AMCX, COHU, DNNGY, ED, FAN, HCMLY, IP, PAY, THFF, TUP, VKTK, VTRS, VZ

Economy: 

U.S. consumer sentiment falls close to 10-year low on inflation and omicron worries - MarketWatch citing Surveys of Consumers

Empire State survey of New York economy turns negative for first time in a year and a half - MarketWatch The new orders component was reported at -5, down 32 points from the prior month. The federal reserve regional surveys use zero as a baseline for contraction and expansion. Empire State Manufacturing Survey (overview) - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

Sourced from Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Inflation: Jamie Dimon says CEOs `shouldn't be crybabies about it'

Goldman CEO says he sees 'real wage inflation everywhere' after 33% jump in pay expenses GS compensation expenses increased by 33% to $17.7B, up $4.4B. Just absurd. 

During the hyperinflation days of the Weimar Republic, a photographer captured a man running with a wheelbarrow filled with German Marks. He wanted to reach the baker before the price of bread went up.  

When discarding items from a drawer full of old stuff long forgotten, I came across a bill from a private university that covered my first semester in the 1969-1970 school year. The total came to $1,564 which included tuition, a dorm room,  2 meals per day, and health insurance.

Except of an All-In Bill for a Semester

The one semester tuition component was $1,054. The tuition is currently at about $59,000 for a full year or $29,500 a semester which translates to a 2,699% increase. Percentage Increase Calculator If I increased my first semester tuition by the CPI rate, the inflation adjusted number as of December 2021 would be $8,254.42 or only about 28% of the actual amount. CPI Inflation Calculator.

China's 2021 GDP Up 8.1% Last Year The 4th quarter number slowed to +4% compared to the 2020 4th quarter. 

More supply chain problems will mean inflation stays high - The Washington Post

Oil hits seven-year high as Houthi attack on UAE rattles regional tensions (1/18/22)(UAE is the 7th largest oil producer)

++++

Markets and Market Commentary:

Closing Prices Volatility Indexes on 1/20/22: 

S & P 500  Volatility (^VIX) at 25.59, up 1.74 or 7.3%

Russell 2000 Volatility (^RVX): 33.01 +1.45 or 4.59%

NASDAQ 100 Volatility (^VXN): 30.61 +1.59 or 5.48% 

‘Good luck! We’ll all need it’: U.S. market approaches end of ‘superbubble,’ says Jeremy Grantham - MarketWatch, citing Grantham's article that can be found here: Let The Wild Rumpus Begin

The participants in Barron's Roundtable expect interest rates to remain low notwithstanding the anticipated FED rate hikes this year, the end of QE, and the possible shrinkage in the FED's $9 trillion dollar balance sheet. How Will the Stock Market Do in 2022? Expect a Tough Year but Lots of Opportunities | Barron’s Roundtable | Barron's Futures contracts are predicting that the 10 year treasury yield will gradually rise to 2.45% by the 2023 4th quarter. 

The panelists also expect inflation to cool and decline this year from what is viewed as current peak levels. The panelists, however, failed to predict the rise in inflation last year when Barron's published the Roundtable discussion last January. 

Scott Black, one of the panelists, noted that a 1% increase in interest rates will increase the federal government's interest payments by about $290B. He correctly notes that the FED has a powerful incentive to cap interest rates given the government's rapidly increasing debt number which will soon surpass $30 trillion. Government - Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)

Rising interest rates could keep a choke hold on tech and growth stocks

+++++ 

U.S. Charges Russia Sent Saboteurs Into Ukraine to Create Pretext for Invasion - The New York Times; First on CNN: US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of Ukraine Russia will gain nothing other than a loss of Russian money and lives from invading Ukraine. The likely western economic sanctions will add to Russia's woes and increase its self-inflicted wounds and isolation. Western European countries may even become more serious about significantly beefing up their military spending, with more forces deployed near the Russian border to deter invasion.  Microsoft discovers destructive malware on several Ukrainian government agency networks - The Washington Post  

Ohio Supreme Court Strikes Down Republican Gerrymander of Map - The New York Times The general idea was to grant republicans 12 out of the 15 congressional seats (80%), even though republicans win only about 55% of the statewide vote. The Republican Chief Justice "Maureen O’Connor, a Republican, joined three Democratic justices to overturn the maps." 

