Friday, March 15, 2024

AIO, CGBD, CIOPRA, EMR, HPPPRC, IDV, OLP, PLTK, QYLD, SAMG

Economy

Annual CPI: 3.4%

Annual Core CPI: 3.8%

Month-To-Month CPI and Core CPI: .4%

Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M02 Results

Annual Owners Equivalent Rent: +6% weighted at 26.766% in CPI (homeowners do not pay rent to themselves)

Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category - 2024 M02 Results

IMO, this report is not consistent with a belief that the FED will cut the FF rate at the June 2024 meeting. CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group

Sticky Inflation Is Back. Here’s How to Protect Your Portfolio. | Morningstar

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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post

Treasury Bill Purchased At Auction: $15,000 in principal amout

Corporate Bonds: $8,000 in principal amount 

Outflow Common Stocks: -$442.85

(consisting of $508.55 in proceeds minus $65.7 in a purchase)

Outflow Stock Funds: -$1,275.81

Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds:  -$1,784.36 

Outflow Equity Reit Preferred Stocks: -$1,567.09

Realized Gain Preferred Stocks: +$231.19

2024 Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: - $24,376.49

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Trump and His Party

RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

Trump will not give a penny to Ukraine - Hungary PM Orban Trump has already implemented his policy that rewards Russia's aggression in Ukraine by preventing congressional approval of additional Ukrainian aid. 

My video on YT: Trump on Orban - YouTube

Jimmy Kimmel responds in real time to Donald Trump’s insults at the Oscars - YouTube

Trump is continuing to tell us that he is an autocrat - YouTube Trump's former Chief of Staff John Kelly said that Trump praised Hitler. 

Trump, on eve of fundraiser with Anheuser-Busch lobbyist, defends company - POLITICOTrump defends Bud Light ahead of lobbyist-hosted fundraiser 

An Anheuser Busch lobbyist held a fundraiser for Trump. Trump then changed his tune on the boycott of Bud Light that he had led in response. Maybe some Democrats will boycott all Anheuser products in response to AB helping Trump win the Presidency. 

Trump's TikTok ban reversal comes after meeting megadonor who has stake in TikTok - ABC News

State of the Union Cold Open - SNL - YouTube

'Disproven' book from data expert hired by Trump to find voter fraud - YouTube

Trump former advisers sound the alarm that he praises despots in private and on the campaign trail 

Exclusive: ‘Trump Employee 5,’ who unknowingly helped move classified documents, speaks out'Gold for prosecutors': Honig weighs in on 'Trump Employee 5' - YouTube  

Trump claimed last Monday that Facebook as "an enemy of the people along with the media". Trump says he considers Facebook ‘an enemy of the people’ -The Hill Trump frequently uses phrases that gained prominence in Nazi Germany and that is just one of them. History of Trump's Phrase an 'Enemy of the People'

I discussed Trump's accusation in a YT video: Trump Calls Facebook "An Enemy of the People" - YouTube

Trump suggests he’s open to cuts to Medicare and Social Security after attacking primary rivals over the issue 

FBI informant Alexander Smirnov accused of smearing Bidens had past credibility issues - The Washington Post This article provides details on Smirnov's checkered financial history that includes being a defendant in fraud suits. The House republicans wanted to rely on information supplied by Russian intelligence agents through Smirnov to impeach Biden.  Smirnov was born in Ukraine. His first language was Russian. 

Ex-FBI informant accused of lying about Bidens was called a "fraudster" in a prior case - CBS News

Questions Arise About Katie Britt’s State of the Union Response - The New York Times It turns out that Britt deliberately misled the public in claiming that the 12 year victim of multiple rapes was due to Biden's immigration policies. After telling that victims story, Britt continued with this statement: 

“we wouldn’t be OK with this happening in a third-world country ” and then added that “this is the United States of America, and it is past time, in my opinion, that we start acting like it.”

As widely reported, the sex trafficking victim is Karla Jacinto. She was kidnapped in Mexico City and was held in captivity from 2004 to 2008 when George Bush was President. All of the rapes occurred in Mexico. She has never been trafficked in the U.S.  Her abduction had nothing to do with U.S. immigration policies. She was not kidnapped by a drug cartel as claimed by Britt but by a pimp whose family "entrapped vulnerable girls to force them into prostitution." Sex trafficking victim says Sen. Katie Britt telling her story during SOTU rebuttal is ‘not fair’ She told CNN that politicians who told her story lacked empathy. Woman who appears to be at center of Katie Britt's SOTU anecdote has message for the Alabama senator - YouTube 

Notwithstanding the facts, Britt's spokesperson claimed that the story that Britt told was 100% accurate. 

