Friday, April 19, 2024

AOD, AY, EPRPRC, FTS, JRI, KIM, MEGI, NSAPRA, PAVE, REXRPRB, SPTN, TAC, WBA

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Economy

Powell has now started to dial back his expectations for rate cuts, finally acknowledging that inflation is proving to be too sticky at current levels and has actually been moving up some in the month-to-month numbers. 

Powell Statements: "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence. . . . Right now, given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it’s appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work."

Gold is shining ‘bright like a diamond’ and could hit $3,000 says Citi

March Existing-Home Sales Descended 4.3% in March The median existing homes sales price increased by 4.3% to $393,500 compared to March 2023. 

The Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to 15.5%, with the consensus estimate at 0%. The index for new orders increased 7 points. The current shipments index rose 8 points to 19.1. April 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Any number higher than zero is an expansion. 

The Fed - Monetary Policy: Beige Book April 2024: "Overall economic activity expanded slightly, on balance, since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth—up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity." 

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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post

Treasury Bill Purchases at Auction: $17,000 in principal amount

Corporate Bond Purchases: $12,000 in principal amount

Common Stocks: +$1,602.02 (No Sales)

Stock Funds: +$54.22

(consisting of $243.85 in purchases minus $189.63 in proceeds)

Net Inflow Stocks/Stock Funds: +$1,656.24

U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks: +$512.59

2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$20,186.16

2023 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$27,091.82

The outflow from stocks/stock funds is primarily due to the risk free yields in treasury bills taking into my investment objectives that deemphasizes capital appreciation in favor of capital preservation and income generation. 

Even though I added to my stock allocation this week, I did not move the needle by a measurable amount. 

Allocation in Fidelity Account-Treasury bills and CDs at are included in Fidelity's bond computation in this snapshot:  

This snapshot excludes treasury bills and CDs:  

The bonds that are covered in the preceding snapshot are corporate and Tennessee municipal bonds. The long term position noted above is in Tennessee municipal bonds with some of those falling into the intermediate term category.     

When I include my other taxable accounts, the total stock allocation would be somewhat lower than 12%. 

This chart shows the ‘dangerous’ stock market risk Baby Boomers could be facing - MarketWatch Since starting this blog in 2008, I have been pointing out the situational risk discussed in this article. They are prolonged periods when the stock market produces no total returns and even a negative total return adjusted for inflation. One of those periods was 1/1/1966 through 7/31/1982 when the average annual total return for the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation, was -1.813%. S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment (click the inflation adjusted box). 

There were two other long period, one lasting 26 years starting with the October 1929 crash and the other being 13 years starting in 2000. The measurement starts with a high point and then ends when the S&P 500 returns to that level. 

As I have pointed out, the problem for someone who is retired and relies on stock investments is that  one of those long bear market periods occurs during retirement. 

The following are quotes from one of my posts on this topic: 

"For an individual investor, ten years is a very long time, and to have stocks fail as an asset class for a decade could easily be a major disruptive event in their lives. Siegel has yet to come to grips with the fact that the major averages are currently at levels seen in 1998 even after the spirited 34.3% rally in the S & P 500 off the low in early March 2009. . . . Another problem with Siegel is that he fails to come to grips with the long periods where stocks fail as an asset class and the importance of that failure to individuals who face really serious situational risk issues.  That risk is extremely important to the vast majority of individual investors. It would include the risk, for example, of retiring soon after the start of a major bear market depending on a stock portfolio to provide income.  Then, during the bear market, stocks plummet over 50% and corporations including most banks cut or eliminate their dividends, the primary source of income from stocks for individuals. " To Professor Siegel: Time for a Re-Think (5/13/2009 Post)

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Putin and His Mafia State

Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war

HIMARS Destroys a Buk SAM System With Nice Ammo Cookoff - YouTube

Ukraine blow up Russian airfield in Crimea which houses Putin's Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopters - YouTube 

Russia launched last week a missile attack targeting a hospital and residential buildings in Chernihiv. Russian missiles slam into downtown Chernihiv, killing at least 13 - YouTube Russia is a terrorist state ruled by a war criminal and violent psychopath.    

Crimea Videos Show Huge Explosions as Russian Air Base Attacked

Secret Russian foreign policy document urges action to weaken the U.S. - The Washington PostNew report shows role of Republican useful idiots in weakening U.S., advancing Putin's goals - YouTube

Backfire K1 Destroys a Russian Pantsir SAM System - YouTube

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Trump and His Orwellian Party:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

Trump tells reporters he would testify in hush money trial - YouTube

Fact check: Trump’s false and unsubstantiated claims about his Manhattan criminal case 

My Video: Trump NY Felony Trial - YouTube

Russian troops advance in Ukraine as Kyiv runs low on air defenses - The Washington Post Trump and his minions in Congress are responsible. 

Truth Social Investors Try to Keep Hope Alive as Stock TanksTrump tries to boost support for Truth Social as DJT stock tanks Trump will do his Carnival Barker routine hoping to keep DJT defying gravity until he can unload shares on his True Believers. 

