Thursday, March 24, 2022

BRBS, CGBD, CVX, FSK, GPC, HR, MPW, PARA, PAVE, SPTN, SUNS, VTRS, XOM

Economy

New homes sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 772,000 last month, down 6.2% from the February 2021 estimate. Supply increased to 6.3 month from 6.1 in January. The median sales price was $400,600 with the average at $511K. Census Report-New Home Sales February 2022.pdf I suspect that the average median income family will have some difficulty paying for a median price home, particularly with mortgage rates going up. 

Treasury yield have been moving up persistently this month so far: 


FED members are increasingly talking about 50 basis points hikes in the FF rate. 

Goldman sees Fed hiking rates by 50 bps at May, June meetings | Reuters

BlackRock's Larry Fink, who oversees $10 trillion, says Russia-Ukraine war is ending globalization

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Earnings Reports Owned Stocks

Box (BOX) SEC Filed Press Release (This report was for the 4th fiscal quarter ending on 1/31/22; GAAP E.P.S. at ($.06); Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.24 with the consensus at $.233; the largest adjustment to GAAP is a $.32 per share add back for stock based compensation; "Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022 was $233.4 million, a 17% increase from revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021 of $198.9 million."; "Deferred revenue as of January 31, 2022, was $534.2 million, a 15% increase from deferred revenue as of January 31, 2021 of $465.6 million."; "Free cash flow in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022 was $33.3 million. This compares to free cash flow of $41.0 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021.")

Campbell Soup (CPB) SEC Filed Press Release (This report is for the second fiscal quarter ending on 1/30/22; GAAP E.P.S. at $.72; non-GAAP at $.69 in line with the consensus; "Net sales in the quarter decreased 3% versus the prior year to $2.21 billion. Organic net sales, which exclude the impact from the sale of the Plum baby food and snacks business, decreased 2%. Pricing and sales allowances and lower promotional spending had a favorable 5% and 1% impact on net sales, respectively. This was more than offset by an 8% decrease in volume and mix as the company continued to navigate industry-wide labor and supply challenges."; guides fiscal 2022 adjusted E.P.S. to $2.75 to $2.85 compared to $2.86 in the 2021 fiscal year)  

Dropbox (DBX) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. of $.34; non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.41, up from $.28 in the 2020 4th quarter, with the consensus at $.366 per Fidelity; "Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments ended at $1.718 billion."; "Total revenue was $565.5 million, an increase of 12.2% from the same period last year. On a constant currency basis, year-over-year growth would have been 10.8%."; "Paying users ended at 16.79 million, as compared to 15.48 million for the same period last year. Average revenue per paying user was $134.78, as compared to $130.17 for the same period last year."

General Mills (GIS) SEC Filed Press Release (This report was for the 3rd fiscal quarter ending on 2/27/22; GAAP E.P.S. at $1.08; non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.84 with the consensus at $.781 per Fidelity; "Net sales were essentially flat to last year at $4.5 billion, including a 3-point net headwind from divestiture and acquisition activity. Organic net sales increased 4 percent, reflecting 7 points of positive organic net price realization and mix, partially offset by a 4-point headwind from lower organic pound volume.";  "Third-quarter net sales for the Pet segment increased 30 percent to $568 million, driven by favorable net price realization and mix and strong volume growth. Net sales results in the quarter included a 14-point benefit from the pet treats acquisition. Organic net sales were up 16 percent. Segment operating profit increased 8 percent to $111 million, driven primarily by favorable net price realization and mix and higher volume, including benefits from the pet treats acquisition, partially offset by higher input costs and higher SG&A expenses."; for fiscal 2022, "Constant-currency adjusted diluted EPS are now expected to range between flat and up 2 percent, driven by the higher outlook on adjusted operating profit. Adjusted diluted EPS were previously expected to range between down 2 percent and up 1 percent." emphasis supplied) GIS is my largest consumer staple position. The stock rose $1.55 in response to this report yesterday, closing at $64.23. Shortly before the report was released, JPM reiterated its neutral rating and reduced its price target to $64 from $67 (3/22), while GS reiterated its sell rating while raising its PT to $58 from $57 (3/16). 

Manulife (MFC) reports strong 2021 results with record net income of $7.1 billion and core earnings of $6.5 billion, with double-digit growth in APE sales and new business value; Global Wealth and Asset Management net inflows tripled to $27.9 billion (All amounts are in Canadian dollars; Net income of $2.084B or $1.03 per share; core net income of $1.708B or $.84 per share with the consensus at $.811 per Fidelity ; core ROE at 12.7%; efficiency ratio at 49%) MFC is one of my largest life insurance stock holdings. 

Toronto Dominion (TD)(This report is for the fiscal first quarter ending on 1/31/22; All amounts are in Canadian dollars; Reported E.P.S. at $2.02, adjusted to $2.08, up from $1.83 in the year ago quarter; Consensus on non-GAAP basis at $2.05; adjusted net income at $3.833B. TD is in the process of acquiring First Horizon (FHN) which I currently own. TD is currently my largest Canadian bank position) 

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Putin sentenced Alexei Navalny to another 9 years in prison for surviving Putin's effort to murder him with the Novichok nerve agent. Russia Navalny: Putin critic given nine-year jail sentence in trial branded 'sham' - BBC NewsRussia responsible for Navalny poisoning, rights experts say-UN News I am placing my own spin on this development. There is no independent judiciary in Russia. 

The International Court of Justice ordered Russia to cease military operations in Ukraine since it was engaging in genocide. International Court orders Russia to ‘immediately suspend’ military operations in Ukraine-UN NewsSummary of the Order on provisional measures

Russia’s Attacks on Civilian Targets Have Obliterated Everyday Life in Ukraine - The New York Times

One of the more recent crimes against humanity committed by Russia in Ukraine was the intentional  bombing of a theatre where over a thousand civilians in Mariupol had taken shelter. On the grounds of the theatre, clearly visible from the sky, was a notice that children were in the structure and Russia went ahead and bombed it anyway. 

The Russians also bombed a school in Mariupol where 400 civilians had taken refuge. 

Biden says "clear sign" Putin considering use of chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine - CBS News

Retroville shopping mall in Kyiv, Ukraine destroyed by Russian bombs

96-year-old Holocaust survivor killed by Russian strike, memorial institute says - CNN

See explosion and gunfire in Kherson Ukraine amid peaceful protest Russia is not going to tolerate peaceful protests. One elderly protester was shot in the leg by Russian troops. 

