Dollar Value of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Outflow Corporate Bonds Sold: $9,048 after commissions ($9K par value)
Realized Gain Corporate Bonds: $103.55
Outflow Treasury Notes Sold: $3,024.73 ($3K par value)
Realized Gain T Notes: $53.88
Inflow Treasury Bills Purchased at Auctions: $20,000 in principal amount
Inflow Common Stock Purchases: $1,331.74
Outflow Common Stock/Stock Fund Sales: $995.11
Realized Gain Stocks/Stock Fund: Net of $76.05
Net Inflow Stocks/Stock Funds: $336.63
Net Outflow Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stock: C$2,147 (after C$1 commission)
Realized Gain Canadian Reset Preferred: +C$432.
Outflow Bond ETFs: $947.11 (proceeds with be redirected into purchases of equity REIT stocks where I am averaging down on several positions)
Realized Gain Bond ETFs: +$16.38
++
Probabilities of a Fed Rate Cut on or before the September Meeting:
CME FedWatch - CME GroupThe probabilities are based on the federal funds futures and consequently are a crowd sourced opinion.
++
2025 Decline in the US Dollar (USD)
Trump: "No, we’re not going to let the dollar slide. If you have a smart president, you’re never going to let the dollar slide. If you have a dummy, that could happen." The U.S. Dollar has been sliding in value since Trump started his second term.
I discussed Trump's statement in a YT video: Trump: Only a Dumb President Would Allow the U.S. Dollar to Decline in Value - YouTube I noted in that video that a weak USD contributes to inflationary pressures by increasing the costs of imported products.
US dollar is off to its worst start in 50 years. Here's why that matters for you. - ABC News
Weak dollar means worse tariff inflation - POLITICO
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Overview | MarketWatch
WSJ Dollar Index (BUXX) Overview | MarketWatch
DXY and BUXX will decline when the USD is losing value against a basket of foreign currencies. DXY has a basket of 6 currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD and SEK). The WSJ Dollar Index has a basket of 16 foreign currencies.
The most inclusive index with 26 foreign currencies is known as the Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index that is trade weighted. Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index -St. Louis Fed; Federal Reserve Board - Foreign Exchange Rates - H.10 - July 21, 2025 (128.61 on 1/21/25 and at 120.7674 on 7/18/25)
Jeffrey Sachs: The US Dollar is DYING - YouTube I view that opinion as hyperbole. Nonetheless, Sachs is making a reasonable forecast that the USD will lose its reserve status in ten years or so due to U.S. deficit spending, debt, current account deficits, government dysfunction, and protectionists policies. The more likely prediction is more than 10 years, possibly closer to 15. The world will just find another alternative.
What’s the US Dollar’s Decline Telling Us? | AB; Opinion: The U.S. dollar is still the world’s currency — but maybe not for much longer - MarketWatch (subscription publication)
+++
Economy:
Estimated Budgetary Effects of Public Law 119-21, to Provide for Reconciliation Pursuant to Title II of H. Con. Res. 14, Relative to CBO’s January 2025 Baseline | Congressional Budget Office The CBO's latest estimate is that the BBB will add $3.4 trillion to the budget deficit over the 2025-2034 period. I view that estimate as being too low, primarily due to my expectation that interest rates will be much higher on refinancing the existing debt and funding budget deficits.
Advance Estimates of Monthly Retail Trade for June - Sales Report "Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $720.1 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2024." This was stronger than the consensus estimate.
Beige Book (July 2025) "Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains, five had flat activity, and the remaining two Districts noted modest declines in activity. . . Employment increased very slightly overall, with one District noting modest increases, six reporting slight increases, three no change, and two noting slight declines. Hiring remained generally cautious, which many contacts attributed to ongoing economic and policy uncertainty. . . . Prices increased across Districts, with seven characterizing price growth as moderate and five characterizing it as modest, mostly similar to the previous report. In all twelve Districts, businesses reported experiencing modest to pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs, especially for raw materials used in manufacturing and construction. Rising insurance costs represented another widespread source of pricing pressure. Many firms passed on at least a portion of cost increases to consumers through price hikes or surcharges, although some held off raising prices because of customers' growing price sensitivity, resulting in compressed profit margins. Contacts in a wide range of industries expected cost pressures to remain elevated in the coming months, increasing the likelihood that consumer prices will start to rise more rapidly by late summer." (emphasis added)
Vietnam thought it had a deal on its US tariff rate. Then Trump stepped in. - POLITICO The author of this article claims that Trump misrepresented the preliminary agreement with Vietnam, which explains why there has been no document released summarizing the outline of a preliminary agreement. Trump claimed that Vietnam had agreed that exports from Vietnam would be subject to a 20% republican tariff tax while Vietnam claims the agreement was for about 11%. Trump also falsely claimed that Vietnam would pay the U.S. tariff tax for shipments made my companies located in Vietnam to the U.S.
Why does Trump claim that foreign countries pay the U.S. tariff taxes? The answer is obvious. If the foreign country paid the tariff tax, then the U.S. importer would not have to increase the price to U.S. consumers to recoup the tariff tax that the U.S. importer actually pays in reality.
Bessent told investors there was no reason to worry about the 8/12/25 trade deal deadline with China.
Trump disputes WSJ report on Bessent talking him out of firing Powell
Homebuilders are slashing prices at the highest rate in 3 years
Trump targets solar, wind with tighter permitting in another blow to renewables
Updated: Economic Impacts Of U.S. "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" Energy Provisions • Energy Innovation Electricity prices will increase above where they would have been without the republican BBB.
We Went To Canada To See The U.S. Product Boycotts — And What We Found Was Striking - YouTube; Canadian tourism to U.S. drops dramatically amid Trump's harsh rhetoric - YouTube
Canada to reduce foreign steel imports in wake of U.S. tariffs - YouTube
Stellantis expects first-half net loss of $2.7 billion as tariffs bite
++++
The 6 Monarchists on the Supreme Court:
Supreme Court allows Trump to proceed with mass firings at Education Department; Supreme Court allows Trump to gut Department of Education - YouTube The Republican Justices will allow Trump to dismantle the Department of Education, established by Congress, without securing the approval of Congress.
The Republicans provided no explanation for their decision. The Supreme Court Owes America an Explanation - The Atlantic (subscription publication) There was a scathing dissent authored by Justice Sotomayor that was joined by Justices Jackson and Kagan. McMahon v. New York (07/14/2025)
The 6 Republican Justices are not conservatives in the American legal tradition but Monarchists IMO. Their central and overriding judicial philosophy is that the President needs to have Kingly powers that King George would have envied in 1776. This Is the Presidency John Roberts Has Built - The Atlantic (subscription publication)
This inescapable conclusion about the Republican Justices became crystal clear with the 6 to 3 decision to create a Presidential near absolute immunity from criminal prosecution. I would characterize this 2024 created constitutional provision an absolute immunity as a practical matter. The creation of that immunity provides a clear pathway for a demagogic authoritarian to undermine Democracy and the Constitution, with impeachment being the only remedy, and that remedy is of course illusory.
