Thursday, June 9, 2022

BMRN, CC, CHIQ, FB, GRX, HRZN, JBI, MAPTX, MDT, NWL, REYN, RHHBY, SU, UL

Economy

The BLS reported that the economy added 390,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate was reported at 3.6%. Over the past 12 months, wages for private payrolls increased by 5.2%. Jobs report May 2022: CNBCEmployment Situation Summary - 2022 M05 Results The U-6 number was reported at 7.1%, up from 7% in April. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization - 2022 M05 Results

ADP reported that the private sector added 128,000 jobs in May. The consensus was at 299,000. ADP National Employment Report

Target warns of squeezed profits from aggressive inventory plan Among the actions being taken to reduce the inventory glut is the cancellation of buy orders. 

Mortgage demand falls to the lowest level in 22 years The robust rise in home prices and the increase in mortgage rates will make first home purchases unaffordable for millions of middle income households. Housing affordability collapses at fastest clip on record It remains to be seen whether the market adjusts as it did in 2005-2007 by significant declines in home prices. For me, I would sell my home for what Zillow says it is worth now and downsize into an apartment. 

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey | MBA

Fed GDP tracker shows the economy could be on the brink of a recessionGDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

European Central Bank confirms July rate hike plans, raises inflation projectionsMonetary policy decisions The ECB will do nothing IMO to restrain inflationary pressures in Europe. The ECB Q/E program will end this time in July, but why has it taken this long to quit given the European inflation numbers? The benchmark rate is a Negative .5% and that will be raised next month to a Negative .25%. The commentators say the ECB by these monetary policy actions have joined the "inflation battle". European Central Bank to end bond buying and lift interest rates in July as it joins inflation battle - MarketWatch What a ridiculous characterization. 

Earlier this week, the Australian CB raised its benchmark rate more than expected to just .85%. Australia's central bank raises rates by 50 basis points The annual inflation rate in Australia was reported at 5.1% through the 2022 first quarter. Consumer Price Index, Australia, March 2022 | Australian Bureau of Statistics I have an AUD position in my IB account. Australian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe The recent AUD/USD dominant trend has been down since February 2021 when the exchange rate was near .79. A recent rally has taken the AUD/USD to .72+ from a low of .69+ in mid-May 2022. 

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At Chernobyl plant, Ukrainians survey damage done by Russians - The Washington Post The Russians stole at least 689 computers, almost all firefighting equipment, 1,500 radiation detectors, and software. Replacing what Russia stole or destroyed will cost an estimated $135M. 

Russia Seeks Buyers for Plundered Ukraine Grain-The New York TimesRussia’s UN ambassador walks out as food shortage blamed on invasion | World | The Times Russia is at least as much a pariah nation as North Korea. 

Theft by Russian soldiers in Ukraine is routine, part of their Christian value system. 

Allegations of torture and disappearances are widespread in Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Kherson - CBS News

‘From Russia With Love’: A Putin Ally Mines Gold and Plays Favorites in Sudan - The New York Times The Wagner Group, a Moscow based mercenary organization, is targeting a grass roots democracy movement in Sudan. “Russia feeds off kleptocracy, civil wars and internecine conflicts in Africa, filling vacuums where the West is not engaged or not interested,” said Samuel Ramani of the Royal United Services Institute. Wagner Group, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, and Russia's Disinformation in Africa - United States Department of State  

Putin Ally, the Leader of the Chechen "Republic", Gets 'Pleasure' From Waging War, Tells Russia to Take Europe Apparently no lesson has been learned from Russia's defeats by the Ukrainian army. No sane person would view NATO as easier to overcome.  

Elite Unit of Russian Army Destroyed in 14-Hour Battle-Newsweek The unit was from the "Pskov-based 76th Guards Air Assault Division". 

See former Russian colonel's big change after criticizing Putin's war on state TV - YouTube

Ruslan Shirin Named as Fourth Russian Commander Killed in 4 Days

Moscow chief rabbi fled Russia after refusal to support Ukraine war - The Jerusalem Post

How the Proud Boys Gripped the Miami-Dade Republican Party - The New York Times

Trump's 'unclimbable' border wall is taking a grim toll - The Washington Post The border wall can be climbed with a 30 foot ladder, but injuries from falls have skyrocketed after Donald raised the height. 

Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein thought Richard Nixon defined corruption. Then came Donald Trump. - The Washington Post

Trump campaign told fake electors in Georgia to use 'complete secrecy and discretion,' email reveal 

Memphis city council doesn't want to provide Trump security because they don't believe he'll pay his bills - Raw Story 

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1. Corporate Bonds and Treasuries

The corporate bonds discussed in A - D below were bought at par value as original issuances offered by Fidelity pursuant to its corporate notes program. 

I am almost 2 months behind in summarizing my bond purchases. Purchases this week will be discussed in late July or early August. 

I am building a bond ladder with the apex in 2024 for new purchases. I currently have $102K in principal amount maturing in that year and will be buying more. 

The Tennessee municipal bonds that I own, mostly purchased in 2017, potentially occupy the long end. They can be called at par value ten years after issuance. The pricing of those bonds represents a current opinion that most, if not all, will not be called when the issuer is first entitled to do so given the rise in long term interest rates.  All of those bonds were purchased in the secondary market, with a weighted average price below par value, and several years after their being sold by the issuers. 

A. Bought 1 Bank of Montreal 3.125% SU Maturing on 4/25/24:  

Issuer: Bank of Montreal (U.S.: NYSE) 

BMO  Analyst Estimates 

Credit Rating: A2/A+

Credit Ratings

I own the common stock in a Roth IRA account. 

B. Bought 1 Bank of Montreal 3.45% SU Maturing on 4/29/25


C. Bought 1 Goldman Sachs 2.7% SU Maturing on 5/30/23:


Issuer: 
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 

Credit Ratings: A2/BBB+


I do not have a position in the common stock. 

