Economy:
CPI Annual Increase through May 2022 = +8.6%
Core Annual Increase = +6%
Consumer Price Index Summary - 2022 M05 Results
Wholesale prices rose 10.8% in May, near a record annual pace
Treasury yields popped higher in response to the May CPI report:
Nominal Treasury Yields June 22:
Real Yields- TIPs (real yield is the yield over or under CPI inflation):
The rapid percentage increases shown in the preceding tables are so large that I would expect some profit taking to restrain or reverse yield increases today. So I did my buying yesterday that I would normally do today.
The probability of a .75% increase in the FF range later today is currently at 100% with a 3% probability of a 1% increase:
The year end FF range probabilities have move significantly higher compared to 1 month ago.
86.3% probability of at least a 3.5% to 3.75% range.
Countdown to FOMC: CME FedWatch Tool
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Trapped by Russian Forces, Ukrainians Waited a Month in a Basement - The New York Times Russia imprisoned over 300 Ukrainians, of which 77 were children, in a "dark airless school basement for nearly a month". Ten died due to that mistreatment including 1 baby.
Putin 'Preparing to Starve' Parts of Developing World: Yale Historian Murdering people through starvation is one of Russia's favorite tactics.
Putin Says Ukraine War Is to Seize Land, Undermining Own Rationale
Vladimir Putin: Restoration of empire is the endgame for Russia's president | CNN
How Russia Will Die | Peter Zeihan - YouTube
Republicans Respond to Jan. 6 Hearings by Defending Trump Fox has refused to carry the hearings, telling their viewers that the purpose is simply to fund raise for Democrats and attacking the legitimacy of the hearing.
Several intellectuals predicted a Donald Trump like cult figure, with clear authoritarian tendencies, and his pseudo conservatism, more than 6 decades ago. The Radical Right The New American Right Expanded And Updated : Daniel Bell : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive (1963), an updated version of the New American Right, published in 1954 with Richard Hofstadter and Seymour Martin Lipset contributing. 'Radical Right' book warned of extremists predicted the Jan. 6th Attack on the Capital - The Washington Post
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1. Corporate Bonds and Treasuries:
I am discussing in this post bonds purchased in April or early May except for 3 bonds that were purchased last week before yields popped in response to the last CPI report and the sea change in expectations about FED rate changes and 2 bonds purchased yesterday. The other bonds purchased yesterday will be discussed in time order sometime in September.
The movement from cash reserves to mostly short term bonds is a major, ongoing allocation shift for me.
I have caught up discussing my stock trades with this post.
As a practical matter, my stock buying is equivalent to doing nothing.
When buying stocks, I am focusing on increasing my dividend yields at new average costs, created either by selling my highest cost lots or buying incrementally at lower prices. Examples of both are discussed in this post.
A. Bought 1 Morgan Stanley 3.125% SU Maturing on 7/26/26 at a Total Cost of 96.6:
I now own two bonds. I mentioned this last purchase in a 4/28/22 comment.
Finra page: Bond Detail
YTM at TC = 4%
Current Yield at TC = 3.235%
B. Bought 1 Laboratory 2.3% SU Maturing on 12/1/24 at a TC of 96.916:
I now own 3 bonds including 1 in a Roth IRA account.
Issuer: Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings (LH)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at TC = 3.565%
Current Yield at TC = 2.37%
C. Bought 1 Laboratory 3.25% SU Maturing on 9/1/24 at a TC of 99.714:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
YTM at TC = 3.378%
Current Yield at TC = 3.26%
I had a previous 1 bond round-trip that netted a $28.04 profit:
Item # 3.A. Sold at 100.131 (6/18/19 Post)-Item # 4.A. Bought 1 LH SU at a TC of 97.277 (3/15/18 Post) The bond is more interesting to me now in that it about the maturity is nearly 3 years closer than when I sold it on 5/28/19, which is a slight reduction in the interest risk that I call the risk of lost opportunity.
D. Bought 1 Treasury 2.25% SU Maturing on 11/15/24 at 98.4574:
YTM at TC = 2.886%
Current Yield at TC = 2.29%, rounded up.
E. Bought 1 Treasury 1.625% Coupon Maturing on 4/30/23 at 99.515:
YTM at TC = 2.12%
Current Yield at TC = 1.63%, rounded down.
