Economy:
September consumer confidence falls the most in three years; 2-year Treasury yield falls after consumer confidence miss (9/24/24)
Goldman: Fed's jumbo rate cut puts the U.S. on track for soft landing
Crude oil prices today: WTI below $68 as Saudi committed to higher output (9/26/24)
China is easing monetary policy. The economy needs fiscal support The general plan includes interest rate cuts by China's central bank who will also reduce the amount of reserves banks must hold as a percentage of their assets, which permits them to lend more. And, I would add to increase their loan losses for improvidently granted ones. China would also reduce mortgage rates by 1/2 point and another measure to reduce the glut of unsold property.
Chinese stocks, which have been in the doldrums for years, rose in response to these stimulus proposals, but the gains are likely to be temporary since they do not address key structural problems, as discussed in this Barron's article: China’s Stimulus May Keep It From Spoiling Global Economy. But It Still Isn’t Enough. - Barron's (subscription publication) The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) had a 3 year annual average total return of -12.04% through the rally on 9/24/24 and a 10 year annual average total return of only +.69%.
Mortgage refinance boom takes hold, as weekly demand surges 20%; Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey | MBA
New home sales declined by 4.7% in August, compared to July, but were 9.8% above the August 2023 estimate. The median sales price of new homes in August was reported by the Census Bureau at $420,600, with the average price at $492,700. New Residential Sales Press Release
My video: Voters are looking at the economy under Trump with deeply rose colored glasses - YouTube
Sweden's central bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% and forecasted 2 more cuts this year.
The Swiss central bank cuts its key interest today by 25 basis points to 1%, which is the third cut in as many meetings.
Australia's annual inflation rate has now fallen to its central bank's target band for the first time since 2021.
Earlier this month, the Russian central bank raised its key rate to 19%.
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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $5,000 in principal amount
Tennessee Municipal Bonds: $10,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $6,000 in principal amount
I quit buying CDs several months ago.
Canadian REIT: +C$357 (converted to US$261 for allocation purposes only)
Outflow U.S. Common Stocks: = -$970.92
(consisting of $1,315.21 in proceeds minus $344.29 in purchases)
Outflow Common Stocks: -$709.92
Inflow Exchange Traded Bonds: +$237.15
Outflow Equity Preferred Stocks: -$452.84
Outflow Junk Bond/Leveraged Loan CEF (KIO): -$1,257.15
2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$35,905.68
I have almost no current exposure to China's stock market. My largest mutual fund position that has exposure to that market is the Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund (MAPTX), and I own only a few shares.
{Last Discussed: Item # 3.G. Added $50 to MAPTX at $18.18 (12/23/23 Post) I was more adventurous when this sector looked more promising, realizing gains of $3,577.91 as discussed in that blog post, with the largest gain being $2,573.82. Item # 4 Eliminated MAPTX in Fidelity Account -Sold 218+ at $28.29 (8/16/17 Post)}
I eliminated my only China centric mutual fund back in 2021 and have not been back since that elimination Item # 1. Eliminated Matthews China Dividend Fund (MDDFX) - Sold 57+ at $20.18 (8/12/21 Post) That post has links to my prior eliminations and snapshots of profits for that fund totalling $1,416.95 discusses.
The Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) mutual fund pays an annual dividend. I turned off the dividend reinvestment option. I prefer receiving the cash rather than increasing my average cost per share which would happen with dividend reinvestment. I did reinvest the last annual dividend. Item # 5.C.
Treasury Yield Curve September 2024:
Note that the Fed's rate cut has a de minimis impact on the 10 to 30 year treasury yields.
10 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 9/25/24: 2.18%
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Trump and His Party:
President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling
Bipartisan national security group endorses Harris over Trump; Endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris for President of the United States — National Security Leaders for America
Why is Trump claiming election fraud? | The Week
Harris’ cash edge funds advertising blitz as Elon Musk cuts big check to House Republicans, new filings show Dana Milbank has a new book discussing the House Republicans. Fools on the Hill: The Hooligans, Saboteurs, Conspiracy Theorists, and Dunces Who Burned Down the House: Milbank, Dana
Elon Musk Has Turned X Into a Pressure Cooker - The Atlantic
Scientific American makes second-ever endorsement, backs Kamala Harris
Senate IVF bill fails again to advance on mostly party line vote - ABC News
Jan. 6 rioter who kicked open Capitol door regrets police interactions | 60 Minutes - YouTube Trump calls the rioters patriots and hostages when they are committing crimes for him.
Trump's Potential AG Promises "Reign of Terror" - POLITICO
As President, Trump Demanded Investigations of Foes. He Often Got Them. - The New York Times (9/21/24)
Georgia election board requires ballots be hand-counted despite warning from key GOP state officials And the Trumpster dominated board will require the hand count to be complete on election day or the day after even after being told that was impossible except for the smallest counties in Georgia. This election board is one way the republicans are implementing their anti-democracy policies.
Other ongoing GOP anti-democracy efforts are discussed in these articles:
Republicans are suing more election officials over voter rolls in several battleground states | CNN Politics; GOP asks court to change voting rules in one state, with impact for all - The Washington Post
As threats grow, funds for election security see a squeeze Trumpster threats against election workers trying to do their jobs have hit epidemic proportions. Many have quit in response to those threats.
More than 20 election offices have been targeted with suspicious packages this week | CNN Politics (9/20/24)
Noncitizen Voting: The Missing Millions | Brennan Center for Justice There are almost no documented cases of non-citizens voting, but republicans want to purge the voter rolls in battleground states using a claim that millions are voting as an excuse. If successful, their true goal of preventing citizens from voting who are registered in areas that predominantly vote for Democrats, preferably doing so just prior to the November election.
