Economy:
The government's first estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter was 1.1%. Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Personal consumption expenditures increased at a 3.7% annual rate, up from 1% in the 2022 4th quarter:
I would not draw any negative conclusions about the economy weakening in the first quarter given the jobs numbers and the first estimate for consumer spending during the quarter. The market rallied strongly after the release, though part of the rise may have been due to META's earnings report. Meta Platforms (META) Q1 Earnings Beat, Revenues Rise Y/Y - April 27, 2023 - Zacks.com
The main GDP drags were residential investment and some business spending particularly on equipment.
PCE Price Indexes: The core PCE price remains high and well above the FED's target of 2% annual growth. Total PCE prices declined from a 5.1% annually rate through February to 4.2%.
Personal Income and Outlays, March 2023 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
As shown in the preceding table, personal consumption expenditures leveled off in February and March after surging in January.
It is only a question of time before the republicans cause a U.S. debt default and permanently impair the U.S. Dollars status as the international reserve currency. Janus Yellen is right when she said that a default will be catastrophic. Yellen Says US Default Would Cause an 'Economic Catastrophe' - YouTube
Fitch has warned that it may downgrade U.S. debt even if the latest Republican extortion attempt results in a debt limit increase. The reason given was the constant brinkmanship, originating solely from republicans, calls into question the government's reliability to pay its bills when due. America's credit rating could get downgraded even if a default is avoided, Fitch Ratings warns S&P downgraded U.S. debt one notch back in 2011 after the republicans came within two days of causing a default.
It looks like First Republic Bank is about to be seized by the FDIC. This will be the third mid-size bank failure this year caused, not by bad loans, but by deposit runs. FRC closed at $3.51 yesterday, down 43.2% and declined another 33.62% in after hours trading. The FRC 52 week high was at $171.09. Federal officials are preparing to put ailing First Republic Bank into RECEIVERSHIP, sources claim | Daily Mail Online At least two banks are apparently bidding for the assets once the FDIC seizes the bank. JPMorgan, PNC bidding to by First Republic Bank after FDIC takeover FRC has several equity preferred stocks that will become worthless after a seizure. I have never owned the common or the preferred shares.
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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills: $2,000 in principal amount (I am placing more emphasis on buying FDIC insured CDs until the debt limit issue is resolved)
Corporate Bonds: $6,000 in principal amount
CDs: $16,000
Net Outflow Common Stocks: -$450.26
(consisting of $1,167.54 in proceeds minus $717.29 in purchases)
Outflow Stock CEF: -$192.02 (25 shares of EXG)
Net Outflow Common Stocks and Stock Funds: -$642.28
Weighted Average Yield Common Stock Purchases: 6.38% (the general approach is to exceed 5% per week).
Leveraged CEF Bond Fund: +$39.24 (yield at 12.23%, substantial ROC support)
REIT Equity Preferred Stocks: +$360.75 (Yield at 9.18% for 20 shares purchased)
2023 Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$31,393,09 (outflow is going into MM funds, CDs, corporate bonds and treasury bills)
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Trump and His Anti-Democracy Party:
North Carolina Supreme Court -- under new GOP control -- reverses rulings that struck down partisan gerrymanders by Republican lawmakers The anti-democracy party now controls the republican legislatures and the state Supreme Courts in several states including North Carolina. The general goal for the NC GOP is to win 80%+ of the congressional seats with about 50% of the vote, effectively disenfrancing a few million voters in congressional elections.
NBC News poll: Nearly 70% of GOP voters stand behind Trump amid indictment, investigations
Donald Trump embraces Jan. 6 defendant who wants Pence executed
Trump ‘raped me’: E. Jean Carroll testifies about alleged attack
Trump Was At A Meeting Where Loyalists Discussed Plans To Break Into Voting Machines - TPM
Amid Expulsion Vote In House, Tennessee Senate Quietly Names April ‘Confederate History Month’; How conditions went from bad to worse for the Tennessee GOP
Ohio Republican launches Senate campaign by demanding reparations for white people - Alternet.org
When GOP Attorneys General Embraced Jan 6, Corporate Funders Fled. Now They’re Back.
