Economy:
March CPI Report: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M03 Results
CPI: +3.5%
Core CPI: +3.8%
Month-to-Month CPI and Core CPI: .4%
Fox News twists data on economy and crime to attack Biden - The Washington Post Fox is not a news network.
Why a Second Trump Term Could Be Bad for Corporate America - The New York Times
My Video: Trump Trade Proposals - YouTube
Trump Tariffs: 10% Tariff on All Imports | Tax Foundation The Tax Foundation is a republican friendly think tank. The prediction made in this article is that a 10% increase in the existing tariffs would amount to a $300 billion tax on U.S. consumers.
Russia Seizes Over 650,000 Acres Of Farmland And Other Assets From Company With Ties To 'Unfriendly' Country - Benzinga The company is domiciled in the Netherlands. This is just another reason why western countries need to avoid Russia forever.
Inside a Chinese Ghost Town of Abandoned Mansions | WSJ - YouTube
My general reaction to the inflation news is to slow down my purchases of dividend stocks, since I now expect to receive more than 5% from treasury bills over a longer period than previously expected, possibly extending into the later part of 2024 with 6 month T Bill purchases at auction.
Treasury April Yield Curve:
10 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate: Trending up
4/11/24: 2.4%
12/6/23: 2.16%
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T10YIE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
Viewed by many as the market's prediction of the the average annual CPI rate.
Gold is breaking higher and hitting new nominal highs almost on a daily basis. (My video: Update on Gold Prices - YouTube). Gold is still below the inflation adjusted price of $850 in January 1980. Gold Prices - 100 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends (click inflation adjusted box).
I own shares in the Permanent Portfolio mutual fund that maintains close to a 25% allocation in silver and gold bullion. I have been reinvesting the annual dividend:
 |
| Price as of 4/11/24 Close |
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.I. Added $100 to PRPFX at $47.98 (4/15/23. Post)
Realized Gains to date: $899.1 (snapshots in Item # 3.J
My video: Permanent Portfolio - YouTube
Sponsor's website: The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds
SEC Filed Annual Report for the period ending 1/31/24 (PRPFX information starts at page 5)
+++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $25,000 in principal amount
Treasury Note - Secondary Market: $1,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $8,000 in principal amount
Common Stocks: No Transactions
I started to nibble again last Thursday. I generally cut off discussion of common stock purchases on Wednesday when publishing posts on Friday. I did make $525.06 in common stock purchases yesterday.
Stock Funds: - $33.5
(consisting of $938.04 in proceeds minus $904.54 in purchases)
The primary purchase was the monthly dividend paying CEF MEGI.
Realized Gain Stock Funds: +$233.16
Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$33.5
Exchange Traded Bonds: -$248.51
U.S. Equity Preferred Stock: +$109.5
2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$21,842.40
+++++
Trump and His Orwellian Party:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
"Will no one rid me of this meddlesome priest". The phrase has had many iterations but that is my favorite one. Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest? - Wikipedia That statement is attributed to King Henry II in the presence of 4 knights who interpreted the statement as an order to kill the troublesome priest Thomas Becket which they did in Canterbury Cathedral on 12/29/1170. The phase is now commonly understood as a request to commit violence while retaining a plausible deniability that the order was given.
When reading Trump's statements relating to the judges, prosecutors, and witnesses in his civil and criminal trials, they need to be read in the same way as King Henry's comments to his knights.
Trump ramps up attacks on judges, sparking concerns as criminal trial nears - The Washington Post ("A Washington Post analysis of Trump’s social media posts since the start of his campaign in late 2022 showed that he has gone after judges or their family members by name 138 times.") Republicans either support Trump's attacks or remain silent.