D. Bought 1 Citigroup 3.35% SU Maturing on 4/29/24


Issuer: Citigroup Inc.  (C) 

Credit Ratings: A3/A

I do not have a position in the common stock. 

E. Bought 1 Treasury 1.625% Coupon Maturing on 5/31/23 at 99.515

YTM at TC = 2.075%

Current Yield at TC: 1.63

I now own 2 bonds. 

F. Bought 1 Treasury 2.125% Coupon Maturing on 9/30/24 at 98.578

YTM at TC = 2.74%, rounded up

Current Yield at TC: 2.16%, rounded up 

G. Bought 1 Treasury 2.5% Coupon Maturing on 5/15/24 at 99.742

YTM at TC = 2.63%

Current Yield at TC = 2.51%, rounded up. 

H. Bought 1 Treasury 1.625% Coupon Maturing on 10/31/23 at 98.7265:

YTM at TC = 2.498%

Current Yield at TC = 1.646%

I now own 4 including 1 in a Roth IRA account. 

2. Small Ball

A. Added to NWL - Bought 5 at $19.57; 5 at $18.8


Quote: Newell Brands Inc.

NWL SEC Filings

NWL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Website: Newell Brands

Our Brands (e.g. Rubbermaid, Mr. Coffee, Oster, Sunbeam, Foodsaver, Sharpie, Elmer's, Paper Mate, Graco, Coleman, Yankee Candle)

Recent Material NewsNewell Brands Announces Agreement to Sell the Connected Home & Security Business to Resideo Technologies, Inc. (2/7/22). This transaction includes "smoke and carbon monoxide combo alarms, fire suppressants, fireproof safes and other home safety products under the most trusted brands in the industry, BRK and First Alert". NWL expects to receive about $593M in gross proceeds and will use those funds to reduce debt and fund up to $375M in share purchases. 

Resideo is a publicly traded company. Resideo Technologies Inc. (REZI) 

"On March 31, 2022, the company completed the divestiture of the CH&S business to Resideo Technologies, Inc. for a purchase price of $593 million, subject to customary working capital and transaction adjustments. During the quarter, the company also repurchased $275 million of its common shares beneficially owned by Carl C. Icahn and certain of his affiliates."

Newell Brands Completes Divestiture of the Connected Home & Security Business | Newell Brands

Last DiscussedItem #4.E. Bought 5 NWL at $21.34 (2/24/22 Post) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter report in that post. 

Average cost per share = $19.9  (15 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 5/24/22

Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually)

Yield at $19.94.62%, rounded down. 

Last Ex Dividend: 5/27/22 (owned all as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release 

"Normalized net income was $155 million, or $0.36 normalized diluted earnings per share, compared with $128 million, or $0.30 normalized diluted earnings per share, in the prior year period."

Consensus at $.271

GAAP E.P.S. at $.55 

GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation: GAAP included a gain on the disposition of the business described above. 

Revenues: $2.4B, up 4.4% with core revenues up 6.9%

"Reported gross margin was 31.0 percent compared with 31.9 percent in the prior year period, as the significant headwind from inflation, particularly related to resin, sourced finished goods, transportation and labor, and unfavorable impact from foreign exchange more than offset the benefits from FUEL productivity savings and pricing." 

Debt: $4.5B, way too much IMO, particularly in light of rising interest rates and margin squeeze from input cost inflation.  

Cash: $344M

"The company reaffirmed its full year 2022 net sales and normalized earnings per share outlook of $9.93 billion to $10.13 billion and $1.85 to $1.93, respectively."

Outlook for Second quarter: 


NWL's senior unsecured bonds are currently rated at Ba1/BBB-. 

S&P upgraded to BBB- from BB+ in February. 

Debt Maturities: 

The last SU bond offering was $500M in 4.875% notes due in 2025, Prospectus-May 2020 

B. Bought 20 HRZN at 11.84 in Schwab Taxable and 20 in Vanguard Taxable at $11.80



Quote: Horizon Technology Finance Corp. (HZNC) - A BDC 

HRZN SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 (summary of investments starts at page 7)

2021 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 27 and ends at page 63)

Website: Horizon Technology Finance

Management: External

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 1.A. Restarted HZNC in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 10 at $9.29(6/20/20 Post) I still own those shares. 

10 year Chart as of 6/3/22: Bear Market

The 2022 price gap shown in this chart occurred on 3/10/22.The stock closed that day at $13.03 and at $14.55 on 3/9/22. The cause was a stock offering. Horizon Technology Finance Corporation Prices Public Offering of Common StockProspectus (public offering price at $14.35; underwriters discount at $.574 per share; net to HRZN at $13.776 per share before its expenses estimated at $150K. 

The price top occurred on 11/15/21 at $19.28, a price which I view as clearly overvalued. 

Net Asset Value per share history: I view this history as a negative. The performance starting in 2017 has resulted in relatively stable net asset values per share in the $11 to $12 range.    

3/31/22:     $11.68

12/31/21:    $11.56

12/31/20:   $11.02

03/31/20:   $11.48 
12/31/19:    $11.83
12/31/18:    $11.64
12/31/17:    $11.72
12/31/16:    $12.09
12/31/15:    $13.85
12/31/14:    $14.36 10-K at page 54 
12/31/13:    $14.14
12/31/12:    $15.15
12/31/11:    $17.01

October 2010: IPO at $16, net of $14.88 to HRZN after underwriting discount: Prospectus 

Although I once knew the reasons for the substantial decline in NAV per share, I have forgotten the causes and did not attempt to rediscover this information when buying these small stock lots.  The decline did keep me out of the stock for several years. 

When characterizing this history as a major negative, I am taking into consideration that the most of the decline in net asset value per share occurred during an economic expansion starting in 2012 through 2019 with technology stocks outperforming the major stock indexes. 

An investment in the technology ETF XLK at its closing price on 12/31/11 through 6/2/22 produced an annual average total return of 19.40%, even though it pays nominal ordinary dividends. 

