Economy:
BLS Job Additions 2012 through March 2022:
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Jobs report March 2022: Payrolls rose 431,000 in March, less than expected The consensus estimate was for 490K. The BLS increased the January and February numbers were revised up by 95K. Average hourly earnings increased by 5.6% for the 12 month period ending in March 2022. Employment Situation Summary
The U-6 number declined to 6.9% from 7.2% in February. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Key people from the Fed just spooked the markets — here's what they said (4/5/22)
Surging interest rates push mortgage demand down more than 40% from a year ago
A fertilizer shortage, worsened by war in Ukraine, is driving up global food prices and scarcity
US weekly jobless claims (166K, the lowest level since 1968); Initial Claims-St. Louis Fed
This Economist Says Europe Is in Recession, and the U.S. May Be Able to Hit a Soft Landing | Barron's This is an assessment of current conditions, partly based on wage growth of about 1% in Europe with inflation running at 7 to 8% creating a squeeze on consumer spending. Eurostat GDP Report.pdf (for 2021 GDP in the Euro area increased by 5.3%) Based on Eurostat's last estimate of 4th quarter GDP, the European economy was still growing then. Euro Areas annual inflation was last reported at 7.5%. Flash Estimate for March 2022.pdf
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U.S. sanctions Putin’s adult children, bans all new investment in Russia U.S. based companies have stopped investing in Russia and have already mostly pulled out before those sanctions were imposed by the U.S. government. I seriously doubt that any of them will be returning in my lifetime.
As of 4/5/22, Ukraine claims that 18,500 Russian soldiers have died in combat and its equipment losses are staggering, including 676 tanks, 332 artillery systems, 1,858 armored personnel carriers, 150 aircraft and 134 helicopters. The equipment losses can be verified by satellite imagery.
Russian retreat exposes dead bodies in Bucha, outside Kyiv - The Washington Post I doubt that Putin TV will be acknowledging that Russia's invasion was stopped and repelled in Kyiv's suburbs or that they routinely tortured civilians and then murdered them.
Collecting Bodies in Bucha | The New Yorker I have listened to or read several eyewitness accounts that Russian soldiers would loot homes and stores of vodka, whiskey and other alcoholic beverages and scores of empty bottles would lay around the killing fields of murdered and tortured Ukrainian civilians.
Russia lost the Battle of Kyiv (2022) - Wikipedia
In the Kyiv Suburb of Bucha,‘They Shot Everyone They Saw’ - The New York Times (bodies of civilians were found with their hands tied behind their back and shot in the back of the head; a 56 year old woman, Tetiana Pomazanko, was shot in her front yard as Russian troops passed by, with her mother covering her body "as best she could with plastic sheeting and wooden boards"; "mounting evidence that civilians had been killed purposely and indiscriminately.")
Bucha Woman Says Russian Troops Killed Husband in Front of Her
New Reports of War Crimes in Ukraine Emerge as Russians Retreat From Kyiv Area Russia, where all of the news is Fake, calls the videos, photographs and testimony by survivors "fake", claiming that "not a single local resident suffered from any violent actions" by Russia.
Russia claims that the civilian bodies in Bucha were placed there after Russia left which is just another brazen lie. First, satellite imagery shows the bodies were present during Russia's occupation. Refuting Russian Claim, Satellite Images Show - The New York Times Second, Russian soldiers did not murder every civilian, and eyewitness testimony is being gathered that confirms Russia's responsibility for civilian executions and murders. Ukrainians who were under Russian control describe abuse by soldiers - Washington Post; Russia Denied A Massacre. News Outlets Had Satellite Images To Prove They Did It. | Vanity Fair Like the Nazis, Russia left witnesses.
The prosecutor's office in Moscow issued a press release that it would criminally charge anyone who blamed Russia for civilian deaths. Making a truthful statement in Russia is now punishable by 15 years in the Gulag, and proving the truth of the statement is of course not a defense.
‘This Is True Barbarity’: Life Under Russian Occupation - The New York Times
At Least 200 Feared Dead in Apartments Hit by Russia, Officials Say - The New York Times; Destruction in the Ukrainian town of Borodyanka - BBC News (video); Dispatch: Inside Borodyanka, the town with a death toll feared higher than Bucha - YouTube; Kyiv fears a civilian massacre at Borodyanka worse than Bucha | Euronews
Russian Soldiers Executed, Raped Ukraine Civilians: Human Rights Watch; Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas | Human Rights Watch
Ukrainian Mayor Tortured, Killed & Buried Along With Her Husband & Son In Mass Grave
Mykolaiv hospital hit by Russian shelling - The Washington Post; Consequences of the destruction of the building of the Mykolaiv regional state administration - YouTube
Russians Deploying 'Mobile Crematoriums' to Cover Up Tracks, Ukraine Says
Russians Target Ambulance Outside Children’s Hospital in Mykolaiv, Video Shows; Ukraine: Aid ambulance from Merthyr Tydfil hit by shelling - BBC News This was a tactic used by Russia in Syria.
