $15.17
12/31/14 $15.16
12/31/13 $15.35
12/21/12 $15.32
IPO at $15 June 2011
5 Year Chart:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): EX-99.1
As of 9/30/20, spillover income was estimated at $25.9M or $1.06 per share. Special dividends and deficits in NII to cover the regular dividend can be sourced from spillover income until it runs out.
As of 9/30/20, FDUS "had debt investments in one portfolio company on non-accrual status, which had an aggregate cost and fair value of $35.3 million and $5.3 million, respectively." The Accent Food Service debt was written down by about 2/3rds to $5.3M during the quarter. That loan is on non-accrual status. FDUS asserts that this company was negatively impacted by the pandemic. Accent Food Services - Premier Vending Machine Provider
Fixed Rate Debt Investments: 67.6%
Variable Rate: 32.4%
Weighted Average Yield on Debt Investments: 12.1%
Fidus Investment (FDUS) CEO Ed Ross on Q3 2020 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
See also, 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 (summary of investments starts at page 7)
Goal: A total return on a non-ROC adjusted cost basis in excess of the dividends paid, with an excess in any amount viewed as acceptable.
Other Prior Sell: Item # 1.C. Pared FDUS-Sold 52 at $15.15 (3/6/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.88)
M. Pared FDUS (Fidelity taxable account)-Sold 5 at $12.96:
See Item # 1.L above.
I used the specific identification method since I was selling the second highest cost lot bought after my highest cost lot which I still own.
Profit Snapshot: +$3.29 (11/18/20 sell only):
Old Average Cost : $11.08
Yield at New AC = 10.95%
N. Pared FDUS (Schwab taxable account)-Sold 30 at $12.99 (highest cost lot):
History this Account: It has not been easy to generate a return in excess of the dividend, but so far I have been successful.
See Item # 1.L above.
Average Cost Per Share Before Pare: $11.29
Average cost after pare: $10.41 (53+ shares)
The next highest cost lot, other than shares purchased through dividends, is a 10 share purchase at $12.17.
Profit Snapshot: +$5.78
Yield at new AC (regular dividend only): 11.53%
FDUS Realized Gains to Date: +$131.16
Goal: Total return in excess of the dividends paid. Requires trading IMO.
I also pared positions in Roth IRA accounts.
O. Pared CXP-Sold 15 at $13.96 (highest cost lots-Fidelity Taxable Account):
I am taking this trade out of time sequence just to provide another example of paring in small ball trading.
Quote: Columbia Property Trust Inc
This REIT owns office properties in Boston, San Francisco, New York and Washington, D.C. SEC Filed November 2020 Investor Presentation
Portfolio Overview | Columbia Property Trust
Profit Snapshot: +$9.69
Other purchases this account: Item # 1.B. Added to CXP-Bought 10 at $12.12; 10 at $11.57; 5 at $11.27; 5 at $10.9; 5 at $10.5 (9/26/20 Post)
Old Average Cost Per Share this account: $11.99 (75+ shares)
New Average Cost Per Share this account: $11.66 (60+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share
Columbia Property Trust-Dividends
Yield at New Average Cost: 7.2%
Yield at Old AC = 7%
Next Ex Dividend: 11/30/20
Columbia Property Trust Declares Fourth Quarter Dividend
I also own this stock in 2 Roth IRA accounts and have started small ball positions in two other taxable accounts. Items #1.O Started CXP (Vanguard Taxable)-Bought 10 at $10,55 (10/3/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20):
FFO: $.42 per share
AFFO: $.33 per share
Dividend: $.21 per share
Note that the AFFO cash flow calculation excludes maintenance expenditures from the FFO number.