Trump Claims the FBI was Behind the 1/6/21 Attack on the  Capital 

Arizona Rally: Trump Claims COVID-19 Treatment Is Anti-White People (Trump: "The left is now rationing life-saving therapeutics based on race, discriminating against and denigrating, just denigrating white people to determine who lives and who dies."); MAGA hats and QAnon: Inside Trump’s first rally of 2022 - POLITICO; Bannon Says Trump Arizona Rally Precursor to Overturning 2020 Election  

Opinion | Trump’s Arizona election project shows the danger to American democracy - The Washington Post Republicans running for Arizona's Governor and Secretary of State are even more authoritarian than Donald. For example, the Republican Kari Lake, who is currently leading the polls, says that Katie Hobbs, the current Secretary of State, a Democrat, needs to be put in jail. She also stated emphatically that she would not have certified Biden as the winner in Arizona.

The guy running as a Republican for Arizona's Secretary of State, Mark Finchin, is a QAnon conspiracy theorist and self-proclaimed members of Oath Keepers who attended the 1/6 Trump "rally" in Washington. Finchen is currently an Arizona state representative. He told an interviewer that a lot of politicians are involved in a pedophile network. Finchin has been endorsed by Trump. Donald Trump endorses Mark Finchem for Arizona secretary of state That should surprise no one. (Finchin, referring to what happened on 1/6, made this statement: "What happens when the People feel they have been ignored, and Congress refuses to acknowledge rampant fraud.")

If Trump has his way, there is no way that Arizona will allow a Democrat to win a statewide office or even a close congressional race currently held by a Democrat, irrespective of the vote count and subsequent audits showing the Democrat won. ‘Circus act of characters’ support Trump at AZ rally - YouTube

Meet the MAGA Extremist Who Might Be Arizona’s Next Governor | The New Republic; 

Kari Lake: Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate appears with Nazi sympathizer and QAnon-linked activists at campaign events;  

KariLake called for @SecretaryHobbs to be imprisoned over fictional election rigging claims. “Frankly, I think she should be locked up.” Crowd starts “lock her up” chant. Lake says, “I agree.” AZGOV  Twitter (video embedded);

Trump's Arizona Gov. Pick Says She Would Not Have Certified 2020 Election 

N.Y. Attorney General Outlines Pattern of Possible Fraud at Trump Business - The New York Times The filing is 115 pages and can be accessed here: Read Letitia James’s new court filing - The New York Times

As Giuliani coordinated plan for Trump electoral votes in states Biden won, some electors balked - The Washington Post Just another example of the GOP's bona fides as an Anti-Democracy party. 

++++

1. Small Ball: 

I am not doing much. I  have been a net seller of stock, have not reinvested most interest and dividends paid in cash that I have received, and none of the principal payments made for redeemed bonds and CDs.  

A. Started THFF-Bought 5 at $45.7; 2 at $45.12; 3 at $44.7; 2 at $44.35:

This is a new name for me. The market cap at the $44.3 closing price today is about $580M. 

Quote: First Financial Corp. (Indiana) 

Through its operating subsidiary First Financial Bank, N.A. THFF, a bank holding company, operates 81 branches in Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky. Another subsidiary has 1 branch located in Terre Haute. THFF has or is in the process of merging that bank into First Financial Bank.   

THFF is in the process of acquiring Hancorp Bancorp and Trust Company that operates throughout western Kentucky with offices located in Hancock, Breckinridge, Hopkins and Warren Counties.  First Financial Corporation to Acquire Hancock Bancorp, Inc. 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 

SEC Filings 

THFF Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch The current average E.P.S. estimates are for $4.5 this year and falling to $4.15 this year. This trend is fairly common among small regional banks as analyst anticipate less income from selling mortgages, a loss of fees from the Paycheck Protection Program and no meaningful help on NIM expansion. 

So far, investors have been disappointed by regional bank 4th quarter earnings reports. THFF has not yet reported. 