F. Bought 1 Treasury 1.25% Coupon Maturing on 7/31/23 at 98.677:
YTM at TC = 2.34%
Current Yield at TC = 1.27%, rounded up
G. Bought 2 Southern Gas 2.45% SU Maturing on 10/1/23 at a Total Cost of 98.897:
I am discussing the purchases in Items 1.G., 1.H. and 1.I. about 2 months out of time sequence. These 2023 maturities are what I am looking to buy now based on credit quality and YTM. Even though this bond was purchased only a few days ago, the YTM is closed yesterday at slightly over 4%. I am starting to add more treasuries maturing next year.
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of the Southern Company (SO)
SO 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 (Southern Gas had net income of $319M, see page 37)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost = 3.324%
Current Yield at TC = 2.48%
H. Bought 2 Southern Gas 2.45% SU Maturing on 10/1/23 at a Total Cost of 98.104:
See Item # 1.G. above. I now own 6 bonds.
YTM at Total Cost = 3.939%
Current Yield at TC = 2.5%, rounded up.
I added two yesterday after the rise in short term yield increased my YTM by .615% compared to the purchase made on 6/10/22
I. Bought 1 Boston Properties 3.125% SU Maturing on 9/1/23 at a Total Cost of 99.863:
Issuer: Operating Entity for the REIT Boston Properties Inc. (BXP)
BXP Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/22
I now own 2 bonds. The other one was purchased in April 2020.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 3.238%
Current Yield at TC = 3.1293%
J. One Month Early Redemption Office Properties 4% SU Maturing 7/15/22:
This bond was bought on 5/12/20 at a 98.609 TC.
The issuer was allowed to redeem up to 1 month prior to maturity without paying a make whole payment.
I have already bought a replacement: Finra Page Select Income REIT 4.25% SU Maturing on 5/15/24 Based on yesterday's closing price of 96.98, the YTM was then at 5.94%. Select Income bonds are now Office Properties obligations.
2. Bought 1 TIP .375% Coupon Maturing on 7/15/27 at 98.602:
No commission is paid on Treasury trades |
I have started to buy TIPs in my Roth IRA accounts. I mentioned this one in a comment published yesterday. I will not be discussing most purchases here. This is sort of a refresher course for me.
The TIPs have become more interesting after moving into positive yield territory. My first purchases in several years were made this month. Prior to the purchases this month, I had either profitably sold all of my TIPs or allowed them to mature without reinvesting the proceeds into new TIP purchases.
Real Yield = .655% due to purchasing the bond at below par
Coupon = .375% applied to the principal amount as increased by CPI adjustments.
Original Principal Amount: $1,000
Inflation Factor: 1.17838 (for 6/15/22, settlement date)
Inflation Factor Data for this TIP
Inflation Factor Data-All TIPs
Par value as adjusted for CPI through 6/15: $1,178.38
Accrued Interest Paid to Seller: $1.84
My Cost at $1,161.90 (1.17838 inflation factor x. 98.602 = 116.19 x. 10 = $1,161.9)
Individual - Comparison of TIPS and Series I Savings Bonds
Advantages over IBonds:
May sell at anytime without incurring a penalty
Market is extremely liquid (easily bought or sold in 1 bond lots with a slight sacrifice in price compared to large lots)
IBonds are currently sold without a fixed coupon. TIPs have moved into positive real yield territory recently.
Inflation adjustments monthly
Disadvantages over IBonds:
Inflation accretion to the principal amount is taxed annually even though the bond is not sold.
Requires an effort to learn about when and how to buy
2022 Real Yield Rates TIPs -U.S. Department of the Treasury
Breakeven Inflation Rate 5 Year TIP as of 6/14/22: 2.88%
The breakeven inflation rate is the annual average CPI necessary for the TIP buyer to breakeven with the buyer of the non-inflation protected treasury.
5 Year Nominal Yield at 3.61%
Minus
5 Year Real Yield at +.73%
= 2.88%
Generally, the buyer of the TIP is better off only when the actual annual average CPI increases are higher than the breakeven inflation rate when the choice is made between the TIP and the non-inflation protected treasury.
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
as of 6/13/22 at +.45% |
There is an ETF that owns 1 to 5 year TIPs: iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF | STIP The problem is not the expense ratio which is only .03%.
As with other bond funds that owns vintage bonds bought before a spike in interest rates, the net asset value per share is going down as the real yields for TIPs go from negative to positive.
The only way for a 5 year TIP bought at a negative real yield to adjust to the current positive real yield is to go down in price until the market rate is hit.