Trump posts "72 hours until all hell breaks loose" ahead of hush money trial - YouTube

Fact checking Trump and Johnson’s election integrity announcement 

Truth Social investing is about faith in Trump, not business fundametals - The Washington Post Notwithstanding their losses, the Trump True Believers want to buy more shares, which Donald will gladly sell to them when his lock-up expires or earlier with Board approval. 

'A criminal enterprise': Fmr. National Enquirer Exec. Editor tells all amid Trump trial - YouTube

OAN and Smartmatic settle election defamation case 

Judge warns Trump over juror intimidation in hush-money tria  - YouTube

The New York AG wanted more information about the surety bond that Knight Speciality posted in the NY civil fraud case. The bond was $175M and was allegedly secured by $175M in cash held by the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust. (See my video: Trump Surety Bond Issue NY Civil Fraud Case - YouTube). 

When Trump's attorneys replied to that request for more information, one of the documents, marked as Exhibit E, was a pledge agreement signed by Donald Trump Jr. on behalf of the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trump, the apparent owned of the Schwab account that had the cash.

The signature page did not grant a security interest to Knight Specialty Insurance but to the Federal Insurance Company: 

Federal Insurance is a subsidiary of Chubb that issued the surety bond in the second E. Jean Carroll case, the one that included a $65M punitive damage award. I view the pledge agreement to be invalid with that signature page and could not be enforced by Knight Speciality Insurance, if challenged, given the inconsistency in who received the pledge.  I would assume that this error has now been corrected, but the court has not yet responded on the impact, if any, of the original error. Is the insurer providing Trump's fraud bond eligible to do so? | Insurance Business America

The republican governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu, is considered to be a moderate Republican. Sununu said that he would be voting for Trump.  

George Stephanopoulos asked Sununu this question: "

"So just to sum up, you would support him for president even if he is convicted in classified documents. You would support him for president even though you believe he contributed to an insurrection. You would support him for president even though you believe he's lying about the last election. You would support him for president even if he's convicted in the Manhattan case. I just want to say, the answer to that is yes, correct?

SUNUNU: Yes, me and 51 percent of America."

'This Week' Transcript 4-14-24: White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby, Gov. Chris Sununu & Sen. Tina Smith - ABC News

Governor Sununu, Judge Merchan Ruling on Access Hollywood, Status of Trump's Appeal 1st Carroll Verdict - YouTube 

Fact check: Donald Trump attacks Jimmy Kimmel for something Al Pacino did  After more than 8 years of observation, all of Trump's supporters must be deemed to be fully aware of his mental condition: 

Trump STILL Mad About Oscars Joke & Thinks Jimmy Kimmel is Al Pacino in New Unhinged Post - YouTube

Prosecutors file notice of uncharged misconduct they'll use on cross-examination if Trump testifies - YouTubeProsecutors offer up Trump's long list of uncharged bad acts The list can be found here

Red states threaten librarians with prison-The Washington Post

Kari Lake tells supporters to ‘strap on a Glock’ for election - YouTube

Trump juror quits over fear of being outed after Fox News host says she should scare TrumpFox "News" Anchor Jesse Watters recklessly describe jurors to create chaos in Trump hush money trial - YouTubeIf the jury convicts, there is a real danger that the more violent Trump supporters will find and harm them. 

Donald Trump's Juror Remarks Could Land Him in Hot WaterHe should be thrown in a cell for that’: Trump’s mob boss tactics threaten Hush Money trial - YouTube Trump posted this comment from the Fox propagandist Jesse Watters: "They are catching undercover liberal activists lying to the judge in order to get on the Trump jury." Trump probably violated the gag order by reposting that comment.  

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1. Common Stock Small Ball Buys

A. Started KIM - Bought 10 at $18.05; 5 at $17.58

Quote: Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM) - Internally Managed Retail REIT

Cost: $268.38

KIM is "North America’s largest publicly traded owner and operator of open-air, grocery-anchored shopping centers and a growing portfolio of mixed-use assets. As of December 31, 2023, the Company had interests in 523 shopping center properties . . . aggregating 89.7 million square feet of gross leasable area (“GLA”), located in 28 states. In addition, the Company had 21 other property interests, primarily through the Company’s preferred equity investments and other investments, totaling 5.5 million square feet of GLA."

The 523 properties does not include the ones acquired on 1/2/24 when KIM consummated its acquisition of RPT Realty. 

KIM SEC Filings 

KIM SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report 

Website: Kimco Realty

Average Cost per share: $17.89 (15 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually), last raised from $.23 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment. There was a $.09 special dividend paid in the 2023 4th quarter related to the profit realized by selling shares in Albertsons that is in the process of being acquired by Kroger. 

KIM Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $17.895.37%, rounded up. 

Last Ex Dividend: 3/6/24

Tax Treatment of 2023 DividendsKimco Realty Corporation Announces 2023 Dividend Tax Treatment 

Recent NewsKIM Announces First Quarter Transaction Activity Highlighted by the Sale of 10 Former RPT Properties for $248 Million (3/27/24); KIM  Closes Acquisition of RPT Realty (1/2/24)(The acquisition of RPT adds 56 open-air shopping centers, 43 of which are wholly owned, comprising 13.3 million square feet of gross leasable area, to Kimco’s existing portfolio of 527 properties. The all-stock transaction, including the assumption of debt and preferred stock.. ")

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23): SEC Filed Press Release 

FFO = $.39 per share 

Occupancy: 96.2%, a 70 basis point sequential increase 

2023 Diluted FFO per share: $1.57, down 1 cent from 2022

The increase in interest expense is negatively impacting FFO year-over-year comparisons. 