Appearing later on Fox "news", Britt said she did not mean to imply that the sex trafficking occurred in the U.S. when Biden was President.  She clearly made that implication in an effort to inflame voters against Biden using a false narrative. 

Britt then repeated in her Fox "news" interview some claims that had already been fact checked as being false, misleading or lacking in context. PolitiFact | Fact-checking Katie Britt's immigration claims in Republican 2024 State of the Union response

Jon Stewart Calls BS on Trump & the GOP's Performative Patriotism | The Daily Show - YouTube

GOP nominee to run North Carolina public schools, Michele Morrow, called for violence against Democrats, including executing Obama and Biden'Pay-per-view in front of firing squad': GOP candidate called for Obama's public execution - Raw Story 

I published a YT video discussing Morrow: I am predicting that Biden will win North Carolina due to the republican down ballot candidates - YouTube

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Putin and His Mafia State

Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war

Police arrest Russian peace protester within seconds of starting interview - YouTube Her crime in Russia was that she wanted peace. 

Putin warns West that Russia is ready for nuclear war - YouTube Threatening to kill everyone on the planet is the new normal for Putin. 

Massive fires engulf Moscow and St Petersburg industrial sites amid Ukrainian attacks on Russia - YouTube

Russian fuel depots burn after Ukrainian drone attacks - YouTube

Ukrainian drones blow up one of Russia’s biggest oil refineries at Ryazan in brazen drone attack - YouTubeUkrainian drone strike hits Russian oil refinery - YouTubeRussian oil refineries attacked in major Ukraine drone strike - YouTube Russia has learned that stationary objects like oil refineries are fat targets that are easily destroyed or damaged by relatively inexpensive drone attacks. The drones are hitting the distillation towers, the critical structure in a refinery that is also difficult to replace. 

The Ukrainian war has proven the success of asymmetric warfare where relatively low cost weapons can destroy high cost ones including 15 Russian naval vessels over the past 6 months. Russia Fires Top Naval Commander Nikolai Yevmenov After Ukrainian Strikes - The New York Times

Huge Ukraine drone & missile blitz batters Russia as IL-76 jet goes down in flames: The Frontline - YouTubeRussian military plane crashes on takeoff - YouTube

Russian pro-Ukraine fighters launch cross-border attacks into Russia | DW News - YouTube

US prepared ‘rigorously’ for potential Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine in late 2022, officials say U.S. had actionable intelligence that Putin was considering using nuclear weapons. 

China has reportedly stated its opposition to Russia's use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, and maybe that will be enough to restrain Putin. China’s Xi warns Putin not to use nuclear arms in Ukraine-POLITICOChina Issues Warning on 'Risks' of Nuclear War (3/1/24). 

Pope sparks anger after saying Ukraine should have the ‘courage of the white flag’ and negotiate That strikes me as eerily similar to the Vatican's approach to Hitler. 

Putin Is Full of 'Crazy Ideas,' Says Latvia's Prime Minister - YouTube

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1. Small Buy Buys

A. Added to PLTK - Bought 10 at $6.57

Quote:  Playtika Holding Corp. (PLTK)

PLTK "is a mobile gaming entertainment and technology market leader with a portfolio of multiple game titles. Founded in 2010, Playtika was among the first to offer free-to-play social games on social networks and, shortly after, on mobile platforms. Headquartered in Herzliya, Israel."

Cost $65.7

PLTK SEC Filings

2023 SEC Filed Annual Report 

2021-2023 Financial Metrics

PLTK Key Metrics Page at Reuters

Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy. 

Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 4.A. Started PLTK - Bought 10 at $8.6 (12/30/23 Post) 

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 3.D. Added to PLTK - Bought 5 at $8 (1/6/24 Post) 

Average cost per share: $7.67 (25 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.10 per share. This company recently decided to implement a dividend. 

Yield at Average Cost per share: 5.215%

Next Ex Dividend: 3/21/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

There was a negative reaction to this report. 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.10, down from $.24 in the 2022 4th quarter 

Cash and Cash Equivalents: $1.0297B

Revenues: $637.9M, up from $631.2M 

Free Cash Flow for 2023 = $4364M, up from $383.7M in 2022.  

4th Quarter Operational Metrics: 

2. Small Ball Sells

A. Eliminated IDV - Sold 20 at $28.04 - Vanguard Taxable Account

Quote: iShares International Select Dividend ETF Overview

Proceeds: $560.86

Profit Snapshot: $63.64

Last DiscussedItem # 6.C. Added 5 IDV at $22.52 (10/18/22 Post) 

Sponsor's Website: iShares International Select Dividend ETF | IDV

Expense Ratio: .51%

Top 10 Holdings


I do not have a position in any of those stocks. I do have a small ball position in BNS which is currently weighted at #11. 

Dividends: Paid Quarterly at a variable rate.  