And if the real yields continue to move higher, those vintage TIPs bought at negative real yields will continue declining in price in addition to producing no real yield.
The STIP YTD total return, even with the hot inflation numbers, is -1.67% through yesterday. iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF (STIP) Performance-Morningstar My total for the 5 year TIP bought yesterday will be the annual average inflation rate to 7/15/27 + .655% (the real yield above the inflation rate)
I published these posts in 2016: The Mechanics Of Purchasing A TIP In The Secondary Market | Seeking Alpha; Update On Buying TIPs In The Secondary Market | Seeking Alpha
This one was published in 2017: TIP Trading in the Secondary Market (1/23/17 Post)
I view TIPs as primarily a hedge against problematic inflation continuing for several years.
I will trade the TIPs and will definitely consider selling at a profit, as I did in 2012, when real yields go from positive to negative: Sold 3 TIP Bonds Maturing in 2019 at 120.45 (6/25/12 Post). The purchase price created a negative yield of -.89%.
Profit Snapshot = +$838.87 |
3. Eliminated WCP:CA: Sold 100 at C$11.92+:
C$1 Commission |
Quote: Whitecap Resources Inc. (Canada: Toronto) | MarketWatch
Website: Whitecap Resources Inc
1 year chart as of 6/6/22:
Profit Snapshot: +C$405.5
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Bought 100 WCP:CA at C$7.85 (10/3/2018 Post)
Given the dividend yield is relatively low for the E & P stocks that I normally buy, and the rally in the stock turn a previous unrealized loss into a decent gain, I decided to go ahead and harvest the profit. Back in 2020, the stock approached a C$1 price.
Dividend: Monthly at C$.03 per share
At C$11.92, the dividend yield is about 3.02%.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): Whitecap Resources Announces Record First Quarter Results
All dollar amounts are in CADs.
"record average production of 132,691 boe/d (74% liquids)"
"Free Funds Flow" = $294.137M or $.46 per diluted share
Net income per diluted share = $1.03
4. Small Ball:
A. Added to MPW in Fidelity Taxable - Bought 5 at $17.68; 5 at $17.55; 5 at $17.21; 5 at $16.65; 5 at $15.8; 5 at $15.35; 5 at $15.05:
Quote: Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPW)
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 (LT debt at $10.1+B)
Website: MPT | Home: At the Very Heart of Healthcare
I will keep averaging down in 5 share lots until I hit 100 shares.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
SU Debt Ratings: Ba1/BBB- (Finra page for 3.5% SU Maturing in 2031 with $1.3B in principal amount sold in November 2020, currently trading near 80)
Last Substantive Buy Discussions:
Item # 2.A. Bought 10 MPW at $17.97 (5/12/22 Post) I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Item # 2.A. Bought 10 MPW at $20.31; 5 at $19.93 (3/24/22 Post) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter report in that post.
Average Cost per share: $17.52 (65 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 per share, last raised from $.28 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment.
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MPW) - Dividend History
Yield at $17.52 = 6.62%
Last Ex Dividend: Today, 6/15/22
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.B. Eliminated MPW- Sold 63+ at $15.55 (11/14/18 Post)
MPW Realized Profits to date: +$1,582.21 (currently at #4 in this basket strategy)
Some Other Buy Discussions (shares have been sold): Item 2.C. Added 10 MPW at $12-Used Commission Free Trade (2/12/18 Post); Item # 5.A. Reinitiated Position in MPW with a 50 Share Buy at $12.85 (8/3/2017 Post); Item # 3 Bought 50 MPW at $11.4 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 9/8/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 4 Bought 50 MPW at $9.85 UPDATE For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 2/12/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; UItem # 3. Bought 100 MPW at $10.42 Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 1/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha;
B. Pared OFS Again in Fidelity Taxable- Sold 15.427 at $12.49:
I sold all shares with a cost basis over $8 that were owned in this account.
