Tuesday, September 13, 2022

BDN, BNS, CPF, GMRE, HBI, LXP, MDT, RTL, RTX, SLGPRI

Economy

CPI rose a seasonally adjusted .1% in August compared to July. Over the past 12 months through August 2022, CPI increased by 8.3% without seasonal adjustments. Core CPI rose .6% in August, hotter than the consensus estimate of .3%.  

Consumer Price Index Summary - 2022 M08 Results

Note the month-over-month increase in food prices, shelter, medical services, and new vehicles. Over the past 12 months, the unadjusted increase in food at home was 11.4% and 13.5% for food away from home.  

So far, the bond and stock markets have reacted negatively to this inflation report. 

Overall, the data points to a slowing economy that is not yet in a recession. 

Positive trends include continued strong gains in jobs, improvement in short term indicators like hotel occupancy rateslower energy and other commodity prices, lower inflation expectations priced into the 5 year TIP, historically low interest rates, and a yield curve that points to a peak in the FF increase cycle late next year or in early 2024.  

Treasury Yield Curve: 

Negative trends include home sales and starts, negative real GDP growth in the first 6 months (coming off a strong 2021), continued problematic inflation (which may have peaked), and consumer spending (still positive but trending down compared to 2021)

++++ 

Exclusive: 'I'm just not going to leave': New book reveals Trump vowed to stay in White House 

Federal grand jury probing Trump's Save America leadership PAC, reports say - CBS News

More than 30 people in Trump's orbit receive subpoenas in January 6 probe The Grand Jury subpoenas indicate that there is an ongoing criminal investigation that involves more than just the events leading up to the 1/6 insurrection. 

The GJ areas of investigation include organizing the 1/6 insurrection, the fake elector scheme, Trump’s fundraising by the Save America PAC which officially registered with the Federal Election Commission on 11/9/2020, and any communications with a broad list of people who worked to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump's PAC has raised more than $135M. Report: Federal Grand Jury Eyeing Trump’s Save America PAC | Vanity Fair Some of the expenditures so far are $60K for Melania's stylist, $200K to Trump hotel properties, and $650K to the Smithsonian to fund portraits of Donald and Melania. Trump PAC funding Smithsonian presidential portraits | The Hill Over 1/2 of the money received by Trump's PAC was reportedly donated by retired people. More than half the money given to Trump’s PAC was from retirees - The Washington Post

Judge dismisses Trump's lawsuit against Clinton, Rod Rosenstein, Andrew McCabe, Congressman Adam Schiff and others as ‘political manifesto’Court Decision.pdf Donald uses his frivolous lawsuits as an intimidation tactic and as one method to create widespread dissemination of false narratives and his grievances. Trump had tried to forum shop this complaint by filing it in a court where he expected Aileen Cannon to be assigned as the judge. Trump’s lawsuit against Clinton was filed in court with judge he appointed - The Washington Post  (the suit was filed in a particular courthouse in the Southern District of Florida, where only Aileen Cannon presides. Instead, it was an anomaly that the case was transferred to another judge. 

Trump special master ruling slammed by legal experts as ‘nutty’ and ‘radical’Judge Aileen Cannon’s Ruling Is Untethered to the Law - The Atlantic

Material on foreign nation’s nuclear capabilities seized at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago - The Washington Post

This was Trump's reaction to the DOJ "protective" appeal of Judge Aileen Cannon's bizarre ruling appointing a master and enjoining the DOJ/FBI investigation of certain alleged crimes:

Trump: "So now the FBI & Biden Department of 'Justice' leakers are going to spend Millions of Dollars, & vast amounts of Time & Energy, to appeal the Order on the 'Raid of Mar-a-Lago Document Hoax,' by a brilliant and courageous Judge whose words of wisdom rang true throughout our Nation, instead of fighting the record setting corruption and crime that is taking place right before their very eyes." Donald Trump Rages as DOJ Appeals Special Master Decision 

As with Trump other rage filled statements, he proves once again that he is a 10 year old brat who never matured, retrogressing back to a 5 year old brat as he became elderly. And, as usual, there is no effort made to actually rebut anything with accurate information. It is not subject to any dispute that Trump failed to produce government documents in response to a Grand Jury subpoena. 

America's secrets: Trump's unprecedented disregard of norms | AP News (Documents responsive to the GJ subpoena were found in Trump's bathroom, office, bedroom, closet and a storage area. Many folders marked as classified were found with no documents inside)

Trump says he will 'very, very seriously' consider January 6 pardons if he runs and wins in 2024Trump says he would issue full pardons and government apology to rioters who stormed the Capitol Jan. 6 - The Washington Post

In the latest poll, Trump is currently trailing Biden in a 2024 rematch. New poll shows Biden with six-point lead on Trump | The Hill (42% of Americans would vote for Trump. No true conservative could vote for Trump)

Doug Mastriano prayed for Trump to ‘seize the power’ before Capitol attack Mastriano is the authoritarian party's candidate for Pennsylvania's Governor.  