The interest rate on KIM's credit facility, priced at a spread to a SOFR short term rate, was 6.21% as of 12/31/23, page 38 Annual Report There were no borrowings under that facility as of 12/31/23, page 89.  

The last bond offering was $500M of 6.4% SU notes maturing in 2034.  Prospectus (10/23). 

Prior to that offering, KIM sold $650M in a 4.6% SU maturing in 2033 (8/22).  

Earlier in 2022, KIM sold $600M of 3.2% SU notes maturing in 2032. The he benchmark treasury was at 1.875% as of 2/15/22. FWP 

SU Bonds: I prefer owning the short term SU bonds that provide me with a higher yield. 

I own 6 SU bonds. 

3.3% SU Maturing on 2/1/25 (4); Bond Page | FINRA.org

3.85% SU Maturing on 6/1/25 (2), Bond Page | FINRA.org (originally issued by Weingarten that was acquired by KIM)

Last SU Bond Purchase DiscussionItem # 5.B. Bought 2 Kimco 3.2% SU Maturing on 2/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.11 (3/28/24 Post) The YTM was then at 5.617%. 

B. Added 5 FTS at $37.92; 5 at $37.63 - Schwab Account


Quotes: 

USDs: Fortis Inc.

CADs: Fortis Inc.  (Canada: Toronto)

Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

Cost: $377.71

Website: Home

Our Companies

Investment Categories: Bond Substitute/Dividend Growth 

New Average cost per share: $38.7 (25 shares)

DividendQuarterly at C$.59 per share, last raised from C$.565 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment. 

Share Information

Fortis Announces 4.4% Increase in 4th Quarter Dividend Marking 50 Years of Dividend Increases (9/19/23)

Yield at US$38.7 AC: The yield can not be computed without knowing what the CAD/US exchange rate will be for each dividend payment. The total for the last 4 dividends, as converted into USDs, was $1.7. Using that annual number and an AC of $38.7, the yield would be about  4.39%. The yield will go up or down based on the CAD/USD exchange rate.  

Next Ex Dividend: 5/16/24

Last EliminationItem # 2.J. Eliminated FTS - Sold 10 at $45.16 (3/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot $61.85)

Last DiscussedItem # 3.E. Added 5 FTS at $39.07 (3/28/24 Post)  

Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 1.C. Added to FTS - Bought 1 at $39.38; 1 at $38.38, (2/23/24 Post) I discussed the 4th quarter earnings report in that post.  Press Release

Reset Equity Preferred StockI own 150 shares of the Fortis reset equity preferred stock FTS-PM.TOItem # 2.B. Bought 50 FTS.PRM at C$12.4 (5/23/20 Post)Item # 3.A. Bought 50 FTS.PRM at C$16.28 (3/14/20 Post)Item # 2. A. Bought 50 FTS.PRM at C$17.55 (11/23/19 Post) That preferred stock will reset its coupon in December 2024 at a 2.48% spread to the 5 year Canadian government bond yield. Par value is C$25 and dividends are cumulative. The coupon is currently 3.91%. 

C. Added 5 SPTN at $18.81


Quote: 
SpartanNash Co. (SPTN)

Cost: $94.05

Investment Categories: Bond Substitute and Possible Masochistic Contrarian Value 

SpartanNash "operates two complementary business segments – food wholesale and grocery retail. Its global supply chain network serves wholesale customers that include independent and chain grocers, national retail brands, e-commerce platforms, and U.S. military commissaries and exchanges. . . On the retail side, SpartanNash operates 144 brick-and-mortar grocery stores, primarily under the banners of Family Fare, Martin’s Super Markets and D&W Fresh Market, in addition to dozens of pharmacies and fuel centers."

SPTN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SPTN SEC Filings

SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (Description of businesses at pages 4-6; properties listed at pages 16-17; net interest expense in 2023 was reported at $39.887M, up from $22.791M in 2022 and $13.851M in 2021; debt is priced at spreads to SOFR, see page 50 which resulted in a 7.03% average interest rate in 2023)  

Last EliminationItem # 2.F. Eliminated SPTN - Sold 15 at $29.01 in Fidelity Account; 20 at $31.05 in Vanguard Account; 10 at $30.64 in Schwab Account (3/23/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $421.49

New Average cost per share: $19.77 (10 shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.2175 per share ($.87 annually), last raised from $.215 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment. In the 2014 first quarter, the rate was at $.12 per share. 

SPTN Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $19.77 AC = 4.4%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/13/24 (owned 5 as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23):  The market reacted negatively to this report. 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Revenues: $2.245+B, down 2.8%

E.P.S. = $.30

Adjusted E.P.S. = $.35 

Consensus at $.38

Reconciliation GAAP to Non-GAAP for the Quarter and Year: 

2023 E.P.S. $1.5

Adjusted 2023 E.P.S. = $2.18

2024 Adjusted E.P.S. Guidance $1.85 - $2.1 (not helpful)

The main problem is that debt is at spreads to short term rates. 