Quote: OFS Capital Corp- A BDC
Website: Homepage - OFS Capital
2021 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 29 and ends at page 63)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.F. Bought 40 OFS with an Average Cost Per share of $4.18 (11/7/20 Post); Item # 2.L. Added 5 OFS at $3.97-Fidelity Taxable (11/28/20 Post); Item # 1.K. Added 3 OFS at $4.5 -Fidelity Taxable (8/8/20 Post); Item # 3.E. Added 5 OFS at $9.66; 5 at $9.2; 5 at $8.7; 5 at $6; 5 at $5.65; 2 at $3.7; 10 at $3.79 (4/11/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $60.07 (6/3/22 sale only; YTD this account at $129.96)
Average cost per share this account after pare: $4.49 (90+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 6/3/22 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 per share (regular only)
Dividends & Splits | OFS Capital Corporation
The quarterly rate was slashed from $.34 to $17 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment. The dividend rate was subsequently raised several times to reach the current payout.
Yield at New AC per share this account = 25.84% (using an annual rate of $1.16 per share)
Next Ex Dividend: 6/22/22
OFS Capital Corporation Common Stock (OFS) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Net Asset Value per share history:
3/31/22 : $15.52
12/31/21: $15.18
03/31/21: $11.96 10-Q at page 3
12/21/20: $11.85 10-K at page 69
6/30/20: $10.10
3/31/20: $ 9.71
12/31/19: $12.46
9/30/19: $12.74
6/30/19: $12.95 Page 2 10-Q
3/31/19 $13.04 10-Q
12/31/18 $13.10
6/30/18 $13.70
03/31/18 $13.67
12/31/17 $14.12
12/31/16 $14.82
12/31/15 $14.76
12/31/14 $14.24
12/31/13 $14.54
IPO Offering Price at $15 (November 2012) with proceeds after the underwriters' discount at $13.05 Final Prospectus Supplement
NII per share = $.22, adjusted to $.30 with the consensus at $.29 per Fidelity;
Adjustment of 8 cents is for accrued but not yet paid capital gain incentive fee;
"Net asset value (“NAV”) per common share of $15.52 as of March 31, 2022, an increase from $15.18 as of December 31, 2021";
Net gain on investments of $5.5 million, or $0.41 per common share "principally due to a $10.0 million, or 3.1%, increase in the fair values of our directly originated debt and equity investments";
"As of March 31, 2022, based on fair value, 93% of our loan portfolio consisted of floating rate loans and 97% of our loan portfolio consisted of senior secured loans."
Weighted average yield of performing debt investments: 9%
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 (summary description of investments starts at page 7)
Company Assessment of Risks:
Page 62, 10-Q. Linked above. |
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 2.D. Pared OFS in Fidelity Account - Sold 29+ at $13.06 (4/21/22 Post); Item # 2.M. Pared OFS in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 20 at $7.2 (12/25/20 Post); Item # 3.B. Sold 10 OFS at $12.04 (11/30/19 Post)Item # 4.B. Sold 60 shares at $12 (11/13/19 Post)
OFS Realized Gains to Date: $352.12
Realized Gains Prior to 2022 = $222.16
Goal: Any realized gain on the shares + the dividends.
Price as of 6/14/22 close. |
By selling the 50 shares with a $9.42 cost basis, I could reduce my AC per share to $5.56 and slightly more by selling th lots bought with dividends during 2019.
C. Pared FENY Again in Fidelity Account-Sold 10 at $25:
I have been gradually selling my highest cost shares into the robust energy stock rally.
Profit Snapshot: $88.89 (6/7/22 sale only; YTD at $220.84)
New AC per share: $14.02 (70+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 6/7/22 after pare |
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Pared FENY Again - Sold 10 at $22.74 (6/1/22 Post)
D. Pared XOM in Fidelity Account Again - Sold 4 at $102.79:
Quote: Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)
XOM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Bond Substitute with a small flavor of dividend growth
I sold every share that had a cost basis over $40. Those 4 shares were bought in the $40-$42 price range.
Profit Snapshot: $245.51 (6/7/21 sale only/YTD 9+ shares = +$435.3)
New AC per share this account: $36.40 (11 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 6/7/22 after pare |
The remaining shares were bought during the 2020 meltdown in energy stock prices. The AC per share was reduced from $37.47.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.88 per share
Yield at $36.4: 9.67%
I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 4.A. Pared XOM in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 2 at $89.66 (5/5/22 Post)
E. Added 10 FHN in Fidelity Taxable Account at $22.79; 10 at $22.15:
Average cost per share this account: $20.43 (520+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 6/10 after second 10 share purchase |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.17 per share
Yield at AC: 3.33%, rounded up.