Trump and Vance are incapable of being straight with the voters. They are the two most shameless American politicians in our history. Fact check: Springfield had more murders under Trump than under Biden-Harris | CNN Politics
New book exposes lies behind the myth of Trump's business acumen - YouTube There can be no doubt that Trump was losing hundreds of millions when he created the myth of being a genius businessman. Lucky Loser: How Donald Trump Squandered His Father's Fortune and Created the Illusion of Success-Kindle Store reviewed at Donald Trump’s finances are a mess. ‘Lucky Loser’ has the receipts - The Washington Post
(See generally Wealth of Donald Trump - Wikipedia; Trump’s Taxes Show Chronic Losses and Years of Income Tax Avoidance - The New York Times; 11 Takeaways From The Times’s Investigation Into Trump’s Wealth - The New York Times; Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father - The New York Times;18 Revelations From a Trove of Trump Tax Records - The New York Times; Trump’s false claim he built his empire with a ‘small loan’ from his father - The Washington Post)
{My Videos on this subject matter: Trump Hucksterism and Shameless creation of a false image as a genius businessman - YouTube; Trump is a Grifter - YouTube}
Ken Burns on the ‘incredibly dangerous’ party that the GOP has ‘morphed’ into - YouTube
REACTION: Disgusting Racist Chant At Trump's PA Rally | Bulwark Takes - YouTube
Clay Higgins (R-LA) published the following rant on X yesterday referring to Haitian immigrants who are legally in the U.S.: "Lol. These Haitians are wild. Eating pets, vudu, nastiest country in the western hemisphere, cults, slapstick, gangsters. ... All these thugs better get their mind right and their ass out of our country before January 20th" Higgins is very popular among the republican base. (My Video on Higgins Claims about January 6th: Clay Higgins (R-LA) and the Republican Effort to Detract Blame from Trump for January 6th - YouTube)
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Trump and Mark Robinson:
Mark Robinson is the republican candidate for North Carolina's governor. He is currently the republican Lieutenant Governor. Trump has endorsed Robinson, calling him "Martin Luther King on steroids". Watch Trump’s past comments about GOP’s Mark Robinson - YouTube
My Video (9/19/24): GOP Candidate for North Carolina's Governor Mark Robinson - More Disturbing Comments - YouTube
Several months ago, I published videos discussing many of the disturbing comments made by Mark Robinson that were known prior to him winning the republican nomination for governor. (My Videos: Mark Robinson Republican Candidate for the N C Governor and Likely Primary Winner - YouTube; Republican down ballot candidates in North Carolina: Michelle Morrow and Mark Robinson - YouTube)
Mark Robinson, NC GOP nominee for governor, called himself a ‘black NAZI!,’ supported slavery in past comments made on porn forum | CNN Politics (9/19/24) CNN provided evidence linking Robinson to the social media posts discussed in this article. Robinson denied making the comments.
Over 2 million republicans will vote for Robinson in the upcoming North Carolina election.
Some of the Robinson posts attributed to him by CNN include the following:
"Slavery is not bad. Some people need to be slaves. I wish they would bring it (slavery) back. I would certainly buy a few".
"I’d take Hitler over any of the sh*t that’s in Washington right now!"
"I’m a black NAZI!"
I’m not in the KKK. They don’t let blacks join. If I was in the KKK I would have called him Martin Lucifer Koon!"
Those comments are consistent with public comments made by Robinson in the past that were known to North Carolina republican voters before the election. Many of those are summarized here: Mark Robinson (American politician) - Wikipedia
Some of those comments that were known prior to Robinson winning the republican nomination for governor include the following:
"this foolishness about Hitler disarming MILLIONS of Jews and then marching them off to concentration camps is a bunch of hogwash"
He called survivors of a school shooting "media prosti-tots" in a ranting and raving 2018 Facebook post.
He posted that Michelle Obama was a man. Michelle Obama is an anti-American,... - Mark Keith Robinson | Facebook
He posted a meme mocking a Harvey Weinstein accuser.
He posted a ranting and raving criticism of the Black Panther movie that uses a Yiddish slur for Black people. It is at once funny and sad how... - Mark Keith Robinson | Facebook
He embraced the Obama birther conspiracy as did his mentor Donald Trump. Mark Keith Robinson | Facebook
I discussed those comments in videos before Robinson won the GOP's nomination so republicans voted for Robinson notwithstanding knowledge about his history and what can be charitably called his financial difficulties and his total lack of any qualifications for the job.
Robinson paid for his girlfriend's abortion. Later in life, after becoming a republican politician, Robinson said that abortions were "murder" and "genocide". So he is an in your face hypocrite on top of everything else.
Porn site user linked to Mark Robinson also praised Mein Kampf - The Washington Post
North Carolina’s GOP Nominee for Governor Is a Far-Right Fanatic—and He’s Not Alone | The Nation
‘Dumpster fire’: Psaki torches GOP’s handling of Mark Robinson fallout - YouTube
'This is the Republican Party on full blast': GOP 'not ashamed' of backing Mark Robinson - YouTube The state republican party is still backing Robinson after the CNN report accepting his denial about making them. CNN provided detailed evidence linking Robinson to those comments and they are consistent with comments that Robinson has publicly made. There is not any material difference between Robinson's public comment that the holocaust was "hogwash" and referring to himself as a black Nazi.
The North Carolina republicans who were going to vote for Robinson prior to the CNN report will still vote for him and will dismiss the evidence as "Fake News" and part of a liberal smear campaign.
They will view it as sufficient that Robinson denied making the statements and has now hired a lawyer who represented Trump in his attempt to cancel the certified vote in Nevada. That lawyer, Jesse Binnall, somehow avoided being sanctioned when the lawsuit that he filed was dismissed. Mark Robinson hires Donald Trump-associated attorney to investigate CNN claims; Judge dismisses Trump lawsuit over voter fraud in Nevada | NewsNation; NV Supreme Court denies Trump campaign lawsuit seeking overturn of presidential election - The Nevada Independent; Top Trump Lawyer Jesse Binnall Is a Longtime Tax Deadbeat
Trump supporters will will not change their votes for him based on the Robinson disclosures. They have ignored or dismissed far more already about Trump.
There may be some positive benefit for Harris on energizing some to vote for Harris who may have stayed at home but feel compelled now to vote in both the gubernatorial and school superintendent races, and that along with some fed up republican voters may be enough for Harris to win North Carolina.
