Economy:
August CPI: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M08 Results
CPI Annual: +2.5%, down from 2.9%
Core CPI Annual: +3.2%, unchanged
CPI Month-to-Month: +.2%, unchanged
Core CPI Month-To Month: +.3%, up from .2%.
Pretend Expense of Owners Equivalent Rent (weighted at 26.825% in CPI, more in Core CPI): +5.4% annual and +.5% month-to-month. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category - 2024 M08 Results
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Employment Situation Summary - 2024 M08 Results
I discussed the August jobs report in a comment published on 9/6/24.
Discussed at Jobs report August 2024-CNBC
U.S. job market slows but it's not yet a 'three-alarm fire': economist
The European Central Bank cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points earlier today. This is the ECB's second cut in 3 months. The deposit rate is now at 3.5%. European Central Bank rate decision in focus ahead of Fed meeting
Household Debt and Credit Report - Federal Reserve Bank of New York In the 2024 second quarter, household debt rose $109B to $17.8T.
Trump Tells Republicans to shutdown government if voter ID law is not passed Trump wants voters to prove citizenship. Trump: "THE DEMOCRATS ARE TRYING TO ‘STUFF’ VOTER REGISTRATIONS WITH ILLEGAL ALIENS. DON’T LET IT HAPPEN - CLOSE IT DOWN!!!" The House Republicans may cause a shutdown on October 1, 2024. Republicans threaten a government shutdown unless Congress makes it harder to vote | Vox
10 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 9/11/24: 2.04%, viewed as the market's prediction of the average annual CPI rate over the next ten years.
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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $12,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $2,000 in principal amount.
Tennessee Municipal Bonds: $10,000 in principal amount (AAA rated)
Bond CEF: +$412.75 (150 shares of MIN)
Exchange Trade Bond (EMP): +$113.75
EMP is a first mortgage bond issued by Entergy Mississippi.
U.S. Common Stocks: -$1,782.92
(consisting of $2,563.21 in proceeds minus $780.29 in purchases)
Canadian Common Stock: -C$3,479 (converted to US$2,574 for allocation purposes only)
Stock CEF: +$81.3
Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$4,275.62
2014 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$35,310.73
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Trump and His Party: Trump is the republican party. They are one and the same.
Yesterday, Trump brought Laura Loomer, one of his chief advisors, as his guest for the 9/11 ceremony. Loomer posted a video last year that claimed 9/11 was an "inside job" and has suggested that the Bush administration had staged the attack to cover up losing a trillion or so dollars. Trump attends 9/11 anniversary with Laura Loomer, who shared video claiming “9/11 was an Inside Job!” | Media Matters for America
Trump Again Disgraces a Sacred American Space - The Atlantic; Trump’s Disastrous Choice for 9/11 Memorial Guest Shocks Everyone | The New Republic; Trump attends 9/11 event with a far-right activist who pushed a conspiracy theory about the tragedy
One of Trump's first comments after 9/11 was that he owned the tallest building in NY after the attack, 40 Wall Street, which was nowhere close to being the tallest. On 9/11, Trump pointed out he now had the tallest building in Lower Manhattan. He didn’t. - The Washington Post
President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling
ABC debate moderators live fact-checked Trump’s false claims from the stage | CNN Trump needs to be fact checked in real time. He is incapable of making accurate statements and uses false statements and narratives to manipulate those who are willfully ignorant and who consciously choose to remain so.
Fact check: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris debate on ABC News | CNN Politics
After his poor debate performance, widely panned and criticized, Trump claimed that the debate was "rigged" and that the government "ought to take away" ABC's broadcast license. Trump says Harris debate was rigged, ABC should lose license
Trump blames everybody but himself - The Atlantic
Sean Davis, CEO and Co-Founder of the Federalist, was more hysterical than Trump, arguing that ABC should have its license revoked and the debate-rigging “moderators” needed to be charged with criminal election fraud and interference.
Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris for president | CNN Swift signed her post endorsing Harris "Childless Cat Lady". Elon Musk felt compelled to respond:
Trump made this statement at a 9/7/24 rally in Wisconsin: "Trump is always right. I hate to be right. I hate to be right. I’m always right." Former President Trump Campaigns in Mosinee, Wisconsin | C-SPAN.org
Trump warms up for debate by threatening to jail election officials Trump threatened donors, lawyers and political operatives as well. (My Video: Trump Reveals Daily His Deeply Authoritarian Nature - YouTube)
Dick Cheney will be voting for Harris. Dick Cheney says he’s voting for Harris in November and Trump ‘can never be trusted with power again’
The fact that several prominent republicans have publicly stated that Trump is unfit to be President will not have a meaningful impact on those planning to vote for him.
Maybe a few conservative republicans will not vote for Trump, writing in someone's name as Paul Ryan will do, or just not voting for President, and even will do what was previously unthinkable, voting for Harris, like Dick Cheney, Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger who believe that Trump is a threat to American democracy, which is obvious, and must be defeated in November.
Adam Kinzinger calls out GOP for silence on Donald Trump
The 2012 republican candidate for President, Mitt Romney, voted to convict Trump twice on Articles of Impeachment and his running mate Paul Ryan stated that Trump was unfit to be President. Paul Ryan says Trump puts himself "above the Constitution," calls him "unfit for office" | Salon.com; Impeachment vote: Mitt Romney just did something no senator’s ever done-Vox; Why Mitt Romney Voted to Convict Trump - The Atlantic
Romney has declared that he will not vote for Trump and will write in someone's name, possibly voting for his wife. Mitt Romney says he won't vote for Trump for president – Deseret News
Dick Cheney was the republican Vice President for 8 years, served as a congressman from Wyoming for a decade, was Gerald Ford's Chief of Staff and was formerly the Chair of the House Republican Conference and the Republican House Minority Whip.