HRZN generated an annual average total return of 7.65% over the same period. The share price produced a negative return number and the dividend payments, reinvested into additional shares, lost some of the original dollar values through a net price depreciation.  

Dividend: Monthly at $.10 per share. 

Horizon Technology Finance Announces Monthly Distributions for July, August and September 2022 Totaling $0.30 per Share 

Yield at $11.82: 10.15%

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release 

NII per share = $.26, down from $.31 in the 2021 first quarter

Annualized portfolio yield on debt investments of 12.4% for the quarter 

"Held portfolio of warrant and equity positions in 84 companies as of March 31, 2022" This is a wild card. I do not have the information necessary to assess whether any of the private companies will have a successful IPO. HRZN does provide cost and estimated fair value for these positions. (see 10-Q at pages 10-12). Of the companies listed there, I am familiar only with Mustang Bio.   

Undistributed spillover income of $0.47 per share as of March 31, 2022

Company Risk Assessment of Loans: 

HRZN Baby Bonds: For the most part, given HRZN's poor historical track record, I have confined myself to owning its exchange traded baby bonds {E.G. Item # 4.A. Added 10 HTFA at $24.9; 5 at $24.75; 5 at $24.5 (10/31/20 Post)Item # 4.A. Bought 10 HTFA at $24.14 (6/20/20 Post)} The ones that I have owned in the past, including HTFA, have been called by the issuer. The only one now outstanding is HTFB, a 4.875% SU note maturing in 2026. I prefer now the common stock to that exchange traded bond at its current near par value price. 

Last EliminationItem # 1.B. Sold 30 HRZN at $11.8  (11/18/18 Post)

C. Added 10 GRX at $11.2- Fidelity Taxable

Quote: Gabelli Healthcare & Wellness Trust Overview

SEC Filings

Sponsor's Website: GAMCO

Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars) 

10 Year Annual Average Total Return Through 5/31/22 = 11.24%

Buy discussionsItem # 3.A. Added to GRX in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 10 at $12.22 (4/14/22 Post)Item # 1.H. Bought 10 GRX at $12.27; 10 at $12.14 -Fidelity Taxable Account (2/27/21 Post)

Average cost per share this account: $11.87 (30 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 5/25/22 after add

Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share (regular only)

In addition, the fund may pay a special distribution sourced from capital gains. There was a $.36 per share special distribution that went ex dividend on 12/31/21. 

Yield at $11.87 Using Regular Dividend Only = 5.05%, rounded down 

Next Ex Dividend: 6/14/22

Data as of 5/25 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $13.14

Closing Market Price: $11.22

Discount: -14.61%

Sourced: GRX-CEF Connect (Pricing Information tab)

D. Added 5 GRX at $11.38 in Schwab Taxable

See Item # 2.C. above. 

Average cost per share this account: $12.37  (35 shares)  

E. Added 10 JRI at $13.98-Fidelity Taxable:  

Quote: Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund Overview

The fund describes real assets to include REITs, real estate management, utilities (gas, electric, telecommunication services), and infrastructure companies. The fund will own common stocks, preferred stocks, convertibles and plain vanilla bonds.  

Leveraged: Yes, substantial at 30.72% as of 6/1/22. Leveraged consisted of bank borrowings at a .7% spread to the 1 month Libor rate through July 22, 2022. 

Sponsor's Website: JRI - Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund

JRI SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report: Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund

SEC Filing: Portfolio as of 3/31/22 

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation 

Data Date of 5/25 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $15.93 

Closing Market Price: $13.97 

Discount: - 12.3%

Sourced:  JRI-CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)

Recent Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.J. Added to JRI in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 9 at $14.76  (3/10/22 Post)Item #2.A. Bought 13 JRI in Fidelity Account- Averaged Up (1/7/22 Post)Item # 1.G. Added to JRI-Bought 10 at $11.8; 10 at $11.66 (8/1/20 Post)Item # 1.C. Added 5 JRI at $8.95; 10 at $8.09; 10 at $10.16; 10 at $10.66 (5/16/20 Post)

Average cost per share this account before add: $10.85

Average cost per share this account after add: $11.09 (130 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 5/25/22 after add

Dividend: Monthly at $.0965 per share ($1.157 annually)

There has been some ROC support. The only way for JRI to completely cover this dividend with income is through capital gains. 

Yield at $11.09 = 10.44%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/12/22

Sell Discussions Item # 1.I. Pared JRI Again-Sold 12.661 shares at $16.31-Remaining Shares Bought With Dividends in Fidelity Taxable Account (10/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $53.03); Item # 2.C. Pared JRI-Sold 22.235 at $16.11(8/6/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $42.31); Item # 2.A. Pared JRI-Sold 30 at $15.9-highest cost shares (6/19/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.73); Item # 1.K Eliminated JRI in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 100 at $11.48  (6/6/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.35); Item # 2.A. Sold 102+ JRI at $17.98 (12/22/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $140.67); Item # 1.A. Sold 100 JRI at $17.51(10/30/19 Post )(profit snapshot = $100.41); Item # 4 Sold 100 JRI at $17.23 (10/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $40.45)   

JRI Realized Gains to Date = $480.92

F. Eliminated RHHBY - Sold 10 at $43.24

Quote: Roche Holding AG ADR (RHHBY)

Swiss Francs: Roche Holding AG (Switzerland: SWX Europe)

1 ADR = .125 Ordinary 

Swiss Franc to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

Roche - Pipeline

Website: Roche

Roche | Investors

I have been disappointed with the price action and this recent negative news item: Roche (phase 3 trial of a lung cancer drug failed to meet end its co-primary endpoint of progression free survival) 

After the 2022 annual dividend went ex, I eliminated the position. I will consider buying back the shares when and if the price sinks below $35. I would prefer a price where the dividend yield would be greater than 4%. The last USD dividend for the ADR was at $1.24.  