2023 Dividend Payments: $1.78

Yield at $28.04 using $1.78: 6.35%

Last Ex Dividend:  12/20/23

Two Largest Gains:

2018 IDV 51+ Shares +$242.33

2019 IDV 31+ Shares +$83.16


Goal: Total annual return of 2%+ over the dividend payments. Classified as a bond substitute which defines the goal only. 

Consider to repurchase price range: <$25. 

B. Eliminated SAMG - Sold 10 at $16.65

I had a strong negative reaction to the 4th quarter report.  

Quote: Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. Cl A

Proceeds: $166.5

SAMG SEC Filings

SEC Filed Annual Report for the Q/E 12/31/23 

SAMG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Profit Snapshot: +$10

Last DiscussedItem # 1.G. Started SAMG - Bought 10 at $15.65 (12/2/23 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share

SAMG Stock Dividend History & Date

Last Ex Dividend: 3/7/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23.

GAAP Diluted E.P.S.  ($.04), down from $.22 in the 2022 4th quarter

Non-GAAP Diluted E.P.S. $.07, down from $.15

Consensus at $.36

C. Pared CGBD - Sold 7+ at $16.41


Quote: 
TCG BDC Inc. - Externally Managed BDC

Proceeds: $120.32

Website: Homepage | Carlyle Secured Lending

CGBD SEC Filings

SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 24 and ends at page 53; summary of investments starts at page 88)

Company Evaluation of Credit Risks

Pages 63-64

Company Estimates on Net Investment Income from Interest Rate Changes

Assuming no material change in nonperforming loans, a BDC that has a preponderance of floating rate loans will increase net investment income when short term interest rates rise. On the flip side, net investment income will decline when short term interest rates fall. Floating rate loans are priced at spreads to short term rates like the 30 day or 3 month SOFR.   

Profit Snapshot: $37.81

Last DiscussedItem # 3.H. Eliminated CGBD in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $15.1 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.6); Item # 2.E. Pared CBGD in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 25+ at $14.46 (3/24/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.09) 

New Average Cost per share this account: $7.39 (33 shares) 

Snapshot Intraday on 3/11/24 after pare

DividendQuarterly at $.40 per share (regular only referred to by the company as the "base dividend"), last raised from $.37 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.

Supplemental dividends have frequently been paid in the past. The total supplemental dividends paid in 2023 and 2022 were $.28 and $.30 per share respectively. 

Dividend History | Carlyle Secured Lending

A reason why a BDC will pay supplemental dividends is that net investment income is variable and directly tied to interest rate movements.

Yield at New AC 21.65% (regular dividend only) 

If I assumed hypothetically that the annual average supplemental dividend was $.28 per share, and the amount has varied in the past, the yield at my AC would be 25.44% using the based quarterly dividend of $.40 which also may change. 

Next Ex Dividend: 3/27/24 ($.40 +$.08 supplemental per share)

Net Asset Value per share history

12/31/23:  $16.99 

12/31/22:  $16.91

9/30/22 :  $17.16

12/31/21:  $16.91

12/31/20: $15.39

12/31/19:  $16.56 

12/31/18:  $18.12  

6/30/17:   $18.01

The Initial Public Offering was in June 2017. The public offering price was $18.75. The external advisor paid 50% of the $.56 per share underwriters' discount. Prospectus 

CGBD's offering expenses were then estimated at $1.8M or approximately $.20 per share. 

After those net expense items, the net proceeds to the BDC were about $18.27 per share. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Quarterly Presentation 

Net Investment Income per share: $.56

2023 NII per share: $2.1

Weighted Average Yield at Cost: 12.8%, up from 11.8% in the 2022 4th quarter. 

Floating Rate: 99%

Total Investments at Fair Value: $1.8418+B (p. 83, 10-K)

Total Assets: $1.942+B

Total Debt: $980.1+M

4 Loans on nonaccrual at fair value: +$38.061M (pages 71, 120 10-K) 

I have a duplicateCBGD position in my Schwab account where I own 70+ shares with an average cost per share at $12.35.   

D. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Positions in QYLD - Sold 30 at $17.97


Quote: Global X NASDAQ-100 Covered Call ETF Overview - Buy/Write ETF

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation

Buys the Nasdaq 100 Index and writes corresponding call options. 

Proceeds: $539.11

Sponsor's Website: Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF

Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)-Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars) 

Profit Snapshot: $62.03

Last DiscussedItem #2.D. Bought 5 QYLD at $17.01 - Fidelity Account (12/9/2023 Post) 

Dividends: Paid Monthly at a variable rate. 