Trump called Dick Cheney and Paul Ryan RHINOs which in TrumpWorld means a conservative Republican. Trump is the RHINO. The way to end Trump's hold over their party is to vote for Harris in droves, creating a near landslide for Harris that Trump will not accept and will question but will look ridiculous doing so.
Trump lashes out at women who accused him of assault after court hearing to appeal verdict in Carroll sex abuse case | CNN (9/6/24) Referring to Carroll, Trump said he "never met her,""never touched her," and that she "fabricated" the sexual assault claim. Only a fool would repeat statements that a jury has found to be legally defamatory.
Trump's reptilian brain is unable to process rational thoughts.
Trump also claimed that another woman Jessica Leeds lied during her testimony at trial when she claimed that Trump had sexually assaulted her. Leeds had testified at the first trial that she saw Trump years later at a charity event where Trump said to her "I remember you. You're that cunt from the airplane". Trump Accuser Jessica Leeds Weighs Lawsuit, Calls Him 'Sexual Predator' - Business Insider; ‘Like an octopus’: Trump accuser rebuts ex-president’s denial that he groped her0The Guardian
As I discussed in an earlier YouTube video, Trump had called Carroll’s attorney, Robert Kaplan, a cunt off during his deposition. His attorney made sure that his comment was off the record. Trump then said he “would see you next Tuesday” That phrase combines words that sound like the first two letters of the slur – “C” and “U” – along with words that start with the letters “N” and “T”.
Last Friday, a panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit heard oral arguments in Trump's appeal of the first Carroll jury verdict finding Trump had defamed Carroll in October 2022 when he claimed she had fabricated a sexual assault claim. The jury awarded Carroll $5 million in damages that included only $300,000 in punitive damages.
I read the briefs submitted by the parties to the Appellate Court. Trump is claiming primarily that the District Court judge erred in making several evidentiary rulings. The primary errors claimed by Trump's attorneys was allowing the jury to see the Access Hollywood tape and 2 women to testify about how Trump sexually assaulted them.
While it is not possible to predict with certainty how the appellate panel will rule on those evidentiary matters, I doubt that the arguments will lead to the Second Circuit reversing the jury verdict.
Rule 415 of the Federal Rules of Evidence provides that that in "a civil case involving a claim for relief based on a party's sexual assault, the court may admit evidence that the party committed any other sexual assault"
Since the evidence is permitted under that rule, the issue becomes whether the judge abused his discretion in failing to exclude the relevant evidence under Rule 403, which provides that the judge may exclude relevant evidence if its probative value is substantially outweighed by the danger of unfair prejudice, confusion of the issues, or misleading the jury.
Arguing abuse of discretion in applying Rule 403 is generally viewed as a losing argument.
Even after that first jury verdict, Trump continued to claim that Carroll had fabricated the sexual assault and called her a whack job. Only a fool would do so.
Those subsequent statements were added to the defamation claim in the second Carroll jury trial and Trump was prevented from presenting evidence or arguing the statements were not defamatory under the legal doctrine of collateral estoppel, which has been around for centuries. Once a jury decides an issue, as it did in the first case, the finding is binding on the parties until and unless the first jury decision is overturned.
If the first verdict is not set aside by the appellate court, the second jury verdict finding Trump liable for sexual assault and defamation will likely be upheld as well. There would still be an issue of whether the $65 million in punitive damages was excessive.
If the first jury verdict finding Trump liable for defamation is upheld, then Carroll could file a third defamation suit against Trump seeking more punitive damages since Trump continues to claim that she lied about the sexual assault including his comments yesterday. Would a billion dollar punitive damage award shut him up?
My Video: Second Circuit Hears Arguments on Trump's Appeal of First Carroll Jury Verdict - YouTube
The End of Democracy Has Already Begun - The Atlantic Trump's party has degenerated into an authoritarian leaning one led by a demagogue who makes false and misleading statements measured in the tens of thousands and yet is believed to be honest by tens of millions. Watch #Unfit: The Psychology of Donald Trump | Prime Video reviewed at '#Unfit: The Psychology of Donald Trump': Getting Inside Trump's Head- Variety
Undermining truth and spreading falsehoods are methods used by authoritarians to acquire power and to keep it. Democracies are an historical aberration and are currently under assault by anti-democracy forces that are gaining in power.
Authoritarian regimes have been the long term historical norm
Trump's fan boy, Tucker Carlson, recently interviewed Darryl Cooper who, according to Carlson, was undertaking the most forbidden project of all, reinterpreting WWII. Carlson referred to Cooper as "the most important popular historian working in the United States today."
According to Cooper, Winston Churchill "was the chief villain of the Second World War". Cooper further stated that the Jews did not die as a result of intentional genocide but "ended up dead" because Germany did not have enough food to feed them. What Tucker Carlson’s Spin on World War II Really Says - The Atlantic; White House Condemns Tucker Carlson Interview With Holocaust Revisionist - The New York Times; Tucker Carlson World War II interview: what Republicans miss | Vox
Elon Musk said the interview was "very interesting" and "worth watching". Elon Musk Deletes Post Promoting Tucker Carlson Video Following Backlash - Newsweek The video has received more than 30 million views.
Carlson gave Cooper an uncritical treatment, refusing to push back on Cooper's holocaust claims, which is to be expected from him. Carlson even endorsed the statements made by Cooper.