The Russian army has performed poorly in Ukraine when matched against the Ukrainian army. The Russian army has done well when murdering unarmed civilians and destroying civilian structures. 

The Ukraine counter offensive in northeast has sent the Russian forces reeling and retreating, with many conscripts leaving their guns and fleeing with whatever vehicle that they can steal including bicycles. In Kharkiv, towns liberated by Ukraine rejoiced in a Russian retreat - The Washington PostUkraine Blitz Sends Russian Forces Into Retreat - The New York Times In the vacated areas, further proof of Russian atrocities against civilians, including murder and torture, are only started to be revealed.

Ukraine has now recaptured more territory over the past week than Russia seized during the first six months of its invasion. 

It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory - The Atlantic

The rot runs deep in the Russian war machine. Ukraine is exposing it for all to see 

Putin is proving that it is just an incredibly bad ruler, easily the worst among large nations. 

+++

1. Corporate Bonds and Treasuries

The following bonds were bought in late June. Interest rates have risen some since these purchases.  

A. Bought 2 Welltower 3.625% SU Maturing on 3/15/24 at a Total Cost of 99.55


Issuer:  
Welltower Inc.  (WELL) 

WELL SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost = 3.895%

Current Yield at TC = 3.64%

B. Bought 2 Welltower 3.625% SU Maturing on 3/15/24 at a 99.209 Total Cost

This is the same bond mentioned above. I decided a few days after purchasing the first 2 bond lot that I liked this bond more than a 2 bond position. I like the 3/15/24 maturity, the credit quality, the fact that the current yield is close to the YTM, and that the YTM went over 4% at my TC number.  

YTM at Total Cost = 4.106%

Current Yield at TC = 3.6539

C. Bought 2 Oracle 2.4% SU Maturing on 9/15/23 at a Total Cost of 98.7

Issuer: Oracle Corp.

ORCL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

ORCL SEC Filings

Results for the F/Q Ending 2/28/22

Results for the F/Q Ending 5/31/22 (net income  = $3. 189B)

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost = 3.5%

Current Yield = 2.43%, rounded down

D. Bought 2 Dominion Gas 2.5% SU Maturing on 11/16/24 at a Total Cost of 96.8013

Issuer: Wholly owned indirect subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway through its ownership of Berkshire Hathaway Energy.  

Berkshire Hathaway Energy is not a publicly traded stock but does file reports with the SEC since it has publicly traded bonds outstanding. Berkshire Hathaway Energy SEC Filings (see page 160 of the 2021 Annual Report, where this bond is now listed as part of Eastern Energy Gas debt.

Finra Page: Bond  Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Credit Ratings: Baa1/A

YTM at Total Cost = 3.918%

Current Yield at TC =  2.58%

A prior purchase was a 2 bond lot bought at 98.715 on 4/6/22, creating then a YTM of 3.019%. Item # 1.C. (5/12/22 Post) 

E. Bought 2 More Dominion Energy Gas 2.5% SU Maturing on 11/16/24 at a Total Cost of 96.513

YTM at Total Cost = 4.052%

Current Yield at TC = 2.59%

This is the same bond discussed in Item C. above.

I now own 8 bonds including 2 in a RI account. 

F. Bought 1 Dow Chemical 4.55% SU Maturing on 6/15/27 at par value


This bond was offered by Fidelity under its corporate notes program. No accrued interest is paid since the bond is being bought directly from Dow as an original issuance.  

G. Bought 1 Treasury 2.25% Coupon Maturing on 11/15/24 at 97.8926

YTM at Total Cost = 3.172%

Current Yield at TC =  2.298%

I now own 3 bonds. 

2. Treasury Auction Purchases:

Purchased on 9/6/22 Auctions 

A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at 98.2505:

91 Day T Bills 

Investment Rate (coupon equivalent yield) = 3.029%

B. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at 96.5015

1 Year T Bill

Investment Rate: 3.603%

3. Small Ball

The focus is on dividend paying stocks, starting off with an extremely low initial investment and then averaging down if the price continues to decline.

A.  Started GMRE Again - Bought 10 at $10.66

Quote: Global Medical REIT Inc. (GMRE)

SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report 

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/22 (debt is mostly variable based on spreads to SOFR, see pages 15 - 19, 25-26, 37-38; )

Management: Internal

Website: Global Medical REIT

Portfolio – Global Medical REIT

As of 6/30/22
MOB: Medical Office Building 
ASC: Ambulatory Surgical Center 

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 1.B. Bought 20 GMRE at $10; 10 at $9.2; 10 at $8.81; 10 at $8.2  (4/18/20 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share

Yield at $10.66 = 7.88%

Last Ex Dividend

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22):  SEC Filing and Supplemental 

FFO per share: $.24

AFFO per share: $.25 

Net Income to AFFO:

While the AFFO calculation does deduct non-cash revenues created by the straight line accounting convention, there is no deduction for routine maintenance expenses, which is required under NAREIT's definition of AFFO. Glossary of REIT Terms | Nareit 

GMRE admits to modifying the NAREIT definition of AFFO but does not identify what is omitted or changed:


I do not know whether the current monthly dividend is comfortably covered by cash available for distribution, an important omission in GMRE's financial disclosures since those expenses are likely to be material. 