Next Ex dividend: 3/18/24 

E. Pared OLP  - Sold 5 at $22.33

Quote:  One Liberty Properties Inc.  (OLP) - Internally Managed REIT 

Proceeds: $111.65

Last DiscussedItem # 1.A. Added to OLP - Bought 5 at $18.8; 5 at $17.6 (10/7/23 Post) 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

2023 SEC Filed Annual Report 

As of 12/31/23, OLP owned "108 properties and participate in joint ventures that own two properties. These 110 properties are located in 31 states and have an aggregate of approximately 10.9 million square feet"  The occupancy rate was then at 98.8%. The weighted average remaining term of OLP's mortgage debt was 5.9 years and the weighted average interest rate thereon was 4.31%.

Property Classifications: "Most" of the leases are net leases. 

Profit Snapshot: +$2.4

Average cost per share before pare: $19.89 (45+ shares)

Average cost per share after pare: $19.65 (40+ shares)

Remaining Shares after pare/Snapshot Intraday on 3/11/24

I sold 5 of the 10 share lot bought at $21.85 on 4/24/23. There was no ROC adjustment to the tax cost basis in 2023. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.45 per share ($1.8 annually)

One Liberty Properties, Inc. (OLP) Stock Dividend History & Date

Yield at $19.65 Average Cost: 9.16%

Next Ex Dividend Date:  3/26/24 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23) SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.71 includes net profit from real estate sales 

FFO per share: $.45

AFFO per share = $.50 

GAAP to AFFO Reconciliation: 

Adjustments on a per share basis: 

The primary adjustments to GAAP Net income in the FFO calculation is to add back the non-cash depreciation expense and to deduct the total gain from real estate sales. 

The primary adjustments in the FFO to AFFO calculation are to deduct non-cash revenue created by the straight line accounting convention and to add back various amortization non-cash expenses. 

F. Pared AIO - Sold 8+ at $19.66:

Quote: Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Overview - a Leveraged Balanced CEF

I sold the highest cost lots including some shares purchased with dividends. 

Proceeds: $175.84

Sponsor's website: Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund

AIO Portfolio | Morningstar

AIO SEC Filings

Virtus Artificial Intelligence &amp; Technology Opportunities Fund (Annual report for the F/Y ending 1/31/24; schedule of investments starts at page 19; borrowing information at page 91 

Profit Snapshot: +$22.87 (3/13/24 sale only)

Last DiscussedItem #2.F. Pared AIO - Sold 15 at $19.7 (2/15/24 Post) 

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 2.C. Added to AIO - Bought 5 at $15.85; 5 at $15.63; 5 at $15.15 (10/28/23 Post)

Average cost per share before pare: $15.62

Average cost per share after pare: $15.3 (54+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday 3/13/24 after pare

Dividend: Monthly at $.15 per share ($1.8 annually)

Recent Heavy ROC support. 

Yield at New AC = 11.76%

Last Ex dividend: 3/8/24

Data Date of 3/13/24 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $21.56

Closing Market Price: $19.63

Discount: -8.95%

Average 3 year discount: -9.9%

Sourced:  AIO-CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" tab) 

G. Sold 1 EMR at $110.08

Quote: Emerson Electric Co.  (EMR)

Proceeds: $110.08

Emerson Investor Information

EMR SEC Filings

EMR SEC Filings

EMR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Profit Snapshot: +$25.71

Dividend: Quarterly at $.525 per share ($2.1 annually), last raised from $.52 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment. The annual dividend rate was at $1.72 per share in 2014. 

Dividend History | Emerson US

Yield at $110.08: 1.91%

While EMR is a dividend aristocrat, dividend growth has slowed to a crawl and does not provide an acceptable yield to me at the current stock price. 

Last Ex Dividend: 2/15/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23): The stock reacted positively to the 2024 first fiscal quarter report. 

SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation: 

I tend to discount add backs for restructuring and acquisition/divestiture costs. Those two items resulted in a 29 cent per share add back. Those are cash expenses; are generally recurring over time and are related to normal business operations. t 

I am willing to adjust GAAP E.P.S. by adding back the non-cash amortization "expense".    

2024 Guidance:  Adjusted E.P.S. $5.30 to $5.45; GAAP E.P.S. $2.8 to $2.95

The current EMR stock price suggests that investors accept the non-GAAP E.P.S. guidance. Using the midpoint of the GAAP E.P.S. guidance and a $111 stock price, the forward P/E is 38.61. Using the midpoint for non-GAAP E.P.S. the P/E is still high at 20.65.

For the F/Y ending 9/30/23, EMR reported GAAP E.P.S. of $3.72 and non-GAAP E.P.S. of $4.44. 


SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the 4th F/Q Ending 9/30/23  

The F/Y 2024 guidance does show good growth in non-GAAP E.P.S. compared to the F/Y 2023, but GAAP E.P.S. is expected to decline.  