Dividend: Semiannual

The regular semiannual dividend is $.53 per share, last raised from $.52 effective for the 2020 third quarter. 

First Financial Corporation Declares Semi-Annual Dividend This dividend included a $.10 per share "special" dividend. 

Last 2 Dividends per share excluding special dividends = $1.06

Last 2 Dividends per share with special dividends = $1.16

Average cost per share:  $45.13 ( 12 shares)

Yield at $45. (regular only) =  2.35%, rounded up

Last Ex Dividend: 1/6/22. I bought 5 shares shortly before the ex dividend date. My starting dividend yield is below what I prefer when buying a regional bank stock. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21):  SEC Filed Press Release 

Net Income = $16M

E.P.S. = $1.24, up from $1.02 in the 2020 third quarter

NIM: 3.22%, down from 3.99% in the 2020 third quarter 

Efficiency Ratio = 59.1% (viewed as Okay as being below 60%)

NPL Ratio = .79%

Charge off ratio = .04% 

ROA = 1.34%

ROE = 10.75%

Tangible Book Value per share  = $39.38  (book value at $46.22) 

Capital Ratios: Currently good

B. Sold 4 PAY at $34.6 and 5 at $35.05: 

Quote:  Paymentus Holdings

Investment category: Lottery Ticket Basket

Website: Powering the Next Generation of Electronic Bill Payments

PAY SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21

IPO Prospectus (offered at $21 last May)

Paymentus Holdings Inc Profile-Reuters

Profit Snapshots: $58.04

I still own 8 shares with an average cost of $30.14 per share. Item # 1.E. Added to PAY-Bought 1 at $25.25; 1 at $22.23  (9/24/21 Post)(discussed the 2021 second quarter report in that post); Item # 2.I. Added to PAY-Bought 1 at $31; 1 at $30.5; 1 at $29 (8/5/21 Post); Item # 1.G. Bought 1 PAY at $35; 1 at $34.5; 1 at $33 (7/15/21 Post) If I buy more shares it will be in that account at a price below my last purchase of $22.23. The highest cost 3 shares will likely be sold at greater than $35.  

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release

"Net income was $0.4 million and GAAP earnings per share was $0.0. Non-GAAP net income was $1.4 million and Non-GAAP earnings per share was $0.01." The non-GAAP number excludes only "amortization of acquisition-related intangibles."

"Processed 70.6 million transactions, an increase of 44.9% from the third quarter of 2020."

"Revenue was $101.7 million, an increase of 30.3% from the third quarter of 2020."

Cash at $177.5M as of 9/30/21

While the non-GAAP income number does not exclude share based compensation, the adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA margin do:

Free cash = $4.724M

I do not have access to any brokerage reports. On 12/10/21, Goldman Sachs started PAY with a buy rating and a $41 PT. Paymentus snags new Buy rating at Goldman-Seeking Alpha

C. Added to VZ -Bought 1 at $52.26-Schwab Account: 

Quote: Verizon Communications Inc.

VZ Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

VZ SEC Filings

VZ 2020 Annual Report

Investment Category: Bond Substitute with a flavor of dividend growth. 

The U.S. wireless carriers hit a snag in their rollout of C-band spectrum near airports. Major U.S. airline CEOs warn 5G could ground some planes, wreak havoc  The carriers agreed to delay rollout around some airports. AT&T delays 5G rollout near some airports after airlines warned of cancellations Some foreign carriers have cancelled service using Boeing 777 airplanes due to potential C-Band interference with the altimeters which some aviation experts and Boeing claim would result in false altitude readings. U.S. FAA clears 45% of commercial plane fleet after 5G deployed | Reuters; 5G: Could new cell phone networks interfere with US airlines? | New Scientist It appears that the solutions are to turn off cell phone towers within two miles of an airport, which is a poor long term solution, or for airlines to replace their altimeters in certain Boeing and Airbus planes. 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.A. Added to VZ in Fidelity Account-Bought 5 at $54.12; 2 at $52.73; 3 at $52.32; 2 at $51.56; 5 at $50.95 (10/29/21 Post) 

I discussed the last earnings report in that post. Verizon (VZ) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

I own 20+ shares in my Fidelity taxable account with an AC of $53.14. I am reinvesting the dividend in that account. 