Last Ex Dividend: 6/9/22 (day after this 10 share purchase)
While I currently expect the acquisition to close, and do not currently know any valid reason why either Canadian or U.S. regulators would prevent the merger, the downside risk is probably down to around $17-$18, roughly where FHN was trading before the announcement. FHN Historical Prices
TD Bank-First Horizon deal should pass regulatory muster | S&P Global Market Intelligence
Using the current consensus E.P.S. estimate for 2022, which is $1.56, the P/E at my average cost per share is about 13.09. In assessing my risk, I take into account that information and the dividend yield noted above.
Assuming the deal closes at $25, the share profit upside at a $20.43 AC per share is $2,377.39 plus the dividends.
One analyst expects heightened regulatory scrutiny that will sufficiently delay the approval process that TD will be required to fork over an additional $.65 per share. Opinion: Terms of TD’s First Horizons takeover reflect regulatory scrutiny, staff turnover - The Globe and Mail (quoting John Aiken at Barclays who stated that the "forecast for closing in the current U.S. regulatory environment is aggressive and investors will likely see the US$0.65 per share added on to the final price.”) I do not see the Federal Reserve being motivated by Elizabeth Warren political considerations but the Comptroller of the Currency may be infected. To receive 100% of $.65 per share on top of the $25, the merger would have to be delayed until at least 11/27/23.
Federal Reserve Board - Agencies announce public meeting on proposed acquisition by The Toronto-Dominion Bank of First Horizon Corporation; public comment period extended A public meeting is scheduled for 8/18/22. The 2 U.S. agencies involved in the approval process are the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve Board.
US Regulators Scrutinize Canadian Banks’ Acquisitions - Banking Exchange On 7/14/22, the same two agencies will hold a public hearing for Bank of Montreal's proposed acquisition of U.S. West. BMO Financial Group accelerates North American growth with strategic acquisition of Bank of the West - Dec 20, 2021 That one is also a cash offer. Part of the purchase price will be sourced from about $2.9B in "excess cash" at Bank of the West, which may add a wrinkle to U.S. approval. Bank of the West is not publicly traded in the U.S. and is a subsidiary of BNP Paribas.
F. Added 1 SLG at $57.48; 1 at $56.25; 1 at $54.2; 1 at $52.7; 1 at $50.4; 1 at $49.35:
Quote: SL Green Realty Corp.
SL Green Realty Corp Profile | Reuters
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 2.N. Added to SLG- Bought 1 at $62.25, 1 at $59.95 (5/26/22 Pos) I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in that post. SL Green Realty (SLG) SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
At this pace, I may not reach 100 shares using my current life expectancy.
New Average Cost per share: $61.55 (14 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.3108 per share ($3.7296 annually)
SL Green Realty Corp. Announces Common and Preferred Stock Dividends (6/14/22)
I am not currently reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at AC = 6.06%
Investment categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy and Monthly Income Generation
G. Added 5 HBI at $10.9; 5 at $10.2:
Quote: Hanesbrands Inc.
HBI Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch
Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/1/22
10-Q for the First F/Q Ending 4/2/22
Website: Comfortable Clothing Since 1901 | Hanes
As mentioned in my 6/1/22 post, I am averaging down until I hit 100 shares. Item # 2.I. Added 5 HBI at $11.68 (6/1/222 Post) Each subsequent purchase is just a 5 share lot.
Average cost per share: $13.64 (65+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share
I am reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at AC = 4.4%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/9/22 (owned 50 as of)
I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 2.B. Added to HBI in Schwab Taxable Account- Bought 5 at $14.4; 5 at $13.75; 5 at $13.55; 5 at $13.15; 5 at $12.32 (5/12/22 Post)
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (5/17/22): 5 stars with a FV of $26, narrow economic moat.
Credit Suisse (5/5/22): Outperform with a 12 month PT of $19, lowered from $23
S & P (5/10/22): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $18
I do not have access to the following reports:
In a Cowen & Company report, released on 6/9, the PT was reduced to $11 from $16. I would probably sell my highest cost lots at $16.
On 6/8/22, Barclays cut its rating to equal weight and its PT to $13 from $18.
Over the years, I have noticed a clear tendency of analysts to cut ratings and price targets after a major price decline. The analyst may just be responding to the price decline rather than a change in valuation based on facts rather than conjecture and herd following.
HBI has been in a bear market since topping out near $27 back in 2017. There was cyclical bull move within that bear market that took the price from $7 to around $23 before the stock rolled over and headed back down to its current price. The decline to $7 was mainly due to the pandemic induced stock market decline in March 2020 while the rally was linked to Hanes manufacturing and selling protective gear, a business that has faded with its peak.