TASS military correspondent says Putin is sending army to ‘slaughter’ in Ukraine | Evening Standard

During Russia's assault on Grozny (1999-2000)civilians were intentionally targeted by Russia, including those who were trying to escape the carnage. The Tracking of Civilians: Interviews with Chechen Refugees in Georgia - Russian Federation | ReliefWeb Russia used thermobaric explosives against civilians, which are also known as vacuum bombs. Those bombs would first spray fuel oil on the first blast and then the second blast would set the fuel on fire.  Chechnya Conflict: Use of Vacuum Bombs by Russian Forces | Human Rights Watch Russia used the same strategy in Syria.  Syrians watch in horror as Putin deploys Aleppo playbook in Ukraine | CNN

Video and satellite images show that the Russians have turned most of Mariupol, a city where 450,000 people used to live, into rubble. Based on before and after satellite images, the current estimate is that Russia has destroyed more than 80% of the structures in this city. Civilian structures still standing are no longer habitable and will have to be demolished after the shooting stops. Bodies of civilians lay in the street or are buried where they were murdered by Russian soldiers. Ukraine says Russians bombed art school sheltering 400 in besieged city of Mariupol - CBS News;  Smell of death, bodies in the streets: Fleeing Ukrainians recount 'hell' in Mariupol | The Times of IsraelRetired Gen. Petraeus explains how Ukrainians are taking out Russian generals  Russia has proven that it can and will destroy hospitals with bombs and hit high rise apartment buildings with missiles. 

Shocking aerial footage shows Ukrainian city 'reduced to ashes' - YouTube

I would note that Mariupol is largely a Russian speaking city.  The Cruelest Irony: This Is How Putin Is Saving The Russian Speakers Of Ukraine (89.5% of Mariupol residents identified Russian as their native language) The only possible conclusion is that Russia is intentionally committing war crimes against a Russian speaking population. 

U.S. government formally accuses Russia of committing war crimes in Ukraine

Last Sunday, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, the director of the Russian National Centre for Defence Management, gave Ukraine an ultimatum to lay down their arms and to surrender Mariupol to the Russians invaders. Mizintsev blamed "bandits" and "neo-Nazis" for the destruction of this once vibrant city. Russia demands Mariupol lay down arms but Ukraine says no - ABC News

A Putin Toadie, Dmitry Medvedev, who is the current the deputy secretary of Russia's Security Council and one of the Kleptocrats in Putin's inner circle, warned that Russia could start a nuclear war since the U.S. and its allies were playing a "primitive game" to humiliate and destroy Russia. His argument, reduced to its essence, is that a cold blooded murderer is the victim when punished. In Russia, everything is upside down. Corruption claims 'nonsense' - Russian PM Medvedev - BBC News(4) Он вам не Димон - YouTube (English subtitles)

Earlier Medvedev threatened Poland who has taken in almost 2M Ukrainian refugees fleeing from Russia's invasion. Russia's chilling new threat to Poland as ex-President writes sinister letter - World News - Mirror OnlineUNHCR - Poland welcomes more than two million refugees from Ukraine

Russian Soldiers Took Their City, Then Their Homes - The New York Times  Videos of Russian soldiers ejecting families from their homes is included in the article. The residents were told that they would be immediately killed for merely possessing a cell phone. One Russian soldier told an 8 year old girl that the Russians were throwing them out of their home in order to liberate them from Nazis.  

Putin told a cheering and Russian flag waving crowd last Friday that Russia's special military operation in Ukraine was a testament to Russia's "Christian values". Russia was simply trying to stop "neo Nazis and extreme nationalists" from committing "genocide". Putin’s speech at staged patriotic rally is abruptly cut off. Kremlin claims it was just a glitch - The Washington Post

So far, Ukraine has killed 5 Russian Generals and the Deputy Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The Russian soldier death toll is over 10,000 now and will likely reach 30,000 by early summer. Russian general killed after Ukrainian forces destroy command post;  What the Reported Deaths of 4 Russian Generals Mean About the Fighting in Ukraine | Military.comPutin loses ANOTHER top commander: Black Sea Fleet captain, 51, is 'shot dead near Mariupol' | Daily Mail Online 

As many as 40K Russian troops killed, wounded, held prisoner or missing: NATO | TheHill (3/23/22) What did Putin expect when he ordered the invasion? Ukraine is now united in their hatred of Russia, a hatred that will burn undiminished for at least a generation. What did Russia do when Germany invaded in WWII? This is not a difficult concept to grasp, except for Putin. 

Report of 10,000 Russian Deaths Immediately Deleted by Pro-Putin TabloidUkraine war: Russian newspaper publishes 9,861 soldier death toll – then deletes it | South China Morning Post (3/22/22) That number is probably substantially underestimated given the number of dead Russian soldiers whose bodies are left in destroyed vehicles or where they died. Ukraine claims that almost 15,000 Russian soldiers have died through last weekend.  

How is Putin going to hide the body bags of Russian soldiers when they are returned; or to prevent Russian soldiers from telling people what they actually did in Ukraine?  Maybe, Russia's "Parliament" will make it a crime, punishable by 15 years in prison, for a mother to ask what happened to her son. 

Russian Troops Told Ukrainian They Would Protect Him After Their Sniper Shot Him

War crimes in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia

Russia portrays itself as the victim, which is normal for Russians. Everybody is out to get them and to take away their way of life. It is a delusionary mental illness created by Putin's propaganda. Filmmaker Maxim Pozdorovkin on the impact of Putin’s propaganda war - The Washington Post 

Part of Putin's long standing propaganda campaign is a ridiculous claim that the West is trying to destroy Russia when the West responds to Russia's bad acts which is nonsense of course but that ridiculousness works on the intended audience.  Russia could have chosen to have friendly ties and economic integration with the West, but Putin and his supporters prefer to self-destruct, send Russia spiraling into a Depression, and then wrap themselves into perpetual woe is me Victimhood. Perhaps they would enjoy nailing themselves to a cross.  

Analyst breaks down how Ukraine is turning the tables on Russia - YouTube

Ukrainians claim to have destroyed large Russian warship in Berdyansk | CNN

Fox News Hosts Entertained Putin-Friendly Talking Points. Then Their Colleagues Were Killed in Ukraine. | Vanity Fair One Fox "news" anchor recently asked a guest whether Biden engineered the Russian invasion as a "distraction". 

Russian foreign minister praises Fox "News" coverage of war in Ukraine I have to put "news" in quotes.    