Profit Snapshot: $27.99

Last Ex Dividend: 3/17/22

Last Discussed:  Item # 1.A. Pared RHBBY - Sold 5 at $49.7 (9/24/21 Post) 

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 1.C. Restarted RHHBY-Bought 5 at $41.6; 5 at $40.68  (4/9/21 Post)

Other Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.A. Added 5 RHHBY at $28.74 (4/2/19 Post)Item # 1.A. Bought 5 RHHBY at $26.3-Used Commission Free Trade (6/28/18 Post)Item #3.A. Bought 10 RHHBY at $28.85  (11/13/17 Post)

Other Sell DiscussionsItem # 4.A. Sold 75 RHHBY at $31.91(12/16/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $118.93); Item # 3.B. Sold 30 RHHBY  at $33.25 (6/7/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $178.87); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 RHHBY at $31.61 (4/8/17 Post)

RHHBY Realized Gains to Date$570.87

Most of my RHHBY purchases were made in anticipation of harvesting the annual dividend and to then sell the shares at a profit.  

Roche reports earnings semi-annually. The financial report for the quarter ending 3/31/22 did not disclose earnings for the quarter but only revenues.  Roche 

The company did reaffirm its 2022 guidance: 

G. Started MDT as a Placeholder in Schwab Taxable- Bought 1 at $99.85; 1 at $97.87; 1 at $95.95:

Quote: Medtronic PLC  (MDT) 

MDT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

MDT SEC Filings 

MDT Key Metrics- Reuters 

MDT Profile - Reuters 

MDT is probably the largest pure play in medical devices. 

Investor Relations | Medtronic - Overview

I started to buy after the Stock Jocks reacted negatively to the last earnings report. 

Average cost per share: $97.89 (3 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.68 per share, last raised from $.63 effective for the next dividend. 

Investor Relations | Medtronic - Dividend HistoryS&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) I own a few NOBL shares. MDT had a 1.44% weighting in NOBL as of 6/3/22. 

MDT is a dividend aristocrat. Dividend Aristocrats In Focus: Medtronic 

Yield at AC = 2.78%, rounded up. 

Next Ex Dividend: 6/23/22

Last Earnings Report (4th F/Q ending 4/29/22): SEC Filed Press Release

"Global supply chain and COVID-19 controls in China created acute impacts to our results in the fourth quarter."

GAAP E.P.S. = $1.10

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.52, up 2%

GAAP to Non-GAAP:

Revenues $8.1B, down 1% with organic at +1%

Revenues by Business Segments: 

Increased Dividend by 8%  

Fiscal Year 2023 Guidance: 

Organic revenue growth 4% to 5%. If foreign currency exchange rates hold, "fiscal year 2023 revenue would be negatively affected by approximately $1B to $1.1B.  

"The company expects fiscal year 2023 non-GAAP EPS in the range of $5.53 to $5.65, including an estimated 20 to 25 cent negative impact from foreign currency translation based on recent foreign currency exchange rates."

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (5/26/22): 4 stars with a FV of $129, wide moat. 

Argus (3/23/22): Buy with a $145 PT

S&P (5/26/22): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $117, reduced from $119

Credit Suisse (2/23/22): Outperform with a 12 month PT of $135, reduced from $142 

Prior Round-Trip Trade Snapshots: +$1,878.09

2011 MDT 239+ shares Net +$883.29

2014 MDT 30 Shares +$914.05

Buying in 1 share lots now is just another indication of my current extreme level of caution

H. Pared SU Again in Fidelity Taxable - Sold Highest Cost 10 shares at $40.1 and 7 at $40.60



Quotes: 

USD: Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

CAD: Suncor Energy Inc. (Canada: Toronto)

Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

SU Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Profit Snapshot: +$237.35 (5/27 and 6/2/27 sales only; YTD this account = $325.21)

New Average cost per share this account: $15.66 (23+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 6/2/22 after second pare

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.47 per share (C$1.88 annually)

Dividends – Stock Information | Suncor

Yield at US$15.66: The yield will vary with the CAD/USD exchange rate. At a .8 CAD/USD, the yield at US$15.66 would be 9.6%.

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 2.K. Added to SU in Vanguard Taxable Account-Bought 2 SU at $20.93 (5/8/21 Post)

Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 2.E. Pared SU in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $36.77 (5/12/22 Post) I discussed the 2022 first quarter earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here. SEC Filing

The stock price has finally returned to where I eliminated a position in 2014. Item # 2 Sold 50 SU at $40.95 (8/16/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $598.08)

I. Added 2 UL at $42.55-Fidelity Taxable Account

Quote: Unilever PLC ADR

The ordinary shares trade in British pence. Unilever PLC (U.K.: London)

If and when the price falls below US$40, I will start averaging down in 5 share lots.  

British Pound to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

ADR Ratio: 1 for 1 

All brands | Unilever global company website

2021 Annual Report

Investors-Unilever

Completion of Unilever’s Unification | Unilever As a result, the Euro priced ADR UN no longer exists. In the past I have owned both the UN and UL ADRs. 

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 2.K. Added 1 UL at $45.36; 1 at $43.9- Fidelity Account(3/31/22 Post) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter report in that post. 

Dividend: Variable for ADR owners due in part to currency exchange rates. 

The last quarterly payment was $.4555 per share with a 5/19/22 ex dividend date. For the ordinary shares traded in London, the amount was £.359.  

The U.K. does not currently withhold a tax. 

The TTM trailing 12 months USD dividend payment was $2 per share.  

Dividend history The payment rate in pounds has remained constant at £.4268 starting with the 2020 4th quarter payment. 

Unilever provides semi-annual earnings reports. For the 2022 first quarter, UL only provides what amounts to a revenue report which it calls a "trading" statement: 

Q1 2022 Results Announcement

J. Eliminated CC - Sold 10+ at $43.14 in Schwab account and 5 at $43.15 in Fidelity Account


Quote: Chemours Co.