Occupied: 96.5%

Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.B. Sold 10 GMRE at $11.22 (4/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.07); Item # 4.A. Eliminated GMRE-Sold 98+ at $9.41 (11/28/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $159.1); Item # 3.C. Sold 50 GMRE at $10.01 (5/23/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $82.54); South Gent's Comment Blog # 7: Eliminated GMRE

GMRE Realized Gains to Date: $376.15

Goal: A total annualized return, unadjusted for any ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis, of 2% above the dividend payments.    

Preferred StockI also own 15 shares of GMREPRA, a 7.5% coupon equity preferred stock. 

Item # 2.A. Bought 10 GMREPRA at $21; 5 at $16.88(4/18/20 Post) 

Yield at AC of $19.63 = 9.55%

Quote: GMRE-PAProspectus; Callable at issuer's option on or after 9/15/22.  

B. Added to BDN in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $7.86

Quote: Brandywine Realty (BDN)

SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report

Our Properties | Brandywine Realty Trust

Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy/Bond Substitute

New Average Cost per share  = $8.88 (75 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share

BDN Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at AC per share = 8.56%, rounded up. 

Yield at $7.86 = 9.67%

Last Ex Dividend: 7/5/22

I discussed this disfavored Office REIT in a recent post and nothing further to add here. Item # 3. Added 10 BDN at $8.29 (8/30/22 Post) 

C. Added to HBI in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $8.45

Quote: Hanesbrands Inc.

HBI Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch

Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/1/22

HBI SEC Filings

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 7/2/22 

New Average Cost per share = $12.77 (80+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share

I am reinvesting the dividend. 

HBI Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at New AC : 4.7%, rounded up. 

Last Ex Dividend: 8/23/22

I discussed HBI in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 3.H. Bought 5 HBI at $8.66 (9/6/22 Post) 

D. Added to CPF - Bought 5 at $21.35

Quote: Central Pacific Financial Corp.

CPF is a bank holding company whose primary operating subsidiary, Central Pacific Bank, has 28 branches in Hawaii. 

Locations - Central Pacific Bank

CPF SEC Filings

Central Pacific Financial Corp. Analyst Estimates

2021 Annual Report 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last DiscussedItem # 5.H. Bought 5 CPF at $21.89 (7/6/22 Post) 

New AC per share = $23.53 (25 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share ($1.04 annually), last raised from $.25 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. The quarterly rate was at $.08 in 2013. 

CPF Dividend History | Nasdaq 

Yield at $23.53: 4.42%

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and Supplement 

Comparisons are to the Q/E 6/30/21

E.P.S. = $.64, down from $.66

Net income included an $8.5M gain on the sale of Visa stock, partially offset by a $4.9M non-cash settlement charge "related to the termination and settlement of the company's defined benefit pension plan". The year ago quarter included a $3.2M release of credit loss reserves, which flows into the income statement, compared to a $1M provision for credit losses in the 2022 second quarter. 

NIM = 3.05%, down from 3.16%

Efficiency Ratio = 64.68%, down from 66.2%

NPL and NPA Ratios: .07%, down from .09%

Coverage ratio: 1,308.67%

ROA =       .96%

ROE =   14.93%

Dividend Payout Ratio = 40.63%

E. Added to BNS - Bought 1 at $53.85; 2 at $53.3


Quotes: 

USD: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)

CAD: Bank of Nova Scotia (Canada: Toronto)

Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rates Chart (Some of the recent decline in the USD priced shares is attributable to the USD rising in value against the CAD) 

Investor Relations

BNS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch  

BNS.TO - Bank of Nova Scotia Key Metrics | Reuters

Last Discussed: Item #1.M. Added to BNS - Bought 1 at $61.05; 1 at $59.68 (10/15/21 Post) 

New Average cost per share this account

Dividend: Quarterly at C$1.03 per share. 

Common Share Information

For the USD priced shares, the dividend amount and yield will fluctuate depending on the CAD/USD exchange rates.  

Next Ex Dividend Date: 10/3/22

Last Earnings Report (F/Q Ending 7/31/22): SEC Filing 

All amounts are in CADs. 

Net Income = $2.694B

E.P.S. = $2.09, up from $1.99. 

ROTE = 19.2%

NIM  = 2.2%, down 5 basis points. 