The House republican budget proposal, which passed 217-215 with no democrat votes, would require massive cut in non-defense spending. Budget Caps Are Budget Cuts - Center for American Progress (estimated at an immediate 31% cut to non-defense discretionary spending). 4 republicans voted no, wanting deeper spending cuts. (Matt Gaetz, Andy Biggs, Ken Buck and Tim Burchett of Tennessee, all of whom signed the Texas Supreme Court petition requesting that the Court throw out the certified election results in 4 states won by Biden and authorize the republican controlled legislatures in those states to decide who won)
There are no moderates among the House republicans-no one is even remotely close. The GOP is not a conservative party but its antithesis.
The GOP's plan calls for freezing discretionary federal spending at 2022 fiscal levels (excluding defense and veterans benefits) and then increasing spending by 1% per year thereafter for 9 years. What's in the Republican debt limit bill? The proposal, explained-The Washington Post The budget plan also calls for the repeal of most the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act energy and climate tax credits and further seeks to rescind the increased funding for the IRS.
In exchange for the democrats agreeing to that proposal, the republicans will agree to increase the debt limit by $1.5 trillion or until March 31, 2024, whichever occurs first.
The House republicans will then refuse to raise the debt limit again, using their tiny vote majority in the House, unless the democrats implement more policy changes that republicans want but could not otherwise implement through following a democratic process. Speaker McCarthy is selling the short time limit as providing an opportunity to cut further early next year. How the House voted on Kevin McCarthy’s debt ceiling bill - Washington Post
Perhaps in a dream world, there will be 1 House Republican who will campaign in 2024 on voting for a 30%+ budget cut in non-defense discretionary spending, explaining honestly and in detail how the cuts will impact his or her constituents. That will never happen of course. It would require them to be forthright.
DeSantis says state lawmakers will 'formally nullify' Disney's attempt to thwart state takeover; Disney sues Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over political retaliation - The Washington Post The Supreme Court has made it clear that corporations have First Amendment rights. Neither a state or Federal Government can punish the exercise of protected speech which is what DeSantis and his Florida authoritarians have done and threaten to do again. While DeSantis denies that he is using the state's power to punish Disney for exercising its constitutional rights, it is clear to me that the Florida republicans are using that power to punish speech that they disfavor and that is straight out of the authoritarian playbook.
Two of Steve Bannon's associates sentenced to prison in border wall scheme Donald gave Bannon a pardon for his unswerving political support.
A second firm hired by Trump campaign found no evidence of election fraud - The Washington Post; Trump secretly hired two firms for more than $1.35 million to find 2020 voter fraud — they couldn’t - Raw Story - Celebrating 19 Years of Independent Journalism This will not deter Demagogue Don from claiming that the election was stolen from him.
Trump is racking up GOP endorsements, even amid criminal jeopardy - The Washington Post Many of the Florida GOP representatives have endorsed Donald, spurning DeSantis who is a sanctimonious authoritarian and an influential member of the American Taliban party.
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Putin and His Servile Orcs:
Russia is and will always be a terrorist state willing to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity on a daily basis. Russians are the Nazis in Ukraine.
The Orcs targeted a cruise missile at an apartment complex in Uman, Ukraine killing civilians. CNN witnessed bodies being removed from the destroyed apartment building. Deadly Russian air strike hits Ukrainian apartment building; CNN on scene after fatal missile strike on apartment building | CNN
Russia is using violence to implement its objectives in African countries.
As Russia's Wagner Group plots against Chad, Western concerns mount - The Washington Post
Russia's Wagner Group mercenaries linked to Sudan's warring generals - The Washington Post
Biden's delay in providing Abrams tanks to Ukraine is inexcusable.
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1. Small Ball Purchases:
A. Added to GOODN- Bought 5 at $18.7; 5 at $18.3; 5 at $17.85; 5 at $17.3 -Schwab Taxable Account:
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. 6.625% Preferred Series E
Last Discussed: Item # 5.B. Bought 10 GOODN at $19.2 in Schwab Taxable Account (11/8/22 Post)
Average Cost per share: $18.43 (30 shares)
Yield at AC = 8.99%
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, a subcategory of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Issuer: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD) -Externally Managed Equity REIT. This REIT is primarily a net lease REIT.
Website: Gladstone Commercial Corporation
The issuer cut its monthly common share dividend from $.1254 per share to $.10 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment. Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha The reason given was to "increase retained capital in anticipation of further economic headwinds." SEC Filed Press Release
From the perspective of a Gladstone REIT preferred stock owner, cutting the common share dividend is a positive development since the common share dividend payout was excessive given the current core FFO per share. In the 2022 4th quarter, FFO per share was reported at $.34, down from $.44 in the 2021 4th quarter. Report for the Q/E 12/31/22 For as long as a cash dividend is paid on the common shares, the preferred stock dividend has to be paid in full.