Carlson: "People can certainly take issue with any factual claims you're making. I assume they're all right. They're consistent with what I think I know to be true"
Cooper claims that criticisms of his views were "totally mendacious".
As far as I can tell, Cooper has a high school education and simply calls himself an historian.
Back in 2016, the publisher of the neo-Nazi website The Daily Stormer, Andrew Anglin, said that Tucker Carlson "is literally our greatest ally." It is not surprising that Carlson appeals strongly to so many Trump supporters.
Tucker Carlson hosts man who says Nazis didn't plan the Holocaust - The Jerusalem Post This article quotes Cooper more extensively than the others linked above.
PolitiFact | Fact-check: Trump called Kamala Harris a communist and a Marxist. Pants on Fire!
The Russian propaganda attack on America - The Atlantic
Pro-Trump PAC "Preserve America" attacks Harris for murder that took place 14 years ago in Texas- The Washington Post The "Preserve America" PAC is largely funded by Miriam Adelson, the widow of Trump mega donor Sheldon Adelson. Trump awarded Miriam the Presidential Medal of Freedom during his first term. Trump claims Medal of Freedom is 'much better' than Medal of Honor - YouTube (referring to the award that he gave Miriam) This PAC attempts to link Harris to the murder of an 18 year old that occurred 14 years ago in Texas when Harris was the DA in San Francisco. The convicted murderer arrived in the U.S. when he was ten years old in 2013. Lying all of the time about almost everything works on the intended audience.
MAGA Launches Most Unbelievable Conspiracy Yet—on Migrants Eating Pets | The New Republic J.D. Vance claimed that Harris was to blame for Haitian migrants eating peoples cats in Springfield, Ohio. When Trump or Vance read something on a conspiracy website, they are both likely to use their megaphones to broadcast whatever they read worldwide without bothering to check out the veracity of the claim. The Springfield police denied Vance's fact free claim. Springfield police say no reports of pets stolen, after viral social media post A black woman from Canton, Ohio, who was a U.S. citizen, had been arrested for allegedly killing and eating a cat.
My Video: Republicans Falsely Claim Haitian Immigrants are Stealing and Eating Cats and Dogs - YouTube
Stopping The Steal | Official Trailer | HBO - YouTube
Hypocrisy, Spinelessness, and the Triumph of Donald Trump - The Atlantic Shortly after entering the Presidential race in 2015, Trump told Mark Leibovich that he "will roll over" republican politicians and turn them into supplicants. Almost all of them are now his puppets.
Trump acknowledges losing the 2020 election 'by a whisker' That is the first honest statement made by Trump about the 2020 election results. He did lose by a whisker. During the debate, Trump said he was just being sarcastic when telling the truth. 'I didn't detect the sarcasm': ABC debate host hits Trump after he flip-flops on 2020 loss - Raw Story He was not being sarcastic but was for once telling what he knew to be true.
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Putin and His Orwellian State:
Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Fired From 600 Miles Away, a Russian Missile Devastates a Ukrainian Family-WSJ (subscription publication). Russia has repeatedly targeted civilian structures in Ukraine with missile and drone attacks. Those attacks can be described fairly as routine war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by Russians. Many of those structures have been apartment buildings. This WSJ article describes one such recent attack. Russia launched a hypersonic missile inside Russia that hit an apartment building in Lviv located in western Ukraine. In this attack, the Russians murdered several civilians including a mother and her three daughters.
Russian attacks on civilian structures are designed to murder and terrorize Ukraine's civilian population. Russia is hoping that its reign of terror will cause Ukraine to quit fighting and to agree to Putin's "peace" terms.
The U.S. needs to deliver more Patriot systems to Ukraine that will at least reduce the number of civilians that the Russians can successfully murder through missile attacks deliberately aimed at civilian structures.
WHO records 1,940 health care attacks in Ukraine since war with Russia began - ABC News
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1. Eliminated CU:CA - Sold 100 at C$34.8 (Interactive Brokers Account-C$1 Commission):
Last Discussed: Item # 1. Bought 100 CU:CA at C$34.16 (7/29/23 Post)
Prior Elimination: Item # 1 Eliminated CU:CA - Sold 100 at C$38.6 (4/28/22 Post)(profit snapshot = +C$433)-Item # 1. Bought 100 CU:CA at C$34.25 (5/8/21)
After my purchase, the price declined to below C$30. A rally started in July 2024 after several closes below C$30 in late June and early July. The recent rally was probably due to the decline in interest rates that made the dividend yield more attractive.
Whenever a stock drops in price after purchase, my inclination is to sell when I have a profit and then start over, looking for a lower entry point than my prior purchase. I will reconsider a purchase at a price lower than C$30.
I at least cleared a profit on this latest round-trip, plus I harvested several dividend payments.
A negative consideration is that the dividend payout ratio is high.
Adjusted E.P.S. for the 6 months ending 6/30/24 was reported at $1.18 with two quarterly dividend payments at C$.9062 or about a 77% payout ratio using adjusted earnings. At a minimum, this high payout ratio will restrain the percentage growth in dividends.
Profit Snapshot: +C$62
Canadian Utilities | Dividends & Stock Splits
Last Ex Dividend: 8/8/24 (owned as of)
Dividend History: Good for a utility holding company.
CU Dividend History 1972-2021.pdf
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): Canadian Utilities Reports 2024 Second Quarter Earning and Financial Information.pdf
All amounts are in Canadian Dollars.
Second quarter 2024 "adjusted earnings of $117 million ($0.43 per share), which were $17 million ($0.06 per share) higher compared to $100 million ($0.37 per share) in the second quarter of 2023."