CC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SEC Filings

Brands and Products | The Chemours Company

Chemours Co Profile | Reuters

Investor Relations

Profit Snapshots

Fidelity: $99.76 (5/31/22 sale only; $321.77 YTD on 25 shares)

Schwab Account: $186.16

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 3.G. Bought 5 CC at $23.2 in Fidelity Taxable and 4 in Schwab Account at $23.99 (3/31/2022 Post) I noted in that post that my consider to sell range was at >$36. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last raised from $.17 in the 2018 third quarter. 

Last Ex Dividend: 5/13/22 (owned as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): Chemours (CC) SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. = $1.43; 

Non-GAAP net income of $239M or $1.46 per with the consensus at $.922 per Fidelity; 

Revenues = $1.8B, up 23% Y-O-Y; 

Guides 2022 Free Cash Flow to >$550M, up from the previous estimate of >$500M and adjusted E.P.S. to $5.04 to $5.53

This report sent the stock up 17.55% on 5/2/22.

Current Position: None

Other Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.D. Started CC in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $26.6; 5 at $26.14; 5 at $25.4; 5 at $24.8; 5 at $24.3  (1/16/21 Post)Item # 1.Q. Started  CC in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $25.2 (2/20/21 Post)Item # 1.K. Added 1 CC at $24.08-Schwab Account (3/20/21 Post)

Other Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.B. Eliminated CC in Fidelity Taxable Account- Sold 20 at $36.23 (1/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $221.41); Item # 1.D. Sold 22 CC Vanguard Taxable account at $28.5 (1/16/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $45.79); Item # 1.F. Pared CC in Fidelity Account-Sold 5 at $33.81 (5/16/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.11)  

2022 CC Realized Gains to Date (no round-trip trades prior to): $590.23

K. Added to BMRN - Bought 1 at $75.68-Fidelity Taxable

Quote: BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.

Website: BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.

Our Pipeline - BioMarin

BMRN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

BMRN SEC Filings

I bought this share because I did not understand the negative reaction to the latest trial data on BMRN's hemophilia gene therapy which resulted in a 7.25% price decline.  

BioMarin Announces Durable Hemostatic Efficacy Maintained Over 6 years in Ongoing Phase 1/2 Study of Valoctocogene Roxaparvovec, Investigational Gene Therapy for Hemophilia A - May 31, 2022 ("95% Reduction in Mean Annualized Bleed Rate (ABR) and 96% Reduction in Mean Annualized Factor VIII Usage from Baseline Through Year 6 in 6e13 vg/kg Dose Cohort . . . All participants in the 6e13 vg/kg cohort remain off prophylactic Factor VIII treatment at the time of the data cut.  The mean cumulative annualized bleed rate (ABR) remains less than one and substantially below baseline levels; the mean ABR in year six was 0.7 with a mean cumulative ABR reduction of 95% and Factor VIII use reduction of 96% through six years, compared to baseline." The Credit Suisse analyst had a positive opinion about the results summarized in a 5/31/22 research note (available to Schwab customers). 

Possibly the Stock Jocks were concerned, at least in part, by BMRN delaying the resubmission of its FDA NDA to the 2022 third quarter after the agency requested addition data analyses to be included, but not more or longer trials. 

Approval of this therapy is IMO key to BMRN increasing in price. 

With the usual caveat that I have zero training in medical and science related fields, the trial results looked good to me.  

Last DiscussionItem # 2.E. Started BMRN as a Placeholder- Bough 2 at $77.65 in Vanguard Account; 1 at $77.55 (Fidelity); 2 at  $76.95-Schwab Account(6/12/21 Post) 

Average cost per share this account after add: $76.48 (2+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday 5/31/22 after add 

Dividend: None and none expected. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): Biomarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) SEC Filed Press Release  

GAAP diluted E.P.S. = $.63; 

Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.18 with the consensus at $.171 per Fidelity, backing out only the $108M gain on the sale of a non-financial asset; 

GAAP included a $89M, net of tax, "on the sale to a third party of the Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher (PRV) we received from the FDA in connection with the U.S. approval of Voxzogo"

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

Based on that calculation, which results in $105.3M in non-GAAP income, non-GAAP E.P.S. was at $.54.    

Revenues  = $519.4M, up from $488M in the 2021 first quarter; 

Voxzogo was recently approved by the FDA and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) as "the only approved therapy for children with achondroplasia"

Expects to return to double digit revenues growth in 2022; 

Expects a CHMP opinion in mid-2022 on valoctocogene roxaparvovec, a gene therapy for severe hemophilia. Some weakness in the stock may be related to fear about this opinion which could come out any day now.   

The stock tanked in August 2020 when the FDA asked for more data on that treatment, BioMarin Receives Complete Response Letter (CRL) from FDA for Valoctocogene Roxaparvovec Gene Therapy for Severe Hemophilia A - Aug 19, 2020. The stock closed at $118.54 on 8/18/20 and at $76.72 the next day, so receiving EMA and FDA approval for this gene therapy is still viewed by the Stock Jocks as essential to a meaningfully higher price.

2022 Guidance: 

Maximum Position: 20 shares (all accounts)  

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Credit Suisse (6/6/22): Raised 12 month TP to $106 from $105, kept outperform rating. The analyst believes that investors are attributing very little or no value for Roctavin. 

Morningstar (4/28/22): 4 stars with a $105 FV, narrow moat 

S&P (5/17/22): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $115 

L. Added to FB - Bought $50 at $178.99

Quote: Meta Platforms Inc. (META) The stock symbol changed today from FB to META. 

FB SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report

FB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 1.H. (2/17/22 Post)

Average cost per share at $212.64 (3+ shares)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): The problems illustrated by this report are that revenue growth is slowing down and expenses are accelerating at a very fast pace: 


"We expect 2022 total expenses to be in the range of $87-92 billion, lowered from our prior outlook of $90-95 billion. We expect 2022 expense growth to be driven primarily by the Family of Apps segment, followed by Reality Labs."