Empty Offices Tanked This REIT's Dividend in 2022 -- Now It's Focusing on Industrial Properties-The Motley Fool Industrial properties were at 56% of annualized straight line rent as of 12/31/22, GOOD Investor Presentation.pdf at p. 11.
While lease renewals on office properties are problematic, I would characterize the primary problems as debt related, which includes too much debt priced at spreads to SOFR, costs to hedge that debt, and the likely higher refinancing costs for maturing fixed coupon mortgages (10-K at page 77, and GOOD Investor Presentation at page 21)
Occupancy was reported at 95.9% as of 2/22/23, 10-K at page 7
Security: REIT Equity Preferred Stock (senior only to common stock in the capital structure)
Par Value: $25 (public offering at $25 in September 2019)
This security is subject to an issuer ATM program.
Coupon: 6.625% paid on the $25 par value
Dividends: Paid monthly, non-qualified and cumulative
Dividend Rate: Monthly at $.138021 per share
GOODN Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Ex Dividend: 4/20/21
Stopper Clause: Standard
Maturity: Potentially perpetual, unless issuer exercises optional redemption right.
Optional Redemption: On or after 10/4/24 (standard 5 years after IPO)
B. Added to ICMB - Bought 5 at $3.5:
Quote: Investcorp Credit Management BDC Inc. Overview
Cost: $17.5
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket, deservedly hated BDC.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Added to ICMB - Bought 5 at $3.73 (4/8/23 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc. Announces Financial Results for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2022, and Quarterly and Supplemental Distributions
New Average Cost per share: $4.92 (117+ shares)
Regular Dividend: Quarterly at $.13 per share ($.52 annually)
Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc. (ICMB) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC = 10.57% (regular dividend only)
C. Bought 10 OLP at $21.85:
This is my first purchase.
2022 Annual Report (property list starts at page 25; debt discussion starts at pp. F-25, most of the debt is fixed coupon mortgage debt)
Tenants as of 12/31/22:
Most of the leases are net leases.
2020-2022 Property Sales: The company has reduced its exposure to retail properties.
2021-2022 Acquisitions: The REIT bought industrial properties in 2022.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.45 ($1.8 annually), last raised from $.43 effective for the 2017 4th quarter payment.
One Liberty Properties, Inc. (OLP) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $21.85: 8.24%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/24/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23): SEC Filing
FFO per share: $.71
Adjusted FFO per share: $.52, up from $.51 in the 2021 4th quarter
The main deduction from FFO per share was to remove a one time payment of $.22 per share from a ground lease tenant that resulted from a litigation settlement involving an apartment complex in Beechwood, Ohio. The Vue - Apartments in Beachwood, OH
Occupancy: 99.8% as of 12/31/22, p. 24 Annual Report
Mortgage Debt: On 67 of 117 properties
2022 Weighted Average Mortgage Interest Rate: 4.14%
Weighted average term of mortgage debt as of 12/31/22: 6.5 years, p. 3 Annual Report.
2022 Weighted Average Principal Amount Line of Credit: $16.222M
2022 Weighted Average Interest Rate Line of Credit: 3.42%, up from 1.86% in 2021.
2022 AFFO per share: $1.98, up from $1.95 in 2021
2022 Dividends per share: $1.8 per share
"In February 2023, the Company sold a property in Hauppauge, New York for $4.2 million. The Company anticipates recognizing a net gain on sale of real estate of approximately $1.5 million during the three months ending March 31, 2023. This property generated $220,000 of rental income in 2022."
Problem Properties: Described at pp. 33-35, Annual Report.
D. Bought 5 BWG at $7.85:
Quote: Brandywine GLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund Inc. Overview - A Leveraged Bond CEF
Investment category: Monthly Income Generation.
Brandywine Global Income Opportunities Fund Inc. - SEC Filed Annual Report for the period ending 10/31/22 (floating rate leverage discussed at pages 44-45)
SEC Filed - Holdings as of 1/31/23
Leveraged: Yes, substantial.
Credit Quality as of 3/31/23: Significant Junk Exposure
Average cost per share: $9.61 (83+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.08 per share (recent heavy ROC support), reduced from $.09 effective for the April 2023 monthly payment.