Charge off ratio = .21%

Total Capital Ratio = 15% 

F. Added to RTL in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 4 at $7.23; 10 at $7.12



Quote: 
Necessity Retail REIT Inc.
Management: External 

Last DiscussedItem # 3.H. Added to RTL in Fidelity Taxable - Bought 2 at $7.7  (8/10/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here. SEC Filed Press Release

Current Average cost per share this account: $8 (165+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.2125 per share ($.85 annually)

RTL Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at AC this account: 10.625%

Last Ex Dividend: 7/8/22

G. Added to MDT - Bought 1 at $86.28

Quote: Medtronic PLC  (MDT)

MDT is probably the largest pure play in the medical device sector. 

52 week range: $85.66-$132.58

MDT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

MDT SEC Filings

Investor Relations | Medtronic - Overview

MDT Key Metrics- Reuters

Investment Category: Dividend Growth

Last DiscussedItem # 2.A. Bought 2 MDT at $88.5 (6/22/22 Post) 

Last Substantive Buy DiscussionItem # 2.G. Started MDT - Bought 1 at $99.5; 1 at $97.87, 1 at $95.85  (6/9/22 Post)(contains snapshots of prior round-trip trades = $1,878.09) 

Average Cost per share: $92.83 (6 shares)

I sold 239+ MDT shares in 2011 (+883.29) and 30 shares in 2014 (+$914.05). Item # 2.G. has snapshots of those prior round-trip trades. I am now buying in 1 or 2 share lots which is a brief synopsis of my willingness to take risks now.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.68 per share ($2.72 annually), last raised from $.63 effective for the 2022 third quarter payment. 

Investor Relations | Medtronic - Dividend History

MDT is a dividend aristocrat. Dividend Aristocrats In Focus: MedtronicS&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL)

Yield at $92.63 = 2.93%

Next Ex Dividend: 9/22/22

Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 7/29/22): This report was for the 1st fiscal quarter. 

GAAP E.P.S.  $.70, up from $.56

Non-GAAP E.P.S.  = $1.13, down 17%

With a currency adjustment, non-GAAP was at $1.16. 

Consensus at $1.13 

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

The largest adjustment is $.27 per share for amortization of intangible assets. 

Revenues: $7.371B, down 8% and down 4% organic. 

Revenue Breakdown: 

Headwinds: Supply chain problems that have limited production of certain products, component shortages in semiconductors, Covid lockdowns in China hurting demand, and negative currency impacts. I view most of these problems as temporary.   

Tailwinds: Longer term trends. Diverse product portfolio, history of innovation, and aging populations, particularly the Baby Boomers in the U.S., who will need MDT devices.  

Fiscal 2022 Results: Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $5.55, up 26%. 

Fiscal 2023 Forecast: Organic revenue growth of 4% to 5% and Non-GAAP E.P.S. of $5.53 - $5.65 with a $.17-$.22 negative impact from currency conversions into USDs. 

The negative per share currency impact in fiscal 2023 was at $20-$.25 when MDT reported its 2022 4th quarter fiscal results. SEC Filed Press Release 

The USD may have already topped out. The DXY is currently close to where it was in September 2002, when it started a cyclical bear market that bottomed near 71 during the 2008 Near Depression. Recent movements have been a series of more short term up and down cycles with a strong move up starting late last year.U.S. Dollar Index-Barchart.com (20 years)

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):

Argus (7/13/22): Buy with a $130 PT, revised down from $145.  

S&P (8/25/22): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $132. 

Morningstar (8/23/22): 5 stars with a $129 FV and a wide moat. 

I do not have access to these reports that were published in response to the last earnings report: 

Goldman Sach report (9/7/22), where the analyst reportedly downgraded the PT to $89 from $96 while keeping a neutral rating. 

RBC reportedly reduced its PT on the same day to $110 from $122. 

On 8/24, Bernstein lowered its PT to $107 from $114 and kept is outperform rating. 

On 8/24, Morgan Stanley lowered its PT to $101 from $103 and kept its neutral rating. 

On 8/24, Wells Fargo lowered its PT to $96 from $104 and kept its equal weight rating. 

On 8/24, Piper Sandler lowered its PT to $90 from $110 and kept its neutral rating. 

On 8/24, Raymond James downgraded its rating to market perform from outperform. 

H. Added to SLGPRI - Bought 5 at $23.48

Quote: SLG-PI

Issuer: SL Green Realty Corp.

SLG SEC Filings

Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

SecurityProspectus

Par Value = $25

Coupon: 6.5% 

Placement in Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock (senior only to common stock)

Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative. 

Term: Potentially perpetual and issuer has the option to call at anytime. 

Stopper Clause: Yes. The preferred stock has a preference right to cash compared to the common stock. This clause enforces that right by preventing the company from deferring the preferred stock dividend while continuing to pay a cash common stock dividend. Before deferring the preferred stock dividend payment, the company must first eliminate cash dividend payments to the common share owners. 