Republicans are starting to blame Biden for Russia's invasion. Many republicans who voted against the recent aid package for Ukraine say with a serious expression that Biden is not doing enough to help. Full List of 31 Republicans Who Voted Against Military Aid for Ukraine Flagrant and shameless hypocrisy is one of their most dominant personality characteristics. 

GOP shrugs off Trump impeachment echoes in Russia-Ukraine war - POLITICO

A Chinese vlogger shared videos of war-torn Ukraine. He's been labeled a national traitor - CNN Facts are Fake News in China as well.  

Mark Meadows, Who Spread Bogus Election-Fraud Claims, Is Now Being Investigated for Alleged Voter Fraud | Vanity Fair

GOP drops any subtlety in centering the Jackson nomination fight on race - The Washington Post This should surprise no one. 

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1. Corporate Bonds

In the coming months, I am hoping that interest rates rise since I am primarily a bond investor now who has been unwilling to buy at the abnormally low yields that previously existed. 

When building an investment grade corporate bond ladder, I will consider buying bonds from an issuer who has or soon will be redeeming another bond that I own.  

That is the case with the FS KKR bond discussed below. 

On 4/15/22, FS KKR Capital will redeem its 4.75% coupon SU bond:

I bought those two bonds at a total cost of 98.409. Item # 4.D. (5/6/20 Post) As mentioned in that post, I will not own more than 2 FSK bonds. While I now own 4, that is only for a few more days.  

Bonds issued by pass through entities like BDCs and REITs IMO have an inherent elevated risk since cash flow is being used to pay dividends to common shareholders. 

I have $47K in corporate bonds that mature later this year and will redirect all of those proceeds to new corporate bond purchases. 

A. Bought 2 FS KKR Capital 3.4% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 96.04

This detailed excerpt from my confirmations contains relevant information about this bond including its Baa3 credit rating from Moody's, or just one notch above the highest junk rating.  

Issuer: FS KKR Capital Corp.  (FSK) - A BDC

FINRA Page: Bond Detail The Finra page contains a price chart. This bond traded at over 106 in September 2021. 

Current Yield at Total Cost: 3.54%.

YTM at Total Cost: 4.54%, rounded up

Accrued Interest Paid to Seller: $11.71

I will receive that back when FS KKR makes the next semi-annual interest payment. As previously discussed, accrued interest that I paid to the seller will be included in my 1099 as taxable interest, which requires an adjustment in Schedule B. 2021 Instructions for Schedule B When I am an active bond buyer in the secondary market, the total accrued interest amount paid to bond sellers can be a meaningful sum. 

I discussed paring my FSK common stock position in Item #2.M. below. The pare increased my dividend yield to 12.73%. 

When I am willing to buy bonds, I will also frequently own the common shares. 

Researching the credit worthiness of a bond involves a review of earnings reports and other documents that would normally be examined for just a stock purchase. 

B. Bought 1 Morgan Stanley 3.125% SU Bond Maturing on 7/27/26 at a 99.181 Total Cost

FINRA Page 

Issuer:  Morgan Stanley (MS)

MS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

I own the common shares. 

Credit Ratings: A1/BBB+ 

Bought at 99.081

Total Cost at 99.181

YTM at TC = 3.328%

Current Yield at TC = 3.15%

I selected this MS bond since 1 bond lots can be bought easily and I anticipate averaging down.  

2. Small Ball

A. Added to HR- Bought 5 at $26.5


Quote: Healthcare Realty Trust Inc.

HR SEC Filings

2021 HR Annual Report

Properties Page 1

Last Buy Discussion:  Item # 1.D. Bought 5 HR at $30.08 (9/24/21 Post) I discussed the second quarter earnings report in that post.

HR is in the process of acquiring Healthcare Trust of America (HTA). The price decline since my last purchase was in response to that acquisition offer. 

As noted in the preceding linked post, I own 70 shares of HTA with an average cost of $22.35.   

Both HR and HTA have difficulty meaningfully growing cash available for distribution. I attribute that long term problem to buying properties from more than willing sellers at low capitalization rates and then selling stock and incurring more debt to finance the purchases. 

My current plan is to keep the 10 HR shares and to eliminate my larger HTA position before the merger is consummated, reinvesting the proceeds into either HR or HTA senior unsecured debt. 

HR Average cost per share = $28.29   (10 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share.

The quarterly rate was $.30 in 2013.  Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated Common Stock (HR) Dividend History | Nasdaq This REIT can not meaningfully increase the dividend since it is meaningfully  increasing the cash available for distribution per share (see below).  

Yield at AC per share = 4.38%

Last Ex Dividend: 2/25/21

Last Earnings Report ( Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

"Normalized" FFO = $64.591M or $.44 per share

Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) = $48.762M or or $.33 per share

For the Q/E 12/31/12, FAD per share was reported at $.31Fourth Quarter 2012 Earnings Press Release

B. Bought 10 MPW at $20.31; 5 at $19.93



Quote: Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPW)

MPW SEC Filings 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

2021 Annual Report As of 12/31/21, MPW has "investments in 437 facilities and approximately 46,000 licensed beds in 32 states in the U.S., in six countries in Europe, across Australia, and in Colombia in South America." 

Most of the facilities are hospitals. 

Website: MPT | Home: At the Very Heart of Healthcare

MPW  - Investor Relations

Average cost per share = $20.18  (15 shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 per share, last raised from $.28 effective for the 2022 first quarter. 

Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MPW) - Dividend History

Yield at $20.18: 5.75%, rounded up. 

Last Ex Dividend:  3/16/22  (owned all as of)

Part of the 2021 Dividends Classified as ROC:  

Excerpt from MPW IRS Form 8937

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release

Normalized FFO = $279M

Normalized FFO per share = $.47

2021 Normalized FFO per share = $1.75 ($1.036B)

2022 Normalized FFO per share guidance at $1.81 to $1.85

Reconciliation of Net Income to Cash Flow Numbers: 

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 3.B. Eliminated MPW- Sold 63+ at $15.55 (11/14/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $187.01) 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem 2.C. Added 10 MPW at $12-Used Commission Free Trade (2/12/18 Post)Item # 5.A. Reinitiated Position in MPW with a 50 Share Buy at $12.85 (8/3/2017 Post) The lowest purchase price was probably at $9.84. Item # 4 Added 50 MPW at $9.84 Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 2/12/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

MPW Realized Gains to Date: $1,582.11

C. Added to BRBS- Bought 5 at $15.9; 5 at $15.10; 10 at $14.90


Quote: Blue Ridge Bankshares Inc.

BRBS SEC Filings

10-K for 2021 This bank holding company has grown through a series of recent acquisitions (see pages 1-2)

There are no analyst estimates. The market cap at $15 is about $281+M. 