BWG Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
The dividend probably needed to be cut earlier. Leveraged bond CEFs have suffered the infamous Double Whammy, as leverage costs have increased as the value of the bonds bought with borrowed money have gone down. The net interest spreads have contracted significantly compared to 2021, or disappeared entirely, causing less income generation through leverage. The situation may stabilize with the rally in bonds and a halt in FF rate increases after the May 2023 hike.
I am reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at New AC: 9.99%
Next Ex Dividend: 5/22/23
Data Date of 4/24/23 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $9.24
Closing Market Price: $7.85
Discount: -15.04%
3 Year Average Discount: 11.23%
Sourced: BWG - CEF Connect
Maximum Position: 200 shares.
E. Bought 5 BNL at $15.77:
Quote: Broadstone Net Lease Inc. (BNL)
Cost: $78.85
Last Discussed: Item # 1.K. Started BNL-Bought 10 at $16.29 (3/25/23 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
New average cost per share: $16.12 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.275 per share ($1.1 annually)
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (BNL) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC = 6.82%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/30/23 (owned 10 as of)
F. Added 3 PDM at $6.37; 3 at $6.14:
Quote: Piedmont Office Realty Trust Inc. Cl A (PDM)-Office REIT
Cost $37.53
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Average cost per share: $10.03 (123+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share ($.84 annually)
Yield at New AC = 8.37%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/23/23
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Added to PDM - Bought 5 at $7.03; 5 at $6.52 (3/25/23 Post)
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 3.C. Added 5 PDM at $10.3 (2/20/23 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
PDM is scheduled to release its first quarter report next Monday.
Office REIT stocks are currently well below the lowest price levels hit during March 2020, and many stock prices are below the lowest prices hit in March 2009.
PDM prices in March 2020:
The consensus opinion is that Office REITs will not recover from the work from home trend and their fate will be worse than shopping malls.
Website: Home - Piedmont Office Realty Trust
Pictures of Office Properties
New York (1 at 60 Broad Street)
G. Added to TSLX - Bought 1 at $17.87:
Quote: Sixth Street Specialty Lending Inc. (TSLX)
Management: External
2022 Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 30 and ends at page 58; summary list of investments starts at page F-6)
5 year Financial Summary:
Net asset value was relatively stable.
Average cost per share: $18.41 (22+ shares)
Regular Dividend: Quarterly at $.46 per share ($1.84 annually)
A special dividend of $.09 per share was paid in the first quarter.
Yield at New AC: 10% (regular only)
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Added to TSLX - Bought 5 at $18.3; 5 at $18.1 (12/13/22 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/22): SEC Filing
Net asset value per share: $16.48
NII per share: $.65, adjusted to $.64 to account for capital gain incentive fee.
Debt at Floating Rates: 98.9%
Weighted average yield of debt investments (amortised cost): 13.4%
"As of December 31, 2022, the Company’s portfolio based on fair value consisted of 90.3% first-lien debt investments, 1.5% second-lien debt investments, 1.8% structured credit investments, 0.4% mezzanine debt investments, and 6.0% equity and other investments."
781 portfolio companies
"As of December 31, 2022, non-accrual investments represented less than 0.01% of the portfolio at fair value."
Aggregate fair value of investments as of 12/31/22: $2.7879B.
H. Added to THFF - Bought 2 at $34; 3 at $32.9:
Quote: First Financial Corp. (Indiana)
"First Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:THFF) is the holding company for First Financial Bank N.A. First Financial Bank N.A., the fifth oldest national bank in the United States, operates 71 banking centers in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee."
Cost: $166.7
THFF Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (2023 E.P.S. consensus at $5.05)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 2.K. Added to THFF - Bought 3 at $43.96 (4/7/22 Post); Item # 1.A. Started THFF - Bought 5 at $45.7; 2 at $45.12; 3 at $44.7 2 at $44.35 (1/22/22 Post)
5 Year Financial Data Summary:
The 2022 dividend payout ratio was just 21.68%.
Dividend: Semiannual
THFF Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last 2 SemiAnnual Dividends Per Share: $1.28
Average cost per share: $42.01 (20 shares)
Yield at New AC:
Last Ex Dividend: 1/5/23
The next semiannual dividend goes ex in June.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filing
E.P.S. $1.33
Consensus at $1.246 per Fidelity.
NIM: 3.96%, up from 3.16% in the 2022 1st Q.