Free Cash Flow = $8.528B, up from $7.819B in the 2021 first quarter. 

M. Added 2 REYN in Vanguard Taxable at $26.78

Quote: Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN)

REYN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SEC Filings

Brands The main brands are Hefty garbage/trash bags and Reynolds Wrap.  

Last Substantive Buy DiscussionItem # 2.E. Added 3 REYN at $28.39 - Fidelity Taxable Account (3/3/22 Post) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter earnings report in that post. Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN) SEC Filed Press Release 

Average cost per share this account: $29.18  (17 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share

REYN Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at AC this account: 3.15%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/16/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.25

Adjusted E.P.S. = $.26

Consensus at $.257 per Fidelity 

Revenues: $845M, up 12%  

2022 Adjusted E.P.S. Guidance: Low end of $1.56 to $1.7

REYN has suffered margin pressure from input cost inflation. The company has been raising prices to offset  "higher material, manufacturing, logistics and advertising costs."

N. Added $100 MAPTX

History this Account: 

Quote:  Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund Overview 

Sponsor's website: Overview - Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund

Category: Pacific ex Japan

This category has performed well on occasion but has underperformed the S&P 500 over long periods.  

Top 10 Holdings as of 4/30/22

Net Expense Ratio: 1.03%

Matthews Pacific Tiger Investor (MAPTX)-Morningstar (rated 3 stars)

Last DiscussedItem # 4 Restarted MAPTX - Bought $100. (4/11/20 Post) 

Average cost per share  = $24.2 (11+ shares)

Dividends: Annually at a variable rate. 

2021: $5.86 per share

2020: $2 per share

Reinvesting dividends in 2020 (at $33.61) and 2021 (at $27.55) has reduced their value at the current MAPTX price. Fortunately, the amounts were meaningless.  

Last EliminationsItem # 1 Eliminated MAPTX at $27.9 (6/23/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $665.47); Item # 4 Eliminated MAPTX in Fidelity Account (profit snapshot = $2,573.82)

Compared to the S&P 500, this fund has performed poorly over the past 3, 5 and 10 years, but has had periodic robust gains that have allowed me to profitably exit positions at decent total returns. Matthews Pacific Tiger Investor (MAPTX) Performance | Morningstar

Realized Gains to Date: $3,577.91




I am more cautious with this mutual fund than in the past when I was already cautious. 

Based on my long history with this fund, it is clear that total return is dependent on successful entry and exit points.   

The large exposure to Chinese stocks adds substantial country risk. 

Investors have been reminded of country risk this year by what has happened to Russian stocks which can no longer even be traded in the U.S. 

While I view an invasion of Taiwan as a remote possibility, many would have had the same opinion about Russia invading Ukraine even after it amassed troops along the northern and eastern borders and its intentions became clear.  

Other examples of country risk are China's 1 man dictatorship, its lack of an independent judiciary, the recent crackdown on several companies, and the U.S. possibly suspending trading of Chinese stocks in the U.S. for failure to follow financial disclosure rules. SEC Adopts Final Amendments Implementing Mandates of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act | Insights | Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLPChina signals easing of tech crackdown but don't expect policy U-turnCovid outbreak shuts down Chinese city as Beijing and Shanghai return to new normal | South China Morning Post

In addition to perceived enhanced country risk, China's stock market has also suffered this year by its zero tolerance for Covid, which recently caused shutdowns in certain geographic areas including Shanghai. Chinese stocks have rallied as conditions return to normal. 

O. Added 1 CHIQ at $19.34





Holdings: 71
Expense ratio - .71%
Dividends: None were paid in 2021.  

Top 10 Holdings as of 6/7/2022: 

 
Average cost per share: $22.28 (6 shares) 

The same reasons for caution discussed in connection with MAPTX apply to this ETF. This ETF has rallied strongly since this 1 share purchase on 5/27.

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.

23 comments:

  1. Any news today cause that drop? Haven't seen any. So seems to be the usual mood lately of large moves.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The ECB's actions seem out of line with inflation. They're at negative and aiming to stay that way . I haven't considered foreign investments. Makes clear that the factors are different and need to be considered. Well, also the war on that continent factor.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Land: The market gyrations have recently been tied to small moves in the ten year treasury yield. That yield crossed back over 3% which triggers selling. It is clear now that major central banks will be backing out of their extremely abnormal monetary policies. And, the changes anticipated by the Bond Ghouls will not have any material impact on inflationary pressures either in the U.S. or other western countries.

    I increased today my 2024 bond maturity allocation by $15K buying 10K of an Arizona Public Service 3.35% SU maturing on 6/15/24 at less than par value.
    https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C612681&symbol=PNW4134019

    And I am finding more bonds to buy with 2023 maturities including this one issued by Georgia Power which closed today with a 3% YTM:

    https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C874353&symbol=SO4934387


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's what it was, 10 year over 3%? I didn't think to check those rates! Didn't see any articles mention worry over rates. Must be so basic now, articles aren't needed.


      ----

      3.35% is a great return, without any of the gyrations I'm doing to get 3% on limited funds. Yet of course neg return on inflation.

      Bond Ghouls are right that this spot is a mess.

      Delete
  4. IMO the Memphis City Council is right.

    Watching the presentation. Liz Cheney's opening was excellent. They're going straight for the jugular of proving this was a Trump plan, and Trump acted knowingly to further it. Not chaos with some Trump "hopefulness."

    Most interesting idea was that the chaos and violence *itself* was part of the plan... to make it easier to get Pence, replace him, and get a different vote. ...Once Pence said the day before, he wouldn't do it. It then wasn't "spontaneous anger at Pence."

    It's still all like a bad novel.

    ReplyDelete
  5. It's hard to cook old recipes that call for a can of beans. Meaning 16oz. That went to 12oz., 9.5oz. The point of a can is not to have to measure!