Average cost per share Schwab Taxable account: $53.11 ( 5 shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.64 per share ($2.56 annually), last raised from $.6275 effective for the 2021 4th quarter payment. 

Yield at AC = 4.82%

Last Ex Dividend: 1/7/22 (owned all as of) 

Goal: Dividends + an annualized 2%+ on the shares. The highest cost lots will be sold into strength when and if that occurs. The consider to pare range for me is between $56 to $60, tilting more to the bottom of that range.  

D. Added to FAN-Bought 3 at $20.12: 

Quote: First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF Overview

Sponsor's website: First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF (FAN)

Investment Categories: Feel Good about owning alternative energy stocks/Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket 

The Lotto Ticket classification is based primarily on valuation concerns, the bear market trend in this sector, and the lack of dividend support. The expense ratio is high as well. The inception price was $30 per share (6/16/2008). The sponsor claims that the weighted P/E ratio was 24.99 as of 12/31/21 with a price to cash flow of 12.2. I do not know whether the P/E ratio calculation is based on GAAP TTM earnings or estimated forward non-GAAP earnings. 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.K. Bought 2 FAN at $21.02 (11/18/21) 

Expense Ratio = .67% after 1/31/22, .6% currently. 

Holdings = 48

Holdings weighted at over 1% as of 1/14/22: 

The holdings include utility companies that produce electricity from alternative energy sources.  

Of the holdings included in the previous snapshot, I currently own  Duke Energy (DUK), my third largest weighting in the utility sector) and Oersted A/S ADR (DNNGY) which is discussed in Item # 1.H. below.  

E. Added to AMCX-Bought 5 at $34.55: 

Quote: AMC Networks Inc. Cl A (AMCX)

AMCX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

AMCX SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21

Website: AMC Networks Inc.

AMC Networks is not the same company as the frequent meme stock AMC Entertainment. 

AMC Networks is a cable content company that owns AMC, AMC+ (a streaming service) and other cable channels.   

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.B. Pared AMCX-Sold 5 at $53.25 (8/12/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $150.96) I discussed the 2021 second quarter report in that post. I also discussed there my unfavorable reaction to AMC settling a lawsuit for $200M after claiming in SEC filings that it has no merit.   

So I have now bought that 5 shares back. 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.I (9/26/20 Post)(multiple small ball purchases with an average cost of $21.25) I currently own 10 shares from those purchases. 

Dividend: None and none expected

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

"Net revenues increased 24% to $811 million as compared to the prior year quarter, driven by growth in content licensing, streaming and advertising revenues."

E.P.S. = $2.55, up from $1.17 in the 2020 third quarter

Adjusted E.P.S. = $2.68, up from $1.32 in the 2020 third quarter. 

Cash at $870+M

Debt at $2.876+B

Net Debt after cash subtraction = $2.005+B

The company said it was on track to have 9M subscribers to its streaming service by year end 2021. 

AMCX hopes to grow that number to 20 to 25 million in the next 4 years. AMC+ Doesn’t Want to be Netflix

The senior unsecured debt is currently rated Ba3/BB. Moody's assigns Ba3 to AMC Networks' SU notes-Moody's (1/25/21)

My main future concerns are the high debt level and the dependence on the Walking Dead series and its offshoots. The Walking Dead (2010–2022) The original Walking Dead series will finish its final season this year. Offshoots are still being produced and will add up to 4 series. How AMC Juggernaut 'The Walking Dead' Will Live On | Benzinga; The Walking Dead ending after 11 seasons but spin-offs to follow - Radio Times

The company had major success with Mad Men as well. Mad Men (2007–2015). Another successful series, Killing Eve (2018–2022). is about to air its final season. 

AMCX has been aggressive in share repurchases.  In 2020, the company bought back $250M in stocks at $23.5 using a modified Dutch Tender auction. AMC Networks Announces Final Results of Modified Dutch That was about 26.6% of the Class A shares then outstanding. 

As noted in the last earnings press release, the company has an ongoing share repurchase program but did not repurchase any shares during the 2021 third quarter which is good IMO. The company needs to use cash flow to reduce debt and to fund new programming without incurring new debt. 