Using the International Financial Reporting Standards, E.P.S. was $.16 down from $.32.
Reconciliation:
Revenues: $860M
2. Small Ball Sells:
The reason for paring the stock positions discussed in this section is standard risk mitigation through selling my highest cost lots and/or shares purchased with dividends.
Most of the shares were sold profitably.
In my Schwab account, I did sell 23 shares of AT&T (T) and 20 shares of SBRA at slight losses, eliminating all shares in that account that had unrealized losses.
I also sold 30+ T in my Fidelity account netting a small gain. Netting the gain and loss in my Fidelity and Schwab accounts, I realized a net profit of $46.75 on T Shares.
T has been problematic since I restarted a position. The recent rise in the T price allowed me to lower my average cost per share in both accounts, increase my dividend yield at the revised cost numbers and to realize a small net gain on the shares. The stock was trading near $16 in April 2024.
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| T one year chart through 9/9/24 |
A. Pared SLRC - Sold All Shares (17+) Purchased with Dividends at $15.86:
Quote: SLR Investment Corp. (SLRC) - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds: $284.26
I had previously turned off dividend reinvestment.
Selling shares purchased with dividends at a profit is one of the risk management strategies that I use.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Added 5 SLRC at $14.96 (3/8/24 Post)
2023 SEC Filed Annual Report (Summary of risk factors starts at page 31 and ends at page 71)
Profit Snapshot: +$25.46
New Average cost per share: $15.32 (143 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday 9/5/24 after pare |
The AC per share was increased from $15.22 since most of the fractional shares were purchased below my AC.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.41 per share ($1.64 annually)
SLRC Dividend History | Nasdaq
SLRC previously had a monthly dividend of $.136667 but went to the $.41 quarterly payment effective for 2023 4th quarter. The quarterly amount did not change.
At the current dividend rate, the annual cash dividend for 143 shares is $234.52.
Yield at $15.32: 10.705%
Next Ex Dividend: 9/13/24
Net Asset value per share history: While there has been some drifting down in net asset value per share, the $18.20 number is still higher than the proceeds to SLRC from its 2010 IPO which is a positive for a BDC.
6/30/24: $18.2
12/31/23: $18.09
3/31/23: $18.04
12/31/22: $18.33
6/30/22: $18.53
12/31/21: $19.93
12/31/20: $20.16
9/30/20: $20.14 10-Q
12/31/19: $21.44
12/31/18: $21.75
12/31/17: $21.81
12/31/16: $21.74
12/31/15: $20.79
12/31/14: $22.05
12/31/13: $22.50
12/31/12: $22.70
12/31/11: $22.02
Initial Public Offering: Prospectus February 2010, priced to the public at $18.5. Proceeds to SLRC was at $17.205.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Net Investment Income: $24.3M
NII per share: $.45 (exceeds the quarterly dividend by $.04)
First Lien Loans at 97.7%
Floating Rate Loans at 66.3% on a total portfolio basis
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| Footnotes omitted |
Fund's Analysis of Credit Risks:
One investment was on nonaccrual as noted in the prior snapshot.
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 A summary of investments starts at page 7.
Other Buy Discussions - Past 2 Years: Item # 1.D. Added to SLRC - Bought 3 at $14.94 (11/25/23 Post); Item # 1.B. Added to SLRC - Bought 3 at $14.29 (7/8/23 Post); Item # 2.H. Added to SLRC - Bought 3 at $14.39 (6/17/23 Post); Item #4.H. Added to SLRC in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 1 $13.38; 4 at $12.53; 3 at $12.34 (10/11/22 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.E. Eliminated SLRC in Two Taxable Accounts - Sold 37+ at $15.79 and 30 at $15.79 (3/11/23 Post)
B. Pared OLP - Sold 5 at $26.84:
Quote: One Liberty Properties Inc. (OLP) - Internally Managed REIT
Proceeds: $134.23
I sold my highest cost shares.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Pared OLP - Sold 5 at $21.12 (8/15/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.38). I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Profit Snapshot: $26.93
New Average cost per share: $19.06 (30 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 9/5/24 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.45 per share ($1.8 annually), last raised from $.43 effective for the 2017 4th quarter.
Yield at $19.06: 9.44%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/25/24
C. Pared EPRT - Sold 5 at $32.25:
Quote: Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc. (EPRT) - A Net Lease REIT
Proceeds: $161.25
I sold my highest cost shares.
EPRT "owns and manages primarily single-tenant properties that are net leased on a long-term basis to middle-market companies operating service-oriented or experience-based businesses."
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Single-Tenant Real Estate Firm | Essential Properties Realty Trust
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 6.I. Added to EPRT - Bought 2 at $19.19 - Fidelity Account (11/1/22 Post); Item # 4.N. Added to EPRT - Bought 2 at $19.95 (10/11/22 Post); Item # 4.H. Bought 3 EPRT at $20.3 (6/15/22 Post); Item 2.L. Added to EPRT - BOUGHT 2 AT $23.28; 3 at $23.38; 3 at $22.73; 2 at $21.55 (5/12/22 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$24.84
New Average cost per share: $21.89 (25 shares)
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| Snapshot as of 9/9/24 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $22.66.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 per share ($1.16 annually), last raised from $.285 effective for the 2024 third quarter payment. In 2019, the annual dividend was $.88 per share.