In Chernihiv, scenes of death and destruction after Russian occupation - The Washington Post Just more Russian war crimes.
Up-Close Ukraine Atrocity Photographs Touch a Global Nerve - The New York Times
Irpin, near Kyiv, was reduced to rubble by Russian forces - The Washington Post
Voices from Mariupol’s bloody siege - The Washington Post
'Like a scene from the gates of hell': CNN reporter sees carnage by Russia in Ukraine
The major of Motyzhyn Olga Sukhenko and her family were kidnapped by Russia's military. She was later murdered by Russia, along with her husband and son, while in captivity. Their bodies were discovered in a mass grave afters Russian forces withdrew from the areas north of Kiev. Just more war crimes committed by Russia that are simply routine matters for that nation. Ukrainian Mayor Killed 'Execution Style,' Thrown Into Pit by Troops: Report
One reason that Russia will not voluntary withdraw from coastal areas along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov is that such withdrawal will provide more evidence of its war crimes and crimes against humanity. Nuremberg Trials
New Russian Land Mine Poses Special Risk in Ukraine - The New York Times The POM-3 mines are have sensors that detect when a person is nearby and then launches a small explosive warhead that explodes, sending fragments capable of killing anyone within 50 feet. The general idea is to kill as many civilians as possible without risking Russian soldiers in the slaughter and to make it a deadly enterprise to remove the mines from civilian occupied areas.
Based on what I read and viewed, the closest modern historical analogy to the conduct of Russian soldiers from the top down to the lowest rank would be the Waffen-SS. Wikipedia. If those Russians soldiers want to find Nazis in Ukraine, they only need to look in the mirror.
Shaken at First, Many Russians Now Rally Behind Putin’s Invasion, republished by MSN.com from Shaken at First, Many Russians Now Rally Behind Putin’s Invasion - The New York Times ("Polls and interviews show that many Russians now accept Mr. Putin’s contention that their country is under siege from the West and had no choice but to attack. The war’s opponents are leaving the country or keeping quiet.") Perhaps it psychologically easier to accept those reality creations, used to justify military aggression and the slaughter of civilians, than to just accept that Russia has a propensity for, and devotion to, committing war crimes. Perhaps a few Russians might ask themselves why Putin is denying them access to independent news outlets so that they can decide who is telling the truth.
See footage of Russian trenches in radioactive area - YouTube Russian troops dug trenches in radioactive soil near the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. This is just more proof of Russia's lack of concern about its own soldiers.
Bristling Against the West, China Rallies Domestic Sympathy for Russia - The New York Times, republished at MSN.com., Bristling Against the West, China Rallies Domestic Sympathy for Russia IMO, China supports what Russia is doing in Ukraine and gave a green light to the unprovoked invasion and the consequences resulting therefrom.
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1. Corporate Bonds:
YTM = Yield-to-Maturity
A. Bought 2 Oneok 2.75% SU Bonds Maturing on 9/1/24 at a Total Cost of 99.664:
The total cost number includes a $1 per bond commission. The bonds were bought at 99.564.
Issuer: ONEOK Inc. (OKE)
Current Yield at TC = 2.893%
YTM at TC = 2.936%
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB
I also own the common stock.
B. Bought 2 Main Street Capital 3% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/14/26 at a Total Cost of 94.262:
Issuer: Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN) - Internally Managed BDC
2021 4th Quarter Earnings Press Release-SEC Filing
I have owned the common shares but do not currently have a position.
I own 2 MAIN SU bonds maturing in December 2022. Item # 2.A. Bought 2 Main Street Capital 4.5% SU Bonds at a Total Cost of 96.9 (6/13/20 Post)
Rated at BBB- by S & P
Current Yield at TC = 3.18%, rounded down
YTM at TC = 4.48%, rounded up.