Interest costs have skyrocketed upward staring in 2022 as discussed above. 

I am not surprised that the guidance is down given the increases in interest costs. 

The issue is whether this damaging effect is more than adequately priced into the stock, assuming no further rises in short term rates with the next directional change being down. I suspect that may end up being the case but future predictions are at best guesses.  

D. Added 10 TAC at $6.1

Quote: Transalta Corp. (TAC)

Cost: $60.95

TAC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Website: TransAlta - A Clean Energy Solutions Company

The company owns wind, solar, hydro and gas generating facilities. 

Facilities - TransAlta

Projects in Development - TransAlta

New Average cost per share: $7.09 (50 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.055 per share

Last Ex Dividend: 2/29/24

I have nothing to add to my recent discussion. Item # 1.F. Added 5 TAC at $6.51; 5 at $6.32  (3/22/24 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC filed Press Release

E. Added to WBA - Bought 5 at $17.75

Quote: Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA)

Cost: $88.75

WBA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

WBA SEC Filings

WBA F/Y 2023 Annual Report 

Investment Categories: Bond Substitute and Possible Masochistic Contrarian Value

Last DiscussedItem # 1.H. Started WBA - Bought 5 at $20.14; 5 at $19.74 (12/2/23 Post) I mentioned in that post that the dividend yield then reflected a consensus that the rate would be cut.  

Walgreens is a troubled company. It was finally kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in February 2024. Walgreens replacing GE on the Dow (6/19/18)

The problem is that consumers are increasingly buying product from online retailers who sell products cheaper. The pharmacy operation is also coming under competition from Amazon. 

Walgreens is also losing money on its health clinics, Village MD, located in its stores. In the last quarter, WBA wrote down its investment in those clines by $5.8B. Walgreens (WBA) earnings 2nd F/Q 2024 The company closed 124 of those clinics. 

The push into healthcare is probably necessary for survival longer term, but it will be a rocky road in successfully making that transition from just a high priced retailer with pharmacies. Besides the pharmacies located in the retail stores, the other healthcare operations include the VillageMD clinics and Shields Health Solutions

The question is whether the current price reflects the problems without factoring in a possible successful transition down the road. 

Another issue was a $5.5B after tax charge taken in the last fiscal year for opioid related claims. Those involved lawsuits for filling opioid prescriptions. Teva, Allergan, CVS, and Walgreens Finalize Opioid Settlement Agreements    

WBA has about 8,800 retail locations in the U.S. Over 3/4th of Americans live within 5 miles of a WBA store. The international segment accounts for about 16% of revenues. 

New Average Cost per share: $19.21 (15 shares)

My confidence in the transition's ultimate success is reflected in my monetary exposure

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, slashed from $.48 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment. 

WBA Dividend History | Nasdaq

A slash was needed sooner IMO. 

Yield at $19.21 AC = 5.2056%

Last Ex Dividend: 2/16/24 (owned 10 as of)  

Last Earnings Report (Fiscal Quarter Ending 2/28/24): This is the second fiscal quarter for the 2024 fiscal year. 

SEC Filed Press Release

Revenues: $37.052B, up from $34.862B.

GAAP E.P.S. ($6.85), compared to +$.81 in the 2023 second fiscal quarter.

GAAP E.P.S. included two large non-cash impairment charges. The largest was $5.8B after tax charge related to VillageMD goodwill and the other was for $455M related to the U.S. pharmacy retail segment. 

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.2, up 3.4% and +2.8% using constant currency

GAAP To Non-GAAP Reconciliation 

I can understand why someone could look at the previous snapshots and say no thanks to buying shares. 

Other Recent NewsWalgreens Boots Alliance Sells Shares of Cencora For $992 Million of Proceeds (2/7/24); Walgreens Boots Alliance Sells Shares of AmerisourceBergen for $1.85 Billion of Initial Proceeds (8/3/23)

SU Bonds

Item # 1.C. Sold 2 WBA 3.45% SU Bonds at 100.727 (7/12/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $34.04)

Item # 4.B. Sold 2 WBA 3.3% SU Maturing on 11/18/21 at 102.127 (9/14/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $62.54) 

I currently own 2 Walgreens 3.8% SU bonds maturing on 11/18/24. Bond Page | FINRA.org The SU debt is currently rated Ba2/BBB-.  When I purchased these 2 bonds in June 2022, the ratings were Baa2/BBB. 

Based on my credit risk concerns, which are not currently acute, I will own no more than 2 WBA SU bonds at any given point in time. So I will need to receive the proceeds from the 2 bonds that mature next November before buying 2 more. I will not buy any when and if both Moody's and S&P have junk credit ratings on the SU debt. 

10-Q for the F/Q Ending 2/28/24 Debt is listed at page 17.The November 2024 note is the next one to mature. The company did reduce its debt by $2.6Bin FY 23. Capital was raised by selling shares in Cencora Inc. (COR), formerly known as AmerisourceBergen, as noted above. Far better IMO to reduce debt using the proceeds from those stock sales, given the operating problems and debt levels, than to keep the shares hoping for larger profits.   