Trump ramps up attacks on judge in hush money case after gag order; Judges, witnesses, prosecutors increasingly warn of threats to democracy in 2024 elections as Jan. 6 prosecutions continue - CBS News
‘Bloodbath’ aside, Trump’s violent rhetoric is unambiguous - The Washington Post
Top GOP Congressional Leaders admit Russian propaganda has infected their parties voters - YouTube
A Look at Trump’s Mistruths and Political Attacks on the Campaign Trail - The New York Times This article provides useful information that summarizes some of the false information and narratives that Trump uses to manipulate the ignorant.
An example is this false statement:
Trump: "While Joe Biden is pushing the largest tax hike in American history - you know, he wants to quadruple your taxes".
That statement is false. Biden has never advocated even increasing taxes on anyone earning less than $400,000.
Trump: Being jailed for gag order violation would be 'great honor' Trump compared himself to Nelson Mandela again. Trump: "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela — It will be my GREAT HONOR"
Trump: "Now, we have Merchan, who is not allowing me to talk, thereby violating the Law and the Constitution, all at once. It is so bad what he is trying to get away with - How was he even chosen for this case??? I heard he fought like hell to get it, and all of the rest of them also! If this Partisan Hack wants to put me in the 'clink' for speaking the open and obvious TRUTH, I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela - It will be my GREAT HONOR."
Breaking down Trump’s attacks on the daughter of the judge in his New York hush-money trial A forensic analysis proved that the account did not belong to the judge's daughter.
Trump’s Lawyers Didn’t Disclose Proposal to Put Up Full $464 Million Bond — ProPublica
Trump tells billionaires he’ll keep their taxes low at $50 million fundraising gala That promise has nothing to do with what is best for the U.S. but is simply a political bargain made in exchange for $50M in cash.
Beyond efforts to contain Trump, his radicalized followers pose growing threat - YouTube This video contains statements made by Kash Patel, who Trump is considering to nominate as his Attorney General:
Patel: "Yes, we’re going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens, who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections — we’re going to come after you. Whether it’s criminally or civilly, we’ll figure that out."
Trump has already made it clear that he supports Patel's plans as recently as last week when he said that the January 6th committed members needed to be jailed.
Patel served in several government positions under Trump. He was a member of the National Security Council, senior advisor to the acting Director of National Intelligence, and chief of staff to the acting United States secretary of defense. He received his law degree from Pace University ranked at #131 in best law schools. Pace University (Haub) - Best Law Schools - US News He worked as a public defender for several years before landing a post on Congressman Devin Nunes staff who retired from Congress to be President of Trump Media.
Inside the Terrifyingly Competent Trump 2024 Campaign | Vanity Fair
Inside Donald Trump’s secret plan to end the war in Ukraine - The Washington Post I call this the Putin-Trump plan. My Video: Putin-Trump "Peace" Plan for Ukraine - YouTube
Some of Trump’s Biggest Political Backers Also Threw Trump Media a Lifeline - The New York Times
House Republican says Russian propaganda is 'being uttered on the House floor' - YouTube
Fact check: Trump makes wildly inaccurate claim that ‘all legal scholars’ on ‘both sides’ wanted Roe overturned Making a constant stream of false statements, and repeating the reality creations, works to persuade tens of millions.
Trump attorney who became a crucial witness against him has departed legal team - YouTube
Haberman: Former Trump lawyer's notetaking is 'disquieting' to Trump - YouTube
Allen Weisselberg: Ex-Trump Org. CFO sentenced to 5 months in jail after testifying falsely The false testimony involved his knowledge that Trump's NYC Triplex had less than 10,000 square feet when Trump was claiming 30,000 on his financial statements. Ask a Trump supporter how that happens.
Kari Lake Called Arizona’s Abortion Ban a ‘Great Law,’ but Now She Denounces It - The New York Times; Kari Lake is now blasting the Arizona abortion law she once praised - YouTube Kari Lake is just revolting.
Donald Trump Accuses Joe Biden of Crossing 'Sacred Threshold Trump accuses Biden, without evidence of course, of being behind all of the civil and criminal cases that have been filed against him. Disgusting Don knows that his cult members will never make any effort to read the indictments or to examine the evidence against him, so he can make wild and crazy claims without fear of his cult seeing through his demagoguery, juvenile taunts, and wild reality creation claims.