2020 Guidance:
2. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added to AXPRA-Bought 50 at C$17.48 (C$1 IB Commission):
Quote: AX-PA.TO
This brings me up to 200 shares.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added to AXPPRA-Bought 50 at C$12.99 (5/16/20 Post)
Security: Equity Preferred Stock (senior in the capital structure to common shares only)
Issuer: Artis REIT (AX-UN.TO)
Issuer Last Earnings Report: Artis Real Estate Investment Trust Releases Strong Third Quarter Results, Provides Business Update on the Impact of COVID-19 and Strategic Initiatives and Announces a 3% Distribution Increase This press release also announced that the proposed spinoff of its retail properties was on hold, which could have created a tax issue for U.S. owners of the common and preferred stock. I am not sure of the tax impact when and if that happens, but it sounded like that the overall transaction would create an artificial but reportable tax sale for U.S. stock owners and then an artificial pretend buy for tax purposes at a different price.Artis Real Estate Investment Trust Announces Proposed Spin-off of its Retail Portfolio and Strategic Debt Reduction Initiative Opposition to this plan has resulted in a proxy fight which explains why management is backing down for now. I would vote with those challenging management and the current Board.
Issuer Website: Artis REIT
Par Value: C$25
Coupon: Currently at 5.662% per annum, paid quarterly
Resets Every 5 Years at a 4.06% spread to the 5 year Canadian Bond
Last Reset: September 2017
Based on the coupon rate of 5.662%, the 5 year Canadian bond was at 1.602% on the reset calculation date.
Canada 5 Year Government Bond Overview | MarketWatch
Next Reset: September 2022
As with other Canadian reset equity preferred stocks, the price is depressed due to concerns about the next reset rate resulting in a lower coupon. Once reset, the coupon stays in effect for 5 years.
Current Yield at C$17.48 price = 8.10%
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
The Shiller gets my attention. Still can climb according to 1999-2000. But not pointing to high opportunity ratio here!
ReplyDeleteIt''s a bificated market. Some stocks may be near 2000 levels? (I don't know how to calculate that). While others are at usual accessible levels... for what they were earning before this year.
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I was thinking 1st year of a presidency is the poorest. The theory is that the current president tries to heat up the economy on the way into the election, so it's overdone and recedes afterward.
This year that didn't happen. But removing the supports (benefits) is happening. Which is a similar.
When I looked it up, the history isn't clear cut, nothing to depend on.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristinmckenna/2020/08/18/heres-how-the-stock-market-has-performed-before-during-and-after-presidential-elections/?sh=2a4477194f86
But this was said about the year after the election
"Historically, U.S. stocks and bonds tend to perform better during an election year compared to the year after. For international equities, the opposite has been the case; returns the year after a U.S. presidential election far exceeded those during an election year."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristinmckenna/2020/08/18/heres-how-the-stock-market-has-performed-before-during-and-after-presidential-elections/?sh=2a4477194f86
and
https://www.thebalance.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526
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The guy who predicted elections bashed on those 10 or so measures, was correct once again!
It looks like trump's legal approach is done for.
Question is what and how much national security info is he gleaning and selling behind the scenes.
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I hadn't paid attention to UNM's longer term chart. Down since 2018 with a gap down. Is that likely the same reason as banks, the yield spread down?
PRU also has the same pattern. Placeholder because it has neg earnings?
Land: Unum is down and is viewed unfavorably by many analysts due to (1) the reserves for the long term care business, an ongoing problem; (2) the pandemic impacting the marketing of its products and (3) the negative impact on disability insurance revenues that is tied to employment levels. The later may be overrated since job losses were concentrated in low wage jobs where persons would not have nor could they afford that type of insurance.
DeletePRU is owned in several accounts but I have a hard time developing much interest. The 5 year chart tells that story. It is more of a bond substitute for now, and maybe I will swing for the fences by rounding up to 50 or 100 shares when and if the price sinks below $60.