5 Year Financial Data

Last Discussed: Item # 2.L. Bought 5 BRBS at $16.49  (8/12/21 Post) 

Average cost per share after adds: $15.44

Snapshot Intraday on 3/18/22 after last buy 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share

Yield at $15.44: 3.11%, rounded up. 

Last Ex Dividend: 1/18/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21 Post): SEC Filed Press Release 

"The Company continues to grow its partnerships with fintech providers and ended the fourth quarter of 2021 with active partnerships, including Unit, Flexible Finance, Increase, Upgrade, Kashable, Jaris, Aeldra, Grow Credit, MentorWorks, and Marlette. Loans held for sale and loans held for investment related to fintech relationships totaled approximately $25.5 million and $10.3 million as of December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, while deposits related to these relationships were approximately $189 million and $42 million as of December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Interest and fee income related to fintech partnerships represented approximately $3.4 million and $680 thousand of revenue for the Company in 2021 and 2020, respectively."

Net Income: $12.793M

Net income in the 4th quarter and in 2021 was juiced by significant non-recurring income including $6.2M from terminating interest rate swaps, a $5.7M fair value in the company's investments and a $24.3 M gain from the sale of PPP loans as detailed in the following quote:

"Noninterest income for the fourth quarter of 2021 was $22.2 million compared to $13.5 million and $18.0 million for the third quarter of 2021 and the fourth quarter of 2020, respectively. Mortgage banking income, including mortgage servicing rights, contributed $5.9 million and $9.5 million of noninterest income in the fourth and third quarters of 2021, respectively, and $16.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. During the fourth quarter of 2021, the Company realized gains of $6.2 million on the termination of interest rate swaps that hedged interest rates on certain FHLB advances. Other income in the fourth and third quarters of 2021 included $5.7 million and $1.0 million, respectively, of fair value adjustments for the Company’s investments, primarily in certain fintech companies. Noninterest income for the year ended December 31, 2021 and 2020 was $88.0 million and $56.8 million, respectively. Noninterest income in 2021 included the second quarter gain on the sale of PPP loans of $24.3 million."

E.P.S. = $.68

NIM at 3.39%, down from 3.88% in the 2020 4th quarter

Operating Efficiency Ratio = 58.7%

NPL Ratio: .60%

NPA Ratio: .61%

ROA, ROE, and ROTE ratios juiced by non-recurring income items. 

Total Capital Ratio: 13.11%

Tangible Book Value Per Share: $13.01

2021 Net Income = $52.477M

2021 E.P.S. = $2.94 

D. Eliminated SUNS - Sold 13 at $13.8

Quote: Solar Senior Capital Ltd - An externally managed BDC 

Profit Snapshot: $59.52

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 2.G. Restarted SUNS - Bought 10 at $15.61; 1 at $7.75; 2 at $6.9 (5/9/20 Post) 

Dividend: Monthly at $.10 per share

Last Ex Dividend: 3/17/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SLR Senior Investment Corp. (SUNS) Announces Results

I had an unfavorable opinion about this report. 

NII per share = $.22, adjusted to $.27 for merger expenses; 

The consensus was at $.29, though it is unclear whether that excluded or included merger expenses

The quarterly dividend, paid in monthly installments, is $.30 per share; 

Net asset value per share at $15.43, down from $15.91 as of 12/31/20

Other BDCs that I own have reported significant increases in NAV per share Y-O-Y.

SUNS is in the process of being acquired by the BDC SLR Investment Corp. (SLRC), which I own. I had a similar unfavorable reaction to the SLRC 4th quarter report.  SLR Investment Corp. and SLR Senior Investment Corp. Announce Merger (12/1/21)("Under the terms of the proposed merger, SUNS shareholders will receive an amount of SLRC shares with a net asset value (“NAV”) equal to the NAV of SUNS shares that they hold at the time of closing. . . .  For illustrative purposes, based on NAVs as of September 30, 2021 and including expected transaction costs and distributions, SLRC would issue approximately 0.7763 shares for each SUNS share outstanding, resulting in approximate pro forma ownership of 77.2% for current SLRC stockholders and 22.8% for current SUNS stockholders.")

Other Sell Discussions

Item # 4.C. Eliminated SUNS-Sold 62+ at $17.34-Used Commission Free Trade (5/8/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $91.16

Item # 2.B. Sold Highest Cost SUNS Lot in Fidelity Account and Item #2.C. Eliminated SUNS in Schwab Account-Sold 112+ at $16.72 (3/27/19 Post)(profit snapshots = $30.98

Item # 2.B. Sold 50 SUNS at $17.45 on ex-dividend date (3/1/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $117.48)

The IPO was at $20 per share in 2011, with net proceeds to SUNS at $18.6 before its expenses: IPO 

SUNS Realized Gains: $299.14

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis. That is the goal for all BDC positions. This goal was achieved for SUNS.   

E. Pared CGBD - Sold 25+ at $14.46

Quote:  TCG BDC Inc. 

CGBD has been a problematic holding for me since my first purchases proved to be at to high of a price. 

CGBD Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch Estimates for a BDC will be net investment income per share. 

CGBD SEC Filings 

2021 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 23 and ends at page 53

Management: External 

Profit Snapshot: +$31.09


Average Cost per share this account after pare: $12.58 (98+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 3/2 after pare 

The AC per share was reduced from $12.71

Dividend: Quarterly at $.32 per share  (regular only)

Yield at $12.58 AC per share = 10.17%, rounded down. 

Net Asset Value per share history

12/31/21: $16.91

12/31/20: $15.39

12/31/19:  $16.56 8-K 

12/31/18:  $18.12 8-K 

6/30/17:  $18.01

The Initial Public Offering was in June 2017. The public offering price was $18.75. The external advisor paid 50% of the $.56 per share underwriters' discount. Prospectus 

CGBD's offering expenses were then estimated at $1.8M or approximately $.20 per share. 

After those net expense items, the net proceeds to the BDC were about $18.27 per share. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): TCG BDC (CGBD) SEC Filed Press Release

NII per share = $.40 in line with consensus 

Net Asset Value per share = $16.91

The Board declared a regular dividend of $.32 per share and a special dividend of $.08. 

"As of December 31, 2021, the total weighted average yield for our first and second lien debt investments on an amortized cost basis was 7.68%, which includes the effect of accretion of discounts and amortization of premiums and are based on interest rates as of December 31, 2021. As of December 31, 2021, on a fair value basis, approximately 1.6% of our debt investments bear interest at a fixed rate and approximately 98.4% of our debt investments bear interest at a floating rate, which primarily are subject to interest rate floors."