C. Bought 1 Boston Property 2.75% SU Bond Maturing on 10/1/26 at a Total Cost of 98.07:
FINRA Page (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Boston Properties Inc. (BXP)-An Office REIT
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
Current Yield at TC = 2.8%, rounded down
YTM at TC = 3.21%
Accrued Interest Paid to Seller: $13.14
I received soon after this purchase the entire six month interest payment of $13.75:
I will deduct the $13.14 in interest paid to the seller in schedule B, using the tag line "Accrued Interest Paid to Bond Sellers". The seller's 1099 will include that $13.14 payment while $13.75 will be included in my 1099. The supplemental statement from my brokers will contain information on the totals.
The deduction of $13.14 in Schedule B will be part of a single line item that will group together all accrued interest payments that I paid to bond sellers.
I have bought and sold the common stock in Roth IRA accounts and do not currently have a position.
D. Added 1 Boston Properties 2.75% SU Maturing on 10/1/26 at a Total Cost of 96.919- IB Account:
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See Item # 1.C. Above
YTM at TC = 3.498%
Current Yield at TC = 2.84%, rounded up
Position now at 2 bonds.
My IB account now has my largest percentage allocation to cash which includes CADs and AUDs.
E. Bought 2 Bank of Nova Scotia 1.625% SU Bonds Maturing on 5/1/23 at a Total Cost of 99.388:
Issuer: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)
BNS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) reports first quarter results (Fiscal quarter ending 1/31/22)
I own the common shares.
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)Bought at 99.288
Total Cost at 99.388 (includes $1 per bond commission)
Credit Ratings: A2/A-
AA+ by Fitch
Current Yield at Total Cost = 1.66%
YTM at TC = 2.29%
2. Small Ball:
A. Bought 20 BBDC at $10.34-Vanguard Taxable Account:
Quote: Barings BDC Inc. (BBDC)
Website: Company Overview
2021 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 35 and ends at page 69)
Management: External by Barings LLC, a subsidiary of MassMutual.
This is a new name for me. I discussed this purchase in a comment published on 3/9/22.
Barings purchased the asset of another BDC, formerly called Triangle Capital, that was internally managed. The name and symbol was changed to Barings BDC (BBDC) as the external manager. Triangle Capital Corporation Completes Previously Announced Sale of Investment Portfolio Barings Becomes Investment Adviser to Barings BDC, Inc. Barings paid the Triangle Capital shareholders $1.78+ per share to accept Barings as the external manager. Barings also injected $100M in cash through the purchase of shares at $11.72.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share that took the penny rate from $.19 per share to $.22.
There were 3 one cent per share dividend raises in 2021. The current quarterly rate is close to the net investment income per share.
Yield at $10.34: 8.9%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/15/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
NII per share of $.23
Net Asset Value per share = $11.36, up from $10.99 as of 12/31/20
As of 12/31/21, BBDC "had two assets on non-accrual, the fair value of which was $36.0 million, which comprised 2.0% of the total fair value of our portfolio, and the cost of which was $50.9 million, which comprised 2.9% of the total cost of our portfolio. As of December 31, 2020, we had one asset on non-accrual, the fair value of which was $3.0 million, which comprised 0.2% of the total fair value of our portfolio, and the cost of which was $3.0 million, which comprised 0.2% of the total cost of our portfolio."
Quote: Kellogg Co. (K)
Kellogg Co. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Kellogg Company | Our Brand Portfolio
Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/1/22
I mentioned this pare in a comment published on 3/7/22, noting my concern that margin pressure caused by commodity inflation will likely intensify IMO.
Investment Categories: Bond Substitute/Dividend Growth which has been sluggish recently.
Profit Snapshot: +$10.43
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.L. Added to Kellogg (K)-Bought 2 at $61; 1 at $60.5; 1 at $59.9; 1 at $59.4; 1 at $58.8; 1 at $58; 1 at $57.6 (1/30/21 Post); Item # 3.D. Added to Kellogg-Bought 4 at $62.7; 2 at $62.44; 2 at $61.3 (12/19/20 Post)(last substantive buy discussion); Item # 1 Bought 50 Kellogg at $55.44 and 10 at $54.68-Used Commission Free Trades (7/20/19 Post)
Average Cost per share after pare this account: $60.3 (20+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 3/7/22 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $60.7.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.58 per share ($2.32 annually); last raised from $.57 effective for the 2021 second quarter payment.