Last DiscussedItem # 2.A. Bought 10 SLGPRI at $24.98 (2/24/22 Post) 

New Average Cost per share  = $24.48 (15 shares)

Yield at AC = 6.64%, rounded up. 

Last Ex Dividend: 6/29/22

Prior Sell DiscussionsItem # 3.A. Eliminated SLGPRI - Sold 20 at $25.96 (9/12/20 Post)Item # 5 Sold 50 SLGPRI at $23.6 (4/3/2014 Post)

SLGPRI Realized Gains to date: $151.58

I have a small ball position in the common stock. 

Last SLG DiscussionItem # 3.G. Added to SLG - Bought 2 at $45  (8/30/22 Post)(dividends paid monthly) 

Current SLG Position:  19+ Shares.

I. Restarted LXP - Bought 10 at $10.47

Quote: Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)

LXP SEC Filings 

Properties | LXP Industrial Trust

Portfolio Statistics as of 6/30/22: 

Website: "LXP Industrial Trust - Preeminent single-tenant U.S. industrial REIT"

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share, slashed from $.177 in 2019, then raised from $.1077 to the current $.12 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment.   

LXP announced the dividend slash when it disclosed the sale of office properties. Lexington Realty Trust Announces Disposition of 21 Office Assets for $726 Million to Joint Venture (9/4/18) This sale was part of LXP's strategic shift to a single tenant industrial property REIT. 

I eliminated my positions after this announcement and have not been back until this 10 share purchase. It has taken about 4 years for me to forgive and forget enough to buy that lot.  

Yield at $10.47: 4.5845%

Last Ex Dividend: 6/29/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): 

SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental 

FFO  = $54.338M or $.19 per diluted share

Funds Available for Distribution (FAD): $44.965M or $.158 per diluted share. 

LXP has another cash flow number, which it calls adjusted FFO (AFFO), which was reported at $.17 per share.  The FAD numbers include the AFFO adjustments to FFO and is closer to an actual cash flow number. (e.g. deducts pretend revenues created by the straight line accounting convention and tenant improvement expenses, while adding back non-cash expenses)  

Revenues: $79.775M, down from $81.541. Revenue comparisons to earlier quarters will largely be dependent on acquisition and disposition activities.  

2022 Outlook: 

Ongoing Development Projects

Recent News: The stock dropped in April 2022 after LXP announced it was suspending an evaluation of strategic alternatives. LXP Industrial Trust Suspends Strategic Alternatives Process 

Some Sell Discussions: I eliminated my position in response to the dividend slash mentioned above. Item # 1.B. Eliminated LXP - Sold 155+ at $9.46 (6/26/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.37); Item # 1.B. Sold 108+ LXP at $9.45-Used Commission Free Trade (2/6/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $79.9); Item # 1.C. Sold 137+ LXP at $9.08 and 53 at $9.06 In 2 Separate Roth IRA Accounts (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshots = $914.11); Sold 100 LXP in Fidelity Roth IRA at $11.15 (1/6/17 comment- profit of $271.9 referenced with no snapshot))Item # 1 Sold 150 LXP in Vanguard Roth IRA-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 6/24/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $80.19); Item # 2 Sold 250 LXP on Ex-Dividend Date in Two Taxable Accounts-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $224.65); Item # 1. Sold 54 LXP at $11.44 Vanguard Roth IRA (1/27/15 Post)(profit snapshot = $64.4); Item # 1 Sold 101+ LXP at $10.65 (10/28/14)(profit snapshot = $51.76) 

LXP Realized Gains to Date: $1,914.49 

I currently own 3 LXP 4.4% SU bonds maturing on 6/15/24. FINRA Bond Detail (currently rated Baa2/BBB-) 

J. Added to RTX - Bought 1 at $87.66

Quote: Raytheon Technologies Corp. (RTX)

52 week range: $79-$106.2

Chart: Below 50, 100 and 200 day SMA lines using a 1 year YF chart. 

RTX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

RTX SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/22

Average cost per share = $89.13 (2 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.55 per share ($2.2 annually), last raised from $.51 effective for the 2022 second quarter payment. 

RTX Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $89.13: 2.478%

Last Ex Dividend: 8/18/22 (owned 1 share as of)

Item # 2.B. Bought 1 RTX at $90.59 (8/2/22 Post) I have nothing further to add to this recent discussion where I discussed the last earnings report. SEC Filed Press Release

4. Early Redemption of Kimco 3.125% SU Maturing on 6/1/23 Without a Make Whole Premium Payment to Par Value

Item # 1.A. Bought 1 Kimco 3.125% SU Bond Maturing on 6/1/23 at a Total Cost of 99.328 (3/13/2017 Post)

A calculation had to be made whether a make whole payment was required for this early optional redemption. 