Dividends – Essential Properties
Dividend Yield at $21.89: 6/28/24
Last Ex Dividend: 5.3%
Last Discussed: Item # 4.D. Pared EBRT - Sold 4 at $31.5 (8/29/24 )(profit snapshot = $14.62)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): I discussed the 2024 second quarter report in the following linked post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 2.G. Pared EPRT-Sold 5 at $30.81 (7/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.15); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
D. Pared Duplicate Position in CGBD - Sold 2 at $16.78 (Fidelity Account):
Proceeds: $33.56
Management: External
10-Q for the Q/E 2024 Summary of investments starts at page 7.
2023 SEC Filed Annual Report (Summary of risk factors starts at page 24 and ends at page 53)
Last Discussed Item # 2.D. Pared CGBD in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $17.66 (5/31/24 Post)(profit snapshot $12.76). I currently own 56+ shares in that account.
Profit Snapshot: $14.69
New Average cost per share this account: $7.24 (31+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 9/6/24 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $7.39.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 (regular)
CGBD Stock Dividend History & Date
This BDC has paid several special dividends.
In 2024, the company has paid three special dividends totalling $.22 per share.
In 2023, the company paid 4 special dividends totaling $.28 per share.
Yield at $7.24: 22.1% (regular dividend only):
Next Ex Dividend: 9/30/24 for the $.40 regular and a $.07 special.
Net Asset value per share history:
6/30/24: $16.95 10-Q at page 2
12/31/23: $16.99
3/31/23: $17.07
12/31/23: $16.99
12/31/22: $16.91
9/30/22 : $17.16
12/31/21: $16.91
12/31/20: $15.39
12/31/19: $16.56
12/31/18: $18.12
6/30/17: $18.01
The Initial Public Offering was in June 2017. The public offering price was $18.75. The external advisor paid 50% of the $.56 per share underwriters' discount. Prospectus
CGBD's offering expenses were then estimated at $1.8M or approximately $.20 per share.
After those net expense items, the net proceeds to the BDC were about $18.27 per share.
SEC Filed Earnings Presentation
Net Investment Income: $25.998M
NII per share: $.51, up from $.52 in the 2023 second quarter.
Weighted average yield of debt investments at amortized cost: 12.7%
First Lien Debt: 70%
Second Lien Debt: 8.5%
99.6% Floating rates
Nonaccrual investments (3): 1.8% as a percentage of fair value and 2.8% at amortized cost.
Company Risk Ratings of Loans:
Company Estimated Impact on NII by Interest Rate Changes:
Pages 101-102 10-Q
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.D. Pared Duplicate Position in CGBD - Sold 9 at $17.57 (Schwab Account) (5/10/24 Post); Item # 2.C. Pared CGBD in Fidelity Account - Sold 7+ at $17.41 (3/15/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.81); Item # 3.H. Eliminated CGBD in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $15.1 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.6); Item # 2.E. Pared CBGD in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 25+ at $14.46 (3/24/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.09)
Proceeds: $471.84
T Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
As previously discussed here, the AT&T Board and management has incinerated billions through the ill advised acquisitions of Warner Media and DIRECTV.
The current long term negative issues include heavy capital spending (including purchases of wireless spectrum), high labor costs, extremely heavy debt levels and strong competition in the wireless business.
As of 6/30/24, long term debt was at $125.355B.
New Average cost per share: $17.97 (50+ shares)
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| Snapshot after pare on 9/9/24 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2775 per share ($1.11 annually), slashed from $.52 effective for the 2022 second quarter payment.
I have turned off dividend reinvestment.
Yield at $17.97 = 6.177%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/10/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24):
Revenues: $29.8B
GAAP E.P.S. = $.49, down from $.61
Adjusted E.P.S. $.57, down from $.63
Consensus non-GAAP E.P.S. per Schwab: $.57
Reconciliation:
SEC Supplemental Filing at page 5
Free Cash Flow: $4.575B
Free Cash Flow Calculation:
419,000 postpaid phone adds
239,000 AT&T fiber net adds
2024 Outlook: Adjusted E.P.S. of $2.15-$2.25
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (7/24/24): 3 stars with a fair value estimate of $23; capital allocation rated as poor, moat is rated as narrow.
S&P (7/29/24): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $21.
Argus (7/29/24): Hold
F. Sold 30+ T at $21.35- Fidelity Account:
See Item # 2.E. above.
Proceeds: $652.97
Profit Snapshot: +$60.04
New average cost per share this account: $16.51 (30+ shares)
The shares that are currently owned were bought in 1 to 3 share lots, with the lowest price paid being $14.05 (8/4/23). I did not discuss those purchases here.
I have turned off dividend reinvestment.
Yield at $16.51: 6.723%
G. Sold 20 SBRA in Schwab Account at the prices indicated in the following snapshot:
Loss Snapshot: -$28.21
Quote: Sabra Healthcare REIT Inc. (SBRA)
Proceeds = $340.76
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Sabra Health Care REIT
New Average cost per share: $13.06 (65+ shares)
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| Snapshot after pare on 9/9/24 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share
SBRA Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at $13.06: 9.19%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/19/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report: I discussed the last earnings report in a recent post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 4.H. Pared SBRA in Fidelity Account - Sold 15+ at $16.6 (8/9/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $19.24); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
H. Pared CAG - Sold 5 at $33.07:
Quote: Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG)
Proceeds: $166.35
CAG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Annual Report for the Fiscal Year ending 5/25/24
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added to CAG - Bought 2 at $28.07; 2 at $27.68; 3 at $27.31; 3 at $27.05; 5 at $26.95; 5 at $26.7; 5 at $26.4; 5 at $25.8 (10/7/2023 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $.35
New average cost per share: $28.03 (55+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 9/10/23 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $28.44 by selling this highest cost lot.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share ($1.4 annually)
Yield at $28.03: 4.995%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/1/24
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 5/26/24): This was the 4th fiscal quarter.