There will never be enough votes in the Senate to convict Trump of impeachment charges, no matter what he does. Republican Senators are Trump enablers.
The Republican Justices have and will continue undermining the very foundational principles that caused the American Revolution and the balance of powers set out so carefully in the Constitution.
A primary concern of the founders was to prevent what the Republican Justices are now authorizing - an Imperial President without any effective checks on the exercise of powers by either Congress or the Republican Supreme Court Justices who are instead removing restraints imposed by lower courts. The 6 Republican Justices are not a check on the exercise of imperial presidential power inconsistent with the Founder's objectives, but are enabling it.
Trump says redistricting will give GOP 5 extra House seats in Texas. Hear Gov. Newsom’s response - YouTube The Republican Justices have greenlighted political gerrymandering that undermines democracy. Rucho v. Common Cause | 588 U.S. 684_(2019). The 6 Republican Justices have gone so far to greenlight what was clearly racial gerrymandering, where republicans removed black voters from a competitive district in South Carolina and placed them in a district that already had a majority of black voters represented by a black Democrat. The Supreme Court Just Made Gerrymandering Even Easier | Brennan Center for Justice With those rulings, the Republican Justices are undermining democracy and making it far easier for authoritarian rule by a minority. I am curious why anyone, still grounded in American values and taking into account the reasons for the Revolutionary War, views that approach as the conservative one.
{My YouTube Video: The Tennessee GOP has decided that Nashville will not be allowed to elect a Democrat to Congress - YouTube This was done by the Tennessee Republicans carving up Nashville into three geographic areas and then joining each area with heavily republican rural areas and small towns, the kind of places where Trump received over 70% of the vote, making it impossible for anyone other than a pure Trumpster to win any of the three newly created districts. Prior to that gerrymandering, the Democrat incumbent who represented Nashville had won the 2020 election with 100% of the vote since the republicans did not bother to run a candidate. Nashville is now represented by 3 pure Trumpsters in Congress, none of whom even live in Nashville, Davidson County, TN.}
The 6 Republican Justices are and will be responsible for what Donald Trump has done and will do as President.
++
Trump Envisions Jailing Obama | TIME The North Carolina republicans nominated a candidate for school superintendent who advocated the pay-per view broadcast of Obama's execution. She received over 2.7 million votes. North Carolina Superintendent of Public Instruction Election 2024 Live Results; {My Videos: Michele Morrow The GOP's Candidate for North Carolina's School Superintendent - YouTube; Republican down ballot candidates in North Carolina: Michelle Morrow and Mark Robinson - YouTube; GOP Candidate for North Carolina's Governor Mark Robinson - More Disturbing Comments - YouTube} Robinson who reportedly described himself as a black Nazi received more votes than Morrow: Mark Robinson ends defamation lawsuit against CNN over ‘black NAZI’ article | Courthouse News Service; Mark Robinson, NC GOP nominee for governor, called himself a ‘black NAZI!,’ supported slavery in past comments made on porn forum | CNN Politics
Gabbard threatens Obama and Obama officials with criminal referral over 2016 election assessment; Tulsi Gabbard calls for Obama to be prosecuted over 2016 election claims-The Guardian Gabbard disagrees with the bipartisan Senate panel that included Marco Rubio that supported the intel assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 election to support Trump. Senate Intelligence Committee 966 page report on Russian interference in the 2016 United States presidential election - Wikipedia; READ: Full Senate Intelligence Report On Russian Election Interference : NPR; Trump's intelligence chiefs try to rewrite the history of the 2016 election
Trump posts AI video of Obama being arrested: ‘No one is above the law’ | The Independent
Judge bars Trump administration from imposing sanctions over ICC work Trump issued an Executive Order sanctioning the International Criminal Court, prohibiting U.S. citizens from interactions with the ICC, and threatening civil and criminal penalties for any violation. The District Court ruled that the order violated the First Amendment of U.S. citizens. Smith-v-Trump-Order | DocumentCloud
NPR CEO warns public broadcasting cuts will cause ‘stations to go dark’ as soon as next quarter - YouTube; Trump's cuts to NPR, PBS and foreign aid clear Congress Congress approved a rescission in funding under the The Impoundment Control Act of 1974. As I discussed in 2 YT videos, Trump's impoundment of funds without congressional approval was clearly illegal when done. Trump's Proposal To Impound Funds Authorized by Congress pursuant to laws that he does not like - YouTube; Lawful and Unlawful Spending Freezes, Cuts & Eliminations - Trump's Authoritarianism - YouTube Impoundment with congressional approval, which has now occurred for the PBS/NPR funding, is legal. That makes the funding rescission a political issue in the next election.
Stephen Colbert Announces The Cancellation Of “The Late Show” - YouTube Trump was gleeful: "I absolutely love that Colbert got fired" Donald Trump celebrates CBS's end to Stephen Colbert's 'Late Show' Colbert criticized Paramount's settlement with Trump and is an outspoken critic: "I believe this kind of complicated financial settlement with a sitting government official has a technical name in legal circles. It’s a big fat bribe." Many observers believed that the $16M settlement of a frivolous lawsuit, some refer to it as a bribe, was necessary to secure the Trump's administration approval of Paramount's deal with Skydance. The Gloves Are Off | "I Absolutely Love That Colbert Got Fired" | Trump & Epstein's Wonderful Secret - YouTube
Former Intel Chief Banned From Dog's Graduation Ceremony - The Atlantic Trump prevented the former U.S. Intel Chief James Clapper from attending the graduation ceremony of a K9 bomb sniffing dog that Clapper had sponsored at a non-profit.
Trump Administration Asks for Ex-Officer Convicted In Breonna Taylor Shooting Be Given One-Day Prison Sentence "During the deadly police raid, former Louisville officer Brett Hankison fired blindly into Taylor’s home and also sent bullets into a neighboring home, just missing a pregnant mother and a young sleeping child next door, according to NBC News, CNN, and USA Today."
Noam Chomsky: Why Do So Many Americans Admire Trump? - YouTube While his views are interesting, he is approaching the issue with a too intellectual construct. The most important reason IMO, as determined by the greatest number of voters impacted, is the successful effort, which started with Nixon, to turn voters away from accurate information that results in their unwillingness to accept any accurate information that is inconsistent with the reality creations manufactured for them. It is an impenetrable Orwellian TrumpWorld. There are certainly a large number of voters who recognize Trump's true nature and support what he says and does.
Trump Torched U.S. Credibility—For Good | Shield of the Republic - YouTube
Marc Andreessen and the Billionaire Victims Club; Marc Andreessen’s White Grievance Rant is NUTS - YouTube
Russia shrugs off Trump's threat of 'very severe tariffs' Russia responded to Trump's threat by a massive attack on Ukraine that included 200 Shahed drones. Trump administration sued by U.S. states for cutting disaster prevention grants
Elon Musk's Neuralink says owned by 'disadvantaged' persons in filing
Luis Leon Deported: Trump Admin Sends 82 Year Old Grandfather to Guatemala
It is Trump of course, not Biden or Obama, who has weaponized the DOJ.