The republicans in North Carolina nominated Michelle Morrow to be the state's school superintendent. She has advocated killing Obama during a pay per view. She repeats QAnon slogans, home schools her own children and has zero experience in school administration. (My video: Michele Morrow The GOP's Candidate for North Carolina's School Superintendent - YouTube)
All of those facts were known by republicans before they elected Morrow as their nominee for the North Carolina school superintendent position. GOP nominee to run North Carolina public schools called for violence against Democrats, including executing Obama and Biden | CNN Politics (3/15/24) I knew about them as a Tennessee resident prior to the primary election.
E.G.
Morrow now claims that she was just being sarcastic. Trump was being "sarcastic" when he finally admitted a few weeks ago that he did in fact lose the 2020 election.
Both Morrow and Robinson have strong evangelical Christian support as does Trump. The latest poll has the school superintendent race as too close to call. WRAL News Poll: Race for state schools superintendent remains a virtual tie Republicans will vote in droves for Morrow, possibly taking her vote count as high as 2 million.
+++
Putin's Incompetent Dictatorship:
Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Putin once again threatened nuclear war against the U.S. and NATO. Putin issues nuclear warning to the West over strikes on Russia from Ukraine | Reuters
Five Trains Confirmed Destroyed, Plus Missile Stockpile at Toropets and Kranodar Ammo Depots - YouTube A Russian might ask where is the missile defense. Drones move so slowly.
Ukraine's Thermite "Dragon's Breath" Drones Destroy Three Russian Trucks in Luhansk - YouTube; Dragon drone - Wikipedia
21 wounded after Russia strikes apartment buildings in Ukrainian city of Kharkiv-ABC News (9/22/24); Russian airstrike on apartment block in Kharkiv injures 21 people | Euronews Russia routinely targets apartment buildings in Ukraine. Another apartment was in Kharkiv was targeted a week prior. Russian bomb strikes Kharkiv apartment building, one dead, 42 injured, officials say | Reuters (9/15/24)Kharkiv attack: Russia destroys Ukrainian apartment block with guide bombs - YouTube
Satellite Photos Reveal 270ft Crater, Major Damage to Russian Ammo Depots - Newsweek
HIMARS Destroys Russian Convoy Near Donetsk (NINE Trucks!) - YouTube
Kyiv is testing Kremlin's 'red lines' by striking its arms depots | Euronews
As central banks around the world cut their benchmark rates this month, Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate to 19% earlier this month. This was in response to surging inflation in Russia driven higher by a diversion of resources to Putin's war in Ukraine. The annual rate of inflation rose to 9.1% in July, up from 8.6% in June.
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1. Canadian REIT:
A. Bought 100 BTB.UN:CA at C$3.56 (C$1 Interactive Brokers Commission):
Quote: BTB Real Estate Investment Trust (BTB-UN.TO)
This is my first purchase.
Market Cap at C$3.56: About C$310M
Cost: C$357
Owns 75 properties with 6.1M leasable square feet.
Committed Occupancy 94.6%
Website: BTB REIT
Dividend: Monthly at C$.025 (C$.30 annually)
Yield at TC of C$3.58 = 8.38%
Next Ex Dividend: 9/27/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24):
Sourced: Q2-2024_Interim Financial Statements and Report.pdf
All amounts are in Canadian Dollars
Rental Revenue: $32.218M
AFFO Adjusted at $8.23M
AFFO Adjusted per share: $.094
AFFO Adjusted Payout Ratio: 80.2%
Reconciliation Net Income to FFO:
Reconciliation FFO to AFFO Adjusted:
NAV per unit: $5.5
2. Small Ball Sells:
A. Pared BDN - Sold Shares with Unrealized Loss at the Prices Indicated Below:
Loss Snapshot: -$55.13 (20 shares)
Quote: Brandywine Realty (BDN) - Office REIT
Proceeds: $107.1
BDN has been a problematic investment since I decided to reestablish a position.
Management: Internal
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Our Properties | Brandywine Realty Trust
 |
| 10-Q at page 17 |
Debt as of 6/30/24:
 |
| Page 22, 10-Q |
Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Added to BDN - Bought 10 at $4.03 (11/25/23 Post); Item # 1.K. Added 5 BDN at $3.88 (6/3/23 Post)
New Average cost per share: $4.88 (116+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 9/17/24 after last pare |
Last Bond Offerings:
Interest refinancing costs have spiked significantly higher.
Downgrades in Office REIT SU debt, while keeping negative outlooks, has been normal since the pandemic.
The BDN debt is currently rated at Ba2/BB+.
4/24: Prospectus; 8.875% SU notes maturing in 2029. Proceeds were used in part to pay off early a 4.1% SU that would have matured on 10/1/24.
I owned the 4.1% note.
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%20+$75.58%20RI%20.png) |
| RI Account |
12/22: Prospectus; 7.55% SU notes maturing in 2028. Proceeds were used to pay off a 3.95% SU note that matured on 2/15/23.
For the 6 months ending on 6/30/24, interest expense was reported at $54.543M, up from $46.322M in the same period in 2023.
I do not currently have a position in BDN debt.
B. Pared GIS - Sold 5 at $75.14:
Quote: General Mills Inc. (GIS)
Proceeds: $375.68
General Mills Investor Relations
GIS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
General Mills: Brands overview
SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 5/26/24
GIS announced that it had entered into an agreement to sell its yogurt business. General Mills Announces Agreements to Sell Its North American Yogurt Business to Lactalis and Sodiaal (9/12/24) The cash transactions are valued at $2.1B. The yogurt businesses being sold contributed about $1.5B in fiscal 2024 net sales. "General Mills anticipates the combined transactions will be approximately 3 percent dilutive to adjusted earnings per share in the first 12 months after the close, excluding transaction costs and other one-time impacts. The company expects to use the net proceeds from the transactions for share repurchases."
Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Pared GIS - Sold 5 at $68.83 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $59.15) I discussed in that post the earnings report for the 4th fiscal quarter ending 5/26/24. SEC Filed Press Release I mentioned there that I had an unfavorable reaction to this report.
New Average cost per share: $55.2 (35 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 9/18/24 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.60 per share, last raised from $.59 effective for the 2024 third quarter payment.