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (3/28/24): 5 stars with a fair value estimate of $33. 

S&P (3/28/24): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $23.

F. Added to WPC - Bought 5 at $54.75; 5 at $53.3

Quote: W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC) -Primarily a Net Lease Industrial REIT

Cost: $540.25

SEC Filings

2023 SEC Filed Annual Report

Website: Leaseback Build-to-Suit Real Estate Finance | W. P. Carey

New Average Cost per share: $60.45 (42+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.8645 per share ($3.46 annually)

I am reinvesting the dividend. 

WPC Dividend History | Nasdaq

W. P. Carey Announces Tax Treatment of 2023 Dividends

As previously discussed, the WPC dividend was cut to account for the spinoff of Net Lease Office Properties (NLOP)W. P. Carey Announces Completion of Spin-Off of Net Lease Office Properties

Yield at New AC per share: 5.72%

Last DiscussedItem # 1.D. Added to WPC - Bought 5 at  at $55.55 (3/22/24 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here.  SEC Filed Press ReleaseSupplemental and SEC Filed Investor Presentation

G. Added to AY - Bought 5 at $17.49; 5 at $16.9

Quote: Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure PLC (AY)

Cost: $171.93

Website: Atlantica- Sustainable Infrastructure

AY SEC Filings (foreign company forms)

Corporate Presentation Nov-2023.pdf

Credit Profile-Atlantica

Last DiscussedItem # 1.E. Added to AY - Bought 5 at $18.25; 5 at $17.9 (3/1/24 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Release and SEC Filed Slide Investor Presentation 

New Average cost per share: $18.63 (45 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.445 per share ($1.78 annually)

AY Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at New AC9.55%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/11/24 (owned 35 shares as of)

I have nothing further to add to my recent substantive discussion. 

2. Small Ball CEF and ETF Fund Trades

These trades are just an example where I sell a stock fund that pays almost nothing in dividends and then buy other funds that have much better dividend yields. 

JRI and MEGI are balanced CEFs. I will classify CEFs as stock funds when the stock allocation is over 50%. 

Many of the securities owned by JRI and MEGI have been adversely impacted by the recent rise in intermediate and longer term interest rates.

AOD, JRI and MEGI pay monthly dividends. 

In my Fidelity account, a goal reached earlier this year was to go over $200 in monthly dividends paid by CEFs. I am now moving toward $250 per month. I will consider selling my highest cost lots when I can do so profitably, thereby lowering my average cost per share and increasing my dividend yield. 

I want to have a cushion of monthly dividend income over $200 so that those sell transactions will not lower the total amount below $200 per month. 

I will consider reducing a CEF position when I can profitably sell my highest cost lots, prior to any return of capital adjustment to the tax cost basis, for a profit and when the discount to net asset value per share is more than 5% below the 3 year average discount.  

A. Added to JRI - Bought 10 at $10.85 (Vanguard Account):

Quote: Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund Overview - A Leveraged Balance CEF

Cost: 108.5

Sponsor's website: JRI - Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund | Closed-End Fund | Nuveen

JRI SEC Filings

Last DiscussedItem # 1.A. Added to JRI - Bought 50 at $11.5  (3/22/24 Post)Item # 2.F. Added to JRI - Bought 10 at  $9.98; 10 at $9.74 in Vanguard Taxable Account (10/28/23 Post)

Average cost per share$10.86 (187+ shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.10 (ROC supported)

JRI Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at New AC : 11.05%

Last Ex Dividend: 4/12/24 (owned 177+ as of)

Data Date of 4/16/24 Purchase

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $12.66

Closing Market Price: $10.86

Discount: -14.22%

Average 3 year discount: -11.94%

Sourced: JRI - CEF Connect 

Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth (JRI) Portfolio | Morningstar (links top 25 holdings)

Last EliminationItem # 3.A. Eliminated JRI in my Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 130 at $12.13 (3/11/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $184.6)

Other Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.I. Pared JRI Again-Sold 12.661 shares at $16.31-Remaining Shares Bought With Dividends in Fidelity Taxable Account (10/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $53.03); Item # 2.C. Pared JRI-Sold 22.235 at $16.11(8/6/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $42.31); Item # 2.A. Pared JRI-Sold 30 at $15.9-highest cost shares (6/19/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.73); Item # 1.K Eliminated JRI in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 100 at $11.48  (6/6/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.35); Item # 2.A. Sold 102+ JRI at $17.98 (12/22/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $140.67); Item # 1.A. Sold 100 JRI at $17.51(10/30/19 Post )(profit snapshot = $100.41); Item # 4 Sold 100 JRI at $17.23 (10/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $40.45)   

JRI Realized Gains to Date$665.52 (includes $19.97 realized gain from selling 9 shares in my Vanguard account in July 2021 that was not discussed in posts) 

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis.  

B. Added to MEGI - Bought 5 at $11.45 (Fidelity Account): 


Cost $57.25

MEGI SEC Filings

MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Term Fund - SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 11/30/23. 