F. Added to Lotto MBIO-Bought 2 at $1.95; 2 at $1.87; 1 at $1.72 and 15 at $1.64; 5 at $1.44:

Quote: Mustang Bio Inc.

Website: Homepage - MustangBio

Pipeline - MustangBio

MBIO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

MBIO SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21

Average cost per share: $1.95 (55 shares)

Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket

I have nothing to add to my recent discussion: Item # 2.E. Bought 30 MBIO at $2.21 ( Post) 

MBIO is what I call a "I have a dream" stock. 

The Stock Jocks have almost no confidence that the dream will ever be realized or, if a drug candidate, is eventually approved, the company would have sold so much stock that even a blockbuster's impact will be severely diluted by the share count.  

The best result for shareholders is probably a premium acquisition by a major drug company. 

The "I have a dream" biotech stocks have been pummeled in this sector ongoing correction. 

G. Eliminated ED in Fidelity Account-Sold 3 at $85.96:

Quote: Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED)

SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

Consolidated Edison, Inc. Profile | Reuters

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 

Profit Snapshot: $55.69 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.L. Added to ED in Vanguard Taxable-Bought 1 at. $68.35; 1 at $67.67 (2/6/21 Post)

Sell Discussions: Item # 2.D. Pared ED in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 1 at $79.95 (5/26/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.51) The only round-trips of any consequence took place in 2011. Item # 2 Eliminated Position in ED at $53.7 (7/14/11 Post)(profit snapshot all 2011 trades = $786.25); Item # 1 Pared ED-Sold 25 at $52.5 (5/9/11 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 ED at $51.30 (4/7/11 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.775 per share ($3.1 annually), last raised from $.765 effective for the 2021 first quarter payment. The recent history is for a small dividend raise during the first quarter. Dividend History | Consolidated Edison, Inc.

Last Ex Dividend: 11/16/21 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Consolidated Edison (ED) SEC Filed Press Release

GAAP E.P.S. = $1.52

Adjusted E.P.S. = $1.41

Consensus at $1.476 per Fidelity

Total Operating Revenues = $3.613B, up from $3.333B in the 2020 third quarter

GAAP to Adjusted Calculation: 

I still own a few shares in other accounts. 

My problem with this stock, and all others in the same industry sector, is historically high P/E ratios and low dividend yields for companies that generally grow earnings slowly. 

The utility stocks have done relatively well during the FED Jihad Against the Savings Class as fixed income alternatives have evaporated to such an extent that even a 3% dividend yield, raised slowly, looks appealing.  

In the event intermediate and longer term interest rates start to rise persistently, eventually on a glide path to normal historical spreads to anticipated inflation rates, the utility stocks will be pressured as their bond substitute characteristics become less attractive given the equity risk compared to fixed income alternatives. (e.g. a small decline in the share price would wipe out a year's worth of dividends, while a fixed income investor is promised the payment of par value at a fixed point in time) 

The current 2022 consensus E.P.S. estimate is $4.5. 

At a $85.96 price, the P/E ratio is 19.1 with a current dividend yield of 3.6%.  

If I assumed a one cent quarterly dividend increase in 2022, the yield would then become 3.65% using the $85.95 price.  A one cent increase amounts to 1.29%.

H. Added to DNNGY-Bought 1 at $40.37; 2 at $38.65; 1 at $37.28: 

Quotes: 

USDs: Oersted A/S ADR

DKK: Oersted A/S  (Denmark: OMX)

DKK to USD -Danish Krone to US Dollars

Renewable Energy Solutions to Fight Climate Change | Ørsted

Green Energy Solutions | Ørsted

I am just averaging down here. 

Average cost per share: $42.34  ( 10 shares) 

Last Discussed: I have nothing to add to this recent discussion Item # 2.J. Bought Back 5 DNNGY at US$45.16 (11/5/21 Post) I discussed the last financial report in that post. Interim financial report 9M 2021.pdf

I. Added to Lotto VKTX-Bought 5 at $4.67; 3 at $4.35; 10 at $3.95: 

Quote: Viking Therapeutics

Average cost per share: $4.84 (30 shares)

This company came to my attention when I researched Ligand (LGND) who had licensed several small molecule compounds to Viking. Ligand Partner Viking Therapeutics Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering 

Ligand currently owns about 6.7 million Viking shares. 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 at page 32. I have a small ball position in LGND and have trimmed it.