The 2 federal criminal cases against Trump were supported by the evidence and would have IMO resulted in several felony convictions, with the most likely being obstruction of justice in the documents case, assuming Trump had not been protected from prosecution by republican judges. {My Videos: Trump's Obstruction of Justice Felony Charge - YouTube;More on Trump Obstruction Felony Charges - YouTube; Supreme Court Protects Trump from Obstruction of an Official Proceeding Criminal Charge - YouTube; Supreme Court Resolution of Fisher v U S Impact on Trump's Criminal Case under 18 USC 1512(c)(2) - YouTube; Republican Justices Greenlight the President to Commit Crimes - YouTube; Will the 6 Republican Justices Bear Some Responsibility for Presidential Crimes Hereafter - YouTube
The Republican Senator from Louisiana, Bill Cassidy, referred to the obstruction charge as almost a slam dunk. Cassidy: Trump classified docs case is ‘almost a slam dunk’ But Senator Cassidy may have been the only republican who actually looked at the evidence. The remainder appeared to avoid any inquiry and simply had their opinions on the matter supplied to them by Trump and his servile minions.
++
The "Epstein Hoax":
Trump sent Jeffrey Epstein bawdy birthday letter: WSJ
Trump sues Murdoch over Epstein birthday letter article by WSJ The only way to deal with Trump's lawsuits, particularly the ones claiming defamation, is to fight them and never settle.
Trump calls Epstein controversy a "Hoax" and "bulls***," denouncing "weaklings" in GOP - CBS News As Republicans call for transparency into Epstein probe, Trump lashes out Trump is going to have the FBI investigate the Epstein "Hoax". Trump says FBI should investigate ‘the Jeffrey Epstein hoax’ as a criminal conspiracy against him Epstein was prosecuted and died during Trump's first term. The arrest occurred on 7/6/2019 and his alleged suicide was on 8/10/2019.
Trump had Pam Bondi fire the DOJ lawyer who brought the criminal charges against Epstein. Federal prosecutor in Epstein case, fired from US attorney’s office (7/16/25) Bondi is only following Trump's orders. No cabinet secretary in Trump's administration has any free will to take any action, no matter how justified and lawful, inconsistent with Trump's directives.
Excerpt of Message from the President of the United States Donald Trump: "The Radical Left Democrats have hit pay dirt, again! Just like with the FAKE and fully discredited Steele Dossier, the lying 51 “Intelligence” Agents, the Laptop from Hell, which the Dems swore had come from Russia (No, it came from Hunter Biden’s bathroom!), and even the Russia, Russia, Russia Scam itself, a totally fake and made up story used in order to hide Crooked Hillary Clinton’s big loss in the 2016 Presidential Election, these Scams and Hoaxes are all the Democrats are good at - It’s all they have - They are no good at governing, no good at policy, and no good at picking winning candidates. Also, unlike Republicans, they stick together like glue. Their new SCAM is what we will forever call the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax, and my PAST supporters have bought into this “bullshit,” hook, line, and sinker. They haven’t learned their lesson, and probably never will, even after being conned by the Lunatic Left for 8 long years." It is not possible to read Trump's messages and conclude that he is either sane or a decent human being IMO.
I would have been shocked to read anything like this message from any President prior to Trump. I would estimate that I have read well over 2,000 similar messages from President Trump including his Christmas and Easter messages. Everyone who voted for Trump knew or is presumed to have known who and what he is when casting a vote to give him a second term as President.
Trump and Bondi have made an effort to quell the now dominant and powerful conspiracy wing of the GOP by requesting a court to release the grand jury transcripts that led to Epstein's indictment. This is a ruse since court's rarely authorize the release of grand jury transcripts and none of the limited exceptions provided in Rule 6(e) apply to releasing the Epstein grand jury transcripts::
(E) The court may authorize disclosure—at a time, in a manner, and subject to any other conditions that it directs—of a grand-jury matter:
(i) preliminarily to or in connection with a judicial proceeding;
(ii) at the request of a defendant who shows that a ground may exist to dismiss the indictment because of a matter that occurred before the grand jury;
(iii) at the request of the government, when sought by a foreign court or prosecutor for use in an official criminal investigation;
(iv) at the request of the government if it shows that the matter may disclose a violation of State, Indian tribal, or foreign criminal law, as long as the disclosure is to an appropriate state, state-subdivision, Indian tribal, or foreign government official for the purpose of enforcing that law; or
(v) at the request of the government if it shows that the matter may disclose a violation of military criminal law under the Uniform Code of Military Justice, as long as the disclosure is to an appropriate military official for the purpose of enforcing that law.
Rule 6. The Grand Jury | Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure
It is obvious that Trump does not want Bondi to release the voluminous documents acquired in the investigation that can be released now without a court order.
U.S. House of Representatives Publication.pdf: Listen to the Jeffrey Epstein Tapes: 'I was Donald Trump's Closest Friend'".
Hear accounts detailing Trump-Epstein friendship witnessed by his former casino executive - YouTube
Trump and the Epstein files: Inside the history of a messy friendship, published at The Telegraph on 7/18/25
PolitiFact | Trump said Obama and Biden ‘made up’ Epstein files, but neither were in office when FBI investigated Rated as "Pants on Fire"
My Video: Epstein Issues and the Epstein Grand Jury Transcripts - YouTube
'Secret deal': Remember the Epstein scandal in the first Trump term? - YouTube Trump appointed the republican Rene Alexander Acosta to be his Secretary of Labor in 2017. Acosta was the attorney who gave Epstein a sweetheart non-prosecution deal in 2008. Timeline of the Jeffrey Epstein sex abuse case | Miami Herald (11/28/18); Epstein Non-Prosecution Agreement . PDF Acosta now serves on the Board of Directors of the far right Newsmax. Newsmax Inc. Names Paula Dobriansky, Alex Acosta to Board of Directors | Newsmax Media, Inc. (6/11/25); Newsmax - Wikipedia
Jeffrey Epstein accuser urged FBI to investigate Trump decades ago – report -The Guardian
Trump and Jeffrey Epstein’s friendship and history, explained | Vox
Every Time Trump Was Connected To Epstein Over Several Decades (Updated)
Jill Harth speaks out about alleged groping by Donald Trump-The Guardian
Donald Trump sexual misconduct allegations - Wikipedia
MAGA AI bot network divided on Trump-Epstein backlash
+++
1. Small Ball Common Stock Buys:
A. Added to GOOD - Bought 10 at $14; 5 at $13.8; 10 at $13.7 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD) - Externally Managed REIT
Cost: $346
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New average cost per share: $14.2 (65 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.10 per share.
GOOD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $14.3: 8.45%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/21/25 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (3/31/25): I discussed this report in my last post and have nothing further to add here: Item # 1.G. Added to GOOD - Bought 10 at $14.12 - Schwab Account (7/15/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
GOOD Realized Gains to Date: $442.99
B. Added PINE in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $14.35; 5 at $14.18:
Cost: $142.64
Management: External
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
PINE 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report
Property Portfolio — Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.