H. Added 3 ERPT at $20.3:
Quote: Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item 2.L. Added to EPRT - BOUGHT 2 AT $23.28; 3 AT $23.38; 3 at $22.73; 2 at $21.55 (5/12/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Average Cost per share = $25.13 (30+ shares)
As of close on 6/13/22 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually). Last raised from $.26 effective for the next dividend payment.
EPRT Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at AC = 4.3%, rounded up.
Next Ex Dividend: 6/29/22
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
FHN - here's the risk factor. Elizabeth warren, with sign-ons by Katie porter, Al Green, Jesus (Illinois)
ReplyDeleteWrote a letter asking the deal not be approved because TD used manipulative tactics like Wells Fargo did to push reps into getting customers to open accounts.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/15/warren-asks-bank-regulator-to-reject-td-deal-after-customer-abuse-report.html
The questions would be:
- It's from one report. Did it even happen?
-If so is it still happening. Or is this old news and she's getting her name into the media?
- Four sign-ons. All far left. That's an incredibly small number and range for a letter of this importance. Why?
I had not read the CNBC until you mentioned it. I did reference Warren in my FHN discussion in this post.
DeleteThe current price does reflect some concern that the deal will be blocked for political or other non-valid reasons. If I thought that the deal was a 100% sure thing, and would close in the first 2023 TD fiscal quarter, I would have bought more FHN shares. I will just sit on what I now own.
There's always a risk with everything. This is certainly out of the blue. Hopefully the four sign ons are a strong indicator it will fade out. After it gives them attention.
ReplyDeleteI like to read the original report and get a feel for the timeline.
Gundlach was on CNBC just now. He laid out that path to a bigger crash. Liquidity is tightening. That will catch the edges and changes the narrative. That's when buckling starts happening. He pointed to crypto as possible evidence of a start. I don't know if it will happen, but it's good to see the pathway.
ReplyDeleteShowed, inflation using the 1960s or 80s (don't remember the year) formulas on today's numbers, inflation's at 9%.
Josh Brown is now talking about the same liquidity problem. Solid boring stocks with cash flow and pricing power and divs are what he thinks will be the winners. (Those are what I've been wanting to get.)
This postinxg was a blessing to me for several reasons, and I thank you. The book on the Radical Right was very interesting, and I'd never run into it before. However,, I didn't find in it even the slightest hint of the Jan. 6 attack. Did you? People interested in that kind of comparative history might also want to read Alex Butterworth's The World that Never Was.
ReplyDeleteDavid: The ideology and beliefs that led to the attack were summarized but not the attack itself. Daniel Bell referred to the right's willingness to jettison constitutional processes, to oppose the peaceful transfer of power, and to support authoritarianism while claiming to defend democracy and freedom.
DeleteA recent poll found that almost 1/2 of voters believe republicans are better able to protect democracy than the democrats. Assuming that is somewhat accurate within a reasonable range, the willingness to interfere in the vote counting process among republicans, at least until the republican wins, which is the only correct result irrespective of the actual vote count,will be a powerful and growing threat to America's democracy.
IWM down 4% in a single day. The elevator doors closed and it's in action.
ReplyDeleteHaven't heard commentary about the Jan 6th committee and whether it creates uncertainty that worries the market as well.
The Jan 6th committee hearings and its ultimate report are IMO irrelevant to the Stock Jocks.
ReplyDeleteThe collapse in crypto is relevant since so much money is being incinerated.
The most pressing and concerns are problematic inflation and the related and increasing realization that even the currently anticipated FF rate increases will not bring CPI down to acceptable levels.
There was some optimism after the FED claimed yesterday that its rate hikes will tame the inflation beast which was wishful and more than slightly delusional. Inflation may fix itself but the FED has made one of its most serious policy mistakes in its history by letting the inflation bogeyman loose and and allowing it to become embedded in the economy.
I did some small ball buying today, spending somewhere in the $250 to $300 range on stocks. I am continuing to buy bonds, purchasing $3K in principal amount today including a first mortgage bond. My bids on treasuries were not filled as they rallied into the close.
Going forward, I intend to limit my stock dollar purchases to no more than my cash flow from dividends and interest payments. All proceeds from bonds, which occur frequently, will be redirected into bonds.