Yield at $55.2: 4.348%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/10/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 8/25/24): This is first fiscal quarter for the 2025 fiscal year.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Comparisons are to the prior fiscal year's 4th quarter.
Revenues: $4.8B, down 1%
Organic revenues down 1%
GAAP E.P.S. = $1.03, down 10%
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.07, down 2% in constant currency
"Gross margin was down 130 basis points to 34.8 percent of net sales, driven primarily by input cost inflation, unfavorable mark-to-market effects, and unfavorable net price realization and mix."
I am not reducing my GIS stake to lower my average cost per share but due to the valuation in light of the revenue stagnation and flat to down year-over-year earnings.
Fiscal 2025 Guidance: Adjusted E.P.S range from down 1% to up 1% in CC.
SU Bonds Owned: I own 2 General Mills 4% SU bonds that mature on 4/17/25 that were bought at a 97.35 total cost: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Pared GIS - Sold Highest Cost 5 Share Lot at $68.17 (3/22/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $28.61, discussed the earnings report for the F/Q ending 2/25/24, SEC Filed Earnings Press Release); Item # 1.C. Eliminated GIS in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 2+ at $80.41 (3/6/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $66.83); Item # 3.C. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $86.64 (12/13/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $145.71); Item # 6.A. Pared GIS - Sold 5 at $81.64 (11/8/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $118.72); Item # 4.B. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $80.65 (9/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $112.89); Item # 2.B. Sold 2+ GIS at $67.1 and 3 at $69.22 (1/7/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $46.67); Item # 3.B. Sold 1.582 GIS at $64.42 - Eliminated Shares Bought with Dividends (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $8.09); Item # 1.A. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 4 at $61.37 (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.95); Item # 1.A. Eliminated GIS-Sold 27+ at $54.86 (3/21/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $426.37); Item # 1.A. Sold 13 GIS at $55.02-Used Commission Free Trade (8/17/19 Post)(profit = $134.13); Item 1.B. Sold Highest Cost GIS lots at $51.69 (4/7/2019 Post); Item #2.A. Sold 10 GIS at $56.18-Used Commission Free Trade (12/21/17 Post) Snapshots of 2007 through 2017 round-trip trades can be found in Item 1.B (+$1,809.99).
GIS Realized Gains to Date: +$3,043.95
C. Eliminated TGNA - Sold 40 at $15.05:
Quote: TEGNA Inc. (TGNA)
Proceeds: $601.98
TEGNA owns "64 television stations in 51 U.S. markets, TEGNA is the largest owner of top 4 network affiliates in the top 25 markets among independent station groups, reaching approximately 39 percent of all television households nationwide. TEGNA also owns leading multicast networks True Crime Network and Quest. TEGNA offers innovative solutions to help businesses reach consumers across television, digital and over-the-top (OTT) platforms, including Premion, TEGNA’s OTT advertising service."
Investor Relations | TEGNA Inc.
TEGNA Inc. (TGNA) Valuation Measures & Financial Statistics
Profit Snapshot: $43.85
Last Discussed: Item # 2.I. Added to TGNA - Bought 5 at $12.83 (6/20/24 Post) I discussed the 2024 second quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Dividend: Quarterly at $.125 per share ($.5 annually)
TGNA Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Ex Dividend: 9/6/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
I was disappointed that revenues declined 3% to $710M.
Advertising and marketing services revenue declined 5% to
I was hoping for robust political advertising in an election year.
GAAP E.P.S. $.48
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $.50, up from $.44.
D. Pared BNL in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $18.85:
Quote: Broadstone Net Lease Inc. (BNL) - A Net Lease REIT
Proceeds: $94.25
Net Lease Definition and Types—Single, Double, Triple
This REIT has been selling its healthcare properties. SEC Filed Press Release
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.E. Added to BNL - Bought 5 at $14.57 (4/26/24 Post); Item # 1.I. Added to BNL - Bought 2 at $14.86 (3/1/24 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$15.66
New average cost per share: $14.82 (91+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 9/20/24 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $14.87
Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 per share ($1.16 annually), last raised from $.285 effective for the 2024 second quarter payment.
I have a duplicate BNL position in my Fidelity account which I may eliminate before year end.
BNL Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC per share: 7.827%
Next Ex Dividend: 9/30/24.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Pared BNL in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $17.85 (8/2/24 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here.
E. Pared GOOD - Sold Highest Cost 2 Shares at $15.99:
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)
Proceeds: $31.98
Properties Owned: 136, 16.8257+M square feet, 98.5% leased
Management: External
Profit Snapshot: +$7.28
New Average cost per share: $9.01 (43 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 9/20/24 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $9.15.
Dividend: Monthly at $.10 per share
Monthly at $.10 per share, cut from $.1254 per share effective for the January 2023 payment. One cause was the amount of variable rate debt priced at spreads to SOFR. As interest rate costs rose, FFO is reduced and consequently there is less cash flow support for the dividend.
Dividend History-Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD)
Last Discussed: Item # 2.E. Pared GOOD - Sold 5 at $15.31 A (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.2); Item # 2.B. Eliminated GOOD in my Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 16 at $12.26 (11/25/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.77); Item # 3.B. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account - Sold 26+ at $13.33 (7/22/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $128.61)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24):
GAPP E.P.S. ($.04)
Core FFO per share: $.36
Net Income to FFO Reconciliation:
"The most important add back is the $16.015M depreciation "expense".
"Collected 100% of cash rents due during April, May, and June
"Purchased a five-property portfolio comprised of 142,125 square feet in the aggregate for $12.0 million at a cap rate of 12.3%"
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 Debt is through a credit facility and mortgages, see pages 16-19.