New Average cost per share this account: $14.77 (60+ shares)
Dividend: $.285 per share ($1.24 annually)
PINE Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I recently changed my dividend option to reinvestment based on the price decline.
Yield at $14.77: 7.718%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/12/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discussed this report in a recent post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 2.B. Added to PINE in Fidelity Account - Bought 3 at $14.69; 10 at $14.55 (7/9/25 Post);SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Investor Presentation
C. Bought 10 at OTF at $15.6; 10 at $15.4:
Quote Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)
Cost: $310.04
OTF is a new publicly traded BDC.
Trading commenced on 6/12/25. Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. to Begin Trading on the New York Stock Exchange (6/11/25)
I do not have access to any analyst reports. I noted news headlines that Keefe, Bruyette & Woods started coverage with a neutral rating and a $16 PT; Oppenheimer started with a market perform and a $16 PT, and Truist and Compass Point started with buy recommendations and a $17 PT.
With BDCs, my goal is always to trade my way into a total return in excess of the dividend payments. Given the dividend yield, any realized gain on the stock is acceptable to me no matter how small.
2024 SEC Filed Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 33 and ends at page 81)
Website: Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) The company states that is focus is on making debt and equity investments in U.S. technology related companies "with a strategic focus on software". As of 3/31/25, the portfolio consisted of investments in 181 companies valued at $12.1B. For the debt investments, 81.4% were senior secured and 97.2% were floating rates.
Fitch Report on SU Debt: Fitch Affirms Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.'s IDR at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable
Management: External
Other News: Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. Completes Merger with Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. II (3/24/25)
Average cost per share: $15.5 (20 shares)
Regular Dividend: $.35 per share ($1.4 annually). I am assuming for now that this first payment, made on 7/15/25, going ex on 6/30/25, is the regular dividend amount.
Special Dividends: 5 special dividends of $.05 per share each have been declared starting with a 9/21/25, with the remaining ones paid on a quarterly with the last ex dividend being on 9/21/26.
Yield at $15.5: 9.03% (regular dividend only, assuming $.35 per share will be the regular dividend)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25
The NII per shares for the first quarter was $.4135, arrived at by dividing the 97.332 net income by the 235.351M shares. The data is at page 4. The next earnings report is scheduled for release on 8/6.
Net Asset value per share: $17.09
Summary of investments starts at page 5.
Investments by category:
![]() |
| Page 56 10-Q |
Company assessment of how changes in interest rates impacts net investment income:
![]() |
| Page 118 10-Q |
As with other BDCs heavily weighted in variable rate loans, whose coupons are at spreads to short term rates, net investment income will rise with increases in short term rates and decrease when they go down.
Company assessment of credit risk:
![]() |
| Page 92 10-Q |
Non-accruing loans to total loans is low at .2% based on amortized cost through 3/31/25:
| Page 93, 10-Q |
Ultimately, success will depend in part on whether the equity investments in private companies prove to be rewarding, with realized gains far exceeding losses. I know nothing about these private companies. The equity investments are summarized at pages 12-16. The total dollar exposure is significant.
D. Added 5 NSA at $31.25 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
Cost: $156.25
Management: Internal
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to NSA - Bought 5 at $31.8 (7/3/25 Post)
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Pared NSA in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $48.54 (9/19/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.95); Item # 2.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in NSA - Sold 7 at $41.91 (Schwab Account) and Pared NSA in Fidelity Account Sold 5 at $53 (8/15/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $67.91)(mentioning in that report that I was not impressed with the 2024 second quarter earnings report, SEC Filing)
New average cost per share: $33.41 (40 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.57 per share ($2.28 annually)
NSA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $33.41: 6.82%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/13/25 (owned 25 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discussed this report in a recent post and nothing further to add here. Item # 3.B. Added to NSA in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $32.37 (6/26/25); SEC Filing
E. Added to SAFE - Bought 5 at $15; 5 at $14.84:
Quote: Safehold Inc. (SAFE) - A REIT That Owns Ground Leases
Cost: $149.2
Management: Internal
Safehold Inc. SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
![]() |
| Pages 2-3 Annual Report |
Website: Current Safehold Portfolio | Safehold
Safehold Inc. 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25
New average cost per share: $15.26 (25 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.177 per share ($.708 annually)
SAFE Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $15.26: 4.64%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25 (owned 15 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discussed this report in a recent post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 3.F. Started SAFE - Bought 10 at $15.6; 5 at $15.25 (6/26/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Earnings Slide Presentation
Owned SAFE SU Bonds: I own 4 of the SAFE 5.65% SU bonds maturing on 1/15/35. Item # 4.E. Bought 2 Safehold Operating 5.65% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/15/35 at a Total Cost of 98.167 (6/12/25 Post);Item #5.F. (6/5/25 Post); Bond Page | FINRA.org; Bond Prospectus
Purchase Restriction: 5 to 10 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
F. Added to COLD - Bought 5 at $16.14:
Quote: Americold Realty Trust Inc. (COLD) - A Cold Storage REIT
Cost: $80.68
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 Debt is discussed starting at page 48.
Last Discussed: Item 1.E. Added 5 COLD at $16.8; 5 at $16.65; 5 at $16.5 (5/30/25 Post)
New Average cost per share: $17.03 (35 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually)
COLD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $17.03: 5.4%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discussed this report here: Item # 2.B. Initiated COLD - Bought 10 at $17.8; 5 at $17.55 (5/23/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
Owned SU Bond: I currently own 2 of the Americold Operating LP 5.409% SU bonds that mature on 9/12/34. Bond Page | FINRA.org; Bond Prospectus (COLD guarantees the notes); Fitch Affirms Americold at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable; Morningstar DBRS Assigns Credit Rating of BBB With Positive Trend to Americold Realty Operating Partnership, L.P.'s $400 Million of 5.600% Notes Due 2032 | Morningstar DBRS
G. Restarted CVX as a Placeholder - Bought 1 at $146.93:
Quote: Chevron Corp.
A Placeholder is a reminder that I may want to buy more shares at a lower price. I am reminded of the position whenever I scroll through the account. Generally, the maximum position in a Placeholder position is 1 share with subsequent purchases in 1 or 2 share lots, with each one at the lowest price in the chain.
CVX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Website: Chevron Corporation
Recent Material News: Chevron completes Hess acquisition after defeating Exxon in dispute over Guyana oil assets; Chevron Completes Acquisition of Hess Corporation — Chevron (7/18/25) Hess has a 30% stake in the Guyana offshore oil assets. Exxon is the lead operator with a 45% stake. Guyana's Stabroek Block is estimated to be 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Chevron entry to Guyana oilfields solves company's top challenge | Reuters The deal was first announced in October 2023.
I currently have a totally immaterial position in E&P stocks. Stock prices do not reflect IMO the current energy prices and a reasonably forecasted outlook based on what is known now. Earnings from chemical and refining operations are depressed.