The prospectus for this bond contains a standard make whole provision:


For an optional redemption prior to 3/1/23, Kimco had to pay the greater of (1) the principal amount + accrued interest or (2) the principal amount and all remaining interest payments discounted to present value using the treasury rate for an equivalent maturity treasury + .2%.  

The provision comes into play when interest rates are declining and the issuer can refinance the bond at a lower coupon. 

While the early redemption of the Kimco bond was subject to a make whole provision, no make whole penalty payment was made given the rise in short term rates. 

The discounting mechanism to present value, using the equivalent maturity treasury yield, resulted in a lower amount than the principal amount + accrued interest. The equivalent maturity treasury yield was higher than the bond's coupon rate.

There would have been a premium payment with the applicable short term treasury yield near where it started in 2022.  As the discount rate goes down, the "present" value of the principal amount and all remaining interest payments goes up.  

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.

30 comments:

  1. So the market was counting on better outcomes. Well, that is stating the obvious.

    Finally rates are going to exist again! Savers will have options!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: The 1 year T Bill is currently trading at a 3.92% yield, up +.212%.

      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd01y?countrycode=bx

      That is the highest rate since late 2007 on that T Bill.

      I am placing more emphasis on buying shorter term treasury bills at auction. The 1 and 2 month bills are auctioned on Thursday. I have about $100K in treasury bills that mature in September-December 2022 and plan to rollover the proceeds into more of the same.

      While the yield curve indicates that the FF rate will top out in late 2023 or early 2024, there is no reason to believe, based on history, that the currently anticipated FF rate increases will solve the serious problematic inflation problem.

      The CME FedWatch tool currently has a 100% probability that the FED will raise the FF rate by at least .75% later this month, with a 16% probability of a 1% increase. The forecast for July 2023 has a 68.8% probability of a FF range at least as high as 4.00-4.25% One month ago, the odds of at least a 4-4.25% FF rate was at 6.7%. So the expectations are moving up as the problematic inflation reports persist.

      https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

      Delete
    2. Seems like T Bill's are anticipating the rate hikes. Since 2007? Finally. It will shake loss the sense that near ZIRP is the only acceptable norm.

      The 1-2 mo are higher than savings accounts when I looked the other day. Not sure I'd have patience to keep rolling them. But a better deal than savings accounts.

      A lot depends on what's causing inflation, to figure out what will take it down. I haven't seen serious articles assessing that. (Lots of political comments of the other party did it.)

      Delete
    3. Land: The 1 month T Bill closed today at 2.55% and the 2 month at 2.95%.

      The treasury yield curve rises from 1 month to 1 year which currently has the highest yield out to 30 years.

      https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202209

      Besides receiving more than a savings account, treasury interest can not be taxed by a state.

      One short term approach is to autoroll a 1 month bill and turn it off whenever the money is needed for some other purchase or the FED ends its hiking cycle. FF rate increases will flow quickly into a rollover of 1 month T Bill.

      Autorolls can be done at Vanguard, Schwab and Fidelity and no commission is charged by those brokers for treasury purchases at auction or in the secondary market. If a broker charges a commission, then use another broker.

      I still plan to pick up my extremely anemic stock buying when the VIX crosses 30 with the new small ball scatter shot "buying program" being less extremely anemic.

      Delete
    4. Autorolls? Well that helps.

      "not be taxed by a state"
      That's a nice touch. Especially, my state's tax is high by the time they add local's %.

      VIX is 26.75. It looks so far from 30, but these moves shoot up fast. Definitely a good thought to buy.

      I'll probably stick with index funds including CALF and add to a few stocks I have. Not sure if any sectors are the ideas to go to. Everything is still at higher PEs than the mean.

      Delete
    5. Land: VIX quotes are delayed. The close today was at 27.27 up 3.4 or 14.24%. That was a restrained reaction for the VIX given the 4.32% decline in the S & P 500.

      In part I trade off patterns. The pattern in an Unstable VIX is to pare during movement below and to add when the VIX shoots back over 30.

      Today, I bought 5 MPW, a REIT, that declined by significantly more than the per share quarterly dividend which goes ex tomorrow.

      Medical Properties Trust Inc.
      $14.29 -$0.74 -4.92%
      DIVIDEND $0.29
      YIELD 8.12%


      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mpw?mod=search_symbol

      Delete
  2. "yield curve that points to a peak in the FF increase cycle late next year or in early 2024"

    The collective is often right. But they could be too blue sky optimistic?

    I'd thought the Ukrainian news would give the market a lift. (Maybe it is, and it'd be worse after this report.)

    ReplyDelete
  3. First Foundation just raised it's savings rate to 2.25% from 2.02%. The highest on depositaccounts is 2.61% at ufb.

    ReplyDelete
  4. My non-retirement ameritrade is higher than the June lows. Most shares are retracing steps but don't look bad.

    The expected already weak are the only ones doing worse,
    INTC, MMM, SOXX, VZ,

    The high tech are just red and lost their big gains from last year, but that's to be expected until some future rally. GRMN, TXN.