Yield at $60.3 AC this account: 3.85% rounded up
Last Ex Dividend: 2/28/22
Last Earnings Report (F/Q 1/1/22): SEC Filing
GAAP E.P.S. = $1.26;
Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.83 with the consensus at $.791 per Fidelity;
Organic Y-O-Y revenue growth of 5.2% which excludes the impact of currency and the extra week in the prior fiscal quarter;
The quarter was negatively impacted by a strike, a "modestly" higher tax rate, worldwide supply disruptions, input inflation, and a fire at a cereal plant;
Guides fiscal 2022 to adjusted E.P.S. growth to 1% to 2% with cash flow in the $1.1B to $1.2B range after about $600M in capital expenditures
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.C. Sold 1 K at $67.93 (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $5.02); Item # 1.L. Pared K-Sold 2 at $65 (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $1.57); Item # 1.B. Sold 30 K at $66.3 (3/21/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $332.32); Item # 2. Pared Kellogg- Sold 10 at $69.3 (1/8/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $138.58); Item # 2.C. Sold 10 K at $66.3 (12/28/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $108.58); Item # 3.B. Sold 10 K at $63.95 (8/10/2019 Post)(profit snapshot = $85.08)
Kellogg Realized Gains to Date: $681.58
C. Added to ORKLY-Bought 30 at $8.54:
Quotes:
USD Priced ADR: ORKLY
NOK: ORKLA ASA (ORK.OL)
ADR Ratio 1 for 1
NOK / USD Currency Chart. Norwegian Krone to US Dollar Rates
Orkla Confectionery & Snacks - Orkla.com
Orkla Food Ingredients - Orkla.com
Orkla Consumer & Financial Investments - Orkla.com Those investments include a 42.6% interest in Jotun (a large manufacturer of paints and coatings); Hydro Power, consisting of wholly-owned power plants in Sarpsfoss and power plants leased through Orkla's 85% interest in SØNNÅ HYDRO; Orkla Ventures; Orkla House Care; Lilleborg ("hygiene and cleaning systems to the professional market"); and Pierre Robert Group ("high-quality basic garments for women, men and children")
Orkla's 42.6% interest in Jotun needs to be sold IMO, an opinion expressed here for over five years.
In 2017, Orkla did sell its 50% interest in SAPA for NOK11.86B in cash. SAPA is a global leader in aluminum extrusions. Norsk Hydro – Acquisition of Sapa completed This transaction generated a special 5 NOK dividend per share for Orkla's shareholders.
Average Cost per share: $8.40 (150 shares)
 |
| Share Price at $9.065 as of 4/1/22 Close |
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.D. Added 20 ORKLY in Fidelity Account-Bought 20 at $9.15 (12/22/21 Post); Item # 2.K. Restarted ORKLY in Schwab Account-Bought 10 at $9.01 (8/6/21 Post)(As discussed in those posts, I am concerned about Orkla's growth by acquisition strategy that has substantially increased the debt level. The stagnant stock price indicates that this concern is widespread)
Dividend: Annually. The next USD dividend for the ADR will be $.3462 per share with a 4/21/22 ex dividend date. The yield will vary in part by the then current NOK/USD conversion rate.
Yield at $8.40: 4.12% (assumes no change in either the dividend and exchange rates and is consequently unreliable as a future number)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21):
Adjusted E.P.S. per share at NOK1.40 down from NOK1.45 in the 2020 4th quarter
The unfavorable comparison Y-O-Y was mainly due to increased input costs and to higher interest payments caused by new debt.
Jotun experienced raw material price increases of close to 60% last year.
The Hydro Power segment had EBIT of NOK702M, up from $42M in the 2020 4th quarter.
Adjusted E.P.S. for 2021 was reported at NOK5.17, up from NOK5.04 in 2020
5.17 NOKs is equivalent to about US$.59. NOK to USD - Norwegian Kroner to US Dollars Exchange Rate At that currency exchange rate, the TTM P/E at a total cost of $8.40 per share is 14.24.
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.D. Eliminated ORKLY in Vanguard Account- Sold 10 at $9.53 and Eliminated in Schwab Account -Sold 10 at $9.53 -Consolidating Position in Fidelity Account (12/22/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $10.37); Item # 1- Sold 100 ORKLY at $10.33 (5/23/21 Post): Item # 1.A. Eliminated ORKLY in Schwab Account-Sold 120 at $9.47 and Item # 1.B. Sold 10 of 110 in Fidelity Account at $9.47 (8/15/20 Post)(profit snapshots = $65.61; also contains snapshots of 2017 round-trips with a total realized gain of $65.45); Item # 4.B. Sold 100 ORKLY at $10.1 (1/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.97); Sold 100 ORKLY-Update On Portfolio Positioning And Management -South Gent | Seeking Alpha August 2015 (profit snapshot =$51.08); Item # 4 Sold 100 ORKLY at $9 (9/6/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $122.48)- Item # 2 Bought 100 ORKLY at $7.61 (1/13/14 Post)
D. Added 1 NVS at $79.4:
Quote: Novartis AG ADR
Closing Price 4/6/22: $90.65 +$2.48
Investment Categories: Dividend Growth/Bond Substitute/Assets Priced in Swiss Francs.