Efficiency Ratio: 58.73%
NPL Ratio: .39%
Coverage Ratio: 328.06% (allowance for credit losses to NPLs)
Charge off ratio: .26%
ROE: 13.1%
Tangible Book Value per share: $34.16
"Total deposits were $4.17 billion as of March 31, 2023, compared to $4.40 billion as of March 31, 2022. On a linked quarter basis, total deposits decreased $203.5 million, or 4.66% from $4.37 billion."
"Average total deposits for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, were $4.25 billion versus $4.43 billion as of March 31, 2022."
Owned Securities:
Net unrealized loss at $168.145M as of 12/31/22 |
Average Deposits by year:
P. 42 |
Timed Deposits exceeding $250,000 = $50.6M, page 80.
I. Added to CVBF - Bought 3 at $14.81:
Quote: CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF)
CVBF Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (2023 consensus E.P.S. currently at $1.78)
Cost: $44.43
Last Discussed: Item # 2.I. Added to CVBF - Bought 2 at $15.12 (4/22/23 Post)
Average cost per share: $15.65 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share
Yield at new AC: 5.11%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/4/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filing
Comparisons are to the 2022 first quarter.
E.P.S. = $.42, up from $.31
Consensus Estimate at $.44
NIM: 3.45%, up from 2.9%
Efficiency Ratio: 39.5%, down from 46.93%
NPL Ratio: .07%
NPA Ratio: .04%
Coverage Ratio: 1,401.46%
ROA: 1.47%, up from 1.06%
ROTE: 20.59%, up from 13.08%.
Tangible Book Value per share:
"At March 31, 2023, investment securities available-for-sale (“AFS”) totaled $3.20 billion, inclusive of a pre-tax net unrealized loss of $459.7 million"
Held to Maturity Securities: $2.54B (no information on unrealized loss in the press release)
Non-interest bearing deposits: 63.92% of the total which is the highest that I have seen and recall.
My interest rate risk management grade remains a C. Item # 1.D. If I did not have such an unfavorable opinion, I would be buying more shares.
"Total loans and leases, at amortized cost, of $8.94 billion at March 31, 2023, decreased by $136.9 million, or 1.51%, from December 31, 2022. After adjusting for seasonality of dairy and livestock and PPP loans, our core loans declined by $6.5 million, or 0.07%, from the end of the fourth quarter."
J. Added to MBWM - Bought 3 at $27.6:
Quote: Mercantile Bank Corp.
Cost: $82.8
MBWM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New Average Cost per share: $29.25 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.33 per share ($1.32 annually)
Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC = 4.51%
Next Ex Dividend: 6/1/23
Last Discussed: Item # 2.H. Added 2 MBWM at $28.75; 5 at $28.6 (4/22/23 Post) I discussed the 2023 first quarter earnings report in that post. SEC Filing I viewed the report favorably.
K. Added to STBA - Bought 2 at $26.45:
Quote: S&T Bancorp Inc. (STBA)
Cost: $52.9
STBA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 2.E. Added 5 STBA at $28.8; 2 at $27.72; 3 at $27.6 (4/22/23 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in my last post. SEC Filing and SEC Filed Slide Presentation
Based on the last earnings report, which I viewed positively, I do not believe the STBA stock price decline occurring after that release to be justified. However, regional bank stocks are in a major downtrend largely caused by the recent collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, as well as the well publicized problems of First Republic. My adds are consequently extremely cautious.
New Average cost per share: $30.25 (22 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.32 per share ($1.28 annually)
S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 4.23%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/9/23
Dividend Payout Ratio (2023 1st quarter): 31.37%
I do not have access to any analyst reports.
2. CDs - FDIC Insured: $16,000
Payments for these CD purchases were sourced from matured T Bills, with the proceeds paid into my Schwab sweep account that has a .45% yield.
A. Bought 2 HTLF 5% CDs Maturing on 10/30/23:
Operating subsidiary of the bank holding company Heartland Financial USA Inc. (HTLF)
B. Bought 2 M&T Bank 5% CDs Maturing on 4/26/24:
YTM at Total Cost: 5.349%
4. Treasury Bills:
A. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at 4/24/23 Auction:
Matures on 10/26/23
In the event the republicans cause a U.S. government debt default, causing permanent damage to the U.S. credit rating, I would anticipate that principal and interest payments will resume before this bill matures.
182 Day Bill
Interest: $48.94
Investment Rate: 5.044%
+$497.61 |
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.