    So it's a big loss for one day, but just a repositioning to where things were.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Ray Dalio commentary on inflation and stock prices:

    "I estimate that a rise in rates from where they are to about 4.5 percent will produce about a 20 percent negative impact on equity prices"

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/starts-inflation-ray-dalio/?trackingId=3yqUFsdYQdmYcom2ocFnnA%3D%3D

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sounds reasonable.

      A huge factor will be TINA ending. That'll be new since about 2011 so will take a while to sink in. But could pull P/Es back down to earth.

      I noticed IWM small caps aren't that far from the 2020 top of 163.
      Currently 179.
      The breakout in 2013 was from 99.
      In march 2020 it came close at about 109.

      The other indices are hanging in the air way still way above 2020.

      I'm not sure what that means, but I'm sure it'll be a factor in what supports the market uses.

      Delete
  6. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
    $63.53 +$0.73 +1.16%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre?mod=search_symbol

    Bank stocks rose in a down market today. While I would not draw any conclusion from that 1 day divergence, banks are beneficiaries of a rising interest rate environment as long as the economy avoids a recession that causes a substantial surge in non-performing loans and charge-offs. It is not difficult to find regional bank stocks with TTM P/E ratios less than 12 with 4%+ dividend yields.

    Through the second quarter of 2022, regional banks are generally reporting Y-O-Y declines in their NPL and Charge Off Ratios. That could change quickly however.

    The 1 year treasury bill is currently at a 4.025% yield.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd01y?countrycode=bx

    The 1 year bill is auctioned monthly. The next auction is on Tuesday 10/4/22. I will participate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The market is still up when rates go down and down on days when rates go up.

      It doesn't make much sense to me, since a small rate change doesn't mean the macro picture as changed one iota.

      Rates are generally going up with each Fed announcement. A down day goes mean they won't.

      Delete
    2. Those NPL and Charge off ratios are consistent with that employment is still high and not showing signs of slow down yet.

      Delete
    3. I've been checking FHN regularly for a point to buy in more. Hasn't been below $23 for a while.

      Delete
    4. Land: The recent FHN price action suggests that investors are more comfortable in TD's acquisition passing regulatory scrutiny. There was a hearing before the Comptroller of the Currency last August and apparently the usual suspects complained about it. There is no legitimate reason IMO for either the Federal Reserve or the Comptroller to withhold consent.

      There is a non-fundamental reason for the decline in after hours trading. In anticipation of the merger, FHN will be removed from two bank ETFs effective prior to the market's opening next Monday.
      https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/09/10/2513538/0/en/KBW-Announces-Index-Rebalancing-for-Third-Quarter-2022.html

      Delete
    5. Only 1% down. My shares average 21.92. Can't bring myself to buy at 23.10 right now.

      Good to know that the ETF removal is reason for the decline.

      Delete
  7. Ot oh, the pee tape is real and was among the mar largo materials. Beyond delay tactics, that's why he's been so adamant about "executive privileged" and privacy. Out of the blue he's "getting in front of the news" and bringing it up.

    I hope when media gets a hold of it, they don't play it over and over.

    https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/1571307713103011842

    ReplyDelete
  8. Land: I doubt there is a "golden shower" tape anywhere. However, with thoroughly Despicable Don, I have to acknowledge that he is at least capable of doing it.

    There is no legal justification IMO for the Trump appointed republican judge, who is obviously his favorite since he keeps filing suits in the courthouse where she is the only judge, to stay the DOJ/FBI use of the documents marked as classified in a criminal investigation.

    One key issue in that investigation involves possible obstruction of justice, a felony, in the failure to turn over those documents in response to a Grand Jury subpoena.

    The subpoena, part of a GJ criminal investigation involving at least 3 criminal statutes, demanded the production of all documents marked as classified and there were at least 100 such documents discovered in August.

    Trump's claim that he declassified the documents is not relevant to the obstruction investigation. While my default position is that nothing this psychopath says is true, it may actually be worse, as a national security matter, that he declassified those documents kept in a storage room, a closet in his office and bathroom.

    Maybe Donald can ultimately be dressed in clothes that have the same color as his hair.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Matching monochrome orange, yes, be nice!

      Ops, I wasn't meaning any of it justifies. Merely that it's the self-justification she and he use for violating, and ignoring the law.

      I'd thought the tape didn't exist. But with Trump bringing it up out of the blue in explicit story telling... there's two reasons:
      1. Get ahead of it's release
      2. Distract from something else.

      His showing how he told Melania it didn't happen, seems more like #1.

      Media talk about how maybe he was collecting them as memorabilia.That doesn't add up with his history. He was grifting off of this in some not yet revealed way, and created national security issues.

      There has to be some way to make him orange, and do it sooner than later.