Trump is bat sh-- crazy, a phrase used by Sean Hannity to describe him. “Hannity Has Said to Me More Than Once, ‘He’s Crazy’”: Fox News Staffers Feel Trapped in the Trump Cult | Vanity Fair
My Video: Trump's Personality - YouTube
+++
Putin and His Mafia State:
Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
The General Who Predicted The Russian Invasion on What's Next | Ep.9 Gen. Richard Shirreff - YouTube
Inside Putin's brutal Siberian prisons inspired by Stalin - YouTube
Ukrainian defenders destroy Russian BMPs during a battle near Robotyne - YouTube
First Use of the RAM-X UAV on a 2K22 Tunguska AA System - YouTube
Buyan-M Corvette Serpukhov Being Repaired at Kaliningrad After Ukrainian Sabotage - YouTube
+++++
TRP-PD.TO Coupon Reset:
Issuer: TC Energy Corp. (TRP)
On 4/1/24, this Canadian reset equity preferred stock reset its coupon at 5.985%, paid on a C$25 par value, for the five year period commencing on 4/30/24 to, but excluding 4/30/29. TC Energy provides conversion right and dividend rate notice for Series 7 and 8 preferred shares
The coupon resets every 5 years at a 2.38% spread to the five year Canadian government bond. Canada 5 Year Government Bond Overview | MarketWatch The call option is only on the reset dates. The prior coupon was 3.903% to, but excluding 4/30/24.
I own 250 shares.
Buy Discussions Item # 5.A. Added 50 TRPPRD:CA at C$14.9 (9/30/23 Post); Item # 4.A. Added 100 TRPPRD at C$15.59 (7/1/23 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 50 TRPPRD at C$13 (7/3/20 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 50 TRPPRD at C$16.09 (11/2/19 Post)
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
Average cost per share = C$15.05
Yield at AC with Reset Coupon: 9.94%
Snapshot Intraday on 4/9/24: Unrealized gain of C$1,000
 |
| Interactive Brokers Account |
My video on Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks: Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks - YouTube
++
Arrow Electronics 6.125% SU Bond:
Arrow Electronics elected to redeem its 6.125% SU maturing on 3/1/26 early:
When interest rates spiked in 2022 and well into 2023, several corporations raised capital by selling SU bonds that had coupons over 6% but provided for early redemptions without a make whole payment. This Arrow bond was one of those that I bought at less than par value. Item # 2.B. Bought 1 Arrow Electronics 6.125% SU Bonds at a Total Cost OF 99.694 (9/23/23) The optional call was at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest on or after 3/1/24. I mentioned in that post that I did not care whether the bond was called since I was receiving an above market interest rate for this credit quality bond that was purchased at below par value.
I still own 4 Arrow Electronics 3.25% SU bonds that mature on 9/8/24 (2 bought at a 96.691 total cost and 2 at a 98.151 TC; Bond Page | FINRA.org).
I also still own 2 Arrow Electronics 4% SU that matures on 4/1/25 bought at a total cost of 96.796. Bond Page | FINRA.org
++++
1. Small Ball Buys:
A. Added 50 MEGI at $12.32 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Term Fund Overview - Leveraged Balanced CEF
Cost: $615.76
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to MEGI - Bought 15 at $12.28 (3/22/24 Post); Item #1.A. Added to MEGI - Bought 5 at $12.44; 5 at $12.2; 5 at $11.95 (2/23/24 Post)
MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Term Fund - SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 11/30/23
Sponsor's website: MEGI MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Fund
MEGI Portfolio | Morningstar (Lists top 25 holdings)
New Average cost per share: $12.43 (101+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 4/5/24 after add |
Dividend: Monthly at $.125 per share ($1.5 annually)
Yield at New AC = 12.07%
Data Date of 4/5/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $13.95
Closing Market Price: $12.33
Discount: -11.61%
Sourced: MEGI - CEF Connect
The next 50 shares in purchases will be 10 share lots, with each purchase required to reduce my average cost per share.