Viking had 78.234+M shares outstanding as of 9/30/21, giving Ligand about an 8.56% ownership stake. Without additional LGND purchases, and given Viking's continued share offerings, LGND's ownership interest will be further diluted. I doubt that Ligand could prevent another drug company from acquiring Viking in the event one or more clinical stage programs move closer to FDA approval. 

"Viking Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of novel, orally available, first-in-class or best-in-class therapies for the treatment of metabolic and endocrine disorders. Viking's research and development activities leverage its expertise in metabolism to develop innovative therapeutics designed to improve patients' lives. The company's clinical programs include VK2809, a novel, orally available, small molecule selective thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist for the treatment of lipid and metabolic disorders, which is currently being evaluated in a Phase 2b study for the treatment of biopsy-confirmed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and fibrosis. In a Phase 2a trial for the treatment of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and elevated LDL-C, patients who received VK2809 demonstrated statistically significant reductions in LDL-C and liver fat content compared with patients who received placebo. The company’s second clinical candidate is VK0214, a novel, orally available, small molecule selective thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist for the potential treatment of X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (X-ALD). VK0214 is currently being evaluated in a Phase 1b clinical trial in patients with the adrenomyeloneuropathy (AMN) form of X-ALD. The company holds exclusive worldwide rights to a portfolio of five therapeutic programs, including those noted above, which are based on small molecules licensed from Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated." 

Viking Therapeutics – Pipeline Overview

VKTX SEC Filings

VKTX 2020 Annual Report

Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, Lottery Ticket Basket

The Stock Jocks have almost no confidence in Viking's drug VK2809 to treat nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) will be approved which is understandable given the number of drug failures experienced by other firms so far. Treatment for NAFLD & NASH (noting no drugs have been approved to treat those conditions) That opinion is based on the stock price and the market cap. Viking Therapeutics – Thyroid Receptor beta Agonists for Lipid Disorders

VK2809 is currently in a Phase 2b trial. Viking Therapeutics Presents New Data from Phase 2 Study of VK2809 in Patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) and Elevated LDL-Cholesterol at The Digital International Liver Congress™ 2020 - Aug 28, 2020; Viking Therapeutics' VK2809 shows durable effect in mid-stage fatty liver study (NASDAQ:VKTX)-Seeking Alpha This small molecule is licensed from Ligand (LGND), subject to royalties and milestone payments. For more details, see page 14 of the 2020 Annual Report. 

Another drug, VK2735, just started a Phase 1 trial. Viking Therapeutics Announces Initiation of Phase 1 Clinical Trial of VK2735, Company's Lead Dual GLP-1/GIP Receptor Agonist for various metabolic disorder (1/10/22)("Weight loss, glucose control, and insulin sensitivity were enhanced following treatment with the Viking dual agonists compared to the effects observed with the GLP-1 mono-agonist semaglutide, when administered at the same dose for the same time period. These results suggest that the addition of GIP receptor activity improves upon the effects achieved with activation of the GLP-1 receptor alone"); Viking Therapeutics Presents Preclinical Data on Novel Dual GLP-1/GIP Agonists at ObesityWeek® 2021 (11/1/2021). The results so far are based on mice, so I would not put much reliance on the claims. However, if the results are confirmed in a Phase 1 study, major drug company interest in acquiring Viking would probably increase dramatically. This compound was internally developed and was not licensed from Ligand. 

Note the reference to NVO's weight loss drug Wegovy™ (semaglutide); FDA Approves NVO's New Drug Treatment for Chronic Weight Management, First Since 2014 | FDA That drug will be a mega blockbuster.  