Energy Price Charts: Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma-St. Louis Fed; Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu) -EIA
The risk of a worldwide recession triggered by Trump's tariff war remains a possibility, and OPEC has decided to increase production. OPEC+ members agree to larger-than-expected oil production hike in August
Last Discussed: Item # 4.C. Eliminated CVX - Sold 1.567 at $180.27; 3 at $180.18 (12/6/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $372.58)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.B. Bought 1 CVX in Schwab Taxable at $96.5 (10/21/21 Post); Item # 2.I. Added 1 CVX at $98.12-Schwab Taxable (8/12/21 Post); Item # 2.B. Bought 1 CVX at $102.75 (6/19/21 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.71 per share ($6.84 annually), last raised from $1.63 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment.
CVX Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
CVX has raised its dividend for 38 consecutive years.
Yield at $146.93: 4.655%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/19/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Revenues: $47.61B, down from $48.716B
GAAP E.P.S. = $2, down from $2.97 in the 2024 first quarter
Adjusted E.P.S. = $2.18, down from $2.93
Reconciliation:
Upstream Production Numbers:
Downstream Numbers:
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers)
2. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Pared ENBPRP:CA Again - Sold 100 at C$21.48:
Quote: ENB-PP.TO
I sold my highest cost lot.
Issuer: Issuer: Enbridge Inc. (ENB). I own the common shares which was last discussed at Item # 1.S. Pared ENB - Sold 5 at $45.45 (4/4/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $66.91)
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Sold 100 ENBPRP:CA at C$20.62 (7/3/25 Post)(profit snapshot C$191) I sold my highest cost lot.
1 Year Chart as of 7/16/25:
Profit Snapshot: C$432Par Value: C$25
Coupon: Resets every 5 years at 2.50% spread to the 5 year Canadian Government Bond yield. Press Release (1/31/24) The rate calculation date is the 30th day prior to the first day of the subsequent five year reset period.
Canada 5 Year Government Bond Overview | MarketWatch
Current Coupon: 5.918% to but excluding 3/1/2029
New average cost per share: C$14.73 (300 shares)
| Snapshot after pare-Closing Price 7/16/25 |
Unrealized Gain: C$2,050 as of 7/16 close.
The average cost per share was reduced from C$15.14.
Yield at New AC: 10.04%
Computation: .05918% coupon x. C$25 par value = C$1.4795 annual dividend per share ÷ C$14.73 average cost per share = 10.044%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/15/25
More Details:
Optional Redemption: Every 5 years on the reset date, so this preferred stock is call protected until the next reset date in 2029. This limited call option distinguishes 5 year Canadian reset equity preferred stocks from the U.S. fixed-to-floating rate stocks that can be called at par anytime after the transition from the fixed to the floating rate.
Dividend: Paid quarterly and cumulative
Canada Withholding Tax = 15%
Foreign Tax: Credit or Deduction? | Charles Schwab I claim a tax credit and fill out the IRS Form 1116.
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 1 Sold 100 of 600 ENBPRP:CA at C$20.06 (5/23/24 Post){profit snapshot = C$19, selling my highest lot purchased at C$19.85, Item # 6.A. Bought 100 ENBPRP:CA at C$19.85 (10/3/24 Post)}; Item # 1.A. Sold 100 out of 400 ENBPRP:CA at C$20.20 (12/31/21 Post)(profit snapshot = C$368); Item # 4.A. Sold 200 ENBPRP at C$19.91 (3/25/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$963, contains a snapshot of a prior realized gain of US$1,458.25 converted from C$ 1,814.)
ENBPRP:CA Realized Gains to Date: +C$3,787
The tax reportable USD gain would be lower. For trades made in a foreign currency, both the purchase cost and sale proceeds are converted into USDs when made. The USD amounts will be significantly lower given the CAD/USD exchange rates.
3. Corporate Bonds Sold:
I decided to lighten up on corporate bonds maturing in the 2032-2035 range since I have become more concerned about inflation reigniting later this year and into 2026.
Assuming no interest rate suppression by the FED, and bond investors are in control of setting interest rates, the uptrend in inflation would normally result in a decline in longer term bond prices and a rise in yields.
However, it is possible that the Fed will suppress intermediate and long term rates again through a Q/E program, even when interest rates are moving higher. Recent history has proven that the FED can create enough money to buy treasuries to suppress the ten year treasury yield below the inflation rate for an extended period.
Suppressing the ten year treasury yield below the inflation rate also occurred through Fed manipulation after WWII until the Korean War. Before the Accord: U.S. Monetary-Financial Policy, 1945-51.pdf (NBER publication)
The historical distortions of market interest rates through abnormal monetary policies temporarily obscures the warning signal given by a rise in inflation that requires a different monetary approach as proven by what happened when the FED kept Q/E and ZIRP throughout 2021 and into 2022 when inflation was surging. Fiscal policy may need to be adjusted as well during a persistent rise in inflation into problematic territory that I generally define as greater than a 4% annual rate.
Wall Street braces for Treasury to try lowering 10-year yields with more buybacks. The problem? It could backfire.-MarketWatch (subscription publication).
"Profit": $103.55 (realized market discount taxed as additional interest income)
The sales are not motivated by a desire to harvest the profit but is simply due to reducing my interest rate risk, taking into account my age and financial condition. This approach is unique to me.
I will consider repurchasing these bonds when and if interest rates rise and the bond prices fall back below par value. The then existing circumstances will be evaluated to establish possible re-entry prices for purchases. For example, if inflation is accelerating too fast, and the FED does not engage in another massive Q/E program to suppress longer term rates, then the price decline below par value would need to be greater for a new purchase than what would normally occur just from a mild uptick in CPI that may level off.
This is a minor reduction. I still own 261 different corporate bonds in my Fidelity account and 66 in my Interactive Brokers account. I did not sell any bonds in my Vanguard account where I currently own 57 different corporate bonds. I do not own corporate bonds in my Schwab account. The total number of different corporate bonds currently owned is 384 after the following sales:
A. Sold 2 Southern Gas 5.15% SU Maturing on 9/15/32 at 100.803:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of the utility holding company Southern Co. (SO)
Proceeds at 100.703
Principal Amount: $2,014.06
Accrued Interest Received: $34.33
Profit Snapshot: $22.42
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/A-
YTM at 100.733 = 5%
Buy Discussion: Item # 2.J. (5/9/25 Post)
B. Sold 2 Public Service of Colorado 5.35% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 5/15/34 at 100.424:
Proceeds at 100.324 after $1 per bond commission.
Principal Amount: $2,006.58
Accrued interest by the buyer: $18.13
I am keeping 2 owned in a RI account.
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)
Profit Snapshot: $17.42
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A1/A
YTM at 100.324: 5.3%
Buy Discussion: Item # 4.G. (5/23/25)
I had 3 Public Service of Colorado first mortgage bonds mature on 5/15/25, with a realized market discount of $103.22:
I own 2 of the first mortgage bonds that mature on 6/15/28: Item # 5.G. Bought 2 Public Service of Colorado 3.7% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 6/15/28 at a Total Cost of 96.854 (2/5/25 Post)(YTM then at 4.722%)
C. Sold 2 Nextera Capital 5% SU Maturing on 7/15/32 at 100.169:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) who guarantees the notes. Prospectus
Proceeds at 100.069
Principal = $2,001.38
Accrued Interest Paid by Buyer: $.28 (one day)
I received the semiannual interest payment on 7/15/25.