B. Added 6 CALF at $48.13- Fidelity Account:
Quote: Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF Overview
Cost: $288.78
Sponsor's website: CALF | Pacer ETFs
Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF-Morningstar (currently rated 5 stars)
CALF Portfolio -Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)
The fund selects the 100 highest free cash flow yield stocks in the S&P 600. The fund is reconstituted and rebanced quarterly.
Free cash flow yield is a method criteria used to select value stocks. Free cash flow is calculated by subtracting capital expenditures from cash flow. The resulting number is then divided by enterprise value (market capitalization plus debt minus cash and cash equivalents.
 |
| Excerpt Summary Prospectus |
Expense Ratio: .59%
CALF v. S&P 500 Index Characteristics as of 12/31/23:
CALF vs. S&P 600: 5 Year Annual Average Total Returns through 4/5/24:
CALF: 15.05%
CALF – Performance – Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF | Morningstar
VIOO: 7.9%
VIOO – Performance – Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | Morningstar
Average cost per share: $42.55 (30 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 4/5/24 after add |
This purchase increased my AC per share from $41.15.
Dividends: Paid quarterly at a variable rate
Last 4 Dividends: $.52 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 3/21/24 (owned 24 as of)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Added 8 CALF at $41.95 - Fidelity Account(9/2/22 Post)
2. Small Ball Sells:
Generally, I am able to keep my marginal tax rate at 15% or lower, so it does not make any difference whether I realize a short or long term capital gain.
I am retired and have no earned income. I will reduce the tax bite by owning Tennessee municipal bonds, stocks that pay qualified dividends and shifting income recognition from a year where I might otherwise exceed 15% such as 2024 into 2025.
Tennessee does not have a state income tax.
A. Eliminated FCPVX:
Proceeds: $578.94
Profit Snapshot: +$182.44
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Started FCPVX - Bought $100 at $13.37; $150 at $12.91; $50 at $12.35 (9/26/20 Post)
Sponsor's website: Fidelity ® Small Cap Value Fund-Fidelity Investments
Fidelity® Small Cap Value (FCPVX)-Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)
FCPVX – Portfolio – Fidelity Small Cap Value Fund | Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)
Dividends: Semiannually (mostly capital gains)
Per Share at
2023: $1.026
2022: $1.051
2021: $1.718
2020: $.078
Dividends Received: $3.86 per share
Fidelity Small Cap Value Fund No Load (FCPVX) Stock Dividend History & Date
Last Ex Dividend: 12/21/23
I decided eliminate this small cap value fund and to add to the better performing CALF ETF.
Total Dollar Return: $291.03
Total Cost: $396.5
Total Return: 73.4%
B. Eliminated PEO - Sold 15 at $23.94:
Quote: Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. Overview - A Stock CEF
Proceeds: $359.1
Sponsor's website: Adams Funds
2023 Dividends:
Profit Snapshot: $50.72
Last Discussed Item # 6.A. Bought 10 PEO at $20.86; 5 at $19.96 (1/20/24 Post)
I thought that the rise in energy stocks had crossed the over extended mark. Just an opinion.
Data Date of 4/10/24 Trade: (Click Pricing Information Tab)
Closing Net Asset value per share: $28.72
Closing Market Price: $24.06
Discount: -16.23%
Average 3 year discount: -14.66%
Sourced: PEO - CEF Connect
Top 10 Holdings as of 12/31/23:
Current Position: None.
3. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
The 1 year treasury bill will be auctioned next Tuesday. Those auctions occur on a monthly basis. By purchasing that bill at auction, and holding until maturity, the interest income for tax reporting purposes will be recognized in 2025. I will start to shift more interest income recognition into 2025 with purchases of 6 month treasury bills in July.
A. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 4/8/24 Auction:
182 Day Bill
Matures on 10/10/24
Interest: $258.84
Investment Rate: 5.329%
B. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 4/10/24 Auction:
119 Day Bills
Matures on 8/13/24
Interest: $86.44
Investment Rate: 5.396%
C. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 4/11/24 Auction:
Matures on 6/11/24
Interest: $81.98
Investment Rate: 5.387%
4. Treasury Note - Secondary Market Purchase: $1,000 in principal amount
%205:31:2025%20.png){kind=small}
Total Cost at 99.5355
YTM = 5.12%
Current Yield at 4.77%
I now own 2.
5. Corporate Bonds: $8,000 in principal amount.
A. Bought 2 Ryder System 4.625% SU Maturing on 6/1/25 at a Total Cost of 99.08:
%204.625%25%206:1:25%20.png)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.459%
Current yield at TC = 4.668%
Last Bond Offering (10/23): Prospectus for $400M of 6.3% SU notes maturing on 12/1/28.
I replaced the two Ryder bonds that matured on 3/18/24:
B. Bought 2 Oneok Partners 4.9% SU Maturing on 3/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.456:
%203:15:2025%204.9%25%20.png)
Issuer: The issuer was acquired by ONEOK Inc. (OKE) in 2017. ONEOK Announces Closing of Merger Transaction
I have a small ball position in the common stock with an average cost per share at $22.11 (9+ shares):
 |
| Uses Closing Price as of 4/11/24-Unrealized Gain $555.74 |
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.503%
Current Yield at TC = 4.927%
I now own 4 bonds.
I have 6 Oneok SU bonds that will mature on 9/1/24. I will frequently start to push out maturities from a single issuer with new purchases when I will soon proceeds from other bonds about to mature.
C. Bought 2 MPLX LP 4.875% SU Maturing on 6/1/25 at a Total Cost of 99.272:
%204.875%25%206:1:25%20.png)
Issuer: MPLX L.P. (MPLX)
I own 2 MPLX 4% SU bonds that mature on 2/15/25.
SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (debt is listed starting at page 106)
MPLX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Website: MPLX - Midstream Fuel Logistics & Distribution Services
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.537%
Current Yield at TC = 4.91%
Last Debt Offering (2/2023): Prospectus for $1B in 5% SU maturing in 2033 and $500M in 5.65% SU maturing in 2053. Part of the proceeds were used to redeem a preferred stock that was about to transition from a fixed rate of 6.875% to a 4.652% spread to the 3 month SOFR + the tenor.
D. Bought 2 Amcor Flexibles 4% SU Maturing on 5/17/25 at a Total Cost of 98.347 (IB Account):
%204%25%205:17:25.png)
Issuer: Amcor Flexibles, formerly known as Bemis, a subsidiary of Amcor PLC (AMCR) who guarantees the notes.
AMCR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I own the common stock.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.5658%
Current Yield at TC = 4.067%
I now own 4 bonds.
Last Bond Offering (May 2023): Prospective for $500M Amcor Finance 5.625% SU, Guaranteed by Amcor, Maturing on 5/26/33
6. Exchange Traded Bond:
A. Sold 10 SCCC at $24.85:
Quote: Sachem Capital Corp. 7.75% Notes due 2025
Proceeds: $248.51
Issuer: Sachem Capital Corp. (SACH)
Coupon: 7.5%
Trades Flat.
Last Ex Interest: 3/14/24
Placement in Capital Structure: Senior unsecured bond.
Par Value: $25
Matures on 9/30/25
Optional Call: At par value + accrued and unpaid interest 0n or after 9/4/22.
Profit Snapshot: +$10.11
SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23
7. U.S. Equity Preferred Stock:
A. Bought 5 REXRPB at $21.9:
Quote: REXR-PB
Cost $109.5
Issuer: Rexford Industrial Realty Inc. (REXR) - An Industrial REIT
"Rexford Industrial’s high-quality, irreplaceable portfolio comprises 374 properties with approximately 46.1 million rentable square feet occupied by a stable and diverse tenant base." That is how REXR describes itself.