Largest Annual EMR GAIN to Date: $600.68

3. Corporate Bond Purchases

All of the bonds discussed below were issued by BDCs and have  investment credit ratings. The credit ratings are 1 notch above junk which is normal for senior unsecured debt issued by BDCs. 

There are several risks inherent in BDC issued bonds: (1) almost all of the net income is paid out in common share dividends; (2) loans made by BDCs are risky with many loan defaults involving even first lien loans resulting in a total loss or close to it without recessionary conditions; and (3) the BDCs have relatively high debt levels and refinancing maturing debt has become more costly. 

I generally keep my BDC debt maturities short term, preferring to go no further out than 15 months. 

A. Bought 2 Sixth Street Specialty Lending 3.875% SU Maturing on 11/1/24 at a Total Cost of 98.835 (IB Account):

Issuer: Sixth Street Specialty Lending Inc. (TSLX) - Externally Managed BDC

TSLX SEC Filings

2023 SEC Filed Annual Report 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23 

I have a small ball position in the common stock: 

TSLX Buy DiscussionsItem #  1.O. Added to TSLX - Bought 1 at $17.58 (5/20/23 Post);  Item # 1.G. Added to TSLX - Bought 1 at $17.87 (4/29/23 Post)Item # 2.D. Added to TSLX - Bought 5 at $18.3; 5 at $18.1 (12/13/22 Post)Item # 5.G. Initiated TSLX - Bought 5 at $18.8; 5 at $18.6 (12/6/22 Post)

Last TSLX Stock Offering (3/24): 4M shares + the standard greenshoe priced to the underwriters at $20.52. 8-K

Finra Page: Bond Page-FINRA.org (formerly known as TPG Specialty Lending)

Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB-  (typical for a BDC that pays out almost all of its net investment income to common shareholders which makes the bonds more risky)  

YTM at Total Cost: 5.725%

The YTM was 5.886% before the $1 per bond commission. The impact of the commission on the YTM will negatively impact the YTM more as the time to maturity shortens.  

Current Yield at TC = 3.92%

B. Bought 2 Ares Capital 4.25% SU Maturing on 3/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.544

Issuer: Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC) - Externally Managed BDC

I own the common shares in two taxable accounts and in RI accounts. 

Last DiscussedItem # 3.B. Pared ARCC - Sold 2 at $20.36 - Schwab Account (1/20/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.04). For shares owned in this account, this pare reduced my average cost per share to $12.52.  

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 4.C. Added 5 ARCC at $14.3; 5 at $14; 5 at $13.67; 5 at $12.5; 5 at $12.4; 5 at $12; 5 at $11.74; 5 at $10.44; 5 at $9.4 (4/4/20 Post) I highlighted two buy prices to show the rapid price decline in response to the pandemic and the onset of a stock bear market. 

ARCC Realized Gains to Date: $883.5

ARCC SEC Filings 

ARCC SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23 

SEC ARCC 2023 Annual Report (risk factor discussion starts at page 24 and ends at page 53; summary of investments starts at page F-7)

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: BBB- 

YTM at Total Cost: 5.814%

Current Yield at Total Cost = 4.31%

I now own 6 bonds.  

On the day of purchase, the 1 year treasury bill closed at a 4.92% yield. 2024 Treasury Yield Curve -U.S. Department of the Treasury

I added to my position in this bond since I have 4 ARCC 4.2% SU bonds that will mature on 6/20/24. Bond Page | FINRA.org

C. Bought 2 Blue Owl Capital 4% SU Maturing on 3/30/25 at a Total Cost of 98.039

Issuer  Blue Owl Capital Corp.  (OBDC)  - Externally Managed BDC (formerly known as Owl Rock that was traded using the ORCC symbol)

I have a small ball position in the common stock:  40 shares with an average cost per share of $12.11. 

Last OBDC Buy Discussion:  Item # 3.F. Added to ORCC in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $11.14 (10/4/22 Post)

Last OBDC Sell DiscussionsItem # 3.A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in OBDC (Vanguard Taxable Account) - Sold 30 at $13.78 (9/23/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $50); Item # 1.A. Eliminated  ORCC in Schwab Taxable Account- Sold 26+ at $13.6 (3/6/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $40.68)

OBDC SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 12/31/23 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB- 

YTM at Total Cost: 5.962%

Current Yield at TC = 4.08%

I now own 6 bonds. 

D. Bought 2 Oaktree Specialty Lending 3.5% SU Maturing on 2/25/25 at a Total Cost of 97.742

Issuer: Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp. (OCSL) - Externally Managed BDC

I have a small ball position in the common stock. 