Sponsor's website: MEGI MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Fund

MEGI Portfolio | Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)

I discussed MEGI in my last post Item # 1.A. Added to MEGI - Bought 50 at $12.32 - Fidelity Account (4/12/24 Post) 

New average cost per share: $12.39 (106+ shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.125 per share ($1.5 annually)

Yield at $12.39: 12.11%, rounded up

Last Ex Dividend: Today, 4/19/24 (owned all as of) 

Data Date of 4/16/24 Purchase

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $13.28

Closing Market Price: $11.34

Discount: -14.61%

Sourced: MEGI - CEF Connect

C. Added to AOD - Bought 10 at $7.81 - Fidelity Account

Quote: abrdn Total Dynamic Dividend Fund Overview - A Leveraged Stock CEF

Cost = $78.1 

Last DiscussedItem # 2.A. Bought 5 AOD at $7.95 (2/2/24 Post) 

Sponsor's website: abrdn Total Dynamic Dividend Fund, Inc.

AOD SEC Filings

AOD SEC Filed Annual Report for the the period ending 10/31/23 (leverage is discussed at page 32)

SEC Filing-Holdings as of 1/31/24 

abrdn Total Dynamic Dividend (AOD) Portfolio | Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)

New Average cost per share: $7.91 (226+ shares) 

Snapshot Intraday on 4/18/24 after add

Dividend: Monthly at $.0575 per share ($.69 annually)

ROC supported. The fund is in a position to cover the dividend through realized capital gains but has not been doing so. As of 1/31/24, the total cost of investments was reported at $809.479+M and was valued then at $1.013+B. 

AOD Stock Dividend History & Date

Yield at $7.91 AC: 8.72%

Next Ex Dividend: 4/22/24 

Data Date of 4/18/24 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $9.28

Closing Market Price: $7.80

Discount: -15.95%

Average 3 year discount: 11.94%

Sourced: AOD - CEF Connect

D. Eliminated PAVE - Sold 5 at $37.93


Quote: 
Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF

Proceeds: $189.63

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.A. Sold 5 PAVE at $35.92 (2/15/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $29.45); Item # 7.D. Eliminated PAVE - Sold 6 at $28.19; 5 at $28.15(4/28/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $54.36) 

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 2.Q. Bought 8 PAVE - Multiple Purchases with an AC at $22.38 (3/6/21 Post)

Sponsor's website: U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF

Expense Ratio: .47%

Global X US Infrastructure ETF (PAVE) Portfolio - Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)

Profit Snapshot: $37.78

Dividend: Paid Semiannually at a variable rate. 

Last 2 Dividends: $.2359 per share 

Yield at $37.93 = .006%

Last Ex Dividend: 12/28/23

3. U.S. REIT Equity Preferred Stocks

Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

A. Added 5 EPRPRC at $18.9; 5 at $18.5



Cost: $186.98

Issuer: EPR Properties (EPR)

Last DiscussedItem # 5.A. Restarted EPRPRC - Bought 10 at $19.31 (3/8/24 Post) I discussed the last EPR financial report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23 and Supplemental

New Average cost per share: $19 (20 shares)

Yield at $19: 7.5658%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/27/24 (owned 10 as of) 

Preferred Stock Prospectus

Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock, senior only to common stock.  

Par Value: $25

Coupon: 5.75%

Dividends: Paid Quarterly, Non-Qualified and Cumulative

Conversion into Common Stock: The conversion feature is currently assigned no value, or close to it, based on the preferred stock price.   

That has not always been the case as shown by some price levels before the pandemic, including those of some of my prior sales. The current conversion price is at $58.59 as of 3/31/24: Summary of Series C Preferred-Shares.pdf At some point, the conversion feature may start to positively impact the share price, as it has in the past, but it is difficult to foresee that happening anytime soon given the troubles of major tenants in the movie theater business.  

The conversion price started at $71.34 and has drifted down as determined by a complex formula. One component of that formula is the amount that common share quarterly dividend exceeds $.685 per share.  

This REIT was hit hard by the pandemic. It will take time, possibly several more years, before the conversion feature is assigned some value .

Other Sell Discussions: The conversion feature was assigned some value in 2018, when I sold shares above par value as highlighted below. In October 2018, the closing prices for the common shares ranged from $67.21 to $69.38 and hit an intraday highs at $70.86 and at $72.18 in September and November 2018. The conversion feature had value at those prices.  


B. Added to REXRPRB - Bought 5 at $21.58

Quote: REXR-PB

Cost = $107.86

Issuer:  Rexford Industrial Realty Inc. (REXR) - An Industrial REIT

SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23

Par Value: $25

New average cost per share: $21.74 (10 shares)

Yield at New AC6.756%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/14/24

Coupon: 5.875% paid on the $25 par value

Dividends: Paid Quarterly, non-qualified and cumulative. 

I have nothing further to add to the discussion in my last post. Item # 7.A.  (4/12/24 Post) 

C. Added to NSAPRA - Bought 5 at $22.05; 5 at $21.5

Quote: NSA-PA

Cost: $217.75

Issuer: National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA) - Internally Managed Storage REIT

I have a small ball position in the common stock. 

NSA SEC Filings

SEC Filed 2023 4th Q. Report 

Last Discussed:  Item # 5.B. Added to NSAPRA - Bought 5 at $22.56 (3/8/24 Post)Item # 2.C. Bought 10 NSAPRA at $23.15 (2/9/24 Post) 

New Average cost per share$22.47 (25 shares)

Prospectus 

REIT Equity Preferred Stock 

Par Value: $25

Coupon: 6%

Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative. 