2021 Annual Report: 20-F- SEC Form for Foreign Company: NVS reports in USDs.
 |
| 2021 compared to 2020, page 54 |
NVS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Novartis AG (ADR) Key Metrics | Reuters
Novartis Pipeline | Novartis- Extensive
Investment Categories: Large Cap Valuation/Dividend Growth/Assets Priced in Swiss Francs
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.C. Added 1 at $81.14; 1 at $80.35 (12/22/21 Post); Item # 1.M. Added to NVS-Bought 1 at $83.57; 1 at $82.5 (10/22/21 Post)
Dividend: Dividends are paid annually and are subject to Switzerland's 15% withholding tax for U.S. citizens. The dividend is paid in Swiss Francs and converted into USDs for NVS owners. The dividend yield will consequently vary with the then current CHF/USD exchange rate.
Dividend Information | Novartis
I bought this share on the ex dividend date.
Dividend History for ADR: The penny rate in CHFs is going up throughout this period but the amount paid in USDs may even go down year-over-year based on fluctuations in the CHF/USD conversion rate.
Dividend History in CHFs:
Average cost per share: $83.33 (8 shares)
Dividend Yield at $3.53 annual dividend per share and AC: 4%
Gain on the Sale of its Stake In Roche: Novartis to sell its Roche stake in a bilateral transaction to Roche | Novartis (11/4/21)(Priced at CHF 356.93 per share or about US$389; the total consideration is US$20.7B; NVS bought this stake at US$5B)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): Novartis (NVS) SEC Filed Report
All amounts are in USDs;
Core E.P.S. of $1.40, with the consensus at $1.405 per Fidelity;
Revenues = $13.229B, up from $12.77B in the 2020 4th quarter (+4%,+6% in CC);
Reported E.P.S. of $7.29 includes a $14.6B gain from selling Roche shares;
2021 core E.P.S. = $6.29, up from $5.78 in 2020;
Some major 4th quarter drug revenues: Cosentyx =$1.243B, up 13% in CC, Entresto $949M, up 34% in CC; Gilenya = $656M, down 14%, the largest % gain was Kisqali, a breast cancer drug, up 58% in CC to $258M;
"The Novartis Board of Directors proposes a dividend payment of CHF 3.10 per share for 2021, up 3.3% from CHF 3.00 per share in the prior year, representing the 25th consecutive dividend increase since the creation of Novartis in December 1996"
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3 Sold 108+ NVS at $83.66 (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $968.85); Item # 1 Eliminated NVS-Sold 29 at $86.35 (10/24/18 Post)(profit snapshot $298.77); Item # 3.D Sold 10 NVS at $85.96 and 5 at $86.5-Used Commission Free Trades (10/10/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.98); Item 2.A. Sold 30 NVS at $93.85 (2/3/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $184.26); Item # 3 Sold 50 NVS at $41.86 (6/17/2009 Post)(profit snapshot +$230.94) Since those sell discussions, NVS spun out Alcon Inc. (ALC).
Those sales were prior to NVS spinning off its Alcon unit to shareholders, which occurred in April 2019. Novartis plans for Alcon spin-off on April 9, 2019 The tax cost basis for NVS owned at that time would be adjusted down for that spinoff. Alcon Inc. (ALC)
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (3/10/22): 4 stars with a FV of $91 and wide moat.
Argus (2/18/22): Hold, reduces 2022 adjusted E.P.S. range to $6.35-$6.45 and starts 2023 estimate at $6.8.
S & P (2/7/22): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $96. It is hard for me to understand the hold rating with that 12 month PT, valuation, and dividend yield.
NVS Realized Gains to Date: $1,732.80
E. Eliminated BTE:CA-Sold 304 at C$6.34 (C$3.04 IB Commission):
Quote: Baytex Energy Corp. (Canada: Toronto)
Website: Baytex Energy Corp. - Home
Profit Snapshot: +C$218.32
1 Year Chart as of 3/8/22:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): Baytex Announces Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2021 Results
Net diluted income per share = C$.98
Oil Equivalent Barrels of Production per day (Boe/d): 80,789
Free cash flow per share = C$.24, adjusted to C$.38
In 2021, reduced net debt by 24% to C$1.8B.