Last OCSL Discussion: Item # 3.H. Added to OCSL - Bought 2 at $18.08 (5/13/23 Post) 

OCSL SEC Filings

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23 

10-Q for the Q/E 12/31/23 (Summary of investments starts at page 6; debt discussed starting at page 57; the 2025 SU is not bond to mature)

FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Rating: Baa3

YTM at Total Cost: 5.992%

Current Yield at TC = 3.581%

I now own 4 bonds. 

4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction

A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 3/11/24 Auction

182 Day Bill 

Mature on 9/12/24  

Interest: $128.92

Investment Rate: 5.308%

B. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at 3/13/24

119 Day Bill 

Matures on 7/16/24

Interest: $86.11

Investment Rate: 5.375%


C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 3/14/24 Auction

56 Day Bill

Matures on 5/14/24

Interest: $41.03

Investment Rate: 5.393

5. Equity Preferred Stocks

Investment Category: Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

A. Eliminated Duplicate Positions in HPP.PRC - Sold 25 at $14.27 and 40+ at $14.22 (Vanguard and Schwab Accounts)


Quote: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. 4.750% Cumulative Preferred Series C  

Proceeds: $903.59

Issuer: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc.  (HPP)

HPP SEC Filings

Profit Snapshots: +$155.87


Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 3.A. Added 25 HPPPRC at $12.5 (12/16/23 Post)Item # 5.A. Added 5 HPPPRC at $11.2; 5 at $11.73 (11/18/23 Post) 

Average Cost per share Remaining Position: $12.83 (140 shares in my Fidelity Account) The current yield at that AC is 9.256%. HPP has not yet deferred payment of the preferred dividend.  HPP did eliminated the common share dividend for several quarters but recently announced a 5 cent per common share dividend. Hudson Pacific Properties Reinstates Common Stock Quarterly Dividend, Declares Preferred Stock Dividend 

Credit Ratings:  Deep into junk at Ba3/B

I am not comfortable with the credit risk but the yield at my average cost per share provides some justification for owning some shares. I have a hair trigger on the remaining position. 

As previously discussed, recent operating performance was negatively impacted by the write and actor strikes since HPP owns studio production facilities.Hudson Pacific Says Hollywood Strikes Have Cost It $100M-Commercial Observer Redefining Studios in Los Angeles The company also has exposure to west coast office properties. Office  Properties 

The long term problems are (1) the office properties located in the San Francisco and Los Angeles metropolitan areas where property valuations have generally taken major hits, (2) substantial space leased to technology companies that are reducing their needs for office space through work-from-home and reductions in their workforces; (3) HPP has suspended paying a common dividend; (4) the variable rate debt based on current short term interest rates, and (5) the significant amount of fixed coupon debt that will likely have to be refinanced at higher rates in the coming years.  

2023 SEC Filed Annual Report Debt is discussed starting at page F-37. 

SEC Filed Financial Report for the Q/E 12/31/23 

HPPPRC Prospectus

Par Value: $25 (offered at $25 in November 2021)

Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock, senior only to common stock. 

Maturity: Potentially perpetual unless called by issuer. 

Optional Call Date: Anytime on or after 11/16/26

Stopper Clause: Standard. The Stopper Clause prevents the issuer from deferring payment of a cumulative preferred dividend while paying a cash common stock dividend or using cash to buy back common stock. The Clause enforces the preferred stock's superior claim to cash compared only to the common stock.   

Last Ex Dividend: Today 3/15/24 (owned 140 as of) 

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 5.B. Pared HPPPRC Sold 10 at $14.02 (1/6/24 Post) 

B. Eliminated CIOPRA - Sold 35 at $18.1

Quote: CIO-PA

This is another high credit risk REIT equity preferred stock. My concern is the debt refinancing risk and the reliance on floating rate debt, both within the context of CIO being an Office REIT.   

When I looked at the following snapshot, I decided to sell. 


 
10-K at page 58. 

Proceeds: +$663.5

Profit Snapshot: $75.32

Issuer: City Office REIT Inc. (CIO) - An Office REIT

CIO SEC Filings

SEC Filed Financial Report for the Q/E 12/31/23 

Last DiscussedItem # 5.A. Eliminated CIOPRA in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $17.2 (6/24/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $42.5) 

Prospectus Supplement

Par Value: $25

Coupon: 6.625% 

Dividends: Paid Quarterly, cumulative and non-qualified (pass through entity) 

Maturity: Potentially perpetual. Issuer option to redeem at par value + accrued and unpaid dividends started on 10/4/21.  

Placement in the capital structure: Equity preferred stock, senior only to common stock.  