I would not take any comfort in the Shiller ratio being higher in 2000. That was following by close to a 50% S & P 500 decline.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/10/08/the-four-totally-bad-bear-recoveries-where-is-todays-market?topic=energy
Trump's effort to throw out mail-in ballots in PA was thrown out by a federal judge who castigated Giuliani who needs to be arrested for impersonating a lawyer.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/21/politics/federal-judge-dismisses-trump-pennsylvania-lawsuit/index.html
Showboat Rudy told the judge that he was a member in good standing of the D.C. Bar when his license had been suspended for non-payment of dues.
That's good to know on the stocks!
DeleteMarket's can stay high a long time. I'd thought in 1999 was over a year but it's really more like 3/4 year when Shiller was at this level.
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I want investigations and follow up. So many actions that need to not be above the law. And I want them prosecuted by lawyers who's licenses are in good standing.
The election is over finally. Trump's now milking his own base. And distracting from whatever national security he's selling to make money or pay off debts.
I was far more comfortable buying last March than now. Maybe I can not stand prosperity.
ReplyDeleteNovember will be my best month this year as my value stocks are moving up briskly in price.
I continue to pare highest cost lots.
I am not able to find much to buy. I did start last week a small ball "buying program" in BMY. In mid-December, I will discuss the purchases made in my Schwab account, which currently has 7 shares. Altogether I own around 15.
Last Earnings Report:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14272/000001427220000277/q32020ex991.htm
Quote: Bristol Myers Squibb Co.
$61.92 +$0.31 +0.50%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bmy
PRU was ex dividend today:
Prudential Financial Inc.
$76.84 +$2.29 +3.07%
The $2.29 gain is after the stock price adjustment for the $1.1 per share dividend. So the stock gained back the dividend amount + $1.19 today.
The close last Friday was at $75.65.
That's interesting. I keep thinking I'm missing the boat by not buying up everything here that hasn't rallied big, but isn't about to go bankrupt.
DeleteNext up are good vaccines and returning to normal.
There wasn't be a stimulus and there is the end of year run out of what Mnuchin canceled.
Meanwhile I can't bring myself to do anything. I didn't buy a pile of value stocks, so maybe I should be getting into those.
Land: Putin is still standing firmly behind Donald.
DeleteWhen I look at the lawsuits that Donald's "dream team" of lawyers have filed, the common underlying theme is not fraudulent voting but to cancel lawful votes that Donald does not like.
In my lifetime, there is has never been a more anti-democracy effort in the U.S. than Donald's attempt to cancel millions of votes in PA.
Trump's lawyers are incompetent:
https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/president-trump-wanted-a-supreme-court-election-battle-his-current-appeal-simply-cannot-get-him-there/
+++++
I am having difficulty buying anything. And that contrasts with my buying in mid-March 2020, where I was filling anywhere from 80 to 120 buy orders per day, literally spending most of the day at my trading desk.
Overall I was a net seller today. My most significant buy was a 5 share lot of KHC, a deservedly hated stock that may be bottoming around $28-$29.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/khc
I lack enthusiasm but simply recognize a potential for a turnaround.
"Putin is still standing firmly behind Donald."
DeleteI missed the direct evidence, but has there ever been a better target for a KGB operation?
Even McCarthyism as evil as it was, didn't try to sell out the whole country.
There was lots of news today with all sorts of picks. The Secretary of State sounds like he's good. I don't know any of their work well. But they seem to be either moderates, or placed where they can't do harm, such as Kerry on climate change that Biden's committed to already.
A story on Bliken
https://twitter.com/AndreiCherny/status/1330710440234475521?s=20
It's good to hear intelligent names, without corporate corrupt connection.
Land: For my Putin comment, I was referring to his refusal to recognize so far Biden as President-Elect:
Deletehttps://thehill.com/policy/international/527061-putin-not-ready-to-recognize-biden-win
Donald will never concede. He claimed that there was fraud in 2016 that cost him the popular vote. No proof was ever offered by him to justify that 2016 claim; and none will be presented that he lost in 2020 due to fraud. Yet he will continue to make that claim for as long as he lives. No evidence will ever be necessary in TrumpWorld to support an accusation, even one that attempts to undermine democracy and democratic processes. Almost all republican politicians enable that result.