In 2021, provided developed reserves increases by 7% to 129 mmboe.
F. Bought Back 20 CNCE at $2.75:
Quote: Concert Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Only Prior Round-Trip: Item # 4.A. Sold 20 CNCE at $19.89 (12/11/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $127.33)
Playing with the house's money.
So it is apparent that the Stock Jocks have soured big time on this name, which has been justified IMO, and the current price reflects little hope for the future.
Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket
Website: Concert Pharmaceuticals
Prior Success: Vertex to Acquire CTP-656 from Concert Pharmaceuticals for the Treatment of Cystic Fibrosis | Vertex Pharmaceuticals ($160M in cash + up to $90M in potential milestones) CNCE later sold its right to receive milestone payments for $32M. Concert Pharmaceuticals Announces Sale of VX-561 Milestones to Vertex for $32 Million (5/17/21 Press Release)
Product Pipeline: CNCE has 1 drug candidate, CTP-543, that is in late stage trials for treating alopecia areata, an autoimmune disorder that causes hair loss. The results of one phase 3 is expected in the second quarter, while the second Phase 3 trial results are anticipated to available in the third quarter. A NDA is currently planned for the 2023 first half. This drug needs to be approved to win this blackjack hand. If the compound fails this stock will probably fall somewhere between zero and 50 cents IMO.
Potential Milestone and Royalties from ABP-786: "currently being evaluated in a number of clinical trials, including Phase 3 trials for the treatment of agitation in patients with dementia of the Alzheimer’s type". CCNE sold its rights to receive 35% of potential royalties with the buyer potentially able to increase its ownership interest to 50% based on the exercise of stock warrants at prices meaningfully higher than the current price. Concert Pharmaceuticals Announces $65 Million Financing ABP-786 failed in one of its phase 3 trials that was reported in 2019 but the licensee is continuing to pursue trials:
Two of the trials are expected to be completed in the third quarter.
Consider to sell: My consider to sell range is $4 to $5.
On 2/1/21, the stock price closed at $7.50, down from the prior close at $10.47, after CNCE reported this drug failure: Concert Pharmaceuticals Announces Results from CTP-692 Phase 2 Trial in Patients with Schizophrenia (2/1/21) The price continued to plunge thereafter.
G. Added 10 GDO at $15.05:
Quote: Western Asset Global Corp Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. (GDO)
Sponsor's Website: Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. (GDO)
Credit Quality: As of 12/31/21
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
Average cost per share this Account: $16.30 (110 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.101 ($1.21 rounded annually)
Yield at AC = 7.42%
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Added 10 to GDO in Schwab Account at $16.17 and Sold 10 at $16.8 ( Post)
Leveraged: Yes at close to 28% as of 4/1/22.
Russian Ruble bonds as of 1/31/22:
I do not know whether GDO still owns those Russian bonds.
The net asset value as of 1/31/22 was at $17.04.
Part of the decline in value since that date is due to a rise in interest rates that would negatively impact a bond's price irrespective of credit related and currency conversion issues.
In addition, the fund has significant exposure to emerging market sovereign debt in addition to those Russian ruble bonds that have suffered a contagion effect from Russia's credit problems which would have contributed to that decline.
The negative impacts on net asset value per share are magnified by GDO's leverage. Borrowing money to buy assets going down in price is not a path to financial success.
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Eliminated GDO-Sold 224+ at $16.47-Used Commission Free Trade (3/3/19 Post)(contains profit snapshots of prior round-trips; the total realized gain was then at $961.09)
H. Eliminated BKH in Fidelity Account-Sold 5+ at $70.55:
Profit Snapshot: +$61.22
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.M. Bought 1 BKH at $60; 1 at $59; 1 at $58; 2 at $57.5 (12/19/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.595, last raised from $.565 effective for the 2021 4th quarter payment.
Last Ex Dividend: 2/11/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): Black Hills (BKH) SEC Filed Press Release
Net income of 71.2M or $1.11 per share with the consensus at $1.277;
"Black Hills is reaffirming its guidance for 2022 earnings per share available for common stock to be in the range of $3.95 to $4.15" based on a list of assumptions provided in the press release
I. Pared FENY - Sold 5 at $20.95:
Quote: Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF
Sponsor's Website: FENY | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity
Expense Ratio. = .08%
Profit Snapshot: +$24.2 (3/10 sale only)
Average cost per share after pare: $14.57
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 3/10/22 after pare |
The AC was reduced from $14.66.