As of 6/30/24, the carrying value of the mortgage debt was $273.8M, with "interest rates on our fixed rate mortgage notes payable varied from
As of 6/30/24, borrowings under the credit facility were $451.2M at a weighted average cost of 6.79%. Borrowings under that facility are priced at spreads to SOFR ranging from 125 to 195 basis points. That interest cost will be coming down. "As of June 30, 2024, Secured Overnight Financing Rate (“SOFR”) was approximately
The company uses interest rate swaps and caps.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.B. Pared GOOD in Fidelity Account - Sold 8 at $16.69 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.77); Item # 3.F. Pared GOOD - Sold 2.197 shares at $20.8 and 2.352 shares at $20.84 (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.77); Item 1.M. Pared GOOD-Sold 12 at $18.72 and 10 at $19.76 (6/20/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $48.17); Item # 1.C. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account-Sold 50+ at $20.88 and Item # 1.D. Sold Highest Cost GOOD Share in Fidelity Account at $21.36 (3/3/19 Post)(profit snapshots = $165.33)
Preferred Stock: I prefer owning a preferred stock issued by GOOD whose dividend can not be cut, but only deferred after the cash common share dividend is eliminated. Gladstone Commercial Corp. 6.625% Pfd. Series E Stock (GOODN); Prospectus {dividends paid monthly, last discussed at Item # 2.C. Added to GOODN - Bought 10 at $18 (7/22/23 Post) and Item # 1.E. Added to GOODN - Bought 10 at $18.25 (7/8/23 Post)}
GOODN taxable accounts:
50 shares in my Schwab account with an average cost per share of $18.3 (yield at 9.05%)
20 shares in my my Fidelity Account at a $18.7 AC per share (yield at 8.86%)
10 shares in my Vanguard Account with a $17.3 AC per share (yield at 9.57%)
GOOD Realized Gains to Date: $402.53
F. Pared CGBD in Schwab Account -Sold 6 at $17.37:
Quote: Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD)
Proceeds: $104.22
I have also been reducing my CGBD position in my Fidelity account.
Management: External
10-Q for the Q/E 2024 Summary of investments starts at page 7.
Profit Snapshot: $20.63
Lot Details Remaining Shares in this account:
New average cost per share this account: $11.06 (50+ shares)
The AC in this account was reduced from $11.36.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 (regular only)
CGBD Stock Dividend History & Date
The next dividend will included a supplemental dividend of $.07 per share. With that special dividend, the total this year will be $.22 per share down from $.28 per share in special dividends paid in 2023. I would anticipate that this downtrend will continue into 2025 as floating rate loans made by CGBD reset at lower coupons.
Yield at New AC: 14.47% (regular dividend only)
Next Ex Dividend: 9/30/24 for regular and special dividends
I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item #2.D. Pared Duplicate Position in Fidelity Account - Sold 2 at $16.78 (9/12/24); SEC Filed Earnings Presentation My average cost per share in that account is currently at $7.24 creating at yield of 22.1% using the regular dividend only.
3. Tennessee Municipal Bonds:
A. Bought 5 Knoxville, TN. Gas Revenue 3% Bond Maturing on 3/1/2029 at a Total Cost of 99.39:
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Emma Page
Credit Ratings: Aa2/AA
Optional Call: Call protection has expired.
Interest: Paid semiannually and federally tax free.
YTM at Total Cost: 3.148%
Current Yield at TC = 3.0184%
B. Bought 5 Knox County, TN 3% GO Bonds Maturing on 6/1/2030 at a Total Cost of 99.63:
Emma Page
Credit Ratings: Aa1/AA+
Interest Paid Semiannually and Federally Tax Free
Optional Call: On or after 6/1/2027
YTM at Total Cost: 3.071%
Current Yield at TC = 3.01%
4. Corporate Bonds:
When I bought the bonds discussed below, the 1 year treasury bill yield was at 3.95%.
A. Bought 2 Oneok 2.2% SU Maturing on 9/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.868:
Issuer: ONEOK Inc. (OKE) - An Energy Infrastructure Company.
I have a small ball position in the commons stock and may liquidate that position next year.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
I had 6 Oneok bonds mature on 9/3/24.
I own 4 Oneok 4.9% SU bonds that mature on 3/15/25. Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.433%
Current Yield: 2.248%
This is primarily an income tax recognition shift out of 2024 into 2025. The first coupon payment will be on 3/15/25. I am now certain that my interest income will be lower in 2025 than this year.
Last Bond Offering: Prospectus Used to fund acquisitions. ONEOK to Acquire Medallion and Controlling Interest in EnLink from Global Infrastructure Partners in Transactions Valued at $5.9 Billion (8/28/24)
B. Bought 2 RTX 3.95% SU Maturing on 8/16/25 at a Total Cost of 99.552:
%208:16:25%203.95%25.png)
Issuer: RTX Corp. (RTX), formerly known as Raytheon Technologies that was created by the merger between the aerospace subsidiaries of United Technologies and Raytheon.
RTX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
RTX SEC Fiiled Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.456%
Current Yield at TC = 3.968%
C. Bought 2 Williams 4% SU Maturing on 9/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.58:
%204%25%209:15:25%20.png)
Issuer: Williams Partners, which was acquired by Williams Cos. (WMB), a corporation.Williams Completes Acquisition of Williams Partners (8/10/18)
2023 WMB SEC Filed Annual Report Debt is listed at page 125.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.444%
Current Yield at Total Cost: 4.017%
Last Bond Issuance (8/2024): Prospectus
In 2024 so far, I have had $4,000 in WMB SU bonds mature:
%20+$23.68%20.png){kind=small} |
| IB Account |
%20+$21.4%20.png){kind=small} |
| Fidelity |
I also currently own 6 WMB 3.9% SU bonds that mature on 1/15/25, FINRA, and 2 of the 3.75% SU Bonds that mature on 6/15/27. FINRA Basically I am extending the maturing of 2 bonds that mature on 1/15/25 by buying now 2 bonds that mature on 9/15/25. This rolling process is common for me.
5. Small Ball Buys:
A. Restarted APLE - Bought 10 at $14.47; 5 at $13.94:
Quote: Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. (APLE) - A Hotel REIT
Cost: $214.33
Investment Categories: Monthly Income Generation/ Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Apple Hospitality REIT
Hotel Map – Apple Hospitality REIT
Hotel Brands – Apple Hospitality REIT
Owns 224 hotels containing 30,068 rooms scattered over 37 states.
Top 20 Markets Operating Data for the Q/E 6/30/24
Operating performance by Hotel Brand for the Q/E 6/20/24:
Average cost per share: $14.29 (15 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.08 per share ($.96 annually), last raised from $.07 effective for the November 2022 payment.