    Can of tuna fed a family. Then fed 1 person. When tuna gets down to 1oz can, will they go to negative rates... you'll have to give them a tuna to get an empty can?

    https://apnews.com/article/india-prices-business-d2c8279d39e1304f5623b3a99b56b8cc?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    ReplyDelete
  6. IRA funds are now earning .72% APY at Vanguard in the settlement cash and holding MMs.

    Site lists it as after fees (.1% annual fee).

    ReplyDelete
  7. Probably a good day to buy TZA. So much for inflation topping (which was never going to be.)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: The double and triple short ETFs require exquisite timing to work. I have a small, unrealized loss in a TWM position where the purchase was made at a less than an optimal time.

      For hedging, my approach is to reduce my allocation to whatever needs to be hedged.

      I will be caught up discussing my stock trades in my next post.

      I will not be selling into declines now, except for a few positions where I have been selling into rallies (e.g. energy), and may pick up buying down the road.

      The Stock Jocks have not adjusted yet to problematic inflation continuing and its economic impact on consumer discretionary purchases.

      I doubt there is yet an acceptance that rates will have to move substantially higher than currently expected to have any material impact on inflationary pressures. When and if that acceptance occurs, the bottom may fall out.

      Today, I will be looking at the 2 year treasury note, which is approaching a 3% yield and investment corporate bonds maturing in 2023.

      I am in an ongoing major allocation shift into investment grade and primarily short term bonds (2023-2025, with scattered and relatively small purchases in 2026-27 where I pick up 4%+ yields)

      Delete
    2. I haven't bought a trading ETF in a long time.

      If I do, I'd want to be able to sit at the account and watch closely and do only a day trade with a sell trade ready to be pushed - on a non-stormy day when internet can go down.

      The risk is high vs reward. For $10k in a 3xs, the gain of 1% move is $300.

      ----

      Not much stock buying if you'll be caught up that quickly!



      Delete
  8. The inflation report did increase the odds of a 75 basis point FF rate increase to 14.9% from 3.6% when the FED meetings next week.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

    The probability of a minimum 50 basis point increase remains at 100% for both the June and July meetings. That would raise the range to a minimum of 1.75% to 2% but the odds of at least a 75 basis point increase in July is now at 50.5%, up from 11.5% yesterday.

    The target range was raised 25 basis to .75% to 1% on 5/16/22.

    I did some small ball buying today in stocks that will be discussed next week, adding 10 to FHN, 1 SLG and 5 MPW. The number of stocks that will be discussed next week is smaller than at anytime over the past few years and that will catch me up entirely.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I missed that. It's not the inflation but that it changes the expectation of Fed rates.

      Seems to me, quickly pulling the bandaid off to get inflation down, would prevent the slow bleed of consumers and that would have a better chance of preventing a recession.... even if it caused a market crash and a panicked investor base.

      Well, off to buy gas at $4.89

      Come to think of it, helping Ukraine and stopping Russia earlier and quick would help gas and inflation too. Even if Putin has access to nukes.

      I am inclined to buy some today. Haven't decided what yet.

      Delete
    2. BCDs are risky. They do well after a crash in a rising market but get hit hard in recessions, and are set up for the fall in high markets. Best to trade them and keep a close eye.

      Do REITs have risks where they need to be watched carefully too? They have high divs since they distribute most of their income. High divs tends to mean there's risks to go with it. (I used to know the answer to this...)

      Medicare oriented REITs certainly seem less risky than say Commercial Retail Malls.

      Delete
    3. I bought 1 spy each in reg and roth.

      TXN is below where I bought in 2018! Most of my strong performers that I feel comfortable with the companies, are not as likely to lead now even with divs. I need to figure out new options.

      SPY is now at it's prior resistance. CALF is only 1/2 way back down to it. Divs are getting more attention.

      Delete
  9. The 2 year treasury yield rose 23 basis points to close at 3.06%. The 10 year closed with a 3.15% yield, up 11 basis points.

    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202206

    The next 2 year treasury auction date is on Monday June 27 and I will likely participate.

    https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TentativeAuctionScheduleQ22022.pdf

    It is now possible to pick up about a 3.5% YTM in a Baa1/BBB+ corporate bond maturing in about 18 months.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's a good deal for a bond ladder! Investing and saving have finally changed from 2008.

      3.5% for 18 months gives so much more flexibility.



      Delete
    2. Land: An example is the Enbridge 2.15% SU maturing on 2/16/24 that closed today at 97.24, creating at that price a 3.865% YTM. The bond is rated Baa1/BBB+.

      https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C1020590&symbol=ENB5362645

      REITs have been falling since they are stocks and their debt refinancing costs will be going up, particularly those that have relied excessively on credit facilities that require them to pay a spread to a short term rate like SOFR.

      https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr-averages-and-index

      Today was mostly a sea of red. Some consumer staple stocks managed gains.

      Most of my Canadian reset equity preferred stocks were up slightly. An example would PPLPRC:CA that will reset its coupon in March 2024 at a 2.6% spread to the 5 year Canadian bond yield which closed today up 18 basis points to a 3.338% yield.

      Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PPL-PC.TO)
      C$20.89 +C$0.27 (+1.31%)

      Discussed at Item # 2.A.
      B. Bought 100 PPLPRC at C$15.88 (C$1 commission):

      https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/03/axprica-bhb-btz-fnb-ivz-ppl-pplprcca-t.html

      Par value is $25 for all of the Canadian reset equity preferred stocks that I own.

      Delete
  10. The Stock Jocks and Bond Ghouls have apparently had an awakening, finally coming to a conclusion that 8%+ inflation is not a good thing.

    Inflation is fine provided I do not eat or fill up my car, or buy anything.

    Notwithstanding the hot inflation numbers, TIP prices are moving down as the real yield adjusts to the rise in nominal treasury rates.

    For example, I recently discussed in a comment buying 1 TIP that has a .125% coupon at 99.375 which at least had a positive yield of .208. That purchase was made on 6/7. I just bought 1 more at 96.883 which produces a positive real yield of .545%.