"more than slightly delusional"
ReplyDeleteYes! That's the big problem in SO many directions these days.
Even I could have told Fed to raise rates more going back several years.
I haven't bought yet. Saw a burb (on cellphone, I'll post when I find it) that after SnP breaks 20% down, average crashes are another 12%.
As rates rise, next up is rise in interest due on US debt.
I mentioned buying a first mortgage bonds in my prior comment. I am discussing some bonds with 2023 maturities out of time order and that purchase is one of them.
ReplyDeleteThe 1 bond purchase was a 2.6% first mortgage bond issued by Northern States Power, a wholly owned subsidiary of Xcel Energy, maturing on 5/15/23. The bond was bought at 99.456, total cost at 99.556 with a YTM using the TC at 3.012%. The credit ratings are Aa3/A. The make whole provision expires on 11/15/22 which means the issuer can redeem at par on that date to maturity at par value + accrued and unpaid interest. (prospectus S-4)
https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C593425&symbol=XEL4006532
Prospectus linked at Finra.
The YTM spread to the 1 year treasury is about right. I have zero concern about receiving timely interest payments and the principal amount no later than the maturity date.
The 1 year treasury closed today at a 2.88% yield, down 5 basis points.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202206
Another wholly owned Xcel subsidiary is Public Service of Colorado who also issues first mortgage bonds. I have one redeemed yesterday.
Xcel does not guarantee the bonds but the first mortgage bonds issued by its subsidiaries have a higher credit rating that Xcel SU bonds currently at Baa1/BBB+.
XCEL last 10-Q filing:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000007290322000027/xel-20220331.htm
I double checked the Public Service of Colorado first mortgage bond that was redeemed yesterday, which I mentioned in the previous comment. The coupon was 2.25% with a 9/15/22 maturity date. No make whole payment was required within on or after 3/15/22. So it is possible that Northern States Power may redeem its 2.6% first mortgage bond early, possibly as early as 11/15/22 which would make it a 5 month bond with the 6 month treasury (now at 2.2%) being the closest comparison.
DeleteFirst Foundation Bank just upped it's interest rate to 1.65%.
ReplyDeleteI noticed that the average 30 week mortgage rate is now at 5.99% up from 2.98% in May 2020.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/todays-rates/mortgage-rates-for-monday-june-20-2022/
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30
When applied to a $300K mortgage loan, that would increase the annual interest payments from $8,940 to $17,970. Property taxes and insurance costs have risen as well as have home prices.
Further increases in mortgage interest rates can be expected in the weeks and months to come.
After combining all of those cost increases, the inevitable outcome is that millions of median income households will not be able to buy a median priced home.
Homebuilder stocks are already forecasting a major downturn in new home sales based on their price declines.
BZH for example closed last Friday at $10.61, down from its 52 week high of $23.97. The TTM P/E is now at 1.98.
Pulte (PHM) closed at $36.25, with a TTM P/E of 4.44, down from its 52 week high of $58.09. The average price of a Pulte built new home is about $490K.
The only way for those P/E ratios to make any sense is an expectation that earnings will soon collapse.
The economic blowback from a major downturn in new home construction will be widespread given the wide variety of materials, appliances and other items associated with new home construction as well as household expenditures to furnish once completed.
Oh my. 5.99% up from 2.98% 2 years ago.
DeleteThe article's and conversation currently is not whether they'll be a recession or stagnation or something worse than now... but how deep and long it will be.
The usual upbeat approach is that it will be a shallow recession that will merely take a while to recover.
Based on my prior observations of the blue skies forever dominate crowd... I translate that to a bad recession that will last. It will take awhile or each piece, such as housing collapse and increased rents, to impact.
Stunning P/Es. For the market to go that low on a sector (not a single stock's problems), that's a big statement.
Maybe as things collapse, the supply chain problem will easy up? Except of course for products from businesses that go under.
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I've been researching for a new cellphone. Not looking for anything fancy. Headed for Samsung because they promise years of updates. They're mid-range, not entry but not flagship, are Galaxy A with a 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 followed by the year 3 (23). This year in the US they've released only the 0, 1, and 5 levels. ALL the midrange are not released in the US, while they have been in the past.
I'm thinking it's part of the supply chain and chip shortage issues. Motorola hasn't released much in the mid-range either. Google's pixels are all flagship level, no mid-range Nexus out there.
Maybe I'm mid-season changeover, but it's been months.