Portfolio Lien Characteristics: 

The investment funds referenced in the previous snapshots have 100% and 87% weightings in first lien debt. 

Internal Risk Ratings: 

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 1.B.  Added 10 CGBD at $13.95; 10 at $13.5; 10 at $12.6- Used Commission Free Trades (1/13/19 Post) 

My average cost per share was then at $15.1. 

I reduced the AC per share prior to this last pare by averaging down thereafter in small lots. The price range was from $4.54 to $12.89 starting in 2020. I reinvested the dividends through the January 2021 payment when the reinvestment price was at $10.94. The lowest reinvestment price was at $5.72 (4/15/20)

I still own my highest cost lots bought in 2018. Item # 1.B. Bought 10 CGBD at $16.2 and 10 at $15.7  10/21/18 Post)  

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends paid.   

F. Eliminated SPTN: Sold 15+ at $29.01 in Fidelity Account; 20 at $31.05 in Vanguard Account; and 10 at $30.64 in Schwab Account



Quote:  SpartanNash Co. (SPTN)

SPTN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SPTN SEC Filings

Profit Snapshots: +$421.49

 
15+ at $122.53


20 at $199.95

10 at $99.01

I also eliminated positions in Roth IRA accounts.  

Last DiscussedItem # 1.C. Bought 10 SPTN at $21.36; 5 at $21; 5 at $20.5 (9/24/21 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.21, last raised from $.20 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. 

SPTN Dividend History | Nasdaq

Last Earnings Report (Fiscal Q/E 1/1/22): SEC Filed Press Release I sold in response to this earnings report. 

"Consolidated net sales for the fourth quarter were $2.09 billion compared to $2.25 billion in the prior year quarter, with the 53rd week of 2020 contributing $158.9 million of net sales to the prior year quarter. After consideration of the 53rd week impact, the increase in net sales was generated through higher comparable store sales within the Retail segment, continued growth among existing Food Distribution customers, and the impact of inflationary pricing across all segments, partially offset by lower sales within the Military segment."



Adjusted E.P.S. for the year ago quarter was $.43. 

Outlook: 


G. Pared XOM - Sold 1.437 at $81.03; 1.878 at $85.48


Quote: Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) 

Investment Category: Bond Substitute with a small flavor of dividend growth. 

XOM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

XOM SEC Filings 

2021 Annual Report 

I eliminated the remaining shares purchased with dividends and my highest cost 1 share lot. 

Profit Snapshot: +$97.4

Average Cost per share this account$38.18 (17 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 3/7/22 after pare

The AC per share was reduced from $40.78. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.88 per share ($3.52 annually), last raised from $.87 effective for the 2021 4th quarter payment.  

Dividend information | ExxonMobil

Yield at $38.18: 9.22%

Last Ex Dividend: 2/9/2022 (owned all as of) 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. $2.08

GAAP Net Income: $8.87B

Non-GAAP E.P.S. $2.05

Consensus at $1.94 per Fidelity

Capital and Exploration Expenditures: $5.808B

2021 cash flow from operating activities: $48B 

XOM is a major holding in the ETF FENY and CEF PEO which I own.  

Adams Natural Resources Fund (PEO) Portfolio-Morningstar

Fidelity® MSCI Energy ETF (FENY) Portfolio-Morningstar

I recently pare my FENY position: Item # 2.H. Sold Highest Cost 18 FENY (2/10/22 Post) That pare reduced my position to 100+ shares with an AC of $14.65 per share. 

I have not discussed PEO in a long time. My current position is 276+ shares. I have been reinvesting the dividend. As of 12/31/21, PEO had a 15.9% weighting in XOM and 13.8% in CVX. I have been paring my PEO position but have not discussed those trades. 

Quote: Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. OverviewPEO Adams Natural Resources Fund- CEF Connect 

H. Pared PARA- Sold 5 at $35.46:


Quote: Paramount Global Cl B Viacom recently changed its name and symbol to Paramount Global (PARA).  

PARA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

2021 Annual Report 

SEC Filings 

Investor Relations - Paramount

Brands | Paramount

Profit Snapshot: $.81

Last DiscussedItem # 2.B. (12/3/21 Post) I discussed the 2021 third quarter earnings report in that post. 

Average cost per share this account: $31.97 (50+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 3/2/22 after pare 

Closing Price 3/23/22: $37.62, up $.19 

I own PARA in several accounts. The largest position is this 50 share lot. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share 

Last Ex Dividend: 3/14/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21):  SEC Filed Press Release 

Streaming revenue rose 48% to $1.3B Y-O-Y.  

Paramount + subscribers increased by 7.3M to 32.8M.   

Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.26

Consensus at $.426

PARA missed the consensus estimate due to programming expenses associated with its streaming service Paramount +.  PARA is creating far more content for its streaming service than Disney and charges about 1/3rd less per month.   

GAAP E.P.S. at $3.05

GAAP earnings include $2.227B in gains primarily resulting from the sales of CBS Studio Center and a NYC office tower. 

Why Paramount Global Stock Was Surging Higher Today | The Motley Fool (3/14/22). The Stock Jocks interpreted a comment made by PARA's CEO as expressing a willingness to entertain acquisition offers. The speculation is that Apple or Amazon may be the most natural acquirers. 

Last EliminationItem # 1. Eliminated VIAC in Schwab Account-Sold 107 at $40.18 (1/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $299.07)

I. Pared PAVE in Fidelity Account-Sold 3 at $27.21:

Quote: Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF Overview

Sponsor's Website: U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF

Expense Ratio = .47%

Holdings at 99 as of 3/18/22 

Profit Snapshot: $13.42


Last Discussed: Item # 2.Q. Bought 8 PAVE - Multiple Purchases with an AC at $22.38 (3/6/21 Post) 

Average Cost per share this account: $22.17 (5 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 3/2/22 after pare

The AC per share was reduced from $22.38. 

Holdings Greater than 2% Weighting as of 3/18/22: 

Dividends: Paid semi-annually and viewed by me as immaterial 

J. Sold 1.029 CVX at $143.47


Quote: Chevron Corp. 

Closing Price 3/23/21: $165.86, up +$1.77 

CVXAnalyst Estimates | MarketWatch

CVX SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report 

Profit Snapshot: +$41.17


Average cost per share after pare: $97.62

Snapshot Intraday on 2/28/22 after pare

The AC in this account was reduced from $99.93. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.42 per share ($5.68 annually), last raised from $1.34 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. 