Component in the S&P MidCap 400 Index
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Sold 30 REXRPRB at $24.99 (7/12/2018 Post)(profit snapshot = $49.82)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.875%
Optional Call: On or after 11/13/21 at par value + accrued and unpaid dividends.
Dividend: Paid quarterly, cumulative and non-qualified (pass through entity)
Yield at $21.9 = 6.71%, rounded up
Last Ex Dividend: 3/14/24
Stopper Clause: Standard. The issuer must eliminate the common share cash dividend before it is legally allowed to defer the preferred stock dividend. The Stopper Clause enforces the preferred stock's superior claim to cash against the common stock only.
Likely to add in 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
The stock market rally earlier today was a sigh of relief that Iran's missile attacks on Israel were largely thwarted which lessens the likelihood that the conflict will spin out of control to include other nations.
ReplyDeleteThe rally was knocked down some by an abrupt rise in interest rates.
U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
4.644% +0.112%
Last Updated: Apr 15, 2024 at 11:52 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page
While that is not a comfortable rate for stock investors, it is still within the historical range consistent with an economic expansion and a bull market in stocks. The period between 1950 to 1966 is instructive on that point. It is bad for heavily indebted companies that have to constantly refinance maturing securities, rely to highly on variable rate debt and are facing headwinds in growing earnings.
I will be buying some stocks today.
I participated in the 3 and 6 month treasury auctions today. The investment rates for both are within the current FF range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
The 6 month Bill, which matures on 10/17/24, was auctioned to produce a 5.366% IR. That IR is not consistent with a rate cut before the September meeting. The forecast for FF rates that is made in that IR is just one prediction about the future.
I just checked the CME FedWatch Tool that now has a 53.2% chance of no cut on or before the July meeting and a 40.2% probability of a 25 basis point cut.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
The 6 month T Bill yield is signaling a zero percent change of a 25 basis point cut on or before the July meeting.
The odds of a rate cut on or before September should increase when and if the inflation numbers reverse their recent uptrend and turn back down. I am not currently anticipating that this will happen. The best case may be just a leveling off at current levels.
Thanks for the update on today's moves!
ReplyDeleteI think it's going to take a while for the expectation of a quick soft landing to unwind. But it doesn't mean we're not going to have a soft landing. It's still possible.
I've tried a variety of things including checking the notify from the cell phone where it always stay signed on to my email. It does not stay signed in. Wonder how long it will take Google to fix that.
I couldn't bookmark and get into the bookmarks either on the cell phone. But I put the latest in a collection (I thing Firefox offers). And now I've got a shot at accessing the blog comments.
Land: The "Notify Me" box appears to me a widespread problem which has existed for at least two weeks. If and when it is fixed, clicking the box will come with a message that follow up comments will be sent to your email address. If that message is not there, it means that clicking the box will have no effect.
DeleteThe stock market responded negatively today to a rise in intermediate and long term treasury yields. There was a nice rally after the opening but it fizzled and then turned negative as interest rates moved higher. I expect that correlation will exist going forward as long as the move is more than a basis point or two.
The ten year treasury yield closed at 4.63%, up from 4.33% on 4/1/24.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202404
I benefit from higher rates since about 70% of my portfolio is in treasury bills and short term corporate bonds maturing within two years. I receive proceeds from maturing securities several times during each week. So with about 12% of the total portfolio in stocks, it is no big deal for me to start buying dividend stocks that are falling in price as rates rise.
I need to modify my previous comment that 70% of my portfolio is in treasury bills, short term CDs and corporate bonds maturing within 2 years and U.S. treasury money market funds.
DeleteAh yes.
DeleteThe correlation of the market pulling back while or because rates increase, seems to continued today.