    In both cases, I had to pay the seller the CPI accretion to the original $1,000 principal amount. The inflation factor was 1.12016 (96.883 purchase x. 1.12016 = 108.5244 x. 10 = $1,085.24 in principal paid to the seller plus .$.58 in accrued interest)

    I will now receive the benefit of the inflation accretion to the principal amount + the real yield of .545%. This contrasts with the IBond where new purchases do not have a fixed coupon.

    The S & P 500 has passed into bear market territory.

    S&P 500 Index
    3,766.58 -134.28 -3.44%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx?mod=home-page
    The 52 week high was at 4,818.62

    As rates move higher, the bonds that I have bought this year have gone done in price which is one reason for using a bond ladder approach, building it slowly, buying at below par value, and focusing mostly on short term bonds that can be held to maturity. I will be caught up on my stock buys in my next post and my bond buy discussions made so far today will be discussed in September.

    ReplyDelete
  11. An article published this afternoon in Barron's has some information about prior bear markets.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bear-market-stocks-whats-next-51655150790?mod=hp_LATEST

    Starting in 1929, there have been 24 bear markets. The current one developed fast, just 111 trading days since the S & P peaked.

    The average S&P 500 peak-to-trough decline was 36%. Some were worse (e.g. 1029-1932, 1974 and 2008-March 2009)

    The index took an average of 52 days to hit bottom after entering a bear market.

    The average increase in the index was positive 75% of the time one year after the start.

    I would not place much stock in historical averages since most of the bear markets were not caused by problematic inflation with 1974 being an exception.

    Bear markets will end and can be wealth creation events for those with fortitude and spare cash.

    However, stocks have less appeal to me with interest rates at current levels, even after the decline, and even less appeal with a continued rise in short term to intermediate term rates. Yields are high enough now to satisfy my financial objectives.

    There was a brief inversion of the 2 year treasury yield and the 10 year today.

    The 2 year treasury closed at a 3.4% yield, up 34 basis points from last Friday. The 10 year yield closed at 3.43%, up 28 basis points. Those are huge percentage daily moves.

    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202206

    The odds are now at 82.5% for a 75 FF basis point increase when the FED meets next week, up from 3.1% a week ago.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

    The odds that the FF range will be at least 3.5% to 3.75% by year end now stand at 77.6%. That will temper my buying some until there is more upward adjustment in 1 to 3 year yields. Sweep account yields are still unattractive compared to buying now even with short term rates continuing to rise. Schwab is still at .01%. The 7 day yield for the Fidelity Government MM fund is better but at .42% but still highly unsafistory when I can buy a 1 year treasury bill with a 3% yield.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd01y?countrycode=bx

    That MM fund may not reach 3% at any time within the next year.

    I have moved up discussing at least two recent 2023 corporate bond purchases to my next post. Those bonds have what I am looking for now in yields and credit quality.

    ReplyDelete
  12. This is very interesting data.

    Because of hft and no commissions, this will likely this will move faster than priors in either direction. The one days point is consistent with that.

    There 2020 pre crash highs may be the target for this crash. That's a deeper dive from the highs than usual.

    The inversion is curious. Does it mean anything about the crash extent, since the decline has already started? Markets already in unstable mode, butt it feels like it's waiting for the catastrophe event.

    ---
    Discover bank is now paying .9%. first foundation is still at 1%. I'm counting on pulling in to Ameritrade and investing the same day. Their ach max is 250,00 a day (i need to double check.)

    Still low compared to current bonds.

    True to form, I've seen my first tips are better than ibonds article now that you've started buying.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: Short term rates have popped with the new consensus about FED rate hikes, starting tomorrow and through this year.

      Earlier today, I bought 1 Treasury maturing on 7/31/23 with a YTM of 3.104% and another one maturing on 6/30/23 with a 3.081% YTM.

      A Baa1/BBB+ corporate bond would normally pick up .4% to .5% in yield maturing at the same time. Some are around a .7% to .8% spread to the 1 year treasury at the moment.

      I am not placing much emphasis on a 2/10 year treasury yield inversion given that the FED is expected to push the short end up fast. Going from ZIRP to a 3.5% FF rate by year end will cause a spike in the 2 year yield.

      The 2 year started this year with a .78% yield and was near .1% to .2% for most of 2021.

      https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2021


      The 2 year treasury yield is now at 3.423%, up over 6 basis points.
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd02y?countrycode=bx


      If a recession develops, it takes on average generally 14 months to recoup the decline but that is for a "garden variety recession".

      Delete
  13. The 5 year TIP real yield was at -.01% on 6/9/22 and closed today at a +.73%.

    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202206

    I view the 5 year TIP as the one that is most comparable to the IBond. The IBond requires a 5 year holding period to avoid an interest rate penalty.

    Today, I bought in a Roth IRA account a TIP maturing on 5/15/27 at 98.602. That one has a fixed coupon of .375% which creates a real yield of .655% at my total cost price.

    An IBond purchased today would not have fixed coupon, so the 5 year TIP has a yield advantage of .655% annually. Both will increase the principal amount by the CPI increases.

    One major difference is that I have to pay the TIP seller the increase in principal amount caused by inflation since the bond was originally issued to today. That is a significant number considering the recent inflation rates. The inflation factor was 1.17838 which increased the principal amount of my purchase from 98.602 to $116.191 for 1 bond (or $1,161.91 for 1 bond). The coupon is paid on the adjusted principal amount. The inflation factor changes daily.

    I did some stock buying today which I will not be discussing. I bought $10 of several stocks and that expresses my enthusiasm when I actually have improving alternatives in bond land.

    I have taken a hit over the last 3 trading days. Yesterday was the worst of the three for me. My Fidelity account total return is now at - 4.7% YTD.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I have published a new post.

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/06/eprt-feny-fhn-hbi-mpw-ofs-slg-wcpca-xom.html

    ReplyDelete