CVX Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at new AC this account: 5.82%, rounded up. 

Last Ex Dividend: 2/15/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): Chevron (CVX) SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP net income of $5.055B or $2.63 per share which includes "asset sale gains of $520 million, losses on the early retirement of debt of $260 million and pension settlement costs of $82 million"; 

Non-GAAP net income of $4.9B or $2.56 per share with the consensus at $3.12 per Fidelity; 

4th Quarter Sales and Operating Revenues = $45.861B and $155.606B for 2021 

2021 free cash flow = $21.1B, a record for the company 

2021 GAAP E.P.S. at $8.14, adjusted to $8.13.  

"Net oil-equivalent production of 1.22 million barrels per day in fourth quarter 2021 was up 21,000 barrels per day from a year earlier. The increase was due to net production increases in the Permian Basin and the absence of Gulf of Mexico weather effects, partially offset by a 48,000 barrel per day decrease related to the Appalachian asset sale. The net liquids component of oil-equivalent production in fourth quarter 2021 increased 6 percent to 929,000 barrels per day, and net natural gas production decreased 9 percent to 1.73 billion cubic feet per day, compared to last year’s fourth quarter."

"The company’s average sales price per barrel of crude oil and natural gas liquids was $63 in fourth quarter 2021, up from $33 a year earlier. The average sales price of natural gas was $4.78 per thousand cubic feet in fourth quarter 2021, up from $1.49 in last year’s fourth quarter."

I own CVX in several accounts. 

K. Added to VTRS - Bought 3 at $12; 2 at $11.2; 3 at $10.3; 2 at $9.9




Quote: Viatris Inc.

The share price tanked in response to an announcement that it was selling its biologics business.  


VTRS will receive $2B in cash and $1B in convertible preferred stock upon closing and up to an additional $324M in cash in 2024. The buyer is currently a private company based in India that has committed to an IPO "as early as late 2023". 

After reading several analyst comments, the negative reaction had more to do with VRTS selling is growth business rather than the price received for that business. For whatever reason, the Stock Jocks expressed immediate hatred for this deal as reflected in the price action. 

Website: Viatris | Global Healthcare Company

VTRS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

VTRS SEC Filings

Last DiscussedItem # 1.M. Eliminated VTRS in Vanguard Taxable - Sold 10 at $14.51(1/20/22 Post) 

Buy DiscussionsItem # 2.F. Added to VTRS in Fidelity Taxable-Bought 5 at $12.7; 5 at $12.5; 2 at $12.17 (12/22/21 Post)Item # 2.I. Added to VTRS-Bought 2 at $13.56; 5 at $13.13 (11/26/21 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly $.12, recently increased from $.11. Viatris Announces 9% Dividend Increase, Fourth Consecutive Quarterly Dividend - Jan 6, 2022

Last Ex Dividend

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release

Non-GAAP E.P.S. at 

Consensus at $.828 per Fidelity

GAAP Loss per share of ($.22)

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

4th quarter free cash flow: $325.7M

2021 free cash flow: $2.559.7B

Guides 2022 free cash flow to $2.5 to $2.9B 

Select Product Sales: 

L. Bought 1 GPC at $121.24

Quote: Genuine Parts Co. 

Company Website: Genuine Parts Company 

Investment categories: Dividend growth/Large Cap Valuation

Genuine Parts Company Profile | Reuters

Genuine Parts Company Key Metrics | Reuters

GPC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 3/23/22, average E.P.S. is at $7.59; at $8.14 for 2023 and at $8.54 for 2024) 

GPC SEC Filings 

2021 Annual Report 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.895 per share. 

Genuine Parts Company Announces 66th Consecutive Year of Increased Dividends - Feb 14, 2022 The dividend was increased by 10% to $3.58 per share from $3.26. 

Yield at $121.24: 2.95%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/3/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release

GAAP E.P.S. from continuing operations at $1.79

Consensus at $1.60

Revenues at $4.8B, up 13%

2021 Revenues up 14.1% to $18.9B

2021 Non-GAAP E.P.S. at  

2021 Free cash flow of $1B

2022 Outlook: E.P.S. of $7.45 to $7.6 with revenue growth of 9%-11% and free cash flow of $1.2 to $1.4B 

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers)

Morningstar (3/11/22): 3 stars with a FV of $133 

Argus (3/2/22): Buy with a $150 PT.

S & P (2/17/22): 3 stars with a $135 PT  

M. Pared FSK - Sold 9+ at $23.04

Quote: FS KKR Capital Corp. - A BDC

FSK has been a problematic stock for me. 

There was a 1 for 4 reverse stock split in June 2020. FS KKR Capital Corp. Announces Effectiveness of Four-to-One Reverse Stock Split For purchases made prior to that reverse split, it is necessary to multiply my purchase prices by 4 when comparing to the current price.  

Website: FS/KKR Advisor, LLC – One of the largest managers of BDCs

FSK SEC Filings 

Management: External

Profit Snapshot: $.34

Average Cost per share this account: $19.79 (69+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 3/2/22 after pare

The AC per share was reduced from $20.19. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.63 per share (regular only) or $2.52 per share annually. 

Dividend information 

Yield at $19.79 = 12.73%, rounded down. 

Last Ex Dividend: 3/15/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): FS KKR Capital (FSK) SEC Filed Press Release 

Net investment income of $.66 per share with the consensus at $.608 per Fidelity; 

Net asset value per share reported at $27.17, up from $27.14 as of 9/30/21 and $25.02 as of 12/31/20; 

"As of December 31, 2021, investments on non-accrual status represented 1.9% and 3.9% of the total investment portfolio at fair value and amortized cost, respectively, compared to 3.7% and 5.1% as of September 30, 2021"; 

Eliminating the impact of merger accounting conventions,  the "weighted average annual yield on all debt investments was 7.9%, compared to 7.5% as of September 30, 2021" 

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.

15 comments:

  1. For the first time in about 2 years, I looked at the bonds being offered by Fidelity pursuant to its Corporate Notes program. The bonds are sold at par value with no accrued interest since they are issued on the settlement date for purchases. Par value is $1K per bond.

    I bought one Goldman Sachs 2.4% SU maturing on 4/28/23 (11 months) and 1 GS 2.7% SU maturing on 9/29/23.

    While I still have $47K in corporate bond maturities remaining this year, my bond ladder is really light for 2023 primarily due to issuer early redemptions subject to make whole payments.