The most interesting aspect of the Iranian attack and barrage, was that not only Jordan, but Saudi Arabia shot down the missiles. This was a team effort among several countries.
ReplyDeleteGood Morn SG, I have been busy and am catching up on your blog and vids( which are very helpful to me in understanding the nuances of legal matters facing MR trump. I see you have not written about ADX since 2013 and wondered if u still have an allocation in the stock /cef portion of your holdings and if u thought that over the years given change in leadership, this cef will be able to return approx goal of 6% per year; I understand this is a guess based on history; but I am dedicating some of my portfolio to future generations. thanks in advance, best gastroJ;;; ps, i get this is NOT advice!!!!
ReplyDeleteG. I last discussed ADX in a 11/4/23 Post:
ReplyDeleteItem # 3.B. Added to ADX - Bought 5 at $16:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2023/11/acco-adx-bmy-bnl-clpr-egbn-elc-f-glq.html
If you click the ADX symbol on the right column, discussions of transactions will appear starting with the most recent. If you enter ADX in the search box, then the references will not be in chronological order and will include both discussions of transactions and references where no transaction is discussed.
I currently own ADX in my Schwab taxable account. The position is 48+ shares with an average cost per share of $15.84. I also own shares in 1 or 2 Roth IRA accounts.
In that last post discussing a purchase, I mentioned that my trading gains for ADX starting in 2008 totalled $3,239.71. I started to trade ADX in 1984 but do not have profit snapshots prior to 2008. The current management team is more aggressive than the prior one and will own stocks like Meta Platforms and Amazon.
Link to top 25 holdings
https://www.morningstar.com/cefs/xnys/adx/portfolio
This is a link to the 2023 SEC filed annual report:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2230/000110465924025596/tm241742d1_ncsr.htm
For the fund to continue paying out at least 6% annually in dividends, and avoid sourcing part of the dividend payments through a return of capital (ROC), the fund must realized capital gains.
ADX has been around a long time, starting operations just prior to the 1929 stock market crash and the onset of the Great Depression. It survived by avoiding buying stocks using borrowed money.
The cost of investments as of 12/31/23 from unaffiliated issuers was $1,450,717,842 valued then at $ 2,489,792,426. So there is a lot of unrealized gains to support the current management distribution of at least 6%. If the stock market crashed than so will that cushion to support the dividend. ADX will probably not source its dividend from ROC.
The affiliated issuer is the CEF PEO: cost of $33,970,033 and valued at $45,113,148 as of 12/31/23
In recent years the annual distribution rate has been more than 6%.
Click Distributions Tab
http://www.adamsfunds.com/funds/diversified-equity/
As shown there, most of the annual distribution is sourced from long term capital gains. In 2023, the annual distribution rate was 8.1%. Of the $1.3 per share in dividends, $1.15 was sourced from long term capital gains and only $.15 from dividends. Almost all of the dividend is paid in December.
thanks u! ill take a look at your posts!
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I have published a new post:
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The "Notify Me" box is not working, but I will continue to post this message about publishing a new post, even though no one will receive the email notification.
I didn't receive the notification. But I did come looking for it as soon as I got a chance.
ReplyDeleteMy dad's visit is coming to an end. We've left my house, and I'll stay at my dad's for a couple weeks. Head to my sister's for Passover in the middle for a few days. My niece is inviting all sorts of friends. So it's going to be a lot of people, & guess who's doing the cooking? I have two hopes. That it tastes good, and that I don't poison anybody.
Looking forward to being able to catch up more in a few weeks when I'm on my own.
Meanwhile, the last few days have been expected but sad to watch, as a 35k has left my portfolio between stocks pulling back and paying taxes.
Still, if it pulls back for real for about 10%, I'll finally have that chance lol, to do that 401k conversion. I'm going to do it this year one way or another.
Off to go check out the new blog entry.
Oh and I had said a year or so though, that Google is slipping. There's more sloppiness. This is one more example.
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