      Delete
  9. Barron's claims that the IBond coupon will reset on 11/1/22 at close to 6%, down from 9.6% that was based on the non-seasonally adjusted CPI index between September 2021 through March 2022.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/i-bond-new-rates-november-51663365393?mod=RTA

    I have quit buying IBonds and have switched to purchases of TIPs in my Roth IRA account.

    The IBond currently has no real yield.

    A 5 year TIP closed last Friday at a +1.13% real yield.
    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2022

    The 5 year TIP closed at a -1.58% real yield on 1/3/22.

    I will discuss a TIP purchase in my next post.

    I will also be discussing a new arbitrage play.


    ReplyDelete
  10. I have published a new post. The new arbitrage play is SJI which is discussed in Item # 3.
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/09/grx-lxp-mfic-mpw-ppl-rtx-sji.html

    ReplyDelete
  11. Ibonds have no real yield.... But on the next round in nov isn't it likely they'll be a fixed yield to go with the lowered inflation rate?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: I doubt that the Treasury will offer even a .1% real yield since there is no incentive to do so. Individuals will keep buying those IBonds without any real yield. The last real yield was .2% for IBonds bought between 11/1/2019 to 5/1/2020. CPI was at 1.2% in 2020:
      https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1913-

      Delete
    2. I thought the yield would be by formula off current rates. With inflation flipped higher than rates, the higher inflatiion will be enough of a draw.

      I'm going to get the additional $5k this year and not try to stretch it into Nov. The problem is how little you can buy. You have to go to TIPs or bills.

      My dad was rambling about rates still going up and maybe a bank account isn't the best place. So when I visit in a few weeks, we'll talk about 2-3-6mo bills with auto role and a little longer term.

      Delete
    3. Land: The author of the Barron's article on IBonds claims that a buyer before 11/1/22 will receive the current coupon for six months and then the reset coupon.

      "Investors who buy I bonds before Nov. 1 will get the 9.6% rate for the first six months they hold the bonds and then the new rate for the next six months."

      I had forgotten about that quirk.

      TIPs are easy to buy in the secondary market. While the price for 1 bond lots will be higher than for 250, the percentage difference is narrow.

      Before anyone ventures into buying TIPs in the secondary market, some time needs to be sent learning about them, their advantages and disadvantages, how the principal amount is calculated, and some knowledge based feel for when the breakeven inflation rate embedded in the price makes it more likely than not that the TIP is a better buy than the same maturity non-inflation protected treasury.

      Some of the potential disadvantages can be avoided by refusing to buy TIPs with negative real yields and to possibly sell those bought with positive real yields when and if the real yield at a current price is negative (particularly deeply negative( <-1%) as in the recent past.

      Another disadvantage is that the current income will be substantially less than an investor can find now for a non-inflation protected security. The coupons for TIPs are generally much lower. The better total return comes when the average inflation rate over the term exceeds the breakeven inflation rate. at the time of purchase.

      Delete
    4. I had tried looking up TIPS a couple of weeks ago, and found it confusing. I was going to ask a question but couldn't even be sure I was wording one that made sense. So figured I have to go back and really study them. That was even to buy from the treasury and not as a 2ndary trade.

      I could follow that you buy sub-par and the difference to par is the interest. But the adjustments for inflation weren't clear to me.

      Meanwhile, with inflation already high, it seemed logically, suboptimal time to buy into inflation protection. If inflation was building, that's when the lower rate is worth the trade off to protect for when inflation hits...

      --

      Ibonds staying at current rate for 6 mos after buying particularly makes ibonds worthwhile right now. Even if you sell after a year & lose the last 3 mos of interest, it's a decent return for the year. But the cap on buying makes it all pretty trivial...
      ... unless you have tons of kids & business & a spouse, and you buy a $10k lot for each of them.


      Delete
    5. LAND: The non-inflation protected treasury bills (1 month to 1 year maturities) are sold at discounts to par value and do not have a coupon. The difference between the price paid and par value is the interest.

      TIPs have special tax rules when held in a taxable account. Some cash interest is paid semi-annually and the accretion to principal amount is also taxable as interest in each year the TIP is owned even though no cash is paid and the TIP is not sold.

      https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/tips/res_tips_tax.htm

      The IBOND has a coupon based on the CPI rate and that "interest" is added to the principal amount. Unlike the TIP, however, no taxes are owed until the IBond is redeemed or ownership is transferred unless the owner elects to do so.
      https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_itaxconsider.htm


      I discuss a TIP purchase in a Roth IRA account in Item # 5.

      With a TIP purchase, I am basically making an educated guess that I would be better off on a total return basis than buying a similar term non-inflation protected treasury. For that to happen, the annual average CPI rate will need to be better than the breakeven inflation rate at the time of purchase. That is a relative concept. It does not mean that either investment is a good one, compared to others, but only that one may end up being better than the other.

      Delete
    6. Thanks! There's a lot to know. I'll look at that buy again now that I have more idea.

      Delete