GLP-1: glucagon-like peptide 1

GIP: glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide 

5 Year Chart: Viking's IPO was in 2015, with a public offering at $8 per share. SEC Filing 

Last Loss Report (Q/E 9/30/21): 

Net Loss = $13.2M

E.P.S. = ($.17)

Revenues: Zero

Cash and short term investments as of 9/30/21= $216.135M 

No Debt

J. Added to HCMLY-Bought 25 at $9.78: 

Quotes: 

USD ADR:  Holcim Ltd. ADR (traded on the U.S. pink sheet exchange)

Holcim is one of the world's largest material companies (aggregates, cement, roofing, etc) 

Swiss Francs: LafargeHolcim Ltd. (Switzerland: SWX ) 

CHF / USD Currency Chart. Swiss Franc to US Dollar Rates

ADR Ratio = 1 ADR = .2 ordinary

Website: Holcim, industry experts in building materials

Holcim's key information for investors

Media releases (see also, Holcim on Acquisition Drive to Expand Products Business) 

Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Bought 10 at $11.4; 5 at $11.02; 10 at $10.89 (2/20/21 Post) 

Since my last discussion, the share price has been  pressured by a court decision involving a legacy criminal matter at Lafarge that was acquired by Holcim. Apparently, Lafarge paid ISIS to refrain from destroying a cement plant in Syria.  French firm Lafarge loses bid to dismiss 'crimes against humanity' case in Syria While that is stupid beyond comprehension, it is also the kind of matter that needs to be settled by paying a large fine. 

The company was called LafargeHolcim but has now changed its name to Holcim. 

Dividend: Annual

Holcim shares dividend history

Starting in 2016, the company has paid 2 Swiss Francs per share. Given the ADR ratio for HCMLY, that would translate into .4 Swiss Francs. 

For HCMLY, the last dividend payment was US$.441062 per share. 

There is a Swiss withholding tax. 

The dividend yield will fluctuate with the CHF/USD exchange rate. 

Last Ex Dividend: 5/7/21

Average cost per share:  US$10.45  (50 shares) Based on last year's payment, and assuming the same dividend and CHF/USD exchange rate for 2022, the yield at that AC would be about 4.22%.

Last Financial Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Profitable growth continues, record Q3 | Holcim.com

Earnings reports are released semi-annually. This quarterly report provides details about revenues and EBIT. 

Holcim reports in Swiss Francs. 

LFL: like-for-like 

Third Quarter 2021 results presentation

I do not have access to any broker reports. 

K. Added to IP- Bought 1 at $46.63; 2 at $45.33: 

Quote: International Paper Co.

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.E. Bought 2 IP at $49.27 (11/18/21 Post) 

I discussed the 2021 third quarter earnings report in that post. 

Average Cost per share = $47.17 (5 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.463 per share ($1.852 annually), recently reduced from $.512 as a result of the Sylvamo Corp. (SLYM) spinoff . 

Yield at AC = 3.93%, rounded up. 

Next Ex Dividend: 2/17/22

L. Started TUP in Schwab Taxable-Bought 5 at $14.53: 

Quote: Tupperware Brands Corp. 

Investment Category: Contrarian Value 

Tupperware Brands Corporation

New at Tupperware – Tupperware US; Products – Tupperware US

TUP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (As of 1/18/22, the average E.P.S. forecast for 2022 is at $3.11 and at $3.53 for 2023. Assuming the $3.11 number for 2022 proves accurate, the P/E ratio at $14.53 would be 4.67. The projected E.P.S. growth rate in 2023 compared to 2022 is currently at 13.5%. Assuming those numbers prove to be spot on prediction, the P.E.G. ratio would be about .35. (divide the 4.67 P/E by the 13.5% anticipated growth rate) 

TUP SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 

Dividend: None and none expected. The dividend was "suspended" in 2019. The company needs to use free cash flow to reduce debt IMO so I am in favor of keeping the dividend "suspended", meaning cancelled.  

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Press Release This report illustrates TUP's checkered past and possible better future. 