Part of the small ball trading strategy is to sell my highest cost shares into rallies, which is what I am doing with FENY.
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Last 4 Dividend Payments per share = $.585
Yield at $14.57 = 4.02% based on last 4 dividends
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/18/22
Top 10 Holdings as of 2/28/22:
Of those 10 stocks, I currently have small ball position in XOM and CVX and own over 100 shares of WMB.
Of the remaining 98 stocks owned by this ETF, I have positions in KMI (over 100 shares), OKE, and CTRA (recently purchased).
J. Eliminated ED- Sold 3 at $90.12 and 2 at $90.23:
Quote: Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED)
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
Consolidated Edison, Inc. Profile | Reuters
I been eliminating utility stocks in anticipation that interest rates will rise more than currently expected which will negatively impact the appeal of this sector's appeal. Generally, P/E ratios are high and dividend yields are low compared to historical numbers. E.P.S. growth is generally in the low single digits.
Prices have continued to rise, however, since I started this elimination process.
I would emphasize that most of my U.S. utility positions are so small that it does not matter what I do with the stocks.
I eliminated earlier this week my Canadian utility stocks, priced in CADs, which I will discuss in later posts. Those sales produced proceeds of C$15,990 (300 AQN:CA; 100 CU:CA; 100 EMA:CA) I still own the USD priced AQN shares.
Profit Snapshots: +$107.72
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.L. Added to ED in Vanguard Taxable-Bought 1 at. $68.35; 1 at $67.67 (2/6/21 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.79 per share ($3.16 annually), last raised from $.775 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. The recent history is for a small dividend raise during the first quarter. Dividend History | Consolidated Edison, Inc.
Last Ex Dividend: 2/15/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): Consolidated Edison (ED) SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP net income of $224M or $.63 per share; non-GAAP E.P.S. at $1;
Guides 2022 adjusted E.P.S. to $4.40 to $4.60;
"Adjusted earnings and adjusted earnings per share in 2021 exclude the impact of impairment losses related to Con Edison's investments in Stagecoach Gas Services LLC (Stagecoach) and Honeoye Storage Corporation (Honeoye) and the loss from the sale of a renewable electric project. Adjusted earnings and adjusted earnings per share in 2021 and 2020 exclude the impact of the impairment losses related to Con Edison's investment in Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC (MVP), the effects of hypothetical liquidation at book value (HLBV) accounting for tax equity investments in certain renewable and sustainable electric projects of Con Edison Clean Energy Businesses, Inc. (the Clean Energy Businesses) and the net mark-to-market effects of the Clean Energy Businesses. Adjusted earnings and adjusted earnings per share in 2021 exclude the tax impact on the parent company of HLBV accounting and mark-to-market effects of the Clean Energy Businesses"
I viewed the number of adjustments to GAAP unfavorably.
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.G. Eliminated ED in Fidelity Account - Sold 3 at $85.86 (1/20/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $55.69); Item # 2.D. Pared ED in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 1 at $79.95 (5/26/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.51) The only round-trips of any consequence took place in 2011. Item # 2 Eliminated Position in ED at $53.7 (7/14/11 Post)(profit snapshot of all 2011 trades = $786.25); Item # 1 Pared ED-Sold 25 at $52.5 (5/9/11 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 ED at $51.30 (4/7/11 Post)
K. Added to THFF-Bought 3 at $43.96:
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/31/22 after pare |
The gap decline on 12/3/21 was triggered by the earnings report for the third fiscal quarter ending 10/31/21, released after the close on 12/2/21. SEC Filed Press Release
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I was going to ask if a recession will fix the inflation climb?
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to invest now, but find are losing value. So a recession that slowed inflation would help.
But the EU situation described seems to answer that you can have a recession, while inflation continues at the beginning. Does recession eventually stop info inflation?
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Employment going down won't be as much if a leading recession indicator as usual since lack of immigration had hit major industries' employment such as restaurants.
Land: A garden variety recession can slow inflation but not necessarily so.
DeleteIn the 1974 recession, caused in part by the Arab oil embargo, CPI averaged 11.1% and was 10.3% and 13.5% in the 1980-1981 recession.
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1913-
The 2009 Near Depression was severe enough to produce a slightly negative CPI number. Inflation did fall in 2020 to 1.2% from 1.8% in 2019.
Depending on whether inflation has become embedded and inflation expectations, inflation can continue at elevated levels during a recession. A near depression or a depression will likely reduce inflation to below zero, but not in every year during one.