Yield at $22.47  AC:  6.68%, rounded up

Last Ex Dividend: 3/14/23 (owned 10 as of)

Optional Call: At par value + accrued and unpaid dividend on or after 10/11/22. 

Maturity: None, potentially perpetual 

Stopper Clause: Standard   

Currently adding in 5 shares lots at the lowest price in the chain. 

4. Corporate Bonds

A. Bought 2 Borgwarner 3.375% SU Maturing on 3/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.981 (IB Account)

Issuer: BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) 

BWA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

BWA SEC Filings 

BWA SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23 

BWA SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report Debt is listed at page 99. This SU note is the next one to mature. 

FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 5.642%

Current Yield at TC = 3.44%

B. Bought 2 Goldman Sachs BDC 3.75% SU Maturing on 2/10/25 at a Total Cost of 98.282 (IB Account): 

Issuer: Goldman Sachs BDC Inc. (GSBD) 

I have a small ball position in the common stock. Item # 1.D. Added to GSBD - Bought 5 at $13.51 (11/4/23 Post) 

GSBD | Goldman Sachs BDC Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

GSBD SEC Filings 

GSBD SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report Debt is listed at page 126. This note is the next SU to mature. For BDCs, which I view as high risk in part due, in part, to paying out all or almost all net investment income in common stock dividends, I will generally avoid maturities over 2 years from the date of purchase and focus more on buying the first to mature SU. 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Rating: Baa3

YTM at Total Cost: 5.92%

Current Yield at TC = 3.816%

C. Bought 1 Ventas LTD 3.5% SU Maturing on 2/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.255

Issuer: Operating subsidiary of  Ventas Inc. (VTR) who guarantees the notes. 


Prospectus 

I no longer have a position in the common stock. 

VTR SEC Filings

SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 12/31/23 

Finra page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 5.748

Current Yield at TC = 3.56%

I now own 5 bonds.  

I had 4 Ventas bonds mature on 4/15/24, see snapshots in Item # D.  and F. below.  

I have 5 Ventas bonds that will mature on 5/1/24. 

This is another example of replacing recently matured bonds with new purchases from the same issuer that extend the maturity out some. 

D. Bought 2 General Motors Finance 4.35% SU Maturing on 4/9/25 at a Total cost of 98.813 (IB Account): 


Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of General Motors Co. (GM) 

GM does not guarantee the notes.  

2023 SEC Filed Annual Report for GM Financial 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB  

YTM at Total Cost: 5.61%

Current Yield at TC = 4.4%

Last Offering GM Financial SU Bonds: Prospectus (4/24)

I had two GM Finance bonds, along with several others, mature on 4/13 and 4/15 in my Fidelity account:

E. Bought 1 FNB 5.15% SU Maturing on 8/25/25 at a Total Cost of 98.533

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB-

YTM at Total Cost: 6.29%

Current yield at TC =  5.227%

F. Bought 2 Arrow Electronics 4% SU Maturing on 4/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.46 - Vanguard Account

Issuer: Arrow Electronics Inc. (ARW) 

ARW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

ARW SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB- 

YTM at Total Cost: 5.68%

Current Yield at TC = 4.06%

I now own 4 bonds. 

I recently received the proceeds from 2 Arrow bonds that were redeemed early. 

I own 4 Arrow SU bonds that mature on 9/8/24. Bond Page | FINRA.org

In my Vanguard account, I received proceeds from 4 corporate bonds on 4/16/24 and will use those funds to buy corporate bonds 

Cheniere: Redeemed Early with a Small Make Whole Payment

Ventas: I also had 2 mature in my Fidelity Account

Last Bond Offering (4/2024): Prospectus for $500M of 5.875% SU Maturing in 2024. Proceeds will be used to redeem a 6.125% SU maturing in 2026, page S-6. 

G. Bought 2 Nextera Capital 4.45% SU Maturing on 6/20/25 at a Total Cost of 98.622


Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) who guarantees the notes. 

NEE is a utility holding company and a component of the S&P 500. 





Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 5.64%
Current Yield at TC = 4.51%

I own 4 Nextera Capital SU bonds that mature on 9/1/24. I had 16 Nextera Capital bonds mature on 3/21/24, which includes 2 in a RI account. 

4. Treasury Bill Purchases:  

A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 4/15/25 Auction

182 Day Bill

Matures on 10/17/24

Interest: $130.31

Investment Rate: 5.366%

B. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 4/15/24 Auction

91 Day Bill

Matures on 7/18/22

Interest: $66.35

Investment Rate: 5.395%

C. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 4/16/24 Auction:  

1 Year Treasury Bill

Matures on 4/17/25

Interest is taxable in 2025 when held to maturity. 

Interest: $99.39

Investment Rate: 5.177%

D. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 4/17/24 Auction:  

119 Day Bill   

Matures on 8/20/24 

Interest: $86.61

Investment Rate: 5.406%

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.