Then, may Putin pout a plenty.
DeleteDonald is a model of what abusers are. They claim victimhood to the end. My he pout too.
I saw a tweet today that he's very sad. Twitter moved it before I could spot which journalist wrote it. I doubt he can feel sad. Probably just moping... with a mix of terrified.
Land: While there is no direct evidence that Demagogue Don is Putin's Manchurian Candidate, I would agree with Dan Coats that there is no other explanation for Trump's conduct and words.
DeleteCoats is a former republican senator from Indiana and was for a time Donald's Director of National Intelligence from 2017 to 2019. IMO, Donald pushed him out for being honorable and sensible.
https://www.axios.com/bob-woodward-book-trump-putin-russia-dan-coats-b3994f91-8791-4fdc-9adb-ad093141592b.html
Donald's conduct and words further Putin's objectives in many ways, including creating unnecessary divisions and further igniting pre-existing ones for no legitimate purpose; undermining faith in election results; attacking the press as the "enemy of the people"; alienating U.S. allies and cozying up to dictators and other authoritarian leaders. That is just a partial list.
++
I am ascribing the markets rally since the election as related both to the vaccine news and to the fact that the Chaos King will no longer be President after his term expires.
The vaccine seems to be causing yesterday and today's rallies.
DeleteThe abuser who's leaving, won't go quietly. Abuser's never do. For the markets my question is whether his last moves will have a worry impact on the market or whether that's over.
He's planning to stay relevant for years after, including announcing his candidacy (and ability to milk his followers) before leaving office.
Everything makes me think I should be buying into this market, except that shiller valuation number. Do you see any reason why the market could do another pullback?
Oh and this is santa rally time?
Come to think of it, I should look up black friday sales. I need copypaper, and a flatscreen TV.
My stocks are up. But I don't see something to buy...
DeleteLand: Every traditional valuation measure is flashing a warning sign.
DeleteEarlier today, Cramer called the market "the most speculative" he’s ever seen.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/cramer-calls-this-stock-market-the-most-speculative-hes-ever-seen.html
He was referring to the "speculative" areas of the market. The 1999 to March 2000 period was more speculative IMO, but there is no shortage today of irrational stock pricing.
I have little incentive to stick my neck out. I am probably up close to $20K today with a relatively small stock portfolio as a percentage of brokerage assets.
The value stocks that I own are doing better than the overall market this month.The portfolio is hitting on all cylinders except for the cash that has no cylinder.
Pockets of fairly valued stocks exist but are diminishing.
I have been discussing a number of buys, either in the main posts or in comments like the BMY in a comment yesterday.
Today, I pared some regional bank stock positions by selling my highest cost lots. An example is selling 25 RF at $16.05 that reduced my average cost per share to $8.97. The lowest price RF lot was bought at $7.5 on 3/18.
I restarted small ball buying programs in a few regional bank stocks in January and February, and have been selling those shares while keeping shares bought in March-April when their prices plummeted. That is a standard risk mitigation trading technique that I use.
BDC positions are receiving the same treatment, where my goal is to earn a total return in excess of the dividend payments.
I've been checking out the buys :-). Many are in areas I'm too timid to buy into. Or lottery ticket type. Good ideas but above my skill level.
DeleteI haven't bought UMN yet. Now wishing I hadn't looked and waited each day.
I can see why you buy place holders. There are a few things I forgot about.
The DJIA closed over 30,000 today.
ReplyDeleteI recall when the ceiling was 1000 and the Stock Jocks were wondering whether that index would ever be able to break through that resistance level.
On a long term DJIA chart (uncheck inflation adjusted box if checked), the index approached 1,000 in 1966; made another stab in November 1972 (barely crossing over before retreating substantially); tried again in 1976 and failed; and finally broke through in 1982 or about 16 years after its first attempt.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
The stocks that are benefiting the most from the vaccine news are those that were hurt the worse by the pandemic. Regional bank and office REIT stocks are just 2 examples.