The diluted GAAP E.P.S. was a loss of $1.63 due to a charge of $2.77 per share. The GAAP number includes TUP's discontinued beauty businesses. Tupperware Brands Enters into Definitive Agreement to Sell its House of Fuller Beauty Business in Mexico;  Tupperware Brands Sells Real Estate Associated with Beauty Business in New Zealand (12/15/21); 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 at page 35: "In the first quarter 2021, the Company completed the sale of Avroy Shlain and in the third quarter of 2021 has classified House of Fuller, Nutrimetics and Nuvo as held for sale. Results for these beauty brands are presented within discontinued operations. The Company expects to complete the dispositions of House of Fuller, Nutrimetics, and Nuvo, in the next 12 months."

For a new purchaser the GAAP loss is a rear-view mirror event but is still negatively impacting the share price as shareholders were burned by this failed diversification strategy. 

The diluted GAAP E.P.S. from continuing operations was reported at +$1.12 adjusted to $1.19 for items. I am focusing on that number as a new shareholder who did not have to pay for management's past mistakes.  

The company has also been selling land owned by it. Last November, the company sold the remaining land around its Orlando, Florida headquarters for $37M.  Tupperware purchased over 1,300 acres in 1953. Tupperware Brands Completes Remaining Land Sale Surrounding Central Florida Headquarters The profits from those land sales will juice the 4th quarter earnings.  

"During the third quarter of 2021, the Company repurchased one million shares of its outstanding common stock for a total acquisition cost of $25 million. This represents the maximum amount allowed within the limitations of its debt covenants, and is the first time since 2018 that the Company has repurchased any of its outstanding common shares."

Other News: Tupperware Brands Corporation Announces Pre-Payment of Term Loan Debt And $250 Million Share Repurchase Authorization (6/21/21)

M. Eliminated VTRS in Vanguard Account-Sold 10 at $14.51: 

Quote:  Viatris Inc.- a major generic drug manufacturer 

VTRS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

VTRS SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 (long term debt is heavy at $19.854+B, see page 33 and see Fitch Affirms Viatris at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable) 

Website: Viatris | Global Healthcare Company

I am going to consolidate my VTRS position in my Fidelity taxable account. 

I am going to consolidate more positions in my taxable accounts and placed that goal on my things to do list within the next 10 years. 

Profit Snapshot: +$14.09

Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Added to VTRS in Fidelity Taxable-Bought 5 at $12.7; 5 at $12.5; 2 at $12.17 (12/22/21 Post); Item # 2.I. Added to VTRS-Bought 2 at $13.56; 5 at $13.13 (11/26/21 Post) 

I discussed the third quarter earnings report in that last linked post. 

Dividend: VTRS recently raised its quarterly dividend by 1 cent to $.12 per share. 

Viatris Announces 9% Dividend Increase, Fourth Consecutive Quarterly Dividend - Jan 6, 2022

Drug companies are lawsuit magnets and VTRS is a defendant in a number of them. I am not going to delve into them here. More information can be found in the 10-Q starting at page 45.

N. Eliminated COHU-Sold 3 at $38.1: 

Quote: Cohu Inc.

COHU SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

COHU Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (The estimates are non-GAAP. The actual E.P.S. number for 2020 was at $1.06. The 2021 E.P.S. average is at $3.02, at $2.95 next year, and $3.34 in 2023). 

I will consider buying back this stock, a form of entertainment for the Old Geezer, when and if the price falls back into a $28-$32 price range, assuming no material change in fundamentals. 

Closing price 1/20/22 at $32.23, down $.62.   

Home | Cohu

Investor Relations | Cohu, Inc

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

Profit Snapshots: +$17.62

Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. (9/3/2021 Post) 

Dividend: None and none expected. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21) SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S.  = $.48

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.70 

Revenues: $225.1M, up from $150.6M in the 2020 third quarter 

GAAP to Non-GAAP Calculation: 

I do not care for such a large percentage difference between GAAP and non-GAAP E.P.S. My general reaction is significantly discount the Non-GAAP numbers when looking at the P/E multiples based on TTM earnings and future E.P.S. projections.

The Y-O-Y revenue numbers suggest a highly cyclical company. While the 2020 E.P.S. number is understandable given the history that year, the non-GAAP numbers in 2018 and 2019 were $1.49  and $.09 respectively which confirms highly cyclical earnings, which, in my opinion, results in a devaluation of peak earnings numbers during an up cycle.  The company reported GAAP losses both years.  

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.