Profit Snapshot: $21.38
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at 100.069: 4.99%
Buy Discussion: Item # 2.H (5/9/25 Post)
D. Sold 1 San Diego Gas & Electric 5.35% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 5/15/35 at 101.404:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Sempra (SRE)
Proceeds at 101.304
Principal: $1,013.04
Accrued Interest Paid by buyer: $9.21
Profit Snapshot: $22.39
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit ratings: A1/A
YTM at 101.404 = 5.165%
Buy Discussion: Item # 2.I. (5/2/25 Post)
E. Sold 2 Xcel Energy 5.45% Maturing on 8/15/33 at 100.747:
Issuer: Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) - Utility Holding Company
Proceeds at 100.647 after $1 per bond commission
Principal at $2012.94
Accrued Interest Paid by buyer: $46.02
Profit Snapshot: $19.94
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB
YTM at 100.747: 5.328%
Purchased discussion at Item # 3.H. (5/16/25 Post)
4. Treasury Notes Sold:
"Profit" of $53.88
I have reduced my position in treasury notes maturing in 2029 or later where the current price creates a YTM of less than 4%. The YTMs at my purchase prices would generally be close to 4.5% without checking. Item # 6.A Sold 1 T Note (7/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $29.59); Item # 8 Sold 8 T Notes (7/3/25 Post) (profit snapshots = $258.63)
Total Reduction YTD of T Notes: $12,000 in principal amount with a realized "profit" of $339.1.
A. Sold 1 T Note 4.125% Coupon Maturing on 10/31/29 at 100.4943:
Proceeds include $8.63 in accrued interest paid by the buyer.Profit Snapshot: $22.92
B. Sold 1 T Note 4.25% Coupon Maturing on 1/31/30 at 100.937:
Profit Snapshot: $12.93
Principal: $1,009.37
Accrued Interest Paid by Buyer: $19.49
C. Sold 1 Treasury Note 4.25% Coupon Maturing on 6/30/29 at 101.0424:
Principal Amount: $1,010.42
Accrued Interest Paid by Buyer: $1.96
Profit Snapshot: $18.03
5. Treasury Bill Purchases at Auction:
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 7/16/25 Auction - Fidelity and Schwab Accounts:
119 Day Bill
Matures on 11/18/25
Interest: $69.91
Investment Rate: 4.35%
B. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 7/21/25 Auction - Schwab Account:
91 Day Bills
Matures on 10/23/25
Interest: $107.18
Investment Rate: 4.345%
C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 7/21/25 Auction - Fidelity Account:
182 Day Bill
Matures on 1/26/26
Interest: $104.02
Taxable in 2026 when held to maturity.
Investment Rate: 4.261%
6. Small Ball Common Stock Sells:
A. Eliminated AROW - Sold 12 at $27.15:
Quote: Arrow Financial Corp. (AROW)Proceeds: $325.8
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: $13.55
Last Discussed: Item # 5.B. Bought 5 AROW at $25.76 (2/10/25 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.28 per share
AROW Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 5/13/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
Comparisons are to the 2024 first quarter.
E.P.S. $.38, down from $.45
"The quarter was adversely impacted by the recognition of a specific reserve of $3.75 million ($0.17 per share) related to a $15 million commercial real estate loan participation secured by properties in two office parks in upstate New York, where Arrow is a 22% participant in a $67 million multi-bank lending facility"
I do not exclude that kind of reserve, so I am not adding back $.17 to the $.38 GAAP.
NIM: 3.07%, up from 2.6% (and up from 2.85% in the 2024 4th quarter)
Efficiency Ratio: 66.52%, down from $69.54% (both too high IMO)
NPL Ratio: .56%, down from .66%
Charge off Ratio: .1%, up from .04%
Tangible Book Value per share: $22.72, up from $21.25
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Eliminated AROW - Sold 25+ at $30.11 (7/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $126.87); Item # 2.K. Eliminated AROW in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $32.7 and Item # 2.L. Eliminated AROW in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $33.15 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $121.87); Item # 1.C. Sold 15 AROW at $36.1 (2/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.99); Item # 1. Sold 52+ AROW at $37.5 (7/2/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $661.34); Item # 5.A. Sold 100 AROW at $34.7 (4/23/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $62.04)
AROW Realized Gains to Date: $1,025.72
I decided that I want a lower entry point and will consider restarting a position at less than $25 and then average down from that point.
B. Pared IVZ - Sold 5 at $17.08:
Quote: INVESCO Ltd. (IVZ)Proceeds: $85.43
IVZ is a global investment management company.
Generally, earnings benefit by a growth in assets under management (AUM) and increases in the value of managed assets.
IVZ Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I sold my highest cost 5 shares.
Profit Snapshot: $17.53
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Pared IVZ - Sold 10 at $17.82 - Highest Cost Lot (12/30/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $36.15)
Average cost per share remaining shares: $12.86 (20 shares)
![]() |
| Snapshot Intraday on 7/17/25 after pare |
The average cost per share was reduced from $13.01.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share, last raised from $.205 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment.
IVZ Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
This website provides data on the average annual return with and without dividends reinvested. DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel Starting on 10/4/23 through 7/17/25, using closing prices only, the annual average total return of IVZ with dividends reinvested was 18.37% and $17.85% without reinvestment.
Yield at $12.86: 6.532%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/14/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25)
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
$1.844+ trillion in AUM with an increase of $17.6B in the quarter "primarily driven by ETFs and Index, Fundamental Fixed Income, and China JV & India"
E.P.S. $.38, up from $.31 in the 2024 first quarter
Adjusted E.P.S. $.44, up from $.33
Reconciliation:
Some Buy Discussions: Item # 1.G. Added to IVZ - Bought 5 at $12.55 (10/28/23 Post); Item # 1.D. Added to IVZ - Bought 5 at $13.2; 5 at $12.95; 5 at $12.75 (10/21/23 Post); Item # 1.H. Added to IVZ - Bought 5 at $13.58 (10/7/23 Post)
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 4.C. Eliminated IVZ - Sold 20 at $19.5 (11/22/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.66); Item # 1.E. Eliminated IVZ in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $18.91 (2/5/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $105.91); Item # 1.A. Sold 83+ at $17.3-Schwab Account and Item # 1.B. Sold 71+ IVZ in Fidelity Taxable Account at $17.39 (1/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $330.88)
Price Pop on 7/18/25: One day after my pare, the stock popped on 7/18, closing up $2.64 or 15.68%:
| Price as of Close on 7/18/25 |
Based on a very preliminary review, IVZ is only replacing the trustee but will continue to pay a licensing fee to Nasdaq, the index provider. The payment will be sourced out of the advisory fee that INZ would receive. When approved by shareholders, the IVZ advisory fee would be .18%, down from the current .2% expense ratio. Nasdaq Acknowledges Invesco QQQ Trust's Preliminary Proxy and Proposals | Nasdaq
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (7/18/25): 3 stars with a fair value of $17.5. The Morningstar analyst estimates that the trustee change will add $.12 per share in annual earnings. Based on the wording of the report, the analyst does not appear the index provider's cut will change and will remain in the current range.