Revenues: $2.9059B, down 2.3%
GAAP E.P.S. = ($1.18)
Net Loss: $567.3M
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.61
The main adjustment to GAAP is add back a noncash charge of $956.7M for goodwill and brand impairment.
2025 Fiscal Year Guidance: Adjusted E.P.S. of $2.6-$2.65
2024 F/Y Free Cash Flow: $1.6275B
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (7/19/24): 3 stars with an estimated fair value of $33 laue
S&P (7/18/24): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $30 with no economic moat.
Sell Discussions: Item # 3.A. Eliminated CAG in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 20 at $38.27 and Item # 3.B. Eliminated CAG in Schwab Account - Sold 22+ at $38.36 (12/20/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $214.41); Item # 5.A. Eliminated CAG in Fidelity Account - Sold 18+ at $37.07 (12/6/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.4); Item # 6.B. Pared CAG in Vanguard Account - Sold 5 at $36.66 (11/8/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.59)
CAG Realized Gains to Date: $271.75
Investment category: Bond Substitute (describes the goal only which is the dividend + 2% or more annual realized gain on the shares)
CAG SU Debt: I owned two 4.3% SU bonds that matured on 5/1/24:
%20+$28.54.png){kind=small} |
| IB Account |
I still own two 4.6% Conagra SU bonds that mature on 11/1/25 bought at a total cost of 98.48. Item # 4.G. (4/26/24 Post)
I. Pared O - Sold 5 at $63:
Quote: Realty Income Corp. (O) - Net Lease Retail REIT
Proceeds: $314.99
As of 6/30/24, Realty Income "owned or held interests in 15,450 properties, which were leased to 1,551 clients doing business in 90 industries. . . As of June 30, 2024, portfolio occupancy was 98.8% with 185 properties available for lease or sale, as compared to 98.6% as of March 31, 2024 and 99.0% as of June 30, 2023."
Website: Homepage | Realty Income
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Management: Internal
Profit Snapshot: $46.52
New Average cost per share: $50.34 (20+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 9/10/24 after pare |
The AC was reduced from $51 by selling the highest cost 5 shares.
Dividend: Monthly at $.263 per share ($3.156 annually), last raised from
I have turned off dividend reinvestment.
Yield at $50.34: 6.27% (assumes continuation of current dividend)
Last Ex Dividend: 9/3/24 (owned all as of)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.C. Added to O - Bought 1 at $52.2; 2 at $51.07 (5/31/24 Post); Item # 1.B. Added 5 O at $51.44 (3/22/24 Post); Item # 1.O. Added to O - Bought 1 at $48.9; 1 at $46.79; 2 at $45.54 (11/4/23 Post); Item # 2.I. Added to O - Bought 1 at $51.16; 1 at $50.78; 1 at $50.22; 2 at $50; 1 at $49.74 (9/30/23 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.G. Pared Realty Income (O) - Sold 5 at $59 (1/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.48).
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24):
GAAP E.P.S. = $.29
Adjusted FFO per share: $1.06, up 6% compared to the 2023 second quarter.
Revenue: $1.3394B
Properties Sold:
2024 Guidance: Adjusted FFO per share $4.15 to $4.21
Reconciliation of GAAP to AFFO:
Depreciation of $605.57M is add back to GAAP net income in the FFO calculation. The gain of $25.153M from property sales is subtracted.
Last Bond Offering (8/2024): Prospectus
Owned SU Bonds: I currently own 2 Realty Income SU bonds that mature in 2027. Bond Page | FINRA.org
The most recent maturity was two 4.6% SU bonds that matured on 2/6/24:
%20+$8.6%20.png){kind=small}
Largest Gain: Item # 1. Eliminated Realty Income (O)- Sold 100 at $52.37 -Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $1,579.6). That lot was sold on 1/20/16.
O Realized Gains to Date: $1,646.91
3. Small Ball Buys:
A. Added 5 CVE at $17.32; 5 at $16.9; 5 at $15.94:
New Average cost per share: $18.12 (35 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.18 per share.
Ex Dividend: 9/13/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): I discussed in the 2024 second quarter earnings report in a recent post and nothing further to add here. Item # 3.D. Started CVE in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $19.7; 5 at $18.84 (8/21/24 Post); Cenovus announces second quarter 2024 results and SEC Filed Management Discussion
B. Added to MIN - Bought 50 at $2.77; 100 at $2.75 (Fidelity Account):
Quote: MFS Intermediate Income Trust Overview - Unleveraged Bond CEF
Cost: $412.75
I am more willing to add to this bond CEF as yield alternatives evaporate.
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
The fund is classified as an investment grade bond fund.
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
Sponsor's Website: MIN: Intermediate Income Trust | MFS
As of 7/31/24: 213 Holdings with an average effective duration of 3.75 years.
Credit Quality:
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Added to MIN - Bought 30 at $2.72 (1/6/24 Post)
MFS Intermediate Income Trust - SEC Filed Shareholder semiannual report for the period ending on 4/30/24
New average cost per share this account: $2.89 (615+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 9/10 after second add |
The AC is higher than I would like to have and was caused by starting the position in 2020 when I bought 220 shares.
Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate, hovering near $.02 per share
MIN Stock Dividend History & Date
ROC supported.
My average cost based on the price originally paid would be higher but the dividends classified as ROC would not be taxable in the year paid as dividends.