I am still finding a few stocks to buy that will not require me to hook up to an IV of chill juice. Those selections include stocks that are being sold now as part of the ongoing rotation. These stocks are not the kind of investments that will be funding my nursing home expenses.
An example was the purchase of a few Kellogg (K) shares, adding to a small ball position that brought the total up to 12 shares in one account.
Kellogg Co.
$62.47 -$1.20 -1.88%
YIELD 3.65%
EX-DIVIDEND DATE 11/30/20
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/k
The knock on Kellogg is that the benefits flowing from the pandemic will soon be gone.
That analysis assumes the stock actually received some boost from increased revenues during the pandemic which is not the case.
The stock was selling at over $70 back in January.
Revenues have been juiced by more people eating at home. Consequently, when that ends, analysts are predicting E.P.S. of $4 next year compared to $4.10 this year and $4.18 in 2022. There is a wide variation between the high and low estimates. The low for 2021 is at $3.72 and the high at $4.2. Using the average of $4, the P/E at today's closing price is 15.62.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/k/analystestimates?mod=mw_quote_tab
I suspect the results will be better than the current consensus but that is a guess which is what those analysts are doing.
The most recent price decline is in part due to a Credit Suisse downgrade from outperform to neutral with a PT target reduced to $68 from $77. That report is available to Schwab customers and is summarized in a Dow Jones article available to Fidelity customers (a reprint of a Barron's article) I did not find the arguments convincing, but, as with all guesses about the future, the analysis may prove to be right and I may prove to be too optimistic about growth next year.
""Every traditional valuation measure is flashing a warning sign.""
ReplyDeleteSo far I've seen Schiller is high. Crammer is certainly emotive about how speculative things have gotten.
Average regular P/E is high.
What other measures are flashing signs? Are there others?
In other bubbles, there's been an underlying irrationally that's gotten uncovered. In 2000 it was lack of income turned out to matter. In 2008 it was bad loans pushing up house prices artificially. Both were known and speculated for a while in both cases.
There needs to be an underlying problem here. I don't see it yet. A few tech stocks' PEs are so high it'd be 20 years at best to earn it. Am I missing it?
I'm going grocery shopping today. I am going now to try to beat the last min crowds. I hope there are still some frozen veggies on the shelves.
Land:
ReplyDeleteOther stock market valuation measures include:
1. Market Cap Total U.S. Stock Market using the Wilshire 5000 to GDP, sometimes referred to as Buffett's favorite overall stock market valuation measure:
https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/
I have mentioned that this indicator is significantly higher than it was in 2000.
2.Toobin's Q Ratio: This measure was developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin and compares the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of its companies.
The Q ratio is now higher than it was in 2000.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/04/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-october-update
3. Standard Deviations from the average of 4 valuation methods:
This calculation stood at 145% through the end of October, and would be higher now based on the market's move this month. That compares to 147% in 2000 and 73% in 1929. The standard deviation number through October was over 3 for the second time in U.S. stock market history.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/05/is-the-market-still-overvalued
4. Crestmont P/E: "the Crestmont P/E is 146% above its arithmetic mean and at the 100th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric."
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/02/crestmont-market-valuation-update-october-2020
5. S & P 500 Price to Sales Ratio:
Through October, this ratio was at 2.47 compared to about 2 in 2000.
It is also unusual to see the S & P 500 P/E as high as now, with the economy moving out of a recession period, using estimated Non-GAAP earnings for the next 12 months.
The P/E using trailing 12 month GAAP earnings is distorted by the recession but it nonetheless in "extreme bubble" territory using historical data going back to 1871:
https://www.longtermtrends.net/sp500-price-earnings-shiller-pe-ratio/
The Nasdaq to S & P 500 ratio is at 2000 levels:
https://www.longtermtrends.net/nasdaq-vs-sp500/
Valuation measures are not short term trading tools since markets can remain overvalued or in bubble territory for an extended period.