Argus (4/22/25): Buy with a target price of $17
S&P (7/18/25): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $23, raised by $6 on 7/18/25. It is not crystal clear to me how much additional IVZ per share income from the QQQ structure change this analyst is forecasting but apparently it is more than $.12 per share annually.
IVZ Realized Gains to Date: $560.13
Owned IVZ Finance SU Bond: 4 of the 3.75% SU maturing on 1/15/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org (rated at A3/BBB+, guaranteed by Invesco, Prospectus)
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Bought 2 Invesco Finance 3.75% SU Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 98.986 (12/5/24 Post) YTM then at 4.675%.
I have not yet replaced the 4 that will mature next January.
2024 Matured Invesco Finance SU Bond (IB Account):
Realized Market Discount: $32.1
C. Eliminated Duplicate Position in GLQ - Sold 39 at $7.18:
Quote: Clough Global Equity Fund Overview - Leveraged Long-Short Stock CEF
Proceeds: $279.68
Sponsor's website: Clough Investment Solutions
Total Holdings: 67
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 4/30/25 List of holding is at pages 17-18. Leverage is discussed at pages 39-40, Note 6. The average borrowing for the 6 month period ending in April was at $36M. The interest rate on borrowed funds was at 5.13% as of 4/30/25. Total assets, which includes securities bought with borrowed money, was at $207.404+M. Using that asset number, the leverage ratio was at 17.46%.
Profit Snapshot: $38.15
Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Added to CLQ - Bought 10 at $6.78 (8/29/24 Post); Item # G. Added to GLQ - Bought 10 at $6.49 (3/28/24 Post); Item # 3.A. Added to GLQ - Bought 5 at $5.2 (11/4/23 Post)
Dividend: Monthly at $.065 per share ($.78 annually)
ROC Supported
Yield at $7.18 = 10.85%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/18/25 (sold on the ex dividend day)
Next Ex Dividend: 8/8/25
Data Date of 7/18/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $8.16
Closing Market Price: $7.17
Discount: -12.13%
Average 3 year discount: 13.32%
Sourced: GLQ - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)
Goal: Monthly income generation with any profit on the shares before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis. This goal was met since the proceeds from selling the 39 shares ($279.68) was greater than the original cost of $253.91. To calculate the total return, I would need to reduce the $38.15 realized gain to $25.77 and then add the dividend total.
D. Eliminated ON - Sold 5 at $60.8:
Quote: ON Semiconductor Corp. (ON)
Proceeds: $304.2
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Website: Intelligent Power and Sensing Technologies | onsemi
ON Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
ON SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
Profit Snapshot: Net of $6.82
Last Discussed: Item # 1.K. Bought 1 ON at $55.55 (1/15/25 Post); Item # 1.I. Started ON as a Lotto - Bought 1 at $63.32; 1 at $60.45; 1 at $59.62; 1 at $58.31 (1/9/25 Post)
Dividend: None and none expected.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
After reviewing this report, I made a decision to liquidate the position when and if the sales price would generate a profit.
Comparisons are to the 2024 first quarter.
GAAP E.P.S. ($1.15), down from $1.04
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $.55, down from $1.08
Reconciliation:
Revenues: $1.4457B, down from $1.862.7B
2025 Second Quarter Guidance:
Consider to Restart Price: <$50
I may lower that re-entry price to a significantly lower number based on how tariffs impact revenues generated by ON's customers, particularly in the automobile industry.
7. Bond ETFs:
Proceeds: $947.11
I have discussed many times why I do not like bond ETFs. Nonetheless, I will buy some in my Schwab account where idle funds held in a sweep account pay only .05%. I view these ETFs to be a short term alternative to keeping funds in the Schwab sweep account.
The general idea is to avoid owning them for more than 1 year and to make an effort to sell before there is an uptrend in interest rates.
Intermediate and long term total returns for bond funds are generally highly unsatisfactory.
The term bond funds do allow investors to have some limited control over interest rate risk. Those funds own bonds that mature in the same year. The fund will distribute the proceeds usually sometime in December of the target maturity year.
It helps when the sponsor provides the weighted average price of the bonds owned in a target maturity bond fund. I would prefer to buy when the weighted average price is below par value.
I will be deploying the proceeds into equity REIT stocks where I am averaging down in this account.
For anyone owning or considering a purchase of a bond fund, I would recommend looking at the 1, 3, 5, and 10 return numbers that can be accessed by non-subscribers at Morningstar.
IEF – Performance – iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Morningstar
LQD – Performance – iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bd ETF | Morningstar
TLT – Performance – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Morningstar
MUB – Performance – iShares National Municipal Bond ETF | MorningstarA. Eliminated SCHI - Sold 18 at $22.58:
Quote: Schwab 5-10 Year Corporate Bond ETF Overview
Proceeds: $406.35
Profit Snapshot: $6.84
As of 6/30/25:
Weighted average maturity 7.32 years
Effective Duration: 6.01 years
Holdings: 2233
Expense ratio: .03%
Dividends: Paid monthly at a variable rate
SCHI Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 7/1/25
Marketwatch has the yield at 5.04% based on the 7/18/25 closing price of $22.58
I discussed this ETF in a YT video published about 1 year ago: Yield Spreads Treasuries and Corporate Bond ETF SCHI - YouTube
B. Eliminated IBDV - Sold 12 at $21.86:
Quote: iShares iBonds Dec 2030 Term Corporate ETF Overview
Proceeds: $262.38
Sponsor's website: iShares® iBonds® Dec 2030 Term Corporate ETF | IBDV
Expense Ratio: .1%
Profit Snapshot: $5.04
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Bought 10 IBDV at $21.48 (7/26/24 Post)
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate.
Yield: Marketwatch has the yield at 4.62% at the $21.85 closing price on 7/19/25.
Last Ex Dividend: 7/1/25
C. Eliminated IBDU - Sold 12 at $23.24:
Quote: iShares iBonds December 2029 Term Corporate ETF OverviewThe fund will own bonds maturing in 2029.
Proceeds: 278.38
Sponsor's website:
IBDU Page at Morningstar (not rated)
Expense Ratio: .10%
Profit Snapshot: $4.5
Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Bought 10 IBDU at $22.88 (7/26/24 Post)
Dividends: Paid monthly at a variable rate
Last 12 Dividends through July: $1.097
Yield at Sales Price: 4.722%
Yield at AC per share: 4.797%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/1/25
8. Municipal Bonds:
I generate close to $8,000 per year in federally tax exempt income by owning municipal bonds. I own them in my Fidelity, Vanguard and Schwab accounts.