It's effectively a sizeable inflation to get a decent phone by having to go from $200-300 to $400-450 phones.
Land: For most of my life, a 6% 30 year mortgage rate would be viewed as just fine. It is now viewed as potentially devastating to home sales.
DeleteWhen I finished building my house where I now reside back in March 1982, I paid cash for everything starting with the lot purchase.
The 30 year mortgage rate was then at 17.16% with 2.2 points. Needless to say, I did not look favorably on buying money at that rate. I would have jump through hoops to get 6%.
The problem is in part psychological as investors have been spoiled by a central bank suppression of interest rates far below the inflation rate.
Another problem is the parabolic rise in home prices since the 2006-2009 collapse compared to the rise in median household income. When the cost of borrowing, insurance and property taxes are added into the mix, then a very large percentage of median income households can not afford to buy a median priced home. And that is what led to a price collapse back in 2006-2009. Or put another way, extremely low mortgage rates costs are a main factor causing the spike in home prices.
"The median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $407,600, up 14.8% from May 2021 ($355,000), as prices increased in all regions. This marks 123 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record."
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-fell-3-4-in-may-median-sales-price-surpasses-400000-for-the-first-time#:~:text=The%20median%20existing%2Dhome%20price,longest%2Drunning%20streak%20on%20record.
The "oh my" was because I'm tired of saying "wow." Doubling rates in 2 years is a big deal.
DeleteIf one thinks of it as inflation on the housing sector, it's even more obvious that 50% inflation on rates ... will trigger a cascade of effects.
6% is a lot healthier than the artificially engineered low rates it's been at. But so much has gotten built onto and used to that low rate.
I'm finally signed in. Google wouldn't let me post anonymously. I'd sign in and it wouldn't "take" and showed as not signed in. All while showing a list of blogs to pick from.
ReplyDeleteThe fix was signing out of all accounts before signing in.
I'd signed onto my dad's the other day. Apparently that confused google and it refused to believe when I signed onto my usual account anew.
Well I worked up an appetite. Now I need to go get food.
In the process the May 19th blog kept opening up. It's opening line stands out, all these down days later.
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/05/aio-amcr-amgn-cpb-eai-fhn-fsphx-lyb-nbb.html
Kellogg is breaking into 3 independent companies: North American cereal, snakes and international cereal and plant food.
ReplyDeleteWhile this may unlock some value in the snacks and plant food businesses, I generally do not approve of this kind of financial engineering and it is at least questionable whether shareholders will end up being better off. The plant food business, anchored by Morningstar Foods, has not been valued at all in the stock price IMO and has potential to outgrow North America cereal and snacks. But whatever value is unlocked in snacks and plant food could easily be lost in the value of North American cereal.
In pre-opening trading today, the stock was trading near $72, opened up strong at $71, and then drifted down to close at $68.86, up $1.32.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/k?mod=search_symbol
I own shares in 4 accounts with the largest position being in my Fidelity taxable at just 13 shares. I know that I will eliminate the position north of $71 but have not decided whether I will sell for less.
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The Fed's FF increases is pushing up the 1 year T bill and 2 year treasury note. Most of my bond buying recently has been in the 1 to 2.5 year range.
Close today:
1 Year T Bill: 2.92%
2 Year T Note: 3.21%
Today I bought 11 bonds maturing in the March to July 2024 time frame. I am so far behind in discussing bond trades that I have scheduled a discussion of those purchases in mid-September. It looks like I am headed for $200K in 2024 bond maturities.
I will mention one of the purchases today now, a 3.3% First Mortgage bond issued by Northern States Power-Wisconsin maturing on 6/15/2024.
https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C612819&symbol=XEL4135721
I made two 1 bond purchases with one of those in a taxable account. The TC was 99.240 creating at that cost number a 3.702% YTM. The credit ratings are at Aa2/A. Northern States is exempt from the make whole provision on or after 12/15/23.
That 3.702% YTM is a decent spread to the 2 year T note for such a quality corporate. An investor who has to pay state income taxes on corporate bond interest needs to use the YTMs for the taxation difference when purchases are in a taxable account.
I finally convinced my dad to open a savings account at the 1.65% First Foundation. He should be in a bond ladder, so I'm working up to that.
DeleteAlso if rate will be heading for normal, I may be able to use a more conventional retirement setup that includes bonds!
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/06/amkby-bdn-calf-ftklx-hbi-mdt-mpw-ncz.html