APLE Dividend History | Nasdaq
The monthly dividend was of $.10 per share was cut to $.01 effective for the April 2020 payment. This was in response to the pandemic.
Yield at $14.29 AC = 6.72%
Next Ex Dividend: 9/30/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24):
Weighted average shares: 242.174M, up from 229.041M
Comparisons are to the 2023 second quarter.
Revenues: $390.077M, up from $361.63M
GAAP Net Income: $73.931M, up from $65.289M
GAAP E.P.S. $.31, up from $.29
Modified FFO (MFFO): $121.329M, up from $111.399M
Modified FFO per share: $.50, up from $.49
GAAP Net Income to Modified FFO Reconciliation:
The most significant add back is the noncash depreciation expense. This REIT deducts "Repair and maintenance" expense from revenues in arriving at the GAAP net income number.
Updated 2024 Guidance: "Capital expenditures" between $75M-$85M.
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24. A list of hotel properties starts at page 28. Debt is discussed and listed at pages 10-15. A lot of the debt is based on spreads to SOFR, a short term rate that will be coming down as the FED cuts the FF rate.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 5.A. Sold 50 APLE at $19.6 (12/18/17 Post); Item # 6.B. Sold Highest Cost Lot in Schwab at $19.22 (10/19/17 Post): Item # 2.B. Sold 100 APLE at $19.43 (5/25/17 Post)
B. Added to WU - Bought 2 at $11.67:
Quote: Western Union Co. (WU)
Cost: $24.33
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
My bond substitute category does not describe the safety of the common stock dividend but the goal of the investment. The goal is to harvest the "bond substitute" dividend plus an annualized realized gain on the shares of 2% or more.
WU Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New Average cost per share: $11.87 (57+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.235 per share ($.94 annually), last raised from $.225 per share effective for the 2021 first quarter payment.
I have turned off dividend reinvestment preferring to add 1 to 5 shares periodically through open market purchases provided any such purchase reduces my AC per share.
Yield at $11.87: 7.92%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/16/24 (owned 55+ as of)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to WU - Bought 3 at $11.75 (8/29/24 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and nothing further to add here. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
C. Added to WHF - Bought 5 at $11.5:
Quote: WhiteHorse Finance Inc. (WHF)
Cost: $57.5
SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 30 and ends at page 78)
New Average cost per share: $11.9 (20 shares)
Last Report NAV per share (6/30/24): $13.45
Dividend: Quarterly at $.385 per share ($1.54 annually)
Yield at $11.9: 12.94%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/18/24 (owned 10 shares as of)
I discussed this BDC in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 1.G. Started WHF - Bought 10 at $12.2; 5 at $11.7 (9/19/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
D. Added to OCSL - Bought 3 at $16.11:
Quote: Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp. (OCSL)
Management: External
Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Added to OCSL - Bought 3 at $18.59; 2 at $17.93 (7/19/24 Post) I discussed the 2024 first quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
OCSL is not working out as an investment so far. One reason is the increase in nonaccrual loans that I discuss below.
I discussed in a 7/13/24 comment and earlier posts an emerging headwind for BDCs. Their floating rate loans are priced at spreads to short term interest rates, usually SOFR, and net investment income will decline as the FED cuts the federal funds rate. The BDCs have had to refinance maturing senior unsecured debt at higher coupons than the maturing ones. Taken together, those events would pressure net investment income down. (see page 100, 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24)
New Average cost per share: $18.84 (30 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 9/23/24 after add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.55 per share ($2.2 annually)
OCSL Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $18.84: 11.68%
Last Ex Dividend:
Net Asset Value per share history:
6/30/24: $18.19
3/31/24: $18.94
12/31/23: $19.14
9/30/23: $19.63
9/30/22: $20.38
9/30/21: $21.84
9/30/20: $19.47
9/30/19: $19.81
9/30/18: $18.26
The external advisor replaced another firm as of 10/17/2017 that had failed miserably. Form 8-K
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): Investors reacted negatively to this report. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
GAAP Net Investment Income per share: $.54, which does not cover the quarterly dividend of $.55. OCSL has an adjusted NII per share of $.55 which excludes interest income amortization relating to merger accounting adjustments.
Nonaccrual investments as a percentage of debt investments at cost: 5.7%, up from 3.6% as of 6/30/23
One way to reduce the nonaccrual loans at quarter's end is to sell some at a loss.
It is consequently not surprising that net investment income declined to $44.5754M in this last quarter from $48.313M in the Q/E 6/30/23.
Investors correctly reacted negatively to this report IMO.
I will just continue nibbling in 1 to 3 share purchases provided each subsequent purchase reduces my average cost per share. The issue is whether the recent pathetic performance will continue or is more of a one off.
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 List of investments starts at page 6. Loans with a (20) in the far right column are in nonaccrual.
6. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 9/23/24 Auction:
%203:27:25%20.png){kind=small}
Mature on 3/27/24
Interest: $43.17
Investment Rate: 4.425%
B. Bought 3 Treasury Bills at the 9/23/24 Auction:
%2012:26:24.png){kind=small}
Matures on 12/26/24
This is the last 3 month treasury bill auction where the maturity is in 2024. I will buy 5 at the next auction which will have a January 2025 maturity with the interest taxable in 2025 when held to maturity.
Interest: +$34.43
Investment Rate: 4.656%
7. Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Added to ATLCZ - Bought 5 at $25.23:
Quote: Atlanticus Holdings Corp. 9.25% Senior Notes due 2029 (ATLCZ)
Cost: $126.15
Issuer: Atlanticus Holdings Corp. (ATLC)
ATLC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Started ATLCZ - Bought 5 at $25.3 (9/5/24 Post)
I am more willing to add to this SU bond, which I view as high risk, as "safe" income generating alternatives become less attractive due to the decline in interest rates.
Safety involves more than credit risk defined generally as the return of your money at maturity.
The broader safety issue is whether the after tax, inflation adjusted return from the investments will be sufficient to meet your financial requirements and goals. Using that definition, investment all or most of an investors savings in treasury bills may not be safe even though the principal amount is paid at maturity and the investment is viewed as safe from that perspective.