Stopper Clause: Standard

Prior Sell DiscussionsItem # 4.A. Pared CIOPRA in Fidelity Account - Sold 10 at $24.47 (8/22/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $55.99); Item # 6.A. Pared CIOPRA-Sold 10 at $21.17 and 10 at $22.25-Highest Cost Lots (6/6/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.17); Item # 1.A. Eliminated  CIOPRA-Sold 50 at $24.77-Used Commission Free Trade (4/24/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $155.22); Item # 4.A. Sold 50 CIOPRA at $24.14-Used Commission Free Trade (3/17/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.86); Item 3.A. Sold 50 CIOPRA at $25.21 (1/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $146.97). 

CIOPRA Realized Gains to Date: $521.5 

6. Cash flow into Fidelity Taxable Account 3/15/24

Redemption Proceeds: $10,000 

Interest Payments: $367.17

I did not total up the dividends. 






The Goldman Sachs and Natural Rural bonds are 1 bond lots that pay interest monthly. 

Of the $10,000 in redemption proceeds received in my Fidelity Account, I have so far bought 3 corporate bonds that I will discuss in my next post. Of those bonds, the highest quality SU was issued by Piedmont Natural Gas, a wholly owned subsidiary of Duke Energy (DUK). Bond Page | FINRA.org (rated A3/BBB+)

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.  

14 comments:

  1. SG, I wonder if you could comment on the "HOT" CPI ( and PPI); with OWNERS EQ RENT; being a large part of of cpi; even if the Fed only cuts only one to two times this year; even tho there is a Question of the meaningfulness of the OEQ, My question to you is is where u think the inflation rate or more specifically the 5 year treasury bond is a decent conservative buy at 4.3%; I see u r buying the 24 rate in the treasury and in corporates that u understand well; are u buying anything with longer duration? Do your think over the next several years , we are in in a disinflationary period over the next several years barring an exogenous event? thanks

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    Replies
    1. The inflation numbers are influencing my decision to buy primarily short term fixed coupon investments where I pick up more yield.

      Inflation is proving to be sticky at over 4%. The Atlanta Fed has a Sticky CPI calculation that is still over 4% on an annual basis:

      https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice

      Month-to-month numbers CPI and core CPI numbers are moving higher.

      The owners equivalent rent component will gradually decline but that has a considerable lag based on how the BLS calculates the number using rents. I discuss that issue in a prior post.

      There is a significant drop off in yields after 1 year compared to 6 month or less T Bills.

      I am buying more corporate bonds that mature in 2025. It makes some sense for me to buy corporate bonds since I live in Tennessee that does not have a state income tax. A state cannot tax interest by the federal government but will take corporate bond interest.

      I will discuss in my next post buying two corporate bonds that mature in 2026 that mature on 10/1/2026, but buying that far out in maturity is extremely light.

      I do own a number of Tennessee Municipal bonds that have potentially long maturities but some are being called now. I will lose 15 Williamson County GO bonds, rated AAA, on 4/1/24 that mature in 2027. Municipal bonds have to be bought in 5 bond lots.

      I may go out to a 3 years treasury when I have more confidence that the FED will cut rates later this year, but 2 years is probably as far out as I will go. I bought just 1 two year treasury note at the last auction.

      Part of my reluctance to go further out in maturities is my age and just being content with what I earned last year and will earn this year in interest. My interest income soared in 2023, surprising me on how much I actually owe in taxes. I made estimated tax payments in 2023 that exceeded my 2022 tax liability so I do not have to pay a penalty. I downloaded the information from my brokerage accounts yesterday into TurboTax. As I mentioned in an earlier comment, the accrued interest amount has to be manually entered. And, to get the full amount of that deduction from Turbotax, which for some reason spreads part of the taxable interest paid to bond sellers to nontaxable interest, losing about $600 in accrued interest payments, I had to enter a separate out the taxable interest from the other interest paid in an account to get the full amount of the accrued interest payment deduction in Schedule B, which makes no sense to me as to why I had to go that trouble.

      So I would write down the total amount of taxable interest paid to bond sellers and then compare that amount to what Turbotax as a deduction from interest income.

      Delete
    2. While my stock allocation is less than 15%, I do generate a significant amount of dividend income each year. For the most part, dividend yields at my average cost per share exceed what I am can receive in treasury bill purchases.

      Most of the stocks with lower dividend yields have a history of increasing their dividends, and the yields at my average cost are mostly in th 4% to 5%. Those are mostly recent purchases and include a few utility stocks.

      Delete
  2. There is a 1 year treasury bill auction next Tuesday. So far, I have managed to place an order for a 1 bill purchase.

    The 1 year treasury bill is currently trading at a 5.075% yield.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd01y?countrycode=bx

    I would say that yield has just one 25% basis point cut this year.

    One surprise this year may be no interest rates cuts or at most one 25 basis cut in July or September.

    I have picked up my stock buying, though barely is the operative word.

    An example is a 5 share purchase earlier today of Realty Income (O) at $51.55.