    For anyone interested, those bonds can be found by first clicking the "Investment Products" tab and then clicking "Fixed Income, Bonds, and CDs" tab. Then click the blue tab "Search for Investments", then click "New Issues" and then "Corporate".

    ReplyDelete
  2. Meta Platforms Inc. (FB)
    $224.38 +$4.96 +2.26%
    Last Updated: Mar 25, 2022 at 9:50 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fb?mod=over_search

    My crystal ball actually worked for a change when I predicted on 2/25/22 that FB would go back over $220 within 30 days.

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/02/amgn-axunca-eaf-dea-econ-gty-hban-mtb.html?showComment=1645796324902#c6900277619784917408

    +++

    Paramount (PARA), which I discuss in this post, premiered its new HALO series on Paramount + last night. I subscribe to that streaming service and thought the first episode was excellent.

    I am playing HALO games on my new XBOX and am somewhat surprised that my aged brain was able to move so quickly into the "Legendary" difficulty with at least 1 "skull".

    ++

    Russia started the war in eastern Ukraine back in 2014 in conjunction with its illegal seizure of Crimea that year. After starting that conflict in eastern Ukraine, Putin and his cronies claimed that Ukraine was engaged in genocide of Russian speaking people in the separatist regions providing no proof of course since there was none. Putin then used that unproven genocide allegation to justify the Ukrainian invasion. It is an obvious crock. The only country committing genocide against Russian speaking people residing in Ukraine is Russia, as shown in clarity by its actions in Mariupol where most of the citizens speak Russian.

    e.g.
    https://nypost.com/2022/03/25/around-300-killed-in-bombing-of-mariupol-theater-marked-children-council/

    What renders Russia's indiscriminate bombing and missile attacks against civilian structures even more evil is that they blame the destruction of this city on Ukrainian "Nazis".

    https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/03/24/russia-state-tv-mariupol-drone-zw-orig.cnn-business/video/playlists/business-news/


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I held on my 3 FB. They're now in the green at $3.69!

      Oh, humm. That won't even pay for the parking for my dad and I to play tourist this afternoon. More rally needed.

      I can't guess which way it's going.

      The Russian Putin genocide of Russia speakers, pushed this into the stratosphere. But there will still be plenty who think Putin is in normal range.

      Delete
  3. The ten year treasury yield rose 14 basis points today, closing at a 2.48% yield. The 2 year treasury note close at 2.3%, up 17 basis points. The Bond Ghouls are starting to price into yields a 50 basis point increase in the FF rate when the FED meets in May. That kind of increase will have more of an impact on short term yields than on intermediate term ones.

    The CME FEDWatch tool has the odds currently at 70.5% that the FED will hike 50 basis points in May.
    The odds are better than 50/50 that the FF rate will be at least in the 2.5% to 2.75% range by December 2022 and at 92% at between 2.25% to 2.5%.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

    For the most part, I do not remember the prices paid for groceries in general, but I do notice a price hike for a frequently purchased item like General Mills Progresso soups. I noticed yesterday that the price had risen 10% compared to my last purchase about two weeks ago. The price hike is probably justified based on increased transportation, packaging (aluminum cans) and commodity costs over the past several months.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I noted today that the GIS Progresso soups that I has increased now by 20%, rather than the 10% noted in my prior comment. I was given a day or two to adjust to the first 10% increase before being hit with the second one.

      ++

      AT & T announced that is next quarterly dividend will be $.2775 per share, down from $.52. The cut was expected due to the spinoff of WarnerMedia to AT&T shareholders which will occur in April. "On the closing date of the transaction, anticipated to be in April, AT&T shareholders will receive, on a tax-free basis, an estimated 0.24 shares of stock in Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) for each share of AT&T common stock."

      https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/732717/000119312522085220/d284241dex991.htm

      After slashing its dividend, AT & T notes that its stock "remains among the best dividend-yielding stocks in the United States and in the Fortune 500." That is true because the stock has been in a bear market, closing last Friday at $23.84 with the 52 week high at $33.88 and was trading at over $38 in February 2020.

      I own both T and Discovery (DISCA). I have been adding to T in the low 20s but have not been discussing those trades. My cost basis will be adjusted down when the spin off occurs. I currently own 77+ shares in my Fidelity account with an AC per share of 26.8. So that would give me 18 more DISCA shares plus a cash payment for the fractional share amount.

      My DISCA position is currently near 60 shares and I have been buying in the low $22 to $25 range. The last elimination was at $42.68:


      February 27, 2021 Post
      Item #1.C.
      https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/02/abbv-aep-bhp-bmy-cswc-disca-eric-grx.html

      Delete
    2. I paid $14 for a noodle bowl at the food court to go. A food court simple bowl?

      I could have gotten nearly 3 overpriced Amy's Organic frozen dishes instead. Those $4 dishes are now $5.

      As rates go up, house buying will slow. Also with less covid work at home. With it, home goods will slow. There's a rockiness or unevenness coming that won't be that quick to resolve (in more than these two subareas.) A year or 2 at least, seems reasonable.

      Delete
  4. The theme for the Stock Jocks so far today is that Putin will agree to a cease fire as he morphs into a non-violent psychopath.

    Apparently, this optimism, or what I would just call hopium, is based on Russia saying it will cut back its assault on Kiev and Zelinsky making noises about negotiation Ukraine's neutrality. The optimism apparently was not doused by reports that Ukraine's negotiators were poisoned with some chemical substance that cause their skin to peel off.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10660555/Roman-Abramovich-suffered-suspected-POISONING-Ukraine-peace-negotiators.html

    Why would anyone believe anything that Putin says.

    WTI crude is trading trading down about $6 to $100.

    Defense and oil stocks are down based on the hopium.

    Chevron Corp. (CVX)
    $160.67 -$5.69 -3.42%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cvx?mod=over_search

    Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)
    $431.44 -13.36 -3.00%


    After reducing Mariupol to rubble, Russia now controls that port city. So is it going to give up that territorial gain and others along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov coasts and pay reparations to Ukraine ($50+B) for the destroyed civilian structures?

    Mariupol is currently uninhabitable by the 450,000 civilians who used to live there, mostly Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens. Russia murdered many of those civilians.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/video/mariupol-residents-lose-their-homes-to-putins-ongoing-attack-on-ukraine/

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mariupol-ukraine-residents-homeless-food-water-electricity/

    https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/05/20/what-is-russia-doing-in-black-sea-pub-84549

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Ukraine's negotiators were poisoned"

      I hadn't seen that yet today. Well, if the rally continues a few days, I'm selling my recent buys. (FB, IWM, CALF)

      Biden is negotiating with Iran to end sanctions, give billions, all with Russia.