11 comments:

  1. Dividend growth investing touts that you do that as a substitute for our interest environment. But if dividends are going to be cut, as you mentioned, it'd be good to diversify one's portfolio. Something I should think about.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: Dividend cuts are more of an aberration during economic expansions. Most of the cuts over the past year have been in the Office REIT sector or companies like Walgreens that have experienced operating and other problems that required a dividend cut.

      The real test is what happens during a recession. Banks are particularly vulnerable for dividend cuts when loan losses and non-performing loans soar. A period like the Near Depression in 2008 resulted in a large number of banks reducing their quarterly dividends to 1 cent per share and issuing stock at very depressed prices.

      My approach now is to emphasize treasury bills and short term corporate bonds more than dividend stocks. In my next post, I am already up to discussing the purchase of $16,000 in principal amount of corporate bonds maturing mostly within the next 12 months and no later than January 2026, while my dividend stock purchases that will be discussed is currently around $300. I will almost be participating in next week treasury bill auctions and the 2 year treasury note auction.

      Yesterday was a strange day in the market. Even though my stock weightings are very low, I was up over $1,000 in both my Schwab and Fidelity accounts in that allocation yesterday. There was a significant downward spike in prices of the high flyers (NVDA down $84.71 or 10%), and money was moving into the dividend stocks that I own.

      Delete
    2. DGI is touted as a way to survive crashes. But it seems it needs to be in a diversified portfolio that doesn't use only that.

      Are the lack of rate cuts helping bank stocks? Which would explain why your accounts would go up since you have a subspecialty in them.

      Delete
    3. Land: I have dumped most of my regional bank stocks. My allocation can range up to $60K to $80K but is now probably below $7K.

      The primary profit source for regional banks is their net interest margin, the difference between their borrowing/deposit costs and the interest earned on loans and investment securities.

      NIM continues to be under pressure and is down Y-O-Y as is E.P.S.

      One problem is that the owned security portfolio, particularly the mortgage backed securities, were bought before the FED started to raise rates and had low coupons.

      To the extent that rates stay up for longer, the banks can reinvest the proceeds from maturing securities into higher yielding ones and that will improve NIM. But that will take a lot of time given the too long duration of the investment portfolio and the fact that duration of mortgage backed securities increases as rates move higher (e.g. fewer refinancings in mortgage pools).

      Another issue is that more commercial property loans are going bad, so there is a pick up non-performing loans and charge offs for several banks.

      I may start to nibble in some bank stocks where NIM has at least started to trend up from recent lows.

      My largest sector allocation is probably equity REITs at the moment. I am also seeing small gains in packaged food stocks that I own like GIS, KHC, and CAG.

      My relatively small allocations in utility and energy stocks have been moving up.

      I own energy infrastructure companies that pay good dividends and those stocks have been trending up in price except for TRP.

      Most of the BDCs that I own have been moving up some as well.

      KMB had a good day in response to its earnings report:

      Kimberly-Clark Corp.
      $136.04 +$7.11 +5.51%
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/kmb?mod=search_symbol

      On the day that NVDA went down 10% and other high flyers were down a lot, it helped that I did not own those stocks as dividend stocks that I did own went up in price.

      When I discussed that NVDA decline in the video, I attributed it to market dynamics meaning in that case, as I said, that too many of the thundering herd try to exit at the same time.

      Delete
    4. Thanks, that's interesting stuff from the banks to the other items that you're in. Lots to think about.

      That exit of the thundering herd got my attention. It's part of the over enthusiasm and deflation that in my mind signals change and caution.

      Delete
  2. I seem to be out of step with the market. I don't see rate cuts as particularly important right now for guiding stock prices. Get the market thinks the lack of rate cuts matters.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Land: The consensus last quarter was that the Fed would cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points before year end which was the prediction made by a majority of FED members in the March projection materials. The market is no longer expecting that much because of inflation.

    Even the federal futures contracts, which have been more optimistic about rate cuts than the forecasts embedded in T Bill yields, now has the more probable than not scenario (52.1%) as 1 rate cut on or before the December meeting with a 15.8% probability of no cut rate which was at just .5% a month ago.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

    The last three months have shown an acceleration of inflation which, if continued, would put a rate hike back on the table.

    The increase in interest rates are negatively impacting corporate profits for a large of companies, particularly those who benefited from variable rate loans, priced at spreads to short term rates, when the FF rate was near zero, but who are now paying 6% to 8%. (see, e.g. the SPTN discussion in Item # 1.C.) Every company that sold bonds when interest rates were abnormally low are having to refinance upon maturities at significantly higher rates.

    From a long term historical point of view, there is nothing abnormal about the current interest rates, but the psychological impact is negative given the extremely long time period that rates were extremely low by historical standards.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Okay, so it's about lack of cuts impacting business borrowing in there for earnings. It's just that the flip side, once there's rate cuts there's a good chance it's due to a slowdown, so earnings will be affected too.

      For me these rates are very normal too. I held between 4% and 6% CDs for years.

      Delete
  4. I published a video discussed yesterday's stock market (4/19) which was strange.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMXiRiWz-Q0&t=337s

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I got a chance to listen while I was cooking for the holiday. It was a bifurcated day. Thanks for the explanations.

      Delete
  5. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/04/amcr-bnl-lxp-nsa-orkly-psec-rexprc-ryld.html

    ReplyDelete