Most of the municipal bonds that I currently own were bought at a time when the tax exempt yields on AA or better rated bonds were higher than the taxable treasury yields for similar maturities. When that occurs, which is rare, I will buy them. One reason is that I want to suppress as much as possible moving into a higher tax bracket.
I live in Tennessee that does not have a state income tax. Consequently, it does not make any difference to me whether I own tax exempt bonds issued by governments in Tennessee or some other state. I am familiar with the Tennessee tax exempt bond issuers, so that is what I own. If I lived in a state with an income tax, I would focus on tax exempt issuers from that state.
Municipal bonds are available only in 5 bond lots and increments thereof. Par value is $1,000. Interest is paid semiannually. All of my owned tax exempt bonds pay interest on the 1st day of a month. Call protection is generally for 10 years after issuance. When call protection expires, the issuer may redeem at par value + accrued and unpaid interest. There are no make whole provisions in any municipal bond that I own.
The values assigned to the municipal bonds in my brokerage accounts originate from third party pricing services. This makes sense in the municipal bond market since most of the bonds have almost no trading volume, so there is no market price most of the time.
Invariably the municipal bonds are priced significantly below fair value by the third party pricing services. Bond pricing becomes accurate only when the bond is about to mature or are about to be redeemed early at par value.
A case in point is this bond that the issuer will redeem at par value on 9/1/25:
![]() |
| Third Party Price as of 7/18/25 |
A few days prior to the redemption notice for this bond, someone purchased several at less than 90:
The yields shown in the preceding snapshot are yields-to-maturity in 2038. The actual YTM will be substantially higher when the bonds are redeemed on 9/1/25.
Generally, a pricing service would assign around a 88-91 value to a bond maturing in 2035-2040 time frame with a similar coupon and credit rating (AA+). The price within that range would depend in part on market interest rates when valued.
This is an excerpt from my 6/30/25 Fidelity Statement that had this bond priced at 89.709:
I also own an identically rated municipal bond with a 3.375% coupon that matures on 6/1/38 that was priced at 89.684 as of 7/18.
The "profit" that I will realize when this Harpeth Valley Utility District bond is redeemed is not classified as a long term capital gain but as ordinary income under the IRS de minimis rule which I discussed in recent comments here. See also, Are Municipal Bonds Tax Free? | Charles Schwab
I received notice from Fidelity of this bond redemption on 7/19. I confirmed it by going to the Emma for this bond, clicking the "Disclosure Documents" tab and then clicking "Notice of Intent to Issue Refunding Bonds dated 7/16/25":
I will also lose on 9/1/25, to an early redemption, 5 City of Chattanooga, Tennessee 4% Electric Revenue Bonds maturing on 9/1/30.
I would estimate that the corporate and municipal bonds that I own are valued by third party pricing services at $8K-$10K lower than fair market value. I will frequently own the same corporate bond in more than 1 account and the third party pricing will be different.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.

















%202029%20+$22.92%20.png)



%202029%20+$18.03%20.png)
%2011:18:25.png)
%2011:18:25%20.png)




















I published a YouTube video earlier this morning that discusses why I believe inflation will start to trend higher soon and how that impacts my current duration in my bond portfolio which is close to 3 years.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBVgArUvBbk&t=322s
I discuss in the comment section to that video how I can be right about inflation rising, which normally would cause longer term bond prices to go down and yields up when the market is setting rates, but am not rewarded by being able to buy bonds with higher coupons. That scenario has happened in the past when the FED implements extraordinary monetary policies like Q/E and ZIRP that suppress interest rates below the inflation rate for an extended period of time.
It's going to be a long 1 1/2 years until the midterms.
ReplyDeleteA friend reminded me that US survived the civil war. Maybe we'll survive this. That's the most optimistic stance I've heard.
Land: There are presently no restraints on Trump, including the Supreme Court.
ReplyDeleteIf the Democrats regain control over the House, they will probably impeach Trump again, but that will only make his supporters angry with no chance of a conviction in the Senate no matter what he does.
No legislation passed by democrats without Trump's support can become law, even if the Senate and House have Democratic majorities, since Trump will simply veto any bill and there will be insufficient votes to override the veto.
So, in effect, it is 3 1/2 more years with no effective restraint on Trump other than the republicans being unable to pass legislation that Trump wants when and if the democrats are in control of Congress which may only happen in the House and that might require a recession and much higher inflation after the republicans gerrymandered several more incumbent democrats out of a job.
Trump is legislating through Executive Orders so even that impediment can be largely overcome.
I doubt there has ever been a case when the number 2 person at the DOJ interviews a witness which happened today with Todd Blanche, Trump's former attorney, interviewing Ghislaine Maxwell who is serving 20 years for sex trafficking. He will continue the interview tomorrow. Maxwell is probably angling for some kind of deal, either a pardon or a commuted sentence, in exchange for her testimony. Blanche is trying to evaluate whether she will exonerate Trump and possibly make allegations against some well known democrats. If that is what he is doing, he is not acting on behalf of the DOJ or the United States, but as Trump's personal attorney. These people may not be smart enough to realize that Trump will be burned more, his Epstein problem made far worse, by giving clemency to Maxwell in exchange for testimony that exonerates him. Nothing could be more toxic to Trump now then making a deal with Maxwell that gets her out of prison.
https://www.newsweek.com/ghislaine-maxwell-donald-trump-doj-epstein-todd-blanche-2103770
I had to delete my prior comment on this subject since I hit the publish tab before I finished writing it.
ReplyDeleteI published a YT video earlier today that discusses another statement made by Trump on 7/25 defending the weak dollar which he said only a dumb President would allow happen on 7/18. I also discuss on the exchange rates into USDs impact the value of my investments, inflation and GAAP reported earnings.
I will discuss adding 5 shares in COLB just before its earnings release.
The market initially had a weak positive response yesterday and then warmed to it as the day progressed. The stock closed up $1.47 or 6.3%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/colb
What information caused the price surge surge. I would attribute the rise to a rise in net interest margin, an increase in E.P.S., an increase in net interest income, and a decline in the cost of deposits as yields on loans rose.
Comparisons are to the 2024 second quarter.
GAAP E.P.S. $.73, up from $.57
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $.76, up from $.67
NIM: 3.75%, up from 3.56%
Net Interest Income: $447.552M, up from $428.434M
Cost of interest bearing deposits: 2.52%, down from 2.97%
Cost of interest bearing liabilities: 2.78%, down from 3.31%
SEC Filing:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/887343/000088734325000221/colb-20250630ex991earnings.htm
The rise in the COLB price caused a similar price spike in PPBI that is in the process of being acquired by COLB in an all stock merger. I own 50 PPBI shares.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ppbi?mod=search_symbol
Link to YT Video published earlier today discussing foreign exchange:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAekiy3P2Sc
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/07/colb-doc-faln-fbrt-gmab-good-gty-hr-hzo.html