That part of the dividend classified as ROC reduces my taxable cost basis. That will increase my capital gains or reduce my capital loss, as the case may be, when I sell the shares with the adjusted tax cost basis.
Tax Classification of Dividends for the F/Y Ending 10/31/23:
 |
| P.25 SEC Filed Semiannual Report |
The fund pays a managed dividend "based on an annual rate of 8.50% of the fund’s average monthly net asset value." Without realized capital gains, there is no way to cover the payout from interest income.
Yield at New AC = 8.32% (based on the last 12 monthly dividends)
Next Ex Dividend: 9/17/24
Data Date of 9/6/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $2.89
Closing Market Price: $2.76
Discount: -4.5%
Data Date of 9/10/24 Trade:
Closing Net asset value per share: $2.9
Closing Market Price: $2.74
Discount: -5.52%
Average 3 Year Discount: -5.69%
Sourced: MIN - CEF Connect
C. Added to Falling Knife AAP - Bought 1 at $40.8; 1 at $39.76; 1 at $38.86; 1 at $37.83:
Quote: Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)
Cost: $157.25
AAP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New Average cost per share: $41.91 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, slashed from $1.5 effective for the 2023 third quarter payment.
Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at $41.91: 2.386%
Next Ex Dividend: 10/11/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 7/13/24): I discussed this report in a recent post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 2.C. Bought 1 AAP at $46.55; 1 at $35.06; 1 at $43.76; 1 at $43; 1 at $42.2(9/5/24 Post); 10-Q for the Q/E 7/13/24; SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
If the stock keeps falling, I will continue to buy in 1 or 2 share lots. My current opinion is that AAP has turnaround potential but it is still too early to know whether or not that will actually happen.
D. Added to APA - Bought 5 at $25.8; 5 at $25.04; 5 at $23.61:
Quote: APA Corp. (APA)
Cost: $372.24
Last Discussed: Item # 2.G. Added to APA - Bought 5 at $27.85 (6/20/24 Post)
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.C. Started APA - Bought 5 at $30.7; 5 at $30.3; 5 at $29.8; 5 at $29.5 (5/24/24 Post) I discussed the 2024 first quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24
APA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
APA's interest in the Suriname oil and gas discovery may end up resulting in a larger company acquiring APA. APA has a 50% interest. Suriname | APA Corporation; APA Corporation and TotalEnergies Announce Oil Project of 200,000 b/d in Block 58 and Launch Development Studies with the Objective of Sanctioning the Project by Year-end 2024 | APA Corporation
New Average cost per share: $27.96 (45 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25
Dividend History | APA Corporation
Yield at New AC: 3.5765%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/22/24 (owned 30 as of)
Last Earnings Report (6/30/24): SEC Filing
Diluted E.P.S. = $1.46, up from $1.23 in the 2023 second quarter.
Revenues: $2.792B
"reported production of 473,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day; adjusted production, which excludes Egypt noncontrolling interest and tax barrels, was 405,000 BOE per day"
Expects "U.S. oil production to increase 8% from second-quarter 2024 to fourth-quarter 2024"
Average Prices: Energy prices have declined in the current quarter compared to these numbers.
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 9/9/24 Auction:
91 Day Bill
Matures on 12/12/24
Interest: $61.87
Investment Rate: 5.025%
B. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 9/9/25 Auction:
182 Day Bill
Matures on 3/13/25
Interest: $45.8
Investment Rate: 4.701%
The 52 week high for this bill was at 5.6%.
C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 9/11/24 Auction:
119 Day Bill
Matures on 1/14/25
By holding until this bill matures, the interest income will be taxable in 2025.
Interest: $78.34
Investment Rate: 4.882%
This IR has built into it an expectation that the FED will cut the FF rate by 25 basis points next week and another 25 basis points at the 11/7/24 meeting.
5. Tennessee Municipal Bonds:
A. Bought 10 Williamson County, TN 3% GO Maturing on 4/1/2030 at a Total Cost of 99.527:
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Emma Page
Credit Rating: Aaa by Moody's
Federally Tax Free Interest
Optional Redemption: On or after 4/1/25 at par plus accrued and unpaid interest. A further decline in interest rates will make it more likely this bond will be called early.
YTM at Total Cost: 3.093%
I had owned 15 Williamson 2.5% GO bonds, which would have matured in 2027, but were called earlier this year at par value + accrued and unpaid interest:
I live in Williamson County, TN. The two main cities, Brentwood where I live and Franklin, have AAA ratings as well, as does the State of Tennessee.
6. Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Added 5 EMP at $22.75 in Fidelity Account:
Cost: $113.75
Wholly owned operating subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)
ETR 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 (Entergy Mississippi results can be found at pages 125-138.
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| Snapshot Intraday on 9/6/24 after add |
Yield at $22.29: 5.5%, rounded up.
(.049% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.225 in annual interest per share ÷ $22.29 total cost per share = 5.4957%)
Next Ex Interest Date: 9/30/24
I discussed this first mortgage bond in my last post. Item # 5.B. Added to EMP in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $22.76 (9/5/24 Post). I also added 5 shares in my Schwab account last month. Item # 4.A. Added to EMP in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $22.48 (8/8/24 Post)
EMP Total Position in Taxable Accounts: 165 shares
Annual Interest on 165 shares: $202.12
Maximum Position in All Taxable Accounts: 300 shares
7. Corporate Bonds:
A. Bought 2 FS KKR Capital 3.4% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 97.384:
Issuer: Externally Managed BDC
I own the common shares.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3
YTM at Total Cost: 5.435%
Current Yield at Total Cost = 3.49%
I now 6 bonds.