The end result, however, is that future returns will be below normal given the current excessive valuation. When will that period of under performance compared to historical averages start, that is anyone's guess. Maybe it will start next week or maybe it will start when the S & P moves up another few hundred points. But it will happen.
The 50% decline in 2000-2002 IMO was almost entirely the result of an excessive valuation built up during a 18 year long term secular bull market. It took a 50% decline to bring market index valuations back to the upper end of historical norms.
What happened in the S & P 500 index between 2000 and 2013, nothing but an exciting roller coaster ride with chills and thrills galore going nowhere. That same pattern would fit 1966 to 1982.
That's a lot of good data.
DeleteMost striking is that E is down with covid and might go up so the older higher E is worth using... YET not all of the indicators aren't dependent on E or GDP.
Q for instance with company replacement value.
There's a lot here still for me to look at.
I did well in 2000 to 2013, because I was heavily in small caps. You make another interesting point that the 2000 pullback only went to the upper end of historical norms. So it might be wise to buy after a pullback starts, even if it doesn't reach low valuations... I keep picturing that'd it'd be hard to get a 75% pullback that would be actual cheap valuations.
Happy Thanksgiving! Hope it was good even in a covid situation world.
Land: I mentioned earlier that I do not disagree with Grantham and others who maintain the stock market is in bubble territory. As with other past stock markets that have reached that status, the excessive valuations are not uniform and are mostly concentrated in a few hundred large capitalization stocks that institutions buy. There will still be pockets where investors are mispricing a stock using traditional valuation measures.
ReplyDeleteWhile I agree that the market is overvalued, that only dictates how I approach buying and selling now taking into account my dominant capital preservation objective. I still own stocks which was not the case in 1999-2000 when I went to a zero allocation.
The main reason why I still own stocks is that there is no alternative. Cash in MM accounts earn .01% with no prospect of moving higher anytime soon. Central banks will continue their Jihad Against Savers for an extended period, suppressing short and intermediate term fixed income yields below the inflation rate.
And, that belief about the future is a primary reason for the stock bubble. New purchases of fixed income securities mostly lock in negative real rate of returns before taxes. The alternative for someone like me is to keep cash producing negative real rates of return before taxes (and just wait for another meltdown) or to try an earn a positive real return in stocks with some of my cash assets which is the course that I am pursuing now. And, I am using a variety of trading techniques to reduce my risks with those at-risk funds.
In other bubbles, was the overvaluations concentrated too? Or were they at first, but then spread to everything before the crash?
DeleteYou do seem to managing to keep gaining while waiting for the eventual reset.
The lack of alternatives is a unique factor to this bubble. Shiller's takes interest rates into account? That's what makes it so ugh looking that it's that high even with .01% interest on savings accounts?
Land: It is not only the current low interest rates that contribute to the stock market bubble but the consensus expectation that rates will remain low for a very long time. The current FED forecast is that it will continue ZIRP until 2023:
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/fed-picks-its-side-in-inflation-debate-and-sends-market-a-message-no-rate-hikes-for-years.html
And, the expectation is that rate increases off the current zero bound FF rate, when and if they happen, will be measured and subdued.
So artificially reduced interest rates below the inflation rate make stocks more attractive than bonds, but that does not prove IMO that stocks are attractive. Instead, I view stocks as less unattractive than bonds. U.S. and other central bank abnormal monetary policies 12 years after the Near Depression and continuing for many years to come just means that conditions are ripe for the creation of a stock market bubble, which is where we are IMO now.
The stocks responsible for the excessive market multiples will change over time. The ones most responsible for the bubble in 1999-2000 are mostly either no longer around or priced somewhat rationally now. A new generation of stocks have largely supplanted the more dominant crazily priced ones from 2000.
And, when the price was crazy in 2000 and the company is still around, the current price is significantly below the peak price in 2000.