    Realty Income Corp. (O)
    $51.84 +$0.18 +0.36%
    Last Updated: Mar 15, 2024 at 11:52 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/o?mod=search_symbol

    Dividends are paid monthly. This REIT will raise its dividends but only at immaterial amounts as previously discussed in prior posts. The last increase from $.2565 to $.2570 was recently announced:

    https://www.realtyincome.com/investors/press-releases/124th-common-stock-monthly-dividend-increase-declared-realty-income

    At a monthly rate of $.257 ($3.084 annually), the dividend yield at $51.55 is about 5.9825%. I also own SU bonds issued by this REIT.

    Last Discussed:
    Item # 2.G. Sold 5 Realty Income (O) at $59
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/01/acco-bk-ebmt-gcow-khc-mfic-o-pflt-phg.html

    So using the risk reduction technique that I call small ball, I just bought back those shares.

    It is not helpful to buy a dividend stock that has a 6% annual dividend yield that goes down 10%. So I try to pick my entry and exit points and to lower my average cost per share by selling the highest cost lots. So I am now up to 30+ shares.

    When I was less super cautious, I did buy 100 shares of Realty Income and sold that lot at $52.37 in 2016 realizing a $1,579.6 profit.

    Item # 1
    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/4707546-update-for-equity-reit-basket-strategy-of-1-21-16

    The shares were bought in 2013:
    Item # 6
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2013/12/rmt-pdt-syy-gstprb-swz-bwg-arccroth-ira.html

    ReplyDelete
  3. I added a section 6 to this post that has snapshots of cash flow received in my Fidelity account today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HI SG can u tell me the difference in guarantees and quality and safety of treasury bonds vs government agency bonds? I see the govt agency bonds have a higher rate. thanks!

      Delete
    2. G: This article provides some useful information:

      https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/us-agency-bonds-what-you-should-know

      Interest payments made by some GSE's, as noted in that article, are subject to state taxation.

      Securities issued by what is called Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) are not back by the full faith and credit of the U.S. and their yield advantages over treasuries has never been tempting enough for me to buy any, particularly with both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had to be put in conservatorship in 2008. Without U.S. government intervention then, both would have defaulted on their debt. Legally, the U.S. is not responsible for the debt but investors view that there is an implicit guarantee (until there isn't)

      https://www.fhfa.gov/Conservatorship/Pages/History-of-Fannie-Mae--Freddie-Conservatorships.aspx

      Delete
  4. I published a video on YT titled "Shifting Interest Income into 2025" where I discuss some observations about short term interest rates in 3 comments that I left there.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYG3X6jhU9Y

    ReplyDelete
  5. The markets thrilled with today's fed lack of action that matches exactly what investors expected.

    But I enjoyed the results.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: I posted a video discussing the Fed's projection materials released today that caused the market rally:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3yqTV-8oSg&t=123s

      Delete
  6. Thanks SG< do u suspect the fed has over promised rate cuts since they are data dependant and will likely decrease their rate cut schedule this year? Are they looking at something different than you are or bowing to political / market pressure? And r u saying this this rate of decrease in FF increases the risk of return inflation? thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. G. In December 2020, the Fed released its projection materials that predicted 2021 PCE and Core inflation at 1.8% rising to 1.9% on both inflation numbers in 2022.

      The actual 2021 PCE and core PCE inflation numbers were 5.8% and 4.9% respectively.

      https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2022

      The actual 2022 PCE and PCE core inflation numbers were 5.3% and 4.6%.

      https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2023

      If I was paying the FED for its predictions, I would ask for my money back.

      The bottom line is that future predictions can be way off even for the FED with all of its resources and economists. I am just an old guy sitting at a desk in Brentwood, TN. making future predictions.

      Of the 10 FED members that stayed with a .75% cut by year end, I suspect that they just did not want to reduce that prediction until they have more inflation data since it would be too upsetting to investors and premature. There could be a revision in the June projection materials if inflation remains sticky.

      There is also a legitimate concern that waiting too long to cut may contribute to an economic contraction.

      And, there is also a legitimate concern that cutting too soon may reignite inflation.

      I am in the camp that current data, which includes recent inflation, jobs, and GDP information, does not justify any rate cut other than possibly a 25 basis point cut in July and more when and if data confirms PCE inflation moving closer to the Fed's goal. Increasing the core PCE number in the last projection materials is not consistent IMO with keeping the forecast for 3 rate cuts this year.

      Delete
  7. Thanks! After following u for years, I conclude that wherever u r sitting , u r an extremely Bright and Knowledgeable GUY!

    ReplyDelete
  8. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/03/egbn-gis-klg-krg-jqc-jri-megi-o-tac-wpc.html

    ReplyDelete