Senior Unsecured Note
Coupon: 9.25%
The notes were originally offered in January 2024.
Par Value: $25
Optional Call Information: I do not recall seeing a make whole provision in an exchange traded bond prior to reading this:
Yield at $25.27: 9.15%
(.0925% coupon x. $25 par value = $2.3125 in annual interest per share ÷ $25.27 average cost per share = 9.1512%)
The yield highlights the elevated credit risk.
Next Ex Interest Date: 10/1/24
B. Added to ARGD - Bought 5 at $22.2:
Quote: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. 6.5% Senior Notes Due 2042 (ARGD)
Cost: $111
The Argo Group is now a subsidiary of Brookfield Reinsurance Ltd (BNRE).
Brookfield Reinsurance Completes $1.1 Billion Acquisition of Argo Group
It is my understanding that BNRE is not legally obligated to pay interest or the principal amount at maturity. However, it is doubtful that the parent company would allow a default after paying $1.1B in cash for the Argo Group.
This SU bond has become slightly more attractive to me after the FED's rate cut.
There is a chance that the issuer may call the bond at its $25 par value. Call protection expired in 2017.
Last Discussed: Item # 5.D. Added to ARGD - Bought 5 at $22.1 (8/2/24 Post)
New Average cost per share: $22.57 (130 shares)
Yield at $22.57: 7.2%
Last Ex Interest: 8/30/24 (owned 125 as of)
Annual Income: $211.25
Credit Rating/Risk: AM Best rates the SU debt at BBB-. AM Best Removes Under Review With Developing Implications; Affirms Credit Ratings of Argo Group International Holdings, Inc. and Its Subsidiaries
Prior to Argo's acquisition, S&P had a BBB- rating for this bond as well. According to Schwab, the rating is still at BBB- which indicates that its credit risk did not change since it is a stand alone corporation inside BNRE.
One of the issues that I have now is that I can not find financial information about the operating results of Argo. BNRE reports on a consolidated basis.
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase must lower my average cost per share. The maximum position is 150 shares. With interest rates trending down, the yield becomes more attractive to me.
8. Eliminated 2 Duplicate Positions in KIO - Sold 35 at $14.76 (Vanguard Account) and 50+ in Schwab Account:
Proceeds:$1,257.16
Owns junk bonds and leveraged loans. The fund is organized as a statutory trust and is classified as a CEF.
SEC Filing- Holdings as of 7/31/24
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 4/30/24
Leveraged: Yes, through preferred stock and a credit facility. CEF Connect currently has the leverage percentage at 35.32%, the management fee at 1.7%, other expenses at .3% and the interest expense at 2.81%, creating together a fee/expense ratio of 4.95%.
Profit Snapshots: +$153.07
Sponsor's Website: KIO | KKR Funds
Credit Quality: Junk-High Credit Risk Investments
Dividend: Monthly at $.1215 ($1.5 annually)
My average cost per share was at $14.12. The yield at that AC was 10.62%. Escaping with a profit on the shares is viewed by me as a victory.
Data Date of 9/20/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $13.61
Closing Market Price: $14.72
Premium: +8.6%
Average 3 Year Discount: -6.44%
KIO Page at Morningstar (currently rated at 4 stars)
Problems: The premium is one reason why I sold these shares. Needless to say, I am uncomfortable with the credit risks and the extensive use of leverage given those risks. The preferred shares ($50M in principal amount) have a superior claim to the common shares. The leveraged loan coupons based at spreads to short term rates will start to trend down due to the FED rate cuts. The management expense ratio.
I still own 50 shares in my Fidelity account.
9. Equity Preferred Stocks - Bank Holding Companies:
Preferred stocks issued by bank holding companies pay non-cumulative dividends and will become worthless when and if the FDIC seizes the operating bank. The downside risk is zero.
A. Pared DCOMP - Sold 20 at $20.39 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: Dime Community Bancshares 5.5% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series A Stock Overview
Proceeds: $407.78
Issuer: Dime Community Bancshares Inc. (DCOM) - A Bank Holding Company
DCOM SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
I have eliminated my common stock position.
Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity preferred stock, senior only to common stock and junior to all debt.
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.5% paid on the $25 par value
Dividend: Paid quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative.
Stopper Clause: Standard. (see pp. S-16 and S-17 of the prospectus). This clause enforces the preferred shareholders' preferential claim to cash against only the common stockholders. The common stock dividend has to be eliminated before eliminating the preferred stock dividend.
Issuer Optional Call: On or after 2/15/25.
Given the low coupon, I would not currently anticipate that this security will be called in 2025. To be called, the ten year treasury yield would probably need to fall to less than 2%, probably closer to 1.5%, and DCOM would need to have a credit risk profile that would enable it to call DCOMP and refinance at a materially lower coupon.
Last Discussed: Item # 4.C. Added to DCOMP in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $15 (10/21/24 Post); Item # 2.D. Added to DCOMP - Bought 10 at $13.85 (6/10/23 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$5.98
New average cost per share: $17.82 (50 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 9/20/24 after pare |
Yield at New AC = 7.716%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/8/24 (owned all as of)
Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. 5.5% Preferred Stock (DCOMP) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.I. Eliminated DCOMP in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $22.3 and Item # 2.J. Eliminated DCOMP in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 15 at $21.77 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $47.55); Item # 2.A. Pared DCOMP in Fidelity Account - Sold 30 out of 80 at $25.8 (1/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $170.85); Item # 2.B. Sold 10 DCOMP at $21.14 and 10 at $22.06-Highest Cost Lots Fidelity Taxable Account (9/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.23)
Realized Gains to Date DCOMP: +$250.51
B. Pared TCBIO -Sold 2 at $22.53 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. 5.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series B
Proceeds: $45.06
Issuer: Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. (TCBIO) - Bank Holding Company
TCBIO Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.75% paid on the $25 par value
Dividends: Paid quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative.