      I don't understand this admin's methods nor trust the judgement. I'd like to trust it. But I don't. I'm concerned it will be considered solved by letting Putin have Ukraine.

      ---
      I posted yesterday or late day before about ibonds. Guess it didn't go through.

      I was deciding whether to buy now or wait until May's new pricing. $15k ($10 on site and $5 through tax refund.)

      Decided to lean heavily toward waiting - rates aren't going down. Inflation isn't going down.

      Delete
    2. Land: I view Iran's potential acquisition of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them as unstoppable short of a major military conflict that engulfs the Middle East.

      I will withhold any firm judgment on a new nuclear treaty until I know the terms.

      Based on reports that I have read, the draft agreement may only delay a few months Iran's enrichment of uranium sufficient to produce a nuclear bomb. Iran is apparently close now to the 80% enrichment needed to produce its first bomb. There is also some kind of inspection regime set up.

      For that, which is not much, Iran is freed from sanctions which will refill its coffers by billions that can be used to create mischief. It is not clear to me when those sanctions would be lifted and the scope of such removal.

      A sticking point may be Iran's demand to take its Revolutionary Guard be removed from the U.S. terrorism list which is not something the U.S. should agree to do.

      I also believe that the U.S. and Iran are not negotiating directly since Iran will not meet with or talk to the U.S. negotiators.

      It is clear that Iran has joined China and Russia in an authoritarian axis that intends to undermine and threaten western democracies. So that is going to be a problem for decades.

      Delete
  5. The 2 year treasury note yield is within 2 basis points of inverting with the 10 year treasury.

    Earlier today, I bought in a Roth IRA a treasury maturing on 5/31/24 with a 2.446% YTM. That is slightly more than 2 years and is higher than where the 10 year is currently trading which is at 2.4%.

    U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
    2.401 -0.064
    Last Updated: Mar 29, 2022 at 1:44 p.m. EDT

    The 5 year treasury invested with the 10 year yesterday, which last occurred in 2006:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/us-bonds-treasury-yields-invert-flashing-recessionary-warning-sign.html


    +++

    Russia's announcement that it was cutting back on its military assault against Kiev has nothing to do with its good intentions or desire for peace which is ludicrous concept that my brain is unable to process.

    The reasons are twofold, if indeed Russia is reducing its hostile military activities near Kiev.

    (1) Russia's advance on Kiev, and its effort to surround that city, have hit a brick wall, and Ukraine has initiated several successful counterattacks, retaking areas previously obliterated by Russian bombs and missiles.

    I viewed several videos last night showing Russian bomb craters and destroyed homes in that area.

    (2) The Russian army that invaded Ukraine from Belarus has been in the field for almost 6 weeks and need to be reprovisioned with new troops and equipment given the heavy losses suffered which Putin will never acknowledge to the Russian people.

    The most reasonable assumption is that, once that reprovisioning occurs, Russia will continue its destructive activities in those areas.

    Putin's goal is absorption of Ukraine or most of it and he has already gone too far to turn back now IMO unless Ukraine gives Russia all of the territory that Russia most desires (eastern Ukraine, coastal areas near the Black Sea and Sea of Azov plus a recognition that Crimea belong to Russia with Ukraine having no claim even though it is still part of Ukraine under international law which means nothing to Putin)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Doesn't inversion only count if it lasts through close?

      I've been trying to remember what I noticed when I back tested inversions.

      1) Does every inversion get followed by a crash? I can't remember. An important data point! I'm tempted to say I think so, since otherwise I would have dismissed the indicator.

      2) This is always waved away as not a timing tool. Too long from inversions and too unpredictable. This back test I remember. It's nearly always within a year for the 2mo 10 year. There can be significant climb after and before the drop. Every commentary throws in "years" but that wasn't want I spotted... for inversions that lasted into close and with 2/10. The 3/10 was nearly always used, but less useful.

      It's a time not to get greedy and to watch other economic factors closely. Also be nimble. I'll start my cross training tire hopping exercises soon.

      It's much harder now to predict how much is enough to last a retirement. So many factors are up in the air. In 2013 I thought I needed 1.5m to be safe even if SS collapsed. With 2 years of 7% inflation that'd already been 1.7-8m. I've seen so many food & household items up 20-25%.

      Delete
    2. Yep that's Putin's goals. Have experts ever known an abuser to stop without facing real consequences?

      Delete
    3. Land: There was a brief inversion of the 2-10 year treasury yields last Tuesday. That does not mean anything IMO. It does point to the 2 year treasury note to being the highest yielding treasury that has the lowest interest rate risk attached to it. I have been buying treasuries in that maturity area.

      For an inversion to have some future forecasting meaning, the inversion will need to last for weeks and, even then, the recession may take 12 to 24 months to develop based on historical patterns.

      One reason for an inversion now is that the FED is pushing up the FF rate, which directly impacts the 2 year note far more than the 10 year, and investors are holding the 10 year yield near 2.5%-in part-due to a flight to safety.

      When the inversion lasts long enough, the Bond Ghouls are saying that the FED will have to push short term rates back down and the 10 year yield consequently looks better as a lock in rate.

      Inversion may also cause banks to tighten lending standards since the NIM is being compressed too much, as rates paid to depositors go up at a rapid rate due to the FF increases by the FED. That can blow back into less economic growth and contribute to the onset of a recession.

      The FED is increasing the FF rate due to problematic inflation that is in part caused by high energy prices which sap consumer purchasing power and that can be a contributory cause as well.

      It takes awhile for those forces to negatively impact the economy, so U.S. GDP growth is likely to continue at least for a few more quarters.

      ++

      I see the Russian invasion of Ukraine as creating one of the long term intractable problems. That will certainly be the case for Ukraine and Russia with some blowback to the U.S., primarily through commodity inflation. The risk of a wider war exists as well.

      So is Putin going to give back Mariupol to Ukraine after leveling the city into ruins. Is Putin going to withdraw from the conquered areas along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov coasts. Is he going to stop trying to annex eastern Ukraine? The answer is no and Ukraine is not going to cede that territory in "peace" talks.

      Putin is now bringing in mercenaries from Syria and elsewhere given the poor performance of his military.

      https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/world/middleeast/syrian-mercenaries-ukraine-russia.html

      At least Putin has finally made it clear that business as usual with Russia is no longer an alternative for western democracies as a national security matter.

      Delete
  6. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/03/ajxa-amcr-bmy-cc-cve-enbprpca-flsw-fraf.html

    ReplyDelete