2000
GE: $55+
PFE: $45+
CSCO:$79+
INTC:$74
Then there is another category of stocks where it took more than 10 years for earnings to grow sufficiently that the price could top the 1999 or 2000 highs.
What happens during the bubble phase is that the current price ends up including all rationally derived potential for future appreciation based on optimistic forecasts.
And, when the forecasts were too optimistic, as with CISCO in 2000, the price may take decades to reach the peak price achieved during the bubble-if ever.
By focusing on dividend stocks that are reasonably priced based on trailing GAAP earnings and a reasonable forecast for the next 12 months, I simply reduce the possible losses associated with a major 2000-2002 valuation reset for the market. Those valuation resets take just about everything down.
So it's more than low rates but the whole environment of zirp forever.
DeleteBubbles burst when the underlying condition that's caused them has changed. In 2000 it was realization that earnings matter. In 2008 it was realization that it was all a corrupt house of cards. This time the condition, low interest rates, hasn't budged. That says the bubble will keep growing until the first consistent hint of rates going up (inflation, gov't changing policy.) If it's because the economy recovers, then rates going up won't be a reason to sell out of stocks.
I suppose by that logic, I should buy into the bubble and go with the ride.
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The info on what happens through the crash and post-crash cycle is interesting.
I got lucky and was largely in small caps post 2008, so I saw some growth.
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I was trying to ask about breath and timing.
In 2000 the bubble was broad before the crash. Even old stodgy stocks had flying high PEs.
But when the bubble started, was the breath wide all along? Or did the bubble start in the tech. Then spread to everything else. Before the crash?
Currently the bubble has limited breath. So would that indicate that it's not near time for a burst yet? Instead it will take a while for the bubble to spread to more breath. Once it has, that's when it's ripe?
Or have some bubbles burst before getting to a good breath.
Or am I mistaken in thinking the breath is not yet there in this bubble, and in fact this is a pretty broad bubble.
I wasn't aware of the breath in 2008 enough to have any idea. I was too busy shopping for but not buying a house because "something wasn't right."
Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd. ADR (KC)
ReplyDelete$40.23 +$3.47 +9.44%
Last Updated: Nov 27, 2020 at 11:41 a.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/kc
I own KC as a Lottery Ticket. I did not see anything specific today that would satisfactorily explain this latest price pop.
There were two articles published today at SA which are not yet behind a paywall:
SA articles IMO would not influence large investors, but may have some impact on small investors temporarily and at the margins.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4391739-kingsoft-cloud-reasonably-priced-chinese-cloud-services-play
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4391766-kingsoft-cloud-buying-ahead-of-short-and-long-term-drivers
The Nomura analyst reaffirmed a buy rating on 11/22 with a $49 price target.
I did pare this morning another Lotto by selling my highest cost shares in RIGL:
Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc (RIGL)
$3.07 +$.1401 +4.78%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/rigl
That leaves me with a 100 share lot bought at $1.71 (9/26/19).
As previously discussed, there is a potential kicker in that stock that will keep me involved for now. RIGL's approved drug TAVALISSE for the treatment of thrombocytopenia (low blood platelets)is currently undergoing a trial for treating Covid patients.
https://www.pharmaceutical-business-review.com/news/rigel-covid-19-trial-with-fostamatinib/
Congratulations! Maybe some inside information got leaked out just enough to trigger some buying on Kingsoft.
DeleteInteresting on a drug for low platelets. Possibility once approved on that, it will gain market share for use in cancers than it's had before... There seems to be post covid need for PT and rehab. I don't know of a particular stock related.
65% through Mary Trump's book. Wish the key parts could be redacted into a colorful play or article... so it could be shown to borderline trumpites. Nothing works on them, but she does explain clearly how he has no business acumen.
ReplyDeleteNews to me was that his sister was a political favor, didn't earn her appointment without aid.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/11/bcbp-bmoprs-cio-dbx-ddd-exg-fdus-glq.html