Stopper Clause: Standard (enforces the preferred shareholders superior claim to cash compared only to the common shareholders) If the preferred share dividend is legally eliminated, it is gone, just like the eliminated cash common share dividend, with the issuer under no legal obligation to pay the preferred dividend again unless the stopper clause is reactivated by paying a cash dividend to the common shareholder or using cash to buy back common stock.
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Added to TCBIO - Bought 5 at $15.95; 2 at $15.6 (10/28/23 Post); Item # 3.A. Added to TCBIO - Bought 5 at $17.95 (9/9/23 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $6.48
New Average cost per share: $17.52 (25 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 9/20/24 after pare |
Yield at New AC: 8.2%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/3/24
TCBIO Stock Dividend History & Date
I also own 21 shares in my Fidelity account with an average cost per share at $18.92.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
The government reported the PCE inflation numbers for August.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2024
Month-to-Month for PCE and Core PCE Inflation at .1%
Annual PCE at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in the 12 month period ending in July 2024
Core PCE at 2.7%, up from 2.6%
Inflation numbers are still being driven higher by the shelter expense which includes the fictional expense of owners equivalent rent.
I discussed that report and other matters relating to inflation in a video published earlier today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAQBz3I_ezY&t=106s
I noticed that Trump is hawking a garish $100,000 Trump Victory watch. Now that is inflation. I paid $80 for my Seiko solar watch about a decade ago. The watch requires some sunlight or even lamp light as its power source. I have never had to do anything other than light exposure to keep it running.
I don't have as much confidence in Harris's policy judgements as I'd like, but daily Trump shows me that the bottom is never the bottom with him.
DeleteEvery time I hear about China I'm glad I took a profit in BABA and didn't go back into anything Chinese because of potential regulation problems. The economy was still strong when I left.
DeleteI finally have signed 'critical' papers! Healthcare proxy, Power of attorney, Trust with pourover Will, Certification of Trust, Transfer of household stuff in. It took 1 1/2 at the bank for the notary and witness signing. Took at least 2 weeks of focused work to get it done. I don't know how much was emotional resistance, how much were bugs in Word that took forever, and how much was real work.
DeleteIt's not done yet, need to write up where things are. I haven't decided whether to transfer in the house & POD accounts or let the trustee do it with the pourover will. Meanwhile, it all gives a lot of powers just in case!
I used freewill.org. Non-profits refer to them in hopes you'll include them in your will. I looked at NOLO's which were sparse. Did the free week with rocketlawyer and wasted time sorting out the many errors and poor wordings, until I gave up. Freewill's seems strong. I still have a task of attorney review though. Not a job you can correct after it's needed.
I learned two things:
1) The writing started to make sense and it was interesting.
2) This is not the job for me. Even as a programmer, I'm not detailed enough.
Land: For long term investors, there has been no good reason to go outside the U.S. stock market and invest in foreign markets using stock funds (ETFs or Mutual Funds) over the past ten years or so.
Delete10 year average annual total returns through last Friday:
SPY: +13.18%
QQQ: +18.25%
International
VXUS (all) = +5.35%
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/vxus/performance
VWO (emerging markets): +4.1%
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vwo/performance
VGX (Europe) = 5.84%
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vgk/performance
VEA (international developed): +5.85%
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vea/performance
I looked at Israel bonds thinking their rates would be higher because Moody's (and only Moody's) downgraded the country risk.
DeleteThey aren't higher. Next I'll look at the ETFs.
Meanwhile the last 2-3 days has been a confidence builder in the defense against Iran's mullah's and their Hizbollah and Hamas proxies. Lebanese and Syrian (non-Basher supporters) are celebrating.
Land: Moody's downgrade of Israel's bonds was two notches, going from A2 to Baa1. The concern includes geopolitical risks, which are uncertain and unknowable with any certainty, the increases in borrowings to finance the conflicts, and an economy which Moody's views as "more durably weakened by the military conflict than expected earlier."
DeleteI would expect more sovereign credit downgrades when and if there are repetitive, persistent, successful and serious attacks (missiles, drones, etc.) that significantly disrupt Israel's economy, even if they fall well short of threatening its existence.
I do not buy foreign government or corporate bonds.
I did buy about $12K in principal amount of U.S. corporate bonds last week that I did not discuss in this post and will discuss in the next one. Those have Baa2 or Baa1 ratings so the rating does not scare me off after I am comfortable with the company credit risk which does not include a country credit risk and currency related risk issues.
Yields are much lower now than they were just a few months ago.
In today's bond market, if investors believe in the credit rating as properly assessing the credit risk, there is not going to be that much difference in yields offered by Baa1 and A2 rated bonds.
And there could be non-credit related reasons why the Israeli bonds may hold up notwithstanding the downgrade (e.g. people wanting to support the government in times of need).
When the yield is out-of-whack with the credit rating, which is the case with bonds issued by BDCs which have higher YTMs than similarly rated bonds issued by regular "C" entities , investors are in effect downgrading the bond at least one notch below the credit rating agency, and that is apparent with the consistently higher yield than prevailing among non-pass through entity issued bonds with the same credit rating.
I hired a repair company (of 1) to move my fence.
ReplyDelete1) Estimates seemed high even with inflation.
2) They seemed anxious for work. Could start the next day. Called me to see if I'd gotten the estimate several times.
I hired someone in my neighborhood, who does have another job and put me into a Sunday. He doesn't speak English. His wife kind of does and acts as translator. But priced at 1/3 to <1/2 of everyone. He's done a great job.
I'm curious why so many repair people are looking for jobs, but pricing higher. Part may be that they're used to upscale neighborhoods around here. But still.
When I last discussed the REIT equity preferred stock HTIA, I mentioned that the company was going to internalize management, which was finalised on 9/30/24. The issuer is still private but is exploring going public.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1561032/000110465924104019/tm2425086d1_ex99-1.htm
The REIT renamed itself National Healthcare Properties, Inc.:
National Healthcare Properties Inc. 7.375% Cum. Redeem. Pfd. Series A (HTIA)
$16.48 -$0.19 -1.14%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/htia?mod=search_symbol
Par value is $25.
Next Ex Dividend: 10/4/24
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/10/clpr-cmcsa-emp-enbprpca-fbiox-nbxg-pdm.html