The FED and other central banks have misjudged inflationary pressures that have been building for over a year. Current monetary policies, and those reasonably projected for the next several years, will IMO have no impact on inflation which will simply have to fix itself without regard to central bank monetary policies in the U.S., EU and other developed markets (e.g. Canada, Japan, the U.K., Australia, Nordic nations that operate independently of the ECB, and Switzerland)
Just realized i can put ira funds into CDs, then sell when i figure out items to buy and pay the penalty. There's no bank accounts or money market accounts that pay interest on IRA money that I've found. Bonds are good long term, but i can also boost short term divs with CDs... Maybe from local banks so it's easy to exit.
ReplyDeleteLand: A money market fund yield will not vary based on whether the fund is owned in a taxable or retirement account. The reason that you are seeing no yield or perhaps a .01% yield is that the expense ratios are eating up all of the distributions paid by the owned securities and then some. That may change with the next FED rate hike. Currently, only my Vanguard MM funds are paying something more than .01% and that is due to their low expense ratios compared to other MM funds offered by brokers.
DeleteIf you can buy treasuries commission free in the secondary market, that would be a better alternative than the broker offered CD rates. Fidelity, Vanguard and Schwab do not charge a commission for U.S. treasury trades in the secondary market. I would not pay a commission to buy one.
For example, the Fidelity order order book for the 1.625% coupon treasury maturing on 4/30/23 shows that 1 can be bought at 99.714, producing a yield-to-maturity of 1.901%, somewhat better than the highest coupon paid on a 1 year brokered CD available at Fidelity which is currently at 1.65%
YTM includes realizing the profit at maturity. The current yield would be lower. 1 bonds equals $1,000 in principal amount but pricing is in 1/1Oths. So a 1 bond purchase at 99.714 would cost 997.14 when bought commission free + accrued interest owed to the seller.
If I owned that bond, and wanted to sell it now, I could easily do so at 99.664. The market for treasuries is very liquid.
I do not recall ever selling a non-inflation protected treasury before maturity. I have done a fair amount of trading in long dated TIPs.
Definitely something to consider, that the treasuries and bond offer better rates.
DeleteMy worry is that the value of bonds will go down as rates increase. But if the liquidity is that good at a price that's not too far off, it'd be the better deal.
My Roth money should be in stocks. This would be a way to earn something (over it's current cash/MM position) while waiting for better entry points.
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Market is green this morning. There is still so much exuberance in the market. Unless I missed some news that the chemical poisoning wasn't one or that Biden's decided to do a head in the sand reaction to it (which is possible)... and that's why the market is so risk on this morning.
Land: I use U.S. treasuries as time fillers in a bond ladder strategy where I have a constant flow of redemption proceeds that can be reinvested at higher rates provided the uptrend continues. I view the treasuries as alternatives only to MM funds.
DeleteWhen doing the calculations whether to keep more in a MM fund or to buy treasuries, I try to do make an educated guess whether I would be better off buying a short term treasury, taking into account the current MM rate, the likely pace of increases, the expense ratio eating into the yields, and the fact that the treasury can be bought with a significantly higher coupon now commission free in 3 of my accounts. If I look at what can now be bought in the 1 to 2 year time frame, I believe that the treasury purchase will provide more dollars than keeping the funds used in a MM fund.
Generally, banks will be slow to raise CD rates during periods when short term rates are rising. The treasury market will respond faster to changes in Fed monetary policies that involves rapid increases in the FF rate.
I am currently buying 1 treasury for each time slot, mostly in the 1 to 2.5 year maturity time frame. As rates rise, I may buy more of each treasury and have already bought 2 of a few. I may end up with 5 to 10 of each maturity, depending on fast rates rise.
The Stock Jocks are greeting the 8.5% annual CPI rate with enthusiasm, apparently believing that it can only get better. There was a decline in the percentage month-over-month increase in the core CPI number, up .3% compared to either .6% or .5% increases from 10/21 through 2/22.
AT&T completed its Warner Media spin off yesterday.
ReplyDeletehttps://about.att.com/story/2022/close-warnermedia-transaction.html
I owned 77+ T shares in my Fidelity account and received 18 shares of WBD, formerly known as Discovery Communications.
Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Series A (WBD)
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/wbd?mod=over_search
My cost basis in T shares was adjusted from $26.8 to $20.53. AT&T rose $1.41 per share yesterday to close at $19.63, as some brokerage firms upgraded the stock based on valuation.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/t?mod=over_search
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/04/aep-cfg-evrg-duk-eai-emp-etr-evrg-feny.html