I have 4 FS KKR 4.125% SU bonds that will mature on 2/1/25.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I hadn't been looking today. IWM small cap is up nearly 2.5%.
ReplyDeleteMakes me glad every time I don't try to time the market.
CPI report doesn't seem particularly good. There's a bit more inflation. Meanwhile unemployment is picking up an edge. It must be implying soft landing to investors.
With the ECB lowering rates twice, is that impacting the US bond market, as a better place for Europeans to invest?
Land: The 10 year treasury yield is significantly higher than the Germany 10 year which closed today at 2.15%, down from a 52 week high of 3.027%.
DeleteForeign buyers of U.S.D. priced securities face potential losses from currency exchange which can be hedged but would cost money to do so. Ideally, if an investor used Euros to buy a U.S. treasury, and did not hedge the currency risk, more than the yield difference could be realized by the USD gaining in value against the Euro with conversion back to the Euro at maturity. The Euro has gained 3.3% in value against the USD over the past year.
There was a jump today in the probability of a 50 basis point cut next week. The CME FedWatch tool has that probability at 45%, up from 28% yesterday.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
The thinking is that the current FF range of 5.25% to 5.5% is too restrictive given the inflation rate, meaning the real rate given the current inflation numbers.
I do not see a 50 basis point cut happening next week and would not put the odds anywhere close to 45%, but it is possible. It would be better and less disconcerting to investors to cut by .25% next week and another 25 basis points in November and again in December.
CPI is still being juiced up by the non-expense of owners equivalent rent. Excluding that pretend expense, inflation is near the Fed's target and the breakeven inflation rate for the ten year TIP is now close to 2%. The FED pays attention to that number.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE
Thanks!!
ReplyDeleteThe 6 month treasury bill was auctioned today at a 4.573% investment rate or 67.7 basis points below the current low end of the 5.25% - 5.5% federal fund range and 80.2 basis points below the midpoint of that range.
ReplyDeleteThe IR is consistent with a 75 basis point cut in the FF range before year end, either three 25 basis point cuts after the next three FED meetings and a .5% cut followed by another .25%.
In other words, yields have adjusted down to reflect a significant rate cut before any cut has happened.
++
I noted some recent data that points to consumer economic stress, particularly among middle or lower income households.
There has recently been a significant uptick in consumer credit card and car payment defaults and an increase in delinquencies.
Ally Financial said last week that its credit challenges had intensified with consumers "struggling with a high inflation and cost of living" The stock declined 17.6% in response last Tuesday.
Ally stated that auto loan delinquencies were about .2% above expectations with charge offs .1% above expectations.
The NY FED consumer credit report for the 2024 second quarter: "Over the last year, approximately 9.1% of credit card balances and 8.0% of auto loan balances transitioned into delinquency."
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20240806
So that is concerning without any increase.
Interesting. I wonder how long it's taken for this level of decline to trigger a recession.
DeleteIn June, 3 senators wrote Fed asking for 75pt basis cut. I'm surprised, 75 right now seems like overkill. Warren, Rosen, Hickenlooper.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/three-democratic-senators-urge-federal-173104873.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHRnSa51VdmUAtc6sc6O8h9FUnEwPqg4nTOmWALGiJhB0lMMI-67ea_yqzKcJJFOLbFYQjESWVWfW1y5oCcWs-CylvPHPh6ZHkbn81G9LtRoXMqdAcdXa1_jWqR_haLReiynlolKHiwycATi361DimExHTMzxwr3TxtXpUXWKWOn
Land: The higher delinquency rates on auto loans is probably a bigger issue than increased delinquencies in credit card debt since people need cars to get to work. It is like the water or electric bill. When payments can not be made on those kind of bills and debt obligations, the household is about to spiral down potentially into homelessness.
DeleteWhat is happening now is the natural result of a cumulative impact from inflation and no stimulus checks to offset those cost pressures.
Maybe the increase in consumer defaults and delinquencies is not a big problem until the job growth ends and starts to go negative with layoffs in meaningful numbers.
Then the economy could go down faster than most expect now.
The CME FedWatch tool currently has a 67% probability of a 50 basis point cut on Wednesday and 33% at .25%.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Those probabilities are reflected IMO in the 3 and 6 month treasury bill auction today. The 3 month was auctioned at a 4.874% investment rate. That reflects either a 50 basis point cut this week or at a somewhat less probability of .25% this Wednesday and another .25% when the FED meets on 11/7 after the election.
The 50 basis point cut in the federal funds range to 4.75%-5% was almost entirely reflected in short term treasury bill rates prior to today.
ReplyDeleteThe 6 month T Bill yield is reflecting one more 25 basis point cut this year with a low probability of 50 basis points.
U.S. 6 Month Treasury Bill: 4.52% as of 5:00 P.M.EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd06m?countrycode=bx
The high earlier this year was at 5.6%.
The Fed Dot Plot has 10 of the 19 member forecasting another 50 basis point cut before year end with 17 out of 19 predicting at least a 25 basis point cut. Only 2 predict no change from the current range.
Figure 2:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20240918.htm
The 6 month T Bill yield reflects a lower probability of another 50 basis cut than that 10 of 19 prediction.
The FED did raise its prediction of the year end unemployment rate to 4.4% from th 4% prediction made in June. So that is probably driving the decision to cut 50 basis points today coupled with the lower forecasts for PCE inflation and core PCE inflation compared to the June forecasts.
I was wondering what you thought!
ReplyDeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/09/bhk-calf-ffhprdca-krg-mnsbp-nsa-peo-ppt.html